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Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, our show about making

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Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Khannikova.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. Today on the show, we're going

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Speaker 2: to be talking about the topic that we always talk about,

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Speaker 2: should Democrats Panic? About the polls and the election which

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Speaker 2: is now less than two weeks away. And then we'll

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Speaker 2: speak with Daryl Morey, who is the president of basketball

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Speaker 2: operations for the Philadelphia seventy six ers and one of

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Speaker 2: the og stat nerds that made it big in professional sports.

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Speaker 2: I think you really like this interview.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking forward to that conversation. But before we

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Speaker 1: get to that, let's talk some politics.

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Speaker 2: So we're in week what is it, week number two

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Speaker 2: or three of Should Democrats Panic? I think the panic

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Speaker 2: meter has gone up a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Actually, yeah, I think so too. Obviously, still a toss up,

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Speaker 1: but it's not like we're seeing a surge or strong

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Speaker 1: results or anything like that.

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Speaker 2: But look, there are toss ups, and there are tossups. Maria,

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Speaker 2: would you rather have para jacks or Ace king off suit.

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Speaker 1: It's close, Yeah, it's close. It's close.

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Speaker 2: Right In the pair of jacks, it wins like fifty

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Speaker 2: five percent of the time, I think fifty six.

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Speaker 1: No, I think I think I'd always go for the pair.

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Speaker 1: That's just me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I want the fifty six. I mean Trump is

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Speaker 2: We're taping this on Tuesday, early afternoon. The latest Silver

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Speaker 2: Bulletin forecast is Trump with a fifty three percent chance

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Speaker 2: of winning the electoral college, Harris forty seven percent. So

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Speaker 2: that is very close. But you know, a couple weeks

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Speaker 2: ago we have the opposite situation, where was Harris with

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Speaker 2: fifty three or fifty five percent. You have seen some

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Speaker 2: fairly consistent shifts in national polls where Harris led by

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Speaker 2: as much as three or three and a half points.

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Speaker 2: It's down to about a point and a half or

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Speaker 2: two points now, and an election is close, a one

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Speaker 2: one and a half point swing makes a difference. But again,

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Speaker 2: the bare case for Harris is that like she had

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Speaker 2: these various events that kind of temporarily inflated her numbers, denomination,

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Speaker 2: the convention, and the debate, and without that, the gravity

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Speaker 2: kind of drags her down to having this very narrow

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Speaker 2: national lead, which is maybe not enough in the electoral college.

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Speaker 2: Uh Michigan was coonstin Pennsylvania are now basically tied before

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Speaker 2: they had shown small Harris leads you can put lead

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Speaker 2: in scarepute if you want, but of a point or

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Speaker 2: two points, whereas Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Nevada, Nevada

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Speaker 2: are also very close, but except for Nevada, probably leaning

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Speaker 2: toward Trump by a point or two and so and so.

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Speaker 2: It just makes Harris's path incrementally, incrementally a tiny bit

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Speaker 2: more difficult than Trump's. Yeah, a couple extra outs. Basically, yeah,

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Speaker 2: for sure.

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Speaker 1: I just voted, by the way, I just voted in Nevada,

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Speaker 1: so we've got we've got my swing vote working for

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Speaker 1: Clark County.

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Speaker 2: In Nevada. The early voting data based on party registration, Now,

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Speaker 2: we don't know what happens with unaffiliated voters. We don't

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Speaker 2: know how much votes being cannibalized from election day. We

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Speaker 2: don't even know that Republican registries are voting Republican. There

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Speaker 2: can be some Nikki Haley vote, I guess, I don't know,

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Speaker 2: let's say, But so far, through a few days of this,

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Speaker 2: there's actually a slight GOP edge and early voting in Nevada.

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Speaker 2: That's one of the few states where where it has

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Speaker 2: been more reliable in the past. Look, I'm ninety eight

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Speaker 2: percent of what you hear about early voting I would

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Speaker 2: chuck out. But have gotten kind of bad for Democrats.

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Speaker 2: The polls have gotten worse, and I think, on the

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Speaker 2: one hand, this can be exaggerated. If you cross the

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Speaker 2: line from fifty two percent to forty eight percent, it

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Speaker 2: feels like a big deal. On the other hand, I

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Speaker 2: know there are a couple of posts up at the

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Speaker 2: newsletter recently about you know, what is Harris's closing message

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Speaker 2: in the final two weeks ago, Like what is it?

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Speaker 2: What do you think you're closing messages?

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Speaker 1: You know, I just read your post about that and okay, biased,

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Speaker 1: Yeah you did bias me because I just read it

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Speaker 1: right before we started taping this. So for people who

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Speaker 1: have not read your newsletter, you drew a really interesting

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Speaker 1: contrast between Harris and Obama, which I actually thought was

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Speaker 1: really thought provoking, because Obama's messaging was much more a

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Speaker 1: call to action, like this is where we stand for,

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Speaker 1: this is kind of you know this, this is what

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Speaker 1: I'm going to do, and this is what I need

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Speaker 1: you to do right now, and Harris's is just like

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Speaker 1: fourteen days to go, let's go.

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Speaker 2: Okay, do you write enough things to say it's fucking election.

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Speaker 1: So so you know, fourteen days to go, Yeah, okay,

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Speaker 1: let's go.

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Speaker 2: Democrats still have more money in total, Harris isn't raising

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Speaker 2: record amounts. Maybe it's close to record. I'm not gonna

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Speaker 2: worry about inflation adjustments either way, she's raising a shit

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Speaker 2: ton of money.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a very good scientific term.

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Speaker 2: And they're usually a little bit more efficient with their

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Speaker 2: adviys they buy ads earlier and so so money is

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Speaker 2: not particularly the problem.

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Speaker 1: No, but there are definitely, you know, there are messages

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Speaker 1: that I think really matter and resonate with people like abortion,

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Speaker 1: you know, democracy, right, Like there are key words that

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Speaker 1: we can be using, and we have you know, election

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Speaker 1: tampering from Elon Musk, Like there are things like you know,

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Speaker 1: you have the you have the Republicans calling out Democrats

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Speaker 1: all the time, and I know that as you say, like,

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Speaker 1: don't want to antagonize, but like to fourteen days, right,

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Speaker 1: if that's your message, that use those damn fourteen days

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Speaker 1: to like, you know, to do everything you can to

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Speaker 1: get those swing states. And man, I wonder like inside

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Speaker 1: that campaign, I'm just looking at some New York Times

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Speaker 1: and other headlines this morning being like Shapiro's doing his best.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, inside the campaign, are there any people being like, fuck,

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Speaker 1: we really should have got with Shapiro.

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Speaker 2: Well, they were kind of doubling down on this likability

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Speaker 2: vibes factor with Walls, right, and now you see, by

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Speaker 2: the way, when all this was happening in the summer,

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Speaker 2: then it seems like things were evolving incredibly rapidly, and

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Speaker 2: it's hard to see even for me. You know, at

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Speaker 2: some point I was like, oh, maybe these vibes are working.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if there's a theme of like my newslayer

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Speaker 2: this year, it's that Democrats face a real uphill battle

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Speaker 2: in the selection, and it's not fake polls or anything else.

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Speaker 2: Biden's age, on top of everything else, made it nearly impossible,

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Speaker 2: whereas Harris is fifty to fifty ish or Ace King

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Speaker 2: against Jack Jack. But it's a difficult race to win

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Speaker 2: when you're kind of like running away from the incumbent,

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Speaker 2: but can't really say that explicitly. Maybe you just fucking

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Speaker 2: throw Joe Biden under the bus, right, I'd like, this

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Speaker 2: motherfucker undermine me. This motherfucker was way too old. You

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Speaker 2: fucked it. The debates I'm good at debates unlike him,

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Speaker 2: So a reduced number of debates. Yeah, gave me the

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Speaker 2: fucking gave me the fucking border to undermine me.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I think that our panic meter P panic,

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Speaker 1: pea panic is.

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Speaker 2: Uh is the silver bulletin for it a fifty three

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Speaker 2: percent panic. If I had to make a bullish case

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Speaker 2: for Harris right then I'd say the following. I'd say that, uh,

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Speaker 2: First of all, vibes don't really mean anything, and if anything,

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Speaker 2: they're kind of a contrarian indicator. You saw that a

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Speaker 2: little bit in twenty twenty two where the bull showed

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Speaker 2: a close race and there was all this talk about

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Speaker 2: like a red wave. You know, I'd say she'd probably

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Speaker 2: have a better turnout operation and have more money in

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Speaker 2: the final two weeks here. You know, I'd say, I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's hard to make the case she's a favorite, you

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Speaker 2: know what I mean, It's easy to make the case

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Speaker 2: that it's still a toss up. I missed what the

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Speaker 2: models say basically, right, But maybe yeah, maybe I'd say, like,

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Speaker 2: maybe I'd say, yeah, you have some enthusiasm advantage in

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Speaker 2: the polls for Republicans, and people are just kind of

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Speaker 2: psycking themselves out a little bit. But she's never really

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Speaker 2: had like that much of a lead the Electoral College

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Speaker 2: in this point, in this whole campaign is the issue

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Speaker 2: she's never really clearly pulled ahead.

