WEBVTT - Don't Panic

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<v Speaker 1>All Zone Media.

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<v Speaker 2>Robert Evans here and this is It Could Happen here,

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<v Speaker 2>a podcast about things falling apart, and boy, they sure

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<v Speaker 2>seem to be, don't they. The twenty twenty four election

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<v Speaker 2>is terrifying a lot of people at this stage after

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<v Speaker 2>a disastrous debate performance by Joe Biden, And this episode

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<v Speaker 2>will be coming out on the Monday that the Republican

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<v Speaker 2>National Convention starts in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. A lot of people

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<v Speaker 2>are terrified about a Trump dictatorship, about Project twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 2>five and all that that entails. And I want to

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<v Speaker 2>tell you first off, you know, we will be having

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of coverage from the convention. Garrison, Sophie and

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<v Speaker 2>I are all going to be there all week. We'll

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<v Speaker 2>start dropping our convention episodes on Wednesday and Thursday and Friday,

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<v Speaker 2>and then we'll probably have some summary content after that

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<v Speaker 2>the next week. So we will be getting you our

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<v Speaker 2>experiences here and everything that we encounter on the ground

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<v Speaker 2>during what I think is going to wind up a

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<v Speaker 2>pretty important week for the American fascist movement. But right now,

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<v Speaker 2>what I want to address is the sense of kind

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<v Speaker 2>of unbridled terror that I've seen for a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>people around me, not just leftists, but regular people that

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<v Speaker 2>I know in my life, folks who are just kind

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<v Speaker 2>of like casual democrats, not the kind to think much

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<v Speaker 2>about politics, but have suddenly seen the potential of what

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<v Speaker 2>a Trump second term might bring with it and are

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<v Speaker 2>rightfully terrified. So I want to first off, tell everyone

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<v Speaker 2>in that bucket, don't panic. That's what this episode is about.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm going to try and give you some good

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<v Speaker 2>reasons not to panic, some reasons why our situation is

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<v Speaker 2>not as dire as it seems. And my goal here

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<v Speaker 2>is not to lull you into an action or stop

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<v Speaker 2>you from preparing. You should, in fact be preparing, And

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<v Speaker 2>we talk about the various things you can do organizing

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<v Speaker 2>in your community, taking action to support migrants, to support

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<v Speaker 2>each other, to support your LGBTQ friends, women seeking reproductive justice.

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<v Speaker 2>That's our daily bread and butter. Right now, I want

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<v Speaker 2>to give you some reasons for optimism about victory and

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<v Speaker 2>the overall struggle against these fucking maniacs. So, as most

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<v Speaker 2>regular listeners will know, back in the spring of twenty nineteen,

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<v Speaker 2>I published the first season of It Could Happen Here,

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<v Speaker 2>which was originally a scripted podcast about the very real

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<v Speaker 2>possibility of a civil conflict in the United States. The

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<v Speaker 2>years since have proven several of my predictions painfully accurate.

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<v Speaker 2>I started the series with fictional vignettes from the perspective

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<v Speaker 2>of an American civilian watching American tanks roll through the

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<v Speaker 2>streets of their city. Within a year, thousands and thousands

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<v Speaker 2>of listeners had variants of that exact experience thanks to

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<v Speaker 2>the George Floyd uprisings. I was humbled and more than

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<v Speaker 2>a little frightened by the response that some people had

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<v Speaker 2>to the first iteration of it could happen here. During

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty, while I was on the ground in four

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<v Speaker 2>different states, dozens and dozens of people told me the

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<v Speaker 2>series had influenced their own choices for how to act

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<v Speaker 2>and organize on the ground with their friends out in

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<v Speaker 2>the world. And that is humbling and a little bit frightening.

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<v Speaker 2>And I promise you I'm not laying this out to

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<v Speaker 2>brag or try to make an argument from authority. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>not saying I predicted something five years ago and was right,

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<v Speaker 2>so you should listen to what I have to predict now.

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<v Speaker 2>In fact, I kind of want to do the opposite

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<v Speaker 2>because in another podcast, I recorded in twenty nineteen on

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<v Speaker 2>the anti Vaxx movement. This would have been an episode

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<v Speaker 2>of Behind the Bastards. I laid out a theoretical pandemic,

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<v Speaker 2>and I described it spreading almost exactly the way the

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<v Speaker 2>COVID nineteen pandemic really did spread. Just a few months later.

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<v Speaker 2>And yet, in February of twenty twenty, when COVID nineteen

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<v Speaker 2>had been confirmed to have entered the United States and

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<v Speaker 2>was spreading over other parts of the world like wildfire,

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<v Speaker 2>I had friends ask me what I thought was going

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<v Speaker 2>to happen, and, you know, thinking back to SARS, thinking

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<v Speaker 2>back to bird flu, thinking back to the Ebola, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>epidemic in twenty fourteen. My answer was, I don't know.

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<v Speaker 2>It'll be fine, right, someone, surely there's some adults out

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<v Speaker 2>there who were gonna, you know, lock this thing down.

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<v Speaker 2>They're not just gonna let it run rampant over the population. Right.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a term for what happened to me there, and

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<v Speaker 2>it's called normalcy bias. Normalcy bias is the tendency to

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<v Speaker 2>assume that whatever has gone down in the past will

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<v Speaker 2>keep happening, often despite evidence to the contrary. Something like

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<v Speaker 2>eighty percent of people display attributes of delusional thinking caused

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<v Speaker 2>by the normalcy bias during disasters. Emergency responders sometimes called

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<v Speaker 2>this negative panic. We got a great example of negative

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<v Speaker 2>panic a couple of weeks ago. Video went viral of

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<v Speaker 2>a bowl that got loose during a rodeo in rural Oregon,

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<v Speaker 2>and it started just just absolutely goring random yocals who

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<v Speaker 2>were like wandering around in between chiro stands and beer

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<v Speaker 2>cards behind sort of the stands, and a few of

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<v Speaker 2>these people had the presence of mind to run. One

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<v Speaker 2>guy even pulled a gun. And I don't know entirely

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<v Speaker 2>how we want to rate that as a response, but

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of folks just stared at the bowl, which

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<v Speaker 2>is blank looks on their faces, utterly uncomprehended. You can

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<v Speaker 2>tell from their body language that they just couldn't believe

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<v Speaker 2>what they were seeing. And some of those people got

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<v Speaker 2>rammed right in the fucking gut by a bull a

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<v Speaker 2>second later. The immediate danger that their eyes were telling

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<v Speaker 2>them was there just seemed too far fetched to take seriously.

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<v Speaker 2>The normalcy bias is an important cognitive error, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>just one of the cognitive errors that regularly pushes mankind

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<v Speaker 2>towards catastrophes. And while we're on that subject, I should

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<v Speaker 2>warn those of you who'd like to try their hand

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<v Speaker 2>at predicting the future of a separate cognitive delusion catastrophizing.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the tendency to assume that the absolute worst

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<v Speaker 2>case scenario will come to pass, and it's often a

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<v Speaker 2>trauma reaction. When you've been blown up, you kind of

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<v Speaker 2>always expect the world to blow up around you. If

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<v Speaker 2>you've been in a relationship with someone who blows up,

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<v Speaker 2>who screams or gets violent or threatens to kill themselves

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<v Speaker 2>during arguments, you might find yourself expecting that from anyone

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<v Speaker 2>else that you did, even if they've never displayed that

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<v Speaker 2>kind of behavior. And if you've watched an in the

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<v Speaker 2>bag sheer thing presidential election collapse and usher in a

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<v Speaker 2>new era of fascist political capture in your country, well

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<v Speaker 2>you might see that kind of thing happening and expect

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<v Speaker 2>it whenever the polls open up again. The tricky part

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<v Speaker 2>of actually predicting the future with any accuracy, which is

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<v Speaker 2>a thing that I have been both professionally successful at

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<v Speaker 2>and personally bad at doing, is balancing your normalcy bias

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<v Speaker 2>with your catastrophizing This is easier said than done, and

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<v Speaker 2>I have noticed that my effort to reach this state

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<v Speaker 2>has produced some peculiar cognitive effects of late. In the

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<v Speaker 2>six months that led up to the first presidential debate,

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<v Speaker 2>I felt constant growing anxiety about a second Trump term.

