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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running again? So smooth,

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Speaker 1: so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 2: Sisting, just glorious execution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

6
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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop of mind God buddy, And

8
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Speaker 3: that's why you see nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying again the wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left to Wanda, wide eyed, drill pibus, how old

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Speaker 1: Earth big that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wondergoal, the soccer betting

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Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Liba.

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Speaker 4: I am your host and joining me as always or Mike.

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Speaker 4: Good friends and Action colleagues, BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo

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Speaker 4: and gentlemen, The weekend has finally arrived. Manchester City and

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Speaker 4: Liverpool headline a full slate of Premier League matches. Will

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Speaker 4: dive right into that one to start, and then we'll

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Speaker 4: get into the rest of the slate. Talk about some Bundesliga,

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Speaker 4: La Liga, Siria League Boom, give out our favorite underdog

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Speaker 4: bets for the weekend, and then our best bets for

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Speaker 4: the Premier League, and then we'll get out of here.

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Speaker 4: Like I said, the headliner for the weekend, the headliner

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Speaker 4: for the season, Manchester City. They're even money home favorites

27
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Speaker 4: plus one hundred hosting Liverpool plus two fifty five. The

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Speaker 4: draw here is plus two to seventy five. We're all

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Speaker 4: over the place on this one in our pre pod discussion.

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Speaker 4: So I want to start with you, Anthony, since you

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Speaker 4: are a believer in the Reds.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have much difference between these two teams

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Speaker 3: right now. I've got Liverpool slightly slightly worse, and then

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Speaker 3: you factor in home field advantage and that gets me

35
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Speaker 3: to City plus one twenty.

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Speaker 2: On the money line, they're about.

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Speaker 3: Plus one oh five, so I've got Liverpool minus one

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Speaker 3: twenty to get a point. You can find minus one

39
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Speaker 3: fifteen out there. That is as low as I would go.

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Speaker 3: I don't want to lay big juice here on Liverpool,

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Speaker 3: but my numbers suggest that Liverpool is a little undervalued,

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Speaker 3: and I'm pretty believing of that myself. The first time

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Speaker 3: these two teams played, it was super interesting because it

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Speaker 3: was really a tale of two halves. The slower the

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Speaker 3: game is, the more it favors City. They're able to

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Speaker 3: strangle possession, slow it down, crawl up the field. Liverpool

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Speaker 3: want this game to be back and forth for netic pace.

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Speaker 3: You'll be able to tell pretty quickly when you're watching

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Speaker 3: the game on Sunday who's kind of controlling it based on.

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Speaker 2: How frenetic back and forth it is.

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Speaker 3: Remember the second half, Liverpool I thought were much the

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Speaker 3: much better side, and they had two goals and Cities

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Speaker 3: scored late.

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Speaker 2: On a beauty by de Bruyne.

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Speaker 3: It was a great game, fair result in the end,

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Speaker 3: I think, but overall both sides are really healthy. We

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Speaker 3: have not seen a ton of the Thiago Fabigho Henderson midfield.

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Speaker 3: What we have seen now it has been incredibly impressed.

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Speaker 3: And again for the year, you know, I've got Liverpool

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Speaker 3: since the beginning of the year, Liverpool's plus one point

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Speaker 3: five to three x g P ninety difference City plus

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Speaker 3: one point five to eight. And then if you were

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Speaker 3: to take out man advantages, Liverpool is tiny bit ahead

64
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Speaker 3: according to the live table website and my you know,

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Speaker 3: I just really don't see a huge difference here, and

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Speaker 3: really the one big injury question mark is Ruben Dias

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Speaker 3: for City, and I think him being out hurts their

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Speaker 3: individual defending ability, which guests tested more by City or Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: So I'm taking Liverpool if you can get the one

70
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Speaker 3: fifteen or better.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I also wonder I know you talked about home

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Speaker 4: field advantage a little bit, Liverpool's traveling back from Portugal

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Speaker 4: from a Champions League spot midweek City played at home.

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Speaker 4: I do think these kind of matches, these one off matches,

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Speaker 4: it's almost like the super Bowl. Like we can always

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Speaker 4: look at predictive metrics over the long term and you

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Speaker 4: want to bet into those numbers as much as you can.

78
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Speaker 4: But for these ones, you're sizing up something that's almost

79
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Speaker 4: should be treated as a complete different scenario than you know,

80
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Speaker 4: your Woles versus Newcastle game coming up, because this match

81
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Speaker 4: is just is so important, it's so different, It's going

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Speaker 4: to be a spectacle, and I just think City's ability

83
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Speaker 4: to slow the game down does give them a pretty

84
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Speaker 4: big advantage.

85
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Speaker 5: Here. Where's Liverpool, Like, City can beat you, I think in.

86
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Speaker 4: More ways than Liverpool can, And I think that's a

87
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Speaker 4: fair thing to say. Where's Liverpool Like they need this

88
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Speaker 4: game to get off kilter? For them to have an

89
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Speaker 4: opportunity to win, and I just don't think Pep and

90
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Speaker 4: City are going to let that happen.

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Speaker 5: I like City.

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Speaker 4: I think even money is fine at home, so that's

93
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Speaker 4: where we'll be going. I think an under two is interesting.

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Speaker 5: BJ.

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Speaker 1: What do you have, Yeah, so anything pre match I'm

96
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Speaker 1: probably gonna end up passing on. I know nobody really

97
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Speaker 1: wants to sit out of the biggest match of the

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Speaker 1: entire season. The problem is is if you want to

99
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Speaker 1: look at like understat in both Liverpool and Manchester City's

100
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Speaker 1: numbers of when they're they play from behind, well it

101
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Speaker 1: doesn't really matter because they've spent like very virtually no

102
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Speaker 1: time playing from behind all season. There are a couple

103
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Speaker 1: of props that I think are kind of interesting. So

104
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Speaker 1: basically my projection it's pretty much vide on with for

105
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Speaker 1: to day is I have man City of minus one

106
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Speaker 1: o seven, so you could say a little bit of

107
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Speaker 1: value on the citizens, but without ruben ds, I think

108
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Speaker 1: that cancels out and brings us back down to plus

109
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Speaker 1: one point five over under a head around two point eight,

110
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Speaker 1: so no real value for me. What's kind of interesting.

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Speaker 1: I was looking at the pressing numbers from that previous

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Speaker 1: thing between Liverpool and City, Liverpool's pass per defensive action

113
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Speaker 1: was ten point four in City was at twenty nine,

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Speaker 1: indicating their pressing was not effective at all. And what

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Speaker 1: keeps coming to my mind when I was going through

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Speaker 1: this match was the Liverpool Chelsea match, which was around

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Speaker 1: Christmas time, I believe, where Liverpool went up to nothing

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Speaker 1: pretty early on and then Chelsea kind of stormed back

119
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Speaker 1: and was able to start controlling possession control. The match

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Speaker 1: ended up drawing too too. If Liverpool scores first, I

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Speaker 1: think I'm probably gonna hop in on City Live because

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Speaker 1: I think from that point on City is probably gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to control possession because Liverpool, I mean, both

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Speaker 1: these teams are not used to not having possession. They're

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Speaker 1: usually used to having the ball quite a bit. So

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Speaker 1: it'll be very interesting to see what happens and who

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Speaker 1: becomes more dominant, because, like Anthony said, if it's slow

128
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Speaker 1: Man said, he's going to dominate Possesson, they're gonna sit

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Speaker 1: in side the final there. It doesn't mean they're going to

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Speaker 1: create a ton of high quality chances, but they're going

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Speaker 1: to hold a large share of position. I mean, they're

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Speaker 1: averaging around seventy percent possession for the season in the

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Speaker 1: Premier League. There is one prop I do kind of like,

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Speaker 1: and it's Diego Jota anytime goal score plus two twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I think you could honestly make the argument right now

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Speaker 1: that most solid should go to the bench for this

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Speaker 1: match because Jota, Luis Dias and Mane are in better

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Speaker 1: form than him right now, and Jota has been a

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Speaker 1: big time underperformer all season long. He's gotten some of

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Speaker 1: that positive aggression back as of late. But fourteen goals

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Speaker 1: off how fifteen expected around one point seven x g

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Speaker 1: per ninety scoring rate, a which is actually second on

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Speaker 1: Liverpool behind Sala. So obviously wait till lineups come out,

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Speaker 1: but if he's starting, and especially starting up top, I

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Speaker 1: think that at plus toty twenty five, that definitely has

146
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Speaker 1: some value. Another thing I'm kind of looking at. I'm

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Speaker 1: definitely not going to play it, but I do have

148
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Speaker 1: some value on it. It's both teams to score no

149
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Speaker 1: at plus one thirty five. These all the two best

150
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Speaker 1: two s defenses in the Premier League, so both need

151
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Speaker 1: to score no. I think it is kind of interesting

152
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Speaker 1: at that good of a price, but again I'm not

153
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Speaker 1: going to probably not going to end up playing it

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Speaker 1: so but really going to be a very very interesting match.

155
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Speaker 1: And like Anthony said, the pace is going to tell

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Speaker 1: you who's going to dominate and potentially win this game.

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Speaker 3: One thing I'm concerned about with Liverpool. We've talked about

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Speaker 3: the defensive aggression. They did concede over one expected goal

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Speaker 3: to Benfica since January. Now we are at point seven

160
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Speaker 3: expected goals allowed per ninety, which is still good, clearly

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Speaker 3: one of the best in the league from Liverpool, but

162
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Speaker 3: they only conceded point two goals per ninety in the

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Speaker 3: prem I mean, it's just incredible and that is the

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Speaker 3: one scary thing that indicator. But again, if this game

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Speaker 3: is tied late, it does draw bad for either team.

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Speaker 2: It kind of keeps them both around.

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Speaker 3: I know Liverpool would probably take the draw tomorrow if

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Speaker 3: you gave it to them, but they also kind of

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Speaker 3: need to win. So it is interesting game theory wise,

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Speaker 3: who's controlling the possession in the final ten minutes, who's

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Speaker 3: really pushing for the winner. I don't know who the

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Speaker 3: answer to that is, but I think it probably is

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Speaker 3: more likely to be Liverpool.

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Speaker 1: The interesting part about that is, and I agree with

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Speaker 1: you that I think just on the surface they would

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Speaker 1: say that. But if you'll get both team schedules, Manchester

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Speaker 1: City is actually not It's actually pretty easy to end out.

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Speaker 1: They got Everton, Everton, Newcastle, Tottenham, Aston Villa, Southampton Wolves,

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Speaker 1: that's Liverpool's and then City has Wolves, Brighton, Watford, Leeds, Newcastle,

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Speaker 1: west Ham Asson Villa. So it's it's definitely much easier

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Speaker 1: for City. So I agree with you that City probably

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Speaker 1: would take the draw in this one and just try

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Speaker 1: to see it out, whereas Liverpool, I mean they could

184
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Speaker 1: potentially give it all, but I mean, not getting a

185
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Speaker 1: draw then you're basically done. So yeah, it's very interesting.

186
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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's not really in Liverpool's DNA either, I would

187
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Speaker 4: say too, right, I.

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Speaker 1: Mean, Liverpool is going to go for it either way.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So that's why I think that as we get

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Speaker 4: towards the later stages of this match, if it is

191
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Speaker 4: still in the balance, I really think that vantage goes

192
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Speaker 4: to City because for that reason, right, like it's City

193
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Speaker 4: can afford to be much more pragmatic about their approach

194
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Speaker 4: and whereas Liverpool just doesn't know how to do that.

195
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Speaker 4: So that was the point I wanted to make Another

196
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Speaker 4: point too, is I should say that so City's minus

197
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Speaker 4: two twenty five right now to win the title Liverpool

198
00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:20,199
Speaker 4: plus one sixty five City at seventy three points, Liverpool

199
00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,880
Speaker 4: at seventy two points. I would say that a loss

200
00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:26,800
Speaker 4: here for Liverpool feels like a pretty big deal, whereas

201
00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:30,200
Speaker 4: a loss for City, I don't think it's it's over

202
00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,360
Speaker 4: right because we're in the middle of I think what

203
00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:34,880
Speaker 4: will be Liverpool's.

204
00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:35,400
Speaker 5: Best stretch of the season.

