1 00:00:01,760 --> 00:00:07,320 Speaker 1: All Zone Media. 2 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:07,880 Speaker 2: Robert Evans here and this is It Could Happen here, 3 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:11,319 Speaker 2: a podcast about things falling apart, and boy, they sure 4 00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:14,240 Speaker 2: seem to be, don't they. The twenty twenty four election 5 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 2: is terrifying a lot of people at this stage after 6 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 2: a disastrous debate performance by Joe Biden, And this episode 7 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 2: will be coming out on the Monday that the Republican 8 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 2: National Convention starts in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. A lot of people 9 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 2: are terrified about a Trump dictatorship, about Project twenty twenty 10 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 2: five and all that that entails. And I want to 11 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:38,560 Speaker 2: tell you first off, you know, we will be having 12 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 2: a lot of coverage from the convention. Garrison, Sophie and 13 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 2: I are all going to be there all week. We'll 14 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 2: start dropping our convention episodes on Wednesday and Thursday and Friday, 15 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 2: and then we'll probably have some summary content after that 16 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 2: the next week. So we will be getting you our 17 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 2: experiences here and everything that we encounter on the ground 18 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 2: during what I think is going to wind up a 19 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 2: pretty important week for the American fascist movement. But right now, 20 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:07,479 Speaker 2: what I want to address is the sense of kind 21 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 2: of unbridled terror that I've seen for a lot of 22 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 2: people around me, not just leftists, but regular people that 23 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 2: I know in my life, folks who are just kind 24 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 2: of like casual democrats, not the kind to think much 25 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,119 Speaker 2: about politics, but have suddenly seen the potential of what 26 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 2: a Trump second term might bring with it and are 27 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 2: rightfully terrified. So I want to first off, tell everyone 28 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 2: in that bucket, don't panic. That's what this episode is about. 29 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,119 Speaker 2: And I'm going to try and give you some good 30 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 2: reasons not to panic, some reasons why our situation is 31 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:42,959 Speaker 2: not as dire as it seems. And my goal here 32 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 2: is not to lull you into an action or stop 33 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 2: you from preparing. You should, in fact be preparing, And 34 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 2: we talk about the various things you can do organizing 35 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 2: in your community, taking action to support migrants, to support 36 00:01:55,880 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 2: each other, to support your LGBTQ friends, women seeking reproductive justice. 37 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 2: That's our daily bread and butter. Right now, I want 38 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 2: to give you some reasons for optimism about victory and 39 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 2: the overall struggle against these fucking maniacs. So, as most 40 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 2: regular listeners will know, back in the spring of twenty nineteen, 41 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 2: I published the first season of It Could Happen Here, 42 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 2: which was originally a scripted podcast about the very real 43 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 2: possibility of a civil conflict in the United States. The 44 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 2: years since have proven several of my predictions painfully accurate. 45 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 2: I started the series with fictional vignettes from the perspective 46 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 2: of an American civilian watching American tanks roll through the 47 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 2: streets of their city. Within a year, thousands and thousands 48 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 2: of listeners had variants of that exact experience thanks to 49 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 2: the George Floyd uprisings. I was humbled and more than 50 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 2: a little frightened by the response that some people had 51 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 2: to the first iteration of it could happen here. During 52 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:53,519 Speaker 2: twenty twenty, while I was on the ground in four 53 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 2: different states, dozens and dozens of people told me the 54 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 2: series had influenced their own choices for how to act 55 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 2: and organize on the ground with their friends out in 56 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 2: the world. And that is humbling and a little bit frightening. 57 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 2: And I promise you I'm not laying this out to 58 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,639 Speaker 2: brag or try to make an argument from authority. I'm 59 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 2: not saying I predicted something five years ago and was right, 60 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 2: so you should listen to what I have to predict now. 61 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 2: In fact, I kind of want to do the opposite 62 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 2: because in another podcast, I recorded in twenty nineteen on 63 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 2: the anti Vaxx movement. This would have been an episode 64 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:28,360 Speaker 2: of Behind the Bastards. I laid out a theoretical pandemic, 65 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 2: and I described it spreading almost exactly the way the 66 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 2: COVID nineteen pandemic really did spread. Just a few months later. 67 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 2: And yet, in February of twenty twenty, when COVID nineteen 68 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 2: had been confirmed to have entered the United States and 69 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 2: was spreading over other parts of the world like wildfire, 70 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 2: I had friends ask me what I thought was going 71 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 2: to happen, and, you know, thinking back to SARS, thinking 72 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 2: back to bird flu, thinking back to the Ebola, you know, 73 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 2: epidemic in twenty fourteen. My answer was, I don't know. 74 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 2: It'll be fine, right, someone, surely there's some adults out 75 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 2: there who were gonna, you know, lock this thing down. 76 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 2: They're not just gonna let it run rampant over the population. Right. 77 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 2: There's a term for what happened to me there, and 78 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 2: it's called normalcy bias. Normalcy bias is the tendency to 79 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 2: assume that whatever has gone down in the past will 80 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 2: keep happening, often despite evidence to the contrary. Something like 81 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 2: eighty percent of people display attributes of delusional thinking caused 82 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:31,480 Speaker 2: by the normalcy bias during disasters. Emergency responders sometimes called 83 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 2: this negative panic. We got a great example of negative 84 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 2: panic a couple of weeks ago. Video went viral of 85 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 2: a bowl that got loose during a rodeo in rural Oregon, 86 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 2: and it started just just absolutely goring random yocals who 87 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 2: were like wandering around in between chiro stands and beer 88 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:50,159 Speaker 2: cards behind sort of the stands, and a few of 89 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 2: these people had the presence of mind to run. One 90 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 2: guy even pulled a gun. And I don't know entirely 91 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,479 Speaker 2: how we want to rate that as a response, but 92 00:04:57,560 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 2: a lot of folks just stared at the bowl, which 93 00:04:59,880 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 2: is blank looks on their faces, utterly uncomprehended. You can 94 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 2: tell from their body language that they just couldn't believe 95 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 2: what they were seeing. And some of those people got 96 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:11,039 Speaker 2: rammed right in the fucking gut by a bull a 97 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 2: second later. The immediate danger that their eyes were telling 98 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 2: them was there just seemed too far fetched to take seriously. 