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Speaker 1: This is The Drive with Dale Lolly and Matt Williamson

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Speaker 1: on Home of the Black and Goal Steelers Nation Radio.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Drive. I'm Dale. I'll leave here with

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Speaker 1: Matt Williamson. It is a Friday, the friday before the

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Speaker 1: penultimate how about the off week of the of the season. Here,

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Speaker 1: By this time next week we'll be talking. We'll be

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Speaker 1: well in the game prep and talking about Steelers Bengals.

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Speaker 1: But Matt, before we do that. Um, now that training

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Speaker 1: camps are over, the preseason is over, the rosters are

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Speaker 1: pretty much set. I thought we'd sitting there. I thought

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Speaker 1: we circle back around now and take a look at

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Speaker 1: season over unders. Oh good, okay. I haven't mean to

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Speaker 1: do this on my podcast, and we keep bumping it back,

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Speaker 1: and it's one of my favorite topics to be on.

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Speaker 1: I give it a lot of thought. We're gonna go.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at Vegas Insider dot com. These are they

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Speaker 1: listed teams in alphabeta order. So we'll just rolled down through.

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Speaker 1: So first up are the Arizona Cardinals. Are over. Under

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Speaker 1: is eight and a half. Wow. I thought it was

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Speaker 1: gonna be high. I don't know these numbers. I thought

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Speaker 1: it was gonna be like nine and a half. I

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Speaker 1: thought it was being cool saying underrat that. So I

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Speaker 1: know we only have so much time. We're not gonna

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Speaker 1: spend you know, ten minutes per team as we could.

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Speaker 1: But I always look at these numbers and think, what

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Speaker 1: do I think your division division records going to be?

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Speaker 1: Did you have a real hard schedule and easy schedule

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Speaker 1: those type of things. I mean, West plays West and

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Speaker 1: that makes me lean towards unders across the board with

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Speaker 1: the West. And as I always say about Arizona, they

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Speaker 1: are a rare combination of old and tiny, injury prone

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Speaker 1: and suspended, you know, like you wonder why they wear

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Speaker 1: down because they invest in a J. Green and James

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Speaker 1: Conner and Hudson and all these tiny people. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go under. I don't trust that team at all. I'm

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Speaker 1: going under that as well. I don't trust King Cliff Kingsbury. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I don't really trust Kyler Cliff the whole build. Could

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Speaker 1: he be the first coach fired this year? Oh? I

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Speaker 1: mean rules the leader in the clubhouse. But I think

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Speaker 1: Carolina might be every bit as good as Arizona, you

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Speaker 1: know what I mean, one of those expectations the other

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Speaker 1: doesn't the Atlanta Falcons. Over under is four and a half.

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Speaker 1: That's a low low note has to be the lowest.

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Speaker 1: I'm still going under under four and a half. I

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Speaker 1: would avoid seventeen games. Seventeen games. They won seven last year.

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Speaker 1: The ties, by the way, is it Chicago is probably

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Speaker 1: close to or Houston. Chicago is way higher than that.

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Speaker 1: I'm going on probably skip that one. Chicago and Atlanta

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Speaker 1: to me to the two worst teams in the league, Um,

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Speaker 1: they could easily get the five. I'd avoid it, but

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Speaker 1: I think, I mean they get the seven last year

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Speaker 1: by freak block. I mean they beat every bad team,

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Speaker 1: barely lost every good team by a million. You know,

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Speaker 1: but maybe he's a good coach, or maybe Matt Ryan

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Speaker 1: got him through all that stuff. Now he don't. I

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Speaker 1: lean towards under. Yeah, the Baltimore Ravens are ten and

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Speaker 1: a half. That's a big number. Two, that's a big number.

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Speaker 1: Does anybody in the a f C North get to

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Speaker 1: eleven wins? Right? I mean the Bengals only one ten

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Speaker 1: last year they were they were a super Bowl team.

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Speaker 1: I mean, eleven wins is an accomplishment even with a

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Speaker 1: seventeen game schedule. I'll go under. I mean being conservative,

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Speaker 1: here are they gonna win three or four games? Now?

