1 00:00:11,697 --> 00:00:14,977 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcastle make sure 2 00:00:15,017 --> 00:00:17,977 Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or 3 00:00:18,017 --> 00:00:24,177 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. President Trump demand's unconditional surrender 4 00:00:24,257 --> 00:00:28,937 Speaker 1: from Iran as the air campaign of US and Israeli 5 00:00:28,977 --> 00:00:33,617 Speaker 1: strikes intensifies. We are walloping them. That much is clear. 6 00:00:34,097 --> 00:00:38,097 Speaker 1: Secretary of warheg Seth has laid out that there is 7 00:00:38,217 --> 00:00:42,337 Speaker 1: first of all, no similar capability anywhere on the planet 8 00:00:42,377 --> 00:00:44,217 Speaker 1: to what the US and Israel have been able to 9 00:00:44,257 --> 00:00:46,937 Speaker 1: bring to bear. Here. We are not even losing a 10 00:00:46,977 --> 00:00:51,617 Speaker 1: single plane and destroying the entire military infrastructure of a 11 00:00:51,697 --> 00:00:54,297 Speaker 1: nation of ninety million people in a pretty big country 12 00:00:55,017 --> 00:00:58,817 Speaker 1: that had all kinds of access to Russian and Chinese 13 00:00:58,857 --> 00:01:03,017 Speaker 1: and North Korean rocketry and surface to air missiles, air 14 00:01:03,057 --> 00:01:07,857 Speaker 1: defense technology. And the Iranian regime is just being militarily 15 00:01:07,897 --> 00:01:11,657 Speaker 1: at least defanged day after day. So Trump is now 16 00:01:11,697 --> 00:01:14,977 Speaker 1: saying the Molas have to just have an unconditional surrender 17 00:01:15,217 --> 00:01:19,977 Speaker 1: and then this all stops. The big question here is 18 00:01:20,057 --> 00:01:23,217 Speaker 1: who will take over if we get to that point. Now, 19 00:01:23,377 --> 00:01:26,177 Speaker 1: this is likely to go on for weeks, This could 20 00:01:26,257 --> 00:01:30,337 Speaker 1: go on for months. That is very much still an 21 00:01:30,377 --> 00:01:33,897 Speaker 1: open question. I think, based on the pace and scale 22 00:01:34,017 --> 00:01:38,577 Speaker 1: of these strikes, the Iranian regime will cease to be 23 00:01:38,657 --> 00:01:43,097 Speaker 1: in a position to assert meaningful control over large swaths 24 00:01:43,137 --> 00:01:47,177 Speaker 1: of the country. Now, in the northwestern corner of Iran 25 00:01:47,777 --> 00:01:53,137 Speaker 1: and near Kermanshah, there's a Kurdish pocket. It's about fifteen 26 00:01:53,177 --> 00:01:56,457 Speaker 1: percent of the population of Iran is Kurdish, and they 27 00:01:56,497 --> 00:01:59,977 Speaker 1: will be able to stabilize that. And this will be 28 00:02:00,137 --> 00:02:02,057 Speaker 1: at least one area that I think we don't have 29 00:02:02,137 --> 00:02:05,377 Speaker 1: to have very much concern over, even if the government 30 00:02:05,977 --> 00:02:09,457 Speaker 1: ceases to function in a security sense in Iran, which 31 00:02:09,497 --> 00:02:11,537 Speaker 1: is what we want. But then we have to get 32 00:02:11,577 --> 00:02:15,457 Speaker 1: into the other options. What else can happen here? And 33 00:02:16,137 --> 00:02:18,777 Speaker 1: there are really a few different pathways. The one that 34 00:02:19,017 --> 00:02:23,017 Speaker 1: is most likely is some kind of coup within the 35 00:02:23,137 --> 00:02:26,817 Speaker 1: existing security forces. I'll break these down into three options. Right, 36 00:02:26,857 --> 00:02:30,337 Speaker 1: you have a coup within the existing security forces. This 37 00:02:30,497 --> 00:02:33,697 Speaker 1: is the most likely because the military's institutional power, they're 38 00:02:33,737 --> 00:02:38,177 Speaker 1: already are internal divisions, and the strikes have eliminated key leaders. 