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Speaker 1: I think that's absolutely true. And if we go back

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Speaker 1: to our poker Jacks versus Ace King, I think that's

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Speaker 1: actually a pretty good metaphor, like she needs to hit

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Speaker 1: her ace or her King, and all Trump needs to

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Speaker 1: do is avoid her outs, right, like he needs to

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Speaker 1: avoid those cards. And so it's that's that's why you'd

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Speaker 1: rather have the fifty six percent.

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Speaker 2: And now we're back with Darryl Morey, who, as we said,

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Speaker 2: is the president of basketball operations for the Philadelphia seventy

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Speaker 2: six ers. The NBA season is starting this week, so

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Speaker 2: I'm looking forward to this chat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm really excited for this conversation. Nate and I

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Speaker 1: have both known Darren for a while, and I said, Darryl.

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Speaker 2: He said, let's let's let's good to us. I use

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Speaker 2: a replay challenge.

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Speaker 3: I thought, I thought you were doing really well, Maureen,

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Speaker 3: and then I.

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Speaker 1: Sucked it all up. All right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So first question, I want to make a deal here, Darryl,

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Speaker 2: if you give me your NBA Championship pick which teams

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Speaker 2: are in the finals and who wins. I'll give you

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Speaker 2: my election pick. Okay, okay, all right, Oh.

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Speaker 1: My god, and I and I am the lucky person

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Speaker 1: who gets to hear this for the first time before

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Speaker 1: anyone else. This is amazing.

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Speaker 3: No, I think I think that's great. I mean, obviously

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Speaker 3: the Philadelphia seventy six ers on the on the east side,

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Speaker 3: and I think I'll I'll jump in and just go

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Speaker 3: with Oklahoma City.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I don't.

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Speaker 3: I don't feel like, uh, that's sort of a boring pick.

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Speaker 3: But they they have so many assets. They have so

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Speaker 3: many assets. Even if they're they're close, they're going to

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Speaker 3: put it over the top with then you too.

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Speaker 2: So so my election pick is.

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Speaker 4: So cheated. Okay.

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Speaker 1: I knew we Daryl, We should have known that it

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Speaker 1: was too good to be true. He was never actually

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Speaker 1: going to deliver on that. He was always going to.

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Speaker 4: Yeah exactly.

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Speaker 1: I was like, well, we finally get Nate to commit.

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Speaker 3: No, I'm excited to be on because you guys are

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Speaker 3: all about decision making.

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Speaker 4: That's the only thing I do. So I'm on.

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Speaker 3: I'm on twenty twenty two years. I think I think

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Speaker 3: that's right. Yeah, of just making decisions for teams.

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Speaker 2: So for people who don't know you are a true Varian,

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Speaker 2: to use a term from the book Gerald, like you

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Speaker 2: even play. I mean you're really competitive and you like analytics,

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Speaker 2: but you really want to win.

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Speaker 4: I just like, yeah, yeah, exactly exactly.

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Speaker 1: I think I think that's a motivation that we can

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Speaker 1: we can all relate to.

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Speaker 4: It's funny because of you, and thank you God, Maria. Sorry,

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Speaker 4: no no.

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Speaker 1: I was giving a talk in Miami at uh at

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Speaker 1: a conference where where there were a lot of people

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Speaker 1: who were very into analytics, and we were talking about,

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Speaker 1: you know, different strategies and all of this, and I

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Speaker 1: was like, you know what, but like the bottom line

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Speaker 1: is like I love poker, but like I want to

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Speaker 1: fucking win, right exactly.

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Speaker 4: You guys that.

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Speaker 3: Congratsar on the brace. You're you're you're one up on Nate.

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Speaker 3: As far as I know, I'm zero.

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Speaker 2: So it's not hard to thank you so much. Darryl Darresl,

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Speaker 2: I've played poker against you and two or three times

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Speaker 2: or something. Darryl, I'm just gonna tell people has very

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Speaker 2: bad chip etiquette. You're supposed to stack your chips and

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Speaker 2: piles of twenty twenty. Absolutely, if you don't do that,

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Speaker 2: that's actually kind of a disadvance of the players. I

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Speaker 2: can't see any chips you have.

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Speaker 1: But assets, Daryl, I like you so much.

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Speaker 4: Don't know.

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Speaker 2: I'm totally like if a player is seen as good

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Speaker 2: for the game, there might be less requests.

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Speaker 3: No, I sadly I haven't put the time into poker,

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Speaker 3: and I get invited to a lot of games and

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure why.

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Speaker 4: Maybe because I don't win very often.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I will say though, Maria, you're you're a pro,

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Speaker 3: so's Nate. I try and at least let my ego.

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Speaker 3: Given the fact that I don't win poker a lot,

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Speaker 3: I handle it by pointing out them usually playing with

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Speaker 3: two or three pros, and it doesn't seem very fair.

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Speaker 1: If you guys, Absolutely not fair, And I promise I'll

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Speaker 1: be nice to you if you let me play with.

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Speaker 4: You definitely want me in your game area, that's for sure.

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Speaker 2: You are very aggressive.

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Speaker 4: Do you use.

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Speaker 2: Game theory in any way in decision making?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: So, I mean probably the easiest one to talk through

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Speaker 3: is like the two for one is a pretty easy

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Speaker 3: sort of game theory problem. No one's really gotten to

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Speaker 3: the extreme game theory. But it's coming. It's definitely coming.

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Speaker 3: So two for one, just for your audience. There's a

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Speaker 3: twenty four second shot clock in the NBA. If you

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Speaker 3: have the ball, let's say forty seconds or thirty five

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Speaker 3: to forty seconds. You can either run your normal offense

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Speaker 3: and get a shot in twenty seconds and now there's

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Speaker 3: fifteen remaining, so you get one shot and they get

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Speaker 3: one shot, and or you can take a shot quickly

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Speaker 3: and then the other team only it's went for second,

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Speaker 3: so you'll get the ball back.

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Speaker 4: Well, it turns out in thousands of thousands of.

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Speaker 3: Trials at every level of basketball, this is going to

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Speaker 3: shock your audience, which I'm sure is pretty sophisticated. Two

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Speaker 3: shots are better than one shot. I know, I know

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Speaker 3: that will surprise people. But even even even materially worse,

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Speaker 3: two shots are better than one shot. There are some

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Speaker 3: exceptions in the fourth quarter and things like that, but

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Speaker 3: but in the first three quarters it's pretty straightforward. Well, obviously,

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Speaker 3: if the other team says, okay, I'm gonna shoot such

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Speaker 3: that I force you into the two for one, the

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Speaker 3: other side isn't just this blod you know, undynamic opponent,

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Speaker 3: they can then shoot even faster, faster back at you.

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Speaker 3: In fact, the Utah Jazz when Jerry Sloan was there,

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Speaker 3: would do this more than any team.

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Speaker 4: That I can recall. And then so now.

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Speaker 3: There's there's a whole set of other strategies that if

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Speaker 3: they somehow manipulate the clock better than you, you can

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Speaker 3: then regenerate the two for one like fouling them or

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Speaker 3: being super aggressive to speed up their offense.

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Speaker 4: There's a whole set of things. So that's just one

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Speaker 4: off the top.

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Speaker 3: Obviously, there's game theory and in in game in terms

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Speaker 3: of like how do you react to you know, they

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Speaker 3: put five out shooting lineups on the floor, how do

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Speaker 3: you guard that?

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Speaker 1: Things like that, So, and what about when you're making

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Speaker 1: roster decisions, when you when you're thinking about trading, and

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Speaker 1: when you actually have to think about yourself as one

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Speaker 1: player in a multiplayer game because there are other yous

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Speaker 1: out there who are responsible for other teams who are

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Speaker 1: going to be making different moves and responding to you.

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Speaker 1: So how do you think about it off the court

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Speaker 1: in that kind of that metagame?

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Speaker 3: That's right, and it's a heavily repeating game because you know,

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Speaker 3: it's the same thirty teams. What's really interesting is it's

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Speaker 3: a heavily repeating game, but they can replace the key

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Speaker 3: decision maker, So it's actually a repeating game at the

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Speaker 3: ownership level more than it is at my level, where

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Speaker 3: people can get fired. So there have been such sort

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Speaker 3: of these famous examples of people, you know, making future

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Speaker 3: promises or things like that that they then try to

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Speaker 3: duck out of and things like that. So, yeah, we're

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Speaker 3: in a repeating game that can work to advantage if

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Speaker 3: you treated as such. Again, your audience probably probably pretty

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Speaker 3: familiar with like whether non repeating or repeating game type differences.

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Speaker 2: So so NBA teams place an extremely high premium on

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Speaker 2: superstar talent, especially in the short term. You know, the

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Speaker 2: New York Knicks. What they give up for bridges like

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Speaker 2: four or five first round picks and he's a good player,

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Speaker 2: but probably the third best player on a contending team.

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Speaker 2: Are gms too short term focused because of the incentive issue,

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Speaker 2: or are like analytics nerds doing the math wrong and saying, actually,

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Speaker 2: these draft picks are not that valuable, and superstars are

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Speaker 2: very valuable because if you run it through some model,

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Speaker 2: it's like, okay, well, the draft picks worth like, you know,

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Speaker 2: twenty five million dollars a year in excess returns, and

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Speaker 2: Bridges is underpaid by ten million, And I don't know,

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Speaker 2: you know what I'm saying.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think teams are basically wrong at both extremes.

