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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Mark Maas Show,

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Speaker 1: where we talked about the decentralized revolution, how the world

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Speaker 1: is changing through our very eyes as we're looking at

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Speaker 1: through the length of politics, finance, and technology. Today we

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Speaker 1: are going to talk about well, what's always all three,

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Speaker 1: that's where they connect, and we're really going to talk

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Speaker 1: about the monetary system and then how technology can fix

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Speaker 1: that and so inflation. Inflation, Inflation the conversation, the topic

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Speaker 1: that's on everybody's head. We're gonna talk about how they're

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Speaker 1: lying about inflation and more importantly, how to fix it

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Speaker 1: once and for all. I'm sitting down with Parker Lewis.

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Speaker 1: He's a head of development at Unchained Capital. He's written

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Speaker 1: an eighteen part series on Gradually than Suddenly explain how

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Speaker 1: this changes. He's a wealth of information and it's going

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Speaker 1: to show you things that you have no idea about money.

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Speaker 1: So let's just go ahead to jump right into this

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Speaker 1: conversation with Parker. Thanks for welcome me Amy in here

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Speaker 1: spot where in your spot inside Marty spot uh So

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Speaker 1: shout out to Marty Van for letting us use the

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Speaker 1: studio tell Us from the crypt Um. Always a pleasure

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Speaker 1: to sit down and hang out, and so let's talk

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Speaker 1: about this. You recently put out a new article. You

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Speaker 1: came out of hiding, came out of sabbatical, we decided

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Speaker 1: to write again. Um, A lot of people who don't know,

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Speaker 1: but you've written a long series and I didn't know

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Speaker 1: this was your eighteenth installment or issue. Yeah, kind of.

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Speaker 1: There was a blitz between twenty nine and then the

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Speaker 1: last piece that I wrote for gradually suddenly was December.

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Speaker 1: And hadn't written h you know, had written some in between,

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Speaker 1: but not as part of the series, and had something

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Speaker 1: that I you know, a few other things that I

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Speaker 1: wanted to say and didn't have enough time to write,

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Speaker 1: and and dedicated to get back to it. So bear

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Speaker 1: markets are for building, and so here we are in

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Speaker 1: a bear market and you're back to writing again. That's right.

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Speaker 1: So UM, I would have guessed maybe there was like

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Speaker 1: eight or nine and I thought I've read them all.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, eighteen that's a lot um gradually and

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Speaker 1: suddenly I don't know if that come from like the

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Speaker 1: Mark Twain quote like how did you go? Brother? Hemingway?

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Speaker 1: Hemingway sorry? And I think it I think it was technically, UM,

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Speaker 1: first slowly than all at once and then culturally kind

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Speaker 1: of morphed into grab ually and suddenly. Yeah, so let's

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Speaker 1: talk about Um, let's talk about that that new issue

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Speaker 1: that you wrote here, and UM, I think there's when

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Speaker 1: I read it like, it seems like the theme of

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Speaker 1: it is inflation. That's kind of what I take away.

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Speaker 1: So you talked about the hedge of volatility risk, but

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Speaker 1: really hedging risk from like inflation. So let's let's start

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Speaker 1: and talk about inflation. UM. I think that's the the

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Speaker 1: topic to talk about. It seems to be kind of

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Speaker 1: the lightning rod here. Um. Inflation has been raging. Um.

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Speaker 1: The Fed wants to get a two percent inflation. They

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Speaker 1: haven't been able to get. Sty couldn't get inflation. Jerome

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Speaker 1: Pala said, well, let it run hot, and they overshot.

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Speaker 1: They got to nine. It's coming back down six. But

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Speaker 1: the Fed says there. Um, they're they're committed to it

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Speaker 1: bringing inflation back down. Um. You put in your paper

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Speaker 1: that they what do we have a ten to one

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Speaker 1: dollar denomination dollars on debt or demand versus the dollars

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Speaker 1: ninety nine trillion dollars and actual dollars ninety trillion in

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Speaker 1: dollar debt um. So let's talk about that for a minute.

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Speaker 1: You said inflation is a man made phenomenon. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think that one of the one of the points that

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Speaker 1: I make in the pieces that if and you should

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Speaker 1: really try not to watch CNBC or kind of mainstream

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Speaker 1: financial news. But whether it's mainstream financial news CNBC or

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg or academics at Western universities, there will be a

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Speaker 1: lot of debate about what causes inflation, like where does

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Speaker 1: it come from? And and and and it will almost

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Speaker 1: be dismissed as well, we can't really know, Like you know,

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Speaker 1: some people say x, some people say why, some people

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Speaker 1: say z um, but only the FED creates dollars. Only

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Speaker 1: the Fed can create more dollars. The Treasury prints dollars um.

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Speaker 1: But that all sources of dollar inflate comes from increasing

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Speaker 1: the supply. It's that simple. Even people who uh, there's

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Speaker 1: even debate about people who are maybe not so much

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Speaker 1: in the mainstream, but macro investors who I think more

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Speaker 1: and more become susceptible to this group think and they say, oh,

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Speaker 1: it's the expansion of credit. But it's like, you know,

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Speaker 1: just simplify it. It's like, if you create more dollars,

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Speaker 1: and the FED does and they have then that is

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Speaker 1: what produces dollar inflation. That's what causes every unit of

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Speaker 1: the dollar to purchase less over time. And I think

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Speaker 1: the thing that trips people up, which is one of

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Speaker 1: the subjects of the piece, is helping people understand how

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Speaker 1: the system works, how it's um revolved around a credit system,

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Speaker 1: and that what people struggle with is how the creation

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Speaker 1: of money gets distributed and how that impacts prices. But

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Speaker 1: it's very simple math. You create ten x the number

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Speaker 1: of dollars, doesn't matter kind of how and when each

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Speaker 1: dollar will purchase less. And it's to simplify it and

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Speaker 1: to to not get caught up in the minu show

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Speaker 1: that d tell because you fail to see the forest

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Speaker 1: of the trees that if one trillion dollars or point

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Speaker 1: nine trillion dollars existed in the US system in totality

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Speaker 1: in two thousand and seven, now nine trillion too, or

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Speaker 1: approximately nine trillion, and it doesn't really matter how and

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Speaker 1: where it appears and where it's more or less. That

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Speaker 1: is the core function that drives it. And it happens

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Speaker 1: functionally by a man made institution. UM. It happens technically

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Speaker 1: by a manmade computer where they click a button and

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Speaker 1: they credit JP Morgan's account with more dollars, or Bank

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Speaker 1: of Americas account with more dollars, or city group with

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Speaker 1: more dollars, and then those dollars start to come out

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Speaker 1: into the system. And that's anytime the monetary base expands

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Speaker 1: faster than the products and service space, right, not just dollars,

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Speaker 1: but money, if if we want to call it that,

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Speaker 1: Not to get into semantics here, but you know, if

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Speaker 1: you look at like the fift hundred, Spain went out

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Speaker 1: on expeditions, went to South America, found the biggest the

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Speaker 1: biggest silver deposit in the world, right, brought all that

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Speaker 1: silver and caused massive inflation because they rapidly expanded the

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Speaker 1: money supply. So saying thing, you're saying, yeah, and that's

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Speaker 1: exactly how I think about it. That um, because when

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Speaker 1: the when the money is actually created and given it's

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Speaker 1: a lot easier to see it now that the scale

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Speaker 1: is so great, but um, from March to May, the

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Speaker 1: Fed created three trillion dollars um and they were creating

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Speaker 1: hundreds of billions of dollars a week. That if you

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Speaker 1: really simplify it down to the second that they clicked

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Speaker 1: that button on the computer screen to credit six billion

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Speaker 1: in a week. Did you know at that time, I

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Speaker 1: think the money supply was probably three point eight trillion,

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Speaker 1: So did Could the goods in the economy possibly have

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Speaker 1: UM increased by you when when a click of a

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Speaker 1: button happens absolutely not? More? I think more fundamental is

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Speaker 1: the point that the operation of money creation, either a

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Speaker 1: clicking of a button or printing physical dollars, that that

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Speaker 1: does not produce oil, that does not produce more food,

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Speaker 1: that does not produce any good or service. It really

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Speaker 1: is extraneous so UM. Kind of the more fundamental piece

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Speaker 1: that I make in the in our argument that I

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Speaker 1: make in the piece is that that process of creating

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Speaker 1: money not only can goods not keep pace with it.

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Speaker 1: Empirically they don't and technically the way it happens, they don't.

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Speaker 1: But I think more importantly, the process of creating money

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Speaker 1: not only can it not produce oil or food or

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Speaker 1: power or water being delivered to your house, it actually

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Speaker 1: distorts the ability um to deliver goods to market UM,

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Speaker 1: And over time it slowly degrades or slowly impaired, becomes impaired,

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Speaker 1: until ultimately it breaks down entirely. Yeah, I want to

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Speaker 1: talk about that. You wrote a good piece that I

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Speaker 1: clipped that. I want to talk about that, but just

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Speaker 1: to kind of even show how much bigger this problem is.

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Speaker 1: The Fed creates money a couple of chillion dollars, as

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Speaker 1: you said, inject that in the system. But even more,

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Speaker 1: they set the price of money, so, um, there's a

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Speaker 1: cost to buy money. If I want to buy a house,

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Speaker 1: I need a million dollars, I have to go buy

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Speaker 1: that through a loan and the interest rate. So they

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Speaker 1: set the interest rate low, which then makes all of

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Speaker 1: us go take on more debt, which then also creates

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Speaker 1: more money. So then they injected the three trillion the

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Speaker 1: government's ejected, but then we all went and created a

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Speaker 1: bunch of money by adding debts. So it just rapidly expands. Um.

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Speaker 1: But you said in the paper, mistake people make, especially academics,

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Speaker 1: is believing it can go on forever. It seems to

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Speaker 1: have gone on forever, fifty years potentially at this point

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Speaker 1: fifty one just to print just put a little bit

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Speaker 1: more and more money, even a lot um. And uh,

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Speaker 1: the goods and services will merely cost more dollars. What's

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Speaker 1: the big deal? You say, the FED has been doing

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Speaker 1: this for decades, nearly a century. If money were simply

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Speaker 1: the basic math, it would be the case. But in reality,

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Speaker 1: the function of money is a highly complex and consequential.