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<v Speaker 2>Only some of my anxiety was based on polling, which

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<v Speaker 2>didn't look great for Biden, but wasn't apocalyptic either. I

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<v Speaker 2>was anxious because I saw so many people around me,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm not talking about folks on Twitter, but in

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<v Speaker 2>the real world, go, well, obviously Biden's got a win,

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<v Speaker 2>there's no way Trump gets elected again, and go about

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<v Speaker 2>their day. Then the debate happened. Joe went on stage,

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<v Speaker 2>barely able to speak at a legible volume, coughing, slurring

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<v Speaker 2>his words, and dropping into tangents. Rather than making cogent

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<v Speaker 2>cases to the country. Everyone around me started to get

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<v Speaker 2>terrified all at once, and the mainstream media did what

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<v Speaker 2>it does and pivoted to round the clock coverage of

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<v Speaker 2>the issue of Biden's competency. You know, some people have

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<v Speaker 2>alleged that this is because the media has some sort

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<v Speaker 2>of an agenda here, and I really don't credit the

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<v Speaker 2>media as someone who has spent his life working adjacent

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<v Speaker 2>to the mainstream media with that kind of capacity to plan.

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<v Speaker 2>What these people, what these reporters, what these news organs

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<v Speaker 2>were doing, was pivoting to the issue that was doing

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<v Speaker 2>the most to raise our collective blood pressure, because, among

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<v Speaker 2>other things, that's what social media has trained them to do,

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<v Speaker 2>because that's where the fucking money is, right, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>not that this issue didn't exist before that If it bleeds,

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<v Speaker 2>it leads has been a long time axiom in the field.

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<v Speaker 2>But that's what's happening here too, right, And because the

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<v Speaker 2>money is in saying and talking about the things that

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<v Speaker 2>gets people's blood pumping the most. The question of is

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<v Speaker 2>Joe Biden doomed soon yielded to is democracy doomed, as

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<v Speaker 2>analysts and pundits started hyping up Project twenty twenty five,

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<v Speaker 2>a blueprint for fascist takeover of the US, published by

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<v Speaker 2>the Heritage Foundation last year. Now, I am not a polster,

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<v Speaker 2>and I don't claim debase any of what I say

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<v Speaker 2>next on some kind of mathematic expertise. But I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think we're doomed. I don't think fascist takeover is inevitable,

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<v Speaker 2>even in the likely event that Biden loses, And I

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<v Speaker 2>think our position is a lot stronger than most people realize.

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<v Speaker 2>This is why right wing influencers and strategists have started

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<v Speaker 2>going so hard on rhetoric that makes them sound like

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<v Speaker 2>fucking Cobra commander. The best example of how mask off

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<v Speaker 2>the fascist right has gotten is Kevin Roberts, president of

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<v Speaker 2>the Heritage Foundation, who said this during a recent press conference.

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<v Speaker 3>The reason that so many anchors on MSNB, for example,

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<v Speaker 3>are losing their minds daily is because our side is winning.

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<v Speaker 3>And so I come full circle in this response and

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<v Speaker 3>just want to encourage you with some substance that we

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<v Speaker 3>are in the process of the Second American Revolution, which

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<v Speaker 3>will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.

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<v Speaker 2>Another of these guys is Jack Pasobc, a former Navy

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<v Speaker 2>intelligence officer turned to supplement salesman and fascist political philosopher.

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<v Speaker 2>Jack spoke on a panel hosted by Steve Bannon for

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<v Speaker 2>Seapak where he said this, but.

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<v Speaker 4>I just wanted to say, welcome to the end of democracy.

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<v Speaker 4>We're here to overthrow it completely. We didn't get all

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<v Speaker 4>the way there on January sixth, but we will endeavor

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<v Speaker 4>to get rid of it and replace it with this

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<v Speaker 4>right here. We'll replace it with this amen.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, I should note, folks, when he says this, right here,

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<v Speaker 2>he's holding up a cross necklace on a change. Jack's

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<v Speaker 2>not a subtle man, but he does speak for a

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<v Speaker 2>frighteningly large and influential block of Republicans. Both of these

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<v Speaker 2>guys are end results of eighty years of conspiracy theories

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<v Speaker 2>and hate speech funded by generations of wealthy businessmen and

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<v Speaker 2>their fail sons, and at this point fail grandsons. The

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<v Speaker 2>mainstream media and most voters in this country did their

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<v Speaker 2>best to ignore these guys for far too long. Now

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<v Speaker 2>they're pounding on the doors to the halls of power,

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<v Speaker 2>mouths watering, dishard, guns loaded, and people are freaking out.

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<v Speaker 2>Biden's poor debate performance and the minor civil war within

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<v Speaker 2>the Democratic Party over whether he should remain the candidate

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<v Speaker 2>has zeroed a magnifying glass on these people now. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 2>Jack and his fellow fascists have been poking on the

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<v Speaker 2>fringes of the American right four years. There Nothing they're

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<v Speaker 2>saying is new, but Trump's likely victory in the Supreme

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<v Speaker 2>Court's recent ruling on executive immunity have led a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of people to conclude that project twenty twenty five is

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's plan to execute as soon as he takes office.

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<v Speaker 2>This is something guys like Pasobic and Roberts want you

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<v Speaker 2>to believe because they want you terrified, hiding, shrieking away

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<v Speaker 2>from confrontation. Like all fascists, they have an instinctive understanding

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<v Speaker 2>that if they can just convince you that the fight

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<v Speaker 2>is already lost, they win. This is why Jack has

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<v Speaker 2>spent the last two weeks since the debate quote tweeting

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<v Speaker 2>every left wing media person he can find and saying

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<v Speaker 2>six months to insinuate they'll be dead or in camps

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<v Speaker 2>after Trump's inevitable victory. He wants you to panic. Jack

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<v Speaker 2>is a veteran, and while he was not a great soldier,

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<v Speaker 2>he is familiar with some very basic concepts of military strategy.

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<v Speaker 2>One of them that I bring up often because I

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<v Speaker 2>think it illustrates something important is the ODE loop. This

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<v Speaker 2>is the process by which people make decisions and act

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<v Speaker 2>in combat situations, and it stands for the different stages

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<v Speaker 2>of this process are observe, orient, decide. Act. If you

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<v Speaker 2>can disrupt any part of the ODE loop, you can

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<v Speaker 2>stop an opponent from taking effective action, from deciding, or

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<v Speaker 2>from carrying out their actions. Jack and his peers want

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<v Speaker 2>you to panic. They want you to make plans to

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<v Speaker 2>leave the country, to go to ground, to hide all

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<v Speaker 2>evidence of your political sympathies. Ideally, and I don't make

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<v Speaker 2>this allegation likely, he wants you to commit suicide. He

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<v Speaker 2>wants you to feel hopeless. He wants you to believe

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<v Speaker 2>that nothing matters any longer, because what matters most to

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<v Speaker 2>him is that you and people like you are out

0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:19.120
<v Speaker 2>of the picture. You know, either dead or so scared

0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:22.280
<v Speaker 2>that you are disrupted from acting in any concerted way

0:12:22.320 --> 0:12:26.760
<v Speaker 2>against him and his friends. Now, my job, as a

0:12:26.760 --> 0:12:29.400
<v Speaker 2>semi professional Cassandra, and as a guy who reports in

0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:32.280
<v Speaker 2>the far right, is to tell you this, a Trump

0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:37.160
<v Speaker 2>dictatorship is not inevitable. These fucks are weaker than they look,

0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:40.760
<v Speaker 2>and we will talk about all of that after some ads.

0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:55.600
<v Speaker 2>We're back now. I am not primarily an election guy,

0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:58.559
<v Speaker 2>and my work has never focused on the horse race stuff.

0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:00.880
<v Speaker 2>The polls are bad for byis, and I have no

0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:03.439
<v Speaker 2>interest in trying to elude anyone to thinking there's all

0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:06.720
<v Speaker 2>some big nationwide polling error. The only thing I will

0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:10.320
<v Speaker 2>say about the Democratic Party's actual electoral chances is to

0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:14.200
<v Speaker 2>note gently that online discourse has somewhat inflated the polling

0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:17.160
<v Speaker 2>fallout from the debate. Trump is now the odds on

0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:19.480
<v Speaker 2>bet but if you average the swing state polls, he

0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:22.040
<v Speaker 2>and Biden are generally within the margin of error pretty

0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:24.880
<v Speaker 2>much everywhere. Now you're going to get a different analysis

0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:27.480
<v Speaker 2>depending on which pole expert you trust. The new guys

0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:29.680
<v Speaker 2>at five thirty eight still have it mostly as a

0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:33.040
<v Speaker 2>coin flip, although one that slightly favors Trump. Nate Silver

0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:36.200
<v Speaker 2>himself gives Biden under a thirty percent chance, which is

0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:39.440
<v Speaker 2>terrible and also about where Trump was in November of

0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:42.480
<v Speaker 2>twenty sixteen, and we all do know how that election ended.

