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Speaker 3: Let's get to one of the most read stories on
Speaker 3: the Bloomberg about a really important company in our world.
Speaker 4: It's about the slow motion disaster at one of those
Speaker 4: most important companies in the modern tech industry. It's reaching
Speaker 4: a pivotal moment this week, so writes Ian King, Bloomberg
Speaker 4: News US semiconductor and networking reporter, in today's Bloomberg Big Take,
Speaker 4: which you can read on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg
Speaker 4: dot com slash Big Take.
Speaker 3: Yeah. In they're out speaking of property issues San Francisco.
Speaker 3: He's there in our San Francisco bureau. Ian I got
Speaker 3: to say, first of all, great story. We've been talking
Speaker 3: with you about the decline for Intel. I feel like
Speaker 3: more than a year, more than two years. It's been
Speaker 3: a while. We talk about this a lot. It feels
Speaker 3: like though it's coming to a head as you report.
Speaker 3: Tell us about the meetings that have been going on
Speaker 3: with Intel's board this week.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think it's important to be precise
Speaker 5: about our understanding of these meetings. These meetings that are
Speaker 5: going on, our board meetings. They're not the kind of
Speaker 5: barbarians at the gate, we're going to throw the management
Speaker 5: out type meetings yet, but they are considering basically what
Speaker 5: Intel should be doing, what perhaps it shouldn't be doing,
Speaker 5: in order to kind of martial resources to continue to
Speaker 5: try to fund this expansive plan that they have going forward. Clearly,
Speaker 5: its business operations are not able to do that right now.
Speaker 5: As we saw with its recent earnings release, things were
Speaker 5: considerably worse, and I think a lot of people had expected,
Speaker 5: including the management, And so really what this meeting is
Speaker 5: doing is trying to sort of get that track back
Speaker 5: on plan rather than potentially throw it out the window.
Speaker 4: So I give us context here about just how precarious
Speaker 4: Intel's finances are right now, help us understand that.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, it's very simple. They are trying to
Speaker 5: spend an enormous amount of money at a time when
Speaker 5: they do not have that money coming in from their operations.
Speaker 5: Right that what they were good at and what they
Speaker 5: are still quite good at isn't paying like it used to.
Speaker 1: They have fifty.
Speaker 5: Billion dollars in debt, They're losing money, they have negative
Speaker 5: cash flow, and they need to spend and continue to
Speaker 5: spend over a number of years on projects that probably
Speaker 5: won't pay off for a number of years. It's a
Speaker 5: very difficult situation to be in.
Speaker 3: Yeah, kind of amazing that this is what we're talking
Speaker 3: about in conjunction with Intel. Hey, another stark metric is
Speaker 3: the share price. It was once nearly a seventy five
Speaker 3: dollars a share stock. It's now below twenty a share.
Speaker 3: It's down more than sixty percent year to date, ninety
Speaker 3: percent gain though last year it got above fifty dollars
Speaker 3: this year, So that's a big swing in about a
Speaker 3: year or so. What are the ongoing disappointments? What are
Speaker 3: the hopes and possible pivots of this company that keeps
Speaker 3: it going for I don't know, years to come.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the share price I think has contributed
Speaker 5: to a lot of the speculation that we're seeing about.
Speaker 5: You know, where the company goes and who might be
Speaker 5: interested and is it affordable as a purchase. There's a
Speaker 5: lot of that going on outside of Intel. But to
Speaker 5: answer your question more directly, they need a win. They
Speaker 5: need a big customer for their foundry, their outsourced chip
Speaker 5: making effort that they're trying to get off the ground.
Speaker 5: They need some of these products that have been absolute
Speaker 5: dominant to return towards that to stop losing market share.
Speaker 5: They need this massive AI spend that we're seeing to
Speaker 5: look in their direction right now. That's just not the.
Speaker 4: Case in the US government. Part of the story in
Speaker 4: recent years as well, with the Biden administration. You know,
Speaker 4: the idea is that they're going to give billions of
Speaker 4: dollars to Intel help us understand the position of the
Speaker 4: US government and where they stand in this.
Speaker 5: Yeah, two aspects to that, And I think that's a
Speaker 5: very ger main question. All of the scenarios that are
Speaker 5: being floated outside of Intel about where it might be going,
Speaker 5: or who might buy it, or how it might.
Speaker 1: Be split up.
Speaker 5: The US government regards Intel as a strategic asset, that
Speaker 5: its technology is fundamentally important to this country. So all
Speaker 5: of those scenarios, and they are just scenarios at this point,
Speaker 5: would have to go through Washington, and Washington is going
Speaker 5: to take a very very critical look at those. So
Speaker 5: that adds a layer of complication, takes away from the
Speaker 5: standard Wall Street playbook in a lot of respects. And
Speaker 5: the other side of that is you mentioned the money
Speaker 5: that we are paying as taxpayers for Intel. It's not enough, right,
Speaker 5: It's helpful. It cuts out some of the differential in
Speaker 5: terms of what it costs Intel's overseas competitors to put
Speaker 5: plants in the ground, and hopefully makes it, you know,
Speaker 5: a level playing field. But it doesn't. It's not a bailout.
Speaker 5: It's not the kind of money that Intel needs. We're
Speaker 5: talking about ten of billions of dollars a year, over
Speaker 5: multiple years, just to play in this game.
Speaker 3: Hey, in one thing, I wonder in your story you
Speaker 3: take a look back at what happened to Intel and
Speaker 3: why we got to this point where we're having this
Speaker 3: conversation with you today, why you wrote this story today.
Speaker 3: Having said that, you also note in your story that
Speaker 3: it didn't have to come to this. Is there anything
Speaker 3: Intel can learn by looking backward in terms of where
Speaker 3: it needs to go forward?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 5: I mean, well, that's why Pat Gelsinger was brought in.
Speaker 5: That was a step backwards. He left Intel to become
Speaker 5: the VMware CEO at the height of its powers. His
Speaker 5: plan was to do what Intel's good at, leading manufacturing,
Speaker 5: have products that just are so good that people have
Speaker 5: to pay through the nose for them. That's his plan.
Speaker 5: That requires a lot of money. So that's what he's
Speaker 5: tried to go back to. But things have moved on
Speaker 5: since then. Competitors like TSMC, like Nvidia are now very strong,
Speaker 5: have the kind of dominance, have the kind of cloud
Speaker 5: that Intel used to have. So he's trying to you know,
Speaker 5: he's trying to play the greatest hits at a time
Speaker 5: when music cases have moved on.