205
00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:39,679
Speaker 4: They're firing on all cylinders, like Anthony says, they're overperforming

206
00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:43,480
Speaker 4: pretty big on defense, whereas City they had that little

207
00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,120
Speaker 4: wobble where they they didn't play well against everyden. We're

208
00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:49,440
Speaker 4: lucky to get the one they'll win. They drew against

209
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Speaker 4: Crystal Palace, they lost against Tottenham. For me, it feels

210
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Speaker 4: like that was probably it for City, like that was

211
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Speaker 4: their stumble. So I don't hate if Liverpool do win

212
00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,600
Speaker 4: this match, been buying a City to win the title

213
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Speaker 4: future either.

214
00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:04,880
Speaker 5: But we'll see.

215
00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:06,760
Speaker 4: I mean, this is it's gonna be a great game sun.

216
00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:10,360
Speaker 4: This will be a Sunday eleven thirty a kickoff on

217
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Speaker 4: the East Coast here in the United States.

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Speaker 1: So one quick thing, Mike uh for those out there

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Speaker 1: who may want to pay attention to this match pretty

220
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Speaker 1: closely because these two teams need the f A Cup

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Speaker 1: semi final. And I believe about a week a week

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Speaker 1: or so, Yeah, and weekend we'll be we'll be doing

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Speaker 1: this exact conversation. Yeah, exactly so, and then there's what.

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Speaker 4: Then there's a one to three chance that we do

225
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Speaker 4: it again.

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Speaker 1: Yep, it's gonna like this.

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Speaker 4: Like City Chelsea last. Yeah, it's gonna be it's gonna

228
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Speaker 4: be really interesting how this.

229
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Speaker 2: Is gonna bet the under all three games, Like this Athletic.

230
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Speaker 1: Is gonna oust City, so we won't have to have

231
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Speaker 1: that problem.

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Speaker 2: I don't know about that. Well, we'll talk about that

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Speaker 2: for Sunday.

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Speaker 1: One.

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Speaker 3: One more thing and the last thing, I kind of

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Speaker 3: think from a live betting angle, I think my favorite

237
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Speaker 3: live betting angle there there's no reason this doesn't play

238
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Speaker 3: out similarly to the first meeting for me, where it

239
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Speaker 3: is a little slow in the beginning and both teams

240
00:10:58,360 --> 00:10:59,320
Speaker 3: are feeling each other out.

241
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Speaker 2: You get this lot in a big game, and then

242
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Speaker 2: you may look to.

243
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Speaker 3: Get you know, if there's like a live one and

244
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Speaker 3: a half just before halftime, maybe and it's still nil

245
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Speaker 3: nil or we get to half at nil nil, I

246
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Speaker 3: think that's when you have to start to look because,

247
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Speaker 3: like we said, Liverpool is going to try to open

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Speaker 3: this game up as much as possible. One as much

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Speaker 3: as I respect City's ability to not allow teams to

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Speaker 3: do that, they've can see the two shots in their

251
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Speaker 3: last one hundred and eighty minutes. I do think Liverpool

252
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Speaker 3: has the firepower to break anybody open, especially with Thiago

253
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Speaker 3: pulling the strings. And he's a big piece that did

254
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Speaker 3: not play in the first meeting.

255
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Speaker 4: All right, let's park it there on City in Liverpool

256
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Speaker 4: and move on to Friday. So Friday Night Lights Newcastle

257
00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:42,840
Speaker 4: are hosting Wolverhampton the Magpies there plus one thirty at

258
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Speaker 4: home Wolve's coming back plus two to fifty that draw

259
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Speaker 4: here plus two fifteen The last three matches for Newcastle

260
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Speaker 4: excuse me up an uglyho and three wind draw loss

261
00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,880
Speaker 4: with only one point five to five expected goals created

262
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Speaker 4: across all three of those. I don't think there is

263
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Speaker 4: similar to the Wolves Aston Villa match that we talked about.

264
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Speaker 4: We all liked Wolves in that one. I don't really

265
00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:10,000
Speaker 4: understand this line. I think Wolves is being underrated. Here

266
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Speaker 4: are there flawed team, yes, but is there really that

267
00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:15,080
Speaker 4: much of a difference between Wolverhampton and Newcastle.

268
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Speaker 5: Who's a better team?

269
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Speaker 4: I would say Wolves, So plus two fifty on Bruno

270
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Speaker 4: Lajes mean seems like a little bit of a gift,

271
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Speaker 4: a second straight gift on our boys from the Black Country.

272
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Speaker 5: BJ. You coming with me?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean it is interesting because we talk all

274
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Speaker 1: the time about how I mean, Anthony has been complaining

275
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Speaker 1: I think for like two months now about the Wolves defense,

276
00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:38,440
Speaker 1: and the market just overreacts to it. I don't really

277
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Speaker 1: understand this line either. I mean the thing about, like

278
00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:44,760
Speaker 1: you mentioned, with Newcastle only two point three expectacles created

279
00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:46,800
Speaker 1: in their last four matches culminated a five to one

280
00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,079
Speaker 1: thrashing by Toddham this past week, and I think, honestly

281
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Speaker 1: they just hit a wall. They're safe from relegation, they

282
00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:53,000
Speaker 1: don't have to worry about that too much. I think

283
00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:56,520
Speaker 1: motivation level is kind of a question mark with the Magpies.

284
00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:00,160
Speaker 1: I mean, they obviously have not been good since they

285
00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:03,880
Speaker 1: lost Karen Tripper, They're still without Colin Wilson, and honestly

286
00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:07,240
Speaker 1: they've been over performing since the January transfer window. I

287
00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:10,560
Speaker 1: mean since January fifteenth. Newcast has picked up twenty points

288
00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,760
Speaker 1: in eleven matches, but their expected points is only fourteen

289
00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:17,480
Speaker 1: point one. They're also bottom five in offensive pass per

290
00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:20,600
Speaker 1: defensive action during that time frames. Even though Wolves is

291
00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:22,560
Speaker 1: going to sit back, like I mentioned last week, they're

292
00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:26,240
Speaker 1: very measured in their approach. They're playing a very compact

293
00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:28,760
Speaker 1: mid block, so you're going to get a lot of

294
00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:30,600
Speaker 1: low quality chances, but there's going to be a lot

295
00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:32,600
Speaker 1: of them, so that's why you kind of see that

296
00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:36,480
Speaker 1: type of performance. But last week, I mean the offense

297
00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:39,920
Speaker 1: kind of came alive about two expected goals, three big

298
00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:42,160
Speaker 1: scoring chances, just the second time in their last ten

299
00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:44,920
Speaker 1: matches they've actually created over one expected goal. You look

300
00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:46,720
Speaker 1: at their injury report, I mean, Ruben Neves is really

301
00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:50,360
Speaker 1: the only significant guy out, So I agree, I don't

302
00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:52,600
Speaker 1: really understand this line. I actually have Wolves is just

303
00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:56,920
Speaker 1: a slight favorite on the road at Newcastle. So plus

304
00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:58,600
Speaker 1: one and a half is at minus one forty five.

305
00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:00,079
Speaker 1: I think that's I mean, it's a little pricey, but

306
00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,640
Speaker 1: I think it's a pretty good price for Wolves who

307
00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:05,400
Speaker 1: are still motivated because they can still get inside the

308
00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,480
Speaker 1: top seven. They're just right behind United and West Ham,

309
00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:11,480
Speaker 1: So I think this is a pretty teesive price on

310
00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,480
Speaker 1: an overperforming Wolves team. So yeah, give me Wolves plus

311
00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:16,000
Speaker 1: half a goal one forty.

312
00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:19,640
Speaker 4: Five, Anthony, anything here real quick on Wolves and Newcastle

313
00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:21,440
Speaker 4: you're not in love with it, and then we'll move

314
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:22,200
Speaker 4: on to Saturday.

315
00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:22,680
Speaker 2: Yeah.

316
00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:24,480
Speaker 3: I think it's just a classic example of like the

317
00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:27,760
Speaker 3: number still matters, right, Like we all agree that Wolves

318
00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:30,480
Speaker 3: are overrated, but they're pricing that into the market. The

319
00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,600
Speaker 3: last two weeks, I mean wrote home dogs to aston

320
00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:37,400
Speaker 3: Villa and now pretty significant road dog to Newcastle, two

321
00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:39,720
Speaker 3: teams that I'm not particularly high on, two teams I'm

322
00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:43,360
Speaker 3: looking to sell, and it's pretty similar to last week.

323
00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,080
Speaker 3: I agree with you guys in the sense that, yeah,

324
00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:46,520
Speaker 3: I want to fade Wolves, but I'm not just gonna

325
00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:48,640
Speaker 3: blind faded team because they're due for regression. When you

326
00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:50,960
Speaker 3: look at the number, it's just not there for me

327
00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,120
Speaker 3: to do it. So I'm gonna sit this one out.

328
00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:54,240
Speaker 2: Wolves.

329
00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:56,000
Speaker 3: When games are tied this year, and this is where

330
00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:58,920
Speaker 3: most of the luck has come from, they are minus

331
00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:01,960
Speaker 3: expected goal difference but actually plus point six actual per

332
00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,120
Speaker 3: ninety when tied in games. So what's happening is they're

333
00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:08,120
Speaker 3: getting early lucky early in games. It's actually kind of

334
00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:09,960
Speaker 3: similar to what Tottenham was doing last year in Reno.

335
00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:11,960
Speaker 3: They would score like their first goal on their first

336
00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,120
Speaker 3: shot every every game and they would try to hold on.

337
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:18,320
Speaker 3: And unlike that Spurs team, this Wolves team has been

338
00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:21,800
Speaker 3: lucky enough to not concede ever. But Newcastle worst attack

339
00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:24,840
Speaker 3: in the league when playing from behind, so they've only

340
00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:26,840
Speaker 3: created about a half a goal per ninety so I'm

341
00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:30,640
Speaker 3: not loving this Newcastle attack whatsoever. The defense is starting

342
00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:32,080
Speaker 3: to look more like what we thought it should be,

343
00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,800
Speaker 3: and what you know, they had a good month. Let's

344
00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,360
Speaker 3: not get carried away here with Newcastle. So I am

345
00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:43,400
Speaker 3: passing and a good potential live spot maybe if if

346
00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:45,200
Speaker 3: Wolves do go down, because I do think they can

347
00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:46,840
Speaker 3: play the way back into this all right.

348
00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:49,280
Speaker 5: Saturday morning, seven thirty am kickoff.

349
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,560
Speaker 4: Ever did they're plus three sixty hosting Manchester United minus

350
00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:58,360
Speaker 4: one thirty the draws plus two eighty. The Tofees found

351
00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:01,720
Speaker 4: a way to snatch to defeat from the draws victory

352
00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:07,000
Speaker 4: once again against Burnley, and what was they They were

353
00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,720
Speaker 4: clear they were about to be seven points clear of

354
00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,400
Speaker 4: the Burnley and the relegation fight. Now the two of

355
00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:16,960
Speaker 4: those teams Burnley Everton minus one ten minus one ten

356
00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:20,200
Speaker 4: to be relegated. I think that is fair considering these

357
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:24,440
Speaker 4: schedules coming up for both sides. It's simple evidence numbers

358
00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,520
Speaker 4: look okay, or I shouldn't say that, relative to where

359
00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:29,800
Speaker 4: they are, Like they look like they should have some

360
00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,720
Speaker 4: positive regression coming, but they have so many bad players

361
00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:36,080
Speaker 4: in important positions that the mistakes just end up end

362
00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:37,320
Speaker 4: up in the back of the net at all times

363
00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,240
Speaker 4: because they happen at the worst possible time. That said,

364
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,480
Speaker 4: like this number on United is unplayable at minus one thirty.

365
00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:48,160
Speaker 4: Eric ten Hogg coming over from I X for next year.

366
00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:50,840
Speaker 5: Who knows what that does to the to the team.

