WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: September 2, 2022 - Hour 2 (Radio) 0:00:02.360 --> 0:00:05.560 Live from the Bloomberg Interacted Brooker Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:05.640 --> 0:00:09.280 Daybreak for Friday, September two two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:09.480 --> 0:00:13.240 global bond slump into a bear market investors brace for 0:00:13.280 --> 0:00:16.840 the August Johns Report. President Biden takes a McDonald Trump 0:00:16.880 --> 0:00:19.760 and his supporters in a primetime speech, and we'll tell 0:00:19.760 --> 0:00:23.040 you which shipmaker is bucking the trend with a strong forecast. 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:26.480 A former New York police officer receives the longest sentence 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:29.760 yet in the January sixth Capital Riot Plus. The CDC 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:33.080 signs off on new COVID booster Shops. I'm Michael bar 0:00:33.320 --> 0:00:36.240 what we're ahead. I'm John Stashoward Sports, the Mets, me 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:38.360 at the Dodgers, the Yankee for Get a Big Series 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:41.120 tonight at Tampa Bay, and Serena Williams Place tonight at 0:00:41.159 --> 0:00:46.720 the US Open. That's all's training. Head on Bloomberg day 0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:51.600 Break on Bloomberg eleven, Free on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:55.880 d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:59.640 San Francisco, Syrius x M one nine Team and around 0:00:59.640 --> 0:01:03.080 the world Old on Bloomberg Radio dot Com. The Bloomberg 0:01:03.120 --> 0:01:10.160 business shop. Good Friday morning. I'm Any Morris and I'm 0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:13.479 Karen Moscow and US dot indext Futures are little change 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:15.960 this morning. We are coming after six one on Wall Street, 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:18.120 and we check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:21.920 trading day on Bloomberg and again, futures little change. The 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:24.200 decks in Germany's up one and a half percent, a 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:27.160 ten year treasury down two thirty seconds, the yield at 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:29.480 three point to six percent, and they yield on the 0:01:29.520 --> 0:01:32.320 two year three point five zero percent. Now I'm ex 0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:34.800 screwed oil up two point two percent, up a dollar 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:39.199 ninety four and eighty eight dollars fifty five cents a barrel, Amy, Karen. 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:42.080 We begin some with some stability in the equity markets 0:01:42.080 --> 0:01:44.559 this morning. We close out the trading week. The SMP 0:01:44.720 --> 0:01:48.520 five hundred and Dow Jones Industrial Average both snapped four 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:52.440 day losing streaks yesterday. Still, we are in a traditionally 0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:56.360 tough period for stocks. The SNP has average declines of 0:01:56.480 --> 0:01:59.720 six and seven tenths of percent for August and September 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:03.120 over the past twenty five years. Liz Young is head 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:07.280 of investment Strategy. It's so far going into the end 0:02:07.400 --> 0:02:11.600 of August, and now we've started September. Next week, everybody 0:02:11.760 --> 0:02:14.280 sort of comes back into the fold, and that's when 0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:17.040 I would expect volatility to pick back up again. We're 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:19.040 certainly not out of the woods. I don't think that 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:21.520 we're going to get out of a trading range for 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:24.359 a while and until we at least hear that installation 0:02:24.480 --> 0:02:28.280 has cooled so far, Liz Young puts the odds at 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:32.880 recession next year. Meantime, any global bonds have slumped into 0:02:32.919 --> 0:02:36.399 their first bear market in a generation. The Bloomberg Global 0:02:36.480 --> 0:02:40.320 Aggregate Total Return Index of government and investment grade corporate 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:43.840 bonds has fallen more than twenty percent from its peak 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:46.040 last year. My officials from the US to Europe have 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:49.240 hammered home the importance of higher interest rates, building on 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:52.239 the hawkish message from Fed Chier J. Powell at the 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:56.240 Jackson Hole Symposium last week. The direction of today's bond 0:02:56.280 --> 0:02:59.000 and equity markets may be determined in about two and 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:01.560 a half hour. That is, when we get the US 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:05.080 jobs report for August. Economists forecast a gain of two 0:03:06.000 --> 0:03:09.680 thousand jobs. We get a preview now from Bloomberg's Michael McKean. 0:03:09.960 --> 0:03:12.200 The jobs data are something of a one way bet 0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:15.120 for Wall Street. If the number is surprisingly high, as 0:03:15.160 --> 0:03:17.679 it was last month, it probably locks in a FED 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:20.400 rate hike of seventy five basis points at the next meeting. 