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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. On

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Speaker 1: the Biden front, though, this is very very important news,

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Speaker 1: which is that the President Biden, for what the fifth

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Speaker 1: time now in his presidency, i want to say, or

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Speaker 1: at least third major high profile time, has said now

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Speaker 1: definitively that he, as the American president, would militarily defend

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Speaker 1: Taiwan with US troops, and then the White House changing

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Speaker 1: their response or changing contradicting the President after he has

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Speaker 1: said that now publicly. So let's take a listen to

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Speaker 1: exactly what he said, and they'll tell you what the

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Speaker 1: what the White House said after, But would US forces

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Speaker 1: defend the island, Yes, if in fact there was an

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Speaker 1: unprecedent an attack. After our interview of White House official

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Speaker 1: told US US policy has not changed. Officially, the US

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Speaker 1: will not say whether American forces would defend Taiwan. But

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Speaker 1: the Commander in chief had a view of his own.

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Speaker 1: So unlike Ukraine, to be clear, sir, US forces, US

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Speaker 1: men and women would defend Taiwan in the event of

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Speaker 1: a Chinese invasion. Yes, he said it, as clear as day.

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Speaker 1: He said it. He said it now to retire, not

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Speaker 1: leave himself. Yeah, any women room, right, because the first

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Speaker 1: response was like, in the event of what are you

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Speaker 1: saying on the president attack? Yeah, okay, Well maybe you

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Speaker 1: could spin that as like, oh, well this attack is

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Speaker 1: I didn't meet the standard of unprecedented. But he's like, so,

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Speaker 1: let's be clear, unlike Ukraine, where we didn't commit this

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Speaker 1: on the ground, with Taiwan, you would, and he says

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Speaker 1: flat out yes. Right. Then the White House once against

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Speaker 1: no policy has let's changed, aguity all of this, the

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Speaker 1: US maintains strategic This is from the US, from the

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Speaker 1: State Department, and from the White House quote, the US

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Speaker 1: maintained strategic ambuity on whether American forces would defend Taiwan.

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Speaker 1: The Taiwan Relations Ate Act up obligates the US to

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Speaker 1: help equip Taiwan to defend itself. That's not congruent with

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Speaker 1: what he said. No, this is like whenever he did

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Speaker 1: the by God, this man cannot remain in power, and

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Speaker 1: that for the White House, it's like, oh no, this

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Speaker 1: is not a declaration of regime change in Russia. Really yeah,

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Speaker 1: but he's the president, Like, he's the one who gets

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Speaker 1: to decide the policy. As far as I'm concerned. President

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Speaker 1: Biden now has made it very clear exactly what he's

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Speaker 1: going to do in Taiwan. And the reason why this

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Speaker 1: is so dangerous is mixed signals when you're dealing with

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Speaker 1: nuclear powers, is the exact opposite of what you want

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Speaker 1: to do. Okay, you said you're going to defend Taiwan.

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Speaker 1: Stick to it. Then that's now the policy of the

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Speaker 1: US government. Now you should maintain that, and at the

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Speaker 1: very least let's get the possible deterred effect that that

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Speaker 1: may have in the future. But now, if you're shishingping,

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Speaker 1: you're like what is the policy? Who is running the government?

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Speaker 1: Because if I go, is Biden gonna do? Does he

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Speaker 1: even run the government? Is it the White House? Like

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Speaker 1: you know? I mean to them too, the idea that

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Speaker 1: the American president can say something and then be contradicted

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Speaker 1: by his own government. That makes no sense to the Chinese.

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Speaker 1: So they're like, I don't know what the hell is

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Speaker 1: happening here. I was actually after I read that piece

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Speaker 1: about like Biden wore and we don't want world War

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Speaker 1: three and all this stuff, I was like, okay, like

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Speaker 1: I've got some disagreements, but at least these things. And

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Speaker 1: then I saw this, I was like, what the hell

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Speaker 1: is going on here? I mean, this is insane. China

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Speaker 1: is not Russia. Like the people who think we could

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Speaker 1: do the same thing to China that we've done to

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Speaker 1: Russian like cut ourselves off economic you're smoking something because

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Speaker 1: the level of economic interdependence between US and China, forget

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Speaker 1: about it. Did we not learn this lesson during the

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Speaker 1: pandemic when it was like, oh, guess what we don't have? Mass,

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Speaker 1: guess what we don't have, like enough like materials for

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Speaker 1: the shots we don't have. We rely on them for

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Speaker 1: everything for gowns, for ppe, for everything. And you think

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Speaker 1: that we're anywhere close to being able to have the

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Speaker 1: same response with China that we have with Russia, that

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Speaker 1: is bananas. Not to mention how many Americans are out

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Speaker 1: there clamoring for a war with China, Like you want

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Speaker 1: to talk about World War three, let's talk about a

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Speaker 1: direct military conflict with China, which is exactly what he

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Speaker 1: is floating, not just floating here saying definitively that he

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Speaker 1: is on board for. So this is insane. And then

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Speaker 1: you add to it the total contradiction between what he's

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Speaker 1: saying then what the White House is trying to spin

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Speaker 1: and what it's a disaster. My phot is just like, look,

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Speaker 1: if that's a policy, then you need to orient all

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Speaker 1: US forces towards that pot This might you know, Bridge Colby,

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Speaker 1: who we've had on the show, has discussed this. He's like, look,

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Speaker 1: if that's actually the policy, He's like, you have to

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Speaker 1: change literally everything about the US military, about the US alliance,

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Speaker 1: about our economy. You need to prepare like all of

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Speaker 1: this because otherwise, if you stick by this policy exactly

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Speaker 1: for the reasons that you're saying, you could both possibly

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Speaker 1: lose a war. With China and you could suffer complete

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Speaker 1: economic I mean, it would be an economic catastrophe regardless,

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Speaker 1: just because of inter dependence with Taiwan. Absolutely. The other

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Speaker 1: problem too, is that the spokesperson for the Chinese government

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Speaker 1: obviously they see this and they're immediately saying that this

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Speaker 1: is severely jeopardizing China US relations stability and the Taiwan straight.

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Speaker 1: China is firmly opposed to this. And another problem is

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Speaker 1: that I was reading actually very recently that ever since

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Speaker 1: the Pelosi visit to Taiwan, once again, the Chinese government

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Speaker 1: does not believe that the US government had nothing to

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Speaker 1: do with that visit. They're like, I don't believe that

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Speaker 1: President Biden didn't want her to go. I don't really

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Speaker 1: believe it either. I don't really know what I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think that she is enough of a narcissist to go.

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Speaker 1: I certainly don't blame China for reading it that way,

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Speaker 1: because I'm not convinced that that Biden didn't green light

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Speaker 1: it either, right, So I don't know anyway. If I'm

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Speaker 1: the Chinese and I grew up in an authoritarian system,

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Speaker 1: I'm like, I straight up just don't believe like so

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Speaker 1: called co equal branches of government, So I get it

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Speaker 1: from their perspective, and at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: their perspective matters equally as much as ours does. Well,

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Speaker 1: there has apparently been almost a near total diplomatic cutoff

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Speaker 1: between Beijing and Washington ever since then. You know, remember

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Speaker 1: when they fired those missiles into around the Taiwan straight

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Speaker 1: after the Pelosi visit, there was no military deconfliction pick

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Speaker 1: up by the Chinese military. So once again, like, if

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Speaker 1: you want that policy, I think that's fine, but then

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Speaker 1: you need to be one hundred percent committed to that,

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Speaker 1: and then we should at very least get the detern

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Speaker 1: effect and prepare the US armed forces and the US

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Speaker 1: military and the US population for the democratic buy in

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Speaker 1: if such thing we're going to happen. But you can't

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Speaker 1: just offhand say these things like you did with regime

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Speaker 1: change and then also have the White House directly contradict you.

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Speaker 1: It's incredibly dangerous for the future. I really, I really

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Speaker 1: think it's it's so it's more destabilizing as if he

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Speaker 1: wouldn't as if he didn't just commit to it in

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Speaker 1: this yeah place, And I mean, I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: fine in any regard even if we were like aggressively

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Speaker 1: preparing our military or economy or whatever. We have taken

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Speaker 1: some small tepid steps, like the Chips Act, towards being

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Speaker 1: more economically you know, independent. That's good, but we are

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Speaker 1: nowhere there. And I don't want a war with China.

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Speaker 1: I don't want World War three. That's the bottom line here.

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Speaker 1: And you know, even the policy that we've we've sort

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Speaker 1: of ramped up weapon shipments to Taiwan. I mean, now

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Speaker 1: they feel like, okay, we've got a playbook with what

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Speaker 1: we did in Ukraine. Which again, even that thinking that

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Speaker 1: is insane because China and Russia totally different situation, but

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Speaker 1: that seems to be what they're thinking. So they've ramped

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Speaker 1: up weaponshipments to Taiwan. Even that is a really double

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Speaker 1: edged sword. Like I understand the impulse of like, let's

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Speaker 1: arm them so that they are really prepared in case

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Speaker 1: there is some sort of invasion. But the other thing

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Speaker 1: that can happen here, which may have been what happened

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Speaker 1: with Ukraine, is that China feels like, oh, since we're

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Speaker 1: arming them and we're shipping them all these weapons making

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Speaker 1: more difficult for them, It's like we got to go

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Speaker 1: now or never else it's going to be more difficult,

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Speaker 1: because that's what some people think happened basically with Ukraine

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Speaker 1: when we started arming them, when we started training them,

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Speaker 1: there was a sense of putin of like, I've got

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Speaker 1: to act now before they get further down this road

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Speaker 1: and it becomes impossible to take over this country. Ultimately,

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Speaker 1: I think it's possible. I actually think it probably would

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Speaker 1: have much less to do with us and a lot

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Speaker 1: more to do with China and domestic political conditions there.

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Speaker 1: I don't really think it would have as much to

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Speaker 1: do with us or I mean, we've been arming the

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Speaker 1: Taiwanese since like nineteen seventy three, so and nothing we're

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Speaker 1: doing right now is unprecedented. More, what it would be

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Speaker 1: is if they genuinely believe that their moment is now

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Speaker 1: and they have no other choice, and also to stick

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Speaker 1: with the twenty twenty five plan and the one hundred

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Speaker 1: year anniversary of like the CCP and Mao's you know,

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Speaker 1: relolution or whatever. I think it would have a lot

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Speaker 1: more to do with that. And it's also if he's

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Speaker 1: especially had economic collapse and they needed the population in

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Speaker 1: China to be united around something. I mean, people forget this,

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Speaker 1: Like the Chinese population actually does really agree with the

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Speaker 1: Chinese government on Taiwan. It's an uncomfortable truth, but it's true.

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Speaker 1: It's like kind of in the way that you know,

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Speaker 1: Russians believe that Ukraine really is an independent country. Most

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Speaker 1: Russians believe that. Most Chinese also believe that about Taiwan.

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Speaker 1: Like the idea that they don't have domestic political support

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Speaker 1: on this is very, very uh misguided. So they have

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Speaker 1: their own domestic political concerns. I think that would probably

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Speaker 1: fuel their thinking more than anything. Look, I honestly have

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Speaker 1: no idea. I do think they probably had to learn

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Speaker 1: something from Ukraine. I mean, they have to learn that

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Speaker 1: it wouldn't be costless, that they couldn't just quote unquote

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Speaker 1: get away with it. So anyway, I have no idea. Troubling,

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Speaker 1: troubling you leave it at that next piece that we

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Speaker 1: wanted to get to here. So last week there was

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Speaker 1: a big report in the New York Times. They got

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Speaker 1: the scoop about how the founder of Patagonia, who's this

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Speaker 1: kind of like hippy ish guy who was like a

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Speaker 1: rock climber and sort of you know, accidental. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean I was not like to smear him, to smear

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Speaker 1: the New York Times telling you that they're bad at

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Speaker 1: their job. So this guy decides he's getting older, and

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Speaker 1: he's trying to figure out what he wants to do

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Speaker 1: with his company, and he ultimately decides that through a

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Speaker 1: series of mechanisms, I'll get into it in a moment,

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Speaker 1: his family's going to keep basically control of it. And

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Speaker 1: it's a private company, it's not public company, and all

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Speaker 1: of the proceeds are going to be donated to this

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Speaker 1: nonprofit which is meant to flight fight climate change and

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Speaker 1: to support the environment. I think he cares a lot

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Speaker 1: about like conservation of wild spaces and things like that

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Speaker 1: as well, which makes sense is his background as a

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Speaker 1: rock climber. So New York Times writes up this glowing article. Again,

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Speaker 1: this is nothing against this guy, who I have no

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Speaker 1: reason to believe that he has ill intentions here or whatever.

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Speaker 1: But there was a really explicit effort to pretend that

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Speaker 1: there were no tax benefits to him or the family

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Speaker 1: from handling the company in this way. Gun put the

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Speaker 1: article up on the screen. Here it says billionaire no more.

