1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:18,040 Speaker 2: I'm June Grosso filling in for Joe Matthew. The twenty 6 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 2: twenty four presidential election is likely going to be a 7 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 2: repeat of the twenty twenty contest between President Joe Biden 8 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 2: and former President Donald Trump, but the stakes are much 9 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,479 Speaker 2: higher this time around, and Biden is going to try 10 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 2: to deliver that message to voters. Joining me is Laura Davidson, 11 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics editor. Laura so Biden's campaign manager, says, they're 12 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 2: going to treat this election like it will determine the 13 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:47,559 Speaker 2: fate of American democracy. How are they going to do that? 14 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, the campaign has already started trying to figure out, 15 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 3: you know what messages, you know, in this broader democracy 16 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 3: message are resonating with voters. Unlike in most cycles where 17 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 3: you know you have a you wouldn't necessarily know who 18 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 3: the opponent is. You know, they would have to go 19 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 3: with the primary, wouldn't asiar go through the spring. The 20 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 3: Biden campaign has a pretty clear idea that it's going 21 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:10,040 Speaker 3: to be Trump unless something a major upset happens in 22 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 3: the primaries. So they're already running a lot of ads 23 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 3: trying to figure out what messages resonate with key groups. 24 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 3: And Trump is also very much playing into this message 25 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:20,400 Speaker 3: if they're talking about you know, democracy and that Trump 26 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 3: is a threat to it. Trump is also talking using 27 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 3: this very authoritative language, talking about other authoritative leaders that 28 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,559 Speaker 3: he admires, talking you know, some comments he's made recently 29 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,320 Speaker 3: that have been very reminiscent of remarks from Hitler, things 30 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 3: like that immigrants are poisoning the blood of this country. 31 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 3: So this has really given the Biden campaign a lot 32 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 3: to run on now and get it basically a head 33 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:42,559 Speaker 3: start of where you know, campaigns typically start being able 34 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 3: to figure out this messaging. 35 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, and according to a Quinnipiac University poll that was 36 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 2: released Wednesday, only fifty three percent of respondents are concerned 37 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 2: about Trump's recent comments saying that he would be like 38 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 2: a dictator on day one of his second term. Forty 39 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 2: four percent of respond and said they aren't worried about 40 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 2: that remark, and eighty four percent of Republicans say they 41 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 2: aren't worried about that. So do you think that this 42 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:14,959 Speaker 2: Biden focus on the Trump threat is going to help 43 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 2: to move the needle for him? 44 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 3: It certainly could. The Biden campaign so far has been 45 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 3: talking about Bidenomics on all of the president's economic achievements. 46 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 3: We even saw him go to Wisconsin this week to 47 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 3: give a speech at the Black Chamber of Commerce there 48 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 3: in Milwaukee to talk about his economic proposals and policies 49 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 3: that so far in the polling hasn't really resonated with voters. 50 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 3: You know, you look at head to head matchups, including 51 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:41,399 Speaker 3: a Bloomberg poll shows that that voters in swing states, 52 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 3: of which Wisconsin is one of, Trump is leading Biden 53 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 3: on some of these issues. So this is you know, 54 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 3: kind of a not necessarily a shift, because the campaign 55 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,359 Speaker 3: was already going to talk about democracy, but you see 56 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 3: them leaning more heavily into talking about democracy, talking about 57 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 3: you know, Trump's comments about being a dictator, because they 58 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 3: think that that's the messaging that will resonate more with 59 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 3: voters versus some of these you know, more esoteric policies, 60 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 3: more wonky things about you know, bills that have been 61 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 3: passed over the past several years. 62 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:11,360 Speaker 2: You mentioned the economy. Voters also seem to be concerned 63 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 2: with Biden's age. There's nothing that the campaign can do 64 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 2: about that, but are they planning to frame it in 65 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:18,079 Speaker 2: any way? 66 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, So there's been a couple of things they've been doing. 67 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:23,359 Speaker 3: One is that they've just been trying to make sure 68 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:25,919 Speaker 3: that that Biden appears you know, as strong and as 69 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 3: you know, vital as possible. The other thing is they've 70 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 3: been making some jokes about the age. You know, Biden's 71 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:33,399 Speaker 3: been joking about that, you know, when he's been out 72 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 3: on the campaign trail, you know, when he's been doing 73 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 3: press conferences, just to make it, you know, less of 74 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 3: a liability. The Camaine also points out that that that 75 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 3: Trump is not that much younger than Biden. 76 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 5: He's just three or four years younger. 77 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 3: So this is, you know, going to be an issue. 78 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 3: But when you look at where age resonates with voters, 79 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 3: the age is much more of an issue for Biden 80 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 3: than it is for Trump. And so that's going to 81 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 3: be a key problem that the campaign is going to 82 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 3: have to deal with growing forward. 83 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 6: I know. 84 00:03:57,160 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 2: And it's really surprising because, as you say, they are 85 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 2: pretty close in age, and yet people are always complaining 86 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 2: about Biden being too old. But you don't we usually 87 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 2: hear people saying that about Trump. I don't know how 88 00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 2: they can turn that around. Really. So, now, despite this 89 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:20,479 Speaker 2: history that Trump has of racially divisive comments, surprisingly to me, 90 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 2: he has some of the highest ratings among Black voters 91 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 2: of any candidate from his party. And the Trump campaign 92 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,919 Speaker 2: is going to try to push that and kick off 93 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:37,840 Speaker 2: some television ads and outreach to the black community. Tell 94 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:38,479 Speaker 2: us about that. 95 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:41,919 Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is a deliberate strategy among the Trump 96 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 3: campaign to try to pick up some votes in the 97 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,160 Speaker 3: Black community. You know, they're not. This is the community 98 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,279 Speaker 3: that has traditionally voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. You know, somewhere 99 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 3: ninety percent or even north of that have broken for 100 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 3: for the Democratic presidential candidates. But the Trump campaign season 101 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 3: opening there there. If you look at some of the 102 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 3: polling right now, that shows what people are thinking. That's 103 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 3: not necessarily people think in a year, but that Trump's 104 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 3: favorability is rising among Black voters and Biden's favorability is declining. 105 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 3: So they're seeing this, this opportunity here to maybe pick 106 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 3: up some votes and if they are evile, just to 107 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 3: get you know, three or four percentage points, you know, 108 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 3: increase among Black voters. That could be the difference for 109 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 3: you know, a Biden win versus a Trump win. So 110 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 3: they're aiming to get twenty five percent of the Black vote. 111 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,799 Speaker 3: That would be you know, historically, you know, way higher 112 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 3: than any Republican presidential candidate has gotten you know, roughly twice. 