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Speaker 2: I'm June Grosso filling in for Joe Matthew. The twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four presidential election is likely going to be a
Speaker 2: repeat of the twenty twenty contest between President Joe Biden
Speaker 2: and former President Donald Trump, but the stakes are much
Speaker 2: higher this time around, and Biden is going to try
Speaker 2: to deliver that message to voters. Joining me is Laura Davidson,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics editor. Laura so Biden's campaign manager, says, they're
Speaker 2: going to treat this election like it will determine the
Speaker 2: fate of American democracy. How are they going to do that?
Speaker 3: Yeah, the campaign has already started trying to figure out,
Speaker 3: you know what messages, you know, in this broader democracy
Speaker 3: message are resonating with voters. Unlike in most cycles where
Speaker 3: you know you have a you wouldn't necessarily know who
Speaker 3: the opponent is. You know, they would have to go
Speaker 3: with the primary, wouldn't asiar go through the spring. The
Speaker 3: Biden campaign has a pretty clear idea that it's going
Speaker 3: to be Trump unless something a major upset happens in
Speaker 3: the primaries. So they're already running a lot of ads
Speaker 3: trying to figure out what messages resonate with key groups.
Speaker 3: And Trump is also very much playing into this message
Speaker 3: if they're talking about you know, democracy and that Trump
Speaker 3: is a threat to it. Trump is also talking using
Speaker 3: this very authoritative language, talking about other authoritative leaders that
Speaker 3: he admires, talking you know, some comments he's made recently
Speaker 3: that have been very reminiscent of remarks from Hitler, things
Speaker 3: like that immigrants are poisoning the blood of this country.
Speaker 3: So this has really given the Biden campaign a lot
Speaker 3: to run on now and get it basically a head
Speaker 3: start of where you know, campaigns typically start being able
Speaker 3: to figure out this messaging.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and according to a Quinnipiac University poll that was
Speaker 2: released Wednesday, only fifty three percent of respondents are concerned
Speaker 2: about Trump's recent comments saying that he would be like
Speaker 2: a dictator on day one of his second term. Forty
Speaker 2: four percent of respond and said they aren't worried about
Speaker 2: that remark, and eighty four percent of Republicans say they
Speaker 2: aren't worried about that. So do you think that this
Speaker 2: Biden focus on the Trump threat is going to help
Speaker 2: to move the needle for him?
Speaker 3: It certainly could. The Biden campaign so far has been
Speaker 3: talking about Bidenomics on all of the president's economic achievements.
Speaker 3: We even saw him go to Wisconsin this week to
Speaker 3: give a speech at the Black Chamber of Commerce there
Speaker 3: in Milwaukee to talk about his economic proposals and policies
Speaker 3: that so far in the polling hasn't really resonated with voters.
Speaker 3: You know, you look at head to head matchups, including
Speaker 3: a Bloomberg poll shows that that voters in swing states,
Speaker 3: of which Wisconsin is one of, Trump is leading Biden
Speaker 3: on some of these issues. So this is you know,
Speaker 3: kind of a not necessarily a shift, because the campaign
Speaker 3: was already going to talk about democracy, but you see
Speaker 3: them leaning more heavily into talking about democracy, talking about
Speaker 3: you know, Trump's comments about being a dictator, because they
Speaker 3: think that that's the messaging that will resonate more with
Speaker 3: voters versus some of these you know, more esoteric policies,
Speaker 3: more wonky things about you know, bills that have been
Speaker 3: passed over the past several years.
Speaker 2: You mentioned the economy. Voters also seem to be concerned
Speaker 2: with Biden's age. There's nothing that the campaign can do
Speaker 2: about that, but are they planning to frame it in
Speaker 2: any way?
Speaker 4: Yeah, So there's been a couple of things they've been doing.
Speaker 3: One is that they've just been trying to make sure
Speaker 3: that that Biden appears you know, as strong and as
Speaker 3: you know, vital as possible. The other thing is they've
Speaker 3: been making some jokes about the age. You know, Biden's
Speaker 3: been joking about that, you know, when he's been out
Speaker 3: on the campaign trail, you know, when he's been doing
Speaker 3: press conferences, just to make it, you know, less of
Speaker 3: a liability. The Camaine also points out that that that
Speaker 3: Trump is not that much younger than Biden.
Speaker 5: He's just three or four years younger.
Speaker 3: So this is, you know, going to be an issue.
Speaker 3: But when you look at where age resonates with voters,
Speaker 3: the age is much more of an issue for Biden
Speaker 3: than it is for Trump. And so that's going to
Speaker 3: be a key problem that the campaign is going to
Speaker 3: have to deal with growing forward.
Speaker 6: I know.
Speaker 2: And it's really surprising because, as you say, they are
Speaker 2: pretty close in age, and yet people are always complaining
Speaker 2: about Biden being too old. But you don't we usually
Speaker 2: hear people saying that about Trump. I don't know how
Speaker 2: they can turn that around. Really. So, now, despite this
Speaker 2: history that Trump has of racially divisive comments, surprisingly to me,
Speaker 2: he has some of the highest ratings among Black voters
Speaker 2: of any candidate from his party. And the Trump campaign
Speaker 2: is going to try to push that and kick off
Speaker 2: some television ads and outreach to the black community. Tell
Speaker 2: us about that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is a deliberate strategy among the Trump
Speaker 3: campaign to try to pick up some votes in the
Speaker 3: Black community. You know, they're not. This is the community
Speaker 3: that has traditionally voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. You know, somewhere
Speaker 3: ninety percent or even north of that have broken for
Speaker 3: for the Democratic presidential candidates. But the Trump campaign season
Speaker 3: opening there there. If you look at some of the
Speaker 3: polling right now, that shows what people are thinking. That's
Speaker 3: not necessarily people think in a year, but that Trump's
Speaker 3: favorability is rising among Black voters and Biden's favorability is declining.
Speaker 3: So they're seeing this, this opportunity here to maybe pick
Speaker 3: up some votes and if they are evile, just to
Speaker 3: get you know, three or four percentage points, you know,
Speaker 3: increase among Black voters. That could be the difference for
Speaker 3: you know, a Biden win versus a Trump win. So
Speaker 3: they're aiming to get twenty five percent of the Black vote.
