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Speaker 1: Welcome to the solid verbal home that for me. I'm

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Speaker 1: a man, I'm forty.

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Speaker 2: I've heard so many players say, well, I want to

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Speaker 2: be happy. You want to be happy for a day?

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Speaker 2: Edo steak is that woo woof?

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Speaker 1: And them and tie.

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Speaker 3: Welcome back to the solid verbol, boys and girls. My

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Speaker 3: name is ty Hilda Brandt. That guy as always the

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Speaker 3: Monster of the Midwest.

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Speaker 2: What about Monster the Midway? Monster the Midway? Yeah? Did

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Speaker 2: I screw it up? I screwed it? No, I think

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Speaker 2: it's Monster the Midway. Is the bears right, Monsters of

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Speaker 2: the Midway, the.

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Speaker 3: Monster of the Midway. Dan Rubinstein, sir, how are you?

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Speaker 2: I'm good, I'm good. Have the fun weekend of taking

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Speaker 2: care of children who were sick as I was also sick,

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Speaker 2: which is not amazing. You're still sick? No, no, no, no.

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Speaker 2: It was just like a twenty four hour See, this

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Speaker 2: was like a twenty four hour virus. This is what

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Speaker 2: happens when you live amongst children who are amongst children

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Speaker 2: that you just going to get stuff. But it was

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Speaker 2: a quickly passing thing, and it was just sort of

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Speaker 2: a Sunday thing. And I recorded an episode of Extra

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Speaker 2: Nuggets with our friend Adam Amin which stay tuned, but

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Speaker 2: that sapped the life out of me recording a thirty

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Speaker 2: five minute podcast or something. But I'm here now. I

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Speaker 2: had a good night's sleep. I am extremely excited for

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Speaker 2: this show because obviously we love Bill Connolly and we

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Speaker 2: love when he specifically deep dives things and speaks to

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Speaker 2: people that have to do with his expertise, which is

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Speaker 2: all things numbers and trends within college football. So I

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Speaker 2: feel as if there is life coursing through my veins

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Speaker 2: for the first time in a few days. Ty, So

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Speaker 2: I am here for whatever.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely I am as well. Thank you to one and

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Speaker 3: all for downloading, for listening. We hope you're subscribing as well.

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Speaker 3: If you haven't already, please do hit the subscribe or

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Speaker 3: follow button on your app of choice. This episode, all

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Speaker 3: our episodes brought to you driven by our good friends

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Speaker 3: over at Geico. If you want access to this show,

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Speaker 3: to all of our shows a little bit early. If

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Speaker 3: you want bonus video coverage of all of these episodes,

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Speaker 3: you can go on out to Verballers dot com. That

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Speaker 3: is our Patreon. It's where you can find those bonus features.

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Speaker 3: You also get access to the aforementioned extra Nuggets that

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Speaker 3: Dan referenced a little bit earlier. You can also get

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Speaker 3: access to our Patreon discord server which is always popping off.

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Speaker 3: We had some of the fast food stuff going on,

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Speaker 3: which I think we referenced, so shows just a lot

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Speaker 3: of off topic stuff and a good group of people

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Speaker 3: and fans of the Solid verbal to say the absolute,

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Speaker 3: very least the best. Of course, follow along on social

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Speaker 3: media if you haven't already, and going out to Solid

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Speaker 3: giveaway dot com if you want to get your name

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Speaker 3: in the hat to win that signed AJ Brown Ole,

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Speaker 3: Miss Minnie Helmet got about another week and a.

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Speaker 2: Half or so. How about after we talk to Bill

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Speaker 2: we will because tonight as we're recording this on Monday,

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Speaker 2: tonight is the college basketball National Championship. You and I

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Speaker 2: go through the final four of the fast food bracket

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Speaker 2: that has become a sensation on the calibrabook Patreon. How

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Speaker 2: about that.

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Speaker 3: I'm fine with this and I should also add one

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Speaker 3: final editorial point. We recorded this with Bill on Friday.

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Speaker 3: Correct a little bit out of order here. Typically we

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Speaker 3: do everything in one fell swoop, but we were able

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Speaker 3: to get Bill's time on Friday. We recorded on Friday,

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Speaker 3: and what happened on Friday was a World Cup draw.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 3: So Bill, of course being very interested in that world

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Speaker 3: yours truly being very interested in that world A little

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Speaker 3: bit of World Cup draw talk. As a PostScript, let's say, yeah,

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Speaker 3: why not to our college football discussion where we talk

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Speaker 3: about the state of analytics and much much more.

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Speaker 2: I would argue that there is a similar DNA to

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Speaker 2: the insanity that surrounds and I will say club soccer

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Speaker 2: is maybe one of the most, maybe one of the

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Speaker 2: only sports that features a more insane culture than college

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Speaker 2: football does. And I know, you know things around that

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Speaker 2: there's different sports around the world, and the rabbit nature

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Speaker 2: of cricket fandom and the rabbit nature of you know,

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Speaker 2: rugby or union or Australian So I understand all of that.

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Speaker 3: College football is different, folks, and you all know this.

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Speaker 3: This is why you're listening to a different animal a

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Speaker 3: podcast in April about going forward on fourth down. But

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Speaker 3: but there is a lot of overlap, and I am

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Speaker 3: stressing to you that and I'm going to just say

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Speaker 3: it right now. I'm going to establish this fact. Tie

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Speaker 3: is going to do a World Cup stream centered around

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Speaker 3: the United States men's national team in the lead up

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Speaker 3: to because it's an insane November, right, because the World

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Speaker 3: Cup is starting and college football is at its absolute apex.

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Speaker 3: So I'm going to force Tie to do a YouTube

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Speaker 3: live stream with the the soccer slash international football talker.

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Speaker 2: Of his choice. We'll find it, we'll find Can we

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Speaker 2: get Rebecca? Yeah, I don't know. We'll see. We'll see

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Speaker 2: who we can get.

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Speaker 3: But I'm down. I'm down, and I can hold my own.

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Speaker 3: You know I can hold my own.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, No, you're into it, so I am. I'm forcing

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Speaker 2: Tie to do that on our college football YouTube dot

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Speaker 2: com slash the solid verb.

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Speaker 3: Pushing me out of the solidverbal nest. I appreciate that,

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Speaker 3: of course. Already Dan joining us now, long time friend

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Speaker 3: of the verbal joining us on a momentous day, which

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Speaker 3: we'll get to in just a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Here. Bill Connolly from ESPN, Sir, welcome back. How are you.

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Speaker 1: It's been so long, It's been like, you know, three

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Speaker 1: months since we talked it, so I was missing. It's

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Speaker 1: been specifically to get me going back on here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's good. You did a great job. You did

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Speaker 2: a fantastic job. Bill c secretly on the road all

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Speaker 2: of the time, I don't know if you'd went on

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Speaker 2: the road at all for this piece specifically, or you

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Speaker 2: just made phone calls.

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Speaker 1: This one was a phoner, but yeah, make it up

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Speaker 1: for lost time in the travel department.

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Speaker 2: Love to hear it, okay, Ty. The name of the

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Speaker 2: piece is the State of Analytics in Football, largely college

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Speaker 2: football but some NFL. Yes, TI, did you read it?

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Speaker 2: Did you love it? Is it now a part of

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Speaker 2: your lifestyle?

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Speaker 3: State of analytics and college football? Fourth downs, two point conversions,

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Speaker 3: Lane Kiffen, And what's next? So look, Bill, we've come

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Speaker 3: to you for all topics analytics now for a good

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Speaker 3: long time, and I think you do a really good

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Speaker 3: job of putting pieces like this together to just sort

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Speaker 3: of inform the rest of us who aren't as in

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Speaker 3: the weeds with where we stand on things. I can say,

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Speaker 3: I can't ever recall a season in which Dan and

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Speaker 3: I talked more about fourth down conversions, notably with guys

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Speaker 3: like Dave Randa, who seemingly changed his approach in the offseason. Certainly,

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Speaker 3: Lane Kiffen, we've seen it a lot more at the

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Speaker 3: NFL level. You put this you all into words here

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Speaker 3: in your article for ESPN dot com, But let's talk

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Speaker 3: a little bit about fourth downs. How much meat is

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Speaker 3: still on the bone, so to speak, when it comes

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Speaker 3: to fourth downs. Are coaches going for it enough? From

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Speaker 3: an analytical perspective, where is the efficiency to be had

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Speaker 3: moving forward?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean it's funny. I remember, you know, I

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Speaker 1: started going to the Sloan Conference, this Sloan Sports Analytics

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Speaker 1: Conference in twenty twelve, and I remember, but like twenty fourteen,

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Speaker 1: I was so tired of fourth downs because that was

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Speaker 1: the only thing. And with football, it was always obviously

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Speaker 1: that was going to be kind of the first thing

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Speaker 1: that got crossed off the list. It was the easiest

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Speaker 1: from a maths standpoint, You could pretty clearly define, like

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Speaker 1: here's when they should be going forward or shouldn't. But

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Speaker 1: nothing was really happening, another one was really changing, and

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Speaker 1: so I felt like it was a conversation killer. It

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Speaker 1: was a sign that there is no progress being made

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Speaker 1: in football, so let's talk about another sport. And so

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Speaker 1: I was, I was so sick of talking about fourth downs.

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Speaker 1: But then over the last four years, coaches have actually

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Speaker 1: started to listen to the nerds a little bit and

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Speaker 1: they've made up a ton of ground. I you know,

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Speaker 1: I had this in the piece. But yeah, like in

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Speaker 1: twenty seventeen in college football, teams went for it sixty

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Speaker 1: percent of the time on fourth and one overall, and

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Speaker 1: of course that means it was like, you know, whatever,

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Speaker 1: the split was, like eighty percent on you know, in

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Speaker 1: opponent's territory and like thirty percent in your own or

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Speaker 1: whatever those numbers were. It's up to seventy four percent

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Speaker 1: now fourteen. It jumped seven percent in eighteen, and then

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Speaker 1: it just kept right on rising in these recent years.

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Speaker 1: At the pro level, they was they were only going

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Speaker 1: forward forty four percent of the time in twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 1: and that's up to seventy percent. They've almost caught college.

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Speaker 1: So in that way, I mean, it's definitely not necessarily optimized,

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Speaker 1: but it's getting a lot closer. Teams are going forward

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Speaker 1: over ninety percent of the time in opponent's territory in college,

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Speaker 1: which is obviously, which is nuts considering where things were.

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Speaker 1: There's still plenty of meat on the bones, so to speak.

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Speaker 1: Number one teams still won't really go all that much.

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Speaker 1: On the other side, there's like Mike McRoberts from Championship Analytics,

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Speaker 1: who I talked to for the piece. He said, there's

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Speaker 1: like some mythical barrier at the fifty yard line. If

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Speaker 1: it's like the opponent's forty five, they're like, all right,

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Speaker 1: we can do this. If it's do this. If it's

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Speaker 1: your forty five, they're like, ah, I don't know a

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Speaker 1: better play it safe. We're going to pump this. But

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Speaker 1: there's still plenty of recommendations that they're not listening to

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Speaker 1: in terms of going forward on fourth down in your

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Speaker 1: own territory. And while the percentages are rising, there's still

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Speaker 1: a lot of situations where the numbers very much say,

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Speaker 1: you know, fourth and three, four, five, six, you should

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Speaker 1: be going for it. And that's getting better, but it's

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Speaker 1: still not very far along. So but the yeah, the

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Speaker 1: lowest hanging fruit is fourth on one and fourth and two,

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Speaker 1: and we're actually seeing those numbers match up a lot

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Speaker 1: closer to how they should be than what we used

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Speaker 1: to seeing.