113 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:32,159 Speaker 3: You know, that's they've maxed at around twelve thirteen percent 114 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 3: over the past fifty years. But this is certainly, you know, 115 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:38,679 Speaker 3: something that the Biden campaign is worried about and actively 116 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 3: trying to combat. 117 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 2: Is the Biden campaign or the Trump campaign particularly worried 118 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 2: about third party candidates, of which there are several now 119 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 2: and you have Kennedy in third place in that Quinnipiac poll. 120 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, this is something that both campaigns are worried about 121 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 3: because the risks there are sort of unknown and they 122 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 3: could be very volatile. So, for example, you know, Robert F. 123 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,160 Speaker 3: Kennedy Junior, you know, had run as a Democrat, now 124 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:08,839 Speaker 3: is running as an independent. He's garnering you know, somewhere 125 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:10,919 Speaker 3: around you know, twenty two percent of the vote in 126 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 3: that Quinnipiac poll. He's pulling pretty evenly from Trump and Biden, 127 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:16,600 Speaker 3: but you know, if that starts to change, that could 128 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 3: be a risk. There's also Cornell West who's running as 129 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 3: an independent or. And there also is the uh NO 130 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 3: labels group that is potentially going to launch a presidential campaign. 131 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 3: Joe Manson has made some noise, so that could have 132 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 3: a big influence you in some of these states like Pennsylvania, 133 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:33,720 Speaker 3: where Joe Manson is is well known and popular. You know, 134 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 3: Biden really needs to win that state to be able 135 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 3: to win the presidency. So there's a lot of unknown 136 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 3: variables here that could make this, you know, a surprising upset, 137 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:42,160 Speaker 3: you know, over the summer or the fall. 138 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 2: We've all seen how the third party candidate can make 139 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 2: a difference. Thanks so much, Laura for joining us. That's 140 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison. 141 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 142 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, tune 143 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: in app Bloomberg and the Bloomberg Business App. You can 144 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 145 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:09,679 Speaker 1: York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 146 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 2: Turning out is something millions of Americans are thinking of 147 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 2: as they hit the road for the Christmas holidays, how 148 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 2: much will it take to fill up their tanks. Joining 149 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 2: us to answer that question is Patrick Dehan, head of 150 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 2: petroleum analysis at gas Buddy. So, Patrick, what's the answer 151 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 2: to the question? 152 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 7: Well, fortunately, gas prices have declined for thirteen weeks in 153 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 7: the run up to Christmas. Here the holidays looking rather good. 154 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 7: We're seeing now twenty eight states where the average price 155 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 7: of gaslane is below that three dollars gallon mark. And 156 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 7: while we've seen a little bit of an uptick here 157 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 7: in the last couple of days as oil prices jump 158 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 7: last week, we're still seeing north of ninety five thousand 159 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 7: stations across the United States below that three dollars gallon mark. 160 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 7: Certainly some much lower prices in the last couple of 161 00:07:58,200 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 7: weeks as we approach the holidays. 162 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 2: I'll confess that I don't own a car since I 163 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 2: live in New York City. But how does that line 164 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 2: up with last year? 165 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 7: Well, as a result of the little bit of a 166 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 7: perk up and prices we've seen over the last couple 167 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 7: of days, the national average is up about eight cents 168 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 7: from last week's low. Gas prices now about three and 169 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 7: a half cents above what we saw a year ago, 170 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 7: and again we tried to make that run at a 171 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 7: sub three dollars gallon national average. We got closer this year. 172 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 7: Last week saw the national average declining to three to 173 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 7: two a gallon. Last year we saw the bottom at 174 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 7: three Tozho five. But both years it looks like we're 175 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:38,839 Speaker 7: stopping just short of seeing that national average below the 176 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 7: three dollar mark. 177 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:45,200 Speaker 2: Given the Red Sea attacks and disrupting shipping, how have 178 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:51,560 Speaker 2: oil and gas prices managed to stay relatively contained well? 179 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 7: And that's part of the reason why we have seen 180 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 7: a bit of a bottom, at least potentially short term 181 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 7: in the price of gasoline. Oil prices have rallied on 182 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 7: some of the who the attacks that you mentioned in 183 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 7: the Red Sea. Obviously, that's certainly a worry. A lot 184 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 7: of merchant vessels use the Red Sea in the Suez Canal, 185 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 7: and so we'll have to keep an eye on that. 186 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 7: The other reason that gas prices of reality as well, 187 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:18,079 Speaker 7: optimism that the Federal Reserve could begin potentially cutting interest 188 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 7: rates in twenty twenty four, sparking a rally in the 189 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 7: stock market and oil on the hopes that it would 190 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 7: lead to more economic growth, and that's why we're seeing 191 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 7: a little bit of an uptick here in the last 192 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 7: week when it comes to average gas prices. 193 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 2: And as it costs tankers more to avoid the Red Sea, 194 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 2: can you put a price on how much potentially that 195 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 2: could add to the cost of a gallon of gas. 196 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:46,080 Speaker 7: Yeah, we're talking about a potential very small increase to 197 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 7: price of gasoline. It really depends on how many ships 198 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 7: end up having to divert away from the Red Sea. 199 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 7: And you know, I would quantify it in the sense 200 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 7: per gallon realm. I mean, we're talking about these large 201 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 7: crude carriers that can carry one to two million barrels 202 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 7: of oil per day, So it does water down the 203 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:06,320 Speaker 7: potential cost differential. But what's more important as well is 204 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 7: not necessarily the cost difference, but the time and transit, 205 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 7: taking ten to fourteen days longer to traverse around the 206 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 7: Red Sea. And that's something to keep the eye on 207 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 7: here to see how many more of these tankers are 208 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 7: being diverted away from the Red Sea in the weeks ahead. 209 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:24,679 Speaker 2: So could this spark a supply chain crisis? 210 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 7: I don't think, given the fact that we are in 211 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 7: the winter when demand tends to be lower this is 212 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:33,680 Speaker 7: going to rise in gravity to be a significant event. 213 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 7: But if this does continue into the spring months, when 214 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:39,439 Speaker 7: we do start to see seasonal demand rising, or if 215 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 7: we suddenly get a spurt of extremely cold weather, the 216 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 7: red Sea could become a more profound issue in terms 217 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 7: of the impact on oil prices, But for now it's 218 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 7: fairly mundane. 219 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 2: Could all this the shipping delays driving up the price 220 00:10:56,280 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 2: of goods? Could it potentially bring a new inflation risk 221 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 2: to the global economy. 