Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here
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Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody,
Speaker 3: Happy Monday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What
Speaker 3: do we have, Crystal.
Speaker 1: Here we go one day until election day, so we
Speaker 1: got a big electorally focused show for you. Logan's going
Speaker 1: to be here talking about whether the state of Iowa. Yes,
Speaker 1: that's right, Iowa is in play. Ann Selzer shocked the
Speaker 1: world with her pole drop this weekend, so we'll get
Speaker 1: into that. Campaigns are also out with their closing ads,
Speaker 1: so we'll take a look at how they are making
Speaker 1: their final case to voters. Also, Little Epstein, Little Epstein
Speaker 1: info some audio tapes released where he talks about how
Speaker 1: he was Donald Trump's best friend from tenure for ten years,
Speaker 1: so we'll dig into the relevance of that.
Speaker 4: Also asking the question if Trump October.
Speaker 1: Surprised himself with that Medicine Square Garden rally. New York
Speaker 1: Times is declaring the end of identity politics, but they
Speaker 1: write about that, and of course Sager and I with
Speaker 1: the big reveal of our maps making the case for
Speaker 1: why we think the election is going the way that
Speaker 1: we think it's going to go. So break down the
Speaker 1: data reveal both of our maps. We have them going
Speaker 1: in two different directions, so that should be interesting.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it'll be fun.
Speaker 2: We've got our whole thought process laid out, you know,
Speaker 2: not to brag or anything, just called every state in
Speaker 2: the electoral college last.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you nailed the lot I got.
Speaker 2: Look extremely lucky. I have much lower confidence in this
Speaker 2: map this time around. But that's why it's fun, right,
Speaker 2: That's why it's fun to do. As a reminder, thank
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Speaker 3: Yeah.
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Speaker 1: It's gotta know how election very great flues, right, although
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Speaker 1: necessarily that we're really going to know how the story
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Speaker 2: Very excited to be joined now by Race to the
Speaker 2: White House, Logan Phillips, our exclusive election Partner's great to
Speaker 2: see you.
Speaker 3: My friend.
Speaker 5: Hey, great to see you as aways.
Speaker 3: All right, so let's get into it. Yeah, sure, all
Speaker 3: of us.
Speaker 2: At exactly seven oh one pm on Saturday, for election
Speaker 2: nerds out there, it was a big super Bowl. The
Speaker 2: Iowa Seltzer poll dropped absolutely shocked the entire political world
Speaker 2: and really made this thing much more to toss up
Speaker 2: than I think others were prepared for us. Let's gohea
Speaker 2: and put this up there on the screen and take
Speaker 2: a look. So what they have inside of the Des
Speaker 2: Moines Register, the famed you know, Iowa and Seltzer poll,
Speaker 2: is that they have Kamala Harris up by three points
Speaker 2: on Donald Trump in the state logan. Now, the reason
Speaker 2: why this is such a shock is that this poll,
Speaker 2: arguably previously was one of the main reasons why Joe
Speaker 2: Biden dropped out of the race, had him down by
Speaker 2: eighteen points against Donald Trump, which people were transposing those
Speaker 2: results onto neighboring Michigan and Wisconsin and saying, if that's
Speaker 2: the truth, then there's absolutely no way that Joe Biden
Speaker 2: has a chance at winning any of these any blue
Speaker 2: wall states. Now, Iowa, I mean what a democrat is
Speaker 2: not one? I Once is twenty twelve, So the first
Speaker 2: time in twelve years of the poll has a Democrat
Speaker 2: leading there. Donald Trump went it by somewhat ten points
Speaker 2: or so last time around. So give us your analysis,
Speaker 2: not only in terms of you know, we can give
Speaker 2: all the caveats if it's true, if it's an outlier,
Speaker 2: and all that, but let's let's start with and let's
Speaker 2: suppose it is true.
Speaker 3: What does that tell us about what's gonna happen tomorrow?
Speaker 5: Well, you know, I had just finished work for the
Speaker 5: day on Saturday, and my intern called me and told
Speaker 5: me the result, and I like had him check five times.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I had. I was multiple times. I was like,
Speaker 3: there's no way. Yeah, we checked like.
Speaker 1: Eight different Twitter accounts before I believed it, because it
Speaker 1: was like they must have at least flipped the results
Speaker 1: because even if it was Trump only up by three,
Speaker 1: just that ye'd be terrible cataclysmic.
Speaker 5: For Yeah, because in the post blue check era, you
Speaker 5: never know if like count as someone that is like
Speaker 5: Dave washer Men's or something, it's just like slightly off.
Speaker 5: But no, the poll was legit, and so if it
Speaker 5: were anyone else, I'd be like, Okay, this had a
Speaker 5: weird day. Good on them releasing it. But Selzer called
Speaker 5: prison Obama winning in a landslide in the two thousand
Speaker 5: and eight Iowa caucus when no one else saw it right.
Speaker 5: Rick Santorum having a shocking win over Mitt Romney in
Speaker 5: the coming like from two percent of five weeks ago.
Speaker 5: In twenty twelve called Donald Trump's surprisingly strong win both
Speaker 5: cycles in Iowa. So I don't think we can dismiss
Speaker 5: it given that almost every time she breaks with convention,
Speaker 5: she's right, this one is breaking so hard more than
Speaker 5: any of the others with what we expect that I
Speaker 5: don't think she's right that he's gonna win it. But
Speaker 5: before I viewed it as a safe race, Mount model
Speaker 5: had it a two percent chance for them. Yeah, hey,
Speaker 5: maybe it was. Doesn't reflect well. I mean I should
Speaker 5: get a little more room for incertainty there. Now I
Speaker 5: have it up to around twenty or you know, twenty five.
Speaker 5: Sure which.
Speaker 4: Chance I want to when.
Speaker 1: That's I mean to be clear, no one was looking
Speaker 1: at Iowa as a battle guard, including the campaigns yea,
Speaker 1: Like they're not campaigning there, they're not running ads there,
Speaker 1: they're not doing any of that. And so what she
Speaker 1: finds we can put this up on the screen is
Speaker 1: she finds effectively huge movement among women. Kamala is wunning
Speaker 1: independent women in this poll in Iowa by twenty eight points.
Speaker 1: She's up by a two to one margin among senior women.
Speaker 1: And so that's basically the story that she's telling is
Speaker 1: that Roe being overturned was a political earthquake. It has
Speaker 1: dramatically shifted the electorate, and other pollsters are not capturing
Speaker 1: the movement among women, in particular towards Kamala Harris and
Speaker 1: towards Democrats. How much credence do you give to that story?
Speaker 1: Are there any other data points to support this, because
Speaker 1: as we know, as we've been covering on the show,
Speaker 1: almost every other poll is like tie, tie, tie, plus
Speaker 1: one in this way, plus one that way, maybe plus
Speaker 1: two if we're getting crazy. But it has been so
Speaker 1: old stable and such a coin flip this entire time.
Speaker 5: So I would say the odds are that it is
Speaker 5: just going to be wrong by quite a bit. There's
Speaker 5: a case though, that she's right, and if there's a
Speaker 5: huge pulling miss against Harrs. These are some of the seeds.
Speaker 5: There's another seed we saw last week. We were talking
Speaker 5: about hurting last week. Yeah, it's silver. This really good
Speaker 5: analysis over the weekend, at least I read it over
Speaker 5: the weekend. So there's like less than a one in
Speaker 5: a trillion chance that the posters aren't hurting.
Speaker 2: I think it was nine point five trillion, ye five trillion,
Speaker 2: chan wow, So I don't even know what the decimal
Speaker 2: point on that would look.
Speaker 5: Like, Yeah, my brain isn't big enough to be able
Speaker 5: to calculate mentally, the difference.
Speaker 3: Between getting struck by lightning like eight times is more likely. Yeah.
Speaker 5: So the reason they're doing this is because no one
Speaker 5: wants to be Quinnipiac being name checked by Donald Trump
Speaker 5: after a bad cycle, blaming, you know, blaming them, and
Speaker 5: that hurts their ability to get revenue. Hey, ABC, Washington
Speaker 5: Post is pole partner. They've been with them for a
Speaker 5: long time. Theyan one of the best. They had a
Speaker 5: horrible cycle. They're not with them anymore, so it's easier
Speaker 5: to stay in the middle. I'm not saying all posters
Speaker 5: are doing this, but clearly a lot of them are
Speaker 5: trying to play it safe. The second thought of this
Speaker 5: is maybe they're not just staying.
Speaker 6: In the middle.
Speaker 5: Maybe they're in particular avoiding having out liars the fever Harris,
Speaker 5: because that's a lot more dangerous. She's not gonna name
Speaker 5: check pollsters in her speech accepting defeat right.
Speaker 2: Well, Also, I think it's it wouldn't even be the
Speaker 2: name checking, it's just that it's a pattern. It would
Speaker 2: be three cycles in a row rxact and that would
Speaker 2: mean that you have a systemic problem. And let's just
Speaker 2: hammer home for people what the past results. Can we
Speaker 2: put a four please up on the screen. So here
Speaker 2: you have the final Seltzer fold result poll findings and
Speaker 2: the results. On twenty twenty two centate she had R
Speaker 2: plus twelve. The result was R plus twelve. Twenty twenty
Speaker 2: President she had R plus seven. It was R plus eight.
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty Senate she had R plus four. It was
Speaker 2: R plus seven. Twenty eighteen gubernatorial she had this is
Speaker 2: an interesting she had D plus two and it was
Speaker 2: R plus three, So that was one of the bigger misses.