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Speaker 2: What's the barrier? What is the barrier? It's hard to

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Speaker 2: paint an entire industry of more old fashioned coach think

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Speaker 2: and paint that brush widely because every coach, every situation,

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Speaker 2: every background is different. But in the guys you've talked to,

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Speaker 2: and notably you talk to Lane Kiffen who if there

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Speaker 2: were ever somebody who would be more inclined to be

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Speaker 2: a younger person who thinks like an older person, given

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Speaker 2: his background, given his father, given like the coaches he's

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Speaker 2: coached under, what is the thing that stands in the

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Speaker 2: way of coaches giving themselves and their team's advantages.

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Speaker 1: You're you're still basically you're signed. You're potentially signing up

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Speaker 1: to lose quicker and Lane Kiffin said this when I

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Speaker 1: was talking to him. I've used this analogy too. It's

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Speaker 1: like hitting on sixteen in blackjack. You know, there are

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Speaker 1: certain specific cases where you're supposed to like where they

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Speaker 1: odd say it's the best play depending on what the

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Speaker 1: dealer is showing and all that other stuff. But when

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Speaker 1: it's time to actually say when you've got sixteen, you're like, ah,

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Speaker 1: now I'll just go ahead and I'm done, and do

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Speaker 1: you lose? And so I that's a huge part of

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Speaker 1: it when there's actual money on the line, when you're

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Speaker 1: when if you go for it and fail versus if

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Speaker 1: you punt, and you know, if you lose either way,

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Speaker 1: you'll still catch much more crap if you went for

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Speaker 1: it and failed than if you punted, and it just

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Speaker 1: feels like the safer choice because it's going to get

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Speaker 1: you yelled at less. And I think that is again,

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Speaker 1: I think that is starting to turn at least on

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Speaker 1: fourth and one specifically, But that is always going to

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Speaker 1: be the biggest part of it. Even if you know

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Speaker 1: what the odds say, you also know how people will react.

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Speaker 1: And it just feels like, you know, even if you

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Speaker 1: go ahead and lose, if you by punting, you're stalling,

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Speaker 1: You're you're you're holding off finding out if you're going

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Speaker 1: to win or lose or not a little bit longer.

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Speaker 1: And that still makes it feel like a safer play.

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Speaker 1: Is that never say it's not?

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Speaker 2: Is that a way sorry to jump in? Is that

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Speaker 2: a media thing too, though? Is that like an older

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Speaker 2: fashioned football thinker, Oh yes, typing like an older columnist

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Speaker 2: who's saying they lost because they did this right and

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Speaker 2: then they have the attention of fans. Right, It's not

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Speaker 2: just a coach thing, it's a it's an ear thing.

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Speaker 2: It's an eye thing of who has the attention.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And that was I mean the whole thing with

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Speaker 1: the Chargers and uh stay last year when they went

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Speaker 1: for it and failed three times against the Chiefs like

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Speaker 1: they'd gone for it and gotten it a lot in

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Speaker 1: other games, and it helped them write other games, and

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Speaker 1: that just became part of the win. But when they

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Speaker 1: lost to the Chiefs doing it, it became why they lost. Right,

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Speaker 1: So there is that, And you still hear it, even

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Speaker 1: not even necessarily with like the older announcers. You still

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Speaker 1: hear any announcer basically like they're guaranteed to say like, oh,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna roll the dice here, they got this. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: when when it turns from an odds perspective, punting is

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Speaker 1: the risk? Punting would be risking it, not going for it.

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Speaker 3: Bill, This may be kind of an ignorant question, but

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Speaker 3: you know, whenever we talk about fourth downs, there's the chart, right,

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Speaker 3: and certain percentage of getting the play getting the first

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Speaker 3: down depending on what the distance is to go. What

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Speaker 3: I haven't said, and I'm sure you have, is there

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Speaker 3: like kind of the inverse of that such that like, okay,

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Speaker 3: you don't get it. If you don't get it, now,

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Speaker 3: these are the expected points that are on the line

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Speaker 3: based on field position, based on essentially like what is

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Speaker 3: your risk tolerance? Is anything informed coaches on that level?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's where the I don't think they're

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Speaker 1: the only ones, but I know Championship Analytics does pretty

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Speaker 1: much exactly that. And that's what you know, the analytics

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Speaker 1: department that NFL teams have, now that's kind of their

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Speaker 1: main it's an expected points kind of a win probability

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Speaker 1: sort of thing, and and so like, for instance, if

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Speaker 1: we just stick with the fourth and one example, if

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Speaker 1: you're if you're on the opponent's one, then like it's

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Speaker 1: a very vociferous you should absolutely go for this because

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Speaker 1: if you fail, they're going to get the balls to

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Speaker 1: one and you're still the next well, I mean fumbles

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Speaker 1: and whatnot aside, but the there're still even if you fail,

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Speaker 1: you're still the more likely team to score next from

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Speaker 1: that situation. The back you go, obviously that changes because

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Speaker 1: the field position changes, and so that is absolutely part

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Speaker 1: of the even Championship is going to take where are

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Speaker 1: you on the field, how good's your punter? You know,

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Speaker 1: is this a defensive battle or is it supposed to

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Speaker 1: be a high score and affair. They're going to take

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Speaker 1: all those things into account when they spit out the

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Speaker 1: recommendation for certain situations for exactly that reason. It is

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Speaker 1: the result, the likely resulting field position of your opponent

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Speaker 1: plays a big role.

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Speaker 2: There is this also a communication thing between not just

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Speaker 2: the coach and his assistants, but also the coach and

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Speaker 2: his bosses. There's that. I think we've maybe even talked

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Speaker 2: about it with you the old like I think it

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Speaker 2: was Paul de Podesta quote about the Browns are doing

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Speaker 2: this right, this is what who we are as the Browns.

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Speaker 2: We're tanking, we're building up draft picks, and everybody's good

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Speaker 2: with the roller coaster until it gets into weird places.

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Speaker 2: Is this a matter of we'll use the Lane Kiffin example,

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Speaker 2: lane Kiffin telling his boss or boosters right his assistance,

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Speaker 2: this is who we are as a program. We are

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Speaker 2: not making it decision case by case in that like

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Speaker 2: sometimes we'll trust analytics, sometimes we won't. Is there a

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Speaker 2: matter of identity involved with this the like, this is

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Speaker 2: who we are and we're going to ride the math

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Speaker 2: for better or for worse because that gives us the

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Speaker 2: best opportunity and do some coaches and Brandon Staley did this.

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Speaker 2: Obviously he succeeded a ton and sometimes it let him down.

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Speaker 2: That's the math of it. Is there an issue with

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Speaker 2: coaches being sort of half pregnant with this.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean it certainly helps to make sure

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Speaker 1: your boss knows, probably when they're doing the hiring in

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Speaker 1: the first place, the like, I want to be aggressive

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Speaker 1: in these situations, or again, you know that's probably that

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Speaker 1: might not be the right word. I want to follow

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Speaker 1: the math in these situations. And as Kiffen pointed out,

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Speaker 1: I think I put it in the piece, you also

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Speaker 1: have to tell your defense what's what's going on. Not

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Speaker 1: all your bosses, but they need to know that you're

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Speaker 1: going for it because you're just going to go for it.

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Speaker 1: You're an aggressive you want to stay on the front

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Speaker 1: foot and all that other stuff. You're not going for

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Speaker 1: it because you don't think your defense can make stops

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Speaker 1: comes an issue too, if they think, you know, we

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Speaker 1: just he doesn't trust us. That's why they're taking these

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Speaker 1: risks right now, and blah blah blah. You got to

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Speaker 1: understand from the start, like this is who we're going

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Speaker 1: to be. That absolutely I think helps to build some

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Speaker 1: bridges in those situations. I mean, the math is still

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Speaker 1: the math, but yeah, letting people know in advance like

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Speaker 1: this is what we intend to do, not catching people

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Speaker 1: off guard by doing it that can't hurt.

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Speaker 2: Is there an age this is an insane question. Is

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Speaker 2: there an age where you suddenly would not trust a

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Speaker 2: coach to change, to evolve right because you spoke to

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Speaker 2: a younger coach. I don't know Lane Kiffin's age right now,

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Speaker 2: but he is certainly still even though he's been in

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Speaker 2: the game for a long time. Younger. Dave Randa is younger,

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Speaker 2: Brandon Staley is younger. Jimbo Fisher is not younger. Nick

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Speaker 2: Saban might be one of those exceptions that he has

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Speaker 2: been on the forefront of evolving the way he runs

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Speaker 2: his program and the way he recruits in the way

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Speaker 2: his system, especially on offense evolve. Is there an age

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Speaker 2: where you're just like, it's too late for Kirk Farens

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Speaker 2: to change, It's too late for David Shaw to change.

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Speaker 1: Oh, David Shaw, he needs right anyway?

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Speaker 2: An ultimate eye roll name, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 1: Think I would say it's more of a curve, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's more of the older are the less likely. But

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Speaker 1: Kyle winning him, I mean they mentioned that he's sixty

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Speaker 1: two and he's been now. When he signed up for Championship,

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Speaker 1: he was still in his fifties. But that's still yeah.

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Speaker 1: He I think maybe part of it comes down to also,

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Speaker 1: like you know, the jobs where you know you have

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Speaker 1: to figure out edges where you know you're not just

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Speaker 1: going to line up talent versus talent and beat teams.

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Speaker 1: You have to be a little more open minded. That's

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Speaker 1: still You're still going to find some coaches in those

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Speaker 1: jobs that would never ever ever go this route. But

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Speaker 1: the Winninghams of the world, and I'm trying to remember

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Speaker 1: Ference might be a client of theirs too. Okay, of

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Speaker 1: all the ways that he's conservative, I think his fourth

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Speaker 1: down strategy actually isn't horrible. Okay, he needs to learn

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Speaker 1: that throwing the ball well can help a lot of things.

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Speaker 1: There are other issues, but from fourth down perspective, you

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Speaker 1: might actually be okay too.

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Speaker 2: When you look across the sport, are there are there

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Speaker 2: a specially I mentioned some of those names, but are

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Speaker 2: there obvious cases where you're like, this team is just

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Speaker 2: leaving money on the table? This team is just they

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Speaker 2: have put together such a potentially winning program and because

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Speaker 2: of the way they make decisions that this is a

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Speaker 2: seven win program that should ultimately be an annual nine

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Speaker 2: win program.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I mean a and m is the first

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Speaker 1: one that comes to mind. They're obviously more than a

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Speaker 1: seven win program, or at least they should be pretty soon.

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Speaker 1: What were they eight and five this year?

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Speaker 2: Always eight?

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Speaker 1: Well like nine to one the year before. Yeah, that's true,

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Speaker 1: but it does feel like I mean Jimbo obviously, like

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Speaker 1: their lines are great, the talent levels are increasing, obviously,

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Speaker 1: but there are just certain aspects of what you might

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Speaker 1: call modernization that he just doesn't give a crap about,

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Speaker 1: and fourth downs are one of them. He had the

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Speaker 1: you know he when asked about that before they they

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Speaker 1: and an old miss game last year where you know, hey,

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Speaker 1: like Kiff, it goes for it a lot, what about you?

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Speaker 1: You never go for it? And he's like, wow, there's

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Speaker 1: a time and a place and there's that's not an

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Speaker 1: analytic and blah blah blah, and there's no book that

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Speaker 1: can tell you to all that stuff like that. And

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Speaker 1: his offense not a lot of bells and whistles not

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Speaker 1: They're just he has hit beliefs in this regard. He

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Speaker 1: is going to ride those beliefs as far as they

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Speaker 1: will go. And it got them a top five finished

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty. If they beat Alabama last year, like

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Speaker 1: it can take them very far, but it still feels

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Speaker 1: like they're leaving points on the table and making there

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Speaker 1: like the Rams, Like Rams won the Super Bowl. He's

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Speaker 1: he's allergic to fourth downs, but you can still win.