Speaker 3: One thing, I do wonder if AI for a year
Speaker 3: and a half ago, you know, Microsoft didn't do you know,
Speaker 3: their investment in open AI and touchypt if that hadn't happened,
Speaker 3: and I know it's not a good way to do this,
Speaker 3: but if it hadn't happened, would you have written this
Speaker 3: story about Intel being at kind of a critical juncture?
Speaker 3: Would we not be having this conversation. Is it just
Speaker 3: AI or it's something much more systemic in the Intel
Speaker 3: culture that is just kind of brought about its problems.
Speaker 5: I would say that that's a very good question, and
Speaker 5: it's a mixture of the two. The AI opportunity has
Speaker 5: in shareholders' minds in technology, technology, and his mind has
Speaker 5: concentrated just how important and useful technology other than Intel's
Speaker 5: is right, And this was an opportunity that Intel should
Speaker 5: have taken and would have given it more time, would
Speaker 5: have given it more resources to be able to devote
Speaker 5: to putting some of these other things right. So it's
Speaker 5: a mixture of the two. It's definitely an accelerant, but
Speaker 5: it's not the root cause. The root cause are decisions
Speaker 5: that were made by Pat Gelsinger's predecessors, decisions that have
Speaker 5: turned out to have been terrible decisions. And indeed that's
Speaker 5: how he's characterized them.
Speaker 4: It's hard to ask you a question in about what
Speaker 4: things look like in the future, but help us imagine
Speaker 4: a scenario. Is there one where a storied company like
Speaker 4: Intel just doesn't exist in a few years.
Speaker 5: I mean the conversations that I've been having with people
Speaker 5: who look at the company, who have invested in the company,
Speaker 5: some of them who don't invest in the company. That
Speaker 5: is what it's come to. That it's the oh dear moment,
Speaker 5: shall we say, And even for that to be even
Speaker 5: a vague consideration around a company that just ruled the
Speaker 5: world like Intel did is frankly shocking. You've got to remember,
Speaker 5: I think the perfect illustrate of that is twenty twenty
Speaker 5: one was not long ago. They had three times as
Speaker 5: much total revenue as in Nvidia, and look where we
Speaker 5: are now.
Speaker 3: That's an incredible decline right when you think about their business.
Speaker 3: Ian is always great stuff, and I know we continue
Speaker 3: to talk about this company and we'll continue to see
Speaker 3: what the next chapter brings when it comes to Intel.
Speaker 3: All right, so appreciate it, Ian King, Thank you. Thank you,
Speaker 3: US semiconductor networking reporter at Bloomberg News out there in
Speaker 3: our San Francisco bureau. By the way, this is among
Speaker 3: the most read stories on the Bloomberg and it is
Speaker 3: the Bloomberg Big Take, which you can check out on
Speaker 3: the Bloomberg terminal at Bloomberg dot com slash Big Take.
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Speaker 3: All right, let me throw out one metric I guess
Speaker 3: I kind of got to do this. The global sportsware
Speaker 3: market size valued it nearly four hundred and thirteen billion
Speaker 3: dollars in twenty twenty two, estimated to reach nearly one
Speaker 3: hundred forty nine billion by twenty thirty one. And listen,
Speaker 3: there's a lot of players in it and looking to
Speaker 3: take a share of it. Is a partnership. Our next
Speaker 3: two guests, both with brands that are very well known
Speaker 3: now with a combined brand known as Greatness Wins.
Speaker 4: So let's get to the interview with more joining us
Speaker 4: here in the studio. The founder of Vuantucket, who came
Speaker 4: up with the idea for his casual shirts while working
Speaker 4: at GE Healthcare. Chris Ricobono back with us, also with
Speaker 4: US Hall of Fame shortstop and five time World Series
Speaker 4: champion with the New York Yankees, also an e commerce
Speaker 4: investor to Derek Jeter, both here in the Bloomberg BusinessWeek studio. Okay, guys,
Speaker 4: first up, we want to know how you guys got together.
Speaker 4: How did this come together? Who called who, who had
Speaker 4: the idea for who to get involved? How did it
Speaker 4: come out?
Speaker 1: That's a good question. You start. We'll see what version
Speaker 1: comes out.
Speaker 6: I was going to say Derek reached out to me,
Speaker 6: but that's not how it worked. So I over the pandemic.
Speaker 6: I was looking to solve another problem in the fashion industry,
Speaker 6: and I thought about athletic apparel and it didn't exist
Speaker 6: for me something that had a great fit but also
Speaker 6: had foremance first in mind. So I came up with
Speaker 6: this concept in this idea, but now I wanted a
Speaker 6: few athletes behind me. And at the time, I think
Speaker 6: Derek might have still had a contract with Nike or
Speaker 6: it was winding down, and I didn't think that I
Speaker 6: could get to him or that he'd be interested. But
Speaker 6: after a year of bothering him and his agents, he
Speaker 6: actually called me and said, Chris, I'm just not that
Speaker 6: interested and excited in this. But I said, he can't
Speaker 6: get off say he can't get off the phone, Derek,
Speaker 6: how can I get you excited? So we talked for
Speaker 6: a while after that, and we kind of came together
Speaker 6: with both of our visions. You know, I'm apparel guy,
Speaker 6: That's the way I think about it. Derek's was a
Speaker 6: successful entrepreneur but also very successful, as you know, a
Speaker 6: Nike guy, so I knew that he had a lot
Speaker 6: of insight that I didn't have and he shared it
Speaker 6: with me, and we launched a brand about a year
Speaker 6: and a half ago and we're having great success.
Speaker 3: Okay, you weren't excited and then he became excited. How
Speaker 3: that happened? How did you make that turn?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 7: I think you know, first and foremost getting to know Chris,
Speaker 7: we talked about the idea. I've had relationships with athletic
Speaker 7: brands throughout my career in great relationships and I still
Speaker 7: do today, right, And you know, when I was first
Speaker 7: speaking to Chris, I was like, well, first of all,
Speaker 7: you know, this is a crowded space. It's not as
Speaker 7: easy to attack this space, and it's going to take
Speaker 7: some time and it's going to take a lot of energy.
Speaker 7: And I wouldn't say I wasn't excited, but I when
Speaker 7: I do something, I'm all in and if I'm not
Speaker 7: all in, I'm just not going to do it. And
Speaker 7: at that point when we were having the discussion, I said,
Speaker 7: you know, I don't think now is the time. And
Speaker 7: then we actually got together, we had a chance to
Speaker 7: look and feel and touch the product, and that started
Speaker 7: getting me very very excited about it. So I guess
Speaker 7: that's the best way to put it in our short
Speaker 7: period of time.
Speaker 4: You do, though, Derek, probably get a lot of investment pitches,
Speaker 4: not just in the apparel world, but yeah, no question,
Speaker 4: from lots of different entrepreneurs who want your involvement. What
Speaker 4: was it specifically about this one with Chris with Untucket
Speaker 4: that really caught your eye.