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Speaker 1: Patagonia founder gives away the company. Here is the technical

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Speaker 1: specifics and how they describe it of how this is

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Speaker 1: all happening. They say, in August, the family irrevocably transferred

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Speaker 1: all the company's voting stock into a newly established entity

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Speaker 1: known as the Patagonia Purpose Trust. So that's the company

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Speaker 1: and the voting stock goes there. Then the trust, which

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Speaker 1: is going to be overseen by members of the family

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Speaker 1: and their close advisors, is intended in sure Patagonia makes

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Speaker 1: good on its commitment to run a socially responsible business

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Speaker 1: and to give away its profits. The Tweenyards, I think

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Speaker 1: is how you say it, I don't know, donated their

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Speaker 1: shares to a trust. The family will play about seventeen

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Speaker 1: point five million in taxes on the gift. Then they

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Speaker 1: donated the other ninety eight percent of Patagonia's common shares

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Speaker 1: to a nonprofit called the hold Fast Collective. It's a

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Speaker 1: five oh one C four, which they say allows it

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Speaker 1: to make unlimited political contributions. But the family received no

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Speaker 1: tax benefit for its donation. Okay, remember that line. Then

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Speaker 1: they go on to very explicitly draw contrast with another

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Speaker 1: big company gifting for political causes that they had previously covered,

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Speaker 1: but that one came from a right wing billionaire. So

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Speaker 1: then they say, Barry Seed, a Republican donor, is the

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Speaker 1: only other example in recent memory of a wealthy business

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Speaker 1: owner who gave away his company for philanthropic and political causes.

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Speaker 1: But he took a different approach in giving one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent of his company to a nonprofit, reaping an enormous

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Speaker 1: personal tax windfall as he made a one point six

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Speaker 1: billion dollar gift to fund conservative causes, including efforts to

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Speaker 1: stop action on climate change. Now, the reality is that

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Speaker 1: that Republican donor, whatever you think, and I don't like

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Speaker 1: the use that he is intending to put his funds to,

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Speaker 1: it was the same basic structure as what the Patagonia

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Speaker 1: did do. So the tax benefits that are accruing to

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Speaker 1: the Republican donor are the same ones that are accruing

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Speaker 1: to the Patagonia founder. Namely the fact that because he

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Speaker 1: used this mechanism, they don't have to recognize any of

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Speaker 1: the capital gains on this company, so the you know,

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Speaker 1: appreciation of value, all of that that would be a

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Speaker 1: huge tax hit that is all foregone, and they're able

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Speaker 1: to transfer it over with paying like very minimal taxes. Now,

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Speaker 1: it is true for both of these men by the way,

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Speaker 1: that because it's not going to a five oh one

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Speaker 1: c three where you could get a charitable tax deduction,

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Speaker 1: it is true that they are not maximizing their tax benefits,

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Speaker 1: but that's also true for the right wing donor. So

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Speaker 1: it's pretty pretty remarkable. And you know, they went out

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Speaker 1: of their way to get like quotes from people in

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Speaker 1: this Patagonia article saying like, oh, it's so amazing and

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Speaker 1: it's incredible that they're not benefiting from this and all

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Speaker 1: of this. Again, I don't have an issue personally with

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Speaker 1: saying like I support the the what this money is

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Speaker 1: going to, and I don't support what that money is

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Speaker 1: going to. But the fact that they just got the

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Speaker 1: story blatantly wrong is a real disservice to everyone. Oh,

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Speaker 1: it's completely ridiculous because everyone's like, oh, this is the

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Speaker 1: good you know, it's this is exactly Also, it just

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Speaker 1: shows you why it's very dangerous to play the good

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Speaker 1: billionaire bad billionaire game. It's like, no, they actually all

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Speaker 1: exploit the exact same loopholes in the tax code in

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Speaker 1: order to just benefit whatever cause that they want. So

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Speaker 1: once again, like you can think, yeah, it's great that

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Speaker 1: he avoided taxes in order to support climate change stuff.

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Speaker 1: But if you support that, then you also are supporting

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Speaker 1: the underlying mechanism through which the right wing billionaire gives

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Speaker 1: a billion six to the federalist society guy. So well

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Speaker 1: as that, as long as that loophole exists in the

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Speaker 1: tax code, it is going to be used for dueling

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Speaker 1: political purposes. And then you have to just be okay

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Speaker 1: with the fact that right wingers exist too amongst the

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Speaker 1: ultra wealthy. Well, and here's the thing. Bloomberg actually accurately

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Speaker 1: covered the story. Let's put that up on the screen

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Speaker 1: because I think it's important. And they go into the

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Speaker 1: details and the parallels between what the Patagonian dude and

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Speaker 1: the other dude did, and that it basically was some

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Speaker 1: you know, small details, was the same structure, and they

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Speaker 1: got the same tax benefits. And in fact, this allows

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Speaker 1: the Patagonia billionaire to skirt seven hundred million dollars in taxes.

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Speaker 1: And they had some good quotes in this article from

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Speaker 1: you know, an analyst and expert on sort of I

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Speaker 1: want to see an expert in like taxation and billionaires,

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Speaker 1: I guess, but I thought he put it well. He said,

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Speaker 1: we're letting people opt out of supporting all the expenses

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Speaker 1: of government to do whatever they want with their money.

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Speaker 1: This is a highly problematic from the point of view

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Speaker 1: of democracy, and it can mean a higher tax burden

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Speaker 1: for the rest of Americans. Using a five toh one

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Speaker 1: C four intrust lets him and his family continue to

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Speaker 1: effectively control the company. And they say, if someone wanted

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Speaker 1: to leave their votes behind after they die, we don't

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Speaker 1: let people do that. But through these organizations, they're doing

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Speaker 1: something similar, and their money is so much more powerful

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Speaker 1: than a single vote. So again I'm not saying that

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Speaker 1: these guys have like ill in ten or an Affarris

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Speaker 1: or whatever, but the bottom line is, rather than allowing

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Speaker 1: their assets and their estates to be taxed when they

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Speaker 1: pass and for those mass support seven hundred billion dollars

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Speaker 1: in this case, million dollars, sorry, not billion, seven hundred

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Speaker 1: million dollars in this case to go into government coffers

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Speaker 1: where there's a democratic process where we all get to

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Speaker 1: have a say in terms of what this money goes towards,

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Speaker 1: whether it's roads or bridges or schools or whatever. Instead,

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Speaker 1: they get to keep control over how this money ultimately

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Speaker 1: is used. And we've talked a lot on the show

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Speaker 1: about how you know the billionaire is controlling these social

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Speaker 1: causes and relying on the benevolent billionaire to fund your

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Speaker 1: causes ultimately very problematic and leads to all sorts of others.

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Speaker 1: You see this with Bill Gates in the public health

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Speaker 1: sector as one example. Yeah, of course, exactly, Bill Gates

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Speaker 1: in public health. I mean, so many of these guys,

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Speaker 1: you Dominio, the Waltons, and water rights in Montana, and

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Speaker 1: there's all kinds of insanity that's happening around this country.

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Speaker 1: And this is exactly the issue, which is that if

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Speaker 1: you want to defend this, okay, be my guest, but

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Speaker 1: then just understand the exact tax mechanism which is going

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Speaker 1: to be used by everyone, every billionaire in the United

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Speaker 1: States in order to dodge taxes to just basically donate

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Speaker 1: to whatever cause they believe in. Also, this is the

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Speaker 1: more important one to me. He's actually avoiding the forty

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Speaker 1: percent gift tax on if he was going to give

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Speaker 1: this money to his heirs because the demand is a

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Speaker 1: eighty three years old, so his heirs now have to

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Speaker 1: pay nothing. And they didn't build Patagonia, okay, they were

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Speaker 1: just there along there for the ride. So now they

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Speaker 1: get the social cachet of being a big spender in

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Speaker 1: the Democratic Party and they don't have fanny taxes. That's crazy.

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Speaker 1: And I was reading an article this morning about the

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Speaker 1: La Times. This billionaire guy buys the La Times. His

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Speaker 1: daughter is like some crazy social justice lib and is

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Speaker 1: literally making the La Times like change its style guide language.

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Speaker 1: And they don't know what to do because they're like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean it's the owner's daughter likes and this is

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Speaker 1: a huge paper, like in Los Angeles. So and at

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Speaker 1: the time everyone hailed it. They're like, oh, Patrick, I

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Speaker 1: forgot I don't know how to pronounce his last name.

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Speaker 1: He's bailing out the La Times like he's coming into

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Speaker 1: the say. It was like this is the price that

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Speaker 1: we pay, yeah for this total control? Like do you

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Speaker 1: want the guy's daughter to be controlling the style guide

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Speaker 1: for a city, the second city, the largest city in America?

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Speaker 1: That's nuts. Same thing with this guy and whoever his

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Speaker 1: kids are, I don't know his kids. Well, the way

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Speaker 1: you put it is really good, Like just stay on

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Speaker 1: in the business of playing the good billionaire bad billionaire game.

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Speaker 1: Just understand that all of these mostly men with this

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Speaker 1: large amount of money it distorts democracy. Okay. Mackenzie Bezos though,

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Speaker 1: is a good example. Absolutely, she gets all this night

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Speaker 1: from his divorce. She rules left wing rye. She is

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Speaker 1: the single largest amount of money given the way our

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Speaker 1: system is structured is incredibly distortive and incredibly you just

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Speaker 1: want to talk about thrust of democracy, Like the fact

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Speaker 1: that they can create this whole separate ecosystem that none

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Speaker 1: of us has any say and whatsoever, like that is

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Speaker 1: a real threat to democracy. So yeah, not the New

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Speaker 1: York Times finest moment in how they covered these things,

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Speaker 1: and it really is funny. I encourage you to go

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Speaker 1: and read the article that I think was actually a

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Speaker 1: very good article written by Ken Vogel about the right

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Speaker 1: wing dude. Compare it to the article the Fawning not

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Speaker 1: critical at all, didn't raise any of these questions article

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Speaker 1: about the Patagonia dude. Like, go and compare them side

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Speaker 1: to side. The types of quotes that they got on

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Speaker 1: the one hand versus the other hand, and the way

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Speaker 1: they presented and everything. It is like the definition of propaganda.

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Speaker 1: And you can see it. This is an actual, like

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Speaker 1: one of the most perfect, glaring examples of fakeness. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think it's important that you set it up to

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Speaker 1: because everybody in the left wing media just doesn't want

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Speaker 1: to talk about it. Yeah, these are like, well we

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Speaker 1: support the cause. It's like it doesn't matter. Well, you

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Speaker 1: reported something that was actually factually incorrect. I actually the

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Speaker 1: person I reached out to, I don't think he would

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Speaker 1: mind me saying this, But because he had done a

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Speaker 1: lot of reporting on the right wing donation, David Siroto

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Speaker 1: with Lever Yeah, and I was like, is this because

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Speaker 1: this looks like the same structure, So are they just

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Speaker 1: getting this wrong? And he checked in with you know,

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Speaker 1: the people that he relies on to understand the complicated

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Speaker 1: tax mechanics. He's like, no, they just blatantly got it wrong. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So like even putting like the biased cover just like

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Speaker 1: this just factually incorrect. The way they presented pretty astonishing.

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Speaker 1: Just another reminder these people are bad at their jobs. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: bottom line exactly. It's actually shocking. Let's get to the

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Speaker 1: housing market in particular and put this first piece up

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Speaker 1: on the screen. So so brand new numbers underscoring just

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Speaker 1: how expensive it is getting for people to buy homes. Why,

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Speaker 1: because mortgage interest rates are skyrocketing along with the fed's actions.

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Speaker 1: This tweet says the average thirty year fixed mortgage rate

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Speaker 1: jumps to six point four to two percent. That is

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Speaker 1: the highest reading since two thousand and eight. Let's take

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Speaker 1: a look at this next piece, which is similar. The

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Speaker 1: average monthly mortgage payment in the US has shot up

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Speaker 1: thanks to the FED. This is from our friend Joe Wisenthal.

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Speaker 1: He says that might push more people into renting. If

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Speaker 1: I were a landlord, I might be tempted to raise

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Speaker 1: the rent even more. By the way, when you look

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Speaker 1: at these numbers, so the monthly mortgage payment for someone

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Speaker 1: who's buying a home is now over two thousand dollars.

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Speaker 1: That has more than doubled since March twenty twenty. So

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Speaker 1: just two years ago, less than two years ago, if

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Speaker 1: you were buying house, your the average monthly mortgage payment

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Speaker 1: for someone buying a home was one thousand dollars and

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Speaker 1: I was two thousand dollars. I mean, that is insane.

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Speaker 1: The escalation. Their calculations based on the median existing home price,

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Speaker 1: average thirty year mortgage rate and assuming a twenty percent

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Speaker 1: down payment. And at the same time, you can see

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Speaker 1: the way that you know housing becoming so expensive means

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Speaker 1: that more people are forced to rent. Let's go ahead

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Speaker 1: and put this next piece up on the screen. Guess

429
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:12,639
Speaker 1: what Rising rent prices are keeping inflation high. So we

430
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 1: covered this when we got the last inflation numbers that

431
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,040
Speaker 1: it's significant. Part of why we continue to see rising

432
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:23,679
Speaker 1: inflation numbers is because rents continue to escalate. Shelter prices

433
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 1: rose zero point seven percent in August. That is the

434
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 1: biggest monthly jump since ninety one, so huge numbers there.