367
00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,280
Speaker 4: It's it seems like this Manchester United team has been

368
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:57,440
Speaker 4: kind of weirdly affected by outside noise all season, not

369
00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,200
Speaker 4: that you can really bake that into your numbers. We're

370
00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,000
Speaker 4: pretty fortunate as well to get a draw against Leicester

371
00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:04,480
Speaker 4: in their last time out, but this is a short

372
00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:06,920
Speaker 4: rest spot for Everton. There are a lot of signs

373
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,560
Speaker 4: pointing away from Everton. I think the market will move

374
00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:13,000
Speaker 4: away from Everton, so this number actually might get high

375
00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:14,600
Speaker 4: enough where you just got to plug your nose and

376
00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,720
Speaker 4: play the toafees and that's something BJ You've been doing

377
00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:20,440
Speaker 4: this season and it has it ruined you. I guess no,

378
00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:21,280
Speaker 4: I'm gonna do it again.

379
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,639
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do it again on Saturday morning, because this

380
00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:27,199
Speaker 1: sign is a tattoo high on you, United and especially

381
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,240
Speaker 1: with Everton. The biggest thing with Everton is you mentioned

382
00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:34,520
Speaker 1: that they have underperformed relative to what they're expecting. Goals

383
00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,119
Speaker 1: are minus nineteen actual expected gold offferential, mine around a

384
00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,560
Speaker 1: minus ten expected gold differential, and that I mean we've

385
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:42,680
Speaker 1: talked about a lot. That's without Dominic Calvert, Lewin and

386
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,440
Speaker 1: Charleston move missed to combined twenty four matches this season.

387
00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:49,120
Speaker 1: But there's a chance that Yurimina makes a return, which

388
00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:52,639
Speaker 1: is just unbelievably massive for Everton. Obviously, Michael Keaton is

389
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,080
Speaker 1: going to come back from red card suspension. When those

390
00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:57,880
Speaker 1: two are playing together, Everton's only a long one point

391
00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 1: one x sheep for ninety with either with Mina out

392
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:04,200
Speaker 1: of the lineup, around one point sixty three xtre per ninety.

393
00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:06,680
Speaker 1: So with him back in the lineup, that is a huge,

394
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:10,200
Speaker 1: huge boost to Everton. And I'm just not really sure

395
00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:12,720
Speaker 1: what United has really done to be deserving of a

396
00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,560
Speaker 1: minus one thirty favorite at Goodison Park. I mean Everton

397
00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:18,320
Speaker 1: struggles against teams that press them. United's pressing numbers have

398
00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:20,280
Speaker 1: been up a little bit under Ragning, but they're still

399
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,520
Speaker 1: not anywhere near the top five or where they should be.

400
00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,400
Speaker 1: Everton struggling to create big scoring chances. Well, Manchester United

401
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:30,520
Speaker 1: has allowed the ninth most in the Premier League. Manch

402
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,679
Speaker 1: United has struggled on the road this season. There might

403
00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:34,640
Speaker 1: they have a round a minus four expected GOLDI French

404
00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:38,560
Speaker 1: of well, Everton actually has a positive expected goldiffrenchal at

405
00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 1: Goodison Park. So even though they're struggling, even though it

406
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 1: didn't look good today, even though they won the expected

407
00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:46,680
Speaker 1: goals battle but they did get two penalties. I think

408
00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:48,680
Speaker 1: this price is too high on the United. So I'm

409
00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:51,560
Speaker 1: gonna play Everton plus half a goal at plus one ten,

410
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:53,800
Speaker 1: like you said, might I might wait to get a

411
00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:57,119
Speaker 1: better number, because if Keenan and Mina are back in there, Michael,

412
00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:00,720
Speaker 1: they're drawing United at least okay, So so give me

413
00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 1: the Toffees plus half a goal plus one ten and

414
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:05,879
Speaker 1: let's get some hope that they're going to stay up

415
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:06,560
Speaker 1: in the top flight.

416
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,200
Speaker 4: The Uh. The funny thing about bet the betting market

417
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:14,200
Speaker 4: and numbers reacting to previous performances. It's like with everything,

418
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,639
Speaker 4: it seems like it's been rock bottom every game, the

419
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:20,359
Speaker 4: Palace gaming, the FA Cup, go back to you know,

420
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,840
Speaker 4: the every game and wrap up beneath this is last

421
00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:26,399
Speaker 4: couple of weeks, most of these Frank Lampard games, the

422
00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,880
Speaker 4: Tottenham game, and they're still finding a way to find

423
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,400
Speaker 4: a new rock bottom. So like, I'm trying to find

424
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 4: the right times to buy in this team, and it's

425
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 4: it's it's getting harder and.

426
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:36,119
Speaker 5: Harder and more depressing to do it.

427
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 4: But I do think that they're The difference here is

428
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:43,440
Speaker 4: like with Mina back, hopefully with a line back from

429
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,120
Speaker 4: suspension in the middle of the field, like their defensive

430
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 4: structure should be much much better and they should have

431
00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:51,159
Speaker 4: a better chance in the middle of the park against

432
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 4: against these United players.

433
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:55,920
Speaker 5: Than they would if those two guys were going to

434
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:56,200
Speaker 5: be out.

435
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,640
Speaker 4: So yeah, there's there is like a sliver of hope

436
00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:01,719
Speaker 4: here in this in this mat but it really does

437
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 4: take some moxie to get down on this team coming

438
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,480
Speaker 4: off of what we've seen from them the past month

439
00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:13,400
Speaker 4: and a half, actually since October, Anthony, you're looking at

440
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 4: it being a little bit of a back and forth battle.

441
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do think Everton will be a little better

442
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,960
Speaker 3: here than what they've looked. Bja mentioned the home away splits.

443
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:24,960
Speaker 3: You can even queue it up to just the last

444
00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:26,760
Speaker 3: three months since January.

445
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:27,879
Speaker 2: They still have a.

446
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,000
Speaker 3: Positive expected goal difference at home, so even if you

447
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 3: factor out Okay, yeah, all these injuries have happened, they're

448
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:37,000
Speaker 3: still positive plus zero point one xt G per ninety difference,

449
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,800
Speaker 3: so not bad. And United away from home have been

450
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 3: pretty pretty lackluster, like you said, so.

451
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:45,959
Speaker 2: I do think we're clearly overvalued on United here.

452
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 3: I've only got the minus one twenty, but it's not

453
00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:51,200
Speaker 3: enough for me to hop in on the Toffees here.

454
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 3: But I do think they can get on the board,

455
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:57,120
Speaker 3: so I'll be looking for a potential live both team

456
00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 3: to score. You know, I really should just sleep in

457
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 3: and stop playing these damn seven to thirty matches because

458
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 3: I never win them. But I do think Everton will

459
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:06,879
Speaker 3: get on the board here. At this United defense, I

460
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 3: thought they were going to be improved. They looked like

461
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 3: they were improved, but it has not come to fruition

462
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:11,680
Speaker 3: at all.

463
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 5: All Right, let's move on to ten am.

464
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,719
Speaker 4: Starts here the Arsenal the Gunners minus one sixty five

465
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,119
Speaker 4: at home hosting Brighton and Hove Albion five to one

466
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:21,120
Speaker 4: on the money line to draw.

467
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:21,879
Speaker 5: Us plus two ninety.

468
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:24,479
Speaker 4: It was a much better performance for Brighton than we've

469
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 4: seen over the past few weeks, but that came against

470
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 4: Norwich City and they still drew nil nil and had

471
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 4: a penalty that Neil Mapie shot into basically shot to

472
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:37,680
Speaker 4: the roof of Carrol Road. So you're getting a Brighton

473
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 4: team that looks like maybe it's rounding back into form

474
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 4: against the dead cat in the Canaries. But you're also

475
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 4: looking at maybe fade a team in Arsenal that looked

476
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,640
Speaker 4: pretty mediocre against Crystal Palace on Monday Night Football Lust

477
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:54,440
Speaker 4: three nil to Patrick Vieira's side. So I think that

478
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,440
Speaker 4: it's Brighton or nothing here at this price, five to

479
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,920
Speaker 4: one is pretty tempting on a team that profiles well

480
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,440
Speaker 4: even in their struggles like this is still a team

481
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 4: that will make should be in the green in terms

482
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 4: of betting them as underdogs against big clubs this season.

483
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 4: So I'll be looking five to one on Brighton BJ

484
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 4: as our resident Arsenal tragic.

485
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 1: Where you're going, Well, I'm trying not to freak out,

486
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 1: is what I'm trying not to do, Michael, because performance

487
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:26,879
Speaker 1: on shut out Anthony, the performance on Monday was it

488
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 1: wasn't bad. It just it was a couple of mistakes

489
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 1: that led to a couple of goals and it was

490
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,160
Speaker 1: just one of those nights as a fan you're like, wow,

491
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 1: just you know, it wasn't our night. And then Karen

492
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 1: Tierney gets hurt for the rest of the season. And

493
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,119
Speaker 1: now I'm panicking because tomy Ostu's not back yet, so

494
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 1: that means we're gonna have to go with Cedric sores

495
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,159
Speaker 1: and you know Tavaris again, Tavaries is not ready for

496
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 1: Premier League action. You saw he's the one that gave

497
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 1: up the first goal at the back on the back post,

498
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 1: just didn't go for the header, just ducked. I don't

499
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 1: know what he was doing, but give that first goal

500
00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:02,160
Speaker 1: and then didn't cover Gabrielle second one. So that's really

501
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,919
Speaker 1: concerning as far as this match is concerned. I mean,

502
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 1: Arsenal's overvalued. I'm just seeing if maybe Brighton plus one

503
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 1: gets to minus one ten, because I do think we'll

504
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 1: see a little bit of that positive aggression for Brighton

505
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 1: come back in this match. I'm just really hoping that

506
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 1: Arsenal doesn't lay, and they've been much better home than

507
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 1: on the road, so that gives me a little more confidence.

508
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 1: But I mean there might there might not be no

509
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 1: Thomas party either, so it's gonna be Shaka and the

510
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,879
Speaker 1: Conga or El Nenni in the midfield, which is obviously

511
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 1: not great going against Basuma and company. So as a fan,

512
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 1: I'm just hoping and praying to God that we can

513
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 1: get three points and move on. But Brighton definitely has

514
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 1: value here.

515
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's definitely not as straightforward as I think people

516
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,359
Speaker 4: outside of betting circles will think. And even if you

517
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 4: look at just the line, I think it's odds makers

518
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 4: are making it seem like it might be a little

519
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 4: more straightforward than it will be.

520
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:00,919
Speaker 5: And Anthony, you're on this Seagulls too.

521
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, this line's come down a little bit. You know,

522
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 3: it was minus one eighty now we're down to about

523
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,880
Speaker 3: minus one sixty five one seventy. You can still find

524
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 3: Brayton plus one at minus one twenty. I played that

525
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 3: losing Tyranny Bja mentioned it extremely underrated and how much

526
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 3: of a loss that is because of the drop off

527
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 3: to Tavars. Not only that, but his chance creation. I mean,

528
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:20,719
Speaker 3: he gets up up the pitch on the left a lot.

529
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 3: He's very good at crossing. Tavarus is a bit of

530
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 3: a wild card. He's kind of all over the place

531
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 3: when he gets the ball to dribble, love to dribble.

532
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 2: To nowhere, a lot of nowhere.

533
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that really led to a couple of counters

534
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 3: for Palace where he was just losing the ball in

535
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:35,879
Speaker 3: the middle of the pitch. So a little bit of

536
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,400
Speaker 3: a question mark there. And Party, I mean, they're not deep,

537
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 3: they're their weakest area in terms of depth is the

538
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 3: midfield and part Day being out somebody we've kind of criticized,

539
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 3: I think in the past. But when he's on the

540
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 3: pitch he's quite good. It's when he's in the fact

541
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 3: that he's never on the pitch. Well, it doesn't look

542
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 3: like he's going to play now. Based on the preliminary report.

543
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 3: He may be out up to a month is what

544
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 3: the initial report was.

545
00:24:58,280 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 5: We don't know.

546
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 3: Bj called top four race over said derby won't matter.

547
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 3: We have a derby date May eleventh.

548
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 2: It's going to be a fun one.

549
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 1: Tottam's already even be in the top four. I told

550
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 1: you it wasn't going to matter, right, that is true.

551
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:12,160
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll have it wrapped up by then.

