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Speaker 1: This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.

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Speaker 2: What is up, straight Firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight

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Speaker 2: Fire for Wednesday, October sixteenth. A great day, and not

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Speaker 2: just because the New York Jets secured DeVante Adams via trade,

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Speaker 2: just like this podcast predicted. I think yesterday, right after

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Speaker 2: the game, it was pretty clear Jets had to do something. Also,

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Speaker 2: it is my brother's birthday, so if you see him

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Speaker 2: out there in the streets, give him a shout out.

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Speaker 1: Obviously he's not in your streets. He's yeah.

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Speaker 2: Anyways, shout out to my baby bro.

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Speaker 1: But what a listed. The NFL.

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Speaker 2: Buyer season has begun. The Jets annie up by getting

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Speaker 2: DeVante Adams. The Buffalo Bills, who beat the Jets got lucky.

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Speaker 2: They just added Amari Cooper via trade. Hello, Hello stretched

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Speaker 2: the field guy. Oh my gosh. That is a dangerous

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Speaker 2: move for Buffalo. I like it a lot. I actually

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Speaker 2: think the Buffalo Bills adding Cooper is bigger than the

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Speaker 2: Jets adding Adams. I'll tell you about that in a

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Speaker 2: little bit. But I also need to add shout out

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Speaker 2: to my Yankees two and zero after the game to

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Speaker 2: win over the Guardians. Yankees Dodgers. You know Baseball would

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Speaker 2: love it, make it happen, speak it into existence. Big

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Speaker 2: Game three today for the Dodgers.

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Speaker 1: What was it? Oh? NBNBA starting to heat up? Huh?

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Speaker 2: You guys seen all these highlights popping up, Zach Edy

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Speaker 2: crushing with the Memphis Grizzlies. Really exciting stuff. But today's

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Speaker 2: podcast is centered around a great guest. His name is

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Speaker 2: Steve Fezick, and I know you guys know how I

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Speaker 2: love to talk about the contests in Vegas. The NFL

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Speaker 2: gambling contest that I've entered for I think seven years now.

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Speaker 2: Zero victories haven't cast yet. Steve Fezick has won it

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Speaker 2: multiple times now. He won it back in the day

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Speaker 2: when there weren't as many people. But the guy has

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Speaker 2: he's a contest specialist, as he calls himself. And I

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Speaker 2: think you're really gonna enjoy it. We talk week seven

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. We talked please don't do gay, same

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Speaker 2: game parlays, we talked about getting cut off by casinos.

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Speaker 2: It's fun stuff. I think you guys will like it.

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Speaker 2: So I'll be brief before we get to Steve. And

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Speaker 2: obviously DeVonta Adams moves helps the Jets immensely. You know,

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Speaker 2: he obviously cannot kick field goals, he can't help stop

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Speaker 2: the run, he can't protect Aaron Rodgers. These are things

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Speaker 2: that could be a problem. But here's the funniest part.

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Speaker 2: So Devanta Adams, remember he popped up with a hamstring

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Speaker 2: and it was like, ooh, he's not he's not, can't go,

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Speaker 2: not gonna make it, He's hurt. And now, all of

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Speaker 2: a sudden, according to multiple reporters, DeVonta Adams expects to

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Speaker 2: play and suit up for the Jets this weekend against

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Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road. And this is a

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Speaker 2: massive game. It is a huge swing game, like the

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Speaker 2: Bills game was a swing because in the division, the

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Speaker 2: Jets could have tied for the division lead. Buffalo is

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Speaker 2: now four and two and they're in total control of

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Speaker 2: that division with two out, and the Patriots stink. Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: is four and two, Jets two and four. So Jets

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Speaker 2: lose this and at two and five you're pretty much cooked.

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Speaker 2: But here's where it gets interesting. If you win all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden, you hold any tiebreakers with the Steelers.

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Speaker 2: And oh, by the way, the Steelers have their own

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Speaker 2: drama with justin fields versus Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson's now

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Speaker 2: healthy and he's taking first team STAPs at practice, and

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Speaker 2: Tomlin will announce a starter. It's not often that the

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Speaker 2: backup does well enough to help you get to four

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Speaker 2: and two, and he has done pretty good. He's had

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Speaker 2: his moments of struggles, but he's not become the turnover

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Speaker 2: machine that we knew he was previously. So I mean,

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Speaker 2: we're looking at a situation here in Pittsburgh where they

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Speaker 2: change it up Tomlan loses the locker room. I don't know, guys.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a risky move by Pittsburgh, But the

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Speaker 2: Jets have to win this game. Obviously, they already don't

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Speaker 2: have a tiebreaker with the Denver Broncos, who you don't

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Speaker 2: think are going to be in the playoff mix. But

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Speaker 2: the Jets lost to him, and you know, now you're

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Speaker 2: down a game to Buffalo. So Jet's got a lot

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Speaker 2: of work to do here, and I think this is

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Speaker 2: must win against Pittsburgh. So DeVante Adams showing up is

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Speaker 2: pretty clutch. It allows Garrett Wilson to move to the slot,

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Speaker 2: get mismatches. Glora Lazard played so well, Mike Williams sounds

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Speaker 2: like he's gonna be cut or traded. Packed wide receiver

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Speaker 2: room there for the Jets. But why I like the

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Speaker 2: Bills move more of adding Amari Cooper is they were

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Speaker 2: vag I think they got boxed in by Houston after

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Speaker 2: that Baltimore loss. Houston really went with a single high

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Speaker 2: safety and said, we dare you to do anything. None

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Speaker 2: of your receivers scare us down the field. Shakira was missing.

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Speaker 2: Shakira was back last night or Monday night for the

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Speaker 2: Jets game, but he wasn't one hundred percent and their

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Speaker 2: their pass game like nobody's afraid of Curtis Samuel Kean Coleman.

