WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 16 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 37) 0:00:06.680 --> 0:00:09.760 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:12.720 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:12.760 --> 0:00:15.400 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:17.840 It is time to break down some of our favorite 0:00:17.840 --> 0:00:21.240 and least favorite bets for the week sixteen NFL Slate. 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:23.639 With me to talk about it all is Sean Green, 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:27.360 the co creator and co host of the Sports Gambling Podcast. 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:30.920 You can find him on Twitter at Sean T. Green. Shawn, 0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:32.800 thanks for coming back on the show. How you doing, 0:00:33.000 --> 0:00:33.760 I'm doing awesome. 0:00:33.880 --> 0:00:36.159 Yeah, thanks for having me on. Really looking forward to 0:00:36.479 --> 0:00:39.880 the bonus Saturday games. I know my wife is thrilled 0:00:39.880 --> 0:00:43.040 to find out that nine hours of football on Saturday 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:47.120 and Sunday right before the holidays. So yeah, getting stoned here. 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:49.360 It's the best. And it was a little annoying that 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:52.120 they didn't have any last weekend because the only Saturday, 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:54.480 the only college football game was Army Navy, right. 0:00:54.440 --> 0:00:57.360 Yeah, and I mean, you know there was eight total 0:00:57.400 --> 0:01:00.560 passes in that game. I mean I watched it, but yeah, 0:01:00.680 --> 0:01:02.840 it would have been nice if they started Saturday games 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:03.560 last week. 0:01:03.680 --> 0:01:05.360 I know, I feel like they used to him maybe 0:01:05.440 --> 0:01:08.120 making that up but anyway, yes, I love it. Three games. 0:01:08.120 --> 0:01:11.080 They're gonna be great and we're gonna get into all 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:12.959 of it. But before we do, we have to do 0:01:13.000 --> 0:01:16.559 the full Monty where we give everything that happened last week, 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:19.400 and it was not that pretty. I missed on all 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:22.280 three of my best bets, which included the Jaguars Raiders 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:25.280 over forty five, the Eagles and the Redskins under thirty 0:01:25.360 --> 0:01:27.480 nine and the Browns laying three did the Cardinals. I 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:30.000 did hit on my top prop, which was Chris Carson 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:32.080 over one hundred and twenty five rushing yards and that 0:01:32.080 --> 0:01:34.440 was at plus two ten, So hopefully we made up 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:36.640 for it there. As for our guest Andrew Kayley, he 0:01:36.720 --> 0:01:39.319 hit on the Panther Seahawks over forty eight and a half, 0:01:39.680 --> 0:01:42.480 but he lost in terrible fashion with the Eagles laying 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:45.280 four and a half to the Redskins. He also lost 0:01:45.319 --> 0:01:48.120 on his top prop, Jarvis Landry over forty six and 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:50.840 a half yards, and he also lost on the Seahawks, 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:53.720 laying six and a half to the Panthers. So in 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:56.120 that one, you know, Andrew really could have had a 0:01:56.200 --> 0:01:58.120 nice week last week. He got a little unlucky there 0:01:58.120 --> 0:01:58.680 at the end, he. 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:01.520 Had the Redskins they're getting four and a half, because 0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:04.240 that's oh my gosh, you're right some touchdown. 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:08.000 Yeah, yeah, yeah, actually no, you know what, I completely 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:10.720 have it backwards. You're absolutely right, he hit on the 0:02:10.720 --> 0:02:12.560 Eagles laing four and a half. I had as the Redskins, 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:14.160 but now that I'm looking at my notes, he had 0:02:14.200 --> 0:02:17.320 the Eagles. So he got totally lucky with that one. Yeah, 0:02:18.320 --> 0:02:20.800 not like that. Yes, obviously if you weren't paying dungeon. 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:23.120 I by the way, I didn't have it on the 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:24.840 on one of my best bets, but you know, I'm 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:27.239 bettingpros dot com a lot, you know, over one hundred 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:30.359 you know, quote unquote experts we put in our picks 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:33.919 each week, and I had the Redskins getting six before 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:36.720 the line moved down. So that was a real bummer 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:39.079 for me because I've put several units on that one. 0:02:39.120 --> 0:02:41.160 But there were a bunch of crazy endings like that, 0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:43.400 you know, I'm sure people with the money line of course, 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:46.400 with the forty nine ers over the Falcons and everything 0:02:46.440 --> 0:02:48.239 like that. It was just it was a nutty week. 0:02:48.280 --> 0:02:51.079 So hopefully this week will be a little a little tighter. 