99 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 2: The normalcy bias is an important cognitive error, but it's 100 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 2: just one of the cognitive errors that regularly pushes mankind 101 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:31,039 Speaker 2: towards catastrophes. And while we're on that subject, I should 102 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:32,840 Speaker 2: warn those of you who'd like to try their hand 103 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 2: at predicting the future of a separate cognitive delusion catastrophizing. 104 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 2: This is the tendency to assume that the absolute worst 105 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 2: case scenario will come to pass, and it's often a 106 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 2: trauma reaction. When you've been blown up, you kind of 107 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,280 Speaker 2: always expect the world to blow up around you. If 108 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 2: you've been in a relationship with someone who blows up, 109 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:55,480 Speaker 2: who screams or gets violent or threatens to kill themselves 110 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 2: during arguments, you might find yourself expecting that from anyone 111 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 2: else that you did, even if they've never displayed that 112 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 2: kind of behavior. And if you've watched an in the 113 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 2: bag sheer thing presidential election collapse and usher in a 114 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 2: new era of fascist political capture in your country, well 115 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 2: you might see that kind of thing happening and expect 116 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 2: it whenever the polls open up again. The tricky part 117 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 2: of actually predicting the future with any accuracy, which is 118 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 2: a thing that I have been both professionally successful at 119 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 2: and personally bad at doing, is balancing your normalcy bias 120 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 2: with your catastrophizing This is easier said than done, and 121 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 2: I have noticed that my effort to reach this state 122 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:38,919 Speaker 2: has produced some peculiar cognitive effects of late. In the 123 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 2: six months that led up to the first presidential debate, 124 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 2: I felt constant growing anxiety about a second Trump term. 125 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 2: Only some of my anxiety was based on polling, which 126 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 2: didn't look great for Biden, but wasn't apocalyptic either. I 127 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 2: was anxious because I saw so many people around me, 128 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 2: and I'm not talking about folks on Twitter, but in 129 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 2: the real world, go, well, obviously Biden's got a win, 130 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 2: there's no way Trump gets elected again, and go about 131 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 2: their day. Then the debate happened. Joe went on stage, 132 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:07,719 Speaker 2: barely able to speak at a legible volume, coughing, slurring 133 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 2: his words, and dropping into tangents. Rather than making cogent 134 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 2: cases to the country. Everyone around me started to get 135 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 2: terrified all at once, and the mainstream media did what 136 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 2: it does and pivoted to round the clock coverage of 137 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 2: the issue of Biden's competency. You know, some people have 138 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 2: alleged that this is because the media has some sort 139 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 2: of an agenda here, and I really don't credit the 140 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 2: media as someone who has spent his life working adjacent 141 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 2: to the mainstream media with that kind of capacity to plan. 142 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 2: What these people, what these reporters, what these news organs 143 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 2: were doing, was pivoting to the issue that was doing 144 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 2: the most to raise our collective blood pressure, because, among 145 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 2: other things, that's what social media has trained them to do, 146 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 2: because that's where the fucking money is, right, you know, 147 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 2: not that this issue didn't exist before that If it bleeds, 148 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 2: it leads has been a long time axiom in the field. 149 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 2: But that's what's happening here too, right, And because the 150 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 2: money is in saying and talking about the things that 151 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 2: gets people's blood pumping the most. The question of is 152 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 2: Joe Biden doomed soon yielded to is democracy doomed, as 153 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 2: analysts and pundits started hyping up Project twenty twenty five, 154 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 2: a blueprint for fascist takeover of the US, published by 155 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 2: the Heritage Foundation last year. Now, I am not a polster, 156 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 2: and I don't claim debase any of what I say 157 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 2: next on some kind of mathematic expertise. But I don't 158 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:32,679 Speaker 2: think we're doomed. I don't think fascist takeover is inevitable, 159 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 2: even in the likely event that Biden loses, And I 160 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 2: think our position is a lot stronger than most people realize. 161 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 2: This is why right wing influencers and strategists have started 162 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 2: going so hard on rhetoric that makes them sound like 163 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 2: fucking Cobra commander. The best example of how mask off 164 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 2: the fascist right has gotten is Kevin Roberts, president of 165 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 2: the Heritage Foundation, who said this during a recent press conference. 166 00:08:56,320 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 3: The reason that so many anchors on MSNB, for example, 167 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:05,680 Speaker 3: are losing their minds daily is because our side is winning. 168 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 3: And so I come full circle in this response and 169 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 3: just want to encourage you with some substance that we 170 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 3: are in the process of the Second American Revolution, which 171 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 3: will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be. 172 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 2: Another of these guys is Jack Pasobc, a former Navy 173 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:24,559 Speaker 2: intelligence officer turned to supplement salesman and fascist political philosopher. 174 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 2: Jack spoke on a panel hosted by Steve Bannon for 175 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 2: Seapak where he said this, but. 176 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 4: I just wanted to say, welcome to the end of democracy. 