1 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,560 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network. 2 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman and I am going to be 3 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:21,279 Speaker 1: joined by Professional Better Simon Hunter. My companion might be 4 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: at that. Really, he'd become a very good friend over 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:29,639 Speaker 1: the past few months. Uh, folks, the world nearly nearly 6 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: spun completely off its access this past weekend. It sent 7 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:37,400 Speaker 1: us into a tilt. Simon, you'll remember this. It sent 8 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:41,160 Speaker 1: us into it till that forced Professional Better Simon Hunter 9 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,840 Speaker 1: to go to bed very early on Saturday night. That's 10 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 1: what he texted me, and it forced me to text 11 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: Simon one word on Sunday afternoon, disgusting. My friend, Simon, 12 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 1: do you know what I'm talking about? Can you recall 13 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 1: the very two specific instances that I'm talking about. I 14 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 1: don't remember the first of all. I know the second 15 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:04,039 Speaker 1: one is definitely about the Chiefs one because we're both 16 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: just like, like that was the nineteen to three we're 17 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 1: both cruising, and then when he went down. I think 18 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 1: that's when you texting disgusting. I was just like, that's 19 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: that's football, man, It's it's a dirty sport. Dudes get hurt. Yeah, 20 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:18,960 Speaker 1: Like that Chiefs game, you know, was definitely frustrating because 21 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,960 Speaker 1: we were loving the Chiefs at minus ten and then 22 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: the game started moving in the opposite direction. And I 23 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 1: do want to talk about that. I want to remind 24 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 1: everybody that we made five picks uh and that Simon Hunter, 25 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: the professional Better has jow me on the podcast every 26 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: single week all season long. We made five picks in 27 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 1: the DraftKings Pro Football pick Up National Championship. We came 28 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: in overall, we pocketed uh. But we are still making 29 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: bets five picks every week. We did it last weekend. 30 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: We will break that down in more detail. First reminder, 31 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: and I will announce the winner at the end of 32 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 1: this show, but we are bring back the cash field 33 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 1: phrase that pays contest lucky listener gets dollars for every 34 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: game we win each week, and we are giving an 35 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: equal amount to the charity of the winner's choice. Last 36 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: week's winner donated all of their winnings to the Juvenile 37 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 1: Diabetes Foundation JDF. I'm gonna tweet about that. I want 38 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 1: people to check it out to be eligible. Go follow 39 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: at the Favorites pod and then tag us using the 40 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: phrase Simon says, stand back up. Simon says stand back up. 41 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 1: Tag at the Favorites pod. Follow the favorite pot, Matt 42 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: Mitchell will sift through the submissions and randomly choose it. 43 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: You will win the money. Everything we discuss, every pick, 44 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: we make, all the data. It's in the Action Network app. 45 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: It's free, it's award winning. Go download it. I'll remind everybody. Simon. 46 00:02:52,520 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 1: Last week, we chose Rams packers under. We chose Ravens 47 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 1: bills under Bills minus one in the first half, Chiefs 48 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 1: minus eight, bucks plus three, three and a half whatever 49 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:17,080 Speaker 1: it was. We went two and three. It was the 50 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: bills minus one in the first half. That Actually, when 51 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 1: I texted you that, I said, is it too much 52 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:27,359 Speaker 1: to ask that? Justin Tucker missed his third field goal 53 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 1: in the phone. Yeah yeah, And uh that was on me. 54 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 1: I should have just stuck it to and just said no, 55 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 1: I love the bills here because it was funny last week. Um, 56 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 1: speaking of trolls, I had some some dude on Twitter 57 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 1: I blocked, but I saw Matt Mitchell replied to him 58 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 1: wherever he did on the favorites thing. It was like 59 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: a thread of like ten messages on Twitter, but they're 60 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 1: all blocked to me, so I clicked on. It was 61 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 1: this dude who I blocked eber Go and he's like says, 62 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 1: he's a die hard fan of the show. I'm not 63 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 1: gonna say his name because I'm not gonna give him 64 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 1: that recognition. He didn't believe me that I cashed out, 65 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 1: like I would lie, uh lie on this show to 66 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 1: impress the fans about four thousand, two hundred dollars. So 67 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 1: I had I sent a picture of the check to 68 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 1: the kid just to shut him up. It was just like, 69 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: are you kidding me? Right now? Yeah, I made up 70 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 1: that I cashed out, But yeah, that was tough, man. 71 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 1: We went two and three. Uh well, me and man Mitchell, 72 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 1: you left the show to go and make a conference 73 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 1: called to thirty, which is a staple of Chad just 74 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 1: anytime Chad has to do something like he's like, yeah, 75 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: I gotta go make a call. There's no call, Chad. 76 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:33,040 Speaker 1: You just you just don't want to get off by 77 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:37,840 Speaker 1: the way. By the way. Throughout my life, I am 78 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:40,920 Speaker 1: known in the middle of any conversation to be like 79 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 1: I gotta go. Yeah, yeah, right, you got other things 80 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:47,159 Speaker 1: going on. So me and both laughed at you for 81 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 1: about ten minutes about how stupid you were for like 82 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:53,360 Speaker 1: in the Ravens last week, and I basically said to him, 83 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: I'm loading up on the Bill, especially the fact that 84 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:57,559 Speaker 1: you said you loved the Ravens. I said, we're loading 85 00:04:57,640 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 1: up on it. So that was pretty hilarious when it 86 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 1: him through, and I was just like, this man is 87 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 1: so cursed, but oh my god, because the Ravens, the 88 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 1: Ravens so had so many chances to win that game. 89 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 1: But I did feel like the Bills in the first half, 90 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: and you could have overruled me. The Bills in the 91 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 1: first half of it up obviously being the right side, 92 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:18,279 Speaker 1: but we ended up taking the under. We could agree 93 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 1: on the under. And by the way, you and Matt 94 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 1: Mitchell might have been the only sort of informed slash 95 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:28,160 Speaker 1: professional betters who did like the Bills. Almost everybody else 96 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,599 Speaker 1: except for Matthew Friedman, who uh, you know, tried to 97 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,040 Speaker 1: convince me on our show on Sunday mornings on at 98 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 1: Action Network HQ before the games that I should be 99 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 1: taking the Bills because everybody else from a professional perspective 100 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:43,839 Speaker 1: seemed to be on the Ravens. And that was the 101 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 1: same reason I hated Cleveland. It was just like it 102 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 1: just felt like not fake sharp numbers, but It just 103 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 1: felt like the kind of game where like professionals be like, oh, 104 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 1: you're getting a great line here were you're really not, 105 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 1: like you're falling into the trap of the book was laying. 106 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 1: But that Bills one was one of those where that 107 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 1: wind um. I was scared in that first half because 108 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 1: every time the Bills playing offense where they do dink 109 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 1: and dunk a little bit, but they want to take 110 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 1: deep shots that they like to get long touchdowns, and 111 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:15,839 Speaker 1: you saw every time Allen went deep it was like 112 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 1: ten yards overthrown or whatever. It was just because the 113 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: wind was just taking the ball. Everything lined up perfect 114 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 1: for a Lamar to win that game, and he still 115 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:28,039 Speaker 1: couldn't do it. So Ravens fan is gonna be scared 116 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: because they know the window here is maybe four more 117 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 1: years of what he can do, Like he can't keep 118 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 1: urning around forever and he has to develop accuracy and 119 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 1: that game, it's crazy, it didn't work out for him. 120 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 1: I know, our poor friends stuck. He lost a ton 121 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 1: of money on the Ravens second half. I just took 122 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 1: the Bills the second half because I thought to myself, 123 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:52,279 Speaker 1: they couldn't They can't play any worse like this, Bills team. 124 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: They should have been down, like you said, nine six 125 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 1: or nine three at half. Both kickers were miss some 126 00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: field goals because of the wind, and that when he 127 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 1: drove that field and that picks six. Man, I mean, 128 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 1: I can't imagine what the Richter scale was in Buffalo, 129 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:09,479 Speaker 1: but like, that's one of those moments where like Bills 130 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 1: fans haven't had a moment like that what years. So 131 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 1: it was like I felt that was him because obviously 132 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: had bet on it. We have these futures, but I 133 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: was just like, oh my god, that's that's one of 134 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:20,520 Speaker 1: those like you tell your grandkids about if they make 135 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 1: our run here, Like the Eagles had an interception against 136 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 1: the Vikings and Patrick Brompson basically took it back for 137 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 1: a pick six and that's what helped us go to 138 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Like that guy can will never pay 139 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: for a drink and Philip it's one of those where 140 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 1: like the guy just made a legacy. He can do 141 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: nothing the rest of his career, but Buffalo will remember 142 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: that pick six. So it's pretty pretty legendary weekend. I 143 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: know people can play about the games, but I thought 144 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 1: they were good games. For the most part. I thought 145 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 1: they were outstanding. Can we go back to something for 146 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 1: a second. You guys stuck around and laughed at me 147 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 1: for ten minutes, five minutes, But yeah, I mean it 148 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 1: couldn't it could have been. But yeah, we were just 149 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 1: laughing the fact that you were like, I don't know 150 00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 1: everything I said. You just poop pooty. You're like, no, 151 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 1: I like the raging Ravens with its side. So it 152 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 1: was just funny because he's a dire Bills fan. But 153 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:05,559 Speaker 1: I won't let him off the hook. I am bitter. 154 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,480 Speaker 1: We should be sitting right now on an investment of 155 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 1: that four thousand, two hundred for a ticket that would 156 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 1: have been seven thousand, seven hundred fifty if we had 157 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 1: just played the Bills for the super Bowl. It's a 158 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 1: little heartbreaker right now. I told you I'm not the 159 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: one that makes the content for the show, but that 160 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: would have been amazing content for the show if he 161 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 1: had just done that. Futures man, I don't even remember 162 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 1: that conversation. Are you saying that I vetoed taking there 163 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 1: and just putting it all in a future even worse, 164 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 1: even worse? Matt Mitchell, the Bills fan, did he said 165 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: he wanted the money. I know, Oh yeah, I know, 166 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, jump on the pod and explain yourself. I'm 167 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 1: not one to hedge. I don't care for hedging because 168 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 1: it's cowardly and goes against everything I stand for. US 169 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 1: degenerate would not be able to survive. Bills haven't one 170 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: goddamn Super Bowl yet. There's no way I would have 171 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:00,319 Speaker 1: survived a hail Mary at the end of the Cults 172 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: game that Ravens second half and which is about to 173 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 1: be tied before the Bills ran it back for a 174 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 1: hundred and one yards, and then two additional games, each 175 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 1: one harder than the one before. So I don't feel 176 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 1: a whole lot of regret, yet it would have been 177 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 1: gut ranging because I'll be honest, and maybe this makes 178 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:17,679 Speaker 1: me a bad person, but no, even knowing we had 179 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 1: the future tickets on the Bills, still I wanted to 180 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 1: be right so bad about the Ravens that I was rooting. 181 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 1: Was rooting so hard for the Ravens in the second 182 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 1: half because I did not want the grief about you 183 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 1: saying I told you so about the Buffalo Bills, and 184 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: and by the way, you doing the one tweet that 185 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 1: hurts my feelings the most, which is cursed. Well happy 186 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 1: that one fan he said, Shy, load up on the bills, 187 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,679 Speaker 1: and I said, the man is cursed. But no, I 188 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,079 Speaker 1: try to get this through people's heads. It doesn't matter 189 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 1: if you have a hundred dollar bet on the bills 190 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 1: or four thousand. The sweat is exactly the same. So 191 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 1: like Matt Mitchell, throw that out, buddy, we we should 192 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: have done it. And but we'll talk today about all 193 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: the hedge and I did um Sunday night. But it 194 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 1: just would have been legendary if we had that bet. 195 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 1: So right now what we have as a little group 196 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:12,199 Speaker 1: is we have the bills in the Green Bay both 197 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 1: to win and make the Super Bowl thirteen to one. 198 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 1: So it's like a hundred bucks. Well it's like a thousand, 199 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: three hundred. So we saw that going in our bills feature. 200 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: But yeah, that that would have been insane. Um because 201 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: right now I gave it. I don't know if you 202 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 1: guys rerumb this either. I gave out the bills right 203 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:33,679 Speaker 1: after the Cardinals lost that hell, Mary, and I just 204 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 1: said that I liked I thought that the way they play, 205 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 1: I could see them being able to take it to 206 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:39,840 Speaker 1: the Chiefs like they would have a good matchup with 207 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 1: the Chiefs if they could make it. So I played 208 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: that at fifteen to one and then thirteen to one. 209 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 1: So I do have a couple a couple of futures 210 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 1: here on the bills. That's what we'll talk about about 211 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,320 Speaker 1: the hedging. But yeah, we're we're all in right now. 212 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 1: Is Bill's mafia? You know what I mean? The bills, 213 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 1: hands up and throw your head back. Now the bills, 214 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 1: I'm making it happen. Now, stand up, not com on. 215 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,199 Speaker 1: I am all in. And look, if Patrick Mahomes is playing, 216 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 1: if he's not playing, two totally different things. We're going 217 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 1: to talk about that. By the way, you can track 218 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: all the up to date information Action Network dot com. 219 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 1: We've got a Patrick Mahomes tracker going literally every single 220 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 1: thing said about my homes and the speculation. We are 221 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 1: keeping a file on it just so everyone is aware 222 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: of because it does have massive, massive implications on the 223 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 1: betting markets. It was super exciting. Sunday night we did 224 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 1: a show. Action Network. Simon tried to get on but 225 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: he was having technical issues. It was me, it was Stucky, 226 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:46,680 Speaker 1: it was Chris Raybon, Matthew Freedman, Shawn Corner, and um 227 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:50,559 Speaker 1: we were looking at the lines as they opened instant 228 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 1: reacts for the conference title games, and we're gonna we'll 229 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:55,960 Speaker 1: get to the Chiefs bills in a second. That game 230 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 1: opened at Bills minus one, then it moved up to 231 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 1: two Chiefs minus two and a half. The total was 232 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 1: fifty five while we were on the show. I assume 233 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: it was us moving lines because who else could it be, 234 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 1: because we are that good. Uh. We were saying, if 235 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:10,439 Speaker 1: you want the Chiefs, take the Chiefs right now. The 236 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: Chiefs moved up to three and a half. We were saying, 237 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 1: if you like the total, take the under right now, 238 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:16,719 Speaker 1: and it went down to fifty four. So Simon will 239 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:19,320 Speaker 1: certainly get into all that and the repercussions. But that's 240 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:23,080 Speaker 1: going to be the marquee matchup, which is crazy, which 241 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 1: is saying something considering we've got Tom Brady as a 242 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 1: what is he right now? A three and a half 243 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:34,600 Speaker 1: point dog on the road at Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers. 244 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 1: The total is fifty one. Wowser your give me your 245 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 1: first instinct. You you saw this line get posted posted 246 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 1: I think at four immediately got that down. Give me 247 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 1: your take your first reaction on this game, first instinct? Uh, 248 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: pound green Bay. I was just how because I just 249 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 1: knew the public is gonna love the Brady story and 250 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 1: the fact that they're a dog. I thought the value 251 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: was good at four and four and three and a half, 252 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,959 Speaker 1: but now that it's down to three, you're kind of, well, 253 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 1: you're kind of losing here with the Bucks. But if 254 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 1: you dive into the numbers, the Bucks are the right 255 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 1: play here. The I think statistically, teams that get blown 256 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 1: out by a team and then they play them again 257 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,679 Speaker 1: in the playoffs, it really doesn't fare well for that team. 258 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,959 Speaker 1: So that Buccaneers game, in the Green Bay game, I 259 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: watched that game twice. Um, I watched it yesterday, I 260 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 1: watched again this morning, and I really think there's there's 261 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:33,599 Speaker 1: things you can take away from their first matchup, but 262 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 1: a lot of things you can't. It's just a snowball 263 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 1: game where they go up to nothing I think Green Bay, 264 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:42,840 Speaker 1: and then it just all went the Buccaneers way. I 265 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 1: think Rogers through two picks. They had a couple of fumbles. 