1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:16,599 Speaker 2: Tensions between India and Pakistan that threatened to boil over 3 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 2: during the weekend have now settled back to a simmer. 4 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 2: The two countries have been striking at targets inside each 5 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 2: other's borders since last Wednesday. It's the worst fighting between 6 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 2: these two nuclear powers in half a century. But now 7 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 2: they appear to have reached a fragile truce. 8 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: So what you saw with this conflict was really the 9 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: closest that India and Pakistan have come to it all 10 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 1: at war since possibly the nineteen seventies. 11 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,239 Speaker 2: Dan Strump is a Bloomberg senior reporter based in India's 12 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 2: capital of New Delhi. He says the hostilities are the 13 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 2: latest phase of a long standing territorial dispute over the 14 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 2: border region of Jammu and Kashmir. 15 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 1: It's one of the most contested regions the world. Really, 16 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: Both India and Pakistan have claimed this region as their 17 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,320 Speaker 1: own going back to the time of independence. 18 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 2: But what might look to outsiders like a regional issue 19 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 2: has serious international implications. Both Indian and Pakistan are nuclear powers. 20 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:20,679 Speaker 2: India's one of the world's largest economies and the most populous. 21 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 2: Then there's China, which has been working to grow its 22 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 2: influence in the region. These factors appear to have drawn 23 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 2: in the Trump administration. US President Donald Trump surprised the 24 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 2: world by announcing a ceasefire in a social media post 25 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 2: over the weekend, but not everyone's happy about that. The 26 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:44,199 Speaker 2: surprise announcement may have upstaged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 27 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: There's a real sort of sense of dismay and anger 28 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: that you see among Indian politicians and ordinary Indians as well. 29 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: This really throws a ranch in Modi's political standing right 30 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: now in India. 31 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 2: Welcome to The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha. 32 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 2: Every week we take you inside some of the world's 33 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:12,640 Speaker 2: biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and 34 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 2: businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today in the show, 35 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 2: a conversation between Rebecca Chung Wilkins and Bloomberg reporter Dan 36 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 2: Strump about the increasingly intense conflict between India and Pakistan, 37 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 2: how the conflict changed in recent days, and the roles 38 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:32,640 Speaker 2: the US and China have been playing in the background. 39 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 3: India said that it has conducted military strikes in Pakistan 40 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 3: and Pakistan, on the other hand, said they have downed 41 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:50,360 Speaker 3: five Indian fighter jet planes and this is an escalation 42 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 3: of the two nuclear armed nations. The tensions have been 43 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 3: similar for the last few days ever since twenty six 44 00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 3: people were killed. 45 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 4: Dan, Hello, been a very busy few weeks for you. 46 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 1: It's been very busy for all of us here in 47 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 1: India and Pakistan. 48 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 4: And I want to get straight into the conflict and 49 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:11,959 Speaker 4: what's been keeping you so busy? 50 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 1: So the current conflict goes back about three weeks on 51 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: April twenty second to a terrible attack that took place 52 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: in Indian Administered Kashmir in a region known as Pahalgam, 53 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 1: which is a sort of beautiful mountainous meadow region in Kashmir. 54 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: A large group of tourists were vacationing in the meadow 55 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 1: and armed gunmen came out of the forest and gunned 56 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: down twenty six people. All of them were civilians, mostly tourists, 57 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: mostly Indians. So in the immediate aftermath of this event, 58 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: India very quickly blamed Pakistan for the disaster in Kashmir. 59 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 1: Pakistan very quickly denied any involvement. 60 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 4: And where exactly is Kashmir because geography really matters In this. 61 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 1: Case, the geography does really matter. So Kashmir is a 62 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: large region that sits on the northern tip of India 63 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 1: bordering Pakistan, and it's about the size of the UK. 64 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 1: It's one of the most contested regions in the world. Really, 65 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:20,159 Speaker 1: both India and Pakistan have claimed this region as their 66 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 1: own going back to the time of independence. 67 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 4: And dan, how did Kashmir become so contentious between India 68 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 4: and Pakistan? 