1 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:09,760 Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 2 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:12,720 Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 3 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. 4 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: It is time to break down some of our favorite 5 00:00:17,840 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 1: and least favorite bets for the week sixteen NFL Slate. 6 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:23,639 Speaker 1: With me to talk about it all is Sean Green, 7 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: the co creator and co host of the Sports Gambling Podcast. 8 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 1: You can find him on Twitter at Sean T. Green. Shawn, 9 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: thanks for coming back on the show. How you doing, 10 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: I'm doing awesome. 11 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,159 Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks for having me on. Really looking forward to 12 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,880 Speaker 2: the bonus Saturday games. I know my wife is thrilled 13 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 2: to find out that nine hours of football on Saturday 14 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 2: and Sunday right before the holidays. So yeah, getting stoned here. 15 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: It's the best. And it was a little annoying that 16 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 1: they didn't have any last weekend because the only Saturday, 17 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 1: the only college football game was Army Navy, right. 18 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean, you know there was eight total 19 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 2: passes in that game. I mean I watched it, but yeah, 20 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 2: it would have been nice if they started Saturday games 21 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 2: last week. 22 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 1: I know, I feel like they used to him maybe 23 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: making that up but anyway, yes, I love it. Three games. 24 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 1: They're gonna be great and we're gonna get into all 25 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 1: of it. But before we do, we have to do 26 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,559 Speaker 1: the full Monty where we give everything that happened last week, 27 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 1: and it was not that pretty. I missed on all 28 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 1: three of my best bets, which included the Jaguars Raiders 29 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 1: over forty five, the Eagles and the Redskins under thirty 30 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 1: nine and the Browns laying three did the Cardinals. I 31 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 1: did hit on my top prop, which was Chris Carson 32 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 1: over one hundred and twenty five rushing yards and that 33 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: was at plus two ten, So hopefully we made up 34 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 1: for it there. As for our guest Andrew Kayley, he 35 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 1: hit on the Panther Seahawks over forty eight and a half, 36 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 1: but he lost in terrible fashion with the Eagles laying 37 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: four and a half to the Redskins. He also lost 38 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: on his top prop, Jarvis Landry over forty six and 39 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: a half yards, and he also lost on the Seahawks, 40 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: laying six and a half to the Panthers. So in 41 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: that one, you know, Andrew really could have had a 42 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 1: nice week last week. He got a little unlucky there 43 00:01:58,120 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: at the end, he. 44 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 2: Had the Redskins they're getting four and a half, because 45 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 2: that's oh my gosh, you're right some touchdown. 46 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, actually no, you know what, I completely 47 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: have it backwards. You're absolutely right, he hit on the 48 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 1: Eagles laing four and a half. I had as the Redskins, 49 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: but now that I'm looking at my notes, he had 50 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 1: the Eagles. So he got totally lucky with that one. Yeah, 51 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 1: not like that. Yes, obviously if you weren't paying dungeon. 52 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 1: I by the way, I didn't have it on the 53 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 1: on one of my best bets, but you know, I'm 54 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:27,239 Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com a lot, you know, over one hundred 55 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 1: you know, quote unquote experts we put in our picks 56 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,919 Speaker 1: each week, and I had the Redskins getting six before 57 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 1: the line moved down. So that was a real bummer 58 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:39,079 Speaker 1: for me because I've put several units on that one. 59 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: But there were a bunch of crazy endings like that, 60 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 1: you know, I'm sure people with the money line of course, 61 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: with the forty nine ers over the Falcons and everything 62 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:48,239 Speaker 1: like that. It was just it was a nutty week. 63 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,079 Speaker 1: So hopefully this week will be a little a little tighter. 