266 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 1: Brady was just on target every time he's throwing deep. 267 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 1: My I think my initial gut here was to take 268 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 1: Green Base because it's the cold man like, uh, we'll 269 00:13:57,559 --> 00:13:59,679 Speaker 1: talk about tolls and things like that, but this is 270 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 1: a week where both these cities you have to wait 271 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:04,840 Speaker 1: on these totals because Kansas City can get a blizzard 272 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 1: in a day. We know the deal with Green Bay. 273 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,559 Speaker 1: It's called the frozen Tundra. It could be twenty degrees 274 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 1: there for all we know when this game kicks off, 275 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 1: and all these things predicate to Green Bay. In the 276 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 1: under Green Bay, we know their defense can make stops. 277 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 1: Where I talked last week, this New Orleans defense, they 278 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 1: really can't. They really couldn't make stops. We knew the 279 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 1: Bucks were gonna put up points where we've seen a 280 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 1: playout here with Green Bay. They have a defense that 281 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 1: can make big plays, and it's gonna be such an 282 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 1: interesting matchup where exactly what you said, I know everyone's 283 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: looking at the Chiefs and Bill's game is the marquee matchup. 284 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 1: I just love this game more because these are two 285 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 1: quarterbacks that've been in our lives now for going on 286 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 1: twenty years of Brady and going on fifteen years with Rogers. 287 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 1: So it's just one of these relationships where it's like 288 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 1: it was painful watching Breeze in that game because we 289 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 1: all know what Breeze is Breeze is a Hall First 290 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 1: Ball Hall of Famer guy can't miss. I mean he 291 00:14:57,880 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: is one of the best arms ever in the lead 292 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 1: and you just saw his age catch up to him 293 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 1: in that game. He could not get the ball ten 294 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 1: yards down field. And we're looking at Brady who was 295 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 1: reversed age. He's Benjamin Button. And I think I just 296 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: have to play the numbers and trust that an old 297 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 1: QB going from Florida playing green Bay, how do you 298 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 1: not take green Bay at three? The numbers now the 299 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 1: number is the value is on green Bay because I 300 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 1: had this number at three, so three and a half, 301 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 1: I'd be sitting here telling people to take the Buccaneers. 302 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 1: So I know it sounds kind of stupid, but you're 303 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 1: just playing the value number. The same reason last week 304 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: we talked late Sunday night and you said, are you 305 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 1: taking the Buccaneers here? Just value of something you saw? 306 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 1: And I said, it's just pure value, like you can't 307 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 1: get all to my data in and just one night 308 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 1: right after the games, it was just pure value. Play 309 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 1: the Buccaneers are plus four against the Saints. Said that 310 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 1: number should have been three, and then the late movement 311 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 1: in that game was all about Tysom Hill Murray being out. 312 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 1: That's why that number dropped, because that is you can 313 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 1: say what you want about Hill Tysom Hill for uh, 314 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: the Saints. That guy every time he runs it, he 315 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: gets like seven yards at a time. He was a 316 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 1: big player for the same thing you saw that really 317 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 1: hurt them in that game where they couldn't put the 318 00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 1: game away. They're up and they couldn't put the game away. 319 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 1: So this is another game where I think it's gonna 320 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: settle now three, just like this Bills and Chiefs game 321 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: has when fluctuating from three to two and a half. 322 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: It's just one of those are the books are just 323 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 1: taking feelers because the most you can bet right now 324 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 1: these books is a grand like. They're not taking big bets. 325 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 1: They're just putting out letting people put out feelers and 326 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: just seeing how they can move the number to get 327 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 1: the most action. Alright, a couple of things. Number one, 328 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 1: I forgot when we transition to the games to mention 329 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: that we still have to do the big balls better. 330 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 1: The week we got to do our foxhole bet, which 331 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 1: is a bet that like everybody in the world hates 332 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: except for us, and we gotta get into the Hornets Nest. 333 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: You and I companions in the Hornets Nest unattractive bet. UM, 334 00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: last week our big balls better the week with Chiefs 335 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: might as ten. We still better chief mineus it didn't 336 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 1: work out for us? Who who also um at the 337 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:07,919 Speaker 1: end of this segment. UH. People should send their questions. 338 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 1: They can send them to directly to me at Chad 339 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 1: Moment on Twitter, send him directly to Simon at Simon 340 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,920 Speaker 1: Hunter tan on Twitter, send him to at the Favorites pod. 341 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 1: UM if you have questions, because we have a couple 342 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,880 Speaker 1: of weeks before the super Bowl after this, Simon will 343 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 1: answer any of them. I will answer to any of them. 344 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 1: Think of it as an A M A podcast version 345 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 1: because UM, I get questions all the time, and I'm 346 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 1: gonna ask one of Simon at the end of the 347 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:38,359 Speaker 1: show just about being a professional better and sort of 348 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:41,800 Speaker 1: that lifestyle. So please send them in UM. You can 349 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 1: also email Matt dot Mitchell at Action Network dot com 350 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 1: UM as well, UH with whatever question you have and 351 00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:52,119 Speaker 1: will answer as many as we get, or will answer 352 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 1: four or five, will answer two, whatever it is. Do 353 00:17:55,080 --> 00:18:00,880 Speaker 1: we feel like the packers bet at minus three because 354 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 1: I want to be very clear about before I ask 355 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 1: that question. When we started this conversation, it sounded like 356 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 1: you were going to be on the Bucks. Sounded like 357 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,199 Speaker 1: you love the Packers emotionally, you want to be on 358 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 1: the Bucks because of the number. And then you sort 359 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 1: of walked us through that the Bucks were the right 360 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 1: side of four and three and a half. Now, if 361 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,920 Speaker 1: it's Packers minus three, you're gonna be in the Packers. 362 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:23,200 Speaker 1: That's clear. Is this a Big Balls better the week? 363 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 1: Is this a hornet's nest? Is this a foxhole bet? 364 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 1: That none of them feel like they apply to this bet? 365 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 1: And before you answer that anyone that's d having me, 366 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 1: I'm not checking any d m s until after the 367 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:37,720 Speaker 1: super Bowl. I apologize. I just can't do it. I answered, like, 368 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 1: five thousand d m s right before Christmas is a 369 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 1: Christmas gift. I just can't do it. Man, it's too much. 370 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 1: It's too much. Uh, it's too much like pressure questions 371 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 1: like people are like asking me like serious stuff about 372 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 1: like what to do with their money and different things 373 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 1: like that. I can't answer that stuff, man, Like I 374 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 1: don't want to tell you what to do with your money. Uh. Yeah, 375 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 1: getting back the Big Balls better the week. By the way, 376 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 1: who are you fucking Lebron James? Like I don't, I don't. 377 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 1: I don't check d ms during the playoffs. That's what's 378 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,119 Speaker 1: the one I do. I'll screen shout of text photo 379 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:11,160 Speaker 1: of my text lens chat. I got a thousand unread, 380 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,440 Speaker 1: unread text messages, bro, that's how I am. I just 381 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 1: like I'll try to be nice and get the people 382 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 1: like I am humble. But it's like too much, bro, 383 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: It's way way too many questions. Especially when if I 384 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 1: answer a person a question, they hit me with another 385 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:27,159 Speaker 1: two paragraphs What am I doing here, buddy? Like I 386 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 1: don't have all the answers, but yeah, yeah, I'm kidding 387 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 1: with you. Simon Hunter, professional coward. But I will get 388 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 1: to him the off season like that, I promise, Like 389 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 1: I'll have a ton of downtime, Like I do. Want 390 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 1: to help people, and people have questions about how to 391 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 1: build their system. I'm here to help, man, because that's 392 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: my whole goal of this show is just to make 393 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:47,360 Speaker 1: the public better, smarter. And I want to come off 394 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 1: as like now that I have whatever it is, seven 395 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 1: thousand followers, I'm too big. But like that's nothing, like 396 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,399 Speaker 1: that's that's little droplets in the ocean. But I just 397 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: want people to know that it's just too it's too 398 00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,400 Speaker 1: much for just a normal person to try to get 399 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 1: back to all of it at once. But I do. 400 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 1: I do try to get back to people and give 401 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:06,199 Speaker 1: advice either even if they're giving being terribly mean to 402 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,679 Speaker 1: me or you. I still reply to him just because 403 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 1: I don't care. I really don't. But it's, uh, it's 404 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 1: this is this week's gonna be tough with our three picks. 