177 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 4: We're here to overthrow it completely. We didn't get all 178 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 4: the way there on January sixth, but we will endeavor 179 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 4: to get rid of it and replace it with this 180 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 4: right here. We'll replace it with this amen. 181 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 2: Now, I should note, folks, when he says this, right here, 182 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 2: he's holding up a cross necklace on a change. Jack's 183 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 2: not a subtle man, but he does speak for a 184 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 2: frighteningly large and influential block of Republicans. Both of these 185 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 2: guys are end results of eighty years of conspiracy theories 186 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 2: and hate speech funded by generations of wealthy businessmen and 187 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 2: their fail sons, and at this point fail grandsons. The 188 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 2: mainstream media and most voters in this country did their 189 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 2: best to ignore these guys for far too long. Now 190 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 2: they're pounding on the doors to the halls of power, 191 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 2: mouths watering, dishard, guns loaded, and people are freaking out. 192 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 2: Biden's poor debate performance and the minor civil war within 193 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 2: the Democratic Party over whether he should remain the candidate 194 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 2: has zeroed a magnifying glass on these people now. Obviously, 195 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 2: Jack and his fellow fascists have been poking on the 196 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 2: fringes of the American right four years. There Nothing they're 197 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 2: saying is new, but Trump's likely victory in the Supreme 198 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 2: Court's recent ruling on executive immunity have led a lot 199 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:48,080 Speaker 2: of people to conclude that project twenty twenty five is 200 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:51,839 Speaker 2: Trump's plan to execute as soon as he takes office. 201 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 2: This is something guys like Pasobic and Roberts want you 202 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 2: to believe because they want you terrified, hiding, shrieking away 203 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 2: from confrontation. Like all fascists, they have an instinctive understanding 204 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 2: that if they can just convince you that the fight 205 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 2: is already lost, they win. This is why Jack has 206 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,319 Speaker 2: spent the last two weeks since the debate quote tweeting 207 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 2: every left wing media person he can find and saying 208 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 2: six months to insinuate they'll be dead or in camps 209 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 2: after Trump's inevitable victory. He wants you to panic. Jack 210 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,440 Speaker 2: is a veteran, and while he was not a great soldier, 211 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,839 Speaker 2: he is familiar with some very basic concepts of military strategy. 212 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 2: One of them that I bring up often because I 213 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 2: think it illustrates something important is the ODE loop. This 214 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 2: is the process by which people make decisions and act 215 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 2: in combat situations, and it stands for the different stages 216 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 2: of this process are observe, orient, decide. Act. If you 217 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 2: can disrupt any part of the ODE loop, you can 218 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 2: stop an opponent from taking effective action, from deciding, or 219 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:56,559 Speaker 2: from carrying out their actions. Jack and his peers want 220 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 2: you to panic. They want you to make plans to 221 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:00,679 Speaker 2: leave the country, to go to ground, to hide all 222 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 2: evidence of your political sympathies. Ideally, and I don't make 223 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 2: this allegation likely, he wants you to commit suicide. He 224 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 2: wants you to feel hopeless. He wants you to believe 225 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 2: that nothing matters any longer, because what matters most to 226 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 2: him is that you and people like you are out 227 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 2: of the picture. You know, either dead or so scared 228 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 2: that you are disrupted from acting in any concerted way 229 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 2: against him and his friends. Now, my job, as a 230 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 2: semi professional Cassandra, and as a guy who reports in 231 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 2: the far right, is to tell you this, a Trump 232 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 2: dictatorship is not inevitable. These fucks are weaker than they look, 233 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 2: and we will talk about all of that after some ads. 234 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 2: We're back now. I am not primarily an election guy, 235 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,559 Speaker 2: and my work has never focused on the horse race stuff. 236 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 2: The polls are bad for byis, and I have no 237 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:03,439 Speaker 2: interest in trying to elude anyone to thinking there's all 238 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 2: some big nationwide polling error. The only thing I will 239 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:10,320 Speaker 2: say about the Democratic Party's actual electoral chances is to 240 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:14,200 Speaker 2: note gently that online discourse has somewhat inflated the polling 241 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 2: fallout from the debate. Trump is now the odds on 242 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 2: bet but if you average the swing state polls, he 243 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 2: and Biden are generally within the margin of error pretty 244 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 2: much everywhere. Now you're going to get a different analysis 245 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 2: depending on which pole expert you trust. The new guys 246 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 2: at five thirty eight still have it mostly as a 247 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 2: coin flip, although one that slightly favors Trump. Nate Silver 248 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 2: himself gives Biden under a thirty percent chance, which is 249 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,440 Speaker 2: terrible and also about where Trump was in November of 250 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 2: twenty sixteen, and we all do know how that election ended. 251 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 2: People are often very bad at understanding probabilities, but saying 252 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 2: he's got a twenty nine percent chance of winning doesn't 253 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 2: mean it's impossible for him to win. 254 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 3: Right. 255 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 2: The situation is serious, but the future is not written, 256 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:56,560 Speaker 2: and you should remember that, for good and for ill, 257 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 2: the final results of this whole thing will come down 258 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 2: probably to one hundred thousand voters or so in five 259 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 2: or six states. Now, it's also worth me saying this. 260 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 2: Both of these candidates are old men, and statistically it 261 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 2: would not be unheard of or weird. If one of 262 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 2: them was dead before the election, Joe Biden could still 263 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 2: lose in a palace coup from the rest of his 264 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 2: party and get replaced. Anything can happen, and in US 265 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 2: politics it often does. Hey, everyone, Robert here. Two days 266 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 2: after I wrote this, something happened. There was an assassination 267 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 2: attempt against former President Trump. I am recording this a 268 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 2: couple of hours after it happened. A lot is unclear 269 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 2: at the moment, other than that somebody shot at him. 270 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 2: It looks like he was wounded with from glass shrapnel 271 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 2: when the teleprompter is hit. That Secret Service is currently 272 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 2: claiming a shooter appears to have been outside the venue 273 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 2: on a roof. Not much more I can say at 274 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 2: this point. I will note again there's a lot of 275 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 2: catastrophizing going on, people saying like, oh, this means he's 276 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 2: definitely gonna win reelection. When Reagan got shot that Trump, 277 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 2: you know, rocketed him to a reelection victory. You know, 278 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 2: that's possible, that could be what happens here. That's definitely 279 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:10,160 Speaker 2: a solid case to be made for that that's what 280 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 2: happened with Reagan. But that's not always what happens when 281 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 2: there are assassination attempts against sitting or former presidents. On 282 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 2: September twenty second, nineteen seventy five, Sarah Jane Moore, a 283 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 2: member of the Manson Family cult, attempted to assassinate President 284 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 2: Ford with a thirty eight revolver. He did not win reelection. 