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Speaker 1: I know? And I was torn on these last two

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Speaker 1: Arizona I didn't have any problems with. Yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: ten and a half is a big number and things

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Speaker 1: and things need to go pretty right to get to eleven.

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Speaker 1: Yeah they do. I mean, I like where that team's at.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna pick him to win the division most likely.

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Speaker 1: But they only needed two games. That doesn't go your way, mrs.

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Speaker 1: A couple of games. Again, Let's not forget they did

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Speaker 1: not win a game without Lamar last year. They well,

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Speaker 1: I think they lost their last seven seven, seven or

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Speaker 1: six and it was at least the last five it

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Speaker 1: might have been six. Yeah. Uh, the Buffalo Bills eleven

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Speaker 1: and a half. I think that's the most. Yeah, that's

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Speaker 1: gonna be tough to get to in the a f

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Speaker 1: C champion this year. The FC that the the one

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Speaker 1: seed in the FC might be an eleven win team

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Speaker 1: very well could be because they're all gonna beat up

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Speaker 1: on each other. They're gonna beat up on each other.

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Speaker 1: AFC is tough. I think they dominate their division. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the safe bed is probably under because if Allen misses

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Speaker 1: two games, you probably win, you know what I mean.

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Speaker 1: But I'm gonna go over. And I don't even think

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Speaker 1: that there. Everyone hasn't won in the power ranks and

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Speaker 1: I do too. But I don't look at them like, wow,

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Speaker 1: they have nothing wrong there. They're they're powerhouse. They're good.

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Speaker 1: They were cowboys, right right, right right, They're good. But

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Speaker 1: I think they go five and one in the division

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Speaker 1: and probably get there. Carolina over under six and a half,

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Speaker 1: I think that's a drastic over. I can see them

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Speaker 1: winning nine. Yeah, I mean they could win six and

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Speaker 1: they all get fired. They should win at least seven.

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Speaker 1: They have a line in the quarterback. Now, but you

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Speaker 1: just said that, You just said that coach who is

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Speaker 1: going to be well, he's the one in Vegas. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's the shortest off Nobody trusts him, no, but I

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Speaker 1: trust Baker In a rebuild offensive, try Baker well to

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Speaker 1: make them better on offense than they were last year.

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Speaker 1: That was the worst offense in the league. I don't

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Speaker 1: think they're gonna be the worst offense in the league.

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Speaker 1: Even McCaffrey only plays eight games and that is a

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Speaker 1: problem as well for them. The Chicago Bears under under

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Speaker 1: under six and a half that's amazing to me. They're horrible.

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Speaker 1: They're picking up anyone they can. I mean, Chicago, it's

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Speaker 1: just all stay in your head. Over unders is over

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Speaker 1: over under six and a half? How many players are

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Speaker 1: gonna claim off waivers and they're already over and they're

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Speaker 1: already over. Yeah, and that I there. I can't imagine

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Speaker 1: them being seven and ten. I can't either. I think

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Speaker 1: they're almost guaranteed a top five pick. The Cincinnati Bengals.

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Speaker 1: I'm with you on that one. The Cincinnati Bengals over

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Speaker 1: under nine and a half, Ravens or ten and a half,

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Speaker 1: I guess I'll go over. I think they win at

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Speaker 1: least ten. Yeah, they have a lot of metrics that

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Speaker 1: are concerning in terms of like injuries, but they played

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Speaker 1: their best on the stretch. I mean their last eight games.

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Speaker 1: They only lost to the super Bowl and when they

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Speaker 1: rested everybody against the Browns in Week eighteen, and I

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Speaker 1: think they're better on paper than they were, So I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go over. I think they get double digits paper champions.

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Speaker 1: That's what Leaflower said or some of that too. The

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Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns, they were off the board forever. Over eight

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Speaker 1: and a half. Are you kidding me? Are you kidding me?