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Speaker 3: So they're both not aggressively long term enough. You probably

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Speaker 3: like if you actually run the math and you just

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Speaker 3: say that you're optimizing you know, p you guys talked

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Speaker 3: about p doom on your list the p P Championship

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Speaker 3: over three years, if you actually were just optimizing that variable,

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Speaker 3: and I can promise you no team actually does do

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Speaker 3: that really like twenty something like twenty four of the

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Speaker 3: team should be fully rebuilding, just long term every year,

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Speaker 3: because if you don't have a top five player, your

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Speaker 3: odds of PEA Championship are extremely low. So it's so

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Speaker 3: I would say, you know, that's sort of the first thing.

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Speaker 4: The second thing.

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Speaker 3: I just just wanted to set up the for people

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Speaker 3: to quite understand why the superstars are so important and

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Speaker 3: why it's important to sort of save your assets for

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Speaker 3: those moves. I think the easiest way I describe it

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Speaker 3: as take show heyo Tani, you know, the best hitter

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Speaker 3: in baseball, now, when show heo Tany hits a home

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Speaker 3: run against the Mets, he then has to wait eight

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Speaker 3: more times before he gets to hit again. Basketball is

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Speaker 3: like show Heyo Tany. He comes on the floor, hits

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Speaker 3: a three, and then when he comes on the floor

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Speaker 3: again and he goes like, I'm still the best player,

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Speaker 3: so I'm shooting again. So just imagine show Heo Tany

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Speaker 3: being able to hit every single time with sho heyo

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Speaker 3: Tiny's on the base. So that's what you can do

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Speaker 3: in basketball. It's actually gotten worse lately, and this will

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Speaker 3: be a little bit for the NBA nerds, but because

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Speaker 3: a lot of these players who are so great can

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Speaker 3: only be guarded by switching, pick and roll. So pick

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Speaker 3: and roll is one of the staples of our sport. Basically,

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Speaker 3: someone knocks your man off from guarding you.

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Speaker 4: Simple. The easiest way to guard that, but one.

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Speaker 3: That hadn't been used because you can end up with

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Speaker 3: seven feet people on six foot people is you just

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Speaker 3: switch the screen and that the person who gets hit

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Speaker 3: stays with the guy that they were hit on and

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Speaker 3: the other person switches. So the smart NBA players you know,

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Speaker 3: see that now and they they can basically screen and

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Speaker 3: decide who guards them. So now imagine show heyo, Tony

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Speaker 3: not only bats every time he's up, he gets to

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Speaker 3: select the pitcher on the other team he gets to

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Speaker 3: go against every time down the floor. So and now

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Speaker 3: you understand why you know someone like Lebron James can

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Speaker 3: at his peak be worth thirty, like close to thirty

361
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Speaker 3: wins on eighty two games, like an insane impact that

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Speaker 3: is not even closely replicated in any other sport. So

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Speaker 3: back back to original question, Nate, which now I feel

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Speaker 3: like I've gone far afield.

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Speaker 4: But it's a podcast.

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Speaker 1: The entire is that, how it works, how we're it

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Speaker 1: is it is.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that did I answer your original question?

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Speaker 2: I feel like I didn't, Well, because you're famous for

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Speaker 2: having this kind of in fantasy basically called the stars

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Speaker 2: and scrubs yep. Approach, Like not to denigrate the back

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Speaker 2: half of the current seventy six ers roster, but like

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Speaker 2: they're all they're all a minimum, salaries are just barely

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Speaker 2: above minimum. Is that partly because you think that you

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Speaker 2: can actually get the average talent instead of replacement level talent?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think that becomes a linear This is

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Speaker 3: the this is the geek podcast, so I can geek

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Speaker 3: out of it. It becomes a linear it becomes a

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Speaker 3: linear programming problem. So the most efficient spending in the

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Speaker 3: league are on minimums and draft picks who are playing

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Speaker 3: above their above their weight, essentially where you can they

382
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Speaker 3: can be worth double or triple while you're paying them.

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Speaker 3: The problem is you can only put about eight players

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Speaker 3: on the floor, so you can't actually fully capture that efficiency.

385
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Speaker 3: Like if I could put sixty draft picks or minimum

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Speaker 3: players that I've carefully selected that are worth more than

387
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Speaker 3: I'm paying them, I could, and I could do that,

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Speaker 3: I could win the game. But unfortunately you're only allowed

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Speaker 3: to put five on the floor at a time, and

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Speaker 3: only really eight even play, usually especially in a playoff series.

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Speaker 3: So when you look at the how do you like

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Speaker 3: generate the most wins? Even a even a player who

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Speaker 3: is just worth his salary that's highly paid, is actually

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Speaker 3: more important than these players who are worth double or

395
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Speaker 3: triple worth they're paid at the minimum. Then on top

396
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Speaker 3: of that, because of the mac salary, often the top

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Speaker 3: player you have is not only paid the most, but

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Speaker 3: also worth quite a bit more than what you're paying them.

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Speaker 3: Because of the dynamics I said before, which is so yes,

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Speaker 3: I really really love good players and I can't get enough,

401
00:22:02,924 --> 00:22:06,004
Speaker 3: and people talk about it, but the reality is, like

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Speaker 3: USA basketball, what works?

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Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, if you.

404
00:22:10,124 --> 00:22:14,004
Speaker 3: Get lots of highly skilled basketball players together, it generally

405
00:22:14,044 --> 00:22:14,884
Speaker 3: works really well.

406
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Speaker 1: How do you factor in kind of the uncertainty factor

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Speaker 1: when you're when you're in a game of individuals and champions,

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Speaker 1: right when you're dealing with people who are superstars? How

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Speaker 1: does your thinking work or do you just kind of

410
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Speaker 1: not even think about it in terms of injury and

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Speaker 1: that risk probability? Where right? If you actually, like, if

412
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Speaker 1: you invest everything in one superstar and like game one

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Speaker 1: should happens, Like, how do you think about that.

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Speaker 2: Because the superstar happens to be injury prone? Hypothetically hypothetical.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's very analogous to the starting pitcher issue that

416
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Speaker 3: baseball teams have.

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Speaker 4: But just multiply it by ten again.

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Speaker 3: Again, if we were trying to just be the fifth

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Speaker 3: best team, then it would become a much harder problem

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Speaker 3: because then the trade offs of injured superstar comes in.

421
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Speaker 3: But because you're trying to be the best of thirty,

422
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Speaker 3: you have to buy risk all over the place. And

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Speaker 3: it's really just like what risk are you buying? Are

424
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Speaker 3: you buying risks that they're not good enough? You're buying

425
00:23:17,564 --> 00:23:20,124
Speaker 3: risks at their bad people and they'll create off the court.

426
00:23:20,284 --> 00:23:22,364
Speaker 3: Are you buying risks that they're injured all the time,

427
00:23:22,444 --> 00:23:24,964
Speaker 3: or are you buying risks that they're shot might might

428
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Speaker 3: fall apart?

429
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Speaker 4: Like what risk are you buying?

430
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Speaker 3: Because if if you're not buying risks, you're not going

431
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Speaker 3: to win, right you have, Like beating the SMP by

432
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Speaker 3: three to five percent is not winning you the title.

433
00:23:35,644 --> 00:23:39,644
Speaker 3: So I tend to like buying injury risk because when

434
00:23:40,004 --> 00:23:43,004
Speaker 3: if if it all hits together, you have a team

435
00:23:43,044 --> 00:23:46,844
Speaker 3: that can win, I'll take I'll take that over a

436
00:23:46,844 --> 00:23:50,324
Speaker 3: player who's twenty percent worse but available all the time.

437
00:23:50,404 --> 00:23:54,484
Speaker 3: And I'm pretty sure the math depends out on that.

438
00:23:55,684 --> 00:23:55,884
Speaker 4: You know.

439
00:23:55,924 --> 00:23:59,604
Speaker 2: I tried that for my fantasy basketball league last year.

440
00:23:59,644 --> 00:24:02,244
Speaker 2: I had Embiid, I had Personius, I had John Morant,

441
00:24:02,324 --> 00:24:07,204
Speaker 2: right Cade Cunningham, all these injury risks, and it totally

442
00:24:07,244 --> 00:24:08,724
Speaker 2: felt on in his face. I was the worst team

443
00:24:08,724 --> 00:24:09,964
Speaker 2: in the league so far.

444
00:24:11,084 --> 00:24:13,844
Speaker 4: I can't believe, like you're arguing with the anecdote, Nate,

445
00:24:13,924 --> 00:24:14,924
Speaker 4: I can't. I can't believe it.

446
00:24:15,924 --> 00:24:21,524
Speaker 1: Well, Nate, you read Nate's book on the Edge, and

447
00:24:21,524 --> 00:24:24,044
Speaker 1: and we talked about this on the podcast, But Nate

448
00:24:24,244 --> 00:24:28,004
Speaker 1: bet over a million dollars on sports for for research

449
00:24:28,044 --> 00:24:30,204
Speaker 1: in one year, and Nate, can you remind me how

450
00:24:30,244 --> 00:24:32,084
Speaker 1: much you ended up winning.

451
00:24:32,924 --> 00:24:35,924
Speaker 2: At one point eight million dollars on the NBA and

452
00:24:35,964 --> 00:24:36,364
Speaker 2: this is not.

453
00:24:38,644 --> 00:24:40,724
Speaker 1: He bet. He bet one point eight And how much

454
00:24:40,724 --> 00:24:41,204
Speaker 1: did you win?

