WEBVTT - Intel Has No Easy Options After Long, Stinging Fall From Grace

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Business Week inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 2>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 2>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 2>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's get to one of the most read stories on

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<v Speaker 3>the Bloomberg about a really important company in our world.

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<v Speaker 4>It's about the slow motion disaster at one of those

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<v Speaker 4>most important companies in the modern tech industry. It's reaching

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<v Speaker 4>a pivotal moment this week, so writes Ian King, Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 4>News US semiconductor and networking reporter, in today's Bloomberg Big Take,

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<v Speaker 4>which you can read on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 4>dot com slash Big Take.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah. In they're out speaking of property issues San Francisco.

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<v Speaker 3>He's there in our San Francisco bureau. Ian I got

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<v Speaker 3>to say, first of all, great story. We've been talking

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<v Speaker 3>with you about the decline for Intel. I feel like

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<v Speaker 3>more than a year, more than two years. It's been

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<v Speaker 3>a while. We talk about this a lot. It feels

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<v Speaker 3>like though it's coming to a head as you report.

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<v Speaker 3>Tell us about the meetings that have been going on

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<v Speaker 3>with Intel's board this week.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean, I think it's important to be precise

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<v Speaker 5>about our understanding of these meetings. These meetings that are

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<v Speaker 5>going on, our board meetings. They're not the kind of

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<v Speaker 5>barbarians at the gate, we're going to throw the management

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<v Speaker 5>out type meetings yet, but they are considering basically what

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<v Speaker 5>Intel should be doing, what perhaps it shouldn't be doing,

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<v Speaker 5>in order to kind of martial resources to continue to

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<v Speaker 5>try to fund this expansive plan that they have going forward. Clearly,

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<v Speaker 5>its business operations are not able to do that right now.

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<v Speaker 5>As we saw with its recent earnings release, things were

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<v Speaker 5>considerably worse, and I think a lot of people had expected,

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<v Speaker 5>including the management, And so really what this meeting is

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<v Speaker 5>doing is trying to sort of get that track back

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<v Speaker 5>on plan rather than potentially throw it out the window.

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<v Speaker 4>So I give us context here about just how precarious

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<v Speaker 4>Intel's finances are right now, help us understand that.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean, it's very simple. They are trying to

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<v Speaker 5>spend an enormous amount of money at a time when

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<v Speaker 5>they do not have that money coming in from their operations.

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<v Speaker 5>Right that what they were good at and what they

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<v Speaker 5>are still quite good at isn't paying like it used to.

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<v Speaker 1>They have fifty.

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<v Speaker 5>Billion dollars in debt, They're losing money, they have negative

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<v Speaker 5>cash flow, and they need to spend and continue to

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<v Speaker 5>spend over a number of years on projects that probably

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<v Speaker 5>won't pay off for a number of years. It's a

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<v Speaker 5>very difficult situation to be in.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, kind of amazing that this is what we're talking

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<v Speaker 3>about in conjunction with Intel. Hey, another stark metric is

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<v Speaker 3>the share price. It was once nearly a seventy five

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<v Speaker 3>dollars a share stock. It's now below twenty a share.

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<v Speaker 3>It's down more than sixty percent year to date, ninety

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<v Speaker 3>percent gain though last year it got above fifty dollars

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<v Speaker 3>this year, So that's a big swing in about a

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<v Speaker 3>year or so. What are the ongoing disappointments? What are

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<v Speaker 3>the hopes and possible pivots of this company that keeps

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<v Speaker 3>it going for I don't know, years to come.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean the share price I think has contributed

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<v Speaker 5>to a lot of the speculation that we're seeing about.

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<v Speaker 5>You know, where the company goes and who might be

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<v Speaker 5>interested and is it affordable as a purchase. There's a

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<v Speaker 5>lot of that going on outside of Intel. But to

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<v Speaker 5>answer your question more directly, they need a win. They

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<v Speaker 5>need a big customer for their foundry, their outsourced chip

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<v Speaker 5>making effort that they're trying to get off the ground.

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<v Speaker 5>They need some of these products that have been absolute

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<v Speaker 5>dominant to return towards that to stop losing market share.

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<v Speaker 5>They need this massive AI spend that we're seeing to

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<v Speaker 5>look in their direction right now. That's just not the.

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<v Speaker 4>Case in the US government. Part of the story in

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<v Speaker 4>recent years as well, with the Biden administration. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>the idea is that they're going to give billions of

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<v Speaker 4>dollars to Intel help us understand the position of the

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<v Speaker 4>US government and where they stand in this.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, two aspects to that, And I think that's a

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<v Speaker 5>very ger main question. All of the scenarios that are

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<v Speaker 5>being floated outside of Intel about where it might be going,

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<v Speaker 5>or who might buy it, or how it might.

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<v Speaker 1>Be split up.

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<v Speaker 5>The US government regards Intel as a strategic asset, that

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<v Speaker 5>its technology is fundamentally important to this country. So all

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<v Speaker 5>of those scenarios, and they are just scenarios at this point,

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<v Speaker 5>would have to go through Washington, and Washington is going

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<v Speaker 5>to take a very very critical look at those. So

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<v Speaker 5>that adds a layer of complication, takes away from the

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<v Speaker 5>standard Wall Street playbook in a lot of respects. And

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<v Speaker 5>the other side of that is you mentioned the money

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<v Speaker 5>that we are paying as taxpayers for Intel. It's not enough, right,

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<v Speaker 5>It's helpful. It cuts out some of the differential in

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<v Speaker 5>terms of what it costs Intel's overseas competitors to put

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<v Speaker 5>plants in the ground, and hopefully makes it, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>a level playing field. But it doesn't. It's not a bailout.

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<v Speaker 5>It's not the kind of money that Intel needs. We're

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<v Speaker 5>talking about ten of billions of dollars a year, over

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<v Speaker 5>multiple years, just to play in this game.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, in one thing, I wonder in your story you

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<v Speaker 3>take a look back at what happened to Intel and

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<v Speaker 3>why we got to this point where we're having this

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<v Speaker 3>conversation with you today, why you wrote this story today.

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<v Speaker 3>Having said that, you also note in your story that

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<v Speaker 3>it didn't have to come to this. Is there anything

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<v Speaker 3>Intel can learn by looking backward in terms of where

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<v Speaker 3>it needs to go forward?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, well, that's why Pat Gelsinger was brought in.

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<v Speaker 5>That was a step backwards. He left Intel to become

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<v Speaker 5>the VMware CEO at the height of its powers. His

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<v Speaker 5>plan was to do what Intel's good at, leading manufacturing,

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<v Speaker 5>have products that just are so good that people have

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<v Speaker 5>to pay through the nose for them. That's his plan.

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<v Speaker 5>That requires a lot of money. So that's what he's

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<v Speaker 5>tried to go back to. But things have moved on

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<v Speaker 5>since then. Competitors like TSMC, like Nvidia are now very strong,

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<v Speaker 5>have the kind of dominance, have the kind of cloud

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<v Speaker 5>that Intel used to have. So he's trying to you know,

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<v Speaker 5>he's trying to play the greatest hits at a time

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<v Speaker 5>when music cases have moved on.

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<v Speaker 3>One thing, I do wonder if AI for a year

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<v Speaker 3>and a half ago, you know, Microsoft didn't do you know,

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<v Speaker 3>their investment in open AI and touchypt if that hadn't happened,

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<v Speaker 3>and I know it's not a good way to do this,

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<v Speaker 3>but if it hadn't happened, would you have written this

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<v Speaker 3>story about Intel being at kind of a critical juncture?

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<v Speaker 3>Would we not be having this conversation. Is it just

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<v Speaker 3>AI or it's something much more systemic in the Intel

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<v Speaker 3>culture that is just kind of brought about its problems.

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<v Speaker 5>I would say that that's a very good question, and

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<v Speaker 5>it's a mixture of the two. The AI opportunity has

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<v Speaker 5>in shareholders' minds in technology, technology, and his mind has

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<v Speaker 5>concentrated just how important and useful technology other than Intel's

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<v Speaker 5>is right, And this was an opportunity that Intel should

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<v Speaker 5>have taken and would have given it more time, would

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<v Speaker 5>have given it more resources to be able to devote

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<v Speaker 5>to putting some of these other things right. So it's

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<v Speaker 5>a mixture of the two. It's definitely an accelerant, but

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<v Speaker 5>it's not the root cause. The root cause are decisions

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<v Speaker 5>that were made by Pat Gelsinger's predecessors, decisions that have

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<v Speaker 5>turned out to have been terrible decisions. And indeed that's

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<v Speaker 5>how he's characterized them.

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<v Speaker 4>It's hard to ask you a question in about what

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<v Speaker 4>things look like in the future, but help us imagine

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<v Speaker 4>a scenario. Is there one where a storied company like

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<v Speaker 4>Intel just doesn't exist in a few years.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean the conversations that I've been having with people

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<v Speaker 5>who look at the company, who have invested in the company,

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<v Speaker 5>some of them who don't invest in the company. That

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<v Speaker 5>is what it's come to. That it's the oh dear moment,

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<v Speaker 5>shall we say, And even for that to be even

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<v Speaker 5>a vague consideration around a company that just ruled the

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<v Speaker 5>world like Intel did is frankly shocking. You've got to remember,

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<v Speaker 5>I think the perfect illustrate of that is twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 5>one was not long ago. They had three times as

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<v Speaker 5>much total revenue as in Nvidia, and look where we

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<v Speaker 5>are now.

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<v Speaker 3>That's an incredible decline right when you think about their business.

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<v Speaker 3>Ian is always great stuff, and I know we continue

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<v Speaker 3>to talk about this company and we'll continue to see

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<v Speaker 3>what the next chapter brings when it comes to Intel.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, so appreciate it, Ian King, Thank you. Thank you,

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<v Speaker 3>US semiconductor networking reporter at Bloomberg News out there in

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<v Speaker 3>our San Francisco bureau. By the way, this is among

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<v Speaker 3>the most read stories on the Bloomberg and it is

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<v Speaker 3>the Bloomberg Big Take, which you can check out on

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<v Speaker 3>the Bloomberg terminal at Bloomberg dot com slash Big Take.

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<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 3>All right, let me throw out one metric I guess

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<v Speaker 3>I kind of got to do this. The global sportsware

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<v Speaker 3>market size valued it nearly four hundred and thirteen billion

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<v Speaker 3>dollars in twenty twenty two, estimated to reach nearly one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred forty nine billion by twenty thirty one. And listen,

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<v Speaker 3>there's a lot of players in it and looking to

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<v Speaker 3>take a share of it. Is a partnership. Our next

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<v Speaker 3>two guests, both with brands that are very well known

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<v Speaker 3>now with a combined brand known as Greatness Wins.