0:13:42.800 --> 0:13:46.480
<v Speaker 2>People are often very bad at understanding probabilities, but saying

0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:49.160
<v Speaker 2>he's got a twenty nine percent chance of winning doesn't

0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:51.000
<v Speaker 2>mean it's impossible for him to win.

0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:51.400
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:54.160
<v Speaker 2>The situation is serious, but the future is not written,

0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:56.560
<v Speaker 2>and you should remember that, for good and for ill,

0:13:57.320 --> 0:14:00.400
<v Speaker 2>the final results of this whole thing will come down

0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:03.800
<v Speaker 2>probably to one hundred thousand voters or so in five

0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:07.120
<v Speaker 2>or six states. Now, it's also worth me saying this.

0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:10.880
<v Speaker 2>Both of these candidates are old men, and statistically it

0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:13.840
<v Speaker 2>would not be unheard of or weird. If one of

0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:17.360
<v Speaker 2>them was dead before the election, Joe Biden could still

0:14:17.400 --> 0:14:19.120
<v Speaker 2>lose in a palace coup from the rest of his

0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:22.360
<v Speaker 2>party and get replaced. Anything can happen, and in US

0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:27.360
<v Speaker 2>politics it often does. Hey, everyone, Robert here. Two days

0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.480
<v Speaker 2>after I wrote this, something happened. There was an assassination

0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:34.400
<v Speaker 2>attempt against former President Trump. I am recording this a

0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:37.880
<v Speaker 2>couple of hours after it happened. A lot is unclear

0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:40.040
<v Speaker 2>at the moment, other than that somebody shot at him.

0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:42.880
<v Speaker 2>It looks like he was wounded with from glass shrapnel

0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:45.880
<v Speaker 2>when the teleprompter is hit. That Secret Service is currently

0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:49.520
<v Speaker 2>claiming a shooter appears to have been outside the venue

0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:52.400
<v Speaker 2>on a roof. Not much more I can say at

0:14:52.400 --> 0:14:55.240
<v Speaker 2>this point. I will note again there's a lot of

0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:58.400
<v Speaker 2>catastrophizing going on, people saying like, oh, this means he's

0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:01.640
<v Speaker 2>definitely gonna win reelection. When Reagan got shot that Trump,

0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:05.080
<v Speaker 2>you know, rocketed him to a reelection victory. You know,

0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:08.080
<v Speaker 2>that's possible, that could be what happens here. That's definitely

0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:10.160
<v Speaker 2>a solid case to be made for that that's what

0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:13.320
<v Speaker 2>happened with Reagan. But that's not always what happens when

0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:17.840
<v Speaker 2>there are assassination attempts against sitting or former presidents. On

0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:22.200
<v Speaker 2>September twenty second, nineteen seventy five, Sarah Jane Moore, a

0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:26.640
<v Speaker 2>member of the Manson Family cult, attempted to assassinate President

0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:30.840
<v Speaker 2>Ford with a thirty eight revolver. He did not win reelection.

0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:35.160
<v Speaker 2>So you know, that's just as a note, like sometimes

0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:37.760
<v Speaker 2>what happens, it's impossible to say what's going to happen

0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:42.320
<v Speaker 2>with this, but if you're looking to past us history

0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:45.960
<v Speaker 2>for president, you're still kind of in a situation where, well,

0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:49.600
<v Speaker 2>really unclear what's going to go down. Now that's all

0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:51.440
<v Speaker 2>the horse race stuff I'm going to subject you to.

0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:54.040
<v Speaker 2>We are now going to move forward with the rest

0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:58.000
<v Speaker 2>of this episode trying to answer this question what happens

0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:01.200
<v Speaker 2>if Trump wins. Going to give you some very good

0:16:01.280 --> 0:16:04.240
<v Speaker 2>reasons not to freak the fuck out. The first has

0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:07.760
<v Speaker 2>to do with Project twenty twenty five. In short, this

0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:11.160
<v Speaker 2>Heritage Foundation document maps out a path to place the

0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:16.000
<v Speaker 2>whole federal bureaucracy under President Trump's control, effectively ending separation

0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:19.320
<v Speaker 2>of church and state, utilizing law enforcement to go after dissidents,

0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:23.480
<v Speaker 2>making recreational sects illegal, and criminalizing daily life for millions

0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:26.760
<v Speaker 2>of LGBT Americans. In short, it is a roadmap to

0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:30.080
<v Speaker 2>Christian dictatorship. Now I'm not going to tell you shouldn't

0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:33.160
<v Speaker 2>find this chilling, but let's be clear about what Project

0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:35.800
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty five is. It is a nine hundred page

0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:38.360
<v Speaker 2>document written by a think tank that has lost a

0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:41.000
<v Speaker 2>lot of its influence and access to power over the

0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:45.040
<v Speaker 2>last ten years. The Heritage Foundation was once, as Molly

0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:48.320
<v Speaker 2>Ball described in an article for The Atlantic, the intellectual

0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:52.200
<v Speaker 2>backbone of the conservative movement. But during the Obama years,

0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:55.040
<v Speaker 2>the tremendous influence of the Heritage Foundation started to get

0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:59.000
<v Speaker 2>pruned back by establishment Republicans because it became clear that

0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:01.120
<v Speaker 2>in a lot of ways, these guys were dangerously out

0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:03.520
<v Speaker 2>of step with voters and kind of hard to work with.

0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:06.760
<v Speaker 2>The pullback actually began in twenty fourteen, when the Heritage

0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:10.080
<v Speaker 2>Foundation was suddenly banned from the Republicans Study Committee Retreat

0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:13.280
<v Speaker 2>over a conflict around a farm bill. Now, the think

0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:17.359
<v Speaker 2>tank remained influential, but its decline accelerated after Trump took office.

0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:19.359
<v Speaker 2>Some of this was the result of the fact that

0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:22.840
<v Speaker 2>conservative tanks have seen a general decline in influence from

0:17:22.880 --> 0:17:25.399
<v Speaker 2>the good old days the height of their power. The

0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:28.560
<v Speaker 2>Republican Party has won the popular vote in exactly one

0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:31.159
<v Speaker 2>election this century, and as of twenty twenty two, we

0:17:31.240 --> 0:17:34.240
<v Speaker 2>have seen them go through two disastrous midterm elections in

0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:38.720
<v Speaker 2>a row and one disastrous, losing presidential election. Now, there's

0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:41.760
<v Speaker 2>an interesting piece of reporting on the Heritage Foundation's decline

0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:44.719
<v Speaker 2>from twenty twenty two by the Washington Posts Jeff Stein

0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:48.720
<v Speaker 2>and Yegana Torbati. They quote one conservative on Capitol Hill

0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:51.359
<v Speaker 2>as saying people do not walk around in fear of

0:17:51.400 --> 0:17:53.640
<v Speaker 2>the Heritage Foundation the way they did ten years ago.

