1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:06,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:06,920 --> 00:00:10,160 Speaker 2: Also joining us now on set is Lynn Martin. Of course, 3 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 2: she is the Nicey Group president the New York Stock Exchange. 4 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 2: You are so connected to the broader corporate community. What 5 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:21,279 Speaker 2: was this morning like wake? I mean, frankly, you had 6 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 2: news will he won't hear? A lot of uncertainty up 7 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 2: to this moment. What is everyone saying? Yeah? 8 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 3: I mean we were watching it closely yesterday as you 9 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 3: saw the market sell off, particularly in the afternoon, as 10 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 3: it appeared that tarrifts were going to be imposed. But 11 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 3: you never know until something is implemented if the rumors 12 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 3: are true or if he would carry that out. I 13 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 3: think it comes down to looking at the overall state 14 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 3: of our US economy, and if you think of the 15 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 3: president's core three objectives their border security, resolving geopolitical conflicts, 16 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 3: and the the US economy, and I think what you're 17 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:07,480 Speaker 3: starting to see is the confluence of those three objectives 18 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:10,559 Speaker 3: start to come about in market. 19 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 4: Is that going to result in slower growth? I mean, 20 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 4: is we've been talking for weeks about part of the 21 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 4: plan to get inflation down is lower aggregate demand. Right, 22 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 4: you drive the economy into a recession, then you won't 23 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 4: have a price problem. It does look like the market 24 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 4: is worried about a growth scare. 25 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 3: Well, I think if you look at the key indicators, 26 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:33,760 Speaker 3: so first just take two steps back. No one hipanic. 27 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 3: There is volatility in markets. Markets go up and markets 28 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 3: go down. And if you look at two of the 29 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 3: key economic indicators, you look at the Dow and the 30 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 3: S and P, those levels are still at above pre 31 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 3: election levels. If I look at where both of those 32 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 3: indices closed on election night, where they are today is 33 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 3: still above. So your recall that there was a post 34 00:01:56,000 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 3: election ephoria, if you will, and now years of the 35 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 3: market may be recalibrating. But as the day progresses, as 36 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 3: the weeks progress, there's no reason to assume that the 37 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 3: markets are only going to move downwards. They could absolutely 38 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 3: move upwards, particularly if we start to consider the revenue side. 39 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 4: Right, we should point out that the levels we saw 40 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,839 Speaker 4: on the close of November fifth fifty seven eighty two 41 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 4: on the S and P five hundred, so we're still 42 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 4: above fifty eight hundred to your point, and the Nasdaq 43 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 4: closed it two hundred twenty seven, so we're still above 44 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 4: that as well. Well. 45 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 1: To put that in percentage terms the S and P 46 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,119 Speaker 1: five hundred. It's still higher by about one point six 47 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 1: percent on a total return basis since election day, but 48 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,239 Speaker 1: we know that it's come down mightily. There's a lot 49 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 1: of volatility in this market as we really center our 50 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 1: focus on tariffs. That is the topic for investors right now, 51 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: and we were expecting to see a more robust IPO landscape, 52 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: sort of marrying together the M and A landscape and 53 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:59,640 Speaker 1: the IPO landscape, but we haven't quite seen that yet. Lynn, 54 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: during what the trickle down effect from tariffs, the volatility 55 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 1: in the markets to your IPO business looks like. 56 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 3: So I think it's important to consider that during this 57 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 3: time of year, many pre public companies, many private companies, 58 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 3: their financials go still, so they're in the process of 59 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 3: restating their financials. We're still gearing up for an active 60 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 3: Q two from an IPO perspective, which depending on how 61 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:30,079 Speaker 3: those deals go, we think will inform the way that, yes, 62 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 3: the rest of the year will will progress. But we 63 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 3: still have a very active pipeline and we're still working 64 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 3: with a variety of companies to come out in the 65 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 3: next few months. 66 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 4: Are you seeing companies rush to market, do they want 67 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 4: to get there quickly before maybe this trade war develops further. 68 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 3: I think every company is considering where they are in 69 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 3: their own evolution. Are they profitable, do they have a 70 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 3: good story to tell? Have they used this time while 71 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 3: they've been raising money and the private markets to refer 72 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 3: the strategy to bring about a more deliberate P and 73 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 3: L one that's more focused on a few strategic areas. 74 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 3: So it's really down to a company to decide is 75 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 3: it the right time to go public. The markets have 76 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 3: been open for the last few years, which most people 77 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 3: don't want to talk about. And if I look at 78 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 3: the IPOs that occurred on the New York Stock Exchange 79 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 3: last year in the secondary market, they grew fifty eight percent. 80 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 3: So the market is there for companies to go when 81 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 3: they're ready to go, when they have a good story 82 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 3: to tell. 83 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 2: So what about the vis you know you look at 84 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 2: slowly starting to take hire. We're at a twenty three 85 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 2: handle just this morning. They are not alarming levels by 86 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 2: any means, but you can see there just you're to date, 87 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 2: we are a lot higher than where we started. Is 88 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 2: there a level in of the VIX that would start 89 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 2: to stifle that pipeline that you're talking about. 90 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 3: For Q it's generally around twenty, but recall that there 91 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:00,839 Speaker 3: have been some large companies that have gone in the 92 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,920 Speaker 3: last year two years where the VIX has been above twenty, 93 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 3: well above twenty for sustained periods of time. Again, don't 94 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 3: look at the data on just one day. Just take 95 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 3: a breath and look at the long term trends of 96 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 3: the market. 97 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 1: That's a really interesting point on the vis it seems 98 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,839 Speaker 1: like the one year average is about sixteen, so we're 99 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:23,479 Speaker 1: not quite there, but certainly seeing a lot of volatility. 100 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: This specific morning, I want to talk about somewhere where 101 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: we've seen a bit of a bright spot for US exchanges, 102 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 1: and that is companies switching their listings from abroad and 103 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 1: coming into the US market. It's been a popular sort 104 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: of trend that we've seen emerge over the past couple 105 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 1: of years. Talk to us about what you see in 106 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: that sort of pipeline, if you want to call it that. 107 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think what has shown over the 108 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 3: last couple of years is the breath depth liquidity of 109 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 3: the US markets. The US markets are the Enva of 110 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 3: the world, and over the last few years they've really 111 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 3: shown why. Given the growth in the US markets, we've 112 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 3: welcomed a variety of companies who have transferred their listings 113 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 3: out of domestic markets in Europe and the UK, specifically 114 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 3: Flutter Croch, and they've seen a notable appreciation in their valuations. 115 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 1: Absolutely, yeah, better liquidity, higher multiples you can command over 116 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 1: in the US. Seems like a good deal. Lynn, We 117 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 1: have to leave it there. It's so great to kick 118 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 1: off our invest with you. That is Lynn martinstrab is 119 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 1: the president of the NISI Group.