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Speaker 2: He made a splash play against the Texans, but let's

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Speaker 2: be real, he doesn't have a speed to scare you.

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Speaker 2: And he's a rookie. Okay, this team is good. Dalton

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Speaker 2: Kincaid really starting to show out, but injuries could easily

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Speaker 2: cripple a team. And adding Amari Cooper. I know that

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Speaker 2: there's some metrics that say he's the worst receiver in

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Speaker 2: the league this year and the lowest graded receiver. I

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Speaker 2: think that's an ESPN metric, by the way, but the

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Speaker 2: guy has a history of being a very good football player. Listen,

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Speaker 2: you get to play with tshau Watson, all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: you're dropping passes. It's not necessarily on you. Pro Football

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Speaker 2: Focus has him as seventy seventh receiver out of one

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Speaker 2: hundred and twenty six. But you're able to move Shakir

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Speaker 2: to the slot. You don't have to rely on Curtis

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Speaker 2: Samuel anymore. Coleman's on one side, and Amari Cooper is

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Speaker 2: a legit deep threat. And then you know this kid

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Speaker 2: Ray Davis. Flash, you got Dalvin Cook's brother, James Cook,

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Speaker 2: you got Kincaid. Like, I think this is a huge

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Speaker 2: move for Buffalo. This is a big one. Cooper is

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Speaker 2: a proven commodity. Obviously DeVante Adams is, but he's getting older.

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Speaker 1: Mari Cooper, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I would say it's on the edge of his prime.

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Speaker 1: He's a guy who last year didn't he didn't he Cook?

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Speaker 1: Somebody Houston?

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Speaker 2: Or wait, who did he he did? I think it

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Speaker 2: was Houston. He's strut for like two hundred and forty

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Speaker 2: nine yards receiving. He won everybody fantasy games last year.

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Speaker 2: Late in the season, he can be utterly dominant down

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Speaker 2: the field. I the thinks that's a huge move for Buffalo.

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Speaker 2: I think the Bills are in great position to win

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Speaker 2: the division once they get healthier on defense. But the

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Speaker 2: Jets obviously getting DeVante an enormous development for them. The

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Speaker 2: problem is they've got to solve a the offensive line right.

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Speaker 1: And be the kicker. They need a new kicker this week.

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Speaker 2: And see, you got to stop the run because you

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Speaker 2: know Pittsburgh's plan at home. It's gonna be Naje Harris

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Speaker 2: to the left, Naje Harris to the right, mix in

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Speaker 2: a little h Jalen Warren and it's gonna be hammer time.

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Speaker 2: I would expect Naje Harris to have no fewer than

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Speaker 2: twenty carries. But the reason I like the Jets here,

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Speaker 2: I haven't bet it is because, undeniably, Justin Fields scares

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Speaker 2: any more than Russell Wilson. Nothing from Russell Wilson really

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Speaker 2: scares me. I guess he throws a better deep ball

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Speaker 2: than Fields, but overall, like you know, he just hasn't

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Speaker 2: been good for three straight years now, and he's coming

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Speaker 2: off a calf injury, so I don't really think he's

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Speaker 2: out running anybody. Fields will outrun you. It's a tough

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Speaker 2: one guys, Jet's got to get the dub. Anyways, without

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Speaker 2: further ado, let's get to our guest, Steve Feszick, professional

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Speaker 2: gambler in Las Vegas.

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Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

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Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio

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Speaker 1: dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to

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Speaker 1: listen live. You know a guy, Jason likes to think

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Speaker 1: he knows everything when it comes to sports. I know

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Speaker 1: what sports dance wants, but for everything he doesn't, he

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Speaker 1: knows the guy who does.

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Speaker 3: Let's just say I know a guy who knows a

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Speaker 3: guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's welcome into straight fire. A guess who's

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Speaker 2: been here before, and he's got a lot of opinions

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Speaker 2: on the sports betting industry, maybe the gambling gold rush.

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Speaker 2: Steve Fesick one of the better sports gamblers in Vegas.

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Speaker 2: He's won a slew of contest. He ignites controversy online.

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Speaker 1: Steve, how are you?

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Speaker 3: I'm excellent? Jason. I love that analogy of the gold

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Speaker 3: rush because who was making all the money during these

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Speaker 3: gold rushes? Well, the few miners have found the gold,

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Speaker 3: but really the people that were selling the pickaxes and

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Speaker 3: the supplies, right, they were the ones that were making

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Speaker 3: the most money.

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Speaker 2: That's a great, great point by you. I don't know,

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Speaker 2: we're what five years into this, would you say sports

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Speaker 2: gambling being legalized? I don't know, four or five years

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Speaker 2: something like that, and here we are the kind of

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Speaker 2: a wacky wonky NFL season where dogs were dominating and

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Speaker 2: then of course the house gets crushed this past weekend

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. I'm just curious your macro thoughts on

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Speaker 2: the industry as we head into week seven in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think you nailed it that the industry was

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Speaker 3: slowly eroding, if you will, went before the legalization throughout

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Speaker 3: all the states, and in fact, you know, back going

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Speaker 3: back to like blackjack in the nineteen seventies, Beat the

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Speaker 3: Deer get gets written, and all of a sudden it

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Speaker 3: becomes well known that blackjackets beatable, and all the card

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Speaker 3: counters start getting kicked out, the casinos don't allow them

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Speaker 3: to play. And what happened is a lot of people said, well,

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Speaker 3: why not just bet sports. It's another advantage play that

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Speaker 3: you can make money at and you don't get any heat,

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Speaker 3: you don't need any camouflage, you're not going to get

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Speaker 3: kicked out.

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Speaker 1: Well, the world has.

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Speaker 3: Changed, Jason. You fast forward to twenty twenty four, and

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Speaker 3: it is commonplace. It's hard to find places that don't

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Speaker 3: back you off and limit you if you're an advantage player,

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Speaker 3: which is frustrating because you always hear responsible gambling. You

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Speaker 3: know what responsible gambling is losing, losing every year only

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Speaker 3: ten percent of what you make instead of fifty percent.

