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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of this show.

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Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. Hey guys, we had some scheduling difficulties and

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Speaker 3: Honest is actually probably going to join us sometime next week.

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Speaker 3: There was a little bit of a mixed up with

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Speaker 3: the time, but we did have some breaking news learned

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Speaker 3: add to the show. The new Ayahtola of Iran has

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Speaker 3: actually issued his very first statement. So let's go and

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Speaker 3: put this up here on the screen, and I'm going

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Speaker 3: to read some of the translation, which has come directly

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Speaker 3: from his Twitter feed. So let's start first with this

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Speaker 3: a defiant message. Dear fighter brothers, the desire of the

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Speaker 3: masses is the continuation of the effective and regrets inducing defense. Furthermore,

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Speaker 3: the leverage of blocking the strait of her moves must

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Speaker 3: certainly continue to be used. Studies have been conducted regarding

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Speaker 3: the opening of additional fronts in areas where the enemy

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Speaker 3: has negligible experience and will be highly vulnerable. Their activation

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Speaker 3: will be carried out if the state of the war

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Speaker 3: persists and in accordance with the observance of interests. Specifically,

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Speaker 3: he mentions the Resistance Front and Yemen, obviously making a

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Speaker 3: reference to the who these He says, Undoubtedly, the companionship

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Speaker 3: of the components of the Resistance Front with one another

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Speaker 3: shortens the path to deliverance from the Zionist affliction. Brave

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Speaker 3: and faithful Yemen has not yet ceased defending the oppressed

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Speaker 3: people of Gaza. Has Bullah the devoted has come to

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Speaker 3: the aid of the Islamic Republic despite all obstacles, and

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Speaker 3: the Iraqi Resistance too has boldly pursued the same path.

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Speaker 3: He continues, I assure everyone we will not forego vengeance

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Speaker 3: for the blood of our martyrs. The vengeance that we

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Speaker 3: have in mind is not limited to the martyrdom of

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Speaker 3: the great leader of the revolution. Rather, every member of

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Speaker 3: the nation who is martyred by the u S enemy

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Speaker 3: constitutes an independent subject in the file of vengeance. Only

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Speaker 3: a limited amount of blood revenge for the martyrs has

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Speaker 3: so far taken place, But until it is achieved, this

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Speaker 3: case will remain on the top of all of the cases.

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Speaker 3: The crime that the enemy has deliberately committed regarding the

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Speaker 3: mignab tiab Tree School and other cases holds a special

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Speaker 3: status in the reckoning. We expect reparations from the enemy,

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Speaker 3: and if it refuses, we will continue from its assets

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Speaker 3: as we deem necessary, and if that too proves impossible,

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Speaker 3: we will destroy an equivalent portion of its assets. He continues.

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Speaker 3: The enemy has gradually established bases in some neighboring countries

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Speaker 3: over the years. In the recent offensive, some of those

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Speaker 3: military bases were put to use. We naturally, we have

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Speaker 3: targeted the attacks precisely as we had issued explicit warnings,

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Speaker 3: without making encroachment on these countries themselves, solely striking those bases.

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Speaker 3: The countries of the region must clarify their stance regarding

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Speaker 3: the aggressors against our homeland and the killers of our people.

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Speaker 3: I recommend they shut down those bases as soon as possible,

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Speaker 3: for they must surely have realized by now that America's

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Speaker 3: claim of establishing security and peace has been nothing but

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Speaker 3: a lie. And he finishes leaders. We pledge to you,

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Speaker 3: we will strive with all our being to elevate this flag,

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Speaker 3: the main flag in the front of truth, and to

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Speaker 3: achieve the sacred goals of your excellency. So it makes

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Speaker 3: reference to his father, continues to say that the straits

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Speaker 3: of Hormuz.

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Speaker 1: I think it's incredibly noteworthy.

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Speaker 3: That's the very first thing that he comes out, calls

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Speaker 3: for a closure of American bases, obviously very defiant our

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Speaker 3: reference to the girls' school, and perhaps most importantly, they're

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Speaker 3: not backing down. This is and look, let's note this

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Speaker 3: the Iyatola, this is his first written statement. We don't

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Speaker 3: know his condition. They did acknowledge that he was injured

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Speaker 3: at least some respect. I think they said he had

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Speaker 3: limited facial wounds and may have been minorly injured in

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Speaker 3: the attack. We haven't seen seen his face, we haven't

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Speaker 3: heard his voice. There was at least some reporting that

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Speaker 3: the IRGC pushed very hard for his election, So it

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Speaker 3: is possible that he is some sort of a puppet

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Speaker 3: figure for the IRGC. Regardless, the terms themselves that have

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Speaker 3: been set forth are now the terms ascribed to the

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Speaker 3: leader of Iran. And if the IRGC is fully in

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Speaker 3: control of the nation, this is their position about the

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Speaker 3: Straits of horror moves and continuation of the conflict. So

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Speaker 3: we are in nowhere near any sort of ceasefire. Very

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Speaker 3: defiant message, I will say, it is almost ironic. A

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Speaker 3: friend of mine said something like, took twenty years to

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Speaker 3: replace the Taliban with the Taliban, only took eight days

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Speaker 3: to replace Hamani with honey.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and here we are. He sounds exactly like his.

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Speaker 2: Father, I mean, you know, and the reporting is he

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Speaker 2: may be more belligerents or only the state of mind

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Speaker 2: after seeing your family members murdered and you know, not

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Speaker 2: only do they does he start with we're going to

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Speaker 2: maintain control of the strait up removes it's going to

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Speaker 2: remain shut down, also signaling hey, we're going to you know,

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Speaker 2: we may open up new fronts that we are going

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Speaker 2: to avenge, you know, the deaths of not only our leader,

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Speaker 2: but obvious the little girls that you killed and all

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Speaker 2: of the other In their words, martyrs that have been taken.

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Speaker 2: He also called for the Gulf Arab States to give

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Speaker 2: up their US basis, which was another noteworthy part of

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Speaker 2: this speech, and obviously part of their strategy has been

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Speaker 2: to I think pretty effectively put a lot of pressure

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Speaker 2: on those Gulf States and make them realize, like you

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Speaker 2: thought you were getting protection from the US, this has

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Speaker 2: made you a target. You are now complicit and if

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Speaker 2: there are attacks coming from your you know, from your airspace,

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Speaker 2: we're going to consider that, you know, attack from you,

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Speaker 2: and we're going to respond in kind. So calling for that,

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Speaker 2: also calling for reparations, which I don't think that are

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Speaker 2: going to be a forthcoming from the US. There had

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Speaker 2: previously been reports that you know, their ceasefire conditions included

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Speaker 2: a payment of reparations for the damages that had been

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Speaker 2: done to their country, and so so yeah, to very

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Speaker 2: contrary to the impression that Trump is giving out that

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Speaker 2: you know, they're they're weak, their hobble, they're on their

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Speaker 2: last legs, that we could end this at any time,

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Speaker 2: that this is just a little, you know, excursion, as

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Speaker 2: Trump keeps putting it, a little excursion, But for them,

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Speaker 2: it's a war. Uh, you know, I think this is

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Speaker 2: a paints a very a very different portrait noteworthy, Like

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Speaker 2: you said that he has not yet been seen in public.

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Speaker 2: This statement was read by a news anchor on Ronnie

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Speaker 2: and you know, state aligned media, and so continue to

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Speaker 2: be questions about, you know, how severely he was injured,

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Speaker 2: et cetera.