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Speaker 1: It coordinates all economic activity. And so you say that

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Speaker 1: if they continue to do this, it fundamentally impairs the

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Speaker 1: currency's ability to coordinate economic ability. So explain that how

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Speaker 1: that gets coordinated and how that messes that whole system up. Yeah. So,

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Speaker 1: and I can't remember if I put this in the

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Speaker 1: piece or not, but UM, you know, one of one

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Speaker 1: of the examples that I know that I have in

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Speaker 1: the piece was where I just took a random tweet

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Speaker 1: where I saw somebody in the oil and gas business,

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Speaker 1: UM comment on how the price of goods in their

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Speaker 1: supply chain had increased so much that they were debating

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Speaker 1: whether or not to drill oil because they were, you know,

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Speaker 1: somewhere between do I do this now? Can I afford

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Speaker 1: to do this now? And I'm making the decision of wrap,

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Speaker 1: you know, to to not produce oil because there's rapidly

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Speaker 1: changing prices. Um. Another way to think about it is, UM,

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Speaker 1: what happened in the financial crisis or or the housing

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Speaker 1: crisis that coincided with a great financial crisis when UM

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Speaker 1: they fled the money with system, the system with money

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Speaker 1: reduce interest rates. They like you said, they set the

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Speaker 1: price of money. But the other side of that is, um,

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Speaker 1: they're setting the price functionally of maybe a mortgage, right

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Speaker 1: that then translates into the price of a house. And

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Speaker 1: what what functionally happens in the economic system is that

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Speaker 1: based on a false signal, the manipulated price signal of

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Speaker 1: what a mortgage cost, and then what translates to a

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Speaker 1: to a house, that a bunch of people who otherwise

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Speaker 1: might not have trained themselves on the skill of building

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Speaker 1: homes selling homes, and there's a whole economic system and

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Speaker 1: then there's a collapse and there's mass dislocation because the

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Speaker 1: price levels are unsustainable unless they continue to drip more

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Speaker 1: money in the system, and that the money kind of

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Speaker 1: I'd say the manifestation of the money becoming impaired is

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Speaker 1: that where UM, in a natural economic system, there wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be mass dislocations. But if you are manipulating price signals

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Speaker 1: and manipulating the money supply and ultimately the pricing mechanism

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Speaker 1: for the economy, which is the money for decades then

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Speaker 1: you can have these massive dislocative events in a system

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Speaker 1: because you have big mismatches in what can actually be

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Speaker 1: delivered on a sustainable basis, uh, and what true price

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Speaker 1: levels are or clearing price levels in the market. Um,

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Speaker 1: what it naturally concludes with this hyper inflation where where

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Speaker 1: the money in the economic system breaks entirely. And you know,

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Speaker 1: people have been kind of rolled to sleep around the

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Speaker 1: idea that this has been going on for a long time. UM,

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Speaker 1: But realistically, in the you know, gold and commodity metals

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Speaker 1: emerged over thousands of years as a form of money.

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Speaker 1: We are only fifty years removed from um from the

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Speaker 1: dollar or any fiat currency being untethered to any commodity

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Speaker 1: money which preceded it. And that's not a very long

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Speaker 1: period of time, you know, in terms of an economic system.

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Speaker 1: And that you know. I one of the other pieces

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Speaker 1: that I wrote was bitcoins is common sense, which there's

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Speaker 1: two old adage is which are, UM, there ain't no

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Speaker 1: such thing as a free lunch and UM, money doesn't

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Speaker 1: grow on trees. So did money magically begin to grow

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Speaker 1: on trees? Or are we living in an unsustainable kind

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Speaker 1: of system in period of time? And we are actually

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Speaker 1: seeing the manifestation of that come to fruition, you know,

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Speaker 1: you know, inflation running hot UM kind of people looking

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Speaker 1: at UM, the total number of people employed in the system,

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Speaker 1: our total number of people you know in the country, UM,

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Speaker 1: and so all of the right. And we've had financial

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Speaker 1: crisis after financial crisis. It's like something is broken. Most

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Speaker 1: people feel that or since that in their day the lives.

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Speaker 1: They just don't connect it to the root cause, which

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Speaker 1: is the money and the money degrading UM slowly becoming

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Speaker 1: more volatile UM. And if you can't, you know, another

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Speaker 1: thing that I think is fundamentally true is if it

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Speaker 1: caused her to produce money, people cannot continue to trade

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Speaker 1: real goods and services oil and gas, power, build bring water,

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Speaker 1: water and waste management systems, telecom. If it costs youer

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Speaker 1: to produce it dollar costs youer to prouce a trillion dollars,

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Speaker 1: three trillion dollars that over time, more people figure out

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Speaker 1: that this this good the dollar UM cannot sustain themselves.

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Speaker 1: They can't deliver eight hours of work in a day,

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Speaker 1: forty in a week, thousands in a year and convert

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Speaker 1: that into something that that bears no cost to produce. Yeah. Um,

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Speaker 1: as long as one group of people are stuck trading

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Speaker 1: their time for money and another group of people can

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Speaker 1: create money out of thin air, then one group will

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Speaker 1: always be in slavery to the other. Right, they can

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Speaker 1: just at least basically steal their life through that inflation. Um,

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about that for a minute. So they

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Speaker 1: measure this rate of inflation through CPI consumer price inflation, Right,

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Speaker 1: So they're supposedly tracking a basket of goods as it

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Speaker 1: goes through time, which seems like the true definition of inflation.

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Speaker 1: That maybe the Austrian definition inflation would be measuring the

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Speaker 1: money supply. Does the money supply expanding too decreasing and

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Speaker 1: then the prices would be a result of that, Right,

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Speaker 1: But they give us the CPI calculation. We saw that

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Speaker 1: we hit the highest point in forty years? Was it

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Speaker 1: last year? At nine point one percent? It's trending down

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Speaker 1: six and a half percent um. The Fed is committed

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Speaker 1: to bringing down inflation. All eyes are inflation. People are

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Speaker 1: feeling the pain at the grocery store, the gas pump, etcetera. Um.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw this, but I think

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Speaker 1: just this week the BLS came and changed how they're

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Speaker 1: going to calculate cp I. Did you see that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's a changed it from I think two years of

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Speaker 1: data to one to one year of data. And that

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Speaker 1: matters because last year's CPI was at the highest rate,

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Speaker 1: and so if you're measuring the year over your change,

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Speaker 1: it automatically brings CPI down. Now, it seems to me

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Speaker 1: that the FED is going to use that to continue

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Speaker 1: to manipulate and light and then be able to get

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Speaker 1: around and probably go back into some sort of easy

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Speaker 1: type scenario. But of course it doesn't do any good

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Speaker 1: for helping the people at the gas pumping or doesn't

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Speaker 1: help people make economic decisions. So this just puts us

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Speaker 1: even further into trouble. It seems like yeah, and I think,

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Speaker 1: I mean one, how they measure inflation, you know, like one,

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Speaker 1: I think in the summer of one, there was a

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Speaker 1: the propaganda came out that a a fourth of July

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Speaker 1: dinner was like sixteen cents less than it was the

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Speaker 1: year before. It was like sixteen cents of deflation. And

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Speaker 1: it's like every anybody who is buying goods and services

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Speaker 1: at that time, you know, buying a fourth of July,

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Speaker 1: you know, dinner launch or materials knows that their costs

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Speaker 1: were going up, you know. So I think the how

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Speaker 1: they change the measure one thing is that the measurement

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Speaker 1: itself before was flawed. Right, It's like CPI, regardless of

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Speaker 1: if they're changing it from two year to one year,

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Speaker 1: it's measuring a basket of goods. But ultimately it's tied

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Speaker 1: to your income. Your income is tied to the credit

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Speaker 1: system because that you know, it's like base money and

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Speaker 1: then ultimately money creation through credit, uh, that is what

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Speaker 1: dictates in total, how many dollars are circulating and how

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Speaker 1: many dollars can be spent, how many dollars can be

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Speaker 1: paid to you, um. And so the idea that you know,

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Speaker 1: if they increase the money supply by you know, in

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Speaker 1: May have or March of three point a trillion and

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Speaker 1: now it's close to nine trillions. With they created five

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Speaker 1: trillion dollars. But if you didn't, if your income didn't double,

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Speaker 1: you still have you know, and you were making sixty

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Speaker 1: dollars a year, things start to get more expensive that

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Speaker 1: you used to buy and you start to substitute. And

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Speaker 1: so rather than measuring inflation as what did a RIBBI cost,

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Speaker 1: this year versus the next year, versus the next year

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Speaker 1: versus the next year? What did a house cost that

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Speaker 1: has inputs? What is what does a door cost? What

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Speaker 1: is would cost? What what do basic materials cost? That

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Speaker 1: you actually the right way to look at it would

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Speaker 1: be looking at the same exact good year to year.

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Speaker 1: That doesn't change the input costs the raw material um

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Speaker 1: and instead what they do. It's like if you if

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Speaker 1: you substitute from a from a Ribbi to ground beef

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Speaker 1: or from a Ribby store bought at the grocery store

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Speaker 1: to a big back that the way that they even

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Speaker 1: set and do the calculation CBI, it's all driven by

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Speaker 1: income levels which are tied to the system that they control.

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Speaker 1: It's like it's a circular reference and so you know,

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Speaker 1: it's more to make the point that the measurement was

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Speaker 1: always flawed, but also changing how they measure it. You know,

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Speaker 1: what your standard of living is. People are not dumb.

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Speaker 1: They know that the things that they used to rely

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Speaker 1: on as part of their own standard of living costs

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Speaker 1: a hell of a lot more than nine percent, right

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Speaker 1: like stake at the grocery store, you know, power everything.

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Speaker 1: It's like yeah, like it's you know, you know, I

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Speaker 1: concern my of fortunate because I have a lot of savings,

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Speaker 1: but it's difficult to even go to the grocery store

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Speaker 1: the things that I would buy, and and I think

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Speaker 1: this is one place to where people really like. What

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Speaker 1: I probably heard most consistently is people go to the

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Speaker 1: grocery store and buy a bunch of goods. And I

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Speaker 1: heard people say like, I had my first um, three

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Speaker 1: grocery trip, or I had my first four grocery trip,

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Speaker 1: or I had my first five grocery trip, and they're there,

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Speaker 1: you know, because in the kind of academic world people

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Speaker 1: will talk about a basket of goods that is an

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Speaker 1: actual basket, right, And they people were noticing that what

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Speaker 1: they might have noticed that an individual good went up,

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Speaker 1: but then also when they were getting to the checkout,

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Speaker 1: that they were above a hurdle that they had never

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Speaker 1: been before. And that if the food and the things

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Speaker 1: that you were used to be buying cost thirty more,

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Speaker 1: inflation isn't nine, you know, or if they're more and

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Speaker 1: um and and that also is tied back to what

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Speaker 1: we talked about before, the creation of money cannot produce

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Speaker 1: more of the goods that you are relying on. And

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Speaker 1: what ultimately happens is people substitute down, they buy lower

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Speaker 1: quality goods, and and so it really is just it's

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Speaker 1: somewhere between propaganda and just dishonesty. Um. And but but

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Speaker 1: I ultimately, you know, it's like it doesn't really matter

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Speaker 1: what the BLS is saying, as c P. I, it

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Speaker 1: matters what you yourself by what you had become accustomed

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Speaker 1: to as your standard of living and having to make

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Speaker 1: choices to degrade that because your wallet is not expanding

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Speaker 1: as quickly as the goods that you used to demand.