Speaker 2: Twenty sixteen presidents she had R plus seven. It was
Speaker 2: R plus nine. Twenty fourteen Senate she had R plus seven.
Speaker 2: It was R plus eight. Twenty twelve President she had
Speaker 2: D plus five. It was D plus six. So, as
Speaker 2: he says, about as good as any polster as gets.
Speaker 2: If we look back in the last twelve years, if
Speaker 2: your biggest miss is a five point swing towards Republicans,
Speaker 2: that's roughly two points outside the margin of error. So
Speaker 2: if we were even think that, you know here three
Speaker 2: points margin of error, so that would mean it's actually tied.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is up by two, Trump up only a
Speaker 2: two in Iowa, a state that he won by what
Speaker 2: eight points last time around. That's kind of a disaster, right,
Speaker 2: So if that's if we take it seriously. The other
Speaker 2: case is just a massive outlier or you have polling
Speaker 2: response bias or any of that.
Speaker 3: So can you run through.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's that's still by far the most likely when
Speaker 5: something wildly goes against your assumptions, even it's a great Polster,
Speaker 5: that's the probability. That being said, I literally have a
Speaker 5: Salzer specific contingent in my pulling up a John for
Speaker 5: anyone else because I found every single cycle and I
Speaker 5: tested it, the more way that gave to Selzer's pull,
Speaker 5: the better it was. And so eventually I kind of
Speaker 5: had to bite the bullet and just do that.
Speaker 2: So I think Silvera has the same thing. He says
Speaker 2: higher rates Polster in his entire average.
Speaker 5: So there you go. Yeah, yeah, and you know what,
Speaker 5: we have seen similar things in Nebraska. Second, I mean
Speaker 5: that wass expected Harris to be leaving. She's even like
Speaker 5: ten points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think what in Biden went in by a
Speaker 1: last it's like college vote, right, including I believe the
Speaker 1: New York Times poll of that district had her up
Speaker 1: by twelve.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so quite significant.
Speaker 1: Okay, So let's say that even if Kamwa Hurst isn't
Speaker 1: winning Iowa, but this is sort of directionally correct, right,
Speaker 1: She's picking up movement that other pollsters are suppressing out
Speaker 1: of whatever reason. How does that translate to the other
Speaker 1: states in the region. Could it be because we actually
Speaker 1: have some information here? I'm not sure what element it is,
Speaker 1: but anyway, Iowa has a six week abortion pan that
Speaker 1: was just instituted and it has been a central issue
Speaker 1: in terms of the political conversation in the state. So
Speaker 1: is it possible she is picking up some accurate movement
Speaker 1: in the state of Iowa, but that is very specific
Speaker 1: to that state and does not really translate to Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.
Speaker 4: Et cetera.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean those states have had some ability to
Speaker 5: moderate on abortion in the twenty twenty two midterms, set
Speaker 5: good point. Iowa didn't have, and you know, I would
Speaker 5: swung a little bit back. In twenty eighteen, Democrats won
Speaker 5: three out of four House seats. They might have won
Speaker 5: four if Steve King, the guy who called himself a
Speaker 5: white nationalist, to lose his primary. Wow, and then it
Speaker 5: lurns hard right in twenty and twenty twenty two. Right,
Speaker 5: there's a possibility like an object in motion in politics,
Speaker 5: isn't away state in motions of course?
Speaker 2: Versus that's such an important thing for people to understand.
Speaker 2: You know, it wasn't that people today, probably if you're young,
Speaker 2: you're like, oh, I was a red state, Like, well,
Speaker 2: wasn't that long ago?
Speaker 3: You know, Obama won it.
Speaker 2: You want to buy a decent amount the last two
Speaker 2: times around, Let's go ahead and move on. I think
Speaker 2: to Emerson, this was this is the counter right a five?
Speaker 2: Can we put that please on the screen. So the
Speaker 2: very same day that Seltzer comes out, Emerson also comes
Speaker 2: out with its own pole. It's got Trump up by
Speaker 2: ten here in Iowa. Now, the criticism I've seen is
Speaker 2: that Emerson is more one of the hurting polsters, you
Speaker 2: know that is out there. They may be using the
Speaker 2: traditional like recall to vote. I think Chrystal's point is
Speaker 2: really key. You know, one of the reasons why nobody's
Speaker 2: been paying attention is that people thought it was read state.
Speaker 3: Neither the campaign's been paying attention.
Speaker 2: But you know, locally they did literally just have a
Speaker 2: six week abortion man that went into effect, and of
Speaker 2: course that's going to be felt deeply by the people there.
Speaker 2: And actually in the congressional races, they have all been
Speaker 2: running crazy ads on abortion in either direction for this
Speaker 2: entire time, which could be itself obviously contribute to the
Speaker 2: overall presidential result. But that's a confounding variable, I mean,
Speaker 2: really is interesting because one of those where it's like, look,
Speaker 2: somebody's gonna be right here, you know, and she's got
Speaker 2: a famous reputation and all that, but if it turns
Speaker 2: out to be catastrophically wrong, it will certainly it'll i
Speaker 2: mean be her biggest miss ever.
Speaker 5: I think, yeah, it will be, and I'll give her
Speaker 5: respect for doing it. She's fearless.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yes, she's got what it can.
Speaker 2: You explain the methodology too, so as I understand, it's
Speaker 2: not weighted per se. It's more like random digit dialing that.
Speaker 5: Yeah, she's calling voter rolls, not just random people, so
Speaker 5: you can't go into that. Yeah, she's trying to get
Speaker 5: a sense of which different groups are going to vote
Speaker 5: by just talking to everyone and then getting represented sample
Speaker 5: the elector, which has worked for her. It's a little
Speaker 5: old school, but you know, the reality is you don't
Speaker 5: know which groups are gonna vote more. You use last
Speaker 5: cycles as a basic principle, but it's part of the
Speaker 5: reason why you're going to underrate people, Right.
Speaker 1: So let's do the opposite, so you know, if she's wrong, obviously,
Speaker 1: this is devastating for her reputation. Everybody else is proved right,
Speaker 1: including the posters who were just like, let's kind of
Speaker 1: cluge it and make sure it's not.
Speaker 4: Too far off of the twenty twenty yearsult.
Speaker 1: What if she's right, then what does that do to
Speaker 1: the entire rest of the polling industry If she's correct
Speaker 1: and we're in the type of landslide territory where Kamala
Speaker 1: Harris is winning the state of Iowa or even competing
Speaker 1: contesting the state of Ioway.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it would definitely free upholsters from hurting next time, I.
Speaker 1: Said a lot of posters a lot of time in general, Yeah, I.
Speaker 5: Think everyone's ratings, including myself, for polsters they are forecasting,
Speaker 5: would emphasize to a greater degree those that don't hurt
Speaker 5: that would get more positive coverage.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Now it's kind of laughing at the ones that do that. Right,
Speaker 5: start to switch ever so slightly now, So I think
Speaker 5: it would change industry in that regard. Would it decrease
Speaker 5: trust to a degree? Yeah? I mean we're also you know,
Speaker 5: we're in a cynical era. I don't if it's a social
Speaker 5: media thing or what goes viral. But when you mess
Speaker 5: up everyone sitting more than you get it right.
Speaker 3: Very true, It's absolutely true.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's not fun to talk about which polster was
Speaker 5: the best.
Speaker 2: Correct and also the people who are the best in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty were wrong in twenty sixteen. So it's one
Speaker 2: of those where it's you can't really use just past
Speaker 2: results as a perfect predictor.
Speaker 1: It will be like literally the only polster that anyone
Speaker 1: listens to.
Speaker 7: Yeah, if she ends up being correct here, Yeah, that's
Speaker 7: a good point.
Speaker 2: Let's go and put New York Times then up on
Speaker 2: the screen because this is a little bit of a
Speaker 2: different story and actually a very confounding and interesting one.
Speaker 2: So the New York Times CNA, this is a poll which,
Speaker 2: let's give them credit, they haven't heard it in the past, right,
Speaker 2: and they don't use the weighted sampling, but they've got
Speaker 2: very very different results here. So in Nevada they have
Speaker 2: Harris up by two points, North Carolina they have Harris
Speaker 2: up by two, sorry three points, can't do perfect math here.
Speaker 2: Wisconsin they have her up by two, Georgia they have
Speaker 2: her up by one, but in Pennsylvania they have it tied.
Speaker 2: In Michigan they have it tied as well. And then
Speaker 2: in Arizona they have Trump up by four. So they
Speaker 2: actually have Harris in Nevada, in North Carolina and was
Speaker 2: constant in Georgia and but then tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Speaker 2: So a tightening there in the blue Wall states, whereas
Speaker 2: a sunbelt kind of all over the map with an
Speaker 2: Arizona leading for Trump, but Nevada they're leading for Harris.
Speaker 2: What can you What do you make of these results
Speaker 2: and some of the cross tabs as to their explanation
Speaker 2: as to how they got there.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I sell of them was straightforward path for Harris
Speaker 5: is from Pennsylvania. But North Carolina's probably the best back
Speaker 5: in my buddy.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a number two tipping state I think in
Speaker 3: the silver analysis.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I think for me it's two or three too.
Speaker 5: So I think that we you know, I've said this before,
Speaker 5: hay to be broken record. We get too locked into
Speaker 5: like what the cleanest path is there's so many variations
Speaker 5: I could easily absolutely yeah, you're right, which I didn't
Speaker 5: know this before today, but somehow I just found you
Speaker 5: got every single.
Speaker 3: Right, totally totally lucky.
Speaker 5: Like I think you and Larious about are the only
Speaker 5: two people I've heard of that got both Florida and
Speaker 5: Georgia right. Oh really, And I think it's a good
Speaker 5: example for the rest of US mortals that states consume
Speaker 5: in the other direction we expect, right, because you don't
Speaker 5: expect Georgia to be to write a Florida going into
Speaker 5: that cycle. So Carolina could easily end up there. I mean,
Speaker 5: there's a lot of low kind of like you're talking
Speaker 5: about a Viowa. North Carolina is being governed right now
Speaker 5: well by the super majority in the state house. Is
Speaker 5: if they're a very very deep red state, when it's
Speaker 5: a swing state, that can easily turn off voters, especially
Speaker 5: in abortion and yeah.
Speaker 2: In migration, very liberal. That's a difference with Arizona. I'll
Speaker 2: talk about this in my prediction, but that's a key
Speaker 2: part of my prediction.
Speaker 1: Let's put a seven up on the screen here. This
Speaker 1: is the some of the abortion stuff that I referred
Speaker 1: to before So you've got a number of states that
Speaker 1: have abortion related ballot initiatives that will be you know,
Speaker 1: on the ballot tomorrow. Nevada and Arizona are two of them,
Speaker 1: Florida another one.
Speaker 4: How much if we look.
Speaker 1: At twenty twenty two, because that's the only post row
Speaker 1: cycle that we really have to look at, how much
Speaker 1: did it matter the state specific abortion politics? So you know,
Speaker 1: do you think, for example, that in Nevada, in Arizona,
Speaker 1: because they have abortion ballot initiatives that voters are also
Speaker 1: going to be voting on, that that could shift vote
Speaker 1: be impactful in terms of the ultimate.
Speaker 5: Outcome if it we're twenty twenty six, Oh my gosh, yes,
Speaker 5: because it's a presidential your interest is already higher. It's
Speaker 5: certainly help but for Democrats. But it's not nearly as
Speaker 5: big of a help as it would be because this
Speaker 5: is the biggest game in town. It already gets people engaged, Right.
Speaker 3: That makes sense.
Speaker 2: Can we put Iowa early vote up on the screen.
Speaker 2: This was a confounder to some of the Steltzer results.
Speaker 2: Uist tic A look, this tell me what you think.
Speaker 2: So in terms of the Iowa early vote, what they
Speaker 2: see is, you know, pretty decent Republican share of early
Speaker 2: vote there highest that it's been, you know, in terms
Speaker 2: of where it is now. Obviously that no party vote
Speaker 2: is still some twenty one percent. Obviously, if Seltzer is correct,
Speaker 2: then that would mean that almost all of that is
Speaker 2: swinging towards the Democrats, which it actually would back up some.
Speaker 3: Of her results.
Speaker 2: But taking a look at the early vote, this is
Speaker 2: what I've saw a lot of Republicans and their criticisms say,
Speaker 2: is like, look, we just don't see any of this
Speaker 2: right now. If anything, we're seeing like Republican enthusiasm coming
Speaker 2: out in terms of their share of the early vote electorate.
Speaker 3: I guess part of that could.
Speaker 2: Be is they're just more use to voting early now
Speaker 2: time around, so you shouldn't read too much. And then,
Speaker 2: of course the Democratic response is yes, but take a
Speaker 2: look at that indie share, and the indie share could
Speaker 2: be overwhelmingly Democratic.
Speaker 5: Yeah, And throwing to the fact that I always been
Speaker 5: zipping right at a fast pace, it was twelve points
Speaker 5: to the right of the popular vote, I believe last cycle,
Speaker 5: if voted dark plus eight, I believe Maybia was a
Speaker 5: little more in that. So for to then all of
Speaker 5: a sudden move. I mean some of the polling and
Speaker 5: the popular vote is showing it tied plus one plus two.
Speaker 5: Hats so that would mean it zipped thirteen the other way.
Speaker 5: Yeah right, unless well, if she's winning Iowa buy three,
Speaker 5: the popular vote at that point is highly likely to
Speaker 5: be like t plus two.
Speaker 3: Yeah, correct, good point.
Speaker 1: Yeah boy, it would be a wild night if that
Speaker 1: ends up being even remotely accurate. It's going to be
Speaker 1: very surprising, I think for all of us if we
Speaker 1: were to see that happen. But you know, take it
Speaker 1: with all the other polling results, and I don't know,
Speaker 1: make of it what you will. Let's go ahead and
Speaker 1: take a look at the Senate and how we're looking there.
Speaker 1: We can put your projection up on the screen. Guys,
Speaker 1: this is a ten. So just take us through the
Speaker 1: US a little bit, how these various races are breaking,
Speaker 1: and what the most likely outcome is Wednesday morning when
Speaker 1: things start to shake down.
Speaker 5: Yeah. So this is where I have the polling average, right,
Speaker 5: And so I think that the pathway for Dams is
Speaker 5: just for one thing to go wrong for Republicans and
Speaker 5: for them to hold on to Ohio where they have
Speaker 5: a small lead. They got four states where that could
Speaker 5: be an option to Braska, Texas, Florida, in Montana. All
Speaker 5: of those except Montana have been moving a little more
Speaker 5: to the right lay in the close, which is kind
Speaker 5: of what we expected. There's still a pathway for it
Speaker 5: to happen, but you know, they're underdogs. Two and three
Speaker 5: shots you hold onto the Senate maybe a touch more.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think we have that.
Speaker 1: We can show the projection the next element at age
Speaker 1: eleven that shows the chances of winning a Senate majority.
Speaker 1: So you've got Democrats at roughly a third of you know,
Speaker 1: thirty three percent and Republicans roughly sixty six percent. So
Speaker 1: Democrats was like a one in three shot at keeping
Speaker 1: the Senate majority. So is it your assessment at this
Speaker 1: point their best shot is Montana.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I still think it is. I mean, testers has
Speaker 5: a lot of fundamental strengths. Last selection needed a great job.
Speaker 5: He has a huge fundraising advantage, which is signing candidate
Speaker 5: qualities running against the first time candidate. She has a strength,
Speaker 5: has some weaknesses with the whole gun.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll talk about that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, before we get to that, I'm just I'm looking.
Speaker 3: I'm looking at the analysis.
Speaker 2: So for the Democrats to so like in this, you know, overperform,
Speaker 2: Like where would the pickups cause it would be Montana
Speaker 2: and then what else for them.
Speaker 3: To keep a majority?
Speaker 5: Oh they just need Montana, they just Needo wow.
Speaker 3: Oh oh if they hold.
Speaker 5: On to them, which they probably Well when I said probably,
Speaker 5: like I think it might be the closest Senate race,
Speaker 5: right yeah, and by the time they're picking up another
Speaker 5: that they probably have Ohio huh. And he's led most
Speaker 5: of the polling.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's led.
Speaker 2: You know in most ways. They don't seem all that confident.
Speaker 2: The Marina I mean, even the internal ones that they've
Speaker 2: released show him running like well below Trump. I mean,
Speaker 2: Sherey Brown's a strong candidate. He's an actual credibility on
Speaker 2: union It's deal issues. He's been there for what like
Speaker 2: twelve to two cycles now for We're literally rid a
Speaker 2: book he supported a lot of He's running ads me
Speaker 2: like I support President Trump's tariffs.
Speaker 3: You know, it's like everything you bossibly.
Speaker 5: Don Yeah, exactly, That's what they used to do. That's
Speaker 5: what ends used to do.
Speaker 2: That's my question then about Osborne, So how does he
Speaker 2: factor into all this? How's the polling been looking at him?
Speaker 2: Because we've been keeping our eye on.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's gotten a little more friendly to Fisher, which
Speaker 5: makes some sense, but it's still Razor tiet. Yeah, he's
Speaker 5: out running Fisher to the right and his ad. It's
Speaker 5: kind of interesting to see saying I stand with Trump
Speaker 5: and all these things, and Fisher's been bought out by
Speaker 5: big donors, right, and you know it. I think it's
Speaker 5: working even if he doesn't win, because it's incredible how
Speaker 5: close it is.
Speaker 1: Yeah, truly, truly, it definitely could be a model for
Speaker 1: future cycles.
Speaker 5: Oh, I think it will be as was Evan McMullen
Speaker 5: for him, I mean, he's running a more monerorate campaign.
Speaker 5: That was the guy who ran in Utah. I only
Speaker 5: lost to Lee by ten points plus thirty our state. Yeah.
Speaker 5: So so one other thing on Ohio. I think part
Speaker 5: of the problem for them is, you know, people don't
Speaker 5: trust politicians just about the only career profession that people
Speaker 5: trust least as he used car salesman and so, you know,
Speaker 5: forget regardless of marinos individual characteristics like that, that's a
Speaker 5: hard thing to get over from me.
Speaker 3: That's his.
Speaker 2: That's absolutely true. They literally have they have a national reputation.
Speaker 2: I think for a reason. Well, you teased up Montana,
Speaker 2: so I guess we have to get to it. There's
Speaker 2: this shocking clip of Megan Kelly interviewing Tim she about
Speaker 2: an alleged gunshot wound incident where he claims what did
Speaker 2: he say the gate?
Speaker 1: Okay, so here's what he claims. He claims he was
Speaker 1: wounded during his military service. And now he's saying that
Speaker 1: when he went to a national park, he fell while
Speaker 1: he was hiking and the bullet fell.
Speaker 4: Out of his arm.
