WEBVTT - Best Bets For NFL Week 8: Top Picks and Predictions (Ep. 564) 0:00:01.200 --> 0:00:03.360 Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:05.640 your bets and it's me Joey P joe Pisapia and 0:00:05.680 --> 0:00:08.360 this is VP NFL. It's time to look at to 0:00:08.400 --> 0:00:10.120 the best bets for a week eight in the NFL. 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.200 Everybody's playing. I don't know why, Why can't we space 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:14.960 some body weeks out a little bit better than they 0:00:15.000 --> 0:00:16.959 have to have everybody off on buys in two weeks. 0:00:16.960 --> 0:00:18.560 It makes no sense to me, but it doesn't matter. 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:20.320 It's the NFL. So we're gonna bet as much as 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:22.480 we possibly can today because they're giving us a lot 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:25.320 of games to bet on, including some huge spreads and 0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:30.040 talking about two huge personalities here, Terrell Furman Andrew Erickson, 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:32.320 the Undertaker, here with us to make sure that we 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:34.760 get the best foot forward for a week eight in 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:39.160 the NFL. Terrell, you're going off on a little vacation here. 0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:41.200 Are you gonna be able to monitor all your stuff 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:44.400 as you go international worldwide this weekend? My friend? 0:00:44.680 --> 0:00:47.520 Oh yeah, absolutely, I have no worries that I'm gonna 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:50.839 be one hundred percent dialed into the slate and enjoying 0:00:50.880 --> 0:00:54.280 a little pleasure as well. So nice time for a vacation. 0:00:54.440 --> 0:00:56.840 But it doesn't matter. We're coming off a winning week. 0:00:56.920 --> 0:00:58.520 I I'm ready to make it suit. 0:00:58.800 --> 0:01:01.200 Terrell's got all those vpms going on, so nobody can 0:01:01.240 --> 0:01:03.240 track him. Nobody knows where he is, what he's doing. 0:01:03.920 --> 0:01:07.560 Ericson the Belichick Bowls this weekend, Jet's Patriots. Howre you 0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:09.000 feeling about this one? Do you think we got a 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:09.800 puncher's chance? 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:12.440 I don't know. I haven't broke down that game yet. 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:15.080 So check out the Betting Pros primer later in the 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:16.120 week from my thoughts. 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:18.640 There you go Bettingpros dot com. That's where you get it. 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:20.119 And while you're at it, you might as well download 0:01:20.120 --> 0:01:22.600 the VP app if you haven't already on iOS on 0:01:22.680 --> 0:01:25.880 Android again, use the tools here. Sink your sportsbooks for free, 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:29.119 get into it, have some fun, create betting systems, take 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:30.920 a look at the trends you can track all your 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:34.320 picks to. And we're doing a special right now. FP 0:01:34.520 --> 0:01:36.160 free is the code, So if you use the promo 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:39.000 code FP free, you get thirty three days of the 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:43.320 Betting Pros Premium tools. Now that's incredible, especially when you 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:45.400 consider we are in the height of sports betting season 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:48.920 October maybe It doesn't get better than this, NFL, CFB, 0:01:49.320 --> 0:01:52.640 Major League Baseball, NHL, NBA. We got everything going at 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:54.680 one time, so make sure you get going to again. 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:56.920 The code is FP free, download the VP app today 0:01:57.360 --> 0:01:59.800 and start getting smarter, not harder. Gentlemen, Let's kick things 0:01:59.840 --> 0:02:02.640 off field. Start with you, Terrell. The Cleveland Browns are 0:02:02.640 --> 0:02:05.240 gonna start Jamis Winston, Sean Watson. We don't have to 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:08.560 watch him anymore, So there we go. So what does 0:02:08.600 --> 0:02:10.959 this mean here for this enormous spread? Because nine and 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:12.880 a half is a big number. Andrew and I talked 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:15.600 about it with Well, I would say not a lot 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:18.079 of ease on Monday Show. So where are we at 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:18.720 with it now? 0:02:19.520 --> 0:02:22.040 Yeah? I mean I feel good about it. We seen 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:24.720 this Ravens team over the course of this season. They 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:27.040 have let teams back into games at into games and 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:31.280 have the teams always covered the spread? No, not always, 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:34.080 but they've definitely been reasonable. And this is a large 0:02:34.160 --> 0:02:36.320 number for them to try to overcome. And here we 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:39.600 have a Browns team that's reinvigorated without just Deshaun Watson. 