1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,599
Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

2
00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,200
Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

3
00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,840
Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

4
00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:08,720
Speaker 2: the future of the show.

5
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:10,760
Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

6
00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,280
Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

7
00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:14,640
Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

8
00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:17,080
Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

9
00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,599
Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

10
00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,920
Speaker 2: you'll access to our full shows, unedited, ad free, and

11
00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:25,600
Speaker 2: all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

12
00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:27,560
Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

13
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,920
Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at breakingpoints

14
00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:33,440
Speaker 3: dot com.

15
00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:35,600
Speaker 4: All right, good morning, and welcome to Breaking Points. Emily

16
00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:38,080
Speaker 4: is joining us from the road, which you would know

17
00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:40,120
Speaker 4: if you'd sign up for the newsletter. Actually we didn't,

18
00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:42,479
Speaker 4: tease if we can put the newsletter up there. Reminder,

19
00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:44,920
Speaker 4: if you go to Breakingpoints dot com, you can sign

20
00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,600
Speaker 4: up for this free newsletter that we sum up sums

21
00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:50,360
Speaker 4: up the show. For premium subscribers, it's going to have

22
00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:52,760
Speaker 4: the link to the you know, the ad free, you know,

23
00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:56,000
Speaker 4: full show. For those who are just getting the newsletter,

24
00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:57,680
Speaker 4: it's just going to tell them, you know what was

25
00:00:57,720 --> 00:00:59,680
Speaker 4: in the show and then they can find that, you know,

26
00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:04,440
Speaker 4: wherever they want. But Emily, thank you for joining us

27
00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:06,880
Speaker 4: from the road. I know you'll be able to be

28
00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:12,080
Speaker 4: here for a segment or two and you know looking

29
00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:13,480
Speaker 4: forward to us a safe trip back.

30
00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:16,080
Speaker 5: Yes, no, I appreciate you guys like this.

31
00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:17,479
Speaker 6: Is one of the things I love about the team

32
00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:19,960
Speaker 6: is I had to get home for a family thing

33
00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,240
Speaker 6: pretty quickly, and it's just amazing you guys pick up

34
00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:25,160
Speaker 6: so much of the slack. So I'm really grateful, happy

35
00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:28,640
Speaker 6: to be joining from the Milwaukee Airport today and we've

36
00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:32,440
Speaker 6: got a big show. Actually strikes launched, Military strikes, skins

37
00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:36,200
Speaker 6: run launched just in the hours before we began recording this.

38
00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:39,160
Speaker 6: So we're going to break down updates from Iran, and

39
00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:40,959
Speaker 6: we have much more to get to Brian as well.

40
00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:43,000
Speaker 6: You have a huge slate of guests lined up, So

41
00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,520
Speaker 6: Robert Pepe is going to be here, going to cover

42
00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:46,440
Speaker 6: that Ice shooting.

43
00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:48,640
Speaker 5: There's so much to get to this point.

44
00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, Wandavid Rojas will be here to talk about you

45
00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:55,400
Speaker 4: know who the who the man was who was shot

46
00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:59,600
Speaker 4: by Ice agents in Maine. Another Mexican man was shot

47
00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:02,960
Speaker 4: in not shot, was hit by a truck in Florida

48
00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 4: after an encounter with ice. Emily will stick around with

49
00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:12,640
Speaker 4: us to talk about the New York ban on data centers,

50
00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:15,600
Speaker 4: or at least a moratorium on data centers. We're going

51
00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,480
Speaker 4: to also talk about an interview we did yesterday on

52
00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,560
Speaker 4: drop Site with Rocanna where he and Jeremy Skahill went

53
00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:27,280
Speaker 4: back on the legitimacy of armed resistance, as well as

54
00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,200
Speaker 4: whether or not there should be a full arms embargo

55
00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,359
Speaker 4: on Israel. Will also have news in that Julian andrew

56
00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:38,200
Speaker 4: And from drop Site News interviewed AOC about whether or

57
00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:40,520
Speaker 4: not she supports an arms in Bargo and she said,

58
00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,200
Speaker 4: in fact, yes she does. At the back end of

59
00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:45,680
Speaker 4: the show, will be joined by Donovan McKinney, who's a

60
00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:51,320
Speaker 4: DSA and Justice Democrats backed candidate running in Detroit who

61
00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:55,160
Speaker 4: is very likely to oust an incumbent in early August,

62
00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,200
Speaker 4: so you're gonna want to stick around for that. We'll

63
00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,560
Speaker 4: also ask him about the abdulh Side Hailly Even's race

64
00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:03,799
Speaker 4: Will Lawrence race, which is getting hot in Michigan as well.

65
00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:07,919
Speaker 4: Wanted to start with some I guess we're going.

66
00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,120
Speaker 7: To call it good news. It what led up to.

67
00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:13,560
Speaker 4: It is not good news, but the event this morning

68
00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:18,680
Speaker 4: is in fact great news. Muja Had al Sadi, very

69
00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,720
Speaker 4: well respected, well regarded veteran journalists in the West Bank,

70
00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:25,320
Speaker 4: who's written for drop site as well, was finally released

71
00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:27,360
Speaker 4: after nearly two years, and we put up a seven

72
00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:32,280
Speaker 4: of administrative detention in Israeli custody. In other words, no

73
00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:39,120
Speaker 4: charges whatsoever wherever filed against mujahead he last he last

74
00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:44,119
Speaker 4: wrote for a drop site in September of twenty twenty four.

75
00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:48,120
Speaker 4: Here here he is being reunited with his with his

76
00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:53,040
Speaker 4: father again. There are thousands of Palestinians, many many journalists,

77
00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:55,400
Speaker 4: and here here he is meeting his family on the

78
00:03:55,440 --> 00:04:00,160
Speaker 4: road after being dropped dropped off. Who has who are

79
00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:04,560
Speaker 4: able under the Israelis the Israeli, let's call it law,

80
00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:07,200
Speaker 4: to be able to be kept in prison for six

81
00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:10,600
Speaker 4: months on what they call administrative detention, meaning zero charges,

82
00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,680
Speaker 4: no right to challenge your detention, and then every six

83
00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,000
Speaker 4: months they can just reop it. We had been petitioning

84
00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:21,080
Speaker 4: for his release for nearly two years now and we're

85
00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:23,560
Speaker 4: deeply glad for him and his family that he's that

86
00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:26,280
Speaker 4: he's released and looking forward to seeing him get back

87
00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:31,880
Speaker 4: to the the business of journalism, Emily, He's being released

88
00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:39,480
Speaker 4: into the reignition of the war between between the United States, Israel,

89
00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:43,760
Speaker 4: and Iran. We could not get anywhere near through all

90
00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,560
Speaker 4: of the period of the memorandum understanding without it unraveling.

91
00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:52,440
Speaker 4: We can put up a zero here sentcom announcing a

92
00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,520
Speaker 4: new a new wave of strikes. At six six am

93
00:04:55,640 --> 00:05:00,159
Speaker 4: Eastern today, sen Commonalth forces began launching a wave of

94
00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,360
Speaker 4: strikes against Iran. The strikes are designed to further degrade

95
00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:08,400
Speaker 4: military capability capabilities Iranian forces have used to attack commercial

96
00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:12,479
Speaker 4: shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Now the targets so

97
00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:18,839
Speaker 4: far for the United States have included a barracks that

98
00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,800
Speaker 4: would the Iranian Armies three hundred and eighty eighth Brigade

99
00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:25,599
Speaker 4: in Bombpor. So this is a This was a dormitory

100
00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:29,920
Speaker 4: that was housing conscripts that the United States struck overnight,

101
00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:35,440
Speaker 4: resulting in what appears to be a mass casually event. Now, clearly,

102
00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:39,440
Speaker 4: if you're conscripted into the military, you are a military

103
00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:44,200
Speaker 4: asset and a military target. But it's just it's just

104
00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:49,680
Speaker 4: not remotely obvious, like how there's a kind of military

105
00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:54,800
Speaker 4: benefit to striking a dormitory filled with conscripts in any event,

106
00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:57,080
Speaker 4: that's that's what they did.

107
00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,480
Speaker 6: Let's and sitcoms explanation as people just saw on their

108
00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:04,560
Speaker 6: screen is that this was being used to degrade or

109
00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,960
Speaker 6: it was being used straight up for moves wise, was

110
00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:12,479
Speaker 6: being used to degrade capacities that were used in the right.

111
00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:15,240
Speaker 4: They're claiming everything, Yeah, they're claiming everything they're hitting is

112
00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:19,240
Speaker 4: related somehow to Iron's ability to control the straight although,

113
00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:21,360
Speaker 4: of course, as long as you have a few land

114
00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:23,240
Speaker 4: mines and a few drones left, you can control the

115
00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:23,960
Speaker 4: straight up from moves.

116
00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,080
Speaker 7: So I don't quite know how hitting this dorm, but

117
00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:27,000
Speaker 7: you can go ahead.

118
00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:28,680
Speaker 6: Well, I was gonna say more news on that front.