435
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:32,879
Speaker 1: One of the biggest drivers of inflation, they say, has

436
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 1: been higher rent prices. According to data from Zillo, the

437
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:39,680
Speaker 1: typical US monthly rent was two ninety dollars in August.

438
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 1: That is up twelve point three percent from just a

439
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 1: year before. That is much higher than it was before

440
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 1: the pandemic. In February twenty twenty, the nation's average rent

441
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 1: was one thousand, six hundred and sixty dollars. So even

442
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,679
Speaker 1: though big picture, in a majority of markets that are

443
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 1: being tracked now, these sort of like you know, housing price,

444
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 1: like the the sticker price of houses is going down,

445
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 1: the costs are going up because mortgage interest rates are

446
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 1: so incredibly high. Also, we haven't seen that great of

447
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 1: a decline in these markets. Why, Because people who are

448
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 1: in their homes now they likely have a low mortgage

449
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,719
Speaker 1: interest rate, so they don't want to move they sell.

450
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 1: They don't want to sell. They don't want to move

451
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 1: because they know they're going to then get hit with

452
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 1: these high mortgage interest rate costs and that'll screw them over.

453
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,159
Speaker 1: So a lot of people are holding onto their houses

454
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 1: even though they might in other conditions sell. That's limiting

455
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 1: the inventory that's available. So even though we have seen

456
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 1: some price decline, it's not like this huge crash in

457
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 1: the prices that makes it compensate for the fact that

458
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 1: mortgage interest rates are now so so high. Yeah, exactly. So,

459
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,439
Speaker 1: once again is to explain it. Whenever the housing market

460
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:50,200
Speaker 1: is more inaccessible, even to higher bidders, people who would

461
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 1: have bought otherwise, they're going to rent. Whenever they rent,

462
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 1: that pushes out other customers down to a lower tier,

463
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 1: so they get lower quality housing roughly at the same price.

464
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 1: Because rents are rising and we have a housing squeeze

465
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 1: at the same time that we already have a major

466
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 1: housing shortage, what's happening is that the home builders themselves

467
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 1: are going to either delay construction or they're not going

468
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:12,360
Speaker 1: to bring their full houses to market because they don't

469
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:14,640
Speaker 1: want to sell in the middle of the downturn, because

470
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 1: they can't recoup their investment and they know that it'd

471
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:20,160
Speaker 1: be much better either to hold it. They can pause construction,

472
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 1: they can work on other projects and other things. So

473
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 1: that means that the available housing stock goes down. So

474
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,440
Speaker 1: you almost have a squeeze of rental markets. And once

475
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 1: again you know it's the poor, the working class now

476
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 1: frankly even the middle class at this point, who are

477
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,199
Speaker 1: all basically renting. I mean, it's almost nearly impossible to

478
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 1: buy a house otherwise. High mortgage also makes it so

479
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 1: that buying is not at the same value proposition, even

480
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,400
Speaker 1: if you do somehow miraculously have the cash in order

481
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,479
Speaker 1: to save into buy a house. So it's a very

482
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 1: very bad situation all the way around. And finally, just

483
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 1: to bring it back to inflation, I mean, you could say,

484
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 1: like if rent right now is only up zero point

485
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 1: five percent quote unquote over last monk, here's the issue.

486
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 1: Because it went up so high in twenty twenty one,

487
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 1: so many people are locked into these astronomically high rates,

488
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 1: and because the rate of rent has not gone down

489
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,679
Speaker 1: whenever they have to resign, they still have to resign

490
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 1: at a very very high rate compared to previously. So

491
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 1: this is this really is all in the favor of

492
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 1: capital and the ownership class, because the ownership class, like

493
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 1: if you're a landlord, you don't care if the washing

494
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,879
Speaker 1: machine is broken. I recently heard a story somebody had

495
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 1: to rent a house and had to bring their own

496
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 1: washer and dryer. Have you ever heard of such a thing? No,

497
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 1: the and the dryer. The renter was like, are you

498
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 1: going to do? Rented plenty of a baton? Yeah, I've

499
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:39,479
Speaker 1: rented problem washer right. Certainly in New York City, very

500
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 1: common this is bring your b Yoh New York. They're like,

501
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 1: you gott to buy your own washer dryer, And they're like,

502
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 1: are you serious. And it's one of those things where

503
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 1: it's like, Okay, well I can find somebody else will

504
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 1: do it, so you know they have all the power

505
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 1: and they don't have to fix anything. You also think

506
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 1: about the fact that, okay, so if prices come down,

507
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 1: and they have come down in the majority of markets,

508
00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:00,679
Speaker 1: housing prices have come down, but mortgage and are so

509
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:02,679
Speaker 1: high that it's not like your monthly payment is going

510
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 1: to be any lower. In fact, as we're seeing, it's

511
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,879
Speaker 1: like double what it used to be. Who does that

512
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 1: ultimately benefit, Well, it benefits rich people who have cash

513
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 1: that they can just you know, pay a house in cash.

514
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:15,360
Speaker 1: And it benefits primarily orman a capital because they can

515
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 1: take advantage of the lower prices and not have to

516
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 1: deal with the higher financing costs because again they have

517
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 1: the cash upfront. Those are the people who benefit most

518
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 1: from a market like this. So in a lot of ways,

519
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 1: the Fed's policy, which let's be clear, is really aimed

520
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 1: very directly at the housing market. I mean, Jerome Pale

521
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 1: said flat out, he said, I'd say, if you are

522
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 1: a home buyer somebody or a young person looking to

523
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 1: buy a home, you need a bit of a reset.

524
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: We need to get back to a place where supply

525
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,120
Speaker 1: and demand or back together and where inflation is down

526
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 1: low again and mortgage rates are low again. So he's

527
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 1: saying very directly, like we are targeting the housing market

528
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,719
Speaker 1: with our actions. What they have created thus far as

529
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 1: the worst of all possible worlds. You still have low

530
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:58,400
Speaker 1: inventory both because of the phenomenon I talked about home

531
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 1: buyers holding onto their houses because they don't want to

532
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 1: get hit. With these high mortgage interest rates, you have

533
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 1: home builders not having new housing starts because their financing

534
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 1: rates are also higher, so you have a low inventory,

535
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 1: which is keeping prices relatively high. I mean, so we

536
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: are seeing somewhat of a downward turn in terms of that.

537
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 1: And then the costs are so high because of mortgage

538
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 1: interest rates, and then that trickles down to the rental market,

539
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:24,159
Speaker 1: so people there are getting screwed as well. So it

540
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 1: really is a bad situation for everyone. And if you're

541
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:28,919
Speaker 1: an existing homeowner, I mean, you're in a better position

542
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 1: than anybody else. But also because the prices are declining,

543
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 1: you're seeing your equity being eaten away. You're just you're stuck,

544
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 1: like you're not going anywhere. I saw a story of

545
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 1: somebody who had like a one point five percent mortgage rate.

546
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:43,959
Speaker 1: I don't even know how that exists, but apparently they

547
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 1: grabbed it, got it at the exact same time, and

548
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: they're like, I'm not going anywhere. They're like they're like

549
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 1: my house. They're like every house around me could burn

550
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 1: down and I could still wouldn't move it because I

551
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 1: have to stay here. I have no I've never achieved

552
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:58,440
Speaker 1: this deal again, right, I mean, and they're not wrong.

553
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 1: It's not a bad problem I have it. Yeah, obviously

554
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 1: this is somebody who I think this person I'm talking

555
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 1: about as a Washington Post calumnist, So they're probably fine life.

556
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 1: But the point being that that's their behavioral incentives are real.

557
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 1: The market is now constructed such that rent is probably

558
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: either going to rise for the foreseeable future if rates

559
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 1: don't come down. Yes, it's nice that the sticker price

560
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 1: on the home goes down. It's bad that the mortgage

561
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 1: rate goes up, and that generally without any more access

562
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 1: to capital for normal folks, that means that you're still

563
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 1: even more out of the league. Yeah, whenever you're trying

564
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,879
Speaker 1: to buy a house. Yeah, I really, you know, wanted

565
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 1: to do this segment with the people in mind who

566
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 1: say overwhelmingly they're actually rooting for a housing crash because

567
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:42,199
Speaker 1: they see the way that prices have just escalated like

568
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 1: crazy and the way that they've been priced down in

569
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 1: the market of how insane it's been, where it's like, oh,

570
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 1: I have to have, you know, eighty percent cash down

571
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:50,920
Speaker 1: in order to even compete in this market. And we

572
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 1: were covering those stories of we're that house here just

573
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 1: it was unlivable. I mean it was a total in shambles,

574
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 1: and it still sparked this bidding war of remember how

575
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 1: for a million bucks it's only a million dollars and

576
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 1: had some insane bidding. We're of like eighty six people

577
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,880
Speaker 1: or what a I there's one in Virginia that there's

578
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 1: one in Virginia that had squatters inside of it. They're

579
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 1: like squad sold as is squatters in the squatters included.

580
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 1: You have to deal with it like yeah, they're like,

581
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 1: You're like, we haven't resolved this, so I am and

582
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 1: somebody bought it. I understand people who are looking at

583
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 1: the housing market and saying like, crash, baby, crash, because

584
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 1: I want at some point in my life to be

585
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 1: able to be a homeowner, especially when that is the

586
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 1: most like critical dividing class dividing line at this point

587
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 1: in this country is like people who are asset owners

588
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 1: and people who aren't, and homes are obviously the primary

589
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 1: asset that most like ordinary Americans own. I just want

590
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 1: to say, it doesn't look like we're headed in that direction.

591
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 1: I mean, even as prices do come down somewhat, it

592
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 1: is not nearly enough to make up for the increase

593
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 1: in mortgage interest cost. Fortune had a good piece sort

594
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 1: of breaking down how this will I'll go the different phases.

595
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 1: They say of the housing market downturn. Let's go ahead

596
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 1: and put this up on the screen. So they say

597
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 1: they have we now have clear evidence the housing market

598
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 1: downturn has moved beyond the first stage, which is a

599
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 1: drop in housing activity that's like people buying homes, and

600
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 1: into the second stage, which is falling home prices. So

601
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 1: they say that home price correction is spreading. This is

602
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: what I was talking about. Out of one hundred and

603
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 1: forty eight regional housing markets that are tracked by some

604
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 1: real estate consulting firm, ninety eight out of one hundred

605
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 1: and forty eight have seen home values fall. Only fifty

606
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 1: markets remain at their peak now to give you a

607
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 1: sense of how much they've fallen, and that it's nowhere

608
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 1: near the home price decline that we saw back in

609
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 1: the housing crash in two thousand and eight. So at

610
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 1: that time we saw a peak to trough US home

611
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 1: price decline of twenty seven percent. Right now they're estimating

612
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 1: that significantly overvalued housing markets, So places like San Francisco

613
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 1: that have been just completely insane. They might see a

614
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: drop in the five to ten percent range, so nowhere

615
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 1: close to the massive drops we saw during the housing crisis.

616
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 1: Not that the housing crisis was ulti good for anyone,

617
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 1: was another instance where it was great for permanent capital

618
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 1: who bought up all these distressed properties and now are

619
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 1: making money hand over fist on them. They also say

620
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: that the housing downturn, and this is very intentional from

621
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 1: the FED, will soon spread beyond housing, because you've got

622
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: massive declines in home sales, both new home sales and

623
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 1: existing home sales. They've fallen by twenty by thirty percent

624
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 1: in terms of new home sales, twenty percent in terms

625
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 1: of existing home sales. You've got all these homebuilders and

626
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 1: places like Zillow and open door whatever struggling financially and

627
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 1: so as that as home shoppers put a pause on

628
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 1: their searches, that means you see decreased demand for all

629
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 1: sorts of other things. I mean, think of all the

630
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 1: inputs that go into a house, but washer and dryer,

631
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:46,959
Speaker 1: like you were talking of the refrigeras, the appliance is lumber,

632
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 1: everything that goes into a house. You see a decline

633
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 1: in demand for those things. So that's why when there's

634
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 1: a housing market downturn, it spreads thround the economy. Now again,

635
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 1: that's actually what the FED is hoping for because this

636
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 1: is a parent Currently, the only way that our political

637
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 1: class can figure out how to deal with the rising

638
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 1: inflation is like, let's screw regular people over and make

639
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 1: it so that they're able to purchase less things. So

640
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 1: that will be the next phase. Is basically the housing

641
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 1: market downturn spreads to other sectors of the market. And

642
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 1: then you've also got some details here. Let's put this

643
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 1: last piece up on the screen of some of the

644
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 1: housing sort of companies, housing adjacent or affiliated companies that

645
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:31,240
Speaker 1: are really struggling in this market. This home flipper company

646
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 1: called open Door, which I actually never really heard of,

647
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 1: but their whole whole idea was like facilitating home flipping.