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:42.560 The fans are the fans cheered, The fans cheered, and 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:47.240 Jameis Winston went on an epic rant of all time. Afterwards, 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:49.239 you're telling me that you don't want to back a 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:52.440 quarterback like that that's gonna come in and reinvigorate an offense. 0:02:52.840 --> 0:02:55.440 And the thing that I think Jameis Winston has going 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:57.760 for him that Deshaun Watson didn't have going for him 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:00.280 is that while Jameis Winston might not make the right 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:02.040 read all the time, at least he gets the ball 0:03:02.080 --> 0:03:04.480 out quick. He's gonna throw the ball out, He's not 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:07.640 gonna hold it extra long and make that Ravens defense 0:03:07.680 --> 0:03:10.119 look better. We see the Ravens this season, you can 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:13.000 get over on them in the passing game. We'll see 0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:16.280 about Marlon Humphrey this week. But yeah, I'm all over 0:03:16.320 --> 0:03:18.960 the Browns. I think this is a sleepy spot where 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:21.080 the Ravens maybe get a win, but this is a 0:03:21.080 --> 0:03:22.160 three point football game. 0:03:22.639 --> 0:03:26.480 Ericson our early lean was the Browns and what we 0:03:26.480 --> 0:03:28.600 were talking about this game on Monday together. The take 0:03:28.639 --> 0:03:31.400 that I had was, if inded, we do get Winston 0:03:31.560 --> 0:03:34.760 named the quarterback garbage time Jamis is one of the 0:03:34.760 --> 0:03:37.320 things that can absolutely ruin your day or make your day, 0:03:37.320 --> 0:03:39.400 depending on what side of that you're on, and This 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:41.760 feels like that perfect insigns where we could be in 0:03:41.800 --> 0:03:44.200 that territory. So you've had a couple of days to 0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:46.880 maridate in it. Where have we landed here on the 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:50.080 Cleveland Browns Ravens nine getting nine and a half in 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:50.920 some other markets. 0:03:50.920 --> 0:03:53.440 Well, similar to I'm always firing off on bets, Jameis 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:55.480 wins is not going to stop firing in this game. 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:58.240 Whether they're down seventeen to twenty one, twenty four, this 0:03:58.320 --> 0:04:02.120 bet will never be dead until the final The clock 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:04.560 had zero zero, zero zero basically. So I feel like 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:07.000 you're gonna be live the entire time because with the 0:04:07.040 --> 0:04:09.440 Browns with Jamis Winston, they're not gonna give up. They're 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:12.240 gonna play inspired football in any way they can. They 0:04:12.240 --> 0:04:14.160 want to get Nick Chubb as many touchdowns as that 0:04:14.200 --> 0:04:16.640 guy can handle. And I think Winston's gonna be able 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:18.359 to improve the offense. I think it's just gonna be 0:04:18.360 --> 0:04:21.599 better than Deshaun Watson. So you have a divisional matchup 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:24.440 at home. We've already seen the Ravens play down to 0:04:24.440 --> 0:04:27.080 their competition back in Week two. Who they play Las 0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:29.480 Vegas Raiders? A team that, oh, what's this team? We 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:31.719 don't really care and they end up losing that game. 0:04:31.880 --> 0:04:31.960 Right. 0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:33.760 They let Dallas back into the game as well when 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:36.400 they blew them out in the first half. So I 0:04:36.440 --> 0:04:39.280 think Cleveland can definitely keep this way closer than the 0:04:39.360 --> 0:04:41.400 nine and a half point spread suggests. You look at 0:04:41.400 --> 0:04:43.800 Cleveland playing at home eight and four in the money 0:04:43.839 --> 0:04:45.680 line at home in the last twelve home games, like 0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:48.800 they're a good team when they play in Cleveland. You 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:52.120 have the Ravens big win on Monday night, short week, right, 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:55.679 So I just think that the Browns are the play 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:58.719 here again, basically a double digit home underdog. 0:04:59.040 --> 0:04:59.560 The process. 