119
00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:31,599
Speaker 6: We'll get to Trump's toll comments from yesterday in just

120
00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:33,359
Speaker 6: a second. I do want to just take a moment.

121
00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:35,760
Speaker 6: I mean, military spent dot org is a great website.

122
00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:39,560
Speaker 6: They have the total death count in this war right now,

123
00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:43,560
Speaker 6: so that's across all of the different countries. So this

124
00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:48,800
Speaker 6: includes combined confirmed and estimated deaths across the US, Iranian military,

125
00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:51,400
Speaker 6: Iranian and Israeli civilians that it needs civilians has built

126
00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:54,040
Speaker 6: of fighters in Gulf State casualties right now. This is

127
00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,640
Speaker 6: eight thousand, nine hundred and sixty six on the low

128
00:06:56,720 --> 00:07:00,000
Speaker 6: end and eighteen thousand, three hundred on the high end.

129
00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:04,040
Speaker 6: So in the United States we've had fourteen to sixteen

130
00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:09,720
Speaker 6: deaths across the region. This dethil is much higher than

131
00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,000
Speaker 6: I think we've even discussed here in the US.

132
00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:13,720
Speaker 7: I think that's a good point.

133
00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,080
Speaker 4: And also I think even though the US has not

134
00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:20,480
Speaker 4: achieved it's kind of military objectives, like the level of

135
00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:24,080
Speaker 4: destruction that has been rained down upon Iran is, you know,

136
00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:29,880
Speaker 4: should not be underestimated. Some new grain sites were hit

137
00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,880
Speaker 4: overnight by the United States inside Iran. We also hit

138
00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:36,440
Speaker 4: a kind of mineral water processing facility, so you know,

139
00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:39,720
Speaker 4: we're going after the you know, the very basics of

140
00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,880
Speaker 4: life there. And that's, of course, after the Israelis have

141
00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:46,080
Speaker 4: boasted about having destroyed, you know, every village that they

142
00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:49,520
Speaker 4: could reach in southern Lebanon. But let's listen to a

143
00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:52,480
Speaker 4: little bit of Trump explaining is rationale here.

144
00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,080
Speaker 7: It's a two with the plants, with everything else.

145
00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,520
Speaker 8: And we would like to invest tremendously in the United

146
00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:02,080
Speaker 8: States as opposed to charging a fee. And I like

147
00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:04,320
Speaker 8: that actually because I don't think anybody should be able

148
00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:07,520
Speaker 8: to charge a fee for the for the straight or

149
00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:12,480
Speaker 8: for any other straight relationship in terms of other sections

150
00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:14,960
Speaker 8: of the world. I don't think anybody should be really

151
00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:18,280
Speaker 8: in that position. But we were doing it as a reimbursement.

152
00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:21,680
Speaker 8: The Gulf States are going to invest a tremendous amount

153
00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:25,080
Speaker 8: of money into the United States, and that was very

154
00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:26,080
Speaker 8: satisfactory to me.

155
00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:27,679
Speaker 9: I think it's actually much.

156
00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:29,040
Speaker 7: Better so Emily.

157
00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:32,280
Speaker 4: That is Trump saying that, Okay, maybe the twenty percent

158
00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,200
Speaker 4: fee that he was going to charge was a little

159
00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:38,240
Speaker 4: bit high, and so he's back to, I guess doing

160
00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:41,839
Speaker 4: it for free, except in exchange for the generosity of

161
00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:45,400
Speaker 4: the Gulf States. The Trump announcing that he was going

162
00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,680
Speaker 4: to charge a twenty percent fee was really quite a

163
00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:53,240
Speaker 4: diplomatic own goal, because the US had consistently been saying

164
00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:57,480
Speaker 4: that the principle is that they're in international waterways, there

165
00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:01,040
Speaker 4: cannot be a toll charged, and iron had been talking

166
00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:02,840
Speaker 4: about charging a one to two percent fee.

167
00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:04,720
Speaker 7: Something like a million dollars per ship.

168
00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:10,800
Speaker 4: The Iranians quickly embraced Trump's idea that he was going

169
00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,600
Speaker 4: to put forward this this twenty percent fee, and they

170
00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:15,640
Speaker 4: just said, we agree there should be a fee. We're

171
00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:17,560
Speaker 4: going to charge one percent, he's going to charge twenty

172
00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:24,840
Speaker 4: which which which would you prefer? So yeah, let's roll

173
00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,400
Speaker 4: a little bit more Trump and then and then yeah,

174
00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:28,760
Speaker 4: discuss or go ahead?

175
00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:29,520
Speaker 7: Did you have a right?

176
00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:31,480
Speaker 6: And I was gonna say just yeah, just to see

177
00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:33,439
Speaker 6: this up. So that was Trump talking in the White

178
00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,720
Speaker 6: House yesterday. We have more soundbites from that press availability

179
00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:38,720
Speaker 6: he did, but he also sat down for an interview

180
00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,600
Speaker 6: with Fox News where he talked a little bit about

181
00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:43,440
Speaker 6: the deal making process. And I know, Ryan, you have

182
00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:45,760
Speaker 6: some recording behind the scenes that you're than you get to.

183
00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:49,920
Speaker 6: But this is Donald Trump yesterday with Trey Yinks of

184
00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:53,439
Speaker 6: Fox News talking about where things stand. And again, let's

185
00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:55,760
Speaker 6: just just we don't need to do this breaking points.

186
00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:59,079
Speaker 6: Audience understands this perfectly clearly. But before the war, for

187
00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:04,360
Speaker 6: the war straight upfore news was open and there was

188
00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:08,120
Speaker 6: of course no war. So I mean, it's just ridiculous

189
00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:10,680
Speaker 6: even to hear him now say things like what you're

190
00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,160
Speaker 6: about to hear from this Fox News interview.

191
00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:15,240
Speaker 5: This is a three.

192
00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:16,880
Speaker 10: Three days ago, we had a deal.

193
00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,600
Speaker 1: When was the last time you spoke with an Iranian official?

194
00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:23,480
Speaker 10: Well, not me, but let's say my representatives. I have

195
00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:27,240
Speaker 10: spoken to him, but my representatives the course of.

196
00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:33,240
Speaker 1: Well, actually an hour ago and what message was delivered.

197
00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:35,440
Speaker 10: They want to make a deal, but every time they

198
00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,000
Speaker 10: make a deal they break it. They don't want to die.

199
00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:41,400
Speaker 10: People don't want to die. Yeah, about an.

200
00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:44,640
Speaker 1: Hour ago, and what message was delivered.

201
00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:47,680
Speaker 10: You better make a deal. You're not going to have

202
00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:51,440
Speaker 10: any You're not gonna have anybody left. We're being very

203
00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:55,000
Speaker 10: careful with the civilian population, as you know. But I said,

204
00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:57,199
Speaker 10: you better make a deal. You're not gonna have anything left.

205
00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:00,960
Speaker 10: And you think they will, I don't know if they

206
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:01,440
Speaker 10: will or not.

207
00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:05,160
Speaker 6: That's a not so build threat against civilians, which you've

208
00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:06,480
Speaker 6: seen at different points in the war.

209
00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:06,760
Speaker 11: Right.

210
00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:11,800
Speaker 6: Let's also now take a look at well, actually just

211
00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:15,120
Speaker 6: let's let's pause on that point for a moment. We've

212
00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:16,439
Speaker 6: seen that a couple of times over the course of

213
00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:18,599
Speaker 6: the war him make threats like that.

214
00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:22,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, and what's so unusual about Trump is that he

215
00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:27,760
Speaker 4: makes so many wild threats against his enemies. He's going

216
00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:31,920
Speaker 4: to annihilate their civilization. There won't be anybody left. That

217
00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:35,880
Speaker 4: the Iranians even insisted on putting into the MoU that

218
00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:37,160
Speaker 4: he would stop making.

219
00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:39,160
Speaker 7: Threats like that.

220
00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:41,360
Speaker 4: That is not the kind of thing that would normally

221
00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:45,760
Speaker 4: go into a set of negotiating talking points, right because

222
00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:49,320
Speaker 4: you reach a ceasefire with the other side. It's it's

223
00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:52,480
Speaker 4: just kind of assumed that because you've reached a ceasefire,

224
00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:57,360
Speaker 4: neither side is going to threaten to annihilate the other

225
00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:02,400
Speaker 4: side while you're engaged in the talks produced by the ceasefire.

226
00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:07,720
Speaker 4: That's not Trump, though, and so the Iranians even insisted

227
00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:09,880
Speaker 4: that one of the deal points put in the MU

228
00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:15,080
Speaker 4: was you will stop threatening to annihilate our civilization. And

229
00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:19,800
Speaker 4: it's kind of stunning that Trump can't stop threatening to

230
00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,319
Speaker 4: genocide in an entire population, Like when you say there

231
00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:27,000
Speaker 4: will be nobody left. There's only one way to read that,

232
00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:30,760
Speaker 4: like that that is not like that, is that is

233
00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:35,640
Speaker 4: nothing other than a threat of complete and total civilizational annihilation.