64 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,959 Speaker 1: But anyway, we are going to start as we always do, 65 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: with pick six, where Sean and I are each gonna 66 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 1: give three of our best bets, either against this or 67 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: on the over under. So Sean, you can start us off. 68 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: What's your number one pick? 69 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 2: My number one pick. I'm going to the Bucks game 70 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:08,919 Speaker 2: squaring off against the Texans. Give me the Tampa Bay 71 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:13,359 Speaker 2: Bucks plus three. I know they are without Mike Evans 72 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 2: and Godwin, which really kind of killed me in a fantasy, 73 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:19,080 Speaker 2: but James Winston Man, he is just throwing the ball 74 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 2: all around. I love kind of the offense I'm seeing 75 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 2: out of this team. And you know, when it comes 76 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 2: to betting the Texans, whether you're on or off. To me, 77 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:30,919 Speaker 2: the easiest way to handicap them is does the opposing 78 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 2: team have a pass rush? Now, this Tampa Bay Bucks team, 79 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 2: the defense isn't amazing, but Shaq Barrett sixteen and a 80 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 2: half sacks, I think that's enough to carry them to 81 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 2: get some pressure to rattle this Texans team. And it's 82 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 2: also a great look ahead spot for the Texans. I 83 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 2: know they need this game, but I could definitely see 84 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 2: them looking ahead to the final matchup against the Titans 85 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 2: at home in Houston and a non conference road game. 86 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 2: I always like going against those kind of teams, and 87 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 2: Jamis and the Bucks really feel like they're playing for something. 88 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 2: They got paramut involved, they got the tight ends going 89 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 2: last week. Granted Detroit's defense not as good, but I 90 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 2: think at home on the short week, catching three points 91 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 2: give it the Tampa Bay Bucks. 92 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm a little nervous about it. I don't really 93 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: know what to do with this game. I talked about 94 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 1: it on Monday, you know on Mondays. You've been on 95 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 1: the Monday Show a couple of times already. We do 96 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: like we look at every game on the slate and 97 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,360 Speaker 1: we give our initial impressions that when the line, you know, 98 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 1: had moved significantly. I believe it was the Texans laying 99 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 1: one originally and it had moved to a settled where 100 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: it is now to three. And he was sort of 101 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 1: echoing what you've been saying in that. You know, when 102 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: the public looks at this game from Afar, you're like, well, 103 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: you know, the Texans, they beat the Titans. They could 104 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 1: have won that game, you know, going away a little bit, 105 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 1: you know they turned the ball over a couple of times, 106 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 1: and you know they have the chance now to really 107 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,840 Speaker 1: put this away, and you think that they're just gonna 108 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 1: maybe stomp all over the Bucks, but in the end, 109 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 1: that's not usually the way it works. It's sort of 110 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 1: the classic let down and look ahead game here that 111 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 1: we've got. Because they've got the Titans on two the 112 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 1: last three weeks here, and they're going to face them 113 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:05,840 Speaker 1: in week seventeen. I would ordinarily be with you, and 114 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 1: the Bucks have been one of sort of the sharp's 115 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,160 Speaker 1: favorite teams right over the last several weeks. They've been 116 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: all over them. They've been capitalizing on the fact that 117 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: they've been undervalued in the market. Really though, I mean 118 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: Brashad Perriman is the number one wide receiver at this point. 119 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 1: And don't even forget man like Scottie Miller, he's not 120 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 1: a bad player, and he's out for this game. It's 121 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: gonna be Justin Watson, who I actually like as sort 122 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 1: of you know, a project and everything like that. But 123 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 1: don't you get a little bit worried about the fact that, 124 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 1: you know, as good as James has been playing and 125 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 1: as much as he's gonna throw and all of that, that, man, 126 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:41,719 Speaker 1: I don't know if they even have the weapons to 127 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 1: be able to put up the points necessary to cover 128 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:44,040 Speaker 1: that spread. 129 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:47,599 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, certainly that's a concern, but again, he's 130 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 2: kind you know, Winston coming off back to back games 131 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 2: where he's thrown for over four hundred and fifty yards 132 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 2: and that's the first time that's happened in NFL history. 133 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 2: So that's a bit. I mean, that's an anomaly, and 134 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 2: maybe there's some regrets rush in there and losing the targets. Yeah, 135 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 2: but I just like what I've seen out of this 136 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:07,280 Speaker 2: Bucks team. There's always this sneaky couple teams at the 137 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 2: end that are eliminated from playoff contention, but they're trying 138 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 2: to get some momentum to roll it into next year. 139 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 2: Kind of What else really got me going was the 140 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,720 Speaker 2: amount of public action on the Texans. Seems like everyone 141 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 2: is hammering the Texans, laying the three as a road favorite. 