Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day
Speaker 1: for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment.
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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Jeffrey Rosenberg,
Speaker 1: portfolio manager, Systematic Multi Strategy Fund at Black Crack. I
Speaker 1: don't know which way this is going to cut, you know, Jeff.
Speaker 1: We talked to Steve Major of HSBC at Bloomberg today
Speaker 1: and there's this whole idea of okay, we've had this move,
Speaker 1: Now which way does it cut? Are you betting here
Speaker 1: on a direction in the yield market, particularly off a
Speaker 1: quiescent jobs report.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Tom, I think when you look at this report,
Speaker 2: it's there are some comments, as Jonathan was just talking about,
Speaker 2: between the wages, but the headline is really a story
Speaker 2: of gradual labor market normalization, and gradual labor market normalization
Speaker 2: basically continues the market expectation that the hike of the
Speaker 2: last meeting was the last hike, and and that's the
Speaker 2: big change in the in the yield market outlook is
Speaker 2: that we're seeing the effects of normalization in the labor market. Yes,
Speaker 2: wages will follow, maybe not. That remains the uncertainty. But
Speaker 2: you look at the ECI report, you look at some
Speaker 2: of the other broader reports, what do they show you?
Speaker 2: They show a gradual slowing in wage inflation, and so
Speaker 2: that feeds into this narrative that the FED can be done,
Speaker 2: they can wait. And so for the for the yield outlook,
Speaker 2: it's it's really about the shape of the curve. What
Speaker 2: we saw this week the steepening, and I think that
Speaker 2: remains to be the message that that's our our main
Speaker 2: focus in terms of our position.
Speaker 1: Your broad mandate, which spread gives you the most information
Speaker 1: right now? Which comparison of two yields gives you the
Speaker 1: most information?
Speaker 2: You know, you can look at lots of different measures.
Speaker 2: We tend to like the five year five year forward.
Speaker 2: You know, it's a it's a nice measure. It captures
Speaker 2: both the level and the shape of the curve. And
Speaker 2: it's moving. And you know, we've seen a significant move
Speaker 2: this week, and and for good reason. The back end
Speaker 2: of the curve is definitely a bit more challenged when
Speaker 2: you look at historic levels a five year, five year forward.
Speaker 2: If you look at I think you're showing here, you know,
Speaker 2: we look at the two ten spread, and I think
Speaker 2: that's really where the market pricing is a little bit vulnerable.
Speaker 2: When we look at all of the information that we
Speaker 2: saw come out this week, you know, and and away
Speaker 2: from kind of the monetary policy focus, it's it's really
Speaker 2: about fiscal policy. We had the refunding announcement, and you
Speaker 2: see very very compressed term premium both in real and
Speaker 2: inflationary space, and that's I think the vulnerability that we're
Speaker 2: looking at.
Speaker 3: Jeff, I have to go back to something that you're
Speaker 3: saying that what people basically are assuming is if FED
Speaker 3: is done, they're not going to raise rates more.
Speaker 4: And that's what you're seeing today where.
Speaker 3: There's a little bit of a move at the front end,
Speaker 3: but really the move that you're seeing is at the
Speaker 3: tenure yield once again reaching four point two percent, the
Speaker 3: highest levels going back to November.
Speaker 4: This is the key question.
Speaker 3: Is the FED going to take their foot off the
Speaker 3: break at a time when we're still seeing wages go up?
Speaker 3: Is that basically the assumption of markets now looking at
Speaker 3: a FED comfortable of three percent inflation over a longer
Speaker 3: period of time and not needing to get down to
Speaker 3: two percent so quickly.
Speaker 2: Well, it's a really good question, Lisa. What does taking
Speaker 2: the foot off the break mean. Does it mean not
Speaker 2: doing another hike that they signaled last meeting two men
Speaker 2: days ago, or does it mean just simply leaving rates unchanged.