234
00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:39,040
Speaker 4: And I think everyone is kind of immune to it,

235
00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:41,720
Speaker 4: including the Iranians at this point. But it doesn't make

236
00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:44,040
Speaker 4: it any I mean, I guess it makes it a little

237
00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,040
Speaker 4: less disturbing because they kind of chuckle it off. But

238
00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:52,720
Speaker 4: when they're out there attacking water facilities, attacking grain facilities,

239
00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:58,440
Speaker 4: attacking a dorm where soldiers are sleeping, where that you know,

240
00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,280
Speaker 4: there's no I still would love to see some rationale

241
00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:05,000
Speaker 4: of why they hit that. Meanwhile, let's let's put up

242
00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:08,800
Speaker 4: a six, which is what the what the Iranians are doing,

243
00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:15,280
Speaker 4: which is attacking, attacking military facilities. This is I believe

244
00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:18,120
Speaker 4: a cruise, a cruise missile attack b listic missile attack

245
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:25,840
Speaker 4: in Bahrain. And you see there and as this is Jordan.

246
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:25,160
Speaker 7: A six is Jordan.

247
00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:29,640
Speaker 4: So you have these PAC three Patriot missile interceptors that

248
00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:32,160
Speaker 4: are you can see kind of you can see them

249
00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:33,400
Speaker 4: kind of flying.

250
00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:33,679
Speaker 7: By in the night.

251
00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:37,120
Speaker 4: There those are about I think four million dollars apiece.

252
00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,760
Speaker 7: There goes one and as you see it missed.

253
00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:42,520
Speaker 9: Uh.

254
00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:46,400
Speaker 4: The Blistic missiles are estimated to be somewhere between four

255
00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:49,800
Speaker 4: hundred and six hundred thousand dollars apiece, so you know,

256
00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:55,160
Speaker 4: basically an order of magnitude cheaper than the Patriot missiles.

257
00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:59,679
Speaker 4: And what some of the kind of osant folks were

258
00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:03,520
Speaker 4: observed serving as they were watching this, you know, this

259
00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:07,080
Speaker 4: base in Jordan getting pummeled, was that after a while

260
00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,920
Speaker 4: they stopped shooting the Patriots, which suggested that the radar

261
00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:14,440
Speaker 4: system suggested to the radar system that is used to

262
00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:17,319
Speaker 4: make sure that the patriots can you know, can be

263
00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:21,760
Speaker 4: launched with some accuracy had itself been destroyed, and so

264
00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:23,520
Speaker 4: I think they're just kind of left vulnerable.

265
00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:25,760
Speaker 6: Well, I was gonna say, we can also toggle through

266
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:29,160
Speaker 6: a one here. So what you're going to see Iranian

267
00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:32,840
Speaker 6: strikes against Bahrain, and you see Iranian strikes against Kuwait

268
00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,280
Speaker 6: and then more from Jordan.

269
00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:39,240
Speaker 7: Resident thrown with a warhead on it.

270
00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:41,560
Speaker 6: That you could look at all this the shape of it,

271
00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:44,480
Speaker 6: I was gonna say, and look at all this healthcare

272
00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:48,080
Speaker 6: and education and infrastructure is just getting blown up in

273
00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:48,520
Speaker 6: the air.

274
00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:51,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, and so and right and here is that was

275
00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:55,000
Speaker 4: a ron firing kind of these like cluster bombs to

276
00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:58,360
Speaker 4: get around the the interceptors.

277
00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:03,840
Speaker 7: Another direct hit. You know what this is.

278
00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,200
Speaker 4: It's a reminder that we still had some kind of

279
00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:11,400
Speaker 4: military material left behind. And Trump, I guess decided that

280
00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:15,400
Speaker 4: he wanted to see that get that get destroyed as

281
00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:18,960
Speaker 4: as well. You know, they they're the Iranians are claiming.

282
00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:20,880
Speaker 7: That they hit.

283
00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:26,200
Speaker 4: Ship parts, weapons storage and aircraft parts warehouses in Bahrain

284
00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:31,120
Speaker 4: and m Q nine drone storage in Kuwait.

285
00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:34,360
Speaker 7: A warehouse UH.

286
00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:37,400
Speaker 4: In Kuwait that was the that was a major kind

287
00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:42,360
Speaker 4: of support center satellite communication UH center connected to the

288
00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:45,520
Speaker 4: the m M one O four, a patriot defense system.

289
00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:48,680
Speaker 4: They also in Kuwait. They also claim in Kuwait they

290
00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:55,800
Speaker 4: targeted these Himar's missile launchers, which they're the guesses camp

291
00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,440
Speaker 4: can't bearing which if if so, is a you know,

292
00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:02,120
Speaker 4: is AUP to have hit that and also would expose

293
00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:06,200
Speaker 4: this sort of attempted lie that nobody really takes seriously

294
00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:10,760
Speaker 4: that there aren't no launches coming from Kuwait, which I

295
00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:13,600
Speaker 4: think everybody understands that there are. And then they went

296
00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:19,360
Speaker 4: after hangars where drones and an American military jets were

297
00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:23,040
Speaker 4: stationed as well in Jordan. We don't know if they

298
00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:24,560
Speaker 4: were still there, we don't know if they were hit,

299
00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:29,560
Speaker 4: and as well as the management center and ammunition and

300
00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,400
Speaker 4: fuel storages that were in Bahrain where the US Navy

301
00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:37,160
Speaker 4: fifth Support Base is. And we're seeing a lot of

302
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:40,080
Speaker 4: footage emerged from these strikes in real time. And this

303
00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:42,360
Speaker 4: goes back to the point I was making curious for

304
00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:46,480
Speaker 4: your take on this that when Trump first launched this war,

305
00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:50,520
Speaker 4: he had basically a full battery of defense. He had

306
00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:52,880
Speaker 4: a lot of troops in the in the Gulf and

307
00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:55,200
Speaker 4: in Iraq. He had two aircraft carrier groups. He had,

308
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,360
Speaker 4: you know, the full naval missile defense system at the ready.

309
00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,920
Speaker 4: He's now restarting this war in a much hobbled position.

310
00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:06,440
Speaker 4: At the beginning of the war, you did not see

311
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:11,879
Speaker 4: this level of penetration of air defenses, and so he

312
00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:16,720
Speaker 4: failed strategically the first time around with a full magazine

313
00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:19,879
Speaker 4: of offensive and defensive weapons. I don't understand how he

314
00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:23,520
Speaker 4: thinks he's going to do better this time around in

315
00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:25,199
Speaker 4: a much weakened and depleted position.

316
00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:27,439
Speaker 6: Well, and I was gonna say, you're about to bring

317
00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 6: on Robert Pate, but the only way that he can

318
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,840
Speaker 6: is to escalate, right The only way is either stay

319
00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,199
Speaker 6: in this folding pattern for a matter of months, as

320
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:37,439
Speaker 6: I think is being telegraphed right now, which means that

321
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,760
Speaker 6: all Republicans who are going to run or who are

322
00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:42,359
Speaker 6: running right now on the cycler, are going to have

323
00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:46,360
Speaker 6: to defend this constantly up until November, gas prices probably

324
00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:50,200
Speaker 6: remaining way too high for consumers. If we don't see

325
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,840
Speaker 6: another spike, we'll still probably see prices be too high,

326
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,600
Speaker 6: and all of it for either remaining in a holding

327
00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:01,040
Speaker 6: pattern or escalating, I think that's pretty clearly the only

328
00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 6: option in from the trunk right now, or take a

329
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:07,920
Speaker 6: massive lt right That's again we've been talking about this

330
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 6: since the war began, but that's those are the three options.

331
00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:12,600
Speaker 6: They continue to be the three options. And the question

332
00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:17,240
Speaker 6: for him is whether the holding pattern is durable, you know,

333
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:23,919
Speaker 6: politically and substantively for his position. And it's impossible to

334
00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,000
Speaker 6: know what he's thinking other than that he doesn't want

335
00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:29,600
Speaker 6: to either escalate or take an ol so eager to

336
00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:31,280
Speaker 6: hear Professor Paps take on all of this and I

337
00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,040
Speaker 6: know you're about to have a conversation with him, ran Yeah.

338
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,600
Speaker 4: And meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, apparently with US Blessing, decided that

339
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,520
Speaker 4: it was this was the right time to strike Yemen,

340
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:44,000
Speaker 4: to strike ans A law movement knows that the Hoothis

341
00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,119
Speaker 4: have now shot back and hit a bunch of different

342
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,000
Speaker 4: facilities in Saudi Arabia, so they're going to close the

343
00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,680
Speaker 4: babel Men depth straight. You combine that with the strait

344
00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,960
Speaker 4: of horm Moves getting closed again, it's a total disaster

345
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:56,600
Speaker 4: for the global economy. And when it comes to the

346
00:18:56,600 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 4: American position, there was a very interesting moment in in

347
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,919
Speaker 4: President Trump's meeting yesterday with the Iraqi Prime minister, in

348
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,760
Speaker 4: which he basically said, if you can read between the

349
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:09,960
Speaker 4: lines here that we've been kicked out of Iraq, let's

350
00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,159
Speaker 4: roll a five to round us out.