648
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 1: They're having big problems. They lost money on forty two

649
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 1: percent of their August resales. They've seen median home prices

650
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: because they've declined. That's really screwed them over. But instead

651
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: of canceling contracts, they decided to make good on the

652
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: offers they'd already put out there. So they have seen

653
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 1: a huge hit and they're not alone in terms of

654
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 1: other companies that are in the home buying and selling business. Yeah,

655
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 1: it's important. I mean, really, what's being underscored on all

656
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 1: of this is just how precarious all of the market is,

657
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of downstream effects. So I'm glad

658
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 1: that you put it the way you did, which is that, Yeah,

659
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 1: you may wish for a housing collapse, but there's a

660
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 1: lot of other stuff going on. Yeah, let's all just

661
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 1: be very mindful about what's happening. Yeah, Unfortunately, it's not

662
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 1: likely to benefit those people are just hoping to get

663
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 1: their foot in the doorknoe unintended. All right, let's go

664
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: ahead and put this up there on the screen. You

665
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 1: alluded to this, and of course this is probably going

666
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 1: to have the single biggest impact on our economic future,

667
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: not just us, but you know, the entire economy, which

668
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 1: is that right now, this is written in Bloomberg. It's

669
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 1: a fascinating history, which is that China. This is, according

670
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 1: again to their analysis, is that going through a financial

671
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 1: crisis today, quote, I believe is much more serious than

672
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 1: even the global financial crisis in the United States. So

673
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 1: they talk specifically about how their housing market and other

674
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 1: direct indicators are showing massive slowdown in China, specifically because

675
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 1: of how quote the economy is sputtering under COVID lockdowns.

676
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 1: The People's Bank of China has cut interest rates as

677
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 1: central bank worldwide increase them, giving investors even more incentive

678
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 1: to shift their money abroad. Together, these forces have pushed

679
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: the yuan down by eight percent against the dollar this year,

680
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 1: putting it on course for the most biggest annual drop

681
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 1: since nineteen ninety four. Here's what this analyst who's predicting

682
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 1: a bigger financial crisis says, quote, China is going through

683
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 1: that financial crisis for us. For for us. The play

684
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 1: he's talking about how to make money is in currency,

685
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 1: but he's talking about an imminent and possible Chinese currency collapse.

686
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 1: The part of the issue is that, as they actually

687
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 1: point out and the pushback is everybody's always colla saying

688
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 1: they want is going to collapse. Guys, this guy's been

689
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 1: betting on the collapse since twenty fourteen, right, so it's

690
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 1: like this time it's going to pay off. So keep

691
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 1: that in mind. I mean, he could be one of

692
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 1: these big short you know, geniuses, or he could just

693
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 1: be one of those people is always saying that China's

694
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:59,479
Speaker 1: going to collapse, but the underlying dynamic he's discussing of

695
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 1: the slow to in housing is absolutely correct. I weirdly

696
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 1: have a reference to Evergrand in my monologue which is

697
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 1: about lab leak. But you know, the Evergrand collapse was

698
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 1: actually a catastrophic event. And to have all of these

699
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 1: ripple effects where I remember before they even stopped trading

700
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 1: on the Hong Kong stock is changed and more, you

701
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 1: were seeing some real estate companies, multi billion dollar behemits

702
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,240
Speaker 1: backed by the CCP declined by seventy five eighty percent

703
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 1: in value like overnight, and that explodes like bonds. It

704
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 1: explodes the ability of people because remember, you know, if

705
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:31,719
Speaker 1: we take it back to that quote unquote crisis, people

706
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 1: had put down cash and were waiting for their apartments,

707
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 1: and this is like a high status symbol in Chinese society.

708
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 1: So the ripple effects where that there were riots, people

709
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:43,320
Speaker 1: were upset, and then you combine that with zero COVID

710
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 1: and dramatically lower economic activity, things are a powder keg

711
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 1: right now in China domestically there you know, I have

712
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 1: read a report even in western China, like in the Wigers,

713
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 1: and you know, obviously they're already being horrifically treated right now.

714
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 1: I mean their level of lockdown is like make Shanghai

715
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,839
Speaker 1: look like a you know, like a vacation, right, and

716
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,839
Speaker 1: so that's the whole country, no matter where the flare

717
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 1: up happens or not. And they're also not betting on

718
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 1: vaccination at all. They are continuing to bet on zero COVID,

719
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 1: which is insanity in the age especially, and it was

720
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 1: always stupid, but in the age of Omicron, it's like

721
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 1: especially stupid, like orders of magnitude. Yeah, very very true.

722
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 1: That is very true. Yeah. I mean, just to put

723
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 1: some numbers to what you're saying here about the housing market,

724
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 1: there was a forty percent drop in home sales this

725
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:33,359
Speaker 1: year in China, forty percent. You have people who are

726
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:36,359
Speaker 1: demanding their money back over unfinished projects. You have a

727
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 1: massive pullback. Now, some of this was actually orchestrated by

728
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 1: the government because they saw, Okay, we can't continue to

729
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 1: have this housing market escalate and escalate and escalate and escalate.

730
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 1: We have to pair things back at some point. But

731
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 1: can they navigate that in a way that doesn't trigger

732
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 1: a gigantic crash that is a major you know, that's

733
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:58,840
Speaker 1: a huge question. And so you have the housing market

734
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 1: massive pullback, you have those COVID zero policies, and you

735
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,360
Speaker 1: also have had extreme heat waves that have really impact

736
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:10,439
Speaker 1: their crop yields and also their power supplies. So they're

737
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 1: being hit from all directions right now. To give you

738
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: some warn numbers about the housing market, this was from

739
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 1: a different article that I was reading. They were saying that,

740
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 1: you know, the housing market is really driven growth in

741
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 1: China for the past two decades. The Chinese housing market

742
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 1: is the largest asset class in the world, So that

743
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 1: gives you a sense of how central and how critical

744
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 1: this is to the Chinese economy, not to mention the

745
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 1: global economy. Now, developers are going busted after being deprived

746
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 1: of easy credit. Prices are falling, homeowners are refusing to

747
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: pay mortgages on unfinished homes. The slump and properties being

748
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 1: sold in construction is crippling local governments. This is a

749
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 1: really important part because they rely on land sales for income.

750
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 1: So the way they fund local governments fund themselves is

751
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 1: by selling off land. Now they're unable to do that,

752
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 1: so they're going bankrupt and having extreme financial issues. The

753
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 1: other thing that they pointed to in this article is

754
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 1: they say that the next show to drop for China

755
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 1: could be falling external demand. So basically, I mean, these

756
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 1: things all fed on each other, right, if we have

757
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:17,840
Speaker 1: a downturn here, if there's a downturn in Europe, obviously,

758
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 1: energy costs are high, so it's very much expected that

759
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 1: people will have less money to buy cheap crap from China.

760
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:26,720
Speaker 1: They're be focused on like let me pay my rent

761
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 1: and let me have food on the table and let

762
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 1: me not freeze to death. That's a huge issue for

763
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 1: the Chinese economy, which obviously depends on being able to

764
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:36,760
Speaker 1: export their goods and make a lot of money around

765
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,879
Speaker 1: the world. So that's the picture as best as we can,

766
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 1: you know, as best as we can decipher it of

767
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 1: the Chinese economy right now. And again, obviously these things

768
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 1: all very interconnected and have a lot of feedback loops

769
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 1: that can lead to you know, global contagion. Essentially, Good morning, everybody,

770
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 1: Happy Thursday. We have an amazing show for everybody today

771
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:56,480
Speaker 1: when we have crystal Indeed we do. I know I

772
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 1: always say lots of big stories to dig into, but

773
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: today it is like extra super really true. Lots of

774
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 1: stuff going on with Russia and Ukraine putin going ahead

775
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 1: and calling up somewhere around three hundred thousand Russian citizens.

776
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 1: That mobilization has begun. Protests and reaction of that are happening.

777
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:17,359
Speaker 1: Plus he's made new threats regarding potential nuclear weapons, So

778
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 1: dig into that, we'll dig into Biden's big speech at

779
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 1: the UN. We've also got a massive new legal developments

780
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 1: for the former president, including some rulings that are going

781
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 1: against him with regard to the Special Master and the

782
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 1: classified documents, and also Letitia James, the Attorney General of York,

783
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:35,240
Speaker 1: announcing a new civil suit against Trump, Trump Junior, Ivanka,

784
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 1: and Eric. So we have all those details for you.

785
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 1: We also have big economic news. We have new indications

786
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 1: about the housing market. We have the Fed going ahead

787
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 1: and moving forward with that seventy five basis point rate hike,

788
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 1: and actually just on the Bank of England is moving

789
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 1: forward with a rate hike as well, So that's that

790
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 1: global tightening that we were talking about. New comments from

791
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 1: the White House President Biden got a lot of attention.

792
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 1: I guess I would say were some flak for saying

793
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: that COVID is over. Now they're kind of trying to

794
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,240
Speaker 1: clarify those comments. So we'll dig into that debate. Soccer's

795
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 1: looking at gas prices, I'm looking at the case of

796
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 1: Ed Nan Said, who, of course, was the subject of

797
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 1: the block buster podcast Cereal. It was literally the first

798
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 1: podcast I ever listened to the same I would not

799
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:19,799
Speaker 1: be the person I am today without sarahkaneg shout out

800
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 1: to her, because no, literally I listened to Cereal and

801
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 1: at the top was an ad, one of the only

802
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 1: ads that's ever worked, Whale Chair Audible. Oh it was.

803
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:28,880
Speaker 1: It was audible. It was always the mailship when I

804
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 1: was listening to it at the beginning, I guess in

805
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 1: twenty fourteen, it was audible, and it was like, Hey,

806
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 1: if you like this, check out audio books. And I

807
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 1: was like, oh, okay, And I've probably since listened to

808
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 1: like over a thousand audio books. Wow. As a result

809
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 1: of it, it it was funny because I went back I

810
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: talked about this in the monologue, but I went back

811
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,799
Speaker 1: and re listened to not every episode, because there's twelve

812
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: of them that would be a lot, but maybe like

813
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:49,439
Speaker 1: four episodes, the sort of key ones, the ones about Jay,

814
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:51,319
Speaker 1: the ones about like the you know that lay out

815
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 1: the whole case et cetera. And there were so many

816
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 1: parts of it that were so nostalgic, like the phone

817
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 1: call coming in from the penitentiary and like aDNA and

818
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:03,840
Speaker 1: siet None Yeah, yeah, anyway, and none is free? Is

819
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:07,240
Speaker 1: he innocent? I'm going to dig into what we know. Also,

820
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 1: I'm super excited to talk about to our guests today.

821
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 1: So this guy is the lead worker organizer for a

822
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:17,800
Speaker 1: new effort to unionize a home depot outside of Philadelphia.

823
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:20,320
Speaker 1: He also happens to be a big Breaking Points Space

824
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 1: Breaking Points fan, so it's pretty cool. I'm excited to

825
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,720
Speaker 1: talk about to him. Home depot is like the fifth

826
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 1: largest employer in the whole country. Huge. Yeah, So if

827
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:31,839
Speaker 1: they were able to succeed there, you know, that could

828
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 1: be a potentially, you know, a really significant moment in

829
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 1: terms of the growing grossroots labor moon. He actually said

830
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: in an interview was like, listen of Chris Mal's could

831
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 1: do it with an Amazon warehouse. I thought, you know,

832
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 1: certainly I could do it with the three hundred people

833
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:46,160
Speaker 1: here at home depots. So we'll see how that effort

834
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 1: is going. Let's start with Putin. Obviously, this is the

835
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,880
Speaker 1: biggest news, not only what Putin announced, late Tuesday. Well,

836
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 1: I guess you know, Tuesday to Wednesday, very early in

837
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 1: the morning. But all of the geopolitical reaction, We're going

838
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 1: to start very first with what Putin had to say.

839
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 1: Let's put this up on the screen. Putin declares partial

840
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 1: mobilization of the Russian defense forces. The decree was signed

841
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 1: that says, quote, this is a translation. Only citizens who

842
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 1: are currently in the reserved and above all, those who

843
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:16,799
Speaker 1: served in the armed forces have certain military specialties and

844
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 1: relevant experience will be subject to conscription. It's effectively the

845
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 1: same as the United States calling up like the National

846
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 1: Guard or the US Army Reserve. So not going fully

847
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:30,800
Speaker 1: to the general population, like drafting them into base training,

848
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 1: but people who have already previous military experience. So let

849
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:36,879
Speaker 1: me say though that you know, that's what they're saying,

850
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,799
Speaker 1: and that's how they're selling it. But the order that

851
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 1: he signed does not actually specify those limitations. So it's

852
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 1: actually just in his speech, not actually in his way. Yees.

