1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, a single best. 2 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:16,279 Speaker 2: Idea, and this is what surveillance is about. When we 3 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,919 Speaker 2: started doing this a zillion years ago, it was about 4 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 2: the intellectual abilities of these guests and touching upon the 5 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 2: secret sauce, the pixie dust of why they were at 6 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 2: a given bank, a given university, a given investment shop 7 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 2: around the world. And this is part of doing economics, finance, investment, 8 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 2: and indeed international relations. Major shout out today to Henrietta 9 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 2: Trees on Short Time Veda Partners on all the news 10 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 2: out of Washington. I thought, just a great job by 11 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg team working literally overnight, Stephen Dennis leading our 12 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 2: coverage on Capitol Hill, with Zach Cohen and Josh Wing 13 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 2: Grove out at the White House as well many others. 14 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 2: It's just a huge team response. But we started with 15 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 2: bonds and equity and what you're going to hear here 16 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:10,399 Speaker 2: our windows into the way these people really talk when 17 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 2: they don't dumb it down. For Tom Keene, here's a 18 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 2: mandolin on Blackrock with the linkage here of accounting, an 19 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 2: incentive and debt new issuance. 20 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 3: There are two things to consider. One is a lot 21 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 3: of these companies are still in a net cash position, 22 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 3: which is important. So they're adding debt to their capital structure, 23 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 3: but their leverage is still incredibly low because they have 24 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 3: all of this cash on their balandcyet. The question is 25 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 3: why that's left over from the pre twenty seventeen era 26 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 3: when cash was generated overseas and then it needed to 27 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 3: be taxed to be repatriated back to the US. So 28 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 3: there's still some cash over there is the point. The 29 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:52,559 Speaker 3: second point is that there's a bit of an upper 30 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 3: bound to how big these capital structures can get. So 31 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 3: in our note, which you know we outline, we estimate 32 00:01:59,920 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 3: that if you look at just like the mag seven 33 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 3: X Tesla, so removing autos, there's probably an incremental four 34 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 3: hundred billion plus of incremental debt capacity if you just 35 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 3: increase the gross leverage by half a turn, really modest, 36 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 3: that's a really large number. But we don't expect that 37 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 3: to be utilized because these capital structures, we think cannot 38 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:21,079 Speaker 3: get that large, and also that deck capacity will just 39 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 3: be used gradually over time for strategic opportunity. 40 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 2: Absolutely brilliant, Just to put one idea in here, it's 41 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 2: like foreign exchange every day, even as smart as you are, 42 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 2: you have to go. Okay, it's euros as compared to dollars, 43 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 2: but it's dollars as compared again basic stuff and the 44 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 2: amandelidum world. What is so interesting is traditional finance, but 45 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 2: using it applied across these technology juggernauts. It's not the 46 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:56,360 Speaker 2: same math, it's not the same microeconomics, it's not the 47 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 2: same Fabosi or is v body up Austin University. It's 48 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 2: something original going on right now. As we see with 49 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 2: these billion dollar transactions of thirty year paper that seemed 50 00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 2: to be sold on five phone calls. One of those 51 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:13,799 Speaker 2: phone calls may go to B and P. Perry by 52 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 2: other French giant. Greg Boudel has been just wonderful in equities, 53 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 2: in the derivative dynamics of the equity market. Here Greg 54 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 2: Boudel with enthusiasm. 55 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 4: Well, essentially, what we've seen is this kind of pocket 56 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 4: of turbulence. The last couple of weeks government shutdown has 57 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 4: been a part of it. We think is kind of 58 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 4: positioning led that the market got a bit of ahead 59 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 4: of itself in September with this kind of real reach 60 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 4: for upside, this exuberant rally. But what we've seen out 61 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 4: of the last say three or four weeks, is a 62 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 4: pullback inequities, pick up in volatility at a time when 63 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:47,640 Speaker 4: the newsflow that we have had, the bottom up newsflow 64 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 4: has actually been very strong. 65 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 2: Earnings. 66 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 3: We've just been through kind of the vast majority of earnings. 67 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 4: Were they good enough for this market? Were they good 68 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 4: enough for you and your call on this market? 69 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 3: Yeah? 70 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 4: I think they were a really good earning season. I mean, 71 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 4: you can start with the large cap tech and I 72 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 4: think one of the best ways to look at the 73 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 4: lens of earnings and distill the information is what did 74 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 4: all the analysts do that cover the stocks with next 75 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 4: year's numbers? And they took all of those numbers higher. 76 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 4: So they digested that news, from the calls, from the releases, 77 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 4: and they increased their forecast. 78 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,280 Speaker 2: Good Bottle b MP pery by with a really terse 79 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:23,600 Speaker 2: optimistic note. On podcasts, We're on an Apple on Spotify, 80 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 2: on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea