1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm pim 2 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: Fox along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day 3 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews 4 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery 5 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P M 6 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 1: L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. 7 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:33,560 Speaker 1: I want to bring in Greg Han. He is the 8 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:36,919 Speaker 1: president and the chief investment officer for Winthrop Capital Management. 9 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:39,559 Speaker 1: They are based in Indianapolis, but he joins us here 10 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: in studio. Greg, thank you very much for being here. 11 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: Let's go right to the idea of leverage loans and 12 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 1: what does the leverage loan market tell you right now? 13 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 1: Right now, the leverage loan market is probably the biggest 14 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 1: source of fear in the bond market. We are on 15 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 1: the front end potentially of a change in the credit cycle, 16 00:00:56,280 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 1: and we expect that to express express itself through the 17 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: leverage loan market. Traditionally it would go through the banking sector, 18 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: but a lot of that's been pushed into the market now. 19 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: So what does that mean? So UM products like business 20 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 1: development corporations and commercial clos um collateralized loan obligations are 21 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: are at they have a different risk profile. They use 22 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: that as their collateral, and if it starts to deteriorate, 23 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 1: we'll see deterioration in those products. But I meant, if 24 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: this is sort of the epicenter of the next problem 25 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,680 Speaker 1: in credit markets, how does that unfold? What does that 26 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 1: look like? It starts with restructuring of the underlying loans. 27 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:36,960 Speaker 1: So the small business that does alone, it's a highly 28 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: leveed loan, UH can't make its its interest payment because 29 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 1: of rising interest rates or covenant breach, and so it 30 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: needs to restructure that loan. If that happens ten times 31 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 1: inside of one of these pooled products, then that that 32 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 1: that's a source of deterioration, and that impacts the products 33 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 1: ability to pass cash flow onto its investor. Having said that, 34 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 1: our current investors getting paid for the risks they're taking. 35 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 1: So I would say, given the increase in volatility that 36 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:09,360 Speaker 1: we're experiencing right now, yes, However, if you look at 37 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: two thousand and eighteen with the low spread volatility and 38 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: low volatility and the the equity market leading up to the 39 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: fourth quarter, then that was really that was really the 40 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 1: question is are really compensated for the risk, and then 41 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 1: I would say, no, it's only when we see increased 42 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 1: volatility and these price adjustments as really the price of 43 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 1: risk readjusting itself in the market place. Right now, now 44 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:30,919 Speaker 1: we look at it and say, yeah, we're we're compensated. 45 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 1: All right, Greg, I want to widen out a little 46 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: bit because you just recently put out your outlook for 47 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 1: next year, and let's just start with the first line. 48 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 1: There's no other way to say it. The financial position 49 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,359 Speaker 1: of the United States is a disaster. So what does 50 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:47,639 Speaker 1: that mean? I mean, are we headed toward an imminent 51 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:51,959 Speaker 1: recession or deterioration? Is it going to happen in the 52 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: first quarter of the fourth quarter? What's your what's your forecast? 53 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: Hear No, So we are not forecasting a recession. We're 54 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 1: forecasting an economic slowdown in the second half of two 55 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:05,359 Speaker 1: thousand nineteen. But that that first sentence was really encapsulated 56 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: a bigger thesis we have that our form of democracy 57 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 1: and our form of capitalism are evolving. That's not a 58 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 1: political statement, it's just for us to really understand how 59 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 1: do you how do you invest in today's market relative 60 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: to years ago? We have to look at it and 61 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 1: say wait a minute, this this this democracy is evolving. 62 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:26,919 Speaker 1: And look what's going on over in Europe with with Italy, Britain, France, Germany, 63 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:30,239 Speaker 1: all of these governments are going through some form of chaos. 