853
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 1: So in terms of how they're implementing it now, it

854
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 1: appears that that's the direction they're going in, but the

855
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 1: order actually is a much broader potential mobilization. So important

856
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 1: thing to keep in mind very important one. And look,

857
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 1: this gives us a lot of insight to the state

858
00:41:57,320 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 1: of the Russian militaries, like how many of the best

859
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 1: people have already been called up, how many have they

860
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: churned through? How many You know, there's a lot of

861
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 1: so called refuse nicks, people who are just refusing not

862
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 1: to serve in the quote unquote Special Operation Zone because

863
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 1: we're like, we don't want to go to war with Ukraine. Yeah,

864
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 1: I don't want anything to do with it. Well, there's

865
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 1: reports of huge lineups at the border of Russian men

866
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 1: trying to get out of the country before this comes

867
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 1: for them. There were reports that I think were kind

868
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 1: of unconfirmed that the airlines have been told to stop

869
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,839
Speaker 1: selling tickets. There's a lot of rumors going out at Russia. Yeah,

870
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 1: so I don't know if that one is accurate or not,

871
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 1: but there certainly is a lot of video floating around

872
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,400
Speaker 1: of you know, big lineups at the border of people

873
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 1: like I'm getting the hell out of here before I

874
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 1: have to go and fight in this stupid war that

875
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 1: I didn't want anything to do with it it. But they're

876
00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:41,839
Speaker 1: freaking out, and you know, immediately after the Putin speech,

877
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:45,440
Speaker 1: let's put this up there. The Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shogu,

878
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 1: he came out and said that Russia is going to

879
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 1: draft three hundred thousand reservists to support the military campaign

880
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 1: in Ukraine. He also gave us one of the most

881
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 1: laughable statistics yet that only five, nine hundred and thirty

882
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:01,759
Speaker 1: seven Russian souls have been killed since the start of

883
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:04,799
Speaker 1: the conflict. That is ludicrous the actual I mean, look,

884
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 1: nobody knows the actual number, but it's probably more along

885
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 1: the lines of like ten thousand to twenty thousand than

886
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 1: it is six thousand. And we know that based on

887
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 1: actual open source stuff coming out of Russia of people

888
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 1: who are posting and you know, mourning their loved ones.

889
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 1: This is just like what happened to the Soviets in Afghanistan.

890
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 1: They always tried to cover up their death toll, and

891
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 1: in the end people knew the truth because at the

892
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:28,440
Speaker 1: end of the day, you got to notify somebody's family

893
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 1: when they die, and then people start talking going to funerals.

894
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 1: It's like, hey, there's all these funerals now, all of

895
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:35,840
Speaker 1: a sudden, and you weren't even supposed to grieve. It

896
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:37,800
Speaker 1: was one of the biggest it's one of the factors

897
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:39,959
Speaker 1: actually that led to the decline of the Soviet Union,

898
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:43,320
Speaker 1: especially in terms of a lack of confidence in the state.

899
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 1: So what does all of this mean. Well, there's a

900
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 1: lot of different ways in order to read it, but

901
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 1: I think let's focus first on Russian society because Putin

902
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:55,319
Speaker 1: this is a big loss for him. He sold this war.

903
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 1: As you know, I was thinking about it recently in

904
00:43:57,760 --> 00:43:59,680
Speaker 1: the context of the Iraq War. We were sold the

905
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 1: ira light footprint, one hundred and fifty thousand guys. Go in, lightning,

906
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 1: come out, We're out. That's it. And Eric Shinseeki and

907
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 1: a lot of other guys told the US public in

908
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 1: the US Congress are like, no, you're probably gonna need

909
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 1: like four hundred thousand people otherwise you're gonna have a

910
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 1: massive insurgency on your hand. The Bush administration didn't want

911
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:18,440
Speaker 1: to listen. In this case, that's the Putin and so

912
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 1: Putin thought, I can do this with a couple hundred

913
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:22,880
Speaker 1: thousand guys, all this military equipment. We have one of

914
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 1: the world to wright power militariessk me over in like

915
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 1: two weeks, well six months into this thing. Obviously, they've

916
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 1: now also suffered a humiliating defeat. So this is kind

917
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 1: of like the quote unquote surge for Putin. He's doubling

918
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:37,320
Speaker 1: down on the war in Ukraine and saying, okay, fine,

919
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 1: my initial cell to the Russian population that this wasn't

920
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:42,319
Speaker 1: going to really affect your life and I wouldn't have

921
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:44,759
Speaker 1: to call it preserves a quote unquote special operation, not

922
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 1: a war. This is a big domestic loss, I think,

923
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:49,759
Speaker 1: no matter which way that you want to spin it. Yeah,

924
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:51,759
Speaker 1: another fascinating thing. You know, when I found Crystal, he

925
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 1: cited nationalist criticism of him on Russian television, which really

926
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:58,959
Speaker 1: makes me think that it was all a Kremlin plot

927
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:04,399
Speaker 1: in the beginning, manufacturer manufacture descent coming from the right,

928
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:06,839
Speaker 1: saying why aren't you doing more? Why aren't you calling

929
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 1: calling up? He acknowledged them in his speech and was like,

930
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 1: I have heard you, I have listened to you, and

931
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:13,839
Speaker 1: that has led me to this disce. I mean, it's

932
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 1: possible because you also saw, like we covered here, the

933
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:19,799
Speaker 1: amount of criticism that was coming on state TV and

934
00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 1: from these bloggers that you know normally isn't really allowed.

935
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 1: So the fact that it was allowed, that's possible. I mean,

936
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 1: it's also possible that Look, genuinely, the place he feels

937
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:31,359
Speaker 1: pressure from is from his right, from the harder core

938
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:35,839
Speaker 1: nationalist And so after this, you know, what has been

939
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 1: a series of stunning advances by the Ukrainian military and

940
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 1: stunning setbacks for Russia, he kind of had to do something,

941
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:47,800
Speaker 1: And so the bulk of the political pressure was coming

942
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 1: from that more nationalist front, and he certainly, you know,

943
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 1: for him, this is existential, like if they just lose,

944
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:57,240
Speaker 1: that's going to be a disaster for it. Cannot allow

945
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 1: that to happen. It probably would be the end of

946
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 1: his presidence. And so to me, nothing lays out the

947
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 1: sort of context here better than that image of the

948
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 1: day that they're suffering these humiliating defeats in Ukraine. Putin

949
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 1: is there inaugurating a new ferris wheel. Like they were

950
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: still trying to hold on to this idea that the

951
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:23,960
Speaker 1: bulk of the public could be insulated from this conflict

952
00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 1: and that it wouldn't have to impact their lives. It became,

953
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 1: you know, this was just like a total defeat of

954
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 1: that original strategy that Okay, we could do a little

955
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:36,880
Speaker 1: bit of war over here in the public won't even notice.

956
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 1: So I guess the more hopeful spin is that he

957
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:45,760
Speaker 1: is trying to find a way. I've seen some analysts

958
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 1: saying he's trying to find a way ultimately to get

959
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 1: out of this but save enough face so that he's

960
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 1: able to hold on to his presidency. So you have to, like,

961
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 1: you have to strengthen your hand, because the Ukrainians certainly

962
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:56,879
Speaker 1: aren't going to agree to a ceasefire or he's deal

963
00:46:56,960 --> 00:46:59,840
Speaker 1: right now when they see total victory in sight. So

964
00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 1: that was one analysis that I saw that this is

965
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 1: an attempt to sort of strengthen the hand so that

966
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 1: he might be in a position to negotiate for some

967
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 1: sort of ceasefire that wouldn't just be utter and total humiliation.

968
00:47:10,880 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 1: But there's no doubt about it. From the beginning how

969
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:18,280
Speaker 1: he thought this would go, it has not gone anything

970
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 1: like that. From hoping that it could just be this

971
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 1: sort of limited effort that the public was protected from,

972
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:25,879
Speaker 1: from thinking they could just roll right into Kiev every

973
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 1: step of the way, it has been a disaster for

974
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 1: them and has not gone according to plan. Now, I

975
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 1: think it's also important to ask, like, this is a

976
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:36,319
Speaker 1: lot of people they're callaly three hundred thousand people there's

977
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:38,320
Speaker 1: a lot of people now, a lot of them don't

978
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 1: have much, if any training. This is certainly you know,

979
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 1: they're not sending their best, so to speak. They've lost

980
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 1: a lot of their sort of most skilled military, well

981
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 1: trained folks alright, soldiers already. So how much of the

982
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 1: difference is this going to make? Are they really prepared

983
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:56,239
Speaker 1: and are they organized enough to have this kind of

984
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 1: surge into the field into Ukraine. I think those are

985
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:01,440
Speaker 1: all big, big question to ask, And it seems to

986
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:04,640
Speaker 1: me like this winter, for a variety of reasons, is

987
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:07,720
Speaker 1: really going to be determinative. Not only because we'll see

988
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:10,760
Speaker 1: whether this surge of personnel makes a difference for Russia

989
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 1: helps them to turn the tide and regain the upper hand.

990
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:15,719
Speaker 1: That's number one, number two, and we'll get to this

991
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:18,479
Speaker 1: more when we talk about Biden's un speech. It'll also

992
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:21,879
Speaker 1: be a question politically, how the US population is still

993
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:24,960
Speaker 1: responding to this war. We still all in the European populations.

994
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:27,319
Speaker 1: How does it go with energy prices? You know, how

995
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 1: much austerity and pain does this winter bring to European populations.

996
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:33,400
Speaker 1: So I think a lot will be determined over the

997
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 1: course of this winter. Yeah, I think that's right. And

998
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:36,719
Speaker 1: you know, we also have to acknowledge some of the

999
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:39,120
Speaker 1: heroes across Russia. I mean, let's put this up there

1000
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:42,840
Speaker 1: on the screen. Spontaneous protests broke out all across the country.

1001
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:45,239
Speaker 1: Here's video just from Moscow. I'm not going to say

1002
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 1: this is the entire Russian population, but that's a lot

1003
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:49,640
Speaker 1: of people that I'm looking at. It's clearly an organic

1004
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 1: pushback some percentage, yeah, right exactly. I mean even if

1005
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:55,319
Speaker 1: it's ten percent. And remember, look to live in an

1006
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 1: authoritarian country like Russia, and it's not like these people

1007
00:48:57,520 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 1: can easily leave, and to risk your literal life and

1008
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:04,440
Speaker 1: imprisonment to do this takes some serious, serious courage. So

1009
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 1: we want to acknowledge those people. In terms of the military,

1010
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 1: let's put this up there. Michael Kaufman, he's that military

1011
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:13,360
Speaker 1: analyst that we relied on several times throughout this invasion.

1012
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 1: I think he put it in a very measured and

1013
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 1: important way. He's like, look, first and foremost, of course,

1014
00:49:18,840 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 1: we don't know, so we should not make any deterministic

1015
00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:24,719
Speaker 1: or definitive claims. But here's what he says. I would

1016
00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 1: not suggest that this can turn around Russia's fortunes in

1017
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:29,600
Speaker 1: the war, as in, are they going to be immediately

1018
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 1: on the offensive. Probably not. However, here's what he says,

1019
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 1: I would take care of being dismissive, especially looking towards

1020
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 1: the medium term of this winter and twenty twenty three,

1021
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:45,200
Speaker 1: because force availability and manpower matters. Hence the implications can vary.

1022
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 1: What he essentially comes to and arrives at in this thread,

1023
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 1: and his analysis is that the Russian military can use

1024
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:55,359
Speaker 1: these forces to plug up their weak defenses like those

1025
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:58,759
Speaker 1: that folded in the Ukrainian offensive, and just make it

1026
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:02,800
Speaker 1: into much more of war of attrition and make it frankly,

1027
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 1: far more difficult for the Ukrainians to try and advance.

1028
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:09,160
Speaker 1: Are they capable enough to go on the offense. What

1029
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:12,120
Speaker 1: Coffin points out is that the Russians have bled through

1030
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:14,600
Speaker 1: some of their best generals, some of their best fighting forces.

1031
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:18,759
Speaker 1: Their logistical challenges are obviously, you know, terrible, and it

1032
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 1: would take probably more than the quote unquote partial mobilization

1033
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:25,319
Speaker 1: to actually they would have to basically fully mobilize their

1034
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:27,920
Speaker 1: entire society and army in order to wage war, which

1035
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:29,359
Speaker 1: was not supposed to be the case for a great

1036
00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:32,919
Speaker 1: part of military fighting a quote unquote third rate army. Well,

1037
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:35,640
Speaker 1: they've proven themselves that when you're fighting for your life,

1038
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 1: you're going to fight very differently. On top of the

1039
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:40,799
Speaker 1: weapons that we have supplied to the Ukrainians, this is

1040
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 1: going to actually probably bring it even more balance to

1041
00:50:44,040 --> 00:50:48,239
Speaker 1: the conflict, which does unfortunately mean that everybody's kind of

1042
00:50:48,239 --> 00:50:50,840
Speaker 1: locked in at this point they were Ukrainians. Now they've

1043
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 1: really only got I don't know, let's say what eight

1044
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 1: to eight to ten weeks left of these people. Obviously

1045
00:50:57,520 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 1: they're not called up yet, they're not yet on the

1046
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 1: front line. Not that got much time before winter strikes

1047
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 1: and in which they can still continue to capitalize on that.

1048
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 1: That's why they're begging for weapons right now, harder than

1049
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:10,880
Speaker 1: they ever have in a long time. So it's a

1050
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:13,600
Speaker 1: very mixed bag in terms of what it tells us.

1051
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:17,279
Speaker 1: Is it overly deterministic? No? Probably not. This does not

1052
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:20,839
Speaker 1: mean the end of Ukraine? Does it mean though, that

1053
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 1: Putin is on his very last legs? Also know this

1054
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:26,160
Speaker 1: is somewhere in the middle, which is why it's hard

1055
00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 1: to describe to people. Yeah, I think it's important to

1056
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:30,640
Speaker 1: have a lot of humility about what this will actually

1057
00:51:30,640 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 1: mean in the battlefield, because first of all, all the

1058
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:36,960
Speaker 1: analysts have gotten things wrong, like generally every step of

1059
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:40,600
Speaker 1: the way. You know, in Afghanistan, they were dramatically wrong.

