1 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:06,640 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On 2 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: the same people who gave five low box and approval 3 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: gave extremely high marks to the Heart Infrastructure Bill. Democrats 4 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: didn't show up. They were not motivated, they're not excited 5 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Sound On Politics, Policy and perspective from DC's 6 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 1: top name, the National Transit. The Democrat Party definitely woke 7 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 1: a lot of people up that they needed to get 8 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: out in both the Biden administration seems to hate the 9 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: owned gas industry and which one of the reasons gas 10 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: prices are so high. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew 11 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio live from the Mothership in New York today. 12 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 1: Welcome to the fastest hour in politics. Thank you for 13 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: spending part of your day with us on Bloomberg Radio. 14 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: President Biden reminds us the first Veterans Day in two 15 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 1: decades without American troops fighting a war overseas. Will discuss 16 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: the significance of that and why Congress is slow walking 17 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: military funding for next year as well, with Congressman Jake Aukin, 18 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: class Democrat from Massachusetts, a combat veteran marine who led 19 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 1: infantry in Afghanistan. He'll be with us in a moment 20 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: the White House says it has the solution to inflation, 21 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: and it's the same thing Republicans say is causing inflation. 22 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 1: We're gonna get into the impact of infrastructure and social 23 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 1: spending the Biden agenda with Mark Zandi, chief economist at 24 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: Moody's Analytics. A bit later this hour. Our panel today, 25 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:31,199 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributor Jennie Chanzano, along with Jape and Faye, 26 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: Republican strategist, founder of Lighthouse Public Affairs, both here for 27 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: the hour, and Happy Veterans Day to all who served 28 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 1: our country. Yes, as we open with the sounds of 29 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 1: the New York City Veterans Day Parade marching up Fifth 30 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: Avenue of Beautiful Sight today, all while the National Defense 31 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: Authorization Acts goes nowhere fast on Capitol Hill, generating a 32 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 1: lot of questions about when it might become law, not 33 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: to mention a pile of bills written to help our veterans. 34 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: And we're joined by one to start the program today. 35 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,919 Speaker 1: Congressman Jake Aukin, class Democrat from Massachusetts, as I mentioned, 36 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:18,360 Speaker 1: fought as a marine in Afghanistan, where he commanded an 37 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:22,359 Speaker 1: infantry unit in Helman Province. We last spoke with him 38 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: during the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and he's back with us today. Congressman, 39 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:28,359 Speaker 1: I wish I had the Marine Corps hymn for you there. 40 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: I just realized what I did wrong. But thank you 41 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:32,679 Speaker 1: for being with us. A Happy Veterans Day to you, 42 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:36,399 Speaker 1: number five, Dallas and from the halls of Monte Zoom. 43 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 1: And don't worry, I'll play it myself if it's you will. 44 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 1: President Biden today spoke at Arlington National Cemetery to mark 45 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 1: the occasion. For two decades, the lives of our service 46 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 1: members and their families and veterans have been shaped by 47 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Since nine eleven, hundreds 48 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:58,919 Speaker 1: of thousands of Americans have served, so many are still 49 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 1: serving today in harms, worry, and we cannot forget them. Indeed, 50 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 1: the first Veteran's Day without a war underway in two decades. 51 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: But Congressman, to the President's point, there are still many 52 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: Americans in uniform in dangerous places. I wonder if at 53 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 1: this point, after weeks have gone by, do you think 54 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 1: there should still be a small troop presence in Afghanistan. 55 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: I think the President made the right decision about Afghanistan. 56 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 1: There was no glory in his decision, but there was integrity. 57 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: We're gonna be judged on Afghanistan really by three metrics 58 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 1: in the coming decade. The first is is going to 59 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: be whether we can maintain basic humanitarian protections for the 60 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: Afghan people. This winter is going to be a winter 61 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 1: of privation and starvation if we cannot get humanitarian aid 62 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 1: to the Afghan people. Number two, whether we can prevent 63 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 1: Afghanistan from devolving into a narco terror state. Their meth trade, fuels, 64 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: terrorist training camps. We have to prevent that from happening. 65 00:03:56,960 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 1: Number Three, we must elbow out China from trying to 66 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 1: gain hegemony over rare earth mineral mining in Afghanistan, and copper, 67 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 1: UH and UH and lithium are in great supply their 68 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: China wants control over those supplies as part of its 69 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 1: stranglehold on the global supply chain of the critical elements 70 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: and I T and energy. Those are the three missions. 71 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 1: We can pursue those three missions without a military footprint. 72 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,279 Speaker 1: There that was keeping us hamstrong in our orientation to 73 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:31,479 Speaker 1: the Indo Pacific, and that was not accomplishing the mission. 74 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 1: It was ugly We talked about it in the midst 75 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 1: of that withdrawal. Congressman, do you think the worst is 76 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 1: over in terms of the terror threat in Afghanistan? That 77 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 1: is one of the three key imperatives we have going 78 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:49,160 Speaker 1: forward is to prevent the worst from happening. The Taliban 79 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: and potentially isis K appear to be looking at using 80 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: meth and the meth trade, along along with the opium trade, 81 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: to fund part of their government and potentially the fund 82 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:01,279 Speaker 1: terrorist training camps that can not be allowed to happen. 83 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 1: No terrorists with the will and capability to strike the 84 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 1: U S Homeland can never be allowed to operate camps 85 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 1: in Central Asia, and we maintain both unmanned aerial systems 86 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: as well as special operations capabilities to prevent that from happening. 87 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 1: But perhaps even more urgently right now, we need to 88 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 1: get humanitarian aid to the Afghan people. They are facing 89 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 1: privation this winter time. And although it is appropriate to 90 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 1: use economic aid in our financial leverage over the Taliban 91 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 1: to get concessions from them, we cannot use the Afghan 92 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: people as a as a source of leverage because their 93 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 1: suffering must be ameliorated. I want to ask you about 94 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 1: a couple of other related issues here. Congressman, you are 95 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 1: one of, as I understand, seventy six veterans serving in 96 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: Congress that according to the House Committee on Veterans Affairs. 