Speaker 7: I think it's you got to get to know the
Speaker 7: people any business that you're in the same thing, when
Speaker 7: you're on a team on the field.
Speaker 1: You have to have the right people side.
Speaker 7: Yeah exactly. I was gonna say that, but you didn't
Speaker 7: give me enough time say that. And you know, I
Speaker 7: just found Chris to be very, very passionate about it.
Speaker 7: You can't fake passion. You either are you aren't. And
Speaker 7: you know, even when I told him that I wasn't interested,
Speaker 7: he kept calling and we kept having the conversation, and
Speaker 7: I knew when you're if you're going to be successful,
Speaker 7: you need those types of people on your side.
Speaker 3: I always think about that. I remember talking to a
Speaker 3: top m and a banker and he's like, the only
Speaker 3: way you get deals done is this. CEOs have to
Speaker 3: like each other, and that's how you get things come
Speaker 3: to the table. Would you say no to a great
Speaker 3: deal because you didn't like somebody, Oh.
Speaker 6: Without a doubt. I mean you end up working a lot.
Speaker 6: It's funny when Derek said that he wanted to be
Speaker 6: more involved and he when he goes all in, I
Speaker 6: was thinking he was just doing that as an equity
Speaker 6: play to get some more equity. Yeah, that he actually
Speaker 6: wanted to be and Derek's liked I mean he he
Speaker 6: wants to talk about everything, every decision and you want
Speaker 6: somebody who I want something that guess because I don't
Speaker 6: know everything and I definitely don't know everything in the
Speaker 6: athletic apparel space. So it's been a this.
Speaker 1: Is recorded, right, I'm gonna player. We're gonna play that.
Speaker 3: You can do that, you can look it, you can
Speaker 3: loop it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3: Well the same thing for you, I mean, Derek, when
Speaker 3: you get involved in something, how you know, we asked
Speaker 3: about what made this interesting, but in general, how involved
Speaker 3: do you want to be? I mean how much do
Speaker 3: you have to love the brand that you hook up with?
Speaker 1: You have to be involved.
Speaker 7: I mean otherwise you're just given your money and you're
Speaker 7: hoping someone else runs with it and makes you more.
Speaker 7: But when you're passionate about something, when you put in
Speaker 7: the time, you put in the effort. I think the
Speaker 7: best thing to say about us is we disagree probably
Speaker 7: more than we agree, and I think that's a good thing.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 7: I mean, you don't want people that always think the
Speaker 7: same as you, Otherwise you're never going to make improvements.
Speaker 7: You're never going to make progress.
Speaker 3: Is it hard to say no to? Derek?
Speaker 1: Though?
Speaker 3: We just talked with the leadership We are author of
Speaker 3: a leadership book, and they talked about CEOs who once
Speaker 3: they get to the top, they surround themselves with people
Speaker 3: who who don't say no.
Speaker 6: Listen, I rolled the dice right from the beginning, and
Speaker 6: we went after each other a little bit. But like
Speaker 6: you said it, it's the best way to go about it.
Speaker 6: Like you want to leave at the end of the
Speaker 6: day and have people go against your views, because if
Speaker 6: they're agreeing with you, you're not going to always do
Speaker 6: the right thing. So I thought that was a great
Speaker 6: I wondered if he was one to because sorry, if
Speaker 6: he was going to want to continue to relationship a
Speaker 6: few times, but it really came together and now now
Speaker 6: we're on the same page and things are going really
Speaker 6: well for us.
Speaker 3: Well, I do wonder when does it get a little tricky,
Speaker 3: Like any partnership, whether it's a marriage, whether it's working relationships,
Speaker 3: whether it's business relationships, there's always tough times.
Speaker 4: What are some of those looking at me?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 7: I was about to say, you guys, just keep going.
Speaker 7: You want to you answer that question?
Speaker 3: No, But I really do feel like a little bit
Speaker 3: of debate or a little bit of arguing like gets
Speaker 3: you to a better place.
Speaker 1: I think it does. You have to have a difference
Speaker 1: of opinion, like.
Speaker 3: I said, I do like you tim.
Speaker 7: Otherwise, like I said, you're not going to make any
Speaker 7: any progress moving forward. And we probably we disagree more
Speaker 7: than we agree, but we do it respectfully. And you know,
Speaker 7: there are some things that I know he's an expert.
Speaker 7: It's impossible to be the expert everything, right, you surround
Speaker 7: your people that are much more intelligent in different fields.
Speaker 7: And you know, Chris obviously has a lot of experience
Speaker 7: in the retail space, especially I have experience when it
Speaker 7: comes to athletic brands. So it's okay for us to disagree.
Speaker 4: So Chris, let's go there because this is a really
Speaker 4: crowded space. You mentioned Nike, but I mean If you
Speaker 4: think about upstarts like Viori, Rhone, then there are the
Speaker 4: big players like Nike, Adidas and the like. How do
Speaker 4: you carve out a place for you specifically?
Speaker 6: So it's funny, just like with on Tucket, I really
Speaker 6: needed this product. Then you might ask why. You know
Speaker 6: there's plenty of athletic brands and athlesier brands. For me,
Speaker 6: the athletic brands that existed, the quality wasn't there, the
Speaker 6: consistency of fit wasn't there. They were designed for performance,
Speaker 6: but they didn't have that modern fit. The athleisure brands
Speaker 6: have an incredible fit, very high quality fabrics, but not
Speaker 6: designed with performance first in mind. So I wanted a
Speaker 6: really high end athletic brand that had a great fit
Speaker 6: but also was meant to work out and would withstand
Speaker 6: being washed, not pilling. Something that all athletes, not just
Speaker 6: professional athletes, could use all the time. And it's not inexpensive,
Speaker 6: so you want it to last for a long time.
Speaker 6: And I think that that's where we are differentiate from
Speaker 6: these other brands. We're not athleisure, We're not athletic. We're
Speaker 6: kind of a blend of both, if that makes sense.
Speaker 3: I've got yoga pants on that are pilling a little bit.
Speaker 3: So I totally get you. What's the kind of what's
Speaker 3: the growth trajectory? Tell me what we can tell we're Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: We love numbers, you know that. What's the growth on this?
Speaker 7: Well, we need you to go buy some pants, just
Speaker 7: get right on it to help it's out. But I
Speaker 7: think for us, I'll let Chris follow up on it.
Speaker 7: I think what we want to show as a brand,
Speaker 7: this is only our second year. We want to show progress.