64 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 1: Ours is just we've we've spent a lot of money 65 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 1: since the financial crisis to get this economy moving at 66 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 1: a time when we're growing, but we're running huge budget 67 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 1: deficits that all turns into debt. All right, So if 68 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 1: that turns into debt, does it ever have to be repaid? 69 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 1: That is a great question. I I I honestly don't 70 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 1: think it does. I think I'm waiting for Wall Street 71 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 1: to come up with the the vision for how we 72 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: turn all of this into one great, big zero coupon 73 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: bond on the Fed's balance sheet and and it never 74 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 1: becomes a problem. But well, so, Greg, what does this 75 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: mean in terms of how you position your investments? What's 76 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 1: been the biggest change you've made recently to your actual 77 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 1: investing portfolio? So we've made a couple changes. The that 78 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 1: we've been we've been moving this whole period of time 79 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 1: has been the up and quality trade in the bond portfolios. 80 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 1: And um so now we're seeing we're actually seeing just 81 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 1: more opportunities. Spreads widen A lot of this Leasa's technical. 82 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: We expect there was heavy supply coming into December. We 83 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 1: expect that to slow down. But with the increase in 84 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,239 Speaker 1: spread volatility, the decline in interest rates, it spreads widen. 85 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 1: When you say up in quality, does that mean investment 86 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 1: grade over high yield? Does it mean A over triple B? 87 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 1: I mean, what are you talking about. Most of the 88 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: market now is triple B, but it really means that 89 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,160 Speaker 1: we're moving up towards the higher end of triple B 90 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 1: into single A. We like the banking sector. Here's the paradox. 91 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,279 Speaker 1: The yield curve inverts, right, So everyone thinks that banks 92 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 1: should lose money, but remember this is post Glass Stiegel. 93 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:56,919 Speaker 1: Banks have a lot more levers and a lot more 94 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 1: drivers to revenue than they did when all they did 95 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 1: was make loans and and collect deposits. So in a 96 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:06,600 Speaker 1: world where it's post Glass Stiegel, we think this actually 97 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:08,919 Speaker 1: is a period of time for banking upgrades. Given the 98 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 1: increased capital positions and having looked at what's happened to 99 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: bank stocks in the last week, they're all hit new 100 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 1: fifty two week lows. Have you been buying. We've been well, 101 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 1: we've been in the market buying the bank stock, the position, 102 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 1: and we're we're neutral on banks stocks right now, but 103 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 1: we're finding other opportunities. I liken it to kids in 104 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 1: a candy store and Saturday morning cartoons. That sounds pretty good. 105 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for being with us kids in 106 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 1: a candy store. Perhaps for you kids in a guitar store, 107 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 1: but we won't go there. Greg Han is President and 108 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 1: Chief Investment Officer of Winthrop Capital Management, based in Indianapolis, 109 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 1: but joining us here in our eleven three oh studios 110 00:05:46,200 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: in New York, We're gonna stay in the sort of 111 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:09,480 Speaker 1: circle around perhaps the top executive of the United States 112 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 1: that is now landing in the court system, with Russia 113 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: in particular in focus. Let's talk about alleged alleged Russian 114 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 1: operative Maria Maria Boutina, who was not initially cooperating with 115 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 1: federal prosecutors but now is pleading guilty. So let's start 116 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 1: with who is Maria Boutina and why is her guilty 117 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:34,279 Speaker 1: plea important joining us as Richard Khan, managing partner at 118 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:38,359 Speaker 1: eur Asia Advisors in New York, which focuses on Russia 119 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: and and banking in Russia. He has a ton of 120 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 1: experience working in Russia with Russian businesses, Richard, So let's 121 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: start there about Maria Puttina, Well, in terms of who 122 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 1: she is, she has been identified as basically a Russian 123 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: agent who did not disclose herself as such. And uh 124 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 1: she apparently um and will learn more about it was 125 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: being utilized by Russia too, both influence the n A 126 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 1: and its positions, and possibly act as a resource to 127 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: you know, direct funding two different political groups, perhaps through 128 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 1: the n r A. So she is a really a 129 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 1: treasure trove for our security forces in the United States 130 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: to try to figure out how Russia operates in this area, 131 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: the subtlety of their activities with different organizations, the n 132 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 1: r A being the one that's now been identified, but 133 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 1: there may be others. And uh, so she's a very 134 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 1: significant resource for us. What do you believe the Russian 135 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 1: leadership is thinking or feeling based on this news, Well, 136 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: based on that particular news, I'm sure they're pretty unhappy. 