Speaker 1: But then he lied to the park rangers and said
Speaker 1: that he accidentally shot himself while he was at the park,
Speaker 1: and of course the story has shifted, and basically it
Speaker 1: looks like he lied about being wounded during his service
Speaker 1: and how he actually was wounded by was by shooting
Speaker 1: himself international park, which also, by the way, that would
Speaker 1: be a leader. You're not allowed to discharge firearm in
Speaker 1: national park, so there's that as well. So anyway, Megan Kelly,
Speaker 1: who's obviously on the right Trump supporter once Republic gets
Speaker 1: to win, et cetera, was trying to get to the
Speaker 1: bottom of what the hell his story even actually was,
Speaker 1: and even now he still can't really explain it. In
Speaker 1: a way that makes any kind of sense. Let's take
Speaker 1: a listen to how that went.
Speaker 7: They're saying that you were in a park, Glacier Park,
Speaker 7: that you dropped your weapon, that it went off inadvertently
Speaker 7: and it shot you in the arm, and that there's
Speaker 7: a park ranger saying she spoke to you about that.
Speaker 7: It looks like you spoke to the Washington Post and
Speaker 7: you said that you lied when you told the park
Speaker 7: ranger about this.
Speaker 3: So which is it like?
Speaker 7: Did you shoot yourself in the arm inadvertently in Glacier Park.
Speaker 8: No, We've discussed this at length, repeatedly with every media
Speaker 8: outlet for the last year.
Speaker 5: It's been beat to death.
Speaker 8: The point was, at the time I was injured and
Speaker 8: went to the hospital, they required a police report because
Speaker 8: any unshot room requires a police support of any kind. Uh,
Speaker 8: And they said, we have to file this, we have
Speaker 8: to report this law enforcement, but it wouldn't work.
Speaker 5: It happened.
Speaker 3: Did you have a wound in the park.
Speaker 8: Yes, I fell and injured my arm when when we
Speaker 8: were hiking. So that's why I went because you know,
Speaker 8: I could feel the bullet at dis large when I
Speaker 8: when I when I fell and fell on the arm,
Speaker 8: you could feel the bulletet dislodged, and then went to
Speaker 8: the er to say, hey, you know, look, you know
Speaker 8: I've got internal blane going on here, I've injured my arm.
Speaker 8: Can you take a look at this, make sure there's
Speaker 8: nothing serious going on here? And then medical.
Speaker 7: Records for the where the er can say we did
Speaker 7: not treat a gunshot wound, Well.
Speaker 5: There isn't.
Speaker 8: I mean, that's the point. You go in, you check
Speaker 8: on it, and you leave. There's not an extensive medical
Speaker 8: record for any of this stuff.
Speaker 3: So uh yeah, I don't really know anything about what.
Speaker 5: He just said right there, figuring out.
Speaker 3: It fell out of his arm that didn't happen.
Speaker 2: What do you say previously is like navy steal dudes,
Speaker 2: he was involved and whenever, why would you lie.
Speaker 1: To the claim that you shot yourself when actually your
Speaker 1: bullet just out of your arm while you're hiking. Oh
Speaker 1: and conveniently there's no medical records.
Speaker 3: It's a magic bully. That's why I was okay.
Speaker 2: It was like literally like the magic bullet that fell
Speaker 2: out of Governor Connolly with the Kennedy assassin. Anyways, the
Speaker 2: point is that's getting a lot of attention in Montana.
Speaker 3: A lot of gun.
Speaker 2: Owners who are there, and I think he's been hit
Speaker 2: with that. So you think that there's a possibility of
Speaker 2: an upset, there's.
Speaker 5: A possibility for sure that Tester ones he's done it before.
Speaker 5: He's out performing poles before. Yeah, I mean, Tester is
Speaker 5: he crafts quite a persona you know, has three fingers
Speaker 5: lost too on the farm. He comes back literally every
Speaker 5: weekend from the Senate to farm. You know, he's he's
Speaker 5: as committed to his ranch as any Montana rancher.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: He's also a state that used to elect fifty percent
Speaker 5: of its statewide officials were Democrats for like the first
Speaker 5: twelve or fourteen years of the center of this mollennium,
Speaker 5: and that solely ended one by one, even as it
Speaker 5: was voting for Republicans for a while. But that's the
Speaker 5: ticket voting is reducing, so it's getting tough for every year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that's I mean, I guess.
Speaker 2: Actually my final thing here on the Senate part is,
Speaker 2: can you give you people a sense of how crazy
Speaker 2: Senate races can be off? Like, what was it main
Speaker 2: last times they had her down by I think twelve
Speaker 2: I actually want to say twelve points for Susan Collins,
Speaker 2: but it might have been eight.
Speaker 3: It was something like that.
Speaker 5: She won by eight and she was down by two
Speaker 5: or three, so the margin might have been.
Speaker 2: The margin's crazy, right, But then they had what Jamie Harrison,
Speaker 2: they had it tied with Lindsay Graham.
Speaker 3: He won by like seventeen or something.
Speaker 5: That's that's the height of bad pulling for the Senate
Speaker 5: was twenty. It was even worse than the presidential pulling.
Speaker 5: You didn't get as much attention. So it's normally as
Speaker 5: bad is that, but it can be. Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 5: Senate poll misses are bigger than presidential on average.
Speaker 3: And people don't spend a lot of money.
Speaker 2: National media outlets are not spending money pulling Montana all
Speaker 2: the time. They're not spending a lot of money pulling
Speaker 2: Ohio as well. So I guess the point of preparing
Speaker 2: people is upsetts can happen in those places in particular,
Speaker 2: Like we just showed everyone with Iowa, no one's poll
Speaker 2: in Iowa except pants Oltzer.
Speaker 3: So you know, we don't have a lot of data.
Speaker 2: It could be, you know, certainly possible, but it just
Speaker 2: shows that big surprises like that can come from places
Speaker 2: that people are not paying all that much attention to
Speaker 2: I remember Texas last time, that big Latino surge. Nobody
Speaker 2: picked it up period in any of the national polling
Speaker 2: because there had no reason to be poll in South Texas.
Speaker 2: And then the polls come in and it was the
Speaker 2: PoTA County or whatever goes in for Trump. You're like,
Speaker 2: what the hell is going on down here? So it
Speaker 2: can be fun for tomorrow night, is what I'm preparing for.
Speaker 1: Last question for you, you know, what is the extent the
Speaker 1: likely extent of ticket splitting that we could see, you know,
Speaker 1: and this is relevant not just in the Senate race.
Speaker 1: I'm thinking of North Carolina in particular. Yeah, this dude
Speaker 1: running for governor, Mark Robinson on the Republican side, is
Speaker 1: probably gonna lose, but definitely double digits, maybe fifteen.
Speaker 4: Maybe twenty.
Speaker 1: And yet it's a state that Trump really kind of
Speaker 1: needs to win. So do you think it's possible to
Speaker 1: have that level of ticket splitting?
Speaker 4: Yes?
Speaker 1: And what about in the Senate races. I've seen some
Speaker 1: indications that, you know, there was more separation between the
Speaker 1: presidential race and the Senate candidates. On the Democratic side
Speaker 1: in particular, it seems like in the blue Wall states.
Speaker 1: That seems to be tightening, and there seems to be
Speaker 1: sort of more direct correlation between the presidential race and
Speaker 1: the Senate races. Are you seeing that in other places?
Speaker 5: Well, yeah, there's some correlation, for sure. They're getting closer.
Speaker 5: But I mean, look, Pennsylvania is like a fifty to
Speaker 5: fifty state for the presidentially my model, it's eighty percent
Speaker 5: for the Senate. That's upset that happened. Yeah, it acquire
Speaker 5: twenty twenty level polling miss for McCormick to win. That's
Speaker 5: happened before, but that's one the biggest polling misses we've
Speaker 5: ever seen. So he's an underdog. He's done a good
Speaker 5: job against Casey, who overperformed Hillary Clinton by like fifteen
Speaker 5: points some red rural districts. Wow, he goes everywhere.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, and he's from Western pet Pa. He's
Speaker 2: got the credibility, he's got the family name. He's like,
Speaker 2: it's as good as it gets.
Speaker 5: I think for Pencil, I went to undergrad in Gettysburg
Speaker 5: and he was shown up in Gettysburg more than one really,
Speaker 5: and that's that's deep red area.
Speaker 4: Very interesting.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, we are going to see you tomorrow night.
Speaker 1: Here for the big show. So yeah, thank you. I
Speaker 1: was always great to have your insights.
Speaker 3: Good to see me on guys. All right, let's get
Speaker 3: to it.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, So we are going to spend some
Speaker 1: time taking a look at the closing pitch from both campaigns.
Speaker 1: Up first, this is the fun closing ad from the
Speaker 1: Trump campaignless segalism.
Speaker 6: Four years ago, we took a wrong turn and lost
Speaker 6: our purpose. We lost the strength that makes Americans who
Speaker 6: we are. If we dared to speak the truth, it
Speaker 6: was called hate speech and our values were labeled shameful.
Speaker 6: That's what everything we care about fell apart. We surrendered
Speaker 6: our borders, our paychecks, and our courage. Our patriotism was
Speaker 6: called toxic. Men could beat up women and win medals,
Speaker 6: but there was no prize for the guy who got
Speaker 6: up every day to do his job. Now we're being
Speaker 6: asked to settle for the way things are, and we're
Speaker 6: wondering if America can make a comeback. We can because
Speaker 6: we've done it before. When we get knocked down, we
Speaker 6: don't stay down. We get up again. We fight. We fight.
Speaker 5: I'm Donald J. Trump and I approved this message.
Speaker 1: So closing there with the Trump assassination attempt famous fight
Speaker 1: Fight Fight moment. You know one thing I just noticed
Speaker 1: watching that song, almost one hundred percent men in that ad.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's well, there was one lady there of I.