405 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess we can do big balls better 406 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 1: the week here in Green Bay because it doesn't feel 407 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 1: like it takes big balls, but like you're gonna feel 408 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 1: comfortable taking the points with Brady. Like that's what felt 409 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 1: so nice last week because we had the points with Brady. 410 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 1: Like I never really I was worried about the three 411 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:35,160 Speaker 1: and a half or the three whatever number you got, um. 412 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: But I just feel the same way about Green Bay. 413 00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 1: It's like Aaron Rodgers at home minus three. He's owing 414 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:46,160 Speaker 1: three in his last three trips to the NFC Championship game. 415 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 1: It just feels like he's do and it feels like 416 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,119 Speaker 1: the Buccaneers are a year away. Like this is like 417 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 1: the kind of thing with Green Bay. Last year they 418 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 1: went to the forty nine and they got smacked around, 419 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,200 Speaker 1: and now look at them this year they're hosting the game. 420 00:20:58,520 --> 00:20:59,959 Speaker 1: I feel like that will be the Bucks next year. 421 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,160 Speaker 1: I have another year of Brady getting into the group 422 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,959 Speaker 1: with his teammates and everything like that, and I just 423 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,439 Speaker 1: think this isn't the year for them. So I do 424 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 1: have a huge futures on the Buccaneers, and obviously, like 425 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,120 Speaker 1: I'm I hedge that, but just what I'm gonna bet 426 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 1: this week, I'm gonna be taking Green Bay minus three. 427 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,679 Speaker 1: I love the box as much as I love the 428 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 1: ratings last week, but I can't but I get what 429 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,199 Speaker 1: you're saying, and I like them at four. I like 430 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:33,160 Speaker 1: them at three and a half. Three I lose. I lose. 431 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:36,439 Speaker 1: I lose a little bit of my nerve. Yeah, I mean, 432 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,879 Speaker 1: I will get into it with the Bills Chiefs, but 433 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,679 Speaker 1: this is just a different situation where both teams are healthy. 434 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: I mean, I know Antonio Brown might be out for 435 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: the Buccaneers, which is something to keep your eye on. 436 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 1: But this is one of those man if if if 437 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,920 Speaker 1: we take the three now and it turns out there's 438 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 1: gonna be a blizzard on a Sunday. This line is 439 00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 1: gonna go up because I just don't think the Buccaneers 440 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 1: are built the playing weather like that, where green Bay 441 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 1: their offensive scheme is based around the run. They have 442 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 1: a three headed monster in the running back. So I 443 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,439 Speaker 1: just everything is skewing right now towards green Bay. So 444 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,640 Speaker 1: here as we sit on Tuesday, I love green Bay. 445 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 1: I love green Bay bomb bomb. It's like a little 446 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 1: Randy Newman, little Randy Newman for you. What about the 447 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 1: total totals at yeah, fifty and a half fifty one? Uh. 448 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,640 Speaker 1: When I opened and I was on the over right 449 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 1: there because I just got feeling was these are two 450 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,920 Speaker 1: high powered offenses that can score. But then I checked, 451 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,480 Speaker 1: like the weather report, and I've checked it again today 452 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,360 Speaker 1: and it's just supposed to be really cold and there's 453 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 1: a chance of snow, so we might be the same situation. 454 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 1: I know it's totally different quarterbacks who are way better 455 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:52,680 Speaker 1: obviously than Josh and Lamore Miller, uh Lamar Jackson, but 456 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:54,680 Speaker 1: it just feels like it could be one of these 457 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 1: games where if it's windy, it's cold, its excused towards 458 00:22:57,640 --> 00:22:59,400 Speaker 1: the under. So I would tell people to hold off 459 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 1: on betting the total because if it drops the lows 460 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,639 Speaker 1: it's gonna go is forty. I can't see it getting 461 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 1: below that with the books because I'd be too much 462 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 1: of the middle for them to handle. So I think 463 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 1: you're you're fine just waiting here. I wouldn't take it, 464 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,880 Speaker 1: but I do lean the over all. Right, let's get 465 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,679 Speaker 1: to the next game, because I guess we're deciding that 466 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 1: that the Packers minus three is our big balls better 467 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:25,360 Speaker 1: the week in the face of overwhelming, uh public sentiment. 468 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,000 Speaker 1: Let me put on my glasses here and check. I'm 469 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 1: looking at the app right now. Of the bets and 470 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 1: six of the money are on Green Bay. So simon, 471 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:37,920 Speaker 1: this isn't a big ball's bet because we're betting with 472 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,159 Speaker 1: the money and the public. Yeah, I mean, who's to 473 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,440 Speaker 1: say that's not our sharp money? So I get you're 474 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 1: saying it's it's not big balls. So you can make 475 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 1: a fox if it makes you feel better. Actually, this 476 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,119 Speaker 1: is a hornet's nest, you know why, because it is 477 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 1: an impossible game to understand. I'm walking to a fucking 478 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:58,119 Speaker 1: hornets nest. All right, now'll be my companion Because of 479 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,479 Speaker 1: everything you said, Tom Brady in the call doesn't worry me. 480 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 1: Box have a great defense. Packers defense isn't as good. 481 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 1: You're ultimately betting on Aaron Rodgers in this game. If 482 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:09,679 Speaker 1: you decide you like the Packers, you're only betting on 483 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,679 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. And that's a hornessness, man. It is a 484 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: hornetsness to walk in and be betting on one player. 485 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 1: And that's what I'm trying to get into people in 486 00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 1: the playoffs. Like I had my my huge edges during 487 00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 1: the regular season, I'm trying That's how I've been trying 488 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,720 Speaker 1: to break down to people. Playoffs is true luck, it's 489 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 1: it's a really small sample where weird things are gonna 490 00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,680 Speaker 1: happen all these games. Did anyone see a seventeen thirteen, 491 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 1: seventeen to three final and that Bills Ravens game. No 492 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:39,520 Speaker 1: one saw that coming day when ce uh the Chiefs 493 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 1: being up big and then my home's getting knocked out 494 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 1: and a real sweat there. I mean, Henny, I don't 495 00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 1: want to tell you how much money I had on like, 496 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,360 Speaker 1: because I told you I do these money line parladies. 497 00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 1: I had so much money tied into the Chiefs money 498 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 1: line because I just said, there's no way they're losing 499 00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 1: their brands in that game, and oh man, like that 500 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:01,120 Speaker 1: panic to grab the plus eight plus nine of Cleveland. 501 00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 1: When My Homes went down, it was like the fear 502 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,280 Speaker 1: of all fears and like it's just I was just 503 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 1: I'm out, I'm getting out of the bet. And luckily 504 00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 1: the middle hit like the finish at five. So all 505 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 1: your teasers, anything you did with the Chiefs, their money lines, 506 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,640 Speaker 1: everything came through. And if you took the plus nine 507 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 1: of Cleveland came through. So I don't know how the 508 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 1: books did, but I bet by professionals they got slowed, 509 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: especially the online like in New Jersey we have like 510 00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,159 Speaker 1: twenty five online books. It's just it's just such a 511 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,200 Speaker 1: huge advantage. Where I saw there was a tweet um 512 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 1: it might have been bet MGM that their volume pregame 513 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 1: was lower than it was at the instant My Homes 514 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,120 Speaker 1: went down. They took more bets live than they did 515 00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,640 Speaker 1: before the game started. So that that's like really interesting 516 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,399 Speaker 1: aspect of this is that people are just sitting their 517 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 1: couch and they see My Homes go down, they just 518 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 1: fired twenty away on the grounds and it worked out 519 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:52,920 Speaker 1: for them. So it was one of those the books 520 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:54,720 Speaker 1: got called quick because I know they moved the line 521 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:56,679 Speaker 1: down to six. They moved down to seven, but it 522 00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 1: didn't like we said, it ended at five. So it 523 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:00,960 Speaker 1: was definitely an interest team week with that. And that's 524 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,880 Speaker 1: another one of those where I know it's it's it's 525 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 1: weird to do, but you just have to really trust 526 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,199 Speaker 1: your gut here in the playoffs because I have an 527 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 1: advantage of course, I have a system that's giving me 528 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 1: good data that I trust. Well, there's just so much 529 00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 1: unknown and weirdness and just a one game winner take 530 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 1: all kind of things. So yeah, we we talked about 531 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 1: we love Green Bay. Anyone out there that likes the 532 00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 1: Bucks you want to keep ryding the time Brady train. 