0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:56.080
<v Speaker 2>And the main reason why is because Trump and the

0:17:56.119 --> 0:17:59.480
<v Speaker 2>people around him were gaining a lot more influence. Right,

0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:02.159
<v Speaker 2>these old things tankers just didn't hold the juice that

0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:05.640
<v Speaker 2>they used to. Now, that article was published in response

0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:07.760
<v Speaker 2>to a switch in leadership for the think tank, which

0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:10.520
<v Speaker 2>is how Kevin Roberts wound up in the position he occupies,

0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:14.000
<v Speaker 2>and why the Heritage Foundation pivoted from focusing on economic

0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:16.720
<v Speaker 2>concerns to shit like stoking panic over the existence of

0:18:16.760 --> 0:18:20.280
<v Speaker 2>trans people, critical race theory, all the culture war stuff

0:18:20.320 --> 0:18:24.000
<v Speaker 2>that we have been bombarded with now for years. This

0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:26.920
<v Speaker 2>is shit that fires up a chunk of the Republican base,

0:18:27.160 --> 0:18:29.880
<v Speaker 2>but the last three election cycles have shown it's dog

0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:33.720
<v Speaker 2>shit at getting regular Americans on board, because regular Americans

0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:35.640
<v Speaker 2>look at this stuff and go while these people are

0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:39.040
<v Speaker 2>fucking out of their minds. I think the near panic

0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:43.160
<v Speaker 2>around Project twenty twenty five is potentially useful. It has

0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:45.880
<v Speaker 2>the potential to line a lot of voters up, and

0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:50.080
<v Speaker 2>crucially not for Joe Biden or for the Democrats, but

0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:53.679
<v Speaker 2>against a Republican party that has almost entirely yielded to

0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:56.840
<v Speaker 2>the fascists in its midst But I also see a

0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:59.480
<v Speaker 2>lot of people describing Project twenty twenty five as Trump's

0:18:59.480 --> 0:19:02.080
<v Speaker 2>plan for when he takes office, and that's just not

0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:04.440
<v Speaker 2>what it is. These people will note that a lot

0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:07.520
<v Speaker 2>of former Trump people have worked for the Heritage Foundation,

0:19:07.640 --> 0:19:09.919
<v Speaker 2>to which I say, he hates a lot of the

0:19:09.960 --> 0:19:13.520
<v Speaker 2>people who worked with him the last administration. Around this

0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:17.240
<v Speaker 2>is very common knowledge. Some people will also point out

0:19:17.240 --> 0:19:20.160
<v Speaker 2>recently unearthed video of the director of Project twenty twenty

0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:22.480
<v Speaker 2>five back in twenty twenty three telling a right wing

0:19:22.520 --> 0:19:25.680
<v Speaker 2>podcaster that Trump was very bought in with Project twenty

0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:28.800
<v Speaker 2>twenty five. And maybe that's true, but I don't feel

0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:31.840
<v Speaker 2>like you should necessarily believe this guy isn't just tooting

0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:35.760
<v Speaker 2>his own horn. Now. That kind of belief, though, does

0:19:35.840 --> 0:19:39.879
<v Speaker 2>merge with statements you'll see from prominent progressive media figures,

0:19:39.880 --> 0:19:42.520
<v Speaker 2>people like Chris Hayes, who recently tweeted A big reason

0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:44.959
<v Speaker 2>Project twenty twenty five is so salient is because the

0:19:45.000 --> 0:19:48.560
<v Speaker 2>actual Trump campaign has essentially zero policy apparatus and the

0:19:48.560 --> 0:19:53.280
<v Speaker 2>platform is just Trump social posts strung together. Now, I

0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:55.960
<v Speaker 2>like Chris, and I agree that it is important to

0:19:56.040 --> 0:19:58.560
<v Speaker 2>set the stakes here for voters and to talk about

0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:02.439
<v Speaker 2>Project twenty twenty five because it's fucked up and we

0:20:02.480 --> 0:20:05.200
<v Speaker 2>should do something about the fact that these people feel

0:20:05.240 --> 0:20:09.280
<v Speaker 2>confident putting out open plans to in democracy and institute

0:20:09.280 --> 0:20:14.199
<v Speaker 2>a Christian nationalist dictatorship. But what Chris says is not

0:20:14.400 --> 0:20:18.080
<v Speaker 2>strictly accurate because Trump has a platform and it might

0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:20.680
<v Speaker 2>have been influenced by Project twenty twenty five. I think

0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:24.639
<v Speaker 2>it probably was. But his platform is called Agenda forty seven,

0:20:24.720 --> 0:20:26.520
<v Speaker 2>and we have covered it on it could happen here

0:20:26.600 --> 0:20:30.840
<v Speaker 2>our daily news program. This is something you should care about. Trump.

0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:34.760
<v Speaker 2>In his Agenda forty seven plans, Trump advocates for mass

0:20:34.760 --> 0:20:37.919
<v Speaker 2>deportations of migrants for an attack on the legal rights

0:20:37.920 --> 0:20:41.040
<v Speaker 2>of the press and potentially the imprisonment of his political enemies.

0:20:41.200 --> 0:20:44.359
<v Speaker 2>He threatens the use of special forces and airstrikes against

0:20:44.400 --> 0:20:47.840
<v Speaker 2>cartels on Mexico's sovereign soil. There's a lot of crazy

0:20:47.880 --> 0:20:51.359
<v Speaker 2>shit in Agenda forty seven. This is very serious stuff,

0:20:51.640 --> 0:20:55.400
<v Speaker 2>and it is crucially the stuff Donald Trump has promised

0:20:55.440 --> 0:20:58.760
<v Speaker 2>to do if he gets elected. Now, a few days

0:20:58.800 --> 0:21:01.480
<v Speaker 2>before I wrote this, a former president took to truth

0:21:01.520 --> 0:21:05.879
<v Speaker 2>Social to officially disavow Project twenty twenty five. Now, do

0:21:05.960 --> 0:21:08.159
<v Speaker 2>I think he's lying? Do I think he was aware

0:21:08.160 --> 0:21:09.879
<v Speaker 2>of it? Do I think he cribbed some of it

0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:13.200
<v Speaker 2>for Ajenda forty seven. Yeah, He's Donald Trump. He lies

0:21:13.240 --> 0:21:16.159
<v Speaker 2>all the fucking time. But I do think it's noteworthy

0:21:16.359 --> 0:21:19.919
<v Speaker 2>that he feels a need to publicly and vociferously disavow

0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:22.720
<v Speaker 2>Project twenty twenty five. And this is part of a

0:21:22.760 --> 0:21:25.760
<v Speaker 2>general split between Trump and the faction of the party

0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:30.160
<v Speaker 2>who want a strongman dictator type but who aren't Christian nationalists,

0:21:30.440 --> 0:21:34.200
<v Speaker 2>and the chunk who are. This is a natural cleavage,

0:21:34.200 --> 0:21:36.399
<v Speaker 2>and we can see further evidence of this in the

0:21:36.440 --> 0:21:39.480
<v Speaker 2>fact that, thanks to Trump's intercession, for the first time

0:21:39.520 --> 0:21:42.240
<v Speaker 2>in quite a while, the Republican Party platform does not

0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:45.159
<v Speaker 2>call for a national ban on abortion, And if you

0:21:45.200 --> 0:21:48.160
<v Speaker 2>watch Trump during the debate, you can tell he's uncomfortable

0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:50.600
<v Speaker 2>taking the standard right wing line on this because Trump

0:21:51.000 --> 0:21:53.720
<v Speaker 2>is not a conservative Christian and doesn't really give a

0:21:53.720 --> 0:21:57.159
<v Speaker 2>shit about abortion. He also knows it's not a vote winner.

0:21:57.280 --> 0:22:00.480
<v Speaker 2>You know, he can't entirely push back on the party

0:22:00.520 --> 0:22:03.240
<v Speaker 2>on this, but he's clearly not motivated to do so.

0:22:03.840 --> 0:22:06.200
<v Speaker 2>Now does this mean Trump wouldn't sign such a ban

0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:08.919
<v Speaker 2>into law. Now, of course not. But it means he

0:22:09.000 --> 0:22:11.720
<v Speaker 2>understands that while the Jack Posobics of the world have

0:22:11.840 --> 0:22:14.040
<v Speaker 2>their use to him, he needs a lot of votes

0:22:14.080 --> 0:22:18.600
<v Speaker 2>from people who rightly see those Republicans as scary. If

0:22:18.600 --> 0:22:22.119
<v Speaker 2>Trump does take power again, these natural cleavages will become

0:22:22.119 --> 0:22:24.760
<v Speaker 2>more pronounced, and Trump will also have to wield power

0:22:24.760 --> 0:22:27.359
<v Speaker 2>in a severely divided country that does not like him

0:22:27.480 --> 0:22:30.840
<v Speaker 2>or his policies. One thing that nearly all recent polling

0:22:30.880 --> 0:22:33.960
<v Speaker 2>has made clear is that Biden's historic unpopularity has not

0:22:34.000 --> 0:22:37.439
<v Speaker 2>made Trump more popular. Poles generally show a ceiling of

0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:40.160
<v Speaker 2>around forty two percent of the country who like the guy,

0:22:40.480 --> 0:22:44.160
<v Speaker 2>and that ceiling is remarkably stable. There is also evidence

0:22:44.160 --> 0:22:46.920
<v Speaker 2>that these sudden media focus on Project twenty twenty five