552
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 3: But yeah, my projection I make Arsenal minus one thirty five,

553
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 3: thirty eighth got them at minus one forty, so all

554
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 3: of the systems bja as well minus one thirteen. So

555
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 3: we're all lower on the gunners than the market here.

556
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 2: And it's really our love for Brighton.

557
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:29,199
Speaker 3: But Brighton last five matches one point two goals per

558
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 3: ninety expected, only scoring about point two. So I understand

559
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 3: they can never finish and maybe they are just cursed.

560
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,679
Speaker 3: Maybe their players just don't have finishing ability. And Malpey

561
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:38,199
Speaker 3: is mallpay.

562
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 2: But either way, I think this.

563
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 1: Is too expensive.

564
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 3: Brighton was the better team in the first meeting as well.

565
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 3: They dominated a large structure of that. I'm expecting a

566
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 3: barely even game. I've got Arsenal by point seven, so

567
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,639
Speaker 3: I'm going to take the one goal, all right.

568
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 4: Let's move on to Southampton there plus three fifty at

569
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 4: home taking on Chelsea minus one twenty.

570
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 5: The draw here is plus two sixty five.

571
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,679
Speaker 4: This is a tough spot for the Blues, who are

572
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 4: coming off a loss at home to Real Madrid in

573
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 4: the Champions League, a loss to Kareem Benzima, I should

574
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 4: say in the Champions League when they played pretty well,

575
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 4: we're unlucky to lose, and now they got to go

576
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 4: to Southampton for what is basically a meaningless Premier League

577
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 4: game for both teams. Southampton's comfortably mid table safe and

578
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 4: Chelsea looks like a lock for that number three spot.

579
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 4: I guess you can make an argument that they gotta

580
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 4: take care of business to get through top four, but

581
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 4: they will, and I think Southampton's matches have kind of

582
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 4: reflected that they're kind of lais they fair approach? Lately

583
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 4: They've been wide openlyately three point three total XG on

584
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,160
Speaker 4: average in the less six matches, both teams scoring all

585
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 4: over the place.

586
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 5: It's it's been a little messy.

587
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 4: But I do think that Chelsea, and similarly to I

588
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,479
Speaker 4: was saying with like Man United, but this this one,

589
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 4: having more to do with the spot, is it's un

590
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 4: they're unplayable at at this number on the road because

591
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,479
Speaker 4: Southampton is is we know they're a dangerous side. They

592
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 4: can as meaningless as the game is like you're going

593
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 4: to get up for a Chelsea match, You're going to

594
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 4: get up for a match against the top four. So

595
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,360
Speaker 4: I do think there's a sliver value on Southampton. We'll

596
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 4: see where this number goes. But no no interest for

597
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 4: me in Chelsea at all. Here, Anthony, anything for you

598
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 4: in this one?

599
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. Nothing on Chelsea. God damn me for

600
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:21,639
Speaker 2: betting that team. That's on me.

601
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 3: I've been calling them a luck box all year and

602
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 3: they're finally regressing and today was embarrassing. I mean, nobody

603
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 3: marking Karen Benzima. The third goal we don't have to

604
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 3: talk about, but the first two goals, zero marking Conte,

605
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 3: You getting pushed way too far up the pitch. I

606
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 3: understand they needed to kind of win this, but you

607
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 3: know what was I've never seen Kante that positionally unaware.

608
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 2: It was very bizarre to me.

609
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 3: It took them off at half as one of the

610
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,639
Speaker 3: worst games I've ever seen him play. So I was

611
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 3: very upset, of course, and Chelsea tickets are probably dead.

612
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 2: To advance as well.

613
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 3: But as we look at this match, yeah, Southampton we're

614
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 3: due for some regression too, Like they ran ridiculously hot.

615
00:27:58,080 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 3: I mean they had to think twenty three goals in

616
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 3: eleven games off of fifteen expected and just out of

617
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 3: control good, and now they've kind of come back down

618
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 3: to earth, so we all kind of thought they would.

619
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 3: I project Chelsea minus one fifteen. I don't really have

620
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 3: a lot of value in this, and I know you

621
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:13,719
Speaker 3: mentioned it's kind of meaningless. I mean, if they were

622
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 3: to lose, I know they're running is easier. They're better

623
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 3: team than Arsenal and Tottenham, but it's not done if

624
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 3: they lose because Arsenal and Spurs are both favored to

625
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 3: win this weekend and then all of a sudden the

626
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,160
Speaker 3: gap is two points. So I don't think they're safe safe,

627
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 3: but they're safe enough to overlook this game and get

628
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 3: ready for Tuesday against Real Madrid. So I lean toward

629
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 3: the over and I would lean towards Saints, but overall,

630
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 3: the numbers just not quite there for me, and this

631
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 3: is Saints team is not when I'm really looking to

632
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 3: back right now at the current number.

633
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 4: Okay, let's move to Watford in Leeds here. A couple

634
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 4: weeks ago, this would be a relegation six pointer. Leeds

635
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 4: looks pretty safe now because Everarden the are terrible. Watford,

636
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 4: though they're minus six hundred to go down. I think

637
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 4: that's a little high because they still have a match

638
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 4: against Burnley coming up. I still have a match against

639
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 4: Everton come up, so they're not I want to say

640
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 4: that they're out of it, especially with the way Roy

641
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 4: Hodgson hasn't playing, getting results in games where they shouldn't be.

642
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 4: Watford's plus one seventy five here Leads is a slight

643
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 4: slight slight road favorite plus one sixty five the draws

644
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 4: plus two forty. The Hornets are two two and six

645
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 4: win draw loss under Hodgson his ten games, six goals for,

646
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 4: seventeen goals against, but due for some positive regression in

647
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 4: both areas, nine point six expected goals for thirteen point

648
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 4: eight expected goals against in those ten matches. Meanwhile, Leads

649
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 4: since their managerial switch two wins, one draw, two losses,

650
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,959
Speaker 4: six goals for eight goals against, but they're expected goal

651
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 4: differentials five and a half goals better than their actual

652
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 4: goal differential.

653
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 5: I think that this one sets.

654
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 4: Up pretty well for Leads, especially with the way they're

655
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 4: playing under Marsh. They're healthy, they have game winners, the

656
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 4: type of players like Rafina who can win win a

657
00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 4: game in what should what Watford will want to be

658
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 4: a rock fight. So I don't think that Leeds is

659
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 4: out of range here all, even as a as a

660
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 4: road favorite. So that's where I'll be going the Peacocks,

661
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 4: Jesse Marsh and the Peacocks, Anthony will go right back

662
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 4: to you for Leeds and Watford.

663
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, these are two teams I'm looking to

664
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 3: bet on as we go down the stretch here. I've

665
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 3: talked about this completess ago. Watford is a team who

666
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 3: you just kind of gave out the numbers for it.

667
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 3: But Watfords a team who's played better than their numbers

668
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 3: in the last month ish and I've been impressed defensively especially.

669
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 3: I thought the match against Liverpool last weekend was one

670
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 3: of the better defensive game plans I've seen Against Liverpool.

671
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 2: The Reds were a little flat.

672
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 3: But coming off the international break. But again that game

673
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 3: was one nil deep into the eighty eight to eighty

674
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 3: ninth minute. There was a penalty on a corner guy

675
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 3: got tackled, but otherwise, I mean they only conceded about

676
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 3: point nine non penalty expected goals to Liverpool and they

677
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 3: had two to one on ones with Allison and we didn't.

678
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,479
Speaker 3: Of course they didn't score them for us, but they

679
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 3: were very competitive in that game, and it kind of

680
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 3: gets into it into the belief that I'm looking to

681
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 3: buy this team, but I'm also trying to buy leads,

682
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 3: and the numbers pretty close to write for me. I

683
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 3: do make leads a small favorite minus one oh eight

684
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 3: on the drawno bet line, so a tiny bit of

685
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 3: value maybe, but unless you can find like a minus

686
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:14,479
Speaker 3: one hundred out there, I probably wouldn't play it all right.

687
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 4: Moving on again, let's go to aston Villa plus two

688
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 4: twenty hosting Tottenham Hotspur plus one twenty five. The draw

689
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 4: here is plus two fifty aston Villa over there last

690
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 4: nine draw loss loss when win loss loss loss, So

691
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 4: streaky little bunch here. Once again, like Southampton, they're comfortably

692
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 4: mid table. Nothing to really play for for this club except,

693
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 4: you know, Steven Gerrard trying to continue to implement his

694
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 4: system for his first full season presumably next year.

695
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 5: I think the number is maybe a.

696
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 4: Little bit inflated on Tottenham, but it's really really hard

697
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 4: to step in front of them right now with the

698
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 4: way they're going. Antonio Kante looks like he's got his

699
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 4: boys full steam ahead towards like BJ said, the top four,

700
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 4: anything for you on this one, BJ, Villa and Spurs.

701
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 1: No, I will end up ultimately passing. I'm not stepping

702
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 1: in from Tottenham right now. This is a tricky spot

703
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 1: for them, similarly to how Arsenal going the road ass

704
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: and Villa, because the Villa defense is obviously improved a

705
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: lot under Stephen Gerrard, and I could definitely see a

706
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 1: situation where we come out of here with a one

707
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 1: to one draw. I definitely don't think Spurs are going

708
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 1: to continue beating people three, one, five to one, and

709
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 1: we'll see when we get to North London Derby. But

710
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 1: it's ultimately a pass for me and an Aston Villa

711
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 1: maybe potentially take a look at the under I definitely

712
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,560
Speaker 1: don't want to do that, but like I've been mentioning

713
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 1: quite a bit, Aston Villa's actual goals and their matches

714
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 1: are quite higher than what expected, around two point seven

715
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 1: actual per match only around two point two expected total,

716
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 1: so you can potentially see some regression they're Tottenham based

717
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 1: on they're expected. They're not going to continue to score

718
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:49,239
Speaker 1: five goals, sorry Anthony, but ten is under But other

719
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: than that has.

720
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 5: Passed for me, Anthony, anything for you here.

721
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 3: I lean towards Spurs very slightly, just based on my number,

722
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 3: and I also lean toward the under based on my number.

723
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 3: This is the first time shown, guy, I want to

724
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 3: Spurs under.

725
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 2: I don't even I'd have to go. Look, I don't

726
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 2: even know. It's been a long time.

727
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 3: I did think this team has been a truck and

728
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 3: you know, finally we're getting to the point now where okay,

729
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 3: maybe they've.

730
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 2: They've fully positively aggressed back.

731
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 3: I mean, Kine still has the ways to go and

732
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 3: it looks like he's really, you know, on the verge

733
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 3: of a heater here. So that is a scary thought

734
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 3: with the way Caine and Son are able to finish,

735
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 3: because Tottenham over the last four years, when they have

736
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 3: these two together, it's almost hard to model them because

737
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 3: of how generally good they are at finishing relative to

738
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 3: xt every single year, and so it makes it very

739
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 3: hard to say, okay, well, I project you know, one

740
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 3: point three goals here.

741
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 2: Because you almost have to bump it.

742
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 3: So but then it's dangerous to you know, get into that,

743
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 3: and then you're you're kind of tweaking things. So I

744
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 3: don't really like to get into that, but I do

745
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 3: make Spurs plus one of five here, so I'm a

746
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 3: tiny bit under the market still on them. But overall

747
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 3: I don't really want to play this because I do

748
00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 3: think Villa's one of the most direct counter attacking teams

749
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 3: in the league, and I think if you are effective

750
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 3: at that, that is still very much a way to

751
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 3: attack this Tottenham team, because one, they're so good in

752
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 3: transition that they do tend to have the fullbacks get

753
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 3: caught a little far up the pitch and then you

754
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 3: can get the center back wide center backs isolated and

755
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 3: then there's problems. They still have some peace defensive issues, so.

756
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 2: Villa a little interesting to me.

757
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 3: But again the numbers I show Valuan Spurs, so I'm

758
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 3: staying away here for now.