455
00:24:42,844 --> 00:24:45,724
Speaker 2: Five K? So if you do the math, that roughly

456
00:24:45,764 --> 00:24:49,884
Speaker 2: equates to per hour. Do you need to like working

457
00:24:49,924 --> 00:24:55,884
Speaker 2: at KFC after taxes and even before taxes?

458
00:24:56,004 --> 00:24:58,404
Speaker 4: Yeah, Maria, how are your poker winning?

459
00:24:58,444 --> 00:25:01,684
Speaker 3: Since you're getting on Nate for his UH for his

460
00:25:01,924 --> 00:25:03,924
Speaker 3: UH sports wagering.

461
00:25:04,364 --> 00:25:07,884
Speaker 4: They're good, They're good per hour. You're looking better than night. Okay,

462
00:25:07,884 --> 00:25:08,284
Speaker 4: that's good.

463
00:25:08,604 --> 00:25:12,524
Speaker 1: Yes, they were better than Nate. I had a horrible

464
00:25:12,564 --> 00:25:16,284
Speaker 1: summer at the World Series during the Summer Series and

465
00:25:16,404 --> 00:25:18,804
Speaker 1: was down over one hundred K, which is not good,

466
00:25:19,764 --> 00:25:23,644
Speaker 1: and then went to EPT Barcelona where I had a

467
00:25:23,684 --> 00:25:26,124
Speaker 1: score for almost one hundred and forty thousand, which put

468
00:25:26,164 --> 00:25:28,684
Speaker 1: me in the black for the year, and then went

469
00:25:28,764 --> 00:25:32,244
Speaker 1: on to you know when when the bracelet last week

470
00:25:32,644 --> 00:25:35,964
Speaker 1: have an eighth place finish in another bracelet event, so

471
00:25:36,324 --> 00:25:38,964
Speaker 1: and I have a few other deep runs. So so

472
00:25:39,004 --> 00:25:41,804
Speaker 1: now I'm now I'm doing more than a five k

473
00:25:42,004 --> 00:25:45,924
Speaker 1: in the black to be fair. To be fair, I

474
00:25:45,924 --> 00:25:48,364
Speaker 1: don't think I've had one point eight million dollars in

475
00:25:48,404 --> 00:25:51,684
Speaker 1: poker buy ins in my entire history of playing poker

476
00:25:52,204 --> 00:25:54,844
Speaker 1: over the last five and a half years, however long

477
00:25:54,884 --> 00:25:55,524
Speaker 1: I've been playing.

478
00:25:55,684 --> 00:25:58,404
Speaker 4: So I'm just actually running a long con on poker

479
00:25:58,444 --> 00:26:00,124
Speaker 4: on Nate. So we're going to do it.

480
00:26:00,324 --> 00:26:01,324
Speaker 1: You're a hustler, Dearly.

481
00:26:01,404 --> 00:26:05,204
Speaker 3: We're doing like we've done like ten events together, where

482
00:26:05,244 --> 00:26:07,164
Speaker 3: he sees how aggressive I am and then I'll just

483
00:26:07,204 --> 00:26:10,124
Speaker 3: tighten up when he when he's shoving on me one

484
00:26:10,124 --> 00:26:11,164
Speaker 3: of these times.

485
00:26:12,044 --> 00:26:16,244
Speaker 2: Speaking of all In, you had a very aggressive strategy.

486
00:26:16,604 --> 00:26:20,044
Speaker 2: Uh this summer where you cleared out all your salary

487
00:26:20,124 --> 00:26:23,004
Speaker 2: cap space and then you traded for is a sign

488
00:26:23,044 --> 00:26:24,444
Speaker 2: and trade. You just signed him out right.

489
00:26:24,484 --> 00:26:27,004
Speaker 4: Just signed out right, Yeah, which is rare, super rare.

490
00:26:27,004 --> 00:26:33,364
Speaker 2: Signed out right, which is rare. The superstar, our superstar

491
00:26:34,164 --> 00:26:39,564
Speaker 2: adjacent player named Paul George's a two way player, superstar player.

492
00:26:39,444 --> 00:26:41,484
Speaker 4: Top top. I mean, I don't know, he's top in

493
00:26:41,524 --> 00:26:41,844
Speaker 4: the league.

494
00:26:41,844 --> 00:26:43,924
Speaker 2: Come on, he's a very good player Paul George, who

495
00:26:43,964 --> 00:26:50,604
Speaker 2: compliments your existing roster. Well, I mean, did you think

496
00:26:50,644 --> 00:26:52,924
Speaker 2: you had a reasonable chance of I want to get

497
00:26:52,964 --> 00:26:55,244
Speaker 2: you in a tampering situation? What was Plan B if

498
00:26:55,284 --> 00:26:56,964
Speaker 2: Paul George hadn't become available.

499
00:26:57,684 --> 00:26:59,004
Speaker 4: Yeah, we didn't love Plan B.

500
00:27:00,724 --> 00:27:03,724
Speaker 3: Well, to be to be clear, when we started off

501
00:27:03,764 --> 00:27:07,244
Speaker 3: on that plan, there were several plan as they just

502
00:27:07,604 --> 00:27:09,804
Speaker 3: you know that they're you know, they sort of faded

503
00:27:09,844 --> 00:27:11,724
Speaker 3: their A one, A two, A three, A four, But

504
00:27:11,764 --> 00:27:15,244
Speaker 3: they faded over time, as you know, different things happen,

505
00:27:15,284 --> 00:27:19,964
Speaker 3: different trades, different happiness with team, things like that. We

506
00:27:20,044 --> 00:27:22,324
Speaker 3: felt quite confident this was our best strategy. But I

507
00:27:22,324 --> 00:27:24,844
Speaker 3: would say it's not to be recommended. I really don't

508
00:27:25,524 --> 00:27:29,164
Speaker 3: think people have tried to like write, oh, this is

509
00:27:29,284 --> 00:27:31,124
Speaker 3: like a new way to do things.

510
00:27:31,164 --> 00:27:32,084
Speaker 4: I really don't think. So.

511
00:27:32,244 --> 00:27:37,204
Speaker 3: We we given our team, given how our contracts laid

512
00:27:37,244 --> 00:27:40,804
Speaker 3: out when I came to Philly into twenty twenty, this

513
00:27:41,124 --> 00:27:45,684
Speaker 3: we thought was the right approach. But it could have

514
00:27:46,364 --> 00:27:48,204
Speaker 3: we would have been doing what I was talking about,

515
00:27:48,324 --> 00:27:51,484
Speaker 3: like sort of a waiting move again if we were

516
00:27:51,484 --> 00:27:55,124
Speaker 3: into Plan B, where we were doing moves that could

517
00:27:55,124 --> 00:27:57,764
Speaker 3: be flexible down the road. If the you know, the

518
00:27:57,764 --> 00:28:02,644
Speaker 3: next Paul George became available. But this one obviously there's

519
00:28:02,724 --> 00:28:05,604
Speaker 3: just any move because you know, again, only one team wins,

520
00:28:05,604 --> 00:28:08,924
Speaker 3: so the math is horrible. But we ended up sort

521
00:28:08,924 --> 00:28:11,284
Speaker 3: of on the We ended up playing. We had sort

522
00:28:11,284 --> 00:28:14,844
Speaker 3: of Maria's arc there. We had a last season was

523
00:28:14,884 --> 00:28:17,964
Speaker 3: sort of our you know, we lost whatever we didn't we.

524
00:28:17,924 --> 00:28:19,444
Speaker 4: Didn't have a great year.

525
00:28:19,604 --> 00:28:21,964
Speaker 3: And then you know, then we you know, sort of

526
00:28:22,084 --> 00:28:25,964
Speaker 3: got the front office bracelet and that.

527
00:28:26,084 --> 00:28:28,364
Speaker 4: We were we hit on the sort of high end

528
00:28:28,404 --> 00:28:29,764
Speaker 4: of what we were hoping to do this summer.

529
00:28:35,124 --> 00:28:36,284
Speaker 1: We'll be back right after this.

530
00:28:39,644 --> 00:28:39,884
Speaker 4: M H.

531
00:28:52,004 --> 00:28:56,444
Speaker 2: What are the incentives like for regular season versus maximizing

532
00:28:56,524 --> 00:29:01,444
Speaker 2: championship potential? So you have a undoubted superstar Joel Embiid

533
00:29:03,124 --> 00:29:05,364
Speaker 2: and you listen to all the NBA podcasts and you're like,

534
00:29:05,484 --> 00:29:09,004
Speaker 2: we think that Joel embiid Is should rest more in

535
00:29:09,044 --> 00:29:11,004
Speaker 2: the regular season. I mean, do you AI, do you

536
00:29:11,084 --> 00:29:16,124
Speaker 2: have a plan and be philosophically, what are you trying

537
00:29:16,124 --> 00:29:18,684
Speaker 2: to maximize? Because if you're bringing your thirteen year old

538
00:29:18,764 --> 00:29:20,604
Speaker 2: daughter to the six years game and buy some nice

539
00:29:20,604 --> 00:29:24,164
Speaker 2: seats and it's who's your backup, it's on Obamba, who's

540
00:29:24,164 --> 00:29:27,244
Speaker 2: your you know, Andre Drummers. Yeah, come on, man, I mean,

541
00:29:27,444 --> 00:29:30,364
Speaker 2: you know, look, it's a drop off, I'd say an

542
00:29:30,404 --> 00:29:31,444
Speaker 2: excitement and.