222 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 7: I would say at this point that that risk is 223 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 7: quite minimal. The good news is that while gasoline prices 224 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 7: have gone up slightly, the price of diesel has come 225 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 7: down substantially, and a lot of that being driven by 226 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 7: warmer than normal temperatures for this time of year. So 227 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,320 Speaker 7: diesel is really the fuel that you'd have to carefully 228 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 7: monitor for more of an effect on inflation, since much 229 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 7: of the nation's final transit is using diesel, and the 230 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 7: price of diesel actually has continued to sink in the 231 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 7: last couple of weeks, in fact, falling below four dollars 232 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 7: again nationally, so that would impact diesel more significantly, but 233 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,839 Speaker 7: the warmer weather is really offsetting the risk. Thus, far 234 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 7: from what's happening in the Red Sea. 235 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 2: In your at gas Buddy, do you find that consumers 236 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:53,600 Speaker 2: are worried as much about gas prices as say, a 237 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 2: few years ago, and you know that it's something that 238 00:11:56,520 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 2: factors into their travelsly. 239 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 7: I think gas prices remain the sole economic barometer. Americans 240 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 7: see those prices on the street corner. It really sets 241 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 7: the tone for how they feel about the broader economy. 242 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:13,199 Speaker 7: And seeing gas prices that as we mentioned that tens 243 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 7: of thousands of stations that have slipped below three dollars, 244 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 7: it's no mistake that sentiment. Consumer sentiment is increasing on 245 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 7: the fact that this one good that many Americans know 246 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:25,680 Speaker 7: the price of, whether they need it or not, has 247 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 7: come down. And I think that plays into the psyche 248 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 7: of consumers that are feeling a little bit more upbeat 249 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 7: because they've seen energy prices crumbling. 250 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 2: So as energy prices crumble, are we going to see 251 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 2: airplane tickets come. 252 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 7: Down to well? I certainly think that that's a dynamic 253 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 7: that is also that is airline prices are also set 254 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 7: more so on supply and demand of available seats, and 255 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 7: I do think that there's a little bit of a 256 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 7: loosening happening there as well, as a lot of Americans 257 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 7: got out to travel internationally this summer, the State Department 258 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,679 Speaker 7: saying that passport delays are now negligible, They're back to normal, 259 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:04,880 Speaker 7: and I think that spells that there may be a 260 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 7: brief lull in consumer demand to travel overseas, especially in 261 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 7: the winter months. Airlines are now feeling more pressure to 262 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 7: lower fares, not only because jet fuel, but because broadly speaking, 263 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:19,959 Speaker 7: more Americans have kind of got that travel bug out 264 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,199 Speaker 7: of their system, and we are seeing a seasonal uptick 265 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 7: for the holidays. But beyond that, airlines may find capacity 266 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 7: a little bit looser in the year ahead, especially as 267 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:30,199 Speaker 7: many of them add planes to their fleets. 268 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 2: That would be good to see now is a two 269 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 2: dollars ninety nine cent a gallon gas price likely to 270 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 2: become the national average sometime on the horizon this year 271 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:46,280 Speaker 2: next year. 272 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 7: Well, you know, I'm very hopeful that we will have 273 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 7: a window of opportunity that could see a return potentially 274 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 7: of sub three dollars prices, maybe in January February, but 275 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,560 Speaker 7: it's really going to be contingent on the pace of 276 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 7: the economy. If the Fed cantinues to hint that interest 277 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 7: rate cuts are going to be happening. I think there's 278 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 7: going to be a broad recovery in the economy, potentially 279 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 7: with reduced borrowing costs, and that would probably negate the 280 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 7: possibility of a sub three dollars average. So if we're 281 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 7: to see a sub three dollars average, a two ninety 282 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 7: nine average, I think the window of opportunity would be 283 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:21,280 Speaker 7: January and February, and then that window basically closes for 284 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 7: the spring and summer, and it may reopen next fall. 285 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 2: And just about a minute left here, Patrick, do you 286 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 2: see a lot of travel or a lot of Americans 287 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 2: going to hit the road this holiday season? 288 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 7: We certainly do, not only air travel because of how 289 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 7: open up that has become, but certainly cars offer more 290 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 7: flexibility than air travel does, and consumers being greeted in 291 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 7: many many states, I mean we were at thirty one 292 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 7: states with sub three dollars prices. I think many consumers 293 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 7: are getting back into the mode of transit of using 294 00:14:56,920 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 7: their cars simply it offers supreme flexibility, It avoids the 295 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 7: headaches of the airport, especially at the holidays when airports 296 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:07,000 Speaker 7: tend to be very busy. So Americans Devlin are flocking 297 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 7: back to the roads. 298 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 2: Thanks so much. Patrick. That's Patrick d'han, head of petroleum 299 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 2: analysis at gas Buddy. 300 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 301 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 302 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 303 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 304 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 2: What's your choice for the top political stories of twenty 305 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 2: twenty three? Of course, there's the former president being indicted 306 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 2: four times on ninety one felony counts, but still leading 307 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 2: his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination. There's the George 308 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 2: Santos saga that was fodder for late night comedians all year. 309 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 2: And remember the chaos as Republicans took control of the House, 310 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 2: taking four days to elect Speaker Kevin McCarthy and then 311 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 2: ousting him after only ten months. There is so much 312 00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 2: more as well. I've been talking with Genie Shane's Zo 313 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor and Lisa Camuso Miller, former R and 314 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 2: C communications director and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. 315 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 2: So Lisa, you go first. What is your favorite political 316 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:14,720 Speaker 2: story of twenty twenty three? 317 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 8: Oh, June it has got to be the House of 318 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 8: Representatives in the Republican Conference, no question. I mean, not 319 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 8: only fifteen votes to get Kevin McCarthy in to be speaker, 320 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 8: but then a full three weeks to get a new 321 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 8: speaker after they asked it him. And that alone is 322 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 8: the chaos that has just ensued on so many different 323 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 8: levels and so different ways. It's held up funding for Ukraine, 324 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 8: it's held up our support for Israel, It's held up 325 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 8: so many different things, and I think it's just going 326 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 8: to continue into twenty twenty four. So in my opinion, 327 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 8: that has to be the biggest political story of the year. 328 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 2: Ginny, do you agree or do you want to pick 329 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 2: another one? 330 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 9: Oh, there's so many, And of course I agree with Lisa. 331 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 9: And by the way, June, I have to say, how 332 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 9: lovely it is for the last show of the year 333 00:16:56,720 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 9: to be on with you and Lisa, because all women power. 