137 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 1: They don't want their spycraft to be revealed. I also 138 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 1: think they do not wish people in the United States 139 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 1: to wake up to the level of subtle interference in 140 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 1: our politics and in our institutions. That takes place by 141 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 1: utilizing already existing and embedded organizations to both influenced by 142 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: argument and also through money our political process. UH. In 143 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 1: other words, I think what this is going to lead 144 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 1: to is people recognizing that this huge scandal we're living through, 145 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:35,559 Speaker 1: this nightmare, is not just about Trump and people around him. 146 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: It potentially has far broader implications. So Maria Bottina is 147 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:42,559 Speaker 1: set to plead guilty to conspiring to act as an 148 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: agent of the Kremlin aside from the n R A 149 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: who who has not yet been named, may get kind 150 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 1: of wrapped up in this as more information trickles out. 151 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 1: Given what I've seen in terms of how Russia operates 152 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: in other locations, including within its own country UH, I 153 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 1: would be surprised if we are not UH in the 154 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: US already investigating UH cash flow going through religious institutions. 155 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 1: I think that is a classic device used by Russia. 156 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:21,439 Speaker 1: Religious organizations UM have various special protections in the United States, 157 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 1: very difficult to attack them to get information about them. 158 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 1: These types of charitable organizations and foundations are a prime 159 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 1: resource for UH, for Russian intelligence and other areas, and 160 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 1: it's a It's a very difficult area to uh uh 161 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 1: to fight against because one can always make the argument, look, 162 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 1: you know, we we share the perspectives of Russia on 163 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:50,200 Speaker 1: particular social issues, and so all we're doing is we're 164 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 1: advancing our own agenda. So finding the line between basically 165 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 1: becoming an agent of some sort of Russia in terms 166 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 1: of advancing it's agenda and only advancing, if you will, 167 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: the the value system of a particular organization is not 168 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 1: an easy one to find. That's again why the subtlety 169 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 1: is so effective. Um, and I do think we're going 170 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 1: to find in a long term that that money has 171 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 1: flown through that way. Do you believe that this is 172 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 1: going to complicate the already complicated and fraught relationship between 173 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 1: the United States and Russia? Or is the relationship already 174 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: gone to a point where you know, nothing can make 175 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: it even worse. Well, you know, with the bombers landing 176 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 1: in Venezuela, obviously things can always get worse. Tell people 177 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: about this. This is about aircraft, so a Russian aircraft 178 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 1: that have been transferred to Venezuela that are capable of 179 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:46,960 Speaker 1: carrying nuclear weapons. Sure, this has echo is obviously of 180 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 1: the Cuban missile crisis, when Russia placed nuclear what was 181 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 1: trying to place nuclear weaponry very close to us in 182 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: the Caribbean. This is further away. Venezuela is a lot 183 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 1: further away than Cuba. On the other hand, that they 184 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 1: now have jets that can travel twice the speed of sound. Um, 185 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 1: and so it's never a comfortable thing to have bombers 186 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 1: that are capable of carrying nuclear weapons in such proximity. So, yeah, 187 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: this is Russia's way of one signaling some uh, disappointment 188 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 1: in Trump's view that he wants to withdraw from the 189 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:21,200 Speaker 1: I n F. It's also more directly an analogy to 190 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:25,439 Speaker 1: the situation in Ukraine, where um, from the Russian perspective, 191 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 1: we're interfering in their backyard and we've been supplying weaponry 192 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 1: there and Russians are saying, well, fine, you know we 