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Speaker 1: You're just leaving you're making your job harder. And I

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Speaker 1: don't like the thought of make and my job harder.

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Speaker 1: I like to make it easier when possible.

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Speaker 3: The first slash second cousin of fourth down conversions is

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Speaker 3: probably two point conversions. You reference this in the piece

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Speaker 3: as well. Do I understand this correctly? That the conversion

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Speaker 3: percentage in college football was forty four point seven, almost

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Speaker 3: forty five percent on two point tries.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was. It popped up this year. Yeah, we'll

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Speaker 1: see if that's if that's an outlier or whatever. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: and the odds are going to be lower in college

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Speaker 1: because it's from the three as opposed to the two,

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Speaker 1: which does mess with the math a little bit. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: they were strangely high this year.

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Speaker 3: Not only is it higher by about five percent over

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Speaker 3: the last six years, but also a great number more

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Speaker 3: two point conversions. So is analytics driving that decision? On

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Speaker 3: the coaching front? Is it style of play to what

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Speaker 3: do you attribute I guess the rise in just straight

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Speaker 3: up conversion attempts.

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Speaker 1: Well, it is I should look at the quality of

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Speaker 1: offense and the role that played, Like maybe they're the

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Speaker 1: ones going for it more right now, are going for

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Speaker 1: two more frequently right now, and they have the better offenses,

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Speaker 1: therefore the percentages are going to be higher. But it is.

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Speaker 1: I think there are a couple of scenarios now where

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Speaker 1: where you're seeing teams the whole down fourteen score and

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Speaker 1: go for two things, or down fifteen and go ahead

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Speaker 1: and go for two after the first touchdowns, so you know,

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Speaker 1: whether you know we're still down one score or two

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Speaker 1: after that. I think we're seeing certain scenarios where just

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Speaker 1: enough coaches have done and it's been just enough of

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Speaker 1: a conversation topic that we're starting to see that more frequently.

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Speaker 1: So I don't, Yeah, I'm not the whole forty four

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Speaker 1: point seven percent thing, like I'm still that popped up

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Speaker 1: quite a bit, and so that might not be real.

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Speaker 1: We'll have to see if it's if it's the kind

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Speaker 1: of the new level now moving forward. Maybe every you know,

433
00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,399
Speaker 1: people started seeing successful plays and putting them in the

434
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 1: playbook or so, but the biggest. The most interesting thing

435
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 1: there is that, you know, the percentage of touchdowns where

436
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 1: a team went for two did go up a little

437
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: bit like one and a half percent something over these

438
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: last few years, and that's probably due to those specific scenarios.

439
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 1: It does seem like that's something we're talking about a

440
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 1: little bit more and seeing a little bit more. And

441
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 1: I love it. I mean, the whole down fourteen thing

442
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:26,439
Speaker 1: is awesome because you basically get two shots at as

443
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:29,120
Speaker 1: long as you go one for two, then you're still,

444
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,679
Speaker 1: you know, tying the game if you score two touchdowns,

445
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,360
Speaker 1: and if you get the first one, suddenly you're down

446
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 1: six and you can win it with an extra point.

447
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 1: I love that one, and I like to see the

448
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:42,879
Speaker 1: teams are are using that one a little more often.

449
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 3: Bill, If you were out there coaching a team, and

450
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 3: if you had these numbers in front of you, given

451
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 3: all the pressures that you know, big time head coaches

452
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 3: are under right now, with especially the media and all

453
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:58,440
Speaker 3: the money that's involved, how would you play it?

454
00:22:58,600 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 2: Like?

455
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 3: Would you go straight by the book, like you were

456
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 3: playing a blackjack hand and just play the probability? Do

457
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 3: you think you'd I mean, Lane Kiffin referenced it in

458
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 3: your article about how it's one thing to say it

459
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:11,959
Speaker 3: on a sheet and see the numbers, it's another to

460
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 3: have it occur in front of one hundred thousand people

461
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 3: and knowing that you're gonna have to answer for it

462
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,440
Speaker 3: after the fact. Do you feel like coaches are still

463
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 3: a little too gun shy when it comes to this

464
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,360
Speaker 3: and they need to somehow find a way to toughen up.

465
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 1: They are absolutely too gun shy. And also I probably

466
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:32,879
Speaker 1: would be too. Yeah, the blackjack example is perfect because

467
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,399
Speaker 1: I you know, I would play blackjack on my phone.

468
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 1: I know all the sixteen and they're they're showing this

469
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 1: boom hit and then you like a ten dollars hand

470
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 1: at the casino or whatever you like. I'll stay And

471
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 1: I mean, I've done it. I'd like to think, well,

472
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 1: let's put it this way, if I'm hired as a

473
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 1: head coach, it's probably because of analytics, and therefore I

474
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,440
Speaker 1: should probably be following them at all times. But if

475
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 1: it was, but I mean, I absolutely understand and the

476
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 1: clamming up in those situations because it's just so easy

477
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 1: to do.

478
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 2: What are the variables involved? Both in fourth down conversions

479
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:13,639
Speaker 2: and in two point conversions. Obviously you're going to listen

480
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 2: to coaches who are always going to say, we are

481
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:20,239
Speaker 2: weighing a number of factors, not just the numbers of

482
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 2: like it's fourth and one from this yard line, but

483
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 2: it's obviously the score, it's the health, Like are you

484
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 2: starting a backup offensive line? Obviously that changes, you know,

485
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 2: the dynamic of what you're able to do on offense.

486
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 2: Is there also a threshold of how bad your defense

487
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 2: is in order to be going for more fourth downs

488
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 2: because that's the only way you can win games? So

489
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:43,400
Speaker 2: what are the variables at play?

490
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 1: That second part is actually I think more important than

491
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 1: people realize. I mean, the first part is like, yeah,

492
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 1: if you're if you're playing Alabama and you're a twenty

493
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 1: eight point HUNDREDOG or whatever, text, you might want to

494
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 1: take some chances here. That's probably the only way you're

495
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,439
Speaker 1: going to make of that deficit. Probably it's probably not

496
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 1: going to matter what you do, but you should probably

497
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: figure out some risks to take and or at least,

498
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 1: you know, open yourself up to a little more risk tolerance.

499
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 1: But I do think one thing that people don't necessarily

500
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 1: think as much about is not only like how bad

501
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 1: is your defense, But also like, how about is theirs?

502
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 1: Is this supposed to be a thirty eight to thirty

503
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 1: eight game or a sixteen to sixteen game, Because if

504
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: it's the latter, you know, punting and knowing that you're

505
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,639
Speaker 1: probably about to force another punt to like, suddenly that

506
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 1: field position game starts to matter a little more if

507
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: it's supposed to be a high scoring track meet, where

508
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 1: like voluntarily giving the ball to the other team instead

509
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,240
Speaker 1: of trying to get a yard yourself suddenly looks like

510
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:42,919
Speaker 1: the craziest move in the world. So that part, I

511
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 1: think the game flow or the expected game flow is

512
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 1: absolutely an area that matters, maybe a lot more than

513
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 1: we think.

514
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 2: This is also going to sound silly, and I hope

515
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 2: it does sound silly, because that's sort of the intention.

516
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:59,239
Speaker 2: If you are employed as a doctor, if you are

517
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 2: employed as a lot if you're employed as a banker,

518
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 2: there is an element of continued education that you have

519
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 2: to stay current with the latest updates to your field.

520
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 2: How do you get through to coaches? How do you

521
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 2: beyond shaming them online and in print orly as well

522
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 2: as we want it to right, How do you how

523
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 2: do you talk to an offensive coordinator. How do you

524
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 2: get through to a head coach when there is already

525
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 2: going to be an intact belief system right or wrong.

526
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 2: How do you approach continued education when it comes to

527
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 2: decision making? That's the big question.

528
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 1: That's a very good question. I mean, it really is

529
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 1: kind of like what we've seen here in that you

530
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:49,879
Speaker 1: find the crazy guys who are willing to listen, whether

531
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 1: you know it's it's Monking an army, whether it's Kiffin

532
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 1: and ole Miss and some others. Obviously, you find those

533
00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:59,880
Speaker 1: and they beat the team. They start beating the team

534
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 1: with very specific fourth down conversions, They start beating the

535
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 1: teams with the conservative old coaches who don't necessarily feel

536
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 1: like they need to change, right, and just the overall

537
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 1: I mean, I do think there's something to be said

538
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:19,919
Speaker 1: about just the overall behavior shift over enough of a

539
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: period of time. We see that a little bit with

540
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 1: running and passing over the last twenty five years. Obviously

541
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 1: the run rates haven't changed very much in this century,

542
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,640
Speaker 1: but they've still changed from forty to fifty years ago, right,

543
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 1: And so you know, I do think there's something to

544
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 1: be said for just at some point enough guys are

545
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:39,640
Speaker 1: doing it that it becomes kind of the conventional wisdom,

546
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:42,719
Speaker 1: this is what we do kind of deal. And you know,

547
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 1: and then the older coaches who are too conservative to

548
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 1: do anything about that retire, and you know, it becomes

549
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:49,640
Speaker 1: a more widespread deal.

550
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 2: How much do you know? And have you jumped into

551
00:27:55,000 --> 00:28:00,119
Speaker 2: the internal team data? Because we have every single pro

552
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 2: has analysts and interns and video departments that have these

553
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:10,360
Speaker 2: crazy databases of this is what Iowa State does against

554
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 2: twelve personnel in Nickel or whatever, and so they have

555
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 2: granular data with which to work. And yet and this

556
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 2: is every program, and yet teams are struggling to adjust,

557
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 2: are struggling to take risks, are struggling to evolve. Are

558
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 2: there teams that do a particularly good job internally of

559
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 2: using data to grow Alabama? Yeah?

560
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 1: N like that. I mean this is sadly, this is

561
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 1: kind of like in European soccer, where like the teams

562
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: that are best with data are like Liverpool and Manchester

563
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: City and right teams that had all the money anyway.

564
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 1: But I mean, I do think we know a lot

565
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 1: of the ones that evolve and grow really well because

566
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 1: they continue to remain at the top of the sport.

567
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,479
Speaker 1: And you know, others that fall off that a little bit.

568
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 1: That might be one of the reasons why. But I'm

569
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 1: looking at let's see, for if we just look at

570
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 1: straight forth down attempts, Well, this is going to be

571
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 1: kind of tricky because Alabama didn't really face many fourth

572
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 1: downs to begin with, right, so that like that's not

573
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 1: going to work very well. But you know, LSU was

574
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: up pretty high, Baylor was up pretty high, Tennessee was

575
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 1: up pretty high. Those are pretty young coaches, Tennessee and Baylor.

576
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 2: Has the data gotten better, by the way, has that date?

577
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 2: Has that data gotten better with better tracking? I assume

578
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 2: so everything gets better, but like, have there internally been

579
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 2: Has there been movement forward in terms of how accurate

580
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 2: that data tracking is?

581
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 1: Oh? Yeah, I mean, well, actually this is kind of

582
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 1: beside the point a little bit. But I do think

583
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 1: one thing that's going to help a lot when it

584
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 1: comes to proper decision making and just proper like understanding

585
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 1: of the situation. Once we get to the point of

586
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 1: having video tracking or whatnot, which we're not there yet

587
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 1: in college, there will be will be able to very

588
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 1: clearly understand the difference between what is fourth on one mean,

589
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 1: is that fourth and six inches, because that's like going

590
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 1: to be like ninety percent success rate, right, But fourth

591
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 1: and one point four to four feet or whatever our

592
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 1: yards is, that's going to be more like, you know,

593
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: sixty five percent or something to that effect. And so

594
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 1: that alone, and we will get that pretty soon. I

595
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 1: think that alone will make I think a big difference

596
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 1: as just in terms of awareness and everything else. That

597
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 1: wasn't really the point, but I do think that's an

598
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 1: area where, right, we can still make a pretty good improvement.

