1
00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,720
Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

2
00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:13,000
Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading in the court. Ten

3
00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,760
Speaker 2: seconds of maning to just go show me up to

4
00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:17,160
Speaker 2: the basket. Under the basket.

5
00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:21,720
Speaker 3: It's the true for the wind God pick go Amerracle.

6
00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:27,200
Speaker 4: I'm just sup the water hit that one from the

7
00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:27,920
Speaker 4: parking lot.

8
00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:31,000
Speaker 1: What's up the generation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

9
00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:37,280
Speaker 1: Campus Podcast. This is the College Basketball Sweet sixteen betting preview.

10
00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:42,360
Speaker 1: I'm stucky in Joining me today are my fellow BBOC

11
00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:49,560
Speaker 1: co host Mike Calabrese and Greg Waddell. We are down

12
00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:56,480
Speaker 1: to just sixteen and it's a pretty chalky sixteen. We

13
00:00:56,640 --> 00:01:01,120
Speaker 1: have fifteen single digit seeds plus Art saw Calipari, the

14
00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:06,600
Speaker 1: Cinderella of the dance right now. But there's just four

15
00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:09,720
Speaker 1: leagues that are left and it's primarily three and it's

16
00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:13,440
Speaker 1: the fewest ever. The SEC has seven, the Big twelve

17
00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:18,000
Speaker 1: and Big ten have four, and then you have Duke.

18
00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,280
Speaker 1: So we are set up for some pretty good matchups

19
00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,000
Speaker 1: in the Sweet sixteen as a result of the lack

20
00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,800
Speaker 1: of upsets, and then beyond, looking at some of the

21
00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:32,440
Speaker 1: potential Elite eight Final four national title matchups are certainly

22
00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:37,560
Speaker 1: mouth watering. I this is we could have the first

23
00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:39,840
Speaker 1: could be the first time since twenty sixteen we could

24
00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:42,120
Speaker 1: have all four number one seeds in the Elite eight,

25
00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:43,959
Speaker 1: and in that year we have one of the best

26
00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,520
Speaker 1: all time national titles between Villan, Nova and UNC. But

27
00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,600
Speaker 1: maybe we're due for some more chaos before that happens,

28
00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:55,760
Speaker 1: because number one seeds over the past three tournaments just

29
00:01:55,880 --> 00:02:00,520
Speaker 1: three and six straight up in the Sweet sixteen. Two

30
00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:03,040
Speaker 1: of those losses were by Houston over the past two

31
00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:06,240
Speaker 1: seasons as the number one seed in the Sweet sixteen.

32
00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:09,920
Speaker 1: So a lot of chalk, a lot of Power Conference teams.

33
00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:17,359
Speaker 1: Let's dive right end will go chronologically, starting off with

34
00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:24,840
Speaker 1: BYU and Alabama in Newark. Crazy that people in New

35
00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:28,400
Speaker 1: Jersey camp had on the East region. Legally, that's a

36
00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:30,919
Speaker 1: conversation for another day. Alabama five to five and a

37
00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,640
Speaker 1: half point favorite here. Total one seventy five and a half.

38
00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,720
Speaker 1: If this total clears closes above one seventy five will

39
00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:42,639
Speaker 1: be the highest total in the NCAA tournament since nineteen

40
00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:47,600
Speaker 1: ninety five. So what can you expect here, Well, just

41
00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:52,360
Speaker 1: look at the total points. Both offenses are electric, Both

42
00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:57,480
Speaker 1: defenses have some holes that can be exploited. This one

43
00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:04,560
Speaker 1: should feature of fireworks on CBS tipping off at seven

44
00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:11,959
Speaker 1: oh nine Eastern EYU escaped with a win over Wisconsin.

45
00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,679
Speaker 1: They've had one of the toughest paths playing DCU and

46
00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,920
Speaker 1: then Wisconsin, although they benefited from the location a bit

47
00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:21,880
Speaker 1: and the altitude, which they won't enjoy here having to

48
00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:26,120
Speaker 1: go all the way across the country in non altitude. Meanwhile,

49
00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:30,000
Speaker 1: Alabama took care of teams that it was just had

50
00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:35,280
Speaker 1: more talent then and Saint Mary's also couldn't make a shot,

51
00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:39,520
Speaker 1: which didn't help their case, But Alabama played that game out,

52
00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:43,240
Speaker 1: wanted to play relative to what the gals wanted to do,

53
00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:51,240
Speaker 1: so Mary's todd excuse me. Cougar's tied in Newark Thursday night. Greg,

54
00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:53,760
Speaker 1: I'll go to you first. Who do you like here?

55
00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:58,040
Speaker 5: Well, my Cougars have made me and hopefully many others

56
00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:01,040
Speaker 5: so much money in the final third of this season

57
00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:03,120
Speaker 5: that it's only right for me to double and triple

58
00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:06,800
Speaker 5: down on them here. I genuinely will tell you when

59
00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:08,840
Speaker 5: I think this run is coming to an end. Not

60
00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,080
Speaker 5: gonna blindly pick this team every game, no matter how

61
00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,440
Speaker 5: much I love them. I think they're gonna win this game.

62
00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,480
Speaker 5: I'm taking them on the moneyline plus one seventy. Look,

63
00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,080
Speaker 5: there's a lot of similarities between these teams. It's not identical.

64
00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:22,640
Speaker 5: This is not NATO's ball to a te but both

65
00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:23,840
Speaker 5: these teams will get out and run.

66
00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:25,520
Speaker 2: Both these teams are gonna bomb threes.

67
00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,400
Speaker 5: They want to win the three point volume battle, and

68
00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,640
Speaker 5: I think that plays into BYU's hands because they are

69
00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:33,960
Speaker 5: the better shooting team here. And if there is a

70
00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,159
Speaker 5: weakness for BYU's defense, it's that they usually do end

71
00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,480
Speaker 5: up giving up as many threes as they take. I

72
00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,240
Speaker 5: will kind of live with that against Alabama, knowing that

73
00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:46,839
Speaker 5: BYU has better shooters on the floor than Alabama does.

74
00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:48,600
Speaker 2: Mark Sears has really struggled lately.

75
00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,800
Speaker 5: I will say, if you're a positive regression guy, he's

76
00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,119
Speaker 5: probably due for a huge game. He's five for thirty

77
00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:58,000
Speaker 5: five from three in their last six games. It's fourteen percent.

78
00:04:59,360 --> 00:04:59,560
Speaker 6: To me.

79
00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,040
Speaker 5: I watched this Alabama team play right now. I think

80
00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:04,760
Speaker 5: they've been fortunate to get to this point. Say Mary's

81
00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,479
Speaker 5: couldn't hit a shot, give them credit. They played well defensively,

82
00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,039
Speaker 5: but filon doesn't look right to me, and Sears has

83
00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,560
Speaker 5: been cold for too many weeks in a row since

84
00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,280
Speaker 5: February eleventh. This BYU team is the fourth best team

85
00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,200
Speaker 5: in the country. The only three teams better than BYU

86
00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:22,680
Speaker 5: in the last six weeks are Duke, Houston and Florida.

87
00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,440
Speaker 5: You're catching a team that's been that good that since

88
00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,920
Speaker 5: they switched their personnel, got Mowat mag into the starting lineup,

89
00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:31,560
Speaker 5: and just figured out the right combination of the puzzle pieces.

90
00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,240
Speaker 2: Here they are playing like a one seed.

91
00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:37,240
Speaker 5: You're getting them plus one seventy against a very three

92
00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,120
Speaker 5: point dependent team that's worse at shooting. I think you've

93
00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:42,160
Speaker 5: got to roll the dice, take the value on the

94
00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:43,680
Speaker 5: underdog to win this game out right here.

95
00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:49,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like BYU two. This Alabama team, to me,

96
00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:53,280
Speaker 1: they just they don't profile as a true national title contender. Now.

97
00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:57,680
Speaker 1: Their offense is electric and they should be able to

98
00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:00,120
Speaker 1: play their game here and when they're hitting shots like that,

99
00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:01,840
Speaker 1: they could beat anyone. No One wants to see this

100
00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:06,280
Speaker 1: team because of their potential offensive firepower, but their shot

101
00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:10,360
Speaker 1: volume profile is very, very troubling, and just look at

102
00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:12,200
Speaker 1: some of these numbers in February first. This kind of

103
00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,280
Speaker 1: sums up the story for Alabama and why I think

104
00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:16,680
Speaker 1: that their ceiling is a little lower than some of

105
00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,600
Speaker 1: the elite top seeds. Effective field goal percentage outside the

106
00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:23,160
Speaker 1: top one hundred two point this is all defense two

107
00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:26,160
Speaker 1: point percentage outside the top one hundred. Turnover rate force

108
00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,960
Speaker 1: three fifty third, FAU rate two seventy third. That's always

109
00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:33,040
Speaker 1: a bad combination not turning teams over and foiling too much,

110
00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:36,080
Speaker 1: and then defensive rebounding one hundred and fiftyth So just

111
00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:40,960
Speaker 1: the shot volume and defensive wards are just a little

112
00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:42,920
Speaker 1: too big for me. And I don't think there's that

113
00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:47,080
Speaker 1: much separating these two teams. So yeah, I think that

114
00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,520
Speaker 1: there's value on the Cougars, even if you know they're

115
00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,360
Speaker 1: in Newark and it's not in altitude, which does worry

116
00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:55,440
Speaker 1: me a bit, and healthy, healthier Grant Nelson does make

117
00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:59,120
Speaker 1: a difference for Alabama. Now, the one thing that does

118
00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:06,080
Speaker 1: scare me, as you mentioned, BYU's defense. Now, Alabama's defense

119
00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:08,320
Speaker 1: is a better job of taking away the three given

120
00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:12,440
Speaker 1: their structure BYU due to some of the athletic deficiencies

121
00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:16,040
Speaker 1: on their defense, they play a more passive, packed in defense.

122
00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:19,160
Speaker 1: You'll see some zone, but they basically are just daring

123
00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:24,960
Speaker 1: teams to shoot from three, which could backfire. Against Alabama.

124
00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:28,280
Speaker 1: They have been shooting much better the second half of

125
00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:31,200
Speaker 1: the year as a team, thirty seven point nine percent

126
00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:34,880
Speaker 1: since February first, So that's worrisome. Like you could have

127
00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:38,880
Speaker 1: you could have an Alabama game where they go eighteen

128
00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:42,520
Speaker 1: of thirty five from three, right, So like you just

129
00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:44,160
Speaker 1: have to live with that because I think that this

130
00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:47,600
Speaker 1: number is too high and I don't think BYU is

131
00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:53,600
Speaker 1: getting enough respect. So yeah, I'm going to be on BYU.

132
00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:59,400
Speaker 1: I also like, don't mind if you like one of

133
00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:02,760
Speaker 1: these teams that don't love them or want to trade

134
00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,200
Speaker 1: this game. The totals one seventy five and a half.

135
00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:08,080
Speaker 1: There's going to be some runs in this game. So

136
00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,760
Speaker 1: if you want to wait to bet this game live

137
00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:14,240
Speaker 1: to trade it back and forth, this should be back

138
00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:18,120
Speaker 1: and forth and it should be highly entertaining. Calberes, are

139
00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,080
Speaker 1: you on board with the Mormons? Yeah?

140
00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,560
Speaker 6: Clean sweep for BYU. Give me the money line here,

141
00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:25,840
Speaker 6: Just to piggyback on some of the points that you

142
00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,720
Speaker 6: guys already made. They were sped up in terms of

143
00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:30,600
Speaker 6: having to play at a faster rate in the Big

144
00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,000
Speaker 6: Twelve against three separate opponents Arizona Central, Florida, Okahoma State.

145
00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:35,480
Speaker 6: They went three and one straight up and three and

146
00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,960
Speaker 6: one against the spread. There, Alabama usually can pull teams

147
00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,080
Speaker 6: out of their comfort zone and make them play at

148
00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,199
Speaker 6: that frenetic pace and it works in their favor. Not

149
00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,000
Speaker 6: the case here with BYU. And then on top of it,

150
00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:49,280
Speaker 6: BYU made a big switch in terms of their overall

151
00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:51,199
Speaker 6: strategy and the plays that they were calling to go

152
00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:53,319
Speaker 6: to the rim a little bit more aggressively, and that's

153
00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,160
Speaker 6: when their whole season kind of flipped. They went six

154
00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,720
Speaker 6: and six in Big Twelve play. Then they went from

155
00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:00,040
Speaker 6: two hundred and ninety first in foul shot rate to

156
00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,839
Speaker 6: about one hundred and sixtieth, and that difference I think

157
00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:05,000
Speaker 6: helps them smooth out what would have been some of

158
00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:07,679
Speaker 6: those scoring roles when some of their perimeter shots aren't falling.

159
00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:09,880
Speaker 6: So now all of a sudden, they're just consistently a

160
00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:14,479
Speaker 6: threat almost every single possession offensively. And I agree Alabama

161
00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:17,160
Speaker 6: when you look at their work over the last six weeks,

162
00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,280
Speaker 6: they've been really good against anyone who's not elite until

163
00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:22,079
Speaker 6: they get into the tournament and then they play with

164
00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,160
Speaker 6: their food Against Bobby Mo that game was tied with

165
00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:28,040
Speaker 6: seven minutes to go, and Saint Mary's making three triples

166
00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,360
Speaker 6: in that entire game. It's like backing a team and

167
00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:32,320
Speaker 6: they lose three fumbles in a game, It's like they

168
00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:34,640
Speaker 6: were never going to win that game shooting that poorly

169
00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:37,200
Speaker 6: from long range. So I'm not really sure how much

170
00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,040
Speaker 6: that speaks to Alabama's ability to run away from teams.

171
00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:42,000
Speaker 6: At the very least, I think BYU is going to

172
00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:44,120
Speaker 6: keep it inside this number, and I would prefer to

173
00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:46,440
Speaker 6: stay with them and their hot hands, and I agree

174
00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:48,600
Speaker 6: stuck in terms of what they do defensively, their top

175
00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,920
Speaker 6: fifty zone rate defense, They're just going to say, Bama

176
00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,160
Speaker 6: shoot up thirty five threes and if as long as

177
00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:57,240
Speaker 6: they don't go thermonuclear, I think that defensive strategy is

178
00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:59,560
Speaker 6: going to be enough to get them into the Elite eight.

179
00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:00,520
Speaker 6: So I'll go BYU.

180
00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:04,360
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to the second game on

181
00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:10,959
Speaker 1: Thursday night between Maryland and Podcast Enemy number one, the

182
00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,679
Speaker 1: Florida Gators. The reason for that is because we have

183
00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:19,360
Speaker 1: our final four features that we have laughter Maryland and

184
00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:23,839
Speaker 1: Texas Tech, and the biggest hurdle standing between those two

185
00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:25,920
Speaker 1: teams is Florida, who's a six and a half seven

186
00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:29,840
Speaker 1: point favorite here total one p fifty around one fifty

187
00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:34,040
Speaker 1: seven to one to fifty eight. I I mean to

188
00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:37,480
Speaker 1: be honest, but that we could have We easily could

189
00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:40,559
Speaker 1: have Colorado State US Yukon here. So I think we

190
00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:43,160
Speaker 1: might get a really good game because both teams can

191
00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:47,160
Speaker 1: just kind of exhale that they feel like they escaped.