759
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 4: All right, Sunday morning now a nine am kickoff between

760
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 4: Leicester City at the king Power there plus one thirty

761
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 4: five hosting Crystal Palace plus two fifteen. The draw here

762
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:41,240
Speaker 4: is plus two forty Leicester City. As I said earlier,

763
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 4: they were a little bit better against Manchester United and

764
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 4: a little unlucky not to get three points, but in

765
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 4: the three games before that they allowed six total expectacles

766
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:53,879
Speaker 4: against and on the season they are seventeenth in non

767
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:57,240
Speaker 4: penalty expectacles allowed fourteenth and big chances allowed in eighteenth

768
00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 4: and shots for ninety.

769
00:34:58,080 --> 00:34:58,959
Speaker 5: This is just not a good.

770
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:02,720
Speaker 4: Defensive side, a team that needs to outscore its defensive issues.

771
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 4: There's gonna be a tough proposition against Crystal Palace, who

772
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 4: are top six and nine penalty expected, goals allowed for ninety,

773
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 4: shots for ninety and big chances allowed. We saw what

774
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 4: Crystal Palace is capable of over on Monday Night against Arsenals,

775
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 4: so I think this one is pretty easy where to

776
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 4: know where we're going here? The Eagles at plus two

777
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 4: fifteen against a lesser side that is being a little

778
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 4: overpriced coming off of a one to one draw against

779
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 4: Manchester United.

780
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 5: BJ back on Palace.

781
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:33,879
Speaker 1: Yeah definitely. I mean, if you want to say there's

782
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,359
Speaker 1: a couple concerning things for Palace is that, Yeah, they're

783
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 1: away form has been pretty bad all season long, but

784
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,360
Speaker 1: in lesser did get Johnny Evans back along with Sionco.

785
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 1: But with that being said, like you mentioned, one point

786
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 1: seven expected goles allowed per match, six point nine expected

787
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 1: allowed in their last four for Chrystal Pine and big

788
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 1: thing for Crystal Palace in this one is in their

789
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 1: four to three free system. A lot of what the

790
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 1: creating they do is down the flanks with you know,

791
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 1: Zaha and Jordan Ayu out on the side swinging and

792
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,399
Speaker 1: crosses or you know, entering the box from out there.

793
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:11,920
Speaker 1: Palace completes the second most crosses for ninety minutes and

794
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 1: then Lester allows the seventh most, and like you already mentioned,

795
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 1: Lester allowing the fifth most big scoring chances. So not

796
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 1: really that gread of a matchup for Lester's defense. And

797
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 1: when these two met back in October, Lester blew a

798
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 1: two goal lead at Selhurst Park and was pretty thoroughly

799
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,959
Speaker 1: dominated by Crystal Palace thirty shackreateing actions to just nine

800
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 1: for Lester. Christal Palace hout touched them in the penalty

801
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 1: area thirty seven to fifteen. Palace had a pass per

802
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:38,840
Speaker 1: defensive action six point eight. And that pressing thing is

803
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 1: very important in this one because Palace they're not the

804
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:46,320
Speaker 1: most successful pressing team, but they press at the second

805
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: highest rates in the Premier League. Well, Lester has just

806
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 1: been average at playing through pressure all season long. And

807
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 1: I mean we've talked about the Palace defense at nauseum,

808
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 1: but top five in every single defensive metric, and they've

809
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 1: been still especially good as of late point nine eight

810
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 1: xg loud per match in their last eight matches, and

811
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,320
Speaker 1: Lester has been out over forming a tad bit slightly

812
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,400
Speaker 1: offensively six goals off of four point five expect in

813
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,879
Speaker 1: their last five. So I mean I have this match

814
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 1: projected pretty much right out of pick them. So Crystal

815
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 1: Palace on the drawn o bet line is plus one thirty.

816
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 1: I think there's some decent value on Eagles there, So

817
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 1: I'm going back to Patrick Vieira's men again on jown

818
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 1: a bet at plus one thirty.

819
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:26,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, Palace is among the teams that has treated us

820
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 4: pretty well a season, so Anthony, there's no reason not

821
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 4: to give them another shot here.

822
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 2: Right, no reason not to. Yeah, plus one thirty five

823
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:34,359
Speaker 2: on the drawn no bet.

824
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:36,839
Speaker 3: I like money line, I like plus the quarter, whatever

825
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:37,319
Speaker 3: the hell you.

826
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 2: Want to bet. I show a lot of value on Palace.

827
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 3: I got them barely an underdog and they're you know,

828
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 3: plus one thirty five, so I only have them plus

829
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 3: one o four. So it's actually my biggest edge of

830
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 3: the weekend. Palace are the better team for me and

831
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 3: we talk about spots. Okay, Arsenal, they had this big

832
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 3: winning against Arsenal. Well, Leicester has a Conference League match

833
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 3: two legs coming up, so they're right in the middle

834
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,800
Speaker 3: of it. And if we're being honest, I mean, the

835
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 3: Conference League is their only chance at Europe, so why

836
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:06,799
Speaker 3: not go try to win it? They have a real

837
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:08,320
Speaker 3: shot to win it. You look at the teams in it,

838
00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:10,319
Speaker 3: and nobody none of them are like, oh man, Leicester

839
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:13,080
Speaker 3: can't beat them. So I think they're going to be

840
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 3: more focused on the Conference League here, one eye on that.

841
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:19,800
Speaker 3: In Palace again, their way form is concerning, but I

842
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,839
Speaker 3: can't pass this up, especially with the set piece edge.

843
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 3: I think Palace will have crossing edge and Lester. Remember

844
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:27,880
Speaker 3: when we thought Lester's offense is gonna be a problem.

845
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 3: I mean that was early in the season and we

846
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 3: were wrong on that one. I mean obviously didn't hold,

847
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 3: but the defense is just major concerning.

848
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, if if you can find a prop, I don't

849
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 1: know if this's going to be out there, and if

850
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 1: anybody who works as sports book is listening and can

851
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 1: get this prop up for us, either team to score

852
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 1: a corner would be a great prop to bet. I

853
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:50,320
Speaker 1: think both these teams have combined to allow what twenty

854
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 1: seven goals off of corners, So yeah, set piece issues

855
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 1: for both. Obviously, Lester's actually off corners is much higher

856
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 1: than Crystal Palace and Aper some positive aggression, but still

857
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: a lot of issues on sepiece. So even if Fluster

858
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 1: goes up, this game is definitely not a hand in

859
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 1: every corner could be live to score.

860
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 4: Chris A Palace in good form. Brentford also in good form.

861
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:16,840
Speaker 4: They're plus one eighty at home hosting west Ham in

862
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 4: a London derby. The Hammers plus one sixty five lukewarm

863
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 4: road favorites, the draws plus two twenty five. We're recording

864
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 4: this before West Ham plays Leon in their Europa League battle.

865
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 4: I think it's similar to the game we just talked about.

866
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 4: Brentford is an undervalued underdog and they're at home. They're

867
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 4: three to zero to one in their last four wind

868
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:41,279
Speaker 4: draw loss and they've created at least one point seven

869
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 4: to two expected goals four in all four of those matches,

870
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 4: and they've won the expected goals battle by at least

871
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 4: one goal and.

872
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 5: Three of the four.

873
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 4: And they're coming off a match where they dominated Chelsea

874
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 4: they put up a huge crooked number against the champions

875
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 4: of Europe. They've looked a really strong outfit going forward

876
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 4: since Christian Erickson came into this and Ivan Tony's been healthy.

877
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 4: Those two look like a match made in heaven. And

878
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 4: this is a tough schedule spot for west Ham Leon

879
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 4: on Thursday, then Brentford then Leon again. Wonder where their

880
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:12,879
Speaker 4: focus will be, especially coming off of how this match

881
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 4: against Leone will go. So I think Brentford plus one eighty.

882
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,280
Speaker 4: I don't think this number is going to hang around

883
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 4: that longer, that much longer, but I don't hate playing Brentford,

884
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 4: even as a slight underdog like plus one sixty or

885
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:26,399
Speaker 4: better here at home.

886
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 5: So give me the bees. Back on the bees, BJ

887
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 5: back on the Bees.

888
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:32,319
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, I mean you hit the nail on the head.

889
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:35,239
Speaker 1: Is that Brentford. The reason they've gone this front is

890
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 1: they were due, obviously for some positive aggression, but they're

891
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,359
Speaker 1: finally healthy in the addition of Christian Eriks, and that's

892
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:42,359
Speaker 1: just been huge for them. I mean, we've talked about

893
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:45,719
Speaker 1: it a lot, but they play so much better at

894
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:47,879
Speaker 1: the Brentford Community Stadium than they do on the road.

895
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 1: In their last four home matches where they're at full strength.

896
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 1: I'm not counting the match against Newcastle where they got

897
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 1: a red card in the twelfth minute. They have a

898
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 1: plus eight point five expected gold differential per ninety minutes

899
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 1: and have created six point eight infected goals in those

900
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 1: four matches. That's really encouraging in really good numbers. And

901
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 1: the thing about this match is where Brentford tends to

902
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 1: struggle is when they play against teams that can press

903
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:13,320
Speaker 1: them effectively, they tend to falter to that.

904
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 4: Well.

905
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:17,239
Speaker 1: West Ham is definitely not that team. They're sixteenth in

906
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 1: both passes for defensive action and pressures success rate and

907
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 1: west Ham honestly has just been in really weird form

908
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 1: over the last two months. Since the beginning of February,

909
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:27,879
Speaker 1: they have a minus one point eight expect a gold

910
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 1: defential in the Premier League. They're only averaging point nine

911
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:33,120
Speaker 1: to four xtually per match over that timeframe, when before

912
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:36,959
Speaker 1: February they were having around one point six expected goals

913
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 1: per match. They've also lost four street on the road

914
00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 1: in the Premier League and they have run of minus

915
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,280
Speaker 1: five expected gold in evential away from the London Stadium.

916
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 1: So this is a great spot for Brentford, especially with

917
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 1: west Ham, like you said, playing in an Europa League

918
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 1: match against Leon on Thursday. So I mean Brentford John

919
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 1: o'bett at plus one hundred, I have them projected as

920
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 1: a slight favorite. So love the Bees the John o

921
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 1: bett line at plus one hundred.

922
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:02,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, Anthony, I think it's gonna be pretty hard to

923
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 4: keep you off the Bees as well.

924
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 3: And right, pretty mad, I don't have the money line,

925
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,080
Speaker 3: and we'll get to the underdog segment in a little bit,

926
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:10,359
Speaker 3: but pretty mad, I didn't take the money line last week.

927
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:12,959
Speaker 3: That one was staring me in the face. I didn't

928
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:16,359
Speaker 3: have it, but the Bees did cash and I make

929
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 3: them a minus one ten favorite. Brentford's minus two expect

930
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 3: the Gold difference for the season, west Ham is plus two.

931
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:25,360
Speaker 3: You factor in home field, you would assume that Brentford

932
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,759
Speaker 3: would be a marginal favorite. They're really not, and the

933
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:30,800
Speaker 3: reason for that, I think is the Gold difference is

934
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:34,479
Speaker 3: significantly in obs directions. West Ham is overperforming by about

935
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 3: nine goals, almost all in the attack, so they're up

936
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 3: to about plus eleven goal difference, and then at the

937
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 3: other end, the minus two for Brentford all the way

938
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 3: down to minus eleven because it's in variant that's gone

939
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 3: against them and we've talked about that at nauseum. But

940
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 3: I think the biggest key here is Ericson improving this attack.

941
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:51,320
Speaker 3: What happened with this team is they would get disconnected

942
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:54,760
Speaker 3: between in Buemu and Tony and they did have injuries

943
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 3: as well. Ericson is the link right and that was

944
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 3: what he was for Tottenham and that's what he does

945
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 3: so well is his ability to connect the midfield to

946
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 3: the attack. He's one of the best tens in the

947
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 3: world in my opinion, and so that's where I think

948
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 3: this attack improves, and that's where I like to bet them.

949
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:14,400
Speaker 3: And I had this spot circle weeks ago. I was

950
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 3: looking at fade west Ham went down the schedule, I

951
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 3: was like, oh, where's a good spot away at Brentford

952
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 3: is the spot and so I love the.

953
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 5: Bees all right.