0:22:47.000 --> 0:22:49.439
<v Speaker 2>and the fact that Republicans are actively planning to in

0:22:49.520 --> 0:22:53.280
<v Speaker 2>democracy has cut into Trump's support. Right before I finish

0:22:53.359 --> 0:22:56.640
<v Speaker 2>this episode, on Thursday, July eleventh, IPSOS published a poll

0:22:56.680 --> 0:22:59.399
<v Speaker 2>showing Trump down a point from their last poll taken

0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:03.000
<v Speaker 2>after the which put him in Biden close to a tie. Now,

0:23:03.000 --> 0:23:05.040
<v Speaker 2>this still isn't great for Biden, because they all writes

0:23:05.080 --> 0:23:07.720
<v Speaker 2>this election should not be close. But I think a

0:23:07.760 --> 0:23:10.280
<v Speaker 2>lot of people have made the mistake of conflating disgust

0:23:10.359 --> 0:23:12.879
<v Speaker 2>for Biden with surging support for Trump, and that just

0:23:13.000 --> 0:23:15.960
<v Speaker 2>is not what we're seeing. More evidence for this comes

0:23:15.960 --> 0:23:19.040
<v Speaker 2>from a recent ABC Your Voice poll which showed fifty

0:23:19.080 --> 0:23:22.000
<v Speaker 2>percent of the country having an unfavorable opinion of Biden

0:23:22.280 --> 0:23:25.399
<v Speaker 2>and fifty nine percent having an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

0:23:25.760 --> 0:23:28.320
<v Speaker 2>Part of why so many of these outright fascists have

0:23:28.359 --> 0:23:30.840
<v Speaker 2>gone mask off is that they see these numbers too.

0:23:31.240 --> 0:23:33.879
<v Speaker 2>They know that this moment right now is their best shot,

0:23:34.000 --> 0:23:37.439
<v Speaker 2>maybe ever, at taking this country, crushing their enemies and

0:23:37.520 --> 0:23:40.199
<v Speaker 2>inflicting the pain that it is their only purpose in

0:23:40.280 --> 0:23:43.640
<v Speaker 2>life to inflict, and they might win. They might get

0:23:43.640 --> 0:23:46.040
<v Speaker 2>to do that the Heritage Foundation is not at the

0:23:46.040 --> 0:23:49.080
<v Speaker 2>heart of the Trump campaign, but any step closer to

0:23:49.080 --> 0:23:51.879
<v Speaker 2>total power for these people should ring alarm bells in

0:23:51.920 --> 0:23:55.480
<v Speaker 2>every heart and head in this country. Yet the severity

0:23:55.560 --> 0:24:00.560
<v Speaker 2>of the situation does not change this absolutely crucial fact.

0:24:01.240 --> 0:24:04.320
<v Speaker 2>The fascists snow the wind is no longer at their backs,

0:24:04.920 --> 0:24:07.040
<v Speaker 2>and I'm going to talk about that when we come

0:24:07.080 --> 0:24:21.800
<v Speaker 2>back from this ad break. Despite how confident Trump campaign

0:24:22.160 --> 0:24:25.160
<v Speaker 2>and guys like Jack Bisobek are talking right now about

0:24:25.160 --> 0:24:28.960
<v Speaker 2>their chances of winning, of dominating the government, of taking

0:24:29.000 --> 0:24:32.760
<v Speaker 2>control of America for generations, and purging the left, the

0:24:32.840 --> 0:24:35.920
<v Speaker 2>reality is that their position is not nearly as stable

0:24:36.000 --> 0:24:39.119
<v Speaker 2>as it seems. And you know, part of why I

0:24:39.160 --> 0:24:40.760
<v Speaker 2>think a lot of folks buy into a lot of

0:24:40.800 --> 0:24:43.360
<v Speaker 2>folks on the left and liberals buy into the claims

0:24:43.359 --> 0:24:46.840
<v Speaker 2>that the right is making right now about their guaranteed victory,

0:24:47.240 --> 0:24:51.119
<v Speaker 2>about their looming inevitable victory, is that Americans tend to

0:24:51.160 --> 0:24:53.919
<v Speaker 2>be pretty self centered when it comes to politics, and

0:24:54.040 --> 0:24:56.879
<v Speaker 2>it is understandable that this nail biighter of an election

0:24:57.040 --> 0:25:00.520
<v Speaker 2>in Joe Biden's calamitist debate performance has people here feeling

0:25:00.640 --> 0:25:04.000
<v Speaker 2>doomed and feeling like a new fascist world order is inevitable.

0:25:04.480 --> 0:25:06.919
<v Speaker 2>If you feel that way, though, I urge you to

0:25:07.040 --> 0:25:11.520
<v Speaker 2>look around the world. Look to India, where authoritarian near

0:25:11.600 --> 0:25:15.479
<v Speaker 2>dictator Narindramodi was just dealt a startling setback in the

0:25:15.480 --> 0:25:19.000
<v Speaker 2>Indian general election. His party, the BJP, failed to win

0:25:19.040 --> 0:25:22.000
<v Speaker 2>a majority for the first time since twenty fourteen. Now,

0:25:22.160 --> 0:25:24.359
<v Speaker 2>this is not the end of Mody, but it is

0:25:24.400 --> 0:25:27.399
<v Speaker 2>a shocking sign of where the wind is blowing and

0:25:27.480 --> 0:25:30.480
<v Speaker 2>the backlash that has started to form against the far

0:25:30.600 --> 0:25:34.240
<v Speaker 2>right worldwide. In the UK, the Labor Party just won

0:25:34.280 --> 0:25:37.880
<v Speaker 2>a landslide election against the Conservatives, tapping it into more

0:25:37.920 --> 0:25:41.399
<v Speaker 2>than a dozen years of conservative power. And in France,

0:25:41.480 --> 0:25:44.919
<v Speaker 2>the snap election called by President Emmanuel mccron inspired the

0:25:44.920 --> 0:25:48.240
<v Speaker 2>creation of a popular left wing front against the far right,

0:25:48.680 --> 0:25:53.040
<v Speaker 2>which defeated the far right in another historic election. Among

0:25:53.080 --> 0:25:56.159
<v Speaker 2>other things, this new left alliance has promised to recognize

0:25:56.160 --> 0:25:59.760
<v Speaker 2>the state of Palestine and increase support for Ukrainian resistance

0:25:59.760 --> 0:26:03.520
<v Speaker 2>to Rush's invasion. I could go on Turkey's all, but

0:26:03.640 --> 0:26:06.960
<v Speaker 2>dictator President Erduwan has been bleeding support for years now

0:26:07.000 --> 0:26:10.560
<v Speaker 2>and recently suffered a massive setback in regional elections around

0:26:10.560 --> 0:26:14.160
<v Speaker 2>the country. The opposition Republican People's Party took the five

0:26:14.280 --> 0:26:17.400
<v Speaker 2>largest cities in the country in an upset vote, including

0:26:17.440 --> 0:26:21.400
<v Speaker 2>the capital Istanbul, where Duin's party had invested massive resources.

0:26:21.960 --> 0:26:24.600
<v Speaker 2>Now these upsets in India and Turkey are so worth

0:26:24.640 --> 0:26:28.240
<v Speaker 2>discussing because both countries are years into their own version

0:26:28.280 --> 0:26:32.160
<v Speaker 2>of the nightmare scenario that Donald Trump Season two represents. Right,

0:26:32.400 --> 0:26:35.719
<v Speaker 2>they voted their fascists into power. These guys took control

0:26:35.760 --> 0:26:40.000
<v Speaker 2>of the courts, imprisoned dissidents, harnessed civil violence for political gain.