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:24.360 A weaker than expected report won't necessarily guarantee only a 0:03:24.400 --> 0:03:27.840 fifty basis point move. A big increase in consumer prices. 0:03:27.960 --> 0:03:31.519 Data yet to come could change views. After financial conditions 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:34.720 loosened in August, payrolls may give a little more clarity 0:03:34.760 --> 0:03:37.840 on how much impact the FEDS tightening has already had 0:03:38.080 --> 0:03:41.600 watched the changes in the unemployment and participation rates and 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:44.160 in the number of people who lost their jobs during 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:48.000 the month. Michael McKee Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Thank you, Mike, 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:51.280 and please stick with Bloomberg Radio and Television all morning 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:54.680 for full coverage of the August jobs report. Then joined 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:57.680 us at five Wall Street Time. We'll speak live with 0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:02.240 Labor Secretary Marty Walsh. Well investors, look for US slowdown 0:04:02.240 --> 0:04:05.200 in jobs. Any inflation is still friend and center for 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:08.680 the Fed. Atlanta FED President Raphael Bostake says the US 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:12.400 Central Banks campaign to cool inflation is still not complete. 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:14.760 He told students at Georgia Tech. The current piece of 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:18.159 inflation was a long way from the feds two percent goal. 0:04:20.600 --> 0:04:24.119 Another major story we're following this morning, President Biden taking 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:27.320 aim at Donald Trump and so called Maga Republicans. Last 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:30.880 night and a prime time address, the President urged Americans 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:34.760 to reject any Trump backed candidate in the November midterm elections. 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:37.880 Too much of what's happening in our country today is 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:44.520 not normal. Donald Trump and the magor Republicans represented extremism 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:49.160 that threatens the very foundations of our republic. As President 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:52.920 Biden takes aim at Donald Trump's ideology, House Minority Leader 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:57.080 Kevin McCarthy is calling on Biden to apologize for invoking 0:04:57.160 --> 0:05:01.080 fascism when describing the former president and the past two years, 0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:06.680 Joe Biden has launched an assault on the soul of America. 0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:11.200 McCarthy made his remarks before President Biden's speech, so once 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:15.320 the potential impact from President Biden's primetime speech amy while politics. 0:05:15.560 --> 0:05:18.800 Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis says the President is trying 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:22.200 to create a wedge between mainstream Republicans and those who 0:05:22.279 --> 0:05:27.400 embrace the make America Great Again ideology. This kind of, 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:30.680 you know, sort of setting up the wedge, you know, independence. 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:33.280 Don't be drawn into that Republican party. These are run 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:35.840 by MAGA and what he's trying to do is compably 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:38.480 go that pent he got in the general election two 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:42.400 years ago, and he needs that to show up on 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:46.640 the midterms and Bloombery Politics contributor Rick Davis said President 0:05:46.680 --> 0:05:50.640 Biden traditionally tends to avoid wedge politics, as seen by 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:54.520 his bipartisan legislative accomplishments over the past few months. So 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:57.760 let's turn now from politics to corporate America, where we 0:05:57.800 --> 0:06:00.880 have a couple of changes in the c suite. Starbucks 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:05.240 has named wreck At Ben Keyser chief executive Laxman Narrasman 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:08.599 to be its next CEO. Narrasman is a veteran of 0:06:08.600 --> 0:06:12.680 the consumer industry and joins Starbucks next month. Longtime leader 0:06:12.680 --> 0:06:15.480 Howard Schultz will stay in charge and Narirasment will fully 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:19.560 take over next to April. Meantime, Amy Shell has shortlisted 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:23.960 candidates to succeed CEO Ben Van Burden. He's preparing to 0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:26.760 step down in twenty three after almost a decade at 0:06:26.760 --> 0:06:31.000 the oil giant. Writer says. Candidates include wild Swan, the 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:34.560 company's head of integrated Gas and Renewables, as well as 0:06:34.640 --> 0:06:39.320 Hybrid Vigavino, the head of downstream refining operations. Now, let's 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:41.680 check out some stocks on the move this morning. Shares 0:06:41.720 --> 0:06:44.720 of Broadcom are up more than two percent. The chip 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:47.799 maker gave us strong sales forecast for the current quarter. 