Speaker 2: Or does it mean as the bond market is anticipating
Speaker 2: that they move to cutting interest rates? And I think
Speaker 2: as we progress this debate, we're going to increasingly talk
Speaker 2: not about the next FED hike, but how much inflation
Speaker 2: decline if we continue to see that decline. How much
Speaker 2: inflation decline you need to see before the Fed has
Speaker 2: to start cutting rates, Because as inflation declines and the
Speaker 2: Fed stays pat, real interest rates, the real Fed funds rate,
Speaker 2: which is the transmission mechanism for monetary policy, that begins
Speaker 2: to actually increase. So how much actual breaking does the
Speaker 2: FED tolerate, not by their action, but by further declines
Speaker 2: and interest rates? And that's going to be the metric
Speaker 2: that Poul is really telling you about in the press
Speaker 2: conference from last week, that was really the story is
Speaker 2: that as inflation comes down, their policy gets tighter, and
Speaker 2: how much how willing are they going to be to
Speaker 2: see that tightening in policy? Again, this is all predicated
Speaker 2: on this expectation that will continue to see further declines
Speaker 2: in inflation, and obviously that changes, the whole story changes,
Speaker 2: but that is kind of the natural breaking that occurs
Speaker 2: without the FED having to do anything.
Speaker 3: Just quickly here, Jeff, it seems like there's been a
Speaker 3: narrative shift over the past couple of weeks. We're higher
Speaker 3: for longer is more acceptable as well as a soft
Speaker 3: landing type of scenario.
Speaker 4: How much are you leaning into this and.
Speaker 3: Adjusting your expectation of yields being higher for longer, but
Speaker 3: also risk acids continuing to chug along in the meantime.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, part of the problem with adjusting too
Speaker 2: much is that the market pricing for so many risky
Speaker 2: assets is already there. So when you look at is
Speaker 2: there a lot of opportunity in credit markets, for example,
Speaker 2: for the soft landing being realized, you see that you're
Speaker 2: pricing in many cases mid expansion type levels for expectations.
Speaker 2: You know, you look at the high bond market, for example,
Speaker 2: it has been on a tightening tear. It has never
Speaker 2: really reflected the same degree of recession fears and recession
Speaker 2: probabilities that you see, say, you know the consensus economics
Speaker 2: profession now you know moving away from pushing down recession probabilities.
Speaker 2: You never really had that price into the credit markets,
Speaker 2: this huge disconnect between you know, the sluice, the credit
Speaker 2: indications in the surveys, and what's pricing the market. So
Speaker 2: there is an opportunity. It's really about carry rather than
Speaker 2: price appreciation because a lot of that price appreciation already
Speaker 2: happened off of the November loads of last year.
Speaker 1: Jeff Rosenberg, thank you so much with black Rock this morning,
Speaker 1: right now on this jobs day, with all that we
Speaker 1: see in the market's futures of fractionally up as well,
Speaker 1: without question, the conversation of the day on having the
Speaker 1: courage to be in this market given the sum of
Speaker 1: all our fears. Edward Yard Denny joins as president of
Speaker 1: your Denny Research. I can't say enough about his prescience
Speaker 1: once again across many decades. In October of last year,
Speaker 1: reaffirm ed Yard Denny how a bull acts and moves
Speaker 1: forward given them many fears.
Speaker 5: That are out there well, I've been thinking that we've
Speaker 5: been in a recession since early last years. We've discussed
Speaker 5: before it's just been a rolling recession. Now I think
Speaker 5: we're in a rolling recovery, and I think increasingly the
Speaker 5: markets obviously have discounted that, and the so called Godeaux
Speaker 5: recession still hasn't shown up. It may show up at
Speaker 5: some point, but with regards to the market, my year
Speaker 5: end target for the S and P five hundred is
Speaker 5: forty six hundred.
Speaker 6: We got there a.
Speaker 5: Few days ago, so I'm thinking I'm not going to
Speaker 5: raise my target forty six hundred.
Speaker 6: I'm going to keep it there.
Speaker 5: I think it's going to turn out that the expectations
Speaker 5: at the beginning of the year was that we would
Speaker 5: have a pretty lousely first half of the year and
Speaker 5: a good second half of the year for the market.
Speaker 6: I think it's going to be the reverse of that.
Speaker 5: I think we've clearly had a very good first half,
Speaker 5: and I think the second half is just going to
Speaker 5: be challenging. I don't think it's going to be a
Speaker 5: big downer. I think it's going to be kind of sideways.