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Speaker 1: I mean you got to churn out a lot of

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Speaker 1: tight games. You say, take out a loan on a

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Speaker 1: second loan on your house. Yeah, I can't. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they're not gonna have a winning year. No, they would

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Speaker 1: have to go six and oh after seven days of rest. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I don't think they beat Houston in that game. I

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Speaker 1: mean I might change my opinion at that point. I

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Speaker 1: don't even know if DeShawn watch him plays in that game. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know what I mean. I'm very confident that under

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Speaker 1: us they went in division. If they're lucky, right right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's uphill climb. The Dallas Cowboys ten and a half,

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Speaker 1: ten and a half. I think they won twelve or

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Speaker 1: thirteen last year, which I was shocked when I looked

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Speaker 1: at that. Again, I'm still going under. I'm going under

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Speaker 1: on that. There's been bad Mojo and Dallas lately. I

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Speaker 1: think they were than they were a year ago. Without

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Speaker 1: that will be better, without a doubt. I mean, he

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Speaker 1: better be better because they don't have any weapons for him.

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Speaker 1: He's to make those guys better in a left tackle. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's a big deal. And they're not going to lead

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Speaker 1: the league. In creating turnovers again, and you know things

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Speaker 1: like that. The Denver Broncos over under ten and a half,

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Speaker 1: I'm going under. I'm going underund that one. It's just

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Speaker 1: they may be a really good team, they may win

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, but you gotta play the West. In

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Speaker 1: the West. I mean, they probably split in those games

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Speaker 1: or one game over five. Let's say they give five

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Speaker 1: and five in those games. Yeah right, you know that's

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Speaker 1: hard to get to ten and a half. It's hard

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Speaker 1: to get too hard to get to eleven. I know that. Yeah. Uh.

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Speaker 1: The Detroit Lions six and a half. I think they've

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Speaker 1: been going up and up, maybe too far up now,

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Speaker 1: probably too far. Ever, keep talking about them as a

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Speaker 1: potential playoffs to you just saw you saw other than

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Speaker 1: the quarterback, they played their guys in that last game

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Speaker 1: against the Steelers quite a bit, and I think that's

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Speaker 1: the right line though. I mean, I can I can

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Speaker 1: picture a world where they're seven and ten. Yeah, seven

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Speaker 1: and nine seems like a lot, but that's what happens

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Speaker 1: when it teams on is on the hard knocks. Oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: look at it, and they get that. I mean one note,

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Speaker 1: did the NFC has one more home game? If that

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Speaker 1: help you're on the fence. But that's probably the right line.

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Speaker 1: I guess I'm under though. The Green Bay Packers ten

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Speaker 1: and a half. They went thirteen every year every year.

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Speaker 1: I think I'll go over. Yeah, they got nine nine

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Speaker 1: games at Lambeau this year. Right, that's brutal. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean they're usually eight and one in those situations, you know. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's a great point. Yeah, they held a defense the

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Speaker 1: Houston Texans over under four and a half. I'll go over.

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Speaker 1: That was the lowest before. Right, that's that's time for

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Speaker 1: the lowest. I think they squeak one. I mean they

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Speaker 1: probably beat Jacksonville once. At least we know Smith can coach. Yeah, right, right, right.

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Speaker 1: I think Mills is a quarterback. Their defense wasn't abysmal

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Speaker 1: last year. They might run the ball a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Five and twelve isn't exactly as glorious achievement. The Colts

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Speaker 1: nine and a half. Oh, that's a good number. They're

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Speaker 1: above average, but not by much. But they get to

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Speaker 1: play Houston twice and Jacksonvill twice. They get the Titans.

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Speaker 1: Now with that, I mean, the question is anybody else

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Speaker 1: in that division win more than six games? Maybe seventh

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Speaker 1: I'm definitely going seven. Might be the highest one of

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Speaker 1: those other teams wins. They might go five and one

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Speaker 1: in the division. I'll go over. I guess I think

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Speaker 1: so as well, like they could be a sneaky pick

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Speaker 1: to win to be the top seed in the f C. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's not a bad call because you're Tennessee. Just showed

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Speaker 1: us that path. Yeah, you know, beating up on your

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Speaker 1: on your division team abuse each other the same. Kansas

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Speaker 1: City Chiefs, they have the hardest schedule in the league

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Speaker 1: by most metrics, ten and a half. I have a

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Speaker 1: hard time like Denver. The Chiefs and the Chargers all

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Speaker 1: have the same over under ten and a half. Denver

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Speaker 1: in Kansas City aren't the same place. I'll take the

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Speaker 1: over still on case. I'll take the over on case C.