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:01.640 People, this is just a good bet to make on 0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:03.680 the Cleveland Browns plus nine and a half. You look 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:06.120 at Jameis Winston a ten point spread and his last 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:08.919 nine starts, he'd be seven to two against the spread 0:05:08.920 --> 0:05:10.880 and his last nine starts as a starter, So I 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:12.039 love the Browns as well. 0:05:13.120 --> 0:05:15.000 All right, trail back to one of your picks here. Now, 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:18.760 the Eagles went in and beat your giants, thrilled to 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:21.760 a bloody pulp for a couple hours there, So a 0:05:21.960 --> 0:05:24.320 swit for Saquon Parkley as expected, as you know, no 0:05:24.360 --> 0:05:27.000 one's surprised there. Hopefully you had all those Saquon overs. 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:29.160 As we talked about all last week. That was the 0:05:29.160 --> 0:05:30.920 theme of last week. Just bet the overs. I wish 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:32.040 I got the two touchdowns. 0:05:32.279 --> 0:05:34.640 You could have took all his overs for a beautiful 0:05:34.680 --> 0:05:36.160 price of minus two hundred. 0:05:36.839 --> 0:05:39.480 Yeah. No, no, you put some things together with the touchdown. 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:41.480 You have some plus of money in there. That's what 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:43.800 I did. I just also got a little greedy and 0:05:43.839 --> 0:05:45.839 I went for the two touchdown in the first touchdown 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:48.680 and also but those didn't quite you know, all hit 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:51.800 where I wanted to. So let's talk about Bengals Eagles 0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:54.680 this week. The Bengals starting to pull themselves out of 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:57.799 their doldrums a little bit here. But now again we're 0:05:57.839 --> 0:06:00.040 in a situation where we're facing a better opponent with 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:02.960 the Philadelphia Eagles seeming to be back on track a bit. 0:06:03.240 --> 0:06:05.600 Health is there for the wide receivers. So the numbers 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:09.320 forty eight row, considering these two offenses and the weapons 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:11.000 they have, is this an over? 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:14.480 Yeah? I think this is a clear over here. It's 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:16.479 a little short. I think it's just the fact that 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:19.520 neither one of these defenses have been all that inspiring, 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:22.400 and anytime they've had a really good defensive effort. It 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:24.760 was against the New York Giants, so like, I can't 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:27.559 take that into account. They got the Giants have scored 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:31.560 ten points total between those two teams. No, so that's 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:34.400 not gonna be that's the outlier. I think. Now you 0:06:34.440 --> 0:06:36.760 look at dvoaights, both of these two teams towards the 0:06:36.760 --> 0:06:40.120 bottom of league in terms of past DVOA. Joe Burrow 0:06:40.160 --> 0:06:43.560 we know is stat Paddig. He's absolutely going out there 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:46.120 on a tier. And I think you can run on 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:48.640 his Philadelphia Eagles defense. I think if you commit to 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:51.159 the run, you can absolutely get you some lanes. And 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:53.240 I think the same thing for the Cincinnati Bengals, which 0:06:53.279 --> 0:06:57.760 is gonna increase more drives, more offense, more touchdowns. I 0:06:57.760 --> 0:06:59.760 think that they're gonna nickel and dime down a field 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:02.599 and just pick these two defenses apart. So yeah, both 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:05.200 of these two teams feel like they're a little bit desperate. 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:07.320 Even though the Philadelphia Eagles are foreign too, I feel 0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:10.080 a little bit of desperation there to put something really 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:12.640 really good on tape. So I think a good offensive 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:14.720 showing is good for both of these two teams. I 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:17.640 love the over forty eight here faint and two bad defenses. 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:21.400 All right, Andrew, let's talk about the Jaguars and the 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:22.280 green Bay Packers. 0:07:22.320 --> 0:07:22.440 Now. 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:25.080 The Jags finally get out of London after two weeks 0:07:25.120 --> 0:07:27.480 being overseas. The last time we saw them, they put 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:30.280 up a big number against the Patriots. Jordan Love loves 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:33.160 to throw the football around, certainly, so they have a 0:07:33.240 --> 0:07:35.920 ton of weapons on their side as well to push totals. 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:38.120 But the numbers already high at fifty. So where do 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:38.840 you stand with that? 