543
00:29:32,764 --> 00:29:34,364
Speaker 4: Right now drop off.

544
00:29:34,364 --> 00:29:37,724
Speaker 3: He keeps trying to do things like Joelle in the preseason,

545
00:29:38,204 --> 00:29:41,564
Speaker 3: which has had mixed mixed results. But we love, we

546
00:29:41,604 --> 00:29:45,884
Speaker 3: love Andre. He's definitely gonna buffet when Joel's out. Look,

547
00:29:45,924 --> 00:29:50,884
Speaker 3: I mean, we definitely optimizing for the postseason. A lot

548
00:29:50,924 --> 00:29:53,964
Speaker 3: of the analysis you see out there aren't isn't very

549
00:29:53,964 --> 00:29:58,604
Speaker 3: well structured. They they do all these hyper correlated analysis, like.

550
00:29:58,564 --> 00:30:02,044
Speaker 4: Oh, teams in the top four, the ones that win.

551
00:30:02,204 --> 00:30:05,484
Speaker 3: You know, well, yeah, if you happen to get if

552
00:30:05,484 --> 00:30:08,404
Speaker 3: the Warriors had gone through a year when they had

553
00:30:08,484 --> 00:30:10,924
Speaker 3: Kevin Durant where everyone was hurt, but then they're healthy

554
00:30:10,964 --> 00:30:13,764
Speaker 3: for the postseason, I'm pretty sure they're gonna make the

555
00:30:13,804 --> 00:30:15,124
Speaker 3: finals or win it that year.

556
00:30:15,684 --> 00:30:17,364
Speaker 4: So you know it.

557
00:30:18,204 --> 00:30:21,044
Speaker 3: For us, it's like, if there's one guiding principle, it's

558
00:30:21,084 --> 00:30:24,484
Speaker 3: just it's the players stupid, Like it's just get the

559
00:30:24,484 --> 00:30:28,524
Speaker 3: best players. And the analysis I talked about before of

560
00:30:28,564 --> 00:30:32,044
Speaker 3: Shoheo Tani, it gets even more pronounced in the playoffs

561
00:30:32,084 --> 00:30:34,964
Speaker 3: because players go from playing thirty to thirty five minutes

562
00:30:35,004 --> 00:30:40,804
Speaker 3: to forty to forty five minutes. Rotations shrink, so all

563
00:30:40,884 --> 00:30:44,764
Speaker 3: the impacts of star players actually again goes up. Superstar

564
00:30:44,804 --> 00:30:47,604
Speaker 3: players are also the player Everyone gets worse in the playoffs.

565
00:30:47,644 --> 00:30:48,204
Speaker 4: When I say.

566
00:30:48,044 --> 00:30:53,084
Speaker 3: Everyone, I mean on average everyone, some some get better,

567
00:30:53,484 --> 00:30:56,724
Speaker 3: but in general everyone gets worse as the competition level

568
00:30:56,764 --> 00:30:59,924
Speaker 3: goes up. But superstars drop the least, so they get

569
00:31:00,164 --> 00:31:03,284
Speaker 3: they they don't fall as much as pretty much everyone else.

570
00:31:03,364 --> 00:31:07,724
Speaker 2: So and there's not much advantage to I mean, if

571
00:31:07,804 --> 00:31:10,204
Speaker 2: you start as a seven seed, then it's not actually

572
00:31:10,204 --> 00:31:11,924
Speaker 2: that harmful, right.

573
00:31:11,844 --> 00:31:14,204
Speaker 4: Seven has become a little more harmful because the playing.

574
00:31:14,124 --> 00:31:17,084
Speaker 2: Oh you're in the playing Yeah, so six six six.

575
00:31:16,924 --> 00:31:20,724
Speaker 3: Is fine because yes, you know, a seven game series.

576
00:31:20,404 --> 00:31:23,124
Speaker 4: Where you're one more on the one more on the road.

577
00:31:23,844 --> 00:31:26,044
Speaker 3: It turns out to be not I think that's a

578
00:31:26,044 --> 00:31:27,804
Speaker 3: pretty small swing in percentage.

579
00:31:27,804 --> 00:31:30,204
Speaker 4: I think it's like two to three percent. It's not massive.

580
00:31:31,204 --> 00:31:39,004
Speaker 2: Why did the NBA get religion on analytics before after baseball,

581
00:31:39,204 --> 00:31:40,684
Speaker 2: I suppose, but yoube not that much.

582
00:31:40,564 --> 00:31:42,844
Speaker 4: In oh, I think even at the league level.

583
00:31:43,044 --> 00:31:46,684
Speaker 3: I think before they were the first to do a

584
00:31:46,724 --> 00:31:48,804
Speaker 3: lot of analytics on the business side that was shared

585
00:31:48,844 --> 00:31:52,044
Speaker 3: with teams. So I would say the NBA was sort

586
00:31:52,044 --> 00:31:54,684
Speaker 3: of for the teams on baseball were before the teams

587
00:31:54,684 --> 00:31:57,644
Speaker 3: in basketball. But at the league level, I think I'm

588
00:31:57,684 --> 00:31:59,524
Speaker 3: pretty confident the NBA was first.

589
00:31:59,884 --> 00:32:00,764
Speaker 4: Yeah.

590
00:32:01,084 --> 00:32:04,524
Speaker 2: So my Pitt theory is that, uh, this is because

591
00:32:04,564 --> 00:32:08,724
Speaker 2: the NBA tends to attract new money owners. So people

592
00:32:08,804 --> 00:32:11,764
Speaker 2: in financezer tech who not some old magnate of some

593
00:32:12,964 --> 00:32:16,164
Speaker 2: shitty beer company. You're not to demean by the way

594
00:32:16,164 --> 00:32:19,444
Speaker 2: sponsor us Bush Bush and bud Light. We went your

595
00:32:19,444 --> 00:32:22,804
Speaker 2: sponsorship can advertise your hard Seltzer produce.

596
00:32:22,884 --> 00:32:26,204
Speaker 3: One of the top agents in basketball is like the

597
00:32:27,524 --> 00:32:30,604
Speaker 3: nephew of the Bush Anheuser Busch empire.

598
00:32:30,764 --> 00:32:34,764
Speaker 4: So but yeah, no, I think you're one hundred percent right.

599
00:32:34,764 --> 00:32:35,284
Speaker 4: In eight, the.

600
00:32:35,444 --> 00:32:41,284
Speaker 3: Owners both the price point and you know, the sophisticated

601
00:32:41,324 --> 00:32:43,844
Speaker 3: owners who were buying in in the late nineties through

602
00:32:43,884 --> 00:32:50,124
Speaker 3: the two thousand to twenty ten, twenty fifteen range, they

603
00:32:50,204 --> 00:32:54,444
Speaker 3: all sort of saw the NBA getting more global, getting bigger,

604
00:32:54,484 --> 00:32:58,444
Speaker 3: They saw baseball declining, They saw the cat like the

605
00:32:58,524 --> 00:33:02,324
Speaker 3: cap system in the NBA has better, and so yeah,

606
00:33:02,364 --> 00:33:05,004
Speaker 3: all the sophisticated owners came into the NBA, I think

607
00:33:05,124 --> 00:33:08,364
Speaker 3: before pretty much all these other major leagues.

608
00:33:08,484 --> 00:33:13,164
Speaker 2: Yeah, when you're watching the game, would you say you're

609
00:33:13,564 --> 00:33:16,764
Speaker 2: I know the answer this question, so don't lie. Are

610
00:33:16,804 --> 00:33:18,884
Speaker 2: you relativelys in when you're watching a game?

611
00:33:20,044 --> 00:33:22,124
Speaker 4: If I'm watching, I'm very nods in? You know. That's

612
00:33:22,124 --> 00:33:25,724
Speaker 4: why I know it make a terrible coach. I spent.

613
00:33:25,844 --> 00:33:29,484
Speaker 3: I even have a formula sadly for when I go nuts,

614
00:33:29,524 --> 00:33:32,284
Speaker 3: and it's it's it's basically just like when the win

615
00:33:32,444 --> 00:33:36,124
Speaker 3: probability of either a game or even a play goes

616
00:33:36,204 --> 00:33:40,324
Speaker 3: way up to where you start as even a probabilistic thinker,

617
00:33:40,844 --> 00:33:43,164
Speaker 3: you start to go to one instead of point nine

618
00:33:43,404 --> 00:33:45,884
Speaker 3: you know in your head, and then it doesn't happen.

619
00:33:46,044 --> 00:33:48,884
Speaker 3: For especially if it doesn't happen for some really dumb

620
00:33:48,924 --> 00:33:51,444
Speaker 3: reason that could have been prevented, it gets Yeah, that

621
00:33:51,484 --> 00:33:54,444
Speaker 3: gets really annoying and hard given how much time and

622
00:33:54,644 --> 00:33:58,204
Speaker 3: work and effort goes into things from the front office,

623
00:33:58,284 --> 00:34:01,564
Speaker 3: from the players, from everything. So example, you know you're

624
00:34:01,644 --> 00:34:04,324
Speaker 3: up twenty five in a playoff game, you know that,

625
00:34:04,804 --> 00:34:07,524
Speaker 3: and you lose it, that gets tough. Or you know

626
00:34:07,884 --> 00:34:11,044
Speaker 3: the small ones which are done, which is like breakaway.