Speaker 3: That would be you know, historically, you know, way higher
Speaker 3: than any Republican presidential candidate has gotten you know, roughly twice.
Speaker 3: You know, that's they've maxed at around twelve thirteen percent
Speaker 3: over the past fifty years. But this is certainly, you know,
Speaker 3: something that the Biden campaign is worried about and actively
Speaker 3: trying to combat.
Speaker 2: Is the Biden campaign or the Trump campaign particularly worried
Speaker 2: about third party candidates, of which there are several now
Speaker 2: and you have Kennedy in third place in that Quinnipiac poll.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is something that both campaigns are worried about
Speaker 3: because the risks there are sort of unknown and they
Speaker 3: could be very volatile. So, for example, you know, Robert F.
Speaker 3: Kennedy Junior, you know, had run as a Democrat, now
Speaker 3: is running as an independent. He's garnering you know, somewhere
Speaker 3: around you know, twenty two percent of the vote in
Speaker 3: that Quinnipiac poll. He's pulling pretty evenly from Trump and Biden,
Speaker 3: but you know, if that starts to change, that could
Speaker 3: be a risk. There's also Cornell West who's running as
Speaker 3: an independent or. And there also is the uh NO
Speaker 3: labels group that is potentially going to launch a presidential campaign.
Speaker 3: Joe Manson has made some noise, so that could have
Speaker 3: a big influence you in some of these states like Pennsylvania,
Speaker 3: where Joe Manson is is well known and popular. You know,
Speaker 3: Biden really needs to win that state to be able
Speaker 3: to win the presidency. So there's a lot of unknown
Speaker 3: variables here that could make this, you know, a surprising upset,
Speaker 3: you know, over the summer or the fall.
Speaker 2: We've all seen how the third party candidate can make
Speaker 2: a difference. Thanks so much, Laura for joining us. That's
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison.
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Speaker 2: Turning out is something millions of Americans are thinking of
Speaker 2: as they hit the road for the Christmas holidays, how
Speaker 2: much will it take to fill up their tanks. Joining
Speaker 2: us to answer that question is Patrick Dehan, head of
Speaker 2: petroleum analysis at gas Buddy. So, Patrick, what's the answer
Speaker 2: to the question?
Speaker 7: Well, fortunately, gas prices have declined for thirteen weeks in
Speaker 7: the run up to Christmas. Here the holidays looking rather good.
Speaker 7: We're seeing now twenty eight states where the average price
Speaker 7: of gaslane is below that three dollars gallon mark. And
Speaker 7: while we've seen a little bit of an uptick here
Speaker 7: in the last couple of days as oil prices jump
Speaker 7: last week, we're still seeing north of ninety five thousand
Speaker 7: stations across the United States below that three dollars gallon mark.
Speaker 7: Certainly some much lower prices in the last couple of
Speaker 7: weeks as we approach the holidays.
Speaker 2: I'll confess that I don't own a car since I
Speaker 2: live in New York City. But how does that line
Speaker 2: up with last year?
Speaker 7: Well, as a result of the little bit of a
Speaker 7: perk up and prices we've seen over the last couple
Speaker 7: of days, the national average is up about eight cents
Speaker 7: from last week's low. Gas prices now about three and
Speaker 7: a half cents above what we saw a year ago,
Speaker 7: and again we tried to make that run at a
Speaker 7: sub three dollars gallon national average. We got closer this year.
Speaker 7: Last week saw the national average declining to three to
Speaker 7: two a gallon. Last year we saw the bottom at
Speaker 7: three Tozho five. But both years it looks like we're
Speaker 7: stopping just short of seeing that national average below the
Speaker 7: three dollar mark.
Speaker 2: Given the Red Sea attacks and disrupting shipping, how have
Speaker 2: oil and gas prices managed to stay relatively contained well?
Speaker 7: And that's part of the reason why we have seen
Speaker 7: a bit of a bottom, at least potentially short term
Speaker 7: in the price of gasoline. Oil prices have rallied on
Speaker 7: some of the who the attacks that you mentioned in
Speaker 7: the Red Sea. Obviously, that's certainly a worry. A lot
Speaker 7: of merchant vessels use the Red Sea in the Suez Canal,
Speaker 7: and so we'll have to keep an eye on that.
Speaker 7: The other reason that gas prices of reality as well,
Speaker 7: optimism that the Federal Reserve could begin potentially cutting interest
Speaker 7: rates in twenty twenty four, sparking a rally in the
Speaker 7: stock market and oil on the hopes that it would
Speaker 7: lead to more economic growth, and that's why we're seeing
Speaker 7: a little bit of an uptick here in the last
Speaker 7: week when it comes to average gas prices.
Speaker 2: And as it costs tankers more to avoid the Red Sea,
Speaker 2: can you put a price on how much potentially that
Speaker 2: could add to the cost of a gallon of gas.
Speaker 7: Yeah, we're talking about a potential very small increase to
Speaker 7: price of gasoline. It really depends on how many ships
Speaker 7: end up having to divert away from the Red Sea.
Speaker 7: And you know, I would quantify it in the sense
Speaker 7: per gallon realm. I mean, we're talking about these large
Speaker 7: crude carriers that can carry one to two million barrels
Speaker 7: of oil per day, So it does water down the
Speaker 7: potential cost differential. But what's more important as well is
Speaker 7: not necessarily the cost difference, but the time and transit,
Speaker 7: taking ten to fourteen days longer to traverse around the
Speaker 7: Red Sea. And that's something to keep the eye on
Speaker 7: here to see how many more of these tankers are
Speaker 7: being diverted away from the Red Sea in the weeks ahead.
Speaker 2: So could this spark a supply chain crisis?
Speaker 7: I don't think, given the fact that we are in
Speaker 7: the winter when demand tends to be lower this is
Speaker 7: going to rise in gravity to be a significant event.
