WEBVTT - Jobs Report, Fed Outlook, Dimon’s Emergency Surgery 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:02.960 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.040 --> 0:00:05.520 Jason Kelly. We're here every day bringing you the latest 0:00:05.519 --> 0:00:09.800 news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:13.480 all harnessing the power of Bloomberg Business Week reporters and editors, 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:16.720 not to mention our journalists and analysts more than a 0:00:16.800 --> 0:00:19.520 hundred and twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:22.439 on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. You can also 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:24.919 listen to our radio show weekdays at two pm Eastern 0:00:25.000 --> 0:00:28.960 only on Bloomberg Radio the last few hours of the week. 0:00:29.600 --> 0:00:31.159 They are going to be interesting when it comes to 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:34.159 the markets, because we're talking about the virus. We're talking 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:37.400 about jobs Day. We've got a couple of experts, some 0:00:37.479 --> 0:00:39.720 of our favorites, who really weigh on on the job's report, 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:42.519 but we're gonna be asking them how the virus is 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:45.839 affecting employment as well. Those numbers not reflected in the 0:00:45.960 --> 0:00:48.720 latest report very much, but we know they're thinking. And 0:00:48.760 --> 0:00:49.880 one of the things you're gonna hear me say a 0:00:49.920 --> 0:00:51.839 lot over the next few hours is what was important 0:00:51.880 --> 0:00:55.040 about the strength going into the virus concerns that's what 0:00:55.120 --> 0:00:58.000 that labor market or labor report shows us, and that's 0:00:58.000 --> 0:01:00.240 why it's really important. But I look forward to hearing 0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:04.280 you say that. Okay, yeah, try many times. All right, 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:07.680 wa and wait uh all I said wait, you know 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:11.480 you said wait what wait, wait what? Yeah, exactly, let's 0:01:11.480 --> 0:01:13.880 try that again. Um. When I read in this morning 0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:17.399 Jamie Diamond emergency heart surgery, I was like, what's going on? 0:01:17.480 --> 0:01:20.319 I know. Yeah, when that headline crossed last night certainly 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:23.120 sent people scurrying for their Bloomberg churnals to try and 0:01:23.160 --> 0:01:25.959 figure out. Look at that bench once again. Obviously, the 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:29.120 first concern is Jamie. Okay, he appears to be but 0:01:29.280 --> 0:01:32.640 it was emergency surgery, emergency heart surgery. Uh, one of 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:36.240 the best known and uh most watch names on Wall Street. 0:01:36.240 --> 0:01:38.480 For sure. We'll get into what the implications of that 0:01:38.520 --> 0:01:40.720 are for him and obviously for the band, and talk 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:44.320 about that bench. Honoring women. International Women's Day. Check your calendars, folks, 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:47.319 it's not only about pushing your clocks ahead one hour, 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:49.760 but it's International Women's Day on Sunday, right, and we're 0:01:49.800 --> 0:01:51.480 going to catch up with a couple of c e 0:01:51.640 --> 0:01:54.520 o s, several of whom have been on this show before, 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:57.680 including Jillian meet see over at Kd's and Jessica Haniger 0:01:57.760 --> 0:01:59.760 one of our faiths. She used to see you at noonday, 0:01:59.800 --> 0:02:02.280 and and wrap it up with Kate Crater, one of 0:02:02.320 --> 0:02:05.920 our favorite just people overall, going to talk about the 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:08.000 climate and a little bit about noodles. I think we're 0:02:08.000 --> 0:02:10.079 gonna ask about that. I had some delicious noodles for lunch. 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:11.600 All Right, we gotta talk about the markets. I'm happy 0:02:11.600 --> 0:02:14.600 about your noodles, but let's talk about the markets. Let's 0:02:14.639 --> 0:02:17.160 set the business week agenda. Vildonna high Rick is with 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:19.160 us Cross that's a reporter at Bloomberg News in our 0:02:19.200 --> 0:02:22.880 interactive broker studio, along with Dave Wilson, our stocks editor 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:25.000 here at Bloomberg News. All Right, Dave, talk us through 0:02:25.000 --> 0:02:26.960 this market. What are we seeing? You know, I gotta 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:29.960 tell you. Here's the comparison that really kind of blows 0:02:30.040 --> 0:02:33.760 my mind. Okay, if you look at the price of 0:02:33.840 --> 0:02:37.160 the thirty year treasury bond. Now we usually focus on yield, 0:02:37.360 --> 0:02:39.680 and obviously we got record blow yields in the thirty year, 0:02:39.760 --> 0:02:43.560 the ten year pretty much across the board. The price 0:02:44.040 --> 0:02:46.840 of the thirty year bond is up six point three 0:02:46.919 --> 0:02:50.520 percent today. That's up more than all but one stock 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:53.920 in the SMP five hundred. So it just goes to 0:02:53.960 --> 0:02:57.120 show you what's going on today is really as much 0:02:57.120 --> 0:02:59.720 as anything of function of what's happening in the bond 0:02:59.800 --> 0:03:02.600 more market as much as the stock market. I mean, 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:05.120 you look at you know, why is it that financial 0:03:05.200 --> 0:03:09.840 shares are doing as badly as they are the biggest banks. 