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Speaker 1: And it doesn't just do that. It's also as you

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Speaker 1: already kind of said earlier, it's it messes up the

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Speaker 1: whole economic equation. And so because I have faulty data,

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Speaker 1: now as an entrepreneur business owner, I'm making poor decisions,

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Speaker 1: and then that affects the supply chain. So now not

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Speaker 1: only are you not able to get it because of

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Speaker 1: the demand, but now I'm not able to provide it

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Speaker 1: as much. Either that awesome mess up the supply but

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Speaker 1: then even worse than that, like look at the like

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Speaker 1: socio or just the societal impact. So for example, I

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Speaker 1: saw this, you know, eggs were all over the news

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Speaker 1: last week skyrocketing price. So people are substituting organic eggs

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Speaker 1: for non organic eggs, or I'll just have a bowl

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Speaker 1: of sugar and carbs in cereal for breakfast, right, and

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Speaker 1: so now I'm having to choose lesser options that are

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Speaker 1: less good for me, which then causes health problems and conservation.

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Speaker 1: But like when you substitute down right, like say you

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Speaker 1: used to buy organic eggs and they were four dollars

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Speaker 1: a dozen, and then, because this is how it actually works,

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Speaker 1: say the same organic eggs cost six dollars now, so

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Speaker 1: that I guess, yeah, they cost fifty percent more. Maybe

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Speaker 1: it's insulation. However, you want to look at the other

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Speaker 1: side of the coin. But if you decide that you're

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Speaker 1: going to buy twelve non organic eggs and they cost,

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Speaker 1: you know, four dollars, that change from four dollars and

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Speaker 1: cents to four dollars is what's included in CPI. But

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Speaker 1: the goods that used to demand and that we're higher

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Speaker 1: quality are more expensive by right. Um, So that is

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Speaker 1: the flaw of the CPI calculation as it relates to

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Speaker 1: kind of thinking about or trying to conceptualize how the

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Speaker 1: system can aggregate. Gets so screwed. Up. And this is

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Speaker 1: um and it's not just being pejorative towards the academic world,

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Speaker 1: but but people oftentimes think of, well, if more money

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Speaker 1: is created than everything is just going to cost more.

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Speaker 1: And that one of the fun you know when I

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Speaker 1: talk about money coordinating all other economic activity, that, um,

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Speaker 1: the price system is an output of convergence on a

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Speaker 1: common form of money. And that a very important piece

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Speaker 1: of information that we learned through the price system is

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Speaker 1: the relative value of all goods to each other. So, um,

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Speaker 1: if if a house cost dollars in a car cost fifty,

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Speaker 1: that the price, the price of an individual good is relevant,

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Speaker 1: but also the exchange ratio between house and car. If

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Speaker 1: I'm an auto manufacturer, how many cars do I need

401
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Speaker 1: to sell to be able to buy a house? Um?

402
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Speaker 1: And that when that that relative price of goods is

403
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Speaker 1: almost more important in an aggregate level than any individual price,

404
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Speaker 1: because it's what dictates all action. It's what allows people

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Speaker 1: to conceptualize, Hey, if I want to live in that

406
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Speaker 1: type of place, what type of income do I need

407
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Speaker 1: to make? If you think about budgeting, and that if

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Speaker 1: you just thought about will if I doubled the money

409
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Speaker 1: supply and if everything changed ratibally. If everything was just double,

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Speaker 1: maybe that wouldn't be such a terrible thing, because the

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Speaker 1: relative value of all goods to each other didn't change.

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Speaker 1: But that's not how it works. That the money doesn't

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Speaker 1: just go into everybody's however much money everybody in the

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Speaker 1: economic system have, they now have expert sent more um. Now,

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Speaker 1: you know, in an academic way, that might work too,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't. But but it's also not what happens that

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Speaker 1: the new money that's created does not get distributed in

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Speaker 1: the same allocation as it was before, and the economic

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Speaker 1: system as a whole actually fundamentally changes. The proportion of

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Speaker 1: who holds the money changes um. And what that does

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Speaker 1: is it distorts the relative value of house and car,

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Speaker 1: car and apple, you know, car and power, you know,

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Speaker 1: oil and gas, everything, And so everyone is being sent

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Speaker 1: these signals say, hey, like I need to buy a house,

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Speaker 1: but like the houses are too expensive for me before,

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Speaker 1: so I won't do that right now, um, and or

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Speaker 1: I need a car whatever it is that you need.

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Speaker 1: That the relative value because the money gets distributed unevenly.

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Speaker 1: And it's not just to say that the Fed chooses

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Speaker 1: this person over that person, but in a certain way,

431
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 1: if they were targeting mortgage rights. It advantages the housing

432
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 1: sector over everything else um. And there's people at the

433
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 1: FED who even talk about that, like post financial crisis,

434
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:24,639
Speaker 1: where there were critics even within the FED they were

435
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 1: challenging what they were doing, saying, we're not a hedge fund.

436
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 1: We're acting like a hedge fund where we used to

437
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 1: only buy treasuries. Now we're advantaging one sector of the

438
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 1: economy over the other. But that really sits at the

439
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 1: core of why when they create money, it does a

440
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 1: lot more harm than just make things more expensive. It

441
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 1: fundamentally shift the balance of power in the economic system.

442
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 1: And advantage is certain um certain goods or certain sectors

443
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 1: of the economy more than others. And in this system, realistically, UH,

444
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 1: sectors that depend more on the function of credit get

445
00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 1: disproportionately advantaged. Because we're in a based monetary system. Then

446
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 1: you have to use debt in credit in order to

447
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 1: get wealthy or or to think about as a producer.

448
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 1: If you know people use mortgages and put down in

449
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 1: in a mortgage, or you know you see advertisements for

450
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 1: automobiles no money down right, anything that the funding mechanism

451
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 1: UM is disproportionately reliant on the function of credit or

452
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 1: credit as a funding mechanism. It's not just that, um,

453
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 1: it kind of induces people to get into debt. It's

454
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 1: that the auto sector and the housing sector, you know,

455
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:49,680
Speaker 1: versus you know, if you just go buy a consumer product,

456
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 1: you're not generally funding that with debt, right, UM. That

457
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 1: it that it disadvantages or advantages the producers of those

458
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 1: more so than others. And this is I want to

459
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 1: talk more about that specific topic of credit and for

460
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: producers issuing credit. But I want to come back to that.

461
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 1: So let's jump into the other kind of point of

462
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 1: your article, which is obviously was inflation. But you were

463
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 1: talking about hedging against inflation, and so, UM, I think

464
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 1: everybody knows, like you shouldn't save your money in dollars.

465
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 1: I think we all just know that, maybe just instinctively

466
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,160
Speaker 1: are seeing our parents are watching TV. But so people

467
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 1: are putting their money into anything they can, stocks, real estate, bonds, art, whatever, right,

468
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: just to try to stay away from the dollar because

469
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 1: they know the dollars losing value without really thinking it through.

470
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 1: But it's inflation that's the problem, um, And so they're

471
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: hedging against inflation. And in the article, you were talking

472
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 1: about how bitcoin has typically been viewed as a hedge

473
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 1: against inflation, but you think it's a lot more than

474
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 1: a hedge. Yeah, well, I think that UM part of

475
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 1: what I was trying to explain in the piece, or

476
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 1: make a case for argument for it. I've I've never

477
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 1: personally thought of bitcoin as an inflation hedge. UM. I

478
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 1: came to understand bitcoin first because I understood why the

479
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 1: FED would have to print a lot of money UH

480
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 1: into perpetuity. I recognized that that was a problem and

481
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:13,159
Speaker 1: that we would need an actual solution, and that I

482
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 1: think a big part of it is that UM people do,

483
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,360
Speaker 1: whether they're conscious of it or subconscious of it, they

484
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 1: know that the dollars and their bank account are going

485
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 1: to lose value. That that is a certainty, and they

486
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:31,200
Speaker 1: they UM they deal with that certainty in different ways.

487
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 1: They manage the symptoms of the dollar losing the value.

488
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,640
Speaker 1: Some people might not know that the FED creates money,

489
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 1: but they know that the dollars in their bank account

490
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 1: that's the price signally that they purchased less over time,

491
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 1: and that there's a disincentive to hold dollars. And it

492
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 1: doesn't mean that UM. Everybody takes the same action, but

493
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:55,200
Speaker 1: there are certain goods that historically have been used as

494
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: an inflation has to to offset that decline. UM. Gold

495
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 1: has historically been at as UM. You know, people shifted

496
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 1: to using real estate and expectation that if they're going

497
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 1: to create money, or even if I don't know that,

498
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 1: if I know that the dollar is going to lose

499
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 1: purchasing power, that what are the goods that have can

500
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 1: consistently track that or offset that UM And I think

501
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 1: there's a there's a I don't think there's a fundamental

502
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 1: difference then UM making an investment that is designed to

503
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: offset the decline of the dollar essentially to either hold

504
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: its purchasing power UM or increase in purchasing power sufficiently

505
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 1: to offset the decline in the purchasing power of the dollar,

506
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 1: and to find something that can actually solve the problem permanently.

507
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 1: Do you think, though, just real quick, do you think

508
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 1: that most people, the majority, maybe they're not actually looking

509
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 1: at as the decline of the dollar, like, who my

510
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 1: dollars losing purchase power? I need to do something to

511
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 1: heade at I think they're looking at it like prices

512
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 1: are going up so fast. If I don't get my

513
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: money to make me more money, I won't be able

514
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 1: to keep up with the prices going higher, which is

515
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 1: the same thing that that That is how the price

516
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: signal that they recognize is that the goods that they

517
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 1: used to purchase costs more. That is the dollar declining person.

518
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 1: How they do I think I would gather that the

519
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 1: average person thinks about it as you know, if a

520
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 1: house used to cost a hundred thousand dollars now costs

521
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 1: five um, so it's the same thing to us. But

522
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 1: I just want to make that clear for people watching,

523
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 1: because I don't think most people equated to the dollars

524
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 1: losing power. They to see prices going up and I

525
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 1: need to be able to keep up with that. Yeah,

526
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 1: and and because the dollars need to account like one time,

527
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 1: I you know, because it's it's odd to think about

528
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 1: this way, but I do think it's the correct way.

529
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 1: Is that um, it's consistent with I think the more

530
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 1: true way that someone would measure inflation based on their

531
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 1: daily lives and not say that that's how they do it.

532
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 1: But if a bud light I used to cost a

533
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 1: dollar um, and now a bud light costs four dollars,

534
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 1: then what is the value of a dollar. It's a

535
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 1: quarter of a beer now and it used to be

536
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 1: one um, and so it is. It is the inverse.

537
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: But because the dollar is the unit of account, we

538
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: think about everything in dollar terms versus the inverse. It's

539
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 1: it's not really intuitive to think about um a dollar

540
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 1: as being worth if if a beer. It's not intuitive,

541
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 1: but it's very helpful, right, But but it is functionally

542
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 1: what's happening. Each dollar is purchasing less of the good

543
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 1: that you used to demand. And exactly as you said,

544
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 1: if I want to continue to sustain or maintain the

545
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 1: quality of life that I had, I need to figure

546
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 1: out how to turn my dollars into more such that

547
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 1: I'm not able to only buy a quarter of what

548
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 1: I used to be able to buy. So um, we're

549
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: hedging against that. We're trying to put them into real estate.

