Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Also joining us now on set is Lynn Martin. Of course,
Speaker 2: she is the Nicey Group president the New York Stock Exchange.
Speaker 2: You are so connected to the broader corporate community. What
Speaker 2: was this morning like wake? I mean, frankly, you had
Speaker 2: news will he won't hear? A lot of uncertainty up
Speaker 2: to this moment. What is everyone saying? Yeah?
Speaker 3: I mean we were watching it closely yesterday as you
Speaker 3: saw the market sell off, particularly in the afternoon, as
Speaker 3: it appeared that tarrifts were going to be imposed. But
Speaker 3: you never know until something is implemented if the rumors
Speaker 3: are true or if he would carry that out. I
Speaker 3: think it comes down to looking at the overall state
Speaker 3: of our US economy, and if you think of the
Speaker 3: president's core three objectives their border security, resolving geopolitical conflicts,
Speaker 3: and the the US economy, and I think what you're
Speaker 3: starting to see is the confluence of those three objectives
Speaker 3: start to come about in market.
Speaker 4: Is that going to result in slower growth? I mean,
Speaker 4: is we've been talking for weeks about part of the
Speaker 4: plan to get inflation down is lower aggregate demand. Right,
Speaker 4: you drive the economy into a recession, then you won't
Speaker 4: have a price problem. It does look like the market
Speaker 4: is worried about a growth scare.
Speaker 3: Well, I think if you look at the key indicators,
Speaker 3: so first just take two steps back. No one hipanic.
Speaker 3: There is volatility in markets. Markets go up and markets
Speaker 3: go down. And if you look at two of the
Speaker 3: key economic indicators, you look at the Dow and the
Speaker 3: S and P, those levels are still at above pre
Speaker 3: election levels. If I look at where both of those
Speaker 3: indices closed on election night, where they are today is
Speaker 3: still above. So your recall that there was a post
Speaker 3: election ephoria, if you will, and now years of the
Speaker 3: market may be recalibrating. But as the day progresses, as
Speaker 3: the weeks progress, there's no reason to assume that the
Speaker 3: markets are only going to move downwards. They could absolutely
Speaker 3: move upwards, particularly if we start to consider the revenue side.
Speaker 4: Right, we should point out that the levels we saw
Speaker 4: on the close of November fifth fifty seven eighty two
Speaker 4: on the S and P five hundred, so we're still
Speaker 4: above fifty eight hundred to your point, and the Nasdaq
Speaker 4: closed it two hundred twenty seven, so we're still above
Speaker 4: that as well. Well.
Speaker 1: To put that in percentage terms the S and P
Speaker 1: five hundred. It's still higher by about one point six
Speaker 1: percent on a total return basis since election day, but
Speaker 1: we know that it's come down mightily. There's a lot
Speaker 1: of volatility in this market as we really center our
Speaker 1: focus on tariffs. That is the topic for investors right now,
Speaker 1: and we were expecting to see a more robust IPO landscape,
Speaker 1: sort of marrying together the M and A landscape and
Speaker 1: the IPO landscape, but we haven't quite seen that yet. Lynn,
Speaker 1: during what the trickle down effect from tariffs, the volatility
Speaker 1: in the markets to your IPO business looks like.
Speaker 3: So I think it's important to consider that during this
Speaker 3: time of year, many pre public companies, many private companies,
Speaker 3: their financials go still, so they're in the process of
Speaker 3: restating their financials. We're still gearing up for an active
Speaker 3: Q two from an IPO perspective, which depending on how
Speaker 3: those deals go, we think will inform the way that, yes,
Speaker 3: the rest of the year will will progress. But we
Speaker 3: still have a very active pipeline and we're still working
Speaker 3: with a variety of companies to come out in the
Speaker 3: next few months.
Speaker 4: Are you seeing companies rush to market, do they want
Speaker 4: to get there quickly before maybe this trade war develops further.
Speaker 3: I think every company is considering where they are in
Speaker 3: their own evolution. Are they profitable, do they have a
Speaker 3: good story to tell? Have they used this time while
Speaker 3: they've been raising money and the private markets to refer
Speaker 3: the strategy to bring about a more deliberate P and
Speaker 3: L one that's more focused on a few strategic areas.
Speaker 3: So it's really down to a company to decide is
Speaker 3: it the right time to go public. The markets have
Speaker 3: been open for the last few years, which most people
Speaker 3: don't want to talk about. And if I look at
Speaker 3: the IPOs that occurred on the New York Stock Exchange
Speaker 3: last year in the secondary market, they grew fifty eight percent.
Speaker 3: So the market is there for companies to go when
Speaker 3: they're ready to go, when they have a good story
Speaker 3: to tell.
Speaker 2: So what about the vis you know you look at
Speaker 2: slowly starting to take hire. We're at a twenty three
Speaker 2: handle just this morning. They are not alarming levels by
Speaker 2: any means, but you can see there just you're to date,
Speaker 2: we are a lot higher than where we started. Is
Speaker 2: there a level in of the VIX that would start
Speaker 2: to stifle that pipeline that you're talking about.
Speaker 3: For Q it's generally around twenty, but recall that there
Speaker 3: have been some large companies that have gone in the
Speaker 3: last year two years where the VIX has been above twenty,
Speaker 3: well above twenty for sustained periods of time. Again, don't
Speaker 3: look at the data on just one day. Just take
Speaker 3: a breath and look at the long term trends of
Speaker 3: the market.
Speaker 1: That's a really interesting point on the vis it seems
Speaker 1: like the one year average is about sixteen, so we're
Speaker 1: not quite there, but certainly seeing a lot of volatility.
Speaker 1: This specific morning, I want to talk about somewhere where
Speaker 1: we've seen a bit of a bright spot for US exchanges,
Speaker 1: and that is companies switching their listings from abroad and
Speaker 1: coming into the US market. It's been a popular sort
Speaker 1: of trend that we've seen emerge over the past couple
Speaker 1: of years. Talk to us about what you see in
Speaker 1: that sort of pipeline, if you want to call it that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think what has shown over the
Speaker 3: last couple of years is the breath depth liquidity of
Speaker 3: the US markets. The US markets are the Enva of
Speaker 3: the world, and over the last few years they've really
Speaker 3: shown why. Given the growth in the US markets, we've
Speaker 3: welcomed a variety of companies who have transferred their listings
Speaker 3: out of domestic markets in Europe and the UK, specifically
Speaker 3: Flutter Croch, and they've seen a notable appreciation in their valuations.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, yeah, better liquidity, higher multiples you can command over
Speaker 1: in the US. Seems like a good deal. Lynn, We
Speaker 1: have to leave it there. It's so great to kick
Speaker 1: off our invest with you. That is Lynn martinstrab is
Speaker 1: the president of the NISI Group.