97 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:49,599 Speaker 1: And I will tell you as surprised how high that 98 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,039 Speaker 1: number was. I didn't expect to see seventy six. And 99 00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 1: I'm I'm guessing that's not seventy six combat veterans. But 100 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: that's a different conversation. There are more than forty at 101 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 1: my count forty pills pending in the US Congress in 102 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:07,320 Speaker 1: the House Veterans Affairs Committee to help veterans everything from 103 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 1: mental health UH to assistance on any number of of 104 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:17,720 Speaker 1: of issues, housing, nursing homes, grants, and so forth. Some 105 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:21,039 Speaker 1: of these go back I'm scrolling right now through this list, Congressmen. 106 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 1: Some of them go back to the very beginning of 107 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 1: this year. What is taking so long? I just held 108 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 1: the town hall in my district with veterans and heard 109 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: from them that as we UH, as we address their needs, 110 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:38,839 Speaker 1: we need to be sure that we're treating the whole veteran, 111 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: not just the immediate case work issue, not just the 112 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 1: immediate physical health care issue, but mental health needs, housing needs. 113 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 1: When you are able to make contact with a veteran 114 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 1: who is at needing government assistants use that as an 115 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:54,359 Speaker 1: opportunity to find what other services they may need and 116 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: to maybe pull them out of social isolation that they 117 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: that they might be experiencing. I'm also have co sponsored 118 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: legislation that would address exposure by veterans to toxins in 119 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: the air from burn pits, which I think is going 120 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: to be an important update. There is a lot of 121 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: legislation in Congress right now that has been bottled up. Uh, 122 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 1: we have a backlog after four years under the Trump 123 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: administration that was totally uninterested in governing, least of all 124 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: for veterans, and we need to address a whole portfolio 125 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: of urgent needs for the US economy and for the 126 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 1: US people. If there are more than seventies six veterans 127 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 1: in the House, do you think these would be laws 128 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: by now? I think that the low percentage of veterans 129 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 1: in Congress, and by my understanding, it's the lowest since 130 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 1: World War Two, although I'll fact check myself on that, UM, 131 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 1: I think that that has negative impacts across the board. 132 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 1: It is easier to work with fellow veterans. On the 133 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 1: other side of the aisle. There's a muscle memory there 134 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 1: for putting aside personal ambition, and you're not even a 135 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 1: common purpose. Absolutely. I want to ask you about the 136 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 1: National Defense Authorization Act, and I'm wondering where your head 137 00:07:57,840 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: is on this. This is the annual effort, of course, 138 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 1: to fund our military, to pay our troops, to buy 139 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: the hardware that is needed to protect them and war 140 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 1: fighting tools that they need to bring the war to 141 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 1: the enemy. It's been sitting around for some time now, 142 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 1: and there is concerned that it will be used as 143 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: leverage to get a lot of other things done. Congressman, 144 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 1: why hasn't this moved through the Senate yet? And would 145 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 1: you like to see this get a vote next week? 146 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 1: The n d a A is overly uh is spending 147 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 1: too much on the Department of Defense as money. In 148 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: your intro, I'm a marine veteran. Myself joined the Marine 149 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 1: Corps was the second best decision I ever made after 150 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 1: asking my wife to marry me. I love the US military. 151 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:44,719 Speaker 1: It's one of the great institutions. But the Pentagon is 152 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: also the biggest bureaucracy in the world. And I've never 153 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 1: seen a bureaucracy government or business that can't do ten 154 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: percent more with ten percent less. We had his past 155 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 1: time to give the Pentagon a ten percent cut and 156 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 1: asked them to focus in on the highest impact programs, policies, procedures, 157 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 1: and troop levels to accomplish a mission in the Indo Pacific. 158 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 1: Now that we're winding down to forever wars in Central 159 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 1: Asia and in the Middle East, do you have any 160 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 1: reason to believe that the Senate will pick this up 161 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:14,319 Speaker 1: as some are saying next week? In general, the n 162 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:16,560 Speaker 1: d a A has been a bipartisan initiative and in 163 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 1: Congress's past, and I do think that that's going to 164 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 1: remain here now. Like I said, I'm not in support 165 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 1: of this current spending level for the Pentagon. I think 166 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 1: we should be giving them a haircut. But I the 167 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 1: track record is that that Congress does tend to come 168 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:30,840 Speaker 1: together to pass the nd a A. Yes, I believe 169 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: Republicans on the committee got another twenty billion if if 170 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: I remember correctly, into that bill, you're calling for uh 171 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 1: a deeper cut than that. What would you give up 172 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:45,680 Speaker 1: in the process. Well, I think that the Congress's role 173 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 1: is to set high level strategy and to set high 174 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: level spending limits, and then to allow the experts at 175 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 1: the Pentagon to decide how they want to allocate resources 176 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 1: within there. I'll say that my overarching direction to the 177 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 1: Pentagon would be, now that we are leaving to land 178 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 1: wars in Asia, an orienting towards the indoor Pacific probably 179 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,199 Speaker 1: makes sense to plus up the Navy, Air Force, Marine 180 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 1: Corps and to look real hard at active duty troop 181 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 1: levels for the Army and whether we need half a 182 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 1: million ACTI duty troops. How about that? So it's troops 183 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 1: you're looking at more than hardware. For instance, should we 184 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 1: buy as many F thirty five as we have ordered? Both? Yeah, 185 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 1: the F thirty five has a one point seven trillion 186 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 1: dollar total lifetime cost and it has not proven itself 187 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 1: yet worthy of that price tag. I want to say 188 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 1: that again, one point seven trillion dollar lifetime asset cost 189 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: there for the F thirty five. I'm sure it's a 190 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 1: great airplane. I have yet to meet a one point 191 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 1: seven trillion dollar piece of gear that's worth that cost. Though. Well, 192 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: it's interesting because we hear a lot about competition with China, 193 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 1: and some folks think we're on the version of another 194 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:49,959 Speaker 1: arms race. Do you see that being the case, are 195 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:52,199 Speaker 1: we on the threshold of a cold war with China 196 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 1: that would that would demand more spending. From that view, Congressman, 197 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 1: I think a top level designation of a new cold war, 198 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 1: I think is a very unhelpful framework with China. We're 199 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 1: competing with China in a number of different domains diplomatic 200 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 1: in Southeast Asia, for example, economic, uh military hardware, We're 201 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 1: competing with them. Ideologically, we're competing with them in terms 202 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 1: of epidemiology with Sino vax versus the US vaccines, and 203 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:23,440 Speaker 1: how we invest in infrastructure and in Africa and uh 204 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 1: in in the Near abroad, for for the for Chinese. 