0:06:48.120 --> 0:06:51.360 The outlook suggests Broadcom is sidestepping a broader decline in 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:54.800 chip demand, at least for now. Other suppliers, including a Video, 0:06:54.920 --> 0:06:59.080 Intel and Micron Technology have predicted a steep sales slow down, 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:01.920 and share to Lulu Lemon are up almost ten percent, 0:07:02.000 --> 0:07:05.080 the maker of athletic attire, raising its full year outlook. 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:08.840 The company seeks to double its sales by six by 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:12.720 selling more goods to men and expanding Lulu Lemon's footprint abroad. 0:07:13.320 --> 0:07:16.120 Straight ahead, we have your latest local headlines, plus a 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:23.960 check of sports, and this is Bloomberg. Thank you. Karen 0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:26.120 At six o seven on Wall Street. Let's bring in 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:28.360 Michael bar to find out what else is going on 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:31.200 in New York and around the world. Good morning, Michael, 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:34.600 Good morning Amy. Breaking news of brutal accident over night 0:07:34.600 --> 0:07:38.080 on the Palisades Parkway. Police say a passenger van crashed 0:07:38.400 --> 0:07:41.480 and killed four people and injured eight others. It is 0:07:41.520 --> 0:07:45.000 still closed between exits two and one. More details coming 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:48.480 up in our next traffic report. A stiff sentence was 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:51.520 handed down for a former New York City police officer 0:07:51.760 --> 0:07:54.960 convicted of brutally assaulting a Capitol Police officer during the 0:07:55.040 --> 0:07:59.200 January sixth attack. Thomas Webster faces ten years in prison. 0:07:59.400 --> 0:08:01.800 It is the law youngest prison sentenced to date for 0:08:02.040 --> 0:08:06.320 January sixth defendant. Lawyers for the Justice Department and former 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:09.720 President Trump faced off in a Florida courtroom over whether 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:13.480 there should be a special master assigned to review top 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:16.760 secret documents the FBI c s last month at Trump's 0:08:16.760 --> 0:08:20.720 Mara Lago estate. The judge did not issue an immediate ruling. 0:08:21.120 --> 0:08:24.280 You and inspectors have brave the cross fire of Ukraine 0:08:24.320 --> 0:08:28.120 and Russian forces to get inside Europe's largest nuclear plant. 0:08:28.440 --> 0:08:31.440 The long away to visit to the Russian occupied facility 0:08:31.480 --> 0:08:34.760 comes as one of its reactors was shut down temporarily 0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:38.559 due to the fighting. Raphael Grocy is leading the International 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:42.440 Atomic Energy Agency team inspecting the plant. I have just 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:47.000 competed a first tour of the key areas that we 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:51.839 wanted to see. In his first approach to the whole facility, 0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:55.160 the I a e A s. Raphael Grocy COVID booster 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:57.720 shots that target the most common new variants of the 0:08:57.800 --> 0:09:00.480 virus should become available in the US with in days. 0:09:00.920 --> 0:09:03.800 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention signed off on 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:08.040 the rollouts of updated vaccines. Dr David AGAs these are 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:09.839 the first time there's been a change to the COVID 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:13.440 nineteen vaccines since they were launched in December of and 0:09:13.520 --> 0:09:15.640 the hope is this booster, which includes the B A 0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:18.200 four and B A five spike protein as well as 0:09:18.200 --> 0:09:21.160 the original ul Hunt spike protein, will cause a broader 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:24.800 immune response to enable protection from the current variants in 0:09:24.800 --> 0:09:28.280 the United States as well as future variants. Dr Agis 0:09:28.320 --> 0:09:31.320 spoke to CBS. The boosters will be made by Fizer 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:35.160 and rival Molderna. A man was arrested in Argentina after 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:38.440 pointing a gun a Vice President Christina Fernandez de Kirchner 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:41.840 as she greeted supporters outside of residents in Buenos Sure's 0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:44.800 Global News twenty four hours a day on air and 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:48.000 on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty seven hundred 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:50.880 journalists and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:53.720 barn This is Bloomberg Gaming. All right, Thank you Michael 0:09:57.640 --> 0:09:59.839 at six ten on Wall Street. Time Now for the 