Speaker 3: Mean, come on, how cannot watch that?
Speaker 2: It's obviously the most masculine return ad that it is.
Speaker 2: I mean, well, that's the strategy, that's what they need,
Speaker 2: that's how they should come out to win. If you
Speaker 2: think about it, that's a very American carnage message from
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen. It's exactly one in the White House in
Speaker 2: the first time around, and it's one with the imagery.
Speaker 2: The only thing I think you could really change is
Speaker 2: now you have a bunch of it's a very diverse ad,
Speaker 2: I'll put it that way. So it's diverse men as
Speaker 2: opposed to I think it was almost exclusively white in
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen. They're trying to go for the pan racial
Speaker 2: kind of male demographic, and if you look at the
Speaker 2: GOP commentariat, one of the things that they're driving home
Speaker 2: right now is we've got to get men that have
Speaker 2: got to come out and vote because of the historic
Speaker 2: gender gap, and that's a big bet that they're trying
Speaker 2: to make here. Traditionally, women do out vote man, although
Speaker 2: you know, turnout is down relative to twenty twenty, so
Speaker 2: they could still have some interesting surprises. But I thought
Speaker 2: it was vintage Trump. That's very much like a is
Speaker 2: the spectrum of we got to go back. I mean,
Speaker 2: if you think about it too, if you think about
Speaker 2: the affection that people still have for Donald Trump. One
Speaker 2: of the reasons why it's favorables are so much higher
Speaker 2: this time than last time. We see it was literally president,
Speaker 2: and it was president in the before times, mostly before COVID,
Speaker 2: and people remember fondly prices, a feeling of order. This
Speaker 2: is pre a lot of the crazy stuff that happened
Speaker 2: in COVID in twenty twenty one. They blame Biden for that.
Speaker 2: That's one of the reasons Biden so longer in the race.
Speaker 2: And you want to hit all of those notes of
Speaker 2: we got to take our country back from this chaotic period.
Speaker 2: So I think it was a smart ad. It's very
Speaker 2: American carnage. It's the opposite of like a quote unquote
Speaker 2: hopeful message.
Speaker 3: And if he does win, I think that will be
Speaker 3: a smart strategy.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And so the other thing I noticed about it is
Speaker 1: outside of the final images of Trump up on stage
Speaker 1: after the assassination attempt, it actually doesn't really have.
Speaker 3: Trump at all, which is smart actually, which.
Speaker 1: Is interesting too, you know, making a referendum on the
Speaker 1: Biden years. And one thing I'll say is, I don't
Speaker 1: know that the campaign has done as an effective job
Speaker 1: as they could trying to tie Kamala directly into the
Speaker 1: Biden record, and that was, you know, one of their
Speaker 1: main goals and jobs from the beginning, from when she
Speaker 1: was swapped in as candidate. But Trump, because he has
Speaker 1: zero message discipline and never has and never will, has
Speaker 1: not really like consistently prosecuted that case. So part of
Speaker 1: the effectiveness of that ad really hinges on how much
Speaker 1: were they able to tie her to a Biden record,
Speaker 1: which is undoubtedly unpopular. On the flip side, we've got
Speaker 1: the Kamala Harris closing ad. Let's take a listen to
Speaker 1: her final pitch to voters.
Speaker 4: Hannah, I'm here, Hanna and shakes my hand.
Speaker 9: How you Dylan gay and bring everybody back to And
Speaker 9: that's exactly how I feel.
Speaker 5: That's why I'm doing.
Speaker 9: Okay, you have to stay in touch with me, Okay,
Speaker 9: I'm very serious about that.
Speaker 3: Okay.
Speaker 9: Throughout this campaign, I've seen the best of America, and
Speaker 9: I've seen what is holding you back and weighing you down.
Speaker 9: High costs, fundamental rights taken away, and politics that have
Speaker 9: driven fear and division. You deserve better. As president, I'll
Speaker 9: bring a new generation of leadership. I'll take on price
Speaker 9: gouging and bring down the cost of groceries and housing
Speaker 9: and prescriptions.
Speaker 3: I'll fight for.
Speaker 9: Your freedom to make your own choices, and i will
Speaker 9: protect your healthcare and your benefits, not take them away.
Speaker 9: The vast majority of people in our country have so
Speaker 9: much more in common than what separates them. Good people,
Speaker 9: hard working people. We see in our fellow Americans, neighbors,
Speaker 9: not enemies. We believe in each other, we believe in
Speaker 9: our country.
Speaker 3: We're not falling for these folks who are trying to
Speaker 3: divide us together.
Speaker 9: We'll build a bright in future for our nation where
Speaker 9: we stand for freedom, we stand for justice, we stand
Speaker 9: for the dignity of work. We haven't yet quite reached
Speaker 9: all of those ideals, but we will die trying because we.
Speaker 3: Love our country.
Speaker 9: Now the baton is in our hands. I pledge to
Speaker 9: seek common sense solutions to make your life better, and
Speaker 9: I pledge to be a president for all Americans. Now
Speaker 9: I'm asking for your vote because as president, I will
Speaker 9: get up every day and fight for the American people.
Speaker 1: I'm Kamala Harris and I approved this message, so pretty significant.
Speaker 4: Contrast in the approach.
Speaker 3: The area literally died nine day right.
Speaker 1: This optimism, even the music is diametrically opposed. She's got
Speaker 1: this like aspirational optimistic score. It's direct to camera from her,
Speaker 1: she's speaking, I mean part of that and putting her
Speaker 1: behind the podium is again trying to help people to
Speaker 1: imagine her in that role as commander in chief. You
Speaker 1: have men and women represented there in that ad, which
Speaker 1: is you know, one thing that I've noted before soccer
Speaker 1: is Democrats have recognized.
Speaker 4: They've got an issue with men.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 1: I don't know that they've done everything they need to
Speaker 1: in terms of outreach, but they certainly have made some efforts,
Speaker 1: whereas the Trump campaign has really just decided like, Nope,
Speaker 1: we can't win over like the women who are concerned
Speaker 1: about abortion, they're gone. We can't win them over. We
Speaker 1: need to just really super serve this male base that
Speaker 1: we're hoping are going to ultimately turn out.
Speaker 3: I honestly agree with that.
Speaker 2: I don't think there as much you can do on
Speaker 2: the abortion issue, Like it is basically as binary as
Speaker 2: it gets. You're either supported or you don't. In terms
Speaker 2: of trying to win people over. If you look at
Speaker 2: opinion polling, you know, it is genuinely and always has
Speaker 2: the number one issue for a lot of these female voters,
Speaker 2: especially these newer female voters.
Speaker 3: But men are very different. They think about a lot
Speaker 3: of different stuff.
Speaker 2: That's another reason why that economy that ad for trum
Speaker 2: Trump was all about the economy, Kamma, it's a little
Speaker 2: bit more of you know, you get a message for everybody,
Speaker 2: you know, for the men who are with you kind
Speaker 2: of on abortion, but you got to give them some
Speaker 2: economy stuff, but you've got a heavy emphasis like I'll
Speaker 2: protect your freedoms. You know, they use that language a lot.
Speaker 2: It's interesting too, if you looked at that big January sixth,
Speaker 2: you know, retrospective rally that she had about democracy, the
Speaker 2: word freedom was everywhere in the comma L added and
Speaker 2: I took notice of that.
Speaker 3: I'm like, you know, this is actually kind of interesting.
Speaker 2: Yeah, in terms of the messaging, I've talked about the
Speaker 2: social libertarianism, how much more popular that is from democrats.
Speaker 2: It's supposed to like ninism, and the comfort stems from
Speaker 2: more of like a woke ideology. So it is interesting
Speaker 2: to see what is obviously popular, what is pulling on.
Speaker 2: I also note there's not a single message of I'm
Speaker 2: a woman and you should elect me.
Speaker 1: There was a little nod to it because she had that,
Speaker 1: you know, she said something like we haven't always lived
Speaker 1: up to rospiration. They have the picture of like the
Speaker 1: little black girl marching and the civil rights but that
Speaker 1: was it. Yeah, you know, it's funny that you read
Speaker 1: that your reaction to the Trump ad was that it
Speaker 1: was mostly about economics, because my reaction to it was
Speaker 1: mostly cultural.
Speaker 4: Well, because you've got.
Speaker 1: You know, they got to throw in the Algerian boxer
Speaker 1: is in there. They talk about, you know, your patriotism
Speaker 1: is labeled toxic. They sort of give this illusion to
Speaker 1: cancel culture and then you know the sense of like chaos.
Speaker 1: So to me it was heavier emphasis on cultural. Kama's
Speaker 1: ad was similar to what she tried to achieve in
Speaker 1: that speech at the Ellipse, which was yes, to make
Speaker 1: the case about like we got to come together, we
Speaker 1: got to put this you know this ugliness in our past.
Speaker 1: But also she got in there like you know, I'm
Speaker 1: going to go after the price gougers. I'm going to
Speaker 1: seek common sense economic solutions, blah blah blah. So trying
Speaker 1: to marry sort of that like democracy argument with the
Speaker 1: more populist parts of her economic pitch. So you know
Speaker 1: which is going to land. We're going to find out
Speaker 1: soon enough. And even if also these are the messages
Speaker 1: that these campaigns want to put out. That's the other
Speaker 1: big question is whether the paid communications really matter that
Speaker 1: much or whether it's more about the meta media narratives,
Speaker 1: which you know about that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I hold ex ploma about Madison Square Guards exactly,
Speaker 3: turning point right.