192
00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:54,480
Speaker 1: Queen had an incredible game winner against Colorado State and Florida.

193
00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:58,840
Speaker 1: I mean, if Yukon Yukon got better looks that entire game,

194
00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:02,160
Speaker 1: they have hit just a couple more. I think Florida

195
00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:04,520
Speaker 1: is sitting at home right now, so I think they

196
00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:08,400
Speaker 1: both of these teams got a bit fortunate. This game

197
00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,880
Speaker 1: will be played out on the West Coast in San Francisco.

198
00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,559
Speaker 1: Todd Golden will be pretty comfortable there. I think they're

199
00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:21,000
Speaker 1: practicing in San Francisco's gym. For what it's worth, on

200
00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:24,040
Speaker 1: the surface, I think this number is too high just

201
00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:26,040
Speaker 1: based on what I projected as I think it should

202
00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:27,480
Speaker 1: be closer to like four to four and a half.

203
00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:30,360
Speaker 1: So at seven, I don't know if I'll be able

204
00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,959
Speaker 1: to pass up Maryland. There's a couple of things I

205
00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:39,679
Speaker 1: am worried about the like what we saw with Yukon

206
00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,079
Speaker 1: there are some cracks in this Florida defense. If you

207
00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:45,839
Speaker 1: can do some stuff off the ball, Maryland doesn't really

208
00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:49,760
Speaker 1: do that at the same level as Yukon. They also

209
00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:54,160
Speaker 1: aren't super elite on the offensive glass, which is where

210
00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:57,360
Speaker 1: I think you can hurt Florida some. And then I

211
00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:04,280
Speaker 1: know Maryland does a good job on the not getting

212
00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:08,000
Speaker 1: fouls or like twenty sixth in foul rate, but they're

213
00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:11,080
Speaker 1: going up against a lot of size and if they

214
00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:14,640
Speaker 1: cannot afford to get any foul trouble because the depth

215
00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,439
Speaker 1: we've talked about it all year, there's a big fall

216
00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:22,679
Speaker 1: off from their starters to their bench, and Florida's gonna

217
00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:25,400
Speaker 1: be able to get out in transition like marylnd will

218
00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:29,640
Speaker 1: let you do that. That's always dangerous against the Gators.

219
00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:32,640
Speaker 1: I know Maryland's transition defense from an efficiency tempoint isn't good,

220
00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:36,120
Speaker 1: but letting the Gators get out and run is always scary.

221
00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,000
Speaker 1: Florida should be able to get to the rim here

222
00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:40,839
Speaker 1: and then they're probably gonna get some easy buckets and

223
00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:42,960
Speaker 1: Maryland has their bigs at the time, like when they

224
00:12:43,040 --> 00:12:45,360
Speaker 1: go after shot blocks, when do you just have to

225
00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:48,480
Speaker 1: concede a bucket? But Florida's probably gonna be able to

226
00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,520
Speaker 1: get to the rim here. They're probably go be able

227
00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:53,040
Speaker 1: to do some damage on the offensive glass, and then

228
00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,800
Speaker 1: some of the wild cards, you know, the tricks that

229
00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:58,199
Speaker 1: Willard could have up his sleeve, like do you really

230
00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:01,079
Speaker 1: want to go zone against Florida? Probably get crushed the

231
00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,200
Speaker 1: offensive glass. You're hoping they miss threes. That's always dangerous.

232
00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:08,240
Speaker 1: They like the press. Don't really think that's an effective

233
00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:13,480
Speaker 1: strategy against Florida. Who I mean, just on paper can

234
00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:18,040
Speaker 1: shred a press, and from the metrics standpoint, have been

235
00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:20,839
Speaker 1: elite in that department this year. So it's not my

236
00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:25,560
Speaker 1: most favorite matchups stematically, But if Maryland can stay out

237
00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:28,800
Speaker 1: a foul trouble, they're starting five, you know, with Queen

238
00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:32,400
Speaker 1: and Reese down low and then their trio of guys

239
00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:35,719
Speaker 1: on the perimeter who shot over forty percent combined from

240
00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:39,160
Speaker 1: three on close to six hundred attempts this year. They

241
00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:44,719
Speaker 1: can play with anybody. So from a numbers perspective, I

242
00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:46,720
Speaker 1: think the play is Maryland. I think this line has

243
00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:49,800
Speaker 1: gotten a bit too out of control. Greg. I'll throw

244
00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:50,520
Speaker 1: it to you, what do you say?

245
00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:51,439
Speaker 6: You know?

246
00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:54,000
Speaker 5: I have not loved what I've seen from either of

247
00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:57,960
Speaker 5: these teams in this tournament. Obviously, Florida has been phenomenal

248
00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,640
Speaker 5: at points of this season, and the up side is there,

249
00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:01,880
Speaker 5: so is Maryland.

250
00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:02,920
Speaker 2: That's why we have a future.

251
00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:05,959
Speaker 5: We identified that a couple months ago, and I'm happy

252
00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:06,920
Speaker 5: we still have that ticket.

253
00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,360
Speaker 2: Certainly, how this is shaken out, I.

254
00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:13,360
Speaker 5: Just I don't have a good feel for anything in

255
00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:15,679
Speaker 5: this game other than I expect Florida to win. I

256
00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:18,559
Speaker 5: would be pretty stunned if Maryland actually got there. And

257
00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,920
Speaker 5: I agree the number is probably making the valuable side

258
00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:23,560
Speaker 5: here Maryland. So I'm gonna take a little bit of

259
00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:26,880
Speaker 5: an unorthodox play here. I'm gonna take Maryland first half

260
00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,800
Speaker 5: and then Florida to win the game and get plus

261
00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:32,160
Speaker 5: four to seventy five on that. Now, one of my

262
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:35,440
Speaker 5: biggest concerns with Maryland is just their depth or lack

263
00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:39,080
Speaker 5: of it. They play five guys, and I think part

264
00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:42,240
Speaker 5: of their close game struggles this year, where they've lost

265
00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:45,200
Speaker 5: like five or six games on a coin flip, I

266
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:47,080
Speaker 5: do think comes down to the fact that at the

267
00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,320
Speaker 5: end of games they just are a little bit shaky.

268
00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,640
Speaker 5: Jacobe Gillespie's made a lot of strange plays in weird spots,

269
00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,320
Speaker 5: and quite frankly, I thought they were very fortunate. It

270
00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:58,920
Speaker 5: was another defensive mistake late that let Colorado stake get

271
00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:01,480
Speaker 5: an open look and then Derek Queen bailed them out

272
00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:03,440
Speaker 5: big time to get that win.

273
00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:06,440
Speaker 2: I do think Florida the.

274
00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:08,400
Speaker 5: Fact that they go eight deep, they play three guys

275
00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:10,880
Speaker 5: off the bench, they play fifteen plus minutes, they have

276
00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:14,360
Speaker 5: the athleticism advantage at the garden wings spots. Here, I

277
00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:18,960
Speaker 5: think they will wear down the non Maryland Biggs guards

278
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:21,320
Speaker 5: and wings. I think it's a huge advantage Florida. They're

279
00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:23,400
Speaker 5: gonna need Derek Queen and Julian Reice to be stellar.

280
00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,800
Speaker 5: I do think they can be because, quite frankly, Yukon's

281
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:29,560
Speaker 5: Biggs I'll play Florida's Biggs for much of that game,

282
00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:32,960
Speaker 5: and if Samson Johnson's getting a double double, I think

283
00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:35,160
Speaker 5: Derek Queen could just dominate here, at least in the

284
00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:38,000
Speaker 5: first half. So that's my only angle that I see

285
00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:40,000
Speaker 5: some value in here. Like I said, I'd be surprised

286
00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,720
Speaker 5: if Florida doesn't win the game. But it's two teams

287
00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:44,640
Speaker 5: that I'm not exactly rushing to put a lot of

288
00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:46,800
Speaker 5: resources behind. As they advance in this tournament.

289
00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:50,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned Maryland's close game losses this year eight

290
00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:57,240
Speaker 1: losses by four, five, six, four, two, three, three and one.

291
00:15:58,080 --> 00:15:59,680
Speaker 1: So they haven't lost the game by more than six

292
00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:03,480
Speaker 1: and have come up on the short end more times

293
00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:07,960
Speaker 1: than not in those games that are coin flips until

294
00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:10,760
Speaker 1: the most important one of the year on Sunday against

295
00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:14,040
Speaker 1: Colorado State. Calbray's what are you saying? Yeah, I would

296
00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:14,480
Speaker 1: love to know.

297
00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,520
Speaker 6: Shooting this up to Evan Abrams, our director of research,

298
00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:19,720
Speaker 6: has there been a team that's ever made it to

299
00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:23,240
Speaker 6: the Sweet sixteen that is catching more than they've lost

300
00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,520
Speaker 6: by the entire season. They've been inside this number the

301
00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:27,760
Speaker 6: entire season, so I feel like that's got to be

302
00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:30,800
Speaker 6: a pretty rare occurrence. And also I like Greg's play

303
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,640
Speaker 6: because Maryland is an elite team at least scoring margin

304
00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 6: in the first half, they don't usually have slow starts. Now, granted,

305
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:39,640
Speaker 6: Colorado State got on them there in that last game,

306
00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:41,920
Speaker 6: so recency bias plays a part in this. But I

307
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,200
Speaker 6: think a big element of playing up against the number

308
00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,120
Speaker 6: one seed in your region is to make sure that

309
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:49,000
Speaker 6: you emotionally feel stable, that you belong, that you're not

310
00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:51,560
Speaker 6: playing catch up. You get to the second TV timeout

311
00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:53,840
Speaker 6: in you'ar down ten points and a little bit of that,

312
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:57,680
Speaker 6: you know, fear factor and imposter syndrome, you know, filters

313
00:16:57,680 --> 00:16:59,560
Speaker 6: in a little bit. I'm going to take them plus

314
00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:02,360
Speaker 6: the points the full game, though I agree the Crab

315
00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 6: five what they do with their starting lineup. To say

316
00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:06,879
Speaker 6: he has a short bench is an understatement. He's just

317
00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:10,080
Speaker 6: basically riding with those guys. For that reason, I'm going

318
00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,520
Speaker 6: to keep my finger on the live bet option because

319
00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:15,240
Speaker 6: if they get in any foul trouble, let alone, you know,

320
00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,240
Speaker 6: fatigue play affect or down the stretch in the final

321
00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,480
Speaker 6: five minutes of this game. But they can ill afford

322
00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:23,240
Speaker 6: getting fouls on Queen or Reese early in this game,

323
00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:25,600
Speaker 6: and Maryland can just throw bodies at them off of

324
00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,120
Speaker 6: the bench. So if that were to happen and someone

325
00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:30,560
Speaker 6: gets their second foul inside the first five or six

326
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:32,760
Speaker 6: minutes of this game, I may look to buy out

327
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:33,800
Speaker 6: a little bit from this bet.

328
00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:35,600
Speaker 2: But I think Marilyn's the right play here.

329
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:40,080
Speaker 6: I think it's too many points, and essentially I like

330
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 6: what the guard play brings to the table. I know

331
00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:45,000
Speaker 6: Gillespie has his you know, goofy moments with turnovers, but

332
00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:47,479
Speaker 6: him and Reese can both potentially go out and get

333
00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,080
Speaker 6: you twenty points. So I think from a starting five perspective,

334
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,720
Speaker 6: they're balanced enough to make this a coin flip game

335
00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:54,920
Speaker 6: down the stretch. So I'll take North the two possessions.

336
00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:56,960
Speaker 1: Yeah. The other thing that we I'll talk about with

337
00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:03,760
Speaker 1: Maryland's lack of depth though, is that if like they

338
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:08,240
Speaker 1: just they can't afford off nights from a couple of

339
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:11,160
Speaker 1: their guys, right, like the there's.

340
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,480
Speaker 6: Just not a lot of records coming to save the

341
00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:15,760
Speaker 6: day off the bench. They have no scoring punch to

342
00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,200
Speaker 6: come in and give you fifteen points. That's non existent.

343
00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:21,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, So like they they can't have too many guys

344
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:25,320
Speaker 1: in their starting lineup have and off that especially against

345
00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:30,320
Speaker 1: Florida where you know you saw, I mean, Florida has

346
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 1: a number of guys who can come in and you know,

347
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,280
Speaker 1: pick up some scoring slack if things are a little

348
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:42,359
Speaker 1: cold elsewhere. Maryland certainly doesn't have that luxury. Let's move

349
00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:43,040
Speaker 1: on to the games.

350
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:43,440
Speaker 2: Later.

351
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 1: On Thursday night, nine thirty nine Eastern on CBS, we

352
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 1: have Duke taking on Arizona. This game will be played

353
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 1: in New Yark. Dukes and nine nine and a half

354
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:58,680
Speaker 1: point favorite here total one p fifty three and a half.

355
00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:04,640
Speaker 1: This is a rematch from earlier this year. Duke went

356
00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:11,680
Speaker 1: to McHale and one sixty nine to fifty five completely

357
00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:18,000
Speaker 1: shut down that Arizona offense. So when I first look

358
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:22,160
Speaker 1: at this matchup, it's going to be tough for Arizona.

359
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 1: I mean, that's an obvious statement. But when you've profile Arizona,

360
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:32,680
Speaker 1: the first thing that I always look at personally is

361
00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 1: they want to get out in transition where they're always deadly,

362
00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,960
Speaker 1: and then they want to score at the rim. Both

363
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:46,360
Speaker 1: are impossible against Duke. Duke second percentile frequency and transition

364
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 1: d ninety first efficiency. Rim defense Duke fourth percentile frequency,

365
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:59,880
Speaker 1: ninety third efficiency. So you know, the one like potential

366
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,400
Speaker 1: flaw of Duke is like, hey, their defense isn't as

367
00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 1: dynamic or versatile without a healthy Malik Brown. But without him,

368
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 1: you know they're going to play more drop and I

369
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 1: think that's fine here against Arizona. Arizona's gonna need to

370
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:24,120
Speaker 1: score in the half court. Can they do that consistently enough?

371
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,239
Speaker 1: I don't know. I have my doubts. Now, they've been

372
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 1: red hot from three past seven games. They're fifty nine

373
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 1: of one to thirty six forty three and a half percent.

374
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 1: That increased their season long average from thirty one point

375
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,439
Speaker 1: two percent to thirty three point four percent. Who's been

376
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 1: the biggest driver Caleb Love twenty one to forty three

377
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 1: over the past seven games, forty eight point eight percent.

378
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,359
Speaker 1: Over the first twenty nine games of the year, he

379
00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 1: was a smidge above thirty percent. It's close to fifty

380
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,680
Speaker 1: over the past seven games. He was incredible against Oregon.

381
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:00,920
Speaker 6: Four.