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<v Speaker 4>So let's get to the interview with more joining us

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<v Speaker 4>here in the studio. The founder of Vuantucket, who came

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<v Speaker 4>up with the idea for his casual shirts while working

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<v Speaker 4>at GE Healthcare. Chris Ricobono back with us, also with

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<v Speaker 4>US Hall of Fame shortstop and five time World Series

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<v Speaker 4>champion with the New York Yankees, also an e commerce

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<v Speaker 4>investor to Derek Jeter, both here in the Bloomberg BusinessWeek studio. Okay, guys,

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<v Speaker 4>first up, we want to know how you guys got together.

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<v Speaker 4>How did this come together? Who called who, who had

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<v Speaker 4>the idea for who to get involved? How did it

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<v Speaker 4>come out?

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<v Speaker 1>That's a good question. You start. We'll see what version

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<v Speaker 1>comes out.

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<v Speaker 6>I was going to say Derek reached out to me,

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<v Speaker 6>but that's not how it worked. So I over the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 6>I was looking to solve another problem in the fashion industry,

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<v Speaker 6>and I thought about athletic apparel and it didn't exist

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<v Speaker 6>for me something that had a great fit but also

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<v Speaker 6>had foremance first in mind. So I came up with

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<v Speaker 6>this concept in this idea, but now I wanted a

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<v Speaker 6>few athletes behind me. And at the time, I think

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<v Speaker 6>Derek might have still had a contract with Nike or

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<v Speaker 6>it was winding down, and I didn't think that I

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<v Speaker 6>could get to him or that he'd be interested. But

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<v Speaker 6>after a year of bothering him and his agents, he

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<v Speaker 6>actually called me and said, Chris, I'm just not that

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<v Speaker 6>interested and excited in this. But I said, he can't

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<v Speaker 6>get off say he can't get off the phone, Derek,

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<v Speaker 6>how can I get you excited? So we talked for

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<v Speaker 6>a while after that, and we kind of came together

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<v Speaker 6>with both of our visions. You know, I'm apparel guy,

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<v Speaker 6>That's the way I think about it. Derek's was a

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<v Speaker 6>successful entrepreneur but also very successful, as you know, a

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<v Speaker 6>Nike guy, so I knew that he had a lot

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<v Speaker 6>of insight that I didn't have and he shared it

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<v Speaker 6>with me, and we launched a brand about a year

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<v Speaker 6>and a half ago and we're having great success.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, you weren't excited and then he became excited. How

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<v Speaker 3>that happened? How did you make that turn?

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<v Speaker 2>Well?

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<v Speaker 7>I think you know, first and foremost getting to know Chris,

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<v Speaker 7>we talked about the idea. I've had relationships with athletic

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<v Speaker 7>brands throughout my career in great relationships and I still

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<v Speaker 7>do today, right, And you know, when I was first

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<v Speaker 7>speaking to Chris, I was like, well, first of all,

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<v Speaker 7>you know, this is a crowded space. It's not as

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<v Speaker 7>easy to attack this space, and it's going to take

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<v Speaker 7>some time and it's going to take a lot of energy.

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<v Speaker 7>And I wouldn't say I wasn't excited, but I when

0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:20.360
<v Speaker 7>I do something, I'm all in and if I'm not

0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:23.200
<v Speaker 7>all in, I'm just not going to do it. And

0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:25.800
<v Speaker 7>at that point when we were having the discussion, I said,

0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:27.720
<v Speaker 7>you know, I don't think now is the time. And

0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:31.000
<v Speaker 7>then we actually got together, we had a chance to

0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:33.640
<v Speaker 7>look and feel and touch the product, and that started

0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:37.320
<v Speaker 7>getting me very very excited about it. So I guess

0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:39.000
<v Speaker 7>that's the best way to put it in our short

0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:39.760
<v Speaker 7>period of time.

0:11:40.000 --> 0:11:43.120
<v Speaker 4>You do, though, Derek, probably get a lot of investment pitches,

0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:45.880
<v Speaker 4>not just in the apparel world, but yeah, no question,

0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:49.160
<v Speaker 4>from lots of different entrepreneurs who want your involvement. What

0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:52.440
<v Speaker 4>was it specifically about this one with Chris with Untucket

0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:53.880
<v Speaker 4>that really caught your eye.

0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:55.200
<v Speaker 7>I think it's you got to get to know the

0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:57.520
<v Speaker 7>people any business that you're in the same thing, when

0:11:57.520 --> 0:11:59.120
<v Speaker 7>you're on a team on the field.

0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.880
<v Speaker 1>You have to have the right people side.

0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:04.640
<v Speaker 7>Yeah exactly. I was gonna say that, but you didn't

0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:07.480
<v Speaker 7>give me enough time say that. And you know, I

0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:10.080
<v Speaker 7>just found Chris to be very, very passionate about it.

0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:12.680
<v Speaker 7>You can't fake passion. You either are you aren't. And

0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:15.360
<v Speaker 7>you know, even when I told him that I wasn't interested,

0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:18.040
<v Speaker 7>he kept calling and we kept having the conversation, and

0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:20.240
<v Speaker 7>I knew when you're if you're going to be successful,

0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:21.920
<v Speaker 7>you need those types of people on your side.

0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:23.600
<v Speaker 3>I always think about that. I remember talking to a

0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:25.360
<v Speaker 3>top m and a banker and he's like, the only

0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:27.320
<v Speaker 3>way you get deals done is this. CEOs have to

0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:28.839
<v Speaker 3>like each other, and that's how you get things come

0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:31.199
<v Speaker 3>to the table. Would you say no to a great

0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:33.800
<v Speaker 3>deal because you didn't like somebody, Oh.

0:12:33.679 --> 0:12:35.400
<v Speaker 6>Without a doubt. I mean you end up working a lot.

0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:38.640
<v Speaker 6>It's funny when Derek said that he wanted to be

0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:41.000
<v Speaker 6>more involved and he when he goes all in, I

0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:42.760
<v Speaker 6>was thinking he was just doing that as an equity

0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:44.959
<v Speaker 6>play to get some more equity. Yeah, that he actually

0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:47.360
<v Speaker 6>wanted to be and Derek's liked I mean he he

0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:49.880
<v Speaker 6>wants to talk about everything, every decision and you want

0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:52.240
<v Speaker 6>somebody who I want something that guess because I don't

0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:54.000
<v Speaker 6>know everything and I definitely don't know everything in the

0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:56.720
<v Speaker 6>athletic apparel space. So it's been a this.

0:12:56.840 --> 0:12:59.880
<v Speaker 1>Is recorded, right, I'm gonna player. We're gonna play that.

0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:01.800
<v Speaker 3>You can do that, you can look it, you can

0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:02.160
<v Speaker 3>loop it.

0:13:02.240 --> 0:13:02.920
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, exactly.

0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:04.880
<v Speaker 3>Well the same thing for you, I mean, Derek, when

0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:07.120
<v Speaker 3>you get involved in something, how you know, we asked

0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:09.840
<v Speaker 3>about what made this interesting, but in general, how involved

0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:11.559
<v Speaker 3>do you want to be? I mean how much do

0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:14.000
<v Speaker 3>you have to love the brand that you hook up with?

0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:15.320
<v Speaker 1>You have to be involved.

0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:18.280
<v Speaker 7>I mean otherwise you're just given your money and you're

0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:20.320
<v Speaker 7>hoping someone else runs with it and makes you more.

0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:22.880
<v Speaker 7>But when you're passionate about something, when you put in

0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:24.440
<v Speaker 7>the time, you put in the effort. I think the

0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:27.640
<v Speaker 7>best thing to say about us is we disagree probably

0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:30.240
<v Speaker 7>more than we agree, and I think that's a good thing.

0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:30.520
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:32.600
<v Speaker 7>I mean, you don't want people that always think the

0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:35.040
<v Speaker 7>same as you, Otherwise you're never going to make improvements.

0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:36.280
<v Speaker 7>You're never going to make progress.

0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:38.280
<v Speaker 3>Is it hard to say no to? Derek?

0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:38.600
<v Speaker 1>Though?

0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:41.839
<v Speaker 3>We just talked with the leadership We are author of

0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:44.520
<v Speaker 3>a leadership book, and they talked about CEOs who once

0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:46.640
<v Speaker 3>they get to the top, they surround themselves with people

0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:48.520
<v Speaker 3>who who don't say no.

0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:51.520
<v Speaker 6>Listen, I rolled the dice right from the beginning, and

0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:54.080
<v Speaker 6>we went after each other a little bit. But like

0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:56.679
<v Speaker 6>you said it, it's the best way to go about it.

0:13:56.679 --> 0:13:57.959
<v Speaker 6>Like you want to leave at the end of the

0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:00.560
<v Speaker 6>day and have people go against your views, because if

0:14:00.559 --> 0:14:02.680
<v Speaker 6>they're agreeing with you, you're not going to always do

0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:04.680
<v Speaker 6>the right thing. So I thought that was a great

0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:07.480
<v Speaker 6>I wondered if he was one to because sorry, if

0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:09.120
<v Speaker 6>he was going to want to continue to relationship a

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:12.160
<v Speaker 6>few times, but it really came together and now now

0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:14.319
<v Speaker 6>we're on the same page and things are going really

0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:14.840
<v Speaker 6>well for us.

0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:17.640
<v Speaker 3>Well, I do wonder when does it get a little tricky,

0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:21.360
<v Speaker 3>Like any partnership, whether it's a marriage, whether it's working relationships,

0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:23.800
<v Speaker 3>whether it's business relationships, there's always tough times.

0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:25.480
<v Speaker 4>What are some of those looking at me?

0:14:25.720 --> 0:14:25.920
<v Speaker 1>Yeah?

0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:27.640
<v Speaker 7>I was about to say, you guys, just keep going.

0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:29.080
<v Speaker 7>You want to you answer that question?

0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:32.080
<v Speaker 3>No, But I really do feel like a little bit

0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:34.520
<v Speaker 3>of debate or a little bit of arguing like gets

0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:35.600
<v Speaker 3>you to a better place.

0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:37.320
<v Speaker 1>I think it does. You have to have a difference

0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:38.080
<v Speaker 1>of opinion, like.

0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:39.360
<v Speaker 3>I said, I do like you tim.

0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:42.400
<v Speaker 7>Otherwise, like I said, you're not going to make any

0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:46.360
<v Speaker 7>any progress moving forward. And we probably we disagree more

0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:49.440
<v Speaker 7>than we agree, but we do it respectfully. And you know,

0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:51.720
<v Speaker 7>there are some things that I know he's an expert.

0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:54.840
<v Speaker 7>It's impossible to be the expert everything, right, you surround

0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:57.760
<v Speaker 7>your people that are much more intelligent in different fields.