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:42.480 I'm taking the under The undertaker strikes again here Jacksonville, 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:45.640 Green Bay. I just think this number is massive for 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:49.960 I feel like it's confidence in the Jaguars offense. Oh well, 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:53.040 they're back, We're here. We're firing at all cylinders because 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:55.880 we beat the Patriots in London. I don't think that's 0:07:55.920 --> 0:07:58.680 the case green Bay. Their defense has showed up in 0:07:58.720 --> 0:08:02.440 three straight games as accompanied by three straight unders for 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:04.920 the Green Bay Packers. And when you look at how 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:08.360 bad this Jaguars defense is overall, well, they play a 0:08:08.400 --> 0:08:11.679 lot of man coverage and this year Jordan Love hasn't 0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:15.080 been great against man coverage, thirty ninth the passer rating, 0:08:15.320 --> 0:08:18.440 forty fifth yards per attempt thirty seventh in castable target rate. 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:20.480 So I know it's easy to look at the Jaguars 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:22.880 defense think, oh my god, the Packers here are going 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:26.560 to absolutely shred. Playing on the road where the Packers 0:08:26.640 --> 0:08:30.480 haven't always showed up necessarily against a bottom dwelling team. 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:31.800 I think you get. 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:34.840 Underwelling performance from green Bay here, and I think that 0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:36.679 affects the total in this game. I just think it's 0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:39.360 too large at fifty points based on the fact that 0:08:39.440 --> 0:08:41.719 the Packer's defense is playing much better the last couple 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:45.160 of weeks against better teams offensively than the Jacksonville Jaguars. 0:08:45.160 --> 0:08:48.040 So I'm not going to buy into one spiked week 0:08:48.040 --> 0:08:50.439 of production from Jacksonville at a couple weeks ago against 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:53.600 the Colts, where I think green Bay's defenses is solid 0:08:53.600 --> 0:08:54.960 and underrated, So I'm gonna take the under. 0:08:55.559 --> 0:08:57.839 Andrew Erickson refuses to live in the past, folks. He 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:00.079 is only living in the present. And if you're to 0:09:00.160 --> 0:09:01.720 live in the present too, the best place to do 0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:03.959 that is on our discord fancypros dot com slash chat, 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:07.000 and of course Bettingpros dot com slash chat. That's the 0:09:07.040 --> 0:09:09.400 place to go to talk all the betting you want, 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:11.720 you could join them both. They're they're super fun and 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:14.200 free to join. Betting Pros dot com is where you 0:09:14.200 --> 0:09:16.040 can get all the Matt Paroult picks, you can get 0:09:16.040 --> 0:09:19.360 all the interaction, but the other djens betting everything. You 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:23.000 can imagine getting fun conversations, maybe get some insight too, 0:09:23.360 --> 0:09:25.160 especially if you're new to the betting games. So again, 0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:28.480 go to Betting pros dot com slash chat. That's the 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:31.000 place to go to join our discord today, and we're 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:32.680 gonna have some fun stuff going on there too, just 0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:34.960 like on the FP side of things. Andrew and I 0:09:34.960 --> 0:09:36.520 in a couple weeks might be doing some stuff over 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:39.320 there on the discord too, some shows maybe too for 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:41.400 you to get in, ask us questions and talk about 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:43.040 some of the games along with us. So now at 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:45.320 the time to get in again Betting pros dot com 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:48.720 slash Chat. Let's get back to you here, Terrell. We 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:52.480 don't have quite clarity as of today's news. Jane Daniels 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:55.560 was not gonna be practicing. The Bears are coming off 0:09:55.600 --> 0:09:58.080 of Bye Bears are coming off a big victory here. 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:00.720 Caleb Williams on an upwards for Jet victory, The health 0:10:00.760 --> 0:10:02.680 of the Bears also pretty good except for the defense. 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:05.160 There are some guys banged up on that side. So 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:07.600 the number is forty four for this one. We could 0:10:07.600 --> 0:10:11.640 get Mariota, we'll see what happens. But clearly the Panthers 0:10:11.640 --> 0:10:14.040 and the Bears two different football teams here for the Commanders. 0:10:14.080 --> 0:10:17.319 So Commanders in kind of in a driver's sea position 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:19.920 here just about for this division. This will be a 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:21.840 tough home loss if they were to take it here. 