Speaker 2: We do have some other info we can share. So
Speaker 2: this literally just came out. I'm gonna mention it. Maybe
Speaker 2: we can edit it in in post production. But the
Speaker 2: final day schedules from the candidates are out. The final
Speaker 2: day schedule from Donald Trump will be Raleigh, North Carolina,
Speaker 2: Reading Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Grand Rapids, Michigan. Grand Rapids is
Speaker 2: the traditional last time site for Trump. It was his
Speaker 2: last rally in twenty sixteen, last and twenty twenty. Apparently
Speaker 2: he's superstitious because he thinks he won in twenty twenty,
Speaker 2: so he wants to.
Speaker 3: Do it the final day schedule.
Speaker 2: This tells you a lot from Harris Scranton, Allentown, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia,
Speaker 2: so last one BA, so all Pa, whereas Trump's got
Speaker 2: to shore things up in North Carolina. Two stops in PA,
Speaker 2: take notice, Pittsburgh, you know, reading and with the location
Speaker 2: of those, and then finally Grand Rapids. Last time Michigan
Speaker 2: really was such a huge win for him in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 2: That was one that they bet.
Speaker 3: The farm on.
Speaker 2: I remember, you know, so many arguments I had with
Speaker 2: people were like, there's no way Trump is going to
Speaker 2: win Michigan. I remember thinking that and it was like boom.
Speaker 2: In terms of what the true shock of the night was.
Speaker 2: We also should we remind people about Biden about his
Speaker 2: closing message.
Speaker 3: You guys see it highly affected. Do you guys want
Speaker 3: to see his closing message. Let's take a listen.
Speaker 8: This is the kind of guy you're like a smacking ash.
Speaker 4: So even the delivery of that is very like.
Speaker 3: He's going on there.
Speaker 2: You know, he's got the dimension stoneface, like every time
Speaker 2: he speaks, it's like his entire the facial, the mouth
Speaker 2: is moving, nothing else is going on up here.
Speaker 3: They're just blank behind the eyes.
Speaker 1: It's also I mean, he wanted to campaign for Kamala
Speaker 1: and kept reaching out and they just basically were like good, no,
Speaker 1: and he did that those comments.
Speaker 4: What was it that he said that?
Speaker 1: Uh oh, the garbage comment that caused such a problem
Speaker 1: he was supposed to do. I guess what they had
Speaker 1: relegated him to was like, Okay, you can do these
Speaker 1: zoom calls with some of the starget groups. We don't
Speaker 1: think that you can fuck that up too badly. But
Speaker 1: after the garbage comments, all of those.
Speaker 3: They cancel everything.
Speaker 4: They were all pulled.
Speaker 1: So even this very limited role that they felt safe
Speaker 1: having Joe Biden and do, at the end of the
Speaker 1: day they were like, no, sorry, we're even pulling the
Speaker 1: plug on that, which just I mean, it's just it's
Speaker 1: astonishing that this man is still the president.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 1: He can't be trusted to do a zoom surrogate call
Speaker 1: with people who already support the ticket, even that is
Speaker 1: to weight your responsibility for him, And yet he has
Speaker 1: the nuclear codes. There you go, case number example number three,
Speaker 1: thy five hundred and seventy two. Why the Kamlayers campaign
Speaker 1: is like, we're probably not going to be campaigning with
Speaker 1: you because this is just not help.
Speaker 2: Not only are we not campaigning with you, it's like
Speaker 2: we don't even want to mention you. We don't want
Speaker 2: to do with the Biden what administration, who you know
Speaker 2: in terms of totally ticket there, totally yeah. So anyway,
Speaker 2: let's put the next one up there. This is this
Speaker 2: is going to be very interesting. So I mentioned the
Speaker 2: Final Day analysis. Trump is rallying every single day until
Speaker 2: the election in North Carolina they say a swing state
Speaker 2: that he won twice, but that really indicates so I mean,
Speaker 2: both of these schedules we can read a lot into
Speaker 2: this Trump campaign. They're worried about North Carolina. They got
Speaker 2: him there every day all over the weekend. Final Day,
Speaker 2: They've got a state stop there in North Carolina. And
Speaker 2: the Harris campaign they're worried about PA. Four stops all
Speaker 2: in PA. Final stop in Philadelphia. They had a big
Speaker 2: ad that's been running all across the Philly area about
Speaker 2: how Philly like stands up for freedom and about democratic overperformance.
Speaker 2: They're betting the house on the mainline and on urban
Speaker 2: turnout there and they're hoping that that's going to be
Speaker 2: enough to stop what they see is the rural turnout
Speaker 2: in Western PA. That's exactly why, by the way, you
Speaker 2: have Trump there in Pittsburgh for his final stop to
Speaker 2: see where the two you know, demographics specifically of that
Speaker 2: big state, very very different populations even just across the state,
Speaker 2: and who they're trying to turn out for what is
Speaker 2: likely to be the tipping point in the election.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and both of those states are similar in terms
Speaker 1: of Electoral College votes. So Pennsylvania has nineteen, North Carolina
Speaker 1: has sixteen. So both of them, you know, significant prizes electorally,
Speaker 1: and you know, for either candidate, you know, if Kama
Speaker 1: can't win Pennsylvania, the map becomes pretty tough for her.
Speaker 1: North Carolina might be a decent substitute, and same for Trump,
Speaker 1: if he can't pull off North Carolina, state that you
Speaker 1: know he won twice, becomes a lot more challenging for
Speaker 1: him to be able to put together to seventy. Last
Speaker 1: element we have here is the closing schedule for Kamala Harris,
Speaker 1: going back a few days to show you know, the
Speaker 1: focus over really the past week. So Thursday, she was
Speaker 1: out in those Sun Belt states in Arizona, in Reno
Speaker 1: and Las Vegas, Nevada. Friday, woke up in Vegas, then
Speaker 1: headed to Milwaukee. On Saturday, she was in Georgia and
Speaker 1: North Carolina, and Sunday she was in Michigan and then,
Speaker 1: as Soccer was saying before, closing out the day with
Speaker 1: a series of rallies in that critical swing state of Pennsylvania.
Speaker 4: So that's what it looks like.
Speaker 3: That's it, folks. It's the closing day.
Speaker 2: You know, will give you all an update tomorrow, but
Speaker 2: a lot of the stuff tomorrow is just like b
Speaker 2: roll of people in line.
Speaker 3: You know, you'll have some speeches and they're.
Speaker 4: Trying to read the deal all the lines.
Speaker 1: Yeah, everything long and wherever, and that means such and
Speaker 1: such for so and so.
Speaker 3: And maybe the weather is bad. That's not bad.
Speaker 2: Weather actually has you know, that has statistically impacted turnout
Speaker 2: in the past, like especially that's part of the reason
Speaker 2: people want early vote.
Speaker 1: So much of the vote is cast early now that
Speaker 1: those like you know, election day like where the line
Speaker 1: blong kind of vibes are hard.
Speaker 2: To I think sixty million people have voted already, maybe
Speaker 2: even more actually, which is crazy. And we both voted
Speaker 2: early a lot of people have all my friends. Yeah, fun,
Speaker 2: should I wear my voting sticker? I saved it?
Speaker 3: Oh did you?
Speaker 4: Yeah? No, I didn't get on all right, it was
Speaker 4: long gone.
Speaker 1: But you're welcome to if you would like to promote
Speaker 1: our you know, doing your civic duty and casting your ballot,
Speaker 1: having your voice heard in whatever way that you choose.
Speaker 1: Let's get to this question over whether Donald Trump sort
Speaker 1: of October surprised himself with that people say, controversial rally
Speaker 1: at Madison Square Garden.
Speaker 4: Put this up on the screen. So this is this.
Speaker 1: Data scientist who I'm just gonna put my cards on
Speaker 1: the table. I don't credit his philosophy here very much
Speaker 1: because he relies on the like betting ons, he uses
Speaker 1: the betting odds and then has his own proprietary model
Speaker 1: to project what he thinks is going to happen in
Speaker 1: terms of the electoral college. But he has had some
Speaker 1: success in the past. So let's take a look at
Speaker 1: what this individual has to say.
Speaker 4: The headline here from Fortune.
Speaker 1: Which wrote up these data results are October surprise, Trump
Speaker 1: just blows huge lead and the Madison Square Garden Raley
Speaker 1: started the drop, says a top data scientist. They say,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is suffering a historic descent of the campaign's
Speaker 1: final days, an ongoing free fall that is turning what
Speaker 1: looked like a walkway for the former president into what's
Speaker 1: most likely a Kamala Harris victory. That is the view
Speaker 1: from Thomas Miller, data scientist at Northwestern University, who's proprietary
Speaker 1: models proven right on in past elections. And so basically
Speaker 1: what Miller takes a look at is not just his
Speaker 1: not just the betting markets, but then he's got his own,
Speaker 1: i don't know, special whatever that he applies to it.
Speaker 1: And he found that prior to Madison Square Garden, at
Speaker 1: the time when everybody was feeling like all the polls
Speaker 1: are tightening, and you know, polymarket had Trump is like
Speaker 1: a seventy percent favorite to win.
Speaker 4: Et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 1: He found it, according to his model, that Trump really
Speaker 1: was on track for a significant electoral college victory. And
Speaker 1: then that really falls off a cliff with Madison Square Garden.
Speaker 4: Tony Hinchcliff the.
Speaker 1: Other you know comments that were made at that the
Speaker 1: overall coverage of and vibe of that rally, and that
Speaker 1: Trump's odds really fell off a cliff after that, the
Speaker 1: quote here is Miller's numbers show a draw dropping swing
Speaker 1: to Harris that would have seemed unimaginable two weeks ago.