69 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 1: So the conflict essentially dates back to the independence of 70 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 1: both countries from the British in nineteen forty seven. The 71 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 1: British colonial administration essentially left the region in a hurry, 72 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: leaving a whole host of territorial disputes unresolved, and the 73 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 1: most front dispute of all came to be Kashmir, and 74 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 1: Kashmir became this sort of touching off point for the 75 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: very first war that the two countries fought immediately after independence, 76 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 1: and it's been a source of multiple wars over the 77 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 1: years ever since. 78 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 4: How did we see the two sides respond in the 79 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 4: immediate aftermath of this event, So. 80 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 1: It's about two weeks of posturing. Nothing really happened until 81 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 1: about a week ago when India announced that it had 82 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: undertaken a series of air strikes on the Pakistani side 83 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:29,719 Speaker 1: of Kashmir. Pakistan responded with its own strikes. The two 84 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: sides traded artillery fire, small arms fire, and eventually missile 85 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:40,280 Speaker 1: fire and drone and aircraft attacks were involved as well 86 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: on both sides. 87 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,839 Speaker 4: Right, So that was the military response we've seen from 88 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 4: the two sides. Were there any changes in terms of 89 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 4: diplomacy and policymaking. 90 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:55,599 Speaker 1: So in addition to military strikes, India suspended what's known 91 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 1: as the Indus Waters Treaty, which is a treaty that 92 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 1: has satually governs the use of the Indus River and 93 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 1: its vast number of tributaries. It's so essential to both 94 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: of these countries their reliance on the water that comes 95 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 1: from this vast sort of river basin. After India suspended 96 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: this treaty, that really raised the fears that the flow 97 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: of water from India to Pakistan, which lies downstream from India, 98 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 1: could be under threat. And what Pakistan said very quickly 99 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 1: after the suspension of this treaty was that if its 100 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 1: water flow is threatened, it would treat that as an 101 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 1: act of war. 102 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 4: You mentioned that Kashmir is a region no stranger to 103 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 4: conflicts and skirmishes. So we've seen violence throughout the two 104 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 4: thousands and further escalations in twenty nineteen. How is this 105 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 4: time different from what we've seen in the past. 106 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 1: I think it's important for us to point out that 107 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 1: what we saw in the last week or so is 108 00:06:56,720 --> 00:07:00,159 Speaker 1: far from the sort of full blown wars that to 109 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 1: find the conflicts that took place in the last century. 110 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 1: Over Kashmir, what we saw was a major escalation in 111 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: violence in comparison to what we've seen in recent decades. 112 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 1: This conflict hit much closer to populated civilian areas, hit 113 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 1: much closer to some of the locations of some of 114 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 1: the highest levels of government, at least on the Pakistani side. 115 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 1: On the military side, you saw air skirmishes taking place 116 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 1: outside of Kashmir along the conventional border between Pakistan and India. 117 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 1: You saw artillery fire traded on both sides. You saw 118 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: the introduction of new types of weaponry, things like Kamakazi drones, 119 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 1: Chinese made fighter jets on the Pakistani side, French made 120 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 1: fighter jets on the Indian side. What several people have 121 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 1: told us is essentially this conflict resets the rules of 122 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 1: the game. It expands the theater around which future conflicts 123 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 1: might take place and also expands the range of weaponry 124 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 1: that might be involved. 125 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 4: Now, tell us about the ceasefire. When did it happen 126 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 4: and how was it actually reached. 127 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: So this ceasefire as we know it together over really 128 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 1: just the course of a few hours of phone calls 129 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: starting from the White House on Friday and Saturday and 130 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: into the weekend. And those phone calls took place between 131 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 1: Marco Rubio and Vice President J. D. Vance and a 132 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 1: number of high level players on the both Indian and 133 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 1: Pakistani side. What took everybody by surprise was Trump's post 134 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: on truth social on Saturday morning in Washington Saturday afternoon 135 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 1: here announcing that a ceasefire had taken place and it 136 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: was a done deal. 137 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 2: After the break, Rebecca and Dan talk about India's reaction 138 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 2: to the truce and to Trump's announcement, and what ruled 139 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 2: China is played in this conflict. India and Pakistan aren't 140 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 2: the only countries disputing control of Kashmir. China claims a 141 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:20,559 Speaker 2: part of the region as well, and as a conflict 142 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 2: between Indian and Pakistan unfolded in the back of everyone's 143 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 2: minds have been the ongoing trade negotiations that both China 144 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:32,199 Speaker 2: and India are conducting with the US. Meanwhile, the US 145 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 2: approach to the tensions between India and Pakistan has been inconsistent. 