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:24.680 But you want to go to the under instead. Let's 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:26.600 talk about that forty four and why you think this 0:10:26.640 --> 0:10:29.040 one underperforms in terms of total. 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:32.200 Yeah, because I think the Bears defense really found something 0:10:32.200 --> 0:10:35.840 and they're playing really really great football here. They're getting 0:10:35.880 --> 0:10:38.240 to the cornerback, They're getting very very good play from 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:42.120 the outside, especially Jalen Johnson. The issue here on the 0:10:42.160 --> 0:10:44.840 other side is I'm concerned about is the secondary for 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:47.640 the Commanders. But how have they kind of hit that 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:51.480 secondary all season by getting pressure along the line of scrimmage. 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:54.400 What do the Bears have issues with offensive line play? 0:10:54.440 --> 0:10:57.440 They don't get consistent offensive line play. So if the 0:10:57.480 --> 0:10:59.920 Commanders do what they've been doing all season and continue 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:03.079 generating pressure, getting Caleb Williams out of the pocket, forcing 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:05.480 him into those kind of weird throws across his body. 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:07.840 Like a lot of those throws don't work out in 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:10.199 his favor. So I think that turnovers could be there. 0:11:10.360 --> 0:11:13.080 I think that they could get sacks on Kaylen Williams. 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:15.679 I think that we see Kayleb Williams JADEB Daniels, and 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:18.760 you think forty four, Oh, this should go climb over, 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:20.280 climb over, climb over. 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:20.720 No. 0:11:20.840 --> 0:11:22.960 I think this is actually more of a defensive game. 0:11:23.000 --> 0:11:26.080 I think this finishes somewhere around twenty to seventeen, twenty 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:28.480 to ten. So yeah, give me the under forty four here, 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:29.520 next one. 0:11:29.760 --> 0:11:32.080 Sorry, Joe, I just wanted to ask a question for Trell. 0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:33.760 Do you think that, and this is someone I was 0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:35.800 thinking about when I was looking at this particular game, 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:40.640 do you think that Cliff Kingsbury having intel right on 0:11:41.000 --> 0:11:44.560 Caleb Williams do you think that helps the Washington Commanders defense. 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:46.280 Because we saw a couple of weeks ago when the 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:49.880 Cardinals played the Commanders and Kyler Murray looked lost in 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:53.000 that match up, obviously again going against a coach that 0:11:53.360 --> 0:11:56.520 knows him very well. Cliff obviously coached Caleb Williams at 0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:58.560 us for a little bit. Do you think that again, 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:00.400 I'm kind of like, I like the under here, and 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:01.679 I think that's another layer. 0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:02.880 I'm not sure if you had thought about that. 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:06.559 Yeah, no, it is another layer. Yeah, absolutely another layer, 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:09.440 and it helps for scout team quarterback and the Scout 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:11.600 team offense against the defense of Hey, this is what 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:14.120 this guy likes, this is what he does, and so hey, 0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:17.040 we're gonna go ahead and prepare our defense the best way. 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:19.360 I may not be out there being able to get 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:21.280 out on defense and help you, but I can tell 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:23.680 you everything this guy likes to do and what his 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:26.800 tendencies are when he makes mistakes, and those tendencies are 0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:29.160 things really that can help us with an under. I 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:31.200 think that the sacks are going to push them back. 0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:34.400 I think we'll see turnovers on both sides and hopefully 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:35.560 this game just stays low. 0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:38.480 Yeah, no one knows your weakness is better than your 0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:42.439 old ball coach. Typically that's that's how things go. Andrew, 0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:45.199 we got another Indivision match up here. We've