285 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 2: So you know, that's just as a note, like sometimes 286 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 2: what happens, it's impossible to say what's going to happen 287 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 2: with this, but if you're looking to past us history 288 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 2: for president, you're still kind of in a situation where, well, 289 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 2: really unclear what's going to go down. Now that's all 290 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 2: the horse race stuff I'm going to subject you to. 291 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 2: We are now going to move forward with the rest 292 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 2: of this episode trying to answer this question what happens 293 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 2: if Trump wins. Going to give you some very good 294 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 2: reasons not to freak the fuck out. The first has 295 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 2: to do with Project twenty twenty five. In short, this 296 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 2: Heritage Foundation document maps out a path to place the 297 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 2: whole federal bureaucracy under President Trump's control, effectively ending separation 298 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 2: of church and state, utilizing law enforcement to go after dissidents, 299 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 2: making recreational sects illegal, and criminalizing daily life for millions 300 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 2: of LGBT Americans. In short, it is a roadmap to 301 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,080 Speaker 2: Christian dictatorship. Now I'm not going to tell you shouldn't 302 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 2: find this chilling, but let's be clear about what Project 303 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five is. It is a nine hundred page 304 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 2: document written by a think tank that has lost a 305 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 2: lot of its influence and access to power over the 306 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 2: last ten years. The Heritage Foundation was once, as Molly 307 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 2: Ball described in an article for The Atlantic, the intellectual 308 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 2: backbone of the conservative movement. But during the Obama years, 309 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 2: the tremendous influence of the Heritage Foundation started to get 310 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 2: pruned back by establishment Republicans because it became clear that 311 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 2: in a lot of ways, these guys were dangerously out 312 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 2: of step with voters and kind of hard to work with. 313 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 2: The pullback actually began in twenty fourteen, when the Heritage 314 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 2: Foundation was suddenly banned from the Republicans Study Committee Retreat 315 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 2: over a conflict around a farm bill. Now, the think 316 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 2: tank remained influential, but its decline accelerated after Trump took office. 317 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 2: Some of this was the result of the fact that 318 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 2: conservative tanks have seen a general decline in influence from 319 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 2: the good old days the height of their power. The 320 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 2: Republican Party has won the popular vote in exactly one 321 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:31,159 Speaker 2: election this century, and as of twenty twenty two, we 322 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 2: have seen them go through two disastrous midterm elections in 323 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 2: a row and one disastrous, losing presidential election. Now, there's 324 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 2: an interesting piece of reporting on the Heritage Foundation's decline 325 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,719 Speaker 2: from twenty twenty two by the Washington Posts Jeff Stein 326 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 2: and Yegana Torbati. They quote one conservative on Capitol Hill 327 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 2: as saying people do not walk around in fear of 328 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:53,640 Speaker 2: the Heritage Foundation the way they did ten years ago. 329 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 2: And the main reason why is because Trump and the 330 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:59,480 Speaker 2: people around him were gaining a lot more influence. Right, 331 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:02,159 Speaker 2: these old things tankers just didn't hold the juice that 332 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:05,640 Speaker 2: they used to. Now, that article was published in response 333 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 2: to a switch in leadership for the think tank, which 334 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:10,520 Speaker 2: is how Kevin Roberts wound up in the position he occupies, 335 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 2: and why the Heritage Foundation pivoted from focusing on economic 336 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 2: concerns to shit like stoking panic over the existence of 337 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 2: trans people, critical race theory, all the culture war stuff 338 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 2: that we have been bombarded with now for years. This 339 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 2: is shit that fires up a chunk of the Republican base, 340 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 2: but the last three election cycles have shown it's dog 341 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 2: shit at getting regular Americans on board, because regular Americans 342 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:35,640 Speaker 2: look at this stuff and go while these people are 343 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 2: fucking out of their minds. I think the near panic 344 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:43,160 Speaker 2: around Project twenty twenty five is potentially useful. It has 345 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,880 Speaker 2: the potential to line a lot of voters up, and 346 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 2: crucially not for Joe Biden or for the Democrats, but 347 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:53,679 Speaker 2: against a Republican party that has almost entirely yielded to 348 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 2: the fascists in its midst But I also see a 349 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 2: lot of people describing Project twenty twenty five as Trump's 350 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 2: plan for when he takes office, and that's just not 351 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 2: what it is. These people will note that a lot 352 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 2: of former Trump people have worked for the Heritage Foundation, 353 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:09,919 Speaker 2: to which I say, he hates a lot of the 354 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 2: people who worked with him the last administration. Around this 355 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 2: is very common knowledge. Some people will also point out 356 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,160 Speaker 2: recently unearthed video of the director of Project twenty twenty 357 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 2: five back in twenty twenty three telling a right wing 358 00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 2: podcaster that Trump was very bought in with Project twenty 359 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 2: twenty five. And maybe that's true, but I don't feel 360 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 2: like you should necessarily believe this guy isn't just tooting 361 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 2: his own horn. Now. That kind of belief, though, does 362 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:39,879 Speaker 2: merge with statements you'll see from prominent progressive media figures, 363 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 2: people like Chris Hayes, who recently tweeted A big reason 364 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:44,959 Speaker 2: Project twenty twenty five is so salient is because the 365 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 2: actual Trump campaign has essentially zero policy apparatus and the 366 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 2: platform is just Trump social posts strung together. Now, I 367 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 2: like Chris, and I agree that it is important to 368 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 2: set the stakes here for voters and to talk about 369 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:02,439 Speaker 2: Project twenty twenty five because it's fucked up and we 370 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,200 Speaker 2: should do something about the fact that these people feel 371 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 2: confident putting out open plans to in democracy and institute 372 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:14,199 Speaker 2: a Christian nationalist dictatorship. But what Chris says is not 373 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 2: strictly accurate because Trump has a platform and it might 374 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:20,680 Speaker 2: have been influenced by Project twenty twenty five. I think 375 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 2: it probably was. But his platform is called Agenda forty seven, 376 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 2: and we have covered it on it could happen here 377 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 2: our daily news program. This is something you should care about. Trump. 