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:54.959 But anyway, we are going to start as we always do, 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:57.480 with pick six, where Sean and I are each gonna 0:02:57.480 --> 0:03:00.440 give three of our best bets, either against this or 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:02.400 on the over under. So Sean, you can start us off. 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:03.560 What's your number one pick? 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:06.600 My number one pick. I'm going to the Bucks game 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:08.919 squaring off against the Texans. Give me the Tampa Bay 0:03:08.960 --> 0:03:13.359 Bucks plus three. I know they are without Mike Evans 0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:15.440 and Godwin, which really kind of killed me in a fantasy, 0:03:15.480 --> 0:03:19.080 but James Winston Man, he is just throwing the ball 0:03:19.240 --> 0:03:22.720 all around. I love kind of the offense I'm seeing 0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:25.320 out of this team. And you know, when it comes 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:28.040 to betting the Texans, whether you're on or off. To me, 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:30.919 the easiest way to handicap them is does the opposing 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:34.000 team have a pass rush? Now, this Tampa Bay Bucks team, 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:37.720 the defense isn't amazing, but Shaq Barrett sixteen and a 0:03:37.760 --> 0:03:40.320 half sacks, I think that's enough to carry them to 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:43.680 get some pressure to rattle this Texans team. And it's 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:46.560 also a great look ahead spot for the Texans. I 0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:48.720 know they need this game, but I could definitely see 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:51.200 them looking ahead to the final matchup against the Titans 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:55.440 at home in Houston and a non conference road game. 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:57.920 I always like going against those kind of teams, and 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:01.360 Jamis and the Bucks really feel like they're playing for something. 0:04:01.640 --> 0:04:04.200 They got paramut involved, they got the tight ends going 0:04:04.520 --> 0:04:07.680 last week. Granted Detroit's defense not as good, but I 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:10.560 think at home on the short week, catching three points 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:12.480 give it the Tampa Bay Bucks. 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:15.760 Yeah, I'm a little nervous about it. I don't really 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:17.120 know what to do with this game. I talked about 0:04:17.120 --> 0:04:18.880 it on Monday, you know on Mondays. You've been on 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:20.720 the Monday Show a couple of times already. We do 0:04:20.839 --> 0:04:22.520 like we look at every game on the slate and 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:25.360 we give our initial impressions that when the line, you know, 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:27.880 had moved significantly. I believe it was the Texans laying 0:04:27.920 --> 0:04:29.880 one originally and it had moved to a settled where 0:04:29.880 --> 0:04:32.640 it is now to three. And he was sort of 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:35.000 echoing what you've been saying in that. You know, when 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:37.560 the public looks at this game from Afar, you're like, well, 0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:39.800 you know, the Texans, they beat the Titans. They could 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:42.240 have won that game, you know, going away a little bit, 0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:43.839 you know they turned the ball over a couple of times, 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:46.600 and you know they have the chance now to really 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:49.840 put this away, and you think that they're just gonna 0:04:50.000 --> 0:04:51.960 maybe stomp all over the Bucks, but in the end, 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:54.160 that's not usually the way it works. It's sort of 0:04:54.200 --> 0:04:57.599 the classic let down and look ahead game here that 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:00.160 we've got. Because they've got the Titans on two the 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:02.440 last three weeks here, and they're going to face them 0:05:02.640 --> 0:05:05.840 in week seventeen. I would ordinarily be with you, and 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:09.120 the Bucks have been one of sort of the sharp's 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:12.160 favorite teams right over the last several weeks. They've been 0:05:12.160 --> 0:05:14.080 all over them. They've been capitalizing on the fact that 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:17.640 they've been undervalued in the market. Really though, I mean 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:22.120 Brashad Perriman is the number one wide receiver at this point. 