627
00:34:11,164 --> 00:34:13,604
Speaker 3: We get a steal and it's a breakaway and the

628
00:34:13,684 --> 00:34:16,924
Speaker 3: guy like you know gets fouled from behind, but they

629
00:34:16,924 --> 00:34:18,884
Speaker 3: don't call it, you know that, Like that kind of

630
00:34:18,884 --> 00:34:22,004
Speaker 3: stuff just throws me for a loop. It makes no sense,

631
00:34:22,044 --> 00:34:25,884
Speaker 3: but it does. Yeah, I'm very zen when the when

632
00:34:25,924 --> 00:34:29,964
Speaker 3: the odds of winning drop very low, I just sort

633
00:34:29,964 --> 00:34:33,444
Speaker 3: of like try to like learn things at that point.

634
00:34:33,724 --> 00:34:35,844
Speaker 1: So that's called fatalistic nun zend.

635
00:34:36,924 --> 00:34:41,524
Speaker 4: Yeah, I call pessimistic optimism. That's my it. Is it

636
00:34:41,564 --> 00:34:43,604
Speaker 4: called fatalistic or nihilistic?

637
00:34:44,164 --> 00:34:46,204
Speaker 1: Yeah, at that point when you're like, Okay, there's just

638
00:34:46,324 --> 00:34:47,924
Speaker 1: no way in hell this is happening.

639
00:34:48,084 --> 00:34:50,164
Speaker 4: So so what would be the poker covent?

640
00:34:50,204 --> 00:34:53,844
Speaker 3: Like you're in a hand that you're you're pot you're

641
00:34:53,884 --> 00:34:57,964
Speaker 3: heavily pot committed, Like the right strategy is still to

642
00:34:58,004 --> 00:35:00,844
Speaker 3: stay in the hand even though your odds of winning

643
00:35:00,924 --> 00:35:02,764
Speaker 3: it at that point, you know, have to be like

644
00:35:02,924 --> 00:35:04,444
Speaker 3: twenty percent or something like that.

645
00:35:04,964 --> 00:35:09,204
Speaker 1: No, I mean, I think I think in poker, you know,

646
00:35:09,684 --> 00:35:13,004
Speaker 1: being done is quite important. And I would say there's

647
00:35:13,044 --> 00:35:15,844
Speaker 1: no situation where your pot committed and you have to

648
00:35:15,844 --> 00:35:17,444
Speaker 1: stay in the hand if you think your odds have

649
00:35:17,524 --> 00:35:20,004
Speaker 1: dropped to twenty percent, as long as you have any

650
00:35:20,084 --> 00:35:23,244
Speaker 1: chips behind, you can always fold. And I think that

651
00:35:23,244 --> 00:35:25,404
Speaker 1: that's really important. And I think that people who get

652
00:35:25,444 --> 00:35:28,484
Speaker 1: too emotionally invested forget that, they forget that you are

653
00:35:28,524 --> 00:35:30,924
Speaker 1: always allowed to fold, and they get to this point

654
00:35:30,924 --> 00:35:33,044
Speaker 1: where like, no, but like this was supposed to go

655
00:35:33,164 --> 00:35:35,484
Speaker 1: this way, and so they like end up putting those

656
00:35:35,484 --> 00:35:37,524
Speaker 1: final chips in the middle. And I've done that, and

657
00:35:37,564 --> 00:35:39,844
Speaker 1: I've written about doing that, and it's a horrible feeling,

658
00:35:40,124 --> 00:35:42,484
Speaker 1: you know, when you like, either when someone else goes

659
00:35:42,484 --> 00:35:45,124
Speaker 1: you into it or when you god yourself into going

660
00:35:45,164 --> 00:35:48,244
Speaker 1: broke even though you like you knew that you were maid.

661
00:35:48,484 --> 00:35:51,924
Speaker 3: Yeah, and so on your trip sixes or whatever it

662
00:35:52,004 --> 00:35:54,164
Speaker 3: was to knock you out of the World Series at

663
00:35:54,204 --> 00:35:57,004
Speaker 3: place eighty seven, how were you, Darrel?

664
00:35:57,284 --> 00:36:01,644
Speaker 2: You're gonna bring that up? Is we should talk about els?

665
00:36:03,404 --> 00:36:06,524
Speaker 2: The twenty seven consecutive miss three pointers.

666
00:36:08,124 --> 00:36:08,764
Speaker 4: We all name this.

667
00:36:09,564 --> 00:36:12,484
Speaker 3: We don't name its twenty five because the league report

668
00:36:12,564 --> 00:36:15,644
Speaker 3: after said they followed this on two. So the official

669
00:36:16,004 --> 00:36:22,004
Speaker 3: the official record for me is twenty five misses. So so, well,

670
00:36:22,044 --> 00:36:27,044
Speaker 3: you asked how ZENI was, so it seemed to bait.

671
00:36:28,644 --> 00:36:31,564
Speaker 2: I mean, you don't really actually a little bit ambiguused.

672
00:36:31,844 --> 00:36:35,084
Speaker 2: You don't really have any influence over the game. I've

673
00:36:35,084 --> 00:36:38,604
Speaker 2: talked about this before. What are you allowed to communicate

674
00:36:39,284 --> 00:36:42,644
Speaker 2: to other people that are on the floor during the game.

675
00:36:43,324 --> 00:36:46,004
Speaker 4: So it's actually even gotten more ridiculous.

676
00:36:46,564 --> 00:36:50,724
Speaker 3: So they they at first the league, even when I

677
00:36:50,884 --> 00:36:53,884
Speaker 3: first started league, like two thousand and four, I joke

678
00:36:53,964 --> 00:36:57,124
Speaker 3: with them in a very you know, geeky nerdy way. Unfortunately,

679
00:36:57,924 --> 00:37:03,204
Speaker 3: they they banned electromagnetic signals to the bench, like you

680
00:37:03,244 --> 00:37:07,804
Speaker 3: couldn't text anyone, you can't call any common well it

681
00:37:07,844 --> 00:37:09,084
Speaker 3: was all data calls by.

682
00:37:08,964 --> 00:37:11,844
Speaker 4: Then, so but you could still.

683
00:37:11,884 --> 00:37:14,204
Speaker 3: I could still sit behind the bench to rows and

684
00:37:14,284 --> 00:37:18,724
Speaker 3: yell to my So vibrating molecules are fine for communicating,

685
00:37:18,764 --> 00:37:23,364
Speaker 3: but electromatic signals not allowed by the league, which to

686
00:37:23,844 --> 00:37:25,404
Speaker 3: this day I believe that's the rule. But then they

687
00:37:25,444 --> 00:37:29,324
Speaker 3: made it even worse. This year they passed a ridiculous

688
00:37:29,924 --> 00:37:34,004
Speaker 3: band on anyone using cell phones forty five minutes before

689
00:37:34,044 --> 00:37:39,164
Speaker 3: the game till after which we'll see how that goes.

690
00:37:39,764 --> 00:37:41,764
Speaker 3: But yeah, I can still sit behind the bench and

691
00:37:41,844 --> 00:37:45,684
Speaker 3: yell to my hearts content and hand signals, yeah, smoke

692
00:37:45,724 --> 00:37:46,924
Speaker 3: signal like the popes use.

693
00:37:47,004 --> 00:37:50,244
Speaker 4: We can do that. We have lots of yeah that

694
00:37:50,244 --> 00:37:53,364
Speaker 4: that we can well, no, it's electric. Oh, shoot, I

695
00:37:53,364 --> 00:37:53,844
Speaker 4: screwed up.

696
00:37:53,844 --> 00:37:57,004
Speaker 3: We're allowed to use the electromatic spectrum in the visual range.

697
00:37:57,164 --> 00:37:59,884
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, So we can use the ones our eyes

698
00:37:59,924 --> 00:38:02,524
Speaker 3: can see. We're still to use, but all others are banned.

699
00:38:03,724 --> 00:38:07,084
Speaker 3: So yeah, So I to answer your question, I don't

700
00:38:07,084 --> 00:38:11,524
Speaker 3: have much impact. Sometimes there's some halftime things where I'll

701
00:38:11,524 --> 00:38:16,004
Speaker 3: mention something, but our coaches are very good. It's never

702
00:38:16,044 --> 00:38:19,524
Speaker 3: anything relevant that would change the outcome of something.

703
00:38:19,844 --> 00:38:24,364
Speaker 2: So are there examples of where the nerds have gone

704
00:38:24,404 --> 00:38:27,724
Speaker 2: too far? Things that were kind of superficial conclusions based

705
00:38:27,724 --> 00:38:28,444
Speaker 2: on the analytics?

706
00:38:28,604 --> 00:38:30,404
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean hot hands, the easy one.

707
00:38:30,844 --> 00:38:32,804
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think anyone who played which I did play,

708
00:38:32,844 --> 00:38:34,964
Speaker 3: that was, you know best suppose my sport I wasn't

709
00:38:35,084 --> 00:38:37,604
Speaker 3: very good. I can play at the pro level, of course,

710
00:38:37,684 --> 00:38:41,724
Speaker 3: but you do sort of get that feeling of muscle

711
00:38:41,804 --> 00:38:45,404
Speaker 3: memory and all that. The hot hand was thought to

712
00:38:45,484 --> 00:38:48,404
Speaker 3: not exist, mostly because they didn't factor for people who

713
00:38:48,404 --> 00:38:51,364
Speaker 3: think they're hot shooting really hard shots. So once once

714
00:38:51,404 --> 00:38:55,124
Speaker 3: you adjust for that effect, there is a hot hand effect.