Speaker 7: You know sometimes when you when when you're building a company,
Speaker 7: a startup company, you want success right away to understand
Speaker 7: you're you're a startup company for I think they say
Speaker 7: ten years. I mean that's a long long time. So
Speaker 7: we want to show some steady progression. I'll let Chris
Speaker 7: get in a number.
Speaker 8: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Wait, so will it be ten years before you really
Speaker 3: feel like it's there?
Speaker 1: Depends on how much you buy now.
Speaker 6: I mean, there is so much competition. You want to
Speaker 6: just stay relevant. You want to make a great product.
Speaker 6: That's the first thing. You got to make a great product,
Speaker 6: you need your repeats to be there, which they are
Speaker 6: for us. The other thing that's really exciting with us
Speaker 6: is not just you have the e comm then eventually stores,
Speaker 6: which is what I did with on Tucket. We have
Speaker 6: a great wholesale business we're building at Greatness Wins. We
Speaker 6: have a golf business. We'll be in eighty clubs. We
Speaker 6: were in eighty clubs this spring. We have a bookstore business.
Speaker 6: Derek just wore a Michigan sweatshirt on his Honorey Captain
Speaker 6: in Michigan this weekend. We have a new dance relationship
Speaker 6: with Misty Copeland, who's our women this.
Speaker 3: Foundary women who do a little bit of shopping.
Speaker 6: So we have something that will be announcing soon. That's exciting.
Speaker 6: So I'm very happy with earlier are. People love the product,
Speaker 6: they love the quality, and we're just getting going, but
Speaker 6: very excited.
Speaker 1: For the future.
Speaker 3: All Right, We're going to just shift a little bit
Speaker 3: because I am curious, Derek, are you looking for any
Speaker 3: other investments, you know, in sports beyond baseball or maybe
Speaker 3: an MLB team or anything.
Speaker 7: No, I've been down that path. No, I'm going to
Speaker 7: take a break from that. I spend a lot of
Speaker 7: time with my four kids who are seven and under,
Speaker 7: so it's a full time job, especially when you're talking
Speaker 7: about baseball ownership. So at this particular point, I think
Speaker 7: I have my hands full.
Speaker 4: So you know whether, yeah, well when you say take
Speaker 4: a break, are you ruling it out for the future
Speaker 4: or do you want to get back in there.
Speaker 7: I learned a law long time ago never say never yeah,
Speaker 7: because you never know. I just said it three times
Speaker 7: in a row. But you don't know where the future
Speaker 7: is going to lead you. But at this particular point.
Speaker 3: Now, I do also wonder the two of you, like
Speaker 3: when you think about either ath leisure or athletic appareled
Speaker 3: you know, companies that you look at that you admire
Speaker 3: or leaders you admire. Let me ask you, Chris first, like,
Speaker 3: is there somebody that you look at and say, that's
Speaker 3: who I kind of get some cues from.
Speaker 6: Or I mean we always talk about Nike and the
Speaker 6: Jordan brand. Those are the greatest, you know, probably the
Speaker 6: greatest brand maybe ever, so well, you know, you want
Speaker 6: to be them, but if you're half half of what
Speaker 6: they become, you're very successful. And I think the ath
Speaker 6: leisure brands are great too. I mean I won't name
Speaker 6: them because you know, but I think there's a lot
Speaker 6: of great brands these days. So we're just trying to differentiate,
Speaker 6: give a reason, you know why you might need our
Speaker 6: product versus those products, and yeah, hopefully it works.
Speaker 3: Leader you look at your smiling.
Speaker 7: No, there's there's a lot, you know. It's it's I
Speaker 7: want to come to mine, he said, Jordan Brand. You know,
Speaker 7: MJ's been like a big brother than me. And I
Speaker 7: think you know, I have young kids now, and you
Speaker 7: want them to choose their career path and find someone
Speaker 7: that they can look up to. You want them to
Speaker 7: see someone who's been successful. And you know, you talk
Speaker 7: about Michael on what he was able to accomplish on
Speaker 7: the basketball court, but I think you look at athletes
Speaker 7: post playing career, he's up there at the top what
Speaker 7: he's been able to accomplish from a business standpoint. So
Speaker 7: he's someone that I look to and go to for advice.
Speaker 3: All right, you're going to go there, you go World Series.
Speaker 3: I know I have to do this. I have to
Speaker 3: do this, all right, So you're going.
Speaker 1: To be in the booth, right I am, Yes? Yeah?
Speaker 3: Who do you can you think about who might be there?
Speaker 7: I don't know, it depends, you know. I'm not trying
Speaker 7: to skirt the question. I'm really not, but a lot
Speaker 7: of it is matchups. Okay, we'll know in a couple
Speaker 7: of weeks, because you know some teams I know during
Speaker 7: my careers to play Anaheim Angels all the time. We
Speaker 7: just couldn't beat them, and you know, finally we broke
Speaker 7: through and we were able to win in two thousand
Speaker 7: and nine. But it all comes down to matchups. So
Speaker 7: there's some good teams out there.
Speaker 3: Chris, you talk baseball, and I'm curious what you might
Speaker 3: think for the World Series.
Speaker 1: It knows nothing about basics. I know baseball.
Speaker 6: I mean, did a deal with I don't bother Derek
Speaker 6: with it, but I'm a Yankees fan. We'll see it's
Speaker 6: they don't seem to be able to perform in the
Speaker 6: playoffs for the last what is it fifteen years.
Speaker 1: Now, we'll discuss it on.
Speaker 3: Hey listen, guys, got about forty seconds left here real
Speaker 3: quickly in I don't know, a year from now. What's
Speaker 3: the conversation around your company.
Speaker 6: I think we'll start to look at stores. I mean,
Speaker 6: I love stores. Not many people do in retail. We
Speaker 6: have nine of them on Tucket and we're opening more.
Speaker 6: I think it's really important for the male shoppers. So
Speaker 6: I think we'll look at that, and we'll look at
Speaker 6: continued growth in these different areas that we discuss, bookstores, golf,
Speaker 6: e commerce. So it's very exciting.
Speaker 3: Same thing for you, Derek, in terms of greatness, wins
Speaker 3: and a year from now, what are we gonna be
Speaker 3: talking about.
Speaker 1: Oh, I think it's all awareness.
Speaker 7: You want people to be aware. You want to walk
Speaker 7: around the streets and see people wearing And I'm very
Speaker 7: confident in the fact that someone buys our product and
Speaker 7: they wear it, they'll be happy with it, their return.
Speaker 4: As a customer and no pilling.
Speaker 1: You promise, Well, you got to tell me.
Speaker 3: I got.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Listen live
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Speaker 3: All right, everybody, a story from the Wall Street Journal Today.
Speaker 3: We want to bring to your attention millennials. You know,
Speaker 3: those younger folks. You're a millennial art I'm.
