WEBVTT - Next Steps in Iran After Death of Khamenei

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<v Speaker 5>The degree to which this is widening, it's pretty extraordinary

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<v Speaker 5>here after the killing of Aroon Supreme leader. But we've

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<v Speaker 5>seen buildings struck in Tel Aviv, projectiles and Cutter and Bahrain,

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<v Speaker 5>and also protests in Paxton and I understand the desthold

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<v Speaker 5>they're rising as a result of those protests that have

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<v Speaker 5>taken place by Shared protesters.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we're hearing it's up to nine killed in Karachi.

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<v Speaker 2>We've also got some top lines acrossing the terminal. Iran

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<v Speaker 2>has appointed Ayatola Ali Raza Arafi to the Leadership Council.

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<v Speaker 2>He will not be the next Supreme leader. He's one

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<v Speaker 2>of three senior officials who I believe company had previously

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<v Speaker 2>designated as could take over for him during the past

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<v Speaker 2>summer when that bombing campaign was going on. These Raelings

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<v Speaker 2>were taking out top leaders and he knew this could

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<v Speaker 2>be an issue.

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<v Speaker 6>He named three people.

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<v Speaker 2>We will ask our experts later if indeed he was

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<v Speaker 2>one of them, and what we know about this individual and.

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<v Speaker 5>Certainly just highlights the level of uncertain we have as

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<v Speaker 5>we get to this issue of succession in Iran. Of course,

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<v Speaker 5>that the President of the United States urging Iranians to

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<v Speaker 5>put down their weapons and to reject the government that

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<v Speaker 5>have been in place there. That of course being made

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<v Speaker 5>from mar A Lago to Iran, a wide geographic distance there,

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<v Speaker 5>and this is a fight that's being waged by air.

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<v Speaker 5>We'll see what happens on the ground here in the

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<v Speaker 5>hours and days ahead.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, we want to bring in Jemani Verssecchi, Nancy

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<v Speaker 2>Yusef and Ethan Bronner. Jamana is our midiest anchor, and Jamon,

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<v Speaker 2>I want to start with you because I'm wondering what

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<v Speaker 2>we know about the new appointee and what exactly the

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<v Speaker 2>position being elevated to the leadership council. What does that mean,

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<v Speaker 2>is as temporary or do we know at this point?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, okay, So your question is, I guess about who

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<v Speaker 4>is going to succeed the Ayatola Chamree. And actually what

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<v Speaker 4>we're seeing now is procedure is kicking into place. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>you've got to think as well, they had been preparing

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<v Speaker 4>for this, for the possibility of him being eliminated or

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<v Speaker 4>even dying by natural death. He was eighty six years old.

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<v Speaker 4>And so what happens from here onwards is they've established

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<v Speaker 4>this temporary leadership council that is made up of the

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<v Speaker 4>president himself, President of Pazish Khan, who is alive according

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<v Speaker 4>to the Iranian officials, the head of the judiciary, and

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<v Speaker 4>then this senior cleric from the Guardian Council, the individual

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<v Speaker 4>that you just mentioned.

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<v Speaker 6>And their goal is just.

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<v Speaker 4>To steer the leadership through the coming months because at

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<v Speaker 4>the same time, what's going to happen is, according to

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<v Speaker 4>the constitution, an assembly of experts. This is the eight

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<v Speaker 4>member of well, it's a clerical body essentially comprised of

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<v Speaker 4>eighty eight members. They will be getting together and will

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<v Speaker 4>be assessing who should be the successor to Kmine. Many

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<v Speaker 4>different names are being thrown out there, unclear at this

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<v Speaker 4>point who it's going to be.

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<v Speaker 6>Some of the names include.

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<v Speaker 7>His son so Musham, some of his close aides Ali,

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<v Speaker 7>Larry Janni, Sadik Clari Johanni. And then there's also the

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<v Speaker 7>possibility of the grandson of the founder of the Islamic

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<v Speaker 7>Republic and his name is Rojala Kromene as well, but

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<v Speaker 7>at this point we don't really know. We know also

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<v Speaker 7>that the prior sort of quote unquote reformist president Rohanni,

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<v Speaker 7>who was the president who actually in the jcpoa deal

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<v Speaker 7>with Obama back then, he was one of the names

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<v Speaker 7>that was in the mix. But again unlikely at this

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<v Speaker 7>point that we're going to get any clarity. So in

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<v Speaker 7>the interim, this temporary Leadership Council is going to take

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<v Speaker 7>over Christina.