146 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:40,199 Speaker 2: Last week, Vice President Jay d Vance told Fox News 147 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 2: that the conflict was quote fundamentally none of our business. 148 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 2: Then Trump surprised everyone over the weekend by announcing a ceasefire. 149 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 2: On social media. Rebecca Chung Wilkins asked Bloomberg Dan Strump 150 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:55,959 Speaker 2: how each side is reacting to foreign intervention. 151 00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 1: Each side views the prospect of foreign intervention in this 152 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 1: conflict a little bit differently. On the Indian side, there 153 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 1: has been a very deep seated resistance to any foreign 154 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 1: intervention in the Kashmir conflict. India have used this conflict 155 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 1: as an issue between Pakistan and India to be sorted 156 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 1: out bilaterally. And this is a position that goes back 157 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 1: decades now, and that in some part is because India 158 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 1: has viewed foreign intervention and foreign mediation in this conflict 159 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 1: as being something that might be sympathetic to Pakistan. I 160 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 1: think the Indian side is finding it hard to not 161 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 1: see this as having lost some ground in a way 162 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:49,959 Speaker 1: by especially being backed into accepting some kind of US 163 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:54,679 Speaker 1: role in any kind of ceasepire that is now taking hold. 164 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 1: So in that sense, there's a real sort of sense 165 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 1: of dismay and anger that you see among Indian politicians 166 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 1: and ordinary Indians as well. 167 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 4: And conversely, how was the US's involvement viewed by Pakistan Now? 168 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,959 Speaker 1: Pakistan, of course, has taken the opposite perspective. It wants 169 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 1: foreign intervention in this conflict. It wants foreign brokerage and 170 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: foreign mediation and has sought as much in various forums 171 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 1: around the world, including the United Nation, the Organization of 172 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 1: Islamic Cooperation, and directly appealing to third party countries as 173 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 1: well for mediation in this conflict. There's a real sense 174 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 1: of jubilation and that by bringing in the third party 175 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 1: like the United States, this broker a ceasefire, that this 176 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: is a real victory for Pakistan. And now the two 177 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 1: sides have future issues to discuss, and there's going to 178 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:57,720 Speaker 1: be third parties mediating and potentially laying a roadmap for 179 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 1: conversations that could take place over well who knows how long. 180 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 4: Now, one of the reasons why the US felt like 181 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 4: they had to intervene was because they were worried that 182 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 4: things could take a term for the worst if neither 183 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 4: side ended up de escalating. Can you tell us why 184 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:20,079 Speaker 4: the US was so concerned about a full scale war 185 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 4: breaking out in this part of the world. 186 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: So this conflict for decades now has taken place against 187 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 1: the backdrop of possible nuclear weapons use. Both countries have 188 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons. India maintains a no first strike rule. Pakistan 189 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 1: is ambiguous on how it might or might not use 190 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons. At the same time, is a very strong 191 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 1: incentive for neither country to push the conflict too far. 192 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 1: It's also a reason why you do see foreign powers 193 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 1: who might not otherwise be welcome or have any business 194 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 1: in this conflict stick their nose in, like we just 195 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 1: saw in just the last couple of days. So it 196 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,760 Speaker 1: really is the greatest fear that underlies this whole conflict. 197 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 4: So we're speaking on Monday, May the twelfth. Now, now, 198 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 4: what are the economic implications for both countries if the 199 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 4: ceasefire doesn't hold. 200 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 1: Pakistan remains mired in a real economic crisis and is 201 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 1: in the midst of trying to obtain access to I 202 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 1: think around seven billion dollars worth of loans from the 203 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 1: International Monetary Fund and it badly needs that money. Now, 204 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: on the Indian side, this conflict really was not a priority. 205 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 1: India was under the impression that it was largely not 206 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 1: quite settled, but a conflict that was more or less 207 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: under control and wasn't really at risk of flaring up again. 