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Speaker 4: But that's that's where we are.

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Speaker 1: Yep, that's right.

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Speaker 3: And President Trump, I think, did we get this somewhere

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Speaker 3: else in the segment? We're taping this a little bit

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Speaker 3: out of order. I can just read this new message.

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Speaker 3: Missive The United States is the largest oil producer in

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Speaker 3: the world by far, so when oil prices go up, we.

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Speaker 1: Make a lot of money.

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Speaker 3: But our greatest greater interest and importance to me as

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Speaker 3: president is stopping stopping spelled wrong, and even Empire Iran

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Speaker 3: from having nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle East and

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Speaker 3: indeed the world. I won't let that happen. Thank you

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Speaker 3: for your attention to this matter. So, yeah, high gas

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Speaker 3: prices are good for you. Actually, have you seen the

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Speaker 3: Texas Tech corollary to this entire discussion. No, there's a

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Speaker 3: joke that the higher oil prices go that Texas Tech

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Speaker 3: nil money, that they will literally never lose a game

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Speaker 3: again because the oil barons of the Panhandle of Texas

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Speaker 3: will donate becomes so filthy rich, they're going to give

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Speaker 3: all their money to the Texas Tech and Ile Fund,

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Speaker 3: and that the Red Raiders are going to be the

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Speaker 3: best team in the country.

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Speaker 1: So great, apparently that's where things are.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that their profits are going to help

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Speaker 2: you fill your guests.

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Speaker 1: Oh their death of the day. I can tell you

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Speaker 1: who's going to do well.

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Speaker 3: Back to the car dealers of Midland, every Ford f

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Speaker 3: one fifty dealer. There will be casinos and strippers who

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Speaker 3: will all be flying to the Panhandle or any other

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Speaker 3: of these places. Texas Tech, the rest of us are

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Speaker 3: going to be playing about the current gases around ninety

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Speaker 3: something three ninety right now in terms of where if

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Speaker 3: he were to pag it to crude oil feature future.

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Speaker 3: So great, that's apparently, you know, the most winning message

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Speaker 3: midterm message of all time.

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Speaker 1: Insane.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's get to Professor Robert Pape. Joining us

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Speaker 3: now is Professor Robert Pape. He is a professor of

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Speaker 3: political science at the Inner of Chicago, but he is

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Speaker 3: also the author of The Escalation Trap, which is a

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Speaker 3: sub stack where there will be a link down in

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Speaker 3: the description. All of you should go and subscribe right now.

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Speaker 3: Thank you very much for joining us, sir.

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Speaker 1: We appreciate it.

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Speaker 5: Thank you for having.

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Speaker 1: Me absolutely so. Sir.

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Speaker 3: You are an expert, particularly in air power and in

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Speaker 3: what you call the escalation trap. You studied I think

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Speaker 3: every what every US bombing campaign going back all the way.

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Speaker 1: To World War Two, and you've talked.

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Speaker 5: About World War one, World War My books Bombing Wing

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Speaker 5: goes back to World War One. I've spent years teaching

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Speaker 5: for the US Air Force conventional targeting strategy. In particular,

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Speaker 5: I have spent twenty years modeling the bombing of Iran,

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Speaker 5: so this is something I know quite a bit about.

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Speaker 5: I also study economic sanctions, terrorism, so all of that

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Speaker 5: is why I built the escalation Trap. Because those frameworks

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Speaker 5: I've been using for so long for chiefs of staff

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Speaker 5: of the Air Force, for white houses and so forth,

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Speaker 5: I thought really time to bring them to.

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Speaker 3: Everybody, right, which is why you're such an important guest

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Speaker 3: for us. And we do have some latest news Before

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Speaker 3: we get into some of your theory about the escalation trap,

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Speaker 3: we want your reaction to guys. Let's go and put

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Speaker 3: d one up there on the screen. We've now seen

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Speaker 3: an expansion of Iran declaring that US and Israeli economic

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Speaker 3: banking interest in the region are targets. We have seen

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Speaker 3: this now repeatedly, sir, where we've moved from initial military

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Speaker 3: targets to then the striking of either civilian infrastructure by

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Speaker 3: the United States or Israel inside of Iran, now an

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Speaker 3: expansion to the banking sector. So it does appear as

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Speaker 3: if your theory about escalation and airpower continues to spiral

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Speaker 3: as this war now enters what's is thirteenth day now

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Speaker 3: so far, so your reaction to this particular piece.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, this is confirmation of what I've been saying. So

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Speaker 5: when states try to use air power alone to topple regimes,

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Speaker 5: it has never and on Tuesday, my words, carefully, never

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Speaker 5: worked in over one hundred years, and we've tried many,

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Speaker 5: many times. I'm glad to go through the cases, but

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Speaker 5: what you get is often this lash back effect that

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Speaker 5: you're not prepared for because you're overconfident. You think you're

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Speaker 5: going to win quick and decisively, so you don't prepare

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Speaker 5: for the worst cases. And now the worst cases are coming,

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Speaker 5: and so we're always behind. Now what Iran is specifically

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Speaker 5: doing in this lashing back is a horizontal escalation concept.

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Speaker 5: It's actually a concept called parallel attack that we developed

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Speaker 5: in the nineteen nineties in the Air Force to use

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Speaker 5: with precision targeting and so with precision targeting, and they

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Speaker 5: have precision drone. So we're effectively seeing two precision air

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Speaker 5: campaigns collide for the first time in history. So their

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Speaker 5: precision air campaign against US is parallel bombing at the

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Speaker 5: same time multiple nodes, not one at a time like

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Speaker 5: we did in World War Two. They're hitting multiple nodes

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Speaker 5: in a network. They're treating their enemy as a system

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Speaker 5: like we taught in the nineties to treat others as

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Speaker 5: a system. You see, this is what their intel has

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Speaker 5: been scooping up. They've been learning from us and studying

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Speaker 5: how to do this, and now what they're doing is

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Speaker 5: they're widening that horizontal escalation and those nodes. Because the

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Speaker 5: more nodes you can attack at the same time in parallel,

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Speaker 5: the more system shock you produce. So what you are

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Speaker 5: seeing is Trump has triggered a lashing back that is

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Speaker 5: now producing system level shock. This is one of the

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Speaker 5: things I explained, and that system level shock is not

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Speaker 5: just in Iran. It's not even just in the region.

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Speaker 5: It's now going global, and so this is really probably

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Speaker 5: going to go down as the most disastrous air campaign

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Speaker 5: in history. Not quite there yet, but we're heading to

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Speaker 5: major system shock and the panics that everybody's talking about.

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Speaker 5: With trade of horm moves. This is just the beginning here.

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Speaker 5: You see there no, there's no control. The biggest thing

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Speaker 5: I want to say, and then I'll stop, is that

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Speaker 5: we've lost control of escalation. You see. One of the

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Speaker 5: things I'm trying to explain in these writings is that

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Speaker 5: there's the illusion the attacker has control. And now you

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Speaker 5: see each time President Trump says he's about to stop

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Speaker 5: the war, nobody listens anymore. Prices are going up, nobody's

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Speaker 5: paying attention because we all now know, whether we say

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Speaker 5: it or not, he's losing control more and more to

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Speaker 5: Iran and also more and more to the system shock.