351
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 8: The military there anymore. It's a very big operation. And

352
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,560
Speaker 8: what we do have is the oil companies are all

353
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:24,880
Speaker 8: going in now and they're doing partnerships with Iraq and

354
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,880
Speaker 8: they're getting along very well. The relationship is a whole

355
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,600
Speaker 8: big relationship where we don't need the military. We're there

356
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:33,399
Speaker 8: to help them, we're there to protect them if need be,

357
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,119
Speaker 8: but we don't think that's going to be necessary. And

358
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,160
Speaker 8: their primary I considered an opponent. They might have considered

359
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:44,439
Speaker 8: a friend, but I considered that an opponent. Iran was

360
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 8: a big burden on Iraq because they were the believe

361
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,639
Speaker 8: the Middle East, as you know, and we were just

362
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 8: talking about that. But they're not going to have that

363
00:19:54,119 --> 00:20:00,239
Speaker 8: problem anymore because Iran has been very much destabilized and

364
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:05,639
Speaker 8: really their military powers just a tiny fraction of what

365
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 8: it was just four months ago.

366
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 4: So Emily, we have beaten Iran so badly that we

367
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 4: don't even need to be in Iraq anymore. That's the

368
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:16,640
Speaker 4: that's the argument that Trump was paking there.

369
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,640
Speaker 6: And you're reading that person as US being kicked out

370
00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 6: of Iraq as opposed to Trump's framing of it.

371
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 4: Right, right, Yeah, American troops in Iraq were always the

372
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,840
Speaker 4: greatest vulnerability to Iran because they're the for us to

373
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,360
Speaker 4: Iran because they are the closest and the easiest targets.

374
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,280
Speaker 4: Before we launched the war, we basically just moved as

375
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,200
Speaker 4: much of the personnel out of the Green Zone as

376
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,120
Speaker 4: we could, which is fortunate as it got completely lit up,

377
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:44,160
Speaker 4: not just by Iran but also the Iranian allied militias.

378
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:44,240
Speaker 7: That are there.

379
00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:48,640
Speaker 4: So yeah, there's Trump talking about that we're basically finally

380
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 4: done with Iraq. But it was don't worry. It was

381
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 4: his choice and it was on his terms. It was victorious,

382
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,640
Speaker 4: and we've just so weakened Iran that we don't even

383
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 4: need to be there anymore. So I guess congratulations to

384
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,160
Speaker 4: us and to the American people for one more victory

385
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:08,600
Speaker 4: under the second Trump term.

386
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:12,760
Speaker 6: Well, certainly a victory for the Pape theory. And if

387
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,439
Speaker 6: we see this start to escalate, I mean you just

388
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 6: mentioned strikes on Yemen.

389
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 5: The region is hanging by a.

390
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:23,640
Speaker 6: Threat obviously, so it's it could signif again we don't

391
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,320
Speaker 6: need to tell breaking boys viruses. But it could significantly.

392
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 6: It could get significantly worse.

393
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 5: Than it is.

394
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,680
Speaker 7: Just at any moment it could.

395
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 5: Let's bring in Professor.

396
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 4: Grape, the good professor. President Trump asked about ground troops

397
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 4: in Iran is.

398
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,360
Speaker 7: Well, you go ahead and listen. This is be one you.

399
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,119
Speaker 12: Posted today on true social comments that you made back

400
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 12: in nineteen eighty eight about carg Island. And at the

401
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 12: time you said, one bullet shot at one of our

402
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,959
Speaker 12: men or ships, and I'd do a number on carg Island.

403
00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 1: I'd go in and take it. Do you still intend

404
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 1: to take cardo?

405
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 2: Oh.

406
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 10: I can't say that to you because if I did,

407
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,360
Speaker 10: it would be foolish. But every nice make a little headlines,

408
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,440
Speaker 10: but it would be foolish. But I'll tell you about

409
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:09,119
Speaker 10: carg Island.

410
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 12: So we've already are not really not a ground campaign

411
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 12: in a limited capacity.

412
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 10: I don't want to say that either, but I would

413
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:20,119
Speaker 10: say no if I thought it was appropriate. Sometimes you

414
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,359
Speaker 10: need a ground campaign. But we have other people that

415
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 10: will do the ground campaign for us.

416
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 1: But we already hit.

417
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 10: Carg Island, as you know twice, even three times. I

418
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:31,920
Speaker 10: said hit everything, but the oil just leave that little

419
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:34,119
Speaker 10: area if I'm twenty five yards out, leave that a

420
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 10: little area. Don't touch you ill, because I don't want that.

421
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 10: In terms of the world economy, it's you know, it's

422
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 10: a chunk of the world economy.

423
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:43,199
Speaker 8: So we haven't hit that.

424
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 10: At some point we could, but I think it's unlikely

425
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 10: as far as taking it is concerned, if we degrade

426
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,680
Speaker 10: them far enough and deep enough back all.

427
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,680
Speaker 4: Right, So we had hoped that we had somehow escaped

428
00:22:55,000 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 4: the escalation trap into the warm embrace of the memorandum

429
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:05,159
Speaker 4: of understanding reached between the United States and Iran. Unfortunately,

430
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,399
Speaker 4: it seems like that trap is tinged just as tightly

431
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 4: around our ankles. We can put up B two here

432
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 4: Professor Robert Pape's piece yesterday over his sub stack, the

433
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 4: escalation trap. The escalation trap has entered a new phase,

434
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 4: joining us to discuss kind of what that new phase

435
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:29,400
Speaker 4: is is. University of Chicago, Professor Robert Pape, Professor, thanks

436
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 4: for being here.

437
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 9: Thank you very much for having me.

438
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 7: Yeah, you got it so.

439
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 4: Hoping that we had moved on, not quite what was

440
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 4: it in your assessment that kind of pulled us back in?

441
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 11: Yes, Well, thank you for talking about this. This is

442
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 11: really quite a tragic moment. We're entering some of the

443
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 11: most dangerous weeks of this war, quite likely, and people

444
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 11: are thinking, well, this is just a turn to say

445
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 11: March or early April. It could be much worse than that,

446
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 11: and we haven't gotten there yet. But where we are

447
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 11: at is very predictable. So as your recall, there have

448
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 11: been three core stages of the escalation trap. Stage one

449
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 11: is where you have regime change bombing that kills leaders

450
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 11: but leaves America weaker because you get a stage two,

451
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 11: which is although we kill the leaders and hit targets,

452
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 11: Iran lashes back in a horizontal escalation campaign and takes

453
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:37,120
Speaker 11: horror moves and now controls twenty percent of the world's energy, and.

454
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 9: We will take every effort.

455
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 11: We tried punishment campaign for six weeks airpower that failed,

456
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 11: we tried two month blockade that failed, and we are

457
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 11: still where we are with stage three, which is the

458
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:57,159
Speaker 11: ground power dilemma. So if you go to February twenty

459
00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 11: fifth on the escalation trap, three days before the bombing

460
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 11: ULLs see all these stages laid out before the war,

461
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,679
Speaker 11: and we would get to the ground power dilemma, and

462
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 11: that's where we are today.

463
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 9: Now, what is that dilemma.

464
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 11: Either we physically take Horrorm moves back and you're seeing

465
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 11: President Trump repositioning forces to do that, and we can

466
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:19,479
Speaker 11: talk about the details, including the ground operations, or we don't,

467
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 11: and you get what I call stage four, which is

468
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 11: Iran becomes the fourth center of world power. Over the

469
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 11: next year or so, it continues to control Horrmus and

470
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 11: reball the economic benefits from that, it spreads its sphere

471
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 11: of influence here to basically go from Lebanon to the

472
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 11: Red Sea to the Gulf. And you see they're basically

473
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 11: beginning to do that. And then in about eighteen months

474
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 11: they developed nuclear weapons. So this is the actual trajectory

475
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 11: of what it means to simply not take Hormus back

476
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 11: to walk away. And people keep thinking there's some third option.

477
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 11: There's not a third option, and we've tried every possible

478
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 11: third option. Now, something very specific, I think, just to

479
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 11: drill into what happened in the last few weeks that

480
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 11: I think can help make some sense here for your listeners,

481
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 11: because I understand the whipsaw here because I face it

482
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 11: every day with my substack. You know, it's now almost

483
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 11: seventy thousand. We got a lot of people emailing me

484
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 11: and telling me all kinds of things, so I definitely

485
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:22,360
Speaker 11: feel this.

486
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 9: But what I just want to sort of explain here is.