378 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 2: In his Agenda forty seven plans, Trump advocates for mass 379 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,919 Speaker 2: deportations of migrants for an attack on the legal rights 380 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:41,040 Speaker 2: of the press and potentially the imprisonment of his political enemies. 381 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:44,359 Speaker 2: He threatens the use of special forces and airstrikes against 382 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 2: cartels on Mexico's sovereign soil. There's a lot of crazy 383 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 2: shit in Agenda forty seven. This is very serious stuff, 384 00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 2: and it is crucially the stuff Donald Trump has promised 385 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 2: to do if he gets elected. Now, a few days 386 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 2: before I wrote this, a former president took to truth 387 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 2: Social to officially disavow Project twenty twenty five. Now, do 388 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,159 Speaker 2: I think he's lying? Do I think he was aware 389 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 2: of it? Do I think he cribbed some of it 390 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 2: for Ajenda forty seven. Yeah, He's Donald Trump. He lies 391 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,159 Speaker 2: all the fucking time. But I do think it's noteworthy 392 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:19,919 Speaker 2: that he feels a need to publicly and vociferously disavow 393 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 2: Project twenty twenty five. And this is part of a 394 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 2: general split between Trump and the faction of the party 395 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:30,160 Speaker 2: who want a strongman dictator type but who aren't Christian nationalists, 396 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:34,200 Speaker 2: and the chunk who are. This is a natural cleavage, 397 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:36,399 Speaker 2: and we can see further evidence of this in the 398 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 2: fact that, thanks to Trump's intercession, for the first time 399 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 2: in quite a while, the Republican Party platform does not 400 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:45,159 Speaker 2: call for a national ban on abortion, And if you 401 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,160 Speaker 2: watch Trump during the debate, you can tell he's uncomfortable 402 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,600 Speaker 2: taking the standard right wing line on this because Trump 403 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 2: is not a conservative Christian and doesn't really give a 404 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:57,159 Speaker 2: shit about abortion. He also knows it's not a vote winner. 405 00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 2: You know, he can't entirely push back on the party 406 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 2: on this, but he's clearly not motivated to do so. 407 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,200 Speaker 2: Now does this mean Trump wouldn't sign such a ban 408 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,919 Speaker 2: into law. Now, of course not. But it means he 409 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 2: understands that while the Jack Posobics of the world have 410 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 2: their use to him, he needs a lot of votes 411 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 2: from people who rightly see those Republicans as scary. If 412 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 2: Trump does take power again, these natural cleavages will become 413 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 2: more pronounced, and Trump will also have to wield power 414 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,359 Speaker 2: in a severely divided country that does not like him 415 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 2: or his policies. One thing that nearly all recent polling 416 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,960 Speaker 2: has made clear is that Biden's historic unpopularity has not 417 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,439 Speaker 2: made Trump more popular. Poles generally show a ceiling of 418 00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 2: around forty two percent of the country who like the guy, 419 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:44,160 Speaker 2: and that ceiling is remarkably stable. There is also evidence 420 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 2: that these sudden media focus on Project twenty twenty five 421 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,439 Speaker 2: and the fact that Republicans are actively planning to in 422 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 2: democracy has cut into Trump's support. Right before I finish 423 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,640 Speaker 2: this episode, on Thursday, July eleventh, IPSOS published a poll 424 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,399 Speaker 2: showing Trump down a point from their last poll taken 425 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 2: after the which put him in Biden close to a tie. Now, 426 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 2: this still isn't great for Biden, because they all writes 427 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 2: this election should not be close. But I think a 428 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 2: lot of people have made the mistake of conflating disgust 429 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,879 Speaker 2: for Biden with surging support for Trump, and that just 430 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 2: is not what we're seeing. More evidence for this comes 431 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 2: from a recent ABC Your Voice poll which showed fifty 432 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 2: percent of the country having an unfavorable opinion of Biden 433 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:25,399 Speaker 2: and fifty nine percent having an unfavorable opinion of Trump. 434 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 2: Part of why so many of these outright fascists have 435 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,840 Speaker 2: gone mask off is that they see these numbers too. 436 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:33,879 Speaker 2: They know that this moment right now is their best shot, 437 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:37,439 Speaker 2: maybe ever, at taking this country, crushing their enemies and 438 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,199 Speaker 2: inflicting the pain that it is their only purpose in 439 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,640 Speaker 2: life to inflict, and they might win. They might get 440 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 2: to do that the Heritage Foundation is not at the 441 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 2: heart of the Trump campaign, but any step closer to 442 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,879 Speaker 2: total power for these people should ring alarm bells in 443 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 2: every heart and head in this country. Yet the severity 444 00:23:55,560 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 2: of the situation does not change this absolutely crucial fact. 445 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 2: The fascists snow the wind is no longer at their backs, 446 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 2: and I'm going to talk about that when we come 447 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 2: back from this ad break. Despite how confident Trump campaign 448 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,160 Speaker 2: and guys like Jack Bisobek are talking right now about 449 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,960 Speaker 2: their chances of winning, of dominating the government, of taking 450 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 2: control of America for generations, and purging the left, the 451 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:35,920 Speaker 2: reality is that their position is not nearly as stable 452 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 2: as it seems. And you know, part of why I 453 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:40,760 Speaker 2: think a lot of folks buy into a lot of 454 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,360 Speaker 2: folks on the left and liberals buy into the claims 455 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,840 Speaker 2: that the right is making right now about their guaranteed victory, 456 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 2: about their looming inevitable victory, is that Americans tend to 457 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,919 Speaker 2: be pretty self centered when it comes to politics, and 458 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 2: it is understandable that this nail biighter of an election 459 00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 2: in Joe Biden's calamitist debate performance has people here feeling 460 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 2: doomed and feeling like a new fascist world order is inevitable. 