142 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 2: So that was kind of the deciding factor in selecting 143 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 2: Tampa Bay. 144 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 1: Yeah, fading the public is almost always a winning strategy. Again, 145 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: I don't hate it, It's just not a game where 146 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 1: I feel all that comfortable either way. I would like 147 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:36,600 Speaker 1: the Bucks ordinarily. Just the lack of weapons makes me 148 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 1: a little nervous, So it's probably a game I'm gonna 149 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:40,160 Speaker 1: stay away from. I am gonna get involved on a 150 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 1: game which you may stay away from because it is 151 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:46,039 Speaker 1: not pretty, and that is the Jets getting three from 152 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 1: the Steelers. So I want this to get to three 153 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 1: and a half, all right. The viig is a little 154 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 1: inflated right now in the three, so I'm just hoping 155 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 1: that eventually goes although there is right now our contenenc 156 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: outs are three, but there's a two and a half 157 00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: out there from bet MGM, actually our sponsor, so I'm 158 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: not sure it's gonna get to three and a half. 159 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 1: But even at three, I'm gonna take it. This is 160 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 1: gonna sound sort of silly, but I was a tiny 161 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 1: bit impressed with what I saw from the Jets last 162 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: week against the Ravens. Forget about the defense, all right, 163 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: It's almost impossible to stop Lamar Jackson whenever it's decent condictions. 164 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 1: It's harder to stop him on a Thursday when the 165 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: defense has little time to recover and prepare, and it's 166 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 1: even harder when you're down Quinn Williams and Jamal Adams. 167 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: But the offense I kind of expected to be completely 168 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: shut down by the Ravens, who have been playing much 169 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 1: better defensively over the last several weeks, and they really weren't. 170 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 1: They moved the ball well. Sam Darnold dealt with not 171 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: having a lot of time that he had the critical turnovers, 172 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 1: of course, but they easily could have put up a 173 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 1: few more points and Le'Veon Bell ran for a season 174 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 1: high in yards. But I don't want to I'm gonna 175 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 1: be careful here. I don't want to cast the spursions 176 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 1: on anyone, okay, but to me as a Jets fan 177 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: and just somebody watching, he looks completely uninterested in playing football, 178 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: particularly in that game, right. I mean, there were a 179 00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 1: bunch of players where he's clearly the first, maybe the 180 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 1: second read on the screen pass, and he's legitimately just 181 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: kind of like walking or slowly jogging. You see Darnald 182 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 1: look at him, and you're like, oh, all right, I've 183 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 1: guess I gotta go to my next read because he's 184 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 1: just not even putting in heavy air. That's not gonna 185 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 1: be the case this week. Okay, he's playing his old team, 186 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: the Steelers. I don't mean the revenge game where he's 187 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 1: gonna have a huge game, but I think that he's 188 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,239 Speaker 1: one of still the more talented backs in the league. 189 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 1: He's not always motivated, and I just think he's going 190 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:24,400 Speaker 1: to be motivated. So I think, at least unlike those 191 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 1: types of plays, he's gonna run hard and try to 192 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 1: get open that the Steelers they have an elite defense. 193 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: But I do think that playing the Ravens, as I mentioned, 194 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 1: whose defense has also been great, is gonna help Darnld 195 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 1: deal with that. I really liked seeing him get jameson 196 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:39,079 Speaker 1: Crowder back involved, so he could, you know, need him 197 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: on these shorter passes, and defensively for the Jets, you 198 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 1: know they can stop the run. They obviously last weekend 199 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 1: was terrible. But on Thursday, I mean, but I mean, 200 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 1: who cares. They're gonna get Jamal Adams back here. I mean, 201 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:51,720 Speaker 1: I'm surprised. I kind of thought he'd be shut down, 202 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 1: but there was word out today he is going to play. 203 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: Hopefully Williams is gonna play too, some more conventional offense 204 00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 1: for them. They're coming off that mini BI and if 205 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 1: they are able to shut down the run, you can 206 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: shut down James Connor, then you're left with Duck Hodges. 207 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: And even if Smith Schuster comes back here, it sounds 208 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 1: like he's also trending in the right direction. It's just 209 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:11,679 Speaker 1: not the type of game to fear. I mean, you 210 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 1: saw last week against Buffalo the cornerbacks for the Jets 211 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 1: have actually played a little better in the end. I 212 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 1: don't just think the Steelers are all that good. They 213 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: have a good defense, but their offense is really terrible. 