334 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 2: I can feel it. 335 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 9: That's right, you know, I agree with Lisa on that. 336 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 9: But let me just add, you know another one. You know, 337 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 9: I think you mentioned the indictments of Donald Trump. You know, 338 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:20,120 Speaker 9: as I think back to this year will go earlier 339 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:23,640 Speaker 9: than this the idea that the leading presidential candidate would 340 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 9: be subject to over ninety counts against him, and yet 341 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 9: with every single count, as we've talked about so much, 342 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:35,160 Speaker 9: he only grows in the polls, his fundraising only goes up. 343 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 6: You know. 344 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:39,480 Speaker 9: It is just quite an astounding thing. So that's to 345 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,919 Speaker 9: me an enormous story of the year. And of course, 346 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 9: you know, you look overseas, have to say October seventh, 347 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 9: and the horror of that event and what has followed. 348 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 9: You know, many of us in the Biden administration in particular, 349 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:56,359 Speaker 9: thought that things were calming down a bit, moving forward, 350 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 9: getting more positive. In the Middle East, absolutely upended. So 351 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,360 Speaker 9: there's an awful lot to choose from. But those are 352 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 9: two that I would just add on the table. 353 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, some of these just keep oncoming. 354 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:13,120 Speaker 2: And I'm thinking of the revelations about the lavish trips 355 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 2: and other freebies that Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas got 356 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 2: from Republican mega donors. And you know, now there are 357 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 2: calls for him to recuse himself in any upcoming case 358 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 2: involving former President Trump. Do you think that would happen, Lisa. 359 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 8: I mean, you know, June in a previous five years before, 360 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:40,439 Speaker 8: maybe yes, The answer is yes, but now it's just 361 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:43,240 Speaker 8: so hard to know, right because so much of what 362 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 8: we have known to be the facts and the tenets 363 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 8: of the US federal government system have changed in so 364 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 8: many different ways. And to me, it's just another it's 365 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 8: just another layer onto ninety one counts ninety one the 366 00:18:57,720 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 8: four indictments, and ninety one counts for the former press. 367 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 8: But yet still he may get the nominee a nomination, 368 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 8: and he's still very well is in contention to be 369 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 8: the next president of the United States. So as much 370 00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 8: as I would say yes, this definitely is something that 371 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 8: is a disqualifier and ought to be something that we 372 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:17,639 Speaker 8: look very closely at in their Supreme court system, I 373 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 8: wish I could say yes, But the answer is I 374 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 8: just don't know. 375 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:26,119 Speaker 2: And now I'm going to bring in our board op Sebastian, 376 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,959 Speaker 2: who has come up with a different story, and that 377 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:33,919 Speaker 2: is the return of American Unions. Genie. That has to 378 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 2: be on the list. 379 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:39,200 Speaker 9: Sebastian so smart, so it should be. 380 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 5: On the list. 381 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:43,359 Speaker 9: You know, we saw so many strikes this over the 382 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:46,879 Speaker 9: last year, everything from the actors and writers of course, 383 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 9: to the UAW nurses and beyond, and you know, Sebastian. 384 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:53,679 Speaker 9: I want to also pick up on what he said, 385 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 9: because Sean Faine, I mean, what an enormous and enormous 386 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:02,800 Speaker 9: powerhouse he turned out to be, and really I think 387 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:06,159 Speaker 9: changed the way many people think about the power of 388 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,159 Speaker 9: labor and really showed us a new way for labor 389 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 9: to go forward. And of course, you know, working with 390 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 9: or you know, we're all living under a president who 391 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 9: describes himself as labor's you know, biggest friend, Joe Biden, 392 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,639 Speaker 9: and the idea that we'd have a president go on 393 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 9: the go to and join the strike, we'd have leading 394 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 9: presidential candidate and Donald Trump go out there, go to 395 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 9: a non unionized shop. But labor certainly has made an 396 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 9: enormous resurgence, and I do think as we think about 397 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 9: going forward, we will continue to see because of in 398 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 9: fact of the success the UAW had a lot of 399 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:48,159 Speaker 9: labor activity and efforts to try to unionize even further 400 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 9: and across other industries. 401 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 2: Just a few minutes here, Lisa, which branch of government 402 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 2: we've looked at at some political stories from all which 403 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 2: will make the most news in twenty. 404 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 8: Wow, that's a big list and it's really hard to say, June, 405 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 8: but the one thing I would say is that what 406 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,160 Speaker 8: the trend that we've been seeing in the US House 407 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 8: of Representatives and really in the Congress is that they 408 00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,399 Speaker 8: were hoping to get back to a regular order and 409 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 8: get back to the traditional appropriations process, doing business the 410 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:21,200 Speaker 8: way we used to do it, which seems kind of 411 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 8: silly now that we've talked about how things have all changed. 412 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 8: And so going into the new year, it was the 413 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 8: one thing that got Kevin McCarthy aust did as the speaker. 414 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 8: It looks as if we're going to have a year 415 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 8: long cr at the beginning of the year, rather than 416 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,440 Speaker 8: going back to what folks had hoped that they would 417 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 8: be able to do. So that's the way things are 418 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 8: going to spread out over twenty four is a little 419 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 8: bit more of the same over and over again. And 420 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:43,439 Speaker 8: so I continue to look at the House and the 421 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 8: Senate and say, that's going to set the tone because 422 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 8: the election itself is a lot more of the same 423 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:53,399 Speaker 8: two candidates that nobody's very excited about. And so that alone, 424 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 8: I think, is what's going to make things very contentious 425 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 8: and very hostile over the course and the dialogue over 426 00:21:58,680 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 8: the course of twenty four. 427 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 2: Of course, I'm going to vote for the judiciary because 428 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,120 Speaker 2: the Supreme Court is going to be making a lot 429 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 2: of decisions having to do having an impact on the 430 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 2: presidential election coming up, as well as decisions on abortion 431 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 2: and the Second Amendment and all kinds of agency attacks. 432 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,640 Speaker 2: So that's my vote, naturally, but you could have guessed that. 433 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 2: Thank you both so much. That's Jenny Schenzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor, 434 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 2: and Lisa Camusso Miller, former R and C communications director 435 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:34,359 Speaker 2: and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Thank you both. 436 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the 437 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 438 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:46,160 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 439 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:49,160 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 440 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 441 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 10: Well, we got inflation data today that came in cool 442 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 10: and it was very important to what we're talking about. 