461 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,919 Speaker 2: If you feel that way, though, I urge you to 462 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 2: look around the world. Look to India, where authoritarian near 463 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:15,479 Speaker 2: dictator Narindramodi was just dealt a startling setback in the 464 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 2: Indian general election. His party, the BJP, failed to win 465 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 2: a majority for the first time since twenty fourteen. Now, 466 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,359 Speaker 2: this is not the end of Mody, but it is 467 00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 2: a shocking sign of where the wind is blowing and 468 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 2: the backlash that has started to form against the far 469 00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 2: right worldwide. In the UK, the Labor Party just won 470 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:37,880 Speaker 2: a landslide election against the Conservatives, tapping it into more 471 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,399 Speaker 2: than a dozen years of conservative power. And in France, 472 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:44,919 Speaker 2: the snap election called by President Emmanuel mccron inspired the 473 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,240 Speaker 2: creation of a popular left wing front against the far right, 474 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:53,040 Speaker 2: which defeated the far right in another historic election. Among 475 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,159 Speaker 2: other things, this new left alliance has promised to recognize 476 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 2: the state of Palestine and increase support for Ukrainian resistance 477 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 2: to Rush's invasion. I could go on Turkey's all, but 478 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 2: dictator President Erduwan has been bleeding support for years now 479 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 2: and recently suffered a massive setback in regional elections around 480 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:14,160 Speaker 2: the country. The opposition Republican People's Party took the five 481 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,400 Speaker 2: largest cities in the country in an upset vote, including 482 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:21,400 Speaker 2: the capital Istanbul, where Duin's party had invested massive resources. 483 00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 2: Now these upsets in India and Turkey are so worth 484 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 2: discussing because both countries are years into their own version 485 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:32,160 Speaker 2: of the nightmare scenario that Donald Trump Season two represents. Right, 486 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,719 Speaker 2: they voted their fascists into power. These guys took control 487 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 2: of the courts, imprisoned dissidents, harnessed civil violence for political gain. 488 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,800 Speaker 2: And yet even with all that, even with all the 489 00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:46,800 Speaker 2: power available to a modern security state, their hold on 490 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,639 Speaker 2: power is slipping, just as I read these words. For 491 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,440 Speaker 2: many years, neo Nazi activists sought to influence and build 492 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 2: support within the Republican Party and talked about hiding their 493 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,560 Speaker 2: power level as they did so. This is a term 494 00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 2: they cribbed from Dragon ball Z and it means, in essence, 495 00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 2: pretending not to be a crazy ass fascist in order 496 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 2: to get enough support from the normies that you can 497 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,159 Speaker 2: act like a crazy ass fascist with the power of 498 00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:15,040 Speaker 2: the state. Well, the masks are off now nobody is 499 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 2: hiding their power level anymore, and I am not so 500 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,280 Speaker 2: arrogant as to claim that I know that their defeat 501 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,720 Speaker 2: is around the corner. But I will tell you one thing. 502 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,680 Speaker 2: This is a make or break moment for the sons 503 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:29,080 Speaker 2: of bitches. If they fail now, they will find themselves 504 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 2: exposed in a country that knows precisely who and what 505 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,360 Speaker 2: they are. And this means we will have the opportunity 506 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,120 Speaker 2: to destroy them. Now how would we do that? Well, 507 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,119 Speaker 2: first off, I'm not going to give you a detailed, 508 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,159 Speaker 2: perfect roadmap for how you can participate in this and 509 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,040 Speaker 2: how we can easily destroy the fascists and the next 510 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:49,040 Speaker 2: you know, five or six minutes of a podcast. But 511 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 2: I do have some theories. I will elaborate on them 512 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,920 Speaker 2: more in subsequent episodes. And I want to emphasize right 513 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 2: now that this is possible because the cultural power of 514 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 2: the far right, which seems so mighty right now, actually 515 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,640 Speaker 2: does rest on a house of cards. The Republican Party 516 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:10,119 Speaker 2: today is funded primarily by a coalition of car dealers 517 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,720 Speaker 2: who donate more than any other profession because their job 518 00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 2: depends on being able to scam consumers, multi level marketing corporations, 519 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 2: supplement sales, affiliate marketing, megachurches, and of course are old 520 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 2: friends in the oil and gas industry. And there's a 521 00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:28,680 Speaker 2: lot of ways to attack these different pillars of right 522 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:32,320 Speaker 2: wing power, these people who are actually funding their media operations, 523 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:34,879 Speaker 2: who are funding a lot of these more radical candidates, 524 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,520 Speaker 2: and who are lobbying for changes in laws that hurt 525 00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,080 Speaker 2: you and help them. And again, I'm not going to 526 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:41,959 Speaker 2: be able to give a comprehensive list of how you 527 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 2: go about dismantling all of this. It is a formidable task, 528 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,040 Speaker 2: but you could do a lot of damage to the 529 00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,080 Speaker 2: power of the far right by regulating car sales and 530 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 2: punishing dealers who scam consumers, which is close to one 531 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 2: hundred percent of dealers. You can ban the sale of 532 00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:59,000 Speaker 2: unregulated supplements marketed as medical treatment's a thing that should 533 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:02,120 Speaker 2: be illegal, but effectctively as not. You can ban pyramid 534 00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,280 Speaker 2: schemes and prosecute the criminals who have made fortunes off 535 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,640 Speaker 2: of them. These are counterattacks that will improve daily life 536 00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 2: for huge numbers of voters and do functional damage to 537 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 2: the rights ability to move and maneuver. Now, I don't 538 00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,880 Speaker 2: mean to suggest that the only way to move on 539 00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:21,600 Speaker 2: any of those issues is just to vote right. Democrats 540 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 2: have had decades to fight back against this shit, and 541 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 2: they have failed by nearly every measure. But we have 542 00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:29,960 Speaker 2: the potential of a general strike coming up in twenty 543 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,720 Speaker 2: twenty eight if the UAW has their way, and the 544 00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,880 Speaker 2: catastrophic failure of the Democratic Party in this election has 545 00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:39,400 Speaker 2: I think created some space for new kinds of organizing. 546 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,880 Speaker 2: The last point I want to leave you with is 547 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,240 Speaker 2: one more piece of evidence that the juggernaut hurtling towards 548 00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,240 Speaker 2: us is not so hail and hardy as it seems. 