39 00:02:38,177 --> 00:02:43,617 Speaker 1: So there's a leadership vacuum that we've created within the 40 00:02:43,657 --> 00:02:47,377 Speaker 1: structure as it exists. And so the IRGC, the Islamic 41 00:02:47,377 --> 00:02:50,337 Speaker 1: Revolutionary Guard Corps or the conventional army, which they call 42 00:02:50,377 --> 00:02:53,857 Speaker 1: the Arteche could be the primary force here. You basically 43 00:02:53,897 --> 00:02:55,657 Speaker 1: have somebody from inside he goes, all right, we're going 44 00:02:55,737 --> 00:02:57,457 Speaker 1: to get rid of the bumps who have been in charge. 45 00:02:57,777 --> 00:03:01,497 Speaker 1: We're gonna stop trying to fight against America and fight 46 00:03:01,497 --> 00:03:04,577 Speaker 1: against Israel, and we're just going to say enough is enough. 47 00:03:06,697 --> 00:03:10,297 Speaker 1: This pragmatic group would have to have control over much 48 00:03:10,297 --> 00:03:14,137 Speaker 1: of the regular army, sees government buildings and media outlets 49 00:03:14,657 --> 00:03:18,097 Speaker 1: and say it's essentially a restoration of order and part 50 00:03:18,097 --> 00:03:22,457 Speaker 1: of a transition process. So that would be this is 51 00:03:22,457 --> 00:03:26,337 Speaker 1: the most likely one. This is the one that we 52 00:03:26,377 --> 00:03:29,217 Speaker 1: would like, that we would hope would happen. And the 53 00:03:29,257 --> 00:03:32,537 Speaker 1: external pressure that we're putting on the regime in Iran 54 00:03:32,937 --> 00:03:35,377 Speaker 1: is meant to bring this about, I think most likely. 55 00:03:36,257 --> 00:03:40,057 Speaker 1: And the big pitfall here rather the huge challenges you 56 00:03:40,097 --> 00:03:44,497 Speaker 1: want to avoid factional infighting that then just turns into 57 00:03:44,537 --> 00:03:47,177 Speaker 1: something more like a civil war, right different groups within 58 00:03:47,337 --> 00:03:51,497 Speaker 1: or shooting at each other and fighting over power. Another 59 00:03:51,577 --> 00:03:53,697 Speaker 1: option that people will be talking about, I think is 60 00:03:54,017 --> 00:04:00,537 Speaker 1: probably less likely, is a monarchist restoration led by Rezaplavian supporters. 61 00:04:00,937 --> 00:04:03,577 Speaker 1: So you have the exiled Crown Prince Rezapa Lavi. He 62 00:04:03,697 --> 00:04:08,937 Speaker 1: has symbolic appeal amongst the Iranian nationalists and the diaspora 63 00:04:08,977 --> 00:04:12,257 Speaker 1: community of Iran, and there are some protesters who are 64 00:04:12,257 --> 00:04:16,137 Speaker 1: also supportive. We've seen that how many. That's tougher. But 65 00:04:16,217 --> 00:04:20,297 Speaker 1: if you're looking for a pre nineteen seventy nine throwback government, 66 00:04:20,297 --> 00:04:24,177 Speaker 1: if you will, the SHAW is obviously something that you 67 00:04:24,217 --> 00:04:28,097 Speaker 1: could look to. And with these protests that have been 68 00:04:28,137 --> 00:04:29,977 Speaker 1: happening on the streets, if they were to combine with 69 00:04:30,057 --> 00:04:34,257 Speaker 1: security forces defecting to them, let's say, defecting to some 70 00:04:34,297 --> 00:04:38,417 Speaker 1: of these factions that are pro SHAW, then maybe there 71 00:04:38,457 --> 00:04:43,177 Speaker 1: could be the usage of social media and essentially a 72 00:04:43,257 --> 00:04:47,457 Speaker 1: popular uprising from the streets but also from the outside, 73 00:04:48,257 --> 00:04:51,617 Speaker 1: supported by the diasperg groups and by those who want 74 00:04:51,617 --> 00:04:53,857 Speaker 1: the Shaw and power. And the idea I think would 75 00:04:53,897 --> 00:04:57,297 Speaker 1: be he comes back as a transitional figurehead to establish 76 00:04:57,297 --> 00:05:00,577 Speaker 1: a constitutional monarchy or a secular democracy of some