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:12.919 I mean, it's not just Jamie Diamond, and that's part 0:03:12.960 --> 0:03:15.800 of it, because JP Morgan's down more than its peers, 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:18.480 It's off by almost six percent. But you look at 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:22.440 Bank of America, City Group, Wells Fargo declines more than 0:03:22.480 --> 0:03:24.799 four percent for all of them, and you know it's 0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:27.960 tied into the idea. You know, yields going down means 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:30.680 interest rates are going down, means it gets harder for 0:03:30.720 --> 0:03:33.600 the banks to make money. We've seen this story before 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:36.800 in Europe and Japan where they had negative rates. I mean, 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:39.680 it is really something to watch, especially with what's happening 0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:42.280 in treasuries. All Right, vill Dona Hier, coming in here 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:46.480 looking across assets with your team here at Bloomberg, what's 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:48.640 the one thing that's really standing out as you talk 0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:51.400 to investors and you talk to your colleagues. Well, I 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:53.880 was hoping to look back at this entire week with 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:56.320 you guys, because if we think about what's driven markets 0:03:56.360 --> 0:03:58.920 this week, at one point it was Joe Biden. At 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:01.360 another point it was tomism over the Fed, then it 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:04.280 was pessimism over the Fed. Then it was optimism over 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:07.480 the government's response, then pessimism over the government's response. And 0:04:07.520 --> 0:04:10.680 so what investors have been telling me really is nobody 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:13.520 really knows what's going on. It's really really hard to 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:16.560 try to price in what exactly is going to be 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:19.839 happening in terms of the coronavirus impact, which is why 0:04:19.920 --> 0:04:23.039 you have investors shrugging off the job support this morning, 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:27.039 something that would typically move markets. Yeah, exactly. And you 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:29.160 know what's interesting, I think was it yesterday that we 0:04:29.160 --> 0:04:31.960 were looking at the weekly tally and or the day 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:34.359 before we're still seeing gains for the week overall, But 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:37.560 that's not the case now because of another day of 0:04:37.560 --> 0:04:40.159 selling today. Well, it's also a reminder, and I'm glad 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:42.240 you brought up that sort of back in forth Fieldana, 0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:44.400 because you know John Author's when he was on with 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:46.920 David Weston just a few minutes ago, made a really important, 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:49.839 but you know seemingly obvious point, which is it's a 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:54.360 reminder this week feels like that the markets ultimately are 0:04:55.360 --> 0:04:58.279 the reflection of humans in many ways, and there is 0:04:58.320 --> 0:05:01.640 a legitimate uncertainty and there's a legitimate dare I say 0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:04.400 fear that is driving a lot of this with little 0:05:04.400 --> 0:05:07.400 doses of optimism, little spites of optimism coming through. So 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:09.599 Monday we have an update, and then we have a 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:11.120 down date, then we have an update, then we have 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:13.839 a down date. So it's really hard and speaking for 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:16.080 me in speaking with people, I asked them, is it 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:19.280 time to buy the dip? It's really really hard for 0:05:19.279 --> 0:05:21.960 for anybody to to make that case right now, just 0:05:22.040 --> 0:05:25.360 because you're maybe a value guy like pot because people 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:27.440 have been so out of favor that I mean, there 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:31.840 are some partifying correct and talking with John Thompson yesterday, 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:34.000 if I was a capital manament, yeah, but you have 0:05:34.120 --> 0:05:36.120 to be okay with the idea that you are not 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:38.840 going to get the low necessary right because things are 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:40.960 going to be that violatile. I mean, you look at 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:43.480 the travel stocks today. It's a perfect example. They were 