Speaker 5: September is coming, and that obviously could create some problems
Speaker 5: but by year end, I think we'll be at forty
Speaker 5: six hundred, which is where we were a few days ago.
Speaker 3: How much are you buying in to this idea that
Speaker 3: we're going to see higher rates for longer particularly in
Speaker 3: duration in ten year notes, in thirty year notes.
Speaker 5: Well, I've thought that on short term rates that the
Speaker 5: FED was pretty clear what they wanted to do, and
Speaker 5: I took them at their word. I know there's always
Speaker 5: skepticism and the feeling that the FED isn't.
Speaker 6: Going to get it right, but they've been saying.
Speaker 5: They wanted to get the short term rate up to
Speaker 5: a restrictive level. I think they're there at five hundred
Speaker 5: quarter percent. I don't think they have to do anymore.
Speaker 5: I think they're just going to leave it there. What
Speaker 5: is interesting is, my friends, the bond vigilanti seem to
Speaker 5: be settling up, and I thought we'd hold around four percent,
Speaker 5: But here we are back at the November high of.
Speaker 6: Four point two percent.
Speaker 5: So it's looking a little dicey on the bond side,
Speaker 5: and I think suddenly we have to take into consideration
Speaker 5: that while the Fitch rating agencies downgraded the US government
Speaker 5: debt was sort of the event that focused everybody back
Speaker 5: on the deficit. The fact of the matter is, we've
Speaker 5: all known that the deficit is a problem. We've known
Speaker 5: that fiscal policy is profligate. It's just the market cares
Speaker 5: about it now. So if the market cares about it,
Speaker 5: I've got to care about it.
Speaker 4: At a certain point.
Speaker 3: Ed, when does the higher rate structure at the long end,
Speaker 3: at the ten year, at the thirty year end, not
Speaker 3: on the short end threaten your bull thesis.
Speaker 5: Well, I think that it already done its damage in
Speaker 5: the one area where the rolling recession is hit, and
Speaker 5: that's in housing. But even there we've seen of late
Speaker 5: the housing markets holding up pretty well, at least in
Speaker 5: terms of prices, and there really is a shortage.
Speaker 6: The real issue is the consumer.
Speaker 5: Will higher long term rates knock down the consumer? And
Speaker 5: I don't think that's necessarily the case at this point.
Speaker 5: The consumer obviously depends on a certain amount of consumer debt.
Speaker 5: But the key is employment. The key is wages. And
Speaker 5: while employment we can somewhat, it can always be revised
Speaker 5: one way or the other. We know that the waging
Speaker 5: number at four point four percent well exceeded the Well,
Speaker 5: let's make it zero point four because we're doing month
Speaker 5: to month, so zero point four, we know that it
Speaker 5: exceeded the CPI, and so real wages are increasing, and
Speaker 5: consumers have a lot of wealth in their houses. The
Speaker 5: baby boomers have a lot of wealth. They're retiring and
Speaker 5: spending it. So all in all, I'm not quite sure
Speaker 5: how a increase in the bond yield knocks the consumer down,
Speaker 5: unless that you just get some sort of banking crisis
Speaker 5: event again as a result of that.
Speaker 4: Just quickly then ed.
Speaker 3: How much are you thinking that the FED is still
Speaker 3: gone enough even if we are seeing this and sticky
Speaker 3: inflation and wage pressures.
Speaker 5: Well, it looks sticky, but I think the productivity numbers
Speaker 5: are starting to come through. Yesterday we had a remarkable
Speaker 5: increase in productivity of three and a half percent. It
Speaker 5: was so remarkable that even a bullleg myself didn't quite
Speaker 5: believe it because it also indicated that employment was flat,
Speaker 5: which wasn't really the case as we know based on
Speaker 5: the monthly data. But I think productivity is going to
Speaker 5: make it come back, and we may very well see
Speaker 5: wages rising faster than prices.