0:14:57.800 --> 0:14:59.960
<v Speaker 7>And you know, Chris obviously has a lot of experience

0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:03.200
<v Speaker 7>in the retail space, especially I have experience when it

0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:06.720
<v Speaker 7>comes to athletic brands. So it's okay for us to disagree.

0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:09.240
<v Speaker 4>So Chris, let's go there because this is a really

0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:11.560
<v Speaker 4>crowded space. You mentioned Nike, but I mean If you

0:15:11.600 --> 0:15:13.920
<v Speaker 4>think about upstarts like Viori, Rhone, then there are the

0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:17.760
<v Speaker 4>big players like Nike, Adidas and the like. How do

0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:20.640
<v Speaker 4>you carve out a place for you specifically?

0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:23.920
<v Speaker 6>So it's funny, just like with on Tucket, I really

0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:26.040
<v Speaker 6>needed this product. Then you might ask why. You know

0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:28.360
<v Speaker 6>there's plenty of athletic brands and athlesier brands. For me,

0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:31.400
<v Speaker 6>the athletic brands that existed, the quality wasn't there, the

0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:35.160
<v Speaker 6>consistency of fit wasn't there. They were designed for performance,

0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:38.160
<v Speaker 6>but they didn't have that modern fit. The athleisure brands

0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:41.640
<v Speaker 6>have an incredible fit, very high quality fabrics, but not

0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:45.040
<v Speaker 6>designed with performance first in mind. So I wanted a

0:15:45.080 --> 0:15:48.040
<v Speaker 6>really high end athletic brand that had a great fit

0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:50.920
<v Speaker 6>but also was meant to work out and would withstand

0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:54.200
<v Speaker 6>being washed, not pilling. Something that all athletes, not just

0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:57.560
<v Speaker 6>professional athletes, could use all the time. And it's not inexpensive,

0:15:57.600 --> 0:15:59.240
<v Speaker 6>so you want it to last for a long time.

0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:02.840
<v Speaker 6>And I think that that's where we are differentiate from

0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:05.320
<v Speaker 6>these other brands. We're not athleisure, We're not athletic. We're

0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:07.320
<v Speaker 6>kind of a blend of both, if that makes sense.

0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:09.200
<v Speaker 3>I've got yoga pants on that are pilling a little bit.

0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:10.960
<v Speaker 3>So I totally get you. What's the kind of what's

0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:13.880
<v Speaker 3>the growth trajectory? Tell me what we can tell we're Bloomberg.

0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:16.600
<v Speaker 3>We love numbers, you know that. What's the growth on this?

0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:18.960
<v Speaker 7>Well, we need you to go buy some pants, just

0:16:20.360 --> 0:16:22.240
<v Speaker 7>get right on it to help it's out. But I

0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:23.920
<v Speaker 7>think for us, I'll let Chris follow up on it.

0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:25.760
<v Speaker 7>I think what we want to show as a brand,

0:16:25.840 --> 0:16:28.080
<v Speaker 7>this is only our second year. We want to show progress.

0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:31.840
<v Speaker 7>You know sometimes when you when when you're building a company,

0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:34.920
<v Speaker 7>a startup company, you want success right away to understand

0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:36.760
<v Speaker 7>you're you're a startup company for I think they say

0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.000
<v Speaker 7>ten years. I mean that's a long long time. So

0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:41.480
<v Speaker 7>we want to show some steady progression. I'll let Chris

0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:42.120
<v Speaker 7>get in a number.

0:16:42.200 --> 0:16:42.360
<v Speaker 8>Yeah.

0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:44.200
<v Speaker 3>Wait, so will it be ten years before you really

0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:44.960
<v Speaker 3>feel like it's there?

0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:48.040
<v Speaker 1>Depends on how much you buy now.

0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:51.960
<v Speaker 6>I mean, there is so much competition. You want to

0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:54.240
<v Speaker 6>just stay relevant. You want to make a great product.

0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:55.640
<v Speaker 6>That's the first thing. You got to make a great product,

0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:57.280
<v Speaker 6>you need your repeats to be there, which they are

0:16:57.320 --> 0:16:59.520
<v Speaker 6>for us. The other thing that's really exciting with us

0:16:59.600 --> 0:17:01.760
<v Speaker 6>is not just you have the e comm then eventually stores,

0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:03.840
<v Speaker 6>which is what I did with on Tucket. We have

0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:06.840
<v Speaker 6>a great wholesale business we're building at Greatness Wins. We

0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:09.399
<v Speaker 6>have a golf business. We'll be in eighty clubs. We

0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:11.800
<v Speaker 6>were in eighty clubs this spring. We have a bookstore business.

0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:14.680
<v Speaker 6>Derek just wore a Michigan sweatshirt on his Honorey Captain

0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:17.960
<v Speaker 6>in Michigan this weekend. We have a new dance relationship

0:17:17.960 --> 0:17:19.480
<v Speaker 6>with Misty Copeland, who's our women this.

0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:21.520
<v Speaker 3>Foundary women who do a little bit of shopping.

0:17:21.720 --> 0:17:24.680
<v Speaker 6>So we have something that will be announcing soon. That's exciting.

0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:27.520
<v Speaker 6>So I'm very happy with earlier are. People love the product,

0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:30.040
<v Speaker 6>they love the quality, and we're just getting going, but

0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:31.000
<v Speaker 6>very excited.

0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:31.159
<v Speaker 1>For the future.

0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:33.040
<v Speaker 3>All Right, We're going to just shift a little bit

0:17:33.080 --> 0:17:35.240
<v Speaker 3>because I am curious, Derek, are you looking for any

0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:39.639
<v Speaker 3>other investments, you know, in sports beyond baseball or maybe

0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:41.440
<v Speaker 3>an MLB team or anything.

0:17:41.520 --> 0:17:43.119
<v Speaker 7>No, I've been down that path. No, I'm going to

0:17:43.119 --> 0:17:44.439
<v Speaker 7>take a break from that. I spend a lot of

0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:46.960
<v Speaker 7>time with my four kids who are seven and under,

0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:49.720
<v Speaker 7>so it's a full time job, especially when you're talking

0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:53.720
<v Speaker 7>about baseball ownership. So at this particular point, I think

0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:54.560
<v Speaker 7>I have my hands full.

0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:56.360
<v Speaker 4>So you know whether, yeah, well when you say take

0:17:56.359 --> 0:17:58.240
<v Speaker 4>a break, are you ruling it out for the future

0:17:58.320 --> 0:17:59.159
<v Speaker 4>or do you want to get back in there.

0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:02.360
<v Speaker 7>I learned a law long time ago never say never yeah,

0:18:02.400 --> 0:18:04.480
<v Speaker 7>because you never know. I just said it three times

0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:06.400
<v Speaker 7>in a row. But you don't know where the future

0:18:06.480 --> 0:18:08.920
<v Speaker 7>is going to lead you. But at this particular point.

0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:10.800
<v Speaker 3>Now, I do also wonder the two of you, like

0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:15.919
<v Speaker 3>when you think about either ath leisure or athletic appareled

0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:18.040
<v Speaker 3>you know, companies that you look at that you admire

0:18:18.119 --> 0:18:20.480
<v Speaker 3>or leaders you admire. Let me ask you, Chris first, like,

0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:23.080
<v Speaker 3>is there somebody that you look at and say, that's

0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:24.680
<v Speaker 3>who I kind of get some cues from.

0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:27.960
<v Speaker 6>Or I mean we always talk about Nike and the

0:18:28.040 --> 0:18:30.639
<v Speaker 6>Jordan brand. Those are the greatest, you know, probably the

0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:34.040
<v Speaker 6>greatest brand maybe ever, so well, you know, you want

0:18:34.080 --> 0:18:35.919
<v Speaker 6>to be them, but if you're half half of what

0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:38.440
<v Speaker 6>they become, you're very successful. And I think the ath

0:18:38.480 --> 0:18:40.920
<v Speaker 6>leisure brands are great too. I mean I won't name

0:18:40.960 --> 0:18:45.160
<v Speaker 6>them because you know, but I think there's a lot

0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:49.160
<v Speaker 6>of great brands these days. So we're just trying to differentiate,

0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:51.320
<v Speaker 6>give a reason, you know why you might need our

0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:54.240
<v Speaker 6>product versus those products, and yeah, hopefully it works.

0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:56.160
<v Speaker 3>Leader you look at your smiling.

0:18:56.560 --> 0:18:59.320
<v Speaker 7>No, there's there's a lot, you know. It's it's I

0:18:59.440 --> 0:19:02.359
<v Speaker 7>want to come to mine, he said, Jordan Brand. You know,

0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:04.679
<v Speaker 7>MJ's been like a big brother than me. And I

0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:06.760
<v Speaker 7>think you know, I have young kids now, and you

0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:09.359
<v Speaker 7>want them to choose their career path and find someone

0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:11.159
<v Speaker 7>that they can look up to. You want them to

0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:14.040
<v Speaker 7>see someone who's been successful. And you know, you talk

0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:16.560
<v Speaker 7>about Michael on what he was able to accomplish on

0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:19.360
<v Speaker 7>the basketball court, but I think you look at athletes

0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:21.720
<v Speaker 7>post playing career, he's up there at the top what

0:19:22.200 --> 0:19:25.080
<v Speaker 7>he's been able to accomplish from a business standpoint. So

0:19:25.160 --> 0:19:27.560
<v Speaker 7>he's someone that I look to and go to for advice.

0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:30.760
<v Speaker 3>All right, you're going to go there, you go World Series.

0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:32.679
<v Speaker 3>I know I have to do this. I have to

0:19:32.680 --> 0:19:34.200
<v Speaker 3>do this, all right, So you're going.

0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:36.280
<v Speaker 1>To be in the booth, right I am, Yes? Yeah?

0:19:36.359 --> 0:19:38.760
<v Speaker 3>Who do you can you think about who might be there?

0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:40.960
<v Speaker 7>I don't know, it depends, you know. I'm not trying

0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:43.600
<v Speaker 7>to skirt the question. I'm really not, but a lot

0:19:43.640 --> 0:19:46.000
<v Speaker 7>of it is matchups. Okay, we'll know in a couple

0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:48.000
<v Speaker 7>of weeks, because you know some teams I know during

0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:50.199
<v Speaker 7>my careers to play Anaheim Angels all the time. We

0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:52.960
<v Speaker 7>just couldn't beat them, and you know, finally we broke

0:19:53.000 --> 0:19:54.399
<v Speaker 7>through and we were able to win in two thousand

0:19:54.440 --> 0:19:56.639
<v Speaker 7>and nine. But it all comes down to matchups. So

0:19:56.640 --> 0:19:57.760
<v Speaker 7>there's some good teams out there.