443 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,120 Speaker 10: Here is the PCEE deflator, and for those who aren't familiar, 444 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,920 Speaker 10: this is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. We actually saw 445 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 10: disinflation on the monthly figure when it came to the 446 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,879 Speaker 10: headline down a tenth of a percent month on month, 447 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,879 Speaker 10: and ladies and gentlemen, no surprise, the White House decided 448 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 10: it wanted to take a little bit of a victory 449 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 10: lap on this, which is why I had the opportunity 450 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 10: earlier today to speak with Lael Brainerd, who, of course 451 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 10: as a former Federal Reserve official, but also now is 452 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,879 Speaker 10: the director of the National Economic Council. And while she 453 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,680 Speaker 10: did tout the progress that has been made in inflation, 454 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:35,399 Speaker 10: I asked her, why isn't President Biden getting credit for it? 455 00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 10: And what can he do to fix that? This was 456 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 10: some of her answer. 457 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 5: Americans may finally beginning to feel a little bit more confident, 458 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 5: a little bit more secure. But the President is going 459 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,959 Speaker 5: to continue to push us to work to lower costs 460 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 5: for American families and to keep these gains over the 461 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,680 Speaker 5: course of the next year and years. 462 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 10: All right, So let's add another perspective to this conversation. 463 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 10: I'm pleased to say joining me now is Congressman Brad Sherman, 464 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,680 Speaker 10: the Democrat from California who also sits on the Financial 465 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 10: Services Committee. So, Congressman, that makes your perspective valuable here. 466 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,000 Speaker 10: If you were to just look at the data today, 467 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 10: it would suggest that perhaps Bidenomics is working, yet it 468 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 10: isn't resonating with voters. So if that's the case, doesn't 469 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 10: really matter at. 470 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 11: All, Well, certainly it matters for the economy. Winning elections 471 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 11: is nice, but the country doing well is the reason 472 00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:36,280 Speaker 11: we try to win elections. I think this will resonate. 473 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,719 Speaker 11: There's now in the polling a disconnect with how people 474 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:43,359 Speaker 11: feel they're doing economically personally and how they feel the 475 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 11: country is doing. And I think that that discordance will 476 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 11: narrow as we get to the election and people will say, hey, 477 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:53,119 Speaker 11: I'm doing all right, my cousin's got a job, and 478 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 11: maybe the entire economy is doing well. Certainly, results like 479 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 11: this with the with negative inflation, I'll be it a 480 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:07,119 Speaker 11: little bit and only on the top line. But to 481 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,920 Speaker 11: see this downward pressure on prices is very good. 482 00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:14,920 Speaker 10: Well, in this downward pressure on prices have led many 483 00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,879 Speaker 10: in financial markets and others to say, hey, the Fed 484 00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,280 Speaker 10: is probably going to turn around and start cutting rates 485 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 10: pretty soon. I know that often there is a dislike 486 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 10: of weighing in on FED policy among elected representatives, but 487 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,440 Speaker 10: do you think that that would be a fair assumption 488 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,040 Speaker 10: that the FED is going to be in a position 489 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,200 Speaker 10: to cut rates in the not so distant future. 490 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,639 Speaker 11: I think the market things that I'm not reluctant to 491 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 11: chime in on this, but the effect of this blockade 492 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 11: by the Huthi of the Red Sea, Let's see what 493 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 11: that does not only to the goods that typically go 494 00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 11: through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, but also 495 00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,480 Speaker 11: the price of shipping, because if you're going to need 496 00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,760 Speaker 11: hundreds and hundreds of ships going around the Cape of 497 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 11: Good Hope, that's just ships that aren't available, and shipping 498 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 11: is a supply and demand. So we've got to look 499 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,879 Speaker 11: at the geopolitical both the Middle East and Ukraine. But 500 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,080 Speaker 11: I'm hoping very much that we see a rate cut 501 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 11: in March or April. 502 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 10: So you raised some of these jiga political concerns, like 503 00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,359 Speaker 10: what we're seeing in the Red Sea that potentially is 504 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 10: a risk not just in terms of energy flow and 505 00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,879 Speaker 10: energy prices, but also supply chains. We all remember what 506 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:35,120 Speaker 10: happened during the pandemic, how those supply chains got snarled, 507 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,239 Speaker 10: and that's really a large part of what got us 508 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,280 Speaker 10: into this inflationary mess in the first place. What is 509 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 10: your degree of concern at this point that we could 510 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,359 Speaker 10: find ourselves and, if not as dramatic, at least a 511 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:47,920 Speaker 10: similar position. 512 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,400 Speaker 11: Again, Oh, I don't think it'll be as dramatic as 513 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:55,600 Speaker 11: we saw two or three years ago. But you've got 514 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,159 Speaker 11: a lot of ships that are now going around the 515 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,880 Speaker 11: Cape of Good Hope, and so their journeys will take 516 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 11: almost twice as long, and that means those ships aren't 517 00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 11: available to bid on the next bit of cargo, whether 518 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:16,000 Speaker 11: that cargo is going across the Pacific or or whatever 519 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,879 Speaker 11: route it might take. So I do think shipping costs 520 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:22,720 Speaker 11: will go up. The hope is that this is just 521 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 11: uplip and hopefully we can push the Iranians and their subsidiary, 522 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:33,400 Speaker 11: the Hoothies, out of this process of eating the Red Sea. 523 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:38,000 Speaker 10: Well, Congressman, how exactly in your mind should that pushing happen? 524 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 10: Because we have seen the US assembling a task force, 525 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:45,080 Speaker 10: which the Pentagon says now includes twenty nations trying to 526 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:49,080 Speaker 10: deter and defend essentially merchant vessels in the Red Sea that, 527 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,919 Speaker 10: though is not an offensive move, would you be encouraging 528 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 10: the US to directly strike the Hoothies at this point. 529 00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,240 Speaker 11: We hope that we can deal with this just by 530 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:04,200 Speaker 11: playing defense, just by shooting down the drones and showing 531 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 11: commercial shippers and insurers that this is safe. If that 532 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 11: doesn't happen, we can either take violent action against the Houthis, 533 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 11: or we can expose the Iranians to what they're exposing 534 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,040 Speaker 11: the world to. We could interrupt their shipping in any 535 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,879 Speaker 11: ocean of the world. So, whether it is a threat 536 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 11: and attention of this or that ship bound for Ran, 537 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 11: or whether it is kinetic action against the Houthie, if 538 00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 11: that's necessary, I think we do it. As of now, 539 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:40,120 Speaker 11: we may be able to create safety just by shooting 540 00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:43,400 Speaker 11: down drones and missiles that the Hoothy launched. 541 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 7: Well. 542 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 10: And of course, the consideration for the US here is 543 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,440 Speaker 10: the idea that they don't want to escalate this conflict 544 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 10: any further, right, they don't want this to turn into 545 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:56,040 Speaker 10: a broader regional conflict beyond what is already happening between 546 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,400 Speaker 10: Israel and Hamas in Gaza. And that's where I'd like 547 00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,320 Speaker 10: to go with you, next Congressman, if we could. The 548 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,400 Speaker 10: UN Security Council just passed a resolution today, the US 549 00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 10: abstaining from this vote that calls for the continued flow 550 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 10: of aid and increased flow of aid into the Gaza strip. 