382
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 1: He's the key. I think he's the key to the cover.

383
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 1: He has to have an incredible game here now. If

384
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,160
Speaker 1: he has an awful game, I don't see a path.

385
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,280
Speaker 1: If he has a really good game, Arizona can cover.

386
00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 1: If he has one of those like Caleb Love, Holy

387
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 1: Molly games and Duke is a bit off, I think

388
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,159
Speaker 1: Arizona's gonna probably try to dare him to score. The

389
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,520
Speaker 1: other thing that's scary with Duke is that if Proker

390
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,639
Speaker 1: keeps shooting the way that he's shooting, that's there on

391
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 1: another level. But yeah, I don't I don't love this

392
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,120
Speaker 1: matchup for Arizona just because Duke can neutralize the ways

393
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 1: that they really want to score efficiently in order to

394
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 1: compensate for that Love's gonna have to have a huge

395
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 1: game here, Greg, what are you seeing here in Duke Arizona?

396
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 5: You know this may be my strongest play of Friday.

397
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:52,880
Speaker 5: At least I'm gonna take the favorite. I'm gonna take

398
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,359
Speaker 5: Duke minus thint and a half. I very simply believe

399
00:21:56,560 --> 00:22:01,400
Speaker 5: this is a historically special basketball team that is still underpriced.

400
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 5: They have covered nine consecutive games with a healthy Cooper Flag.

401
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 2: The whole world knows.

402
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:12,159
Speaker 5: How good this Duke team is. Vibes Vegas knows how

403
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 5: good this Duke team is. We're setting numbers minus twenty

404
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 5: five and they're covering. I mean, they are still undervalued,

405
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 5: and specific to this matchup, I think you nailed it, Stuck.

406
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 5: This is entirely dependent on what Caleb Love does. If

407
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 5: you're telling me, I get the opportunity off a great

408
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 5: Caleb Love game to believe that maybe he's not going

409
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 5: to be great against a defense as elite as Duke is,

410
00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:36,439
Speaker 5: both perimeter and inside.

411
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 2: I think you have to take that.

412
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 5: You go through Caleb Love's career, obviously he's had loud

413
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 5: special moments, but every time his team season ends, it

414
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 5: ends with a clunker. Four for fourteen, last year, and

415
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 5: they lost to Clemson three for fifteen in their lost

416
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,680
Speaker 5: year before I think to Virginia in the a SEC

417
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 5: Tournament five for twenty four in that national championship game

418
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:56,360
Speaker 5: where they blew a twenty point lead.

419
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 2: I mean, go on and on.

420
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 5: He always ends the season with a stinker. There's no

421
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,919
Speaker 5: team he's more likely to have a tinker against than

422
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:03,919
Speaker 5: the Duke team that.

423
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 2: Earlier this year at home.

424
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 5: Mind you, he was three for thirteen against before we

425
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 5: even discovered who this Duke team is. They were still

426
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,439
Speaker 5: playing Caleb Foster thirty minutes tonight. At that point they

427
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 5: won by fourteen points in Tucson. I understand Arizona's better

428
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 5: than they were then.

429
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:20,440
Speaker 1: So is Duke.

430
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 5: And if one of these two teams has increased how

431
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 5: good they are by a larger margin than the other,

432
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,360
Speaker 5: it's Duke. They're better now than they were in November

433
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 5: by a larger margin than Arizona has improved. So I'm

434
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 5: gonna jump all over this and hand up. I'll make

435
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 5: a confession real quick. I live bet Baylor after the

436
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 5: first six minutes or so of that game, coming fresh

437
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 5: off of how Yukon made that a real tight game

438
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 5: against Florida, thinking, oh okay, we're gonna have another one.

439
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 5: It's my biggest regret bet of the year. At this point,

440
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 5: they went on like a twenty to two run immediately

441
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 5: after I placed that. Never again in this run, I'm

442
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 5: gonna take Duke to cover.

443
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 6: Galvy's You've kind of lean over here over here because

444
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 6: of the hot three points shooting from Arizona, they only

445
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 6: scored six points in transition in that first meeting. They

446
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 6: have no other bullets here other than to push the

447
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,119
Speaker 6: tempo as fast as possible because Duke's half court defense

448
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 6: is now fortress, Like, you can't get anything inside of

449
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 6: fifteen feet against this team because they have so many

450
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 6: monsters who can just swat everything. So what that says

451
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:23,640
Speaker 6: to me is secondary break, push it off of every rebound,

452
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 6: just go, go, go, go go. That's already philosophically who

453
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 6: they are. But I think what's missing here is we

454
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,159
Speaker 6: keep talking about how great the Duke team is. I agree,

455
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 6: but we're skipping over the fact that they're number one

456
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 6: in offensive efficiency because the defense is so good. What

457
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 6: Flag brings the table now that he's healthy again is

458
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 6: so good. Dating back to mid February, in games that

459
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 6: flags starts and is finished and not had any injury issues.

460
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,400
Speaker 6: They've scored ninety four and a half points per game,

461
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 6: so they are ascending to a different level offensively. I

462
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,360
Speaker 6: could see them scoring one hundred points in this game.

463
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,159
Speaker 6: So the fact that this number is suppressed by how

464
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 6: much of an off night Arizona had shooting the first

465
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,439
Speaker 6: go around on their home floor, I got to take

466
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,399
Speaker 6: the value there, and particularly if they can keep this

467
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 6: a game inside the last eight minutes and there's any

468
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 6: chance for some garbage buckets and threes, some fouls in

469
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 6: the last two minutes, I think one fifty three and

470
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 6: a half is a little bit too low, so I

471
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 6: do lean that way, but I think there's a chance

472
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 6: that Arizona gets blown off the map again just because

473
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 6: of what Duke's doing. But hopefully they do it so

474
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 6: dramatically that they get close to the century mark in

475
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 6: terms of scoring on their own and I can go

476
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 6: over this number.

477
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 1: For first six minutes. Caleb Love she throws up three

478
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 1: twenty seven footers. If they all go in, might have

479
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 1: a game. If they are way off, this is gonna

480
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 1: be This could get super ugly.

481
00:25:54,600 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 3: Pair course shots and mascot buzz A betass zach Jo.

482
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 4: That's shot.

483
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:08,200
Speaker 1: Argus bar.

484
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 4: Keep cheeering disappearing freshman with a hot hand shoots and

485
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 4: scores that.

486
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to the last game on

487
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 1: Thursday night between Arkansas the Cinderella ten seed Arkansas Razorbacks

488
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: taking on Texas Tech. Texas Tech five and a half

489
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 1: point fivorty or total up to one forty eight and

490
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: a half. Speaking of one forty eight and a half,

491
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 1: you win, all good. The Texas Tech offenses with Chance

492
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 1: McMillan in the lineup in their best five Anderson Hawkins,

493
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 1: Topp and Williams and McMillan, they're adjusted offensive efficiency one

494
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 1: forty eight and a half. Do you know the next

495
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: best five in the country is Florida Clayton Condon, Martin

496
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:05,159
Speaker 1: Richard all one thirty eight point three. Like that's the

497
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 1: gap between one and two? Why do I bring that out? No,

498
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 1: there's injury questions on both sides here. Chance McMillan is

499
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 1: he gonna play? He's super important for this team in

500
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 1: my opinion, especially as the competition increases. Tech was able

501
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 1: to get by Drake. They just went inside against undersized

502
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 1: front court. They were a Kerwin Walton was able to

503
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 1: make enough threes against UNC Wilmington and just dared them

504
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 1: to shoot three. So they won in a variety of ways.

505
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 1: But this is obviously a step up in class, and

506
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 1: they did so by shooting just twenty five percent from three.

507
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 1: You know what will help that number is if Chance

508
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 1: McMillan plays, he shoots forty three percent from three. He

509
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 1: helps the spacing across the board. He obviously helps with depth.

510
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 1: Is he gonna play? I don't know so, hey, but

511
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 1: I do think he's important. On the other side, with

512
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: Arkansas a lot of moving pieces, right, you had this

513
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,360
Speaker 1: a team that was without our p They're two best players,

514
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 1: like most important players. But do you know Boogie Flann

515
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 1: it was out They look better without him. He came back.

516
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 1: He's given them some good minutes, even though he still

517
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 1: can't make a three. And then I do theia he

518
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 1: might come back. Cal Party says twelve minute, twelve, fourteen minutes?

519
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 1: Is he lying? Is he going to play fewer more?

520
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 1: I don't know so. And how does cal Party? Kind

521
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,879
Speaker 1: of it's one of the strong suits, but how does

522
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 1: he continue to stir the drink and move and with

523
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,399
Speaker 1: all these moving pieces, how does he kind of manage that?

524
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 1: So it's tough. I think a lot of this is

525
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: going to come down to so Arkansas has a time.

526
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 1: And the good thing with Arkansas now is you're getting

527
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 1: these two guys back, and then in their absence, a

528
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 1: bunch of other guys started to step up. Brazil has

529
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 1: been tremendous on both ends of the floor over the

530
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 1: past month, and just a number of other guys have

531
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 1: felt comfortable in their roles. But Arkansas kind of needs

532
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 1: to play. They have unreal athleticism talent NBA talent. They

533
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 1: need to play like an ugly chaotic game like the

534
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 1: Saint John's game was perfect for them. Tons of fouls

535
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: four or forty one combined from three. But if so,

536
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 1: what I think this comes down to is like, and

537
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 1: this is where McMillan is a huge piece, is Texas

538
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 1: Tech hitting their shots because if they are, then Arkansas

539
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 1: can't get out in transition because Texas Tech can limit

540
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 1: you in transition. Now, if they're missing a ton of threes,

541
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 1: Arcill's gonna have chances to get there. And when you

542
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 1: can get in transition, that's where Arkansas offense is elite.

543
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 1: Texas Tech has been vulnerable in that department, so they

544
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,719
Speaker 1: don't allow it often. But if you can get out

545
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 1: in transition, you could score on them. So I think

546
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 1: that's where the three point variant for Texas Tech is

547
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 1: just so paramount. At the end of the day, I

548
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 1: think I trust Texas Tech in the half court their

549
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 1: offense much more. But there's just too much injury uncertainty

550
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 1: here for me. I'm already invested in Texas on the

551
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 1: final four fifuture, I bet them the win the region,

552
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 1: so I'll be on the sidelines rooting Guns out. But

553
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 1: no bet for me in this game. Maybe something live

554
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 1: based on what I'm saying, who's playing who, Like, there's

555
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 1: just a lot of question marks here. Greg, you're taking

556
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 1: a shot with the hog magic.

557
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 2: I am call it a hedge to our Tech future.

558
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 5: Fine, that's okay, But I've been impressed with Arkansas in

559
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 5: this tournament, and I'm not going to overthink the fact

560
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 5: that they're getting healthy and convinced myself that that's somehow

561
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 5: a bad thing.

562
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 2: I don't think it is. I think people kind of assumed, Okay,

563
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 2: getting Boogie.

564
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 1: Flambag is that good?

565
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 2: Is that bad?

566
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:45,880
Speaker 5: He's bringing Flant off the bench, Flan made some impact

567
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 5: plays and key moments. He's not overdoing it, and the

568
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 5: guys who have taken leaps at the end of this season,

569
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 5: Knox and Billy Richmond, still looks sensational even though there's

570
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 5: another guy there. I think Thuero returning will will only

571
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 5: help help this team, even if it is twelve to

572
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 5: fifteen minutes. He was their best player and he's not

573
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 5: one of those ones you have to question his impact.

574
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 5: I mean, he was the best player on the floor

575
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 5: in that game in Roparina where they beat Kentucky. I

576
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 5: just think they passed the eye test right now as

577
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 5: a completely different group than the group that was missing

578
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 5: their two best players for huge portions of this season.

579
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 2: I think they have the.

580
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 5: Talent advantage in this game too. As good as Texas

581
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 5: Tech is, like JT. Toppin is the one guy that

582
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 5: I think you would circle that will be a huge

583
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 5: mismatch for Arkansas. And honestly, I don't hate Jonas Adu

584
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 5: down low. I would hate it if they were still

585
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 5: trying to force Big Z into major minutes in the

586
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 5: front court. But this team has really taken on an

587
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 5: identity defensively that I think helps them get where they

588
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 5: need to that you said stuck. They need to make

589
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 5: this ugly. They need to muck it up, get out

590
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 5: and run, block some shots, force turnovers. I think ad

591
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 5: anchoring them down low will help them do that in

592
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 5: this game a little bit. And just eye test wise,

593
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 5: this is super small sample size, so put the siren

594
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 5: emojis on this for me. But just looking specifically at

595
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 5: the two games in this tournament, let's rank how every

596
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 5: team has performed efficiency margin wise per Torvik. Of the

597
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 5: sixteen teams remaining, Arkansas has been the seventh best team

598
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 5: in their two games sample size, better than.

599
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 2: Florida, Alabama, Auburn. They're playing well.

600
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 5: Texas Tech has been the fifteenth best team out of

601
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 5: the sixteen teams remaining. I think they got a fortunate

602
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 5: draw here. UNC Wilmington almost was able to make that

603
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 5: interesting into the final four minutes, and then they caught

604
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 5: a Drake team that is good, don't I'm not here

605
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 5: to disrespect Drake, but they're not world beaters by any means,

606
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 5: and Tech made that look easy. I think this is

607
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 5: going to be their first true test. At two to one,

608
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 5: it's enough value for me to sprinkle the underdog you're

609
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 5: passing her Tabreys.

610
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm passing.

611
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 6: And my only note was it is pretty funny that

612
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 6: Arkansas is the Cinderella with a coach that makes eight

613
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 6: million dollars a year and a roster that has nine Blue.

614
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 2: Chippers on it.

615
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 6: But that's the way we are. I mean, all the

616
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 6: mid major low major teams, they're just organ donors to

617
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 6: the rich. Anyone who's an all conference player just gets

618
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 6: ripped out of there and forced onto one of these

619
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 6: top rosters. And until one of those corporate sponsors comes

620
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 6: down from the heavens, like if Doctor Pepper starts paying

621
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 6: the best March Madness Cinderella player money to stay on campus,

622
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 6: we're never going to see this Tide go in the

623
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 6: opposite direction. So kudos to Cali Pari for making this interesting.

624
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:15,959
Speaker 6: I think the storyline's great. I think this game itself.

625
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 6: If I knew Texas tec was one hundred percent, I'd

626
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 6: absolutely be on the Red Raiders. But I'm just holding

627
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 6: my breath for our futures as long as we can

628
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 6: just sneak by this one, because I do think it

629
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 6: could be tricky if McMillan isn't a go stut can

630
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 6: I ask.

631
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 5: You a question as someone that watches Kentucky closely, do

632
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 5: you get any vibes with this quote unquote underdog team

633
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 5: of that twenty fourteen Kentucky team that was like the

634
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 5: eight seed that Yeah, it was Blue Chippers, but like

635
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 5: mentally he convinced these dudes that they were underdogs and

636
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 5: they made that crazy run.