550
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 1: We're trying to put it into stocks so that hopefully

551
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: that it can buy us more bud Light or the

552
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:00,160
Speaker 1: same amount of bud Light in the future. Um. Then

553
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 1: back to kind of your papers, you're saying, it's not

554
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 1: just a headge. So bitcoin isn't just another real estate

555
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 1: stock option another option to hedge against it. But it's

556
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 1: actually a way to change the system so we don't

557
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 1: have to deal with inflation anymore. Yeah, And I think

558
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 1: the point that I raised there is, first, there is

559
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 1: something fundamentally different about, um, say, investing in real estate

560
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 1: as a hedge to inflation, with the idea that you're

561
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 1: going to get out of the dollar into a piece

562
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: of real estate, That real estate is going to increase

563
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 1: some purchasing power to such an extent that it offsets

564
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: any whether you think about it as increase in the

565
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 1: price of good as the services that that you choose

566
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 1: to demand, or a decline in the dollar that such

567
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 1: that that investment I buy real estate for the purpose

568
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 1: of getting back in the dollar so I can go

569
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 1: maintain my standard of living. That is very different than

570
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: recognizing that there is something fundamentally broken about my money,

571
00:31:56,920 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 1: and that while it might be intuitive that the piece

572
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 1: of real estate is not performing the same function as

573
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 1: the money, because you're not converting a piece of real

574
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 1: estate for groceries at the grocery store, you're converting into

575
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 1: money and then using money. That the function of money

576
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 1: and the function of real estate are different. Um it.

577
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 1: But coming back to that point that if I am

578
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 1: off setting dollar decline just to get back into dollars

579
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: is very different than saying the money is broken. I

580
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 1: don't just need to hedge inflation. I actually need a solution.

581
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 1: I need a I need a new form of money

582
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 1: that is not structurally engineered to lose its value. Because

583
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 1: if I'm solving I've got a problem and it is

584
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 1: with my money, the only possible solution to that can

585
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 1: actually be a different form of money to perform the

586
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 1: same function. Right. It's like the It's like the idea

587
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 1: that if my car is broken, I actually need a

588
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 1: new car to solve that problem. Um. And you know

589
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 1: kind of you know, if that kind of analogy makes sense. Um.

590
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 1: And So when I think about the problem being the

591
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve creates more money than more debt is created

592
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 1: on top of that money that's created, um or more

593
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 1: credit is created, that it is a man made problem.

594
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 1: One trillion two thousand seven existed, nine trillion exists today.

595
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 1: The Federal create more. Understand the reasons why. Um, But

596
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 1: that is a certainty that if the problem is printing

597
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 1: of money or the creation of money digitally, however you

598
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 1: want to think about it, then the permanent solution to

599
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:40,600
Speaker 1: that is removing the ability for any money, any amount

600
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 1: of money, to be created at an end state, and

601
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 1: that's what bitcoin represents. UM. So it is this very

602
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 1: stark dichotomy between the problem printing money, the solution would

603
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 1: be a form of money that can't be printed. And

604
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 1: then the question becomes is bitcoin that um? And that

605
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 1: the hardest thing to understand about bitcoin, I really believe

606
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: has very little to do with bitcoin itself, and it

607
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 1: has everything to do with money because most people have

608
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 1: not sat down and consciously considered what is money? Um.

609
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 1: They thought about all the things in their life about

610
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 1: finances and economics, but all those build on top of money. UM.

611
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: And if they start to question what money is and

612
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 1: what would make something a better or worse form of money,

613
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 1: that that's actually harder than than if you just sat

614
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:27,799
Speaker 1: there and said, I'm going to ignore that this thing

615
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 1: was called bitcoin and that it's just separate form of

616
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,280
Speaker 1: money and it can't be printed. Would that be better

617
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 1: than as an alternative to a form of money that

618
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:39,399
Speaker 1: can be If you go through that thought exercise, people

619
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 1: are gonna say yes. And one person might say now,

620
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:43,720
Speaker 1: except for the FED has done really good by tricking

621
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 1: people into thinking that the money supply is always supposed

622
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 1: to expand, right, So a lot of people think, well,

623
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 1: if the money supply doesn't expand with an economic activity

624
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 1: is going to halt. I actually think that that's very

625
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:59,919
Speaker 1: few people, but they've been very effective at um echoing

626
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,840
Speaker 1: that through mainstream, so they haven't stopped to think what

627
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 1: that means, but they do echo it. I think that right, correct,

628
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 1: But but I think that at the same time that

629
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 1: everyone's come to understand that that is a certainty. Um,

630
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 1: the money sly will keep expanding or that or maybe

631
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 1: less so that the money's why we'll keep expanding, but

632
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 1: that the price the goods that they need continue to

633
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:26,320
Speaker 1: go up, right, Um, but rationally not rationally economic actress.

634
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:31,280
Speaker 1: Anybody that produces anything intuitively knows that that that that's

635
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 1: not sustainable or functional. Right that Miss Mysis had the

636
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 1: crack up boom, and he says, and then suddenly the

637
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:43,720
Speaker 1: people realize that inflation is both intentional and never ending.

638
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 1: Yea and so and then also they don't wan anymore,

639
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,320
Speaker 1: right yeah, and so I guess the point I'm making

640
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 1: is that the person that's sitting there, that whose income

641
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 1: is not going up by but the food of the

642
00:35:56,320 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 1: grocery store is they know that. But it's like, if

643
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:03,919
Speaker 1: you're making an academic argument that the creation of money

644
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,799
Speaker 1: is good, that's irrelevant to me. I know that the

645
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 1: things that I need to purchase going up in cost,

646
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 1: while my ability to earn is not matching. That is

647
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:16,959
Speaker 1: not a good thing, right, um. And so that's where

648
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 1: common sense comes in for a very small fraction of people,

649
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 1: um that that really are in the one percent that

650
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:27,720
Speaker 1: have assets that are off setting this. I mean realistically,

651
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,279
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, when a currency hyperinflates

652
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 1: destroys everybody's UM or doesn't destroy necessarily it um. Everybody's

653
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:39,920
Speaker 1: standard of living in that world decline. UM. But that

654
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 1: the vast majority of everyone intuitively and via common sense

655
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 1: knows that the price of everything around them going up

656
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,720
Speaker 1: does not serve them well. So bitcoin has a fixed

657
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 1: supply cap twenty one million versus the dollar has no

658
00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 1: supply cap, and it's growing at a faster and faster

659
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:02,439
Speaker 1: rate to go through time. Um, you made you made

660
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 1: a point that I want to ask you to expand on.

661
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 1: So a lot of people might say that bit bitcoin

662
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:12,040
Speaker 1: is risky because it's too volatile, and now it's it's

663
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 1: way too risk risky because it goes up and down wildly.

664
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 1: And you said that there's a distinction between risk and volatility,

665
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 1: and you have to look at those two things differently

666
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,839
Speaker 1: when when you're looking at bitcoin. Yeah, and I want

667
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 1: to I'd like to frame this from the perspective of,

668
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:32,399
Speaker 1: you know, an overarching kind of theme to this piece,

669
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 1: bitcoin is not a hedge is that one of the

670
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:39,319
Speaker 1: most common questions are not maybe not even one of

671
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 1: the most frequent question I've received over the last twelve

672
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 1: to eighteen months is I thought bitcoin was supposed to

673
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 1: be an inflation hedge. There is inflation. Why is bitcoin

674
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 1: going down? Um? And I really make the point that

675
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 1: it's it's not an inflation hedge for the reason that

676
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 1: it is replacing the dollar, um, and that or is

677
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 1: it there's a fundamental distinction between that, But trying to

678
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 1: help people understand why those two things could be consistent,

679
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 1: why bitcoin could both be the solution to inflation and

680
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:12,920
Speaker 1: the permanent replacement to the dollar. Well, for an intermittent

681
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,360
Speaker 1: piece period of time, the value could come down, it

682
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:18,359
Speaker 1: might go up at the same time, you know, when

683
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 1: the reverse is happening. But but the fundamental doesn't change.

684
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 1: And that when I bring that that to kind of

685
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 1: this concept of imagine very few people in the world

686
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 1: understanding bitcoin, which is the reality. You know, if if

687
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:40,440
Speaker 1: you're somebody who doesn't understand bitcoin, um, you are in

688
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 1: the very very large majority. If you are someone who

689
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 1: kind of has started and when I say I understand it,

690
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 1: started to see it as money, started to key in

691
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:51,040
Speaker 1: on the fact that there will only ever be twenty

692
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:54,840
Speaker 1: one million, and that that's the value proposition. Just in

693
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 1: your common life. Think about, like, do one out of

694
00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 1: a hundred people in your life that you know in

695
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 1: your orbit to do they also get it? Is it

696
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 1: out of one out of the out of those one

697
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 1: out of a hundred two hundred, then how many of

698
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 1: those actually understand what money is? On top of that?

699
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:13,280
Speaker 1: So that's the point that I make that you almost

700
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 1: have to get to that point before you can start

701
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 1: to understand bitcoin. But the point being that bitcoin is

702
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 1: very difficult to understand and most people do not even

703
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:28,920
Speaker 1: know where to start um. And so in in in

704
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 1: the face of inflation going up or you know FTX

705
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:36,399
Speaker 1: failing or you know three errors or celsius whatever, if

706
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:40,719
Speaker 1: you do not have an anchor point to understand what

707
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 1: the fundamental value proposition is, then how can you evaluate

708
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 1: any piece of information? Right? And so I try to

709
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 1: lay out a framework to understand kind of what's been

710
00:39:55,560 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 1: happening the dynamics of inflation, but also to provide a roadmap. Two,

711
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 1: if somebody wants to understand bitcoin, first you have to

712
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 1: understand that the value proposition derives around the fact that

713
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 1: it's a form of money that can be printed. Most

714
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:12,400
Speaker 1: people might not even know that, or even ones that

715
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 1: do know that, they might not understand why that's consequential

716
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 1: to the nature of money, right. And so it's kind

717
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 1: of to to establish that that idea of um, you know,

718
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:26,479
Speaker 1: kind of leading up and I'll come to this point

719
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:29,720
Speaker 1: that you asked about, where it's you know, risk versus

720
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 1: um volatility, which is the way that I would frame

721
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:42,279
Speaker 1: risk is the degree of future uncertainty, right, And then

722
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 1: the question is, well, how certain or uncertain is bitcoin?