Speaker 4: An elder, millennial, elder, elder. It's a real things.
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, anyway, Younger folks, millennials, older millennials, elder
Speaker 3: millennials like Tim increasingly going on cruises.
Speaker 4: Who knew it's not the cruise their parents parents went
Speaker 4: on the They want quick escapes, private islands. Yeah, so
Speaker 4: the Wall Street Journal notes.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's an interesting story. So yeah, you're there. Who
Speaker 3: doesn't want to go to a private island? Young and
Speaker 3: old anyway? With more in the travel scene in the
Speaker 3: upcoming holiday travel season, back with U, says Haleyberg, lead
Speaker 3: economists at the travel app Hopper, joining us once again
Speaker 3: from Boston. All right, first up, before we get into
Speaker 3: your holiday travel outlook, you guys recently have come out
Speaker 3: with a report travel, holiday travel, consumer travel. Is it
Speaker 3: slowing down? Are people looking for bargains? What are we
Speaker 3: seeing right now in today's environment.
Speaker 9: We're seeing that this holiday season will be busy. Most
Speaker 9: Americans see holiday travel, if they do travel, as an
Speaker 9: essential expense, and that's reflected in what they're telling us
Speaker 9: right now. About seventy five percent of Hopper customers say
Speaker 9: that they're going to be spending more on holiday travel
Speaker 9: this year, or at least the same as last year.
Speaker 9: And to do that, about half our cutting back on
Speaker 9: other expenses and are looking for deals and discounts and
Speaker 9: ways to stretch that travel budget further. So the demand
Speaker 9: is there, but so is that sensitivity and a little
Speaker 9: bit of concern about being able to afford travel.
Speaker 4: Are we too late, Haley? If we haven't booked our
Speaker 4: holiday travel yet.
Speaker 9: You're not too late. Now is actually the perfect time
Speaker 9: to start planning your holiday travel. Our recommendation at Hopper
Speaker 9: is book your holiday travel both for Thanksgiving and Christmas
Speaker 9: by October fourteenth. That's the sweet spot when prices will
Speaker 9: be at their lowest and flights won't be sold out yet.
Speaker 3: All right, So you know, in terms of where folks
Speaker 3: are going, where they should be going, where there are deals,
Speaker 3: what do you have for us?
Speaker 9: Most folks are headed to bigger cities in the US
Speaker 9: over the holiday season. We see a lot of major
Speaker 9: hubs think New York City, La, Chicago, Atlanta. Most travelers
Speaker 9: going to bestic are headed home for the holidays, so
Speaker 9: they're hitting those hubs and then either being picked up
Speaker 9: or going some more local. But internationally, we do see
Speaker 9: a lot of travelers getting away, making a week of it,
Speaker 9: whether it be at Thanksgiving or Christmas, and those destinations
Speaker 9: are bigger names like London, Paris, Tokyo, and soul Haley.
Speaker 4: What does the activity on Hopper tell you about disposable
Speaker 4: income for Americans right now? What story does it tell
Speaker 4: us about the economy. What's the narrative that you're seeing
Speaker 4: out there.
Speaker 9: The majority of Hopper users are Gen Z and millennial.
Speaker 9: They're younger and they spend differently than older generations. What
Speaker 9: we've seen is that our users are willing to spend
Speaker 9: on travel. They're expanding their travel expenditure, and how they're
Speaker 9: doing that is being smart about when they book, so
Speaker 9: they might get the lowest price on their airfare, but
Speaker 9: then they'll spend forty dollars extra on a product like
Speaker 9: cancel for any reason or disruption assistance. So it's a
Speaker 9: generation of travelers who are price sensitive but very focused
Speaker 9: on value. They want to get the best price and
Speaker 9: they want to splurge on things are going to improve
Speaker 9: their experience, whether it's a fancy cruise or a product
Speaker 9: that lets them rebook if they're canceled or delay to
Speaker 9: the airport. Hailey.
Speaker 4: If people do have flexibility, what are the best days
Speaker 4: to book holiday travel? I was actually looking at the
Speaker 4: difference between like flying on Christmas and New Year's Day,
Speaker 4: for example, and how much cheaper that was than flying
Speaker 4: let's say the Saturday before Christmas and then flying back
Speaker 4: the Sunday before New Year's I mean it was like
Speaker 4: sixty percent of the cost.
Speaker 9: Absolutely, it'll actually save you, on average about two hundred
Speaker 9: dollars on any domestic holiday trip if you travel on
Speaker 9: the holiday itself, thank Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Thanksgiving Day.
Speaker 9: We know not all travelers are that flexible. So if
Speaker 9: you are a little bit flexible and you can travel,
Speaker 9: say the Monday before Thanksgiving and return the Monday after,
Speaker 9: skip that Sunday return, you will save over one hundred
Speaker 9: dollars per ticket. And at Christmas, what you have to
Speaker 9: avoid is the Saturday to Saturday or Sunday to Sunday,
Speaker 9: making a week of the holiday.
Speaker 8: Try to depart the.
Speaker 9: Day before Christmas Eve or on Christmas Eve, come back
Speaker 9: on New Year's Eve. That's how you're going to get
Speaker 9: the lowest price.
Speaker 3: Hey, I want to go back though, to what tim
Speaker 3: aster about discretionary spending or disposable income or disposable spending money,
Speaker 3: if you will that consumers have do you feel like
Speaker 3: there's any signs that consumers are really really pulling back.
Speaker 9: What we're hearing is that pullback isn't happening on travel,
Speaker 9: but it is happening elsewhere. About fifty percent of our
Speaker 9: customers said, I'm going to cut back on other expenses
Speaker 9: in the next couple of months so that I can
Speaker 9: keep spending on my holiday travel. So there's definitely pressure
Speaker 9: on wallets. Discretionary spending is under pressure, but travel has
Speaker 9: really come out on top as one of those areas
Speaker 9: where travelers are working hard to maintain their expenditure.
Speaker 3: All right, and before you go, those elder millennials like Tim,
Speaker 3: are they going on cruise ships? Are they doing? What
Speaker 3: are you hearing about the cruise? And just cut about
Speaker 3: twenty five seconds left.
Speaker 9: You know, we're hearing that younger travelers are interested in
Speaker 9: value and packages. They want accommodations, transportation, and a great
Speaker 9: experience at a great price. So cruises are one way
Speaker 9: that they're achieving that. Other ways are finding great deals,
Speaker 9: package deals, whether it be through a platform like Hopper
Speaker 9: or one Travel.
Speaker 3: So Tim on Theledo deck, it could happen.
Speaker 4: I don't even know what that means.