Speaker 7: But if this does continue into the spring months, when
Speaker 7: we do start to see seasonal demand rising, or if
Speaker 7: we suddenly get a spurt of extremely cold weather, the
Speaker 7: red Sea could become a more profound issue in terms
Speaker 7: of the impact on oil prices, But for now it's
Speaker 7: fairly mundane.
Speaker 2: Could all this the shipping delays driving up the price
Speaker 2: of goods? Could it potentially bring a new inflation risk
Speaker 2: to the global economy.
Speaker 7: I would say at this point that that risk is
Speaker 7: quite minimal. The good news is that while gasoline prices
Speaker 7: have gone up slightly, the price of diesel has come
Speaker 7: down substantially, and a lot of that being driven by
Speaker 7: warmer than normal temperatures for this time of year. So
Speaker 7: diesel is really the fuel that you'd have to carefully
Speaker 7: monitor for more of an effect on inflation, since much
Speaker 7: of the nation's final transit is using diesel, and the
Speaker 7: price of diesel actually has continued to sink in the
Speaker 7: last couple of weeks, in fact, falling below four dollars
Speaker 7: again nationally, so that would impact diesel more significantly, but
Speaker 7: the warmer weather is really offsetting the risk. Thus, far
Speaker 7: from what's happening in the Red Sea.
Speaker 2: In your at gas Buddy, do you find that consumers
Speaker 2: are worried as much about gas prices as say, a
Speaker 2: few years ago, and you know that it's something that
Speaker 2: factors into their travelsly.
Speaker 7: I think gas prices remain the sole economic barometer. Americans
Speaker 7: see those prices on the street corner. It really sets
Speaker 7: the tone for how they feel about the broader economy.
Speaker 7: And seeing gas prices that as we mentioned that tens
Speaker 7: of thousands of stations that have slipped below three dollars,
Speaker 7: it's no mistake that sentiment. Consumer sentiment is increasing on
Speaker 7: the fact that this one good that many Americans know
Speaker 7: the price of, whether they need it or not, has
Speaker 7: come down. And I think that plays into the psyche
Speaker 7: of consumers that are feeling a little bit more upbeat
Speaker 7: because they've seen energy prices crumbling.
Speaker 2: So as energy prices crumble, are we going to see
Speaker 2: airplane tickets come.
Speaker 7: Down to well? I certainly think that that's a dynamic
Speaker 7: that is also that is airline prices are also set
Speaker 7: more so on supply and demand of available seats, and
Speaker 7: I do think that there's a little bit of a
Speaker 7: loosening happening there as well, as a lot of Americans
Speaker 7: got out to travel internationally this summer, the State Department
Speaker 7: saying that passport delays are now negligible, They're back to normal,
Speaker 7: and I think that spells that there may be a
Speaker 7: brief lull in consumer demand to travel overseas, especially in
Speaker 7: the winter months. Airlines are now feeling more pressure to
Speaker 7: lower fares, not only because jet fuel, but because broadly speaking,
Speaker 7: more Americans have kind of got that travel bug out
Speaker 7: of their system, and we are seeing a seasonal uptick
Speaker 7: for the holidays. But beyond that, airlines may find capacity
Speaker 7: a little bit looser in the year ahead, especially as
Speaker 7: many of them add planes to their fleets.
Speaker 2: That would be good to see now is a two
Speaker 2: dollars ninety nine cent a gallon gas price likely to
Speaker 2: become the national average sometime on the horizon this year
Speaker 2: next year.
Speaker 7: Well, you know, I'm very hopeful that we will have
Speaker 7: a window of opportunity that could see a return potentially
Speaker 7: of sub three dollars prices, maybe in January February, but
Speaker 7: it's really going to be contingent on the pace of
Speaker 7: the economy. If the Fed cantinues to hint that interest
Speaker 7: rate cuts are going to be happening. I think there's
Speaker 7: going to be a broad recovery in the economy, potentially
Speaker 7: with reduced borrowing costs, and that would probably negate the
Speaker 7: possibility of a sub three dollars average. So if we're
Speaker 7: to see a sub three dollars average, a two ninety
Speaker 7: nine average, I think the window of opportunity would be
Speaker 7: January and February, and then that window basically closes for
Speaker 7: the spring and summer, and it may reopen next fall.
Speaker 2: And just about a minute left here, Patrick, do you
Speaker 2: see a lot of travel or a lot of Americans
Speaker 2: going to hit the road this holiday season?
Speaker 7: We certainly do, not only air travel because of how
Speaker 7: open up that has become, but certainly cars offer more
Speaker 7: flexibility than air travel does, and consumers being greeted in
Speaker 7: many many states, I mean we were at thirty one
Speaker 7: states with sub three dollars prices. I think many consumers
Speaker 7: are getting back into the mode of transit of using
Speaker 7: their cars simply it offers supreme flexibility, It avoids the
Speaker 7: headaches of the airport, especially at the holidays when airports
Speaker 7: tend to be very busy. So Americans Devlin are flocking
Speaker 7: back to the roads.
Speaker 2: Thanks so much. Patrick. That's Patrick d'han, head of petroleum
Speaker 2: analysis at gas Buddy.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: What's your choice for the top political stories of twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three? Of course, there's the former president being indicted
Speaker 2: four times on ninety one felony counts, but still leading
Speaker 2: his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination. There's the George
Speaker 2: Santos saga that was fodder for late night comedians all year.
Speaker 2: And remember the chaos as Republicans took control of the House,
Speaker 2: taking four days to elect Speaker Kevin McCarthy and then
Speaker 2: ousting him after only ten months. There is so much
Speaker 2: more as well. I've been talking with Genie Shane's Zo
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor and Lisa Camuso Miller, former R and
Speaker 2: C communications director and host of the Friday Reporter podcast.
Speaker 2: So Lisa, you go first. What is your favorite political
Speaker 2: story of twenty twenty three?