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:25.120 And don't even forget man like Scottie Miller, he's not 0:05:25.240 --> 0:05:27.600 a bad player, and he's out for this game. It's 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:30.240 gonna be Justin Watson, who I actually like as sort 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:32.000 of you know, a project and everything like that. But 0:05:32.480 --> 0:05:35.120 don't you get a little bit worried about the fact that, 0:05:35.200 --> 0:05:37.120 you know, as good as James has been playing and 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:39.960 as much as he's gonna throw and all of that, that, man, 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:41.719 I don't know if they even have the weapons to 0:05:41.720 --> 0:05:43.560 be able to put up the points necessary to cover 0:05:43.600 --> 0:05:44.040 that spread. 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:47.599 Yeah, I mean, certainly that's a concern, but again, he's 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:51.240 kind you know, Winston coming off back to back games 0:05:51.279 --> 0:05:53.440 where he's thrown for over four hundred and fifty yards 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:56.520 and that's the first time that's happened in NFL history. 0:05:56.560 --> 0:05:59.120 So that's a bit. I mean, that's an anomaly, and 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:02.640 maybe there's some regrets rush in there and losing the targets. Yeah, 0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:04.640 but I just like what I've seen out of this 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:07.280 Bucks team. There's always this sneaky couple teams at the 0:06:07.440 --> 0:06:10.160 end that are eliminated from playoff contention, but they're trying 0:06:10.160 --> 0:06:12.400 to get some momentum to roll it into next year. 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:15.560 Kind of What else really got me going was the 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:19.720 amount of public action on the Texans. Seems like everyone 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:22.680 is hammering the Texans, laying the three as a road favorite. 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:25.400 So that was kind of the deciding factor in selecting 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:26.000 Tampa Bay. 0:06:26.200 --> 0:06:29.839 Yeah, fading the public is almost always a winning strategy. Again, 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:31.640 I don't hate it, It's just not a game where 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:33.919 I feel all that comfortable either way. I would like 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:36.600 the Bucks ordinarily. Just the lack of weapons makes me 0:06:36.640 --> 0:06:38.240 a little nervous, So it's probably a game I'm gonna 0:06:38.240 --> 0:06:40.160 stay away from. I am gonna get involved on a 0:06:40.200 --> 0:06:42.200 game which you may stay away from because it is 0:06:42.240 --> 0:06:46.039 not pretty, and that is the Jets getting three from 0:06:46.080 --> 0:06:48.600 the Steelers. So I want this to get to three 0:06:48.640 --> 0:06:50.200 and a half, all right. The viig is a little 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:52.360 inflated right now in the three, so I'm just hoping 0:06:52.400 --> 0:06:55.280 that eventually goes although there is right now our contenenc 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:57.200 outs are three, but there's a two and a half 0:06:57.320 --> 0:06:59.920 out there from bet MGM, actually our sponsor, so I'm 0:07:00.120 --> 0:07:01.520 not sure it's gonna get to three and a half. 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:04.000 But even at three, I'm gonna take it. This is 0:07:04.040 --> 0:07:06.960 gonna sound sort of silly, but I was a tiny 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:09.960 bit impressed with what I saw from the Jets last 0:07:10.040 --> 0:07:13.280 week against the Ravens. Forget about the defense, all right, 0:07:13.360 --> 0:07:16.720 It's almost impossible to stop Lamar Jackson whenever it's decent condictions. 0:07:17.000 --> 0:07:19.240 It's harder to stop him on a Thursday when the 0:07:19.240 --> 0:07:22.200 defense has little time to recover and prepare, and it's 0:07:22.240 --> 0:07:25.880 even harder when you're down Quinn Williams and Jamal Adams. 0:07:26.200 --> 0:07:28.880 But the offense I kind of expected to be completely 0:07:29.080 --> 0:07:31.280 shut down by the Ravens, who have been playing much 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:34.120 better defensively over the last several weeks, and they really weren't. 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:36.640 They moved the ball well. Sam Darnold dealt with not 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:39.240 having a lot of time that he had the critical turnovers, 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:41.280 of course, but they easily could have put up a 0:07:41.320 --> 0:07:43.920 few more points and Le'Veon Bell ran for a season 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:46.360 high in yards. But I don't want to I'm gonna 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:48.000 be careful here. I don't want to cast the spursions 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:50.800 on anyone, okay, but to me as a Jets fan 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:54.160 and just somebody watching, he looks completely uninterested in playing football, 0:07:54.360 --> 0:07:56.640 particularly in that game, right. I