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Speaker 3: That's what casinos considered responsible.

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Speaker 2: And so you're saying, you know, some of these hardcore

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Speaker 2: gamblers who are able to find an edge in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: they're just getting shut off. They're turning off your water,

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Speaker 2: refusing to let you get in on the action.

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Speaker 3: Yes, and you know what when I say the NFL too,

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Speaker 3: like pulling back the curtain where everybody is making money,

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Speaker 3: is really off the prop betting. So that's where the

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Speaker 3: numbers are so difficult to set. And you have situations

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Speaker 3: where whenever there's a running back one and two a tandem,

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Speaker 3: and you're not sure what the carriers are going to be,

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Speaker 3: and then the coach comes out and says, hey, you know,

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Speaker 3: I'm going to make a change, like Chicago was going

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Speaker 3: to do that with swift, and then Swift started, you know,

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Speaker 3: carrying the rock better, and he became back the running

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Speaker 3: back one. But whenever you have a shift in a

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Speaker 3: situation like that, it's so hard to set those lines.

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Speaker 3: You always hear Vegas knows, you always hear the odds

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Speaker 3: makers knows more than the better. It's absolutely not true

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Speaker 3: because no one knows sometimes and then the information comes

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Speaker 3: in and then there's a window of opportunity to get

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Speaker 3: down before the lines move where the player absolutely has

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Speaker 3: the best of it.

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Speaker 2: So that's a great point on props. Let me give

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Speaker 2: you one from Monday Night Football. I had to go

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Speaker 2: through my text chain because I'm with some gamblers. So

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Speaker 2: Monday Night Football, before James Cook was announced out, one

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Speaker 2: of my guys says, hey, Ray Davis, anytime touchdown is

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Speaker 2: plus one thousand, he's in line to get a lot

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Speaker 2: of carries. So you know, we put some money down

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Speaker 2: as soon as Cook is ruled out. I'm not going

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Speaker 2: to say the sports book, but they offered a cash out, right,

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Speaker 2: a cash out of half of the product. Would let's

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Speaker 2: say you put fifty bucks on it, they're offering you

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Speaker 2: over two hundred dollars to cash out on the bet

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Speaker 2: because you were probably gonna win it. Now, my buddy

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Speaker 2: didn't take it, he probably should have. But you're right,

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Speaker 2: the props are where there's a lot of mispriced action.

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Speaker 2: But how are you able to narrow it down? And

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Speaker 2: can you get down big money on props the way

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Speaker 2: you can on sides.

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Speaker 3: No, not by yourself. So you really need to have

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Speaker 3: a network. And this goes back to and I'm pulling

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Speaker 3: back the curtain here, but if you've got a guy

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Speaker 3: and this is like in Billy Walter's book where he

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Speaker 3: talks about I don't know if you've read that, where

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Speaker 3: mister Walters talks about his relationship with Phil Mickelson and

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Speaker 3: other big betters. In an ideal world, you find some

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Speaker 3: guys that love to play big baker at and other games,

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Speaker 3: and they've been losing betting sports, and then they start

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Speaker 3: betting for you, and they're given such a wider leash

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Speaker 3: in terms of limits and what they can play because

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Speaker 3: it's like, there's no way Phil Mickelson suddenly going to

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Speaker 3: start winning on a sports betting So, just to give

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Speaker 3: an example, so where are you, like right now, a

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Speaker 3: lot of new gamblers into the market.

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Speaker 2: My brother just sent me an article about some guy

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Speaker 2: I guess at the athletic where we lost one hundred

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Speaker 2: and ten thousand dollars gambling in a year, and there's

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Speaker 2: all these cautionary tales happening. So I hate to use

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Speaker 2: the phrase dumb money, but a lot of that has

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Speaker 2: entered the market.

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Speaker 1: No, Steve, I like to.

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Speaker 3: Use I'm trying to be gentler and kinder now that

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Speaker 3: I'm in my sixties, So Jase, I like to say,

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Speaker 3: recreational my care and let's be fair. Now, I live

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Speaker 3: on a golf course in Vegas, all right. I see

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Speaker 3: golfers going by. They're paying one hundred and fifty dollars around.

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Speaker 3: I don't jump over my fence and say, what a

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Speaker 3: negative evy play? Why are you? Why are you blowing

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Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty dollars to play golf today? And

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Speaker 3: it's the same thing. Betting sports is one of the

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Speaker 3: cheapest recreation things. Ever, let's assume you've got a thousand

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Speaker 3: dollars on a game. That sounds crazy, right, Well, you're

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Speaker 3: not spending one thousand dollars, you're spending forty five dollars.

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Speaker 3: A drunk baby is going to win fifty percent of

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Speaker 3: the time, that's the house edge and a random bet.

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Speaker 3: If you avoid these long shot single game parlays where

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Speaker 3: the house edge is much higher ten, twenty, even thirty percent.

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Speaker 3: But you just make a straight bet. If you' about

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Speaker 3: one hundred dollars, it's four dollars and fifty four cents.

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Speaker 3: It's a happy meal, man. So I absolutely am fine

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Speaker 3: with recreational playing. Just don't think that most people think

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Speaker 3: that they're going to beat it. You're not going to

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Speaker 3: beat it. It's hard to win betting on sports. It's

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Speaker 3: hard even for people that are very good at it.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so let's segue into these contests the Circa the

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Speaker 2: Westgate you've entered.

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Speaker 1: You won before.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure you hit sixty five seventy dos, maybe seventy

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Speaker 2: five percent one season getting super hot. Now it's a

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Speaker 2: slightly different game with the frozen lines. But I don't

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Speaker 2: know if Steve A lot of people probably say, well, wait,

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Speaker 2: if Steve Vezick can win this a couple of times,

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Speaker 2: why can't I get a system down, get an algorithm,

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Speaker 2: get in with the team when we crunch numbers.