Speaker 8: Oh, June it has got to be the House of
Speaker 8: Representatives in the Republican Conference, no question. I mean, not
Speaker 8: only fifteen votes to get Kevin McCarthy in to be speaker,
Speaker 8: but then a full three weeks to get a new
Speaker 8: speaker after they asked it him. And that alone is
Speaker 8: the chaos that has just ensued on so many different
Speaker 8: levels and so different ways. It's held up funding for Ukraine,
Speaker 8: it's held up our support for Israel, It's held up
Speaker 8: so many different things, and I think it's just going
Speaker 8: to continue into twenty twenty four. So in my opinion,
Speaker 8: that has to be the biggest political story of the year.
Speaker 2: Ginny, do you agree or do you want to pick
Speaker 2: another one?
Speaker 9: Oh, there's so many, And of course I agree with Lisa.
Speaker 9: And by the way, June, I have to say, how
Speaker 9: lovely it is for the last show of the year
Speaker 9: to be on with you and Lisa, because all women power.
Speaker 2: I can feel it.
Speaker 9: That's right, you know, I agree with Lisa on that.
Speaker 9: But let me just add, you know another one. You know,
Speaker 9: I think you mentioned the indictments of Donald Trump. You know,
Speaker 9: as I think back to this year will go earlier
Speaker 9: than this the idea that the leading presidential candidate would
Speaker 9: be subject to over ninety counts against him, and yet
Speaker 9: with every single count, as we've talked about so much,
Speaker 9: he only grows in the polls, his fundraising only goes up.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 9: It is just quite an astounding thing. So that's to
Speaker 9: me an enormous story of the year. And of course,
Speaker 9: you know, you look overseas, have to say October seventh,
Speaker 9: and the horror of that event and what has followed.
Speaker 9: You know, many of us in the Biden administration in particular,
Speaker 9: thought that things were calming down a bit, moving forward,
Speaker 9: getting more positive. In the Middle East, absolutely upended. So
Speaker 9: there's an awful lot to choose from. But those are
Speaker 9: two that I would just add on the table.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, some of these just keep oncoming.
Speaker 2: And I'm thinking of the revelations about the lavish trips
Speaker 2: and other freebies that Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas got
Speaker 2: from Republican mega donors. And you know, now there are
Speaker 2: calls for him to recuse himself in any upcoming case
Speaker 2: involving former President Trump. Do you think that would happen, Lisa.
Speaker 8: I mean, you know, June in a previous five years before,
Speaker 8: maybe yes, The answer is yes, but now it's just
Speaker 8: so hard to know, right because so much of what
Speaker 8: we have known to be the facts and the tenets
Speaker 8: of the US federal government system have changed in so
Speaker 8: many different ways. And to me, it's just another it's
Speaker 8: just another layer onto ninety one counts ninety one the
Speaker 8: four indictments, and ninety one counts for the former press.
Speaker 8: But yet still he may get the nominee a nomination,
Speaker 8: and he's still very well is in contention to be
Speaker 8: the next president of the United States. So as much
Speaker 8: as I would say yes, this definitely is something that
Speaker 8: is a disqualifier and ought to be something that we
Speaker 8: look very closely at in their Supreme court system, I
Speaker 8: wish I could say yes, But the answer is I
Speaker 8: just don't know.
Speaker 2: And now I'm going to bring in our board op Sebastian,
Speaker 2: who has come up with a different story, and that
Speaker 2: is the return of American Unions. Genie. That has to
Speaker 2: be on the list.
Speaker 9: Sebastian so smart, so it should be.
Speaker 5: On the list.
Speaker 9: You know, we saw so many strikes this over the
Speaker 9: last year, everything from the actors and writers of course,
Speaker 9: to the UAW nurses and beyond, and you know, Sebastian.
Speaker 9: I want to also pick up on what he said,
Speaker 9: because Sean Faine, I mean, what an enormous and enormous
Speaker 9: powerhouse he turned out to be, and really I think
Speaker 9: changed the way many people think about the power of
Speaker 9: labor and really showed us a new way for labor
Speaker 9: to go forward. And of course, you know, working with
Speaker 9: or you know, we're all living under a president who
Speaker 9: describes himself as labor's you know, biggest friend, Joe Biden,
Speaker 9: and the idea that we'd have a president go on
Speaker 9: the go to and join the strike, we'd have leading
Speaker 9: presidential candidate and Donald Trump go out there, go to
Speaker 9: a non unionized shop. But labor certainly has made an
Speaker 9: enormous resurgence, and I do think as we think about
Speaker 9: going forward, we will continue to see because of in
Speaker 9: fact of the success the UAW had a lot of
Speaker 9: labor activity and efforts to try to unionize even further
Speaker 9: and across other industries.
Speaker 2: Just a few minutes here, Lisa, which branch of government
Speaker 2: we've looked at at some political stories from all which
Speaker 2: will make the most news in twenty.
Speaker 8: Wow, that's a big list and it's really hard to say, June,
Speaker 8: but the one thing I would say is that what
Speaker 8: the trend that we've been seeing in the US House
Speaker 8: of Representatives and really in the Congress is that they
Speaker 8: were hoping to get back to a regular order and
Speaker 8: get back to the traditional appropriations process, doing business the
Speaker 8: way we used to do it, which seems kind of
Speaker 8: silly now that we've talked about how things have all changed.
Speaker 8: And so going into the new year, it was the
Speaker 8: one thing that got Kevin McCarthy aust did as the speaker.
Speaker 8: It looks as if we're going to have a year
Speaker 8: long cr at the beginning of the year, rather than
Speaker 8: going back to what folks had hoped that they would
Speaker 8: be able to do. So that's the way things are
Speaker 8: going to spread out over twenty four is a little
Speaker 8: bit more of the same over and over again. And
Speaker 8: so I continue to look at the House and the
Speaker 8: Senate and say, that's going to set the tone because
Speaker 8: the election itself is a lot more of the same
Speaker 8: two candidates that nobody's very excited about. And so that alone,
Speaker 8: I think, is what's going to make things very contentious
Speaker 8: and very hostile over the course and the dialogue over
Speaker 8: the course of twenty four.
Speaker 2: Of course, I'm going to vote for the judiciary because
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court is going to be making a lot
Speaker 2: of decisions having to do having an impact on the
Speaker 2: presidential election coming up, as well as decisions on abortion
Speaker 2: and the Second Amendment and all kinds of agency attacks.