mean, there were a 0:07:56.680 --> 0:07:59.160 bunch of players where he's clearly the first, maybe the 0:07:59.200 --> 0:08:02.240 second read on the screen pass, and he's legitimately just 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:05.080 kind of like walking or slowly jogging. You see Darnald 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:06.800 look at him, and you're like, oh, all right, I've 0:08:06.800 --> 0:08:08.800 guess I gotta go to my next read because he's 0:08:08.880 --> 0:08:10.720 just not even putting in heavy air. That's not gonna 0:08:10.720 --> 0:08:12.720 be the case this week. Okay, he's playing his old team, 0:08:12.920 --> 0:08:14.760 the Steelers. I don't mean the revenge game where he's 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:16.840 gonna have a huge game, but I think that he's 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:19.239 one of still the more talented backs in the league. 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:22.320 He's not always motivated, and I just think he's going 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:24.400 to be motivated. So I think, at least unlike those 0:08:24.440 --> 0:08:26.920 types of plays, he's gonna run hard and try to 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:29.480 get open that the Steelers they have an elite defense. 0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:31.840 But I do think that playing the Ravens, as I mentioned, 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:34.040 whose defense has also been great, is gonna help Darnld 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:36.480 deal with that. I really liked seeing him get jameson 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:39.079 Crowder back involved, so he could, you know, need him 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:42.080 on these shorter passes, and defensively for the Jets, you 0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:44.400 know they can stop the run. They obviously last weekend 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:47.120 was terrible. But on Thursday, I mean, but I mean, 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:49.800 who cares. They're gonna get Jamal Adams back here. I mean, 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:51.720 I'm surprised. I kind of thought he'd be shut down, 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:54.120 but there was word out today he is going to play. 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:57.280 Hopefully Williams is gonna play too, some more conventional offense 0:08:57.360 --> 0:08:59.720 for them. They're coming off that mini BI and if 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:01.480 they are able to shut down the run, you can 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:04.160 shut down James Connor, then you're left with Duck Hodges. 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:06.880 And even if Smith Schuster comes back here, it sounds 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:09.080 like he's also trending in the right direction. It's just 0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:11.679 not the type of game to fear. I mean, you 0:09:11.679 --> 0:09:14.280 saw last week against Buffalo the cornerbacks for the Jets 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:17.120 have actually played a little better in the end. I 0:09:17.120 --> 0:09:19.920 don't just think the Steelers are all that good. They 0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:21.920 have a good defense, but their offense is really terrible. 0:09:21.960 --> 0:09:24.040 At a very tough game on Sunday night, They've got 0:09:24.080 --> 0:09:25.880 no faith in their offense. It reminds me a little 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:28.440 bit of like the Bears before Trubisky got a little 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:30.480 bit hot. Like if the Jets come out and they 0:09:30.480 --> 0:09:32.520 can score on their opening drive and they get to 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:34.679 a lead, particularly touch on, I feel like you could 0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:36.680 just look at the Steelers and see that entire team 0:09:36.760 --> 0:09:39.000 wilt be like, all right, we gave up a touchdown now, 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:39.720 so right. 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:40.720 So yeah, I'll. 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:42.880 Probably drop a little bit on the money line too here, 0:09:43.240 --> 0:09:44.920 But with the three, if I can get three and 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:46.679 a half, I'm waiting for it. I'm begging for it. 0:09:46.720 --> 0:09:48.640 But even with the three, I'm gonna take it here. 0:09:48.679 --> 0:09:51.679 I think the Jets actually win this game at home 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:52.640 on Sunday. 0:09:52.880 --> 0:09:55.040 Yeah. I mean, you make a compelling case for the Jets, 0:09:55.200 --> 0:09:56.640 and that's sometimes hard to do. 0:09:56.760 --> 0:09:59.560 But you're right, I as a fan, it's nearly impossible 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:01.280 to do. Leave me, I've been beaten down. 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:04.520 I know. I know their offense kind of was clicking 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:07.200 there at times because I actually tease them up to 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:10.680 twenty two and so I actually hit on that leg 0:10:10.720 --> 0:10:13.000 of the teas. So yeah, I know what you're saying, like, 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:15.840 and it did feel like Darnold left a couple plays 0:10:15.880 --> 0:10:19.240 out there. Maybe he converts on some of those at home. 