954
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,840
Speaker 4: The last Premier League match we'll talk about before you

955
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 4: get into the rest of Europe. Man North City plus

956
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 4: one eighty five playing for Burnley coming off the rousing

957
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 4: victory over Everdon at turf Moore plus one seventy on

958
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 4: the road. The jow is plus two fifteen. Burnley are

959
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:42,320
Speaker 4: dreadful like they're not. They haven't been good this season

960
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 4: at all, which makes Everden blowing a two to one

961
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 4: second half lead to them even more excruciating. And I

962
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 4: don't know, what's another situation where I don't know how

963
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 4: much there really is between these two sides, especially that

964
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 4: North City. Sure they're a lock to go down, it's not.

965
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:00,440
Speaker 5: Done yet though.

966
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:02,400
Speaker 4: If they are going to have a great escape, like

967
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 4: the motivations here, it starts with a game against one

968
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 4: of the teams you're chasing. So I don't think that

969
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,719
Speaker 4: this is just going to be a typical, you know,

970
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 4: play out to straing match from the Canaries, who are

971
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:14,879
Speaker 4: o two and six wind draw loss in their last

972
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 4: eight with only five goals for, eighteen goals against and

973
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:21,600
Speaker 4: a minus sixteen expected goal differential. However, before that that

974
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 4: Everdent match, Burnley had it scored in over four hundred

975
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 4: minutes and they were zero and four wind draw loss

976
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 4: with e goals against. So this is probably going to

977
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 4: be a situation where Burnley is going to be overvalued

978
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:35,759
Speaker 4: on the road against Norich City.

979
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 5: And I don't hate it, but.

980
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 4: I don't think that this plus one to eighty five

981
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 4: is the bottom of the market. For nord City coming

982
00:44:43,120 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 4: off of the impressive win for Burnley. I think we

983
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:47,760
Speaker 4: will see a little bit of an overreaction and Norich

984
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,719
Speaker 4: could get a little bit closer to two hundred at home,

985
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 4: which would be wonderful. So I'm looking towards the Canaries.

986
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:57,799
Speaker 4: I'm praying they win for my topees as well, and yeah,

987
00:44:57,920 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 4: I mean it will be an interesting one. I think,

988
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:04,799
Speaker 4: actually a sneaky, sneaky interesting game right before Manchester City

989
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:07,320
Speaker 4: and Liverpool play at the opposite end of the table.

990
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 5: BJ Burnley Norwich City.

991
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 1: I mean, you think I hate to do this too,

992
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna have to disagree. I think the price

993
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:16,359
Speaker 1: is actually pretty cheap on Burnley on the run. I mean,

994
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 1: Norwich they're gonna get relegated. It's just a matter of

995
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:22,480
Speaker 1: time right now before it comes officials. So I'm really

996
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:25,920
Speaker 1: not sure where their motivation level is at, because I

997
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 1: mean either way, I mean, we've talked about nose and

998
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 1: we don't need to go into too much detail, but

999
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 1: they're by far and away the worst team in the

1000
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 1: Premier League minus one point one expect to go to

1001
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 1: the frenchal for ninety minutes. Burnley only sitting at minus

1002
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 1: point six per ninety From a matchup perspective, I mean

1003
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 1: this is as good as it gets for Burnley. I mean,

1004
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 1: Norwich worst offense in the Premier League. They're horrible on

1005
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 1: set pieces. Last seven matches, they've only had one big

1006
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:53,720
Speaker 1: scoring chance and CONTs heated thirteen of them. Burnley basically

1007
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 1: lives on big scorches. Norwich allowed the most shots inside

1008
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 1: the six yard box. That it's exactly what Burnley's offense

1009
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 1: is designed to do. I have Burnley projected as a

1010
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:05,120
Speaker 1: plus one thirty nine favorite on the roads, so Drono

1011
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,439
Speaker 1: Bett at minus one p fifteen and I think does

1012
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 1: have some value unfortunately, but it's becoming hard to find

1013
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 1: spots to fade Norwich because they're obviously the teams are

1014
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:18,320
Speaker 1: so overpriced against them because they're prety much aready relegated.

1015
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:22,320
Speaker 1: I think this is a spot where the market hasn't

1016
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 1: really reacted to the Burnley win because before the match,

1017
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 1: I mean, Burnley hasn't moved at all since the win

1018
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:29,719
Speaker 1: against Everton, which is kind of shocking to me. So

1019
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 1: I'm on the I'm on Shan dyches men in this match, all.

1020
00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 4: Right, Anthony, real quick before we move on to the

1021
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 4: rest of Europe. Anything for Burnley and Norch Yeah.

1022
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:39,879
Speaker 3: I think in total is a little low. Both teams

1023
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:42,239
Speaker 3: just score minus one fifteen, similar to today. I ended

1024
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 3: up playing it.

1025
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:45,800
Speaker 2: The numbers got so low on that total, and I

1026
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 2: don't know if they're pricing in that.

1027
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 3: These teams are just going to come out and be

1028
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 3: conservative because it's a relegation six pointer. But I mean,

1029
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:54,359
Speaker 3: I do think Norwich can get on the board here.

1030
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:57,000
Speaker 3: Burnley's defense, like you mentioned, not great and so I

1031
00:46:57,040 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 3: would lean that way, but I'd find a hard press

1032
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 3: betting this game.

1033
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:03,640
Speaker 4: All right, let's move out to the Bundesliga. Then we'll

1034
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 4: give out our favorite bets here. We'll give out our

1035
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 4: favorite bet in La Liga Syria, a league won't give

1036
00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 4: out an underdog, and then our best bet in the

1037
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:13,399
Speaker 4: Premier League for the week, and then move on Bundesliga

1038
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 4: BJ your favorite bet.

1039
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Berlin Darby hurta versus Union. I love Union,

1040
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 1: blend drawn no bet at minus one fifteen and this hurt.

1041
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:23,400
Speaker 1: Their Berlin team is really really bad and they are

1042
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:27,799
Speaker 1: in grave danger of getting relegated. Amount of minus twenty

1043
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 1: one expect gold differential and twenty eight matches is really

1044
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:33,440
Speaker 1: really bad, just five points in their last eleven matches.

1045
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:37,520
Speaker 1: This Union Blin team, which is just really really solid

1046
00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 1: team in the middle of the table. They don't generalize shots,

1047
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:43,080
Speaker 1: you know, they're fourteenth and shots per ninety But what

1048
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:45,719
Speaker 1: they do do well is they get a ton of

1049
00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:48,000
Speaker 1: crosses in the penalant area, actually the most per ninety

1050
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,400
Speaker 1: minutes in the Bundesliga. And they create a ton of

1051
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 1: big scoring tenches. That's two areas that Hurder Berlin has

1052
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:56,279
Speaker 1: been really really bad at this season. You could potentially,

1053
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 1: I think this line is kind of factoring in motivation

1054
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 1: and desperation hurt the Billin. I mean, Union Blen's pretty

1055
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 1: comfortably in the middle of the table with no real

1056
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:07,880
Speaker 1: I mean they have somewhat of a shot at Europe,

1057
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 1: but not really. But don't you think that they would

1058
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,719
Speaker 1: relish at the chance to send their rival down to

1059
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 1: the second division. So I think motivation is going to

1060
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:19,080
Speaker 1: be here, really high here in the derby. I mean

1061
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 1: I have Union Billain projectives of minus one or two

1062
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:23,239
Speaker 1: favorite on the road, so JOHNO Bett and minus one

1063
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:26,719
Speaker 1: fifteen for me for Union Billain, all right, I'll go next.

1064
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 5: I like our boys for Mines.

1065
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 4: Mines are plus one ninety five taking on Clone nine

1066
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:37,320
Speaker 4: thirty am kickoff on Saturday. Mines under Bose fence, and

1067
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:39,399
Speaker 4: we've talked about them a lot. We love them here.

1068
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 4: They're first in big scoring chances lap third and non

1069
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 4: penalty expected goles allowed, fourth in shots for ninety. Clones

1070
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 4: defense is middle of the pack, while Mines' offense is

1071
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:50,880
Speaker 4: also pretty impressive. Six in big chances four seventh and

1072
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:53,719
Speaker 4: non penalty expectacles for and third and chats for ninety.

1073
00:48:53,760 --> 00:48:55,920
Speaker 4: This is a complete team and that's why we like

1074
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 4: betting on them. Plus one ninety five I think is

1075
00:48:57,680 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 4: a good price. E've been on the road, so give

1076
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:04,280
Speaker 4: me minds back on Mines, Anthony, what about you, Bja.

1077
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 3: Just a quick note about Ugnon and Heerta. I mean,

1078
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:09,160
Speaker 3: un Jon's first time ever in the Bundesliga. They have

1079
00:49:09,239 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 3: a chance to relegate their big rival who has been

1080
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 3: a mainstay in the top flight. So it's a pretty

1081
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:16,279
Speaker 3: interesting narrative game and I'm actually going to be very

1082
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 3: excited to watch that one. I'm going with Mines too,

1083
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 3: John O Bett plus one to ten. It's a classic

1084
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 3: bi Loo sell high. I'm selling this Coln team which

1085
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:27,600
Speaker 3: did lose last weekend but overall has not been particularly impressive.

1086
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 3: They're one of the bigger overperformers in all of in Germany,

1087
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 3: and a lot of it has come to Anthony Madest

1088
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 3: who's been excellent, but he's been in and out of

1089
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 3: the lineup lately and he's kind of regressed and this

1090
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 3: attack just doesn't have a ton to like without him,

1091
00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:42,560
Speaker 3: whereas Michael has already given his ode to Mines Well.

1092
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:44,960
Speaker 3: They had another unfortunate loss today in which they were

1093
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 3: the better side against Osburg on the road. They dealt

1094
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:50,839
Speaker 3: with a COVID issue kind of hurt them a little bit.

1095
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:52,879
Speaker 3: They fell down the table. They had an unlucky loss

1096
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,239
Speaker 3: to Dortmun. They had an unlucky loss to Osburg. But

1097
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 3: this this Mins team played really well at the weekend

1098
00:49:58,080 --> 00:50:01,080
Speaker 3: at Gladbach, and I think he's undervalued. I make them

1099
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:03,120
Speaker 3: a favorite, so I'm taking them plus one ten on

1100
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:03,920
Speaker 3: the drawing, no beadline.

1101
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:06,280
Speaker 5: Lovely stuff. Let's move on to La Liga.

1102
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:08,719
Speaker 4: Another team we love on the show Athletic Club bill

1103
00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:11,440
Speaker 4: Bao there plus two twenty five playing another team we

1104
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 4: love on the show via Real twelve thirty pm kick Live.

1105
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 2: For the yellow submarine. Yeah, low submarine.

1106
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 1: What a performance.

1107
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 2: That was amazing today that was amazing.

1108
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:24,320
Speaker 1: Should have won like five nothing, but what a performance.

1109
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 4: It was a terrific performance and one like a true

1110
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:29,920
Speaker 4: over better if you listen to if you listen to

1111
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 4: our podcast from.

1112
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:35,719
Speaker 5: On Sunday, uh just wraved about you would have been

1113
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 5: on the right.

1114
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 3: Side of But I hope you ignored our Chelsea conversation.

1115
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:40,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, exammediately thereafter.

1116
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 3: Just cut the pod right after the fur real talk.

1117
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 3: And we are geniuses.

1118
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:47,120
Speaker 1: We got you know, we got benza Mud. Okay, it happens.

1119
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:47,719
Speaker 5: We did.

1120
00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 2: I even joked about not being worried about getting Benzamud.

1121
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:51,719
Speaker 2: But we got way more than Benzamun, I.

1122
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:53,680
Speaker 4: Think, and I think I noted that you just tip

1123
00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 4: your cap to benzam when he bens some most here,

1124
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:57,839
Speaker 4: so it was like, you know, we called it as

1125
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 4: as well as you could. Meanwhile, I'm fading vi a

1126
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:03,920
Speaker 4: real this weekend. Bill bowis plus two twenty five.

1127
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:05,399
Speaker 5: I think that is way too high.

1128
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:08,800
Speaker 4: Last four matches for Athletic Club, they are back to

1129
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 4: their defensive form zero point six expected goals on average

1130
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:15,879
Speaker 4: per match two point twenty four expected goals for per match.