214 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 1: At a very tough game on Sunday night, They've got 215 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: no faith in their offense. It reminds me a little 216 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:28,440 Speaker 1: bit of like the Bears before Trubisky got a little 217 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: bit hot. Like if the Jets come out and they 218 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: can score on their opening drive and they get to 219 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:34,679 Speaker 1: a lead, particularly touch on, I feel like you could 220 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:36,680 Speaker 1: just look at the Steelers and see that entire team 221 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 1: wilt be like, all right, we gave up a touchdown now, 222 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 1: so right. 223 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll. 224 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: Probably drop a little bit on the money line too here, 225 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: But with the three, if I can get three and 226 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:46,679 Speaker 1: a half, I'm waiting for it. I'm begging for it. 227 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: But even with the three, I'm gonna take it here. 228 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: I think the Jets actually win this game at home 229 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 1: on Sunday. 230 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, you make a compelling case for the Jets, 231 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 2: and that's sometimes hard to do. 232 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 1: But you're right, I as a fan, it's nearly impossible 233 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 1: to do. Leave me, I've been beaten down. 234 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 2: I know. I know their offense kind of was clicking 235 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 2: there at times because I actually tease them up to 236 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,680 Speaker 2: twenty two and so I actually hit on that leg 237 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,000 Speaker 2: of the teas. So yeah, I know what you're saying, like, 238 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 2: and it did feel like Darnold left a couple plays 239 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 2: out there. Maybe he converts on some of those at home. 240 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 2: I think you know, one of the things that if 241 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:24,959 Speaker 2: you're back in the Steelers you have to be concerned about, 242 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 2: is Duck Hodges as a road favorite. Are we really 243 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:30,559 Speaker 2: ready to dub him as a three point road favorite. 244 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 2: We've seen this before where these young qbs come in, 245 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 2: they're coached up, they don't have a lot of film 246 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:38,560 Speaker 2: on them. They succeed early for two, three, maybe even 247 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 2: four games, and then the kind of the film gets 248 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 2: out on them, they know how to play them, and 249 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 2: then it kind of falls apart. That certainly could be 250 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 2: a situation here. Yeah. And as far as Le'Veon Bell 251 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 2: not being interested in football, I mean, what would give 252 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 2: you that idea? The fact that he was out on 253 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,200 Speaker 2: a game day that same evening where he didn't play 254 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:57,080 Speaker 2: because he was sick, and he bowled at two fifty 255 00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 2: one and then. 256 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 1: It's a two fifty one. I mean, he's got some 257 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 1: effort going on there. 258 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:04,559 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true. And then they asked him about it 259 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 2: and he goes, well, I think it's impressive that I 260 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:09,839 Speaker 2: bowled two fifty one with the flu. That is the 261 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 2: san to the New York media. 262 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree with that. Again, you know, I've 263 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 1: watched the jetskin but on Sunday, you know what we 264 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:18,839 Speaker 1: do with Mike teg Lear and I do a fancy 265 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 1: podcast on Sunday night. So I'm watching trying to watch 266 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 1: all the games. I'm not just watching the Jets, my 267 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 1: home team. This was on Thursday night, one of the 268 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: few games that I could watch without any other distractions, 269 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 1: And oh my god, just how little he seemed to 270 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:35,319 Speaker 1: really be putting in that effort. Again, there were plays 271 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 1: you looked Darnold legitimately looked at him rolling up for 272 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:40,320 Speaker 1: a screen pass as if that's the first read. And 273 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 1: there's a guy in his vicinity and he's walking like 274 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 1: he just had nothing. So look, both sides are going 275 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 1: to be motivated to be fair the Steelers are going 276 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 1: to be up for this game to try to stop Belle. 