533 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,120 Speaker 1: There are millions of numbers that are going to back 534 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,479 Speaker 1: up that feeling for you, Like the trends are all pointing, 535 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:37,480 Speaker 1: pointing towards the Buccaneers. So again we're we're making our 536 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 1: our point. It's nest bet, but it's it's definitely of 537 00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,440 Speaker 1: those We're gonna have other companions with this chat, but 538 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:44,680 Speaker 1: it's gonna be one of those are You're just gonna 539 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,680 Speaker 1: have people on both sides all week. It's just gonna 540 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:48,960 Speaker 1: be split right down the middle. Totally true. All right, 541 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:50,960 Speaker 1: let's talk about this Bill Chiefs game for a second. 542 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 1: As you as you look at this as a professional better, 543 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 1: how do you contemplate when a player like Patrick Mahomes 544 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,119 Speaker 1: and his his status is uncertain. How do you thread 545 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 1: that needle between getting the best of the number and 546 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: getting the market, getting an edge on the market. So 547 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 1: Chad wants clicks for his Patrick Mahomes updated, I can 548 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 1: update everyone right now. The word is in. He's playing. 549 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,680 Speaker 1: But like the guys knew Sunday night that he was 550 00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 1: gonna play, it basically came out. He got tackled around 551 00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,840 Speaker 1: his neck. And if if you at all faint or 552 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:31,960 Speaker 1: fall down to the ground or stumble, you're automatically out 553 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 1: of the game. That's like the pretty much the concussion rule. 554 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 1: Even if you don't have the concussion, you're out of 555 00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,280 Speaker 1: the game. Moms didn't have a concussion. Anyone that's played football, 556 00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:41,880 Speaker 1: you've been tackled, like when you're playing in the backyard. 557 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,239 Speaker 1: I've been tackled around my neck. You get whiplash, you're 558 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:47,440 Speaker 1: knocked out for about like two seconds, like you're Adams 559 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,640 Speaker 1: out wherever he the guy grabbed him and grabbed him 560 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,879 Speaker 1: to the ground that way. So I I took the 561 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 1: Chiefs right away to pick, just to hedge these buffalo 562 00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 1: bets I have, and now that the game is settled, 563 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 1: I have to take the Bills. Uh. I know it's 564 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,320 Speaker 1: at plus three, it's sound a plus two. This is 565 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:10,600 Speaker 1: a coin flip game. The Chiefs, they haven't looked right 566 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,679 Speaker 1: in a long time, but they have just been winning. 567 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,679 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna lean towards them where I like. I 568 00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 1: like the Chiefs. If this number does go back down 569 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:20,480 Speaker 1: to a pick, even though Mahomes is back, I don't 570 00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:24,359 Speaker 1: think it will. I think it's gonna stay at this number. Yeah, 571 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,199 Speaker 1: A value for me is on the Bills. But I 572 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:31,480 Speaker 1: just it's hard to tell people that this is gonna 573 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 1: be an easy one because the Bills haven't played great. 574 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:37,560 Speaker 1: They had a lot of things last week where they 575 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 1: didn't look right, but it was just one of those 576 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,400 Speaker 1: where that was just weather. I just thinking about passing, 577 00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:44,600 Speaker 1: offense and the elements like that. That was just too 578 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 1: much for Josh Owen. He really didn't. He didn't do terrible. 579 00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:50,120 Speaker 1: I think he had like two in yards passing, which 580 00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,560 Speaker 1: is the same as Brady. He managed the game, but 581 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 1: it was just one of those we kind of throw 582 00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,840 Speaker 1: out and when I'm looking at two these two teams 583 00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,480 Speaker 1: and offenses, I can strike at any moment. How do 584 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:01,840 Speaker 1: you have how how do you have a read on 585 00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 1: this game where you can just say, well, the Chiefs 586 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: will have possession last, so they're gonna win it. It's 587 00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,120 Speaker 1: whoever it feels a quite whereas the ball last is 588 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:11,480 Speaker 1: gonna win this game either by field goal or touchdown. 589 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 1: And if I'm getting the points with the Bills and 590 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 1: that's extra value on the money line, that's the side 591 00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:20,480 Speaker 1: I'll go to. So for this week, this has to 592 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,200 Speaker 1: be a big balls Better the week because we're literally 593 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:25,520 Speaker 1: taking a road team against the Chiefs at home and 594 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,520 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, So definitely big balls by the week. Here's Bills, 595 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 1: Big balls Better the week. We're taking the Buffalo Bills, 596 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 1: ladies and gents, and we are taking on plus three 597 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: there they're currently plus three. Are friends that sponsored us 598 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,280 Speaker 1: on the tournament draft Kings they're down to plus two 599 00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:45,760 Speaker 1: and a half. You're right there, down to two and 600 00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 1: a half. But I do see at other books. I 601 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 1: see it at Fandel, I see it at Points Bet 602 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:52,160 Speaker 1: using the Action Network, happ and the beauty of the 603 00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 1: Action Network gapp is I can get the ads from 604 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 1: every book. Yeah, And like people were complaining, I gave 605 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 1: out you gave out the Bucks plus two and a half, 606 00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,040 Speaker 1: just give out their money line, And people were saying, 607 00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 1: why don't you guys just go up plus three? There's 608 00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 1: plus three is out there. I'm just giving out draft 609 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:07,880 Speaker 1: Kings number, and if that's the worst number out there, 610 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,800 Speaker 1: I'm gonna give it out anyway, just because that's who 611 00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,320 Speaker 1: Semi saw sponsors our show. So that was that was 612 00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 1: the reason why people complain undertand why don't guys just 613 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,280 Speaker 1: give out plus three? Plus three such a key number. 614 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 1: I just gave up the money line because at that 615 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,480 Speaker 1: point plus two and a half and it rarely will 616 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,760 Speaker 1: playoff game lane on two Like this isn't one of 617 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 1: those kind of situations. So I just gave out the 618 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:32,040 Speaker 1: money line. But yeah, shop around this week, because like 619 00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:33,760 Speaker 1: you just said, there's gonna be books that still have 620 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:35,560 Speaker 1: three and a half for the Buccaneers. You don't have 621 00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:37,960 Speaker 1: to take just the three with Green Bay here. So 622 00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 1: that's that's that's that's what's another great thing about the 623 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 1: Action app exactly what you just said, Shopping around. There's 624 00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 1: there's plenty of different odds of different books, and depending 625 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,479 Speaker 1: on the state you live in, you have twenty different 626 00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 1: books to pick from. So alright, so it sounds to 627 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,320 Speaker 1: me like, if I can summarize here, you like the 628 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,080 Speaker 1: Chiefs that you liked the Chiefs that pick you feel 629 00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 1: like in a heads ups and are you know they're 630 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 1: probably the right side as the team to win. But 631 00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 1: it's close enough in your power ratings that the Bills 632 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:09,760 Speaker 1: at plus three as a dog is where do you 633 00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,720 Speaker 1: see the value? Yeah, that's what was so hard about, 634 00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 1: is like when I first saw this line come up, 635 00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 1: I go, well, they must know my homes will be back, 636 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,560 Speaker 1: because without my homes, this line is easily minus six 637 00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 1: for the Bills. I don't know if anyone watched it, 638 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:23,720 Speaker 1: but I did because I had so much money on 639 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 1: the Chargers in the final week of the year. Chad 640 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,920 Speaker 1: Henny was a starting quarterback for the Chiefs. This guy 641 00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,000 Speaker 1: cannot read defenses. Everyone saw that interception you have with 642 00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 1: in the Browns end zone. Who who was that too? 643 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 1: He he literally was throwing it right through the safety. 