723
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:50,880
Speaker 1: And to to use a you know kind of uh

724
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:56,919
Speaker 1: a contrast, if I'm trying to estimate, say, how many

725
00:40:57,239 --> 00:40:59,799
Speaker 1: iPhones are going to be sold, how many people are

726
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 1: going in man iPhones, how many people are going to

727
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:06,319
Speaker 1: demand phones, how many competitors might exist, that there's a

728
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 1: lot more uncertainty embedded than that, but that if you

729
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:14,840
Speaker 1: start to understand that the value proposition around bitcoin is

730
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 1: there will only ever be twenty one million, and that

731
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 1: you might not understand how or why that happens or

732
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 1: its relevance. That the certainty that can be created around

733
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,839
Speaker 1: identifying whether or not that is true, there will only

734
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 1: ever be twenty one million. Uh is a lot more

735
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 1: knowable than what one company is going to do in

736
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 1: the world, how many goods or services they're going to

737
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 1: be able to sell, and how much money they are

738
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 1: going to be able to earn. And so this idea

739
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 1: of because it's risk and certainty versus risk and uncertainty,

740
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 1: and then volatility, because yes, bitcoin is volatile. But if

741
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 1: you came to the conclusion as an example that um,

742
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 1: it was becoming more and more certain in your mind

743
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 1: that bitcoin could credibly enforce a fixed supply of twenty

744
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:09,640
Speaker 1: one million, that that fixed supply, the form of money

745
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 1: that can't be printed, is the value proposition, and that

746
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 1: you start to develop a framework as to how it happens,

747
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 1: and that the thing that happened in the day that

748
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: that caused some people to question it to cause the

749
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 1: price to change. UM. If you anchor to that is

750
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,200
Speaker 1: known and it is certain, then you start to see

751
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:35,759
Speaker 1: the volatility as essentially information asymmetry of not a lot

752
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 1: of people understand that, so what they're reacting to is

753
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 1: not the actual signal. And if you have that guide post,

754
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 1: I think about as as a lighthouse. If you have

755
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:46,279
Speaker 1: that lighthouse, which is bitcoin is valuable because there will

756
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:49,879
Speaker 1: only ever be twenty one million, and I understand how

757
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:53,720
Speaker 1: it's enforced or at least have some framework, then everything

758
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 1: else is moving around it, and that is a certain

759
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 1: thing and that UM. You know a lot of times

760
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 1: people TV academics, even uh macro investors will say that

761
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:09,240
Speaker 1: there's a risk free rate UM and that UM people

762
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 1: have been conditioned that way, but they're realistically is no UM,

763
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 1: There isn't there's nothing riskless in the world. That that

764
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 1: everything exists on a spectrum and it it is between

765
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:24,400
Speaker 1: what is most uncertain and what is least uncertain. And

766
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,279
Speaker 1: that if you start to think about risk in that

767
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:30,640
Speaker 1: perspective of of things that are noable or certain and

768
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 1: recognizing that that nothing is noble that in bitcoin UM

769
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 1: and this is the case I lay out is that

770
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 1: that for people that that that start to develop that

771
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 1: framework of this is why bitcoin is valuable, and I

772
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 1: start to understand how it happens, then it becomes the

773
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:53,319
Speaker 1: least uncertain good in the market. And so there's more

774
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:56,600
Speaker 1: noable things about it for sure, Right, Yeah, there's more

775
00:43:56,640 --> 00:44:00,840
Speaker 1: noble things on an absolute basis, but then also relative

776
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 1: to all other things you know, within the economic system. Yeah,

777
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 1: the then the big uncertainty around it is will enough

778
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 1: people choose that? Well? And that's that's where I write.

779
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:19,040
Speaker 1: Because we know, we know the fixed supply, we know

780
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 1: you know what, we can learn all of that. But

781
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,359
Speaker 1: then the big uncertain because it's because it's new, right,

782
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 1: and will enough people that because of those features? And

783
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 1: I will and I would say that, Um, there's a

784
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 1: fundamental reason why why they will have to um, and

785
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:36,400
Speaker 1: that it is because everyone needs money and everyone has

786
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 1: the incentive to hold the best form of money, and

787
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 1: that the best form of money is the one that

788
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 1: has the lowest rate of change. Um. Now, there's a

789
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 1: lot packaged in there, but it's on each person to

790
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:54,240
Speaker 1: evaluate that question themselves. And UM, it's not so much

791
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 1: does every individual have to arrive at the same conclusion.

792
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 1: It is do enough arrived inclusion where everyone else gets

793
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:05,399
Speaker 1: dragged along? Um. And then the question becomes, well, what's

794
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 1: your alternative? Because because you have a problem, the money

795
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:12,600
Speaker 1: that you use on a day to day basis gets

796
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 1: created at no cost, and that you are going to

797
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:20,359
Speaker 1: have to have an alternative, right and and money never

798
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 1: it doesn't exist within a vacuum, exists and competes with

799
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:27,040
Speaker 1: all other forms of money. Uh. And so you know,

800
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 1: in the way that I got into bitcoin, I I'd

801
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 1: recognized that the dollar was a problem and that if

802
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 1: a central bank could create trillions of dollars overnight at

803
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 1: no cost, that people are going to stop valuing that

804
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:42,799
Speaker 1: that was going to stop functioning as money. So to me, UM,

805
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:46,319
Speaker 1: I think when people go down the rabbit hole, it

806
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 1: is if bitcoin has a credibly forced, enforced fixed supply

807
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 1: of twenty one million, b will happen? If a then

808
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,799
Speaker 1: b um, because we have to put our money because

809
00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:59,800
Speaker 1: that is the input. If if if the input is credible,

810
00:46:00,520 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 1: then you have a form of money that can be printed. Um,

811
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 1: and that nothing can have You know what would be

812
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 1: better a form of money that can be increased it

813
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 1: two percent a year, one percent a year, point eight

814
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 1: percent a year, point six percent, point four percent, point

815
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:16,840
Speaker 1: three point two point zeros or one one right um?

816
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 1: Or A better question is how much of your wealth

817
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 1: would you like to lose per year? Right? Yea? Or

818
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,560
Speaker 1: or ten percent? Right? Yeah? And I think that it's

819
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 1: more so that most people do not understand why. But

820
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:34,000
Speaker 1: like even if I if I got to the point said, okay,

821
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:36,800
Speaker 1: I would accept that if bitcoin had a fixed supply,

822
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:40,399
Speaker 1: that that might be a value, most people don't even

823
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 1: most people walking around the world today don't even know that. Right.

824
00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 1: Then the next layer might be, well, you say that

825
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 1: bitcoin has a fixed supply, but there's a thousands other cryptocurrencies.

826
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 1: How do I know it's gonna be this one? Right?

827
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 1: And there's some inherent questions about what is money. So

828
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:57,520
Speaker 1: I think it's less about like if all those things

829
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:02,960
Speaker 1: were true, do they still use it? It's that those things.

830
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:05,360
Speaker 1: It's more so if those things are true, it's just

831
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:08,879
Speaker 1: a matter of knowledge being distributed because they will have

832
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 1: to if it is true. And that um there. You know,

833
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 1: I have a chart in there which is just a

834
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:18,320
Speaker 1: bitcoin price chart, but it's as a function of time

835
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:22,840
Speaker 1: knowledge distributes. People do not adopt bitcoin as a standard

836
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:26,560
Speaker 1: of value UM because of any single event, because there's

837
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 1: inflation or not inflation because um, the Fed printed money

838
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 1: you know tomorrow or the next day. It's that they

839
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:38,080
Speaker 1: have to develop accumulative body of work to make sense

840
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:40,360
Speaker 1: out of this thing, bitcoin being money or what money

841
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 1: is UM at the very kind of most fundamental level,

842
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 1: how you know, not everyone's gonna have to just like nope,

843
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 1: not just like not everyone knows how a telephone works.

844
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 1: Most people are able to use a telephone. That when

845
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:57,120
Speaker 1: we're in this early phase of bitcoin adoption, people are

846
00:47:57,120 --> 00:48:00,239
Speaker 1: having to make the conscious decision is this money and not?

847
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:03,239
Speaker 1: But not everyone's going to have to do that. So

848
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 1: if it's a different monetary system, it's a solution to

849
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,399
Speaker 1: the inflationary monitory system where they constantly expand the money

850
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:10,879
Speaker 1: money supply, and now we moved to a new monit

851
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 1: monetary system where they can't explan expand the monetary supply.

852
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:17,799
Speaker 1: There's trade offs with that, there's pros and cons. So

853
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 1: in an inflationary environment, the economy can grow rapidly. UM,

854
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 1: I could go out and buy ten houses and ten

855
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 1: trucks and expand my business in a fixed monetary supply.

856
00:48:27,680 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 1: Then that wouldn't be possible. And this is one argument

857
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:33,040
Speaker 1: that we might hear a lot, Right, So it's like, well,

858
00:48:33,040 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 1: how does the economy grow if the money supply doesn't

859
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 1: expand I did, Well, I disagree with that. Yeah, yeah,

860
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 1: I'm not asking you. This is kind of something I

861
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 1: hear a lot. Yeah, I think I disagree with the

862
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 1: idea that, um, if I create money, more money in

863
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:52,359
Speaker 1: that um, the economic system can grow faster, which um,

864
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 1: because I actually think it's the opposite. UM in dollar terms,

865
00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:03,239
Speaker 1: more dollars can be spent, right, but there's nothing really Um,

866
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:07,919
Speaker 1: there's nothing, nothing really relevant of more dollars moving around

867
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 1: with more goods and services aren't being created. And it's

868
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 1: not it's not as black and white as one or

869
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:17,600
Speaker 1: one or or the other. Um. But that I would challenge, like,

870
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:23,080
Speaker 1: because this is a I want to say, a fundamental fact.

871
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 1: But I think it's a fundamental economic truth that the

872
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:28,680
Speaker 1: creation of money actually impairs the economic systems ability to function.

873
00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 1: So it might feel like a you know, take a

874
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:33,400
Speaker 1: hit of a drug and it feels good for a second,

875
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 1: like you're destroyed, um, But that The only way I

876
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 1: feel like to to make sense of this for people

877
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:49,720
Speaker 1: is that if you have a form of money and

878
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:54,440
Speaker 1: just at any point in time, I have worked X

879
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:57,239
Speaker 1: number of hours and I have saved X number of

880
00:49:57,320 --> 00:50:02,759
Speaker 1: unit of currency as a holder of currency, would it

881
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 1: ever make more sense for somebody else in a far

882
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:08,479
Speaker 1: flan to be able to create it? Does that help

883
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 1: you in any way? Did that? Did that increase your

884
00:50:12,120 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 1: ability two go buy ten houses? No? Uh? And so

885
00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 1: the really like, I think the problem that the mistake

886
00:50:22,600 --> 00:50:24,879
Speaker 1: that people make is focusing on the aggregates and be like, oh,

887
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:27,000
Speaker 1: that sounds to make sense. They make more dollars, and

888
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:30,799
Speaker 1: we can produce more things because there's more money. But

889
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:35,080
Speaker 1: in reality, the increase in in the form of money

890
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 1: didn't do anything to make more manufacturing plants, right, Like

891
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 1: it didn't do anything to produce more oil. Plant would

892
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:45,680
Speaker 1: have never been built if someone couldn't have got the

893
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:48,719
Speaker 1: loan in order to go and build. But there you go, right,

894
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 1: um get the loan? Right who says that you need

895
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 1: a loan to go? Would you'd have to save up

896
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:59,799
Speaker 1: the money otherwise, which someone might not have, right? But

897
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:05,799
Speaker 1: but who produces the oil? Human beings do? Right? So

898
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:08,719
Speaker 1: realistic to make the factor the steel of the concrete

899
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 1: or whatever that if that that that the input is

900
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 1: actually human time, So you getting alone doesn't necessarily or

901
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:20,879
Speaker 1: doesn't increase the number of people that have the capability

902
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:24,799
Speaker 1: to actually go out and produce a barrel of oil, right. Uh.