Speaker 1: And so, as I said Zager, like, I don't necessarily
Speaker 1: credit this model that much, because I don't know that
Speaker 1: I even buy that it's possible to have that dramatic
Speaker 1: of a swing at this point in the country's history,
Speaker 1: when voters are by and large pretty locked in about
Speaker 1: how they think about Roe versus Wade, how they think
Speaker 1: about Donald Trump, how they think about January sixth, et cetera.
Speaker 4: But I do think we have some.
Speaker 1: Additional data that pretty consistently shows that the bulk of
Speaker 1: the late deciders are to to break for Kamala Harris.
Speaker 1: And there's been a significant number of focus groups too,
Speaker 1: where undecided voters to describe the Madison Square Garden and
Speaker 1: the rhetoric there as kind of like the final straw
Speaker 1: that reminded them of all the things they didn't like
Speaker 1: about Donald Trump, and they just felt like they couldn't,
Speaker 1: you know, suck it up and vote for them, or
Speaker 1: you know, deal with that level of ugliness, chaos, et cetera,
Speaker 1: And so reminding of them of that in those final
Speaker 1: days really did kind of eat into his margins and
Speaker 1: cause some shift among those few late deciding voters towards coming.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean that's why I want to do this segment
Speaker 2: is Yeah, you know, it genuinely is a Ruschak test.
Speaker 2: Like for me, it seems psychotic that it's like, oh yeah,
Speaker 2: it's the msg Tony Hinchcliff joke. That's what put you
Speaker 2: over the edge, not all the other stuff that Trump
Speaker 2: has said. He's been in national life for almost what
Speaker 2: twelve years? Yeah, I mean if you go back, what
Speaker 2: birthurism started in twenty eleven? Is that correct? So that's
Speaker 2: thirteen years ago. So that's what put you over the edge,
Speaker 2: not even something in Trump's said. It was at is rally,
Speaker 2: and it was what other people were saying is rally. Okay,
Speaker 2: you know, frankly, you should have your head examine. But
Speaker 2: that is the big theory that the Harris campaign media
Speaker 2: wants us to believe it to and that's why I
Speaker 2: want to do it.
Speaker 3: I'm like, I don't buy this stuff at all.
Speaker 2: I just do not see how these quote unquote late
Speaker 2: deciders who are making up their mind are doing so
Speaker 2: based upon something then again, is not even Trump related
Speaker 2: per se. I think the only case that you could
Speaker 2: make that it is hurt Trump is the media coverage
Speaker 2: of it, if anything, and the ongoing discussion relative to
Speaker 2: any positive message that he's been able to put out there,
Speaker 2: which I think that's actually a fair one, right, which
Speaker 2: is that it could have people reminded of like, oh,
Speaker 2: is this what the Trump presidency is going to be
Speaker 2: like again? Or we just constantly going to have Fox
Speaker 2: and Friends segments about whether he what did he say
Speaker 2: about Mika Brazinski said she had like a shitty face left?
Speaker 3: Yes?
Speaker 2: Right, So it's like, is that what the presidency he's
Speaker 2: going to book like? Or is it going to be
Speaker 2: something that actually has to do with my own life?
Speaker 2: The data scientist stuff I thought was interesting because the
Speaker 2: thing is that this has been a big media talking point.
Speaker 2: Can we put C four please up on the screen?
Speaker 2: Is the Harris campaign is running with this wild They
Speaker 2: are claiming that absolutely MSG is what really pushed these
Speaker 2: late deciding voters to come home to the Democratic Party.
Speaker 2: They have put out say, say a quote significant advantage
Speaker 2: in these late deciding voters and that they have seen
Speaker 2: significant movement as like what is a two to one
Speaker 2: margin over the garbage thing. I saw what some quote
Speaker 2: that they had where somebody was even reacting to Trump
Speaker 2: in the garbage truck, and they're like, well, you know
Speaker 2: that only reminded me of the whole Puerto Rico situation.
Speaker 1: Well, they didn't even know about the Biden comments, so
Speaker 1: when they saw him in the garbage truck, they thought
Speaker 1: he was just like doubling down.
Speaker 3: Which, by the way, garbage island.
Speaker 2: Reminder two of what people in the median voter. They're
Speaker 2: not paying attention, you know, respected to people who's let's say,
Speaker 2: watch this show. But again, for me to believe it
Speaker 2: would be that there are all these Latinos out there
Speaker 2: who was like, I'm about to vote for Trump, but
Speaker 2: because of what Tony Hinchcliff said about Puerto Rico, that's
Speaker 2: an for me to come home.
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris, Sorry, I just.
Speaker 5: Don't buy it.
Speaker 2: I absolutely don't buy it at all. Even if you
Speaker 2: are straight up where to reaken, that's really enough for
Speaker 2: you to switch your vote seems nuts, especially if you're
Speaker 2: the type of person who's going to vote for Trump
Speaker 2: the first time. Anyway, It's just again ridiculous. But the
Speaker 2: data that they have, that's what they're claiming. The other reason,
Speaker 2: that's another reason that I suspect of it is it
Speaker 2: just seems all too cute, all too perfect for a
Speaker 2: media narrative they already hate anyway, and that we know
Speaker 2: love racism, conversation whatever for them to have this, And
Speaker 2: that's why the Harris campaign is leaking it to them.
Speaker 10: Now.
Speaker 2: Of course, you know, should we really take what the
Speaker 2: Harris campaign itself seriously?
Speaker 3: I take it just seriously.
Speaker 2: When the Trump people are like, we're seeing absolutely blowout
Speaker 2: turnout in New Hampshire, I'm like, no, you're not.
Speaker 3: You're not gonna win New Hampster.
Speaker 1: But what I'm looking at is actually the polling data
Speaker 1: that suggests like the New York Times Siana pole that
Speaker 1: we talked about earlier showed late breaking voters going, you know,
Speaker 1: lopsidedly towards Kamala Harris. There was a Univision you Go
Speaker 1: poll of Pennsylvania Latino voters. They did not like the
Speaker 1: common and they also had a huge divide in favor
Speaker 1: of Kamala Harris. She led Trump sixty four to thirty
Speaker 1: among Pennsylvania Latinos.
Speaker 4: So here's why I don't want to overstate it, right.
Speaker 1: But when Trump was at his best during his campaign,
Speaker 1: was and his poll numbers were the highest and he
Speaker 1: looked like he had the highest probability to win. Is
Speaker 1: when he was being relatively quiet, and it allowed his
Speaker 1: approval rating to improve. You know, where people have short
Speaker 1: term memories, and they kind of forgot, like some of
Speaker 1: the things about him that they really hated last time around.
Speaker 1: They kind of forgot, you know, some of the ugliness
Speaker 1: and the divisiveness and all of that stuff. And so
Speaker 1: you pair the fact that you got the Kamala Harris
Speaker 1: campaign prosecuting a case not just about like, oh, Trump's
Speaker 1: a fascist, but this guy's a divider, right, Like we're
Speaker 1: the ones that are going to put the country back
Speaker 1: together and we need to leave this ugliness in the past.
Speaker 1: And at the very time they're trying to prosecute that case,
Speaker 1: Trump and his campaign are out there on Madison Square
Speaker 1: Garden and with other comments, by the way, proving the
Speaker 1: point of all of this stuff you don't like about
Speaker 1: this guy, like it's still there here, it is on display,
Speaker 1: et cetera. So, yeah, one of the reasons Trump has
Speaker 1: really stayed in the game and had such a strong
Speaker 1: shot this time around is that his approval rating is
Speaker 1: significantly better than it was in the past. So you know,
Speaker 1: I think there's a reasonable case to be made that
Speaker 1: reminding people of their least favorite parts of his character
Speaker 1: traits here at the end has not served the campaign.
Speaker 1: And again, when you look at the actual pulling of
Speaker 1: late breaking voters, it does seem to pretty consistently show
Speaker 1: that they are moving towards Kamala Harris. So you know,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say it's like, oh, just because of this
Speaker 1: one joke. It's that the whole tenor of that rally
Speaker 1: fit into a Kamala Harris campaign narrative and was for
Speaker 1: some voters kind of like a final reminder or a
Speaker 1: final straw that really pushed them into the Harris camp.
Speaker 1: So in that way, you know, we're talking about small
Speaker 1: margins here, et cetera. I do think that it probably
Speaker 1: that it may have been if if Kamala Harris wins
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, we may look back
Speaker 1: at that rally and say that it did end up
Speaker 1: being consequential. It also came at a time when they
Speaker 1: were feeling really hyper, super confident and felt like they
Speaker 1: could kind of just like let it all hang out.
Speaker 1: And I'm not sure the voting public were excited about
Speaker 1: what that had to see.
Speaker 2: I think that's a convenient narrative for people who always
Speaker 2: want to get jazz uff about these things.
Speaker 3: I just don't believe it.
Speaker 2: I think if Kamala lose it, or so if Kamala wins,
Speaker 2: it can be all a portion all day. I really do.
Speaker 1: On the polling that shows late breaking voters going for her, like,
Speaker 1: do you do you buy that pulling out?
Speaker 2: Don't, because first of all, it's such a small sample. Second,
Speaker 2: like in the New York Times, Tanna, we're going crosstab
Speaker 2: diving on what like eight hundred to two thousand people.