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Speaker 1: Why can't we do Why can't why not us?

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Speaker 3: Several reasons? Because you're probably not a contest specialist. And

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Speaker 3: I'll use an example. So I partnered up with Greg Jones.

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Speaker 3: He was one of the four Survivor winners. And to

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Speaker 3: be fair, I did not win Survivor. I got eliminated.

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Speaker 3: But come October, uh no November, come Thanksgiving. Greg survived Thanksgiving,

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Speaker 3: and he was looking for someone to advise him and

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Speaker 3: to invest with him, and I bought a share of him,

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Speaker 3: and I bought several shares and he went on to

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Speaker 3: be one of the four winners. So he won two

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Speaker 3: point three million. And so like one of the strategies

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Speaker 3: we devised, and this is like as contrariant as you

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Speaker 3: ever see, Jason. I told Greg his last four weeks,

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Speaker 3: not only are you going to decide what you're gonna play,

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Speaker 3: but you're going to tweet out what you're playing. Hey,

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Speaker 3: I'm on the Rams this week. I'm on the Bengals

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Speaker 3: this week. Now think about this, the brilliance of this,

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Speaker 3: and any normal contest, you would you want to hold

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Speaker 3: your cards close to the vest. You don't want your

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Speaker 3: opponents knowing what you're doing. But let's assume you're one

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Speaker 3: of the eight other guys that are alive, and dude

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Speaker 3: comes out and says I'm on the Bengals. Well you're like, well,

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Speaker 3: which was like the third biggest favorite that week. It's

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Speaker 3: almost like saying you'd have to be a complete Dumbo

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Speaker 3: to play the Bengals. Also, why would you match a

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Speaker 3: play someone else has already you know, gotten in on

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Speaker 3: anyone that's logical. It is gonna say, okay, well, if

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Speaker 3: he's on the Bengals, I got to take something else.

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Speaker 3: They got to go a different path, because you want

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Speaker 3: a unique path to try to win at all. So

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Speaker 3: we kind of I don't I'm not saying we're the

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Speaker 3: first ones to do that, but I think we're the

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Speaker 3: first ones to like actively disclose what we actually were playing,

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Speaker 3: which is completely contrarian to what we would do in

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Speaker 3: a normal contest.

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Speaker 2: And you think it might have got in the heads

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Speaker 2: of some folks.

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Speaker 3: I think that they had to react. It's it's just

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Speaker 3: human nature that it would be like the lottery. If

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Speaker 3: I if I tweeted out the six lottery numbers that

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Speaker 3: I was going to play, all right, and you are

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Speaker 3: following me, you'd and it was winner take All. You'd

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Speaker 3: have to be crazy to play the same lottery numbers, right,

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Speaker 3: Because now by definition, you're not gonna you can't win

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Speaker 3: the jackpot by following me. You have to do you

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Speaker 3: have to play something else.

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Speaker 2: Hm. So does that same logical apply to the circa

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Speaker 2: with five picks every week?

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Speaker 3: No, it would be the opposite. So the worst thing

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Speaker 3: I could do this is the beauty of it. Let's

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Speaker 3: say I'm the chip leader and you're a half game

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Speaker 3: behind me, and I give out my five plays, right, Well,

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Speaker 3: what you could do is you could say, I'll just

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Speaker 3: copy him on four and I'll go Opoh, I'll go

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Speaker 3: opposite on the fifth. And now, even though I'm a

338
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Speaker 3: half game behind, it's essentially a fifty to fifty contest

339
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Speaker 3: because that game it'll be winner take all. Just to

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Speaker 3: use an extreme example, huh interesting.

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Speaker 2: How, by the way, do you want to disclose how

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Speaker 2: you have done so far in the circa?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm lousy. It's been a terrible year. I've got

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Speaker 3: multiple entries. I think the best one is like right

345
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Speaker 3: slightly above five hundred. Let me give an example why

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Speaker 3: I'm doing so badly. Because last week on the contest

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Speaker 3: these are printed on Wednesday, Jacksonville was plus two, Tennessee

348
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Speaker 3: Titans were plus one, so and what the funny thing is,

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Speaker 3: I'm the guy that's like breaching right befre the game started,

350
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Speaker 3: I said, you have to be an idiot to bet

351
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Speaker 3: Jacksonville minus one and a half. You should have played

352
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Speaker 3: them when they're plus two. You have to be a

353
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Speaker 3: dummy to play Tennessee minus two and a half when

354
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Speaker 3: you could have had them plus one. But I'm certainly

355
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Speaker 3: going to play in plus one and plus two. And

356
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Speaker 3: I know what people are saying to these like Steve,

357
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Speaker 3: ones and twos don't land very often. It's very unusual.

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Speaker 3: Why are you making such a big deal? And the

359
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Speaker 3: best way I can the best evidence I can give

360
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Speaker 3: of how valuable those movements are. Yes, they don't land

361
00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:25,119
Speaker 3: very often. But think about it as a money line.

362
00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:27,800
Speaker 3: You could bet the Titans plus a dollar five on

363
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Speaker 3: the money line and then they close like minus a

364
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Speaker 3: dollar thirty five. Would you ever bet a baseball Imagine

365
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:36,359
Speaker 3: you have two equally match teams. The Reds are playing

366
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Speaker 3: the Cubs, and you could bet the Cubs minus plus

367
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Speaker 3: one o five and then right before the game starts,

368
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Speaker 3: the Cubs are minus one thirty five without any real

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Speaker 3: significant changes in the lineups. Yeah, you would never not

370
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Speaker 3: in the zillion years, you'd be like that, No, I

371
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Speaker 3: should I should have played them earlier. I'll just pass now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, no, the Texan the Titans screwed me big time.