277 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 1: I'm sure, but really, in the end, they need to 278 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 1: win to get into the playoffs. Here, I get you 279 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:56,319 Speaker 1: mentioned it with Duck Hodges. I do not trust them, 280 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 1: you know, I think the book is out on him. 281 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: I think the Jets are going to take away the 282 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: run as is their strength. I think they're gonna put 283 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 1: it on Hodges. And you know, Donald's probably gonna be 284 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:07,960 Speaker 1: running for his life. But you know, his quote unquote 285 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: success against the Ravens on Thursday made me feel a 286 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 1: little more comfortable. All right, Look, we have completely reached 287 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 1: our quota. I'm talking about the Jets right now. So 288 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 1: let's move on to your second pick. What do you have? 289 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 2: Give me the Green Bay Packers in Minnesota catching five 290 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:24,920 Speaker 2: and a half points. Now, this Green Bay team, it's 291 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 2: it's weird. They're kind of like the NFC version of 292 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 2: the Patriots, where they keep winning games. But when you 293 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 2: watch them, you're like, are they good? They're not that good? 294 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 2: Why are they get But they're winning games, so they're 295 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 2: they're hard to fade. I'm riding them catching five and 296 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 2: a half points. I mean, the one Staton trend that 297 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 2: jumps out of you is Kirk Cousins. He's oh and 298 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 2: eight on Monday Night football, oh and eight. And then 299 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 2: you look at some of the injuries that the Vikings 300 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 2: are dealing with. It doesn't look like Dalvin Cook is 301 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 2: gonna play Madison. He's banged up. It looks like it's 302 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:56,480 Speaker 2: gonna be down to boone. And you've seen the success 303 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 2: for Kirk Cousins has come off the play action, right, 304 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 2: they get Dalvin Cook going, they get some screen games 305 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,679 Speaker 2: going and or you know, the screen game going, and 306 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 2: then they kind of do play action off that to 307 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 2: kind of play to his strength. I think Green Bay's 308 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,680 Speaker 2: in a good position here. They're highly motivated. I mean 309 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 2: this is again they're they're right in the mix to 310 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 2: you know, they could even be They're gonna run here 311 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 2: at the one of the two seed Aaron Rodgers. While 312 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 2: he's not putting up amazing numbers, they're just winning games. 313 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 2: I'm a little bit worried about the second half because 314 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:29,199 Speaker 2: that is kind of been a struggle for the Packers. 315 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:32,200 Speaker 2: But I think they show up. I think they show 316 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:34,960 Speaker 2: up in Minnesota and there really is something to this 317 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 2: monkey on Kirk Cousin's back and O and eight Monday 318 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 2: Night Football and be and O in eight. You know, 319 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 2: just not succeeding in prime time, I think is a 320 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 2: real thing. And I just love the Packers getting this 321 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 2: many points. 322 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 1: It's a lot of points. It was at four and 323 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:51,640 Speaker 1: a half, so the money obviously came in here on 324 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: the Vikings to push it. It's a weird game for me, man, 325 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 1: I mean you mentioned about the running backs. Everything I'm 326 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 1: reading sounds like both Cook and Madison are going missed 327 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 1: this game. And you know, uh, you know my guy, 328 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,960 Speaker 1: you know, Bobby Sylvester, who I work with over at 329 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:08,319 Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros. He loves Mike Boone. It's like one of 330 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: his favorite players. I think he's talented too. But he's 331 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 1: not Cook and he's not Madison. So it certainly is 332 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 1: going to be something. You know, the Cousins saying, look, 333 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 1: he played well on I think it was Monday Night 334 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 1: Football against the Seahawks. So I don't want to I 335 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 1: don't want to knock the guy too much. He's played 336 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: on some bad teams, but I get it. The thing is, 337 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 1: I think in the end, the Vikings probably have almost 338 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: nothing to play for here is I mean if the 339 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 1: Ram I believe, if the Rams lose on Saturday, and 340 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 1: they're favored to lose against the forty nine Ers, then 341 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 1: the Rams I believe, are eliminated from playoff contention. If 342 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: I have that right, Yeah, And if so right, and 343 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 1: if so, the Vikings are in and they could technically 344 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 1: win the division. But I think the Packers have to 345 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 1: lose both their last two games. I believe I. 346 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 2: Should be wrong, So they have to. I'm pretty sure 347 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 2: they have to beat the Packers obviously, and then and 348 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 2: then they have to win and Packers have to lose 349 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 2: the following one. And the Packers have just consistently done 350 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 2: well in the division forty nine and thirty against the 351 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 2: spreading divisional game since two thousand and six. Now, you 352 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 2: know that's going way back. But I do think there 353 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 2: is kind of a mental edge where a lot of 354 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 2: teams go into Minnesota, they play in that spaceship like Dome, 355 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 2: they get kind of intimidated that the crowd noise gets 356 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 2: to them. I don't see that rattling this Packers team. 357 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. Again, this is a game 358 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 1: where sort of I'm you know, you make good points. 