0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:03.440 sports update. Here's John thanks to Amy. A trade of 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:06.360 Donovan Mitchell to the Knicks made perfect sense. Utah Jazz, 0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:08.880 we're looking to deal their star guard. Knicks need a 0:10:08.880 --> 0:10:11.080 big time player. Mitchell's and New Yorker. His father worked 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:13.319 many years for the Mets. Two teams did a lot 0:10:13.320 --> 0:10:15.760 of talk Amy. When the Jazz traded Mitchell. He went 0:10:15.800 --> 0:10:19.320 to Cleveland. The Calves gave up Colin Sexton Larry Marketing 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:22.400 in three first round draft picks. Surprising moved by the Giants, 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:26.320 they released linebacker Blake Martinez. He had a terrific twenty season, 0:10:26.400 --> 0:10:29.000 was expected to return from last year's torn a c 0:10:29.200 --> 0:10:31.400 L and not known who takes his spot now in 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:33.240 the Giants line up. Good news for the Mets, not 0:10:33.280 --> 0:10:36.040 only their comfort behind five to three win over the 0:10:36.160 --> 0:10:39.400 MLB leading Dodgers to win the series. The Mets next 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:41.960 sixteen games twenty one of their next twenty four all 0:10:42.000 --> 0:10:45.400 against sub five hundred teams that should help them hold 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:48.200 off Atlanta in the NL East to bracedill just three 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:51.000 games behind. They shut out Colorado three nothing for Atlanta 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:54.640 rookie Spencer Strider eight scoreless citings, allowed just two hits, 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:57.640 no walks, and he struck out sixteen. A month ago, 0:10:57.720 --> 0:11:00.360 the Yankees had a fifteen and a half game lead 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:03.439 on Tampa Bay. That lead is now six. They get 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:06.520 swept this weekend. It's down to three to Mingo Herman 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:09.160 on the mountain tonight, facing the race for the third 0:11:09.280 --> 0:11:12.480 night this week. It is Serena Williams Night at the 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:16.080 US Open. Serena Knight tonight takes on a'll just Tom 0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:19.640 Jonovitch from Croatia. She's ranked and she'll be the latest 0:11:19.640 --> 0:11:22.360 to try to have to deal with that large pro 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:25.640 Serena Kroud. Serena and Billy Venus Williams were at arthursh 0:11:25.679 --> 0:11:28.480 Stadium last night. They lost their first round doubles match 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:31.800 and then Raphael Nadal won his match in four sets. 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:35.600 John Station were Bloomberg Sports Amy, all right, thank you, John. 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:38.400 Let's check the markets now S and P futures down 0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:42.120 one and a quarter, DAL futures up five points, NASDAK 0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:46.760 futures down nineteen and a half. The tenure treasury little changed, 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:49.280 the yield at three point to five percent. The two 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:52.800 year yield now at three and a half percent, much 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:56.120 more still to come. On this Friday morning on Bloomberg Daybreak, 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:59.400 Stay with us. You are listening to Bloomberg Radio. This 0:11:59.559 --> 0:12:10.720 is bloom Bloomberg eleven three oh weather. Abundant sunshine today 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:14.199 going up to eighty degrees eighty five for Saturday. On Sunday, 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:17.280 sunshine at chantive afternoon showers going up to ninety. It'll 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:23.280 be eighty degrees with clouds on Labor Day. Markets, headlines 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:26.359 and breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 0:12:26.400 --> 0:12:29.760 dot Com, at the Bloomberg Business Outland. At Bloomberg Quick Tape. 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:39.280 This is a Bloomberg Business blash and I'm Karen Moscow 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:42.440 stocks mixed and global bonds slumping into their first bear 0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:45.280 market in a generation, ahead of key US jobs dated 0:12:45.320 --> 0:12:48.200 at cold stir expectations of another sharp Feder Reserve interest 0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:50.840 rate hike. We checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:53.960 the trading day on Bloomberg and futures this morning they're 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:57.120 a little change. NASDAG future is lower down about nineteen. 