599
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 3: Bill, I'm glad you brought that up. I wanted to

600
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 3: ask about that next. So explain to us what you

601
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 3: mean by video tracking, because when I think video tracking

602
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 3: and football, I think of Sunday Night Football on NBC

603
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 3: where they hit a button and we got yellow lines

604
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 3: running up and down the field and you can see

605
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 3: what everybody's path was.

606
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 2: Yep, right from the Starnwell posts all the time, because

607
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 2: he's dialable with his sports. The dots. Yeah, exactly. So

608
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 2: how does.

609
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 3: Video tracking in the manner that you're describing it translate

610
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 3: to college football and what does that mean from a

611
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 3: data standpoint?

612
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: Well, I don't think we're I don't know if we're

613
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 1: going to get dots in college that comes from like

614
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 1: you know, the chips in the shoulder pads and all that,

615
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 1: and that when you think about the way college is

616
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 1: run or really not at all run, that would be

617
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 1: like the SEC doing it but nobody else or the

618
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 1: Big ten decided to do it, but nobody else. And

619
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 1: so why that's not going to really become widespread. But

620
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 1: what we're seeing and I think Seth Walder in the

621
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: piece of had a list of company companies that we're

622
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 1: trying to do this. I can only vouch for one

623
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 1: of the ones he mentioned, which is stats Bomb. I've

624
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: gotten to see some of the stuff stats bomb is doing.

625
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 1: And basically with stats bomb, they you know, they run

626
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 1: soccer at this point with what they do from a

627
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: data perspective, and it's basically, you know, they've got a

628
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: form of video people, you know, where they get the

629
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 1: x Y set up on the on the broadcast and

630
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 1: they can tell that that's you know, there's zero point

631
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 1: six yards to go here, not necessarily just fourth and one.

632
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 1: They can get really very very specific about the distances

633
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 1: we're talking about. And if you do that, and you

634
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: can basically measure exactly where the players are on the

635
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 1: screen at all times, which obviously helps to have the

636
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 1: all twenty two, but you know, you can still learn

637
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 1: a lot more about routes and all that, like very

638
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 1: specific information about routes, about how far a quarterback can

639
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 1: throw the ball, like literal yardage not necessarily twelve yards downfield,

640
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: but that specific pass traveled seventeen point nine to one

641
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 1: six yards or whatever. Once you get to that stage,

642
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 1: it's it's not the same as chips and shoulder pads,

643
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 1: but it serves eighty five percent of the same purpose.

644
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 1: And so you can get to where you're measuring speed

645
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 1: a lot better and passing a lot better and line

646
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: splits and all this other kind of stuff, and that's

647
00:32:58,320 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 1: going to be really cool. I think that's going to

648
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 1: help coaches a lot. And you know, like Brian Burke

649
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 1: said in my piece, like all the stuff he has

650
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 1: for pros regarding like the past block win rates and

651
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 1: all that stuff, once we have this kind of level

652
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 1: of data, like everything's already set up, he can just

653
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 1: kind of plug in what he's already got and suddenly

654
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 1: we have it for one hundred and thirty one teams

655
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: in college just to some degree, and that changes scouting.

656
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 1: It changes decision making in games. It changes just a

657
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 1: boatload of stuff that could be really really interesting.

658
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 3: Can you expand on that a little bit, like, how

659
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 3: how would it change my decision if I were a coach?

660
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 1: Just an example, Well, the decision making part, I mean

661
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 1: like it changes, I should say it changes scouting opponent scouting,

662
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:47,239
Speaker 1: especially in terms of like line splits and you know

663
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 1: if you line up wide, great, does that mean you're

664
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 1: all the way at the sideline on average? Doesn't mean

665
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 1: you're like at the hash all that kind of stuff.

666
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:57,440
Speaker 1: But then the decision making. What I mean by that is,

667
00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 1: among other things, being able to tell what's fourth and

668
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 1: a half yard and with the odds of conversion and stuff.

669
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 1: With being a little more specific with that is it

670
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: would help a lot. You know.

671
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 3: One of the other things that I know you called

672
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 3: out in the piece is the split between running and passing,

673
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,879
Speaker 3: and how currently in the NFL passing games a little

674
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,720
Speaker 3: bit more efficient. There is still this deep seated desire

675
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 3: to establish the run quote unquote establish the run. But

676
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 3: you know this is another frontier we're both in college

677
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 3: and pro. There is some efficiency perhaps to be gained. Specifically,

678
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 3: I believe you reference first down Is that right?

679
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:39,799
Speaker 1: Ye, Yeah, that was. I was shocked at the Bills,

680
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 1: Like in twenty twenty the Bills that was like their

681
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 1: whole hack was basically, we're gonna we're just gonna throw

682
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:47,800
Speaker 1: a lot on first down and you're not gonna be

683
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,799
Speaker 1: able to gang up on Josh Allen at all. Like

684
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 1: you know, the run game is gonna be kind of

685
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 1: minimized a little bit, but you're always have to be

686
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:56,799
Speaker 1: wary of what Josh Allen can do, and it's always

687
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 1: going to leave seven yard passes to the sideline open,

688
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:03,239
Speaker 1: and we're never gonna fall schedule. They're still like by

689
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 1: far doing that more than anybody else in the NFL.

690
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 1: I kind of thought other teams would use that as

691
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 1: an example. We've seen that forever, Like I remember one

692
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 1: year at Nebraska start of the year, like Taylor Martinez

693
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,399
Speaker 1: was thrown a lot on first downs and it made

694
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 1: them kind of unstoppable because like it just set up

695
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 1: constant second and fours that they can then run and convert.

696
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 1: And so it was like the it was interesting looking

697
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 1: at a lot of those past percentages though, because in general,

698
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,720
Speaker 1: like they jumped a few years ago in the NFL,

699
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 1: but then kind of fell back a little bit, and

700
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 1: part of that was potentially because of what defenses were

701
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 1: presenting the quarterbacks like on run pass options, making sure

702
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 1: they'd run stuff like that. But that growth that seemed

703
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,720
Speaker 1: to happen, because passing really is still dramatically more efficient

704
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,359
Speaker 1: than running. I kind of thought we'd see more of

705
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 1: that growth. And at the college level, the run pass

706
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 1: rates are exactly the same as they were like two

707
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,720
Speaker 1: thousand and one for the most part, which was shocking

708
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 1: to see. But so I don't know, like it seems

709
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 1: like obviously at the college level it's the run pass

710
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 1: thing is always going to be more run friendly because

711
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 1: you can actually get more out of the run game

712
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 1: in college, especially when you have the advantages to do so.

713
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 1: But it is it is strange that hasn't risen as

714
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 1: much as I expected it to.

715
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,879
Speaker 2: The thing you do, and this is what you do,

716
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:26,839
Speaker 2: is you quantify, right, You quantify the best teams at

717
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 2: defending explosion plays. You quantify the best teams at generating

718
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,919
Speaker 2: first downs on first and second downs. What we're talking

719
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 2: about is coaching decisions. Ye is there a metric somewhere,

720
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,879
Speaker 2: be it with college analytics, be it with somebody who

721
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 2: is able to grade coaches objectively on the rightest decision

722
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 2: makers in terms of fourth and short, in terms of

723
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 2: passing on first down, which is a little bit more

724
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:56,719
Speaker 2: objective because that's there's more variables there, but two point

725
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 2: conversion situationally all those things. Is there a way to

726
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 2: quantify the rightest dudes?

727
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 1: I know who is at edge sports? They are Football

728
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 1: outside is now under their umbrella, among other things I

729
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 1: know they will put out during the season, like the

730
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: you know, the coaches who are doing it right the most.

731
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 2: That's better English than I just used.

732
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 1: Yes, but but yeah, I mean they do that, and

733
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 1: you think about like a lot of the teams. I

734
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:29,800
Speaker 1: don't think I'm there yet. I'm probably not going to

735
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 1: be there by September. It does seem like decision making.

736
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:39,800
Speaker 1: If you are constantly closer to optimizing your decision making,

737
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 1: you're probably going to win more close games than everybody else.

738
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 1: You're probably going to like Northern Illinois went forward a

739
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 1: ton like they seem to be very very on the

740
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 1: ball in that regard. They want a ton of close games.

741
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,760
Speaker 1: As people us didn't like them because it didn't seem

742
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 1: necessarily sustainable. But if it's if part of it that

743
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 1: is coming from good decision making, like I was gonna

744
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 1: yelled at because s P plus hates arm or whatever

745
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 1: or they it did in those years when they were

746
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 1: going ten to three and eleven and two, well, they

747
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:08,080
Speaker 1: were making a whole lot of right decisions right while

748
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:11,360
Speaker 1: the teams were giving points away in those decisions opportunities.

749
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,359
Speaker 1: So it does seem like if there's a good way

750
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 1: to quantify that, that it should probably be taken into

751
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 1: account with something like SP plus because you're just more

752
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 1: likely to make the right calls at the right time

753
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 1: in close games and it's probably going to give you

754
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:28,800
Speaker 1: a semi permanent edge, so to speak.

755
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 2: Is there a way to situationally grade schools and coaches?

756
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 2: The big example I remember from this past year was

757
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 2: I think Penn State got the ball back against Michigan

758
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 2: late with essentially a chance to drive and win it,

759
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 2: and gave it back immediately. They looked lost, they looked

760
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:47,000
Speaker 2: like they didn't have a plan. And there's this whole

761
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 2: frontier And we've talked about this before of like the

762
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 2: four minute offense, right, and these are just all of

763
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 2: my dreams and there's too many variables for it to

764
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 2: be absolute but I want to know that Jeff Grimes

765
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:03,280
Speaker 2: or Joe Moore head or who have like Steve Sarkisian

766
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:05,839
Speaker 2: when he was at Alabama, any of these guys. This

767
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 2: guy is fourteen and two in four minutes off Like

768
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:12,360
Speaker 2: you know what I want a record of, Like, okay,

769
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 2: well we'll take away like drops and turnovers, but everything

770
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 2: within this guy's control, right, we can quantify this coordinator's record.

771
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 2: So when it comes to hiring, which is another thing

772
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 2: that you would like to have as much data as

773
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:26,759
Speaker 2: you can, you're like, yeah, we're gonna hire the guy

774
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 2: who's nine to oh with his four minute offense.

775
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 1: Who kills games when he has a chance, real games. Yeah. Well,

776
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:34,280
Speaker 1: I think one of the things I've talked to coaches

777
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 1: about before was like, is it really a four minute drill?

778
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,800
Speaker 1: Is it more like a three minute and twenty five second?

779
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,880
Speaker 1: Like at what point, yeah, do you enter that mode

780
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,279
Speaker 1: most effectively? And it was kind of I mean, I

781
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 1: didn't come up with a kind of answer. I don't. Yeah,

782
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:50,719
Speaker 1: I do think a lot of coaches go into that

783
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 1: too quickly, you know, like you know, like the basketball

784
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 1: team that starts milking clock when they're up six with

785
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:59,880
Speaker 1: seven minutes left or something. There are certainly you can

786
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,359
Speaker 1: certainly go into that mode too quickly and it ends

787
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,720
Speaker 1: up just you know, meaning you call three conservative plays

788
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 1: and you pump with five minutes left or something. So

789
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: you do have to time it correctly, and that is

790
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,120
Speaker 1: something that I know coaches have always been kind of

791
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 1: curious about. I'm sure some of them still use just

792
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 1: the like, well, under four minutes left, let's go for

793
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 1: a minute offense. But that is something very interesting. It's

794
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 1: it's it's obviously harder than saying they went for it

795
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 1: on fourth when they were supposed to. Therefore, you know,

796
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 1: that's more quantifiable than this, But it is definitely a

797
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: very very interesting thing that I think at least some

798
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,479
Speaker 1: coaches are open minded to find it out they're doing wrong.