551 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,200 Speaker 10: It stopped short of demanding a ceasefire, and part of 552 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 10: that was because of the US's concerns about that language, 553 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 10: because that is not something the administration is pushing at 554 00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 10: this point. But there are growing calls for that. Sir As. 555 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:28,320 Speaker 10: We see the death toll in Gaza rising substantially. Knowing 556 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,880 Speaker 10: especially that you are the co chair of the Israel 557 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,120 Speaker 10: Allies Conference or caucus in the House, what do you 558 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,640 Speaker 10: say for calls for Israel to stop the bombing. 559 00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 11: The scenes we see in Gaza are horrendous. We want 560 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,840 Speaker 11: the killing to end. Israel has offered a week long 561 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 11: cease fire if the terrorists will release forty hostages. That 562 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:57,360 Speaker 11: has been rejected by Hamas. We could have a permanent 563 00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 11: cease fire if they Hamas were to release all the 564 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:08,000 Speaker 11: hostages and either disarm themselves and turn themselves in, or 565 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 11: I think we could arrange a departure for the Hamas 566 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 11: fighters or at least their top leadership, to Iran or 567 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 11: a similar country. But as long as a mass insists 568 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:23,920 Speaker 11: upon a bargaining for a ceasefire, that is simply a 569 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:27,960 Speaker 11: chance for them to regroup and repeat their rampages of 570 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:33,040 Speaker 11: October seventh. Obviously nobody, no same person is going to 571 00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:36,400 Speaker 11: accept that. But we could have a week long ceasefire. 572 00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,960 Speaker 11: Israel has offered that, not for even all the hostages, 573 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 11: but just for forty. Hamas knows that as long as 574 00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,520 Speaker 11: the people of gas that die, a mass becomes more 575 00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:48,760 Speaker 11: popular than worth, and they keep doing it. 576 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 10: Well to these ideas of negotiations around another potential agreement 577 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:58,160 Speaker 10: to release the hostages. Obviously, there was a temporary ceasefire 578 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,120 Speaker 10: earlier in the conflict that ended several weeks ago. There 579 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 10: was a lot of conversation at that time for when 580 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,520 Speaker 10: that stopped, this idea that it would be much harder 581 00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 10: to reach a deal the second time around. How confident 582 00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,560 Speaker 10: are you that another deal can be reached between Hamas 583 00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 10: and Israel and those parties that are helping negotiate this. 584 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 11: Amas realized that they had a public relations problem if 585 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 11: they held children, women, and foreigners, chiefly agricultural workers from 586 00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:32,640 Speaker 11: the Philippines and Thailand, and they have released those in 587 00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:39,840 Speaker 11: return for many concessions. Obviously, the idea of kidnapping hostages 588 00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,640 Speaker 11: and getting concessions shouldn't please anybody, but they got the 589 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:47,960 Speaker 11: concessions and they released. When it comes to male hostages, 590 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:52,880 Speaker 11: even the elderly you just saw, they recently released a 591 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:58,480 Speaker 11: video of three men over the age of seventy. They 592 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:03,720 Speaker 11: are trying to extract to enormous prices for those hostages, 593 00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,600 Speaker 11: and I don't think they'll be successful. But we can 594 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,680 Speaker 11: have a week long cease fire, which is a giant 595 00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 11: resupply opportunity to the people of Gaza if only release 596 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,960 Speaker 11: forty hostages, presumably they would be releasing elderly man. 597 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,560 Speaker 10: Well, Congressman. Of course, when you return to Washington after 598 00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 10: this holiday break, the issue of funding for Israel, as 599 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,800 Speaker 10: well as funding for Ukraine and border security is one 600 00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:31,760 Speaker 10: that is probably going to be front and center in 601 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,680 Speaker 10: addition to trying to fund the government and avoid a 602 00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:38,680 Speaker 10: partial shutdown on January nineteenth. When it comes to that fundament, 603 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:43,640 Speaker 10: that supplemental funding package, what border measures do you, as 604 00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,480 Speaker 10: a Democrat in the House of Representative think are appropriate 605 00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:50,440 Speaker 10: for the White House to compromise on here, Well. 606 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:54,040 Speaker 11: I'm not going to negotiate on radio. I think the 607 00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:58,880 Speaker 11: Biden opening position of having an orderly border with our 608 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 11: border control properly funded our that's our position now. If 609 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:09,600 Speaker 11: we're going to actually change any of our policies that 610 00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 11: needs to be negotiated behind closed doors. But the idea 611 00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:19,760 Speaker 11: that Republicans would fail to fund aid for Israel and 612 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:23,440 Speaker 11: aid to Ukraine in order to extract a concession of 613 00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 11: what is pretty much a domestic issue, that's not the 614 00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:30,880 Speaker 11: Republican party I saw twenty years ago. 615 00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:36,360 Speaker 10: Okay, So how does all of this come together? 616 00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:36,600 Speaker 6: Then? 617 00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,360 Speaker 10: What is your degree of confidence that a supplemental is 618 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,520 Speaker 10: going to be able to be passed at all when 619 00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:46,240 Speaker 10: even there's questions around them must pass must pass appropriation bills. 620 00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:52,280 Speaker 11: I have fifty to fifty confidence in our ability to 621 00:33:54,200 --> 00:34:01,800 Speaker 11: fund the Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and border. One could imagine 622 00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,400 Speaker 11: that if that guy was Steiny, that Israel would move 623 00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:11,320 Speaker 11: forward separately, don't know, and that certainly isn't the administration's position. 624 00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:15,600 Speaker 11: Then we face possible shutdown of the US government, some 625 00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:19,080 Speaker 11: of it on the nineteenth of January, some on February second, 626 00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:28,600 Speaker 11: and the Republican bargaining position hasn't even been articulated, let alone, 627 00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:36,360 Speaker 11: you know, and their reluctance to have another CR or 628 00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:40,480 Speaker 11: a continuing resolution means we could very well face shutdowns 629 00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:45,399 Speaker 11: to the US government at the beginning of the next year. 630 00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:51,879 Speaker 11: This is the Republicans are so unreasonable they won't even 631 00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,520 Speaker 11: articulate openly what their position is. 632 00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:57,840 Speaker 10: Well, twenty twenty four, Congressman is going to be a 633 00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,480 Speaker 10: doozy for a multitude of reasons. But on this subject 634 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:02,279 Speaker 10: of twenty twenty four, of course, a lot of news 635 00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:04,720 Speaker 10: was made this week when the Colorado State Supreme Court 636 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,560 Speaker 10: ruled that former President Trump should be off the ballot 637 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:09,680 Speaker 10: in that state, that he is ineligible to be president 638 00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:12,600 Speaker 10: on the grounds of the fourteenth Amendment. And I actually 639 00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:15,719 Speaker 10: spoke with your colleague, a Democrat from California just like you, 640 00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,000 Speaker 10: John Gary Mendi, about this earlier, and his take was interesting. 641 00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:20,680 Speaker 10: I'd like to get your response to it. This is 642 00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 10: what he had to say. 643 00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,759 Speaker 6: I believe that Trump should be given the chance to 644 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,160 Speaker 6: be on the ballot, and I suspect the Supreme Court 645 00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:32,960 Speaker 6: will so rule. Were that not to happen, I believe 646 00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:37,800 Speaker 6: we'd have a very serious, very very serious political crisis 647 00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,719 Speaker 6: in the United States if, in fact, Trump were not 648 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:45,640 Speaker 6: allowed to be on the presidential on the ballots in November. 649 00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:49,520 Speaker 10: Congressman Sherman, do you agree with that view? 650 00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:54,240 Speaker 11: I think we'd face major difficulty if he wasn't allowed 651 00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:58,440 Speaker 11: to be on the ballot, although many many of my 652 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:02,440 Speaker 11: Republican friends would hope that the Republicans would nominate a 653 00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:07,520 Speaker 11: different candidate, Nikki Haley or whomever. Section three of the 654 00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:14,800 Speaker 11: fourteenth Amendment is a inadequately defined and highly dangerous provision. 