1060
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:43,359
Speaker 1: So I just like at this point, I'm just you know,

1061
00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 1: it might mean something, it might mean nothing. We'll see

1062
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 1: how it all unfolds. Great point in terms of what

1063
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:50,360
Speaker 1: happens on the battlefield, you know, I do want to

1064
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 1: say with regards to those protests, there are credible reports

1065
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 1: that those who are being arrested are being immediately conscripted. Wow,

1066
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:03,960
Speaker 1: so taken into custody and immediately conscripted. So just to

1067
00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 1: underscore how courageous it is to actually go out there

1068
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:11,640
Speaker 1: in the streets and make your voice heard, I mean,

1069
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 1: that is incredible. Yegor are shared with me this morning

1070
00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:18,080
Speaker 1: there were actually one hundred and thirty Chechen women arrested

1071
00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:21,880
Speaker 1: in Chechnya for protesting, which again I mean that takes

1072
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 1: some series, real, real courage. So we have no insight

1073
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:28,680
Speaker 1: into how widespread these protests are. We really have very

1074
00:52:28,719 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 1: little insight into how much of a societal backlash there is.

1075
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:35,879
Speaker 1: But I would say, I mean, just logically thinking about this,

1076
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 1: the way that Putin sold this to the public, as

1077
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:41,120
Speaker 1: this isn't even a war. It's not going to affect

1078
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 1: you here. I am like, you know, inaugurating this ferris wheel.

1079
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 1: Don't worry about what's happening over here. To go from

1080
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 1: that to we're going to mobilize. We're going to send

1081
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:53,319
Speaker 1: in three hundred thousand more conscripts, you know, the order.

1082
00:52:53,480 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 1: Like they're not stupid, they can see that the order

1083
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:58,440
Speaker 1: is actually for a full mobilization. So no one is

1084
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 1: feeling particularly safe right now now, So anyway, I could

1085
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:07,839
Speaker 1: certainly imagine that there is significant, deep concern and backlash

1086
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:10,600
Speaker 1: to the movement in this direction. So we'll see how

1087
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:13,000
Speaker 1: all of that plays out. Yeah, absolutely, Let's move on then,

1088
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:15,800
Speaker 1: next to the most frankly important one, which is nuclear

1089
00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:18,640
Speaker 1: we'd opened or one of our shows on Biden's response

1090
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:21,960
Speaker 1: to Putin on nuclear weapons, and Putin has issued a

1091
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 1: new and very troubling taunt both to President Biden and

1092
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 1: to the entire West. So let's put this up there

1093
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:32,000
Speaker 1: on the screen. This is analysis from Andre Bakletiski, So

1094
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 1: he is specifically a nuclear analyst, and he breaks down

1095
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 1: President Putin what seemed like an offhand comment about nuclear

1096
00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 1: weapons actually was a change in Russian nuclear doctrine and

1097
00:53:42,680 --> 00:53:45,399
Speaker 1: why it is just so important. In order to break

1098
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:47,920
Speaker 1: it down, here's what he said. He said that quote,

1099
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:51,440
Speaker 1: some high level representatives of key NATO states made statements

1100
00:53:51,480 --> 00:53:55,440
Speaker 1: about the possibility and admissibility of use of WMD nuclear

1101
00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 1: weapons against Russia. First of all, I don't know what

1102
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 1: he's talking about, and that seems to be complete bullshit.

1103
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,480
Speaker 1: So just let's all be clear about what exactly Putin

1104
00:54:02,560 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 1: is saying. However, in response to said fake comments, here's

1105
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:09,960
Speaker 1: what he says. He reminds those people Russia has different

1106
00:54:10,040 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 1: quote means of destruction, meaning nuclear weapons, and he continues

1107
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:19,359
Speaker 1: by saying, quote, if the terror territorial integrity of our

1108
00:54:19,400 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 1: country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means

1109
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 1: at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's

1110
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:31,759
Speaker 1: not a bluff, he continues. The citizens of Russia can

1111
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:35,799
Speaker 1: be sure the territorial integrity of our motherland, our independence

1112
00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:39,319
Speaker 1: and freedom will be ensured. I emphasize this again, with

1113
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:43,680
Speaker 1: all the means at our disposal. So why does this matter?

1114
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:46,839
Speaker 1: Two fronts? Number One, because at the same time those

1115
00:54:46,840 --> 00:54:50,439
Speaker 1: partial mobilizations were announced Crystal, they also announce those fake

1116
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:53,240
Speaker 1: referendums that are going to occur in four separate regions

1117
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:55,600
Speaker 1: across Ukraine. We don't know the full date all of that.

1118
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:57,840
Speaker 1: All of those referendums will be much like the Crimea

1119
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 1: referendum of fake pretexts in order to full annex these

1120
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:05,120
Speaker 1: territories into Russia and officially as part of Russian law,

1121
00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:07,440
Speaker 1: would be part of the Russian Federation. Why does that

1122
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:10,480
Speaker 1: matter because then if we are talking about fighting in

1123
00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:14,440
Speaker 1: those areas in Crimea, in Curse, in the Dunbass, in Lahns,

1124
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:17,239
Speaker 1: in these regions, they could claim a part of this

1125
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 1: new nuclear doctrine that this violates their quote territorial integrity

1126
00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:24,239
Speaker 1: with weapons used by the West. This is the real

1127
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 1: nightmare scenario in terms of we obviously are not going

1128
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:30,480
Speaker 1: to accept even Crimea, you know, as part of Russia.

1129
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 1: But if they think it is, and then this as

1130
00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:34,480
Speaker 1: part of their new doctrine say that it is, it

1131
00:55:34,520 --> 00:55:37,840
Speaker 1: would open the gates to a new higher level of warfare.

1132
00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:41,200
Speaker 1: So the fact that he added territorial integrity is very

1133
00:55:41,200 --> 00:55:46,239
Speaker 1: important because previously Russian doctrine said that first use in

1134
00:55:46,320 --> 00:55:49,440
Speaker 1: a conventional war when the existence of the state is threatened,

1135
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:52,719
Speaker 1: not territorial and integrity. That was one of the first

1136
00:55:52,760 --> 00:55:57,600
Speaker 1: things and the quote unquote abstract protection of people, independence

1137
00:55:57,640 --> 00:56:01,120
Speaker 1: and freedom. So nuclear doctrine is very important to understand.

1138
00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:04,360
Speaker 1: You know, we have very very like laid out first

1139
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:07,400
Speaker 1: use cases as to when we would use you know,

1140
00:56:07,440 --> 00:56:09,680
Speaker 1: a first use strike of a nuclear weapons. So do

1141
00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:12,560
Speaker 1: the Russians. Stairs has generally been like the integrity of

1142
00:56:12,600 --> 00:56:15,880
Speaker 1: the regime, the integrity of the state. To add territorial

1143
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:18,880
Speaker 1: integrity again, and you know, this is what Andre says,

1144
00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:21,920
Speaker 1: coming from the person who has the sole decision making

1145
00:56:21,960 --> 00:56:26,160
Speaker 1: power regarding nukes, this should be taken very, very seriously.

1146
00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:29,640
Speaker 1: You combine the referendum with this new addition to Putin's

1147
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 1: nuclear doctrine, and look, we have no choice in this

1148
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:34,920
Speaker 1: country but to take it seriously. Is he lying? Is

1149
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:36,919
Speaker 1: he bluffing? I don't know. He says he's not. He's

1150
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 1: bluffed in the past. He is obviously a liar. This

1151
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:42,720
Speaker 1: pretext of all this is completely fake. But that doesn't

1152
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:45,080
Speaker 1: mean that you can't take it seriously. Whenever he says

1153
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:48,880
Speaker 1: these things, that's one hundred percent correct. Zelenski's response was

1154
00:56:48,920 --> 00:56:52,799
Speaker 1: basically like, nah, he's bluffing, but maybe yeah, you might

1155
00:56:52,880 --> 00:56:56,400
Speaker 1: be right, and you might not, but the reporting is

1156
00:56:56,440 --> 00:56:59,960
Speaker 1: the White House in the Pentagon do take this possible

1157
00:57:00,000 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 1: ability relatively seriously. And that's what we covered before when

1158
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 1: Biden was asked in that sixty minutes interview, you know,

1159
00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:08,880
Speaker 1: what would you what would you say to Putin about

1160
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 1: his use of nuclear potential use of nuclear weapons, and

1161
00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:15,919
Speaker 1: he was like, don't and then he was pushed about, Okay,

1162
00:57:15,960 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 1: well what would the response be, and ultimately his answer

1163
00:57:18,360 --> 00:57:20,160
Speaker 1: was well, obviously I'm not going to tell you right now,

1164
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:23,200
Speaker 1: but it also would depend on what the nature of

1165
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:26,320
Speaker 1: it was. So one thing that one scenario they've been

1166
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:28,320
Speaker 1: considering is would there be some sort of a like

1167
00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:32,400
Speaker 1: test or tactical detonation is sort of like a warning.

1168
00:57:33,080 --> 00:57:36,360
Speaker 1: Those sorts of things are very very scary, even as

1169
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:39,000
Speaker 1: you know, oftentimes the way the media covers it is like, oh,

1170
00:57:39,080 --> 00:57:41,400
Speaker 1: this would be no big deal, but make no mistake,

1171
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:45,320
Speaker 1: it would be a huge deal. It's also no accident

1172
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:48,880
Speaker 1: that these referendum are going forward, are they referendu when

1173
00:57:48,920 --> 00:57:54,080
Speaker 1: it's plural anyway, referendums grammar police are going forward at

1174
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:56,280
Speaker 1: the same time that he makes this comment. I mean,

1175
00:57:56,320 --> 00:57:58,720
Speaker 1: that's those two things are definitely linked. There's there's no

1176
00:57:58,840 --> 00:58:01,000
Speaker 1: question about it. So that he saying at the same time,

1177
00:58:01,400 --> 00:58:03,840
Speaker 1: we are claiming this as this is Russia, this is

1178
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:08,439
Speaker 1: our territory, and he's shifting the line as to when

1179
00:58:08,480 --> 00:58:10,880
Speaker 1: and how they would potentially use nuclear weapons and saying

1180
00:58:10,880 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 1: we will use them to defend our territorial integrity, not

1181
00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:17,320
Speaker 1: just when we see an existential threat to Russia. Those

1182
00:58:17,320 --> 00:58:20,240
Speaker 1: things are incredibly significant in terms of the territories that

1183
00:58:20,240 --> 00:58:24,360
Speaker 1: they're trying to lay claim to here. The latest reporting

1184
00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:27,040
Speaker 1: is that they're going to run poles there for five

1185
00:58:27,160 --> 00:58:31,200
Speaker 1: days starting tomorrow. There's four regions that they're going to

1186
00:58:31,240 --> 00:58:34,640
Speaker 1: conduct these fake polls and elections in, and those four

1187
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:37,560
Speaker 1: regions represent about fifteen percent of Ukrainian territory, so it's

1188
00:58:37,560 --> 00:58:40,120
Speaker 1: a very significant part of the state. Yeah, this look,

1189
00:58:40,200 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 1: it's a lot of parts of Ukraine, and these are

1190
00:58:42,200 --> 00:58:45,200
Speaker 1: the most contested parts where a lot of fighting is happening.

1191
00:58:45,240 --> 00:58:47,400
Speaker 1: It also overlays something that we talked about in one

1192
00:58:47,400 --> 00:58:50,040
Speaker 1: of our previous shows, which is that President Biden very

1193
00:58:50,120 --> 00:58:52,880
Speaker 1: much considering the exact TIHO weapons systems that we're sending

1194
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:55,160
Speaker 1: over there because the Ukrainians like, hey, we need these

1195
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:57,400
Speaker 1: long range weapons systems to hit Crimea. And he's like,

1196
00:58:57,440 --> 00:58:59,080
Speaker 1: I don't know if I want you to hit Crimea

1197
00:58:59,120 --> 00:59:03,120
Speaker 1: with you directly US provided systems. Well, if this territory

1198
00:59:03,200 --> 00:59:06,200
Speaker 1: now goes the direction of Crimea in that, now we

1199
00:59:06,280 --> 00:59:09,400
Speaker 1: have to consider the Russian responses what that means with

1200
00:59:09,480 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 1: the update of the doctrine. And look, I mean, this

1201
00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:15,160
Speaker 1: is why the nightmare is whenever authoritarian countries have nukes,

1202
00:59:15,160 --> 00:59:17,400
Speaker 1: because they can just wave their finger in your face,

1203
00:59:17,440 --> 00:59:18,880
Speaker 1: and I mean there's not a lot you can do

1204
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:22,080
Speaker 1: about it without really upping the ante all the way.

1205
00:59:22,120 --> 00:59:24,120
Speaker 1: And we're getting starting to get close to that line.

1206
00:59:24,240 --> 00:59:26,840
Speaker 1: Anytime one of the world's great powers calls up three

1207
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:29,760
Speaker 1: hundred thousand people and then changes its nuclear doctrine and

1208
00:59:29,760 --> 00:59:32,840
Speaker 1: then threatens nukes in the middle of an active conflict

1209
00:59:32,840 --> 00:59:35,360
Speaker 1: that you're semi involved in, says I am not bluffing.