637
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, this is when Cali Parti is at his

638
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 1: best when he has like the purpose and the motivation

639
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 1: one that he can he can he's not the best

640
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 1: ex as a o's guy, but as far as managing

641
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: the lineup, motivating his players, thriving in that underdog role

642
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 1: definitely something to be fearful. And this team has a

643
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 1: ton of talent, athleticism, length, like they're if they can

644
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,319
Speaker 1: just get a chaos game and if Texas Tech isn't

645
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 1: hot from the outside, which isn't easy to do. You're

646
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 1: playing neutral courts, Arkansas is not relying on making threes,

647
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 1: Texas Tech takes them away, but Texas Tech's going to

648
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 1: get their fair share of looks from the outside. If

649
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 1: they're not on that, this game is going to get scary.

650
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:37,919
Speaker 1: And that's where McMillan's presence is huge. Made the most

651
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 1: threes in the Big twelve, shoots forty three percent, and

652
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 1: then creates spacing, and then he's just another option that

653
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 1: you have. But yeah, I think there's definitely something to that,

654
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 1: all right, before we get to Friday. One of my

655
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 1: favorite adreades for a product, I love edge Boost. If

656
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 1: you are listening to the show, you probably like betting

657
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,399
Speaker 1: as much as I do. And when it comes to betting,

658
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 1: there are two I'm always trying to do, make it

659
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 1: easier and make it more profitable. That's why I've partnered

660
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 1: with edge boost, the financial platform that pays you cash

661
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 1: back to wager. Edge Boost is an online bank account

662
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 1: that pays you for every deposit because with the edge

663
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 1: Boost Visa debit card, you get up to half a

664
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 1: percent cash back on all your sportsbook, daily fantasy site,

665
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 1: and casino transactions. That's free money back in your pocket

666
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: just for doing what you're already doing. It's a no brainer.

667
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 1: I promise this isn't some credit card gimmick. That's what

668
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: I thought when I first heard a edge Boost. But

669
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 1: I opened my own edge Boost debit card account and

670
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:38,400
Speaker 1: it just made everything so much easier to deposit to

671
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 1: all of my sportsbook accounts. There's no catch, there's no

672
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 1: hidden bees, no minimum balance requirements, none of that. They

673
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:47,400
Speaker 1: make all their money just on volume. And if you've

674
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:50,760
Speaker 1: ever had a casino transaction flagged by your bank because

675
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 1: they thought it was suspicious, or been given the run

676
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 1: around when trying to fund a sports book account online,

677
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 1: we've all been there. The edge boost debit card is

678
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 1: the perfect tool to a lead all those issues. It

679
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 1: starts with a two hundred and fifty thousand dollars daily

680
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 1: limit and will never be declined for gambling activity. Never.

681
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 1: That's why I was happy to open an account and

682
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 1: have been happy ever since. So make your betting life

683
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:17,879
Speaker 1: easier and stop leaving money on the table. Visit edgeboost

684
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 1: dot bet to sign up, and if you use promo

685
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 1: code BBOC and deposit twenty five dollars, you'll receive a

686
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 1: twenty five dollars deposit match plus to Tier two status

687
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:32,360
Speaker 1: for faster bank deposits and more cash back. That's edgeboost

688
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 1: dot Bet promo code BBOC. Shout out edge Boost. All right,

689
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 1: let's move on to Friday. Let's kick things off within

690
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 1: sec Big ten Tilt between Ole Miss and Michigan State

691
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 1: on CBS seven or nine Eastern in Atlanta, Georgia. Michigan

692
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 1: State three and a half point favorite here total one

693
00:36:55,000 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 1: forty three and a half interesting schematic matchup. I could

694
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 1: tell you that when I so looking at this number,

695
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 1: my first thoughts in this game. I look at this number,

696
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: I actually show value on Michigan State from a numbers perspective,

697
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 1: which I'm shocked that because I never show value on

698
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 1: Michigan State. So I think Michigan State's a little cheap here.

699
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:19,759
Speaker 1: But am I just dumb for betting Michigan States? And

700
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 1: I just wait until they're down at the half or

701
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 1: down eight ten minutes into the game. I made a

702
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:26,759
Speaker 1: big mistake I had in New Mexico plus seven and

703
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 1: a half against Michigan State. Dumb that number one. I

704
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 1: didn't buy out too that I didn't have just the

705
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 1: first half. I mean, this Michigan State team, we see

706
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 1: it a lot. They go through first half lalls. Their

707
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 1: biggest strength is their depth. They start to wear teams

708
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:42,360
Speaker 1: down on the second half. Is it kind of tinkers

709
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 1: with what's working during the game, And they have been

710
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 1: just fantastic in the second half so games. So that's

711
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:52,399
Speaker 1: my first thoughts on this, It's like, do I want

712
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 1: to bet Michigan State pregame even though I show a

713
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 1: little value, especially when it was at two and a half,

714
00:37:58,120 --> 00:37:59,799
Speaker 1: or like, is that just dumb? Like they're probably going

715
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 1: to be down at some point, so I went. But

716
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 1: from a schematic net standpoint Michigan there's some good and

717
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 1: bad for both teams. I mean, Michigan State wants to

718
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 1: get out in transition. Ole Miss is an elite transition defense.

719
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 1: That's a good thing. You always need to have a

720
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:20,320
Speaker 1: really good transition defense against Michigan State. You want to

721
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 1: force them to op right in the half court, and

722
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 1: ole Miss forces you to beat them with threes and

723
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:31,359
Speaker 1: in isolation. Sparti's not comfortable in either area. They're gonna

724
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,359
Speaker 1: need Richardson here to have a bounce back game. Credit

725
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:34,959
Speaker 1: to him for stepping up in the final two minutes

726
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 1: after he went scoreless. Or you start go for nine

727
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 1: over the first thirty eight minutes, They're gonna even to

728
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 1: create some in a half court here. On the other side,

729
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 1: another side of the coin is that, Okay, it might

730
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 1: not be the best matchup for Sparty because they're not

731
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 1: going able to get in transition as much they're not

732
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 1: creative shooting the three, they're not creating isolation. But they

733
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 1: should just dominate the offensive glass in defensive glass. They

734
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: should dominate the boards on both ends. And that's scary

735
00:39:05,560 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 1: in a neutral court venue, knowing that you're just gonna

736
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 1: get destroyed on the glass. Now, I will say o

737
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 1: Miss has been hot, and coming into the tournament, they

738
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:22,880
Speaker 1: were probably the team likeliest to experience some positive shooting regression.

739
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:25,720
Speaker 1: I mean, between February first and the start of the tournament,

740
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 1: they were shooting thirty two percent from three while their

741
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:36,279
Speaker 1: opponents shot thirty eight percent. And so far, well, they've

742
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:38,319
Speaker 1: experienced some of that. Their opponents are shooting just twenty

743
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 1: eight percent from three, and they've caught fire. They've gone

744
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:45,839
Speaker 1: nineteen to thirty nine, just under fifty percent from three.

745
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:48,879
Speaker 1: So can they stay out hot against Michigan State, who

746
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 1: allows the lowest three point percentage in the country. It's

747
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 1: gonna be tough. Maybe this is the game that Sparti

748
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 1: sees someone get red hot from three. But the rebounding

749
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:05,240
Speaker 1: really worries me. Here Sparty top twenty offensive end defensive rebounding,

750
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 1: Ole Miss three fourteenth offensive rebounding to twenty sixth defensive rebounding.

751
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:15,240
Speaker 1: I think the two the duel's got to handle the pressure.

752
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 1: He's got to keep playing while Richardson needs to bounce

753
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 1: back here. They're gonna need him in the half court.

754
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:26,120
Speaker 1: Malik Dia could be a matchup problem for Michigan State

755
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 1: depending on who they have. You never know what you're

756
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 1: gonna get from Dia. But him is like a stretch

757
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 1: big like you can't really put these too big for

758
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 1: some of the wings, you can't Michigan State's biggs. You're

759
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 1: not gonna want to put them like on him on

760
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,879
Speaker 1: the perimeter. It's like Dia could be a wildcard here

761
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 1: that Beard could use. But numbers perspective, I show, I

762
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 1: actually show value in Michigan State. There's some things I

763
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 1: like and don't like about the matchup. The rebounding might

764
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 1: just be the trump card though, Greg what he's seeing here, Well.

765
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 2: First of all, I got a question, Stug, is you

766
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 2: showing value?

767
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 5: You just an olive branch from you to Michigan State

768
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 5: Twitter after your night the other night ago.

769
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 1: I mean I've had I've had worse battles with Michigan

770
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,879
Speaker 1: State fans. Let's see, I had, I mean going back

771
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 1: to like most of it happens in football. To be honest,

772
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm talking like ten fifteen years worth of

773
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:23,280
Speaker 1: battles of s Michigan State fans. But yeah, I Michigan

774
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 1: State well deserved win. I was salty, had too many beverages.

775
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:31,840
Speaker 1: Kentucky went to the sweet sixteen and lashed out to

776
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:34,400
Speaker 1: Michigan State fans, who I since apologize to. I had

777
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 1: too many beverages. So no, I like, I actually I

778
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 1: just make this like four point seven. I still don't

779
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 1: think Michigan State has national title upside. I'll stand by that.

780
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 1: I just don't trust their half court offense enough. And

781
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 1: but I don't mind this matchup. Like they are a

782
00:41:55,520 --> 00:42:01,839
Speaker 1: relentless rebounding team. They're tough, they're deep, and I don't

783
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 1: hate this matchup for them. But there I do think

784
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 1: Richardson's bounce back is he needs to bounce back here

785
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:08,879
Speaker 1: because they're gonna need him the half court, Like they're

786
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 1: not gonna be able to live in transition here. One

787
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 1: of the reasons al Miss isn't great on the glass.

788
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:15,879
Speaker 1: They don't have a ton of size, but they also

789
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 1: just get back, so like that, they're very good and

790
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 1: at the partment. We saw that against UNC, so two

791
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:24,439
Speaker 1: months ago, I would have been much more worried about

792
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:26,919
Speaker 1: Michigan State just having to operate in the half court

793
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:30,239
Speaker 1: in a one and done game. But over the second

794
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 1: half of the season, last game outstanding, the emergence of

795
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 1: Richardson I think will be huge here. But what are

796
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:39,439
Speaker 1: you saying?

797
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 2: Yeah?

798
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:42,400
Speaker 5: No, I completely agree with you for the record on

799
00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 5: both the broad Michigan State takes and then specific to

800
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 5: this game. This is my second favorite bet of the weekend.

801
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 5: I called Duke my favorite for Thursday. This is my

802
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 5: favorite for Friday. I'm taking the Spartans to cover. I

803
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 5: would be surprised if they don't create some separation in

804
00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 5: the second half here.

805
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 2: Look, Michigan State is good.

806
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:02,839
Speaker 1: Should we just wait, Greg, Well, should we knock get

807
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:03,879
Speaker 1: them pre game? And just wait?

808
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 5: We could, right, because they still start Shimone Zapalla and

809
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:09,320
Speaker 5: they pull them out four minutes into the game. He

810
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:11,399
Speaker 5: never gets off the bench again and they're down six

811
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 5: every time. So that's not a bad play, to be honest.

812
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 5: But no, I look, there's too many things you highlighted,

813
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:21,439
Speaker 5: most of them that schematically Ole miss just doesn't prioritize

814
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:24,360
Speaker 5: or is flat out week at that Michigan State will exploit.

815
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 5: They're going to dominate the boards in this game. They're

816
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 5: going to get to the free throw line a ton

817
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 5: in this game. And that's been one of my biggest

818
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:34,240
Speaker 5: frustrations and why I think a lot of neutral parties

819
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:37,839
Speaker 5: are frustrated watching this Michigan State team win games. Half

820
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 5: of the time they're creating separation by kind of jumping

821
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:43,480
Speaker 5: into fouls and getting to the free throw line where

822
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:46,399
Speaker 5: they never miss free throws, and it's frustrating to watch.

823
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:48,839
Speaker 5: It's not the most aesthetically pleasing, but it works. It's

824
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 5: damn effective, and ole miss fouls a ton. They don't

825
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 5: mind getting in foul trouble. It's part of the scheme. Defensively,

826
00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 5: I think Michigan State's going to live at the line.

827
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 5: If they're not getting to the line, they're gonna get grants. Yeah,

828
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 5: they're just going to get too many possessions in this game.

829
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 5: And lastly, again the story for all miss on this run.

830
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 5: Good couple games, they're shooting the lights out this Michigan

831
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,359
Speaker 5: State team. Nobody makes threes against. And if you really

832
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:11,759
Speaker 5: want to.

833
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:13,720
Speaker 2: Fade Michigan State's three point defense.

834
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 5: Now on a team that's running hot shot forty nine

835
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 5: percent two games in the tournament, I'll go the other direction.

836
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 5: I think it's a lot more likely that we see

837
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 5: Jace Richardson have a great game than it is uh

838
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 5: ole Miss continue shooting the lights out here.

839
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's not like Mole Miss is an elite

840
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 1: shooting team from three. Like there could be a game

841
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:33,879
Speaker 1: coming up where Michigan State just gets you know, someone

842
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 1: goes twelve of twenty four against them. But I think

843
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 1: for the most part, I think they've ran a little

844
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 1: bit lucky. I mean, twenty seven percent is pretty extreme,

845
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:45,200
Speaker 1: but is over the course of twenty years. He's like

846
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 1: two percent lower than the rest of the league in

847
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 1: Big Ten play, And they can test, they will, They'll

848
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:53,319
Speaker 1: give up a high line. There's and the sample size

849
00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:55,920
Speaker 1: is pretty big that we can safely assume that they

850
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 1: have an elite three point defense. So maybe there's a

851
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 1: game co where they get bit but I think it's

852
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 1: pretty safe to say that they have an elite perimeter defense,

853
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 1: and that's you can see that in the underlying numbers

854
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 1: as far as contested versus uncontested jumpers allowed. Calvary's what

855
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 1: are you seeing here?

856
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 6: Yeah, just ole miss has been a team that it's

857
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 6: been a little bit difficult for me to get my

858
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:20,840
Speaker 6: arms around. But I can't get over the fact that

859
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 6: when they've played against really elite teams with high ceilings

860
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 6: on the road, they got bombed by Memphis and Penny.

861
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 6: Same thing with Auburn and Florida on the road. And

862
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 6: when you look at how they're playing headed into the tournament,

863
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 6: they were just treading water. They certainly all their big wins.

864
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 6: You look at Kentucky Tennessee at home this season, and

865
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 6: then they get into this tournament. I mean, we all

866
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 6: thought North Carolina when that kid put his foot in

867
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 6: the lane against the lane violation against Duke and the

868
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 6: eastcy Tournament, that they weren't even gonna make it. But

869
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:50,239
Speaker 6: then all of a sudden, that's like a quality win.

870
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 6: They get Iowa State, who's down a starter then clearly

871
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:55,839
Speaker 6: didn't have the offensive firepower to keep up with them.