903
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:28,960
Speaker 1: And so the thing that's going to make oil cheaper

904
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:33,000
Speaker 1: is either more people producing it and making it more

905
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:36,239
Speaker 1: abundant that way, or finding better ways to do it

906
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 1: not you know, I think these two things have become conflated.

907
00:51:40,520 --> 00:51:42,440
Speaker 1: Not the creation of credit to let me go do

908
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:46,920
Speaker 1: it now, right, because the alternative is you could save,

909
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:53,280
Speaker 1: and how do you save? You consume lesson you produce.

910
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:55,719
Speaker 1: But you gotta produce something, right, you gotta you gotta

911
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:58,720
Speaker 1: go earn the money to then be able to go invest,

912
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:02,319
Speaker 1: whether it's in producing a h an oil well or

913
00:52:02,560 --> 00:52:06,880
Speaker 1: you know, producing TVs. That the creation of money, it's like,

914
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,960
Speaker 1: it doesn't doesn't change the skill set, It just it

915
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:15,279
Speaker 1: just changes how economic resources are allocated. And that I

916
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 1: think that is one of the things that people struggled

917
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:19,080
Speaker 1: with the most. I wrote an article called Bitcoin is

918
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:20,920
Speaker 1: the Great Definancial Station. That was the last one that

919
00:52:20,960 --> 00:52:26,280
Speaker 1: I wrote before I took this hiatus um, which people

920
00:52:26,320 --> 00:52:29,319
Speaker 1: struggle with this idea of a fixed money supply and

921
00:52:29,400 --> 00:52:32,879
Speaker 1: that being bad for an economic systems. Again, first think

922
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:36,359
Speaker 1: about yourself, I've saved X that that's that's the most

923
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:41,840
Speaker 1: important thing. And then because the economic dilemma multiplied um

924
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:46,000
Speaker 1: eight billion times over is the same the macro is.

925
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 1: Imagine there's only twenty one million bitcoin, no more can

926
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:56,360
Speaker 1: be saved at any point in time, right, But that

927
00:52:56,440 --> 00:53:00,439
Speaker 1: actually creates the incentive for more people to save. If

928
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:04,600
Speaker 1: there's a form of money that has the economic incentive

929
00:53:04,719 --> 00:53:06,920
Speaker 1: that is, this form of money is not going to

930
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 1: degrade in value, um, it cannot be created, No more

931
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:14,560
Speaker 1: of it can be created. That that actually creates the

932
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 1: incentive to save, and the creation of people saving actually

933
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 1: creates more people in the economic system to be able

934
00:53:21,160 --> 00:53:24,719
Speaker 1: to buy things on a sustainable basis um. And so

935
00:53:26,239 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 1: when when you because it is an interesting thought exercise,

936
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:32,360
Speaker 1: like if there's twenty one million, twenty one million are

937
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 1: always being saved by somebody, no more or less, but

938
00:53:35,160 --> 00:53:37,120
Speaker 1: there's more people who actually have an incentive to save.

939
00:53:37,480 --> 00:53:39,640
Speaker 1: So what ends up happening in that system? And we

940
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 1: have you know, we've seen this that the bitcoin continues

941
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:45,560
Speaker 1: to become more and more decentralized. As more people adopted,

942
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:47,960
Speaker 1: you have to deliver value to somebody that holds bitcoin

943
00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:50,960
Speaker 1: or to get it away from them. Um. And so

944
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:54,000
Speaker 1: when you when you kind of think about that in

945
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:56,479
Speaker 1: the context of like where where do the incentives life,

946
00:53:56,719 --> 00:53:59,160
Speaker 1: it's like, and will people spend a currency because it's

947
00:53:59,160 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 1: the other thing that people starve? Well, will people spend

948
00:54:01,560 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 1: a currency that um that can't be printed, like it

949
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:09,239
Speaker 1: creates a distancentive to spend. We'll imagine there's twenty one

950
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 1: million bit quite imagine there's a billion people in the world.

951
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:14,400
Speaker 1: Imagine all eight billions people need to eat every day

952
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 1: and need to consume power every day. That there's not

953
00:54:19,560 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 1: going to be a problem of people spending money in

954
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:26,120
Speaker 1: a fixed supply regime. And I feel like the only

955
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:28,000
Speaker 1: I don't want to say the only people, but it is.

956
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:31,160
Speaker 1: It is easy to get caught in that trap. But

957
00:54:31,440 --> 00:54:33,520
Speaker 1: imagine there's only twenty one million bit quite imagine you

958
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:35,279
Speaker 1: have some of them, and imagine you need to eat

959
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:39,399
Speaker 1: and that you need gas. Are you not spending your bitcoin? Right?

960
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:41,920
Speaker 1: So I think it's a false dilemma and that what

961
00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:45,239
Speaker 1: actually happens because of the incentives is that you do

962
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:48,600
Speaker 1: not get like it is crazy that we live in

963
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:50,680
Speaker 1: a world where you know, whenever you see one of

964
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:53,479
Speaker 1: the statistics where it's like fifty people in the United

965
00:54:53,520 --> 00:55:00,080
Speaker 1: States do not have right, well, that exists because of

966
00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:03,239
Speaker 1: the incentives of the economic structure. No one has savings.

967
00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:05,799
Speaker 1: So a little bump in the road happens. And now

968
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:09,799
Speaker 1: that economic actor, once that first five hundre gets subtracted,

969
00:55:10,280 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 1: they can no longer consume it in the system. And

970
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 1: that if you if you flip the script, if you

971
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:19,400
Speaker 1: have an incentive to it's like you know again, like

972
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 1: these are very like common sense concepts. If you create

973
00:55:22,120 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 1: a disincentive to save, people will not save. If you

974
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:29,439
Speaker 1: create an incentive to save, people will save. And that

975
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:33,680
Speaker 1: that actually creates economic balance, economic balance and more people

976
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:37,520
Speaker 1: have having savings translates into more people that can go

977
00:55:37,560 --> 00:55:40,400
Speaker 1: out there and consume and the economist but it also

978
00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:46,720
Speaker 1: creates and almost by definition producers, more producers, more savers,

979
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 1: more goods. So do you think it's super things you

980
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:52,520
Speaker 1: mentioned like a head of drugs, So like if I

981
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:56,479
Speaker 1: was taking an artificial stimulant um, I could maybe work

982
00:55:56,560 --> 00:55:59,360
Speaker 1: faster and longer now, but then I might have to

983
00:55:59,360 --> 00:56:01,200
Speaker 1: go sleep or two days, so maybe at the end

984
00:56:01,200 --> 00:56:04,880
Speaker 1: of three days, um, behind where you were naturally something

985
00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:08,480
Speaker 1: like that is that No, I think about it more like, uh,

986
00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 1: use the analogy, and I have to give safe credit

987
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:17,839
Speaker 1: for this one. But um, it's like a Heroin. Never

988
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:22,040
Speaker 1: done Heroin by the way, but but you know some

989
00:56:22,080 --> 00:56:26,359
Speaker 1: people who did. Um. But that you take a hit

990
00:56:26,400 --> 00:56:30,759
Speaker 1: and it makes you feel good supposedly, um, and that

991
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:34,680
Speaker 1: you get addicted to it. Well, first time, maybe it's okay.

992
00:56:34,719 --> 00:56:37,799
Speaker 1: A second time, maybe it's okay. Then you can become

993
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:42,279
Speaker 1: dependent on it, and that you need to get off

994
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:46,400
Speaker 1: that and go through withdraw otherwise you have certain death.

995
00:56:46,760 --> 00:56:52,520
Speaker 1: You die on the table, right. Um that Uh, drugs

996
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 1: are addictive, right, so if you could say, like I'm

997
00:56:56,040 --> 00:57:00,480
Speaker 1: only going to do it once, maybe it's worth the experiment. Um.

998
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:04,759
Speaker 1: And that and that that I think that they that

999
00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:09,000
Speaker 1: heroin is the best analogy or something that is terminal,

1000
00:57:10,440 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 1: like a stimulant, because a stimulant would speed me up temporarily,

1001
00:57:13,960 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 1: so I might be more productive in the beginning, but

1002
00:57:16,680 --> 00:57:19,560
Speaker 1: then as I come down, I'm less productive. Yeah, but

1003
00:57:19,920 --> 00:57:23,600
Speaker 1: more money in the ecosystem makes the economy more productive.

1004
00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:25,440
Speaker 1: Like now there's a bunch of money, go create, go

1005
00:57:25,480 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 1: try a bunch of things, a bunch of mal investment whatever.

1006
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 1: But like we go create a bunch of things, but

1007
00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:33,320
Speaker 1: then it causes the decline, right, but it but but

1008
00:57:33,360 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 1: it would I think in that world it would assume

1009
00:57:36,600 --> 00:57:39,919
Speaker 1: that you get back to some stasis. Um, And that's

1010
00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 1: not necessarily how do keep doing speed or you die

1011
00:57:43,640 --> 00:57:46,640
Speaker 1: to yeah? Um and so and I think I think

1012
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:51,280
Speaker 1: one or like probably the practical thing that happens here

1013
00:57:51,400 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 1: is that if you think about because there's nothing inherently

1014
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:59,280
Speaker 1: bad about credit by the way, um that some of

1015
00:57:59,480 --> 00:58:02,480
Speaker 1: I think when I write, or maybe people might interpret

1016
00:58:02,480 --> 00:58:09,600
Speaker 1: that people read my piece, but um, that the way

1017
00:58:09,600 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 1: that the US financial system works is it's all debt based, um.

1018
00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:22,400
Speaker 1: And that if it was merely a function of And

1019
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:24,200
Speaker 1: this is where I kind of differ from some of

1020
00:58:24,200 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 1: the other people that think credit creation is money creation.

1021
00:58:28,000 --> 00:58:32,160
Speaker 1: I'm someone who would disagree with that statement. Depends on

1022
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:34,720
Speaker 1: the type of credit. Well, no, I would just say,

1023
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:37,000
Speaker 1: like if there was a fixed amount of money, because

1024
00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:38,960
Speaker 1: like what you're describing is if there's a fixed amount

1025
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 1: of money and we get into a period where there's

1026
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:44,920
Speaker 1: a lot of credit expansion, but if you can't actually

1027
00:58:46,160 --> 00:58:51,160
Speaker 1: create more money, the governor is going to ultimately reset

1028
00:58:51,160 --> 00:58:53,880
Speaker 1: the bound. It's not going to let it get untethered

1029
00:58:53,960 --> 00:58:56,640
Speaker 1: from from reality. Well, in the fed's world, we create

1030
00:58:56,680 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 1: a lot of debt, and we can't create so much

1031
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:01,880
Speaker 1: debt that it's unsustainable. Well, rather than reducing the debt,

1032
00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:05,160
Speaker 1: which would be you coming off speed and like you

1033
00:59:05,240 --> 00:59:07,960
Speaker 1: ran hot, now I got to come back because you

1034
00:59:07,960 --> 00:59:10,040
Speaker 1: know a bunch of people got in debt that couldn't

1035
00:59:10,520 --> 00:59:14,240
Speaker 1: and and we come off and we slow down. Um.