1210
00:59:35,640 --> 00:59:38,840
Speaker 1: Says I'm not bluffing. Pay attention people. So this is

1211
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:41,280
Speaker 1: a new phase of the war. Who the hell knows

1212
00:59:41,280 --> 00:59:46,280
Speaker 1: what's going to happen. Joining us now is Vince Keilas

1213
00:59:46,320 --> 00:59:48,480
Speaker 1: As I just said, he is the lead worker organizer

1214
00:59:48,520 --> 00:59:52,120
Speaker 1: at that effort to unionize a home depot outside Offilly.

1215
00:59:52,160 --> 00:59:55,000
Speaker 1: Great to see events. Hey, good to see events. Thank

1216
00:59:55,000 --> 00:59:56,920
Speaker 1: you guys so much for having me. I really appreciate

1217
00:59:56,920 --> 01:00:00,000
Speaker 1: your guys coverage. Yeah, sure, of course, absolutely, we're grateful

1218
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:01,520
Speaker 1: I have you here today. I know you must be

1219
01:00:01,640 --> 01:00:05,640
Speaker 1: very busy. More perfect union are on. Our friend Jonah

1220
01:00:05,640 --> 01:00:07,640
Speaker 1: Furman over there had a good write up of your effort.

1221
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:09,680
Speaker 1: Let's go and put this up on the screen. They say,

1222
01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:12,800
Speaker 1: new inside the historic union drive at home Depot. Over

1223
01:00:12,880 --> 01:00:15,320
Speaker 1: one hundred workers at the Philly store signed on in

1224
01:00:15,440 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 1: five weeks. Managers were immediately flown in to hold captive

1225
01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:22,040
Speaker 1: audience meetings. And here's a quote from you. You say

1226
01:00:22,080 --> 01:00:24,760
Speaker 1: that it is backfiring. Another quote you had in this

1227
01:00:24,800 --> 01:00:26,880
Speaker 1: piece that I love, Vince, was you said, listen, if

1228
01:00:26,960 --> 01:00:29,520
Speaker 1: Chris Small's could do that at a warehouse of over

1229
01:00:29,600 --> 01:00:32,520
Speaker 1: eight thousand people, we can do it in our store

1230
01:00:32,720 --> 01:00:35,560
Speaker 1: of three hundred. So Vince, just tell us a little

1231
01:00:35,600 --> 01:00:37,880
Speaker 1: bit about what gave you the idea and how the

1232
01:00:37,920 --> 01:00:41,720
Speaker 1: effort is going so far. I mean, it's kind of

1233
01:00:41,720 --> 01:00:44,360
Speaker 1: a multifaceted thing. I also have to get a huge

1234
01:00:44,360 --> 01:00:47,440
Speaker 1: shout out to you guys. You know a lot of

1235
01:00:47,480 --> 01:00:50,080
Speaker 1: like the covers that you guys gave and honestly too,

1236
01:00:50,160 --> 01:00:52,440
Speaker 1: just you guys making to move to breaking points, to

1237
01:00:52,480 --> 01:00:55,760
Speaker 1: being independent and you know, challenging yourselves to step out

1238
01:00:55,760 --> 01:00:59,080
Speaker 1: into a new field to do something different was extremely inspiring,

1239
01:00:59,160 --> 01:01:02,280
Speaker 1: you know, and taking that in conjunction, which is some

1240
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:04,920
Speaker 1: of the circumstances in the store, we felt that this

1241
01:01:05,080 --> 01:01:06,680
Speaker 1: was the best move for us. You know, we I

1242
01:01:06,800 --> 01:01:09,160
Speaker 1: tried having conversations over the last like month and a

1243
01:01:09,200 --> 01:01:12,120
Speaker 1: half with people in various you know, parts of home Depot,

1244
01:01:12,160 --> 01:01:13,960
Speaker 1: trying to let them know the concerns of the store,

1245
01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:15,960
Speaker 1: and it just felt like, honestly, we were getting a

1246
01:01:16,000 --> 01:01:17,720
Speaker 1: lot of spin. We weren't really getting the answers that

1247
01:01:17,760 --> 01:01:20,440
Speaker 1: we were looking for, and so you know, kind of

1248
01:01:20,480 --> 01:01:23,040
Speaker 1: just taking a temperature in the store, we felt like, hey,

1249
01:01:23,080 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 1: this is this is going to be the best move

1250
01:01:24,680 --> 01:01:27,320
Speaker 1: for us, and myself and some other individuals within the

1251
01:01:27,320 --> 01:01:29,400
Speaker 1: store felt that, you know what, we have the courage

1252
01:01:29,440 --> 01:01:30,920
Speaker 1: and we have the capacity to be able to get

1253
01:01:30,920 --> 01:01:33,400
Speaker 1: this done. That's so incredible to hear. Vince, you know

1254
01:01:33,760 --> 01:01:35,120
Speaker 1: very much to us in terms of the impact of

1255
01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:38,280
Speaker 1: our work, but important let's focus on you and your store.

1256
01:01:38,400 --> 01:01:40,360
Speaker 1: Talk to us like, why is this a step that

1257
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:43,480
Speaker 1: you're considering making what are you guys looking for, like

1258
01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:46,800
Speaker 1: what can make your lives better at your workplace? So

1259
01:01:46,920 --> 01:01:49,360
Speaker 1: I mean we're we're kind of focused in on, you know,

1260
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 1: various things like like wages, staffing in the store, proper training,

1261
01:01:53,960 --> 01:01:56,800
Speaker 1: and overall just wanting a say in how things operate

1262
01:01:56,800 --> 01:01:59,160
Speaker 1: in our store. You know, Home Depot has a tendency

1263
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:01,960
Speaker 1: to kind of make blanket decisions that go across all stores.

1264
01:02:02,000 --> 01:02:04,160
Speaker 1: And look, we're one hundred and ten million dollar year store.

1265
01:02:04,440 --> 01:02:06,480
Speaker 1: We have very high volume. It's not going to work

1266
01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:08,120
Speaker 1: out the same that it does in a thirty million

1267
01:02:08,160 --> 01:02:11,120
Speaker 1: dollars year store, you know, and we just felt decisions

1268
01:02:11,120 --> 01:02:13,680
Speaker 1: that were being made, you know, things that were being

1269
01:02:13,680 --> 01:02:15,720
Speaker 1: told to us were just not true. You know. Some

1270
01:02:15,800 --> 01:02:17,160
Speaker 1: of the I guess some of the things that I

1271
01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:19,320
Speaker 1: was able to kind of pool people's attention with was

1272
01:02:19,360 --> 01:02:21,760
Speaker 1: to just speak on you know, some of the value

1273
01:02:21,800 --> 01:02:24,040
Speaker 1: that that store in particular was generating. You know, over

1274
01:02:24,200 --> 01:02:26,200
Speaker 1: over twenty twenty and twenty twenty one, throughout the course

1275
01:02:26,200 --> 01:02:29,160
Speaker 1: of the pandemic, that store made fifty eight million dollars

1276
01:02:29,200 --> 01:02:33,200
Speaker 1: in profit, but only I don't know an exact estimate,

1277
01:02:33,240 --> 01:02:36,120
Speaker 1: but about like two million dollars was actually invested into

1278
01:02:36,120 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 1: the people that work in the store, you know, and

1279
01:02:37,920 --> 01:02:40,800
Speaker 1: it's it's just what to see those large levels of disparity,

1280
01:02:40,840 --> 01:02:43,320
Speaker 1: Like I was just dumbfounded, you know, particularly when you

1281
01:02:43,360 --> 01:02:45,959
Speaker 1: would look at conversations where we would tell people like, hey,

1282
01:02:46,320 --> 01:02:48,880
Speaker 1: we're being overworked. You know, we've got a lot going on.

1283
01:02:48,960 --> 01:02:50,920
Speaker 1: People are freaking out in us because they're not getting

1284
01:02:51,000 --> 01:02:53,480
Speaker 1: enough help. We're getting thrown all across the store. We're

1285
01:02:53,520 --> 01:02:55,360
Speaker 1: being asked to do all of these additional tasks. And

1286
01:02:55,360 --> 01:02:57,560
Speaker 1: then when it comes time to you know, be paid

1287
01:02:57,560 --> 01:02:59,600
Speaker 1: in order to in order to you know, say thank

1288
01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:01,720
Speaker 1: you for for the work that we're putting in, it

1289
01:03:01,760 --> 01:03:03,960
Speaker 1: was all, well, the company can't afford at the investments

1290
01:03:03,960 --> 01:03:06,440
Speaker 1: that they've made in compensation over the last couple of years,

1291
01:03:06,800 --> 01:03:08,640
Speaker 1: you know, has has kind of expended them a bit.

1292
01:03:08,680 --> 01:03:10,720
Speaker 1: And it's like, well, you guys had fifteen billion dollars

1293
01:03:10,760 --> 01:03:13,240
Speaker 1: to spend blot five bags last year. Maybe spend a

1294
01:03:13,280 --> 01:03:15,200
Speaker 1: little bit lesser stocks and spend a little bit more

1295
01:03:15,240 --> 01:03:16,320
Speaker 1: on us. You know, at the end of the day,

1296
01:03:16,320 --> 01:03:18,640
Speaker 1: you wouldn't have that money doing the work that we're doing.

1297
01:03:19,120 --> 01:03:21,000
Speaker 1: I think that is an excellent point. One that I

1298
01:03:21,080 --> 01:03:24,840
Speaker 1: believe will resonate with our audience. It also strikes me,

1299
01:03:24,880 --> 01:03:27,520
Speaker 1: I mean, part of why this is significant is, first

1300
01:03:27,520 --> 01:03:29,560
Speaker 1: of all, Home Depot is a company that did extraordinarily

1301
01:03:29,560 --> 01:03:31,800
Speaker 1: well during the pandemic. People were stuck at home, they

1302
01:03:31,840 --> 01:03:34,240
Speaker 1: decided to invest in their space and making their space

1303
01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:36,720
Speaker 1: better in all kinds of DIY projects and making sour

1304
01:03:36,800 --> 01:03:38,840
Speaker 1: dough bread and whatever like that was all happening during

1305
01:03:38,840 --> 01:03:41,920
Speaker 1: the pandemic. So I'm sure you all were completely swamped.

1306
01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:45,520
Speaker 1: I know they were making huge profits, so the opportunity

1307
01:03:45,560 --> 01:03:47,920
Speaker 1: to be able to reward the workers who help them

1308
01:03:47,920 --> 01:03:51,280
Speaker 1: to make those profits is certainly available to them. Is

1309
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:55,280
Speaker 1: that big picture? Are you hearing that from your co workers?

1310
01:03:55,560 --> 01:03:58,200
Speaker 1: Like that big picture? Is that a concern for them?

1311
01:03:58,600 --> 01:04:01,120
Speaker 1: Do you think that the hacked the pandemic and the

1312
01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:02,840
Speaker 1: way they were treated, do you think that was kind

1313
01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:05,040
Speaker 1: of an eye opening experience because that seems to be

1314
01:04:05,080 --> 01:04:08,160
Speaker 1: a similar thread throughout a lot of these efforts and

1315
01:04:08,240 --> 01:04:10,040
Speaker 1: even through a lot of the things we're seeing throughout

1316
01:04:10,040 --> 01:04:12,440
Speaker 1: the workforce, including you know, white collar service sector and

1317
01:04:12,480 --> 01:04:14,960
Speaker 1: blue collar workers. Is it just changed the way they

1318
01:04:14,960 --> 01:04:18,840
Speaker 1: were thinking about their job. Yeah? Absolutely, I mean I

1319
01:04:18,920 --> 01:04:21,200
Speaker 1: think one of my coworkers said it perfectly when when

1320
01:04:21,240 --> 01:04:23,480
Speaker 1: our district HR person came for the store to see us,

1321
01:04:23,520 --> 01:04:26,360
Speaker 1: and she said, honestly, we felt abandoned. You know, they

1322
01:04:26,360 --> 01:04:28,800
Speaker 1: didn't come into the store for about a year and

1323
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:30,640
Speaker 1: an interesting tidbit for us, and I'm sure it can

1324
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:34,320
Speaker 1: probably resonated other stores district. Didn't walk in for about

1325
01:04:34,360 --> 01:04:36,640
Speaker 1: a year, and when we had our first walk when

1326
01:04:36,680 --> 01:04:39,240
Speaker 1: they came back, we got rip the shreds. We got

1327
01:04:39,280 --> 01:04:41,640
Speaker 1: you know, criticis on everything that was wrong with the store,

1328
01:04:41,680 --> 01:04:43,680
Speaker 1: and it's like, you know, is this is this what

1329
01:04:43,840 --> 01:04:46,960
Speaker 1: you guys really think? Like you like, people were getting threatened,

1330
01:04:46,960 --> 01:04:48,760
Speaker 1: People were like there's a guy that got beat up

1331
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:50,800
Speaker 1: and carjacked out in the parking lot, Like you know,

1332
01:04:50,880 --> 01:04:53,120
Speaker 1: somebody had to go get checking the mental hospital for

1333
01:04:53,160 --> 01:04:56,000
Speaker 1: working at thirty two hour shift straight. Like there are

1334
01:04:56,040 --> 01:04:58,760
Speaker 1: some serious issues in some serious concerns that are happening

1335
01:04:58,800 --> 01:05:01,040
Speaker 1: in this building. And again, like I tried my best

1336
01:05:01,040 --> 01:05:03,040
Speaker 1: to be fair. You know, I'm not I'm not somebody

1337
01:05:03,080 --> 01:05:04,600
Speaker 1: when when I'm trying to get something done, I don't

1338
01:05:04,600 --> 01:05:06,320
Speaker 1: want to be like super combative. I don't want to

1339
01:05:06,680 --> 01:05:08,840
Speaker 1: you know, try and come as personal character. But I

1340
01:05:08,840 --> 01:05:10,840
Speaker 1: tried to give them the opportunity to say like, hey,

1341
01:05:10,920 --> 01:05:13,439
Speaker 1: like we know the numbers, we know how you guys

1342
01:05:13,480 --> 01:05:16,000
Speaker 1: are doing, and we're just not seeing the effort, right.