193 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 1: we can once again come into the Caribbean and let 194 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 1: you know how it feels. I'm wondering, just in light 195 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: of the rising tensions, in the rising awareness of Russia's 196 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: influence in US elections, what does that mean from your 197 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: perspective for the elections? Does that mean that we're actually 198 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: going to be more protected because people are going to 199 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 1: be more aware of these influences. Well, quite honestly, I 200 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 1: am concerned about it. I think there are various levels 201 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: to it. Uh. I do think people are hopefully going 202 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 1: to be more aware that the information that they're receiving 203 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: uh may have been influenced by a non US party. 204 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 1: What type of information just give us a sense. Well, 205 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 1: for example, if they see advertising taking place or messaging 206 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:25,560 Speaker 1: on Facebook or any other social media platforms. Uh, these organizations, 207 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 1: meaning the social media platforms are stepping up and trying 208 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 1: to do more to protect us from that or at 209 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,679 Speaker 1: least identify the sources. But I think people are more 210 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:36,680 Speaker 1: savvy now about the risk of that, So in that 211 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 1: in that one area, I'm a bit more hopeful. Uh. 212 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 1: I do worry that we need to be much more 213 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 1: aggressive and hardening our defensive capabilities at the accounting of votes, 214 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: the registering of votes. UH, Russians or should never be 215 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:58,680 Speaker 1: underestimated in their capabilities when it comes to essentially cyber 216 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 1: crime if if they want to do that. Uh. Obviously 217 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 1: most of defense is trying to get people not to 218 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: want to attack you. But we are in a mode 219 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:11,320 Speaker 1: now where I do view that as an ongoing risk 220 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:14,319 Speaker 1: in our state systems. Many of them are antiquated, and 221 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 1: I'm not confident that the current administration has a particular 222 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 1: incentive to do all it can to harden those assets. 223 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,200 Speaker 1: Give you about twenty seconds. Current business practice as you 224 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:28,680 Speaker 1: know it is it hardened to the point where it 225 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 1: can defend itself and repel attacks from state sponsored cyber attacks. 226 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 1: When when I've seen no, I think it's an ongoing battle. 227 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 1: We see cyber attacks constantly, both from state actors and 228 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 1: perhaps even more uh, you know, frighteningly from non state actors. Certainly, 229 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:48,839 Speaker 1: one thing the Russians are concerned about and want to 230 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 1: talk to us about is safeguarding, for example, nuclear codes 231 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:57,440 Speaker 1: and stockpile of worrying about the non state actors. Uh. 232 00:13:57,679 --> 00:13:59,839 Speaker 1: At least when we're dealing with China and Russia, we 233 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 1: have responsible people we can talk to. Thank you very 234 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 1: much for being one of them. Much appreciated. Richard Kahn 235 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 1: is managing partner for Eurasia Advisors. There's a growing kind 236 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 1: of groundswell of complaint that there was a real estate 237 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 1: law passed at the end of last year that is 238 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 1: basically giving kickbacks to some key political figures joining us now, 239 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:45,960 Speaker 1: as Caleb Melby, financial investigations reporter for Bloomberg News, we 240 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 1: are talking about these opportunity zones. Can you just start 241 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 1: by telling us what those are? When it was passed 242 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 1: and why? Sure? Yeah, they were part of President Trump's 243 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 1: November tax bill. And basically how they work is is UH, 244 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 1: governors get to choose of there are sensibly poor census 245 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 1: tracks um, UH to get a suite of very generous 246 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: tax benefits. And UH. Specifically, if you sell an asset 247 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 1: and you invest the capital gains into one of these zones, UM, 248 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 1: you get to defer your capital gains. If you hold 249 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 1: it for at least seven years, you get up to 250 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 1: a permanent discount on those capital gains. And most importantly, 251 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 1: if you hold the new asset for at least a decade, 252 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: you pay no capital gains on that when you sell. 253 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: So it's a really good deal for people who can 254 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: make this work. UM. But as we and others have 255 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 1: been drilling into what places have been selected, some of 256 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 