644 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:40,200 Speaker 1: So yeah, if it was Chad Henny, I was, oh 645 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,920 Speaker 1: my god, Yeah, I would not be hedging this these bill, 646 00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 1: this Bill's futures. But I just got worried Sunday night 647 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,960 Speaker 1: that I was gonna be my homes And the more 648 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,239 Speaker 1: I read on Monday, it just sounds like he's locked in. 649 00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,440 Speaker 1: Like the the only word you're gonna have my homes 650 00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:56,880 Speaker 1: this week is supposedly he's got a messed up foot. 651 00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:59,960 Speaker 1: If that's real, that's a big deal because the reason 652 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,480 Speaker 1: he's such a freak as his mobility in the pocket 653 00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,000 Speaker 1: and he could scramble at any time pick up those 654 00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 1: ten yards when the defense drops back. So if we 655 00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,760 Speaker 1: got an injured my homes and it does come out 656 00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,400 Speaker 1: that they're limited him because of his foot, yeah that's 657 00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,720 Speaker 1: that's a real big deal, especially for this Chief's offense. 658 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:19,960 Speaker 1: So for all these things, I'm telling people, this is 659 00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,920 Speaker 1: why I like the bills. But again, trust your gut, 660 00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:25,560 Speaker 1: Like we're mean. I just said, it's a big balls 661 00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,280 Speaker 1: bet of the week. We're going against my homes at 662 00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,480 Speaker 1: home in the a f C Championship game. Like this 663 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,400 Speaker 1: isn't an easy pick here, but it's one of those 664 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,160 Speaker 1: where it just feels like it's a smart side because 665 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 1: we're getting the good value on the number happened now 666 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:54,200 Speaker 1: the Bills make me wanna with a total here. It's 667 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,840 Speaker 1: It's been interesting hearing from different people about this total 668 00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,640 Speaker 1: because I'm like most people. I look at these two 669 00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,560 Speaker 1: often is and I just think points like these guys 670 00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 1: are gonna be throwing it, They're gonna be scoring. But 671 00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:06,960 Speaker 1: when you take a step back and you look at 672 00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:08,800 Speaker 1: the way they played and how they played earlier in 673 00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:11,720 Speaker 1: the year, they when the Chiefs player, I know it 674 00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,040 Speaker 1: was a bad weather game, they just ran it down 675 00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:18,480 Speaker 1: the Bill's throat. Uh, they ball controlled. Clyde Edwards Hilaire 676 00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:20,640 Speaker 1: had a career day. I think you rushed for like 677 00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:24,280 Speaker 1: one thirty and he really dominated the Bill's defense. And 678 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,720 Speaker 1: you fast forward and now the Bill's defense. I told 679 00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,000 Speaker 1: you last week I thought their linebackers had looked better 680 00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:32,560 Speaker 1: and they played better against the Ravens, and I think 681 00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,960 Speaker 1: they've been improving to the point now where I trust 682 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,680 Speaker 1: them here and I think that they can really take 683 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,880 Speaker 1: that aspect away from the Chiefs. The Chiefs won't be 684 00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,440 Speaker 1: aild a ball control it. So another game. I'll tell 685 00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,880 Speaker 1: people to wait, wait on the weather. But right now 686 00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 1: I'm leaning towards the younger. But it's gonna be interesting 687 00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,040 Speaker 1: seeing where the money comes. And I think whatever opened 688 00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:54,920 Speaker 1: at it bumped up, right, I think it went up 689 00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:58,080 Speaker 1: two points open maybe at now it's up to fifty. 690 00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:05,000 Speaker 1: So I saw it open at fifty and get bet down. Okay, okay, 691 00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,280 Speaker 1: so that makes more sense. So it was like whenever 692 00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:10,360 Speaker 1: it opened, I just took younger, just thinking to myself, 693 00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,360 Speaker 1: just like we did with the Chiefs and the Browns, 694 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,279 Speaker 1: it's just a lot of points in a playoff game 695 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,080 Speaker 1: where a few goals are more likely to happen. Guys 696 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 1: just get tight in the red zone and this will 697 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,880 Speaker 1: be the same thing where if like we just talked about, 698 00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,400 Speaker 1: I just don't know what the deal is with my 699 00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,400 Speaker 1: home's foot and this is a high total. If he 700 00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:32,839 Speaker 1: was fully healthy, of course, this would be a fun 701 00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,440 Speaker 1: over because both these teams on score. But if I'm 702 00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,520 Speaker 1: back in the Bills and I think Mahomes isn't right, 703 00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:39,680 Speaker 1: the Bills in the under is to play here. So 704 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,400 Speaker 1: if you want to make that our foxhold bet the 705 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:44,759 Speaker 1: under here, there's definite actly many of us in this 706 00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,680 Speaker 1: whole fighting. I feel like it's going to be a 707 00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:50,120 Speaker 1: wise guy play, so I'm down with it. Like if 708 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,120 Speaker 1: we got to choose one. Then I think we go 709 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,440 Speaker 1: with this is the foxhold because most people will want 710 00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,760 Speaker 1: to bet on the over if it's a Chiefs game. Basically, 711 00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:06,480 Speaker 1: let's climb down into the fox hole. I gave out 712 00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,759 Speaker 1: like three teasers on Twitter, and it was just a 713 00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:12,040 Speaker 1: magical weekend, especially if you go against Wong, who Wong 714 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,879 Speaker 1: says never never teased through zero. I always tease through 715 00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:16,759 Speaker 1: zero because I don't care if I get three and 716 00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:18,919 Speaker 1: a half or four and a half with a team 717 00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,160 Speaker 1: that's favorite, I just feel better about. I know I'm 718 00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,279 Speaker 1: giving up a point of value, but I just love 719 00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,719 Speaker 1: those key numbers where I just thought that Ravens game, 720 00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:28,520 Speaker 1: if they did beat the Bills, they were gonna beat 721 00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,160 Speaker 1: them by three. It was just gonna be like a 722 00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:32,040 Speaker 1: close game where Justin Tucker hits a field goal and 723 00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,399 Speaker 1: that's how they win. And I gave up my three 724 00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,279 Speaker 1: best but I honestly think I was like thirty five 725 00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,520 Speaker 1: and oh or whatever it was, because like I took 726 00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:42,320 Speaker 1: the under in that Rams Green Bay game, the teaser 727 00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,200 Speaker 1: hit it by one. It's like that undercash I took 728 00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:50,719 Speaker 1: um the over in a teaser and that Saints and 729 00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,799 Speaker 1: Bucks game, the the over under just straight up and 730 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:55,480 Speaker 1: missed by two points. But if you took the teaser, 731 00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:57,719 Speaker 1: the overhead and the under it. So that's one of 732 00:35:57,760 --> 00:35:59,360 Speaker 1: these things where I I tried to tell people the 733 00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:02,600 Speaker 1: teasers are in the playoffs, just because the books are 734 00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:05,440 Speaker 1: so sharp at this point, especially with the totals this 735 00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:07,760 Speaker 1: week for teasers, it's gonna be a little different where 736 00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:10,759 Speaker 1: if if this does get down to two and a 737 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,799 Speaker 1: half like it is right now, it's hard not to 738 00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:16,160 Speaker 1: take the Chiefs at home plus three and a half 739 00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:18,680 Speaker 1: with the Buccaneers or green Bay if that again it 740 00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:20,080 Speaker 1: gets down a two and a half. If I'm getting 741 00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:21,759 Speaker 1: green Bay at three and a half at home, that's 742 00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,440 Speaker 1: another one I'd have to tease, just because those are 743 00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:26,840 Speaker 1: such key numbers and you're getting home dogs now in 744 00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,719 Speaker 1: the playoffs. So exceptly one of those weeks where I'm 745 00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:31,600 Speaker 1: gonna hold off on it because I, like I keep 746 00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:34,359 Speaker 1: amering home. The weather thing, it's just such a big 747 00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,000 Speaker 1: deal here in late January, especially in cities like this, 748 00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:39,200 Speaker 1: you have to be on top of the weather because 749 00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:41,399 Speaker 1: just like we saw him that Bills and Ravens game, 750 00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,160 Speaker 1: that that over under was forty nine, they got the 751 00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,480 Speaker 1: twenty points. These are things you have to be on 752 00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:49,759 Speaker 1: top on like that that was that was a rare, 753 00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:52,479 Speaker 1: rare game where it was like the minute that game 754 00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,400 Speaker 1: started and Tucker missed that field goal, you're like, okay, 755 00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:57,840 Speaker 1: this isn't under like that when you saw the flags 756 00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,400 Speaker 1: just whipping, that's what you're looking for. Those are like 757 00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,560 Speaker 1: the dreams as a pro better. It's like a no 758 00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:06,160 Speaker 1: sweaty nine point cushion on and under. That's doesn't get 759 00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 1: much better than that. So for all these games are 760 00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:10,600 Speaker 1: giving out, I just wanted people to hold off on 761 00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:12,600 Speaker 1: the lines, because most of the value is already gone. Yeah, 762 00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:13,840 Speaker 1: if you like the bucks three and a half, that 763 00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:15,239 Speaker 1: three and a halfs out there, take the three and 764 00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:17,600 Speaker 1: a half. But for me, I would just keep holding 765 00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:20,640 Speaker 1: off because you missed most of the value early on here. Alright, 766 00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:23,080 Speaker 1: so here's what we got. Our Hornet's Nest is green 767 00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:25,600 Speaker 1: Bay minus three are big balls as bills plus three 768 00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,920 Speaker 1: Foxhole is the under fifty four. Here is a question 769 00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:31,160 Speaker 1: from the user that I want you to answer. Can 770 00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:36,359 Speaker 1: signmon expand on being a pro, particularly about scale of bets? 771 00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 1: And I apologize this user sent this in and I 772 00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:44,000 Speaker 1: completely misplaced the name of the person can assignment expand 773 00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:46,920 Speaker 1: on taking shots. How does he decide to take his 774 00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:50,120 Speaker 1: shot and put fifteen K in a game versus fifteen hundred? 