715
00:38:55,364 --> 00:38:59,324
Speaker 4: That's one I think. Gosh, there's got to be a

716
00:38:59,324 --> 00:39:00,124
Speaker 4: bunch like.

717
00:39:00,444 --> 00:39:06,164
Speaker 2: I mean clutch performance. You are the former possessor of

718
00:39:06,364 --> 00:39:08,404
Speaker 2: Ben Simmons's NBA playing rights.

719
00:39:11,764 --> 00:39:16,524
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that one's a tough one. No, they're

720
00:39:18,044 --> 00:39:20,764
Speaker 4: you just never have enough end to confidently say.

721
00:39:21,124 --> 00:39:23,644
Speaker 3: But for sure when people look back, they can show

722
00:39:23,764 --> 00:39:26,564
Speaker 3: player X or Y was more clutch and high leverage moments,

723
00:39:27,444 --> 00:39:29,004
Speaker 3: but no one's been able to show that they could

724
00:39:29,004 --> 00:39:29,524
Speaker 3: predict that.

725
00:39:30,004 --> 00:39:35,324
Speaker 4: You know X post So clutch is a good one.

726
00:39:39,244 --> 00:39:56,484
Speaker 2: And we'll be right back after this break. We're going

727
00:39:56,564 --> 00:39:58,084
Speaker 2: to try to wrap up in the next few minutes.

728
00:39:58,964 --> 00:40:03,084
Speaker 4: To Nate, though, I have to call it Nate yesterday, please.

729
00:40:03,644 --> 00:40:08,684
Speaker 3: So Nate, being a very good Chicago crad, assumed efficient

730
00:40:08,724 --> 00:40:13,244
Speaker 3: market theory is correct, and he managed he managed to

731
00:40:13,284 --> 00:40:15,764
Speaker 3: stumble into like one of the areas of which there's

732
00:40:15,804 --> 00:40:19,484
Speaker 3: thousands of papers where it's not correct, and there's lots

733
00:40:19,484 --> 00:40:23,324
Speaker 3: of hypotheses and even some leading hypotheses it's not. So

734
00:40:23,724 --> 00:40:26,684
Speaker 3: he took an anti momentum stance. And to be clear,

735
00:40:26,764 --> 00:40:30,004
Speaker 3: you have to get very very geeky and say, like, yes,

736
00:40:30,684 --> 00:40:33,124
Speaker 3: there is a it is mostly a random walk from

737
00:40:33,484 --> 00:40:37,404
Speaker 3: day to day, which I think you mentioned the stock market.

738
00:40:37,524 --> 00:40:39,604
Speaker 3: We're in the stock market, but you use like the

739
00:40:39,604 --> 00:40:42,364
Speaker 3: stock market is a proxy of live momentum can't exist

740
00:40:42,404 --> 00:40:47,444
Speaker 3: in political markets or probably doesn't exist when momentum is

741
00:40:47,564 --> 00:40:51,044
Speaker 3: for sure a factor to use the quant So ray

742
00:40:51,084 --> 00:40:53,684
Speaker 3: I whand ask you who used to run quantic gold sacks,

743
00:40:53,684 --> 00:40:56,044
Speaker 3: and I, you know, I have a lot of money

744
00:40:56,044 --> 00:40:59,764
Speaker 3: in that factor because it's worked for one hundred years,

745
00:40:59,884 --> 00:41:03,284
Speaker 3: hundreds of years. And they think that momentum is a

746
00:41:03,324 --> 00:41:05,764
Speaker 3: real thing in the stock market that you can trade on,

747
00:41:05,964 --> 00:41:07,284
Speaker 3: even though everyone knows it.

748
00:41:07,284 --> 00:41:09,364
Speaker 4: It breaks every for a couple of reason.

749
00:41:09,484 --> 00:41:13,604
Speaker 3: And one they think that there's a lot of papers

750
00:41:13,604 --> 00:41:17,244
Speaker 3: when people are slow to react to information, so you know,

751
00:41:17,324 --> 00:41:19,884
Speaker 3: there's some news and people don't at the beginning to

752
00:41:19,924 --> 00:41:24,004
Speaker 3: realize how big that might end up being until multiple

753
00:41:24,084 --> 00:41:24,604
Speaker 3: days later.

754
00:41:24,724 --> 00:41:26,604
Speaker 4: So so of course you can be wrong.

755
00:41:26,644 --> 00:41:29,324
Speaker 3: But again the the the overall bet is the momentum

756
00:41:29,484 --> 00:41:33,084
Speaker 3: does slightly work and you can trade it. The second

757
00:41:33,124 --> 00:41:35,564
Speaker 3: one is that there are these you know, to use

758
00:41:35,564 --> 00:41:40,644
Speaker 3: a there are these whale insiders that move markets, and

759
00:41:40,684 --> 00:41:45,484
Speaker 3: you're basically free writing on their information when they when

760
00:41:45,484 --> 00:41:48,924
Speaker 3: they first make those first make those bets. So those

761
00:41:48,964 --> 00:41:50,404
Speaker 3: are two of the reasons.

762
00:41:51,084 --> 00:41:53,364
Speaker 2: So number number go up on number.

763
00:41:54,764 --> 00:41:58,444
Speaker 3: If done very characters sophisticated, I would I would definitely

764
00:41:58,524 --> 00:42:02,964
Speaker 3: recommend that both of you put some some percentage of

765
00:42:03,004 --> 00:42:06,364
Speaker 3: your of your wealth and a momentum stock because it's

766
00:42:07,364 --> 00:42:08,844
Speaker 3: you know, it's similar to do you know about the

767
00:42:08,844 --> 00:42:12,444
Speaker 3: long shot and gambling? I'm sure you do, They ain't sure.

768
00:42:12,884 --> 00:42:18,884
Speaker 3: So people don't like to bet sure things. They like

769
00:42:18,964 --> 00:42:20,964
Speaker 3: to bet long shots. So because of that, the sure

770
00:42:21,044 --> 00:42:24,684
Speaker 3: things have this long, long history and it still exists

771
00:42:24,844 --> 00:42:28,404
Speaker 3: if they let you put any money down, it still

772
00:42:28,444 --> 00:42:31,364
Speaker 3: exists that if you bet the favorites and you bet

773
00:42:31,404 --> 00:42:37,084
Speaker 3: that with enough money that you can that you can

774
00:42:37,764 --> 00:42:40,844
Speaker 3: you know, overall win essentially, and I know people have

775
00:42:40,884 --> 00:42:44,484
Speaker 3: funds that do exactly that. Oh there's one last reason

776
00:42:44,564 --> 00:42:47,884
Speaker 3: they think momentum still exists. It's that's because people hate

777
00:42:48,044 --> 00:42:53,964
Speaker 3: losing their money, right, And there's a fatter tail on

778
00:42:54,084 --> 00:42:57,324
Speaker 3: the downside of momentum then there is on an upside.

779
00:42:57,324 --> 00:43:00,484
Speaker 4: Does that make sense? So, so you you're.

780
00:43:00,324 --> 00:43:05,084
Speaker 3: More likely to lose big with momentum strategies in certain

781
00:43:05,524 --> 00:43:06,724
Speaker 3: in certain market.

782
00:43:06,564 --> 00:43:08,044
Speaker 4: Environments than others.

783
00:43:08,684 --> 00:43:10,164
Speaker 2: But over I hadn't thought about that.

784
00:43:10,484 --> 00:43:15,404
Speaker 3: But over time it absolutely wins over one hundred years plus.

785
00:43:15,524 --> 00:43:17,884
Speaker 4: So yeah, yeah.

786
00:43:17,684 --> 00:43:20,124
Speaker 3: Well can I ask so given you just got a

787
00:43:20,124 --> 00:43:23,924
Speaker 3: crash course in quant momentum is there any I would

788
00:43:23,964 --> 00:43:26,124
Speaker 3: think one of those fits that that if people are

789
00:43:26,164 --> 00:43:32,164
Speaker 3: betting heavily on Trump or or or Kamala, that there

790
00:43:32,244 --> 00:43:36,124
Speaker 3: may be signal that the market hasn't picked up yet.

791
00:43:37,084 --> 00:43:44,084
Speaker 2: Could I am skeptical about empirically the betting markets under preform, okay,

792
00:43:45,084 --> 00:43:47,324
Speaker 2: under from polling based methods.

793
00:43:47,164 --> 00:43:50,884
Speaker 4: Got it? I mean it's weird. Let's say just polls.

794
00:43:50,964 --> 00:43:54,804
Speaker 4: Can you is their momentum to polls? The potentially there's

795
00:43:54,844 --> 00:43:55,484
Speaker 4: a good question.

