1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day. If Bloomberg 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,840 Speaker 1: dot com the radio plus mobile lab and on your radio, 3 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: this is a Broomberg business flash and I'm Karen Moscow. 4 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by National Realty for It 5 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: turns on cash and rented real estate. Find them at 6 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 1: n r i A dot net. US stocks are falling, 7 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 1: with transportation shares leading to clins following deadly bombings in 8 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 1: Brussels that jolted markets and fuel demand for haven assets 9 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: like treasuries in gold. We check the markets every fifteen 10 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 1: minutes throughout the trading day. On Boloomberg, the S and 11 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:38,200 Speaker 1: P five hundred is down half percent or ten points 12 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,880 Speaker 1: to one Dow Jones Industrial average down four ten percent 13 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: or seventy four points or seventeen thousand five d forty eight. 14 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:47,240 Speaker 1: Then as to actual down four tenths percent or eighteen 15 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: points to forty seven ninety ten year treasury of eight 16 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 1: thirty seconds, the yield one point eight eight percent, the 17 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: yield on the two year point eight four percent nin 18 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 1: max screwed oil down one point three percent or fifty 19 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 1: five cents to forty dollars ninety seven. Sense of arrel 20 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 1: called my schooled up one or twelve dollars twenty cents 21 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:06,680 Speaker 1: at twelve fifty six sixty announced the euro at other 22 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: twelve twenty eight and one eleven point six two. And 23 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 1: US home prices rose in January as shoppers competed for 24 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 1: a limited inventory of listings. Prices increased half percent on 25 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:20,120 Speaker 1: a seasonally adjusted basis from December, the Federal Housing Finance 26 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 1: Agency said. And that's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Mike, Karen, 27 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 1: I thank you so much. She is usually at Desk 28 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 1: twelve on the ground floor of our news bureau in Brussels. 29 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 1: She usually does financial regulation. Today she is not today 30 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 1: she is looking at terrorism and the effects. Julia amber 31 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: Verlane is with Bloomberg News and Brussels and she is 32 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 1: at a changed Forever train station. Julia, where are you 33 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: right now? So I'm actually walking away from the commission 34 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: towards the center of town to try to get a 35 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: reaction from from the Belgium people, to see how they 36 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 1: feel about this, because now the idea is just like lockdown. 37 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: What does this mean our shops going to stay closed? 38 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 1: What about restaurants? What does the cost of all of this? 39 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: Or do people want to try to share the tarrits. No, 40 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 1: you're wrong, We're going to keep living. And that was 41 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: one of the debates that came up this morning in 42 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 1: the European Parliament when they nearly suspended a hearing I 43 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 1: was attending, and one of the French m et s said, no, 44 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:19,360 Speaker 1: this is exactly what they want when need to carry 45 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 1: off business as usual. So I'm on the streets. I 46 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 1: was going to get a sense of what people are thinking. 47 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 1: What have you seen so far in terms of commerce 48 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 1: on the streets. Obviously the transportation system shut down, but 49 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: our shops open? Did people go home? What? What is 50 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 1: it like? The streets are pretty unsay, I mean there's 51 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 1: still circulation. All of the lunch places near the bar 52 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 1: La mall and near Schumann Institution closed because the majority 53 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: of people were told by the government to stay home, 54 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: and since the attacks happened in the morning when most 55 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 1: people commute, I believe most people did and are working remotely, 56 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 1: and those that are in the institution buildings are being 57 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: told to stay inside and take tax feeds back. Now 58 00:02:55,840 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 1: the transportation system shut down, no indication when a will 59 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,799 Speaker 1: be able to reopen. No, and you have busters that 60 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 1: are circulating completely empty. Saying uh, deviated or no service, etcetera. 