549 00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 2: In April of this year, The Atlantic published an article 550 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,040 Speaker 2: based on analytics of the most popular right wing news 551 00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:57,960 Speaker 2: websites in the country. They wrote, this past February, readership 552 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 2: of the ten largest conservative websites was down forty percent 553 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 2: compared with the same month in twenty twenty, According to 554 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,240 Speaker 2: The Rightening, a newsletter that uses monthly data from Commscore, 555 00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 2: essentially the Nielsen ratings of the Internet to track right 556 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,720 Speaker 2: wing media. Some of the bigger names in the field 557 00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,840 Speaker 2: that have been pummeled the hardest. The Daily Caller lost 558 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,120 Speaker 2: fifty seven percent of its audience, Drudge Report, the Granddaddy 559 00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 2: of conservative aggregation, was down eighty one percent, and The 560 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,760 Speaker 2: Federalist founded just over a decade ago, lost a staggering 561 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:30,680 Speaker 2: ninety one percent. Now, these numbers are startlingly consistent across 562 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,360 Speaker 2: right wing media, and they are vastly worse than what 563 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 2: liberal and left leaning media has seen over the same 564 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,320 Speaker 2: time period. A number of ostensibly liberal sites like The 565 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,400 Speaker 2: Times have seen an increase in subscribers over the same period, 566 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 2: and I can confirm to you that here at Coolzone 567 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,640 Speaker 2: we have more listeners and subscribers than we did in 568 00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,160 Speaker 2: twenty twenty. Now, should you feel like there's nothing to 569 00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,680 Speaker 2: worry about just because the right wing media is taking 570 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,800 Speaker 2: a fall, No, But what this should be evidence of 571 00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,800 Speaker 2: is that, again, their support has always largely been built 572 00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,800 Speaker 2: on their ability to generate huge amounts of money and 573 00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 2: essentially buy attention, you know, And that's largely where guys 574 00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:11,240 Speaker 2: like Ben Shapiro have gotten their cultural power. And that's 575 00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 2: made Ben Shapiro a wealthy man, but it hasn't actually 576 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 2: brought him a lot of people who give a shit 577 00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,880 Speaker 2: what he has to say. The actual number of people 578 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,720 Speaker 2: paying attention to the scary motherfuckers that you see in 579 00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:25,720 Speaker 2: these clips that spread on liberal and lefty social media 580 00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,240 Speaker 2: is very small, and it's very small because these people 581 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 2: are crazy assholes who most of the folks around you, 582 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,880 Speaker 2: who are basically decent people, because most people are decent, 583 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:40,040 Speaker 2: fucking hate what we have seen here. What we are 584 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 2: seeing here is the shattering of an illusion, and the 585 00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,560 Speaker 2: popularity of a lot of right wing media was only 586 00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,480 Speaker 2: ever an illusion, popped up by an infusion of cash 587 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,520 Speaker 2: from billionaire fail suns desperate to hold on to their money. 588 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,560 Speaker 2: Most people don't like or trust these folks, and the 589 00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,600 Speaker 2: arrogance and certainty of victory that the Trump campaign and 590 00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:00,880 Speaker 2: the Sobics of the country have been showing now, well, 591 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:05,200 Speaker 2: it's caused them to expose themselves. There is precisely one 592 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,760 Speaker 2: thing you can always count on from fascists, and it's 593 00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 2: that they're dogshit at estimating risk. Time and time again, 594 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,320 Speaker 2: they convince themselves that they cannot be stopped in pick 595 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:18,160 Speaker 2: fights that they wind up losing. And that is perhaps 596 00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,640 Speaker 2: the most reliable thing that we can predict from their behavior, 597 00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:23,760 Speaker 2: and maybe the most comforting thing I can tell you 598 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:24,560 Speaker 2: going forward. 599 00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:24,880 Speaker 1: Now. 600 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 2: I also just retyped and re recorded this ending in 601 00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,040 Speaker 2: the wake of the assassination attempt against former President Trump, 602 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:33,800 Speaker 2: and I want to talk a little bit about that 603 00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,680 Speaker 2: before we go out, because that is certainly potentially a 604 00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 2: game changer. You know, people saying this could change the 605 00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:42,360 Speaker 2: whole election are not wrong, but at this point far 606 00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 2: from a guarantee. As well, as I said earlier, there 607 00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 2: have been assassination attempts against sitting presidents and former presidents 608 00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:52,040 Speaker 2: that have not moved the needle in an election, either 609 00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,240 Speaker 2: at least not in a really clear way in favor 610 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,840 Speaker 2: of the person the attempt was against. So we don't 611 00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,120 Speaker 2: know how this is going to play. One thing I 612 00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,840 Speaker 2: have seen in the immediate wake of this, within minutes 613 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,360 Speaker 2: of the attempt itself and video of it going up, 614 00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,720 Speaker 2: is liberals, I think mainly liberals, but also some people 615 00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 2: on the left immediately being like, this is a Reichstag 616 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:13,800 Speaker 2: fire situation, this is staged, This is obviously a fake attempt. 617 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,360 Speaker 2: I don't see any evidence of that in the video 618 00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,920 Speaker 2: that's out there. I do not believe this was faked. 619 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:23,080 Speaker 2: I do not need a conspiracy to believe that somebody 620 00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:26,120 Speaker 2: would want to take a shot at former President Trump. 621 00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:31,360 Speaker 2: The video does not show any clear weird signs that 622 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,560 Speaker 2: would make me suspect something odd was going on. One 623 00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:36,280 Speaker 2: of the things that's come out it looks like the 624 00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:39,280 Speaker 2: shooter was on a roof nearby, pretty clear evidence of 625 00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 2: that at this point. There are some reports from people 626 00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,960 Speaker 2: in the crowd who say that they pointed out the 627 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 2: guy on the roof to police and were basically ignored. 