799
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 3: Fair Bill, we've talked a lot about grading other people's stats,

800
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,839
Speaker 3: grading how coaches are doing. How do you grade your own?

801
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,879
Speaker 3: How did the sp plus do in twenty twenty one?

802
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 1: Well, the day is the best peop plus med in

803
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 1: Vegas are over. It's it just is like I it's informally,

804
00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 1: I like everything I've heard is you know, there are

805
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 1: it's it's basically part of the opening line now in

806
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 1: a lot for some books anyway, And so yeah, it's

807
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 1: it's over. It's not sp plus is always going to

808
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 1: lose to injury adjusted and context adjusted sp plus. It

809
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 1: just it just is. But I mean, obviously, the way

810
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 1: you can measure your own predictive like among other things,

811
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:25,799
Speaker 1: is like how what's the average error in a given game?

812
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 1: You can still evaluate that, and I've certainly found a

813
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,239
Speaker 1: couple of things to tinker with this season that that

814
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 1: might help that a little bit. It did. It had

815
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 1: its best year by far, both in terms of absolute

816
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:39,760
Speaker 1: error and against the spread in twenty nineteen, I think,

817
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:44,319
Speaker 1: which probably is one of the things that you know

818
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 1: with that and you know, moving to ESPN and all

819
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 1: that kind of got it a little bit more on books, books, radars.

820
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 1: But that's this year was still a little bit weird

821
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 1: from an average area standpoint, and whether that's something that's

822
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:02,239
Speaker 1: in a measures control, whether it's just the way things

823
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:04,120
Speaker 1: are going to be with more teams kind of packing

824
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:06,879
Speaker 1: it in a little earlier in the season, because that's

825
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 1: where it started to fall apart, was late in the year.

826
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:14,319
Speaker 2: I want metric level. I want metric level analysis where

827
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 2: you're like, okay, starting with week six or starting with

828
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:22,360
Speaker 2: week eight, the team who has the better explosive play

829
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:25,960
Speaker 2: defense beats Vegas x percent of the time, or the

830
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 2: team who stops explosive passes or the team who generates

831
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:33,319
Speaker 2: explosive runs. Like that's I want metric level analysis and

832
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 2: I will not stop until you give it to us.

833
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, I'll get back to you on that one.

834
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you. Is there is there a specific week

835
00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 2: where the data becomes especially accurate, maybe over the course

836
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 2: of a year.

837
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:50,320
Speaker 1: I mean it's kind of the line certainly get better

838
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,760
Speaker 1: over the last half of the year, where like Vegas

839
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:54,279
Speaker 1: has a better read on the teams, And of course

840
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:56,840
Speaker 1: then you know, injuries have taken effect in certain ways,

841
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,279
Speaker 1: and spplus is always going to be a little slow

842
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 1: to reacting injuries because I don't adjust for injuries. So

843
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:05,759
Speaker 1: it's right, I gotta do that very well. But that

844
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 1: is it. Definitely the lines have historically gotten a lot

845
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 1: better over the second half of the season. And you know,

846
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 1: on the flip side of that, s P plus usually

847
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 1: killed or used to kill Vegas in the first month

848
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:20,720
Speaker 1: of the season. Because of that, the preseason projections seem

849
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 1: to be the strongest thing that I bring to the

850
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 1: table overall, and you can kind of ride that for

851
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:28,360
Speaker 1: a little bit early in the season, and then the

852
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 1: lines adjusted, it gets a lot harder.

853
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 3: Bill Connolly, ESPN. As always, we appreciate your insight. I

854
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:36,879
Speaker 3: can't let you go though, without asking about the World

855
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 3: Cup draw, because we.

856
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:39,759
Speaker 1: Are I wasn't going to go without talking about the

857
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 1: World Yeah, of course, you weren't going to get rid

858
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:41,400
Speaker 1: of me.

859
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 3: No, no, I would do no such thing. We are

860
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:46,920
Speaker 3: recording this little early. Typically we'd record with Bill on

861
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 3: a Monday, but made more sense today to do it

862
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 3: on a Friday, So we are recording quite literally right

863
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 3: after they drew the US and Group B with England,

864
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 3: with Iran and with the winner of the European playoff,

865
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 3: which would be either Wales, Scotland or Ukraine.

866
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 2: I'm guessing you watched this.

867
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 3: I know you watched this. I know you're into it

868
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 3: as much as anybody. What's like your initial take on

869
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 3: what you saw and what our chances are as the

870
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 3: United States of America.

871
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 1: Well, I mean the first thing I saw was I'd

872
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 1: rather be in Mexico's group. Mexico got Argentina, Saudi Arabia

873
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 1: and Poland. Obviously Argentina and England kind of cancel out.

874
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:33,400
Speaker 1: But I think Iran is better Iran Iran, Iran Okay

875
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:37,240
Speaker 1: is better than Saudi Arabia, I think, or at least

876
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 1: just tougher, a more physical team. And whoever wins that

877
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 1: UEFA playoff, I think is better than Poland. So Mexico

878
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 1: definitely got a little bit more favorable draw. But it

879
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:48,800
Speaker 1: could be a hell of a lot worse. Couldn't And

880
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:51,759
Speaker 1: I mean even if even if we assume a loss

881
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 1: to England, which is not necessarily a fair assumption by

882
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 1: any means, you know, between Iran and I don't know

883
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,840
Speaker 1: who I would guests is coming out of that maybe

884
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 1: maybe I don't know. Wales was my first thought, but

885
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 1: that's not bad be you take more points from them

886
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:12,279
Speaker 1: than they take from you, and you're a pretty good

887
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 1: position to advance. It could be a lot worse. The

888
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 1: biggest thing for the US though, is like, let's actually

889
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:19,840
Speaker 1: see the first string on the field at some point,

890
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 1: you know, let's have a little moratorium on injuries for

891
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 1: the rest of twenty twenty two. Get Weston, McKinnon and

892
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 1: g Arena on the field at the same time. Sounds

893
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 1: pretty awesome, and if the full strength American team that

894
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 1: we haven't ever seen before, like twenty minutes over the summer,

895
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 1: all the best players played, it could be pretty good

896
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 1: and they get do something in this group.

897
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 3: I think of it from a couple of different perspectives, right,

898
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 3: I mean, we've had this conversation before. We're both into it.

899
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 3: We're both very plugged into what's going on here. I

900
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:53,479
Speaker 3: also think of it from the perspective of a college

901
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 3: football fan, and November is going to be nuts. It

902
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 3: is going to be nuts for those of us, especially

903
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:05,279
Speaker 3: that cover it, but particularly for anybody who cares about it,

904
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 3: because this is going to start spinning up just before Thanksgiving.

905
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 3: So that will encompass rivalry week, and that will certainly

906
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 3: enco encompass Championship Week depending on how deep the United

907
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 3: States goes, but certainly the tournament is going to go

908
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:23,279
Speaker 3: pretty deep into December. Have you given any thought, Bill

909
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 3: to what that's going to be like, because you cover

910
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:26,320
Speaker 3: both worlds.

911
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:30,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's I'm definitely I'm definitely not always super tired

912
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 1: and maybe a little crankier than normal by late November

913
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 1: because of everything already, So that definitely won't be a problem. No,

914
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 1: it's it is going to be something. I mean, the

915
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 1: fact that Missouri, Arkansas and England and America are happening

916
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:46,160
Speaker 1: on the same day, that's the weirdest thing in the

917
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 1: history of the world. I much prefer this World Cup

918
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 1: happening in June and July and whatnot. This is going

919
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 1: to be super weird. But I mean, I guess this

920
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:57,439
Speaker 1: is what the Fall of twenty twenty prepared us for.

921
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:00,160
Speaker 1: Like any event can happen at anytime. Kentucky Derby. Here

922
00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 1: comes to Kentucky Derby. French Open in September.

923
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 3: The Masters. Yeah, good call the Masters.

924
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:09,279
Speaker 1: That's right. Yeah, so this is this is uh, we're

925
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 1: ready for this moment. I guess are we're ready as

926
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 1: ready as we're ever going to be.

927
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 2: I watch some US men's national team. I'm not a diehard.

928
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 2: I don't watch international football as it were. What is

929
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 2: this team? I mean you mentioned that the best players

930
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:29,359
Speaker 2: haven't really played together. But if you are going into

931
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 2: the World Cup as an optimistic American soccer international football fan,

932
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 2: what is the identity? What is the strength? What is

933
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:37,520
Speaker 2: the question?

934
00:47:37,760 --> 00:47:37,840
Speaker 1: Like?

935
00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:39,839
Speaker 2: Is it just a From everything I can tell, it's

936
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 2: just like everybody's screaming, play the freshmen there, they have

937
00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:46,399
Speaker 2: higher ceilings. What what is? What is it that if

938
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:50,280
Speaker 2: you could encompass a description of the appeal of this squad,

939
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:51,239
Speaker 2: how would you do it?

940
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:54,880
Speaker 1: Well? I mean, playing the freshman is definitely part of it.

941
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 1: This is this is the most talented freshman class that

942
00:47:57,600 --> 00:48:03,440
Speaker 1: has ever come through the United States football club. It is.

943
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:07,399
Speaker 1: I mean, you've got you've got Grena, You've got you've

944
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:09,839
Speaker 1: got a whole bunch of guys who are playing for very,

945
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 1: very high level clubs in Europe. And you know, it's

946
00:48:13,200 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 1: funny looking back at like ninety four when we're really

947
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:19,359
Speaker 1: excited that somebody, you know, was basically would basically be

948
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:21,839
Speaker 1: like riding the bench at bayer Leverkusen. And now you've

949
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:26,719
Speaker 1: got a guy in McKenny who starts often for Juventus

950
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 1: and Raina who is probably win healthy at least the

951
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:32,759
Speaker 1: second or third best player on berrusci adortment at the moment,

952
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 1: and he's freaking nineteen or whatever. Right, Just so, yes,

953
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 1: Virginia doesk plays for Barcelona and and even if they

954
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 1: aren't necessarily humongous stars at those clubs, they play for

955
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 1: those clubs. That's different. That's extremely different. And what was

956
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:50,520
Speaker 1: most frustrating about this h this whole qualification tournament is,

957
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 1: you know, we we built the whole thing up. As

958
00:48:52,600 --> 00:48:55,040
Speaker 1: you know, we're gonna see Raina Pulisic, who's you know,

959
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 1: an old man at twenty two. You've got McKenny who's

960
00:48:57,600 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 1: also old at twenty two, Tyler Adams and defensive midfield

961
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:04,920
Speaker 1: is awesome, You've got dest Those five never saw the

962
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 1: field at the same time the entire tournament. One of

963
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:09,719
Speaker 1: them was always hurt, usually Rayna, who when he came

964
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:13,720
Speaker 1: back in this group looked phenomenal, has a little reminder

965
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:14,879
Speaker 1: about how good he could be.

966
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:19,920
Speaker 2: And so who's the superstar of this group? Then? Like

967
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:23,799
Speaker 2: who if they hit their ceiling is the super nova?

968
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:27,240
Speaker 3: The headliner is still Polisic, right, The headliner is still Polisic.

969
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:28,279
Speaker 2: But I think the.