kind, 77 00:05:00,817 --> 00:05:02,817 Speaker 1: and there'd have to be a national referendum. You'd want 78 00:05:02,857 --> 00:05:06,137 Speaker 1: to make this look legitimate, and this would require some 79 00:05:06,217 --> 00:05:08,457 Speaker 1: international backing, but I think that would be easy for 80 00:05:08,497 --> 00:05:12,217 Speaker 1: the regional players to throw or had into And yeah, 81 00:05:12,257 --> 00:05:14,617 Speaker 1: who's going to oppose democracy and self rule for the 82 00:05:14,657 --> 00:05:21,297 Speaker 1: people of Iran. So that's another option, and uh the 83 00:05:21,297 --> 00:05:29,297 Speaker 1: then finally there's insiders like reformist clerics or IRGC commanders 84 00:05:29,857 --> 00:05:33,257 Speaker 1: who come forward and push and basically say, look, we surrender, 85 00:05:33,857 --> 00:05:37,097 Speaker 1: but we want to work with the system that we 86 00:05:37,177 --> 00:05:43,137 Speaker 1: have here with obviously negotiation steps with with the US, 87 00:05:43,137 --> 00:05:47,857 Speaker 1: with Israel, probably just with the US in the early days, 88 00:05:47,937 --> 00:05:51,977 Speaker 1: and and try to get to some form of national election. 89 00:05:52,457 --> 00:05:54,577 Speaker 1: This is I think the least likely version of it, 90 00:05:54,897 --> 00:05:58,937 Speaker 1: but it's essentially the system itself says we've taken out 91 00:05:58,937 --> 00:06:01,697 Speaker 1: all our leaders, we give up. We don't need to 92 00:06:01,737 --> 00:06:06,497 Speaker 1: storm the government palaces and everything else. We're We're willing 93 00:06:06,537 --> 00:06:09,537 Speaker 1: to play ball. It's like it's like Iran Kray's uncle 94 00:06:10,217 --> 00:06:11,817 Speaker 1: with the people who are in truck I think is 95 00:06:11,897 --> 00:06:15,857 Speaker 1: very unlikely. But if you have economic collapse and just 96 00:06:15,857 --> 00:06:19,817 Speaker 1: fatigue with all the strikes, this this could happen. So 97 00:06:20,057 --> 00:06:22,857 Speaker 1: those are some of the ways that you're certainly not 98 00:06:22,857 --> 00:06:25,377 Speaker 1: going to have some external force. I don't think you're 99 00:06:25,377 --> 00:06:27,577 Speaker 1: going to have US boots on the ground there. I 100 00:06:27,577 --> 00:06:30,617 Speaker 1: think that's a terrible idea. Maybe in a very limited 101 00:06:30,617 --> 00:06:33,097 Speaker 1: capacity like we had in Syria at some point to 102 00:06:33,177 --> 00:06:37,657 Speaker 1: sort of direct air strikes. But no, we're not going 103 00:06:37,697 --> 00:06:40,897 Speaker 1: to be policing the streets of Tehran with nineteen year 104 00:06:40,897 --> 00:06:45,937 Speaker 1: olds from from Kansas and from Maine and from Oregon. 105 00:06:46,057 --> 00:06:47,457 Speaker 1: You know, we're not going to be doing that. I 106 00:06:47,497 --> 00:06:51,937 Speaker 1: think the administration recognizes that's a disaster politically, a disaster 107 00:06:52,377 --> 00:06:56,697 Speaker 1: from a national security perspective. So this is where we 108 00:06:56,737 --> 00:06:59,457 Speaker 1: are with the're on right now, continuing air strikes and 109 00:06:59,497 --> 00:07:03,217 Speaker 1: trying to form some kind of opposition and transition the 110 00:07:03,257 --> 00:07:09,897 Speaker 1: Iranian nation state into a whole new era. It's high stakes. 111 00:07:10,097 --> 00:07:13,417 Speaker 1: Let's talk Venezuela next, and then also little Cuba do 112 00:07:13,417 --> 00:07:14,617 Speaker 1: in a bit of a deep dive in a national 113 00:07:14,617 --> 00:07:19,937 Speaker 1: security here. But gold. Look at the price of oil 114 00:07:20,017 --> 00:07:22,097 Speaker 1: and look at how instability makes that go up. You 115 00:07:22,137 --> 00:07:24,257 Speaker 1: know what also goes up when people are worried about 116 00:07:24,257 --> 00:07:26,577 Speaker 1: things gold? You know what goes up when there's money 117 00:07:26,577 --> 00:07:30,097 Speaker 1: printing gold. 