0:19:57.840 --> 0:19:59.800
<v Speaker 3>Chris, you talk baseball, and I'm curious what you might

0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:01.520
<v Speaker 3>think for the World Series.

0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:07.000
<v Speaker 1>It knows nothing about basics. I know baseball.

0:20:07.680 --> 0:20:11.560
<v Speaker 6>I mean, did a deal with I don't bother Derek

0:20:11.640 --> 0:20:14.840
<v Speaker 6>with it, but I'm a Yankees fan. We'll see it's

0:20:14.880 --> 0:20:16.320
<v Speaker 6>they don't seem to be able to perform in the

0:20:16.320 --> 0:20:19.560
<v Speaker 6>playoffs for the last what is it fifteen years.

0:20:19.359 --> 0:20:24.520
<v Speaker 1>Now, we'll discuss it on.

0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:28.680
<v Speaker 3>Hey listen, guys, got about forty seconds left here real

0:20:28.760 --> 0:20:31.760
<v Speaker 3>quickly in I don't know, a year from now. What's

0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:33.320
<v Speaker 3>the conversation around your company.

0:20:33.840 --> 0:20:35.520
<v Speaker 6>I think we'll start to look at stores. I mean,

0:20:35.600 --> 0:20:38.240
<v Speaker 6>I love stores. Not many people do in retail. We

0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:40.160
<v Speaker 6>have nine of them on Tucket and we're opening more.

0:20:40.480 --> 0:20:42.600
<v Speaker 6>I think it's really important for the male shoppers. So

0:20:42.640 --> 0:20:44.160
<v Speaker 6>I think we'll look at that, and we'll look at

0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:48.119
<v Speaker 6>continued growth in these different areas that we discuss, bookstores, golf,

0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:49.639
<v Speaker 6>e commerce. So it's very exciting.

0:20:49.800 --> 0:20:51.840
<v Speaker 3>Same thing for you, Derek, in terms of greatness, wins

0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:52.879
<v Speaker 3>and a year from now, what are we gonna be

0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:53.320
<v Speaker 3>talking about.

0:20:53.400 --> 0:20:54.560
<v Speaker 1>Oh, I think it's all awareness.

0:20:54.560 --> 0:20:56.040
<v Speaker 7>You want people to be aware. You want to walk

0:20:56.080 --> 0:20:58.520
<v Speaker 7>around the streets and see people wearing And I'm very

0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:01.280
<v Speaker 7>confident in the fact that someone buys our product and

0:21:01.320 --> 0:21:03.399
<v Speaker 7>they wear it, they'll be happy with it, their return.

0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:04.359
<v Speaker 4>As a customer and no pilling.

0:21:04.400 --> 0:21:06.840
<v Speaker 1>You promise, Well, you got to tell me.

0:21:07.160 --> 0:21:09.159
<v Speaker 3>I got.

0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:15.680
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Listen live

0:21:15.800 --> 0:21:18.600
<v Speaker 2>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple, car

0:21:18.720 --> 0:21:21.679
<v Speaker 2>Play and Androyd Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

0:21:21.720 --> 0:21:24.960
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0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:28.840
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0:21:30.160 --> 0:21:32.680
<v Speaker 3>All right, everybody, a story from the Wall Street Journal Today.

0:21:32.680 --> 0:21:34.919
<v Speaker 3>We want to bring to your attention millennials. You know,

0:21:34.960 --> 0:21:38.320
<v Speaker 3>those younger folks. You're a millennial art I'm.

0:21:38.200 --> 0:21:41.320
<v Speaker 4>An elder, millennial, elder, elder. It's a real things.

0:21:41.440 --> 0:21:46.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, all right, anyway, Younger folks, millennials, older millennials, elder

0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:49.400
<v Speaker 3>millennials like Tim increasingly going on cruises.

0:21:49.440 --> 0:21:52.600
<v Speaker 4>Who knew it's not the cruise their parents parents went

0:21:52.640 --> 0:21:55.720
<v Speaker 4>on the They want quick escapes, private islands. Yeah, so

0:21:55.800 --> 0:21:57.040
<v Speaker 4>the Wall Street Journal notes.

0:21:56.880 --> 0:22:01.359
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's an interesting story. So yeah, you're there. Who

0:22:01.400 --> 0:22:03.359
<v Speaker 3>doesn't want to go to a private island? Young and

0:22:03.400 --> 0:22:05.720
<v Speaker 3>old anyway? With more in the travel scene in the

0:22:05.800 --> 0:22:09.080
<v Speaker 3>upcoming holiday travel season, back with U, says Haleyberg, lead

0:22:09.080 --> 0:22:11.720
<v Speaker 3>economists at the travel app Hopper, joining us once again

0:22:11.720 --> 0:22:14.600
<v Speaker 3>from Boston. All right, first up, before we get into

0:22:14.760 --> 0:22:17.720
<v Speaker 3>your holiday travel outlook, you guys recently have come out

0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:22.359
<v Speaker 3>with a report travel, holiday travel, consumer travel. Is it

0:22:22.480 --> 0:22:25.080
<v Speaker 3>slowing down? Are people looking for bargains? What are we

0:22:25.119 --> 0:22:26.640
<v Speaker 3>seeing right now in today's environment.

0:22:28.240 --> 0:22:31.800
<v Speaker 9>We're seeing that this holiday season will be busy. Most

0:22:31.920 --> 0:22:35.280
<v Speaker 9>Americans see holiday travel, if they do travel, as an

0:22:35.400 --> 0:22:38.960
<v Speaker 9>essential expense, and that's reflected in what they're telling us

0:22:39.440 --> 0:22:43.400
<v Speaker 9>right now. About seventy five percent of Hopper customers say

0:22:43.400 --> 0:22:45.800
<v Speaker 9>that they're going to be spending more on holiday travel

0:22:45.840 --> 0:22:48.240
<v Speaker 9>this year, or at least the same as last year.

0:22:48.800 --> 0:22:51.719
<v Speaker 9>And to do that, about half our cutting back on

0:22:51.840 --> 0:22:55.600
<v Speaker 9>other expenses and are looking for deals and discounts and

0:22:55.680 --> 0:22:58.679
<v Speaker 9>ways to stretch that travel budget further. So the demand

0:22:58.760 --> 0:23:01.280
<v Speaker 9>is there, but so is that sensitivity and a little

0:23:01.280 --> 0:23:03.600
<v Speaker 9>bit of concern about being able to afford travel.

0:23:03.760 --> 0:23:05.960
<v Speaker 4>Are we too late, Haley? If we haven't booked our

0:23:05.960 --> 0:23:07.040
<v Speaker 4>holiday travel yet.

0:23:07.840 --> 0:23:10.760
<v Speaker 9>You're not too late. Now is actually the perfect time

0:23:10.840 --> 0:23:14.560
<v Speaker 9>to start planning your holiday travel. Our recommendation at Hopper

0:23:14.640 --> 0:23:17.960
<v Speaker 9>is book your holiday travel both for Thanksgiving and Christmas

0:23:18.040 --> 0:23:22.200
<v Speaker 9>by October fourteenth. That's the sweet spot when prices will

0:23:22.200 --> 0:23:25.120
<v Speaker 9>be at their lowest and flights won't be sold out yet.

0:23:25.480 --> 0:23:29.399
<v Speaker 3>All right, So you know, in terms of where folks

0:23:29.440 --> 0:23:32.120
<v Speaker 3>are going, where they should be going, where there are deals,

0:23:32.359 --> 0:23:33.200
<v Speaker 3>what do you have for us?

0:23:34.800 --> 0:23:37.680
<v Speaker 9>Most folks are headed to bigger cities in the US

0:23:37.760 --> 0:23:40.520
<v Speaker 9>over the holiday season. We see a lot of major

0:23:40.680 --> 0:23:45.840
<v Speaker 9>hubs think New York City, La, Chicago, Atlanta. Most travelers

0:23:45.840 --> 0:23:48.119
<v Speaker 9>going to bestic are headed home for the holidays, so

0:23:48.160 --> 0:23:50.919
<v Speaker 9>they're hitting those hubs and then either being picked up

0:23:51.040 --> 0:23:54.400
<v Speaker 9>or going some more local. But internationally, we do see

0:23:54.520 --> 0:23:57.800
<v Speaker 9>a lot of travelers getting away, making a week of it,

0:23:57.880 --> 0:24:01.600
<v Speaker 9>whether it be at Thanksgiving or Christmas, and those destinations

0:24:01.720 --> 0:24:06.840
<v Speaker 9>are bigger names like London, Paris, Tokyo, and soul Haley.

0:24:06.880 --> 0:24:12.199
<v Speaker 4>What does the activity on Hopper tell you about disposable

0:24:12.200 --> 0:24:14.679
<v Speaker 4>income for Americans right now? What story does it tell

0:24:14.880 --> 0:24:17.200
<v Speaker 4>us about the economy. What's the narrative that you're seeing

0:24:17.200 --> 0:24:17.600
<v Speaker 4>out there.

0:24:18.960 --> 0:24:22.840
<v Speaker 9>The majority of Hopper users are Gen Z and millennial.

0:24:22.920 --> 0:24:27.480
<v Speaker 9>They're younger and they spend differently than older generations. What

0:24:27.520 --> 0:24:31.280
<v Speaker 9>we've seen is that our users are willing to spend

0:24:31.280 --> 0:24:36.200
<v Speaker 9>on travel. They're expanding their travel expenditure, and how they're

0:24:36.240 --> 0:24:39.000
<v Speaker 9>doing that is being smart about when they book, so

0:24:39.080 --> 0:24:42.399
<v Speaker 9>they might get the lowest price on their airfare, but

0:24:42.520 --> 0:24:46.480
<v Speaker 9>then they'll spend forty dollars extra on a product like

0:24:46.800 --> 0:24:51.240
<v Speaker 9>cancel for any reason or disruption assistance. So it's a

0:24:51.359 --> 0:24:55.680
<v Speaker 9>generation of travelers who are price sensitive but very focused

0:24:55.680 --> 0:24:58.240
<v Speaker 9>on value. They want to get the best price and

0:24:58.280 --> 0:25:00.760
<v Speaker 9>they want to splurge on things are going to improve

0:25:00.800 --> 0:25:04.800
<v Speaker 9>their experience, whether it's a fancy cruise or a product

0:25:04.840 --> 0:25:07.560
<v Speaker 9>that lets them rebook if they're canceled or delay to

0:25:07.640 --> 0:25:08.520
<v Speaker 9>the airport. Hailey.