0:26:40.080 --> 0:26:42.800
<v Speaker 2>And yet even with all that, even with all the

0:26:42.920 --> 0:26:46.800
<v Speaker 2>power available to a modern security state, their hold on

0:26:46.960 --> 0:26:50.639
<v Speaker 2>power is slipping, just as I read these words. For

0:26:50.760 --> 0:26:54.440
<v Speaker 2>many years, neo Nazi activists sought to influence and build

0:26:54.480 --> 0:26:58.000
<v Speaker 2>support within the Republican Party and talked about hiding their

0:26:58.040 --> 0:27:00.560
<v Speaker 2>power level as they did so. This is a term

0:27:00.600 --> 0:27:03.240
<v Speaker 2>they cribbed from Dragon ball Z and it means, in essence,

0:27:03.480 --> 0:27:06.280
<v Speaker 2>pretending not to be a crazy ass fascist in order

0:27:06.320 --> 0:27:08.480
<v Speaker 2>to get enough support from the normies that you can

0:27:08.640 --> 0:27:11.159
<v Speaker 2>act like a crazy ass fascist with the power of

0:27:11.160 --> 0:27:15.040
<v Speaker 2>the state. Well, the masks are off now nobody is

0:27:15.119 --> 0:27:17.600
<v Speaker 2>hiding their power level anymore, and I am not so

0:27:17.800 --> 0:27:20.280
<v Speaker 2>arrogant as to claim that I know that their defeat

0:27:20.320 --> 0:27:22.720
<v Speaker 2>is around the corner. But I will tell you one thing.

0:27:23.280 --> 0:27:25.680
<v Speaker 2>This is a make or break moment for the sons

0:27:25.720 --> 0:27:29.080
<v Speaker 2>of bitches. If they fail now, they will find themselves

0:27:29.080 --> 0:27:32.320
<v Speaker 2>exposed in a country that knows precisely who and what

0:27:32.440 --> 0:27:35.360
<v Speaker 2>they are. And this means we will have the opportunity

0:27:35.400 --> 0:27:38.120
<v Speaker 2>to destroy them. Now how would we do that? Well,

0:27:38.359 --> 0:27:40.119
<v Speaker 2>first off, I'm not going to give you a detailed,

0:27:40.160 --> 0:27:43.159
<v Speaker 2>perfect roadmap for how you can participate in this and

0:27:43.200 --> 0:27:46.040
<v Speaker 2>how we can easily destroy the fascists and the next

0:27:46.080 --> 0:27:49.040
<v Speaker 2>you know, five or six minutes of a podcast. But

0:27:49.160 --> 0:27:51.560
<v Speaker 2>I do have some theories. I will elaborate on them

0:27:51.560 --> 0:27:54.920
<v Speaker 2>more in subsequent episodes. And I want to emphasize right

0:27:54.960 --> 0:27:59.280
<v Speaker 2>now that this is possible because the cultural power of

0:27:59.320 --> 0:28:03.600
<v Speaker 2>the far right, which seems so mighty right now, actually

0:28:03.600 --> 0:28:06.640
<v Speaker 2>does rest on a house of cards. The Republican Party

0:28:06.720 --> 0:28:10.119
<v Speaker 2>today is funded primarily by a coalition of car dealers

0:28:10.119 --> 0:28:12.720
<v Speaker 2>who donate more than any other profession because their job

0:28:12.760 --> 0:28:16.840
<v Speaker 2>depends on being able to scam consumers, multi level marketing corporations,

0:28:17.040 --> 0:28:21.760
<v Speaker 2>supplement sales, affiliate marketing, megachurches, and of course are old

0:28:21.800 --> 0:28:25.800
<v Speaker 2>friends in the oil and gas industry. And there's a

0:28:25.800 --> 0:28:28.680
<v Speaker 2>lot of ways to attack these different pillars of right

0:28:28.720 --> 0:28:32.320
<v Speaker 2>wing power, these people who are actually funding their media operations,

0:28:32.320 --> 0:28:34.879
<v Speaker 2>who are funding a lot of these more radical candidates,

0:28:34.920 --> 0:28:37.520
<v Speaker 2>and who are lobbying for changes in laws that hurt

0:28:37.600 --> 0:28:40.080
<v Speaker 2>you and help them. And again, I'm not going to

0:28:40.080 --> 0:28:41.959
<v Speaker 2>be able to give a comprehensive list of how you

0:28:42.000 --> 0:28:45.440
<v Speaker 2>go about dismantling all of this. It is a formidable task,

0:28:45.480 --> 0:28:47.040
<v Speaker 2>but you could do a lot of damage to the

0:28:47.040 --> 0:28:50.080
<v Speaker 2>power of the far right by regulating car sales and

0:28:50.080 --> 0:28:52.840
<v Speaker 2>punishing dealers who scam consumers, which is close to one

0:28:52.880 --> 0:28:55.640
<v Speaker 2>hundred percent of dealers. You can ban the sale of

0:28:55.720 --> 0:28:59.000
<v Speaker 2>unregulated supplements marketed as medical treatment's a thing that should

0:28:59.000 --> 0:29:02.120
<v Speaker 2>be illegal, but effectctively as not. You can ban pyramid

0:29:02.200 --> 0:29:05.280
<v Speaker 2>schemes and prosecute the criminals who have made fortunes off

0:29:05.280 --> 0:29:08.640
<v Speaker 2>of them. These are counterattacks that will improve daily life

0:29:08.680 --> 0:29:12.000
<v Speaker 2>for huge numbers of voters and do functional damage to

0:29:12.080 --> 0:29:16.000
<v Speaker 2>the rights ability to move and maneuver. Now, I don't

0:29:16.280 --> 0:29:18.880
<v Speaker 2>mean to suggest that the only way to move on

0:29:18.960 --> 0:29:21.600
<v Speaker 2>any of those issues is just to vote right. Democrats

0:29:21.640 --> 0:29:23.760
<v Speaker 2>have had decades to fight back against this shit, and

0:29:23.840 --> 0:29:27.360
<v Speaker 2>they have failed by nearly every measure. But we have

0:29:27.480 --> 0:29:29.960
<v Speaker 2>the potential of a general strike coming up in twenty

0:29:30.000 --> 0:29:32.720
<v Speaker 2>twenty eight if the UAW has their way, and the

0:29:32.760 --> 0:29:35.880
<v Speaker 2>catastrophic failure of the Democratic Party in this election has

0:29:35.920 --> 0:29:39.400
<v Speaker 2>I think created some space for new kinds of organizing.

0:29:39.640 --> 0:29:41.880
<v Speaker 2>The last point I want to leave you with is

0:29:42.120 --> 0:29:45.240
<v Speaker 2>one more piece of evidence that the juggernaut hurtling towards

0:29:45.280 --> 0:29:48.240
<v Speaker 2>us is not so hail and hardy as it seems.

0:29:48.800 --> 0:29:51.240
<v Speaker 2>In April of this year, The Atlantic published an article

0:29:51.280 --> 0:29:54.040
<v Speaker 2>based on analytics of the most popular right wing news

0:29:54.080 --> 0:29:57.960
<v Speaker 2>websites in the country. They wrote, this past February, readership

0:29:58.000 --> 0:30:01.200
<v Speaker 2>of the ten largest conservative websites was down forty percent

0:30:01.320 --> 0:30:04.000
<v Speaker 2>compared with the same month in twenty twenty, According to

0:30:04.040 --> 0:30:07.240
<v Speaker 2>The Rightening, a newsletter that uses monthly data from Commscore,

0:30:07.480 --> 0:30:10.040
<v Speaker 2>essentially the Nielsen ratings of the Internet to track right

0:30:10.080 --> 0:30:12.720
<v Speaker 2>wing media. Some of the bigger names in the field

0:30:12.720 --> 0:30:15.840
<v Speaker 2>that have been pummeled the hardest. The Daily Caller lost

0:30:15.880 --> 0:30:19.120
<v Speaker 2>fifty seven percent of its audience, Drudge Report, the Granddaddy

0:30:19.120 --> 0:30:22.680
<v Speaker 2>of conservative aggregation, was down eighty one percent, and The

0:30:22.680 --> 0:30:25.760
<v Speaker 2>Federalist founded just over a decade ago, lost a staggering

0:30:25.840 --> 0:30:30.680
<v Speaker 2>ninety one percent. Now, these numbers are startlingly consistent across

0:30:30.760 --> 0:30:33.360
<v Speaker 2>right wing media, and they are vastly worse than what

0:30:33.440 --> 0:30:36.240
<v Speaker 2>liberal and left leaning media has seen over the same

0:30:36.320 --> 0:30:39.320
<v Speaker 2>time period. A number of ostensibly liberal sites like The

0:30:39.440 --> 0:30:42.400
<v Speaker 2>Times have seen an increase in subscribers over the same period,

0:30:42.640 --> 0:30:45.160
<v Speaker 2>and I can confirm to you that here at Coolzone

0:30:45.200 --> 0:30:47.640
<v Speaker 2>we have more listeners and subscribers than we did in