Speaker 3: That makes me just so upset that you don't know that,
Speaker 3: all right, Hilliburg, thank you so much. Lead economist ever
Speaker 3: at Hopper, you're.
Speaker 2: Listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen on
Speaker 2: Apple car Play and then brout Auto with a Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 4: You might remember this Carol over the summer. Yeah, City
Speaker 4: Group came out with the study. They said AI is
Speaker 4: likely to displace more jobs across the banking industry than
Speaker 4: in any other sector. As the tech is poised up
Speaker 4: in consumer finance, it's going to make workers more productive.
Speaker 4: About fifty four percent of jobs across banking have a
Speaker 4: high potential to be automated, the bank set in that
Speaker 4: June report, an additional twelve percent of roles across the
Speaker 4: industry could be augmented with the technology City Group found.
Speaker 4: This is Carily Close's world. She's Global Talent and Organization
Speaker 4: lead at Accenture, where she works on projects that use
Speaker 4: data and tech like AI to figure out new ways
Speaker 4: of work, new ways to work. She joins us from Victoria,
Speaker 4: British Columbia. Carollly, good to have you with us. Are
Speaker 4: we approaching the conversation about AI correctly or incorrectly when
Speaker 4: it comes to work.
Speaker 8: It's a great question. I think it is correctly in
Speaker 8: that it is fundamentally changing the way that work gets done,
Speaker 8: and it is fundamentally changing jobs. But I think the
Speaker 8: narrative ends up being a little negative the job loss.
Speaker 8: I think we're going to need to learn new ways
Speaker 8: of working with technology, as we've done with spreadsheets and
Speaker 8: other applications, and we're going to need to learn alongside
Speaker 8: this new technology. But you know, I do think it's
Speaker 8: going to be one of the more fundamental shifts in
Speaker 8: the working world over the next few years.
Speaker 3: Can you can you walk us through some of the
Speaker 3: specific examples that you guys are seeing, maybe at accenture
Speaker 3: specifically on how it's changed AI, generative AI, large language models,
Speaker 3: how it's changing how you guys work already.
Speaker 8: Yeah, so, I think it's quite publicly known. We've got
Speaker 8: over over a thousand client projects with jen Ai. We're
Speaker 8: also using gen AI in the delivery of our work
Speaker 8: quite extensively, and some examples of that, I guess in
Speaker 8: the client side of things, we're seeing a real movement
Speaker 8: in call centers and in marketing where the combination of data,
Speaker 8: AI and jen AI is actually creating new ways of
Speaker 8: solving customers issues, whether that's you know, whether you need
Speaker 8: a call center in the first place, or how you
Speaker 8: handle calls, to how you manage content and marketing, messaging
Speaker 8: and the like. Internally with an accenter, we're exploring the
Speaker 8: use of AI and jen AI and everything we do
Speaker 8: from how we understand client's issues from external data to
Speaker 8: know how we actually deliver projects and work.
Speaker 3: I want to ask you about call centers only because
Speaker 3: I've gotten lost in a couple over the last week
Speaker 3: or so.
Speaker 4: So what physically it's like you're walking around call centers
Speaker 4: or you're calling numbers?
Speaker 3: Kind of lost my mind?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you know where.
Speaker 3: It's like, you know, you're talking and it's like, well,
Speaker 3: I want to know more. Is that what AI? Generative
Speaker 3: AI is? If we don't have huge like I'll be
Speaker 3: honest with you, I just kept like hammering until I
Speaker 3: could get to a human and then a human that
Speaker 3: got me to a supervisor to really resolve a problem.
Speaker 3: And I wonder what does generative AI mean in terms
Speaker 3: of call centers, and especially if it means reduced humans?
Speaker 3: Is it just a case that I keep getting options
Speaker 3: and drilling down. Is that what it's all about, because
Speaker 3: there are times where you need a human's brain to
Speaker 3: kind of understand what you were talking about. Not every
Speaker 3: problem fits into a box.
Speaker 8: Yeah, and I think that's exactly right. And when you
Speaker 8: think about it, a call center is set up to
Speaker 8: resolve an issue that shouldn't have maybe happened in the
Speaker 8: first place. So quite oftentimes I think, you know, you
Speaker 8: could say, well, let's just you know, add AI to
Speaker 8: an existing construct, but I don't think that's the real impact.
Speaker 8: I think the real impact is really reimagining the way
Speaker 8: that work gets done, and so really reimagining what happens
Speaker 8: in a call center and what doesn't and how you
Speaker 8: use the technology to amplify the experience or improve the
Speaker 8: experience that a customer or an employee would have is
Speaker 8: sort of where we're seeing the big impact. But we're
Speaker 8: seeing actually about forty percent of working hours will will
Speaker 8: shift as a result of using AI and gen AI,
Speaker 8: and so really we encourage clients to really reimagine work
Speaker 8: and reimagine the skills that you need to do the work,
Speaker 8: so you know, fundamentally what happens in a call center
Speaker 8: should be reimagined, not just you know, automating the call
Speaker 8: flow that happens, but really more fundamentally redesigning processes so
Speaker 8: that the humans are doing the really value added activity
Speaker 8: and the technology does the other things.
Speaker 4: I'm wondering, Carey, when you look out at the landscape,
Speaker 4: given all the work that you've done, how much you
Speaker 4: know about the space. What's a company out there that's
Speaker 4: doing this really well.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 8: We step away from making specific examples of individual companies,
Speaker 8: but I think the companies that are doing this really
Speaker 8: well are they're reimagining the way that work gets done,
Speaker 8: and they're not layering new technology on old problems, but
Speaker 8: they're really solving the problems in a different way. And
Speaker 8: in that they're redesigning the work and they're adapting the
Speaker 8: workforce so the skills that happen within work. So we're
Speaker 8: finding actually that ninety five percent of people are really
Speaker 8: ready to learn new skills to work with GENAI, but
Speaker 8: only five percent of organizations are actually changing the way
Speaker 8: the workforce shows up actually reskilling their workforce. And so
Speaker 8: while the companies that are doing this well are not
Speaker 8: just saying well, add copilot or add a piece of
Speaker 8: GENI onto an existing workflow, but they're really refundamentally redesigning
Speaker 8: work and they're revisiting their learning and talent strategies to
Speaker 8: give people access to the opportunity to develop much more quickly.
Speaker 8: And there's a real gap between the skills that we
Speaker 8: need in the future and the skills that we have,
Speaker 8: and so the leading companies are really adopting their skills
Speaker 8: and learning organizations in order to provide opportunities for people
Speaker 8: to learn and grow at their organization.