0:25:08.560 --> 0:25:11.320
<v Speaker 4>If people do have flexibility, what are the best days

0:25:11.359 --> 0:25:13.359
<v Speaker 4>to book holiday travel? I was actually looking at the

0:25:13.359 --> 0:25:16.000
<v Speaker 4>difference between like flying on Christmas and New Year's Day,

0:25:16.000 --> 0:25:18.600
<v Speaker 4>for example, and how much cheaper that was than flying

0:25:18.640 --> 0:25:21.320
<v Speaker 4>let's say the Saturday before Christmas and then flying back

0:25:21.359 --> 0:25:22.919
<v Speaker 4>the Sunday before New Year's I mean it was like

0:25:23.160 --> 0:25:24.760
<v Speaker 4>sixty percent of the cost.

0:25:25.680 --> 0:25:30.040
<v Speaker 9>Absolutely, it'll actually save you, on average about two hundred

0:25:30.080 --> 0:25:34.120
<v Speaker 9>dollars on any domestic holiday trip if you travel on

0:25:34.200 --> 0:25:38.080
<v Speaker 9>the holiday itself, thank Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Thanksgiving Day.

0:25:38.680 --> 0:25:41.440
<v Speaker 9>We know not all travelers are that flexible. So if

0:25:41.480 --> 0:25:44.640
<v Speaker 9>you are a little bit flexible and you can travel,

0:25:44.880 --> 0:25:48.800
<v Speaker 9>say the Monday before Thanksgiving and return the Monday after,

0:25:49.080 --> 0:25:52.600
<v Speaker 9>skip that Sunday return, you will save over one hundred

0:25:52.640 --> 0:25:55.600
<v Speaker 9>dollars per ticket. And at Christmas, what you have to

0:25:55.640 --> 0:25:59.320
<v Speaker 9>avoid is the Saturday to Saturday or Sunday to Sunday,

0:25:59.680 --> 0:26:01.160
<v Speaker 9>making a week of the holiday.

0:26:01.600 --> 0:26:02.639
<v Speaker 8>Try to depart the.

0:26:02.680 --> 0:26:06.400
<v Speaker 9>Day before Christmas Eve or on Christmas Eve, come back

0:26:06.400 --> 0:26:07.959
<v Speaker 9>on New Year's Eve. That's how you're going to get

0:26:07.960 --> 0:26:08.639
<v Speaker 9>the lowest price.

0:26:08.720 --> 0:26:10.360
<v Speaker 3>Hey, I want to go back though, to what tim

0:26:10.400 --> 0:26:16.720
<v Speaker 3>aster about discretionary spending or disposable income or disposable spending money,

0:26:16.720 --> 0:26:18.879
<v Speaker 3>if you will that consumers have do you feel like

0:26:18.920 --> 0:26:22.120
<v Speaker 3>there's any signs that consumers are really really pulling back.

0:26:24.160 --> 0:26:28.080
<v Speaker 9>What we're hearing is that pullback isn't happening on travel,

0:26:28.200 --> 0:26:31.920
<v Speaker 9>but it is happening elsewhere. About fifty percent of our

0:26:31.960 --> 0:26:35.800
<v Speaker 9>customers said, I'm going to cut back on other expenses

0:26:36.400 --> 0:26:38.520
<v Speaker 9>in the next couple of months so that I can

0:26:38.640 --> 0:26:42.640
<v Speaker 9>keep spending on my holiday travel. So there's definitely pressure

0:26:42.760 --> 0:26:47.280
<v Speaker 9>on wallets. Discretionary spending is under pressure, but travel has

0:26:47.359 --> 0:26:50.240
<v Speaker 9>really come out on top as one of those areas

0:26:50.240 --> 0:26:53.920
<v Speaker 9>where travelers are working hard to maintain their expenditure.

0:26:54.040 --> 0:26:56.680
<v Speaker 3>All right, and before you go, those elder millennials like Tim,

0:26:56.720 --> 0:26:58.960
<v Speaker 3>are they going on cruise ships? Are they doing? What

0:26:59.000 --> 0:27:00.600
<v Speaker 3>are you hearing about the cruise? And just cut about

0:27:00.640 --> 0:27:01.720
<v Speaker 3>twenty five seconds left.

0:27:03.000 --> 0:27:06.439
<v Speaker 9>You know, we're hearing that younger travelers are interested in

0:27:06.680 --> 0:27:12.080
<v Speaker 9>value and packages. They want accommodations, transportation, and a great

0:27:12.119 --> 0:27:14.920
<v Speaker 9>experience at a great price. So cruises are one way

0:27:14.960 --> 0:27:18.480
<v Speaker 9>that they're achieving that. Other ways are finding great deals,

0:27:18.560 --> 0:27:21.720
<v Speaker 9>package deals, whether it be through a platform like Hopper

0:27:21.880 --> 0:27:22.920
<v Speaker 9>or one Travel.

0:27:23.200 --> 0:27:25.200
<v Speaker 3>So Tim on Theledo deck, it could happen.

0:27:25.359 --> 0:27:26.639
<v Speaker 4>I don't even know what that means.

0:27:27.280 --> 0:27:29.320
<v Speaker 3>That makes me just so upset that you don't know that,

0:27:29.359 --> 0:27:31.919
<v Speaker 3>all right, Hilliburg, thank you so much. Lead economist ever

0:27:31.960 --> 0:27:33.640
<v Speaker 3>at Hopper, you're.

0:27:33.440 --> 0:27:36.960
<v Speaker 2>Listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live

0:27:37.040 --> 0:27:40.080
<v Speaker 2>weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen on

0:27:40.160 --> 0:27:42.680
<v Speaker 2>Apple car Play and then brout Auto with a Bloomberg

0:27:42.720 --> 0:27:46.320
<v Speaker 2>Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

0:27:47.080 --> 0:27:49.720
<v Speaker 4>You might remember this Carol over the summer. Yeah, City

0:27:49.720 --> 0:27:51.639
<v Speaker 4>Group came out with the study. They said AI is

0:27:51.760 --> 0:27:54.439
<v Speaker 4>likely to displace more jobs across the banking industry than

0:27:54.480 --> 0:27:57.000
<v Speaker 4>in any other sector. As the tech is poised up

0:27:57.000 --> 0:27:59.920
<v Speaker 4>in consumer finance, it's going to make workers more productive.

0:28:00.400 --> 0:28:02.760
<v Speaker 4>About fifty four percent of jobs across banking have a

0:28:02.840 --> 0:28:05.240
<v Speaker 4>high potential to be automated, the bank set in that

0:28:05.359 --> 0:28:08.480
<v Speaker 4>June report, an additional twelve percent of roles across the

0:28:08.480 --> 0:28:11.720
<v Speaker 4>industry could be augmented with the technology City Group found.

0:28:12.200 --> 0:28:15.920
<v Speaker 4>This is Carily Close's world. She's Global Talent and Organization

0:28:16.040 --> 0:28:18.840
<v Speaker 4>lead at Accenture, where she works on projects that use

0:28:19.000 --> 0:28:21.520
<v Speaker 4>data and tech like AI to figure out new ways

0:28:22.000 --> 0:28:25.080
<v Speaker 4>of work, new ways to work. She joins us from Victoria,

0:28:25.200 --> 0:28:29.040
<v Speaker 4>British Columbia. Carollly, good to have you with us. Are

0:28:29.040 --> 0:28:34.320
<v Speaker 4>we approaching the conversation about AI correctly or incorrectly when

0:28:34.320 --> 0:28:34.960
<v Speaker 4>it comes to work.

0:28:36.560 --> 0:28:40.200
<v Speaker 8>It's a great question. I think it is correctly in

0:28:40.280 --> 0:28:44.840
<v Speaker 8>that it is fundamentally changing the way that work gets done,

0:28:45.560 --> 0:28:48.760
<v Speaker 8>and it is fundamentally changing jobs. But I think the

0:28:48.840 --> 0:28:51.920
<v Speaker 8>narrative ends up being a little negative the job loss.

0:28:52.040 --> 0:28:54.560
<v Speaker 8>I think we're going to need to learn new ways

0:28:54.560 --> 0:28:58.480
<v Speaker 8>of working with technology, as we've done with spreadsheets and

0:28:58.600 --> 0:29:01.840
<v Speaker 8>other applications, and we're going to need to learn alongside

0:29:01.880 --> 0:29:05.520
<v Speaker 8>this new technology. But you know, I do think it's

0:29:05.560 --> 0:29:08.840
<v Speaker 8>going to be one of the more fundamental shifts in

0:29:10.000 --> 0:29:12.680
<v Speaker 8>the working world over the next few years.

0:29:12.880 --> 0:29:14.440
<v Speaker 3>Can you can you walk us through some of the

0:29:14.480 --> 0:29:17.440
<v Speaker 3>specific examples that you guys are seeing, maybe at accenture

0:29:17.680 --> 0:29:23.760
<v Speaker 3>specifically on how it's changed AI, generative AI, large language models,

0:29:23.760 --> 0:29:26.400
<v Speaker 3>how it's changing how you guys work already.

0:29:27.840 --> 0:29:31.600
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, so, I think it's quite publicly known. We've got

0:29:31.640 --> 0:29:36.000
<v Speaker 8>over over a thousand client projects with jen Ai. We're

0:29:36.040 --> 0:29:39.880
<v Speaker 8>also using gen AI in the delivery of our work

0:29:40.080 --> 0:29:44.080
<v Speaker 8>quite extensively, and some examples of that, I guess in

0:29:44.120 --> 0:29:47.000
<v Speaker 8>the client side of things, we're seeing a real movement

0:29:47.320 --> 0:29:53.800
<v Speaker 8>in call centers and in marketing where the combination of data,

0:29:54.400 --> 0:29:58.160
<v Speaker 8>AI and jen AI is actually creating new ways of

0:29:59.120 --> 0:30:03.160
<v Speaker 8>solving customers issues, whether that's you know, whether you need

0:30:03.200 --> 0:30:05.480
<v Speaker 8>a call center in the first place, or how you

0:30:05.520 --> 0:30:09.960
<v Speaker 8>handle calls, to how you manage content and marketing, messaging

0:30:10.040 --> 0:30:14.680
<v Speaker 8>and the like. Internally with an accenter, we're exploring the

0:30:14.800 --> 0:30:17.120
<v Speaker 8>use of AI and jen AI and everything we do

0:30:17.200 --> 0:30:22.400
<v Speaker 8>from how we understand client's issues from external data to

0:30:23.000 --> 0:30:25.480
<v Speaker 8>know how we actually deliver projects and work.

0:30:25.680 --> 0:30:27.320
<v Speaker 3>I want to ask you about call centers only because

0:30:27.320 --> 0:30:29.680
<v Speaker 3>I've gotten lost in a couple over the last week

0:30:29.760 --> 0:30:30.080
<v Speaker 3>or so.

0:30:30.080 --> 0:30:32.920
<v Speaker 4>So what physically it's like you're walking around call centers

0:30:33.000 --> 0:30:33.760
<v Speaker 4>or you're calling numbers?