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Speaker 2: I had no I mean midweek. I don't know if

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Speaker 2: you saw this last week, but Michael Pittman was supposed

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Speaker 2: to be had to the ir right.

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Speaker 1: They're like, oh, it's a.

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Speaker 2: Bad injury probably, and oh, by the way, Anthony Richardson's

378
00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,160
Speaker 2: coming back, and no Jonathan Taylor. I felt good being

379
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Speaker 2: on the Titans against the Colts, and then Michael Pittan

380
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:11,919
Speaker 2: plays and catches the game winning touchdown, and I'm like,

381
00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,600
Speaker 2: the guy wasn't even supposed to suit up. So I'm

382
00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,639
Speaker 2: actually doing all right. I think I'm like top seven fifty,

383
00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,640
Speaker 2: but it's so difficult unless you're getting five and oh's

384
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,240
Speaker 2: and four and ones, like, it's tough to make up ground.

385
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Speaker 2: I do, however, kind of like this week, I am curious,

386
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Speaker 2: how often do you play the Thursday game, Steve, like

387
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:30,240
Speaker 2: ever in the contest or never?

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00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,680
Speaker 3: Almost never, And the reason being is that I want

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Speaker 3: to have that perfect information. I want to be able

390
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,960
Speaker 3: to and pulling back the curtain. In poker terms, they

391
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Speaker 3: call it. They talk about dead money, all right, and

392
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:44,200
Speaker 3: there is no dead money in sports betting because there's

393
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Speaker 3: so much luck involved. But it's really difficult if you're

394
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,000
Speaker 3: giving out your plays on Thursday to win, because you're

395
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Speaker 3: playing with Thursday information on stale lines and everyone else

396
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,600
Speaker 3: can submit at three o'clock, one hour before the deadline.

397
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Speaker 3: And I can tell you guys like Las Vegas, Chris

398
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:01,920
Speaker 3: and myself, we've had great luck and even the circum millions.

399
00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,399
Speaker 3: Like last year, I finished twenty first, So for all

400
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,040
Speaker 3: those who are there's five thousand people and I was

401
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,200
Speaker 3: in the top five for most of the year. And

402
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Speaker 3: what's funny, Jason, people roundly criticized me, like Feesik, blew it.

403
00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:15,639
Speaker 1: You know, he did terrible.

404
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,679
Speaker 3: I'm like, yeah, I picked, I finished thirteen and twelve

405
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 3: and finished twenty first. I blew it, Okay, you know, yes,

406
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 3: I wanted to win it. But it's the thing about

407
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,320
Speaker 3: the World Series of Poker. It would be this. It'd

408
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,680
Speaker 3: be like saying I finished twenty first in the World

409
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,640
Speaker 3: Series of Poker in the main events. Not I mean, yeah,

410
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,520
Speaker 3: maybe you could say I misplayed my queen's but I

411
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:35,639
Speaker 3: probably did pretty well.

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Speaker 1: You did a maz Yeah.

413
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Speaker 2: I mean that's you're you're making a significant profit finishing

414
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 2: twenty first, finishing hell top one hundred, right, yeah, doesn't

415
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:43,440
Speaker 2: that top hundred get paid?

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Speaker 1: Oh?

417
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,199
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, I think it's much more than that.

418
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Speaker 1: Now.

419
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,520
Speaker 3: Now, the hard part though, is that you hit sixty percent,

420
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Speaker 3: and normally you hit sixty percent your styling, sixty percent

421
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:55,920
Speaker 3: will get you nothing in these contests. You won't even cash,

422
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:59,640
Speaker 3: so you really have to aim higher. But I can

423
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Speaker 3: tell you, so, how good is sixty percent? I love

424
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 3: using this example people all the time to say I

425
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Speaker 3: hit sixty five seventy percent just playing my best bet daily.

426
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Speaker 3: If you only if you start with one thousand dollars. Okay,

427
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 3: So you go ahead and borrow a thousand dollars from

428
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 3: your uncle, and instead of going to Noble that night,

429
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:17,920
Speaker 3: you go ahead and you're going to invest in sports.

430
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,520
Speaker 3: And every every day you bet ten percent of your

431
00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:24,639
Speaker 3: bankroll on your best bet. Okay, normally insane ten percent

432
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,439
Speaker 3: of a bankroll, and you hit sixty percent each and

433
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,280
Speaker 3: every day, and you keep rolling it over. Okay, So

434
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:32,920
Speaker 3: that thousand grows to two thousand, and now you bet

435
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,960
Speaker 3: your wrisk two hundred ten percent on each and every

436
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,160
Speaker 3: day on one play and you keep rolling it over

437
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,160
Speaker 3: for five years. After five years, you will have, wait

438
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 3: for it, one billion dollars. Now I get it. Once

439
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,359
Speaker 3: it got to like ten million, it'd be really hard

440
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 3: to bet a million dollars in one play. But so

441
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 3: my point is not that why aren't people why don't

442
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,640
Speaker 3: they have a billion? But it would become fairly easy

443
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 3: to become a multi millionaire. And so when people say

444
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 3: they hit sixty percent, but they're living in their mom's attic, they're.

445
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 1: Probably probably full of shit.

446
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:10,359
Speaker 3: They're probably not hitting sixty percent, or they're the worst

447
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 3: better in the history of the planet, one or the other.

448
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 2: Do you ever get from friends these texts about like

449
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 2: random guy on TikTok who's got his lock of the

450
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 2: century and because last week he went seven to one

451
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,159
Speaker 2: and now all of a sudden, people are like betting it.

452
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 2: Do you ever get those texts? Because I get them

453
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,440
Speaker 2: from friends that I'm just so dismayed. I'm like, it's

454
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:31,359
Speaker 2: just disappointing when people send that stuff, and I get it.