1036
00:59:14,280 --> 00:59:18,160
Speaker 1: In the fed's world, they just keep applying more. They

1037
00:59:18,200 --> 00:59:22,440
Speaker 1: apply more dollars rather than reducing debt out of the system. Right. Um.

1038
00:59:22,480 --> 00:59:26,040
Speaker 1: And that in that world you get so far away

1039
00:59:26,120 --> 00:59:29,840
Speaker 1: from anything that is any semblance of reality where you

1040
00:59:29,960 --> 00:59:32,560
Speaker 1: actually become dependent on the drug, which in this case

1041
00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:36,560
Speaker 1: is debt. Did that system fails entirely if they do

1042
00:59:36,640 --> 00:59:39,240
Speaker 1: not supply more dollars to be able to service the

1043
00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:42,360
Speaker 1: existing debt level at all collapses? Um? And because the

1044
00:59:42,520 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 1: entire system is based on credit, Um, the system as

1045
00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:49,520
Speaker 1: a whole collapses. Um. So I do think that, I

1046
00:59:49,520 --> 00:59:53,480
Speaker 1: mean it is I think it what what actually is

1047
00:59:53,520 --> 00:59:55,760
Speaker 1: the state of play is different from that. I take

1048
00:59:55,800 --> 00:59:58,200
Speaker 1: speed and I run fast. That would be a world

1049
00:59:58,200 --> 01:00:00,320
Speaker 1: where we're on a fixed money supply and more money

1050
01:00:00,360 --> 01:00:03,920
Speaker 1: can't be created and credits created. Now like there's a governor,

1051
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:06,280
Speaker 1: which is the actual supply of money which can repay debt.

1052
01:00:06,720 --> 01:00:08,960
Speaker 1: So using this theme and to kind of wrap it

1053
01:00:09,000 --> 01:00:10,959
Speaker 1: up here and put a bow in this here, then

1054
01:00:11,640 --> 01:00:15,400
Speaker 1: the the patient, the economy is on heroin addicted to heroin,

1055
01:00:15,480 --> 01:00:18,920
Speaker 1: which is money printing by the FED, and the patient's terminal.

1056
01:00:19,720 --> 01:00:21,480
Speaker 1: The only way to keep them alive is to keep printing.

1057
01:00:21,520 --> 01:00:25,080
Speaker 1: And once they keep printing and the patient dies. Yeah, Well,

1058
01:00:25,240 --> 01:00:27,640
Speaker 1: in another way that I would think about it is

1059
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:32,680
Speaker 1: that you have to quit the drug, or you have

1060
01:00:34,720 --> 01:00:36,120
Speaker 1: If you quit the drug, you're gonna go through a

1061
01:00:36,120 --> 01:00:38,560
Speaker 1: period of withdrawal and that's not gonna be fun, and

1062
01:00:38,640 --> 01:00:42,800
Speaker 1: maybe even die and maybe maybe even die, but you

1063
01:00:42,840 --> 01:00:45,600
Speaker 1: have certain death if you continue to do it right.

1064
01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:52,400
Speaker 1: And that that is the you know, kind of probably

1065
01:00:52,440 --> 01:00:55,320
Speaker 1: the best analogy, And the certainty of that outcome is

1066
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:58,280
Speaker 1: almost the same as the certainty of bitcoin's fixed supply.

1067
01:00:59,600 --> 01:01:02,520
Speaker 1: Four people that get far enough down that rabbit and

1068
01:01:03,200 --> 01:01:07,560
Speaker 1: um that in a in a less dystopian way to

1069
01:01:07,560 --> 01:01:12,320
Speaker 1: think about It's just like people inherently know that they

1070
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:16,760
Speaker 1: have a problem. They know it's a problem that their

1071
01:01:16,800 --> 01:01:20,720
Speaker 1: money purchases less over time, that everything around them goes

1072
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:28,640
Speaker 1: up in value, and humans instinctively Darwinian survival, survival of

1073
01:01:28,680 --> 01:01:31,240
Speaker 1: the fittest. I recognize I got a problem. I recognize

1074
01:01:31,240 --> 01:01:34,520
Speaker 1: a need a solution. You know it's hot outside. Let's

1075
01:01:34,520 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 1: build a house and put air conditioning in it. Right,

1076
01:01:36,840 --> 01:01:42,600
Speaker 1: that's a solution. Um, My money continually degrades and degrades,

1077
01:01:42,640 --> 01:01:46,520
Speaker 1: and prices are going up. I need to solve that problem.

1078
01:01:46,640 --> 01:01:54,520
Speaker 1: Um that it's a dilemma. And people who adapt will

1079
01:01:54,560 --> 01:01:59,360
Speaker 1: do best than people who failed to adapt. And the

1080
01:01:59,440 --> 01:02:03,240
Speaker 1: first east is knowing where to focus energy. Like not

1081
01:02:03,280 --> 01:02:05,880
Speaker 1: everybody wants to understand, because that's something else I say, like,

1082
01:02:06,240 --> 01:02:08,400
Speaker 1: you can't help somebody understand bitcoin. He doesn't want to

1083
01:02:08,480 --> 01:02:12,160
Speaker 1: understand it. But that somebody then who says like I

1084
01:02:12,240 --> 01:02:14,760
Speaker 1: want to try to understand this, Like they typically make

1085
01:02:14,800 --> 01:02:16,880
Speaker 1: a few classes of errors, are like and I'm not

1086
01:02:16,880 --> 01:02:18,400
Speaker 1: gonna be able to understand this, and they kind of

1087
01:02:18,400 --> 01:02:22,280
Speaker 1: shut down. Um, that's probably the most common. But that

1088
01:02:24,000 --> 01:02:27,000
Speaker 1: if people have a roadmap, which is if you want

1089
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:33,200
Speaker 1: to understand this. The reason why it's valuable is that

1090
01:02:33,280 --> 01:02:35,840
Speaker 1: it's engineered because another critical distinction of it was that

1091
01:02:36,440 --> 01:02:42,760
Speaker 1: bitcoin is capable of facilitating direct commerce, um that most

1092
01:02:42,800 --> 01:02:46,560
Speaker 1: inflation hedges cannot, an equity index can, a piece of

1093
01:02:46,600 --> 01:02:50,200
Speaker 1: real estate, can a piece of gold functionaling can't, but

1094
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:52,880
Speaker 1: that most people do not know the roadmap. And that's

1095
01:02:52,920 --> 01:02:54,880
Speaker 1: really kind of It's like, look, I want to help

1096
01:02:54,880 --> 01:02:57,600
Speaker 1: people understand inflation. I want to help people understand why

1097
01:02:58,280 --> 01:03:00,280
Speaker 1: the direction of bitcoin, even though I don't like talking

1098
01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:02,240
Speaker 1: about the price of bitcoin hot and I think about

1099
01:03:02,240 --> 01:03:04,400
Speaker 1: its purchasing power, like we all still live in a

1100
01:03:04,440 --> 01:03:06,840
Speaker 1: dollar world. My dollar is the unit of account and

1101
01:03:07,440 --> 01:03:10,560
Speaker 1: it's you know, kind of it was nonsensible to to

1102
01:03:10,680 --> 01:03:15,439
Speaker 1: run from that, but that people intuitively know that that

1103
01:03:15,480 --> 01:03:19,160
Speaker 1: there's a problem. They generally don't know where to start

1104
01:03:19,680 --> 01:03:23,400
Speaker 1: when it comes to trying to understand bitcoin, and that

1105
01:03:23,800 --> 01:03:26,000
Speaker 1: if you are out there and you recognize that it's

1106
01:03:26,000 --> 01:03:29,080
Speaker 1: a problem, then you intuitively know you need a solution

1107
01:03:29,560 --> 01:03:32,840
Speaker 1: and it's well worth the time to evaluate whether bitcoin

1108
01:03:33,080 --> 01:03:36,800
Speaker 1: is or isn't uh, And that it's actually a lot

1109
01:03:36,800 --> 01:03:40,800
Speaker 1: more manageable if you've got a roadmap, if you have

1110
01:03:41,040 --> 01:03:46,680
Speaker 1: a a logically ordered help me understand not necessarily everything

1111
01:03:46,720 --> 01:03:51,280
Speaker 1: about the commuter science of the cryptography or the distributed systems,

1112
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:55,120
Speaker 1: but starting at the y and then kind of working

1113
01:03:55,160 --> 01:03:57,320
Speaker 1: down the rabbit hole from there. The thing I would

1114
01:03:57,320 --> 01:03:59,120
Speaker 1: say this to add on to that and encourage people

1115
01:03:59,120 --> 01:04:02,360
Speaker 1: listening is, UM, in order to be successful in anything,

1116
01:04:02,480 --> 01:04:05,480
Speaker 1: sports or business or investing, you have to find your edge,

1117
01:04:05,960 --> 01:04:07,760
Speaker 1: Like you have to figure out what what do I

1118
01:04:07,800 --> 01:04:10,440
Speaker 1: have that most people don't have with investing or business,

1119
01:04:10,440 --> 01:04:12,280
Speaker 1: Like what is it that I know that most people

1120
01:04:12,320 --> 01:04:14,720
Speaker 1: don't understand? Like what are they missing? Right? And so

1121
01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:17,320
Speaker 1: in a free market, UM, if we do a trade,

1122
01:04:17,560 --> 01:04:19,400
Speaker 1: both sides have to believe they're getting the better deal.

1123
01:04:19,560 --> 01:04:23,000
Speaker 1: And so what is it about bitcoin that people are

1124
01:04:23,000 --> 01:04:25,360
Speaker 1: willing to sell their bitcoin? They don't understand that I

1125
01:04:25,440 --> 01:04:27,479
Speaker 1: might be able to do some research and figure out

1126
01:04:27,720 --> 01:04:29,600
Speaker 1: and I think that I'm getting the better deal and buy.