628 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,840 Speaker 2: You know, the police didn't do anything. That also does 629 00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:54,920 Speaker 2: not seem weird to me, and if it does to you. 630 00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,120 Speaker 2: I want to explain something about these events because I've 631 00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,320 Speaker 2: been to a number of events during presidential campaig with 632 00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:03,120 Speaker 2: the Secret Service is doing security and other kind of 633 00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,600 Speaker 2: large scale, you know, events like this where there's a 634 00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,360 Speaker 2: lot of different law enforcement agencies and at all of 635 00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,680 Speaker 2: them you will see snipers on the roof. It is 636 00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:12,480 Speaker 2: not hard to find them. These guys, some of them, 637 00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:15,040 Speaker 2: I assume are very well camouflaged. I'm not saying I 638 00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,000 Speaker 2: know I've seen everyone that's around at one of these things, 639 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,520 Speaker 2: but you see a lot of them, right, and so 640 00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:24,399 Speaker 2: do the cops. Right. It's just not abnormal, and there 641 00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:26,759 Speaker 2: are always a ton of law enforcement agencies. You know, 642 00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:29,879 Speaker 2: this was just another Trump rally, so relatively minor as 643 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,600 Speaker 2: events in you know, a presidential campaign go. But you 644 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,319 Speaker 2: still have state and local cops. You still have at 645 00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,400 Speaker 2: least the Secret Service, probably more than just the Secret 646 00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:42,320 Speaker 2: Service when it comes to federal agencies. So you know, conservatively, 647 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,239 Speaker 2: at minimum, probably at least a half dozen different law 648 00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:49,040 Speaker 2: enforcement agencies covering this event, right, And there's definitely going 649 00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:51,239 Speaker 2: to be some people there who know where all of 650 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:53,600 Speaker 2: the snipers are supposed to be, right, presumably within the 651 00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:55,960 Speaker 2: Secret Service. But that is not the average cop on 652 00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:59,080 Speaker 2: the ground. The average cop covering this event, especially walking 653 00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:01,920 Speaker 2: around doing foot patrol, does not know where federal law 654 00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:05,920 Speaker 2: enforcement has every single sniper set up, and they are like, anyway, 655 00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 2: I started this episode talking about the normalcy bias, right, Well, 656 00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,120 Speaker 2: that's not just a thing that you can trip you 657 00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,400 Speaker 2: up when you are trying to predict the future months 658 00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:16,640 Speaker 2: or years in advance. It is a thing that can 659 00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,799 Speaker 2: trip you up predicting something a minute in advance. Right. 660 00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:23,400 Speaker 2: You see, as a cop walking through this event, someone says, hey, 661 00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:24,839 Speaker 2: there's a guy up on the roof with a gun. Well, 662 00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 2: you've seen a half dozen guys on the roof with guns. 663 00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,480 Speaker 2: You've been told there's a bunch of different Secret Service 664 00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:33,520 Speaker 2: and DHS sniper teams up there. Maybe your agency has 665 00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,360 Speaker 2: some guys up on the roof you know, sharpshooters not 666 00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:38,759 Speaker 2: at all weird. You go, yeah, it's maybe You even 667 00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,000 Speaker 2: see the guy and the pictures I've seen, looks like 668 00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:42,840 Speaker 2: he was wearing camo. Looks like he was wearing the 669 00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,200 Speaker 2: kind of combat gear that cops wear, but also that 670 00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:49,880 Speaker 2: anyone can buy, because cops look like you know a 671 00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:51,560 Speaker 2: lot of people who just buy this shit and do 672 00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,239 Speaker 2: it recreationally, you know, go go shooting and training in 673 00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 2: the woods or whatever. Like a lot of it's not 674 00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:59,200 Speaker 2: hard to gain access to gear that at a glance 675 00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:01,719 Speaker 2: would look like a cop. And my guess is that 676 00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:05,440 Speaker 2: this guy counted on the normalcy bias. He figured my 677 00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:07,520 Speaker 2: best shot at being able to get away with this 678 00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:09,600 Speaker 2: is if I post up on a roof somewhere and 679 00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:13,480 Speaker 2: assume that the cops that spot me immediately won't know 680 00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:16,640 Speaker 2: right away what I am, right, And that does seem 681 00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:18,600 Speaker 2: to be what happened at this moment, And you know, 682 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,320 Speaker 2: I take that as a lot of things very unclear. 683 00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:23,759 Speaker 2: This is going to again affect the election, but take 684 00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:26,840 Speaker 2: it as a warning against falling for the normalcy bias, 685 00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:31,640 Speaker 2: because just because something seems like it's not weird, like, 686 00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,680 Speaker 2: it's not a sign of a change of something very 687 00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:38,160 Speaker 2: different about to go down doesn't mean it isn't. Yeah, 688 00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:40,600 Speaker 2: you can never trust your assumptions, and that goes both 689 00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:43,600 Speaker 2: with both ways. With this, I am seeing a lot 690 00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:47,000 Speaker 2: of understandable catastrophizing. This is a terrifying thing. I am 691 00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,560 Speaker 2: someone who's about to head into the RNC not thrilled 692 00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:54,520 Speaker 2: that this has happened. But that doesn't mean we know 693 00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:56,719 Speaker 2: what the fallout is going to be. It doesn't mean 694 00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:58,839 Speaker 2: we know what the reaction and the result is. I mean, 695 00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:02,080 Speaker 2: for among other things, this is not necessarily fully optimistic. 696 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,240 Speaker 2: But I don't know how much this moves the needle 697 00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:06,960 Speaker 2: because I don't know how many people who can be 698 00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,719 Speaker 2: convinced would be swayed by something like this, For how 699 00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:11,960 Speaker 2: many people this could change their opinion on the election, 700 00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:14,960 Speaker 2: and how many people are going to believe that this 701 00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,640 Speaker 2: was real and not. You know, I've even seen people 702 00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,160 Speaker 2: claiming that like, yeah, Trump bladed himself the way a 703 00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:23,400 Speaker 2: wrestler would. Again, I think that's all nonsense. It's just 704 00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:26,839 Speaker 2: really unclear how people are going to react, right. It's 705 00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,600 Speaker 2: not worthless to look back to you know, there's an 706 00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,799 Speaker 2: attempt on Reagan to try and see and other assassination 707 00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:35,880 Speaker 2: attempts and how they've affected elections. But all of that 708 00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:39,080 Speaker 2: shit happened prior to the modern era of social media. 709 00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:41,760 Speaker 2: All of that shit happened prior to everyone's brains getting 710 00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,600 Speaker 2: broken by the Internet. So I'm not going to tell 711 00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:47,080 Speaker 2: you this is a good time. I'm not going to 712 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,440 Speaker 2: tell you things are chill. They the fuck aren't. But 713 00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:53,360 Speaker 2: i am going to tell you the future is not written, 714 00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:58,360 Speaker 2: and don't panic until next time. I'm Robert Evans and 715 00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:01,000 Speaker 2: this is It Could Happen Here back later this week 716 00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:02,760 Speaker 2: with coverage of the Republican Convention. 717 00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,240 Speaker 1: It Could Happen Here as a production of cool Zone Media. 718 00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:14,120 Speaker 1: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 719 00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:17,279 Speaker 1: coolzonemedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 720 00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:20,480 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can 721 00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:23,200 Speaker 1: find sources for It Could Happen Here, updated monthly at 722 00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:26,480 Speaker 1: Coolzonemedia dot com slash sources. Thanks for listening.