Speaker 1: And long ago and far away on a Friday evening,
Speaker 1: lou ru Keiser would sit there with you on the couch,
Speaker 1: and he'd say, what's it look like? Long term? Modern
Speaker 1: day long term is nine months, maybe it's a year
Speaker 1: at Yard Denny for the mere mortals watching and listening,
Speaker 1: where long term is three years or five years. Frame
Speaker 1: out the growth you see in revenue of our equities.
Speaker 1: It seems to be pretty darn good, like four percent whatever.
Speaker 1: Give us a yard Denny three year perspective.
Speaker 5: Well, I actually like to do a decade decade perspectives.
Speaker 5: And this decade, I think started out with all sorts
Speaker 5: of problems.
Speaker 6: At the very.
Speaker 5: Beginning of the decade, before the pandemic hit, I started
Speaker 5: talking about a possibility of the Roaring twenty twenties with
Speaker 5: productivity making a big comeback, and that looked absolutely delusional
Speaker 5: there for the past couple of years. But it's looking
Speaker 5: like it might be a reasonable way to think about
Speaker 5: the rest of the decade. Just but robotics, automation and
Speaker 5: lots of technologies there that are going to boost productivity.
Speaker 5: So I think from a revenue perspective, you know, revenues
Speaker 5: tend to increase along with nominal GDP if we get
Speaker 5: a productivity boost here. There's no particular reason why revenues
Speaker 5: grow five to eight percent.
Speaker 1: Should we fear the concentration of seven, eight, nine, ten
Speaker 1: mega names The meganames have reported two of them in
Speaker 1: the last twenty four hours. How should we interpret the
Speaker 1: durability of what we see from these names?
Speaker 5: Well, first and foremost, I personally try not to get
Speaker 5: too emotional about the markets. I mean, it's it's easy,
Speaker 5: it's easy to save and hard to do, and I
Speaker 5: do go on the same roller coaster as everybody else.
Speaker 5: But if you try to control your emotions, you just
Speaker 5: have to deal with the facts. And the fact is
Speaker 5: we've got I call them the megacap eight. We got
Speaker 5: eight companies that account for twenty seven percent of the
Speaker 5: market cap of the S and P five hundred and
Speaker 5: they are great companies, as Amazon demonstrated with its latest
Speaker 5: journeys report, and I think they're going to continue to
Speaker 5: have an outside impact on the market capitalization of the market,
Speaker 5: which means we have to accept the pees higher because
Speaker 5: they're you hire.
Speaker 1: Ed your dorney, Thank you so much on a Friday morning,
Speaker 1: mister Yourrdney research friendly kids listening.
Speaker 7: Barbie still has legs to confirm that just confirming, Oh
Speaker 7: my god, Tom forday just now, Tom's going to catch up.
Speaker 7: Catching up yesterday was really revealing as well, some insightful
Speaker 7: comments you made on Apple where you essentially said, and
Speaker 7: you've written about this, you think maybe the stock had
Speaker 7: gone too far. We're down this morning by one point
Speaker 7: eight percent. You're aware of the bullish thesis, Tom, there's
Speaker 7: this upgrade cycle, lots of people sitting on old phones.
Speaker 7: They're all going to upgrade and buy new ones. Where
Speaker 7: is the upgrade right now going into the new launch
Speaker 7: of new products in a month or so.
Speaker 8: So the most concerning statistic from Tim Cook on the
Speaker 8: call yesterday was that consumers more than half are already
Speaker 8: paying for their.
Speaker 9: Apple product on an installment basis.
Speaker 8: So I think the low hanging fruitsman picked to the
Speaker 8: extent that that was the opportunity for Apple to get
Speaker 8: you to go from buying your iPhone or having your
Speaker 8: iPhone essentially fully subsidized by the carrier, to now having
Speaker 8: the consumer.
Speaker 9: Pay for it on an installment basis, often with no interest.
Speaker 8: And I also am concerned that the carriers are going
Speaker 8: to subsidize the fifteen to a lesser degree than the
Speaker 8: fourteen or thirteen. Yes, they want more consumers on their
Speaker 8: five G networks where they've invested billions, but their times
Speaker 8: are tough too right now, so that comments on the
Speaker 8: iPhone are concerning, and I think that's what's weighing the stop.