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:47.000 beaten up earlier today now you're seeing more of a 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:50.720 mixed bag I mean, you've actually got airlines higher United 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:53.039 It's up three and a half percent, and yet the 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:56.080 cruise lines are down, the hotels are down. You know, 0:05:56.320 --> 0:06:00.800 booking holdings in online travel is down. So you know, 0:06:00.960 --> 0:06:03.560 this is a market that really is is kind of 0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:06.800 trying to figure out where we go from here as 0:06:06.880 --> 0:06:09.279 much as anything, and struggling to do it with the 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:12.080 fluctuations that we're seeing in share prices. And I think 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:13.920 the problem is we don't have any clarity still about 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:16.280 the virus, Like just the conversations that we have around 0:06:16.279 --> 0:06:17.880 the newsroom, it's like, wow, did you hear about this? 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:19.240 Did you hear about this? And then every saying but 0:06:19.360 --> 0:06:20.760 we still haven't done a lot of testing, like we 0:06:20.839 --> 0:06:23.760 don't know. Other folks are saying, I think it's overblown. 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:25.680 I think we're going to be okay, And I do 0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:27.719 think this is something that you will be able to 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:30.240 at some point book end. Here was the start, and 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:32.640 we're starting to see less cases. It's being contained, and 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:34.760 I do think there is the potential for a v 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:37.880 shaped recovery where when people start to see the end 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:39.640 of this. But that's the problem. We just don't know 0:06:39.640 --> 0:06:41.880 where the end As far as book ending goes. I mean, 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:45.400 one sort of detail that comes to mind. Starbucks has 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:50.719 reopened of the Chinese coffee shops that were closed because 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:53.640 of the coronavirus. So it's already starting to happen there. 0:06:53.839 --> 0:06:56.080 Of course, it's gonna be a while before you see 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:58.080 a similar sort of recovery around you know what we're 0:06:58.080 --> 0:06:59.960 talking about it yesterday we've seen a lot of the 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:02.800 ones from that company, and so that's you can see 0:07:02.800 --> 0:07:04.400 that we know in terms of what China's doing and 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:06.400 book ending again, all right, thank you both so much. Phil, 0:07:06.440 --> 0:07:09.640 Donna Hyrick, cross set reporter for Bloomberg. A busy week, 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:19.000 we know. Dave Wilson, stocks editor, Uh, that is so true. 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:23.240 Charlie Pellet is dancing in the studio and that's exactly 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:26.320 how we fail feel. Um. We did get the monthly 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:28.760 jobs report US hiring surges. It was the biggest game 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:31.600 since May of twenty eight. But keep in mind, yes 0:07:31.640 --> 0:07:33.680 it shows a labor market on solid footing, but it's 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:36.280 all before the spread of the virus and the concerns. 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:38.400 So as we've been staying around here at Bloomberg, it's 0:07:38.400 --> 0:07:40.800 stale data. So what do you need to know about 0:07:40.840 --> 0:07:43.119 the labor market and the economy. Joining us once again 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:47.480 is Sendet Caffezi, chief economist at Lending Tree, here back 0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:50.440 in our Bloomberg Interactor Broker studio. Really really nice to 0:07:50.520 --> 0:07:54.360 be here with you once again. So it is whoops, 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:59.520 my mic just felt it is still data, stay stale data, right, Yeah, 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:02.920 I mean it's uh, it's irrelevant in a way, but 0:08:03.000 --> 0:08:06.360 it's important that we have a strong label market going 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:09.560 into this crisis. Uh So it does, you know, give 0:08:09.680 --> 0:08:14.760 us some room or some uh some cushion, uh, you know, 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:18.239 as we deal with this health crisis that's affecting the economy. Alright, 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:22.320 So knowing all that going into it, what jumped out 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:25.920 at you in terms of specific pockets of strength it 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:27.960 we always count on you and you always deliver to 0:08:28.040 --> 0:08:29.640 really sort of take us down the level. What do 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:32.760 you see? Yeah, So before coronavirus, the big story of 0:08:32.800 --> 0:08:35.559 the economy was that we were having a really mild 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:39.200 