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<v Speaker 5>We heard such a chorus of complaint from Congress, but

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<v Speaker 5>the fact that they weren't briefed before these strikes were launched,

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<v Speaker 5>and there was a demand from the Iranians to have

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<v Speaker 5>a meeting of the UN Security Council yesterday here in

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<v Speaker 5>New York. In fact, that meeting did happen, and we

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<v Speaker 5>heard from the US representative to the UN Mike Waltz.

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<v Speaker 5>Let's take a listen to what he had to say

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<v Speaker 5>about the diplomatic track that the US was purportedly pursuing

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<v Speaker 5>here before these strikes took place.

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<v Speaker 8>American diplomacy was attempted repeatedly and in good faith. President Trump,

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<v Speaker 8>Secretary Rubio, our special envoys wit Coffin Kushner were relentlessly

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<v Speaker 8>dedicated to diplomacy. But diplomacy cannot succeed where there is

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<v Speaker 8>no genuine willingness to see s aggression, where there is

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<v Speaker 8>no genuine partner for peace.

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<v Speaker 5>Again, the US Ambassador to the United Nations, I want

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<v Speaker 5>to turn to Nancy Usef, staff writer at Atlantic Magazine

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<v Speaker 5>on this point. Nancy, as you look at that balance

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<v Speaker 5>and the debate over how much that balance was really

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<v Speaker 5>held even in the run up to all of this,

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<v Speaker 5>what are we learning about the integrity of those conversations

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<v Speaker 5>between the US and the Iranians being mediated by the

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<v Speaker 5>Omani and the degree to which perhaps they were proceeding

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<v Speaker 5>a way that could have forestalled what we saw happened

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<v Speaker 5>here over the last twenty four to thirty six hours.

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<v Speaker 9>Well, it depends on who you ask. If you talk

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<v Speaker 9>to the Omani, Foreign minister who gave an interview to

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<v Speaker 9>face the nation hours before these strikes began. He suggested

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<v Speaker 9>that there was real progress that had happened in those talks,

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<v Speaker 9>and the Iranians believed that there was progress, according to him,

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<v Speaker 9>but the United States felt that the Iranians were not

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<v Speaker 9>serious about talks, and we're interested really in buying time

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<v Speaker 9>to avert the very strikes that we saw yesterday, and

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<v Speaker 9>so these kinds of talks are really complicated, they're technical,

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<v Speaker 9>and so I think the question becomes the degree to

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<v Speaker 9>which there was a detailed discussion of these talks and

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<v Speaker 9>what the expectations were in terms of the outcome. Did

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<v Speaker 9>this have to have something that went beyond the twenty

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<v Speaker 9>fifteen agreement. Did it have to include limitations on Iran's

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<v Speaker 9>ballistic missile capability, as the United States had asked for

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<v Speaker 9>and the Iranians rejected. Did it have to deal with

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<v Speaker 9>Iran's proxies, which again the United States asked to be

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<v Speaker 9>part of the discussion, and the Iranians said they didn't

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<v Speaker 9>want it to be a part of the conversations. They

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<v Speaker 9>wanted it to focus strictly on their nuclear program.

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<v Speaker 2>And Ethan Brunner Bloomberg's Israel bureau chief.

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<v Speaker 6>I want to ask you out today.

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<v Speaker 2>Other than that eight minute statement that the President dropped

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<v Speaker 2>on social media in the middle of the night, the

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<v Speaker 2>White House did not have any other comments, and so

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<v Speaker 2>far we're being told they're not putting anybody else out

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<v Speaker 2>for the near future. But the President did speak to

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<v Speaker 2>Barack revide over at Axios. One of the things he

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<v Speaker 2>said is I can go long and take over the

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<v Speaker 2>whole thing, or end it in two or three days

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<v Speaker 2>and tell the Iranians see you again in a few

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<v Speaker 2>years if you start rebuilding and the inferences eras your

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear missile program.

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<v Speaker 6>I'm wondering what.