Speaker 1: Time away from your neutrin call and to go to
Speaker 1: the Apple fanboys and all that. The bottom line is,
Speaker 1: it's an ugly June. Ugly July. It happens every year.
Speaker 1: We have to wait for September. Somebody with a black
Speaker 1: turtleneck walks out on stage and tells us the second
Speaker 1: coming of Apple, and OMG, the stock goes up. Why
Speaker 1: is that going to be different this time?
Speaker 8: It's going to be different this time because I think
Speaker 8: that they just told us that the September quarter, where
Speaker 8: they're going to tell us about this new wonderful iPhone,
Speaker 8: is going to have negative revenue growth, and that while
Speaker 8: the iPhone will have an improvement from the negative two
Speaker 8: point four percent it did in the June quarter, it'll
Speaker 8: likely be negative as well. So yes, they'll be touting
Speaker 8: the every new feature on the iPhone, but they're promising
Speaker 8: made about the financial impact are pretty disappointing.
Speaker 1: The Open Prayer Services picks it up and crosses how
Speaker 1: far out do you go where services catches up and
Speaker 1: advances and overcomes iPhone dynamics. Is it a three year lookout,
Speaker 1: is it out ten years? How far out is that
Speaker 1: magic point where services become really important?
Speaker 8: So the mass suggests time more like five years when
Speaker 8: you think of the relative growth rate of services to
Speaker 8: everything else.
Speaker 9: But if you look at the.
Speaker 8: Quarter, hardware was down, iPhones were down, iPads were down,
Speaker 8: laptops were down.
Speaker 9: Services was up. That's great news. And I do believe over.
Speaker 8: The long term, Apple is a service is real possibility.
Speaker 8: You pay two hundred dollars a month, you get the
Speaker 8: latest and greatest iPhone, You probably get Apple TV and
Speaker 8: other things, and then you're not thinking about the fact
Speaker 8: that you're essentially paying two thousand dollars for that new iPhone.
Speaker 8: You're just thinking about the two hundred dollars a month
Speaker 8: and getting the latest and greatest iPhone.
Speaker 9: I think that that's the.
Speaker 8: Opportunity long term, But mathematically, I think it's more than
Speaker 8: five years out before services is more than half revenue.
Speaker 3: So, Tom, you did decrease your price target for Apple,
Speaker 3: but you increased your price target for Amazon after they
Speaker 3: delivered much better than expected results and suddenly everyone's heralding
Speaker 3: Andy Jasse as.
Speaker 4: The hero of Wall Street.
Speaker 3: How long can this be the case for him to
Speaker 3: keep cutting and keep beating on the top and bottom
Speaker 3: lines across the board.
Speaker 9: My best answer right now is that this is twelve months.
Speaker 8: So they just had their good June quarter, their good
Speaker 8: outlook for the September quarter. They'll have a good December
Speaker 8: requorder and a good March quarter. I am very concerned
Speaker 8: that at some point reality sets in and to the
Speaker 8: upset that these cost cuts are making them less customer centric.
Speaker 8: That's going to slow the flywheel price convenience selection. So
Speaker 8: I think the next twelve months they're good. Day one
Speaker 8: of the next year.
Speaker 3: I'm concerned some people might argue that the cloud business
Speaker 3: is going to take overall. It has done the heavy
Speaker 3: lifting for all the profitability of this company, and it
Speaker 3: showed signs of picking back up. There'll be questions about
Speaker 3: whether it's gaining market share versus Microsoft Azure. How long
Speaker 3: can that really be the main flag bearer for the company?
Speaker 4: I mean, is not enough to really.
Speaker 3: Offset what you see down the line on the customer
Speaker 3: service side, in the sort of retail side of things.
Speaker 9: The answer is not long enough.
Speaker 8: So we're cheering a twelve point two percent growth rate
Speaker 8: compared to a fifteen point eight percent growth rate, and
Speaker 8: they werefore in the March quarter. Though it is better
Speaker 8: than the ten point eight they suggested the month of April.
Speaker 8: That's the slowest growth rate since AWS was launched in
Speaker 8: two thousand and six. Andy Jase is bragging about double
Speaker 8: digit growth as if it's.