487
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 11: Well, what happened with the MoU And you know you've

488
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 11: had me on I'm not surprised this thing fell apart,

489
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 11: But what exactly happened here with President Trump? Why didn't

490
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 11: he just keep going forward? Well, there's really two reasons

491
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 11: here that's very important to understand. Reason number one is

492
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 11: that the reason Trump said he wanted to do the

493
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 11: MoU was to avoid the oil inventories running down. You

494
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 11: were call he said, we're going to run out of

495
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:59,919
Speaker 11: oil in four weeks, which means he would become Herbert Hoover.

496
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 11: And then everybody said, well, okay, so that means he

497
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 11: can't avoid that. Well, no, The problem is, if you

498
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 11: look at the oil inventory curves, which I'm sure President

499
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 11: Trump is getting, we're still running down. We're basically still

500
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 11: on the Titanic heading to the iceberg. There's no we

501
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 11: haven't diverted from the iceberg. We're going to hit that

502
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:24,439
Speaker 11: iceberg somewhere around the middle of August. We don't know

503
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 11: the exact days here. That's what all these oil experts

504
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 11: are debating. Is it August seventh, August fifteenth, September one.

505
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 11: But this is not not a problem. It's we're going

506
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 11: to hit this iceberg. And so President Trump the MoU failed.

507
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 11: From his perspective.

508
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 9: JD.

509
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 11: Man said, the reason Trump told us to do this

510
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 11: was to fill the oil copperce this one did not work.

511
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 11: He's still at risk of becoming Herbert ub So this

512
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 11: is an issue Number one. He's desperate. He's not using

513
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 11: these options because they're going to win in a certainty.

514
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 11: He's desperate because he sees certain becoming Herbert Hoover and

515
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 11: he's being very desperate trying anything to avoid it. There's

516
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 11: a second reason, which is the MAGA opinion polls. The

517
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 11: mega opinion polls are very strongly in favor of regime

518
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 11: change in Iran. And President Trump needs MAGA to turn out.

519
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,239
Speaker 11: He doesn't need Democrats to turn out. They're not going

520
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 11: to vote for him. He doesn't need even the Independence.

521
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 11: What he needs is MAGA in these midterms to turn out.

522
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 11: That's what midterms are always about. It's the base. Well,

523
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 11: he's also feeding a big part of his base. There's

524
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 11: only a small part of his base. It's at Tucker

525
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 11: Carlson part of his base. So people, I think have

526
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 11: just been misreading the mid term incentives here for Trump.

527
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 11: And what you see is he is of the ship

528
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 11: on the captain of the Titanic. He's heading us here,

529
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 11: and it's because he does it. He's desperate to find

530
00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 11: a way to avoid hitting the iceberg, even if that

531
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 11: means this super highly risky set of options, which by

532
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 11: the way, I am not in favor of. I want

533
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 11: to be very very clear, I am not supporting this idea.

534
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 11: I believe all the bad things that everybody is saying.

535
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 11: My job is to be though, put my policy, my

536
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 11: preference aside, and say, setting that aside, where are we

537
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 11: actually heading. That's why the escalation trap has been on

538
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 11: the money month after month after month after month after month.

539
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 11: We're in five months now of this being on the money,

540
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 11: and your listeners will will know you guys push back

541
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 11: at me all the time, right, and I don't want

542
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 11: this to be the case. I'm just following twenty years

543
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 11: of modeling where this heads and understanding the real dilemmas

544
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 11: that are at work. Even as we're heading to a

545
00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 11: really potentially costly future.

546
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 4: Here, the part I'm trying to figure out is why

547
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,479
Speaker 4: Trump forgot about the physical limitations that he was so

548
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 4: clear about at the beginning of the MoU when he

549
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 4: was explaining to people publicly why he agreed to the

550
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 4: terms of the truce. As you said, he said multiple times,

551
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 4: if I didn't, it was going to be bedlam, I

552
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 4: think was the word he used. And multiple times in

553
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 4: this long interview that not long press convers he held,

554
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 4: he talked about Herbert Hoover.

555
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 7: You know, he has he has basically.

556
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 4: Two South Stars I guess you could call them, and

557
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 4: that's Jimmy Carter and that's Herbert Hoover and those and

558
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 4: to him, Carter involves around two that. You know, he

559
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 4: believes that the Iranian hostage rescue attempt that went south

560
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 4: is you know what really created his that that combined

561
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 4: interestingly with the oil embargo that led to gas lines

562
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 4: and high gas prices, that that created his presidency. And

563
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 4: then Herbert Hoover. Of course, nobody needs to be reminded

564
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 4: what happened to Herbert Hoover. So that that's his big concern,

565
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 4: and he was saying that because inventories are low it's

566
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 4: patrol and reserve is low like he needed to get

567
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 4: he needs He needed to reach a deal or.

568
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 7: Else it was going to be. But that nothing has

569
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 7: changed like we've had.

570
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 9: That's that's the problem here. Nothing has changed.

571
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 11: The oil inventories with the mo OU are still going down,

572
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 11: which means the mo OU is Trump's road map to

573
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 11: becoming Herbert Hoover.

574
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 9: Right, that's what he sees.

575
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 11: Now, you can disagree with him, but see, this is

576
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 11: what the media is not quite getting. Your question is

577
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 11: a very understandable one, and I understand why you're asking,

578
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 11: but it's hard to listen to what I'm saying because

579
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 11: it's so we don't want this to happen. But here's

580
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 11: the problem. The problem from Trump's perspective is the mo

581
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 11: OU was supposed to be his offering to avoid becoming

582
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 11: Herbert Hoover. But the mo OU has turned out to

583
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 11: still run the oil inventory to ground. If you look

584
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 11: at the ships passing the Straight of Hormones, they're still

585
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 11: virtually you know, they're almost zero, they're not quite zero.

586
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 11: We got a little bit of oil out, but it's

587
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 11: because Iran is shutting down the Strait of Horrmons. It's

588
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 11: not just Trump shutting down the Strait of Hormones. Iran

589
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 11: decided to be very aggressive in enforcing the MoU and

590
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 11: shut down the Strait of Hormones. It was Iran who

591
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 11: initiated the shutting down of the Strait of Horror moves,

592
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 11: not President Trump. And so why is that. It's because

593
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 11: Iran wants revenge. Iran has moved from survival to ambition

594
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 11: to revenge. And that's what you see with those tens

595
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 11: of millions pouring out. And these are all connected. This

596
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 11: is these are not separate issues. Iran is shutting down

597
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 11: the Strait of Horror moves here because Trump won't honor

598
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 11: the mo U, and Trump can't honor they can't honor

599
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 11: them without the big loss on his record. So the

600
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 11: bottom line is that what's happening is the MoU is

601
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 11: become simply a roadmap to Trump hitting the iceberg anyway,

602
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 11: And what he's trying to do now is use military

603
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 11: force to see if he can minimize how long the

604
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 11: oil the damages to the world's economy. I don't think

605
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 11: he's going to succeed. I think it's the risks are

606
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 11: too great. But this is why he's doing this. And

607
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 11: I think if we don't take this seriously, we can't

608
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 11: really try to convince him to do something else. So

609
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 11: if you really, just if we really just keep dismissing

610
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 11: why he's doing it, even though he's telling us so directly,

611
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 11: then you're never going to persuade the decision makers. And

612
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 11: I know because I've advised every West Wing, including the

613
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 11: first Trump White House from twenty one to twenty four

614
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 11: chiefs of half of the Air Force. You're not going

615
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 11: to convince them by telling them they're stupid, their ideas

616
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:09,760
Speaker 11: are bad. You've got to understand where they're coming from.

617
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 11: And if you don't, then the only thing you can

618
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 11: do is wait to vote them out of office in

619
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,799
Speaker 11: twenty twenty eight. But by twenty twenty eight, look at

620
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 11: all the damage that's going to happen. So this is

621
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 11: really the problem that we face. We're having a hard

622
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:28,840
Speaker 11: time seeing it from Trump's perspective because the oil inventories,

623
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 11: if you just show the chart, they're still going down.

624
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 11: That's what he said the problem was, and the MoU

625
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 11: didn't fix the problem.

626
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 4: Well, so I'll put the pushback I would give on

627
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 4: that would be and we could put this chart up

628
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 4: up in posts the MoU assigned June seventeenth, and I

629
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 4: think the Titanic in the Iceberg analogy is actually useful.

630
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 4: If Trump thought that he was driving like an F

631
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 4: one car and that Hormuz traffic was going to do

632
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 4: so hairpin turn and go from zero to pre m ou,

633
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,359
Speaker 4: then whether or not those you know, people that you're

634
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 4: advising want to be called idiots or not, that's an

635
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:11,840
Speaker 4: idiotic thing to think, like, it's going to take some

636
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 4: time to get it back up and as and you

637
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 4: do actually see the traffic coming through the Strait of Hormuz,

638
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 4: you know, significantly expanding, elevating, like you're seeing more and

639
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 4: more ships go through now about a week ago when

640
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 4: when the when the shooting really kicked back off, then

641
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 4: you see it collapsing again, and so the what So

642
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 4: for Trump, it's like, okay, yeah, you didn't immediately refill

643
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:42,360
Speaker 4: all your inventories and strategic petroleum reserve stockpile, but the

644
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 4: ships were coming through, So how is stopping it going

645
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:46,359
Speaker 4: to helping him?