205 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: So to just to call it a cold war, I 206 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 1: think doesn't really capture what we're talking about in terms 207 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: of the direct military threat of China. Though the most 208 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 1: explosive part in the world is the Taiwan Straight and 209 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 1: we need to evaluate, and we need the U. S. Navy, 210 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 1: Air Force, Army and Marine Corps to evaluate, what are 211 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 1: the capabilities from their war games that are surfacing as 212 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 1: being necessary to prevent a a standoff in the Taiwan 213 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 1: Straight from deteriorating into a hot war, and what what 214 00:11:57,840 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: kind of training do we need to provide the time 215 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 1: when these arm me to uh to improve their chances. 216 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:07,679 Speaker 1: Congressman Jake Aukin, class Democrat from Massachusetts, Happy Veterans Day 217 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 1: and thank you for your service. You're listening to Bloomberg 218 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 1: You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio as 219 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: we assemble the panel on this Veteran's Day. Welcome to 220 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 1: sound on on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Joe Matthew as we 221 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 1: join you live from New York at the World Headquarters, 222 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: and great to see you along with the panel. Bloomberg 223 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:33,080 Speaker 1: Politics contributor Jeanie Schanzano is with us from Washington, along 224 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 1: with Chape and Fay, Republican strategist and founder of Lighthouse 225 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 1: Public Affairs. It's great to have you both with us. Chap, 226 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 1: and I'm going to start with you because I'm lucky 227 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 1: to have you in studio here. The conversation about military spending, 228 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 1: the National Defense Authorization Act has been sitting around for 229 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 1: weeks at this point, months actually, I guess a couple 230 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:54,440 Speaker 1: of months, and there's been a thought that it would 231 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 1: be used for leverage as we walk up on the 232 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 1: end of the year. You know, the holiday deadline is 233 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: what actually makes things happen. At the end of the 234 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 1: calendar year here and we're creeping up on Thanksgiving, there's 235 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 1: a thought it might get a vote next week. But 236 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 1: also there's a thought that that's Senator Chuck Schumer, the 237 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: majority leader, could attach a bunch of things to it, 238 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 1: as he dares Republicans like you to vote no. Is 239 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 1: that how you see this playing out? You know? I 240 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 1: think so, I think, uh, you know, is there ever 241 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 1: a bill where things aren't attached to it? You know? Um? So, 242 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 1: I do think there will be some some unrelated stuff 243 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 1: in there. And you know, it's a wait for the 244 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:31,199 Speaker 1: Democrats to get wins. I mean they really you know, 245 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,320 Speaker 1: the infrastructure bill just passed, but that's really the only 246 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 1: win the National Democrats have had for has to give 247 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 1: it an amount of time, and they're looking for wins. 248 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 1: So if if the sentiment Jary leader can attach some 249 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 1: things and force some uncomfortable votes for his colleagues, I 250 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:44,839 Speaker 1: see that happy smart of him. It's probably what happened. 251 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 1: That's politics, Genie. We just talked with Congressman Akin Class 252 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 1: and this is a man who carried a machine gun 253 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:55,200 Speaker 1: in Hellman Province leading other young Americans into harm's way 254 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 1: and says that the defense budget in this n d 255 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 1: a A should be caught. Is he right? Yeah? And 256 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 1: I'm jealous that you two are both in New York 257 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:07,679 Speaker 1: and I am missing you. Um. You know, I thought 258 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:10,679 Speaker 1: that was a fascinating interview and to hear from as 259 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: you mentioned, um, one of the many veterans in Congress 260 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 1: saying that he thought that that the National Defense Authorization 261 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 1: should be cut, and he even talked about some ways 262 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: in which he might consider doing that, including the F 263 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 1: thirty five. I thought that was fascinating. Um. You know, 264 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 1: I do think there's an argument that that Democrats have 265 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 1: been making for some time that as he said that 266 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 1: it could be a haircut to a certain extent. He mentioned, 267 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 1: for instance, army troops as a possibility. As we think 268 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 1: and we turned towards the Indo Pacific, do we need 269 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: to rethink how we are spending? And so I do 270 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 1: think that is an important conversation to have. I also 271 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: think it's important to remember that President Trump vetoed the 272 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 1: n d a A in part over section two thirty. 273 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 1: So you know, there's a lot of back and forth 274 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 1: on this, and I do think it's something that Democrats 275 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 1: should push through this time around. I'll tell you Chape 276 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 1: and a lot of people say, we're right on the 277 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 1: verge of something major with China here and cutting back 278 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 1: our military. Now, whether you need all of these fighter 279 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: jets or all of these uniformed troops, whether you need them, 280 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 1: the point is showing force. It's a projection of American power. 