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Speaker 5: You see, actors are going their own way, and that's

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Speaker 5: part of the system level shock that is occurring.

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Speaker 2: Well, let me get your reaction to some of what

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Speaker 2: President Trump is specifically saying, because he paints a very

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Speaker 2: different portrait. I would say that what you're painting here

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Speaker 2: for as Professor put D two up on the screen.

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Speaker 4: He spoke with with Axios.

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Speaker 2: He told them in a phone interview yesterday, the war

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Speaker 2: with Iran will end soon because there is practically nothing

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Speaker 2: left to target little this and that. Anytime I want

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Speaker 2: it to end, it will end, he said during the

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Speaker 2: five minute call. What is your reaction to his presentation

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Speaker 2: of how this is all going, Well, this.

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Speaker 5: Is what I call the victory narrative, but it's meeting

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Speaker 5: escalation reality. And the reality is that he's one actor

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Speaker 5: in the system now, but Iran is another actor who's

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Speaker 5: actually driving the escalation pretty strongly. So if he's want

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Speaker 5: to shut this war down, he's got to shut down

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Speaker 5: the attacks on Iran. Well, he's already tried to break Iran.

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Speaker 5: That's not working. So what's he going to give Iran

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Speaker 5: to get them to stop? You See, he had a

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Speaker 5: deal on the table the friday before that he started

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Speaker 5: the bombing. He can't I'd be very surprised and go

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Speaker 5: back to that deal now. And then on top of that,

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Speaker 5: imagine he could even get the Iranians to come back

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Speaker 5: to a third round of negotiators. Keeping in mind we've

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Speaker 5: killed the previous negotiators twice now. But keep in mind,

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Speaker 5: let's say he pulls that out at the How's he

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Speaker 5: going to get Israel to stop killing the leaders the

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Speaker 5: next time? You see? So is he going to slap

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Speaker 5: sanctions on Israel and say you kill more Iranian le

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Speaker 5: So he's got and these are just and I haven't

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Speaker 5: talked about the Gulf States and others and Russia. Oh

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Speaker 5: my goodness, gracious, So as this has become a system

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Speaker 5: level problem, those actors multiply who have control and increasingly

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Speaker 5: more control than the United States. So just imagine I

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Speaker 5: just named Iran, Israel, and Russia that he has to

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Speaker 5: get to call this thing off. How's he going to

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Speaker 5: do that? Exactly? What's the plan here? Again? This is

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Speaker 5: victory narrative. We're in now the midst of escalation reality,

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Speaker 5: and that victory narrative, we're just going to find fewer

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Speaker 5: and fewer people paying any attention. They may listen. Trump

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Speaker 5: loyalists may say they verbalize it, but that's like as

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Speaker 5: if you see, it's not real, and it's we all

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Speaker 5: know that because the prices are going up. And then

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Speaker 5: when the price of the gas is going up, everybody's

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Speaker 5: going to know victory narrative is meeting escalation reality.

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Speaker 1: Very very true.

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Speaker 3: So let's turn to some of your own points here

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Speaker 3: about the risk guys. Can we put his slideshow D

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Speaker 3: four up there on the screen, so you start with

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Speaker 3: multiple risks that we are now seeing energy shock.

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Speaker 1: About twenty percent of the world's oil passes through the

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Speaker 1: strait of Hormoves.

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Speaker 3: If that flow is disrupted even partially, the economic shock

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Speaker 3: would hit obviously the entire globe energy markets watching that.

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Speaker 3: Risk number two is horizontal escalation, which I believe you've

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Speaker 3: just talked about. Risk three is global infrastructure vulnerability. Risk

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Speaker 3: four is military and economic strain, and risk five is

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Speaker 3: strategic distraction. Can you just break some of that stuff

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Speaker 3: down for us so we can get into it.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So what you are seeing is not this disaster

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Speaker 5: that is unfolding is multi dimensional. Now, we've had disasters

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Speaker 5: in the past, but they have been more uni or

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Speaker 5: single dimensional. The reason I'm laying this out in threads

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Speaker 5: here is because the threads allow us to see the

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Speaker 5: different dimensions of the risk and their dimensions like a

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Speaker 5: layer cake that are intersecting in real time. You see

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Speaker 5: and it's becoming and the point on you've laid out

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Speaker 5: the risk, and I'll just mention the point on the distraction.

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Speaker 5: As the risks come together, they overload us, we get overwhelmed. Well,

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Speaker 5: that's why I put out these frameworks in the escalation

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Speaker 5: trap and then tie them to the events that are occurring,

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Speaker 5: because as I have over the years. I started to

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Speaker 5: develop these when I taught for the US Air Force

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Speaker 5: because I saw that the in war in crisis, people

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Speaker 5: are overloaded and that's when the frameworks, believe it or not,

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Speaker 5: become the most important because they need those to make

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Speaker 5: sense of these complex chaos. Otherwise they're just bouncing all

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Speaker 5: around you see. So what you're seeing with that distraction

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Speaker 5: is one of the most difficult challenges right now. It's

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Speaker 5: not just that we have a lot coming in our

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Speaker 5: Twitter feeds, our x feeds. That's not quite it. It's

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Speaker 5: that there's multi dimension So let's break them apart, let's

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Speaker 5: talk about them. Let's see how they're unfolding in stages.

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Speaker 5: The posts I'm about to put out on substack pretty

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Speaker 5: soon after this interview is going to help tie those

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Speaker 5: together so people can see that and then help see

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Speaker 5: where this thing is headache you see, and what is

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Speaker 5: really in front of us now is probably the worst

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Speaker 5: disaster that's unfolding here that's been triggered by airpower, certainly

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Speaker 5: in most of our lifetimes. And we'll see how far

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Speaker 5: this this goes. But it's no longer just President Trump,

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Speaker 5: as I'm saying, Oh yeah, he's just gonna wake up. Well,

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Speaker 5: he can try it. He can announce today right now,

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Speaker 5: this second. You know, Professor Pape, you're wrong. I announced

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Speaker 5: today the war is over. Let's see if it stops

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Speaker 5: the next hour, you see, because it's got all those

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Speaker 5: other actors here, who are are you know? He had

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Speaker 5: chances to stop this in June? He could have negotiated. Uh,

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Speaker 5: he's now touched off the escalation trap. He's in it.

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Speaker 5: It's not it's not something that he controls.

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Speaker 2: And what does the next level of escalation look like?

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Speaker 2: I already have a broadening of the war. Obviously, the

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Speaker 2: the GCC countries have been hit pretty significantly. They seem

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Speaker 2: quite upset Israel's getting hit. They're they're saying they may

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Speaker 2: set up some positions in the Horn of Africa. We have,

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Speaker 2: you know, reported involvement of the Russians and the Chinese.

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Speaker 2: What does the next level of escalation.

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Speaker 5: Look like the next level is going to be about

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Speaker 5: the dispersal of the enriched uranium that you're hearing quietly,

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Speaker 5: you know, these briefings on Capitol Hill, the senators coming

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Speaker 5: out ash and face and so forth. We have They

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Speaker 5: have to keep in mind that for twenty five years,

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Speaker 5: not just Donald Trump, this whole crisis with militarized crisis

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Speaker 5: with Iran has been about Iran's enriching uranium. Well, they

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Speaker 5: have one thousand pounds of sixty percent enriched uranium that

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Speaker 5: was in Fordeaux Natons, Esefon other places. And when Trump

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Speaker 5: bombed that in June, he destroyed buildings and functioning of buildings.