646
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:46,920
Speaker 9: That's right.

647
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,320
Speaker 11: So there was another choice that Trump could have made,

648
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 11: and apparently he signed some of the orders to do this,

649
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,360
Speaker 11: which is when he signed the m OU he could

650
00:35:56,400 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 11: have withdrawn all fifty thousand US troops from region. He

651
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:06,959
Speaker 11: could have withdrawn all twenty two carriers and twenty destroyers

652
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 11: and cruisers from the region, and Iran would have been

653
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 11: probably quite happy with that and not shot at chips.

654
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 9: So that was the real choice that he.

655
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 7: Had, and p coordinated.

656
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,359
Speaker 4: Like the real part the problem was they went they

657
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 4: tried to go through the Omani side with their Well,

658
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 4: that's what.

659
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 11: What I'm trying to say, sir, is that is that

660
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:28,720
Speaker 11: the real fork in the road happened when he signed

661
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:32,400
Speaker 11: the MoU. When he signed the MoU, he had a choice.

662
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 11: Is he going to let Iran become the fourth center

663
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 11: of world power fully control the straight of horror moves

664
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 11: for Reel or not? And what it would mean to

665
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 11: allow the Iran to fully do the MoU, because remember

666
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 11: the MoU is all concessions to Iran. What it would

667
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 11: mean is withdraw fifty thousand combat forces from the region,

668
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 11: all our bases in Baharain, et cetera. That's what Iran wants,

669
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 11: and also all of the twenty chips. And notice that

670
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 11: was his real choice, and apparently he even signed in

671
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:08,000
Speaker 11: order to start to do some of that but then

672
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 11: he decided he couldn't accept that was too big of

673
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 11: a loss because then his magabase would not turn out

674
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 11: in the midterms. And that's the problem. There's no third way,

675
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 11: there's no compromise where we share the straight.

676
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 9: Of horror moves.

677
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 11: People keep thinking this is a business deal and we're

678
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,720
Speaker 11: just going to meet in the middle, triangulate in the middle.

679
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 11: This is great power politics. And President Trump had a choice.

680
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 11: You either let Iran get on the trajectory control or

681
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 11: moves one hundred percent become the fourth center of world power,

682
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,919
Speaker 11: or you physically take it back. There's no other way

683
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 11: around it. And in order to avoid where we are, sir,

684
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 11: what you would need to do is physically withdraw all

685
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 11: of the forces here. And some people were arguing for that.

686
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 11: Joe Kemp was arguing that effectively. Ron Paul was arguing

687
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:07,399
Speaker 11: for that effectively. So there were voices arguing too, if

688
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 11: we marched in, we could march out. And President Trump

689
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 11: just wouldn't go that far because he'd lose MEGA and

690
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 11: he needs MEGA. So this is the problem that the

691
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,399
Speaker 11: reason I think the reason people are having a hard

692
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 11: time seeing it is most of the media is not

693
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 11: really very much into MAGA. They haven't gone to Trump.

694
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:28,759
Speaker 11: I've been to Trump rallies because that's part of my book,

695
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 11: Our Own Worst Enemies. This is my field research. I've

696
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:34,720
Speaker 11: been to Butler's all weekend with these folks. These folks

697
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 11: are they're loyal to Trump only if he is a winner.

698
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,879
Speaker 11: This isn't This is another way to think about it.

699
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:46,399
Speaker 11: Is they they have faith in Trump not because he's

700
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 11: a good man. Okay, it's because he's a winner. And

701
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 11: once he lets Iran become the fourth center of world

702
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 11: power and on the road to getting nuclear weapons for real,

703
00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 11: And where's the actual option anybody's them up with to

704
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 11: stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons? All of the people

705
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 11: on from the JCPO explain Trump's getting nowhere with stopping

706
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 11: Iran getting nuclear weapons. So everybody agrees fundamentally that the

707
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:16,479
Speaker 11: only way to stop this is to let Ron keep

708
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 11: Hormuz and keep its nuclear threshold or if not over

709
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 11: the threshold status. And that's the problem for Trump. He

710
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 11: can't own that l and keep MAGA for the midterms.

711
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 4: On this trajectory, my sense is that he's going to

712
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:34,360
Speaker 4: be Hoover and lose Hormuz.

713
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 11: Yeah, that's what happens. That's how, that's how Lyndon Johnson.

714
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:42,920
Speaker 11: So what he's doing is he's trying to avoid becoming

715
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 11: Herbert Hoover. And what he'll likely become is Lyndon Johnson.

716
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 11: And there's no way for him to become Ronald Reagan.

717
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:53,320
Speaker 11: He's looking for a way for him to become Ronald Reagan.

718
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,279
Speaker 11: Pull a rabbit out of the hat. This is going

719
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:59,880
Speaker 11: to somehow, you know, like with the air traffic control strike.

720
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 11: You know, with Ronald Reagan, suddenly everybody will get oh

721
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 11: my god, it was the most brilliant thing. But the

722
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:08,880
Speaker 11: reason this happens. And I study preventive wars for a

723
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 11: living for thirty years, so I'm not just generally studying

724
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:20,240
Speaker 11: international relations. Preventive wars happen because the attackers see certain

725
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 11: loss and then they take highly risky actions to avoid

726
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 11: a certain loss. So think of it as they see

727
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 11: one hundred percent loss and now they take a risk

728
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 11: it's only eighty percent. And that's what we're seeing here.

729
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 11: In all the commentary, everybody's saying this is almost surely

730
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 11: going to fail. Well for President Trump, that's right, But

731
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 11: to not do it is an even worse outcome for

732
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 11: him and his presidency. If the world suffers, that's secondary

733
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:49,240
Speaker 11: for Trump.

734
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:54,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, well we're all screwed. Professor Paipe, thanks as always.

735
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 7: For the rent.

736
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:56,959
Speaker 9: I wish I had better news.

737
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 4: Maybe next week we're learning a bit more about Joan

738
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 4: Sebastian Guerrero, who is the Colombian man killed by ice

739
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 4: in in Maine and one of the one of the

740
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 4: witnesses who was there for this execution on this on

741
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 4: the Streets of Maine described how Guerrero said before he

742
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 4: died that he had tried to stop. I want to

743
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 4: play a little bit of his of his eyewitness testimony

744
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 4: before we get to Wanda vid Rojas to talk a

745
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:31,800
Speaker 4: little bit about what what more we have learned about

746
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:36,720
Speaker 4: this victim, as well as another man who died after

747
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 4: in interaction with ice down in Florida, followed by President

748
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 4: Trump who is now saying that he wants to reverse

749
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 4: the ICE decision to stop traffic stops and get back

750
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 4: to doing it.

751
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:49,399
Speaker 7: But let's roll see two here.

752
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:51,280
Speaker 5: I didn't witness the shooting.

753
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:56,279
Speaker 13: I witnessed the aftermaths and the car coming down and

754
00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:59,839
Speaker 13: then being hit again by the Ice suv.

755
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 9: And the.

756
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 5: Victim being moved out.

757
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:10,359
Speaker 13: Taken out of the vehicle and I I heard him

758
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 13: say I tried to stop Ice agent and got out,

759
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:16,839
Speaker 13: tried to open the door and had a difficult time it.

760
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 1: Eventually opened it and pulled the guy out. His face

761
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:21,800
Speaker 1: was bloody, his head was bloody.

762
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 9: I know that.

763
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 13: He was still cognizant because they told him to calm

764
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 13: him down. I feel somebody needs to know what's what

765
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:37,919
Speaker 13: a bystander saw, not what Ice tells you. It's too

766
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,840
Speaker 13: often I says things that are just are not true,

767
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 13: and at least from this is what I saw.

768
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 5: Now, whether.

769
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,839
Speaker 13: Their version is different, that's up to them.

770
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 4: Joan Sebastian was killed in front of his daughter, and

771
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 4: we're trying to learn.

772
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 7: As much as we can about him.

773
00:42:56,960 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 4: We understand that, according to the Administration, he came to

774
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 4: the United States in twenty twenty three. It's unclear yet

775
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 4: if he was pursuing an asylum claim. The reports are

776
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:11,920
Speaker 4: that he had a work permit as well as a

777
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 4: Social Security card. That that that doesn't tell you a

778
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 4: whole lot about his immigration status. Wanda vid Rojas is

779
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:23,760
Speaker 4: joining us now to talk a little bit more about this. Wandavid,

780
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 4: thanks for being here, Thanks for having me on Ryan,

781
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 4: So let's put up see one again. This was one

782
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:33,399
Speaker 4: of his one of his social media posts where he says,

783
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:35,280
Speaker 4: frem porta Patria.

784
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:38,440
Speaker 7: So this kind gives us a little bit of.