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:22.960 I think you know, one of the things that if 0:10:22.960 --> 0:10:24.959 you're back in the Steelers you have to be concerned about, 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:27.640 is Duck Hodges as a road favorite. Are we really 0:10:27.720 --> 0:10:30.559 ready to dub him as a three point road favorite. 0:10:30.559 --> 0:10:33.280 We've seen this before where these young qbs come in, 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:35.160 they're coached up, they don't have a lot of film 0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:38.560 on them. They succeed early for two, three, maybe even 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:40.600 four games, and then the kind of the film gets 0:10:40.640 --> 0:10:42.440 out on them, they know how to play them, and 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:44.480 then it kind of falls apart. That certainly could be 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:47.640 a situation here. Yeah. And as far as Le'Veon Bell 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:50.160 not being interested in football, I mean, what would give 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:52.280 you that idea? The fact that he was out on 0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:55.200 a game day that same evening where he didn't play 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:57.080 because he was sick, and he bowled at two fifty 0:10:57.120 --> 0:10:58.080 one and then. 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:01.120 It's a two fifty one. I mean, he's got some 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:02.360 effort going on there. 0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:04.559 Yeah, that's true. And then they asked him about it 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:06.080 and he goes, well, I think it's impressive that I 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:09.839 bowled two fifty one with the flu. That is the 0:11:09.920 --> 0:11:11.200 san to the New York media. 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:14.640 Yeah, I totally agree with that. Again, you know, I've 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:16.960 watched the jetskin but on Sunday, you know what we 0:11:17.000 --> 0:11:18.839 do with Mike teg Lear and I do a fancy 0:11:18.880 --> 0:11:22.080 podcast on Sunday night. So I'm watching trying to watch 0:11:22.160 --> 0:11:24.000 all the games. I'm not just watching the Jets, my 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:26.120 home team. This was on Thursday night, one of the 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:28.640 few games that I could watch without any other distractions, 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:32.080 And oh my god, just how little he seemed to 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:35.319 really be putting in that effort. Again, there were plays 0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:38.320 you looked Darnold legitimately looked at him rolling up for 0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:40.320 a screen pass as if that's the first read. And 0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:43.320 there's a guy in his vicinity and he's walking like 0:11:43.400 --> 0:11:45.840 he just had nothing. So look, both sides are going 0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:47.520 to be motivated to be fair the Steelers are going 0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:49.320 to be up for this game to try to stop Belle. 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:51.360 I'm sure, but really, in the end, they need to 0:11:51.440 --> 0:11:54.080 win to get into the playoffs. Here, I get you 0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:56.319 mentioned it with Duck Hodges. I do not trust them, 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:58.280 you know, I think the book is out on him. 0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:00.400 I think the Jets are going to take away the 0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:03.000 run as is their strength. I think they're gonna put 0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:05.760 it on Hodges. And you know, Donald's probably gonna be 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:07.960 running for his life. But you know, his quote unquote 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:10.920 success against the Ravens on Thursday made me feel a 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:13.600 little more comfortable. All right, Look, we have completely reached 0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:15.360 our quota. I'm talking about the Jets right now. So 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:16.840 let's move on to your second pick. What do you have? 0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:21.600 Give me the Green Bay Packers in Minnesota catching five 0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:24.920 and a half points. Now, this Green Bay team, it's 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:27.400 it's weird. They're kind of like the NFC version of 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:30.440 the Patriots, where they keep winning games. But when you 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:32.920 watch them, you're like, are they good? They're not that good? 