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Speaker 1: I think they get to eleven. I think they figured

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Speaker 1: by about mid season they're gonna be real hard to

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Speaker 1: play against. I agree, Yeah, the Chargers also ten and

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Speaker 1: a half going over. But I wish Andy Reid coach

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Speaker 1: that team, you know what I mean. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if he's a good coach or bad coach. Everyone kills

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Speaker 1: him for his fourth pound stuff. But I'm not doing

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Speaker 1: a lot of overbets on rookie year second year coaches.

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Speaker 1: I hear you, Yeah, the Rams are ten and a half.

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Speaker 1: That's an over. They play that West schedule, I know,

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Speaker 1: the West schedules are off. These these teams. Can't all

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Speaker 1: these teams in the a f C and NFC West

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Speaker 1: can't all go over. Like the Raiders have to win

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Speaker 1: like five. The ideas of figure out which one is

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Speaker 1: which one is not going to get there. This is

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Speaker 1: probably a bigger topic, but I just think the Rams,

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Speaker 1: Bucks Packers, one of them is going to slip up,

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Speaker 1: you know, like you just don't maintain three top teams

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Speaker 1: in a conference three, four or five years in a row.

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Speaker 1: The Bucks are either going to get old, the Rams

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Speaker 1: are actually have to deal with a real injury for

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Speaker 1: the first time, or Roger's lack of weapons is gonna

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Speaker 1: hurt him. I don't know which team it is, but

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Speaker 1: one of them is gonna slip up. Just figure out

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Speaker 1: which one of these. I mean, you can bet the

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Speaker 1: under on all of them, you'd probably not splitting it

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Speaker 1: right two of them hitting. Yeah, figuring out which one

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Speaker 1: is which The Raiders are eight and a half under.

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Speaker 1: They're they're the one team in the n f C West.

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Speaker 1: It isn't a ten and a half. Yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: they're clearly fourth too. Yeah, so does that mean they

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Speaker 1: win two games in the West and four and then

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Speaker 1: and then I'm strong, and then they gotta go to

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Speaker 1: play the Rams, they gotta play nine and even if

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Speaker 1: they split those games, now you're four and six. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I just think of a lack of an O line.

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Speaker 1: There is a problem to The Dolphins are eight and

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Speaker 1: a half. That's dead on. So that's five. They would

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Speaker 1: go eight and eight and have a tie. I think

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Speaker 1: that's who they are. I think they're the most middle

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Speaker 1: of the road team in the league. I guess over

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Speaker 1: that's the first time head coach to coach quarterback. Comb

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Speaker 1: Combo does not inspire offense for me, does not know.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna go under on them too. I'm

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Speaker 1: not sold on them as it. Yeah, the Minnesota Vikings

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Speaker 1: nine and a half under, So according to this, they

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Speaker 1: think the entire So the Packers are ten and a half,

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Speaker 1: the Vikings are nine and a half, and then the

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Speaker 1: Bears and Lions are both six and a half. They're

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Speaker 1: more than we thought. Yeah, there's no way all those

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Speaker 1: teams go over. No, there aren't. I'm sure you can

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Speaker 1: figure this out. If you add it all up and

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Speaker 1: bet the unders across the board, you might be guaranteed

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Speaker 1: winning money, but you don't get your money for eight

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Speaker 1: team weeks. Um. I like where the Vikes are at.