281 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: Where are you on that when we're we're talking about 282 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 1: spending trillions on a social agenda and worried about inflation 283 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 1: right now? Well, I think you're exactly right about that. 284 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 1: I mean, there's no place in the world that is 285 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 1: safer now than there was than it was a year ago. 286 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 1: Um And while I do agree that, especially with Pentagon budget, 287 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 1: there's always ways to cut, right, I mean you always 288 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: read about the ten dollar hammers and things of six problems, 289 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 1: so there are always ways to cut. But when you 290 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: get into troops and equipment, I mean, we just left 291 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:51,160 Speaker 1: billions behind in Afghanistan, billions of dollars worth of equipment, 292 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 1: and you know China is rearing its head, North Korea's 293 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: testing missiles. I mean, there are there could be any 294 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 1: number of, um, you know, hot zones across the world, 295 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 1: and I just don't think now is the time to 296 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: do that. And that you know, Joe Biden and the 297 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 1: Democrats have to decide do they want to ram down 298 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 1: every single one of their wish lists and you know, 299 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 1: climate justice and all these things that are in these bills, 300 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 1: or they want to do the things that um, you 301 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 1: know need to be done to address inflation and also 302 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 1: fund the military. I would courage everybody, Genie, to take 303 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 1: a look at as I mentioned, the House Veterans Affairs 304 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: Committee website, take a look at the number of bills 305 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 1: that have been sitting on the shelf waiting for action 306 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 1: here uh in in the committee. And this goes all 307 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 1: the way back to as I scroll down again back 308 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: to the beginning of February, everything from internet access to 309 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 1: nursing home access, to housing to healthcare. Genie, how can 310 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 1: this manute almost over forty of these bills are sitting 311 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 1: on the shelf. Does it say that we need more 312 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 1: veterans in Congress? How do you train lawmakers attention on this? 313 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 1: And that isn't keeping with what we see with most legislation, 314 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: whether it's about veterans or not. One of the things 315 00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: I always have students do is look at the likelihood 316 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 1: of pass of a number of bills in Congress, and 317 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 1: all of them are usually about you know, one to 318 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 1: two per cent, so this is not unusual. You know, 319 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:09,440 Speaker 1: it brings you back to schoolhouse rock. These bills sit 320 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 1: on the hill without passage. I would just want to 321 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,119 Speaker 1: go back for one minute and say about US and 322 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 1: China military spending. We spend six hundred and forty nine billion, 323 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 1: number one in the world versus China, who is second 324 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: at two hundred sixty one billion. So you know, we 325 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 1: can trim and we can reinvest some of that money 326 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 1: in things like China is doing in helping to build 327 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 1: a you know, build back better international if you will, 328 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 1: to compete with the Silken Road initiatives. So you know, 329 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 1: we have other ways in which we have to invest 330 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 1: to compete with China, not just on share military spending 331 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 1: the way we normally define it. We're going to get 332 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:52,199 Speaker 1: into the big debate about taxing and spending and inflation 333 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 1: coming up with Mark Zany and I'll pull you two 334 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: into this as well. But before we get that far, 335 00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,880 Speaker 1: the congressman mentioned and I don't think it was an accident, 336 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 1: shape and one point seven trillion dollars the lifespan cost 337 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: of the F thirty five something else costs one point 338 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,880 Speaker 1: seven trillion dollars that is floating around Washington right now, 339 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 1: and that's the build back Better plan that some think 340 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 1: we'll get a vote next week. Is this just a 341 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: question of priorities here? Or are we going to spend 342 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 1: all of this money? It's one point seven trillion times two. 343 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 1: It's a big argument between Democrats and Republicans right now. 344 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 1: Where should our shopping lists be? Well, it should be 345 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 1: a question of priorities, and that's what Congress should be debating. 346 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 1: But we live in an era where it's extreme polarization 347 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,680 Speaker 1: on both sides and it's much more ideological fights. So 348 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 1: there aren't going to be too many compromises in the spending. 349 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: But you don't favor a cut in Pentagon spending, right 350 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 1: I would favor a cut and spend and Pentagon spending 351 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 1: if it was you know, just waste, fraud, and abuse. 352 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: I think would would be a decent amount of money 353 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 1: to be taken on the budget. Broadcasting live from our 354 00:18:54,359 --> 00:19:01,119 Speaker 1: nation's capital, Bloomberg to New York, Bloomberg to Austin, Bloomberg 355 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,640 Speaker 1: one O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine six 356 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 1: to the country, serious XM Channel one nine and around 357 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:12,920 Speaker 1: the globe, the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. 358 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew. Thanks for 359 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 1: spending part of your day with us on Bloomberg Sound On, 360 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 1: as we've joined you live from world headquarters in New York. Today, 361 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 1: the White House quotes him frequently when arguing that the 362 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 1: Biden economic agenda is not causing inflation, won't cause more inflation. 363 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 1: I'm referring to Mark Zandy, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics. 364 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 1: He made news over the summer. You remember this is 365 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: take His research showed inflation was not tied to infrastructure 366 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:48,400 Speaker 1: or social spending. And well, if you here for listening 367 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 1: to this program, you know a lot of people disagree 368 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 1: with that. Most Republicans who have ever been on this 369 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: program see it differently. In lately, markets do too. It's 370 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,160 Speaker 1: actually after the CPI came out yesterday's showing inflation running 371 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:05,239 Speaker 1: much hotter than expected, and a lot of folks are 372 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 1: worried about where it's going, with supply chain concerns and 373 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 1: with trillions more spending in the pipeline and tax increases 374 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:19,359 Speaker 1: to pay for it. So we wanted to get back 375 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 1: in touch with Mark to see where his head is now. 376 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,120 Speaker 1: Mark Sandy, welcome back to Bloomberg Radio. Thank you, Joe. 377 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:27,960 Speaker 1: It's going to be with you always a pleasure. You 378 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 1: turn a lot of heads last July when we talked 379 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: about your research at that point arguing that the Biden 380 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 1: economic agenda infrastructure and social spending would boost the economy 381 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 1: without causing runaway inflation. Now that we're talking about inflation 382 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day here in the markets starting 383 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:46,200 Speaker 1: to get nervous. Do you feel the same way now? 384 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 1: I do? Yeah, I don't. I don't think the inflation 385 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,920 Speaker 1: were observing now is to do with Bill back better 386 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: Genus certainly, or even the American Rescue Plan, which was 387 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,680 Speaker 1: the fiscal stimulus plan passed back in March. This has 388 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 1: everything to do with the pandemic, particularly the delta variant, 389 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:04,679 Speaker 1: which really hit our our economy hard, but hit the 390 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 1: rest of the world even harder, particularly Asia and even 391 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 1: more specifically Southeast Asia where a lot of supply chains begin, 392 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 1: and those supply chains has got completely scrambled and caused 393 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: shortages and higher inflation. And but also the delts also 394 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 1: did a lot of damage to our job market. You know, 395 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,679 Speaker 1: a lot of people got sick, charroustick people, you know, 396 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: fearful of getting sick, so that uh, you know, cause 397 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,639 Speaker 1: wages to rise and prices to rise more quickly. So 398 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:32,159 Speaker 1: I I talk all this up to the pandemic, the 399 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,360 Speaker 1: delta wave, and has nothing to do with the fiscal policy. 