872
00:45:56,560 --> 00:45:58,359
Speaker 6: This is just a stayaway for me because I've been

873
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 6: able to calibrate how good Mississippi is this entire season.

874
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 6: But if I had a lean in one direction, give

875
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 6: me the consistency of how Michigan State has played since

876
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 6: mid February and Izzo just kind of elevating and this

877
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 6: is a nice story for Old miss But I just

878
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 6: think they're in deep water here and potentially to play

879
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 6: it on an alt line or to catch it in

880
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:19,759
Speaker 6: stuck strategy, which is wait for Michigan State to go

881
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 6: on you know, a two minute scoring drought something like that,

882
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:24,240
Speaker 6: and then hop in at the best number possible.

883
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,319
Speaker 1: Yeah. I will say for Michigan State fans, like, could

884
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:30,320
Speaker 1: you win the national title? Sure, I mean there's sixteen

885
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 1: teams left. I just don't think they could go through

886
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:34,839
Speaker 1: a gauntlet at the top seed. So like you could

887
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:41,720
Speaker 1: also have the bracket break right starting with Michigan become

888
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 1: I'm Michigan State fans. Great time, you got to be

889
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 1: Michigan fans on Friday Night.

890
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:49,839
Speaker 2: That would help him, by the way, stuck. That's going

891
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 2: to be an interesting element to this is they're they're

892
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 2: both in.

893
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 5: Atlanta, so the Michigan State crowd theoretically will have an

894
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 5: impact on the Michigan Auburn game.

895
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 1: But will they put their hatred aside to root for Michigan.

896
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 2: It's gonna be crazy.

897
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 1: That's very interesting dynamic. But that's a Michigan team that

898
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 1: you swept. Also, if you're an old Miss fan, you're

899
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:15,360
Speaker 1: really rooting for Michigan because you got swept through. You

900
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:17,319
Speaker 1: got swept all three times against Auburn. Don't think it's

901
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 1: a great matchup. So yeah, the brackets, the bracket could

902
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 1: always break, right. But and I will say Michigan State,

903
00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 1: they don't have this highest ceiling because of their lack

904
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 1: of shooting, their their half court offense as the top seeds,

905
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 1: but their floor is really high. Yes, their floor is

906
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 1: extremely high because they rebound and they're deep athletic, they

907
00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:42,920
Speaker 1: play hard, they shoot free throws really well, get to

908
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:46,440
Speaker 1: the line a ton, and they play really good team defense.

909
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:48,359
Speaker 1: So their floor is really high. I mean, what were

910
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 1: their losses this year? Their losses were by I think

911
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 1: in non conference they lost the couple back like seven

912
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:55,200
Speaker 1: or eight, But since then they lost by six, two, four,

913
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 1: and three. So they have a very high floor staying games.

914
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 1: Use your depth late formulas there. All right, let's move

915
00:48:04,120 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 1: on to the second game on Friday night between Kentucky

916
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:13,239
Speaker 1: and Tennessee. Tennessee four and a half point favorite air

917
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 1: total one point four and a half. This game we

918
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 1: played in Lucas Oil Stadium, which is awful playing a

919
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 1: football stadium cut in half. Not sure what that's going

920
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:28,439
Speaker 1: to do to shooting. First lead here is like woof

921
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 1: shooting might be way off? Maybe look under here, do

922
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 1: I want to go to Kentucky? Under I get hop

923
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 1: in real quick stuck.

924
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 6: In terms of dome impact, Lucas Oil historically has either

925
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 6: been flat to the average or actually better shooting performance. Now,

926
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:47,320
Speaker 6: granted it is a smaller sample size, but that's compared

927
00:48:47,360 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 6: to every other dome, Like the Widow Maker is NRG

928
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 6: Stadium in Houston, just like nobody can shoot, and you know,

929
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,000
Speaker 6: we have that awful National title game. But in terms

930
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 6: of Lucas Oil's impact, sometimes that can be overstated. But

931
00:48:59,080 --> 00:49:01,479
Speaker 6: in this case it actually kind of swings to teams

932
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:03,759
Speaker 6: shooting better. Take that with a grain of salt, because

933
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:06,560
Speaker 6: you're looking at, you know, sixteen games as opposed to

934
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 6: these pro venues or basketball only venues where you have

935
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 6: thousands of games worth of data. But just want to

936
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:13,359
Speaker 6: throw that out there.

937
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:17,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good nugget. So this is a people

938
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 1: are going to say it's hard to beat a team

939
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:23,279
Speaker 1: three times, like in theory, that's not true. And if

940
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 1: you look historically like the team that won the first

941
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 1: two wins the third seventy percent of the time. But

942
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 1: you have to account for what the lines were. With

943
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:33,839
Speaker 1: Kentucky beat Tennessee both times in the nego season. How

944
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 1: did it happen? Because Kentucky has defensive issues, specifically just

945
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 1: off screening action against pick and roll, which Tennessee won't

946
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:44,759
Speaker 1: fully exploit, not the heavy pick and roll offense, but

947
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:49,440
Speaker 1: they can exploit Kentucky's defense in other ways. But how

948
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 1: did that have How did Kentucky sweep them during the

949
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 1: rego season. This was a simple case of three point variants.

950
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 1: Kentucky said, beat us from three that we're just going

951
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:04,880
Speaker 1: to dare you to make jumpers, and Tennessee couldn't. They

952
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 1: went fourteen of sixty three in two games versus Kentucky

953
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 1: twenty two percent. Meanwhile Kentucky went twenty four or forty eight.

954
00:50:12,120 --> 00:50:15,359
Speaker 1: They shot fifty percent. Pretty hard to win when you're

955
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 1: at such a disadvantage from beyond the arm. I assume

956
00:50:18,680 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 1: that's going to be part of the game plan again

957
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:26,279
Speaker 1: for Kentucky at least a start. It's like, hey, let's

958
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:31,600
Speaker 1: try this again on the neutral court. Tennessee. We know

959
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:33,880
Speaker 1: they are. They got an elite defense. They're going to

960
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 1: just guard you, force you to score late in the

961
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:41,480
Speaker 1: shot clock, shoot contested threes. I mean Tennessee's third nationally

962
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 1: and three point defense despite high volume. Because of that defense,

963
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:48,320
Speaker 1: they're i think ninety eight percentile and last four seconds

964
00:50:48,520 --> 00:50:52,640
Speaker 1: of the shot clock frequency. And then their offense I

965
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:54,480
Speaker 1: think is a bit underrated. I mean a lot of

966
00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 1: it is like is laniar on. If he is, they're

967
00:50:57,280 --> 00:50:59,560
Speaker 1: very dangerous. And then if they can get just like

968
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 1: some help from their role players, you know, if Gainey

969
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 1: has a big day, I think they become super dangerous.

970
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:12,279
Speaker 1: Milicic like he's very hit or miss. But we know

971
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:14,160
Speaker 1: great defense. They want to grind the game down to

972
00:51:14,200 --> 00:51:17,839
Speaker 1: a halt, and they want to make this a half

973
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:21,200
Speaker 1: court game where they win with their defense. So I

974
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:23,080
Speaker 1: kind of lean I don't know. I mean, I'll be

975
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:26,279
Speaker 1: rooting so hard for Kentucky here. I kind of leaned

976
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:30,839
Speaker 1: Tennessee unless they just are so off again from three,

977
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:32,960
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be hard for Kentucky to

978
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 1: get consistent stops, and the Tennessee defense is just going

979
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:39,880
Speaker 1: to fight. You know, I will say this Kentucky team's

980
00:51:39,880 --> 00:51:42,480
Speaker 1: playing a lot better. They got la Mont Butler back.

981
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 1: He's huge on both ends of the floor, and during

982
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 1: all the injuries that they had, It's a very tough

983
00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:50,400
Speaker 1: team for me to rate. During all the injuries that

984
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:52,960
Speaker 1: they had, Guys step up that are now more comfortable

985
00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 1: playing that we're almost unplayable when you were trying to play,

986
00:51:55,480 --> 00:52:00,120
Speaker 1: and guys like Chandler earlier this season. So yeah, this

987
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:03,759
Speaker 1: team is definitely trending in the right direction. I have

988
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:05,879
Speaker 1: a ton of respect for Pope. I don't think I'll

989
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:09,320
Speaker 1: end up laying it here, but I'm worried about the

990
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:13,920
Speaker 1: Kentucky defense. Their shot volume profile. Now they can battle

991
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:17,239
Speaker 1: like if they just dare Tennessee to shoot. Tennessee's a

992
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:20,160
Speaker 1: really good offensive, redundit team, but Kentucky can be very

993
00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 1: good on the defensive glass. So I think what this

994
00:52:24,120 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 1: comes down to is Kentucky's going to turn Tennessee. Try

995
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:29,960
Speaker 1: to turn them into three point shooters again, hope for

996
00:52:30,000 --> 00:52:32,520
Speaker 1: the same results on a neutral court. But I don't

997
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 1: have a great feel for this one.

998
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:35,800
Speaker 5: Greg, what do you say, well, you gave the number

999
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 5: on is it hard to beat the team three times

1000
00:52:38,600 --> 00:52:41,200
Speaker 5: seventy plus percent of the time, the team that wins

1001
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:44,760
Speaker 5: the first two wins the third. Even against the spread,

1002
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 5: it's basically fifty to fifty. It's what you would expect.

1003
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:53,560
Speaker 5: So there's no logical analysis that implicates that that's actually true.

1004
00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:55,799
Speaker 2: To me, I look at this Kentucky team.

1005
00:52:56,160 --> 00:52:59,000
Speaker 5: The story of their season has been fighting through adversity,

1006
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 5: good vibes, capitalize on matchups, win the coaching battle. Honestly,

1007
00:53:04,960 --> 00:53:08,719
Speaker 5: Pope's been a huge upgrade there, and I think they

1008
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 5: have some stuff mentally that has impacted these games against Tennessee.

1009
00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:15,560
Speaker 5: You mentioned they come into these games and basically say,

1010
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 5: we don't think you can beat us from three. Tennessee

1011
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:21,840
Speaker 5: hasn't been able to shooting is mental, especially in a

1012
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:25,320
Speaker 5: big spot like this in a football stadium, And I

1013
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:27,839
Speaker 5: don't know that I trust Chaslin Heir to be that guy.

1014
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:30,440
Speaker 5: He's played really well in the last two weeks, but

1015
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:34,360
Speaker 5: he's stunk in every matchup with Kentucky this year, partially

1016
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:37,040
Speaker 5: due to what Kentucky's been able to throw at him defensively.

1017
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:40,600
Speaker 5: And I'm buying the Kentucky defensive resurgence here. This has

1018
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 5: been a crazy turnaround since Jackson Robinson basically shut it

1019
00:53:44,719 --> 00:53:45,560
Speaker 5: down for the season.

1020
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:48,120
Speaker 1: Who was a zero. Defensively, it's been awesome.

1021
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:53,440
Speaker 5: They've been seventeenth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency since Robinson

1022
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 5: went down. That's twelve game sample size. That is twenty

1023
00:53:56,960 --> 00:54:01,120
Speaker 5: five spots better per national rankings than the Tennessee defense

1024
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:04,920
Speaker 5: in the last six weeks of the season. I mean,

1025
00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 5: I understand that doesn't make any sense because we view

1026
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:10,480
Speaker 5: Tennessee rightfully, so is an elite defense. They haven't played

1027
00:54:10,520 --> 00:54:12,160
Speaker 5: like an elite defense for a month and a half.

1028
00:54:12,560 --> 00:54:16,759
Speaker 5: I meanwhile, Kentucky actually has. So I'm just gonna take

1029
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:19,160
Speaker 5: the points here. I'm gonna take Kentucky as an underdog.

1030
00:54:19,239 --> 00:54:22,359
Speaker 5: I'm also gonna bet them money line. I believe we're

1031
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:24,560
Speaker 5: gonna see a very similar game script to the first two.

1032
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 5: And I trust Kentucky shooters more than I trust Chaslin.

1033
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:29,560
Speaker 1: Here. Yeah, I mean Tennessee top. I mean Kentucky top

1034
00:54:29,600 --> 00:54:33,200
Speaker 1: twenty over that span, that twelve game span. Now, it

1035
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:36,400
Speaker 1: is a bit woul. They be great on the defensive glass.

1036
00:54:37,160 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 1: What is a bit worrying is that their two point

1037
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:43,480
Speaker 1: defense is three hundred and thirty seven. They're allowing a

1038
00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:47,920
Speaker 1: ton of threes and just no one can make one. Now.

1039
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:50,399
Speaker 1: Part of that the first two games you play Troy

1040
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:52,719
Speaker 1: in Illinois, neither of those teams can be relying on

1041
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:56,279
Speaker 1: to make threes. Tennessee isn't an elite shooting team. Now

1042
00:54:56,320 --> 00:54:59,759
Speaker 1: they're more capable than Illinois and Troy.

1043
00:55:00,520 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 6: But.

1044
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 1: I think they've been running a bit lucky. But there's

1045
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:07,680
Speaker 1: definitely improved. And like Robinson was a zero offensively, the

1046
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:09,759
Speaker 1: key to Kentucky, the key to almost every Kentucky game.

1047
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:11,960
Speaker 1: I'll watch it. GE's a really good team. I think

1048
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:16,719
Speaker 1: it's Kobe Bryant is Kobe Bryant. He's a zero defensively,

1049
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:20,399
Speaker 1: So when he's on, when he's out there, if he's

1050
00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:23,360
Speaker 1: on and you were just like, wow, Kobe Bryan is

1051
00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:27,920
Speaker 1: on one, Kentucky's ceiling is exponentially higher. He's the guy

1052
00:55:27,960 --> 00:55:29,719
Speaker 1: to watch for them. And I think the same is

1053
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 1: for Gainey. Like if Ganey's on for Tennessee, their offense

1054
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:37,040
Speaker 1: is is much more dangerous, really fascinating game. Fans that

1055
00:55:37,120 --> 00:55:41,160
Speaker 1: will be talking shit to each other for five straight

1056
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:45,200
Speaker 1: days until that kicks off. I won't I don't know

1057
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:48,640
Speaker 1: if I'll be out for that game. Probably not. Message

1058
00:55:48,680 --> 00:55:50,920
Speaker 1: me if anyone is in town. I gotta go. I'm

1059
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:53,759
Speaker 1: going to Chicago Saturday for our LAD eight event. I'll

1060
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 1: retweet it out again. But if you're in Chicago, Joe's

1061
00:55:56,040 --> 00:55:58,040
Speaker 1: on WACH free Love an event. Just got RSVP. It's

1062
00:55:58,080 --> 00:56:01,839
Speaker 1: free Jim Root and from the Three Man. We've well

1063
00:56:01,840 --> 00:56:04,400
Speaker 1: have an Elite eight preview. We'll watch both games on Saturday.

1064
00:56:05,160 --> 00:56:09,399
Speaker 1: Hopefully Texas Tech is there, although it's an Arkansas bar

1065
00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:15,160
Speaker 1: in Chicago, I learned. So yeah, everything's lining up for

1066
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:17,360
Speaker 1: cal So hope to see you guys there. You just

1067
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 1: got an RSVP. All right, let's one of the late

1068
00:56:21,239 --> 00:56:22,239
Speaker 1: slate on Friday night.