0:30:47.720 --> 0:30:50.160
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty. Now, should you feel like there's nothing to

0:30:50.160 --> 0:30:52.680
<v Speaker 2>worry about just because the right wing media is taking

0:30:52.680 --> 0:30:55.800
<v Speaker 2>a fall, No, But what this should be evidence of

0:30:56.080 --> 0:30:59.800
<v Speaker 2>is that, again, their support has always largely been built

0:30:59.800 --> 0:31:02.800
<v Speaker 2>on their ability to generate huge amounts of money and

0:31:02.960 --> 0:31:07.520
<v Speaker 2>essentially buy attention, you know, And that's largely where guys

0:31:07.560 --> 0:31:11.240
<v Speaker 2>like Ben Shapiro have gotten their cultural power. And that's

0:31:11.280 --> 0:31:14.600
<v Speaker 2>made Ben Shapiro a wealthy man, but it hasn't actually

0:31:14.640 --> 0:31:16.440
<v Speaker 2>brought him a lot of people who give a shit

0:31:16.600 --> 0:31:19.880
<v Speaker 2>what he has to say. The actual number of people

0:31:19.920 --> 0:31:22.720
<v Speaker 2>paying attention to the scary motherfuckers that you see in

0:31:22.760 --> 0:31:25.720
<v Speaker 2>these clips that spread on liberal and lefty social media

0:31:25.920 --> 0:31:29.240
<v Speaker 2>is very small, and it's very small because these people

0:31:29.280 --> 0:31:32.200
<v Speaker 2>are crazy assholes who most of the folks around you,

0:31:32.400 --> 0:31:35.880
<v Speaker 2>who are basically decent people, because most people are decent,

0:31:36.240 --> 0:31:40.040
<v Speaker 2>fucking hate what we have seen here. What we are

0:31:40.080 --> 0:31:43.120
<v Speaker 2>seeing here is the shattering of an illusion, and the

0:31:43.160 --> 0:31:45.560
<v Speaker 2>popularity of a lot of right wing media was only

0:31:45.600 --> 0:31:48.480
<v Speaker 2>ever an illusion, popped up by an infusion of cash

0:31:48.520 --> 0:31:51.520
<v Speaker 2>from billionaire fail suns desperate to hold on to their money.

0:31:51.840 --> 0:31:54.560
<v Speaker 2>Most people don't like or trust these folks, and the

0:31:54.680 --> 0:31:57.600
<v Speaker 2>arrogance and certainty of victory that the Trump campaign and

0:31:57.640 --> 0:32:00.880
<v Speaker 2>the Sobics of the country have been showing now, well,

0:32:01.760 --> 0:32:05.200
<v Speaker 2>it's caused them to expose themselves. There is precisely one

0:32:05.240 --> 0:32:07.760
<v Speaker 2>thing you can always count on from fascists, and it's

0:32:07.800 --> 0:32:11.560
<v Speaker 2>that they're dogshit at estimating risk. Time and time again,

0:32:11.600 --> 0:32:14.320
<v Speaker 2>they convince themselves that they cannot be stopped in pick

0:32:14.400 --> 0:32:18.160
<v Speaker 2>fights that they wind up losing. And that is perhaps

0:32:18.360 --> 0:32:21.640
<v Speaker 2>the most reliable thing that we can predict from their behavior,

0:32:21.720 --> 0:32:23.760
<v Speaker 2>and maybe the most comforting thing I can tell you

0:32:23.840 --> 0:32:24.560
<v Speaker 2>going forward.

0:32:24.640 --> 0:32:24.880
<v Speaker 1>Now.

0:32:25.320 --> 0:32:28.760
<v Speaker 2>I also just retyped and re recorded this ending in

0:32:28.840 --> 0:32:32.040
<v Speaker 2>the wake of the assassination attempt against former President Trump,

0:32:32.320 --> 0:32:33.800
<v Speaker 2>and I want to talk a little bit about that

0:32:33.840 --> 0:32:36.680
<v Speaker 2>before we go out, because that is certainly potentially a

0:32:36.720 --> 0:32:39.000
<v Speaker 2>game changer. You know, people saying this could change the

0:32:39.000 --> 0:32:42.360
<v Speaker 2>whole election are not wrong, but at this point far

0:32:42.360 --> 0:32:45.680
<v Speaker 2>from a guarantee. As well, as I said earlier, there

0:32:45.680 --> 0:32:49.160
<v Speaker 2>have been assassination attempts against sitting presidents and former presidents

0:32:49.160 --> 0:32:52.040
<v Speaker 2>that have not moved the needle in an election, either

0:32:52.080 --> 0:32:54.240
<v Speaker 2>at least not in a really clear way in favor

0:32:54.280 --> 0:32:56.840
<v Speaker 2>of the person the attempt was against. So we don't

0:32:56.880 --> 0:32:59.120
<v Speaker 2>know how this is going to play. One thing I

0:32:59.160 --> 0:33:01.840
<v Speaker 2>have seen in the immediate wake of this, within minutes

0:33:02.320 --> 0:33:04.360
<v Speaker 2>of the attempt itself and video of it going up,

0:33:04.880 --> 0:33:07.720
<v Speaker 2>is liberals, I think mainly liberals, but also some people

0:33:07.760 --> 0:33:09.960
<v Speaker 2>on the left immediately being like, this is a Reichstag

0:33:10.040 --> 0:33:13.800
<v Speaker 2>fire situation, this is staged, This is obviously a fake attempt.

0:33:14.200 --> 0:33:16.360
<v Speaker 2>I don't see any evidence of that in the video

0:33:16.440 --> 0:33:18.920
<v Speaker 2>that's out there. I do not believe this was faked.

0:33:19.280 --> 0:33:23.080
<v Speaker 2>I do not need a conspiracy to believe that somebody

0:33:23.120 --> 0:33:26.120
<v Speaker 2>would want to take a shot at former President Trump.

0:33:27.560 --> 0:33:31.360
<v Speaker 2>The video does not show any clear weird signs that

0:33:31.400 --> 0:33:34.560
<v Speaker 2>would make me suspect something odd was going on. One

0:33:34.600 --> 0:33:36.280
<v Speaker 2>of the things that's come out it looks like the

0:33:36.320 --> 0:33:39.280
<v Speaker 2>shooter was on a roof nearby, pretty clear evidence of

0:33:39.320 --> 0:33:42.840
<v Speaker 2>that at this point. There are some reports from people

0:33:42.840 --> 0:33:45.960
<v Speaker 2>in the crowd who say that they pointed out the

0:33:45.960 --> 0:33:49.840
<v Speaker 2>guy on the roof to police and were basically ignored.

0:33:49.920 --> 0:33:52.840
<v Speaker 2>You know, the police didn't do anything. That also does

0:33:52.880 --> 0:33:54.920
<v Speaker 2>not seem weird to me, and if it does to you.

0:33:54.960 --> 0:33:57.120
<v Speaker 2>I want to explain something about these events because I've

0:33:57.120 --> 0:34:00.320
<v Speaker 2>been to a number of events during presidential campaig with

0:34:00.360 --> 0:34:03.120
<v Speaker 2>the Secret Service is doing security and other kind of

0:34:03.240 --> 0:34:05.600
<v Speaker 2>large scale, you know, events like this where there's a

0:34:05.640 --> 0:34:08.360
<v Speaker 2>lot of different law enforcement agencies and at all of

0:34:08.360 --> 0:34:10.680
<v Speaker 2>them you will see snipers on the roof. It is

0:34:10.719 --> 0:34:12.480
<v Speaker 2>not hard to find them. These guys, some of them,

0:34:12.480 --> 0:34:15.040
<v Speaker 2>I assume are very well camouflaged. I'm not saying I

0:34:15.120 --> 0:34:18.000
<v Speaker 2>know I've seen everyone that's around at one of these things,

0:34:18.000 --> 0:34:20.520
<v Speaker 2>but you see a lot of them, right, and so

0:34:20.600 --> 0:34:24.399
<v Speaker 2>do the cops. Right. It's just not abnormal, and there

0:34:24.440 --> 0:34:26.759
<v Speaker 2>are always a ton of law enforcement agencies. You know,

0:34:26.840 --> 0:34:29.879
<v Speaker 2>this was just another Trump rally, so relatively minor as

0:34:29.920 --> 0:34:32.600
<v Speaker 2>events in you know, a presidential campaign go. But you