winter that was boosting a lot of weather sensitive sectors, 0:08:39.600 --> 0:08:42.640 particularly the housing markets. We've seen big jumps in housing 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:46.040 starts and in this report and January's report both had 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:49.800 construction jobs over forty tho. So that was kind of 0:08:49.800 --> 0:08:52.000 the detail that stood out to me. Well, and I 0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:53.720 want to go back to this whole idea of that 0:08:53.760 --> 0:08:57.040 we went into the virus on rather strong footing, and 0:08:57.080 --> 0:08:59.080 how much better than if we said you were going 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:00.880 to bring it up a lot, because I think it's 0:09:00.880 --> 0:09:02.800 a solid point and I heard it this morning, like 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:05.840 listening into Bloomberg Radio, this whole idea that if we 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:08.960 had gone into it on a weaker footing, this could 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:11.679 be potentially more problematic. It would probably hear the R 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:14.160 word talked about a lot more recession. So how do 0:09:14.200 --> 0:09:17.720 you see that going into this virus on strong footing, 0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:21.520 perhaps more solid foundation, How does that help us perhaps 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:24.920 on the other side when we get out of the virus. Yeah, 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:27.319 So I one, I don't actually have like a recession 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:31.240 probability for this particular crisis, but I don't, But I 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:33.360 would say it would be higher if we were going 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:37.120 in on week of footing, right, um, and then coming 0:09:37.120 --> 0:09:39.240 out the other side. It's really difficult to say. It 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:43.080 really depends on the persistence, uh, and how widespread the 0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:47.440 crisis gets. But you know, certainly strong housing demand which 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:50.400 is probably going to continue because rates are now even 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:53.199 lower than they were before, so that should be something 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:57.360 that supports the economy depending on how much this this 0:09:57.600 --> 0:10:01.520 health scares spreads like wanting at each other. Such an 0:10:01.520 --> 0:10:04.040 important point, well, I said to Jason, and I tweeted 0:10:04.040 --> 0:10:05.920 out because I was listening to Surveillance this morning. They 0:10:05.920 --> 0:10:07.240 had a guest on it and they said, you know, 0:10:07.440 --> 0:10:09.560 the financial folks want to talk about the markets and 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:12.640 what's going on. Doctors want to talk about refinancing their mortgages, 0:10:12.880 --> 0:10:15.040 which I find it's such a great way of summing 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:16.800 up what's going on. I mean, there is a reality 0:10:16.880 --> 0:10:19.840 and upside to this low rate environment, especially if you 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:22.360 own a home. Yeah, I mean it's the greatest time 0:10:22.400 --> 0:10:26.320 in history ever to refinance a mortgage. Rates are down, 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:29.719 you know, forty basis points from just three months ago, 0:10:30.360 --> 0:10:33.120 and really with the moves yesterday and today are probably 0:10:33.120 --> 0:10:36.199 going to be down fifties sixty basis points, which means 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:39.319 even if you refinance three months ago, you can save 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:43.000 even more money by refinancing again today. For each hundred 0:10:43.080 --> 0:10:46.160 thousand dollars that you've borrowed versus three months ago, say 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:49.040 forty fifty basis points decline in rates, you can save 0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:51.680 an extra ten thousand dollars over the life of the loan, 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:54.800 which is big money. Yeah, and so what are you here? 0:10:54.800 --> 0:10:57.480 I mean, you guys do an amazing amount of research. 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:00.360 I know you also have a window. One of the 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:02.200 reasons and one of the other reasons we love talking 0:11:02.240 --> 0:11:04.199 to you other than you'd be very smart, is you 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:08.560 have so much data at your fingertips through your platform 0:11:08.679 --> 0:11:13.840 to understand customer behavior. Given what we know about the 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:16.920 uncertainty the economy right now, what are you hearing what's 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:19.200 sort of bubbling up through that data? Yeah, so our 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:22.120 data is mortgage data, A lot of it is refinance data. 0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:26.240 So I'll say our data is actually um kind of 0:11:26.280 --> 0:11:28.800 not telling us what's really going on in the acroning, right, 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:31.920 because we're seeing volumes up just