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<v Speaker 2>The appetite for another prolonged conflict is in Israel, given

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<v Speaker 2>the events of last year, the events following October.

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<v Speaker 6>Sixth, the war with Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think the Israelis want a protracted campaign or

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<v Speaker 2>do you think they would like to finish this.

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<v Speaker 6>Faster than that.

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<v Speaker 10>Look, I think nobody has an appetize for an expanded

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<v Speaker 10>campaign if you can avoid it. So I think it

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<v Speaker 10>would be fair to say that if they could, you know,

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<v Speaker 10>sort of eliminate this regime and the new people coming

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<v Speaker 10>into power would do what the US and Israel wants.

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<v Speaker 4>It to do.

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<v Speaker 6>People here would be thrilled.

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<v Speaker 10>That said, I think there's a gap between the US's

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<v Speaker 10>view of Iran and Israel. For Israel, Israel is considered

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<v Speaker 10>a somewhat existential battle the United States. It's I think

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<v Speaker 10>fair to say a war of choice that occurred. So

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<v Speaker 10>how long President Trump and his administration will want to

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<v Speaker 10>keep going, I think will likely to be shorter than

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<v Speaker 10>what Israel is willing to do. Of course, the Israelis

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<v Speaker 10>are suffering in a way that Americans are not. I mean,

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<v Speaker 10>everyone who lives here, including me, has almost every hour

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<v Speaker 10>been forced to go into a bomb shelter of some

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<v Speaker 10>kind a sleep and bombshelters. You see, you're absolutely right. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 10>it's got a metal door, it's got a metal shutter

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<v Speaker 10>for the window, and the room is also built with

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<v Speaker 10>something between eighteen and thirty inches of reinforced concrete and

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<v Speaker 10>has a kind of an aeration system.

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<v Speaker 6>So yes, it's.

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<v Speaker 10>Designed for this. But I mean many, many people in

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<v Speaker 10>Israel don't have one of their own apartment and they're

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<v Speaker 10>forced into public shelters. So it's not fun at all.

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<v Speaker 10>But I think on the other hand, you know, the

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<v Speaker 10>people in Israel have been talking for so long about

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<v Speaker 10>the need to eliminate the Iranian regime because Iran does

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<v Speaker 10>say death to Israel, it does fund and armed militias

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<v Speaker 10>around the region. It really is an enemy in a

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<v Speaker 10>genuine sense that people I think have a tolerance which

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<v Speaker 10>is going to go on for a while. We'll see

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<v Speaker 10>for how long. It's been a very rough day. By

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<v Speaker 10>the way, a lot a lot of attacks here.

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<v Speaker 6>A lot of attacks. There are a lot of attacks

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<v Speaker 6>across the region.

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<v Speaker 5>And I want to go to Jumana on that point,

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<v Speaker 5>because we've seen an attack on the Dubai Airport. I

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<v Speaker 5>believe either this is of course a major area of

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<v Speaker 5>transit for live international.

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<v Speaker 6>Place that usually takes fire in these incidents.

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<v Speaker 5>Absolutely so, Jaman, I wonder if you speak to the

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<v Speaker 5>way that this is widened and the degret to which

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<v Speaker 5>books were alert on alert rather well beyond Israel and Iran.

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<v Speaker 4>I think it's difficult to overstate how unprecedented this is

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<v Speaker 4>and how shocking it is for specifically the UAE.

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<v Speaker 6>You know, this is this is the part.

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<v Speaker 4>Of the region that has prided itself on its stability,

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<v Speaker 4>on political stability, on economic stability.

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<v Speaker 6>Uh, this is not a jurisdiction.

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<v Speaker 4>In in in the region where you'd expect something like

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<v Speaker 4>this to happen. So it's shaken everyone who lives here.

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<v Speaker 4>And yesterday and throughout our reporting, we were talking about,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, many people rushing to supermarkets to load up

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<v Speaker 4>on food. That is not a situation that I think

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<v Speaker 4>UAE officials ever anticipated would occur within the uae UH.

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<v Speaker 6>And And while.