0:34:32.680 --> 0:34:35.319
<v Speaker 2>still have state and local cops. You still have at

0:34:35.400 --> 0:34:38.400
<v Speaker 2>least the Secret Service, probably more than just the Secret

0:34:38.480 --> 0:34:42.320
<v Speaker 2>Service when it comes to federal agencies. So you know, conservatively,

0:34:42.960 --> 0:34:45.239
<v Speaker 2>at minimum, probably at least a half dozen different law

0:34:45.320 --> 0:34:49.040
<v Speaker 2>enforcement agencies covering this event, right, And there's definitely going

0:34:49.080 --> 0:34:51.239
<v Speaker 2>to be some people there who know where all of

0:34:51.239 --> 0:34:53.600
<v Speaker 2>the snipers are supposed to be, right, presumably within the

0:34:53.640 --> 0:34:55.960
<v Speaker 2>Secret Service. But that is not the average cop on

0:34:56.000 --> 0:34:59.080
<v Speaker 2>the ground. The average cop covering this event, especially walking

0:34:59.080 --> 0:35:01.920
<v Speaker 2>around doing foot patrol, does not know where federal law

0:35:02.000 --> 0:35:05.920
<v Speaker 2>enforcement has every single sniper set up, and they are like, anyway,

0:35:06.120 --> 0:35:09.160
<v Speaker 2>I started this episode talking about the normalcy bias, right, Well,

0:35:09.440 --> 0:35:12.120
<v Speaker 2>that's not just a thing that you can trip you

0:35:12.200 --> 0:35:14.400
<v Speaker 2>up when you are trying to predict the future months

0:35:14.480 --> 0:35:16.640
<v Speaker 2>or years in advance. It is a thing that can

0:35:16.680 --> 0:35:19.799
<v Speaker 2>trip you up predicting something a minute in advance. Right.

0:35:20.480 --> 0:35:23.400
<v Speaker 2>You see, as a cop walking through this event, someone says, hey,

0:35:23.440 --> 0:35:24.839
<v Speaker 2>there's a guy up on the roof with a gun. Well,

0:35:24.840 --> 0:35:27.200
<v Speaker 2>you've seen a half dozen guys on the roof with guns.

0:35:27.239 --> 0:35:29.480
<v Speaker 2>You've been told there's a bunch of different Secret Service

0:35:29.560 --> 0:35:33.520
<v Speaker 2>and DHS sniper teams up there. Maybe your agency has

0:35:33.560 --> 0:35:36.360
<v Speaker 2>some guys up on the roof you know, sharpshooters not

0:35:36.480 --> 0:35:38.759
<v Speaker 2>at all weird. You go, yeah, it's maybe You even

0:35:38.800 --> 0:35:41.000
<v Speaker 2>see the guy and the pictures I've seen, looks like

0:35:41.040 --> 0:35:42.840
<v Speaker 2>he was wearing camo. Looks like he was wearing the

0:35:42.920 --> 0:35:45.200
<v Speaker 2>kind of combat gear that cops wear, but also that

0:35:45.400 --> 0:35:49.880
<v Speaker 2>anyone can buy, because cops look like you know a

0:35:49.880 --> 0:35:51.560
<v Speaker 2>lot of people who just buy this shit and do

0:35:51.640 --> 0:35:54.239
<v Speaker 2>it recreationally, you know, go go shooting and training in

0:35:54.239 --> 0:35:56.520
<v Speaker 2>the woods or whatever. Like a lot of it's not

0:35:56.640 --> 0:35:59.200
<v Speaker 2>hard to gain access to gear that at a glance

0:35:59.440 --> 0:36:01.719
<v Speaker 2>would look like a cop. And my guess is that

0:36:01.800 --> 0:36:05.440
<v Speaker 2>this guy counted on the normalcy bias. He figured my

0:36:05.600 --> 0:36:07.520
<v Speaker 2>best shot at being able to get away with this

0:36:07.680 --> 0:36:09.600
<v Speaker 2>is if I post up on a roof somewhere and

0:36:09.680 --> 0:36:13.480
<v Speaker 2>assume that the cops that spot me immediately won't know

0:36:13.640 --> 0:36:16.640
<v Speaker 2>right away what I am, right, And that does seem

0:36:16.680 --> 0:36:18.600
<v Speaker 2>to be what happened at this moment, And you know,

0:36:18.840 --> 0:36:21.320
<v Speaker 2>I take that as a lot of things very unclear.

0:36:21.360 --> 0:36:23.759
<v Speaker 2>This is going to again affect the election, but take

0:36:23.760 --> 0:36:26.840
<v Speaker 2>it as a warning against falling for the normalcy bias,

0:36:26.920 --> 0:36:31.640
<v Speaker 2>because just because something seems like it's not weird, like,

0:36:31.680 --> 0:36:34.680
<v Speaker 2>it's not a sign of a change of something very

0:36:34.719 --> 0:36:38.160
<v Speaker 2>different about to go down doesn't mean it isn't. Yeah,

0:36:38.640 --> 0:36:40.600
<v Speaker 2>you can never trust your assumptions, and that goes both

0:36:41.239 --> 0:36:43.600
<v Speaker 2>with both ways. With this, I am seeing a lot

0:36:43.640 --> 0:36:47.000
<v Speaker 2>of understandable catastrophizing. This is a terrifying thing. I am

0:36:47.840 --> 0:36:50.560
<v Speaker 2>someone who's about to head into the RNC not thrilled

0:36:50.560 --> 0:36:54.520
<v Speaker 2>that this has happened. But that doesn't mean we know

0:36:54.880 --> 0:36:56.719
<v Speaker 2>what the fallout is going to be. It doesn't mean

0:36:56.760 --> 0:36:58.839
<v Speaker 2>we know what the reaction and the result is. I mean,

0:36:59.160 --> 0:37:02.080
<v Speaker 2>for among other things, this is not necessarily fully optimistic.

0:37:02.160 --> 0:37:04.240
<v Speaker 2>But I don't know how much this moves the needle

0:37:04.239 --> 0:37:06.960
<v Speaker 2>because I don't know how many people who can be

0:37:07.120 --> 0:37:09.719
<v Speaker 2>convinced would be swayed by something like this, For how

0:37:09.719 --> 0:37:11.960
<v Speaker 2>many people this could change their opinion on the election,

0:37:12.360 --> 0:37:14.960
<v Speaker 2>and how many people are going to believe that this

0:37:15.160 --> 0:37:17.640
<v Speaker 2>was real and not. You know, I've even seen people

0:37:17.800 --> 0:37:20.160
<v Speaker 2>claiming that like, yeah, Trump bladed himself the way a

0:37:20.200 --> 0:37:23.400
<v Speaker 2>wrestler would. Again, I think that's all nonsense. It's just

0:37:23.440 --> 0:37:26.839
<v Speaker 2>really unclear how people are going to react, right. It's

0:37:26.880 --> 0:37:29.600
<v Speaker 2>not worthless to look back to you know, there's an

0:37:29.640 --> 0:37:32.799
<v Speaker 2>attempt on Reagan to try and see and other assassination

0:37:32.840 --> 0:37:35.880
<v Speaker 2>attempts and how they've affected elections. But all of that

0:37:35.920 --> 0:37:39.080
<v Speaker 2>shit happened prior to the modern era of social media.

0:37:39.160 --> 0:37:41.760
<v Speaker 2>All of that shit happened prior to everyone's brains getting

0:37:41.760 --> 0:37:44.600
<v Speaker 2>broken by the Internet. So I'm not going to tell

0:37:44.640 --> 0:37:47.080
<v Speaker 2>you this is a good time. I'm not going to

0:37:47.160 --> 0:37:50.440
<v Speaker 2>tell you things are chill. They the fuck aren't. But

0:37:50.480 --> 0:37:53.360
<v Speaker 2>i am going to tell you the future is not written,

0:37:53.640 --> 0:37:58.360
<v Speaker 2>and don't panic until next time. I'm Robert Evans and

0:37:58.400 --> 0:38:01.000
<v Speaker 2>this is It Could Happen Here back later this week

0:38:01.040 --> 0:38:02.760
<v Speaker 2>with coverage of the Republican Convention.

0:38:08.880 --> 0:38:11.240
<v Speaker 1>It Could Happen Here as a production of cool Zone Media.

0:38:11.440 --> 0:38:14.120
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0:38:14.160 --> 0:38:17.279
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