775 00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,840 Speaker 1: How do you decide you're gonna move up in stakes 776 00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:56,800 Speaker 1: like a poker player? Uh? When do you take shots? 777 00:37:56,800 --> 00:38:00,000 Speaker 1: And how do you spot them? Basically that's it. Yeah, 778 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,080 Speaker 1: we actually did a show. I forgot when we did it, 779 00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,919 Speaker 1: but it's basically just breaking down just like little tips 780 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,000 Speaker 1: and tricks I lived by to be a prone things 781 00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:08,520 Speaker 1: that people have passed along to me. I think we 782 00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,719 Speaker 1: did like the summer or something. But you're absolutely right 783 00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:15,520 Speaker 1: for this question. I talked about how there's only maybe 784 00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:17,840 Speaker 1: make three to four to five really big bets in 785 00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:21,759 Speaker 1: a season. When I do these kind of bets, it's situational, 786 00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:23,799 Speaker 1: like there's sometimes I'll make huge bets and they'll be 787 00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:26,839 Speaker 1: like I'll money line the Chiefs with Green Bay during 788 00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:30,879 Speaker 1: the regular season. It might be minus one twenty and 789 00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:32,799 Speaker 1: I don't care because I just know that both these 790 00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:35,239 Speaker 1: guys are gonna win. And there'll be other times where 791 00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:39,160 Speaker 1: like the Rams in the Jets game where that line 792 00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:41,439 Speaker 1: got up to seventeen and a half and I had 793 00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:44,759 Speaker 1: it at thirteen. So when I'm using my system and 794 00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:46,920 Speaker 1: it's on me, I'm getting four points of data, and 795 00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:50,320 Speaker 1: then I see the sports books tweet out that percent 796 00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,520 Speaker 1: of the dollar is on the rams and the spread. 797 00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:56,640 Speaker 1: When these kind of things line up, it's it's one 798 00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:58,600 Speaker 1: of those where you just have to go all in 799 00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,960 Speaker 1: because it depends I get. It's hard to break down 800 00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,680 Speaker 1: how much I hive out in a week. Like a 801 00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:07,040 Speaker 1: normal regular season week, it might be like a hundred kit, 802 00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,040 Speaker 1: Like I'll bet I don't know, maybe thirty five thousand 803 00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:12,440 Speaker 1: early in the week, and then I'll bet another twenty 804 00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:16,720 Speaker 1: thousand by Thursday, and then comes Saturday morning, Sunday morning, 805 00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,000 Speaker 1: I might finish up and do another forty thousand. So 806 00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:21,360 Speaker 1: it's one of those where I don't want to have 807 00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:24,319 Speaker 1: too much early exposure. And in the COVID season was 808 00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,080 Speaker 1: it was really different for me where I was mainly 809 00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:29,120 Speaker 1: doing teasers and things like that earlier in the week 810 00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:32,640 Speaker 1: because I was just so scared of all everything that 811 00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:34,440 Speaker 1: would happen later on the week where all of a sudden, 812 00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,200 Speaker 1: the start running back, start quarterback, whoever it might get, 813 00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:39,800 Speaker 1: COVID head coaches wherever. It was kind of different this 814 00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,640 Speaker 1: year when a normal season, I might be getting down, 815 00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:46,840 Speaker 1: like in my bankroll on Monday or Tuesday earlier in 816 00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:49,680 Speaker 1: the week, because I'll see a line and I'll just 817 00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:51,799 Speaker 1: know other sharps are gonna hit it that it's a 818 00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:53,920 Speaker 1: bad line. And even if the publics come on the 819 00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,160 Speaker 1: other side, I just know that pros are gonna take 820 00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:59,719 Speaker 1: that number for this guy. For these big bets. It's 821 00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,799 Speaker 1: hard to say, man, because like I had, you're gonna 822 00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,799 Speaker 1: get humbled, like it's not gonna work out. Like this year, 823 00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:07,359 Speaker 1: I had a great year. I went three and one. 824 00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:10,040 Speaker 1: That means on one of those weekends, the weekend I lost, 825 00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:12,880 Speaker 1: I lost half of people's bankrolls. Like that was on 826 00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:14,960 Speaker 1: my big double us. Right, take tell people whatever you've 827 00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:16,480 Speaker 1: made this year and take half of it you bet 828 00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:19,480 Speaker 1: on this game. That hurts. Man. It's like it's a 829 00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:21,319 Speaker 1: hard week. Even if I go five and on their 830 00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,200 Speaker 1: show and I lose that one bet in my clients, 831 00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:26,960 Speaker 1: like it's it's hard, but it's one of those where 832 00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:29,080 Speaker 1: you just you just move past it because you just 833 00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:32,560 Speaker 1: know you're just gonna keep fired. Like that's why I 834 00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:34,759 Speaker 1: might like get upset and I'll be I'll be heard 835 00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:37,120 Speaker 1: about a loss I won't tweet about her. I won't 836 00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,080 Speaker 1: pitch a moment about it because you just as a pro, 837 00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,560 Speaker 1: it's just another day at the office. You kind of 838 00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:43,560 Speaker 1: getting them to do it, and you got you also 839 00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:45,600 Speaker 1: getting them to the winds, which kind of sounds sad, 840 00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:48,640 Speaker 1: but it's the truth. Like I got more joy from 841 00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:50,560 Speaker 1: us cashing in the money than I did win in 842 00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:53,399 Speaker 1: six figures and my Survivor pool, Like the Surviving Pool 843 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:55,840 Speaker 1: win was cool, but it's just me for the guys 844 00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:57,640 Speaker 1: that one that like, that's what I'm selling in said, 845 00:40:57,719 --> 00:40:59,440 Speaker 1: where the fans like it's cool to celebrate with them. 846 00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:01,799 Speaker 1: So that's like the different thing with this where yeah, 847 00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:04,360 Speaker 1: I hate the negative stuff and like having a bad 848 00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:06,640 Speaker 1: loss or like last week going whatever it was one 849 00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:10,040 Speaker 1: in five against the spread. Yeah man, that's uh, that's 850 00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:12,239 Speaker 1: a tough philto swallow, especially with something like guys on 851 00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:14,880 Speaker 1: Twitter just dumping on you. But as a pro, I 852 00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:18,400 Speaker 1: don't really worry about too much because if you do 853 00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:21,120 Speaker 1: it long enough, you win. And that's the thing where me, 854 00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:24,080 Speaker 1: it's like last week I did bad, this week I 855 00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:26,160 Speaker 1: went four and oh on my money line bets, Like 856 00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:28,439 Speaker 1: every team I bet on their money lines came through 857 00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:31,759 Speaker 1: all my teasers came through. I didn't do great straight up, 858 00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:33,839 Speaker 1: but it's like I don't I didn't have that much 859 00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:36,279 Speaker 1: exposure straight up because I just felt safe from the 860 00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,759 Speaker 1: teas number. So it is one of those where it's 861 00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:41,399 Speaker 1: it's tough to navigate. My advice to him would be, 862 00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:45,239 Speaker 1: you keep your day job. There's like I joke with 863 00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,640 Speaker 1: all time. I've lived in Jersey now for three years 864 00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:50,239 Speaker 1: and I've met maybe ten other pros and they're just 865 00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:52,920 Speaker 1: smartest ship and like they're just locked on their computers. 866 00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:54,880 Speaker 1: Like when I'm in Vegas, the pros I meet are 867 00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:57,120 Speaker 1: in their mid sixties with a big gass belly. It's 868 00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,680 Speaker 1: just different. The new wave of pro betters is very 869 00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:01,600 Speaker 1: different than the old wave. Where the old wave was 870 00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,560 Speaker 1: they just saw spots and they knew they just knew 871 00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:06,440 Speaker 1: things that they heard things, and that's how they bet. 872 00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:08,560 Speaker 1: For the new age now, it's just all about data, 873 00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:11,040 Speaker 1: trusting that data and building the system and playing off that. 874 00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:14,400 Speaker 1: So for him, I would say, like, you bet whatever 875 00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:17,440 Speaker 1: you're comfortable with your whatever you're I don't do units, 876 00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,440 Speaker 1: So that's tough to say, but it's like you have 877 00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:21,440 Speaker 1: to take these risks because if you just do these 878 00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:24,120 Speaker 1: one units all season. What are you doing here? If 879 00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:26,000 Speaker 1: you're trying to build a bankroll, you have to take risk. 880 00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,520 Speaker 1: But I try to really instill people in here. If 881 00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:31,840 Speaker 1: you bet ugly, you're gonna win money. Like that's the book. 882 00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:34,600 Speaker 1: They win money off ugly teams. They don't win money 883 00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:36,479 Speaker 1: off the Chiefs. They don't win money off Green Bay. 884 00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,480 Speaker 1: They win it off ugly teams. So keep doing what 885 00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,680 Speaker 1: you're doing. Listen to this kind of show, other football shows, 886 00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:44,719 Speaker 1: other gambling shows. Most normal pros are good dudes. You 887 00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:47,440 Speaker 1: want to help other dude like other professionals. It's not 888 00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:49,520 Speaker 1: like on Twitter where it's just like bad blood and 889 00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:51,719 Speaker 1: people are like, oh, this guy had this team. What 890 00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:53,680 Speaker 1: an idiot? Like how can you take the Rams against 891 00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:56,319 Speaker 1: Green Bay and spread like all these things. It's it's 892 00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:58,120 Speaker 1: just not like that in the world where where there's 893 00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:00,319 Speaker 1: just only a few of us. So, like, if I'm 894 00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:02,759 Speaker 1: reading stuff bad, these guys always reach out, especially ones. 895 00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:04,120 Speaker 1: I listen to the show and like, that's what I 896 00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:06,680 Speaker 1: love about the communities, that we're all in it together. 