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Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna pick them to make the playoffs. Double

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Speaker 1: digit win seems a little bit. Getting to ten is tough. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go on. Dalvin Cook has in injury history

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Speaker 1: that older and yeah, right, yeah, I'm with you on

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Speaker 1: that one. The New England Patriots, I bet the eight

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Speaker 1: and a half. I am under that. I'm already on

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Speaker 1: that under them too. I don't see a winning season

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Speaker 1: by New England. No, No, I think they struggle to

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Speaker 1: get the six wins, let alone eight. Behind that he shouldn't,

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Speaker 1: but that's still not enough because they should lose ten instead,

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Speaker 1: they'll lose eight. Yeah, you know what I mean. They're

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Speaker 1: just not not a good football team. I'm actually if

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Speaker 1: they win eight, there they go over. That wasn't a

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Speaker 1: great example, but there they have six wins. Talent, he

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Speaker 1: probably got seven or eight wins out of the most coaches,

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Speaker 1: wouldn't The New Orleans Saints eight and a half. I'm over.

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Speaker 1: I think they're a playoff team, so I don't think

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Speaker 1: eight wins get you in the playoffs. I'm gonna say

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Speaker 1: they're over. Are they the best of these eight and

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Speaker 1: a half team? So the teams get that are an

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Speaker 1: eight and a half? Cleveland, the Raiders, the Dolphins, the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: and the Saints. Saints are the best of that group. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they belong in the tier above that. Yep. The Giants

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Speaker 1: seven and a half? Are you out of your mind?

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Speaker 1: They may not win in there? To win in their division?

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Speaker 1: Is Vegas deciding they want to give money away this year?

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Speaker 1: They can't get the eight No, I mean Daniel Jones

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Speaker 1: would have to be a pro bowler. That might be.

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Speaker 1: That would still probably doesn't get you there. That might

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Speaker 1: be over seven and a half. I r moves for

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Speaker 1: their receivers. That's an easy one to me. That's is blatant.

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Speaker 1: That one is God, they're not winning eight games team. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the New York Jets, I don't know what to think

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Speaker 1: about five and a half. I knew it was gonna

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Speaker 1: be low. I'm gonna go over. I'm very open to

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Speaker 1: the thought though that Zack Wilson might not be able

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Speaker 1: to play. He might stink. He might stink, he might stink. Uh, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm with you there, you know. I mean Flacco would

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Speaker 1: have to win a few Zach comes in and stinks.

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Speaker 1: Then does he get benched. Probably not. I think he's

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Speaker 1: like unbeneable at this point. That's how you lose. You're

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Speaker 1: gonna get the six You only got to the sixth though,

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Speaker 1: and they got guys. I'm gonna go over. But I

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Speaker 1: would not put money on that. The Philadelphia Eagles nine

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Speaker 1: and a half over confidently. Yeah, you're very confident in

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Speaker 1: that one. Yeah, I think they have They're great on

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Speaker 1: the lines of scrimmage. You're adding things like Bradberry and

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Speaker 1: the dude they has traded for from the Saints. You know,

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Speaker 1: I said this the other day. I don't even know

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Speaker 1: if you can bet it, but I bet it's a

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Speaker 1: super long shot betting to Kobe Dean to be defensive

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Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year. He's just gonna get protected by

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Speaker 1: all these huge Jordan Davis types like he was at

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Speaker 1: Georgia and he'll run around and now I think they're

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Speaker 1: hard to play against. Uh, that's an easy over for me.

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Speaker 1: The San Francisco forty nine and a half. I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: hesitant to tell you this, but I'm less confident about

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Speaker 1: Lance than I was poor previous to the preseason. Not

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Speaker 1: so much for fantasy, but in terms of completing passes. Yes,

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Speaker 1: his accuracy is a problem. It's a problem. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he has not been impressive in the preseason and Nell

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Speaker 1: Candy coated anyway they want. But keeping Jimmy as unbrawl

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Speaker 1: you know. Yeah, but if they go to Jimmy, they'll

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Speaker 1: win games. But was the number again, nine and a half?

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Speaker 1: That's a good one. Yeah, Vegas is smartened up. I

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Speaker 1: liked when they would do whole numbers because then you're

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Speaker 1: like the eight. Are they gonna can get the middle? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and I can push. But at nine and a half,

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Speaker 1: the difference between nine and ten is week rest in

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Speaker 1: your starters in week seventeen, you ate the bet on

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Speaker 1: that I'm gonna go under because they're in the West. Okay,

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Speaker 1: but I'll probably pick them go to playoffs. Seattle Seahawks

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Speaker 1: five and a half. They get two wins against Seattle Seahawks, probably, yeah, probably,

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Speaker 1: does Carol get I mean, are the Seahawks and Patriots

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Speaker 1: that much different in terms of who quarterback I'll give.