1: these zones look less poor than others. And of course 257 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 1: there's a lot of people around the President himself who 258 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 1: seemed to be let's just say, early movers to take 259 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: advantage of these designations. Well, yeah, that that's where the 260 00:15:56,000 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: next question is what about the ethical consideration and about 261 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: who gets to participate in these zones and their relationship 262 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: with the lawmakers or the president that had something to 263 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 1: do with all this. Yeah, well that's exactly it. So, 264 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 1: so two people that uh that stick out are Kushner 265 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 1: Companies UM, owned by the family of presidential son in 266 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: law and senior advisor Jared Kushner UM. And then another 267 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 1: early mover is Anthony Scaramucci whose Skybridge Capital is looking 268 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,240 Speaker 1: to take advantage of this as well. When you say 269 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 1: early mover, what do you mean exactly? So, yeah, right now, 270 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 1: Treasury is still finalizing rules for opportunity zones, and a 271 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 1: lot of investors are really scared to make investments based 272 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: solely on what they perceived to be the tax benefits 273 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 1: right now. But to take full advantage of the tax benefits, 274 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: you also need to make your moves before December of nineteen. 275 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: So the fact that people buying large haven't been investing 276 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 1: yet and are still waiting for those rules to come down, 277 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 1: but people who are closer to the administration are making 278 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 1: these moves early while rules are still being finalized is 279 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 1: causing concern for some people, Caleb, Is there any understanding 280 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: as to why the rules have to be so complicated? 281 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,680 Speaker 1: It does seem to harken back to a certain type 282 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 1: of policy making made popular in the nineties nineties and 283 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:24,440 Speaker 1: moving into the early two thousands, where you have these 284 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:28,679 Speaker 1: broad societal problems under investment in poor communities. UM. But 285 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 1: rather than trying to create, UM, some sort of government 286 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:34,640 Speaker 1: programs to grapple with this, we're basically going to try 287 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:38,360 Speaker 1: and incentivize participants in the market to solve these problems 288 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,120 Speaker 1: for us. Just to push back a little bit, has 289 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 1: this idea been floated before President Trump came to office? 290 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 1: In other words, was this something that was a popular 291 00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 1: cause on a bipartisan level earlier? Well, it's certainly. Uh, 292 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:57,359 Speaker 1: It's seen previous iterations. The most recent example to the 293 00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 1: opportunity zone would be enterprise zones that existed beforehand. And yes, 294 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:03,679 Speaker 1: the language that went into the tax bill did have 295 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 1: bipartisan support, so uh, um it was actually UM. One 296 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 1: person who worked really hard to pitch it UM was 297 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 1: Sean Parker, the Facebook investor UM, and he worked closely 298 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 1: with Tim Scott, the Republican Senator from South Carolina. Um. 299 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 1: But then another backer was Corey Booker, the Democratic senator 300 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,679 Speaker 1: from New Jersey. And is it worth noting that any 301 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 1: time you have a tax advantaged investment, in this case 302 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 1: having to do with opportunity zones and real estate, that 303 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 1: ultimately the US taxpayer ends up subsidizing this in the 304 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 1: form of lost tax revenue. Yeah, that's exactly it. And um, 305 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 1: in terms of talking about alleviating poverty spurring investment, um, Uh, 306 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 1: I can tell you We've been talking to a lot 307 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,960 Speaker 1: of developers, a lot of investors, a lot of lawyers. 308 00:18:56,440 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: The the idea of alleviating poverty is uh. I mean 309 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 1: most people want to do Yeah, they want to do it, 310 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:07,399 Speaker 1: but it's it's not what they're they're they're devoting their 311 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 1: energy what they professionally do. But Caleb, I mean, just 312 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:16,480 Speaker 1: to be clear here, the issue is the first mover aspect. 