got the 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:49.200 Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans this week. Now, the number 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.120 on this one's forty six and a half. The last 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:54.760 time this team's these two teams. Excuse we met twenty 0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:56.960 nine to twenty seven in week one. Now that's week one. 0:12:57.000 --> 0:12:59.560 It's a long time ago. But these teams have had 0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:02.840 some explosive outputs in the past. Again, no Nico Collins 0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:05.440 here for this one. We're not gonna have him. Richardson 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:08.560 has not looked great, at least in the early going 0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:11.199 of that return. So again, forty six and a half 0:13:11.520 --> 0:13:16.440 feels kind of underwhelming considering the history. But you were 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:18.520 talking about living in the present, So in the present, 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:19.720 how do you feel about this total? 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:22.480 I'm going the under This is the Undertaker show apparently, 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:24.280 because we're betting all these under except for in the 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:26.800 Bengals and Eagles, which I'm co signing on all of 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:30.240 Treil's picks so far. I think for me it's you're 0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:34.120 talking about, Yes, we've seen these offenses be explosive back 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:36.960 in week one. Well it's week eight, people, we got 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:39.520 to wake up because when the Texans don't have Nico Collins, 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:43.480 this affects this offense dramatically. Anthony Richardson has been super 0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:46.600 inconsistent when he's not hitting the moonball shot to Alec Pearce, 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:49.520 then they're not scoring any type of points. Look at 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:52.800 Richardson this either, and his four starts are the games 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.680 that he's basically completed the most one and three towards 0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:58.560 the over this year, and the only game that went 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:01.520 over was Week one against the Houston Texans. So basically 0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:04.280 since then, it's been three straight unders for Anthony Richardson 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:06.440 as the quarterback. You look at the Texans at home 0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:10.240 this year, three straight unders averaging forty points per game. 0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:13.960 Under forty points per game. So this Texans defense is underrated, 0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:16.160 continues to be. Five of their last six games have 0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:19.920 gone under the projected total. So I don't see a 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:21.760 reason why I should be backing, well, we're gonna get 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:23.800 points here. Well, we've been saying to that us about 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:25.880 this Colts offense for a while now and it just 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:29.600 hasn't transpired. Houston Texans, like I said, underrated, top five 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:32.920 and fuse yards per play allowed this season. So until 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:35.080 we see something different from Anthony Bridgardson, I'm gonna bet 0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:37.240 against him and this offense putting up points. 0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:40.000 All right, Let's move on here to another one on 0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:44.080 the big Marquee games. At least theoretically, the forty nine 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:46.440 ers who have a ton of injury issues now, No 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:50.480 Brandon Ayuk, he's out, Deebo Hopefully we'll get healthy. Still 0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:54.520 know Christ McCaffrey, George Kittle not healthy either. So it 0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:56.280 is tough right now for the forty nine ers from 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:59.640 a health perspective and certainly from a psychological perspective too. 0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:02.440 They a lot like last year's Eagles, don't they, folks? 