for this week compared 0:11:31.920 --> 0:11:35.480 to a week the same week last year, up six percent, right, 0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:38.040 and it's because of the fallen rates. Uh. And even 0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:42.000 January and February were already up to so it's already 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:45.080 a very strong time for like mortgage and refinancing, and 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:48.400 it's gotten even stronger, which is, you know, probably the 0:11:48.440 --> 0:11:51.080 opposite of what's happening in most of the economy. Well, 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:53.960 but I do have to ask you, like synthesize that 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:59.040 with the fear candidly that's out there. At some point, 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:02.120 do you anticipate paid that some of that enthusiasm to 0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:07.599 refinance wears off a little bit because people are more 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:11.120 for lack of better terms, sort of existentially worried about 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:14.880 like civilization, for you know, not to be too over 0:12:14.920 --> 0:12:19.520 the top about it. I mean, yeah, I think that's 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:21.920 a that's a fair point. Uh, what I will say, 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:24.480 I think because when you refinance one, you don't really 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:26.679 have to interact with anybody. You can just sit at 0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:29.480 home and do it. It's one of the few economic 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:31.840 actions that you can already say the house. So it's 0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:34.320 not like you're having out and buying you know, you're 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:35.760 not sort of putting a lot of money to work. 0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:38.400 In fact, you're probably saving a little money ultimately. Yeah, yeah, 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:40.880 you're saving a good amount of money. Um. The bigger 0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:44.240 risk is on actually on like home sales where you 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:47.000 know one you know, I was originally the whole week 0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:49.600 I've been talking about, Hey, people won't want to go 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:53.239 out and like look at homes, uh, you know, social distancing. 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:55.560 But the other interesting thing that I've picked up the 0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:58.000 past couple of days is that people who are selling 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:01.199 their houses don't want. Stranger is walking through the house 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:04.800 touching everything. Um, so there's actually going to be both 0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:09.040 a demand and a supply constraint on home sales if 0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:12.080 this continues and gets bigger and bass right, So somebody 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:13.959 who wants to make a first time purchase, like there 0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:16.199 might not be the inventory because people are like, I 0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:19.040 don't want it my home. Yeah, totally. Yeah, it's interesting. 0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:23.760 I just saw a stat about how much attendance at 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:27.760 open houses has fallen in New York City. Already, all 0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:30.280 right to die, kept feezy. Always great to catch up 0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:34.600 with you, chief economists. The sweatshirt, I know you look great. 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:38.440 We're making it casual Friday for somewhere. Mike Bloomberg, another 0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:41.920 alum of Johns Hopkins, is smiling. Thank you so much 0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:45.120 and great to see you. You are listening to Bloomberg 0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:47.360 Business Week. Well, let's move to one of the most 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:49.600 read stories of the day, and that has to do 0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:54.800 with Jamie Diamond, the CEO and chairman of Morgan Morgan 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:58.600 JP Morgan Cheapers. It's been a crazy week. Michael Moore 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:02.520 is with this US finance team leader. Uh, tell us 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:05.559 what happened with Jamie? I mean, this was a shock. 0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:07.960 I mean they the bank had their investor day last 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:10.760 week and he was on stage as always holding fourth 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:14.680 but yesterday before work, had some chest pains and took 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:17.360 himself straight to the hospital rather than going into the office. 