1069
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:24,120
Speaker 6: Real quick stuck. If I could just throw out a

1070
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:25,600
Speaker 6: player prop for Tennessee.

1071
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:26,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, sorry, I didn't get to you. What do you got?

1072
00:56:27,239 --> 00:56:27,680
Speaker 1: No sweat?

1073
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:30,360
Speaker 6: Over twenty one and a half points and assists for

1074
00:56:30,440 --> 00:56:33,440
Speaker 6: Zakuy Siegler. He's at twenty one or more in the

1075
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:35,880
Speaker 6: stat combo in five straight games. That includes bouts with

1076
00:56:35,960 --> 00:56:39,120
Speaker 6: Florida Auburn UCLA. They've needed him to shoot more. His

1077
00:56:39,160 --> 00:56:41,200
Speaker 6: shooting volume has gone up. He was a sub ten

1078
00:56:41,239 --> 00:56:43,400
Speaker 6: shots per game kind of guy for much of the season.

1079
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 6: Slight uptick there where it is spiked in terms of

1080
00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:48,680
Speaker 6: his box score has been his foul shot rate from

1081
00:56:48,680 --> 00:56:51,360
Speaker 6: the SEC tournament through the games in this past weekend.

1082
00:56:51,400 --> 00:56:53,680
Speaker 6: He's making six foul shots per game, and I think

1083
00:56:53,719 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 6: that moves him a little bit closer you know what

1084
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:57,879
Speaker 6: he's gonna do as a facilitator. But when I look

1085
00:56:57,920 --> 00:57:00,239
Speaker 6: at this, and there's two meetings with Kentucky, two games

1086
00:57:00,320 --> 00:57:03,239
Speaker 6: by the way that Tennessee kind of dictated the pace

1087
00:57:03,280 --> 00:57:06,719
Speaker 6: a little bit in terms of overall possessions. He went

1088
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:09,520
Speaker 6: one for thirteen from three point range in those two games,

1089
00:57:09,600 --> 00:57:12,120
Speaker 6: and yet he was still right around this number. I

1090
00:57:12,200 --> 00:57:14,359
Speaker 6: think if any of those three start to fall for him,

1091
00:57:14,520 --> 00:57:16,800
Speaker 6: he's going to comfortably cruise pass this and land in

1092
00:57:16,840 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 6: the mid twenties. And the big reason for that is

1093
00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:21,680
Speaker 6: Kentucky is cooking offensively. Their games in March. They've average

1094
00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:23,720
Speaker 6: one hundred and sixty three points. I think they are

1095
00:57:23,840 --> 00:57:25,360
Speaker 6: going to speed this one up and it's going to

1096
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:28,160
Speaker 6: be closer to their preferred tempo. More possessions just make

1097
00:57:28,200 --> 00:57:30,960
Speaker 6: this one a lot more gettable from a player prop perspective.

1098
00:57:30,960 --> 00:57:32,640
Speaker 6: So I'm going to go over on Ziegler's points and

1099
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:34,120
Speaker 6: this good stuff there.

1100
00:57:34,400 --> 00:57:37,560
Speaker 1: That's one of the two final games start Michigan Auburn.

1101
00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:40,840
Speaker 1: Auburn eight and a half point favored. Here total one

1102
00:57:40,840 --> 00:57:44,720
Speaker 1: point fifty three and a half. You know, I'm just

1103
00:57:45,200 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 1: the entire I think, the entire state of Michigan. I'm

1104
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:51,680
Speaker 1: just mad at I had a bet on New Mexico.

1105
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:54,920
Speaker 1: I had a super long shot on UC San Diego,

1106
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 1: and then I had a future on Texas A and M.

1107
00:57:58,240 --> 00:58:02,240
Speaker 1: Michigan took both of them out, and here are the Wolverines.

1108
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:04,120
Speaker 1: I have to give credit to them. You could say

1109
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 1: that they're the close game Kings, but I think just

1110
00:58:07,840 --> 00:58:11,080
Speaker 1: like Michigan State in a three point defense, there's something

1111
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:15,000
Speaker 1: to be said about their execution advantage at the end

1112
00:58:15,080 --> 00:58:19,360
Speaker 1: of games. That was evident over really the final eight

1113
00:58:19,440 --> 00:58:23,200
Speaker 1: to ten minutes against Texas A and M. And I

1114
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:27,600
Speaker 1: also think Michigan kind of is enjoying getting out of

1115
00:58:27,760 --> 00:58:31,240
Speaker 1: the Big Ten just they have a unique scheme. It's

1116
00:58:31,280 --> 00:58:33,720
Speaker 1: hard to prepare for an attorney setting. Teams don't usually

1117
00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:36,960
Speaker 1: see the two seven footers running their pick and roll stuff.

1118
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:39,880
Speaker 1: Teams the Big Ten kind of got familiar with it,

1119
00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:42,800
Speaker 1: you know, learned how to adjust. They've seen it, so

1120
00:58:42,840 --> 00:58:45,800
Speaker 1: I think that's working in their favor. Turnovers are still

1121
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:48,600
Speaker 1: a major concern for Michigan, but they really cleaned them

1122
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:50,160
Speaker 1: up against Texas A and M. We'll see if that

1123
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:53,400
Speaker 1: can continue. Not as much of a concern against Auburn,

1124
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:56,880
Speaker 1: although you certainly don't want to throw too many possessions

1125
00:58:56,880 --> 00:59:01,520
Speaker 1: away here. How can Michigan pull off this upset? Well,

1126
00:59:02,320 --> 00:59:06,040
Speaker 1: I mean it's I think it's following a lot of

1127
00:59:06,080 --> 00:59:10,000
Speaker 1: that same formula that we saw against Texas A and M.

1128
00:59:10,080 --> 00:59:11,760
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's repeatable, but number one, you

1129
00:59:11,760 --> 00:59:13,200
Speaker 1: got to take care of the ball. I mean, they're

1130
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:16,400
Speaker 1: gonna have turnovers, but you can't get crazy here against

1131
00:59:16,400 --> 00:59:19,680
Speaker 1: a team that as good as Auburn. But can they

1132
00:59:19,720 --> 00:59:22,600
Speaker 1: get help? Can they get help from the role players?

1133
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:26,200
Speaker 1: That was the storyline of the game for me. There

1134
00:59:26,280 --> 00:59:27,840
Speaker 1: was a couple of times that Michigan looked like they

1135
00:59:27,880 --> 00:59:29,920
Speaker 1: were about to get run out of the gym and

1136
00:59:29,960 --> 00:59:33,080
Speaker 1: I thought it was over. They were plus four hundred

1137
00:59:33,080 --> 00:59:36,760
Speaker 1: plus four fifty plus five hundred live and Roddy Gale

1138
00:59:38,320 --> 00:59:41,760
Speaker 1: and LJ. Cason saved the day. And those are guys

1139
00:59:41,800 --> 00:59:45,200
Speaker 1: who have not been very reliable from an offensive standpoint

1140
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:49,880
Speaker 1: this year. So the thing is that Michigan coming into

1141
00:59:49,920 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 1: the tournament kind of like, oh, miss they can't make

1142
00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:56,680
Speaker 1: a three between February first and started the tournament twenty

1143
00:59:56,760 --> 00:59:59,840
Speaker 1: seven point five percent from three three hundred and fifty

1144
00:59:59,840 --> 01:00:02,440
Speaker 1: first the country. They were thirty seven percent over their

1145
01:00:02,440 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 1: first twenty games. Have they gotten any regression? No, they

1146
01:00:06,960 --> 01:00:09,640
Speaker 1: won their first two games despite twenty five percent three

1147
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:14,200
Speaker 1: point shooting. So Ken Gale, Ken Kasem, they're not great shooters,

1148
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:16,439
Speaker 1: but Ken they hit some more. Chatter is he gonna

1149
01:00:16,440 --> 01:00:18,040
Speaker 1: show up with some threes that they're gonna need their

1150
01:00:18,080 --> 01:00:22,320
Speaker 1: role players here to step up? And do you get

1151
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:25,640
Speaker 1: locked in Auburn from the jump or not? That's another

1152
01:00:25,720 --> 01:00:29,160
Speaker 1: key because I think if you're Michigan, just find a

1153
01:00:29,240 --> 01:00:33,200
Speaker 1: way to make this game close at the end. And

1154
01:00:33,240 --> 01:00:35,920
Speaker 1: who else has been who else will be more comfortable

1155
01:00:35,920 --> 01:00:40,360
Speaker 1: in a close game at the end than Michigan. I

1156
01:00:40,480 --> 01:00:46,080
Speaker 1: have this line kind of close to fair, so don't

1157
01:00:46,080 --> 01:00:48,760
Speaker 1: I don't think I'll have much here. Greg, you followed

1158
01:00:48,800 --> 01:00:50,520
Speaker 1: Michigan as close to anyone. What are your thoughts on

1159
01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:54,960
Speaker 1: the Wolverine so far and what they can do in

1160
01:00:55,080 --> 01:00:55,919
Speaker 1: this particular game.

1161
01:00:56,640 --> 01:00:59,919
Speaker 5: So I'm terrified here because I show value on Miss

1162
01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:02,760
Speaker 5: Michigan to cover I'm gonna take Michigan plus nine and

1163
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:05,800
Speaker 5: a half, and in this five game stretch where they

1164
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:07,680
Speaker 5: won the Big Ten Tournament, won two games in the

1165
01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:11,560
Speaker 5: NCAA Tournament. I've only been backing Michigan against the spread once,

1166
01:01:11,960 --> 01:01:14,280
Speaker 5: that was against San Diego. I really thought the turnover

1167
01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:17,959
Speaker 5: margin stuff was just a little overplayed there and everything else.

1168
01:01:18,040 --> 01:01:20,920
Speaker 1: I have you covered, I covered end you covered in

1169
01:01:21,000 --> 01:01:21,960
Speaker 1: that game. For what it's worth.

1170
01:01:22,360 --> 01:01:24,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, it worked out, we middled it, but I uh,

1171
01:01:25,160 --> 01:01:27,880
Speaker 5: it's just one of these one of these things where

1172
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:30,760
Speaker 5: you mentioned getting out of Big Ten play. I do

1173
01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:34,800
Speaker 5: think the two seven footers that Michigan employees, and they

1174
01:01:34,880 --> 01:01:37,560
Speaker 5: play them thirty two to thirty five minutes a game,

1175
01:01:37,600 --> 01:01:39,240
Speaker 5: they're trying to keep these guys on the floor of

1176
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:40,080
Speaker 5: the entire game.

1177
01:01:40,680 --> 01:01:43,920
Speaker 2: You really cannot prepare for it unless you have seen it.

1178
01:01:44,520 --> 01:01:46,400
Speaker 5: And in the Big Ten there's a lot of two

1179
01:01:46,480 --> 01:01:49,560
Speaker 5: big teams that I think by the end of conference play,

1180
01:01:49,600 --> 01:01:51,520
Speaker 5: the scout was out a little bit for teams within

1181
01:01:51,600 --> 01:01:55,200
Speaker 5: the conference that I just don't think you're capable of

1182
01:01:55,280 --> 01:01:57,480
Speaker 5: replicating that in the NCAA Tournament.

1183
01:01:57,560 --> 01:01:59,800
Speaker 2: I thought that affected A and m who you know,

1184
01:02:00,160 --> 01:02:01,280
Speaker 2: did dominate.

1185
01:02:00,920 --> 01:02:02,840
Speaker 5: The boards early in that game, but as the game

1186
01:02:02,920 --> 01:02:05,480
Speaker 5: wore down, even when they got second chances, they were

1187
01:02:05,560 --> 01:02:08,160
Speaker 5: bothered by the size trying to finish with the putbacks.

1188
01:02:08,240 --> 01:02:10,880
Speaker 5: And you know, I look through Auburn's season, they have

1189
01:02:11,000 --> 01:02:13,200
Speaker 5: five losses on the year. This was a team that

1190
01:02:13,320 --> 01:02:16,040
Speaker 5: was the most dominant team in the sport for four months.

1191
01:02:16,640 --> 01:02:18,720
Speaker 5: They haven't been the same since Jenni Broom got hurt,

1192
01:02:18,880 --> 01:02:21,960
Speaker 5: or since he reaggravated that shoulder injury in the game

1193
01:02:22,000 --> 01:02:23,640
Speaker 5: against Kentucky six games ago.

1194
01:02:24,280 --> 01:02:25,280
Speaker 2: He banged it up again.

1195
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:28,760
Speaker 5: Since that game, Auburn is three and three outright. They

1196
01:02:28,800 --> 01:02:33,320
Speaker 5: are thirtieth nationally per Torvik. In those last six games.

1197
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:36,400
Speaker 5: I mean, they have not been the same team. You

1198
01:02:36,480 --> 01:02:39,320
Speaker 5: look at their five losses this year, there's a commonality

1199
01:02:39,360 --> 01:02:41,439
Speaker 5: there where the teams that beat Auburn even when Broom

1200
01:02:41,600 --> 01:02:44,600
Speaker 5: was healthy, were teams that have pretty elite two point

1201
01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:47,480
Speaker 5: defenses that have the size to go one on one

1202
01:02:47,560 --> 01:02:49,680
Speaker 5: with Broom and to stay home on all of the

1203
01:02:49,720 --> 01:02:51,920
Speaker 5: Auburn guards and shooters. Because this team's a lot more

1204
01:02:52,040 --> 01:02:55,400
Speaker 5: dangerous when they have Pettiford or Kelly or Denver Jones

1205
01:02:55,480 --> 01:02:59,560
Speaker 5: popping off alongside Jenni Broom and I think Michigan is

1206
01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:01,320
Speaker 5: going to be able to do that. I think they're

1207
01:03:01,320 --> 01:03:03,320
Speaker 5: gonna single cover him with Black Golden. They have the

1208
01:03:03,360 --> 01:03:06,560
Speaker 5: thirteenth best two point percentage defense. They're gonna sit back

1209
01:03:06,600 --> 01:03:11,080
Speaker 5: and basically live with their size advantage and say, go

1210
01:03:11,200 --> 01:03:12,160
Speaker 5: beat us one on one.

1211
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:14,920
Speaker 2: Now it's Jani Broom. He's good enough to do that.

1212
01:03:15,280 --> 01:03:18,200
Speaker 5: He's had great games in this six game stretch, even

1213
01:03:18,320 --> 01:03:19,520
Speaker 5: though the team has struggled.

1214
01:03:19,840 --> 01:03:21,560
Speaker 2: He had a thirty five point game. He's had a

1215
01:03:21,600 --> 01:03:22,840
Speaker 2: couple of twenty plus point games.