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<v Speaker 4>It started off, the retaliation initially started off with Iran

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<v Speaker 4>sending missiles and drones across and directed at US assets

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<v Speaker 4>and U spaces in the region. Actually what happens yesterday

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<v Speaker 4>is civilian infrastructure started to get damaged as well. And

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<v Speaker 4>albeit it could be from the degree of intercepted missiles

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<v Speaker 4>and rockets, but at the same time, it's sustained damage.

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<v Speaker 4>We are seeing you heard about that fire probably in

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<v Speaker 4>one of those high end hotels and a very fancy

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<v Speaker 4>part of town called Pajumeira. You would have seen the

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<v Speaker 4>images online of a Dubai airport also sustaining damage. And

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<v Speaker 4>it's not just Dubai Airport. Abu Dhabi Airports also was

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<v Speaker 4>recipient of some damage. Similar themes emerging in Baharan as well.

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<v Speaker 4>And so what's happened here is this has become a

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<v Speaker 4>lot more dangerous for the countries in the region than

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<v Speaker 4>what we thought was going to happen in the early hours.

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<v Speaker 4>And just a short while ago, very very strong remarks

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<v Speaker 4>have come through from one of this senior president's advisors,

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<v Speaker 4>doctor Anad Gargash. It's an advisor to President MBZ, and

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<v Speaker 4>he actually put out a statement to the Iranians saying,

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<v Speaker 4>get your senses together. This is not how you're supposed

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<v Speaker 4>to be treating your neighbors. And I think you know

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<v Speaker 4>implicit to that is the threat that you know. So far,

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<v Speaker 4>the UAE have said that they're not going to let

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<v Speaker 4>the US use their basis to launch at tax On

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<v Speaker 4>in Iran, but there's the question mark of whether that

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<v Speaker 4>may change and whether the calculus for these DCC countries

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<v Speaker 4>has changed.

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<v Speaker 5>Jamana, thank you very much to remember set you there,

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<v Speaker 5>anchor of Horizon's Middle East and Africa here at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 5>Television and Radio are thanks to Nancy Yuseffith Atlantic Magazine

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<v Speaker 5>and Ethan Bonner, our Israel Bureau chief as well.

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<v Speaker 6>Thank you all. It's very interesting the places that.

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<v Speaker 2>Do not normally take direct hits in the attacks I

0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:36.840
<v Speaker 2>was a texting with a friend in Doha today checking

0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:38.560
<v Speaker 2>on them and seeing how they are, and he said,

0:11:38.600 --> 0:11:41.080
<v Speaker 2>we're good. We're just loud bangs and we're lying to

0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:44.800
<v Speaker 2>kids about quote, daytime fireworks. On that note, we want

0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:47.160
<v Speaker 2>to bring in Colonel Wayne Standers. He's a senior defense

0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:49.240
<v Speaker 2>research analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence.

0:11:49.640 --> 0:11:51.360
<v Speaker 6>Colonel, thank you so much for joining us.

0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:52.679
<v Speaker 2>I think one of the things I want to ask

0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:55.480
<v Speaker 2>you about is the level of coordination, especially on the

0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:59.720
<v Speaker 2>intelligence side, between US intelligence, the CIA, and Israeli intelligence.

0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:00.760
<v Speaker 6>Most there's a report in.

0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:02.959
<v Speaker 2>The New York Times this morning that the CIA was

0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:07.200
<v Speaker 2>actually the agency that located community and was able to

0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:10.600
<v Speaker 2>make that targeting and collaboration with USAD. I'm wondering what

0:12:10.640 --> 0:12:12.760
<v Speaker 2>your take is on that, if that was a generous

0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:16.480
<v Speaker 2>leak to chuff up our folks and Langley, or if

0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:18.560
<v Speaker 2>you think that's actually how that probably went down given

0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:20.880
<v Speaker 2>the intelligence capability of both those agencies.

0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:24.520
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, I think there's a lot more partnership that goes on.

0:12:24.559 --> 0:12:26.719
<v Speaker 11>Then a lot of people realize that are behind the

0:12:26.760 --> 0:12:30.400
<v Speaker 11>scenes that normally don't make it into the public life.