1131
00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:18,440
Speaker 4: They've been really, really good and this is just a

1132
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:22,959
Speaker 4: terrible spot for Via Real after beating Bayern Munich at home,

1133
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:25,839
Speaker 4: coming back to La Li go to play Athletic Club

1134
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 4: bill Bao and then having to go back to or

1135
00:51:28,680 --> 00:51:31,520
Speaker 4: go to Germany for the second leg. So I'm going

1136
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:33,080
Speaker 4: to play the spot here. I'm going to play a

1137
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 4: great team in a great spot bill Bao plus two

1138
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:38,080
Speaker 4: twenty five agus vi O Real BJ your favorite let

1139
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 4: Lego bet.

1140
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 1: Yeah. So last week in France, i think I'm gonna start,

1141
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:44,239
Speaker 1: might have to copyright this or trademarket or whatever the

1142
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:46,840
Speaker 1: pick that you just set the notifications for and just

1143
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:48,759
Speaker 1: hope to god you don't get one until the final

1144
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 1: whistle because I'm going oh Soasuna olavease on Sunday morning,

1145
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 1: both teams to score no at minus one p thirty.

1146
00:51:57,280 --> 00:51:59,680
Speaker 1: These are two of the worst offenses in LA League,

1147
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 1: both BOTTOMN five and non penalty expected goals, but the

1148
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:06,040
Speaker 1: os Soon defense has been very good when they don't

1149
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:09,040
Speaker 1: have to play good competition. In twenty three matches against

1150
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 1: the non top four, oh Soon is only lining around

1151
00:52:12,200 --> 00:52:15,840
Speaker 1: one point zero five expected goals for matchbull now enters

1152
00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:18,319
Speaker 1: one of the worst offenses in the in La Liga,

1153
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:21,640
Speaker 1: because Alabase has only created over one expected goal four

1154
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 1: times in their last sixteen matches. When these two teams

1155
00:52:24,640 --> 00:52:27,560
Speaker 1: met earlier in the season, oh soon one two nothing,

1156
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:31,840
Speaker 1: only one point five total expected goals created, only thirty

1157
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 1: nine total touches in the penalty. They're only nineteen box

1158
00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:36,920
Speaker 1: centuries in o sooner matches this year, both teams of

1159
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:39,880
Speaker 1: scorers only hit in fourteen of thirty. But more importantly,

1160
00:52:40,320 --> 00:52:42,879
Speaker 1: both teams have only created at least one expected goal

1161
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 1: in eleven of their thirty matches, so I have the

1162
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 1: both team to score. No line projected minus one sixty six.

1163
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:50,759
Speaker 1: So the current line of minus one thirty I think

1164
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:53,440
Speaker 1: has some values. So set your notifications and let's hope

1165
00:52:53,480 --> 00:52:55,240
Speaker 1: to god we don't get one until the final whistle.

1166
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:57,800
Speaker 5: All right, Anthony, what do you have for us in Liga?

1167
00:52:58,520 --> 00:52:58,719
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1168
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 3: You know, anytime you got a chain to bet on

1169
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:03,279
Speaker 3: a team who's lost five in a row and bet

1170
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 3: against a team who's won five in a row, you

1171
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:08,440
Speaker 3: have to do it. Not actually, but I do make

1172
00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:13,560
Speaker 3: my Orca a slightly undervalued side. This weekend, Atletico also

1173
00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:17,280
Speaker 3: in the sandwich spot, safely in the top four attack

1174
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:21,920
Speaker 3: has regressed positively considerably now, but they've scored fifty six goals.

1175
00:53:21,960 --> 00:53:25,319
Speaker 3: Their fifty seven goals rather and overperformed well over their

1176
00:53:25,320 --> 00:53:28,480
Speaker 3: expected goals by almost ten and so I think Majorca,

1177
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:31,640
Speaker 3: who plays much better on the island, difficult travel spot

1178
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:34,719
Speaker 3: for Atletti. I'm taking them plus a half to get

1179
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:35,200
Speaker 3: a result.

1180
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 2: Hopefully it goes better.

1181
00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:38,560
Speaker 3: Than Osasuna, who all of a sudden forgot how to

1182
00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 3: play defense last weekend.

1183
00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:41,680
Speaker 5: All right, let's move on Syria.

1184
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:45,520
Speaker 1: A Bija Napoli Fiorentina under two and a half goals

1185
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:48,160
Speaker 1: at even money, two of the best defenses in Italy.

1186
00:53:48,280 --> 00:53:51,160
Speaker 1: Squaring off should be a low events type match. Napoli

1187
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:55,160
Speaker 1: I believe still best defense in Europe, alonging on like

1188
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:57,960
Speaker 1: point seventy four non penalty expected goals per match, while

1189
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:02,239
Speaker 1: Jorentina only around one point zero seven. Napoli number one

1190
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:04,880
Speaker 1: and expected goal is allowed big scoring chance, loud and

1191
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 1: second in crosses allowed in their eighteen yard box, which

1192
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:11,400
Speaker 1: is key against Fiorentina, who completes the third most crosses

1193
00:54:11,600 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 1: in Syria. If Jorantina, on of the other hand, actually

1194
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:16,520
Speaker 1: the number one team in Syria A in shots, A

1195
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 1: loud P NINEI and box entries loud, so gonna be

1196
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:22,279
Speaker 1: very difficult for both teams to actually create some chances. Also,

1197
00:54:22,320 --> 00:54:25,480
Speaker 1: the pace of this match is going to be incredibly slow.

1198
00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:28,919
Speaker 1: Napoli leads Syria A in terms of ten plus pass

1199
00:54:28,960 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 1: sequences and build up attacks Fjorentina also top five offensively

1200
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:35,399
Speaker 1: in both those categories, and then both defenses are also

1201
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:37,600
Speaker 1: first and second in terms of pressure success rates. So

1202
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:39,960
Speaker 1: it's gonna be really difficult for both these offenses to

1203
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:42,200
Speaker 1: actually create something of value. So I only have I

1204
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 1: actually have one point nine to seven goals projected, so

1205
00:54:45,880 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 1: under two and a half goals at even money I

1206
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:48,240
Speaker 1: think has some value.

1207
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:50,320
Speaker 5: Anthony, anything for you in Italy?

1208
00:54:50,640 --> 00:54:54,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm taking to Reno plus a half at minus

1209
00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:56,920
Speaker 3: one twenty or better. I can't get there on the

1210
00:54:57,000 --> 00:55:01,200
Speaker 3: number on Milan and Milan had a very poor performance

1211
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:04,200
Speaker 3: against Bologna. They failed to score at home, and again

1212
00:55:04,280 --> 00:55:06,880
Speaker 3: I think it's the title pressure, and look they were

1213
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 3: due for regression too, so I'm not gonna pretend that

1214
00:55:08,760 --> 00:55:11,440
Speaker 3: that doesn't he also exist. But Milan are now the

1215
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 3: title favorites. They are claiming to a lead here, and

1216
00:55:14,160 --> 00:55:16,360
Speaker 3: every one of these games. They're going to be a

1217
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:19,880
Speaker 3: little overpriced because of this must win type narrative that

1218
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:21,799
Speaker 3: you're gonna see, and I can't get there on the number.

1219
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:23,600
Speaker 3: I've only got Milan at forty five percent to win.

1220
00:55:24,200 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 3: They're priced at about fifty to fifty one, and so

1221
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:29,480
Speaker 3: I show value on Toreno. I've got to Reno with

1222
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:31,480
Speaker 3: a pretty good chance at fifty five percent. So I'm

1223
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:33,279
Speaker 3: going to take the minus one twenty or better and

1224
00:55:33,520 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 3: ride on the best defense in the league besides Napoli, who.

1225
00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:40,280
Speaker 2: Has been excellent.

1226
00:55:40,360 --> 00:55:42,560
Speaker 3: They play a lot of grinded out kind of games.

1227
00:55:42,560 --> 00:55:44,680
Speaker 3: When these two teams played earlier this year, it was

1228
00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:46,400
Speaker 3: very even game. I didn't want to know to Milan,

1229
00:55:46,520 --> 00:55:49,040
Speaker 3: but very even game. I think to Reno gets a point.

1230
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:52,040
Speaker 4: All right, let's venture over to France here, bja anything

1231
00:55:52,120 --> 00:55:53,279
Speaker 4: for you and legal Yeah.

1232
00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:56,439
Speaker 1: Strasburg John o'betts minus one fifteen at home against Leon.

1233
00:55:56,520 --> 00:55:59,000
Speaker 1: I don't think people realize, but Strasbourg is actually really

1234
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:01,200
Speaker 1: close to getting into the top three and potentially in

1235
00:56:01,200 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 1: the champions Like they're only two points behind ren and

1236
00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:06,440
Speaker 1: guess what they deserve it because they are fourth in

1237
00:56:06,520 --> 00:56:09,279
Speaker 1: France and expected goal offerential and they're one of the

1238
00:56:09,320 --> 00:56:11,840
Speaker 1: best home teams in in League UN I mean Strasbourg

1239
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:15,880
Speaker 1: plus eight point two x G differential per ninety, averaging

1240
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:19,000
Speaker 1: around one point seven expected goals per match at home.

1241
00:56:19,360 --> 00:56:21,840
Speaker 1: The main reason they've been so good offensively is because

1242
00:56:21,840 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 1: they're third and big scoring chances forty four in the season,

1243
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:26,719
Speaker 1: and a lot of those big scoring chances come from

1244
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:28,400
Speaker 1: the flanks in their three to five to two system,

1245
00:56:28,920 --> 00:56:31,040
Speaker 1: with their wingbacks getting up the pitch to supply crosses

1246
00:56:31,080 --> 00:56:34,560
Speaker 1: in the box. Their second in terms of crosses completed

1247
00:56:34,600 --> 00:56:37,839
Speaker 1: into the box. The Layon defense they Layold's been playing

1248
00:56:37,880 --> 00:56:40,520
Speaker 1: better as of late, but still overall for the season

1249
00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:44,080
Speaker 1: seventeenth and big scoring chances allowed thirteenth and crosses loud

1250
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:46,719
Speaker 1: in their eighteen yard box. So I don't think Strasburg's

1251
00:56:46,719 --> 00:56:49,479
Speaker 1: gonna have a lot of trouble creating high quality chances.

1252
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:52,279
Speaker 1: And it's a sandwich spot for Leone. They have to

1253
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:54,000
Speaker 1: travel to London and take on west Ham in the

1254
00:56:54,000 --> 00:56:56,279
Speaker 1: Europa League and then back to France for a very

1255
00:56:56,440 --> 00:56:59,439
Speaker 1: very critical match on leg on because Leon is sitting

1256
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:02,800
Speaker 1: at ninth and they need points desperately. But their form

1257
00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:05,799
Speaker 1: away from home has been pretty bad. All season long

1258
00:57:05,880 --> 00:57:09,560
Speaker 1: minus four expected Goldiffrenchial. Strassburg also a top five defense

1259
00:57:09,600 --> 00:57:12,279
Speaker 1: in terms of expectacles, loud shots, loud for ninety and

1260
00:57:12,440 --> 00:57:15,480
Speaker 1: box enter slots. This is a really really difficult spot

1261
00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 1: for Layon and I have Strasburg projected as a plus

1262
00:57:17,560 --> 00:57:19,800
Speaker 1: one eighteen favorite, so I love him on the DRAWNO

1263
00:57:19,840 --> 00:57:21,240
Speaker 1: bet line at minus once fixteen.

1264
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:25,360
Speaker 4: Okay, now it's time to move on to our favorite underdogs.

1265
00:57:25,400 --> 00:57:30,520
Speaker 4: Became really close last week, uh, Bologna, so so close

1266
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:34,520
Speaker 4: neil nil draw for Bologna ended up derailing the three

1267
00:57:34,640 --> 00:57:35,320
Speaker 4: leg money.

1268
00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 3: They should have scored and they didn't deserve to win

1269
00:57:37,120 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 3: the match, but they should have gone out one. No,

1270
00:57:38,400 --> 00:57:40,080
Speaker 3: they had like three or four really good chances early,

1271
00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:42,600
Speaker 3: came up short, and then the second half Palace took

1272
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:44,040
Speaker 3: the big lead, and I was like, okay, we got

1273
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:44,720
Speaker 3: Palace Wolves.