400 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 1: You did warn back in the spring that inflation was 401 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,239 Speaker 1: at our door staff here, and it sure is. Did 402 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: you think it would be this hot by now? No, 403 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:48,480 Speaker 1: I was surprised by uh the yet the October consumer 404 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 1: price report that came out on on Wednesday, it was 405 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,199 Speaker 1: I knew it was gonna be ugly, Uh, but it 406 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 1: was hard to hook at Joe, it was, yeah, and 407 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 1: it was days the price in cruising baby. So no, 408 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 1: I I was surprised by that. But I talked that 409 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 1: up to the vagaries of data. You know, I look 410 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 1: at a lot of data, and uh, you know, it's 411 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,720 Speaker 1: always a bit of a surprise because uh, you know, 412 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 1: there's a lot of things going on and and the 413 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 1: vagaries of the data, uh you know, you know, cause 414 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,439 Speaker 1: these kinds of surprises, but the fundamentally what's going on 415 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 1: my view of what the fundamentally going on here is 416 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,920 Speaker 1: not changed as a results of that. We talked to 417 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 1: lawmakers every day on this program, and frequently Republicans beat 418 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,920 Speaker 1: the inflation drum and point the finger at the Biden 419 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:38,359 Speaker 1: administration making the case that number one, the amount of 420 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:43,440 Speaker 1: spending that's happening already under President Biden's watches, adding to inflation, 421 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 1: and going further to pass this reconciliation, build the build 422 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,919 Speaker 1: back better plan, whether it's you know, one point seven, 423 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 1: five or three trillion dollars, will only make it worse. 424 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:57,360 Speaker 1: Are they wrong? Yeah? I don't get that. Our argument. 425 00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,719 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, the American rescue and I mean 426 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 1: the kind of logic is okay, I provide all this 427 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:07,639 Speaker 1: fistal support that means more government spending, gimulus checks on 428 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 1: unemployment insurance that supports demand and produces up demand, and 429 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 1: then therefore that results in more inflation. But the thing 430 00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:19,400 Speaker 1: is demand weaken. You know, the delta envirus variant hit 431 00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:22,960 Speaker 1: in the third quarter, you know, July, August and September 432 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:26,200 Speaker 1: when it was really raging. That not only caused inflation rise, 433 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 1: but nails demand. Uh, you know the economy. Remember g 434 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 1: d P Joe that for the third quarter that barely grow, 435 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 1: A lot of that was because of weak consumer spending. 436 00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 1: So the logic does just doesn't hold. So no, I 437 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:40,680 Speaker 1: I don't think you can connect the dots between this 438 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:43,640 Speaker 1: inflation and the American rescue plan. I I don't think 439 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,119 Speaker 1: that's what's going on. And the build back Better agenda. 440 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 1: We can talk about that at length in terms of 441 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,120 Speaker 1: this inflation or impact, but at bottom line, I don't 442 00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:53,040 Speaker 1: see that adding appreciable inflation. So let's spend the question 443 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,639 Speaker 1: around and ask you kind of the opposite way. President Biden, 444 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 1: not just yesterday everyone seemed to notice him at the 445 00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,160 Speaker 1: Port of Baltimore kind of opening with remarks about inflation, 446 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,640 Speaker 1: but even months ago said the higher prices you're paying 447 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 1: for everything from food to gas will be helped by 448 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 1: my economic agenda. Do you see it happening? The opposite 449 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:17,160 Speaker 1: is this the cure is more spending the cure for inflation? Well, 450 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:21,440 Speaker 1: I think lifting long term economic growth would ease inflation, 451 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,479 Speaker 1: all fling equal, and I think that's a big part 452 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,160 Speaker 1: of the build back third agenda. Is that a capacity argument? Though? 453 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:27,679 Speaker 1: What is it? If you could explain to us, and 454 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:29,640 Speaker 1: we have some pretty smart people smarter than I listening 455 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 1: to this right now, When it comes to the economy, 456 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 1: how would that work well? Tank public infrastructure, I mean 457 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,360 Speaker 1: I I dusted in roads, bridges, broadband that makes us 458 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: more productive and listen productivity growth list, long term economic 459 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,199 Speaker 1: growth and all else being equal. That eases inflation. The 460 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 1: social programs are designed in part to help support uh 461 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,720 Speaker 1: lital force participation. You know, if I can help low 462 00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:57,199 Speaker 1: income households with their childcare and their elder care UH 463 00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 1: and get them into the workforce, that lists the size 464 00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 1: of the labor force, that eases of inflation right pressures. 465 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 1: And some parts of the Build Back Better agenda are 466 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,639 Speaker 1: design specifically to address the cost of wing and take housing. 467 00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 1: I mean, there's a big part of the Penant plan 468 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,359 Speaker 1: is to increase the supply affordable rental housing. And we 469 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,840 Speaker 1: all know that's a big problem, severe shortages resulting in 470 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 1: very strong read increases. We need more rental units for 471 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,440 Speaker 1: people of lower and middle incomes and that that does better. 472 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,119 Speaker 1: So I've go on but that those are just examples 473 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:29,160 Speaker 1: of you know what I mean, if this puts many 474 00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 1: more people back to work, which is the promise, right, 475 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,840 Speaker 1: we're gonna have thousands, potentially thousands of construction jobs opening here. 476 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 1: Does that not add to wage inflation? Well, if you 477 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:40,639 Speaker 1: don't have a lot of slack in the labor market. 478 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 1: But I would argue we got a lot of you know, slack. 