796
00:43:55,564 --> 00:43:58,844
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's you can get these feedback effects

797
00:43:58,884 --> 00:44:01,724
Speaker 2: and it's some question as to whether they're real or

798
00:44:01,724 --> 00:44:04,564
Speaker 2: whether they're fake. Right, But like in principle, can it

799
00:44:04,564 --> 00:44:07,124
Speaker 2: has a good poll that that gets good media coverage,

800
00:44:07,164 --> 00:44:10,884
Speaker 2: which gets more polling, But then quilibrium kind of shifts

801
00:44:11,364 --> 00:44:13,644
Speaker 2: because people get bored and now expectations are higher, so

802
00:44:13,644 --> 00:44:16,364
Speaker 2: you kind of wind up with like a sine wave pattern.

803
00:44:16,404 --> 00:44:18,604
Speaker 2: But yeah, no, I mean it's it's a lot of

804
00:44:18,644 --> 00:44:23,004
Speaker 2: things where to a first approximation, ignore the hot hand,

805
00:44:23,404 --> 00:44:25,724
Speaker 2: ignore momentum. Then you start studying and it's like, okay,

806
00:44:25,764 --> 00:44:27,604
Speaker 2: now we're advanced enough where we have to think about

807
00:44:27,604 --> 00:44:32,604
Speaker 2: the second approximation and a third order effects and so forth.

808
00:44:32,684 --> 00:44:35,844
Speaker 2: And and you know, the sophistication of the NBA now

809
00:44:35,924 --> 00:44:37,644
Speaker 2: or of Wall Street or a poker are such that,

810
00:44:37,764 --> 00:44:40,244
Speaker 2: like you do have to take into account the edge

811
00:44:40,244 --> 00:44:41,364
Speaker 2: case stuff sometimes.

812
00:44:41,644 --> 00:44:44,004
Speaker 3: Can I ask him, Maria, because you're probably the best

813
00:44:44,004 --> 00:44:45,804
Speaker 3: poker player on here is my guess.

814
00:44:47,004 --> 00:44:50,084
Speaker 1: How much do you are winning the World Series of Needles?

815
00:44:51,684 --> 00:44:52,124
Speaker 4: Do you.

816
00:44:53,564 --> 00:44:56,644
Speaker 3: What is what is the meta? Like do you have

817
00:44:56,724 --> 00:44:58,924
Speaker 3: to train with like a solver all the time or

818
00:44:58,964 --> 00:45:00,644
Speaker 3: do you just play a lot? Or how do you

819
00:45:00,684 --> 00:45:02,684
Speaker 3: get reinforcement learning? Yeah?

820
00:45:03,004 --> 00:45:06,684
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think these days, because the solvers are quite

821
00:45:06,684 --> 00:45:10,644
Speaker 1: good and there are really great ais that you can

822
00:45:10,684 --> 00:45:13,884
Speaker 1: play against, I think that that's actually quite important, so

823
00:45:13,924 --> 00:45:15,964
Speaker 1: that you can get that feedback and see what the

824
00:45:15,964 --> 00:45:20,004
Speaker 1: optimal strategy would be. And then it's like with everything, right,

825
00:45:20,044 --> 00:45:23,644
Speaker 1: that's your baseline, and then you absolutely deviate, right because

826
00:45:24,084 --> 00:45:27,324
Speaker 1: the people you're playing against in large field events do

827
00:45:27,444 --> 00:45:30,444
Speaker 1: not play like the solver, right, unless I am playing

828
00:45:30,484 --> 00:45:32,884
Speaker 1: like the ten best players in the world, Like, they're

829
00:45:32,884 --> 00:45:35,604
Speaker 1: not going to be playing optimal strategy. And sometimes they

830
00:45:35,604 --> 00:45:38,644
Speaker 1: don't even understand what optimal strategy is in the sense

831
00:45:38,724 --> 00:45:40,404
Speaker 1: that like, so aren't.

832
00:45:40,124 --> 00:45:44,124
Speaker 4: There mix is? Aren't there mixed player simulators.

833
00:45:43,404 --> 00:45:47,404
Speaker 1: Or yeah, yes, well no there aren't there There aren't

834
00:45:47,564 --> 00:45:50,884
Speaker 1: unless unless what you do. So you can play around

835
00:45:50,924 --> 00:45:54,004
Speaker 1: with the ranges, right, This is like any algorithm, garbage in,

836
00:45:54,084 --> 00:45:57,804
Speaker 1: garbage out, yeah, right, and good stuff and good stuff out.

837
00:45:58,604 --> 00:46:01,524
Speaker 1: And so you make assumptions about hand ranges before you

838
00:46:01,764 --> 00:46:04,244
Speaker 1: before you do any of this, before you run sims,

839
00:46:04,324 --> 00:46:07,324
Speaker 1: before you kind of do a hand deconstruction where you say,

840
00:46:07,604 --> 00:46:10,364
Speaker 1: I think the player in this position is open these hands, right,

841
00:46:10,724 --> 00:46:13,124
Speaker 1: and I think that this player is playing these hands.

842
00:46:13,604 --> 00:46:15,404
Speaker 1: And you can be right or you can be wrong.

843
00:46:15,484 --> 00:46:18,724
Speaker 1: But there's a thing called node locking, which is something

844
00:46:18,724 --> 00:46:21,164
Speaker 1: that you can do when you mimic bad players, right,

845
00:46:21,204 --> 00:46:23,284
Speaker 1: So you can node lock it to say, okay, no,

846
00:46:23,484 --> 00:46:25,844
Speaker 1: you're telling me that the correct thing here is to raise,

847
00:46:26,204 --> 00:46:28,604
Speaker 1: but I'm going to say that this person never raises, right,

848
00:46:28,644 --> 00:46:31,564
Speaker 1: So I'm going to node lock. It's not an option.

849
00:46:31,924 --> 00:46:34,764
Speaker 4: I've been node locking my whole career. I've been node locking.

850
00:46:35,444 --> 00:46:37,884
Speaker 1: Then, so then you can see how the strategy changes.

851
00:46:37,924 --> 00:46:40,044
Speaker 1: So you can play with the solvers to show you

852
00:46:40,044 --> 00:46:42,964
Speaker 1: how to deviate against specific opponent types. But you know,

853
00:46:43,004 --> 00:46:46,284
Speaker 1: as Nate said, like when it comes to when it

854
00:46:46,284 --> 00:46:48,644
Speaker 1: comes to anything like it can be dangerous, like you

855
00:46:48,684 --> 00:46:51,204
Speaker 1: need to make sure you really understand the baseline and

856
00:46:51,204 --> 00:46:55,084
Speaker 1: that you really like have the ground strategy really solid,

857
00:46:55,244 --> 00:46:57,164
Speaker 1: so you have to do both. But these days I

858
00:46:57,204 --> 00:46:59,164
Speaker 1: do think you need to use the solvers and the

859
00:46:59,244 --> 00:47:03,444
Speaker 1: analytics as well. So I think that's important, and I

860
00:47:03,484 --> 00:47:06,444
Speaker 1: know that we're basically out of time, Nate. Between you

861
00:47:06,524 --> 00:47:10,604
Speaker 1: and Darryl needling each other, it was definitely a nice

862
00:47:10,684 --> 00:47:15,444
Speaker 1: reality TV edition of Risky Business. So I hope everyone

863
00:47:15,444 --> 00:47:18,564
Speaker 1: has enjoyed that very much. And I've loved being I've

864
00:47:18,604 --> 00:47:20,604
Speaker 1: really enjoyed like just being a fly on the wall

865
00:47:20,644 --> 00:47:22,404
Speaker 1: for those back and forth exchanges.

866
00:47:22,444 --> 00:47:22,724
Speaker 4: I love it.

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00:47:22,804 --> 00:47:24,484
Speaker 1: Let's let's do it more, Daryl, We'll have to have

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00:47:24,524 --> 00:47:24,924
Speaker 1: you back.

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00:47:25,884 --> 00:47:30,484
Speaker 4: He resisted any Nicks zings. Thank you name, Darryl.

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00:47:30,564 --> 00:47:32,284
Speaker 2: I mean, I look, it was a great series. You

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00:47:32,324 --> 00:47:34,364
Speaker 2: guys fought hard. You guys fought hard. It was an

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00:47:34,404 --> 00:47:36,324
Speaker 2: excellent basketball series, and as a Knicks fan, I was

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00:47:36,324 --> 00:47:38,204
Speaker 2: happy with the outcome. So thank you for that and

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00:47:38,244 --> 00:47:38,964
Speaker 2: thanks for coming on.

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00:47:39,244 --> 00:47:40,564
Speaker 4: Thanks Thanks Branda, thanks for that.

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00:47:45,804 --> 00:47:47,964
Speaker 1: Let us know what you think of the show. Reach

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00:47:48,044 --> 00:47:53,484
Speaker 1: out to us at Risky Business at Pushkin dot FM.

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00:47:53,604 --> 00:47:57,044
Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Konnikova.

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00:47:56,364 --> 00:47:57,724
Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver.

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00:47:58,084 --> 00:48:01,604
Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.

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00:48:02,124 --> 00:48:05,684
Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer

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00:48:05,764 --> 00:48:09,284
Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

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00:48:09,604 --> 00:48:11,724
Speaker 2: If you like the show, please rate and review us

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00:48:11,764 --> 00:48:13,844
Speaker 2: so other people can find us too. And if you

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00:48:13,844 --> 00:48:16,204
Speaker 2: want to listen to an ad free version, sign up

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00:48:16,244 --> 00:48:18,844
Speaker 2: for Pushkin Plus. For six, ten and nine a month,

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00:48:18,844 --> 00:48:21,644
Speaker 2: you get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.