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Speaker 1: I'll give Matt Johns, but I mean I'm talking to

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Speaker 1: but I would much rather have, much rather have Seattle's

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Speaker 1: skill position players. They'd kill for metcalf and walking back.

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Speaker 1: I think I'm still going under, but I bet Carol

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Speaker 1: gets another win out of them, then he should. That

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Speaker 1: might go over. I think they get the least six.

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Speaker 1: That's not crazy. Yeah, it's not crazy. They win one

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Speaker 1: or two in the division because they know those guys

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Speaker 1: like the Bat, they just you know, they'll squeak one

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Speaker 1: out against the nine. And that's a tough like you're

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Speaker 1: going to Seattle. It's a tough place to play. It's

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Speaker 1: a long trip. Nine games. Area teams going there that

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Speaker 1: have never done it, you know. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Speaker 1: eleven and a half. I'm going under. Kind of like

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Speaker 1: I said before, it's like they're kind of set up

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Speaker 1: to They've just got a lot of old dudes and

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Speaker 1: now the interior of the old line has just been

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Speaker 1: blown up time and time again. Nine out of ten

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Speaker 1: things around them have been bad news. I know what

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Speaker 1: this next one is. Tampa the Titans nine and a

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Speaker 1: half under. All day under. I mean the Landry injury

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Speaker 1: adds to that too. I mean, they gonna win with

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Speaker 1: defense in a running game, and I think that formula

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Speaker 1: is gonna be tough for them. The Commanders are seven

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Speaker 1: and a half, probably under the young Chase Young stuff

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Speaker 1: is not helping. That's not great. Robinson stuff is not great.

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Speaker 1: Like they've had some pretty tough injury news already, and

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Speaker 1: Wentz Wentz does not look great. No, I think they're

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Speaker 1: better than seven and ten, but that's still a good number.

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Speaker 1: Seven and ten sounds so bad. Seven and nine didn't

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Speaker 1: sound bad. Seven and ten sounds bad. Losing double digit games, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm still going under. That's on an organization. I'm putting

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Speaker 1: money onto bail me out. That brings us to the

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers. Seven and a half, however, I mean, I

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Speaker 1: mean I made it sounds like roll over everybody. How

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Speaker 1: many wins in the division. I'm gonna say two and

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Speaker 1: a half. I bet they get to three. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think it's two or three. I mean they're gonna beat

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Speaker 1: the Browns at least once, maybe twice, maybe twice. You know, right,

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Speaker 1: they swept the Ravens last year. I mean, there's a

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Speaker 1: land on the schedule. The Jets, I like their chance

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Speaker 1: against the Patriots. They'll beat two teams at their dogs

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Speaker 1: against I mean history shows I'll go over. Does nine

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Speaker 1: wins get you in the playoffs? I think has you

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Speaker 1: in a conversation depending on who who you beat. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they have some fallback plans if I mean, obviously, if

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers gets hurt, they're not gonna get there or Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: But at least if you have with standard quarterback injury,

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Speaker 1: I think they're better equipped to deal with it than others.

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Speaker 1: That's what I don't That's why I don't get the talk.

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Speaker 1: And we'll get that. We'll do this in the next second.

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Speaker 1: We'll do this again. But I think we've talked about

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Speaker 1: this and a lot. But we're gonna do it again

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Speaker 1: because I keep hearing it. But subscribe to snr's newest podcast,

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Speaker 1: The Godfather of Pittsburgh Sports is Talking nothing but Steelers.

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Speaker 1: It's Savereign on Steelers. New episodes drop every Tuesday and Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe today. It's available on the Steelers mobile app, the

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Speaker 1: He is Matt Williamson. I am Dale Lally you're listening

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Speaker 1: to The Driver on Steelers Nation Radio. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: with more right after this