313 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 1: The key is can inside executives or officials represent elective 314 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 1: officials representatives use information that they have, uh, that other 315 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,640 Speaker 1: people do not have to make investments that will inevitably 316 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 1: be lucrative. Well, and again we should be clear. So 317 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:36,680 Speaker 1: so Jared Kushner's lawyers and representatives say he's had nothing 318 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 1: to do with the family business since taking office. Anthony 319 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 1: Scaramucci famously was only part of the administration for ten days. 320 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 1: He's somebody who uh surrounds the White House but is 321 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 1: not part of it. Um so so the idea that 322 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 1: we there's no sense that there's actual like insider information 323 00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 1: is anybody who would listen to the show popularly understands it, 324 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 1: just just so much as a familiarity and a confidence 325 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:07,639 Speaker 1: around the tax advantages with with this aspect of the 326 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 1: tax lock. Thanks very much for being with us. Always 327 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 1: a pleasure, and thanks for explaining all this. Caleb Melby 328 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 1: is our financial investigations reporter for Bloomberg News. You can 329 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,400 Speaker 1: follow him on Twitter as we all do at Caleb Melby, 330 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 1: m E. L. B Y. I want to bring in 331 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 1: Greg Han. He is the president and the chief investment 332 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,959 Speaker 1: officer for Winthrop Capital Management. They are based in Indianapolis, 333 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 1: but he joins us here in studio. Greg, thank you 334 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:49,359 Speaker 1: very much for being here. Let's go right to the 335 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,400 Speaker 1: idea of leverage loans and what does the leverage loan 336 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: market tell you right now? Right now, the leverage loan 337 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 1: market is probably the biggest source of fear in the 338 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 1: bond market. We are on the run end potentially of 339 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 1: a change in the credit cycle, and we expect that 340 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 1: to express express itself through the leverage loan market. Traditionally 341 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:10,719 Speaker 1: it would go through the banking sector, but a lot 342 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,119 Speaker 1: of that's been pushed into the market now. So what 343 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:18,159 Speaker 1: does that mean? So UM products like business development corporations 344 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:24,120 Speaker 1: and commercial clos um collateralized loan obligations are are at 345 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:26,719 Speaker 1: they have a different risk profile. They use that as 346 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,520 Speaker 1: their collateral, and if it starts to deteriorate, we'll see 347 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,159 Speaker 1: deterioration in those products. But I meant if this is 348 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 1: sort of the epicenter of the next problem in credit markets, 349 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 1: how does that unfold? What does that look like? It 350 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 1: starts with restructuring of the underlying loans. So the small 351 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,520 Speaker 1: business that does alone it's a highly leveed loan, UH 352 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: can't make its its interest payment because of rising interest 353 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:51,280 Speaker 1: rates or covenant breach, and so it needs to restructure 354 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 1: that loan. If that happens ten times inside of one 355 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:57,440 Speaker 1: of these pooled products, then that that that's a source 356 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:01,359 Speaker 1: of deterioration and that impacts the products ability to pass 357 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 1: cash flow onto its investor. Having said that our current 358 00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 1: investors getting paid for the risks they are taking. So 359 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:12,200 Speaker 1: I would say, given the increase in volatility that we're 360 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:15,880 Speaker 1: experiencing right now, yes, However, if you look at two 361 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 1: thousand and eighteen with the low spread volatility and low 362 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 1: volatility the equity market leading up to the fourth quarter, 363 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 1: then that was really that was really the question is 364 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 1: are really compensated for the risk? And then I would 365 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,480 Speaker 1: say no, it's only when we see increased volatility and 366 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:32,120 Speaker 1: these price adjustments as really the price of risk readjusting 367 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:35,439 Speaker 1: itself in the marketplace right now, now we look at 368 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:37,880 Speaker 1: it and say, yeah, we're we're compensated. All right, Greg, 369 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 1: I want to widen out a little bit because you 370 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,640 Speaker 1: just recently put out your outlook for next year, and 371 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 1: let's just start with the first line. There's no other 372 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 1: way to say it. The financial position of the United 373 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: States is a disaster. So what does that mean? I mean, 374 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 1: are we headed toward an imminent recession or deterioration? Is 375 00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 1: it going to happen in the first quarter of the 376 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 1: Earth quarter? What's your what's your forecast here? No, so 377 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,400 Speaker 1: we are not forecasting a recession, We're forecasting an economic slowdown. 