455
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:32,360
Speaker 1: Hey, some people run.

456
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 2: Hot get lucky for a week or two or three,

457
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 2: but a lot of other people like also like these

458
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,119
Speaker 2: guys are making stuff up random dudes.

459
00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty I get it, and I mean my friends

460
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 3: are pretty in the know. But in general, good rule

461
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,239
Speaker 3: of thumb is the more gold chain someone wears, the

462
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 3: more lambeous they drive, the bigger bets that you see

463
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,399
Speaker 3: being accepted at sportsbook, the less likely they are winners.

464
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 3: Because think about it, these sports books that they're limiting everyone. Yeah,

465
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 3: and so if they're letting this dude bet fifty thousand

466
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,479
Speaker 3: in the game, and miraculously they always seem to like

467
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:06,919
Speaker 3: tweet out the winners and not you know, or x

468
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 3: out the winners, but but but not the losers. But

469
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 3: in general, all the really successful sports players that I know,

470
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,879
Speaker 3: they tend to be much more like what it's like

471
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 3: the Godfather right there, the mob. They tend to stay

472
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 3: under the radar, and they'll drive like their their Accura

473
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 3: into into the strip and not make a big deal

474
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 3: of it, because why would they put a big target

475
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 3: on their back. Also if they really were a high roller.

476
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 3: And it's a lot of work. It's not just a

477
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 3: bunch of partying and women and cigars and back rooms

478
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 3: and Italian restaurants at the American Italian Club. I mean,

479
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 3: it's just it's a lot of late nights grinding away,

480
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 3: finding off numbers.

481
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

482
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio

483
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 1: dot com and within the iHeart Radio app. Search FSR

484
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 1: to listen live.

485
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 2: Let's go look at a couple games Week seven, Texans, Packers,

486
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 2: Green Bay at home. Packers starting to feel like a

487
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 2: team that you can get behind, not just because of Arizona,

488
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 2: but their health. Other than Wix getting injured, the defense

489
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 2: is getting healthier. I already bet the Packers two and

490
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 2: a half against the Texans. I'm curious any read on

491
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 2: that game?

492
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 3: Beautiful. This is the classic example of how people make

493
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 3: money betting sports. And there is still mis two and

494
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 3: a half lay a dollar ten at a little treasure

495
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 3: island here in Las Vegas, MDM has a Mis two

496
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 3: and a half laya dollar twenty. Let me explain why

497
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 3: mis two and a half is a great bet. Minus

498
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,119
Speaker 3: three is a terrible bet. All right, now, that sounds

499
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,640
Speaker 3: ridiculous because they're so close together. The Packers will win

500
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 3: favored by three, They will win by three ten percent

501
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 3: of the time. Okay, so if they play this game

502
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 3: one hundred times and three is the correct number, then

503
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 3: the packers will cover forty five, they'll not cover forty five,

504
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 3: and it will land fiddle in the middle right on

505
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,640
Speaker 3: the three ten percent of the time, ten games out

506
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,360
Speaker 3: of one hundred. So by laying minus two and a half,

507
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 3: you're turning that push into a win danger math. Now

508
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 3: you're gonna hit fifty five percent instead of forty five percent.

509
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 3: So you're gonna go from a allows a losing wager

510
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 3: to you know, really exactly what a pro's looking for.

511
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,639
Speaker 3: Win fifty five percent of your bets. You have to

512
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 3: pick fifty two point four to break even. That's a

513
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 3: five percent ROI you bet ten thousand dollars in a

514
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 3: bet like that, bang. I know you're saying, well, you're

515
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,679
Speaker 3: gonna win ten thousand or lose eleven thousand. Yeah, but

516
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 3: you're really gonna win five hundred dollars. That's what you

517
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 3: make a bet like that. And a sports book takes

518
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 3: their limit bet, and that's pretty much the limit of

519
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 3: most Vegas books. There's a there's a myth that the

520
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 3: Vegas books like will take whatever you want. Ten thousand's

521
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 3: like a good sized wager, and that's what the limit

522
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 3: would be at most the major sports books in Vegas

523
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,880
Speaker 3: less at the minor ones Lions, Vikings.

524
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 2: This is a tough one because if you're just looking

525
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,120
Speaker 2: at this season's numbers, I think the Vikings are the side.

526
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,200
Speaker 2: If you're looking this season, last season, including priors, it's

527
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 2: probably the Lions. But like an injury, like Hutchinson, locker

528
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 2: room leader, top guy in Sacks really helps out the

529
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 2: secondary by getting to the quarterback, all of a sudden,

530
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 2: he's gone.

531
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 1: I don't know what their past rush looks like.

532
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 2: Do they have to change a defensive scheme blitzmore leave

533
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 2: their young quarterbacks on islands?

534
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:18,879
Speaker 1: I don't know.

535
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 2: This is kind of a mysterious spot for Detroit. Anything

536
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 2: from you on this game.

537
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 3: Gosh, you're so good at this because you're spot on right.

538
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 3: Minnesota has been the better team, right, but we can't

539
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,920
Speaker 3: just throw our priors into the trash cans. And before

540
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 3: the year started, Detroit was supposed to win ten and

541
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,160
Speaker 3: a half games, the Viking seven games. And now you're

542
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 3: to date, you know, I'm old school looking at like

543
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 3: yards per play, these two teams have actually been like equal,

544
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 3: But that's because Detroit just annihilated the Cowboys. But so

545
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 3: why the heck. So when I see the Vikings laying

546
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,479
Speaker 3: two and a half home field's worth at most two

547
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 3: and a half, I could only look to Detroit because

548
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 3: I still do have Detroit power rated higher because of

549
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 3: the priors, so I would say the values in Detroit.

550
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 3: I did play the over. You know, scoring was really

551
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 3: down the first four weeks. Yes, the last two weeks,

552
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 3: I think we're seeing the offenses return to credibility and

553
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 3: I just don't think they got enough reps in preseason.