0:30:33.880 --> 0:30:34.840
<v Speaker 3>Kind of lost my mind?

0:30:35.000 --> 0:30:37.480
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think you know where.

0:30:36.840 --> 0:30:38.360
<v Speaker 3>It's like, you know, you're talking and it's like, well,

0:30:38.400 --> 0:30:42.000
<v Speaker 3>I want to know more. Is that what AI? Generative

0:30:42.000 --> 0:30:44.840
<v Speaker 3>AI is? If we don't have huge like I'll be

0:30:44.880 --> 0:30:47.120
<v Speaker 3>honest with you, I just kept like hammering until I

0:30:47.160 --> 0:30:49.360
<v Speaker 3>could get to a human and then a human that

0:30:49.440 --> 0:30:52.640
<v Speaker 3>got me to a supervisor to really resolve a problem.

0:30:53.000 --> 0:30:56.240
<v Speaker 3>And I wonder what does generative AI mean in terms

0:30:56.280 --> 0:30:58.840
<v Speaker 3>of call centers, and especially if it means reduced humans?

0:30:58.880 --> 0:31:01.120
<v Speaker 3>Is it just a case that I keep getting options

0:31:01.160 --> 0:31:03.600
<v Speaker 3>and drilling down. Is that what it's all about, because

0:31:03.600 --> 0:31:08.520
<v Speaker 3>there are times where you need a human's brain to

0:31:08.640 --> 0:31:11.720
<v Speaker 3>kind of understand what you were talking about. Not every

0:31:12.000 --> 0:31:13.720
<v Speaker 3>problem fits into a box.

0:31:15.200 --> 0:31:17.480
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, and I think that's exactly right. And when you

0:31:17.520 --> 0:31:19.640
<v Speaker 8>think about it, a call center is set up to

0:31:20.320 --> 0:31:22.720
<v Speaker 8>resolve an issue that shouldn't have maybe happened in the

0:31:22.720 --> 0:31:26.600
<v Speaker 8>first place. So quite oftentimes I think, you know, you

0:31:26.640 --> 0:31:29.320
<v Speaker 8>could say, well, let's just you know, add AI to

0:31:29.480 --> 0:31:33.240
<v Speaker 8>an existing construct, but I don't think that's the real impact.

0:31:33.320 --> 0:31:36.640
<v Speaker 8>I think the real impact is really reimagining the way

0:31:36.680 --> 0:31:40.720
<v Speaker 8>that work gets done, and so really reimagining what happens

0:31:40.720 --> 0:31:43.520
<v Speaker 8>in a call center and what doesn't and how you

0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:47.640
<v Speaker 8>use the technology to amplify the experience or improve the

0:31:47.720 --> 0:31:51.000
<v Speaker 8>experience that a customer or an employee would have is

0:31:51.040 --> 0:31:55.040
<v Speaker 8>sort of where we're seeing the big impact. But we're

0:31:55.400 --> 0:32:00.400
<v Speaker 8>seeing actually about forty percent of working hours will will

0:32:00.440 --> 0:32:03.720
<v Speaker 8>shift as a result of using AI and gen AI,

0:32:04.200 --> 0:32:08.040
<v Speaker 8>and so really we encourage clients to really reimagine work

0:32:08.800 --> 0:32:11.760
<v Speaker 8>and reimagine the skills that you need to do the work,

0:32:11.880 --> 0:32:15.200
<v Speaker 8>so you know, fundamentally what happens in a call center

0:32:15.400 --> 0:32:18.840
<v Speaker 8>should be reimagined, not just you know, automating the call

0:32:18.880 --> 0:32:24.000
<v Speaker 8>flow that happens, but really more fundamentally redesigning processes so

0:32:24.040 --> 0:32:27.320
<v Speaker 8>that the humans are doing the really value added activity

0:32:27.320 --> 0:32:29.120
<v Speaker 8>and the technology does the other things.

0:32:30.200 --> 0:32:33.560
<v Speaker 4>I'm wondering, Carey, when you look out at the landscape,

0:32:33.600 --> 0:32:35.440
<v Speaker 4>given all the work that you've done, how much you

0:32:35.440 --> 0:32:37.960
<v Speaker 4>know about the space. What's a company out there that's

0:32:38.000 --> 0:32:39.160
<v Speaker 4>doing this really well.

0:32:41.320 --> 0:32:41.480
<v Speaker 5>Well.

0:32:41.520 --> 0:32:47.320
<v Speaker 8>We step away from making specific examples of individual companies,

0:32:48.040 --> 0:32:50.480
<v Speaker 8>but I think the companies that are doing this really

0:32:50.520 --> 0:32:54.960
<v Speaker 8>well are they're reimagining the way that work gets done,

0:32:55.120 --> 0:32:59.360
<v Speaker 8>and they're not layering new technology on old problems, but

0:32:59.400 --> 0:33:02.520
<v Speaker 8>they're really solving the problems in a different way. And

0:33:02.680 --> 0:33:06.600
<v Speaker 8>in that they're redesigning the work and they're adapting the

0:33:06.680 --> 0:33:12.480
<v Speaker 8>workforce so the skills that happen within work. So we're

0:33:12.520 --> 0:33:17.120
<v Speaker 8>finding actually that ninety five percent of people are really

0:33:17.160 --> 0:33:19.920
<v Speaker 8>ready to learn new skills to work with GENAI, but

0:33:20.040 --> 0:33:23.760
<v Speaker 8>only five percent of organizations are actually changing the way

0:33:24.320 --> 0:33:29.280
<v Speaker 8>the workforce shows up actually reskilling their workforce. And so

0:33:29.360 --> 0:33:32.680
<v Speaker 8>while the companies that are doing this well are not

0:33:32.840 --> 0:33:36.120
<v Speaker 8>just saying well, add copilot or add a piece of

0:33:36.720 --> 0:33:41.520
<v Speaker 8>GENI onto an existing workflow, but they're really refundamentally redesigning

0:33:41.560 --> 0:33:47.000
<v Speaker 8>work and they're revisiting their learning and talent strategies to

0:33:47.080 --> 0:33:52.000
<v Speaker 8>give people access to the opportunity to develop much more quickly.

0:33:52.640 --> 0:33:55.120
<v Speaker 8>And there's a real gap between the skills that we

0:33:55.200 --> 0:33:57.840
<v Speaker 8>need in the future and the skills that we have,

0:33:58.440 --> 0:34:03.000
<v Speaker 8>and so the leading companies are really adopting their skills

0:34:03.040 --> 0:34:07.840
<v Speaker 8>and learning organizations in order to provide opportunities for people

0:34:07.920 --> 0:34:11.080
<v Speaker 8>to learn and grow at their organization.

0:34:11.280 --> 0:34:12.920
<v Speaker 3>Carly, one thing I do. So I'm listening to you

0:34:12.960 --> 0:34:14.840
<v Speaker 3>talk about what organizations need to do to kind of

0:34:14.840 --> 0:34:17.759
<v Speaker 3>rescale workers or make sure their workers have the right skills. So,

0:34:20.080 --> 0:34:23.120
<v Speaker 3>in a generative AI world where people are working hand

0:34:23.160 --> 0:34:26.600
<v Speaker 3>in hand with or some workers or call center individuals

0:34:26.640 --> 0:34:30.000
<v Speaker 3>who work there are working with AI, do they need

0:34:30.000 --> 0:34:31.920
<v Speaker 3>college degrees? Is it a case they get to a

0:34:31.960 --> 0:34:34.320
<v Speaker 3>company and they get trained, Like, how are we thinking

0:34:34.360 --> 0:34:37.040
<v Speaker 3>about what skills are really needed?

0:34:38.400 --> 0:34:40.279
<v Speaker 8>Yeah? And it's a very good point. I mean, I

0:34:40.320 --> 0:34:44.240
<v Speaker 8>actually think there's a whole reinvention of talent and learning

0:34:44.280 --> 0:34:46.200
<v Speaker 8>that will happen as a result of this, which can

0:34:46.239 --> 0:34:50.640
<v Speaker 8>be quite exciting because a more fluid opportunity to develop

0:34:50.680 --> 0:34:53.000
<v Speaker 8>at a different pace, and it's going to be exciting

0:34:53.040 --> 0:34:56.480
<v Speaker 8>for workers against that as like sixty one percent of

0:34:56.520 --> 0:34:59.919
<v Speaker 8>workers are globally going to need retraining by twenty twenty seven,

0:35:00.080 --> 0:35:03.239
<v Speaker 8>that's not too far away. And so that whole like

0:35:03.280 --> 0:35:05.799
<v Speaker 8>I go to school, I learn something, and then I

0:35:05.840 --> 0:35:09.120
<v Speaker 8>get hired to do a job, and leading companies are

0:35:09.120 --> 0:35:13.000
<v Speaker 8>really thinking about that differently, so thinking about the skills

0:35:13.040 --> 0:35:17.200
<v Speaker 8>that they have, the characteristics of the people that they're hiring,

0:35:17.280 --> 0:35:19.719
<v Speaker 8>and how to develop those skills at a different rate.

0:35:20.400 --> 0:35:24.360
<v Speaker 8>So giving you a differentiated learning path, and that learning

0:35:24.400 --> 0:35:27.560
<v Speaker 8>path isn't just about going to training, it's about a

0:35:27.560 --> 0:35:30.840
<v Speaker 8>different experience that you have doing the work that you're doing,

0:35:31.840 --> 0:35:34.239
<v Speaker 8>and a work learn fusion we like to call it.

0:35:34.360 --> 0:35:38.200
<v Speaker 8>So the opportunity to learn on the job and be

0:35:38.320 --> 0:35:41.920
<v Speaker 8>provided with new opportunities to not only learn but also

0:35:42.040 --> 0:35:46.560
<v Speaker 8>developed skill is I think a source of innovation and

0:35:46.560 --> 0:35:50.840
<v Speaker 8>resilience for companies that it's going to require another level

0:35:51.080 --> 0:35:55.600
<v Speaker 8>of innovation around corporate learning and development and also career

0:35:55.680 --> 0:36:00.960
<v Speaker 8>paths to provide people with flexible opportunities to developed skills

0:36:01.360 --> 0:36:06.080
<v Speaker 8>and particularly help people develop skills in directions that meet

0:36:06.120 --> 0:36:09.120
<v Speaker 8>workforce need. If you think about like five years of

0:36:09.160 --> 0:36:11.840
<v Speaker 8>workforce planning, like a lot of organizations will deal like

0:36:11.880 --> 0:36:14.200
<v Speaker 8>a multi year plan, I think we're going to see

0:36:14.239 --> 0:36:18.360
<v Speaker 8>a lot more near term and understanding of the skills

0:36:18.400 --> 0:36:21.840
<v Speaker 8>you have, the skills you need, and then flexibility and

0:36:22.040 --> 0:36:26.520
<v Speaker 8>adapting those skills, whether that's sourcing them from different locations

0:36:26.640 --> 0:36:29.440
<v Speaker 8>or whether that's developing them internally. And that's going to

0:36:29.440 --> 0:36:31.719
<v Speaker 8>be a source of advantage for the companies that get

0:36:31.719 --> 0:36:32.040
<v Speaker 8>it right.