Speaker 2: Even within that it's like, you know, the sample gets
Speaker 2: down to like a couple a dozen. Then we're talking
Speaker 2: about late breaking univision. I mean again, for Univision to
Speaker 2: be true, then the entire Latino realignment is fake. If
Speaker 2: sixty to thirty break is basically a twenty sixteen margin
Speaker 2: for a latinos So that you have to ask me,
Speaker 2: after eight years of watching this movement happen, do I
Speaker 2: believe that?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 2: Absolutely not, especially whenever we've seen previous Well, why aren't
Speaker 2: you telling me? In Philadelphia that the biggest movement was
Speaker 2: the Puerto Rican neighborhoods towards Trump. Okay, okay again, Like,
Speaker 2: if I want to put myself in the headspace Puerto
Speaker 2: Rican guy lives in Philly who supports Trump is the
Speaker 2: Tony Hinchcliff joke. That's really gonna be like, you know what,
Speaker 2: I'm supporting Kamala Harris, I just don't buy it. Like
Speaker 2: these are the type of people who hate political correctness.
Speaker 2: They're exactly the type people are on YouTube watching you know,
Speaker 2: Tony Hinchcliff comedy and think it's hilarious. Like that's the
Speaker 2: cultural milieu that if you're a Latino supporting Trump, that's
Speaker 2: kind of what you swim in is saying. You know,
Speaker 2: if we've seen the data, the vast majority of the
Speaker 2: Latino movement to the Republican Party started with Latin X
Speaker 2: that terminology of some four or five years ago and
Speaker 2: increasingly is moving along blue collar cultural lines away from
Speaker 2: political correctness. Was the exact type of people who get
Speaker 2: all spun up about Madison Square gardens. So you really
Speaker 2: would have to believe that the entire Latino shift and
Speaker 2: all that is fake. Now, look, it actually could be
Speaker 2: possible that it's all totally overstated. If there's a Harris landslide,
Speaker 2: it will be fake, and I you know, I'll eat
Speaker 2: it on the sock.
Speaker 3: We could do it again, just the.
Speaker 4: Lay other us of these times.
Speaker 1: So, they asked Pennsylvania Latino voters, generally speaking, do you
Speaker 1: feel Trump is disrespectful or respectful towards Latino community? Sixty
Speaker 1: four percent said disrespectful, twenty eight percent said respectful.
Speaker 4: They asked what is closest to.
Speaker 1: Your view about the remarks at Madison Square Garden by
Speaker 1: the Trump campaign. Sixty nine percent said they were more
Speaker 1: racist than humorous, seventeen percent said they were more humorous
Speaker 1: than racist. Another only fourteen percent actually so they hadn't
Speaker 1: heard enough about the remarks, which might be the most
Speaker 1: interesting number there. But you know, I find it to
Speaker 1: me it's not so hard to imagine that it's not
Speaker 1: just this vote. It's like that brings up, oh, I
Speaker 1: remember how he treated, you know, Puerto Ricans after Hurricane Maria.
Speaker 1: And there's a corollary to like the sense that some
Speaker 1: men have gotten from the Democratic side of I just
Speaker 1: feel like they don't want me, even want me in
Speaker 1: their coalition, Like I feel a sense of contempt, and
Speaker 1: course voters are going to pick up on that sense
Speaker 1: of like, oh this is this is not a club
Speaker 1: that I'm really ever going to be part of. So again,
Speaker 1: I don't want to overstate it, but I do think
Speaker 1: that there's something to the fact that, certainly, if you
Speaker 1: wanted to choose how you were going to close out
Speaker 1: the campaign, Madison Square Garden and some of the comments
Speaker 1: that Trump has made since then are not all that helpful. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so we have C two.
Speaker 3: Oh sorry, that's on Puerto Rico.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: C two, where Trump was, you know, asked about the
Speaker 1: you know, the the Puerto Rico joke. Now, his campaign
Speaker 1: thought this was a problem right away. They put on
Speaker 1: a statement trying to distance themselves from Tony Hinchcliffe. Trump,
Speaker 1: of course, though, he's you know, again totally incapable of
Speaker 1: any sort of message discipline. So he says, I didn't
Speaker 1: see any problem with it. Let's take listen to what
Speaker 1: he had to say.
Speaker 11: Well, I guess somebody put it on a comedian, any joke,
Speaker 11: here's a comedian a joke. You mentioned Puerto Rico. All
Speaker 11: of a sudden, the Democrat and they are good at
Speaker 11: this stuff. By the way, that's the only thing they're
Speaker 11: good at. They're no good at policy, they're no good
Speaker 11: at government. They're good at other things. They're very good
Speaker 11: at cheating. But other than that, they're not good at anything.
Speaker 11: So let me just so. They come up and a
Speaker 11: comedian put it early in the show as a filler.
Speaker 11: In all fairness, I guess he said some joke. I
Speaker 11: haven't heard the joke, but he said some joke and
Speaker 11: he mentioned Puerto Rico. All of a sudden, they come
Speaker 11: out with something about Puerto Rico. Nobody's been better to
Speaker 11: Puerto Rico than me. I saved Puerto Rico when they
Speaker 11: had they had some of the worst hurricanes. Really, bet
Speaker 11: I brought in the hospital ship, the mercy I bought
Speaker 11: in this massive hospital ship I brought is nobody in
Speaker 11: Puerto Rican's will tell you that nobody's done more for
Speaker 11: Puerto Rico than me.
Speaker 1: Classic Trump. Nobody's done more for Puerto Rico than me.
Speaker 1: He also made some comments at recent rally. I'll just
Speaker 1: playing for you. Part of it is talking about how,
Speaker 1: you know, he wouldn't mind so much if someone had
Speaker 1: to shoot through the fake news, and then the other
Speaker 1: part is him talking about how maybe he should never
Speaker 1: have left the White House even after he lost. Of course,
Speaker 1: he doesn't acknowledge that he lost the stick a lesson
Speaker 1: of that.
Speaker 10: I have a piece of glass over here, and I
Speaker 10: don't have a piece of last there, and I have
Speaker 10: this piece of glass here. But all we have really
Speaker 10: over here is the fake news, right, and to get
Speaker 10: me somebody would have to shoot through the fake news.
Speaker 10: And I don't mind that so much.
Speaker 5: I don't mind. I don't mind tho.
Speaker 3: Our country.
Speaker 5: The day that I left, I shouldn't have left.
Speaker 10: I mean, honestly, because we did so, we did so well,
Speaker 10: we had such a great So now, I mean, every
Speaker 10: polling booth has.
Speaker 11: Hundreds of lawyers standing there.
Speaker 10: It's all about the lawyers. Everybody's standing at lawyers. Nobody
Speaker 10: should have that.
Speaker 1: So in the closing week here much more of the
Speaker 1: focus has been on Madison Square Garden Trump's own comments,
Speaker 1: et cetera, highlighting some of his most off putting and
Speaker 1: most toxic traits. And so, you know, I don't think
Speaker 1: that's probably how the campaign when it's closed to I mean.
Speaker 2: Look, well, first of all, it's Trump's campaign, so he
Speaker 2: can close it how he wants. Now, the only problematic
Speaker 2: one electorally, I actually think was the last one about
Speaker 2: when not wanting to leave.
Speaker 3: That was the one.
Speaker 2: I mean, no one's going to cry for a joke
Speaker 2: about shooting through journalists like no one's going to be again.
Speaker 2: I don't believe all this Latino brujaja around Puerto Rico
Speaker 2: could be wrong, you know, totally willing to eat it
Speaker 2: if I am, we'll find out tomorrow. But the stop
Speaker 2: the steal was a big problem in Pennsylvania, and that
Speaker 2: actually is the one where you can see in terms
Speaker 2: of his message discipline, that's the one which always has
Speaker 2: hurt him the most. Doug Mastriano lost by such massive
Speaker 2: margin last time around. That that is the one actually
Speaker 2: where if you were an advisor or something, you would
Speaker 2: be cringing about not wanting to leave the White House
Speaker 2: because it was specifically that itself that turned a lot
Speaker 2: of people off in PA. People were already Republicans, and
Speaker 2: that also cost them to doctor oz His. I don't
Speaker 2: even remember a mess of an answer he had on
Speaker 2: stop it was bad even I remember that in the
Speaker 2: disastrous Spetterman debate, even that one stood out of like
Speaker 2: that was rough in terms of that iant I mean
Speaker 2: it probably was that up there with abortion. So you know,
Speaker 2: in terms of the two things that turned voters off,
Speaker 2: I think that that last clip was the most consequential
Speaker 2: because apparently this to say something he said a long time.
Speaker 3: I mean, look, it's just a bunch of bullshit talk.
Speaker 3: They did leave at the end of the day.
Speaker 2: But it's like, if you want to remind people of, like,
Speaker 2: genuinely one of the things that has turned the most
Speaker 2: voters off about you, that is the one which you
Speaker 2: would walk away from.
Speaker 3: But look, we'll see again.
Speaker 2: My theory on Trump is all the shit is just
Speaker 2: baked in at this point, especially for a lot of
Speaker 2: men who are out there, they laugh, you know, if
Speaker 2: the criticism, they're like, it's funny. They you know, the
Speaker 2: media bed wedding, they love it. There's nothing they love more.
Speaker 2: They want the jokes, play it, you know, let's spread
Speaker 2: them around. They think it's hilarious. Now, big question is
Speaker 2: whether they're going to vote. And I do think it's
Speaker 2: a very open question. If there's a Harris landslide and
Speaker 2: it's because of the what is it, the hidden women
Speaker 2: effect or something like.
Speaker 3: That, there should be a male reassessment.
Speaker 2: There should be some there should be some therapizing that
Speaker 2: is happening in the male community. I mean, I've been
Speaker 2: trying to lead the charge on this by just saying,
Speaker 2: if your wife is afraid to tell you who they
Speaker 2: are voting for, you are a loser.
Speaker 3: And it means that you have let me tell you
Speaker 3: that