970
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 3: Underrated part of the team is the midfield, and certainly

971
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 3: we saw that a little bit, Bill and you can

972
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 3: test this more than me. But with Wes McKinney being

973
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:42,920
Speaker 3: hurt this pass qualifying window, there were a lot of

974
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:46,120
Speaker 3: anxious moments. I mean, what he does in the midfield,

975
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 3: the fact that he's as physical as he is, that

976
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:50,080
Speaker 3: he's so calm on the ball, that he makes the

977
00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 3: right passes. He always seems to be in the right place.

978
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 3: You combine him with a guy like a Tyler Adams

979
00:49:55,920 --> 00:49:57,920
Speaker 3: more recently, with a guy like a Unis Mussa who

980
00:49:57,960 --> 00:50:00,320
Speaker 3: gets forward a little bit more, there's a nice balance

981
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:02,719
Speaker 3: in the midfield that I don't remember us having at

982
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:05,280
Speaker 3: any point in you know, somewhat recent memory.

983
00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:08,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, Mussa is a guy who like he's not he's

984
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:10,880
Speaker 1: he plays for Valencia in Spain. He doesn't play a

985
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:13,440
Speaker 1: ton for Valencia Valence. He's not that great in Spain,

986
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:16,400
Speaker 1: so he hasn't really found his footing in club yet.

987
00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:18,920
Speaker 1: But when he's right, but he's just a he's a

988
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:22,840
Speaker 1: very good ball handler basically, to put it in those terms.

989
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 1: He basically compliments McKinney and Adams perfectly, especially when death

990
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 1: is also healthy, because he's super fast on going down

991
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:34,280
Speaker 1: the right flank, and so you can just really frazzle

992
00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:39,080
Speaker 1: opponents when you've got really physical McKinney, really controlled Adams,

993
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:42,319
Speaker 1: very very good dribbler and whatnot in musse and then

994
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 1: just super fast desk. You can distract opponents with those

995
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:49,960
Speaker 1: guys and you still have Polisic and Raina ready to

996
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:51,880
Speaker 1: do a lot of damage in the box, and so

997
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:54,080
Speaker 1: they all I think that's been the most exciting part

998
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 1: is realizing how complimentary they all seem to be. And

999
00:50:57,120 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 1: the most frustrating part is that we haven't ever seen

1000
00:50:59,080 --> 00:51:00,080
Speaker 1: them on the field at the same on.

1001
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:02,719
Speaker 3: To prove this, the other thing I'll point out real quick,

1002
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:03,719
Speaker 3: Dan and then we'll let Bill do.

1003
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 2: I have one more question? I just but go for it.

1004
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:08,759
Speaker 3: The other thing I'll point out is if it's a

1005
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:12,879
Speaker 3: twenty three man roster, what percentage would you say Bill

1006
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:15,279
Speaker 3: is always willing to get into a fight at a

1007
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 3: moment's notice. I'd say it's at least seventy percent.

1008
00:51:18,560 --> 00:51:21,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, And that was I mean, we all, like Polisic,

1009
00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 1: you know, almost started a fight against Panama and he

1010
00:51:23,400 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 1: didn't even have Big McKinney there backing them up.

1011
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 3: That was I like that they're always ready for a throwdown.

1012
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:30,520
Speaker 3: They're always ready for.

1013
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:33,120
Speaker 1: Its writing as like when he scored the goals like

1014
00:51:33,160 --> 00:51:36,400
Speaker 1: that was that was great. Yeah, But it is funny

1015
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:39,960
Speaker 1: because the most noteworthy thing that happened in qualification is

1016
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:41,440
Speaker 1: because they didn't have all the right pieces, you know,

1017
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:43,839
Speaker 1: Greg Borrough. They want to control the ball. They want

1018
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:46,520
Speaker 1: to be able to play the more ball, control a

1019
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 1: heavier possession style really well. But because they didn't have

1020
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:53,640
Speaker 1: all the right pieces there, it became this weird situation

1021
00:51:53,680 --> 00:51:56,319
Speaker 1: in qualification where they wanted to control the ball, and

1022
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 1: the more they controlled the ball, the worse they did.

1023
00:51:59,680 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 1: But like against Mexico they should have won at Mexico,

1024
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 1: they had like forty three percent possession. Against Mexico they

1025
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:08,239
Speaker 1: should have they destroyed Panama had like whatever it was,

1026
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:11,720
Speaker 1: forty six percent possession against Panama or something. The less

1027
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:13,440
Speaker 1: the more they can basically give you the ball and

1028
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:16,399
Speaker 1: turn you over and use their speed, the better they do.

1029
00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 1: But they don't want to do that. They wanted to

1030
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:19,520
Speaker 1: do this other thing that they weren't as good at.

1031
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:21,200
Speaker 2: That's what I was going to ask. Are they running

1032
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 2: the right system right? Should they be playing the the

1033
00:52:25,000 --> 00:52:27,560
Speaker 2: Stanford ball and trying to control the ball or should

1034
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:29,839
Speaker 2: they be doing like twenty sixteen Pence State with Joe

1035
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 2: Morehead and just like screw it, Chris Godwin, go deep,

1036
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:33,400
Speaker 2: let's see what happens.

1037
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:36,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it really depends. If it's full strength,

1038
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:38,919
Speaker 1: they it might be able to get away with that Okay.

1039
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:42,799
Speaker 1: What we definitely learned in this was the more aggressive

1040
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:45,360
Speaker 1: they were, the less they just tried to work the

1041
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:47,279
Speaker 1: ball around and maybe screw up in the wrong area

1042
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:51,479
Speaker 1: of the pitch right like the worst they did. Yeah,

1043
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 1: it'll be really interesting, and I think most of it

1044
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:56,560
Speaker 1: just comes down to, like, do you have the right

1045
00:52:56,560 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 1: guys there? And so many of the choices Burhalter as

1046
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:02,960
Speaker 1: far as personnel or who's started and all that kind

1047
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:05,439
Speaker 1: of drove me crazy a little bit. He had one

1048
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 1: hand tied behind his back the entire tournament, and I

1049
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:08,920
Speaker 1: acknowledge that.

1050
00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 2: Do you agree, Ty, I do? I do.

1051
00:53:11,560 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 3: Bill Connolly from ESPN always the smartest guy in the room.

1052
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:18,359
Speaker 2: At least this room for sure, this room. Yeah yeah,

1053
00:53:18,400 --> 00:53:19,000
Speaker 2: oh yeah.

1054
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:21,080
Speaker 3: We appreciate you stopping by. We have seven and a

1055
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 3: half months to break this World Cup qualifying drawdown, which

1056
00:53:25,080 --> 00:53:27,439
Speaker 3: I'm sure we'll do with you at some point again

1057
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:29,760
Speaker 3: here before it gets closer. Bill Connelly, thank you again.

1058
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 3: Absolutely all right, Dan, there you go. Bill Connolly ESPN

1059
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:37,279
Speaker 3: dot Com, thank you for helping me get some of

1060
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:39,360
Speaker 3: those World Cup thoughts out of my system.

1061
00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:42,799
Speaker 2: I appreciate that, of course, Ty, Come on, I want

1062
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:45,960
Speaker 2: the dragon to be released. I want you to to,

1063
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:50,320
Speaker 2: along with the men's national team, rise like the phoenix

1064
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:54,279
Speaker 2: out of the disappointment that was twenty eighteen. Yes, and

1065
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:57,799
Speaker 2: so I'm always going to be in favor of you

1066
00:53:57,840 --> 00:53:59,480
Speaker 2: bringing that kind of energy to the show.

1067
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:03,960
Speaker 3: Absolutely. All right, you wanted to talk Final four, Fast Food,

1068
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:06,000
Speaker 3: Final four, Fast Food, Fast Food, Final four.

1069
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:07,239
Speaker 1: To be clear, did you.

1070
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:09,359
Speaker 2: By the way, did you watch Duke North Carolina at all?

1071
00:54:10,000 --> 00:54:12,319
Speaker 3: I watched the first three minutes, I fell asleep and

1072
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:14,880
Speaker 3: then I woke up for the final thirty seconds.

1073
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:18,040
Speaker 2: Okay, So I've been to a Duke North Carolina game

1074
00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 2: at s Chrzewskiville at Cameron Indoor for the old s

1075
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 2: I gig. I went and covered that scene, the culture

1076
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:28,239
Speaker 2: of that scene, which is terrific and amazing. And so

1077
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 2: I have this investment not in Duke or North Carolina,

1078
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:33,239
Speaker 2: but I just love the rivalry, as I do most

1079
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:36,840
Speaker 2: college rivalry. So I had to watch it, and man,

1080
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 2: the not pettiness, but the dagger, you know, the Bill

1081
00:54:43,080 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 2: Raftery Iss, the dagger of being coach k and losing

1082
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:48,839
Speaker 2: your final regular season.

1083
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:51,440
Speaker 3: North Carolina, oh my gosh.

1084
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 2: And then your final tournament in the final four game

1085
00:54:56,239 --> 00:54:59,439
Speaker 2: to North Carolina to Hubert Davis, first year head coach.

1086
00:54:59,440 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 2: I believe right, he just took over for Roy Williams.

1087
00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 2: And I don't know anything about college basketball anymore, but

1088
00:55:04,960 --> 00:55:09,760
Speaker 2: I know enough where man, the look on Coach K's face.

1089
00:55:09,880 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 2: I'm not a Coach K fan. I don't know if

1090
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:13,359
Speaker 2: you are. I don't know if you like go to

1091
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:16,480
Speaker 2: his lectures, which, by the way, if you watch a

1092
00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:21,680
Speaker 2: Duke game, you go to his lecture. I've always held

1093
00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:24,239
Speaker 2: a little bit against Coach K and Obby. He's an

1094
00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:26,400
Speaker 2: excellent coach who's done excellent things. He's a lleged But

1095
00:55:27,760 --> 00:55:30,839
Speaker 2: when he lectured Dylan Brooks, the former Oregon player now

1096
00:55:30,920 --> 00:55:34,000
Speaker 2: NBA player, after Dylan Brooks kind of dunked it at

1097
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:36,279
Speaker 2: the end of a fourteen points Dylan Brooks do going

1098
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 2: with a weird ear. No, that was Tawan Porter different.

1099
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:42,480
Speaker 2: I'm showing my college basketball stripes.

1100
00:55:42,520 --> 00:55:43,320
Speaker 3: Now continue.

1101
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:46,759
Speaker 2: Dylan Brooks is probably and he's a good player for

1102
00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:52,879
Speaker 2: the Grizzlies now. So, Dylan Brooks is probably the absolute

1103
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 2: height of former Oregon players who Oregon fans loved and

1104
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 2: everybody who played Oregon, Hey like he was a genuine

1105
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:05,160
Speaker 2: a hole on the court, but was awesome. It was

1106
00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:07,520
Speaker 2: like a conference player of the Year and was Oregon's

1107
00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:10,280
Speaker 2: best player for deep tournament runs. So he was terrific.

1108
00:56:10,560 --> 00:56:12,640
Speaker 2: But he he's the one who kind of showed up

1109
00:56:12,760 --> 00:56:15,080
Speaker 2: Duke at the end of a comfortable win. I don't know,

1110
00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:17,800
Speaker 2: Sweet sixteen, Elite eight, something like that, round of thirty

1111
00:56:17,800 --> 00:56:20,600
Speaker 2: two maybe, and Coach K pulled him aside and said,

1112
00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:22,880
Speaker 2: you're too good to act like that at the end

1113
00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:25,760
Speaker 2: of a game. Bill brook was like, Okay, sure, dude,

1114
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 2: And I've just I just loved that that moment so

1115
00:56:29,239 --> 00:56:30,160
Speaker 2: much from Dylan Brooks.