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:34.920 Why are they get But they're winning games, so they're 0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:37.640 they're hard to fade. I'm riding them catching five and 0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:40.000 a half points. I mean, the one Staton trend that 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:42.400 jumps out of you is Kirk Cousins. He's oh and 0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:46.000 eight on Monday Night football, oh and eight. And then 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:47.720 you look at some of the injuries that the Vikings 0:12:47.720 --> 0:12:50.120 are dealing with. It doesn't look like Dalvin Cook is 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:53.280 gonna play Madison. He's banged up. It looks like it's 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:56.480 gonna be down to boone. And you've seen the success 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:59.400 for Kirk Cousins has come off the play action, right, 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:02.120 they get Dalvin Cook going, they get some screen games 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:04.679 going and or you know, the screen game going, and 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:06.600 then they kind of do play action off that to 0:13:06.720 --> 0:13:09.920 kind of play to his strength. I think Green Bay's 0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:12.680 in a good position here. They're highly motivated. I mean 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:15.000 this is again they're they're right in the mix to 0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:18.400 you know, they could even be They're gonna run here 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:21.280 at the one of the two seed Aaron Rodgers. While 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:23.800 he's not putting up amazing numbers, they're just winning games. 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:25.760 I'm a little bit worried about the second half because 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:29.199 that is kind of been a struggle for the Packers. 0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:32.200 But I think they show up. I think they show 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:34.960 up in Minnesota and there really is something to this 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:37.640 monkey on Kirk Cousin's back and O and eight Monday 0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:39.360 Night Football and be and O in eight. You know, 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:42.160 just not succeeding in prime time, I think is a 0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:45.560 real thing. And I just love the Packers getting this 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:46.200 many points. 0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:48.640 It's a lot of points. It was at four and 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:51.640 a half, so the money obviously came in here on 0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:54.760 the Vikings to push it. It's a weird game for me, man, 0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:57.480 I mean you mentioned about the running backs. Everything I'm 0:13:57.520 --> 0:14:00.360 reading sounds like both Cook and Madison are going missed 0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:03.160 this game. And you know, uh, you know my guy, 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:05.960 you know, Bobby Sylvester, who I work with over at 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:08.319 Fantasy Pros. He loves Mike Boone. It's like one of 0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:11.480 his favorite players. I think he's talented too. But he's 0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:14.440 not Cook and he's not Madison. So it certainly is 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:16.440 going to be something. You know, the Cousins saying, look, 0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:18.760 he played well on I think it was Monday Night 0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:20.400 Football against the Seahawks. So I don't want to I 0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:22.480 don't want to knock the guy too much. He's played 0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:25.400 on some bad teams, but I get it. The thing is, 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:28.600 I think in the end, the Vikings probably have almost 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:30.680 nothing to play for here is I mean if the 0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:33.680 Ram I believe, if the Rams lose on Saturday, and 0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:37.240 they're favored to lose against the forty nine Ers, then 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:40.240 the Rams I believe, are eliminated from playoff contention. If 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:42.240 I have that right, Yeah, And if so right, and 0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:46.720 if so, the Vikings are in and they could technically 0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:48.560 win the division. But I think the Packers have to 0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:51.240 lose both their last two games. I believe I. 0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:53.120 Should be wrong, So they have to. I'm pretty sure 0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:55.480 they have to beat the Packers obviously, and then and 