Speaker 9: Not going to be sustained.
Speaker 8: So a lack of double digit growth for one of
Speaker 8: their most important profit centers is hugely problematic, especially given.
Speaker 9: The current state of an e commerce business.
Speaker 8: Amazon collectively needs something like three point four billion for
Speaker 8: an incremental basis point or a percentage point revenue growth.
Speaker 8: They're going to need advertising, they're gonna need video, they're
Speaker 8: gonna need healthcare. They're gonna need something else to come
Speaker 8: in to take the baton from AWS.
Speaker 6: Over long term, it's on.
Speaker 7: Can you describe how service on the e commerce side
Speaker 7: has deteriorated over the last year?
Speaker 9: Yes, So the best example is anecdotal.
Speaker 8: So I had a defective smoke alarm that I purchased
Speaker 8: on Amazon not that long ago.
Speaker 9: They would say, Brosar it's defective.
Speaker 8: Will send you a replacement, put the whole one on
Speaker 8: your porch and UPS to pick it up for free.
Speaker 8: Now they want seven to ninety nine for UPS to
Speaker 8: pick it up, or they want me to go to
Speaker 8: Whole Foods Wightline of Whole Foods to return it. So
Speaker 8: that to me is one example. What's going to happen
Speaker 8: is I'm going to start thinking more about going to Target.
Speaker 8: I'm going to think more about going to Walmart, to Costco,
Speaker 8: to other retailers. And I think that's hugely concerning for Amazon,
Speaker 8: something I'm monitoring closely.
Speaker 7: It's anecdotal, but I had the same thing from so
Speaker 7: many PayPal Tom Tomfode if Aidavis and greatco on Apple
Speaker 7: got into the Innix.
Speaker 1: Let's turn to politics right now, the politics of the
Speaker 1: United States of America. We do this so much for
Speaker 1: our international audience. Wendy Schiller has advised us with Brown University,
Speaker 1: the Tommins Center for American Politics. Wendy, I want to
Speaker 1: go to the word culnulative. We're using it in economics
Speaker 1: now in the FED we have culnulative indictments. What is
Speaker 1: the difference between this single event of yesterday and the
Speaker 1: fact there's been one, There's been two there's been three,
Speaker 1: and dare I say there could be. What's the difference?
Speaker 10: The distinction It depends on the audience.
Speaker 11: Tom's a great point is for Trump supporters, you know,
Speaker 11: really very loyal people who've stuck with the former president,
Speaker 11: this just emboldens them, keeps them more loyal. You know,
Speaker 11: their team is losing and they're going to basically be
Speaker 11: on that team and nothing is going to shake.
Speaker 10: Them, So they get more emboldened.
Speaker 11: But I think it continues to turn off independent voters
Speaker 11: who were the swing voters and some of these key
Speaker 11: states that former president Trump lost in twenty twenty. So
Speaker 11: the audience that gets disgusted by sort of three indictments
Speaker 11: that that audience was leaving anyway or already left.
Speaker 10: They're not going back to Trump.
Speaker 11: But the Trump base, particularly coming up into the primary,
Speaker 11: is more emboldened and wants to defend their president. We'll
Speaker 11: see if these donations keep coming in, the small money
Speaker 11: donations that he's been using to pay its defense funds,
Speaker 11: that's going to get more expensive. Does that money keep
Speaker 11: flowing in right.
Speaker 1: Well, Professor shul I want to find fascinating here is
Speaker 1: the zeitgeis Oh in the last twenty four hours. There's
Speaker 1: one idea of how small the Trump audience is yet
Speaker 1: obviously very loyal and all that, Where are what are
Speaker 1: the other Republicans doing? Are they waiting? Are the Republicans
Speaker 1: moving to independence? Are they moving to a relative conservative
Speaker 1: like Biden? I don't believe they're going to move to
Speaker 1: a liberal democratic stance? But what are those Republicans doing
Speaker 1: right now that have had it over the indictments?
Speaker 12: The Republicans that are not for the former president are
Speaker 12: just holding their breath, I think, and thinking, Okay, what
Speaker 12: do we do? I mean, Republicans are really good about
Speaker 12: coming home to the party nominee.