785
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 4: An indication of where he fits kind of in the

786
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:43,320
Speaker 4: Colombian political spectrum.

787
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:45,800
Speaker 7: Walk us through what we can what we can glean

788
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 7: from that.

789
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 14: Yeah, it's especially tragic. I mean, I don't want to

790
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 14: you know, it's it's ironic, but you know, I don't

791
00:43:57,120 --> 00:43:58,359
Speaker 14: really want to make too much.

792
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 7: Light about this. This guy.

793
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:02,520
Speaker 14: Yeah, he was apparently executed in front of his three

794
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:06,879
Speaker 14: year old daughter. His wife is still grieving, and it's

795
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:08,799
Speaker 14: one of the most horrific shooting. Thank god, there's really

796
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:11,440
Speaker 14: not a whole lot of video about it, because otherwise

797
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 14: I think there would be a lot more outrage. But

798
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:22,239
Speaker 14: this guy apparently was a supporter of Colombia's current president Electprietor,

799
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 14: who's like a Farr literal Miami Neocon is a dual

800
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 14: citizen of the US and lived for ten years here

801
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 14: in Miami before becoming president. So and yeah, the the

802
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 14: Colombia's current president elect. Like, yeah, he says he's a

803
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:42,320
Speaker 14: registered he said during the campaign he just got elected

804
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 14: that he's a registered Republican, that he voted for President Trump,

805
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 14: and that he wants to let Trump bomb Columbia. So

806
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 14: that's to give people an idea. So and here's an

807
00:44:56,560 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 14: interesting set. Actually, eighty percent of cologn Mbians in the

808
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 14: US that voted in the past election voted for de

809
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 14: la Spiega. So a lot of Columbia's immigrant population here

810
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:11,439
Speaker 14: in the US is just very right wing.

811
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:13,400
Speaker 7: So it's it's especially tragic.

812
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 14: A friend of mine pointed out, it's like, hey, this

813
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:19,279
Speaker 14: guy very conceivably could have ended up supporting Trump right right.

814
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 4: Meanwhile, down in Miami, I want to put up C

815
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:25,400
Speaker 4: three here, there was an inter interaction at a gas

816
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 4: station between Ice and.

817
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 7: What appeared to be some Mexican migrant labors.

818
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:35,719
Speaker 4: Man ran from there when it was immediately then hit

819
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 4: by a truck in Saint Augustine and and died on

820
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 4: the scene. This is obviously a different scenario than being

821
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 4: shot as we saw in Houston and then in Maine.

822
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 7: But in reaction to.

823
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 4: The two and then you know, three deaths Ice related

824
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 4: deaths within within a week. Ice interestingly said that they

825
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:04,840
Speaker 4: were going to stop the practice of these traffic stops Ice.

826
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 4: You know, most police forces in general are trained not

827
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 4: to put themselves in front of moving vehicles. And that

828
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:17,879
Speaker 4: was something that all police, that all police understood kind

829
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:21,800
Speaker 4: of before Minnesota. But that's something also the public overall

830
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 4: understood after Minnesota, because it's just it's just common sense.

831
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:30,239
Speaker 4: You're you are in fact, the law as it as

832
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 4: it's written, is that if you put yourself in front

833
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 4: of the car recklessly, that does not then produce the

834
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:42,880
Speaker 4: justification to shoot the person. Like if if you're the

835
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 4: one that creates the danger for yourself, you can't then

836
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 4: resolve the danger that you created by killing somebody like

837
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 4: that is that is that is how police are trained,

838
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 4: and that is that is the law, and it's also

839
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:57,439
Speaker 4: just plain common sense. And so ICE said, they're they're

840
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 4: going to pause these these traffic stops. We're going to

841
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 4: put up C six. Which is Trump's response to this,

842
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 4: and get your reaction to it. Trump says, the men

843
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 4: and women of ICE are doing a great job.

844
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 7: One that has to be done.

845
00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 4: Crime is way down in America in many cases with

846
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 4: numbers that haven't been seen in decades. The open border

847
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 4: policy of Sleepy Joe Biden allowed twenty five million to

848
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 4: people to pour into our country unchecked and unvetted. Many

849
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:26,759
Speaker 4: were criminals, and we have to get them out. In

850
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 4: order to do this, we must be strong, tough, and smart,

851
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:31,320
Speaker 4: and we cannot give up one of ICE's most important

852
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:34,360
Speaker 4: and effective crime fighting tools, the traffic stop. Once we

853
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 4: are playing right into the criminals hands. The radical left

854
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:40,840
Speaker 4: Democrats would like to see this done, but it won't

855
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:41,840
Speaker 4: happen on my watch.

856
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:42,160
Speaker 7: Ice.

857
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 4: Be judicious, fair and smart, and go back and do

858
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:49,320
Speaker 4: your very important job. Keep those crime state records coming,

859
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:52,800
Speaker 4: crime stat records coming. Remember, you are loved and respected

860
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:55,200
Speaker 4: in America. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

861
00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:55,840
Speaker 4: President Donald J.

862
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 7: Trump, so want de vive.

863
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 4: That feels like it was that came after a Steven

864
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 4: Miller phone call, and the reference to the stats, I

865
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 4: feel like is the giveaway there. Miller has a quota

866
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:11,440
Speaker 4: that he is kind of insisting that the federal government

867
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 4: hit and in order to hit that, you hit, you know,

868
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:18,719
Speaker 4: you hit courthouses, you hit immigration facilities where people are

869
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 4: you going to get fingerprinted otherwise following law? Or you

870
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 4: just start pulling everybody over who looks like they might

871
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:26,880
Speaker 4: be an immigrant and check their papers. What's what's your

872
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 4: What was your reaction to ICE announcing that they were

873
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 4: going to pause it and now Trump telling them no,

874
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:32,600
Speaker 4: get back on it.

875
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 14: Yeah, like you said, there's clearly some inter administration wrangling

876
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 14: over this stuff, most likely due to Steven Miller. I mean, look,

877
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:45,040
Speaker 14: I'm going to be completely honest. I have a very

878
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:49,799
Speaker 14: similar perspective to Sager about this stuff. You know, I

879
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 14: think that the previous administration had way too lacks of

880
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 14: a policy basically just like letting anyone come here and

881
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:57,359
Speaker 14: you know, stay here for years on end while they're

882
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:01,880
Speaker 14: asilum claim was adjudicated. Most of these asylum claims. Frankly,

883
00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 14: I think we're fraudulent. At the same time, that doesn't

884
00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 14: mean you should just go around killing people who came

885
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:11,280
Speaker 14: here regularly, whether they have an asylum claim. They're legally

886
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 14: either here legally or illegally. They're human beings Jesus, And

887
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 14: all this does is just discredit your own cause of

888
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 14: mass deportations. I mean, you know, we can debate about

889
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:28,279
Speaker 14: exactly what level of deportations would be just, but I mean, yeah,

890
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:30,799
Speaker 14: it's just all these kinds of hardline tactics. You know,

891
00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:35,680
Speaker 14: there's been fifty people killed in iced attention. There's been

892
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:39,719
Speaker 14: four people shot I think at these traffic stops since

893
00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 14: the start of the year. Obviously Renee Goods was the

894
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:49,960
Speaker 14: most famous case. So I mean, yeah, there's really nothing

895
00:49:50,000 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 14: good that I can say. There's so many better ways

896
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:54,600
Speaker 14: that this could be done. I mean, starting by the

897
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 14: fact that really there's just been no interests at all

898
00:49:58,600 --> 00:50:02,759
Speaker 14: in punishing employers of illegal labor. And if you look

899
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 14: at corporate prosecutions of employers of illegal immigrants, they're at

900
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 14: all time lows, and they have been for multiple administrations.

901
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 14: Now all of the enforcement is on the workers, the

902
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 14: people who were here irregularly, and that obviously it has

903
00:50:18,680 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 14: costs not to mention the fact, like you know that

904
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 14: case in Florida, my hometown of Coral Springs of Florida

905
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 14: and Broward County ice agents like surrounded the home of

906
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:32,719
Speaker 14: this Peruvian man who, yeah, I was here illegally or

907
00:50:32,719 --> 00:50:36,719
Speaker 14: had had like an asylum claim. They surrounded his entire

908
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 14: home with like rifles, and it's like, guys, not only

909
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:45,959
Speaker 14: is this not necessary, it's disruptive to American citizens. So obviously, yeah,

910
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 14: like we saw in Minnesota, this has costs for citizens

911
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 14: as well, and.

912
00:50:50,160 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 4: AOC was asked about this at the capital before Trump

913
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:57,520
Speaker 4: announced that he was going to push them to rescind

914
00:50:57,560 --> 00:50:58,800
Speaker 4: their rescinding of the policy.

915
00:50:58,840 --> 00:50:59,560
Speaker 7: Let's listen to C.

916
00:50:59,760 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 15: Five.

917
00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 6: She's bragging about the fact that they had additional body

918
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:06,879
Speaker 6: cameras in the Homeland security funding and they had more

919
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 6: safeguards than the suspector generals.