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Currently, Vice President Delcia Rodriguez is the 136 00:08:21,617 --> 00:08:24,617 Speaker 1: interim vice president. She was sworn in Supreme Court of 137 00:08:24,657 --> 00:08:28,177 Speaker 1: Venezuela has backed this a lot of the Maduro cabinet 138 00:08:28,857 --> 00:08:32,097 Speaker 1: and even the ruling party there, and the US has said, look, 139 00:08:32,097 --> 00:08:35,577 Speaker 1: we're going to work with you on this, okay. So 140 00:08:36,137 --> 00:08:39,497 Speaker 1: they already have the infrastructure in place. The political infrastructure. 141 00:08:40,097 --> 00:08:45,097 Speaker 1: And now this means that some opposition figures have been 142 00:08:45,137 --> 00:08:50,857 Speaker 1: sidelined here, like Machado and Gonzales. But this is I 143 00:08:50,857 --> 00:08:53,137 Speaker 1: think the smarter play right now. They should be those 144 00:08:53,137 --> 00:08:54,977 Speaker 1: opposition figures I'm sure are going to be able to 145 00:08:55,017 --> 00:08:57,937 Speaker 1: run in the next election. But instead of throwing things 146 00:08:57,977 --> 00:09:01,337 Speaker 1: into chaos right now in Venezuela, it's let's stabilize things. 147 00:09:02,577 --> 00:09:05,777 Speaker 1: And the big news that came out this week is 148 00:09:05,817 --> 00:09:09,097 Speaker 1: the US and Venezuela have agreed to re establish full 149 00:09:09,137 --> 00:09:12,617 Speaker 1: diplomatic and common relations the first time since twenty nineteen. 150 00:09:13,097 --> 00:09:17,217 Speaker 1: And you've already had a Secretary Bergham meet with Rodriguez 151 00:09:17,217 --> 00:09:20,457 Speaker 1: in Caracas to talk about mining access and resource deals. 152 00:09:20,937 --> 00:09:23,697 Speaker 1: And Venezuela has signed agreements for gold sales to the 153 00:09:23,857 --> 00:09:28,057 Speaker 1: US oil sector, privatization reforms to get more investment, so 154 00:09:28,097 --> 00:09:31,017 Speaker 1: they realize, get the trade going, get the oil flowing, 155 00:09:31,097 --> 00:09:35,697 Speaker 1: get the money transactions happening, and everything starts to become 156 00:09:35,737 --> 00:09:38,817 Speaker 1: more possible more, you know, the future starts to look brighter. 157 00:09:39,177 --> 00:09:42,097 Speaker 1: There's also been an amnesty process that thirty two hundred 158 00:09:42,137 --> 00:09:44,617 Speaker 1: people political prisoners, a lot of them have been released 159 00:09:45,897 --> 00:09:52,537 Speaker 1: in Venezuela. So there's no immediate presidential elections plan. The 160 00:09:52,577 --> 00:09:55,617 Speaker 1: focus is really on stability right now in Venezuela. But 161 00:09:56,057 --> 00:10:00,497 Speaker 1: this is a this is moving the way you'd wanted 162 00:10:00,497 --> 00:10:04,097 Speaker 1: to move for the benefit of Venezuelan people. You know. 163 00:10:04,337 --> 00:10:09,377 Speaker 1: They we're basically just removed the bad Apple and it 164 00:10:09,377 --> 00:10:11,497 Speaker 1: doesn't look like we have to you know, we have 165 00:10:11,577 --> 00:10:14,377 Speaker 1: to do more than that. Right now, we can work 166 00:10:14,417 --> 00:10:17,417 Speaker 1: with what's there and that I think could lead us 167 00:10:17,457 --> 00:10:21,777 Speaker 1: in a very positive direction. We'll talk Cuba here in 168 00:10:21,817 --> 00:10:26,017 Speaker 1: a second, but that's also a place that's obviously getting 169 00:10:26,017 --> 00:10:30,017 Speaker 1: a lot of attention from the administration. All right, look, 170 00:10:30,057 --> 00:10:32,177 Speaker 1: switch to pure talk. It just makes sense. Time to 171 00:10:32,217 --> 00:10:35,017 Speaker 1: save some money, time to align yourself on company with 172 00:10:35,057 --> 00:10:37,297 Speaker 1: your values, and that's what switching to pure Talk lets 173 00:10:37,337 --> 00:10:41,897 Speaker 1: you do. And pure Talk is my wireless company. 