554
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 3: And this kickoff rules, everyone's just kicking out of the

555
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 3: end zone. So when you start on the thirty instead

556
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 3: of the twenty five, think about this. If you can

557
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 3: pick up thirty yards, you're in solid field goal range.

558
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 3: You need two first downs essentially to get three points,

559
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 3: and I really think that that's creating more scoring. So

560
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 3: I did play the over forty nine and a half.

561
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 3: And this is an example. I gave it out to

562
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 3: my clients. At forty nine a half. I would invest

563
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 3: up to like fifty and a half, but fifty one

564
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 3: such a key number. If it moves any further, the

565
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 3: value will be gone.

566
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 2: So as I also looked at last year's games and

567
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 2: it was like Kevin O'Connell had Josh Dobbs and Nick

568
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,199
Speaker 2: Mullens I think were his quarterback. Maybe it was Nick

569
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 2: Mullens for both. And the Vikings were very I mean

570
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 2: they were able to score at will against the Lions

571
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 2: last year. So now upgraded with Darnold off a buy

572
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 2: whatever that's worth. Justin Jefferson healthy, Jordan Addison, like the

573
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 2: Vikings are going to score points. Yeah, I'm with you

574
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 2: on that. Over let me go to Eagles Giants. This

575
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 2: is a tough one because if you go by the

576
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 2: national narrative, the media, the Eagles, the sky's falling. Sirianni's

577
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,119
Speaker 2: arguing the fans, this team's overrated, they couldn't cover against

578
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 2: the Browns, blah blah blah. I just look at the

579
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 2: historical matchups of the last two years of the Giants Eagles,

580
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 2: and the Eagles have dominated them when everybody's playing. I

581
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 2: just don't I'm surprised the Eagles are only minus three here.

582
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 2: I don't see them as as in dire straits as

583
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 2: the national media.

584
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 1: Where are you on the Eagles? Giants?

585
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 3: So I did a podcast once with Colin for a

586
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 3: Super Bowl and I loved it. When you come out

587
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:45,239
Speaker 3: with something, and I could say agreements. I absolutely here.

588
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 3: But when you're looking to buy a house, you're looking

589
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 3: for comps. Right, let's look for comps. So I know

590
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 3: neighbors is back for the Giants, almost for sure. But

591
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 3: the Giants were just hosting the Bengals, and the Bengals

592
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 3: were laying four points. The Eagles are now at the

593
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 3: Giants and the Eagles are laying three. The Eagles are

594
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 3: better than the Bengals. I mean, they're significantly better. Anyone

595
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 3: who watched the Cleveland game with the right I went

596
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,360
Speaker 3: ahead and saw, well, wait a minute, the scoreboard said

597
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,239
Speaker 3: the Eagles were lousy and they won by four, But

598
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 3: you have to add what ten ten points for this

599
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 3: to turn around on the blockfield go at the end

600
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 3: of the first half. So and the game ends with

601
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 3: the Eagles in the red zone, you know, threatening to

602
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 3: score again. So the Eagles really won that game by fourteen,

603
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,200
Speaker 3: And if they had won by fourteen, then they cover.

604
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 3: Everything's fine. Yeah, the offense underperformed, granted, but the defense

605
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 3: was good and Lane Johnson was injured. Both wide receivers

606
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 3: were injured. Eight doesn't look like anything's wrong with aj Brown.

607
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 3: He looks like he's styling off the by. I could

608
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 3: only lay the three with the Eagles here.

609
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 2: I am curious a couple teams coming off a bye.

610
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 2: Teams off a bye last week were two to one

611
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 2: and one against the spread. Of course, the lousy Titans

612
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 2: did not. They failed, so did the Eagles. The other

613
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 2: two were blowouts Rams coming off a bye. Steve Hold,

614
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 2: how the hell are they minus seven already? This was

615
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 2: I felt like this was Monus four and a half

616
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 2: Sunday night or minus five.

617
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there. You know, it's interesting because I

618
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 3: think the market's making a bad correction here where they're saying, oh,

619
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 3: the Raiders are punting on the year because they traded Davante. However,

620
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 3: we knew they were going to trade Davante. That was

621
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 3: a given. So that's that that should be a no news. Also,

622
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 3: there's going to be as many Raiders fans you tell me, Yeah,

623
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 3: we Raiders fans are Rams fans are fifty to fifty.

624
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 2: Fifty five forty five Raiders probably, and the.

625
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 3: Raiders fans will be louder because that's what Raiders fans

626
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 3: do is yell. So at seven, I imagine Cooper Cups

627
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 3: coming back. But even so you know, hold your nose

628
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 3: and remember one thing. Last week, we saw the home

629
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 3: underdogs go zero to nine. That's right, spread. That's not

630
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 3: a once in a year event. That's not a once

631
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 3: in a generation event. That's a once in a lifetime event.

632
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 3: I mean, that's a five hundred to one against shot.

633
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: So there there's going to be pressure on Sunday because

634
00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 3: what's going to happen is the public is going to

635
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 3: take the money that they finally won. They've been getting

636
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 3: killed this year, but they want last week. And who

637
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 3: are they going to think they canna suddenly pivot in

638
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 3: bet underdogs. No, no, They're going to bet on the

639
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 3: on the better teams. So there's no hurry to bet dogs,

640
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 3: even if you think there's value. Now, heck you might

641
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 3: get seven and a half.

642
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, we can wrap up with Chiefs Niners, the Game

643
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 2: of the Week rematch from the Super Bowl. I was

644
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 2: mildly surprised that the Niners were favorites here. Andy Reid

645
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 2: off a bye extra week, and so it feels like

646
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 2: an auto bet. I know the Chiefs are not great

647
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 2: by any stretch, but I would be shocked if they

648
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 2: don't come out doing some ring around the rosy crap

649
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 2: or some dialing up some some wacky looking ladder or whatever.