61 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 1: How will Brussels change? You are in the absolute heart 62 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 1: of your bureaucracy, Brussels. We've heard any number of interviews 63 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: today that says Brussels is unique to Europe. What will 64 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 1: be like tomorrow? And much more, Julia, what will your 65 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 1: world be like three months or three years from now? Um, 66 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 1: you know that's a tough question. And I think the 67 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 1: thing is just what we saw the lost. People have 68 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: very short term memories, and so I can tell you 69 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: that I think the next week or two will be 70 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 1: like after the initial lockdown, where restaurants will be emptier, 71 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: people will be afraid to go out, dinners may be canceled. Um, 72 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: there's a tendency for people who still want to live 73 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 1: and go out, and you saw that after Paris, where 74 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 1: cafes are now repopulated. But what there will be in 75 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: sort of the long term effect is going to be 76 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: that when you take a metro, people looking around being jittery. 77 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 1: Two sounds, and you're a New Yorker, you experienced that 78 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: after nine eleven. There's still that memory for planes flies 79 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 1: down all over a building. You get a little panic. 80 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 1: So I think that's what's going to happen. Survival instincts 81 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 1: and vigilance will kick in in the long term. You 82 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: have a unique perspective working with Barclays in London, in 83 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 1: New York, working in London for some time, and now 84 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:25,239 Speaker 1: in Brussels. How will this change the dialogue of London 85 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,480 Speaker 1: and of Europe in the weeks to come, and particularly 86 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: to the British vote in late June. I think what 87 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 1: a lot of people were worried about it when he 88 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:36,719 Speaker 1: speak to a lot of the British journalists here was 89 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 1: that and the Breaksit vote won't become about breaksit, but 90 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: it will become about terrorism and refugees. And I think 91 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 1: this is one of those events where you have another 92 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: sort of hitting point, and it's the turning point when 93 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: you say, all right, now there's even more of an excuse. 94 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 1: Europe does not have it act together, they have problems. 95 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 1: Do we really want to be involved? So I think 96 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 1: it will affect the dialogue because as much as Cameron 97 00:04:57,600 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 1: can be positive about the relationship, when people I believe 98 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: it was that said they're actually not voting but the 99 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:08,039 Speaker 1: reference in michage itself, but they're voting on anything else 100 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 1: that's externally happening in a mis case in Europe. It's 101 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: terrorism and it's a refugee crisis. Julia amber Verlaine, thank 102 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: you very much from Bloomberg News in Brussels. Right now. 103 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:22,239 Speaker 1: Some headlines crossing the Bloomberg here about New York Governor 104 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 1: Andrew Cuomo announcing stepped up security at major transit hubs here, 105 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: although he says there is no credible threat to the 106 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 1: New York State at this time, but that you will 107 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 1: likely see more security going around the state. Interesting market 108 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 1: reaction today, uh, for you know, a lot of different reasons. 109 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 1: We have seen a lot of different assets move in 110 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 1: different directions. Early today, shortly after the bombing's, oil prices 111 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 1: were higher because there was a report that Saudi Arabia 112 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 1: was going to go ahead with an oil price freeze, 113 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 1: with or without I ran there now Lower West Texas 114 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:08,919 Speaker 1: Intermediate six down one Brent cru down seven percent. Michael 115 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 1: Whitner is global head of oil research at Associated General. 116 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: He's with us now, Michael. Uh. It used to be 117 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,039 Speaker 1: that we would see after an event like this a 118 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 1: big spike in oil prices because there would be a 119 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 1: terror premium built in. Instead, they're going the other way, 120 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 1: what has changed, Well, I think what's happened is UH 121 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:37,480 Speaker 1: UM as opposed to worries about a supply disruption, and 122 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: that's what would drive a spike what we have today, 123 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 1: and we've seen this in other terrorist attacks and a 124 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 1: moment ago you mentioned nine eleven UM. The worry is 125 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 1: that something like this is a perfect recipe to to 126 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 1: kill off consumer confidence very quickly, and it's a and 127 00:06:56,320 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 1: the risk is that something like this UH could slow 128 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 1: down economic growth. So to me, it makes perfect sense 129 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 1: that while prices are down a bit today now, there 130 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:10,679 Speaker 1: was this report earlier that Saudi Arabia would go ahead 131 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 1: with the oil price freeze with or without Iran. Put 132 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 1: that in context for US, it's they announced a freeze 133 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 1: with the Russians some time ago, but did anybody actually freeze? Really, 134 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 1: nothing's happened. What was announced a month ago was was 135 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: sort of a provisional freeze. That's what the Saudi's and 136 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 1: russ And said. UH. It was a provisional freeze UH 137 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: contingent on other producers UH, including Iran joining them. So 138 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 1: the development UM in recent days has been that it's 139 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 1: become pretty clear that Iran is not going to participate 140 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 1: and then Saudy just said, you know, we'll go ahead anyway. 