1127
01:04:29,680 --> 01:04:32,320
Speaker 1: And so for someone like like us, we've spent a

1128
01:04:32,360 --> 01:04:34,560
Speaker 1: lot of time, we see the roadmap kind of what

1129
01:04:34,600 --> 01:04:37,280
Speaker 1: you're saying, It's like we see the opportunity. We can

1130
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:39,720
Speaker 1: see what people are missing. And so I think if

1131
01:04:39,720 --> 01:04:42,520
Speaker 1: people do that research, they can gain that edge. They

1132
01:04:42,520 --> 01:04:44,320
Speaker 1: can see the roadmap. They can see what people are

1133
01:04:44,320 --> 01:04:46,480
Speaker 1: missing and they could be on the receiving into that

1134
01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:49,960
Speaker 1: trade zone. UM. Good point. Yeah, And I think just

1135
01:04:50,000 --> 01:04:54,360
Speaker 1: to quickly expand on that, what analogy there? Maybe not analogy,

1136
01:04:54,360 --> 01:04:57,520
Speaker 1: but why don't I have to explained that is a

1137
01:04:57,560 --> 01:05:00,280
Speaker 1: lot A lot of people think that pick it's too

1138
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:04,200
Speaker 1: complicated to understand, um, and and so they don't attempt

1139
01:05:04,280 --> 01:05:07,320
Speaker 1: to go down. That's almost a defense mechanism, like if

1140
01:05:07,360 --> 01:05:10,400
Speaker 1: I try and fail, what does that say about me? Um?

1141
01:05:10,440 --> 01:05:12,840
Speaker 1: And what I like to reinforce people is that it's

1142
01:05:12,840 --> 01:05:15,480
Speaker 1: not an i Q test, it's a common sense one UM.

1143
01:05:15,520 --> 01:05:18,160
Speaker 1: And that's it's a lot less complicated or a lot

1144
01:05:18,240 --> 01:05:22,160
Speaker 1: less complex. Um. Then then it seems at the surface.

1145
01:05:22,840 --> 01:05:28,120
Speaker 1: And but that if you wanted to train yourself to

1146
01:05:28,200 --> 01:05:33,360
Speaker 1: be a doctor ten years, uh, if you really want

1147
01:05:33,400 --> 01:05:36,080
Speaker 1: to develop craft, any craft, get a black belt in

1148
01:05:36,160 --> 01:05:41,040
Speaker 1: jiu jitsu ten years yeah. Um. Obviously not many people

1149
01:05:41,080 --> 01:05:44,040
Speaker 1: get to be an NBA athlete or an MLB or

1150
01:05:44,040 --> 01:05:45,880
Speaker 1: a pro athlete, or even make it to the miners,

1151
01:05:46,320 --> 01:05:48,200
Speaker 1: or even get to play in college for that matter.

1152
01:05:48,560 --> 01:05:51,240
Speaker 1: But just think about an athlete that plays in college.

1153
01:05:52,560 --> 01:05:54,320
Speaker 1: They started playing that support when they were eight years

1154
01:05:54,320 --> 01:05:58,240
Speaker 1: old takes a decade. Um. If you want to understand

1155
01:05:58,280 --> 01:06:03,920
Speaker 1: that point, it takes some intention. Um maybe it's forty

1156
01:06:03,920 --> 01:06:06,400
Speaker 1: hours to start making sense of it. Maybe it's a

1157
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:11,360
Speaker 1: hundred And someone might say, um, that's a lot of time.

1158
01:06:11,400 --> 01:06:14,240
Speaker 1: Where am I going to find forty hours? Hundred hours?

1159
01:06:14,960 --> 01:06:18,520
Speaker 1: But when you start to think about, well, if I

1160
01:06:18,520 --> 01:06:21,280
Speaker 1: want to understand anything, how to do anything very well,

1161
01:06:21,520 --> 01:06:26,200
Speaker 1: if I want to do a craft years that if

1162
01:06:26,280 --> 01:06:33,160
Speaker 1: bitcoin is or has the potential to be the form

1163
01:06:33,200 --> 01:06:36,000
Speaker 1: of money in the entire world, adopts that when you

1164
01:06:36,160 --> 01:06:42,280
Speaker 1: start to evaluate forty hours or hundred hours, for I

1165
01:06:42,280 --> 01:06:46,760
Speaker 1: could be clued into a massive advantage that most people

1166
01:06:47,240 --> 01:06:51,919
Speaker 1: do not understand. Um that there are there could not

1167
01:06:52,480 --> 01:06:58,200
Speaker 1: be anything more um worthy of that time, because it's like, well,

1168
01:06:58,200 --> 01:07:00,480
Speaker 1: what are you gonna do? You think that you can

1169
01:07:00,720 --> 01:07:04,000
Speaker 1: effectively invest in stocks with less than forty hours of time?

1170
01:07:04,320 --> 01:07:06,720
Speaker 1: And it's like, what we're talking about is a sea

1171
01:07:06,800 --> 01:07:08,760
Speaker 1: change in the form of money that everyone uses in

1172
01:07:08,800 --> 01:07:11,720
Speaker 1: the world, and that is the bedrock of the economic system.

1173
01:07:11,880 --> 01:07:14,640
Speaker 1: Um that when you start to evaluate is it worth

1174
01:07:14,720 --> 01:07:18,080
Speaker 1: the time? If that is, if that is the asymmetry

1175
01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:21,640
Speaker 1: that is involved, that that forty hours really isn't that

1176
01:07:21,800 --> 01:07:24,960
Speaker 1: much or a hundred hours isn't that much, and it

1177
01:07:25,160 --> 01:07:26,960
Speaker 1: is well worth the time, and that if if people

1178
01:07:27,000 --> 01:07:30,360
Speaker 1: spend that time, they will be able to discern um.

1179
01:07:30,400 --> 01:07:32,560
Speaker 1: And I think that that's the hardest thing is to

1180
01:07:32,600 --> 01:07:35,120
Speaker 1: invest the time, but then also to have the confidence

1181
01:07:35,120 --> 01:07:36,920
Speaker 1: that if you do invest the time that on the

1182
01:07:36,960 --> 01:07:40,280
Speaker 1: other side you'll um, you'll come away with you know,

1183
01:07:41,280 --> 01:07:42,880
Speaker 1: you don't have to necessarily come to say answer that.

1184
01:07:43,040 --> 01:07:45,960
Speaker 1: But but what I would say to people is it's

1185
01:07:45,960 --> 01:07:49,200
Speaker 1: worth the investment to know. I don't know anybody who's

1186
01:07:49,200 --> 01:07:51,760
Speaker 1: ever put in the investment of time and walked and

1187
01:07:51,760 --> 01:07:54,600
Speaker 1: said nope, it's all scamp like, no, no one's ever

1188
01:07:54,640 --> 01:07:56,600
Speaker 1: come away from doing the work and doing the research.

1189
01:07:56,960 --> 01:07:59,479
Speaker 1: I would say that sounds overwhelming to a lot of people.

1190
01:07:59,560 --> 01:08:05,000
Speaker 1: So just read Parker's papers. Yeah, but that's all. That's

1191
01:08:05,000 --> 01:08:07,480
Speaker 1: also why I wrote the papers the way I do,

1192
01:08:07,920 --> 01:08:10,960
Speaker 1: which is some people genuinely do not have And and

1193
01:08:11,040 --> 01:08:14,200
Speaker 1: this is also you know, when I say that, like

1194
01:08:14,880 --> 01:08:17,040
Speaker 1: someone doesn't set out and say I'm gonna spend a

1195
01:08:17,120 --> 01:08:19,559
Speaker 1: hundred hours, I'm gonna make the hundred hours commitment. But

1196
01:08:19,680 --> 01:08:23,320
Speaker 1: that uh, it's a commitment to read a book, you know,

1197
01:08:23,360 --> 01:08:26,680
Speaker 1: and a lot of people genuinely like they have a

1198
01:08:26,760 --> 01:08:29,280
Speaker 1: lot of ship going on in their life and picking

1199
01:08:29,360 --> 01:08:32,000
Speaker 1: up and reading a book about bitcoin might be like

1200
01:08:32,720 --> 01:08:36,040
Speaker 1: not enough hours in the day, right, Um, But with

1201
01:08:36,080 --> 01:08:40,800
Speaker 1: my pieces, I've written them in such a way where

1202
01:08:40,800 --> 01:08:45,479
Speaker 1: people can they typically have common questions, right, and people

1203
01:08:45,520 --> 01:08:47,599
Speaker 1: can sit down and read an essay in thirty minutes,

1204
01:08:47,640 --> 01:08:49,240
Speaker 1: and it's not as big of a commitment as reading

1205
01:08:49,240 --> 01:08:52,040
Speaker 1: a book, um, but it does go through the fundamentals,

1206
01:08:52,040 --> 01:08:53,559
Speaker 1: and it's just peeling back the layer of the onion.

1207
01:08:53,600 --> 01:08:56,439
Speaker 1: So it's like it's literally getting there and reading one

1208
01:08:56,560 --> 01:09:01,120
Speaker 1: article and spending thirty minutes and then if someone's intrigued,

1209
01:09:01,600 --> 01:09:05,240
Speaker 1: read the second thirty minutes. You know, maybe then pick

1210
01:09:05,320 --> 01:09:08,720
Speaker 1: up a book. If it's starting to make sense, um,

1211
01:09:08,800 --> 01:09:11,360
Speaker 1: that it doesn't have to be all or nothing, but

1212
01:09:11,520 --> 01:09:15,160
Speaker 1: that the first step is starting to consume something fundamental

1213
01:09:15,520 --> 01:09:19,840
Speaker 1: about bitcoin rather than you know, what do people say

1214
01:09:19,880 --> 01:09:21,760
Speaker 1: the price is going to do? Like that's you know,

1215
01:09:22,160 --> 01:09:25,599
Speaker 1: cart before the horse. So we'll link to all Parker's

1216
01:09:25,680 --> 01:09:28,000
Speaker 1: papers in the show notes down below and read those

1217
01:09:28,000 --> 01:09:31,080
Speaker 1: one by one. Thank you for taking the time to

1218
01:09:31,080 --> 01:09:35,680
Speaker 1: talk today, um. Unchained dot com unchained Capital. It's the

1219
01:09:35,680 --> 01:09:38,280
Speaker 1: best place to secure bitcoin. That's what I use and

1220
01:09:38,360 --> 01:09:39,840
Speaker 1: so you should check it out. We'll link to that

1221
01:09:39,880 --> 01:09:45,760
Speaker 1: as well. Um No, but the series is on the

1222
01:09:45,760 --> 01:09:49,080
Speaker 1: blog and unchained dot com, so you got under resources.

1223
01:09:49,120 --> 01:09:51,920
Speaker 1: It's under of the blog and then the graduate and

1224
01:09:51,960 --> 01:09:56,200
Speaker 1: suddenly series abbreviated for GTS. People can find me on Twitter.

1225
01:09:56,680 --> 01:10:00,880
Speaker 1: Parker A. Lewis my Twitter handle and then yeah, we're

1226
01:10:00,920 --> 01:10:03,320
Speaker 1: here in Austin hanging out the big Quinn Commins and

1227
01:10:03,320 --> 01:10:05,599
Speaker 1: Mars t FTC studio. So if you're ever in Austin,

1228
01:10:06,240 --> 01:10:09,000
Speaker 1: um be sure to look us up. Yeah alright, well

1229
01:10:09,040 --> 01:10:11,240
Speaker 1: linked all that down below. Thank you so much. All right,

1230
01:10:11,240 --> 01:10:11,679
Speaker 1: thanks Mark,