897 00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:08,880 Speaker 1: You're not against other betters. I know you guys just 898 00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:11,279 Speaker 1: did a sale on your app. It was twenty dollars 899 00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:13,640 Speaker 1: for whatever was the season or whatever it was. How 900 00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:15,439 Speaker 1: do you how do you not just pay that You're 901 00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:17,560 Speaker 1: you're literally paying for a service that's gonna tell you 902 00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:20,560 Speaker 1: what side the public song. And for me, matching up 903 00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:22,799 Speaker 1: against the public is such a key thing in my job, 904 00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:25,520 Speaker 1: where if I really like a game and the and 905 00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:27,960 Speaker 1: the public's heavy on the other side, I just keep 906 00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:30,359 Speaker 1: loading up, especially when the line moves towards what I like. 907 00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,279 Speaker 1: That's the best feel in the world. So I don't 908 00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:35,040 Speaker 1: I can't tell people what to do with other sports 909 00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:37,840 Speaker 1: because football is my specialty. Like I don't know what 910 00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:40,040 Speaker 1: it's like the NBA with the public and things like that, 911 00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:42,960 Speaker 1: but I just know in the NFL, the book is 912 00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:45,440 Speaker 1: just so smart and making these lines because this is 913 00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:48,400 Speaker 1: their biggest exposure. Everyone in the world bets football in America, 914 00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:51,000 Speaker 1: like this is in America. This is our biggest thing 915 00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:54,680 Speaker 1: to bet on. And I would tell people. The longer 916 00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,399 Speaker 1: I do it, the more I realized that the best 917 00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:00,640 Speaker 1: thing ever happening is the legalization of gambling. Like this 918 00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:03,240 Speaker 1: year was a year of the dog, and I probably 919 00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:06,120 Speaker 1: most games got an extra plus hundred hundred fifty on 920 00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:08,160 Speaker 1: these dogs just because of public would come in so 921 00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:11,239 Speaker 1: heavy on the favorite. So for my advice to these 922 00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:13,960 Speaker 1: people is just to learn to bet ugly and just 923 00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:17,560 Speaker 1: to really every day just wake up and check the lines, 924 00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:19,839 Speaker 1: and then before the game start check the lines again. 925 00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:22,719 Speaker 1: And if you see, like I keep saying, all the 926 00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:24,560 Speaker 1: money coming outside and the line didn't move, and it's 927 00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,400 Speaker 1: a home dog and people keep taking the other side, 928 00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:30,120 Speaker 1: take that home dog and sprinkle it on the money line. 929 00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:33,080 Speaker 1: Like that's how you build a bank roll. And if 930 00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:36,400 Speaker 1: you like doing these crazy parlays, keep doing them, but 931 00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:38,919 Speaker 1: do it for one tenth of a normal bet. Bet 932 00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:42,160 Speaker 1: very small in these parlays because I like parleys too. 933 00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:44,920 Speaker 1: It's fun having action on all the games, but no 934 00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:47,719 Speaker 1: one wins long term betting parlays like the way you 935 00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:49,480 Speaker 1: win long terms. But I just told people you have 936 00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:51,960 Speaker 1: to load up on certain games of certain spots because 937 00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:54,719 Speaker 1: I talked about in our first podcast, Buddy, you have 938 00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,680 Speaker 1: all the power. No one's making you bet, like if 939 00:44:57,680 --> 00:44:59,560 Speaker 1: you have an itch and you always needed scratched. You 940 00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:02,200 Speaker 1: always to have action on a game. Make one dollar 941 00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:04,920 Speaker 1: bets like it really doesn't matter because like you're not 942 00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:07,840 Speaker 1: you're not betting to win actual money you're betting just 943 00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:10,200 Speaker 1: to scratch an itch. Like you're not putting any work 944 00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:11,799 Speaker 1: or thought into your bet. You're just saying, oh, I 945 00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,160 Speaker 1: like this side. I'll just bet whatever I might come 946 00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:16,560 Speaker 1: on on your all happy dory. But like I'm betting 947 00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,480 Speaker 1: really big money on some of these games, and like 948 00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:22,080 Speaker 1: I lose. It's real money and it really hurts because 949 00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:24,480 Speaker 1: it's a lot of money. But like I keep telling you, 950 00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:26,600 Speaker 1: but the professional way, it's like you just have to 951 00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:28,920 Speaker 1: get over that stuff and move on. So the longer 952 00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:30,800 Speaker 1: you do it, it's like muscle memory, and the smarter 953 00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:33,440 Speaker 1: you get with money management, it's just such an easy 954 00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:35,680 Speaker 1: thing to make money. Yet once you get smart and 955 00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:38,880 Speaker 1: have self control, you've made your point. It would be 956 00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:42,799 Speaker 1: I think, seemingly if the honorable Gentleman speedily brought his 957 00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:46,440 Speaker 1: speech to a conclusion. So I know it's a long 958 00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,600 Speaker 1: one to answer to the guy, but it's tough to 959 00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:50,759 Speaker 1: say when to tell the kid to take a risk. 960 00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:52,120 Speaker 1: But those are the things that I look for when 961 00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:54,200 Speaker 1: I do take big risks. You know what it comes 962 00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:58,040 Speaker 1: down to. A wise man, a very wise man. You 963 00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:01,759 Speaker 1: could say he's got away with words. Chad Millman is 964 00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:06,880 Speaker 1: proud of himself. You could say he's a seven time author. 965 00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:12,720 Speaker 1: Chad Milman wrote a book, a four time best selling author. 966 00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:18,680 Speaker 1: You could say his name begins with Chad and ends 967 00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:26,480 Speaker 1: with Millman. Chad Millman got something right. Uh, gross bets 968 00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:31,800 Speaker 1: equal gross profits. Let's give away some money, Simon. That 969 00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:34,239 Speaker 1: was a great answer, and people appreciate it, and that 970 00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:36,920 Speaker 1: their sincerity and honesty in that, Like, I know you 971 00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:40,840 Speaker 1: came on the podcast specifically to sort of start educating 972 00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:43,959 Speaker 1: people and make them understand like how betters think about 973 00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:46,400 Speaker 1: these games, and and that sort of key the idea 974 00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:49,600 Speaker 1: of tracking data, tracking lines, betting against the public. Those 975 00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:51,600 Speaker 1: are things that we've talked a lot about at the 976 00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:54,239 Speaker 1: Action Network and certainly I'm glad to see you sort 977 00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:57,120 Speaker 1: of bringing those home to roost in a really tangible way. 978 00:46:57,280 --> 00:47:00,080 Speaker 1: We are doing another phrase to pays contest and it 979 00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,080 Speaker 1: earns a hundred dollars for every win Simon and I 980 00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:05,000 Speaker 1: have this week. Action Network will match that number with 981 00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:07,879 Speaker 1: the donation to the winner's favorite charity. To be eligible, 982 00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:11,360 Speaker 1: go follow at the favorites pot, go follow it, tag 983 00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:15,080 Speaker 1: us and use the phrase, Simon says, stand back up. 984 00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:19,080 Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, producer Extraordinary will sift through the submissions and 985 00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:22,600 Speaker 1: randomly choose the winner. The winner of last week's contest 986 00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:26,400 Speaker 1: winning two dollars because we went two and three Keith 987 00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:30,640 Speaker 1: Schultz at k W Schultz. I hope you're listening, buddy. 988 00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:34,080 Speaker 1: Reach out to Matt dot Mitchell at Action network dot 989 00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:37,879 Speaker 1: com at the favorites pot. The player that broke my heart. 990 00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:39,560 Speaker 1: Remember this was a give us the name of the 991 00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:42,399 Speaker 1: wild card player that broke your heart. The player that 992 00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:46,800 Speaker 1: broke my heart was Taylor Heinekey. He was playing all 993 00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:50,800 Speaker 1: out balls to the wall and I would have loved 994 00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:55,279 Speaker 1: to have been on him this week. Also, I got 995 00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:59,879 Speaker 1: on Washington at plus seven and a half Keith who 996 00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:05,200 Speaker 1: fully this is the tiger bamb to your heartbreak. You 997 00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:09,800 Speaker 1: just want two and so did the charity of your choice. Simon. 998 00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:13,120 Speaker 1: That's our podcast reminder. We are on the Green Bay 999 00:48:13,120 --> 00:48:16,240 Speaker 1: Packers minus three Hornets, Nest bet Are Big Balls Bills 1000 00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:21,480 Speaker 1: plus three, our Foxhold under fifty four Chiefs Bills track 1001 00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:24,359 Speaker 1: everything in the Action to work at follow at Simon Hunter. 1002 00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:27,919 Speaker 1: I am Shad Millman, Eve Simon Hunter. This has been 1003 00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:31,960 Speaker 1: the favorite podcast download from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever 1004 00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:34,600 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. I love you,