Speaker 2: So that's my vote, naturally, but you could have guessed that.
Speaker 2: Thank you both so much. That's Jenny Schenzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor,
Speaker 2: and Lisa Camusso Miller, former R and C communications director
Speaker 2: and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Thank you both.
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Speaker 10: Well, we got inflation data today that came in cool
Speaker 10: and it was very important to what we're talking about.
Speaker 10: Here is the PCEE deflator, and for those who aren't familiar,
Speaker 10: this is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. We actually saw
Speaker 10: disinflation on the monthly figure when it came to the
Speaker 10: headline down a tenth of a percent month on month,
Speaker 10: and ladies and gentlemen, no surprise, the White House decided
Speaker 10: it wanted to take a little bit of a victory
Speaker 10: lap on this, which is why I had the opportunity
Speaker 10: earlier today to speak with Lael Brainerd, who, of course
Speaker 10: as a former Federal Reserve official, but also now is
Speaker 10: the director of the National Economic Council. And while she
Speaker 10: did tout the progress that has been made in inflation,
Speaker 10: I asked her, why isn't President Biden getting credit for it?
Speaker 10: And what can he do to fix that? This was
Speaker 10: some of her answer.
Speaker 5: Americans may finally beginning to feel a little bit more confident,
Speaker 5: a little bit more secure. But the President is going
Speaker 5: to continue to push us to work to lower costs
Speaker 5: for American families and to keep these gains over the
Speaker 5: course of the next year and years.
Speaker 10: All right, So let's add another perspective to this conversation.
Speaker 10: I'm pleased to say joining me now is Congressman Brad Sherman,
Speaker 10: the Democrat from California who also sits on the Financial
Speaker 10: Services Committee. So, Congressman, that makes your perspective valuable here.
Speaker 10: If you were to just look at the data today,
Speaker 10: it would suggest that perhaps Bidenomics is working, yet it
Speaker 10: isn't resonating with voters. So if that's the case, doesn't
Speaker 10: really matter at.
Speaker 11: All, Well, certainly it matters for the economy. Winning elections
Speaker 11: is nice, but the country doing well is the reason
Speaker 11: we try to win elections. I think this will resonate.
Speaker 11: There's now in the polling a disconnect with how people
Speaker 11: feel they're doing economically personally and how they feel the
Speaker 11: country is doing. And I think that that discordance will
Speaker 11: narrow as we get to the election and people will say, hey,
Speaker 11: I'm doing all right, my cousin's got a job, and
Speaker 11: maybe the entire economy is doing well. Certainly, results like
Speaker 11: this with the with negative inflation, I'll be it a
Speaker 11: little bit and only on the top line. But to
Speaker 11: see this downward pressure on prices is very good.
Speaker 10: Well, in this downward pressure on prices have led many
Speaker 10: in financial markets and others to say, hey, the Fed
Speaker 10: is probably going to turn around and start cutting rates
Speaker 10: pretty soon. I know that often there is a dislike
Speaker 10: of weighing in on FED policy among elected representatives, but
Speaker 10: do you think that that would be a fair assumption
Speaker 10: that the FED is going to be in a position
Speaker 10: to cut rates in the not so distant future.
Speaker 11: I think the market things that I'm not reluctant to
Speaker 11: chime in on this, but the effect of this blockade
Speaker 11: by the Huthi of the Red Sea, Let's see what
Speaker 11: that does not only to the goods that typically go
Speaker 11: through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, but also
Speaker 11: the price of shipping, because if you're going to need
Speaker 11: hundreds and hundreds of ships going around the Cape of
Speaker 11: Good Hope, that's just ships that aren't available, and shipping
Speaker 11: is a supply and demand. So we've got to look
Speaker 11: at the geopolitical both the Middle East and Ukraine. But
Speaker 11: I'm hoping very much that we see a rate cut
Speaker 11: in March or April.
Speaker 10: So you raised some of these jiga political concerns, like
Speaker 10: what we're seeing in the Red Sea that potentially is
Speaker 10: a risk not just in terms of energy flow and
Speaker 10: energy prices, but also supply chains. We all remember what
Speaker 10: happened during the pandemic, how those supply chains got snarled,
Speaker 10: and that's really a large part of what got us
Speaker 10: into this inflationary mess in the first place. What is
Speaker 10: your degree of concern at this point that we could
Speaker 10: find ourselves and, if not as dramatic, at least a
Speaker 10: similar position.
Speaker 11: Again, Oh, I don't think it'll be as dramatic as
Speaker 11: we saw two or three years ago. But you've got
Speaker 11: a lot of ships that are now going around the
Speaker 11: Cape of Good Hope, and so their journeys will take
Speaker 11: almost twice as long, and that means those ships aren't
Speaker 11: available to bid on the next bit of cargo, whether
Speaker 11: that cargo is going across the Pacific or or whatever
Speaker 11: route it might take. So I do think shipping costs
Speaker 11: will go up. The hope is that this is just
Speaker 11: uplip and hopefully we can push the Iranians and their subsidiary,
Speaker 11: the Hoothies, out of this process of eating the Red Sea.
Speaker 10: Well, Congressman, how exactly in your mind should that pushing happen?
Speaker 10: Because we have seen the US assembling a task force,
Speaker 10: which the Pentagon says now includes twenty nations trying to
Speaker 10: deter and defend essentially merchant vessels in the Red Sea that,
Speaker 10: though is not an offensive move, would you be encouraging
Speaker 10: the US to directly strike the Hoothies at this point.
Speaker 11: We hope that we can deal with this just by
Speaker 11: playing defense, just by shooting down the drones and showing
Speaker 11: commercial shippers and insurers that this is safe. If that
Speaker 11: doesn't happen, we can either take violent action against the Houthis,
Speaker 11: or we can expose the Iranians to what they're exposing
Speaker 11: the world to. We could interrupt their shipping in any
Speaker 11: ocean of the world. So, whether it is a threat
Speaker 11: and attention of this or that ship bound for Ran,
Speaker 11: or whether it is kinetic action against the Houthie, if
Speaker 11: that's necessary, I think we do it. As of now,
Speaker 11: we may be able to create safety just by shooting
Speaker 11: down drones and missiles that the Hoothy launched.