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.120 Don't they? A team with the burden of losing a 0:15:05.120 --> 0:15:08.360 tough Super Bowl and then having the tough schedule and 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:11.840 then all the pressure on them. Well, things are not 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:14.760 going well right now in San Francisco. The Cowboys, you 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:16.920 can argue, things aren't going much better. So maybe this's 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:19.240 the perfect time to see the Dallas Cowboys. They're coming 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:21.320 off a bye though, torell the numbers forty six and 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:24.160 a half. The last two time these two teams met up, 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:27.120 forty two ten was the final where the Dallas Cowboys, 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:30.200 well they got their buck kicked by the forty nine ers, 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:32.440 but that was a five to zero forty nine Er 0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:34.960 team at the time. So things are a little different 0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:37.600 right now in terms of the confidence level in San Franz. 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:39.800 So what side of this are you on? 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:43.360 Yeah, I mean you mentioned and you were heavy on 0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:46.040 the forty nine ers injuries. The Cowboys are just the same, 0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:50.080 like they're injured to who knows what in backend. So 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:53.000 you're sitting there. We'll see if Michael Parsons goes in 0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:56.680 this game. But ultimately the forty nine ers have still 0:15:56.720 --> 0:16:01.720 found ways to be a competite football team without the injuries. 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:04.840 I don't know if the Cowboys have. And so the 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:07.360 rush defense is really the issue here for me. I 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:09.760 think the forty nine Ers are gonna go down Nickel 0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:12.520 and ball this ball down the field. They're gonna rush 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:16.600 Jordan Mason into the ground and it's gonna be long 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:18.920 possessions for the forty nine ers. And I don't think 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.960 the Cowboys offensively have anything to give, Like they just 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:24.040 do not look good and it looks like they need 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:25.840 a change. They paid Dack all this money and it 0:16:25.840 --> 0:16:27.840 doesn't seem like he's able to get the ball to 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:29.880 the receiver that they paid all this money too. So 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:32.400 with all of that being said, I don't think it's 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:33.720 gonna be a lot of points. I think this is 0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:36.200 an ugly game with the booth both teams who are 0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:38.360 battered on both sides of the ball. I think the 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:40.440 forty nine Ers is gonna be able to control the clock, 0:16:40.520 --> 0:16:43.360 have long possessions. We could see a two to three 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:47.440 possession first quarter here where in seven to nothing and 0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:50.520 so yeah, I like the under forty six here at 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:52.320 forty six and a half, I think that that's a 0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:54.640 really really good play. I don't expect a lot of points. 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:58.280 I think this is closer to a seventeen to twenty 0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:01.280 type of game where we really don't see a lot 0:17:01.320 --> 0:17:04.000 of big plays from either one of these sides, but 0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:07.080 just more of a lot of controlling possession, trying not 0:17:07.119 --> 0:17:08.879 to turn the football over and trying to get the 0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:09.880 leg up one of the other. 0:17:10.560 --> 0:17:12.840 Yeah, I gotta tell you, if Parsons plays that, we 0:17:12.880 --> 0:17:14.560 don't know if he's going to I like that under 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:16.600 even more. You know, you got to get some defensive 0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:20.000 players back going here in the forty nine Ers right now. Look, 0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:22.040 they might still win this division by default the way 0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:24.200 things are going, but this could be at a very 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:25.920 quick exit for them in the playoffs. Like, yeah, it 0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:29.480 feels a lot like another team last year now, Philadelphia Eagle. 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:31.480 Every year, it's the same thing every year, the same 0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:34.200 thing happens. Everybody ignores it. They're always the first or 0:17:34.240 --> 0:17:36.000 second team on the board right after the Super Bowl. 0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:38.400 Whoever lost the Super Bowl? When are we going to learn? 0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:40.240