1274
00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:47,040
Speaker 2: We had gotten in already like ninety three to one.

1275
00:57:47,960 --> 00:57:48,280
Speaker 5: Uh, and.

1276
00:57:49,840 --> 00:57:53,000
Speaker 3: People, we've had a I mean, the closest one we

1277
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:55,320
Speaker 3: had was Vanetzia blowing that two goal lead, which there

1278
00:57:55,440 --> 00:57:56,520
Speaker 3: whatever indebted.

1279
00:57:56,240 --> 00:57:59,080
Speaker 2: We had that one one I think the six six

1280
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:01,080
Speaker 2: two goal leads, but you got you got a two

1281
00:58:01,120 --> 00:58:01,760
Speaker 2: goal lead to hold.

1282
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:04,400
Speaker 1: Last week, Beach I know I was a little nervous

1283
00:58:04,440 --> 00:58:05,439
Speaker 1: that it wasn't gonna happen.

1284
00:58:05,440 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 2: Watch the end of that game.

1285
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:06,920
Speaker 5: They did it with blow it.

1286
00:58:07,360 --> 00:58:10,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, this this week's parably won't be as exciting. There's

1287
00:58:10,240 --> 00:58:12,200
Speaker 4: no eight to one underdog in there, though. I'm sure

1288
00:58:12,200 --> 00:58:14,320
Speaker 4: I could find what if I looked hard enough. But

1289
00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 4: let's start with you, Bjay.

1290
00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:18,040
Speaker 1: Well, let's go back to the Well. How about Wolves

1291
00:58:18,080 --> 00:58:20,280
Speaker 1: plus two thirty five on the road against Newcastle. We've

1292
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:22,480
Speaker 1: already talked about it, but this line's a little crazy.

1293
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:26,200
Speaker 1: I think Newcastle has kind of hit a wall as

1294
00:58:26,280 --> 00:58:28,560
Speaker 1: of late. I mean the culminated in that five to

1295
00:58:28,640 --> 00:58:30,840
Speaker 1: one loss. That's hot in them this past weekend. They're

1296
00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:32,920
Speaker 1: safe from relegations. I think motivation is kind of a

1297
00:58:33,000 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 1: question mark for them. Yes, Wolves has overperformed drastically this

1298
00:58:36,400 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 1: year year, but last week they had a pretty good

1299
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 1: performance against a good aston Villa defense. Around two expected goals,

1300
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:44,320
Speaker 1: four and three big scoring chances, so there's no reason

1301
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:47,000
Speaker 1: why they can't do it. Actually sat James's Park on

1302
00:58:47,200 --> 00:58:49,360
Speaker 1: Friday afternoon, so let's hopefully we can kick it off

1303
00:58:49,920 --> 00:58:51,080
Speaker 1: with a win on Friday afternoon.

1304
00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:53,520
Speaker 4: I'll be taking our boys from Bill Bao from the

1305
00:58:53,600 --> 00:58:56,080
Speaker 4: Besque country there plus two twenty five against our other boys,

1306
00:58:56,200 --> 00:59:00,720
Speaker 4: via Reah via Real the season forty five points, Athletic

1307
00:59:00,720 --> 00:59:04,320
Speaker 4: Club billbo forty four points according to understat Viareal fifty

1308
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:08,400
Speaker 4: point seven expected points Athletic Club Bill Boo fifty point

1309
00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:11,840
Speaker 4: six expected points. So very very little has separated these

1310
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:14,080
Speaker 4: two teams all season, and.

1311
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:17,080
Speaker 5: I'd like the spot for bill Bao.

1312
00:59:17,200 --> 00:59:21,480
Speaker 4: With Via Real coming back from a emotional victory over

1313
00:59:21,560 --> 00:59:24,120
Speaker 4: Bayern Munich and the Champions League, They'll be traveling to

1314
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:28,440
Speaker 4: Bavaria in the midweek after this match, so I'll take

1315
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:30,840
Speaker 4: Bill Boo, a team that has allowed zero point six

1316
00:59:31,040 --> 00:59:33,520
Speaker 4: expected goals on average per match over the last four

1317
00:59:33,600 --> 00:59:35,919
Speaker 4: match at the same time creating two point two four

1318
00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:36,560
Speaker 4: on average.

1319
00:59:37,080 --> 00:59:38,280
Speaker 5: Great team, great spot.

1320
00:59:38,320 --> 00:59:42,040
Speaker 4: Give me Bill Bao plus two twenty five, Anthony your

1321
00:59:42,040 --> 00:59:43,000
Speaker 4: favorite dog at.

1322
00:59:42,920 --> 00:59:44,760
Speaker 3: The rate of being repetitive, I'm just gonna say it's

1323
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:47,080
Speaker 3: to Reno plus two ninety five. Just talked about the match,

1324
00:59:47,880 --> 00:59:50,320
Speaker 3: like them two minutes ago. Still like to Reno plus

1325
00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:51,000
Speaker 3: two ninety five.

1326
00:59:51,280 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 1: I also like Terreno this weekend.

1327
00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:55,160
Speaker 4: Love it all right, Let's move on to our favorite

1328
00:59:55,200 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 4: bets in the Premier League for the match week coming

1329
00:59:58,360 --> 01:00:00,600
Speaker 4: up at a very important match week for all of us,

1330
01:00:01,040 --> 01:00:03,960
Speaker 4: for the league in general, especially for everything, but most importantly,

1331
01:00:04,000 --> 01:00:06,080
Speaker 4: I guess City in Liverpool and Tody to serve with you.

1332
01:00:06,400 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, excited for City in Liverpool, but I'm taking Brighton

1333
01:00:08,840 --> 01:00:13,760
Speaker 3: plus one minus one twenty against Arsenal on Saturday. The

1334
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:16,320
Speaker 3: Gunners are coming off of a brutal loss on the

1335
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 3: road at Crystal Palace, but they're pretty short handed. They're

1336
01:00:18,560 --> 01:00:21,320
Speaker 3: not going to have Tomoyasu and Kieran Tierney, they're two

1337
01:00:21,480 --> 01:00:24,440
Speaker 3: best fullbacks, and they don't really have great depth behind them,

1338
01:00:24,760 --> 01:00:27,480
Speaker 3: and they're missing their center midfielder, Thomas Party. They don't

1339
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:30,400
Speaker 3: have much depth behind him, so they're two weakest areas.

1340
01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:32,720
Speaker 3: Not having depth behind them a bit of a concern.

1341
01:00:33,120 --> 01:00:37,400
Speaker 3: And Brighton continues to underperform their expected goals numbers. They've

1342
01:00:37,480 --> 01:00:40,480
Speaker 3: only scored zero point two goals per ninety in the

1343
01:00:40,560 --> 01:00:44,400
Speaker 3: last month despite expected about one point two, so you'd

1344
01:00:44,440 --> 01:00:47,160
Speaker 3: expect some positive regression for the Sea goals here. The

1345
01:00:47,200 --> 01:00:49,160
Speaker 3: Seagals were the better team the last time these two

1346
01:00:49,200 --> 01:00:51,760
Speaker 3: teams met. I've only got Arsenal favored by about point

1347
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:54,840
Speaker 3: seven goals and so I'm going to take Brighton plus one.

1348
01:00:54,920 --> 01:00:57,080
Speaker 3: I think this ends in a draw more often than

1349
01:00:57,120 --> 01:00:59,680
Speaker 3: it's a route for Arsenal, So give me the Sea

1350
01:00:59,760 --> 01:01:01,080
Speaker 3: goals on the road.

1351
01:01:01,320 --> 01:01:02,200
Speaker 5: All right, I'll go next.

1352
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:04,480
Speaker 4: My best bet in the Premier League this week is

1353
01:01:05,200 --> 01:01:07,320
Speaker 4: evident No, I'm just kidding. It's Crystal Palace there plus

1354
01:01:07,400 --> 01:01:10,680
Speaker 4: two to fifteen against Leicester City on Sunday morning at

1355
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:14,160
Speaker 4: nine am Eastern Well. Lester looked an improved side against

1356
01:01:14,200 --> 01:01:15,040
Speaker 4: Vances United in the.

1357
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:15,640
Speaker 5: Last time out.

1358
01:01:16,080 --> 01:01:18,360
Speaker 4: There are three games before that they allowed six total

1359
01:01:18,440 --> 01:01:20,720
Speaker 4: expected goals and on the season they ranked seventeenth and

1360
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 4: non penalty expected goals allowed, eighteenth in shots per ninety

1361
01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:28,440
Speaker 4: and fourteenth in big chances allowed. Leicesterre is a type

1362
01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:30,880
Speaker 4: of team that needs to outscore its defensive flaws, and

1363
01:01:31,080 --> 01:01:33,560
Speaker 4: doing that against Crystal Palace is easier said than done.

1364
01:01:33,880 --> 01:01:36,320
Speaker 4: Palace is top six and non penalty expected goals allowed,

1365
01:01:36,360 --> 01:01:39,080
Speaker 4: big chances allowed, head shots per ninety. So I'll take

1366
01:01:39,400 --> 01:01:43,200
Speaker 4: Patrick Vieira's always improving Crystal Palace I plus two to fifteen,

1367
01:01:43,320 --> 01:01:46,240
Speaker 4: even on the road against Leicester City, a team that

1368
01:01:46,680 --> 01:01:47,800
Speaker 4: we find overrated.

1369
01:01:48,160 --> 01:01:49,560
Speaker 5: BJ close it.

1370
01:01:49,600 --> 01:01:52,479
Speaker 1: Out Renford John A Bett plus one hundred at home

1371
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:56,160
Speaker 1: against west Ham. Brentford saling finally starting to see come

1372
01:01:56,200 --> 01:01:58,760
Speaker 1: to fruition that positive aggression we've all been talking about

1373
01:01:58,800 --> 01:02:00,560
Speaker 1: for a long time. Three wins in the last four

1374
01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:03,880
Speaker 1: matches plus two point one expected goal differential seven point

1375
01:02:03,960 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 1: four expected goals in those four matches. The key to

1376
01:02:07,040 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 1: that is the emergence of Christian Rickson, who has been

1377
01:02:09,760 --> 01:02:12,400
Speaker 1: on fire since he start got back into lineup for

1378
01:02:12,440 --> 01:02:15,800
Speaker 1: the Bees. This is a situation where we have a

1379
01:02:16,040 --> 01:02:19,920
Speaker 1: good match of in terms of home road splits. West

1380
01:02:19,920 --> 01:02:22,200
Speaker 1: Ham has struggled away from the London Stadium around a

1381
01:02:22,280 --> 01:02:25,440
Speaker 1: minus five expected gold differential, Brentford around a plus three

1382
01:02:25,520 --> 01:02:28,680
Speaker 1: point five expected gold differential at the Brentford Community Stadium.

1383
01:02:29,000 --> 01:02:31,880
Speaker 1: Brentford also tends to struggle against teams that can press

1384
01:02:31,920 --> 01:02:34,920
Speaker 1: them successfully. West Ham is not that team. Their sixteenth

1385
01:02:34,960 --> 01:02:37,840
Speaker 1: and passed for defensive action and precious success rate. This

1386
01:02:37,960 --> 01:02:40,160
Speaker 1: is also a Sandwich spot for west Ham. They have

1387
01:02:40,240 --> 01:02:44,240
Speaker 1: a Europa League match against Leone on Thursday, so the

1388
01:02:44,360 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 1: rest advantage is going to be with Brentford, So give

1389
01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:48,840
Speaker 1: me the Bees. Dron O Bett at home at plus

1390
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:49,680
Speaker 1: one hundred, all.

1391
01:02:49,600 --> 01:02:52,480
Speaker 4: Right, and that wraps up another episode of wonder goal

1392
01:02:52,800 --> 01:02:55,360
Speaker 4: for BJ Cunningham, for Antony Dubundo, who wish you the

1393
01:02:55,400 --> 01:02:57,360
Speaker 4: best of luck with your bets this weekend and we

1394
01:02:57,360 --> 01:03:00,080
Speaker 4: will see you on Monday morning for more champions s

1395
01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:00,720
Speaker 4: Princhman

1396
01:03:03,520 --> 01:03:05,400
Speaker 5: Of BOSM of Membershi