Speaker 7: Well.
Speaker 10: And of course, the consideration for the US here is
Speaker 10: the idea that they don't want to escalate this conflict
Speaker 10: any further, right, they don't want this to turn into
Speaker 10: a broader regional conflict beyond what is already happening between
Speaker 10: Israel and Hamas in Gaza. And that's where I'd like
Speaker 10: to go with you, next Congressman, if we could. The
Speaker 10: UN Security Council just passed a resolution today, the US
Speaker 10: abstaining from this vote that calls for the continued flow
Speaker 10: of aid and increased flow of aid into the Gaza strip.
Speaker 10: It stopped short of demanding a ceasefire, and part of
Speaker 10: that was because of the US's concerns about that language,
Speaker 10: because that is not something the administration is pushing at
Speaker 10: this point. But there are growing calls for that. Sir As.
Speaker 10: We see the death toll in Gaza rising substantially. Knowing
Speaker 10: especially that you are the co chair of the Israel
Speaker 10: Allies Conference or caucus in the House, what do you
Speaker 10: say for calls for Israel to stop the bombing.
Speaker 11: The scenes we see in Gaza are horrendous. We want
Speaker 11: the killing to end. Israel has offered a week long
Speaker 11: cease fire if the terrorists will release forty hostages. That
Speaker 11: has been rejected by Hamas. We could have a permanent
Speaker 11: cease fire if they Hamas were to release all the
Speaker 11: hostages and either disarm themselves and turn themselves in, or
Speaker 11: I think we could arrange a departure for the Hamas
Speaker 11: fighters or at least their top leadership, to Iran or
Speaker 11: a similar country. But as long as a mass insists
Speaker 11: upon a bargaining for a ceasefire, that is simply a
Speaker 11: chance for them to regroup and repeat their rampages of
Speaker 11: October seventh. Obviously nobody, no same person is going to
Speaker 11: accept that. But we could have a week long ceasefire.
Speaker 11: Israel has offered that, not for even all the hostages,
Speaker 11: but just for forty. Hamas knows that as long as
Speaker 11: the people of gas that die, a mass becomes more
Speaker 11: popular than worth, and they keep doing it.
Speaker 10: Well to these ideas of negotiations around another potential agreement
Speaker 10: to release the hostages. Obviously, there was a temporary ceasefire
Speaker 10: earlier in the conflict that ended several weeks ago. There
Speaker 10: was a lot of conversation at that time for when
Speaker 10: that stopped, this idea that it would be much harder
Speaker 10: to reach a deal the second time around. How confident
Speaker 10: are you that another deal can be reached between Hamas
Speaker 10: and Israel and those parties that are helping negotiate this.
Speaker 11: Amas realized that they had a public relations problem if
Speaker 11: they held children, women, and foreigners, chiefly agricultural workers from
Speaker 11: the Philippines and Thailand, and they have released those in
Speaker 11: return for many concessions. Obviously, the idea of kidnapping hostages
Speaker 11: and getting concessions shouldn't please anybody, but they got the
Speaker 11: concessions and they released. When it comes to male hostages,
Speaker 11: even the elderly you just saw, they recently released a
Speaker 11: video of three men over the age of seventy. They
Speaker 11: are trying to extract to enormous prices for those hostages,
Speaker 11: and I don't think they'll be successful. But we can
Speaker 11: have a week long cease fire, which is a giant
Speaker 11: resupply opportunity to the people of Gaza if only release
Speaker 11: forty hostages, presumably they would be releasing elderly man.
Speaker 10: Well, Congressman. Of course, when you return to Washington after
Speaker 10: this holiday break, the issue of funding for Israel, as
Speaker 10: well as funding for Ukraine and border security is one
Speaker 10: that is probably going to be front and center in
Speaker 10: addition to trying to fund the government and avoid a
Speaker 10: partial shutdown on January nineteenth. When it comes to that fundament,
Speaker 10: that supplemental funding package, what border measures do you, as
Speaker 10: a Democrat in the House of Representative think are appropriate
Speaker 10: for the White House to compromise on here, Well.
Speaker 11: I'm not going to negotiate on radio. I think the
Speaker 11: Biden opening position of having an orderly border with our
Speaker 11: border control properly funded our that's our position now. If
Speaker 11: we're going to actually change any of our policies that
Speaker 11: needs to be negotiated behind closed doors. But the idea
Speaker 11: that Republicans would fail to fund aid for Israel and
Speaker 11: aid to Ukraine in order to extract a concession of
Speaker 11: what is pretty much a domestic issue, that's not the
Speaker 11: Republican party I saw twenty years ago.
Speaker 10: Okay, So how does all of this come together?
Speaker 6: Then?
Speaker 10: What is your degree of confidence that a supplemental is
Speaker 10: going to be able to be passed at all when
Speaker 10: even there's questions around them must pass must pass appropriation bills.
Speaker 11: I have fifty to fifty confidence in our ability to
Speaker 11: fund the Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and border. One could imagine
Speaker 11: that if that guy was Steiny, that Israel would move
Speaker 11: forward separately, don't know, and that certainly isn't the administration's position.
Speaker 11: Then we face possible shutdown of the US government, some
Speaker 11: of it on the nineteenth of January, some on February second,
Speaker 11: and the Republican bargaining position hasn't even been articulated, let alone,
Speaker 11: you know, and their reluctance to have another CR or
Speaker 11: a continuing resolution means we could very well face shutdowns
Speaker 11: to the US government at the beginning of the next year.
Speaker 11: This is the Republicans are so unreasonable they won't even
Speaker 11: articulate openly what their position is.