0:36:32.160 --> 0:36:35.680
<v Speaker 4>Hey, Kelly, if you were advising recent graduates from college,

0:36:35.760 --> 0:36:38.040
<v Speaker 4>or people who are entering college right now, or even

0:36:38.040 --> 0:36:40.439
<v Speaker 4>people in high school because maybe college isn't even part

0:36:40.440 --> 0:36:43.360
<v Speaker 4>of the equation for a career like this or a

0:36:43.400 --> 0:36:46.200
<v Speaker 4>world like this, what would you advise them to do?

0:36:48.400 --> 0:36:51.680
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I think I would advise people to I have

0:36:52.080 --> 0:36:55.160
<v Speaker 8>a child that's going to start college very soon, and

0:36:55.200 --> 0:36:59.719
<v Speaker 8>so it's a very near term piece of advice. I

0:36:59.719 --> 0:37:02.799
<v Speaker 8>think the opportunity or the willingness that you have to

0:37:02.920 --> 0:37:05.680
<v Speaker 8>learn and innovate throughout your career is going to be important.

0:37:06.680 --> 0:37:11.640
<v Speaker 8>So learning to learn and learning to adapt the skills

0:37:11.680 --> 0:37:13.880
<v Speaker 8>that you have is going to be important. Right, So

0:37:14.160 --> 0:37:17.279
<v Speaker 8>ninety percent of CEOs say that talent scarcity and lack

0:37:17.320 --> 0:37:20.440
<v Speaker 8>of skilled workers is going to be one of the

0:37:20.440 --> 0:37:24.799
<v Speaker 8>top five business issues. So being able to learn on

0:37:24.880 --> 0:37:27.759
<v Speaker 8>the job and be being able to be flexible and

0:37:27.880 --> 0:37:30.879
<v Speaker 8>innovative and creative. And the other thing is I think

0:37:30.920 --> 0:37:34.480
<v Speaker 8>the technology is never going to replace things like empathy

0:37:34.600 --> 0:37:39.959
<v Speaker 8>and creative creative activities, and so thinking about like how

0:37:40.040 --> 0:37:45.120
<v Speaker 8>you enhance your emotional intelligence and your aptitude for learning,

0:37:45.160 --> 0:37:47.680
<v Speaker 8>it's going to be as important as which college you pick.

0:37:49.120 --> 0:37:49.520
<v Speaker 1>I like that.

0:37:49.840 --> 0:37:54.280
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, interesting, Hey thirty seconds. Just quickly the work your

0:37:54.320 --> 0:37:57.240
<v Speaker 3>demands are hiring. Anything that you're seeing that's a slow

0:37:57.280 --> 0:38:00.480
<v Speaker 3>down that you're not seeing as much work, because we're

0:38:00.480 --> 0:38:02.000
<v Speaker 3>starting to see that some of the statistics and just

0:38:02.080 --> 0:38:03.360
<v Speaker 3>got about twenty five seconds.

0:38:04.440 --> 0:38:06.880
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, there's a I slow down in some sectors and

0:38:06.920 --> 0:38:09.160
<v Speaker 8>in an uptick in other sectors. And actually if you

0:38:09.280 --> 0:38:11.680
<v Speaker 8>sort of go into it, there's different geos where you're

0:38:11.680 --> 0:38:16.279
<v Speaker 8>seeing up and down. We are seeing I think I

0:38:16.520 --> 0:38:20.840
<v Speaker 8>continued demand around technology skills, and I think that's a

0:38:22.239 --> 0:38:24.720
<v Speaker 8>strong signal for us going forward.

0:38:25.280 --> 0:38:28.360
<v Speaker 4>Fairly close. Thanks so much for joining us on Bloomberg

0:38:28.800 --> 0:38:31.320
<v Speaker 4>Global Talent and Organization lead over at Eccentric.

0:38:32.400 --> 0:38:36.520
<v Speaker 1>Bromuck on the journal.

0:38:37.520 --> 0:38:38.480
<v Speaker 3>How about you let me drive?

0:38:38.760 --> 0:38:40.799
<v Speaker 4>Oh no, no, no, no, who's going to drive?

0:38:41.040 --> 0:38:42.160
<v Speaker 2>Honey?

0:38:42.360 --> 0:38:42.680
<v Speaker 8>Please?

0:38:42.800 --> 0:38:46.040
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the riding gravels. Let's wat I want to drive?

0:38:46.040 --> 0:38:54.480
<v Speaker 2>It's good question. Try this is the drive to the

0:38:54.520 --> 0:38:56.200
<v Speaker 2>globe punk commune.

0:38:56.360 --> 0:38:59.359
<v Speaker 1>Well build it on Bloemberg radio.

0:38:59.600 --> 0:39:02.040
<v Speaker 3>All right, but just under eighteen minutes left in today's

0:39:02.040 --> 0:39:04.640
<v Speaker 3>trading session, getting ready to wrap up that Thursday trade.

0:39:04.719 --> 0:39:07.239
<v Speaker 3>Bouncing around, but we're not. We're just a little bit

0:39:07.280 --> 0:39:09.279
<v Speaker 3>off our highs of the session. So, as you heard

0:39:09.320 --> 0:39:11.840
<v Speaker 3>from Charlie, still about one percent higher on the Nasdaq

0:39:11.880 --> 0:39:14.400
<v Speaker 3>one hundred s and P five hundred again of almost

0:39:14.480 --> 0:39:16.919
<v Speaker 3>eight tens of a percent. This as we got another

0:39:16.960 --> 0:39:21.080
<v Speaker 3>readown on inflation, a read on weekly jobless that coming

0:39:21.120 --> 0:39:24.520
<v Speaker 3>a little bit weaker, slightly hotter on the inflation print.

0:39:24.600 --> 0:39:27.759
<v Speaker 3>Another two days in a row, slightly hotter inflation prints.

0:39:27.760 --> 0:39:29.080
<v Speaker 3>And then we've got the FED meeting next week.

0:39:29.520 --> 0:39:31.960
<v Speaker 4>So let's go to one of our go tos. Back

0:39:32.000 --> 0:39:34.160
<v Speaker 4>with us. Aaron Kennon, he's co founder and CEO over

0:39:34.160 --> 0:39:36.480
<v Speaker 4>at Clear Harber Asset Management. They've got more than one

0:39:36.520 --> 0:39:39.080
<v Speaker 4>point five billion dollars in assets under management. Joins us

0:39:39.120 --> 0:39:42.320
<v Speaker 4>from Stamford, Connecticut. Aaron, good to see you happy.

0:39:42.960 --> 0:39:43.400
<v Speaker 2>I don't want to.

0:39:43.400 --> 0:39:45.560
<v Speaker 4>It's not the end of summer yet, Carol. You know

0:39:45.680 --> 0:39:47.839
<v Speaker 4>officially almost.

0:39:47.560 --> 0:39:50.680
<v Speaker 3>End of the days are getting shorter. They're wrestling, the

0:39:50.800 --> 0:39:53.400
<v Speaker 3>acorns are falling. I know, okay.

0:39:53.560 --> 0:39:58.800
<v Speaker 4>Anyway, say Aaron, next week J Powell twenty five, is

0:39:58.840 --> 0:39:59.440
<v Speaker 4>that what's going to be?

0:40:00.719 --> 0:40:04.440
<v Speaker 10>It looks that way, although there's one hundred percent, one

0:40:04.480 --> 0:40:08.560
<v Speaker 10>hundred basis point cut between now and year end priced

0:40:08.600 --> 0:40:11.600
<v Speaker 10>into the FED fund's futures market, and so that would

0:40:11.600 --> 0:40:14.040
<v Speaker 10>suggest that at some point, if the market's correct, well,

0:40:14.120 --> 0:40:16.480
<v Speaker 10>we would need to see a fifty. I think a

0:40:16.600 --> 0:40:18.560
<v Speaker 10>fifty next week could could.

0:40:18.400 --> 0:40:19.560
<v Speaker 4>Do more harm than good.

0:40:20.840 --> 0:40:24.320
<v Speaker 10>It seems as though the crowd of FOMC speakers prior

0:40:24.400 --> 0:40:28.440
<v Speaker 10>to the quiet session that we're in now have intimated

0:40:28.520 --> 0:40:31.799
<v Speaker 10>that they would embrace a cut that the data, as

0:40:31.840 --> 0:40:35.600
<v Speaker 10>you just allude to earlier PPI CPI has certainly trended

0:40:35.640 --> 0:40:39.680
<v Speaker 10>back towards the two percent target that the Fed has,

0:40:39.800 --> 0:40:43.160
<v Speaker 10>but it's not there yet. And we experienced in early

0:40:43.280 --> 0:40:48.960
<v Speaker 10>August what you know, currency volatility can do to overall

0:40:49.040 --> 0:40:51.920
<v Speaker 10>capital markets, particularly equities and fixed income. When we saw

0:40:52.040 --> 0:40:55.920
<v Speaker 10>that sort of yen carry unwind occurring, and so I

0:40:56.040 --> 0:40:58.160
<v Speaker 10>don't think a fifty basis point cut would help in

0:40:58.239 --> 0:41:01.040
<v Speaker 10>that regard, and I think the FED is very much

0:41:01.440 --> 0:41:03.400
<v Speaker 10>inclined to go twenty five at this point. We'll have

0:41:03.480 --> 0:41:03.759
<v Speaker 10>to see.

0:41:04.480 --> 0:41:07.640
<v Speaker 3>Hey, you know, I think about you know, you founded,

0:41:07.719 --> 0:41:10.279
<v Speaker 3>co founded your firm, you are the CEO of your firm,

0:41:10.360 --> 0:41:12.279
<v Speaker 3>and I'm just wondering, since the beginning days of it

0:41:12.400 --> 0:41:16.200
<v Speaker 3>and your time and money management, what's more difficult about

0:41:16.280 --> 0:41:17.840
<v Speaker 3>investing today? What's easier?