479 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: It would mean the uneplomb rates for six we were 480 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:50,720 Speaker 1: in the threes back in nineteen. And more importantly than that, 481 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 1: we've got billions of people who stepped out of the 482 00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:55,639 Speaker 1: work first during the pandemic, who haven't come back in 483 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 1: because they're sick, they're you know, taking care of sex people, 484 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,400 Speaker 1: they're fearful of getting its or I actually, interestingly enough, Joe, 485 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,200 Speaker 1: the lowest, the biggest impact of participation has been among 486 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,440 Speaker 1: parents with the young kids, because they're fearful their kids 487 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,280 Speaker 1: are gonna get sick and they take a job. So 488 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,359 Speaker 1: this comes back to COVID again. COVID lifts more people 489 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:18,120 Speaker 1: go back to work, wage pressure eases. Is that your view? Absolutely, 490 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,720 Speaker 1: that's the key here. So you know, uh, the bottom line, 491 00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:24,920 Speaker 1: this economy is still tethered to that pandemic. You gotta 492 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 1: get you gotta get on the other side of this 493 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,880 Speaker 1: pandemic to get back to you know, something, to get 494 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 1: inflation down, get clothes back and get back to something 495 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 1: we feel comfortable about in our economy. Well, lastly, then 496 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 1: talk to us about what is transitory here. If you're 497 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:38,919 Speaker 1: still in that mindset, where are we going to be 498 00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,080 Speaker 1: you know, say the middle of twenty two when when 499 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,960 Speaker 1: we're in the throes of the mid term campaigns. Well, 500 00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:46,560 Speaker 1: I think we're seeing the worst of the inflation of 501 00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:50,359 Speaker 1: pressures right now. By buy to my diagnosis what's going on, 502 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 1: and you know, delta fades, the inflationary pressures fade, so 503 00:26:55,200 --> 00:27:00,240 Speaker 1: you know inflation CPI inflation saying is six by mid 504 00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,600 Speaker 1: next year, I'd say, you know, probably half that down 505 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 1: to three and then by you know, spring of summer 506 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 1: three we're back to target, which would be on the 507 00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 1: consumer price index not you know, something around two in 508 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 1: a quarter to two an alp percent, So that would 509 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,479 Speaker 1: be the true rectory. So you know, we'll know if 510 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,359 Speaker 1: I write it wrong pretty soon here if I go 511 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:25,479 Speaker 1: does it right or wrong? You know, I don't think 512 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,520 Speaker 1: inflation comes down rapidly. I'm ating next month, the next quarter. 513 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:30,720 Speaker 1: But I do think, you know, if I'm right, we 514 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 1: should start to signs that the inflationent pressure. You're just 515 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,200 Speaker 1: starting to debate. It is interesting. Mark, I guess somebody's 516 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:38,000 Speaker 1: gonna have to be wrong here in Washington. But we'd 517 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:39,680 Speaker 1: like to stay in touch with you through this process 518 00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,920 Speaker 1: because you're actually researching this as opposed to simply talking 519 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 1: about it. And I appreciate your insights today. Mark Zandi, 520 00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,520 Speaker 1: Chief economist Moody's Analytics. Thanks as always for being with 521 00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 1: us on Bloomberg anytime, Joe, take care you're listening to Bloomberg. 522 00:27:54,000 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 1: You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. So Marks, 523 00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 1: Andy is sticking by his guns. Yes, inflation is hot, 524 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:10,680 Speaker 1: but transitory and Democrats tax and spending plans, He says, well, 525 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:14,800 Speaker 1: not make it worse, Mark, pointing to the COVID recovery 526 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,520 Speaker 1: and supply chains clogged supply chains for causing the worst 527 00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 1: of it. So let's talk this out of the panel. 528 00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,800 Speaker 1: Blueberry Politics contributor Jeanie Schanzano is with us for the 529 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,480 Speaker 1: hour long with Chape and Fay, Republican strategist, founder of 530 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:30,200 Speaker 1: Lighthouse Public Affairs, who also incidentally served as press secretary 531 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,919 Speaker 1: for former Governor George Pataki. And it's great to have 532 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 1: you both back here with us. Chape and I'm going 533 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 1: to start with you potentially, well, I'm assuming on the 534 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 1: other side of this argument you just heard from Marks Andy, 535 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 1: a smart guy has done the research. A lot of 536 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:45,280 Speaker 1: people disagree with him on this. Does the Biden spending 537 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:50,920 Speaker 1: agenda social spending along with the infrastructure plan make inflation worse? 538 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,280 Speaker 1: Is that how we got here? I think so. I mean, 539 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,120 Speaker 1: if you even look at what UM the White House 540 00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,720 Speaker 1: forecasting firms and you know, surrogates are saying, they're saying 541 00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 1: that that the agenda will lower and address costs and inflation, 542 00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:07,480 Speaker 1: but on a long timeline, maybe a year or longer UM, 543 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,240 Speaker 1: and it may make it worse in the interim. And 544 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,360 Speaker 1: I don't think that that, you know, after the mid 545 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 1: terms last I'm sorry, the election last week and heading 546 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 1: into a you know, highly contentious midterm season, I don't 547 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,680 Speaker 1: think the buying White House can afford to wait that long, 548 00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:20,760 Speaker 1: even if true. I mean, of course, there are those 549 00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 1: saying that this is only going to make it worse. 550 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 1: I'm one of those. I mean, if you look at 551 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 1: just the spending UM parts of these bills, they a 552 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:29,600 Speaker 1: lot of them have nothing to do with economics. A 553 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:31,680 Speaker 1: lot of them have to do with the climate change 554 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,960 Speaker 1: and climate justice, environmental justice, and all these different social 555 00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,400 Speaker 1: engineering that the Democrats have been trying to pass for 556 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,000 Speaker 1: a long time. They're going to cram it into these 557 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: bills and call it, you know, an economic package. It's 558 00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:46,080 Speaker 1: not really that, you know, um So, I do think 559 00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:48,400 Speaker 1: that it will make inflation and costs worse in the 560 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 1: short term for gd President Biden just yesterday says, we 561 00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 1: know you're paying a lot more food, gas, everything. We 562 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,400 Speaker 1: know it's costing you a lot. If you want lower prices, 563 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:02,760 Speaker 1: then pass my economic genda. Is that disingenuous to refer 564 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:07,320 Speaker 1: to these plans as a cure? I don't think it's disingenuous, 565 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,640 Speaker 1: But I do think there's a big division or divide 566 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,360 Speaker 1: between the economics of this and the politics of this. 567 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:15,680 Speaker 1: So since I'm not an economist, I will leave that 568 00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:17,840 Speaker 1: to Mark Xany have a ton of respect for him. 569 00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 1: I was taking notes as I always do. Joe Matthew. 570 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:23,720 Speaker 1: He said inflation when you're interviewing, He said the cp 571 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,040 Speaker 1: I we will be down to three percent maybe mid 572 00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 1: next year, and two point to five two point five 573 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,680 Speaker 1: by spring three. The problem is for Joe Biden, whether 574 00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,280 Speaker 1: that's right or wrong, politically, it's too late for him. 575 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,400 Speaker 1: So you guys are saying the same thing. Well, well, 576 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,680 Speaker 1: if you think about it right, you're in November, were 577 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,240 Speaker 1: at this point six point three a year later, it's 578 00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 1: less than half. But it was too late for George Bush. 579 00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:50,800 Speaker 1: The damage has already done politically. And the reality of 580 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,920 Speaker 1: inflation is it hits people as they go in the 581 00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 1: grocery store, as they go to fill up their car. 582 00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 1: It is not like something like the debt ceiling that 583 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,840 Speaker 1: people scratch their head and don't understand this. People understand 584 00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 1: because they're paying it every day. So there's a political price. 