655 00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:20,759 Speaker 11: It not only deals with those who engage in insurrection, 656 00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:25,600 Speaker 11: but also allows the exclusion of people who have given 657 00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:29,279 Speaker 11: aid or comfort to our enemies, and that is not 658 00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:34,360 Speaker 11: well defined. I protested against the Vietnam War long ago. 659 00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:38,720 Speaker 11: I've got colleagues who have voted against daide to Israel, 660 00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:44,040 Speaker 11: and presumably someone could argue that either of those acts 661 00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:47,280 Speaker 11: is making the enemies of the United States feel aided. 662 00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:53,239 Speaker 11: So we need at some point to have statutes that 663 00:36:54,400 --> 00:37:00,520 Speaker 11: carefully define this section. Up until now obscure section of 664 00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:07,040 Speaker 11: the fourteenth Amendment as to whether Trump engaged in insurrection 665 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:12,800 Speaker 11: or only aided insurrection, whether the presidency is covering and 666 00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:15,080 Speaker 11: by six we're going to have to see the court 667 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:15,600 Speaker 11: set rule. 668 00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:17,279 Speaker 6: All right. 669 00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:20,520 Speaker 10: Congressman Bradshrman, the Democrat from California. Great to have you 670 00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:22,919 Speaker 10: weigh in and join us today. Thank you so much. 671 00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:24,239 Speaker 10: In a Happy New Year to you. 672 00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:28,719 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 673 00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:32,640 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 674 00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:36,040 Speaker 1: tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 675 00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 676 00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:43,520 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 677 00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:50,000 Speaker 10: Just today, after several days of delay, the United Nations 678 00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,640 Speaker 10: Security Council was finally able to pass a resolution calling 679 00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,160 Speaker 10: for increased aid into the Gaza Strip. This, of course, 680 00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:00,160 Speaker 10: is the conflict between Israel and hamas continues. What this 681 00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,840 Speaker 10: resolution did not do, however, is demand a cease fire 682 00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:07,160 Speaker 10: between them, instead calling on parties to quote create the 683 00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:11,279 Speaker 10: conditions for a sustained cessation of hostilities. This was a 684 00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,960 Speaker 10: result of negotiations that had to take place over language 685 00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:17,960 Speaker 10: to avoid a US veto. The US ended up abstaining 686 00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:20,520 Speaker 10: from this vote. And while that work is being done, 687 00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:23,600 Speaker 10: the US also has its size on the Red Sea. 688 00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:25,759 Speaker 10: As we've been reporting over the last several days, they've 689 00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:28,719 Speaker 10: assembled a maritime task force. The Pentagon now says more 690 00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:31,480 Speaker 10: than twenty nations are taking part as they try to 691 00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,400 Speaker 10: make sure it is safe enough for commercial and merchant 692 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:39,000 Speaker 10: vessels to pass because of threat or actual hoothy attacks. 693 00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:41,160 Speaker 10: This is where we want to begin with Ellen Wald. 694 00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,759 Speaker 10: She is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and 695 00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:46,799 Speaker 10: also author of Saudi Inked. Ellen, thank you so much 696 00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,399 Speaker 10: for joining. It's always great to see you and get 697 00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,480 Speaker 10: your perspective. I want to first start with New York 698 00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:55,960 Speaker 10: Times reporting today that Iran has been helping the Houthi 699 00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:59,920 Speaker 10: militia in Yemen plan and carry out these attacks against 700 00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:04,080 Speaker 10: commercial shipping vessels. This is according to newly declassified American 701 00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:08,080 Speaker 10: intelligence that the Times is citing. Should this be a surprise. 702 00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:10,880 Speaker 4: You know, I don't think it is a surprise. It 703 00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:12,120 Speaker 4: shouldn't become as a surprise. 704 00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:13,040 Speaker 6: You know. 705 00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:16,680 Speaker 4: It's pretty impressive the gains the Houthis have made, you know, 706 00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:20,280 Speaker 4: over the past several years, but the kinds of things 707 00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:25,880 Speaker 4: that they are doing need more advanced, uh, you know, weapons, 708 00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:29,360 Speaker 4: guidance systems than it was really believed that they that 709 00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:32,879 Speaker 4: they had. So I think what's interesting though, is that, 710 00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:34,960 Speaker 4: you know, the United States is saying it's not just 711 00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:38,440 Speaker 4: the weapons that that they're giving them, but that they 712 00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:42,600 Speaker 4: that they are basically doing the planning and executing the 713 00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:47,319 Speaker 4: real time you know, guidance systems. And in response, of 714 00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:50,239 Speaker 4: course that Ron says, uh, you know, we have no 715 00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:53,000 Speaker 4: control over the actions of the Houthis and and whatnot. 716 00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,200 Speaker 4: And so it's kind of a case of like, you know, 717 00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:58,520 Speaker 4: are they or are they not? And I think the 718 00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:01,359 Speaker 4: the issue is really how much does the US want 719 00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,800 Speaker 4: to press this because the more evidence that is a 720 00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:08,440 Speaker 4: symbol that shows the direct involvement of Iran and these things, 721 00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:12,800 Speaker 4: it pushes the US and potentially some other members of 722 00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:16,719 Speaker 4: this coalition towards a more direct confrontation with Iran and 723 00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:22,080 Speaker 4: all of the incredible risks and increases in insecurity risks 724 00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:24,640 Speaker 4: that come with it, as opposed to if the US 725 00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,479 Speaker 4: is well, you know, Iran is denying this, so we're 726 00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,640 Speaker 4: just going to deal with the issue and not the 727 00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:33,160 Speaker 4: Iran issue. Of course, in that case you risk this 728 00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:35,600 Speaker 4: conflict and these issues just stretching on. 729 00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:39,239 Speaker 10: Well, Ellen, hold that thought. Just bear with me a second, 730 00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:42,280 Speaker 10: as we do have some breaking news just to bring 731 00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,720 Speaker 10: our listeners and audience aware of coming from the Supreme Court. 732 00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:49,440 Speaker 10: The Court refusing to put the Trump immunity clash on 733 00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:51,840 Speaker 10: the fast track. The background to here of course, is 734 00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:55,239 Speaker 10: this is related to the jack Smith Special Council case 735 00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,640 Speaker 10: brought here in Washington, related to twenty twenty election interference. 736 00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,560 Speaker 10: Jacksmith had asked for Sir Court to expedite a decision 737 00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:05,960 Speaker 10: around immunity for former President Trump. Trump and his legal 738 00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:08,560 Speaker 10: team had asked the Court not to accelerate this, saying 739 00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:12,040 Speaker 10: that Jacksmith's argument was essentially not valid, and it does 740 00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:15,000 Speaker 10: seem this is how the Court has ruled, refusing to 741 00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:18,040 Speaker 10: put that immunity clash on the fast track in this 742 00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,360 Speaker 10: January sixth case, so they will not consider it immediately. 743 00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:23,280 Speaker 10: And of course this effort on the part of Jacksmith 744 00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,120 Speaker 10: was in part to make sure the trial could indeed 745 00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:27,360 Speaker 10: start when he wants it to, which is an early 746 00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:30,120 Speaker 10: March of next year, so less than three months away. Again, 747 00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:33,880 Speaker 10: the Supreme Court not fast tracking this Trump immunity clash, 748 00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:36,160 Speaker 10: And we will return to that in just a few minutes. 