0:12:57.200 --> 0:13:00.400 The decks in Germany's at one point four per cent ten, 0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:02.959 Your treasury down one thirty second Hell three point to 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:05.240 five percent. The yield on the two year three point 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:08.080 four nine percent. Nine nights Screwed oil is jumping up 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:10.040 two point four percent of two dollars six cents at 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:12.800 eighty eight dollars sixty five cents a barrel. Comic school 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:15.280 a half percent or eight dollars forty cents at seventeen 0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:18.680 seventeen eighty announced. The euro is at one point zero 0:13:18.800 --> 0:13:21.200 zero one zero against the dollar in British found one 0:13:21.200 --> 0:13:23.840 point one five seven six and again one forty point 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:26.439 three too. Looking at Big Coin, it's up four ten 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:29.600 percent at twenty thousand, one hundred fifty dollars. That's a 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:32.280 Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barr with more on 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:34.800 what's going on around the world. Michael Karen, thank you 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:37.800 very much. President Joe Biden stepped up attacks on former 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:42.720 President Trump and GOP lawmakers during his prime time speech. 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:46.559 Biden ac hughes Trump and his supporters of endangering US democracy. 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:52.280 As I stand here tonight, quality and democracy are under assault. 0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:56.800 We do ourselves no favor to pretend otherwise. The US 0:13:56.880 --> 0:13:59.920 called arounds response to the latest effort to revive that's 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:04.959 only fifteen nuclear accord, not constructive, raising questions about whether 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:07.600 the two signs can reach deal that would free more 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:11.120 oil for global markets. At the US Open, Serena and 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.679 Venus Williams were eliminated after losing their doubles match. Serena 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:17.360 Williams will play tonight in the third round of singles. 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:20.520 In baseball, the Met's Red Sox and Orioles one the 0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:24.440 Nationals beat the A seven five Global News twenty four 0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:28.440 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:31.400 by more than hundred journalists n antalists more than a 0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:34.400 hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg Ammy. 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:37.760 All right, Thank you, Michael. It is six nineteen on 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:40.560 Wall Street. We are live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker 0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:43.800 studios right here on Bloomberg Daybreak. Joining us now Bloomberg 0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:47.200 in a National Economics and Policy editor Michael McKee. We're 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:49.720 talking about the jobs report that is due out in 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.760 just about two hours. Mike, thanks so much for taking 0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:54.960 the time with us this morning. Give us an idea 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.840 of how much is writing on this report. Well, it's 0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:00.400 kind of a mixed picture in a sense, because if 0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:03.200 we get a very strong report and remember in July, 0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:06.040 the forecast was for two fifty thousand. We got five 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:08.680 hundred and eighty two. If we got anything like that, 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:10.640 then the Fed is probably gonna be locked into a 0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:13.640 seventy five basis point move because they'll feel that the 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:17.040 labor market is still so tight that it will be 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:19.720 harder to bring down inflation. But if we get anything 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:23.760 like the consensus now, which is two thousand, then it 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:27.800 probably moves to the CPI report on the as the 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:30.880 deciding factor whether the Fed wants to go fifty or 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:35.560 seventy five. So that I I gotta ask that to 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:39.320 find that balance, right, to find that happy medium between them. 