1216
01:03:22,920 --> 01:03:25,760
Speaker 5: It's possible, but I think this is the first matchup

1217
01:03:25,800 --> 01:03:28,600
Speaker 5: in this tournament that Dusty May will look at and

1218
01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:31,960
Speaker 5: he'll respect how good Auburn is. He's not worried about

1219
01:03:32,080 --> 01:03:34,680
Speaker 5: the scheme disadvantage here the way you were with A

1220
01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:37,680
Speaker 5: and M or even with U see San Diego. So

1221
01:03:38,440 --> 01:03:41,040
Speaker 5: I am going to take the points. They play a

1222
01:03:41,080 --> 01:03:43,400
Speaker 5: bunch of close games. It's gonna come down to shot making,

1223
01:03:43,480 --> 01:03:45,280
Speaker 5: like you said. And just to add a note to

1224
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:49,280
Speaker 5: it's a weird vibes game. Motivationally, obviously, it's a sweet sixteen.

1225
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:52,360
Speaker 5: Everybody wants and everybody cares. But this is Danny Wolf

1226
01:03:53,000 --> 01:03:55,600
Speaker 5: against the team that he bounced in the tournament last

1227
01:03:55,640 --> 01:03:58,320
Speaker 5: year that had Jedi Broom and Bruce Pearl and Deva

1228
01:03:58,440 --> 01:03:59,560
Speaker 5: Jones in many of these faces.

1229
01:04:00,000 --> 01:04:01,240
Speaker 2: And it's Trey Donnerdy.

1230
01:04:00,960 --> 01:04:04,480
Speaker 5: Donaldson against his old program, which the story there is

1231
01:04:04,560 --> 01:04:07,400
Speaker 5: that Bruce Pearl didn't even entertain the idea of bringing

1232
01:04:07,440 --> 01:04:10,520
Speaker 5: him back. So motivationally, there's gonna be a lot of emotions.

1233
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:12,520
Speaker 5: I mentioned how in the arena it's gonna be a

1234
01:04:12,560 --> 01:04:14,960
Speaker 5: weird vibe, especially if Michigan State wins. Who are they

1235
01:04:15,040 --> 01:04:18,040
Speaker 5: rooting for? But uh, I think all of those weird

1236
01:04:18,120 --> 01:04:22,000
Speaker 5: motivational factors will make this a strange close game that

1237
01:04:22,080 --> 01:04:23,520
Speaker 5: plays right into Michigan's hands.

1238
01:04:23,560 --> 01:04:24,280
Speaker 2: I'll take the points.

1239
01:04:25,040 --> 01:04:28,200
Speaker 1: If you're a Michigan State fan going there, you gotta

1240
01:04:28,280 --> 01:04:32,560
Speaker 1: like bring a Michigan shirt and a mask so that

1241
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:36,960
Speaker 1: you don't get caught by friends and family rooting for

1242
01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:41,200
Speaker 1: Michigan on live TV. Maybe that's the way to go here.

1243
01:04:42,200 --> 01:04:46,439
Speaker 1: By the way, Trey Donaldson all year major clutch cheat.

1244
01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:51,160
Speaker 1: That guy's made so many big shots throughout the season.

1245
01:04:51,640 --> 01:04:54,440
Speaker 1: But yeah, lots of story this one. You mentioned Auburn, Like,

1246
01:04:54,520 --> 01:04:58,960
Speaker 1: I'm just having trouble rating, like getting a handled where

1247
01:04:58,960 --> 01:05:03,680
Speaker 1: Auburn is like, were they coasting? There has been some injuries.

1248
01:05:03,720 --> 01:05:06,680
Speaker 1: Are they fully healthy? Were they just checked out? And

1249
01:05:06,840 --> 01:05:08,840
Speaker 1: can they? Will they just turn it on? Like we

1250
01:05:08,920 --> 01:05:10,800
Speaker 1: saw some of that with their perimeter defense in the

1251
01:05:10,840 --> 01:05:13,600
Speaker 1: second half against Creighton. They really started to lock in,

1252
01:05:14,400 --> 01:05:16,640
Speaker 1: But like, are there some underlying issues there? Can I

1253
01:05:16,720 --> 01:05:18,960
Speaker 1: trust them to be fully locked in from the jump here?

1254
01:05:21,640 --> 01:05:23,680
Speaker 1: I don't know. I just don't have a great feel

1255
01:05:23,680 --> 01:05:27,560
Speaker 1: in Auburn right now. I bet them against Crayton felt

1256
01:05:27,680 --> 01:05:31,040
Speaker 1: pretty fortunate. I was like begging for a late run

1257
01:05:31,120 --> 01:05:36,440
Speaker 1: in Denver. Jones luckily got that miraculous end one. So

1258
01:05:36,600 --> 01:05:42,000
Speaker 1: it wasn't the best bet that I'll ever have. So yeah,

1259
01:05:42,080 --> 01:05:44,280
Speaker 1: but if you're a Michigan fan, just get this close.

1260
01:05:44,480 --> 01:05:48,320
Speaker 1: Like the Michigan is so comfortable in these games late

1261
01:05:48,360 --> 01:05:50,240
Speaker 1: in the second half. That's got to give credit to

1262
01:05:50,320 --> 01:05:52,040
Speaker 1: Dusty make for that. Godbrey's what are you seeing here?

1263
01:05:52,600 --> 01:05:55,480
Speaker 6: We keep talking about the venue and Michigan State fans,

1264
01:05:55,760 --> 01:05:58,080
Speaker 6: you know, going in the bush's Homer Simpsons style and

1265
01:05:58,160 --> 01:06:00,160
Speaker 6: coming out as a Michigan fan, and that's all well

1266
01:06:00,200 --> 01:06:02,760
Speaker 6: and good, but this is essentially going to be Auburn East.

1267
01:06:02,840 --> 01:06:05,000
Speaker 6: It's less than two hours for their fan base. They're

1268
01:06:05,080 --> 01:06:07,440
Speaker 6: going to be absolutely locked in, so there could be

1269
01:06:07,680 --> 01:06:10,479
Speaker 6: a pretty significant advantage in terms of a neutral site

1270
01:06:10,720 --> 01:06:12,480
Speaker 6: with how many Auburn fans are going to be there.

1271
01:06:12,800 --> 01:06:15,360
Speaker 6: I will mention this as well. I forgot to add

1272
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:17,600
Speaker 6: in this nugget when we were talking about Maryland for

1273
01:06:17,720 --> 01:06:20,640
Speaker 6: that game against Florida, just to consider this, they played

1274
01:06:20,680 --> 01:06:23,720
Speaker 6: in Seattle, they stayed on the West Coast, where then

1275
01:06:23,920 --> 01:06:26,480
Speaker 6: Florida played in Raleigh, and they have to adapt to

1276
01:06:26,680 --> 01:06:29,520
Speaker 6: the time change, the three hour shift. So just somebody

1277
01:06:29,520 --> 01:06:32,320
Speaker 6: to consider a rare opportunity for two East Coast teams,

1278
01:06:32,600 --> 01:06:35,640
Speaker 6: but one has the rest advantage of already being out

1279
01:06:35,680 --> 01:06:38,000
Speaker 6: there and being acclimated. We'll see if that makes difference.

1280
01:06:37,720 --> 01:06:38,120
Speaker 1: To all or not.

1281
01:06:38,760 --> 01:06:41,320
Speaker 6: But I can't get past in terms of like Auburn

1282
01:06:41,400 --> 01:06:43,480
Speaker 6: being this big of a favorite. When you look at

1283
01:06:43,600 --> 01:06:47,120
Speaker 6: momentum per HAZL metrics of the sixteen teams left, they're

1284
01:06:47,200 --> 01:06:49,560
Speaker 6: dead last, sure because they were at such a high

1285
01:06:49,640 --> 01:06:52,040
Speaker 6: level earlier in the season, but they're three hundred and

1286
01:06:52,120 --> 01:06:55,800
Speaker 6: thirty sixth in the entire country in momentum. I just

1287
01:06:55,920 --> 01:06:58,040
Speaker 6: don't see him as the same fire breathers they were

1288
01:06:58,080 --> 01:07:01,760
Speaker 6: in November December January. They're just not beating the doors

1289
01:07:01,800 --> 01:07:03,480
Speaker 6: off of teams. I mean, creating the game was a

1290
01:07:03,520 --> 01:07:06,440
Speaker 6: six point game what with two minutes left, So I

1291
01:07:06,480 --> 01:07:08,240
Speaker 6: don't know. I'm happy to take the points that would

1292
01:07:08,240 --> 01:07:11,160
Speaker 6: certainly be my lean and until they show me that

1293
01:07:11,240 --> 01:07:13,840
Speaker 6: they can rev the engine backup, even with a partisan

1294
01:07:13,920 --> 01:07:16,200
Speaker 6: crowd backing them, I don't really see how you can

1295
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:19,400
Speaker 6: feel confident about them beating this particular Michigan team who's

1296
01:07:19,440 --> 01:07:22,320
Speaker 6: played what fourteen games that have been decided by four

1297
01:07:22,360 --> 01:07:24,920
Speaker 6: points or less, Like this is their identity, their mo

1298
01:07:25,200 --> 01:07:27,919
Speaker 6: they haven't gotten boat raced in so long. I don't

1299
01:07:27,920 --> 01:07:29,560
Speaker 6: see you can have a ton of confidence in Auburn

1300
01:07:29,600 --> 01:07:30,320
Speaker 6: winning going away.

1301
01:07:30,760 --> 01:07:33,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean we'll see if if I think it's

1302
01:07:33,280 --> 01:07:34,800
Speaker 1: the game that if you're going to like see it

1303
01:07:35,120 --> 01:07:38,760
Speaker 1: from Auburn, like the team that many have expected and

1304
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:43,080
Speaker 1: solved for up until the last couple weeks, Like it's

1305
01:07:43,120 --> 01:07:45,120
Speaker 1: time to lock in from the jump, So we'll see

1306
01:07:45,520 --> 01:07:47,600
Speaker 1: what Auburn has in store. Because you just you don't

1307
01:07:47,600 --> 01:07:49,040
Speaker 1: want to they also don't want to look. Like I said,

1308
01:07:49,040 --> 01:07:52,800
Speaker 1: you don't want to let Michigan hang around, and you

1309
01:07:52,840 --> 01:07:55,000
Speaker 1: want to jump on them in the first half. You know,

1310
01:07:55,440 --> 01:07:59,000
Speaker 1: my wild card in that game is sharere, like, can

1311
01:07:59,080 --> 01:08:01,120
Speaker 1: you make like a couple a couple of big threes.

1312
01:08:01,520 --> 01:08:03,000
Speaker 1: I feel like he's been off for a while. I

1313
01:08:03,080 --> 01:08:04,760
Speaker 1: think I haven't hit I haven't seen him hit a three,

1314
01:08:04,800 --> 01:08:06,600
Speaker 1: and like, let me check, what are your thoughts on

1315
01:08:06,720 --> 01:08:09,400
Speaker 1: chatter having like you know, especially against those Auburn biggs,

1316
01:08:09,440 --> 01:08:12,280
Speaker 1: like coming in pulling them out a little bit. Yeah,

1317
01:08:12,320 --> 01:08:15,920
Speaker 1: he's three at eighteen over his past six games. And

1318
01:08:16,040 --> 01:08:17,840
Speaker 1: this is the guy, like I mean last year shot

1319
01:08:17,920 --> 01:08:18,880
Speaker 1: fifty percent from three.

1320
01:08:19,680 --> 01:08:21,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, keep an eye on Hurt Net are the keys

1321
01:08:21,800 --> 01:08:23,920
Speaker 5: to me because somebody's got to make shots. Burnett got

1322
01:08:24,000 --> 01:08:27,000
Speaker 5: benched against A and M plays season low thirteen minutes

1323
01:08:27,040 --> 01:08:29,720
Speaker 5: I think, and he's been an awesome off ball guy.

1324
01:08:29,840 --> 01:08:31,840
Speaker 2: So with any one of those two at.

1325
01:08:31,760 --> 01:08:36,320
Speaker 1: Minimum YEP or maybe Roddy Gale, the Roddy Gale resurgence continues.

1326
01:08:37,680 --> 01:08:41,719
Speaker 1: Twenty six pretty wild against an M out of nowhere

1327
01:08:41,880 --> 01:08:44,960
Speaker 1: for a guy that shoots I don't know, twenty percent

1328
01:08:45,000 --> 01:08:46,760
Speaker 1: from three or something like that. I think he was

1329
01:08:46,840 --> 01:08:49,840
Speaker 1: like eight percent in conference play, wasn't he.

1330
01:08:50,160 --> 01:08:54,320
Speaker 2: Yale made three to three since January first, made four

1331
01:08:54,360 --> 01:08:55,040
Speaker 2: in that game.

1332
01:08:57,120 --> 01:08:59,240
Speaker 1: All right. So let's move on to the final game

1333
01:08:59,439 --> 01:09:04,040
Speaker 1: this week. Six team, probably the most boring from being

1334
01:09:04,840 --> 01:09:07,479
Speaker 1: Frank totals one thirty two and a half, which, to

1335
01:09:07,560 --> 01:09:09,160
Speaker 1: tell you a lot about this game, used an eight

1336
01:09:09,200 --> 01:09:14,520
Speaker 1: point favorite against Purdue. This is also at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis.

1337
01:09:14,560 --> 01:09:16,040
Speaker 1: Tip ten o nine Eastern on TBS.

1338
01:09:17,560 --> 01:09:17,920
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1339
01:09:17,960 --> 01:09:20,360
Speaker 1: I mean, it's hard for me to that's pretty close

1340
01:09:20,400 --> 01:09:24,840
Speaker 1: to the number here. I'm worried about Purdue, Like, yeah,

1341
01:09:24,880 --> 01:09:27,320
Speaker 1: they have a great coach, they have a great one

1342
01:09:27,320 --> 01:09:31,960
Speaker 1: to two combo and Smith TKR. They're gonna have to

1343
01:09:32,040 --> 01:09:34,240
Speaker 1: use tkrs like a short roller a lot in this game.

1344
01:09:34,240 --> 01:09:37,160
Speaker 1: And then they're gonna there. Their role players are gonna

1345
01:09:37,160 --> 01:09:40,640
Speaker 1: need to make shots. Lawyer's gonna have to have a

1346
01:09:40,680 --> 01:09:43,800
Speaker 1: big day. This game is gonna be a grinder. It's

1347
01:09:43,800 --> 01:09:46,360
Speaker 1: gonna be in the half court. It's not gonna be pretty.