1116
00:56:30,200 --> 00:56:31,919
Speaker 3: I don't have a problem with Coach K. I don't

1117
00:56:31,920 --> 00:56:34,520
Speaker 3: really have a problem with Duke. I don't either way,

1118
00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:35,240
Speaker 3: Like I'm good.

1119
00:56:35,680 --> 00:56:38,359
Speaker 2: Oh, I've loved Duke players over these I don't have

1120
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:41,799
Speaker 2: so much any problem with it. I will admit when

1121
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:43,960
Speaker 2: I heard that it was gonna be Duke North Carolina,

1122
00:56:44,280 --> 00:56:47,799
Speaker 2: I did fear a little bit for Jim Nantz. Yeah.

1123
00:56:47,840 --> 00:56:51,680
Speaker 3: Sure, that's the kind of situation you figure. Duke North

1124
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:55,000
Speaker 3: Carolina a week removed from the Masters, with a probable

1125
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:59,759
Speaker 3: Tiger comeback. Yeah, that's just that's too much likely coming back.

1126
00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:00,640
Speaker 2: A thing's coming.

1127
00:57:00,680 --> 00:57:01,799
Speaker 3: He's definitely coming back.

1128
00:57:02,360 --> 00:57:05,480
Speaker 2: I mean, we are recording this once again Monday of Masters.

1129
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:06,920
Speaker 3: I'll go on I'll go on the record and say

1130
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:09,239
Speaker 3: he's coming back. He's coming back, Okay, and so nothing

1131
00:57:09,239 --> 00:57:11,799
Speaker 3: has been confirmed at the time of this recording. Okay, no,

1132
00:57:12,000 --> 00:57:15,279
Speaker 3: but he's coming back. And I'll just say that I

1133
00:57:15,360 --> 00:57:17,080
Speaker 3: did worry a little bit for Jim Dance and his

1134
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 3: ability to sleep and be prepped and ready to go

1135
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:25,080
Speaker 3: with so much emotional baggage for him to dissect. Let's

1136
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:28,680
Speaker 3: stay between the final four Coach K final game and

1137
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:30,840
Speaker 3: now the Tiger thing, which I think is going to happen.

1138
00:57:31,480 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 3: I did worry a little bit for him. I will

1139
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:37,400
Speaker 3: say that the North Carolina sending Coach K to his

1140
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:40,120
Speaker 3: career graveyard is the kind of thing they're going to

1141
00:57:40,160 --> 00:57:43,840
Speaker 3: put in a trophy case somewhere unbelievable. Well that they

1142
00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:45,080
Speaker 3: post on the website.

1143
00:57:45,280 --> 00:57:49,800
Speaker 2: Have you you know what what Duke related item is

1144
00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:54,120
Speaker 2: in like the North Carolina basketball facility, right, So there

1145
00:57:54,200 --> 00:57:57,000
Speaker 2: is and it's it's the absolute height of both pettiness

1146
00:57:57,000 --> 00:58:01,080
Speaker 2: and class, which I can appreciate. They have a framed

1147
00:58:01,240 --> 00:58:07,520
Speaker 2: letter from Coach K to Michael Jordan basically conceding recruiting

1148
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:10,400
Speaker 2: defeat and saying like, good luck in your career. Like

1149
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:13,680
Speaker 2: it's a totally classy, mature letter from Coach K to

1150
00:58:13,720 --> 00:58:16,800
Speaker 2: Michael Jordan. But I believe that is on display in

1151
00:58:16,880 --> 00:58:20,560
Speaker 2: the North Carolina facility, Coach K saying hey, we didn't

1152
00:58:20,600 --> 00:58:23,640
Speaker 2: get you, but good luck with everything which obviously went

1153
00:58:23,680 --> 00:58:26,920
Speaker 2: on worked out okay, terrific for all parties involved, I

1154
00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:31,600
Speaker 2: guess other than Duke. So yeah, look at us spanning golf,

1155
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:37,160
Speaker 2: spanning golf, college basketball, soccer, soccer. We've been talking with

1156
00:58:37,280 --> 00:58:40,520
Speaker 2: guests about boat goals because that was a topic on

1157
00:58:40,560 --> 00:58:43,840
Speaker 2: this show. Jim Nance has to be backyard goals for you?

1158
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:47,040
Speaker 2: Does it not backyard goals? Do you not know about

1159
00:58:47,080 --> 00:58:48,240
Speaker 2: Jim Nance's backyard.

1160
00:58:48,360 --> 00:58:50,800
Speaker 3: I know about Jim Nance's toast and he likes it

1161
00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:53,600
Speaker 3: super burnt. I know he's been on the cover of

1162
00:58:53,680 --> 00:58:57,200
Speaker 3: cigar magazines, which isn't really my party, but whatever to

1163
00:58:57,240 --> 00:58:59,800
Speaker 3: each his own. I know he's into golf, I know

1164
00:58:59,840 --> 00:59:02,760
Speaker 3: he's into basketball. I know he's into football. I know

1165
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:04,800
Speaker 3: a lot about Jim Nance. I don't know about his backyard.

1166
00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:07,480
Speaker 2: So I'm going to send you a link right now

1167
00:59:07,760 --> 00:59:10,600
Speaker 2: for you to react to live about jim Nantz's backyard

1168
00:59:10,600 --> 00:59:13,600
Speaker 2: I think in northern California somewhere I think not far

1169
00:59:13,680 --> 00:59:16,440
Speaker 2: from uh from Pebble Beach. Take a look at that

1170
00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:19,640
Speaker 2: link in that picture, jim Nantz has a hole, a

1171
00:59:19,720 --> 00:59:26,280
Speaker 2: golf hole in his backyard. Like I think you tee

1172
00:59:26,280 --> 00:59:30,040
Speaker 2: off up on a hill. Look at that. Yeah, and

1173
00:59:30,080 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 2: he like brings.

1174
00:59:33,080 --> 00:59:35,840
Speaker 3: That is a confident Man's right. It's a confident man

1175
00:59:35,880 --> 00:59:37,880
Speaker 3: because if you thin that, it's going.

1176
00:59:37,680 --> 00:59:40,160
Speaker 2: Through a window. I want to say justin Timberlake also

1177
00:59:40,200 --> 00:59:42,080
Speaker 2: had something similar at one point. But would you do

1178
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:44,320
Speaker 2: that in your own backyard? Maybe not that set up,

1179
00:59:44,720 --> 00:59:46,920
Speaker 2: but that has to be a backyard goal of yoree

1180
00:59:47,120 --> 00:59:49,960
Speaker 2: love to Oh, I'd love to. Yeah, I don't.

1181
00:59:50,040 --> 00:59:51,800
Speaker 3: I don't know how Solid Wife Kate wouldeel.

1182
00:59:52,360 --> 00:59:54,920
Speaker 2: That's okay, that's it's a concession. Marriage is about compromise.

1183
00:59:55,080 --> 00:59:56,680
Speaker 3: Solid Wife Kate is trying to get me to plan

1184
00:59:56,720 --> 01:00:00,120
Speaker 3: a zucchini and I'm not willing to do that. And

1185
01:00:01,040 --> 01:00:02,600
Speaker 3: so if I come to her with, hey, you want

1186
01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:03,560
Speaker 3: to build a golf hole.

1187
01:00:03,520 --> 01:00:05,240
Speaker 2: All right, here's what I have for you. By the way,

1188
01:00:05,280 --> 01:00:08,120
Speaker 2: in the final four, as we conclude this episode, I

1189
01:00:08,160 --> 01:00:11,680
Speaker 2: would say strong to very strong episode. That's my opinion. Sure,

1190
01:00:12,160 --> 01:00:15,160
Speaker 2: the final four is McDonald's fries against the Chick fil

1191
01:00:15,200 --> 01:00:18,200
Speaker 2: A Chicken sandwich, the In and Out Double Double against

1192
01:00:18,240 --> 01:00:22,320
Speaker 2: the Dairy Queen Blizzard, and the McDonald's fries got there

1193
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:25,200
Speaker 2: in defeating the Culver's Butterburger. The Chick fil A got

1194
01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:30,080
Speaker 2: to the final four defeating Popeyes chicken sandwich, The In

1195
01:00:30,160 --> 01:00:32,640
Speaker 2: and Out Double Double got there beating the Wendy's Frosty,

1196
01:00:33,200 --> 01:00:37,280
Speaker 2: and the Dairy Queen Blizzard got there beating mcmuffins. Or yeah,

1197
01:00:37,280 --> 01:00:40,439
Speaker 2: it just hays mcmuffins in general. Yeah, Okay, I don't

1198
01:00:40,520 --> 01:00:43,480
Speaker 2: have a strong opinion about any of those defeats. I

1199
01:00:43,520 --> 01:00:46,480
Speaker 2: think the Chick fil A Chicken sandwich to me is well,

1200
01:00:46,480 --> 01:00:49,560
Speaker 2: the spicy one is slightly better than the Popeyes one,

1201
01:00:49,680 --> 01:00:53,680
Speaker 2: but that's a personal preference for the flavor of the chicken.

1202
01:00:53,760 --> 01:00:57,640
Speaker 2: This is the regular Chick fil A chicken sandwich, that's

1203
01:00:57,680 --> 01:00:59,520
Speaker 2: all I can tell. Yes, the right which is also

1204
01:00:59,600 --> 01:01:02,560
Speaker 2: very good. Yeah, yeah, it's very good. So I don't

1205
01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:06,080
Speaker 2: have a strong opinion about the double double versus the

1206
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:10,760
Speaker 2: Dairy Queen Blizzard. I'd be inclined to go double double. Okay,

1207
01:01:10,880 --> 01:01:12,040
Speaker 2: clearly the heavyweights.

1208
01:01:12,040 --> 01:01:15,360
Speaker 3: Here are McDonald's fries against the Chick fil a Chicken Sandwich,

1209
01:01:15,720 --> 01:01:17,600
Speaker 3: and I just feel like I'll go back to what

1210
01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:20,360
Speaker 3: I said before, either on an off topic show or

1211
01:01:20,360 --> 01:01:21,800
Speaker 3: a Q and A show, or maybe it was.

1212
01:01:21,720 --> 01:01:22,840
Speaker 2: One of our college football shows.

1213
01:01:22,880 --> 01:01:23,400
Speaker 1: I don't remember.

1214
01:01:24,120 --> 01:01:28,080
Speaker 3: The McDonald's fries have remained in state for a good

1215
01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 3: long time, and the fact that all of the competition

1216
01:01:31,480 --> 01:01:35,800
Speaker 3: has felt the need to change their recipe or their process,

1217
01:01:36,280 --> 01:01:39,280
Speaker 3: or their spices or the level of crispiness. There is

1218
01:01:39,320 --> 01:01:43,320
Speaker 3: definitely a Nick Saban quality to the McDonald's fries and

1219
01:01:43,360 --> 01:01:45,840
Speaker 3: that everybody else has gone nuts trying to match them,

1220
01:01:46,280 --> 01:01:48,640
Speaker 3: and they still haven't been able to do it. I

1221
01:01:48,680 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 3: love the Chick fil a Chicken sandwich, you know where

1222
01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:53,400
Speaker 3: I stand on that. But of course, for me, the alpha,

1223
01:01:53,400 --> 01:01:55,240
Speaker 3: I don't know if you got the sound the alpha,

1224
01:01:56,240 --> 01:01:59,320
Speaker 3: thank you, Yeah, is definitely McDonald's fries.