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:42.560 Does that mean that when we see a higher unemployment number, 0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:45.760 maybe that's not such a terrible thing, like there's a 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:48.720 glimmer of sunshine in there. Yeah, it's the old depends 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.920 on where you sit question, because if you are one 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:55.960 of those unemployed, then it's a terrible thing. But in aggregate, 0:15:56.080 --> 0:15:59.760 for the FED, they expect unemployment to rise some because, 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:02.520 first of all, they think the unemployment rate is below 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:06.840 the normal natural rate of unemployment, so the labor market 0:16:06.880 --> 0:16:11.160 is unusually tight, and also because they're trying to slow demand, 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:14.600 which would mean that companies are producing less and need 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:18.240 fewer workers. It's just a question of how high unemployment 0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:21.800 goes and how quickly, and whether that pushes us into 0:16:21.840 --> 0:16:24.400 a recession or not. When it comes to the FED, 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:27.720 which number would be more significant than the jobless rates? 0:16:27.720 --> 0:16:32.280 Are the earnings? Well, they're connected, and the lower the 0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:35.960 jobless rate goes, the more you expect wages to go 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:39.880 up because people are able to Companies have to bid 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:43.080 for workers at this point, and we've seen that still 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:46.320 happening since the end of the pandemic. The question is 0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:49.000 does it stay about where it is The last couple 0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:52.000 of months have been relatively flat, or does it start 0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:54.920 to rise again if they're trying to find more workers 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:57.960 and can't do so. If if it's started to come down, 0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:01.040 the FED is gonna feel better about wage is because 0:17:01.280 --> 0:17:04.040 they will feel like that's less of a contribution to 0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:08.600 inflation going forward. So let's talk about the labor market. 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:11.919 The FED share describing it as imbalanced. People seem to 0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:14.879 be waiting on the sidelines, not really jumping in, but 0:17:14.920 --> 0:17:18.359 the jobs are evidently out there. So when do we 0:17:18.400 --> 0:17:20.840 see things start to loosen up there? That's a really 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:24.680 good question. We don't really know. The Jolts Report, which 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:28.360 is a report of the data on how many job 0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:31.280 openings there are, came out earlier this week eleven point 0:17:31.320 --> 0:17:36.720 two million, and that was an increase. So in theory, 0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:40.679 it's not getting any looser out there. But there is 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:43.200 a suspicion that a lot of those jobs aren't real. 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:47.080 That jobs were posted at post pandemic and companies just 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:50.000 haven't taken them down, or they haven't taken down ads 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:52.840 for jobs that now they don't think they're gonna fill. 0:17:53.440 --> 0:17:57.480 So it isn't really clear how many jobs are out there, 0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:00.000 but you've got to figure there even if you cut 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:03.360 that in half, that's about as many people as are unemployed. 0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:05.840 So there's still a lot of work out there that 0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:09.200 isn't being filled, and that's why people aren't yet ready 0:18:09.240 --> 0:18:12.760 to write off the labor market. Okay, So bottom line, Mike, 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:16.480 what are you looking for in today's report? Well, you know, 0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:19.399 this is one of the harder ones to estimate because 0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:23.320 of the uncertainty about it. I wouldn't be surprised if 0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:27.400 both if either we had something close to the consensus 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:30.240 or if we got another upside surprise. None of the 0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:36.440 ancillary indicators of labor market strengthened jobs show any kind 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:39.320 of decline except for the new A d P number, 0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:42.880 But it's a new number. They completely revamped their methodology, 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:45.439 so we don't really have a track record for that. 0:18:45.920 --> 0:18:48.760 But everything else kind of told us that things are 0:18:48.760 --> 0:18:51.320 about the same as they were last month. Very briefly, 0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:54.679 thirty seconds you mentioned the September CPI report. Are you 0:18:54.720 --> 0:18:57.240 looking ahead to that? What are you looking for? Well, 0:18:57.280 --> 0:18:59.199 we are looking for a little bit of a moderation 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:01.800 because energy race has kept going down. So if that's 0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:04.159 the case, the Fed will feel a little better about it. 0:19:04.160 --> 0:19:06.479 But you gotta watch that core rate to see if 0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:09.600 underlying inflation pressures start to fall. If that's the case, 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:13.200 then the folks at C Street in Washington are gonna 0:19:13.200 --> 0:19:15.879 feel a lot better. Okay, we're gonna watch it right 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:19.680 along with you. Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Editor Michael McKee, 0:19:19.720 --> 0:19:21.439 thank you for taking the time with us on this 0:19:21.480 --> 0:19:25.400 Friday morning. We do appreciate it. As we await those numbers. 0:19:25.440 --> 0:19:27.720 We are waiting for that job's report to be released 0:19:27.720 --> 0:19:29.680 at eight thirty this morning, and of course we'll bring 0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:32.520 it all to you live right here on Bloomberg Radio 0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:36.760 checking the futures. S and P futures down three and 0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:41.359 three quarters points, DAL futures down nine, NASDAC futures down 0:19:41.400 --> 0:19:45.520 a thirty three. The ten year treasury little changed with 0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:48.160 a yield at three point to six percent. The two 0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:51.160 year yield now at three and a half percent, still ahead. 0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:53.919 On Bloomberg Daybreak, we'll take a closer look at the markets. 0:19:53.920 --> 0:19:56.960 We'll also bring you more news and business, economics and finance. 0:19:57.000 --> 0:19:59.560 Stay with us on this Friday morning. This is Bloomberg 0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:11.480 Bloomberg eleven three oh weather abundance, sunshine today to start 0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:14.359 your weekend, going up to eighty degrees eighty five tomorrow 0:20:14.520 --> 0:20:17.400 ninety on Sunday, could see some clouds on Labor Day 0:20:17.440 --> 0:20:28.960 eighty degrees. Broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio 0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:32.240 in New York, Bloomberg E living free to Washington, d C. 0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:37.119 Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one does San Francisco, 0:20:37.200 --> 0:20:40.680 Bloomberg N sixty to the country, Sirius XM Channel one 0:20:40.720 --> 0:20:44.440 nine and around the globe the Bloomberg Business and Bloomberg 0:20:44.520 --> 0:20:54.960 Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's six thirty 0:20:55.000 --> 0:20:57.840 on Wall Street. Good Friday morning. I'm Any Morris and 0:20:57.960 --> 0:21:00.960 I'm Cameron Moscow are just about three hours away from 0:21:01.000 --> 0:21:02.800 the open of US training. It's time to the five 0:21:02.840 --> 0:21:04.800 things that you need to notice? Aren't your day? Brought 0:21:04.840 --> 0:21:09.560 to you by Interactive Brokers. Investment Advisors switched to Interactive 0:21:09.560 --> 0:21:13.119 Brokers for lowest cost global trading and turnkey custody solutions, 0:21:13.119 --> 0:21:15.639 no ticket charges and no conflicts of your interests at 0:21:15.720 --> 0:21:19.439 I p k R dot com slash r i A first. 0:21:19.480 --> 0:21:22.520 We're seeing stability and equity markets to close the trading week, 0:21:22.760 --> 0:21:25.000 the S and P and Dow both snapping four day 0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:29.120 losing streaks yesterday. Still, August and September are traditionally tough 0:21:29.200 --> 0:21:32.800 months for investors. Mir A Pandit is Global market strategist 0:21:32.840 --> 0:21:35.760 with JP Morgan Asset Management. We need to be really 0:21:35.800 --> 0:21:38.280 careful about how we're looking at stocks and very much 0:21:38.280 --> 0:21:41.360 looking at the bottoms up basis, being selective about earnings, 0:21:41.400 --> 0:21:44.760 being selective about valuations. There are still areas of froth 0:21:44.840 --> 0:21:47.000 in the market that we need to to see come down, 0:21:47.000 --> 0:21:49.560 but a lot of that has taken place already, so 0:21:49.680 --> 0:21:51.760 I do think we don't want to be overly defensive 0:21:51.840 --> 0:21:55.639 or overly cautious JP Morgan's mirror Pandit says investors should 0:21:55.640 --> 0:21:59.720 be focusing on high quality companies. Meantime, global bonds have 0:22:00.080 --> 0:22:03.159 lumped into their first bear market in a generation. The 0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:06.720 Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index of government and investment 0:22:06.760 --> 0:22:11.160 grade corporate bonds has fallen more than from its peak. 0:22:11.520 --> 0:22:14.119 On the direction of today's bond and equity session, amy 0:22:14.160 --> 0:22:17.080 may be determined by the August jobs report. We get 0:22:17.080 --> 0:22:20.440 that reading at eight thirty Wall Street Time. Nila Richardson 0:22:20.600 --> 0:22:24.040 is a DPS Chief economist. I'm looking at two hundred 0:22:24.040 --> 0:22:27.800 and ninety thousand jobs. The key numbers to watch within 0:22:27.880 --> 0:22:31.840 that report is the wage gains, because that's what's important 0:22:31.880 --> 0:22:34.399 to the Fed and whether or not the tightness of 0:22:34.400 --> 0:22:38.119 the labor market is actually leading to a wage price 0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:41.479 spiral that the Fed has to take Hey. DP Stila 0:22:41.560 --> 0:22:44.760 Richardson says she still expects a strong report. Please stick 0:22:44.760 --> 0:22:47.679 with Bloomberg Radio and Television all morning for full coverage 0:22:47.680 --> 0:22:50.600 of the August Job's Report, and join us at Wall 0:22:50.600 --> 0:22:54.159 Street Time when we speak live with Labor Secretary Marty Walsh. 0:22:54.359 --> 0:22:57.240 Let's start to politics in a primetime TV address last night, 0:22:57.240 --> 0:23:00.639 President Biden urged Americans to reject candidates to buy Donald 0:23:00.680 --> 0:23:03.760