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:21.000 And that probably saved him because this is a very 0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:25.160 acute condition. Um. And you know a lot of people 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:27.080 die before they even make it to the hospital if 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:31.160 they don't think it's something serious. Uh. But luckily doctors 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:34.480 were able to catch it early and uh repair it. 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:37.560 Has he had any heart problems before, or heart related problems, 0:14:37.840 --> 0:14:40.200 not that they were aware of. He had broke cancer 0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:43.280 several years ago and had to take some time away, 0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:47.640 but this seemed to be an acute thing, right, Um, 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:52.480 So happily he seems to be recovering and is doing okay. Uh. Meanwhile, 0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:54.760 it has brought to the four one of the most 0:14:54.840 --> 0:14:59.120 probably talked about succession issues on Wall Street, maybe across 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:01.240 all of corporate and mayor Rika. You know, it's been 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:03.600 a running joke, as you know better than I that 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:05.600 every time he's asked when he's gonna retire, he says 0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:07.560 in five years. He said that, I believe over the 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:10.840 last six years. Uh, but what does this mean, what 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:13.800 are people talking about now in the wake of this, 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:17.880 UH of the surgery. Yeah, I think you know, they 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:20.200 are talking about kind of on two tracks. There's the 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:23.720 short term, which is Gordon Smith and Daniel Pinto or 0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:26.640 the co presidents. They're kind of stepping in and running 0:15:26.680 --> 0:15:29.480 day to day while he's out. UM. You know, the 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:32.560 expectation right now is that he'll be back and that 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:36.840 he UH. Typically it takes a month of recovery, according 0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:40.200 to the doctors we talked to. UH. But you know, 0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:42.920 you never know someone's state of mind or you know, 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:46.040 how how things progress, so UH in the short term, 0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:50.119 it's those two. Longer term there has been the succession 0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:53.200 plan of UH and as you mentioned, with Jamie always 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:56.160 saying five years, you never really know when that's real 0:15:56.200 --> 0:16:00.440 and when it's not. UM. So Marian Ake and Gen 0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:03.720 peep Sack, we're seen as too that we're being groomed. 0:16:03.800 --> 0:16:06.960 In that longer term. They both have served as chief 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:11.040 financial Officer. They somewhat swapped roles last year to try 0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:14.640 to get them both broader experiences. But they're, you know, 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:18.320 both less than a year into that swap and UH 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:21.480 and are seen perhaps needing a little more time so 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:25.080 younger than Smith and Pinto right right by about a decade. 0:16:25.120 --> 0:16:29.040 So uh so that does seem like there are kind 0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:31.880 of two tracks here, the short term issue and what 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:34.880 this means for the long term timing. Like you do 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:37.520 wonder too, if you know, you know, Jamie Diamond comes 0:16:37.560 --> 0:16:41.160 back and kind of you know, maybe I'm reading too 0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:42.960 much into it, but I've seen enough individuals where they 0:16:43.000 --> 0:16:45.520 go through, you know, an illness or something and they 0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:47.640 kind of rethink, you know, how do I want to 0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:49.280 spend the rest of my life? And I do wonder this. 0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:51.560 You know, he has been with what fifteen years with 0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:54.480 JP Morgan. You think about what he did and steering 0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:57.320 the firm through the crisis and and really you know, 0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:00.400 the financial community looks to him for Q when we're 0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:03.080 in a state of financial uncertainty. But I do wonder 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:06.800 you know, what's to come. Yeah, you do wonder that. Um, 0:17:06.840 --> 0:17:09.720 you know, everyone reacts to it differently. For Lloyd Blank 0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:12.200 find joking that you know, when he went through cancer, 