Speaker 10: Well, twenty twenty four, Congressman is going to be a
Speaker 10: doozy for a multitude of reasons. But on this subject
Speaker 10: of twenty twenty four, of course, a lot of news
Speaker 10: was made this week when the Colorado State Supreme Court
Speaker 10: ruled that former President Trump should be off the ballot
Speaker 10: in that state, that he is ineligible to be president
Speaker 10: on the grounds of the fourteenth Amendment. And I actually
Speaker 10: spoke with your colleague, a Democrat from California just like you,
Speaker 10: John Gary Mendi, about this earlier, and his take was interesting.
Speaker 10: I'd like to get your response to it. This is
Speaker 10: what he had to say.
Speaker 6: I believe that Trump should be given the chance to
Speaker 6: be on the ballot, and I suspect the Supreme Court
Speaker 6: will so rule. Were that not to happen, I believe
Speaker 6: we'd have a very serious, very very serious political crisis
Speaker 6: in the United States if, in fact, Trump were not
Speaker 6: allowed to be on the presidential on the ballots in November.
Speaker 10: Congressman Sherman, do you agree with that view?
Speaker 11: I think we'd face major difficulty if he wasn't allowed
Speaker 11: to be on the ballot, although many many of my
Speaker 11: Republican friends would hope that the Republicans would nominate a
Speaker 11: different candidate, Nikki Haley or whomever. Section three of the
Speaker 11: fourteenth Amendment is a inadequately defined and highly dangerous provision.
Speaker 11: It not only deals with those who engage in insurrection,
Speaker 11: but also allows the exclusion of people who have given
Speaker 11: aid or comfort to our enemies, and that is not
Speaker 11: well defined. I protested against the Vietnam War long ago.
Speaker 11: I've got colleagues who have voted against daide to Israel,
Speaker 11: and presumably someone could argue that either of those acts
Speaker 11: is making the enemies of the United States feel aided.
Speaker 11: So we need at some point to have statutes that
Speaker 11: carefully define this section. Up until now obscure section of
Speaker 11: the fourteenth Amendment as to whether Trump engaged in insurrection
Speaker 11: or only aided insurrection, whether the presidency is covering and
Speaker 11: by six we're going to have to see the court
Speaker 11: set rule.
Speaker 6: All right.
Speaker 10: Congressman Bradshrman, the Democrat from California. Great to have you
Speaker 10: weigh in and join us today. Thank you so much.
Speaker 10: In a Happy New Year to you.
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 10: Just today, after several days of delay, the United Nations
Speaker 10: Security Council was finally able to pass a resolution calling
Speaker 10: for increased aid into the Gaza Strip. This, of course,
Speaker 10: is the conflict between Israel and hamas continues. What this
Speaker 10: resolution did not do, however, is demand a cease fire
Speaker 10: between them, instead calling on parties to quote create the
Speaker 10: conditions for a sustained cessation of hostilities. This was a
Speaker 10: result of negotiations that had to take place over language
Speaker 10: to avoid a US veto. The US ended up abstaining
Speaker 10: from this vote. And while that work is being done,
Speaker 10: the US also has its size on the Red Sea.
Speaker 10: As we've been reporting over the last several days, they've
Speaker 10: assembled a maritime task force. The Pentagon now says more
Speaker 10: than twenty nations are taking part as they try to
Speaker 10: make sure it is safe enough for commercial and merchant
Speaker 10: vessels to pass because of threat or actual hoothy attacks.
Speaker 10: This is where we want to begin with Ellen Wald.
Speaker 10: She is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and
Speaker 10: also author of Saudi Inked. Ellen, thank you so much
Speaker 10: for joining. It's always great to see you and get
Speaker 10: your perspective. I want to first start with New York
Speaker 10: Times reporting today that Iran has been helping the Houthi
Speaker 10: militia in Yemen plan and carry out these attacks against
Speaker 10: commercial shipping vessels. This is according to newly declassified American
Speaker 10: intelligence that the Times is citing. Should this be a surprise.
Speaker 4: You know, I don't think it is a surprise. It
Speaker 4: shouldn't become as a surprise.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 4: It's pretty impressive the gains the Houthis have made, you know,
Speaker 4: over the past several years, but the kinds of things
Speaker 4: that they are doing need more advanced, uh, you know, weapons,
Speaker 4: guidance systems than it was really believed that they that
Speaker 4: they had. So I think what's interesting though, is that,
Speaker 4: you know, the United States is saying it's not just
Speaker 4: the weapons that that they're giving them, but that they
Speaker 4: that they are basically doing the planning and executing the
Speaker 4: real time you know, guidance systems. And in response, of
Speaker 4: course that Ron says, uh, you know, we have no
Speaker 4: control over the actions of the Houthis and and whatnot.
Speaker 4: And so it's kind of a case of like, you know,
Speaker 4: are they or are they not? And I think the
Speaker 4: the issue is really how much does the US want
Speaker 4: to press this because the more evidence that is a
Speaker 4: symbol that shows the direct involvement of Iran and these things,
Speaker 4: it pushes the US and potentially some other members of
Speaker 4: this coalition towards a more direct confrontation with Iran and
Speaker 4: all of the incredible risks and increases in insecurity risks
Speaker 4: that come with it, as opposed to if the US
Speaker 4: is well, you know, Iran is denying this, so we're
Speaker 4: just going to deal with the issue and not the
Speaker 4: Iran issue. Of course, in that case you risk this
Speaker 4: conflict and these issues just stretching on.
Speaker 10: Well, Ellen, hold that thought. Just bear with me a second,
Speaker 10: as we do have some breaking news just to bring
Speaker 10: our listeners and audience aware of coming from the Supreme Court.
Speaker 10: The Court refusing to put the Trump immunity clash on
Speaker 10: the fast track. The background to here of course, is
Speaker 10: this is related to the jack Smith Special Council case
Speaker 10: brought here in Washington, related to twenty twenty election interference.
Speaker 10: Jacksmith had asked for Sir Court to expedite a decision
Speaker 10: around immunity for former President Trump. Trump and his legal
Speaker 10: team had asked the Court not to accelerate this, saying
Speaker 10: that Jacksmith's argument was essentially not valid, and it does
Speaker 10: seem this is how the Court has ruled, refusing to
Speaker 10: put that immunity clash on the fast track in this
Speaker 10: January sixth case, so they will not consider it immediately.