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That's puretalk dot com slash Buck 182 00:11:03,497 --> 00:11:06,417 Speaker 1: and switch to a wireless company that shares your values. 183 00:11:06,497 --> 00:11:11,897 Speaker 1: Puretalk America's wireless company. And now we have a Cuba 184 00:11:12,777 --> 00:11:15,537 Speaker 1: which is in the midst of a US fuel blockade, 185 00:11:16,097 --> 00:11:18,817 Speaker 1: so no more oil imports from Venezuela to prop them up, 186 00:11:18,857 --> 00:11:22,457 Speaker 1: no more commis helping Commis with that stuff. And Mexico 187 00:11:22,537 --> 00:11:25,617 Speaker 1: is getting US pressure to stop the supplying Cuba with oil. 188 00:11:25,897 --> 00:11:29,537 Speaker 1: So they have huge fuel shortages, blackouts rolling up to 189 00:11:29,577 --> 00:11:33,017 Speaker 1: twenty hours a day in some places, canceled flights, and 190 00:11:33,057 --> 00:11:36,537 Speaker 1: tourism services paralyzed. Me Cuba is a just in a 191 00:11:36,577 --> 00:11:39,497 Speaker 1: really rough state right now. They've had all kinds of 192 00:11:39,497 --> 00:11:43,257 Speaker 1: shortages of food and medicine. Inflation is rampant. GDP is 193 00:11:43,297 --> 00:11:46,737 Speaker 1: contracting dramatically, and Trump has said that the regime is 194 00:11:46,777 --> 00:11:50,937 Speaker 1: going to fall soon, and Secretary of State Rubio has 195 00:11:50,977 --> 00:11:52,657 Speaker 1: even said, you know, maybe we need to do some 196 00:11:52,737 --> 00:11:56,377 Speaker 1: kind of a quote friendly takeover. So US officials are 197 00:11:56,377 --> 00:12:00,017 Speaker 1: thinking about criminal charges against Cuban leaders, so they want 198 00:12:00,017 --> 00:12:05,337 Speaker 1: regime change this year in Cuba. And this is this 199 00:12:05,457 --> 00:12:10,017 Speaker 1: is great to see if it happens. The Cuban regime 200 00:12:10,297 --> 00:12:13,017 Speaker 1: is disgusting and despotic and has ruined what is otherwise 201 00:12:13,017 --> 00:12:16,857 Speaker 1: a beautiful country with wonderful people. So another place here 202 00:12:16,897 --> 00:12:19,097 Speaker 1: where Trump is playing a high stakes game, but I 203 00:12:19,137 --> 00:12:22,417 Speaker 1: think so far it's playing it very well. We could 204 00:12:22,497 --> 00:12:26,577 Speaker 1: have a different, a different government in twenty twenty six 205 00:12:26,657 --> 00:12:28,577 Speaker 1: than we had in twenty twenty five, and a much 206 00:12:28,657 --> 00:12:32,297 Speaker 1: better one aligned with global norms and America and not 207 00:12:32,417 --> 00:12:34,817 Speaker 1: American values per se, but just sort of more normal 208 00:12:35,097 --> 00:12:40,257 Speaker 1: civilizational values, rule of law values in Iran, in Venezuela, 209 00:12:40,337 --> 00:12:45,497 Speaker 1: and in Cuba, which would be an incredible transformation of 210 00:12:45,537 --> 00:12:52,017 Speaker 1: the global national security situation. Have effects on China, have 211 00:12:52,017 --> 00:12:57,217 Speaker 1: effects on Russia, have effects on all these other all 212 00:12:57,217 --> 00:12:59,777 Speaker 1: these other national security challenges that we have. So it 213 00:12:59,817 --> 00:13:03,457 Speaker 1: could be great. Hopefully it'll be great. And that is 214 00:13:03,497 --> 00:13:05,977 Speaker 1: our deep dive national security brief. Talk to you soon, 215 00:13:06,057 --> 00:13:06,657 Speaker 1: Shield time.