585 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,200 Speaker 1: The President knows this. He's not wrong about his bill 586 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,880 Speaker 1: being necessary and may be helping, but it may be 587 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,480 Speaker 1: too late if inflation stays this high. Well maybe that's 588 00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:15,560 Speaker 1: the issue. Maybe it's the messaging here. Okay, so the 589 00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:19,240 Speaker 1: country maybe needs uh this if if you're a Democrat, 590 00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 1: if you believe in the Biden agenda, childcare, expanded medicare, 591 00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 1: paid leave, these are things we need coming out of 592 00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,480 Speaker 1: COVID to try to get the country back on track 593 00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:30,360 Speaker 1: and get people back to workshape. And that's been a 594 00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:31,600 Speaker 1: big part of this too. How the heck do you 595 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 1: get people back in the office, and the President seems 596 00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 1: to think that child care is part of that, not 597 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:39,400 Speaker 1: to mention beating COVID, but why in the same breath 598 00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:42,280 Speaker 1: say that that's going to lower inflation. Well, I think 599 00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:44,480 Speaker 1: he's struggling to find the right message, like you said, 600 00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,720 Speaker 1: and just trying to get his agenda passed. Um. But 601 00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,680 Speaker 1: I will tell you the American people don't care. I mean, 602 00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,560 Speaker 1: they're hearing these debates over whether the child care provision 603 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,520 Speaker 1: is going to make it more expensive or less expensive. 604 00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,080 Speaker 1: Republicans are saying it's gonna make it more expensive. Um. 605 00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,560 Speaker 1: And those debates are things that the American people do 606 00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,080 Speaker 1: not care about. As they're going to gas station, you know, 607 00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:03,240 Speaker 1: filling up their car for a hundred dollars, trying to 608 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,360 Speaker 1: put the American people are going to make making decisions 609 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,840 Speaker 1: about what college they can afford to send their kids 610 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,080 Speaker 1: to or how much food they can buy that week 611 00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 1: at the grocery store, while Congress and the President are 612 00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,280 Speaker 1: going to be debating, you know, these esoteric things like 613 00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 1: you said, that they don't care about, and like Jeannie said, Um, 614 00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,480 Speaker 1: they're going to be feeling, you know, every day as 615 00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:24,480 Speaker 1: they you know, fill up their gas tanks and and 616 00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,960 Speaker 1: and by you know, by anything. Let me lay another 617 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:28,840 Speaker 1: one on you, and that's the debt ceiling. We've talked 618 00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:30,840 Speaker 1: about this a little bit this week, Genie, but probably 619 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,960 Speaker 1: not enough because people aren't paying attention to what's coming 620 00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,160 Speaker 1: right around the corner, because it's going to be back 621 00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,240 Speaker 1: to the future in about another week's time. Right whether 622 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:41,800 Speaker 1: they get to this vote on reconciliation next week or not, 623 00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,600 Speaker 1: we are looking at December three for an expiration of 624 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,600 Speaker 1: government funding and a and a deadline to address the 625 00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,800 Speaker 1: debt ceiling, even as the Bipartisan Policy Center says that, 626 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 1: you know, we may actually get to go a little 627 00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:54,640 Speaker 1: bit further than that before we hit the ceiling. But 628 00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,760 Speaker 1: this is going to interrupt everything again, Jennie. How come 629 00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:01,840 Speaker 1: Democrats are not spending time talking about this right now? 630 00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:05,360 Speaker 1: It's going to slow the role on every other policy 631 00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,480 Speaker 1: proposal we're talking about. Joe, Matthew, you're probably gonna have 632 00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,840 Speaker 1: to kiss away much of your good Thanksgiving and Christmas break. 633 00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,640 Speaker 1: We are looking at three weeks I'm sorry, Joe. We're 634 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,080 Speaker 1: looking at about three weeks that Congress is in from 635 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,760 Speaker 1: now until Christmas. And as you mentioned, they have the 636 00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,240 Speaker 1: debt ceiling. They have the government shutdown, and Democrats of 637 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,840 Speaker 1: course want to pass this build back Better bill. They 638 00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:28,960 Speaker 1: are talking about this, they are sweating this. The question 639 00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:31,520 Speaker 1: is how do they get this all done? And let's 640 00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:33,440 Speaker 1: not forget they could do it on their own right now, 641 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,719 Speaker 1: couldn't they. Well, they could, except that they don't want to. 642 00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:38,960 Speaker 1: They don't want to add to the debt. You've seen 643 00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:40,880 Speaker 1: this movie a bunch of times just in the last 644 00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:42,960 Speaker 1: couple of months. Genie, you know this. We talked about 645 00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,560 Speaker 1: it every time. We do. And they may have to 646 00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,400 Speaker 1: if Mitch McConnell doesn't blink, which he did last time. 647 00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,280 Speaker 1: So they may have to do this. And let's not forget. 648 00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 1: This is also a period when traditionally you'll see people 649 00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,440 Speaker 1: deciding after they go home whether or not they want 650 00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,520 Speaker 1: to do this in the House, whether they want to 651 00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:00,640 Speaker 1: run in the mid term again. So this is a 652 00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,479 Speaker 1: fraught time for Democrats. They may have to go this alone. 653 00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,560 Speaker 1: I can't imagine Mitch McConnell doing what he did last time, 654 00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,160 Speaker 1: but of course I said that last time, and if 655 00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,239 Speaker 1: we were default, that would be you know, horrific for 656 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:14,160 Speaker 1: all of us. Well, he did promises you right, you 657 00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:15,799 Speaker 1: remember this. Look, I'm gonna help you get now. You 658 00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:17,439 Speaker 1: have all the time to work it out. I bought 659 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,560 Speaker 1: you said you needed time. I bought you time. Don't 660 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,560 Speaker 1: come back and ask me again. Do you take chape 661 00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:24,839 Speaker 1: and do you take Mitch McConnell let his work. Yeah, 662 00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:26,520 Speaker 1: I take him at his word. But they are going 663 00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:28,400 Speaker 1: to come back again. And um, just like you need 664 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 1: pointed out, there are three major things that are going 665 00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:32,719 Speaker 1: to happen over the next couple of weeks. And they 666 00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:35,440 Speaker 1: can either pass them separately or they can call them 667 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:39,359 Speaker 1: together into the largest piece of yeah that's ever been 668 00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 1: passed the history of the country. And I think either 669 00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,320 Speaker 1: scenario is going to be difficult for them. And again, 670 00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,360 Speaker 1: when you get into the debates over these little portions, 671 00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:48,920 Speaker 1: and you know how