359 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 1: I like the analysis I don't go on the other side, 360 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: I'm not you know, five and a half is a 361 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 1: crazy spread, like yeah, right, correct, yeah, no, I completely agree. 362 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: I think the Vikings are going to win. I just 363 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 1: don't know whether or not they're going to cover, so 364 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 1: I think it's fair. But yeah, you know you mentioned it. 365 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 1: Packards are just kind of bugging me, man, because they're 366 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: not that good. They don't play that well, they don't 367 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 1: have a killer instinct when they get out ahead, but 368 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: they somehow keep winning it they are motivated. Again. I 369 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 1: talked on Monday about this with Dave Cochin, which is 370 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 1: sort of like, you know, the motivation of seeding. He 371 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 1: feels like it's not really a big issue when teams 372 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 1: playing stuff like that. That's fine, but you know, regardless, it's 373 00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 1: a divisional game, you know. And the one thing I 374 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 1: think that you can think of a second divisional game 375 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: when teams like this have played each other obviously, you know, 376 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 1: for several years. Still got Aaron Rodgers and you had 377 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 1: cousins last year. They know each other pretty well. I 378 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 1: think it's going to be a game that's probably going 379 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 1: to play close. So with that getting five and a 380 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 1: half points, I really I have no issue with it 381 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:19,640 Speaker 1: other than the fact that, man, the Packers make me 382 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 1: mad because I feel like I don't really have a 383 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 1: good read on them. I'm going to go with an 384 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 1: over under for my second pick, and that's the exciting 385 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 1: the Bengals and the Dolphins over forty six and a half, 386 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 1: mainly because I feel like we need some reason to 387 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 1: watch this game at this point, so I gotta go on. 388 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 1: The Bengals probably have the top seed in the draft 389 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: locked up, so they can just go forward and not 390 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: have to worry about making sure they lose to lock 391 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 1: up that pick. Joe Mixon has been running incredibly well. 392 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 1: He did pop up on the INDO Report today. Yeah 393 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 1: I'm reading, Yeah, it sounds minor. I don't like that 394 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: on a Thursday, but you know, obviously, you know, wait 395 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 1: and see what that is, because I would not be 396 00:16:57,320 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 1: going over if Mixing is out, because he's sort of 397 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 1: the keys A Hunt thirty six yards against the Patriots 398 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 1: last week, more than seventy five rushing yards in five 399 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,439 Speaker 1: of the bengals last six games. The Dolphins run defense 400 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 1: is absolutely terrible. They're allowing nearly one hundred and forty 401 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:11,919 Speaker 1: one yards per game on the ground, so I think 402 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:14,120 Speaker 1: the Bengals are easily going to be able to march 403 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 1: up and down the field. The Dolphins like a true, 404 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 1: you know, really good cornerback now that Dave and Howard 405 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:21,359 Speaker 1: is out, so I expect Tyler Boyd to kind of 406 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,399 Speaker 1: get back on track here. And I think against the 407 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,639 Speaker 1: soft defense like this, this is their last chance to 408 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:27,359 Speaker 1: get a win. Zach Taylor's going to pull out some 409 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 1: creative plays, and after watching the Giants sort of march 410 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:32,280 Speaker 1: up and down the field last week, there's a little 411 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 1: reason for me to think that the Bengals are going 412 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 1: to struggle to put up points. And on the flip side, 413 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: I think the Dolphins are gonna focus more in their 414 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 1: pass particularly with Devonte Parker. Bengals are absolutely dreadful against 415 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 1: the pass. They allow an opposing quarterback rating of ninety six, 416 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:48,360 Speaker 1: a ton of big plays that fits perfectly into what 417 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:52,160 Speaker 1: Devonte Parker can do. They're oddly good at preventing touchdowns 418 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 1: in the red zone. They have like a really good 419 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 1: red zone defense, which makes me a little bit nervous 420 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: when I'm looking at the over But either way, this 421 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:00,640 Speaker 1: just sort of feels like a game where both offenses 422 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 1: are going to be able to put up points. There's 423 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 1: a chance of at least one pick six, if not 424 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,199 Speaker 1: multiple pick six is given who these quarterbacks are. So 425 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 1: I think the scoring gets up here to push it 426 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 1: past forty six, I'll take the over on forty six 427 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: and a half. 428 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I hadn't really broken down the total 429 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 2: in this game, but I really love that angle. This 430 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,440 Speaker 2: Dolphins team. I mean, you look at Fitzpatrick. The guy 431 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 2: is just scrappy. He's like running, he's getting knocked around, 432 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,919 Speaker 2: and their defense has just been I mean a complete sieve. 