Speaker 3: Carly, one thing I do. So I'm listening to you
Speaker 3: talk about what organizations need to do to kind of
Speaker 3: rescale workers or make sure their workers have the right skills. So,
Speaker 3: in a generative AI world where people are working hand
Speaker 3: in hand with or some workers or call center individuals
Speaker 3: who work there are working with AI, do they need
Speaker 3: college degrees? Is it a case they get to a
Speaker 3: company and they get trained, Like, how are we thinking
Speaker 3: about what skills are really needed?
Speaker 8: Yeah? And it's a very good point. I mean, I
Speaker 8: actually think there's a whole reinvention of talent and learning
Speaker 8: that will happen as a result of this, which can
Speaker 8: be quite exciting because a more fluid opportunity to develop
Speaker 8: at a different pace, and it's going to be exciting
Speaker 8: for workers against that as like sixty one percent of
Speaker 8: workers are globally going to need retraining by twenty twenty seven,
Speaker 8: that's not too far away. And so that whole like
Speaker 8: I go to school, I learn something, and then I
Speaker 8: get hired to do a job, and leading companies are
Speaker 8: really thinking about that differently, so thinking about the skills
Speaker 8: that they have, the characteristics of the people that they're hiring,
Speaker 8: and how to develop those skills at a different rate.
Speaker 8: So giving you a differentiated learning path, and that learning
Speaker 8: path isn't just about going to training, it's about a
Speaker 8: different experience that you have doing the work that you're doing,
Speaker 8: and a work learn fusion we like to call it.
Speaker 8: So the opportunity to learn on the job and be
Speaker 8: provided with new opportunities to not only learn but also
Speaker 8: developed skill is I think a source of innovation and
Speaker 8: resilience for companies that it's going to require another level
Speaker 8: of innovation around corporate learning and development and also career
Speaker 8: paths to provide people with flexible opportunities to developed skills
Speaker 8: and particularly help people develop skills in directions that meet
Speaker 8: workforce need. If you think about like five years of
Speaker 8: workforce planning, like a lot of organizations will deal like
Speaker 8: a multi year plan, I think we're going to see
Speaker 8: a lot more near term and understanding of the skills
Speaker 8: you have, the skills you need, and then flexibility and
Speaker 8: adapting those skills, whether that's sourcing them from different locations
Speaker 8: or whether that's developing them internally. And that's going to
Speaker 8: be a source of advantage for the companies that get
Speaker 8: it right.
Speaker 4: Hey, Kelly, if you were advising recent graduates from college,
Speaker 4: or people who are entering college right now, or even
Speaker 4: people in high school because maybe college isn't even part
Speaker 4: of the equation for a career like this or a
Speaker 4: world like this, what would you advise them to do?
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think I would advise people to I have
Speaker 8: a child that's going to start college very soon, and
Speaker 8: so it's a very near term piece of advice. I
Speaker 8: think the opportunity or the willingness that you have to
Speaker 8: learn and innovate throughout your career is going to be important.
Speaker 8: So learning to learn and learning to adapt the skills
Speaker 8: that you have is going to be important. Right, So
Speaker 8: ninety percent of CEOs say that talent scarcity and lack
Speaker 8: of skilled workers is going to be one of the
Speaker 8: top five business issues. So being able to learn on
Speaker 8: the job and be being able to be flexible and
Speaker 8: innovative and creative. And the other thing is I think
Speaker 8: the technology is never going to replace things like empathy
Speaker 8: and creative creative activities, and so thinking about like how
Speaker 8: you enhance your emotional intelligence and your aptitude for learning,
Speaker 8: it's going to be as important as which college you pick.
Speaker 1: I like that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, interesting, Hey thirty seconds. Just quickly the work your
Speaker 3: demands are hiring. Anything that you're seeing that's a slow
Speaker 3: down that you're not seeing as much work, because we're
Speaker 3: starting to see that some of the statistics and just
Speaker 3: got about twenty five seconds.
Speaker 8: Yeah, there's a I slow down in some sectors and
Speaker 8: in an uptick in other sectors. And actually if you
Speaker 8: sort of go into it, there's different geos where you're
Speaker 8: seeing up and down. We are seeing I think I
Speaker 8: continued demand around technology skills, and I think that's a
Speaker 8: strong signal for us going forward.
Speaker 4: Fairly close. Thanks so much for joining us on Bloomberg
Speaker 4: Global Talent and Organization lead over at Eccentric.
Speaker 1: Bromuck on the journal.
Speaker 3: How about you let me drive?
Speaker 4: Oh no, no, no, no, who's going to drive?
Speaker 2: Honey?
Speaker 8: Please?
Speaker 1: I'll do the riding gravels. Let's wat I want to drive?
Speaker 2: It's good question. Try this is the drive to the
Speaker 2: globe punk commune.
Speaker 1: Well build it on Bloemberg radio.
Speaker 3: All right, but just under eighteen minutes left in today's
Speaker 3: trading session, getting ready to wrap up that Thursday trade.
Speaker 3: Bouncing around, but we're not. We're just a little bit
Speaker 3: off our highs of the session. So, as you heard
Speaker 3: from Charlie, still about one percent higher on the Nasdaq
Speaker 3: one hundred s and P five hundred again of almost
Speaker 3: eight tens of a percent. This as we got another
Speaker 3: readown on inflation, a read on weekly jobless that coming
Speaker 3: a little bit weaker, slightly hotter on the inflation print.
Speaker 3: Another two days in a row, slightly hotter inflation prints.
Speaker 3: And then we've got the FED meeting next week.
Speaker 4: So let's go to one of our go tos. Back
Speaker 4: with us. Aaron Kennon, he's co founder and CEO over
Speaker 4: at Clear Harber Asset Management. They've got more than one
Speaker 4: point five billion dollars in assets under management. Joins us
Speaker 4: from Stamford, Connecticut. Aaron, good to see you happy.
Speaker 2: I don't want to.
Speaker 4: It's not the end of summer yet, Carol. You know
Speaker 4: officially almost.
Speaker 3: End of the days are getting shorter. They're wrestling, the
Speaker 3: acorns are falling. I know, okay.
Speaker 4: Anyway, say Aaron, next week J Powell twenty five, is
Speaker 4: that what's going to be?
Speaker 10: It looks that way, although there's one hundred percent, one
Speaker 10: hundred basis point cut between now and year end priced
Speaker 10: into the FED fund's futures market, and so that would
Speaker 10: suggest that at some point, if the market's correct, well,
Speaker 10: we would need to see a fifty. I think a
Speaker 10: fifty next week could could.
Speaker 4: Do more harm than good.