you know the media works, and 672 00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,279 Speaker 1: how the Republicans and the Democrats will pick out one 673 00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,680 Speaker 1: thing and you know, start arguing about that, it actually 674 00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,240 Speaker 1: bogs it all down because we're not having one conversation 675 00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,279 Speaker 1: about this, We're having a bunch of conversations about it. 676 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:01,960 Speaker 1: So why not throw it all into one bill, Jennie, 677 00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,319 Speaker 1: Just like Chapen said, Chapen's right in the bill for 678 00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:06,920 Speaker 1: us here tonight and then put that in front of 679 00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:11,440 Speaker 1: Joe Mansion and dare him to vote against reconciliation and 680 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:16,040 Speaker 1: cause the country to default. Well, you know, I wouldn't 681 00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:19,480 Speaker 1: dare Joe Mansion on anything at this point. Um, you know, 682 00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:21,680 Speaker 1: you know, listen, and I'm glad Japen is right in 683 00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:23,440 Speaker 1: the bill so we can go want to get this 684 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:27,080 Speaker 1: out of its kind of time. This makes it much 685 00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:30,359 Speaker 1: much easier. But you know, I mean, I think Democrats 686 00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,160 Speaker 1: have to be very careful here. Um. I don't think, 687 00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:36,000 Speaker 1: you know, Joe Mansion has any inkling anymore than anybody 688 00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:38,919 Speaker 1: else in Congress, Republican or Democrat does for the US 689 00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:42,160 Speaker 1: government to default at this point. But I do think 690 00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,880 Speaker 1: that Democrats, given these inflation numbers, at least the moderates, 691 00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,239 Speaker 1: the Chapman's and other ones among them, are going to 692 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,080 Speaker 1: be thinking very very carefully once they get this scoring 693 00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:54,480 Speaker 1: done about what they can stomach and sign onto at 694 00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:56,560 Speaker 1: this point and what they want to wait on. And 695 00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,200 Speaker 1: I think the President is cognizant of that, which is 696 00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:02,040 Speaker 1: why he's on the road starting next week selling the 697 00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:05,640 Speaker 1: hard infrastructure with which most people agree is what he 698 00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:07,800 Speaker 1: should be doing. Well, you know, I have I always 699 00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,680 Speaker 1: have another layer, and I'll add one now, and that is, 700 00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:13,799 Speaker 1: of course, the president's decision on the FED or decisions. 701 00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:17,040 Speaker 1: We talked about this at length just the other day, Jeanie, 702 00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,160 Speaker 1: and you know that could come at any moment as well. 703 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,759 Speaker 1: Shape and so here we have reconciliation. We've got to 704 00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,080 Speaker 1: get that done. I guess next week was the hope 705 00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:28,919 Speaker 1: to plan by Speaker Pelosi and her agreement with progressives. 706 00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:32,400 Speaker 1: We've got a debt ceiling that's about to bump into 707 00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:35,000 Speaker 1: something here, and then we've got government funding. All the 708 00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,920 Speaker 1: while the President needs to decide on who's going to 709 00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:39,319 Speaker 1: be the next chair of the FED, and then what 710 00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,160 Speaker 1: to do with the supervisory role in the seats one open, 711 00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:45,359 Speaker 1: the one that's going to be open in February. This 712 00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,759 Speaker 1: has to be done now. The markets don't like this 713 00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,720 Speaker 1: last minute business. Do you expect an announcement on that eminently? 714 00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:53,640 Speaker 1: I would hope. So, I mean, these are you know, 715 00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:55,839 Speaker 1: this is this is what a president does. These are big, 716 00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:59,919 Speaker 1: important decisions that affect people's everyday lives. And I would hope, 717 00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,000 Speaker 1: um that a decision comes soon. Um. And you know 718 00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:05,759 Speaker 1: you always hope for adults in Washington. D c and 719 00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,080 Speaker 1: you know you're never not you know, you're never not 720 00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:13,719 Speaker 1: disappointed every time. Do you want to that job? Um? Yeah, 721 00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,040 Speaker 1: I think he's you know, I think that's that's not 722 00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,480 Speaker 1: a ringing endorsement. No, you know, I think I think 723 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,520 Speaker 1: it's mixed reviews. You know, I don't think it's um, 724 00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,160 Speaker 1: you know, a lightning rod issue where it's um, you know, 725 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,600 Speaker 1: the the economy is going to collapse based on him 726 00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:30,080 Speaker 1: or someone else. UM. But I do think some stability 727 00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:32,680 Speaker 1: and some responsible decision making out of the White House 728 00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,640 Speaker 1: and Congress, both Republicans and Democrats, is what's needed to 729 00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:38,319 Speaker 1: restore you know, like you said, the markets don't like this. 730 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:42,000 Speaker 1: The markets don't like instability, prices, inflation, none, none of 731 00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:50,200 Speaker 1: the economic um uh indicators like instability or uncertainty. Every 732 00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,759 Speaker 1: day is almost more uncertain than the last. And I think, 733 00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,319 Speaker 1: UH President Biden needs to make a concerted effort to 734 00:37:56,480 --> 00:38:00,759 Speaker 1: show that he's making decisions explaining those visions. I think 735 00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:02,640 Speaker 1: he needs to be in from the press more explaining 736 00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,520 Speaker 1: these decisions. UM or at least the surrogates do a 737 00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:10,920 Speaker 1: news conference. Mavie. Imagine a primetime news conference in one Genie, 738 00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,640 Speaker 1: the story on the terminal. As I read, White House 739 00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:17,400 Speaker 1: team weighing FED sees no issue with Powell trades what 740 00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:20,080 Speaker 1: I thought the others are doing the trading. Top White 741 00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:22,760 Speaker 1: House officials do not believe that Powell's sale of shares 742 00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,839 Speaker 1: in a stock index fund last year disqualify him from 743 00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,640 Speaker 1: being appointed to a second term. According to people familiar, 744 00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:31,040 Speaker 1: I suspect Elizabeth Warren would not agree with that. How 745 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:35,600 Speaker 1: about Eugenie I suspect not, as she called him dangerous. 746 00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,800 Speaker 1: You know, it is fascinating to me we're still talking about, 747 00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,360 Speaker 1: you know, trading. That's something that we shouldn't have to 748 00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,839 Speaker 1: talk about with any of these people. But I do think, 749 00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:47,960 Speaker 1: given the inflationary numbers out yesterday, at least in my reading, 750 00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:53,480 Speaker 1: that actually helps Jerome Powell potentially keep his spot on 751 00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:55,960 Speaker 1: the FED. It might be a little harder for the 752 00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:59,200 Speaker 1: President to take a step towards Little Brainerd or somebody 753 00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:01,719 Speaker 1: else who's less talkish on the inflation issues. A Laal 754 00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:08,000 Speaker 1: Brainerd chairmanship would be lower rates for longer, right, Ginnie 755 00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:11,840 Speaker 1: Chanzano and a great conversation with our panel Chap and 756 00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:15,200 Speaker 1: Fay Republican strategist, Many thanks to both of your being 757 00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:17,799 Speaker 1: with us for the hour here. How about we deal 758 00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:20,160 Speaker 1: with Congress in trading while we're at it as well. 759 00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,520 Speaker 1: Meet you back here tomorrow on sound on This is Bloomberg.