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Speaker 5: He didn't get that enriched uranium. And we have satellite

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Speaker 5: photography of likely the dispersal of that material, and that's

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Speaker 5: on my substack. So people can go and watch a video.

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Speaker 5: They do have to subscribe, it's free, but you can

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Speaker 5: see the actual satellite photography of this. And we also

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Speaker 5: have more photography from satellites and this is civilian satellites,

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Speaker 5: by the way, in February in Stefon. So this is

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Speaker 5: now happening, you see, and it's coming out prisident Trump

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Speaker 5: himself a couple of days ago in one of his discussions,

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Speaker 5: mentions this dispersal happening. This is very worrisome that material

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Speaker 5: can be yes down the road fashioned into bombs, but

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Speaker 5: it can be used for radiological weapons. So imagine that's

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Speaker 5: sprinkled on those cones of some of those precision drones

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Speaker 5: going into doa how you know we already you know,

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Speaker 5: when's the next time a billionaire is going to show

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Speaker 5: up there? So you end up with So there's a

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Speaker 5: lot of real capability here that Iran has not used yet.

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Speaker 5: And this image of Iran as a beaten down, you know,

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Speaker 5: tiny little, you know, pipsqueak of a country with no

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Speaker 5: capability that we've been hearing for years. This has never

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Speaker 5: been true. Okay, So what's happening is Iran is is

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Speaker 5: a fairly strong country, ninety two million. It's, as you reported,

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Speaker 5: exporting oil when the rest of the world can just

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Speaker 5: think about this for a moment. So they have a

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Speaker 5: lot of capability here yet to go. And this is

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Speaker 5: where the real dangers down the road. We're only at

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Speaker 5: the beginning of the dangerous part of the escalation trap.

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Speaker 3: Professor I am very worried about the breaking of a

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Speaker 3: nuclear taboo, not necessarily just in the use of a

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Speaker 3: tactical nuclear weapon, but an atmospheric nuclear test. Where would

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Speaker 3: that fit into your escalation line, am I.

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Speaker 5: I'm going to be writing, Yeah, so I give lectures

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Speaker 5: on this. So again this is something this is now

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Speaker 5: going to come forward. I will put these as lectures online,

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Speaker 5: So every two weeks for some part of my substec,

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Speaker 5: I do these video briefings now and so we can

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Speaker 5: talk about these serious issues. So what people have been

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Speaker 5: saying is Iran will is so radical irrational that what

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Speaker 5: they're going to do is they're going to fashion a

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Speaker 5: bomb and the very first thing they're going to do

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Speaker 5: is they're going to drop one on tel Avision and

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Speaker 5: maybe a second one on New York here, and then

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Speaker 5: what this is is an image of Iran. They're painting

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Speaker 5: an image of an irrational state that spasmodically reacts without thinking.

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Speaker 5: That's not what Iran has been doing for twenty five years.

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Speaker 5: So I'm not trying to paint them as ten feet tall.

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Speaker 5: But they've been pretty strategic. I would say give them

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Speaker 5: at least a B plus if not an A. So

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Speaker 5: they've been pretty strategic and how they've behaved, and what

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Speaker 5: you would do with nuclear weapons is the very first

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Speaker 5: thing is you don't just set off when you have one.

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Speaker 5: You want to follow the North Korea pattern, which is

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Speaker 5: you want many nuclear weapons. Notice North Korea has got

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Speaker 5: sixty plus nuclear weapons, and we're suddenly saying that, well, okay,

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Speaker 5: we're not going to tickle that tiger. Well that Iran

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Speaker 5: saw that, so Iran is what that's why in their

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Speaker 5: material that all that material, that thousand pounds and all

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Speaker 5: of every thing I'm describing, that's enough for between ten and

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Speaker 5: sixteen bombs. So what iron really wants, if they're going

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Speaker 5: to go to the nuclear route, is not one bomb.

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Speaker 5: They want five or six bombs, because the very first

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Speaker 5: use of that bomb is probably going to be quote

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00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 5: a test, and then what are we going to say.

434
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,640
Speaker 5: We're going to say, oh, that's not good enough. They

435
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 5: only had one. They only had one, so then they're

436
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 5: going to have to do a second test, probably on

437
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 5: their own territory. Once they do two, they're not going

438
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 5: to need to do three or four, and people are

439
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 5: going to panic and then how how and then we're

440
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 5: going to see the real consequences of what's occurring here.

441
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:43,360
Speaker 5: You see so the way to understand this is the

442
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 5: politics of strategy, the politics of escalation. That's my forte.

443
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 5: So I taught the best pilots in the Air Force.

444
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 5: Those folks weren't coming to me and learn how to

445
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 5: put a bomb on a target. They want to know

446
00:23:56,320 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 5: when they're generals and they're four star generals, chief of staff,

447
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 5: what's going to happen here after the moms hit the target?

448
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 5: You see? And that's why quite a few folks. I've

449
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 5: even received emails here from my former military students saying,

450
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,360
Speaker 5: my god, professor Pape, you were teaching this twenty years ago.

451
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 5: Here you must be hitting your head about what's occurring,

452
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 5: because it's unfolding just as you told us it was

453
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 5: going to unfold in your frameworks. And they're appreciating now

454
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:30,639
Speaker 5: those frameworks are becoming more available so people can understand this.

455
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 5: And that's why I think you saw in the military

456
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,679
Speaker 5: being much more reluctant to get on this board with

457
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 5: regime change. You saw that, right, there's a gap here.

458
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 5: And the military they're very professional. They're going to do

459
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:49,400
Speaker 5: what they are ordered to do. They will give advice,

460
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 5: but if the president says that's all fine, and good,

461
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 5: But I'm going to ignore your advice. They will They

462
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 5: will do that because they are professionals, they are loyal

463
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:02,680
Speaker 5: to the constitution. Is they see it here. But that's

464
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 5: the real nager, sir, so I hope I explained that

465
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 5: this is where the scariness here could get worse. And

466
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 5: we have big midterms coming up, So why wouldn't they

467
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 5: time this around the midterms? I mean that would really

468
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,719
Speaker 5: just think about what that would do for Trump's They

469
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 5: really the soft under belly that we know and our

470
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:27,199
Speaker 5: enemies know is our politics. That's why they've gone the

471
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 5: long war strategy. And what you're seeing is they're having

472
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 5: all different dimensions of the long war and more and

473
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 5: more Trump is looking like Lyndon Johnson in Vietnam where

474
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 5: he just lost control.

475
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:40,120
Speaker 4: Wow.

476
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 2: And my last question for you is there's been a

477
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 2: bunch of reporting about how Israeli interesting goals may diverge

478
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,640
Speaker 2: from US interesting goals, and I'm curious your thoughts on that.

479
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 4: And also, you.

480
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 2: Know, while while you see this as going catastrophically for

481
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 2: the US, is it going catastrophically for Israel? Because it

482
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:02,919
Speaker 2: seems to me that you know, just having Iran's capabilities degraded,

483
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 2: and the possibility of you know, sort of chaos on

484
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:10,199
Speaker 2: the ground in Iran serves Israeli interests fairly well. And

485
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 2: certainly it's been a goal of Theirs for a long

486
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 2: time to get us in the Gulf States, et cetera,

487
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 2: and broiled directly in this war.

488
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I want to separate what Israel and Nanya,

489
00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 5: who may think their interests are, and I understand they

490
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 5: have the right to define their own interests from what

491
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,959
Speaker 5: I think is their actual security interests. And what I

492
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 5: think is happening here is that Israel's security is getting

493
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 5: worse with the passage of time, not better. And I

494
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 5: think they too have been mesmerized by the hyperaccuracy of

495
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 5: precision weapons. They can bomb targets and so forth, and

496
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 5: then they can actually destroy buildings with precision weapons. As

497
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,400
Speaker 5: you're seeing, they've learned in Gaza that you can actually

498
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:57,160
Speaker 5: mass coordinate those bombs and say you're not targeting civilians

499
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 5: while you wreck the civilian infrastructre sure for anybody to

500
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:04,199
Speaker 5: live anywhere. So they they're they're learning this. But the

501
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 5: bottom line is that this is those things I'm talking about, Like,

502
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 5: let's just pick the nuclear the dispersal of nuclear material.

503
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 5: Trump's bombing of Frudeau did not contain the nuclear problem

504
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 5: and Iran. It triggered the dispersal of nuclear material. And

505
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 5: as that material disperses, that's a danger, not just to America.

506
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 5: That's not just a danger to say Basra, that's a

507
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 5: danger to Tel Aviv as well. And what is now

508
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 5: who exactly going to do here? You know, are they

509
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 5: Are they seriously going to put ground troops in? Are

510
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 5: they seriously going to think about nuclear escalation? I mean,

511
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,399
Speaker 5: this is the kind of things you got to scratch

512
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 5: your head and say, what are they actually thinking? Because

513
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 5: this dispersal of this material, None of those options are

514
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:52,959
Speaker 5: guaranteed to to protect. So this this really is not,

515
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 5: i would say, in Israel's interest. But they've got their

516
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 5: stated views and and they may disagree. And as they disagree,

517
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 5: then the real divergence here is between their stated or

518
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 5: thinking and the actual reality that they are facing. That's

519
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 5: the real issue here.

520
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 3: Well, last question for you, Storty. He said, this is

521
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 3: close to the most disastrous campaign. What is the most

522
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 3: disastrous campaign?

523
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, the most disastrous campaign was probably Bill Clinton's campaign

524
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 5: in March nineteen ninety nine, when he had a three

525
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 5: day bombing campaign. He thought it would be three days

526
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:32,120
Speaker 5: to hit fifty one regime targets in and around Belgrade,

527
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 5: including Melosvic, the leader's home. Now, the idea was to

528
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 5: wreck the crony regime of Melosovic. We had this model

529
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 5: of cronyism in Serbia. And what happened was that triggered

530
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 5: a lashing back where Melosovic sent thirty thousand troops in

531
00:28:54,120 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 5: a horizontal escalation way to cleanse a million, nine hundred

532
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 5: and eighty thousand coase of our civilians from Kosovo. That's

533
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 5: fifty percent of the of the population. Now what do

534
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 5: we have here comparing that so far? We have fifty

535
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 5: thousand Americans who've run away, So that's not a million

536
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 5: whove run out of the region, but still that's fifty thousand.

537
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 5: And as time goes on, the economic consequences here are

538
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 5: going to meet reach not just millions, but probably hundreds

539
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 5: of millions of people. That's only at the beginning stages now,

540
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 5: so that's why I say we're entering that. But if

541
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 5: you know, this goes on for three or four weeks,

542
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 5: as it well could, and and we're going to discover

543
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 5: that putting out those oil reserves are one time, you

544
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 5: use it once and it's gone, And then that's all

545
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 5: going to start to get priced into everything. As those

546
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 5: price surges continue to go up in by April, you're

547
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 5: going to start to see the real pain come in

548
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 5: and it's and it's going to start to make Kosovo

549
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 5: look like a small hill. So this is where we're

550
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 5: really heading. And notice we haven't even talked about the

551
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 5: most scary stuff that we were just talking about before.

552
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 5: So so as you as this thing unfolds, we need

553
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 5: to understand that we're really really have have touched off

554
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 5: the escalation trap in a way. And and the biggest

555
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 5: problem is that President Trump just is losing control and

556
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 5: he's going to try to get the control back. But

557
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 5: so too did Lyndon Johnson said, we.

558
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 1: Can call it.

559
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 5: It's the LBJ trap. It's the same. This is the

560
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 5: same LBJ didn't think he was going to lose I

561
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 5: guarantee you didn't wake up and one day and say, oh, yeah,

562
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 5: how can I actually become probably the worst president uh

563
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 5: in history and then beg for other presidents to come

564
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 5: in like Jimmy Carter, so for it to bail them out.

565
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 5: I mean, this is really they don't wake up that way.

566
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 5: I guarantee you what they're waking up is they're there,

567
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 5: I think, mesmerized by this illusion of control of escalation.

568
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 5: And you even hear and Trump saying when will Iron

569
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 5: reach the breaking point? That was exactly the rhetoric of

570
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 5: lb J. How can we break the back of the

571
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 5: North Vietnamese? And that search for the breaking point? There's

572
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 5: actually articles with those titles the search for the breaking point,

573
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 5: you see, and that language. I mean, I don't think

574
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 5: Trump probably went back to the speeches of LBJ. This

575
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 5: is the reality of the frameworks. The frameworks force this,

576
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 5: you see, and so that's why those frameworks matter.

577
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, he's out right now saying that oil high

578
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 2: oil price is actually good for the US. So I

579
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 2: think your point about how people are not gonna be

580
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 2: listening to him. They have their own interests when they

581
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 2: see those prices.

582
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, we're just we're just eating. But you know we eat.

583
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 5: You know, we're eating three meals a day and most

584
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 5: of us probably should just be having one. And boy,

585
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 5: that's gonna be No, this isn't gonna work.

586
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,239
Speaker 3: Great tactic, sir, Thank you so much for joining US

587
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 3: escalation trap substack Lake is down in the description. Also, I

588
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 3: just ordered your book on Amazon while you were talking.

589
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 3: Oh my God, is on my way to my house,

590
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 3: and I'll do a review here on the show.

591
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 5: Well, and I really appreciate what you're doing for the

592
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 5: country here to kind of bring these frameworks out so

593
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 5: they can see that there's some some way to understand

594
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 5: what's happening to us.

595
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 1: It's our honor.

596
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's our privilege, and we hope you'll join us again.

597
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely, thank you very much, my pleasure.

598
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 2: So guys, we're getting some new video out of Israel

599
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 2: showing a significant hesbola attack on northern Israel. Can put

600
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 2: these images up on the screen. These are fairly extraordinary.

601
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 2: Of course, it's pretty rare to get any sort of

602
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 2: video out of Israel because they have severe censorship. And

603
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 2: you can see the significance of this attack. I mean,

604
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 2: some of these are being intercepted and some of them

605
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 2: are clearly striking targets in the area. You know this

606
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 2: after the the idea that I've been projected, I think

607
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 2: that the Israelis maybe even believe that Heswel had been

608
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 2: severely degraded after their top leadership had been taken down

609
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 2: after the infamous Deeper attack, and yet clearly here they

610
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 2: are able to fully join this war in a way

611
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 2: that is fairly sophisticated. And at the same time, it

612
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 2: appears that the Iron Dome is failing to intercept a

613
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 2: sizeable number of the missiles at this point that are

614
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 2: being fired towards Israel. We can put this next one

615
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 2: up on the screen. This is pretty extraordinary. This reporter

616
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 2: says that the Iron Dome could not stop about half

617
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 2: of the one hundred rockets that Hesbel launched at Israel

618
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 2: just a few hours ago. We can also put three

619
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 2: up on the screen. How Retz has some reporting about

620
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 2: the quote unquote whole in Israel's early warning system and

621
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 2: its missile defense batteries are at risk as well, and

622
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 2: so basically what this article lays out in detail is

623
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 2: that when you have these missile defense systems, they also

624
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 2: have to be protected, and so that has created tremendous

625
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:06,719
Speaker 2: vulnerability and obviously Sagur it has been a strategy of

626
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 2: Iran to target these defense systems and they've been pretty effective,

627
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 2: at least at our batteries in the region in effectuating

628
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:17,799
Speaker 2: that Tigan that's why we had to pull the fad

629
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 2: battery system from South Korea and bring it over because

630
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 2: some of the damage that had been incurred. And so

631
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 2: their strategy was to take out those capabilities or degrade

632
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 2: those capabilities early, and then that would enable them to

633
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 2: be able to strike stronger blows using fewer rockets, missiles

634
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 2: and drones, et cetera. And based on what we can

635
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 2: see in terms of the degrading capability of the rocket

636
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 2: air reception here from the Iron Dome, that strategy seems

637
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 2: to be working fairly successful.

638
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 3: Let's put E four just to give you an example.

639
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 3: This is from the Jerusalem Post. So again everything we're

640
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:55,240
Speaker 3: showing you is from Israeli media. After eleven days of fighting,

641
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 3: Israel has received nine thousand missile damage claims, six thousand

642
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:03,440
Speaker 3: and five hundred buildings, one forty four contents and equipment,

643
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 3: four hundred and eighty five vehicles. So that is just

644
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 3: the private claims now so far that does not factor

645
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 3: in the has Bulah attack that just happened yesterday. Keep

646
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 3: in mind also that this now means an opening of

647
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 3: the front with Lebanon.

648
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 1: Let's put E five up there.

649
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 3: On the screen. I can talk a little bit over it.

650
00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 3: These are some of the strikes that were happening all

651
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 3: across Lebanon in immediate retaliation. Immediate reports out of Israel,

652
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 3: at least some said that only about fifty percent or

653
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 3: so of those rockets were even intercepted by the Iron Dome.

654
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:39,959
Speaker 3: Combined that with what Crystal just talked about in terms

655
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 3: of the holes in the targeting system, so they are

656
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 3: now being struck in a coordinated attack by Hesbolah and

657
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 3: by Iran. Also, the fact is is that it clearly

658
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 3: has Bullah has much more strength than they let on.

659
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,800
Speaker 3: Remember the Pager attack and the war and often bombing

660
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,799
Speaker 3: that they had launched. Now what this shows is not

661
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 3: only their strength but the retaliation that Israel is now

662
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:06,360
Speaker 3: going for. And already they're basically doing the Israeli playbook

663
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 3: floating ethnic cleansing.

664
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:09,800
Speaker 1: It's right there on the It's on the books.

665
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's put six up on the screen.

666
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,800
Speaker 2: This is i'm At Siegal, who is a regime propagandist

667
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 2: in Israel, closely tied to the government, and what he

668
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 2: is saying is quote, what needs to be done in

669
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 2: Lebanon is very simple. Advance to Latani River and announce

670
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:28,759
Speaker 2: we will not leave until Hesbela is disarmed. But this time,

671
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 2: unlike the old security zone, not a single resident returns

672
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:37,240
Speaker 2: aka ethnic cleansing, and at the same time a severe

673
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 2: and devastating strike on Dahia. So this is the you

674
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 2: know what is being floated and very much you know,

675
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,360
Speaker 2: part of the greater Israel project. This would be you know,

676
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:51,120
Speaker 2: accomplishing some of their additional goals. I think Sagra made

677
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,800
Speaker 2: the point earlier. Part of why we're getting that video

678
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:56,800
Speaker 2: out of Israel's being allowed out of the rocket attacks

679
00:36:56,840 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 2: from Hesbola is to try to justify exactly this type

680
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 2: of military incursion and takeover and ultimately, you know what's

681
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 2: being floated here is in ethnic cleansing, removing all of

682
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:12,360
Speaker 2: the existing residents and not allowing them to return, and

683
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:16,719
Speaker 2: the facto taking over more territory in the region. That

684
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 2: is what they're trying to use this war as cover

685
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,879
Speaker 2: to do. So you know, they're they're taking damage, they're

686
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 2: also using the opportunity and in an attempt to further

687
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:28,840
Speaker 2: some of their greater regional goals.

688
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:32,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, and you actually literally as we were taping,

689
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 3: I can read the latest from Amid Segal and the IDF.

690
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 3: The IDF spokesperson has now directed all residents of southern

691
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 3: Lebanon to move beyond a border checkpoint, which is a

692
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 3: river inside southern Lebanon. So, I mean, I don't know

693
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 3: what the population is, probably a lot, right, and basically

694
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 3: a evacuation order aka Gaza level one. And as he

695
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 3: floated there, we're going to tell them to leave and

696
00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 3: that you're never going to come back until we dismantle

697
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 3: all of Hesbolah and oh and actually that's basically an

698
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 3: impossible task. And so that will mean that we're just

699
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,799
Speaker 3: get to take over and annex to facto annex in

700
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 3: another part of another country. And this is all happening

701
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 3: under our auspices. It also shows you the same may

702
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 3: Professor Pape talked about about their actual security interest.

703
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:18,839
Speaker 1: Now they're fighting a war with Iran. Now they're fighting

704
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:19,719
Speaker 1: a war with Hezbollah.

705
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 3: They're fighting a war or they're technically anx like parts

706
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 3: of Syria. They're literally on a seven front war. What

707
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 3: is the eighth front? It's the United States, the propaganda

708
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 3: war against people like us. You are watching them expand

709
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 3: in territory at this very moment. But also they can't

710
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,400
Speaker 3: do any of this without the explicit backing of the

711
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 3: United States, and you already see holes in their military interceptors.

712
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 3: And the longer this goes on leads you to what

713
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:47,799
Speaker 3: Professor Pape talked about, the escalation trap and what they

714
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 3: may not have any interceptors, but what do they have?

715
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 1: Nuclear weapons?

716
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 3: They have ground forces which could invade Lebanon, They can

717
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 3: pressure the United States to continue going and you know,

718
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 3: all in with our entire mil military. That's the really

719
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 3: scary part about watching this happen.

720
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, that's absolutely the case. And I mean with

721
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 2: regard to Israel, right the whole raison deetra is to

722
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 2: be a safe haven for Jews. How safe is this

723
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 2: haven right now? I mean, you know, shut Child has

724
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:19,240
Speaker 2: been talking about how many how many people in Israel

725
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 2: have been leaving the country have been you know that

726
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 2: there are a level of out migration is really significant because, yeah,

727
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,279
Speaker 2: you want to be in a bomb shelter every you know,

728
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 2: every other month you're having to huddle with your family

729
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 2: in a bomb shelter and have sirens go off and

730
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 2: Tel Aviv and worry about your apartment building being struck

731
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 2: or your car being destroyed or what you know, or

732
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 2: God forbid you, you know, losing your your life, for

733
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 2: your children being threatened, et cetera. So, of course, a

734
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 2: lot of a lot of normal people who are not

735
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 2: down with the like you know, hardcore religious end times

736
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 2: and the Greater Israel project and the whole bit, they're

737
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 2: gonna say, okay, we're we're out of here there, you know,

738
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 2: We're going to go to greener pastures. So I think

739
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 2: that is absolutely the case. But there's I also want

740
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 2: to be really clear, the population of Israel.

741
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 4: Is fully on board with this war.

742
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 2: I mean, I said, the polling year is you know,

743
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 2: overwhelming opposition in Israel. It's like eighty seven percent that

744
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 2: are oh yeah, absolutely in favor of this war.

745
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:14,879
Speaker 4: With the run.

746
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 2: Netanyahu is not an outlier, his government is not an outlier.

747
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:22,799
Speaker 2: They are representative of the wishes of the people of Israel. So,

748
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:25,759
Speaker 2: you know, so this is the direction they're going to

749
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 2: continue to push in. And I think it, you know,

750
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 2: once again demonstrates the divergence between the global goods or

751
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 2: even the US good and what the Israelis want. Yet

752
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:36,839
Speaker 2: they seem to be very effective at getting their way.

753
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 5: Yep.

754
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 3: So don't let this go unnoticed. We've got a full

755
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:43,439
Speaker 3: blown you know, ethnic possible ethnic cleansing. Watch right here

756
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 3: happening again now in Lebanon. It's going to be crazy.

757
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 3: It's going to tie them down, it's going to escalate

758
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 3: stuff for us. They're going to lean even more heavily

759
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:52,400
Speaker 3: on us to give them more types of weapons or

760
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 3: who knows, and unleash what else potentially on Iran is

761
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 3: some sort of retaliation really pay close.

762
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:00,760
Speaker 4: To you, Yeah, and has Willa surprise fierce?

763
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 5: Yeah.

764
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 2: I think for for everybody, I did not know that

765
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 2: they continued to maintain this level of capacity and so

766
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 2: yet another you know, factor that was not anticipated, because

767
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:14,839
Speaker 2: when you have Iran and Hezbola striking inside Israel at

768
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 2: the same time, that is going to overwhelm their.

769
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:20,279
Speaker 3: Because the narrative was we already dealt with Hesbola with

770
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 3: the Pagrier attack. Were finished, We're over, it's done, and

771
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 3: so we're going to win out. We're just fighting with her.

772
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 1: Oh oops. All of a sudden, one hundred rockets come over.

773
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 3: And you're like, uh, okay, this is not good, you know,

774
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 3: and turns out not nearly as depleted as we thought.

775
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 3: I also think Hesbola is not stupid. They knew they

776
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 3: were under immense pressure from the Lebanese government to not

777
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,839
Speaker 3: do anything like this. But for them, they're like, look,

778
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 3: if Iran gets wiped out, then we're going to get

779
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 3: wiped out one way or the other. We're going to

780
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:46,920
Speaker 3: lose our benefactor and or they're going to come and

781
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:49,359
Speaker 3: they're going to get us next. So it's existential. We've

782
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 3: got to fight to the death. So we have multiple

783
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 3: people now fighting to the death on this front. And

784
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 3: you know, don't underestimate them. Look at what they did

785
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 3: in Syria, real battle tested force. A lot of them

786
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 3: are willing to die. So yeah, I'm just an another

787
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 3: front that's opened here in the war. Okay, let's get

788
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 3: to California and the drone threat turning down to a

789
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:10,800
Speaker 3: very strange incident, which we have to keep you all updated.

790
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 3: So there's this big piece of news from ABC that

791
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 3: broke yesterday. Let's put it up here on the screen.

792
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:17,920
Speaker 1: What do we have? We have?

793
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:24,320
Speaker 3: The FBI is warned that Iran aspired to attack California

794
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:28,319
Speaker 3: with drones in retaliation for the war. The warning came

795
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 3: in a bulletin that was sent to police departments in

796
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 3: recent days that Iran could retaliate for American attacks by

797
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 3: launching drones at the West Coast. We recently acquired information

798
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 3: as of early February twenty twenty six, Iran allegedly aspired

799
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:45,359
Speaker 3: to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from

800
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 3: an unidentified vessel off the coast of the US homeland,

801
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 3: specifically against unspecified targets in California, in the event that

802
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:56,800
Speaker 3: the US conducted strikes against Iran. We have no additional

803
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:59,880
Speaker 3: information on the timing, method, target or perpetrators of the

804
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 3: alleged attack. Obviously a lot of hackles were raised at

805
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:08,880
Speaker 3: that one. What exactly is going on here? Is it

806
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 3: a way to try and inspire fear in the American

807
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 3: public in order to try and support some of what's

808
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 3: going on right now with the war and local police

809
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:22,799
Speaker 3: and others, including those briefed on the matter. Let's put

810
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 3: F three please up on the screen. LAPD sources this

811
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 3: from Fox News, by the way, just to show you

812
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 3: how little credence that even these people are giving it.

813
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 3: They say I've talked to today say there is not

814
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,799
Speaker 3: a no incredible drone threat and this may fall under

815
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 3: the general death to America umbrella, So not really something

816
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 3: that was worth I think a full blown bulletin to

817
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:43,280
Speaker 3: the LAPD.

818
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:45,760
Speaker 1: Let's think about logistics here at Crystlin.

819
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 3: So the current range I believe of the drone would

820
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 3: make it so that what is it like three to

821
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:57,600
Speaker 3: four times anything that is even in their theoretical maximal range.

822
00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 3: For their longest range drone that they may have, they

823
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:03,760
Speaker 3: would have to put it on a unmanned aircraft carrier,

824
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 3: which would have to sail thousands of nautical miles to

825
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:13,400
Speaker 3: off the coast of California, so via, you know, across

826
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 3: various different sea channels and other things which are highly monitored,

827
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:18,879
Speaker 3: and then it would have to take off from said

828
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:23,280
Speaker 3: carecraft carrier, unmanned carrier allegedly, and then come and hit

829
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:24,799
Speaker 3: a site in California.

830
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 1: Just personally a little skeptical of that, Yeah.

831
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:28,919
Speaker 4: I would say so, I would say.

832
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 5: So.

833
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:33,280
Speaker 2: There was another uncorroborated report, they say, from twenty twenty

834
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:39,400
Speaker 2: five that suggested unidentified Mexican cartel leaders had authorized attacks

835
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 2: using drones carrying explosives against US law enforcement.

836
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:45,760
Speaker 4: They said this type of attack against US.

837
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:48,279
Speaker 2: Personal or interest inside the US would be unprecedented, but

838
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 2: exemplifies a plausible scenario, although cartels typically avoid actions that

839
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 2: would result in unwanted attention or responses from US authorities. Again,

840
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 2: think of how nonsensical this is. You think the Mexican

841
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 2: cartels want to start a war or like, you think

842
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 2: that's going to go well with them, You think that's

843
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 2: an intelligent scenario. So they're clearly trying to jin up

844
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 2: all of these, you know, frightful scenarios of what could unfold,

845
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:12,800
Speaker 2: and they've got the sequencing all wrong here, Soccer. You

846
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 2: got to manufacture the consent before the war starts. You

847
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 2: gotta do the false flag before you get into this thing.

848
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:21,359
Speaker 2: You got to generate all the fear and the anxiety

849
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 2: and the oh my god, they're like terrible people who

850
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,760
Speaker 2: are coming to attack California. You gotta do that before

851
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 2: you launch the war, guys, because now it just reads

852
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:32,120
Speaker 2: as like, Okay, well, if there's all this risk, why

853
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:34,800
Speaker 2: are you doing this, Why are you creating more risk?

854
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 2: How is this creating any sort of like sense of

855
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 2: safety for the American people. No, Instead, what you're doing

856
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 2: with these, you know, fake bulletins is establishing that what

857
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:47,240
Speaker 2: you have done in the Middle East is just creating.

858
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 4: Actually more risk and more danger.

859
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 2: For Americans here and broad I mean, I don't put

860
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 2: any stock there's all this like Iranian sleepercell conversation now too.

861
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:57,759
Speaker 2: I don't put any stock in that as well either.

862
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:00,800
Speaker 2: But it is true that we're making a lot of

863
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 2: people around the world absolutely hate our guts. We just

864
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 2: murdered one hundred and sixty eight school children. How do

865
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:08,399
Speaker 2: you think that you know their parents feel about us now?

866
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:10,239
Speaker 2: How do you think that they're siblings so we're going

867
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 2: to grow up? How do you think they're going to

868
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 2: feel about us now? How do you think all of

869
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:17,759
Speaker 2: the orphans in Gaza or the children who are amputees

870
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 2: now largest amputee population in the world in Gaza, how

871
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:22,879
Speaker 2: do you think that they feel about us? So, yes,

872
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:27,840
Speaker 2: we are creating more danger for our own population and

873
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 2: our own service members and our own assets in the region.

874
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 2: Do I believe this particular story about drone striking La

875
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 2: Absolutely not. And one other thing to keep in mind

876
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:40,359
Speaker 2: here is, you know, I mean, what we've seen from

877
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 2: Iran in terms of their attacks on any sort of

878
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 2: US personnel or basis in the region, it has always

879
00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:51,360
Speaker 2: been we or Israel attack them first. We have not

880
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 2: seen them, you know, trying to come over here and

881
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 2: drone strike, as we have not seen them out of

882
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:58,799
Speaker 2: the blue attacking our assets in the region either. It

883
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 2: has always been in retaliation for something that we started.

884
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 2: So it does not fit their pattern of behavior whatsoever.

885
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 2: And of course we already have law enforcement officials who

886
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:07,879
Speaker 2: were like, this.

887
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 3: Is yeah, the drone thing. I'm not worried about the

888
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 3: sleeper cell thing. I'll put it to you this way.

889
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 3: Do I think that there are intentionally designed terror sleeper cells?

890
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 3: We didn't see any of that usually during the Global

891
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 3: War on Terror, although there were a few, like al

892
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 3: Qaeda plots, you couldn't really call it sleeper cell. It

893
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 3: would be a not KaiA sell right, Like people who

894
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 3: were inspired there would be like a small set of teams.

895
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:30,080
Speaker 3: You have the London attacks that happened in five you

896
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 3: had some of the Times Square plot, some of these

897
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:34,200
Speaker 3: other things that happened here in the United States.

898
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:35,240
Speaker 1: That's very unlikely.

899
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:37,319
Speaker 3: But what did we see A lot of San Bernardino,

900
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 3: A lot of these what are they like, you know,

901
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:40,800
Speaker 3: these is so called.

902
00:47:41,520 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 1: Inspired I'm actually pretty worried about.

903
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:45,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, that can definitely got that.

904
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 3: I mean, listen, we know, we have tens of millions

905
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 3: of people here illegally. We have no idea who most

906
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 3: of these people are. We don't have no registry or

907
00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:55,320
Speaker 3: any of that. Not to mention a massive Muslim population.

908
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,239
Speaker 3: It's like, yeah, that's scary, and they couldn't even just

909
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:01,320
Speaker 3: be them. It could also be I know, far left anarchists,

910
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:02,080
Speaker 3: right people.

911
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,840
Speaker 2: You don't have an FBI that's very interested in creating

912
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:09,440
Speaker 2: full like ginning up terror, to radicalizing people themselves and

913
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 2: then setting them off and you know, so that they

914
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:14,240
Speaker 2: can disrupt Oh my god, we disrupted the terror attype.

915
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 2: But no, I mean, listen, undocumented immigrants, that's one thing.

916
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:20,680
Speaker 2: But you also have plenty of Americans who are going

917
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 2: to be disgusted and radicalized by what's going on, who

918
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 2: you know, are looking at the atrocities abroad. And so

919
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 2: it's a very volatile mix. Obviously, we're a population that

920
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:32,240
Speaker 2: is tock full of guns and weapons and very violent

921
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 2: society to begin with. We were just talking about the

922
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 2: fact that a bunch of these white South Africans that

923
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:39,759
Speaker 2: came over here going back home because they find our

924
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 2: society to be too violent, dangerous and chaotic. So you know,

925
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,239
Speaker 2: that is the landscape. And then you add on top

926
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:50,240
Speaker 2: of that this disgusting illegal war of choice where innocent

927
00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:52,400
Speaker 2: civilians are being slaughtered and we can see, you know,

928
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 2: not only the school girls. We see what happened in

929
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:58,759
Speaker 2: Tehran when the Israelis reportedly bombed this oil depot and

930
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:03,360
Speaker 2: you had, you know, assive ecological disaster, acid rain raining

931
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 2: down from the sky, health effects that we can only

932
00:49:07,200 --> 00:49:10,799
Speaker 2: you know, scarcely imagine what the reverberations of that have been.

933
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 2: Many civilians have been killed, and yeah, it's it creates

934
00:49:15,760 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 2: more risk for us, is the bottom line. But this

935
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 2: particular thing, total incomplete bulship.

936
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this one.

937
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 4: Don't worry about that one.

938
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 3: As I said, I'm really not worried about some like

939
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:27,240
Speaker 3: state sponsored attack. I think that some sort of blowback

940
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:28,960
Speaker 3: style attack that could happen here.

941
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:30,920
Speaker 1: By the way, I didn't I mention.

942
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:32,480
Speaker 3: All these illegal what about all these Iranians who are

943
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:34,439
Speaker 3: currently living here. We got like, you know, how many

944
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:39,440
Speaker 3: maxive Iranian populations polling which you've seen, Crystal. You if

945
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 3: you watch the media, you would think ninety percent of

946
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:46,959
Speaker 3: American Iranians are for the war. Not true, Raar. Recent

947
00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 3: poll just came out they're fifty to fifty on it. So,

948
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 3: like you just said, maybe there's some by guy who's

949
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 3: got some family over there, they get killed. Industry, you

950
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:56,479
Speaker 3: could see it happening. Are we excusing it? No, we're

951
00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 3: just living in reality. Like, yeah, I hope that there's

952
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 3: no violence, but having lived through the entire global War

953
00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:04,480
Speaker 3: on Terror and seeing some of these attacks all happen

954
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:07,319
Speaker 3: in real time, you really, you know, you really have

955
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 3: to be careful, which is why it's a better idea

956
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 3: just not getting involved in the war in the first place. Okay,

957
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:14,200
Speaker 3: thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it.

958
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:16,400
Speaker 3: We'll have a great Friday show for everybody tomorrow. We'll

959
00:50:16,400 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 3: see you all that