1348
01:09:47,680 --> 01:09:51,160
Speaker 1: But I'm worried about produce, like just overall athletic disadvantage

1349
01:09:51,560 --> 01:09:56,360
Speaker 1: across the board, and I'm worried about their defense just

1350
01:09:56,439 --> 01:09:58,080
Speaker 1: being a house of cards. So we talked about the

1351
01:09:58,120 --> 01:10:00,960
Speaker 1: two point defense. It's like otside the top three fifty

1352
01:10:01,040 --> 01:10:05,160
Speaker 1: this year. Painters kind of addressed that schematically, but they're

1353
01:10:05,200 --> 01:10:08,559
Speaker 1: just packing it in. And then they're just saying, make

1354
01:10:08,720 --> 01:10:11,160
Speaker 1: shots because we know we can't protect the rim, so

1355
01:10:11,200 --> 01:10:13,599
Speaker 1: we're just gonna pack it all the way in. Houston's

1356
01:10:13,640 --> 01:10:18,000
Speaker 1: capable of making shots. If now, maybe in a football stadium,

1357
01:10:18,240 --> 01:10:21,439
Speaker 1: they're just stone cold, and then you gotta wory about

1358
01:10:21,439 --> 01:10:23,640
Speaker 1: them playing volleyball, you gotta worry about t krrigan and

1359
01:10:23,680 --> 01:10:28,479
Speaker 1: foul trouble, but you'll live with those chances. But I mean, Houston,

1360
01:10:28,520 --> 01:10:29,960
Speaker 1: they don't choot a ton of threes, but when they do,

1361
01:10:30,520 --> 01:10:33,040
Speaker 1: they're one of the best. If Houston is on to

1362
01:10:33,120 --> 01:10:36,679
Speaker 1: start this game from three, they're making threes, then produce

1363
01:10:36,720 --> 01:10:39,920
Speaker 1: us to unpack their defense, and then it's gonna get

1364
01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:45,920
Speaker 1: ugly because I just don't think that Purdue can consistently

1365
01:10:46,040 --> 01:10:49,719
Speaker 1: run the offense at once two against this Houston defense

1366
01:10:51,080 --> 01:10:53,120
Speaker 1: unless some of their other role players are stepping up.

1367
01:10:53,160 --> 01:10:54,960
Speaker 1: And I'm not sure I fully trust them. Yes, they

1368
01:10:55,240 --> 01:10:58,240
Speaker 1: were great, they're great ball moving against McNee State. They

1369
01:10:58,240 --> 01:11:00,320
Speaker 1: did a great game plan in that game, but their

1370
01:11:00,320 --> 01:11:02,400
Speaker 1: first two games were against High Point and McNee State.

1371
01:11:03,320 --> 01:11:06,519
Speaker 1: This is a big step up in class. Then again,

1372
01:11:06,560 --> 01:11:08,240
Speaker 1: it's Houston like they're going to grind the game down.

1373
01:11:08,280 --> 01:11:09,840
Speaker 1: Who knows it could be like fifty four to fifty

1374
01:11:09,920 --> 01:11:14,160
Speaker 1: with two minutes to go, So I think the spread

1375
01:11:14,280 --> 01:11:19,120
Speaker 1: is I'll tell you what I make it. I'm just worried. Ultimately,

1376
01:11:19,120 --> 01:11:21,439
Speaker 1: I'm just worried about the physicality event. I'm worried about

1377
01:11:21,439 --> 01:11:24,759
Speaker 1: Houston just making shots in this Purdue house of cards,

1378
01:11:24,840 --> 01:11:29,439
Speaker 1: defense just all falling apart. I mean I make it

1379
01:11:29,479 --> 01:11:33,360
Speaker 1: around eight, So eight eight and a half, Greg, what

1380
01:11:33,400 --> 01:11:35,639
Speaker 1: are you seeing here in Purdue Houston?

1381
01:11:36,240 --> 01:11:38,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's a world where both defenses find

1382
01:11:38,560 --> 01:11:39,280
Speaker 2: a lot of success.

1383
01:11:39,320 --> 01:11:41,080
Speaker 5: I'm going to take the under. One thirty two and

1384
01:11:41,080 --> 01:11:42,880
Speaker 5: a half is what I got it at two very

1385
01:11:42,920 --> 01:11:47,280
Speaker 5: slow teams. Purdue picks their spots to run, and when

1386
01:11:47,320 --> 01:11:50,960
Speaker 5: they feel they're at a talent disadvantage, they get extremely

1387
01:11:51,200 --> 01:11:54,839
Speaker 5: deliberately slow. Look back to Michigan State game at the Breslan,

1388
01:11:54,880 --> 01:11:59,200
Speaker 5: a sixty possession game. They played sixty possessions against High Point.

1389
01:11:59,200 --> 01:12:02,439
Speaker 5: They played games at fifty nine possessions. This year, I

1390
01:12:02,560 --> 01:12:05,760
Speaker 5: think we're gonna see a lot of snail's pace from

1391
01:12:05,800 --> 01:12:09,200
Speaker 5: Braiden Smith and TKR sort of walk it up, drain

1392
01:12:09,240 --> 01:12:11,839
Speaker 5: the clock, play the short role, minimize possessions.

1393
01:12:11,880 --> 01:12:12,840
Speaker 2: That's our best chance to win.

1394
01:12:12,960 --> 01:12:16,000
Speaker 5: This is an extremely high IQ basketball team, and I

1395
01:12:16,080 --> 01:12:19,120
Speaker 5: think Houston's gonna be perfectly comfortable with that. That's the

1396
01:12:19,200 --> 01:12:21,320
Speaker 5: weird dichotomy where it kind of plays right into what

1397
01:12:21,400 --> 01:12:25,599
Speaker 5: Houston wants. Anyway, I could see Kaufman w Ren getting

1398
01:12:25,640 --> 01:12:28,720
Speaker 5: the Houston Biggs in foul trouble. One thing is they're

1399
01:12:28,760 --> 01:12:31,200
Speaker 5: not huge. I mean, they're all six to eight pretty

1400
01:12:31,280 --> 01:12:34,439
Speaker 5: much down low. And I do think TKR is kind

1401
01:12:34,479 --> 01:12:37,000
Speaker 5: of complex enough as a cover with his footwork to

1402
01:12:37,600 --> 01:12:39,840
Speaker 5: cost some issues for the Houston Biggs.

1403
01:12:39,920 --> 01:12:41,080
Speaker 2: But it's one of those things.

1404
01:12:41,160 --> 01:12:42,800
Speaker 5: Even if he's going to the free throw line a lot,

1405
01:12:42,880 --> 01:12:45,120
Speaker 5: he's not a great free throw shooter. It just feels

1406
01:12:45,160 --> 01:12:47,200
Speaker 5: like this could end up being a clunky, late night

1407
01:12:47,280 --> 01:12:48,519
Speaker 5: game in a football stadium.

1408
01:12:49,000 --> 01:12:50,800
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna just rock with the under.

1409
01:12:50,920 --> 01:12:53,599
Speaker 5: I expect Houston to win, but maybe out of respect

1410
01:12:53,640 --> 01:12:55,479
Speaker 5: for Braden Smith and Matt Painter, I don't want to

1411
01:12:55,560 --> 01:12:56,160
Speaker 5: touch the spread.

1412
01:12:57,600 --> 01:13:02,879
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean just daring teams shoot threes. Houston's

1413
01:13:02,960 --> 01:13:05,160
Speaker 1: number one in the country in three point percenters, that's

1414
01:13:05,240 --> 01:13:06,840
Speaker 1: the fear. But they don't like to shoot a lot.

1415
01:13:06,880 --> 01:13:10,000
Speaker 1: They like to shoot mid range jumpers. That's where they

1416
01:13:10,120 --> 01:13:12,960
Speaker 1: like to live. And then if they miss, they they're

1417
01:13:13,000 --> 01:13:14,360
Speaker 1: good there. But if they miss, they try to get

1418
01:13:14,360 --> 01:13:16,160
Speaker 1: the offensive rebound. But if the Duke pats it in

1419
01:13:16,240 --> 01:13:18,040
Speaker 1: and they're not making jumpers, they can compete on the

1420
01:13:18,080 --> 01:13:21,960
Speaker 1: defensive class enough, but they're gonna need someone else to

1421
01:13:22,040 --> 01:13:25,240
Speaker 1: step up, like probably a couple other guys. Lawyer has

1422
01:13:25,280 --> 01:13:30,000
Speaker 1: to be one of them. And then like in this game,

1423
01:13:30,120 --> 01:13:36,000
Speaker 1: can you you probably need like Heidi to be big

1424
01:13:38,439 --> 01:13:43,080
Speaker 1: just to make some shots. Uh So, yeah, I mean

1425
01:13:43,080 --> 01:13:46,559
Speaker 1: they're they're gonna because Houston's gonna swarm. They're gonna swarm Takr.

1426
01:13:46,640 --> 01:13:51,280
Speaker 1: They're gonna swarm Smith with the ball, and that's how

1427
01:13:51,320 --> 01:13:52,960
Speaker 1: you beat Houston. You got to move the ball, which

1428
01:13:52,960 --> 01:13:56,760
Speaker 1: Produe can do. But they're gonna need some some of

1429
01:13:56,800 --> 01:13:59,360
Speaker 1: their role players to hit shots. And then they're gonna

1430
01:13:59,360 --> 01:14:01,519
Speaker 1: have to hope Houston does not have a great shooting night,

1431
01:14:01,560 --> 01:14:04,000
Speaker 1: because that's basically what their defense is at this moment

1432
01:14:04,040 --> 01:14:06,760
Speaker 1: because they don't have room protection. They're basically saying, hey,

1433
01:14:06,800 --> 01:14:09,160
Speaker 1: shoot from three Calvary's. You also are on board with

1434
01:14:09,160 --> 01:14:11,080
Speaker 1: the under. Yeah, see the under by the way, for.

1435
01:14:11,080 --> 01:14:13,680
Speaker 6: Sure, give me the under here. We talked about at

1436
01:14:13,680 --> 01:14:16,400
Speaker 6: the pace, the half court defense. What Houston takes away

1437
01:14:16,439 --> 01:14:18,320
Speaker 6: their pick and roll defense when it comes to the

1438
01:14:18,360 --> 01:14:21,920
Speaker 6: primary ball handler, their tenth, their mid range defense thirty second.

1439
01:14:22,120 --> 01:14:24,439
Speaker 6: That kind of throws out what Braden Smith wants to do,

1440
01:14:24,600 --> 01:14:26,599
Speaker 6: being able to take those picks and pull up from

1441
01:14:26,640 --> 01:14:29,240
Speaker 6: seventeen feet their first and half court defense on a

1442
01:14:29,320 --> 01:14:32,679
Speaker 6: per game basis in terms of overall points and per possession.

1443
01:14:32,960 --> 01:14:34,439
Speaker 6: And then when you look when they were paired up

1444
01:14:34,439 --> 01:14:37,640
Speaker 6: against slow teams in the Big twelve, West Virginia, Baylor, Cincinnati,

1445
01:14:37,680 --> 01:14:40,200
Speaker 6: those games averaged out it's one hundred and twenty eight per.

1446
01:14:40,520 --> 01:14:42,640
Speaker 6: I think that's what where this number should be closer to.

1447
01:14:42,880 --> 01:14:44,960
Speaker 6: So one thirty two and a half one thirty three.

1448
01:14:45,040 --> 01:14:47,320
Speaker 6: I'm on the under here. Yes, there is the fear

1449
01:14:47,520 --> 01:14:49,840
Speaker 6: of a hot start for Houston from three point range

1450
01:14:50,000 --> 01:14:52,160
Speaker 6: and Purdue has to kind of throw a caution too

1451
01:14:52,160 --> 01:14:53,680
Speaker 6: the win and speed it up a little bit. I

1452
01:14:53,720 --> 01:14:56,680
Speaker 6: could see that element creeping in as a potential to

1453
01:14:57,200 --> 01:14:59,080
Speaker 6: come up the works in terms of an under. But

1454
01:14:59,240 --> 01:15:02,000
Speaker 6: if both teams are successful in slowing this down, I

1455
01:15:02,040 --> 01:15:04,200
Speaker 6: could see this one played in the low sixties. You

1456
01:15:04,280 --> 01:15:06,360
Speaker 6: know a team struggling to get to fifty five here.

1457
01:15:06,800 --> 01:15:08,400
Speaker 6: So with that being the case, I'm just going to

1458
01:15:08,439 --> 01:15:08,960
Speaker 6: go under.

1459
01:15:09,200 --> 01:15:11,960
Speaker 1: All right consensus there between you two. I can see

1460
01:15:12,000 --> 01:15:15,639
Speaker 1: it too. Stamp I approval on that you two have consensus.

1461
01:15:15,680 --> 01:15:19,519
Speaker 1: On Michigan, I have no strong feel there. We also

1462
01:15:19,600 --> 01:15:22,599
Speaker 1: have some consensus Michigan state more or less like either

1463
01:15:22,840 --> 01:15:25,840
Speaker 1: pregame or look for them live. We're all on board

1464
01:15:25,880 --> 01:15:31,000
Speaker 1: with BYU. We will call that the show that of

1465
01:15:31,360 --> 01:15:35,160
Speaker 1: the Sweet sixteen Go Mormons. But that'll do it for us.

1466
01:15:35,880 --> 01:15:38,320
Speaker 1: Thanks to Greg and Mike for joining me. Thanks to

1467
01:15:38,360 --> 01:15:41,720
Speaker 1: our producer on the back end. Also, we will have

1468
01:15:42,880 --> 01:15:46,439
Speaker 1: two live player prop shows on the Action Network YouTube

1469
01:15:46,439 --> 01:15:47,840
Speaker 1: page end in the Action of work ap tomorrow, the

1470
01:15:47,880 --> 01:15:50,200
Speaker 1: first at three pm, the seconds at five thirty pm

1471
01:15:50,240 --> 01:15:54,960
Speaker 1: Eastern with Mike, Nick Giffin, Sean Gernner and more So.

1472
01:15:55,479 --> 01:15:58,200
Speaker 1: Enjoy the madness, good luck with your bets. Hope to

1473
01:15:58,240 --> 01:16:01,560
Speaker 1: see some of you in Chicago on Saturday. Make you

1474
01:16:01,600 --> 01:16:03,560
Speaker 1: subscribe on Strap, subscribe til friends on how you Know

1475
01:16:03,600 --> 01:16:05,720
Speaker 1: the Deal. Five star review really helps us out. Let's

1476
01:16:05,720 --> 01:16:08,160
Speaker 1: get hot for the rest of the journey, cash future,

1477
01:16:08,479 --> 01:16:11,240
Speaker 1: get some dramatic in finishes, catch up.

1478
01:16:11,200 --> 01:16:26,840
Speaker 3: With your cheers, head course shots and mascot spuzzer BEATASAA.

1479
01:16:23,880 --> 01:16:25,920
Speaker 1: That short unteous.

1480
01:16:28,320 --> 01:16:34,160
Speaker 4: Keep cheering, disappearing freshman with a hot hand shoots and scores.

1481
01:16:35,560 --> 01:16:41,120
Speaker 1: Marches s you prior.

1482
01:16:41,280 --> 01:16:43,080
Speaker 2: Oh no no mad got a little madness in my

1483
01:16:43,680 --> 01:16:44,800
Speaker 2: hit me out, my moment juke.

1484
01:16:46,600 --> 01:17:00,680
Speaker 1: Marches Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1485
01:17:01,120 --> 01:17:03,920
Speaker 6: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1486
01:17:04,240 --> 01:17:06,840
Speaker 6: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1487
01:17:06,960 --> 01:17:07,679
Speaker 6: hundred Gambler