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:57.240 then they have to win and Packers have to lose 0:14:57.280 --> 0:15:00.360 the following one. And the Packers have just consistently done 0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:03.120 well in the division forty nine and thirty against the 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:05.920 spreading divisional game since two thousand and six. Now, you 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:07.680 know that's going way back. But I do think there 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:09.720 is kind of a mental edge where a lot of 0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:12.960 teams go into Minnesota, they play in that spaceship like Dome, 0:15:13.280 --> 0:15:15.800 they get kind of intimidated that the crowd noise gets 0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:18.280 to them. I don't see that rattling this Packers team. 0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:21.080 Yeah, I think that's fair. Again, this is a game 0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:23.720 where sort of I'm you know, you make good points. 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:26.400 I like the analysis I don't go on the other side, 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:28.600 I'm not you know, five and a half is a 0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:33.520 crazy spread, like yeah, right, correct, yeah, no, I completely agree. 0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:35.240 I think the Vikings are going to win. I just 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:36.920 don't know whether or not they're going to cover, so 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:39.520 I think it's fair. But yeah, you know you mentioned it. 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:41.800 Packards are just kind of bugging me, man, because they're 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:44.400 not that good. They don't play that well, they don't 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:46.800 have a killer instinct when they get out ahead, but 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:50.080 they somehow keep winning it they are motivated. Again. I 0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:52.400 talked on Monday about this with Dave Cochin, which is 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:54.360 sort of like, you know, the motivation of seeding. He 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:56.640 feels like it's not really a big issue when teams 0:15:56.640 --> 0:15:58.920 playing stuff like that. That's fine, but you know, regardless, it's 0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:01.280 a divisional game, you know. And the one thing I 0:16:01.280 --> 0:16:03.480 think that you can think of a second divisional game 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:05.920 when teams like this have played each other obviously, you know, 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:08.000 for several years. Still got Aaron Rodgers and you had 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:10.920 cousins last year. They know each other pretty well. I 0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:12.720 think it's going to be a game that's probably going 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:14.680 to play close. So with that getting five and a 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:16.440 half points, I really I have no issue with it 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:19.640 other than the fact that, man, the Packers make me 0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:21.400 mad because I feel like I don't really have a 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:23.080 good read on them. I'm going to go with an 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:27.320 over under for my second pick, and that's the exciting 0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:30.840 the Bengals and the Dolphins over forty six and a half, 0:16:30.880 --> 0:16:33.760 mainly because I feel like we need some reason to 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:36.440 watch this game at this point, so I gotta go on. 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:38.720 The Bengals probably have the top seed in the draft 0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:40.960 locked up, so they can just go forward and not 0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:43.720 have to worry about making sure they lose to lock 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:46.760 up that pick. Joe Mixon has been running incredibly well. 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:49.200 He did pop up on the INDO Report today. Yeah 0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:52.640 I'm reading, Yeah, it sounds minor. I don't like that 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:55.800 on a Thursday, but you know, obviously, you know, wait 0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:57.280 and see what that is, because I would not be 0:16:57.320 --> 0:16:59.000 going over if Mixing is out, because he's sort of 0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:01.440 the keys A Hunt thirty six yards against the Patriots 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:04.080 last week, more than seventy five rushing yards in five 0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:06.439 of the bengals last six games. The Dolphins run defense 0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:09.960 is absolutely terrible. They're allowing nearly one hundred and forty 0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:11.919