0:41:19.360 --> 0:41:22.200
<v Speaker 10>Oh my gosh, Well, there are many more products in

0:41:22.320 --> 0:41:25.920
<v Speaker 10>the marketplace, and so that can be a huge opportunity

0:41:26.920 --> 0:41:29.040
<v Speaker 10>because those products mean that there are different strategies. But

0:41:29.160 --> 0:41:32.000
<v Speaker 10>it also, as an allocator of capital on behalf of

0:41:32.120 --> 0:41:36.520
<v Speaker 10>clients can be a rather significant distraction. So I do

0:41:36.680 --> 0:41:39.200
<v Speaker 10>think that that's something that we as a firm need

0:41:40.040 --> 0:41:43.800
<v Speaker 10>constantly remind ourselves of because our day to day is,

0:41:44.040 --> 0:41:45.879
<v Speaker 10>you know, working on behalf of our clients and being

0:41:45.960 --> 0:41:49.200
<v Speaker 10>fiduciaries to them. So I think that's one variable that

0:41:49.440 --> 0:41:53.919
<v Speaker 10>certainly is different the growth of alternatives, the democratization of alternatives,

0:41:54.280 --> 0:41:58.600
<v Speaker 10>and that's a plus, But we sort of approach lots

0:41:58.640 --> 0:42:02.000
<v Speaker 10>of things with skepticism, including the market itself. You know,

0:42:02.080 --> 0:42:05.920
<v Speaker 10>we don't own everything, and so you know, parsing through

0:42:06.080 --> 0:42:09.800
<v Speaker 10>more in this day and age around these new products

0:42:09.880 --> 0:42:10.800
<v Speaker 10>is certainly challenging.

0:42:11.200 --> 0:42:16.319
<v Speaker 4>Okay, speaking of uncertainty moving forward, we haven't talked about

0:42:16.360 --> 0:42:19.200
<v Speaker 4>the debate today, Yeah, Carol, but it's still really have it.

0:42:19.440 --> 0:42:21.600
<v Speaker 4>But there's a Reuter's poll out that just came out

0:42:21.640 --> 0:42:24.320
<v Speaker 4>in the last couple of hours that actually shows some

0:42:24.400 --> 0:42:27.480
<v Speaker 4>gains for Kamala Harris post debate. We'll probably get more

0:42:27.520 --> 0:42:29.120
<v Speaker 4>polling on that in the coming days, but I do

0:42:29.239 --> 0:42:33.360
<v Speaker 4>want to bring that question to you aerin uncertainty around

0:42:33.360 --> 0:42:35.520
<v Speaker 4>the election and sort of how you're watching this from

0:42:35.560 --> 0:42:36.719
<v Speaker 4>an investment perspective.

0:42:37.880 --> 0:42:41.040
<v Speaker 10>Well, that's a big one. I mean, certainly we've seen

0:42:41.120 --> 0:42:44.360
<v Speaker 10>some ebbing and flowing on the polling side. This debate

0:42:44.560 --> 0:42:47.440
<v Speaker 10>was clearly a weaker one for the former president, a

0:42:47.520 --> 0:42:51.440
<v Speaker 10>stronger one for the vice the current vice president. I

0:42:51.480 --> 0:42:55.239
<v Speaker 10>think there are questions around spending, but that doesn't seem

0:42:55.280 --> 0:42:57.640
<v Speaker 10>to be something that either candidates focus on. There are

0:42:57.680 --> 0:43:01.640
<v Speaker 10>concerns about the growing debt to GDP deficit, again not

0:43:02.120 --> 0:43:05.880
<v Speaker 10>a topic dsure for either candidate, which is just stunning

0:43:06.360 --> 0:43:08.399
<v Speaker 10>at this moment where at the GDP is one hundred

0:43:08.400 --> 0:43:11.840
<v Speaker 10>and twenty percent and growing, and we wonder why gold's

0:43:11.880 --> 0:43:14.040
<v Speaker 10>reaching all time highs here today, up one and a

0:43:14.080 --> 0:43:19.440
<v Speaker 10>half percent. So I think tariffs will be a big question.

0:43:20.040 --> 0:43:22.640
<v Speaker 10>But again, it's been interesting the terriffs that the former

0:43:22.719 --> 0:43:27.719
<v Speaker 10>president has placed on countries and products. Many of those

0:43:27.800 --> 0:43:29.759
<v Speaker 10>terrafts are still in place. So are we going to

0:43:30.000 --> 0:43:32.439
<v Speaker 10>really have a changing of the guard. Regardless who wins

0:43:32.480 --> 0:43:36.279
<v Speaker 10>on the terraffront, it will be very interesting for us

0:43:36.360 --> 0:43:39.279
<v Speaker 10>to monitor that. I think the regulatory environment is an

0:43:39.320 --> 0:43:41.480
<v Speaker 10>area where we I think should expect a bit of

0:43:41.520 --> 0:43:45.280
<v Speaker 10>a change if the former president wins, generally less regulation.

0:43:45.920 --> 0:43:48.640
<v Speaker 10>I think the question around the sustainability investment that came

0:43:48.680 --> 0:43:54.080
<v Speaker 10>out of the Inflation Reduction Act, around solar products need

0:43:54.160 --> 0:43:58.240
<v Speaker 10>to primarily be made here in the US, for example,

0:43:58.360 --> 0:44:01.160
<v Speaker 10>maybe a big question mark. If he were to gain

0:44:01.200 --> 0:44:03.680
<v Speaker 10>in the polls, we could see some of those stocks

0:44:03.719 --> 0:44:06.240
<v Speaker 10>come under pressure post debate. We actually saw those stocks

0:44:06.360 --> 0:44:09.640
<v Speaker 10>yesterday rally quite significantly, and I think that was an

0:44:09.680 --> 0:44:12.880
<v Speaker 10>indication that, well, maybe Kamala Harris is in a position

0:44:13.680 --> 0:44:14.960
<v Speaker 10>to possibly win the election.

0:44:15.120 --> 0:44:15.759
<v Speaker 1>We'll have to see.

0:44:16.000 --> 0:44:19.280
<v Speaker 3>Hey, listen, do you think Aaron that. Listen, this has happened.

0:44:19.280 --> 0:44:22.239
<v Speaker 3>At the end of last year, right investors were saying, Oh,

0:44:22.239 --> 0:44:24.400
<v Speaker 3>we're gonna get six rate cuts. It's going to be

0:44:24.440 --> 0:44:26.600
<v Speaker 3>pretty aggressive in terms of the Fed. Well, it didn't happen.

0:44:26.719 --> 0:44:29.799
<v Speaker 3>Right here we are. That was the end of last

0:44:29.920 --> 0:44:32.520
<v Speaker 3>year going into the beginning of twenty twenty four. Here

0:44:32.560 --> 0:44:35.480
<v Speaker 3>we are September, mid September of twenty twenty four, and

0:44:35.520 --> 0:44:38.200
<v Speaker 3>we're still waiting for that first rate cut by the

0:44:38.239 --> 0:44:41.680
<v Speaker 3>Federal Reserve. It's expected next week. That expectation around one

0:44:41.719 --> 0:44:43.600
<v Speaker 3>hundred basis points of cuts. Do you think that is

0:44:43.680 --> 0:44:45.520
<v Speaker 3>There's a good chance that's way too aggressive.

0:44:45.560 --> 0:44:49.560
<v Speaker 10>Still, it could be, although it could break the other

0:44:49.680 --> 0:44:52.920
<v Speaker 10>way if the data were to suggest otherwise, if the

0:44:53.040 --> 0:44:55.600
<v Speaker 10>employment picture were to not just soften, but you know,

0:44:55.680 --> 0:44:57.840
<v Speaker 10>look like maybe it's breaking a little harder. If the

0:44:58.960 --> 0:45:02.320
<v Speaker 10>jobs claims were to like further they've they've been rising,

0:45:02.440 --> 0:45:05.520
<v Speaker 10>but spiking, you know, spiking further, the unemployment rate were

0:45:05.560 --> 0:45:08.800
<v Speaker 10>to accelerate to the upside even more than it already

0:45:08.840 --> 0:45:11.800
<v Speaker 10>has over the last three months, and so you know,

0:45:11.840 --> 0:45:15.400
<v Speaker 10>I think clearly, you know that's that's of concern. On

0:45:15.480 --> 0:45:19.919
<v Speaker 10>the flip side, I mentioned tariffs if increased tariffs had

0:45:19.960 --> 0:45:24.080
<v Speaker 10>an impact on the economy in raising prices, that that

0:45:24.200 --> 0:45:27.440
<v Speaker 10>could put the Fed on on watch for maybe being

0:45:27.480 --> 0:45:31.239
<v Speaker 10>a little less hawkish. And you know, so what we'll

0:45:31.360 --> 0:45:33.720
<v Speaker 10>we'll have to see on all those fronts.

0:45:34.239 --> 0:45:38.000
<v Speaker 4>What about geopolitics, Oh my gosh.

0:45:37.840 --> 0:45:42.120
<v Speaker 10>Well, we we certainly monitor what's happening. I mean, certainly

0:45:42.680 --> 0:45:45.280
<v Speaker 10>the economy in Europe is quite weak, Germany in particular,

0:45:45.440 --> 0:45:47.520
<v Speaker 10>largest economy in Europe. We're keeping our eye on that.

0:45:48.840 --> 0:45:51.560
<v Speaker 10>You know, what is happening in Ukraine and the sort

0:45:51.600 --> 0:45:56.440
<v Speaker 10>of Western world working with Ukraine in its response to

0:45:57.040 --> 0:46:01.880
<v Speaker 10>Russian it's Russian invasion. How we're dealing with with China

0:46:02.120 --> 0:46:05.560
<v Speaker 10>and what that may mean too for you know, how

0:46:05.600 --> 0:46:07.560
<v Speaker 10>we think about the dollar. You know, China may be

0:46:07.680 --> 0:46:11.200
<v Speaker 10>hesitant to buy dollar based fixed income assets to bolster

0:46:11.360 --> 0:46:14.480
<v Speaker 10>their reserves after looking at how and this is not

0:46:14.520 --> 0:46:16.879
<v Speaker 10>a criticism on my parts, it's an observation, but how

0:46:16.960 --> 0:46:21.719
<v Speaker 10>the West has dealt with freezing Russian central bank assets

0:46:21.840 --> 0:46:24.879
<v Speaker 10>after the invasion of Ukraine. All these things have huge

0:46:24.960 --> 0:46:28.520
<v Speaker 10>impacts on the sort of dollars ability to maintain its

0:46:28.640 --> 0:46:31.760
<v Speaker 10>rifle I believe place as a global reserve currency.

0:46:32.000 --> 0:46:34.960
<v Speaker 3>All right, Really appreciate it. Aaron, take care. Aaron Kennon

0:46:35.120 --> 0:46:38.520
<v Speaker 3>back with US co founder CEO Clear Harbor Asset Management,

0:46:38.600 --> 0:46:41.359
<v Speaker 3>joining us from Stanford, Connecticut. Are folks you are listening

0:46:41.400 --> 0:46:42.719
<v Speaker 3>and watching Bloomberg Business Week.

0:46:45.320 --> 0:46:48.279
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<v Speaker 10>M