650
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 2: That's just what Andy Reid does. And I don't I

651
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 2: don't know what to make of this Diners team. They're

652
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 2: beat up on the back end. I'm probably staying away,

653
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 2: but I would look chiefs if anything. Here by the way,

654
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 2: pulling back the curtain on how I handicap. I've got

655
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 2: my power ratings right here, so I go ahead and

656
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 2: lay it out. I have Kansas City the second best team,

657
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 2: Detroit's number one, five and a half better than an

658
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 2: average team, and San fran the fourth best team five

659
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 2: points better. So every way, who's three, they're Baltimore's three,

660
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 2: and Minnesota is five, green Bay six.

661
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 3: But they're very clear, this is as much parody as

662
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 3: I've ever seen. You've got all the top. Normally, my

663
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 3: best team's like eight points better than an average team,

664
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 3: And here I don't have one team that will be

665
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 3: more than a six point favorite against an average team

666
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 3: in the NFL. But my power ratings make Kannasey just

667
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 3: a smidge and better throwing a little bit at home field,

668
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 3: and I get the minus one for the Niners. My

669
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 3: gut says, help me out on this one because I

670
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 3: got two handicaps. My gut says, the Niners need the

671
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 3: game like blood. They're three and three and Kansas City fat,

672
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 3: drunk and happy. You know, who knows what Kelsey was

673
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 3: up to, you know during his break, probably having much

674
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 3: more fun than any than you and I are going

675
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 3: to have this week, and it's at San France game.

676
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:02,600
Speaker 3: But then Chiefs off of can with extra preparation, Andy Reid,

677
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 3: off of buy and Andy Reid. I could make a

678
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 3: case he's been just phenomenal. Look at what happens. Whenever

679
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 3: any other coach loses their skill position players or their quarterback,

680
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 3: they're done. Though. You look Miami, they can't win any games,

681
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 3: you know without a quarterback that wasn't even that good.

682
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 3: And here the Chiefs. They lose Pataco, they lose Hollywood Brown,

683
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 3: they have all these injuries, no problem, they just pick

684
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 3: up ju do you off the scrap heap gets this

685
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 3: Kareem Hunt guy. He's gonna play in Canada or somewhere,

686
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 3: you know, and now there's stars again. However, the one

687
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 3: role for the Chiefs off extra time that they've been

688
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 3: pouring in recent years has been when they've been styling,

689
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 3: and they go into the buy with a really good

690
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 3: record and they haven't performed that well. So gotten to

691
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 3: my head, san Fran wins the game by one to seven.

692
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 3: You can lay one on sand Fran, but you can

693
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 3: certainly tease those Chiefs. Have to tease from plus one

694
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:57,720
Speaker 3: and a half. Got to get one a half up

695
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 3: to seven a half. Can't never tease to seven. If

696
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 3: you want to learn more about teasers, my friend Stanford Wong,

697
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 3: who I kind of work with them back in the nineties,

698
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 3: wrote a book Sharp Sports Betting, and he explains what

699
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 3: they call Wong advantage teasers. And so you can do

700
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 3: your homework getting that book by Stanford Wong.

701
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh, I forgot.

702
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 2: I'm a Jets fan, so I forgot to ask the

703
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson may be starting this week for Pittsburgh. It

704
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 2: sounds like he's splitting first team reps and Tom and

705
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 2: will decide, is there a way to get out in

706
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 2: front of this if you like one side or the other?

707
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, I yes, But I got in front

708
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 3: out in front of it the wrong way. So I

709
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 3: looked at this line and I said, this is I

710
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 3: made a huge bet on the Steeers. I teased the

711
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 3: Steelers from one and half up to seven and a half,

712
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 3: and I took the Steers pust one a half and

713
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 3: I said, this is this is just wrong on all levels.

714
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 3: I had the Steers every bit as good as the Jets,

715
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 3: and the spot's terrible for the Jets. They're playing in England.

716
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 3: Week five, fire, the coach get the emotional bounced. Week six,

717
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 3: money and I football play really well and hard for

718
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 3: the division lead. And now on a short week, they

719
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 3: got to travel to Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh had a laugh

720
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 3: for out in Vegas. Hopefully they flew back right after

721
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 3: the game and don't have the Vegas Blue. But the

722
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 3: so the spot screams for Pittsburgh, and then everything goes wrong.

723
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 3: Davante gets gets traded, that certainly is going to help

724
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 3: the Jets, and then I do not like the quarterback

725
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 3: change for the Steelers. Still, I'm going with my power

726
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 3: ratings and the spot's still better. I think the Steelers

727
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 3: plus one and a half is good. The Teasers are

728
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 3: good low total. This is a game, it's going to

729
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 3: be twenty to seventeen, and I think Pittsburgh finds a

730
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 3: way to win.

731
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, interesting because as a Jets guy, I'm rooting for

732
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,879
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson to start because, like you said, like justin

733
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:41,240
Speaker 2: Field's playb Blake's down, He's just gonna run for fifteen yards.

734
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 2: You know, I don't see Russ doing that. But Steve Fsick,

735
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 2: great stuff you got, like a newsletter or anything you

736
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:48,840
Speaker 2: want to promote. I mean, everybody knows who you are already.

737
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 3: But I'll just go over to at phesick sports on

738
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 3: Twitter slash x and put up with me when I

739
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 3: do my food reviews and the like and some local

740
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 3: favorites in Vegas. And you know, I'm not just a

741
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 3: sports better. I'm all around advantage players. So I have

742
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 3: pro poker players, pro blackjack players I interact with. So

743
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 3: I'm very proud of that the multifaceted in all those areas.

744
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 2: Congrats on all your success man, and good luck this week.

745
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:16,320
Speaker 3: Thank you for having me on. It's an honored