0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:32.920
<v Speaker 11>But from this perspective, there's a lot of partnerships across

0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:35.720
<v Speaker 11>those agencies, and anybody who's able to tip a queue

0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:38.000
<v Speaker 11>among allies and say hey, look this is the information

0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:40.560
<v Speaker 11>that I have. I have this piece of information. Because

0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:42.719
<v Speaker 11>normally what you're looking for is some type of corrobative,

0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:45.360
<v Speaker 11>corroborated reporting. You don't want to go off of a

0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:47.880
<v Speaker 11>single source that says, hey, this is where they're at,

0:12:47.920 --> 0:12:50.120
<v Speaker 11>and then you end up responding and end up being wrong.

0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:52.760
<v Speaker 11>So if you can take some signals intelligence, you can

0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:55.240
<v Speaker 11>take some imagery, you can take some human intelligence a

0:12:55.320 --> 0:12:57.800
<v Speaker 11>source maybe, and be able to put those pieces together,

0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:01.680
<v Speaker 11>then you have that additional level of confidence before you

0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:02.640
<v Speaker 11>try and target a strike.

0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:05.360
<v Speaker 5>Colonel, let me just ask you about how you're thinking

0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:07.640
<v Speaker 5>about the length of this conflict. And of course there

0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:09.280
<v Speaker 5>were the warnings and the run up to these strikes

0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:12.360
<v Speaker 5>by the US and Israel that this could metastasize into

0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:14.840
<v Speaker 5>a wider conflict. And then when you think about the

0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:17.880
<v Speaker 5>time horizon for that, what's your latest best thinking on

0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:19.480
<v Speaker 5>how long this is likely to last?

0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:23.320
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, I would like to think it wouldn't go beyond

0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:25.719
<v Speaker 11>seven days. Mainly, a lot of the piece that you're

0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:29.199
<v Speaker 11>seeing the administration talk about is is a week right,

0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:31.280
<v Speaker 11>they're kind of using that as one of the pieces

0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:33.439
<v Speaker 11>that are out there. When you look at the capability

0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:35.480
<v Speaker 11>that our Inians have left, Right, a lot of the

0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:38.560
<v Speaker 11>areas that the US and Israel were attacking is obviously

0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:41.199
<v Speaker 11>the leadership during the first one. Then the rest of

0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:43.800
<v Speaker 11>the volleys are really going after air defense launchers and

0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:47.040
<v Speaker 11>missile stockpiles. Right, they're keeping it towards valid military targets.

0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:49.800
<v Speaker 11>The launchers, there's not a whole lot of launchers left.

0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:52.080
<v Speaker 11>They're probably maybe one hundred, one hundred and fifty is

0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:55.240
<v Speaker 11>what I'm hearing from reporting. So no matter how many

0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:57.079
<v Speaker 11>missiles you have, you have to be able to actually

0:13:57.120 --> 0:14:00.520
<v Speaker 11>launch them in specific volleys from these launchers they're able

0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:04.400
<v Speaker 11>to successfully target those. It continues to cripple the amount

0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:08.120
<v Speaker 11>of military capability and capacity that Iran can put behind.

0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:12.920
<v Speaker 11>Back in the Iran Israel conflict, you actually saw volleys

0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:15.080
<v Speaker 11>of two hundred three hundred at a time.

0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:15.679
<v Speaker 6>Well, you're not.

0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:17.720
<v Speaker 11>Able to do that if you have a limited number

0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:18.240
<v Speaker 11>of launchers.

0:14:18.360 --> 0:14:19.600
<v Speaker 3>Coronel Wayne Sanders, stay with us.

0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:20.760
<v Speaker 5>We're going to come back to here over the course

0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:22.280
<v Speaker 5>of the next few hours to gede your perspective on

0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:25.280
<v Speaker 5>this conflict. Is get new reports of strikes throughout the region,

0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:28.560
<v Speaker 5>and Christina suffice to say, this is, as Jimana was saying,

0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:30.800
<v Speaker 5>something that really has widen geographically here over the last

0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:31.360
<v Speaker 5>twenty four hours.

0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:34.280
<v Speaker 2>It really Hasn't's opened up a very interesting discussion, both

0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:39.560
<v Speaker 2>politically and militarily about what comes. BAXT thanks for joining

0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:42.560
<v Speaker 2>us on today's Bloomberg This Weekend podcast. Don't forget to

0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.400
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0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:46.800
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0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:49.880
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