1225
01:02:00,520 --> 01:02:00,720
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1226
01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:02,520
Speaker 2: Once again, they changed the oil up and now I

1227
01:02:02,520 --> 01:02:04,320
Speaker 2: think it was like twenty years ago. They went from

1228
01:02:04,360 --> 01:02:08,880
Speaker 2: the essentially rendered be fat is where they fried the

1229
01:02:08,920 --> 01:02:11,920
Speaker 2: fries into I think peanut oil. I don't have that

1230
01:02:11,960 --> 01:02:15,000
Speaker 2: information in front of me. My my tum tum can't

1231
01:02:15,040 --> 01:02:17,040
Speaker 2: handle dairy the way it used to. So I just

1232
01:02:17,080 --> 01:02:19,160
Speaker 2: have to sort of be neutral on the blizzard. I

1233
01:02:19,160 --> 01:02:22,240
Speaker 2: remember it being very good and having differently chopping mix

1234
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:25,800
Speaker 2: in's and all that. It's fine. The double double is

1235
01:02:25,840 --> 01:02:29,280
Speaker 2: good and I really love in and out. I opt

1236
01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:32,560
Speaker 2: for going two cheeseburgers instead because I think that there's

1237
01:02:32,600 --> 01:02:34,480
Speaker 2: a more balance to the cheeseburger. What that's you know,

1238
01:02:34,520 --> 01:02:38,040
Speaker 2: that's personal choice. Mentioned the Chick fil a chicken sandwich.

1239
01:02:38,160 --> 01:02:40,480
Speaker 2: I just I would go that the chicken sandwich over

1240
01:02:40,520 --> 01:02:43,640
Speaker 2: the fries, because if I just channel my inner Marie Condo,

1241
01:02:43,880 --> 01:02:47,040
Speaker 2: it sparks more joy. If you offered me a carton

1242
01:02:47,080 --> 01:02:50,240
Speaker 2: of McDonald's fries and a Chick fil a chicken sandwich,

1243
01:02:50,560 --> 01:02:53,840
Speaker 2: I would be happier to accept the chick flake.

1244
01:02:54,000 --> 01:02:56,440
Speaker 3: Let me ask you this, though, let me ask you this. Yeah,

1245
01:02:56,680 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 3: which do you eat more frequently? Chick fil Right, definitely,

1246
01:03:01,600 --> 01:03:03,960
Speaker 3: And I think that's another reason why you go fries,

1247
01:03:04,000 --> 01:03:06,120
Speaker 3: because I don't get fries that much. But when I

1248
01:03:06,160 --> 01:03:09,640
Speaker 3: get the fries, it's a treat, right, you treat yourself

1249
01:03:09,680 --> 01:03:10,520
Speaker 3: when you get the fries.

1250
01:03:10,720 --> 01:03:12,440
Speaker 2: You know they're not good. None of the stuff's good

1251
01:03:12,440 --> 01:03:12,600
Speaker 2: for you.

1252
01:03:12,680 --> 01:03:15,840
Speaker 3: But the fact that they are unrivaled the fact that

1253
01:03:15,920 --> 01:03:17,720
Speaker 3: when I get them, it's a rare treat. The answer

1254
01:03:17,760 --> 01:03:18,600
Speaker 3: is McDonald's fries.

1255
01:03:18,600 --> 01:03:20,880
Speaker 2: They're going all the way. Are you dipping them in anything?

1256
01:03:20,960 --> 01:03:22,160
Speaker 2: Ketchup barbecue?

1257
01:03:22,240 --> 01:03:24,000
Speaker 3: I mean, I go ketchup, you know, I mean we've

1258
01:03:24,000 --> 01:03:25,000
Speaker 3: talked about ketchup before.

1259
01:03:25,040 --> 01:03:25,880
Speaker 2: I'll go ketchup.

1260
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:29,240
Speaker 3: Sometimes needs a little salt depending how they come out.

1261
01:03:29,280 --> 01:03:31,960
Speaker 3: But wait, the McDonald's fries need additional salt to you

1262
01:03:32,280 --> 01:03:33,800
Speaker 3: sometimes somehow.

1263
01:03:34,040 --> 01:03:35,000
Speaker 2: Not all the time.

1264
01:03:35,200 --> 01:03:37,240
Speaker 3: But for me, it's fries fries of the winner here.

1265
01:03:38,480 --> 01:03:40,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would probably go. I think the Chick fil

1266
01:03:40,480 --> 01:03:44,920
Speaker 2: a chicken sandwich is a finished master work co products. Well,

1267
01:03:44,920 --> 01:03:46,320
Speaker 2: look right in, let us know.

1268
01:03:46,560 --> 01:03:48,640
Speaker 3: And if you want to mix it up with the

1269
01:03:48,720 --> 01:03:51,480
Speaker 3: verballer hood, you're going out to verballers dot com.

1270
01:03:51,480 --> 01:03:51,720
Speaker 1: Again.

1271
01:03:51,760 --> 01:03:54,400
Speaker 3: That's the Patreon. We've had some folks who've been very

1272
01:03:54,440 --> 01:03:57,560
Speaker 3: adamant about this, very adamant about putting this fast food

1273
01:03:57,600 --> 01:04:01,080
Speaker 3: bracket together. I saw the sheet somebody put some time

1274
01:04:01,080 --> 01:04:02,760
Speaker 3: in on this, Dan Like, we got people who are

1275
01:04:02,840 --> 01:04:05,960
Speaker 3: very serious about this, not just serious college football fans,

1276
01:04:06,000 --> 01:04:08,400
Speaker 3: but just serious people, the kinds of people that we

1277
01:04:08,480 --> 01:04:12,520
Speaker 3: wish to associate ourselves with. In the bihood. Forballers dot

1278
01:04:12,560 --> 01:04:14,840
Speaker 3: Com again is where you can access that. You can

1279
01:04:14,880 --> 01:04:19,600
Speaker 3: also get access to our shows, our videos, some other

1280
01:04:19,640 --> 01:04:21,880
Speaker 3: odds and ends that aren't available to the general public.

1281
01:04:21,920 --> 01:04:24,520
Speaker 3: Forballers dot com, please subscribe to the show. If you

1282
01:04:24,560 --> 01:04:27,240
Speaker 3: haven't a ready follow on social media, so I'll giveaway.

1283
01:04:27,280 --> 01:04:29,600
Speaker 3: Dot com is where you can get access, where you

1284
01:04:29,680 --> 01:04:32,680
Speaker 3: get your name in the hat, get access to the hat.

1285
01:04:32,960 --> 01:04:35,640
Speaker 3: Mm hmmm, aj brown Side will miss Mini helms.

1286
01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:38,960
Speaker 2: Oh hatty Toddy, Yeah, I'm looking right now. The In

1287
01:04:39,000 --> 01:04:42,600
Speaker 2: and Out Double Double defeated the Rby's Curly Fry. I'm

1288
01:04:42,640 --> 01:04:45,240
Speaker 2: not a cur you know, Oh man, I think that's

1289
01:04:45,320 --> 01:04:48,520
Speaker 2: I hate curly. I think that's that's that's Burrow to

1290
01:04:48,760 --> 01:04:50,120
Speaker 2: Chase now a combination.

1291
01:04:50,240 --> 01:04:52,280
Speaker 3: To me, I'm staunchly anti curly Fry.

1292
01:04:53,080 --> 01:04:53,480
Speaker 2: Insane.

1293
01:04:53,560 --> 01:04:53,800
Speaker 1: They are.

1294
01:04:53,840 --> 01:04:55,800
Speaker 2: They are an insanely good dipper.

1295
01:04:56,120 --> 01:04:58,520
Speaker 3: They put some sort of spice on those things that

1296
01:04:58,600 --> 01:05:02,320
Speaker 3: you want to talk about upset in the I'm tom Yeah,

1297
01:05:02,400 --> 01:05:05,120
Speaker 3: we got to clear the afternoon. If we're going curly fries.

1298
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:08,240
Speaker 2: That's insane. That's an insane take. I respect that you

1299
01:05:08,240 --> 01:05:11,200
Speaker 2: were courageous enough to make it, but I don't just

1300
01:05:11,200 --> 01:05:13,360
Speaker 2: fully this if we're talking. We're starting to show off

1301
01:05:13,360 --> 01:05:15,400
Speaker 2: by talking about twenty four hour bugs, and you're talking

1302
01:05:15,440 --> 01:05:19,840
Speaker 2: about your intolerance to dairy. How can you eat McDonald's

1303
01:05:19,840 --> 01:05:22,360
Speaker 2: fries and say like, no, no, no, Arby's fries get you.

1304
01:05:22,640 --> 01:05:23,840
Speaker 3: I don't know what they put on I don't know

1305
01:05:23,880 --> 01:05:25,919
Speaker 3: what they put on them. They put something on them,

1306
01:05:26,360 --> 01:05:28,160
Speaker 3: and I'm telling you, I got to clear the afternoon.

1307
01:05:29,080 --> 01:05:31,800
Speaker 3: I'll eat them, but I know exactly what I'm eating

1308
01:05:31,840 --> 01:05:33,160
Speaker 3: and I know exactly what it's going to do to

1309
01:05:33,200 --> 01:05:33,880
Speaker 3: my Tom Tom.

1310
01:05:34,760 --> 01:05:37,800
Speaker 2: And that's that's fine, and I'll just I'll finish with this.

1311
01:05:38,880 --> 01:05:43,000
Speaker 2: The people who appreciate fast food, deep cuts and available

1312
01:05:43,040 --> 01:05:48,720
Speaker 2: menu items, no Arby's while up and down with their

1313
01:05:49,400 --> 01:05:51,560
Speaker 2: their sandwiches, right, some are very strong, some are not

1314
01:05:51,560 --> 01:05:53,960
Speaker 2: as strong. And I have not been to Arby's in

1315
01:05:54,040 --> 01:05:55,600
Speaker 2: quite some time, so I have no idea if this

1316
01:05:55,640 --> 01:05:58,840
Speaker 2: is still true. But people who appreciate a good fast

1317
01:05:58,840 --> 01:06:03,680
Speaker 2: food milkshake know that Arby's has like a jamocha flavor,

1318
01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:07,200
Speaker 2: like a coffeeish flavor in there that's not readily available

1319
01:06:07,240 --> 01:06:09,040
Speaker 2: at their competitors. I want to say Jack in the

1320
01:06:09,040 --> 01:06:12,960
Speaker 2: Box might as well. That is when when the old

1321
01:06:12,960 --> 01:06:16,360
Speaker 2: Tom tum could handle dairy in a more positive way.

1322
01:06:16,800 --> 01:06:19,840
Speaker 2: Uh ooh does Arbies bring it with that? It's very good.

1323
01:06:20,760 --> 01:06:23,240
Speaker 3: Again, right in Solid Verbal Gmail dot com, check us

1324
01:06:23,240 --> 01:06:26,000
Speaker 3: out on Patreon. Don't forget to tell folks about the

1325
01:06:26,080 --> 01:06:30,600
Speaker 3: Solid Verbal. We will be back later this week. You

1326
01:06:30,640 --> 01:06:32,280
Speaker 3: know what we've been doing each month, we've been talking

1327
01:06:32,280 --> 01:06:36,800
Speaker 3: about teams that correspond to the date. Four and eight

1328
01:06:36,800 --> 01:06:40,360
Speaker 3: teams coming at you on Thursday. Yeah, buddy, as we've

1329
01:06:40,360 --> 01:06:43,040
Speaker 3: got April the eighth getting a little bit bigger in

1330
01:06:43,080 --> 01:06:44,960
Speaker 3: the window. But that guy over there, my good friend

1331
01:06:45,000 --> 01:06:47,880
Speaker 3: Dan Rubinstein, for myself, Tie Hildebrand, for our guest of honor,

1332
01:06:47,920 --> 01:06:50,720
Speaker 3: Bill Connelly from ESPN, Thank you so very much for

1333
01:06:50,760 --> 01:06:53,440
Speaker 3: downloading and listening and supporting the show. We'll be back

1334
01:06:53,440 --> 01:06:55,800
Speaker 3: in a few days and meantimes day song Peace,