749 00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:38,280 Speaker 10: But Ellen to come back to you on what's happening 750 00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:42,040 Speaker 10: not here domestically in Washington, but what's happening in terms 751 00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:44,600 Speaker 10: of geopolitics. This idea that you were just mentioning on 752 00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:48,040 Speaker 10: the broadening of the conflict when we think about the notion, 753 00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:50,279 Speaker 10: as we've been reporting over the last week or so, 754 00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:53,040 Speaker 10: that the US is considering potentially going on offense here 755 00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:56,920 Speaker 10: trying to strike the Huthies directly. A. Would that be 756 00:41:57,160 --> 00:42:00,200 Speaker 10: an escalation, There's just no other way to phrase it. 757 00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:04,040 Speaker 10: And and B would actually that also potentially be damaging 758 00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:07,040 Speaker 10: to alliances in the Middle East, specifically with Saudi Arabia. 759 00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:11,840 Speaker 4: So yeah, it's it's a very complicated situation because you know, 760 00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:14,400 Speaker 4: in some perspects, you do have there is already an 761 00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:18,080 Speaker 4: American naval vessel in that area that has been basically 762 00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:21,520 Speaker 4: defending these ships against attacks. The issue is that they 763 00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:26,560 Speaker 4: haven't actually struck back, you know, to say any who's 764 00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:29,759 Speaker 4: the you know, infrastructure on land where these attacks are 765 00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:31,560 Speaker 4: coming from. They're just kind of trying to thwart them 766 00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:35,520 Speaker 4: in the water. But that there are all of these 767 00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:38,520 Speaker 4: other issues because for a long time, Saudi Arabia and 768 00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:41,759 Speaker 4: the UEI were essentially involved in a war against the Huthis, 769 00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:45,120 Speaker 4: and they finally kind of reached this period like carefully 770 00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:49,000 Speaker 4: cultivated quasi deton in that in that war, I mean, 771 00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:51,600 Speaker 4: because several years ago the Huthis were shooting you know, 772 00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:55,120 Speaker 4: rockets at Riod and at major airports in Saudi Arabia. 773 00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:59,000 Speaker 4: So this I think is something that the Saudis really 774 00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:02,960 Speaker 4: don't want to we start. And so whatever the US 775 00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:04,440 Speaker 4: is going to do, they're gonna have to tread very 776 00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:07,600 Speaker 4: carefully because both they don't want to mess this up. 777 00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:11,680 Speaker 4: But at the same time, getting Saudi and UAE buy 778 00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:15,000 Speaker 4: in and consent is very critical because you know, the 779 00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:17,719 Speaker 4: Saudis have you know, part of their border is is 780 00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:20,560 Speaker 4: a very large part of the Red Sea. But then 781 00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:23,680 Speaker 4: on the other hand, you've got this threat to international shipping. 782 00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:27,520 Speaker 4: And this is an incredibly uh old, you know concept 783 00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:30,920 Speaker 4: that that we have. You know, that that shipping and 784 00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:36,000 Speaker 4: international trade should be allowed to you know, to to 785 00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:40,000 Speaker 4: to go unobstructed when you're in neutral waters. And so 786 00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:42,920 Speaker 4: this is a concept and and a very old covenant 787 00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,960 Speaker 4: of of you know, international law and practice, even before 788 00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:48,400 Speaker 4: there was a United Nations and there was something that 789 00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:52,040 Speaker 4: we call international law. And if the United States and 790 00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:56,319 Speaker 4: allies and this culture do nothing, then you risk, you know, 791 00:43:56,440 --> 00:44:00,799 Speaker 4: abandoning this incredibly old precept that is so crucial to 792 00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:03,799 Speaker 4: global trade. And I think that that could set a 793 00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:05,480 Speaker 4: very very difficult. 794 00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:09,359 Speaker 10: Precedent well an energy trade specifically, I mean we're talking 795 00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:12,239 Speaker 10: about the ability of petroleum products to flow in and 796 00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:14,520 Speaker 10: out of the Middle East, Llen. So with that in mind, 797 00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:17,560 Speaker 10: do you think the energy market right now is properly 798 00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,480 Speaker 10: reflecting that risk? If you take a look at oil prices, 799 00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,400 Speaker 10: which sure are a little higher, but not incredibly elevated, 800 00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:25,480 Speaker 10: I think that they. 801 00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:29,719 Speaker 4: Are They're reflecting the risk at this moment, But I 802 00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:33,400 Speaker 4: don't think that perhaps energy that energy prices in the 803 00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:36,920 Speaker 4: future are are perhaps reflecting the fact that this could 804 00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:39,600 Speaker 4: cause an escalation to a greater conflict. Right when the 805 00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:44,120 Speaker 4: Gaza Israel issue got going, you know, back in October, 806 00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:47,560 Speaker 4: we saw elevated oil prices because everyone was concerned that 807 00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,800 Speaker 4: this was going to become this sort of whole, regional 808 00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:54,120 Speaker 4: wide conflagration. But you know, then there was a period 809 00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:56,040 Speaker 4: where it seemed clear that, you know, no one else 810 00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:57,440 Speaker 4: was going to get involved in this, this was going 811 00:44:57,480 --> 00:44:59,439 Speaker 4: to be a Hamas Israel thing. 812 00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:01,799 Speaker 5: Well, well now we're. 813 00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:04,839 Speaker 4: Actually looking at this coming up again. So while that 814 00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,640 Speaker 4: it seems like prices had kind of scaled back because 815 00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:10,759 Speaker 4: they said, Okay, this is no longer a risk. Now 816 00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:12,720 Speaker 4: we're looking at the fact that this could very well 817 00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:16,319 Speaker 4: be a risk, and because this is something that is 818 00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:22,680 Speaker 4: impacting trade and international shipping. That could be the thing 819 00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:26,400 Speaker 4: that actually forces the United States to really get involved 820 00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:31,919 Speaker 4: and causes it to something larger. So I wouldn't be surprised. Well, 821 00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:35,759 Speaker 4: hopefully traders and whatnot are watching this situation very carefully 822 00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:39,560 Speaker 4: because this is a different This is a different issue. 823 00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:41,720 Speaker 4: I think it's it's a whole different level than say 824 00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:44,840 Speaker 4: an Israel Hamas conflict. This is something that has the 825 00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,560 Speaker 4: potential to really become something much larger. 826 00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:51,399 Speaker 10: And finally, Ellen, we only have less than a minute left. 827 00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:54,680 Speaker 10: But Saudi Arabia also very much cares about prices and 828 00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:57,200 Speaker 10: they have been a leader in the OPEC plus cartel. 829 00:45:57,440 --> 00:45:59,919 Speaker 10: Just quickly. Is it a big deal that and Goal 830 00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:01,840 Speaker 10: left OPEC plus this week? 831 00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:05,239 Speaker 4: That's a really good question. It is a big deal, 832 00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:08,000 Speaker 4: but it's also not such a big deal because it's 833 00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:11,000 Speaker 4: something that you know, we kind of saw coming. You know, 834 00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:15,440 Speaker 4: we've had other nations leave before Indonesia left, Cutter is left. 835 00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:17,880 Speaker 4: I think that the issue is really this was not 836 00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:21,240 Speaker 4: over that much production. We're talking like seventy thousand barrels 837 00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:22,080 Speaker 4: a day of production. 838 00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:23,680 Speaker 3: But I do think it shows that. 839 00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:27,160 Speaker 4: Angola doesn't want to cut production at all, and they 840 00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:30,160 Speaker 4: really need to pump more, and they're just not willing 841 00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:33,600 Speaker 4: to even pretend to adhere to any kind of opek 842 00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,480 Speaker 4: production quotas. 843 00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:38,919 Speaker 10: All right, ellen Wald of the Atlantic Council, It's always 844 00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:40,839 Speaker 10: great to get your perspective. Thanks so much for joining 845 00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:42,000 Speaker 10: us in Happy holidays. 846 00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:46,960 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. 847 00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:50,160 Speaker 11: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 848 00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:52,640 Speaker 11: and anywhere else you get your podcasts, And you can 849 00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:55,680 Speaker 11: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one 850 00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:59,520 Speaker 11: pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com