208 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 1: And so as a result, you had India really turning 209 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 1: its attention elsewhere. Mody had really spent a lot of 210 00:13:57,480 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 1: time in the last couple of years trying to bolster 211 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 1: relationship with Europe, with the Middle East, of course, with 212 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:07,200 Speaker 1: the US, and arguably the most pressing item on Modi's 213 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 1: international agenda was negotiating a trade deal with the US 214 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:14,560 Speaker 1: until this conflict broke out. And on the data that 215 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 1: the conflict broke out, Mody was actually hosting Vice President JD. 216 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 1: Vance in India, where the two talked about a number 217 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 1: of things, but talked about this trade deal that the 218 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 1: two countries are trying to hammer out. And it's been 219 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 1: a real distraction, you could say, for both sides, which 220 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 1: is probably a pretty good incentive for the two to 221 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 1: also hold the ceasefire and try to put the conflict 222 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 1: behind them at least for now. 223 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 4: You mentioned Vice President jd Vance was in India during 224 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 4: the Kashmir attack. He visited India actually with his family 225 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 4: and dined with Prime Minister Modi at his residence, and 226 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 4: last week he said that the conflict was fundamentally none 227 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 4: of the US's business, but that then did appear to change. 228 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 4: So how should we see the US in this relationship. 229 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 4: Do you see the the US taking a backseat if 230 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:05,120 Speaker 4: this conflict develops further, or do you see it taking 231 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 4: a more interventionist role from here? 232 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 1: It's hard to see how the US, how the Trump 233 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 1: administration can take a backseat. Now after all of the 234 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: sort of tweets and posts and proclamations online, I think 235 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 1: the US has fully inserted itself into this conflict, whether 236 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 1: it wants to be or not. And that is potentially 237 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 1: a problem for the US and for the Trump White House, 238 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: which is really stretching itself as it tries to play 239 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 1: peacemaker in all these different conflicts around the world. Trump, 240 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 1: of course, pledged from day one to solve the Ukraine 241 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 1: Russia conflict that's still ongoing. The conflict in Gaza is 242 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 1: still ongoing. And now you've got so I'm sticking his 243 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 1: nose into this conflict as well. You know, now it 244 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: remains to be seen what shape exactly this purported US 245 00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 1: mediation is going to take. And as I said, a 246 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 1: lot of people on the Indian side have really just 247 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: rejected the idea of US intervention at all. So we'll 248 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: just have to see exactly how this looks. 249 00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 4: What about China, who has been such a supporter of Pakistan, 250 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 4: where do you see its role potentially in this dynamic. 251 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: China has been one of those countries that from the 252 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: beginning has been calling for both sides to de escalate, 253 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 1: but it's also made very clear that it is on 254 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 1: the side of Pakistan in this dispute, and that backing 255 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 1: has really increased in the last couple of years in 256 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 1: the form of foreign investment in weapons sales as well. 257 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 1: And you saw the introduction of some of that on 258 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 1: the battlefield in just the last couple of days. And 259 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 1: you know, that's a real complicating factor for India because 260 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: India and China don't get along. India Pakistan don't get along, 261 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 1: the US and China don't get along, and now you 262 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 1: have the US in India increasingly getting along. So this 263 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 1: is very quickly turning into a sort of However, many 264 00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 1: ways fight in this part of the world, so it 265 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 1: does make the world look, at least on the margin, 266 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 1: a little bit more risky and a little bit more dangerous. 267 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 4: Dan, thank you so much for making time. Thanks for 268 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 4: joining us. 269 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:11,640 Speaker 1: Thank you so much. 270 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:17,920 Speaker 2: This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm 271 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:21,119 Speaker 2: wan ha. This episode was produced by Young Young and 272 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,199 Speaker 2: Naomi mm. It was edited by Patti Hirsh and Daniel 273 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 2: Tankate in fact check by Bloomberg's editorial team. It was 274 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 2: mixed and sound designed by Alex Suguiera. Our senior producer 275 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 2: is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponzo. Our 276 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 2: deputy executive producer is Julia Weaver. Our executive producer is 277 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 2: Nicole Beemster Bower. Sage Bowman is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. 278 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:45,919 Speaker 2: If you like this episode, make sure to subscribe and 279 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 2: review The Big Take Asia wherever you listen to podcasts. 280 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 2: It really helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. 281 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 2: See you next time.