1343
01:05:16,080 --> 01:05:17,560
Speaker 1: You know. One of the things that they're trying to

1344
01:05:17,680 --> 01:05:19,080
Speaker 1: kind of do right now in the statements that they're

1345
01:05:19,120 --> 01:05:21,200
Speaker 1: making is oh, well, you know, I'm uninformed when it

1346
01:05:21,280 --> 01:05:22,840
Speaker 1: comes to the idea of the union and what it

1347
01:05:22,880 --> 01:05:24,720
Speaker 1: is that they can get done. But if you guys

1348
01:05:24,720 --> 01:05:27,360
Speaker 1: were to walk into my store right now, they've literally

1349
01:05:27,400 --> 01:05:30,200
Speaker 1: doubled their triple the payroll with all of the salary

1350
01:05:30,280 --> 01:05:32,040
Speaker 1: managers in there, with all the help that they're getting in.

1351
01:05:32,080 --> 01:05:33,720
Speaker 1: So it's like, you guys can go and you can

1352
01:05:33,720 --> 01:05:35,960
Speaker 1: invest all of this, you know, to prevent a union.

1353
01:05:36,000 --> 01:05:38,120
Speaker 1: But you can't, you know, invest this, you know, in

1354
01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:40,560
Speaker 1: a proactive manner to take care of the people that

1355
01:05:40,600 --> 01:05:42,200
Speaker 1: took care of you, right because you want to you

1356
01:05:42,240 --> 01:05:44,040
Speaker 1: want to brand yourselves as well, we're taking care of

1357
01:05:44,040 --> 01:05:47,160
Speaker 1: our essential workers. We're looking out for our people. Where

1358
01:05:47,240 --> 01:05:49,919
Speaker 1: is it we don't feel it? You know, it wasn't

1359
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:51,800
Speaker 1: an e petition was filed that I could see the

1360
01:05:51,840 --> 01:05:54,240
Speaker 1: hope in people's eyes in that store. You know, before

1361
01:05:54,320 --> 01:05:56,280
Speaker 1: then everyone had the life locked out of them. Sorry,

1362
01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:58,200
Speaker 1: go ahead, I was just going to say. It does

1363
01:05:58,240 --> 01:05:59,800
Speaker 1: remind me so much of some of the things that

1364
01:06:00,200 --> 01:06:02,680
Speaker 1: Chris Mauls told us about when he was fighting for

1365
01:06:03,120 --> 01:06:06,440
Speaker 1: the Amazon union. Is they tried to paint him as like, oh,

1366
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:09,640
Speaker 1: he was stupid. I'm the famous like always in articulate,

1367
01:06:09,720 --> 01:06:12,960
Speaker 1: he's not smart, And they really tried to persuade people

1368
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:15,040
Speaker 1: like this guy doesn't really know what he's doing. And

1369
01:06:15,080 --> 01:06:17,000
Speaker 1: I actually think some of the large unions here too.

1370
01:06:17,040 --> 01:06:18,920
Speaker 1: I think that's why there was a reluctance among some

1371
01:06:18,960 --> 01:06:21,320
Speaker 1: progressive politicians even to back them, because there was like,

1372
01:06:21,360 --> 01:06:23,840
Speaker 1: all this guy, he'd never done this before, he doesn't

1373
01:06:23,840 --> 01:06:26,240
Speaker 1: really know what he's up to. But talk to us about.

1374
01:06:26,720 --> 01:06:29,080
Speaker 1: My understanding is you are going a similar path. You're

1375
01:06:29,560 --> 01:06:34,080
Speaker 1: forming a home depot specific grassroots workers union. What made

1376
01:06:34,080 --> 01:06:36,520
Speaker 1: you decide to go in that direction run than going

1377
01:06:36,520 --> 01:06:39,000
Speaker 1: to one of the larger, more established unions that could

1378
01:06:39,040 --> 01:06:41,120
Speaker 1: you know, give you that suppoor, give you that guidance,

1379
01:06:41,160 --> 01:06:45,400
Speaker 1: and give you that funding up front. So again, I mean,

1380
01:06:45,440 --> 01:06:47,560
Speaker 1: look shout out to Chris Mallas. You know, watching a

1381
01:06:47,600 --> 01:06:49,720
Speaker 1: lot of interviews with him, whether it was with you guys,

1382
01:06:49,720 --> 01:06:51,960
Speaker 1: you know, breakfast club and a bunch of different places.

1383
01:06:52,000 --> 01:06:53,880
Speaker 1: You know, that was kind of the framework that I

1384
01:06:53,960 --> 01:06:56,200
Speaker 1: tried to follow, just because I was like, all right, like, look,

1385
01:06:56,400 --> 01:06:58,560
Speaker 1: this is about organizing, right. The point of it is

1386
01:06:58,600 --> 01:07:01,200
Speaker 1: to garner the face the people, you know, and I

1387
01:07:01,240 --> 01:07:02,720
Speaker 1: was like, look, these are people that I've worked with

1388
01:07:02,760 --> 01:07:04,400
Speaker 1: for five and a half years. You know, I was

1389
01:07:04,440 --> 01:07:06,800
Speaker 1: a supervisor in that store, and you know, I did

1390
01:07:06,800 --> 01:07:08,640
Speaker 1: my best to try and help people however I could,

1391
01:07:08,920 --> 01:07:10,840
Speaker 1: and that curried me a lot of favor and a

1392
01:07:10,840 --> 01:07:13,280
Speaker 1: lot of trust. So it was a matter of how

1393
01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:15,000
Speaker 1: do we deliver on that trust. And you know, there

1394
01:07:15,000 --> 01:07:17,120
Speaker 1: had been attempts to unize in my store before that

1395
01:07:17,160 --> 01:07:19,800
Speaker 1: had been unsuccessful. You know, a lot of people kind

1396
01:07:19,840 --> 01:07:21,920
Speaker 1: of looking around saying, oh, we're a little bit skeptical

1397
01:07:21,960 --> 01:07:24,000
Speaker 1: of any outsiders coming and saying hey, we're here to

1398
01:07:24,000 --> 01:07:26,120
Speaker 1: help you. So I said, look, you know, honestly, I

1399
01:07:26,120 --> 01:07:28,160
Speaker 1: feel that I have the wherewithal the capacity to get

1400
01:07:28,160 --> 01:07:30,800
Speaker 1: this done. You know, it takes a firm resolve, and

1401
01:07:30,840 --> 01:07:32,920
Speaker 1: it takes remembering that, hey, you're fighting for your people.

1402
01:07:33,040 --> 01:07:34,440
Speaker 1: And again, as I could see, you know, in the

1403
01:07:34,480 --> 01:07:37,720
Speaker 1: conversations that would be had with the different associates there

1404
01:07:37,760 --> 01:07:39,960
Speaker 1: whenever corporate will come through and they'd be talking to

1405
01:07:40,600 --> 01:07:42,960
Speaker 1: individuals and you would say, oh, yeah, we care about you,

1406
01:07:43,000 --> 01:07:46,200
Speaker 1: we really respect you, and it's like you're not showing it.

1407
01:07:46,880 --> 01:07:48,040
Speaker 1: You know. At the end of the day, I could

1408
01:07:48,040 --> 01:07:49,439
Speaker 1: sit here and I could say a bunch of nice

1409
01:07:49,440 --> 01:07:52,919
Speaker 1: things to my colleagues and to the employees that work

1410
01:07:53,000 --> 01:07:55,080
Speaker 1: with me, you know, but it's up to me to

1411
01:07:55,120 --> 01:07:57,400
Speaker 1: show them right, not just to say things, but to

1412
01:07:57,440 --> 01:07:59,480
Speaker 1: actually do things. And you guys are three hundred million

1413
01:07:59,520 --> 01:08:02,600
Speaker 1: dollar company like you have the capacity to. It's just

1414
01:08:02,640 --> 01:08:05,040
Speaker 1: a matter of it too, you know. And that's just

1415
01:08:05,080 --> 01:08:08,160
Speaker 1: what I saw, was was that there was no choice too, right.

1416
01:08:08,280 --> 01:08:09,880
Speaker 1: You know, there's half a million people who work at

1417
01:08:09,880 --> 01:08:12,000
Speaker 1: home depots, one of the largest employers in the country,

1418
01:08:12,040 --> 01:08:14,480
Speaker 1: so I think that your experience probably resonates with a

1419
01:08:14,480 --> 01:08:16,479
Speaker 1: lot of them. Hopefully they watched the show. So we

1420
01:08:16,520 --> 01:08:18,880
Speaker 1: really appreciate you joining us, Vince. It means a lot

1421
01:08:18,880 --> 01:08:20,479
Speaker 1: to hear what you said about us, and we wish

1422
01:08:20,560 --> 01:08:22,800
Speaker 1: you the best of luck, keep us updated and we

1423
01:08:22,880 --> 01:08:25,200
Speaker 1: happy to have you back on. Honored to talk to you, Evince.

1424
01:08:25,200 --> 01:08:28,160
Speaker 1: Thanks for taking the time. Yeah, thank you guys so much.

1425
01:08:28,200 --> 01:08:30,080
Speaker 1: And just again, thank you guys for caring. Our store

1426
01:08:30,120 --> 01:08:32,840
Speaker 1: really appreciates all the coverage we're getting. Thank you, sir. Yeah,

1427
01:08:32,840 --> 01:08:35,440
Speaker 1: it's truly our pleasure at least we can do. Absolutely.

1428
01:08:36,000 --> 01:08:38,480
Speaker 1: Thank you guys so much for watching. We really appreciate it.

1429
01:08:38,520 --> 01:08:41,679
Speaker 1: As we got we said live show Chicago, it's here,

1430
01:08:41,880 --> 01:08:43,719
Speaker 1: you can watch the clips. I think it was awesome

1431
01:08:43,760 --> 01:08:45,479
Speaker 1: and it's going to be even more awesome in Chicago.

1432
01:08:45,479 --> 01:08:47,680
Speaker 1: We learned a couple of lessons and then number two,

1433
01:08:47,680 --> 01:08:49,920
Speaker 1: we've got the discount going on. You can help support

1434
01:08:49,920 --> 01:08:51,840
Speaker 1: our work. It's interviews like that Crystal that make it

1435
01:08:51,840 --> 01:08:54,479
Speaker 1: all work. I can't tell you when they reached out,

1436
01:08:54,600 --> 01:08:57,280
Speaker 1: actually Jonah Furman reached out, was like, you know, Vince

1437
01:08:57,360 --> 01:08:59,280
Speaker 1: is a fan of breaking points, and like you guys

1438
01:08:59,560 --> 01:09:01,360
Speaker 1: were part of what gave them this, I mean huge.

1439
01:09:01,520 --> 01:09:03,800
Speaker 1: That's like, I can't tell you how much it means

1440
01:09:03,800 --> 01:09:07,080
Speaker 1: to it. I realized, like everything you improve my relationship

1441
01:09:07,080 --> 01:09:10,519
Speaker 1: with my dad. Those two it's like, wow, we do

1442
01:09:10,560 --> 01:09:13,120
Speaker 1: that with even like three people. It's way more than

1443
01:09:13,120 --> 01:09:15,559
Speaker 1: we ever could have imagined. So thank you guys so

1444
01:09:15,640 --> 01:09:18,599
Speaker 1: much for making it possible. We are so incredibly grateful

1445
01:09:18,600 --> 01:09:23,400
Speaker 1: to you. Enjoy counterpoints tomorrow tomorrow, Joycountably, we've got the

1446
01:09:23,439 --> 01:09:25,080
Speaker 1: discount going on right now. If you want to help

1447
01:09:25,080 --> 01:09:28,639
Speaker 1: support them, help support continued expansion. It means so much

1448
01:09:28,640 --> 01:09:30,479
Speaker 1: to us. Link is down in the description for all

1449
01:09:30,479 --> 01:09:32,960
Speaker 1: that stuff. We'll see you all next week. Love y'all,

1450
01:09:33,000 --> 01:09:33,719
Speaker 1: see you next week.