920
00:51:08,600 --> 00:51:10,399
Speaker 5: Do you think that that was I mean, was.

921
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:16,080
Speaker 15: That Senator Collins wrote the blank check to allow these

922
00:51:16,120 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 15: officers to conduct themselves in the way that they have

923
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 15: in Maine in the first place. And she's the one

924
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,880
Speaker 15: who's poured resources into it. And just because now that

925
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:29,760
Speaker 15: there's live footage of the atrocities that she has enabled

926
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 15: doesn't make it better than preventing them from happening in

927
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:34,279
Speaker 15: the first place.

928
00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:37,960
Speaker 4: Right, So that's a going after Susan Collins for expressing

929
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:41,680
Speaker 4: concern about the killing after having given all the weapons

930
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:44,799
Speaker 4: for it to happen. And then here's four with her

931
00:51:45,120 --> 00:51:47,040
Speaker 4: h talking about Trump's policy.

932
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 14: What do you think of DHS suspending vehicular stops in

933
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 14: the aftermath of Houston and Maine.

934
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 15: I mean, I think they shouldn't be a lot of

935
00:51:56,160 --> 00:51:58,040
Speaker 15: the stuff that they're doing shouldn't even be allowed in

936
00:51:58,080 --> 00:52:03,319
Speaker 15: the first place, and I think they're trying to get

937
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:06,600
Speaker 15: ahead of the fact that people should realize that what

938
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:11,919
Speaker 15: they are doing shouldn't be allowed. And so I think

939
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:17,360
Speaker 15: that you know, they they should be they should be

940
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:21,920
Speaker 15: facing consequences for killing innocent people in the stream, and

941
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:24,799
Speaker 15: they're just trying to escape from those consequences. While I'm

942
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:26,880
Speaker 15: glad that they are temporarily, I assume.

943
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:29,479
Speaker 7: Yeah, And so one devid to your point.

944
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 4: I know that you know, you and Soccer kind of

945
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 4: line up on a lot of elements of this immigration policy.

946
00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:36,920
Speaker 4: But as I've been arguing, if they can't do it

947
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:42,239
Speaker 4: in a way that is civil without killing people, they're

948
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:44,480
Speaker 4: going to lose the kind of public support for the

949
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:50,200
Speaker 4: thing that you and Sager want done. If you were

950
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:54,480
Speaker 4: advising them on how to pursue the policy, what would

951
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:56,200
Speaker 4: you tell them.

952
00:52:56,560 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 14: Yeah, it's like I said before, I mean, there's just

953
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 14: no enforcement at all on the employer's side. And if

954
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:05,560
Speaker 14: you if you had like a national regime of be verify,

955
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:09,360
Speaker 14: a lot of this problem would solve itself. And look, personally,

956
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:12,440
Speaker 14: I would be for some kind of amnesty for me.

957
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:15,879
Speaker 14: It would be something like for people who have been

958
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:19,160
Speaker 14: here like at least ten years or more, and then

959
00:53:19,200 --> 00:53:21,360
Speaker 14: you know, other people would say, oh, no, it should

960
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 14: be less or whatever. But yeah, if you like spent

961
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 14: a lifetime here and have abided by the law for

962
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,720
Speaker 14: me personally, and that a lot of Republicans will disagree

963
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:33,400
Speaker 14: with this, Yeah, I think, you know, this would go

964
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:36,400
Speaker 14: a long way towards solving the problem if a lot

965
00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:39,839
Speaker 14: of people were given a path to citizenship. And there's

966
00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:42,359
Speaker 14: also debates about like you know, like when we talk

967
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:46,520
Speaker 14: about amnesty, people think that's like immediate citizenship for x

968
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 14: amount of people. Not necessarily it tends to be like

969
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:51,880
Speaker 14: a gradual process that people have to pay back and

970
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:54,759
Speaker 14: the taxes that the taxes that they would theoretically owe,

971
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:56,520
Speaker 14: and then they would get like a work permit and

972
00:53:56,560 --> 00:54:00,319
Speaker 14: then eventually the residency and citizenship something like that. I

973
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:03,359
Speaker 14: could go along with that if it's paired with an

974
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 14: aggressive national regime of everify, because if you implement those

975
00:54:08,600 --> 00:54:10,880
Speaker 14: two things in tandem, then yeah, you wouldn't need to

976
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:14,080
Speaker 14: have this kind of draconian enforcement all the time. Yeah,

977
00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:16,520
Speaker 14: But to your point, what they're doing right now, it's

978
00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 14: just discrediting their own cause and it's enabling radical opponents

979
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 14: on the other side. And this is what I'll say

980
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:26,919
Speaker 14: to Democrats. I mean, please, for the love of God,

981
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:29,680
Speaker 14: we cannot go back to the previous policy.

982
00:54:29,760 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 7: I don't mean I don't say.

983
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:34,400
Speaker 14: That because you know I love Republicans or hate immigrants

984
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:36,440
Speaker 14: or anything like that. On the contrary, if we go

985
00:54:36,520 --> 00:54:38,040
Speaker 14: back to what we had before, we're just going to

986
00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 14: get another nativist administration in the future. So a lot

987
00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:48,400
Speaker 14: of this discourse around like abolishing ICE voters, in my opinion,

988
00:54:48,719 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 14: like you see that kind of stuff. When you know

989
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:53,920
Speaker 14: I say this myself included, interpret that as we're going

990
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 14: to abolish ICE and then there's just going to be

991
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 14: no more immigration enforcement. If you really want to do that,

992
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:01,279
Speaker 14: you need to make clear that, Look, we'll get rid

993
00:55:01,320 --> 00:55:03,400
Speaker 14: of ICE, but there will still be enforcement. And I

994
00:55:03,440 --> 00:55:08,799
Speaker 14: agree criminals should be prioritized, but enforcement shouldn't just be

995
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:12,400
Speaker 14: against criminals. I mean, like I said that, the truth is,

996
00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:15,080
Speaker 14: most of these asylum claims are fraudulent, and if you

997
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:19,360
Speaker 14: come here defraud the asylum system intending just to work,

998
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:23,279
Speaker 14: eventually you should be removed. I'll site this is the

999
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:26,360
Speaker 14: last thing I'll say. Yeah, I'll cite a former congressman

1000
00:55:26,480 --> 00:55:28,960
Speaker 14: Barbara Jordan. She said, for the system would be credible,

1001
00:55:29,480 --> 00:55:31,680
Speaker 14: people have to be deported at the end of the process.

1002
00:55:31,719 --> 00:55:32,800
Speaker 7: This is just common sense.

1003
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1004
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 4: I do think that Democrats, a large swath of them,

1005
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:42,279
Speaker 4: have abandoned or moved away from defending the Biden administration's

1006
00:55:42,320 --> 00:55:45,160
Speaker 4: border policy and are have kind of given up and say,

1007
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:49,280
Speaker 4: you know what, Okay, we can't defend not having a border. Fine,

1008
00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:52,239
Speaker 4: We're fine, We'll do a border, but we need to

1009
00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 4: abolish ICE, which is this rogue agency that's doing you know,

1010
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:01,839
Speaker 4: you know, mascale internal moves at home depots and seven

1011
00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:04,319
Speaker 4: elevens and traffic stops that lead to them, you know,

1012
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:09,040
Speaker 4: shooting and killing people in the streets, including Joan Joan's imatchin,

1013
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:12,080
Speaker 4: who was not a target at all, like this was

1014
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:13,799
Speaker 4: this appears to be just a guy who was in

1015
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:17,799
Speaker 4: the wrong place at the wrong time, or I mean,

1016
00:56:18,160 --> 00:56:20,520
Speaker 4: not necessarily that it was the Ice. ICE I'd say

1017
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:23,160
Speaker 4: was the wrong place at the wrong time. But in

1018
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:25,800
Speaker 4: any event, he's the one that didn't survive the encounter.

1019
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:30,280
Speaker 4: But I take your point that the the the public

1020
00:56:31,000 --> 00:56:34,359
Speaker 4: might be might be conflating some of that. So we'll

1021
00:56:34,560 --> 00:56:37,319
Speaker 4: we'll see how they kind of navigate that as they're

1022
00:56:37,440 --> 00:56:40,719
Speaker 4: as they're kind of shaping what their their their immigration

1023
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 4: policy is. That doesn't produce another nativist backlash in the future.

1024
00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:48,080
Speaker 4: But wandavide, thanks as always for for being here. Where

1025
00:56:48,120 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 4: can people find your stuff?

1026
00:56:50,120 --> 00:56:50,359
Speaker 11: Uh?

1027
00:56:50,400 --> 00:56:52,840
Speaker 14: Follow me on X and I have a sub stack.

1028
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:56,680
Speaker 14: It's called a social democracy with a populist characteristics. Also

1029
00:56:56,719 --> 00:56:59,160
Speaker 14: a column to said unheard, So check me out I unheard.

1030
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:00,879
Speaker 7: Excellent. Well, thanks for being here.