Speaker 10: The exception was twenty twenty, But typically.
Speaker 11: Even when there's division, as we saw on twenty sixteen,
Speaker 11: Republicans come home to the nominee and they get out
Speaker 11: the door and they.
Speaker 10: Vote in presidential elections.
Speaker 11: Right now, the question is will anybody, including desantists, come
Speaker 11: up and challenge the president enough to make it worth
Speaker 11: investing in somebody else, either with money or work with
Speaker 11: your votes months from now?
Speaker 10: But essentially I think that's the stance right now.
Speaker 11: Is this person really going to make it like the
Speaker 11: House Republicans already all in on Trump.
Speaker 10: I mean, that's it.
Speaker 11: That game is over so there with Trump, But the
Speaker 11: actual rank and file we have to wait and see
Speaker 11: for six months, you know, when the reality that this
Speaker 11: man will be the nominee again and that he could
Speaker 11: be president again really hits home. Do we see any
Speaker 11: diversion in some of these Republican Party voters?
Speaker 3: And that seems to be what Elaine came Mark of
Speaker 3: Brookings said yesterday that she doesn't think that Donald Trump
Speaker 3: will be the nominee in the end, and that essentially
Speaker 3: people will move away from him as it becomes clear
Speaker 3: that he will not.
Speaker 4: Win the general election.
Speaker 3: From your vantage point, what's sort of the tipping point
Speaker 3: and who is the likely person to emerge at a
Speaker 3: time when yesterday we were talking about Tim Scott and
Speaker 3: how he has become the Wall Street darling in some ways,
Speaker 3: at least when it comes to fundraising.
Speaker 11: Yeah, you know, Elaine's been politics a long time and
Speaker 11: knows what she's talking about.
Speaker 10: But I've shifted.
Speaker 11: I thought you wouldn't get the nomination, and now I
Speaker 11: just don't see enough people getting out the door to
Speaker 11: vote in the primaries coming up six months from now
Speaker 11: to get knock him off.
Speaker 1: His perch.
Speaker 10: I think we have to see the.
Speaker 11: Iowa polls seem to be shifting a little bit. DeSantis
Speaker 11: seems to be gaining some ground. If DeSantis can gain
Speaker 11: a little bit of ground in the next couple of months,
Speaker 11: then he becomes worth a second look for primary voters
Speaker 11: and investors, campaign contributors. So we just have to see
Speaker 11: if he can get any momentum, even if he's losing
Speaker 11: to Trump. Momentum will probably you know, reignite his campaign.
Speaker 10: Then he becomes sort of the obvious option.
Speaker 11: But he's got some real liabilities in the general election
Speaker 11: as well, So I'm not sure the electability factor for
Speaker 11: DeSantis actually you know, gets him over the top and
Speaker 11: defeats Trump and the primary.
Speaker 3: One thing I keep thinking about is that the entire
Speaker 3: pitch for President Biden to run again is that he
Speaker 3: is the only Democratic candidate who could win against Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: This though at a time when his grassroots fundraising is
Speaker 3: really lackluster, He's not getting the small donations that really
Speaker 3: indicate a healthy popular campaign, and his popularity ratings have flagged.
Speaker 3: Does it look less and less likely that he can
Speaker 3: win reelection if he's against anyone except for Trump.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, I think that's the that's a big question, Lisa.
Speaker 11: But you know, when we look at the economy, which
Speaker 11: at the moment seems to be settling it down, and
Speaker 11: the doom and gloom and DIYer predictions seem to be
Speaker 11: diminishing on employment stays relatively low, inflation gets under control,
Speaker 11: a year from now or more than a year from now,
Speaker 11: voters are going to say, Okay, things are pretty good,
Speaker 11: things are pretty stable, and if Trump is the nominee,
Speaker 11: then we go back to chaos. I think that, in
Speaker 11: the end is literally what saves Joe Biden and gives
Speaker 11: him a reelection.
Speaker 7: Wendy Shita, Thank you, Wendy. Wendys you at a brand
Speaker 7: university this morning.
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