378 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 1: In the second half of two thousand nineteen. But that 379 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 1: that first sentence was really encapsulated a bigger thesis we 380 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: have that our form of democracy and our form of 381 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,399 Speaker 1: capitalism are evolving. That's not a political statement, it's just 382 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 1: for us to really understand how do you how do 383 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:25,159 Speaker 1: you invest in today's market relative to years ago. We 384 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 1: have to look at it and say, wait a minute, 385 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 1: this this, this democracy is evolving. And look what's going 386 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 1: on over in Europe with with Italy, Britain, France, Germany, 387 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 1: all of these governments are going through some form of chaos. 388 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,640 Speaker 1: Ours is just we've we've spent a lot of money 389 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 1: since the financial crisis to get this economy moving at 390 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 1: a time when we're growing, but we're running huge budget deficits. 391 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 1: That all turns into debt, all right, So if that 392 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,560 Speaker 1: turns into debt, does it ever have to be repaid? 393 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 1: That is a great question. I I I honestly don't 394 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,920 Speaker 1: think it does. I think I'm waiting for Wall Street 395 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 1: to come up with the uh, the vision for how 396 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,120 Speaker 1: we turn all of this into one great, big, zero 397 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,119 Speaker 1: coupon bond on the Fed's balance sheet, and and it 398 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,639 Speaker 1: it never becomes a problem. But well, so, Greg, what 399 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 1: does this mean in terms of how you position your investments. 400 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 1: What's been the biggest change you've made recently to your 401 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 1: actual investing portfolio. So we've made a couple of changes. 402 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 1: The we've been we've been moving this whole period of 403 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:23,480 Speaker 1: time has been the up and quality trade in the 404 00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,919 Speaker 1: bond portfolios, and um so now we're seeing we're actually 405 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,679 Speaker 1: seeing just more opportunities. Spreads widen a lot of this 406 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:33,680 Speaker 1: Leasa's technical. We expect there was heavy supply coming into December. 407 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,280 Speaker 1: We expect that to slow down. But with the increase 408 00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 1: in spread, volatility, the decline and interest rates, it spreads widen. 409 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 1: When you say up in quality, does that mean investment 410 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,720 Speaker 1: grade over high yield? Does it mean a over triple B? 411 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 1: I mean, what are you talking about? Most of the 412 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:48,639 Speaker 1: market now is triple B. But it really means that 413 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 1: we're moving up towards the higher end of triple B 414 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:54,160 Speaker 1: into single A. We like the banking sector. Here's the paradox. 415 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,600 Speaker 1: The Yeld curve inverts, right, So everyone thinks that banks 416 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 1: should lose money, but remember this is post Glass Stiegel. 417 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,239 Speaker 1: Banks have a lot more levers and a lot more 418 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,080 Speaker 1: drivers to revenue than they did when all they did 419 00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 1: was make loans and and and collect deposits. So in 420 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:12,479 Speaker 1: a world where it's post Glass Stiegel, we think this 421 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,120 Speaker 1: actually is a period of time for banking upgrades, given 422 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,679 Speaker 1: the increased capital positions and having looked at what's happened 423 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 1: to bank stocks in the last week, they're all hit 424 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 1: new fifty two week lows. Have you been buying We've 425 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,160 Speaker 1: been while we've been in the market, buying the bank 426 00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:30,000 Speaker 1: stock the position, and we're we're neutral on banks stocks 427 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 1: right now, but we're finding other opportunities. I liken it 428 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 1: to kids in a candy store and Saturday morning cartoons. 429 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 1: That sounds pretty good. Thank you so much for being 430 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,359 Speaker 1: with us kids in a candy store. Perhaps for you 431 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:43,960 Speaker 1: kids in a guitar star, but we won't go there. 432 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,880 Speaker 1: Greg Han is President and Chief Investment Officer of Winthrop 433 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,560 Speaker 1: Capital Management, based in Indianapolis, but joining us here in 434 00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 1: our eleven three oh studios in New York. Thanks for 435 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg an l podcast. You can subscribe 436 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:05,639 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever 437 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:09,200 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter 438 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:13,000 Speaker 1: at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramo wits 439 00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,080 Speaker 1: one before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide 440 00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio