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Speaker 1: Well, we've been talking a lot about Nancy Pelosi's visit

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Speaker 1: to Taiwan, and we have Amanda Shall with US now

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Speaker 1: senior China analysts at Crisis Group to discuss this trip.

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Speaker 1: So we've talked a lot really throughout the past couple

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Speaker 1: of days on this show about whether China might lose

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Speaker 1: from this or the US might lose from this. UH.

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Speaker 1: I haven't talked quite so much about Taiwan. UH and

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Speaker 1: Taiwan really didn't ask for this visit, however, it's generally

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Speaker 1: supportive of these types of of recognition by allies like

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Speaker 1: the United States. But what are the stakes here for Taiwan?

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Speaker 1: What what? What's what's Taiwan concerned about as a result

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Speaker 1: of this? Yeah? Thanks, you know, I think for Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: Pelosi's visit is undoubtedly a major political win for them,

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Speaker 1: the Taiwanese government, they were very quiet, intentionally quiet, and

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Speaker 1: the lead up to this trip, while the US and

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Speaker 1: China were trading barbs publicly. Um, and you know, I

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Speaker 1: think since she's arrived, it's very clear how supportive they

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Speaker 1: are of this trip. The tallest building here taking one

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Speaker 1: on one was lit up with a huge welcome message

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Speaker 1: for speaker Pelosi, and for them, you know, this this

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Speaker 1: represents um an accumulation of momentum around growing international support

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Speaker 1: for Taiwan. You know, for them, you know, Taiwan only

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Speaker 1: has formal relations with thirteen countries, and so Pelosi's visit

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Speaker 1: helps to normalize the idea that despite these unofficial relations,

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Speaker 1: countries can still have informal exchanges with Taiwan. So as

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Speaker 1: we say, this is significant in terms of the move

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Speaker 1: by her, but we know that China is definitely not

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Speaker 1: happy with what's happening here. You say that she's giving

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Speaker 1: the Taiwanese a political win. There are other sides of

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Speaker 1: the argument saying, look, China is going to come out

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Speaker 1: stronger from here. What further do you expect in terms

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Speaker 1: of the deterioration of the China US relationship. Yeah, so,

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Speaker 1: you know, Pelosi's visit um comes amidst the larger backdrop

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Speaker 1: of intensifying US China strategic competition, in which Taiwan has

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Speaker 1: become really the most contentious issue. And as competition has deepened,

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Speaker 1: we've seen that the understandings that have been placed in

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Speaker 1: place for decades that have really preserved this fragile piece

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Speaker 1: in the Taiwan straight and allowed US China bilateral relations

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Speaker 1: to move forward. These understandings are starting to unravel under

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Speaker 1: the stress of competition UH, and so both sides, we've

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Speaker 1: seen them both accused the other of changing the status

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Speaker 1: quo around Taiwan, and so Pelosi's visit is should be

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Speaker 1: understand understood in that larger context. We've seen that China

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Speaker 1: has announced a series of countermeasures as promised, including a

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Speaker 1: massive what looks like it will be a massive show

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Speaker 1: of military strength that encircles Taiwan. That's just for show,

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Speaker 1: but they could do something a little bit more damaging, like,

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Speaker 1: for for instance, target the semiconductor industry. That's something that

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Speaker 1: Neil Ferguson on our air yesterday was talking about. But

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Speaker 1: then we had a guest this morning, Richard McGregor from

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Speaker 1: the Lower Group saying, well, that would be like China

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Speaker 1: shooting itself in the foot. Your thoughts on that, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that's right in terms of McGregor's assessment. You know,

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Speaker 1: China is still catching up to Taiwan in many ways

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Speaker 1: in terms of UH semiconductor technology, so I don't think

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Speaker 1: that that is very likely. But you know, we've seen

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Speaker 1: that they have taken a number of other non military responses,

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Speaker 1: including banning imports from a hundred different food firms from Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: and they've also enacted cyber attacks on a number of

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Speaker 1: government websites. We're awaiting a press conference to from the

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Speaker 1: Australian Prime Minister and Defense minister. What does this kind

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Speaker 1: of impact or how does this kind of impact security

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Speaker 1: on the overall region. Yeah, I think we're likely to

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Speaker 1: see heightened tensions for the next couple of months. You know,

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Speaker 1: if History serves as president. During the last Taiwan Street

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Speaker 1: crisis that lasted over the course of nine months between

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Speaker 1: July to March nine, and during that time, China conducted

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Speaker 1: multiple joint exercises, conducted missile tests even as close to

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Speaker 1: thirty five miles from Taiwan's to commercial ports, and that

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Speaker 1: had a significant effect on commercial shipping. So, you know,

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Speaker 1: if if History serves as president, I think we will

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Speaker 1: see tensions, uh, you know, rise up over the next

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Speaker 1: couple of months. My first question to you was about

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Speaker 1: the costs for Taiwan, and you basically said this is

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Speaker 1: kind of a win win for for the island. Um.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious about Pelosi. Um, you know what what is

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Speaker 1: her main intention for doing this? Do you think it's

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Speaker 1: obviously to show support, but are there some personal benefits

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Speaker 1: that she's looking to accrue as well? Yeah, I mean

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Speaker 1: going back to Taiwan's calculus very quickly, you know, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think the benefits for Taiwan are clear.

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Speaker 1: It's not that they're not, uh, you know, aware of

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Speaker 1: the costs and the risks. It's simply that the threats

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Speaker 1: that China poses to the island are constant in the

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Speaker 1: lives of the Taiwanese. So for them, that's something that

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Speaker 1: has existed and will continue to exist regardless of whether

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Speaker 1: this visit took place. As for Pelosi's calculations, you know,

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Speaker 1: Speaker Pelosi has a long record of being a China Hawk,

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Speaker 1: and I think one calculation is that she may well

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Speaker 1: not be Speaker as a result of the upcoming mid

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Speaker 1: term elections. Uh, And so in this way, she is

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Speaker 1: granting Taiwan a major political win. And I think because

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Speaker 1: this trip has been discussed so publicly with media leaks

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Speaker 1: in advance of the mid terms, that has made it

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Speaker 1: very difficult for the Speaker to cancel the trip. Despite

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Speaker 1: warnings from the military and from the administration that perceived.

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Speaker 1: I think domestic political costs we're seen as too hot,

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Speaker 1: as too high to do that. Alright, Amanda, thanks very

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Speaker 1: much for joining us. I don't think we have enough

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Speaker 1: time to go any further, but I did actually want

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Speaker 1: to ask you about about sighing win and whether or

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Speaker 1: not you know there'll be a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: beating in the chest and what will say that for

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Speaker 1: the next time, no doubt, what'll chat again soon. Amanda

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Speaker 1: Shao is senior China analyst at Crisis Group. You