Speaker 10: It seems as though the crowd of FOMC speakers prior
Speaker 10: to the quiet session that we're in now have intimated
Speaker 10: that they would embrace a cut that the data, as
Speaker 10: you just allude to earlier PPI CPI has certainly trended
Speaker 10: back towards the two percent target that the Fed has,
Speaker 10: but it's not there yet. And we experienced in early
Speaker 10: August what you know, currency volatility can do to overall
Speaker 10: capital markets, particularly equities and fixed income. When we saw
Speaker 10: that sort of yen carry unwind occurring, and so I
Speaker 10: don't think a fifty basis point cut would help in
Speaker 10: that regard, and I think the FED is very much
Speaker 10: inclined to go twenty five at this point. We'll have
Speaker 10: to see.
Speaker 3: Hey, you know, I think about you know, you founded,
Speaker 3: co founded your firm, you are the CEO of your firm,
Speaker 3: and I'm just wondering, since the beginning days of it
Speaker 3: and your time and money management, what's more difficult about
Speaker 3: investing today? What's easier?
Speaker 10: Oh my gosh, Well, there are many more products in
Speaker 10: the marketplace, and so that can be a huge opportunity
Speaker 10: because those products mean that there are different strategies. But
Speaker 10: it also, as an allocator of capital on behalf of
Speaker 10: clients can be a rather significant distraction. So I do
Speaker 10: think that that's something that we as a firm need
Speaker 10: constantly remind ourselves of because our day to day is,
Speaker 10: you know, working on behalf of our clients and being
Speaker 10: fiduciaries to them. So I think that's one variable that
Speaker 10: certainly is different the growth of alternatives, the democratization of alternatives,
Speaker 10: and that's a plus, But we sort of approach lots
Speaker 10: of things with skepticism, including the market itself. You know,
Speaker 10: we don't own everything, and so you know, parsing through
Speaker 10: more in this day and age around these new products
Speaker 10: is certainly challenging.
Speaker 4: Okay, speaking of uncertainty moving forward, we haven't talked about
Speaker 4: the debate today, Yeah, Carol, but it's still really have it.
Speaker 4: But there's a Reuter's poll out that just came out
Speaker 4: in the last couple of hours that actually shows some
Speaker 4: gains for Kamala Harris post debate. We'll probably get more
Speaker 4: polling on that in the coming days, but I do
Speaker 4: want to bring that question to you aerin uncertainty around
Speaker 4: the election and sort of how you're watching this from
Speaker 4: an investment perspective.
Speaker 10: Well, that's a big one. I mean, certainly we've seen
Speaker 10: some ebbing and flowing on the polling side. This debate
Speaker 10: was clearly a weaker one for the former president, a
Speaker 10: stronger one for the vice the current vice president. I
Speaker 10: think there are questions around spending, but that doesn't seem
Speaker 10: to be something that either candidates focus on. There are
Speaker 10: concerns about the growing debt to GDP deficit, again not
Speaker 10: a topic dsure for either candidate, which is just stunning
Speaker 10: at this moment where at the GDP is one hundred
Speaker 10: and twenty percent and growing, and we wonder why gold's
Speaker 10: reaching all time highs here today, up one and a
Speaker 10: half percent. So I think tariffs will be a big question.
Speaker 10: But again, it's been interesting the terriffs that the former
Speaker 10: president has placed on countries and products. Many of those
Speaker 10: terrafts are still in place. So are we going to
Speaker 10: really have a changing of the guard. Regardless who wins
Speaker 10: on the terraffront, it will be very interesting for us
Speaker 10: to monitor that. I think the regulatory environment is an
Speaker 10: area where we I think should expect a bit of
Speaker 10: a change if the former president wins, generally less regulation.
Speaker 10: I think the question around the sustainability investment that came
Speaker 10: out of the Inflation Reduction Act, around solar products need
Speaker 10: to primarily be made here in the US, for example,
Speaker 10: maybe a big question mark. If he were to gain
Speaker 10: in the polls, we could see some of those stocks
Speaker 10: come under pressure post debate. We actually saw those stocks
Speaker 10: yesterday rally quite significantly, and I think that was an
Speaker 10: indication that, well, maybe Kamala Harris is in a position
Speaker 10: to possibly win the election.
Speaker 1: We'll have to see.
Speaker 3: Hey, listen, do you think Aaron that. Listen, this has happened.
Speaker 3: At the end of last year, right investors were saying, Oh,
Speaker 3: we're gonna get six rate cuts. It's going to be
Speaker 3: pretty aggressive in terms of the Fed. Well, it didn't happen.
Speaker 3: Right here we are. That was the end of last
Speaker 3: year going into the beginning of twenty twenty four. Here
Speaker 3: we are September, mid September of twenty twenty four, and
Speaker 3: we're still waiting for that first rate cut by the
Speaker 3: Federal Reserve. It's expected next week. That expectation around one
Speaker 3: hundred basis points of cuts. Do you think that is
Speaker 3: There's a good chance that's way too aggressive.
Speaker 10: Still, it could be, although it could break the other
Speaker 10: way if the data were to suggest otherwise, if the
Speaker 10: employment picture were to not just soften, but you know,
Speaker 10: look like maybe it's breaking a little harder. If the
Speaker 10: jobs claims were to like further they've they've been rising,
Speaker 10: but spiking, you know, spiking further, the unemployment rate were
Speaker 10: to accelerate to the upside even more than it already
Speaker 10: has over the last three months, and so you know,
Speaker 10: I think clearly, you know that's that's of concern. On
Speaker 10: the flip side, I mentioned tariffs if increased tariffs had
Speaker 10: an impact on the economy in raising prices, that that
Speaker 10: could put the Fed on on watch for maybe being
Speaker 10: a little less hawkish. And you know, so what we'll
Speaker 10: we'll have to see on all those fronts.
Speaker 4: What about geopolitics, Oh my gosh.
Speaker 10: Well, we we certainly monitor what's happening. I mean, certainly
Speaker 10: the economy in Europe is quite weak, Germany in particular,
Speaker 10: largest economy in Europe. We're keeping our eye on that.
Speaker 10: You know, what is happening in Ukraine and the sort
Speaker 10: of Western world working with Ukraine in its response to
Speaker 10: Russian it's Russian invasion. How we're dealing with with China
Speaker 10: and what that may mean too for you know, how
Speaker 10: we think about the dollar. You know, China may be
Speaker 10: hesitant to buy dollar based fixed income assets to bolster
Speaker 10: their reserves after looking at how and this is not
Speaker 10: a criticism on my parts, it's an observation, but how
Speaker 10: the West has dealt with freezing Russian central bank assets
Speaker 10: after the invasion of Ukraine. All these things have huge
Speaker 10: impacts on the sort of dollars ability to maintain its
Speaker 10: rifle I believe place as a global reserve currency.
Speaker 3: All right, Really appreciate it. Aaron, take care. Aaron Kennon
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Speaker 10: M