141 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 1: But I think I think it's really important to remember 142 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 1: this is pretty much a gesture UH in terms of 143 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 1: real barrels, real supply, it's not going to do a 144 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 1: darn thing, um. So this is really about market psychology, Mike, Michael, 145 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 1: I don't have a lot of weight for percentage changes 146 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 1: with oil with a huge objectory in the technical construction 147 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 1: of the market right now. Are you, in society general 148 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 1: willing to say oil's hit a bottom. We do think 149 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: oil has hit a bottom. The only risk would be 150 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 1: a big wave of risk aversion, which is really what 151 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 1: drove most of the downturn in December, January and February. 152 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:37,679 Speaker 1: Absence that we think UH oil has hit a bottom. 153 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:40,199 Speaker 1: At the same time, there's not much of a fundamental 154 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 1: underpinning right now, so we are looking for a little 155 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 1: bit of a pullback in a second quarter UM, and 156 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 1: we're fairly cautious for the rest of the year, and 157 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: we think that is going to be around thirty eight 158 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:54,080 Speaker 1: bucks in the second half around not too far from 159 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 1: where we are now, Michael. Thank you so much. Michael 160 00:08:56,360 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: Whitner with this kind of oil research society general. UH, 161 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: with a lot to talk about here. We'll get him 162 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 1: back on for a longer discussion. UH, Mike, the President 163 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: will speak at ten ten zero ten ten am that 164 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 1: according to he was scheduled to make a speech. He 165 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 1: is in of course Havanna on his trip to Cuba. 166 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 1: Was scheduled to make a speech then, and we're told 167 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 1: by the White House that he will append some remarks 168 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 1: on what has happened in Brussels to that speech. Early 169 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:30,600 Speaker 1: this morning, at about eight am Brussels time, the height 170 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: of check in at the Brussels airport. UH, suicide bomber 171 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 1: one possibly to UH blew themselves up and killed many 172 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 1: people at the Brussels airport. About an hour later at 173 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 1: the metro stop right outside the EU Government building. Another 174 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 1: attack right now. The latest numbers we have are more 175 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:57,079 Speaker 1: than thirty dead. There isn't a specific credible number yet, 176 00:09:57,120 --> 00:09:59,320 Speaker 1: but more than thirty dead in these attacks, more than 177 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: a hundred injured. Headline again from Bloomberg. The Brussels railway 178 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: stations to reopen at four pm. Again. For those of 179 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 1: you nationwide on plane flights, you need to check with 180 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: those carriers. Delta and American Airlines have been particularly forthcoming 181 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 1: with clarity on that was some planes landing in Brussels 182 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: and others being lived to Dusseldorf. And the Brussels airport 183 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:24,440 Speaker 1: has been closed since the attacks and then so flights 184 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 1: have been diverted around Europe. But they are hoping to 185 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:32,199 Speaker 1: reopen the Brussels airports tomorrow is what they're saying, but 186 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 1: no confirmation of that. Jonathan Sterns reporting the EU Parliament, 187 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: and we thank Richard Ashworth of the United Kingdom for 188 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 1: his comments this morning that you Parliament to shut all 189 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: Brussels premises except the main site. UH. The Parliament will 190 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 1: work from home on Wednesday again. Then according to Bloomberg 191 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 1: UH News, we need to say thank you to all 192 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: of our team, particular thanks to our European team who 193 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 1: worked very hard this morning to give us clarity on 194 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: the moving events. We continue on Bloomberg Radio with continued 195 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 1: updates on the bombings in Brussels. We are produced by 196 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: y U N ken Felio, our global technical director. This 197 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 1: has been Bloomberg Surveillance h