0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:14.720 he said, I think you're supposed to learn something from this, 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:17.560 But I didn't get that moment. Well on some double 0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:19.280 down because they're like I love this job. I'm just 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:22.679 know or whatever, and Diamond has always expressed that he 0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:26.040 loves that perch. It's a very powerful seat. He has 0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:29.080 in the last five years moved two more kind of 0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:34.359 like a policy focus of you know, expressing not just 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:37.240 what's good for banking, but you know, his ideas for 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:42.200 fixing America or politics, like you do wonder right constantly 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:45.479 whether he would run for president um and it's because 0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:48.639 he's been out there publicly on some issues, so he 0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:51.600 does seem to like that perch, right, And even if 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:54.240 we do see a change in administration, you do wonder 0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:56.840 whether he, you know, does take some sort of job 0:17:57.160 --> 0:17:59.560 in a Biden or probably not a Sanders, but you know, 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:04.120 potential a Biden administration. Uh so what happens next sort 0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:06.800 of wait and see. At this point, right, a month, 0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:09.120 you said, is the typical recovery, Yeah, I mean, and 0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:11.800 you know, this is of course complicated by the fact 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:15.400 that you have this huge logistical problem of the coronavirus 0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:18.639 and people and JP Morgan splitting up trading times and 0:18:18.720 --> 0:18:23.200 having people work from home. So certainly that does complicate 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:26.480 things at the moment. But yes, the typical recovery is 0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:28.800 at least a month, and you know, after that it's not, 0:18:29.280 --> 0:18:31.800 you know, fully in the clear. You have to monitor 0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.080 your blood sure and so forth, and these are not easy, 0:18:34.119 --> 0:18:36.840 low stress jobs to say the least. All right, Michael Moore, 0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:39.920 thank you so much, US finance team leader looking after 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:43.679 all things Wall Street for us here at Bloomberg. Some 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:46.560 great context on Jamie Dimond, and I should say we 0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:51.119 wish Jamie, oh absolutely what a titan in this business. 0:18:51.400 --> 0:18:53.480 And you know someone who has been at the four 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:58.560 recovery you alluded to during one of the most uh 0:18:58.840 --> 0:19:02.359 difficult times in financial market. Yeah, Chippy Morgan chairs by 0:19:02.400 --> 0:19:04.880 the way, down a seven point at their lows today, 0:19:04.960 --> 0:19:07.720 still down about six point three percent, but they've bounced 0:19:07.720 --> 0:19:12.080 off a little bit off of that low level. Thanks Sex. 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:17.760 All right, well, that's up for debate. But farmers definitely 0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:24.159 fighting our fixes a thank you anything. Tractors are alright, well, 0:19:24.200 --> 0:19:27.680 farmers are definitely fighting over fixes when it comes to UM, 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:29.760 the company that makes so many of them. John Dear 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:32.760 that story in our Bloomberg Business Week magazine, currently on 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:35.320 newstands on the Terminal and at Bloomberg dot com. Let's 0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:38.159 get into it with Bloomberg News Projects and Investigations. Reporter 0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:43.240 Peter Waldman. He is in our San Francisco bureau along 0:19:43.280 --> 0:19:45.879 with our Bloomberg Business Week editor Jill Webber. He's in 0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:48.960 our Interactor Broker studio right here in New York. Um, Peter, 0:19:49.080 --> 0:19:54.479 fascinating story set the scene. What exactly is going on? Sure? Um, Well, 0:19:54.520 --> 0:19:57.800 across the Midwest, you've got farmers who are accustomed to 0:19:57.920 --> 0:20:02.360 repairing their own machines for deck, It's in decades and decades. Um. 0:20:02.400 --> 0:20:05.400 They're quite manually inclined and like to do their own 0:20:05.400 --> 0:20:12.440 mechanical work. Nowadays, with computers digitization UM, software controls literally 0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:17.600 modem under the farmers tractors seat. Uh, it's much harder 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:19.399 to work on a John Dear or any of the 0:20:19.400 --> 0:20:22.800 big manufacturers stuff. It's all software driven and they can't 0:20:22.800 --> 0:20:26.240 fix their own stuff. And the right to repair has 0:20:26.400 --> 0:20:31.280