Speaker 10: And of course this effort on the part of Jacksmith
Speaker 10: was in part to make sure the trial could indeed
Speaker 10: start when he wants it to, which is an early
Speaker 10: March of next year, so less than three months away. Again,
Speaker 10: the Supreme Court not fast tracking this Trump immunity clash,
Speaker 10: And we will return to that in just a few minutes.
Speaker 10: But Ellen to come back to you on what's happening
Speaker 10: not here domestically in Washington, but what's happening in terms
Speaker 10: of geopolitics. This idea that you were just mentioning on
Speaker 10: the broadening of the conflict when we think about the notion,
Speaker 10: as we've been reporting over the last week or so,
Speaker 10: that the US is considering potentially going on offense here
Speaker 10: trying to strike the Huthies directly. A. Would that be
Speaker 10: an escalation, There's just no other way to phrase it.
Speaker 10: And and B would actually that also potentially be damaging
Speaker 10: to alliances in the Middle East, specifically with Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 4: So yeah, it's it's a very complicated situation because you know,
Speaker 4: in some perspects, you do have there is already an
Speaker 4: American naval vessel in that area that has been basically
Speaker 4: defending these ships against attacks. The issue is that they
Speaker 4: haven't actually struck back, you know, to say any who's
Speaker 4: the you know, infrastructure on land where these attacks are
Speaker 4: coming from. They're just kind of trying to thwart them
Speaker 4: in the water. But that there are all of these
Speaker 4: other issues because for a long time, Saudi Arabia and
Speaker 4: the UEI were essentially involved in a war against the Huthis,
Speaker 4: and they finally kind of reached this period like carefully
Speaker 4: cultivated quasi deton in that in that war, I mean,
Speaker 4: because several years ago the Huthis were shooting you know,
Speaker 4: rockets at Riod and at major airports in Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 4: So this I think is something that the Saudis really
Speaker 4: don't want to we start. And so whatever the US
Speaker 4: is going to do, they're gonna have to tread very
Speaker 4: carefully because both they don't want to mess this up.
Speaker 4: But at the same time, getting Saudi and UAE buy
Speaker 4: in and consent is very critical because you know, the
Speaker 4: Saudis have you know, part of their border is is
Speaker 4: a very large part of the Red Sea. But then
Speaker 4: on the other hand, you've got this threat to international shipping.
Speaker 4: And this is an incredibly uh old, you know concept
Speaker 4: that that we have. You know, that that shipping and
Speaker 4: international trade should be allowed to you know, to to
Speaker 4: to go unobstructed when you're in neutral waters. And so
Speaker 4: this is a concept and and a very old covenant
Speaker 4: of of you know, international law and practice, even before
Speaker 4: there was a United Nations and there was something that
Speaker 4: we call international law. And if the United States and
Speaker 4: allies and this culture do nothing, then you risk, you know,
Speaker 4: abandoning this incredibly old precept that is so crucial to
Speaker 4: global trade. And I think that that could set a
Speaker 4: very very difficult.
Speaker 10: Precedent well an energy trade specifically, I mean we're talking
Speaker 10: about the ability of petroleum products to flow in and
Speaker 10: out of the Middle East, Llen. So with that in mind,
Speaker 10: do you think the energy market right now is properly
Speaker 10: reflecting that risk? If you take a look at oil prices,
Speaker 10: which sure are a little higher, but not incredibly elevated,
Speaker 10: I think that they.
Speaker 4: Are They're reflecting the risk at this moment, But I
Speaker 4: don't think that perhaps energy that energy prices in the
Speaker 4: future are are perhaps reflecting the fact that this could
Speaker 4: cause an escalation to a greater conflict. Right when the
Speaker 4: Gaza Israel issue got going, you know, back in October,
Speaker 4: we saw elevated oil prices because everyone was concerned that
Speaker 4: this was going to become this sort of whole, regional
Speaker 4: wide conflagration. But you know, then there was a period
Speaker 4: where it seemed clear that, you know, no one else
Speaker 4: was going to get involved in this, this was going
Speaker 4: to be a Hamas Israel thing.
Speaker 5: Well, well now we're.
Speaker 4: Actually looking at this coming up again. So while that
Speaker 4: it seems like prices had kind of scaled back because
Speaker 4: they said, Okay, this is no longer a risk. Now
Speaker 4: we're looking at the fact that this could very well
Speaker 4: be a risk, and because this is something that is
Speaker 4: impacting trade and international shipping. That could be the thing
Speaker 4: that actually forces the United States to really get involved
Speaker 4: and causes it to something larger. So I wouldn't be surprised. Well,
Speaker 4: hopefully traders and whatnot are watching this situation very carefully
Speaker 4: because this is a different This is a different issue.
Speaker 4: I think it's it's a whole different level than say
Speaker 4: an Israel Hamas conflict. This is something that has the
Speaker 4: potential to really become something much larger.
Speaker 10: And finally, Ellen, we only have less than a minute left.
Speaker 10: But Saudi Arabia also very much cares about prices and
Speaker 10: they have been a leader in the OPEC plus cartel.
Speaker 10: Just quickly. Is it a big deal that and Goal
Speaker 10: left OPEC plus this week?
Speaker 4: That's a really good question. It is a big deal,
Speaker 4: but it's also not such a big deal because it's
Speaker 4: something that you know, we kind of saw coming. You know,
Speaker 4: we've had other nations leave before Indonesia left, Cutter is left.
Speaker 4: I think that the issue is really this was not
Speaker 4: over that much production. We're talking like seventy thousand barrels
Speaker 4: a day of production.
Speaker 3: But I do think it shows that.
Speaker 4: Angola doesn't want to cut production at all, and they
Speaker 4: really need to pump more, and they're just not willing
Speaker 4: to even pretend to adhere to any kind of opek
Speaker 4: production quotas.
Speaker 10: All right, ellen Wald of the Atlantic Council, It's always
Speaker 10: great to get your perspective. Thanks so much for joining
Speaker 10: us in Happy holidays.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast.
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