433 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:32,439 Speaker 2: The Jets game was forty three points, but other than that, 434 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 2: you look at like their past games fifty six points 435 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 2: total against the against the Giants, sixty eight against the Eagles, 436 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:42,879 Speaker 2: sixty five against the Browns. Heck, they even got the 437 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 2: Bills fifty seven total points. Like this, This Miami team 438 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 2: they've been I mean, they probably only had one under 439 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:50,679 Speaker 2: there in those past games. 440 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,959 Speaker 1: And don't forget about you know that game against the Jets, 441 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:56,600 Speaker 1: they were in the red zone every time. They had 442 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 1: seven field goals, so they easily could have popped that over. 443 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,680 Speaker 1: So yeah, this just strikes me as an over team. 444 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:04,159 Speaker 1: I have no idea who's gonna win the game. I 445 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:06,639 Speaker 1: do not have appeal for that spread whatsoever, but I 446 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 1: feel like getting a little action on it is good, 447 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 1: and I feel like the over is probably the play. 448 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to your third pick. What 449 00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:12,359 Speaker 1: do you have? 450 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,159 Speaker 2: I like your angle. Hey, I'm gonna be watching this game. Well, 451 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:16,960 Speaker 2: I gotta figure out some way to bet on it 452 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:17,920 Speaker 2: without losing my mind. 453 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 1: Right, let's go over. Let's root for some pick sixes 454 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 1: and scores. 455 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:24,639 Speaker 2: Absolutely well, I'll be losing my mind if the Philadelphia 456 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 2: Eagles do not win this game. A Sunday big Eagles fan, 457 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:31,439 Speaker 2: but I'm gonna try and put away my all my 458 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,640 Speaker 2: biases to my best ability in handicap this game. But yeah, 459 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,680 Speaker 2: I like the Eagles getting one and a half two 460 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,080 Speaker 2: points wherever it ends up closing. I like them as 461 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 2: a dog. I like them as a home dog. The 462 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,160 Speaker 2: thing here with this Eagles team, everyone looks at their 463 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:47,000 Speaker 2: defense and they think, oh my god, their defense has 464 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 2: been horrific. And while you could certainly say that about them, 465 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 2: I mean again, they let up thirty seven points to 466 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,639 Speaker 2: the Dolphins. Their defense is actually being quietly kind of 467 00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 2: decent at home, which is probably the best compliment I 468 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:00,959 Speaker 2: can give to their defense, but you look at their 469 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 2: last five games, they're only averaging fourteen point two points 470 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:05,360 Speaker 2: per game. If you want to look at a game 471 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 2: where they let up more than seventeen points, you gotta 472 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:09,959 Speaker 2: go all the way back to September twenty seventh against 473 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 2: the Detroit Lions, and this Eagles offense. You watch, or 474 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 2: I mean watching those last two games, you can see 475 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 2: Wentz has got a bit of a rhythm with these 476 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 2: new guys. And I don't know if it was Alshon 477 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 2: Jeffrey being hurt or Nelson Aguilar being hurt, whatever it 478 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 2: was bringing in Greg Ward. And again I was touting 479 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,200 Speaker 2: him left and right that you must start Greg Ward 480 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 2: and your DraftKings lineup. He's only three thousand dollars. I'm 481 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 2: telling you people, he's gonna have a big game. He 482 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,680 Speaker 2: puts up nineteen point one Fantasy points. Makes me look 483 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 2: like a genius. But it's just obvious, like the guy 484 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,360 Speaker 2: is making a play on the ball. Boston Scott's coming 485 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 2: in there, He's making plays on the ball. And as 486 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 2: much as as a fan as I've critiqued Doug Peterson, 487 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 2: I think rightly so Doug Peterson seems to get these 488 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 2: guys up for must win games. You saw it last 489 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 2: year towards the end that granted, some of that was 490 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 2: Nick Foles, but even these last two games essentially must 491 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,880 Speaker 2: win games, Gwentz has come up in the clutch there, 492 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,639 Speaker 2: driving him down the fourth quarter. And then finally dak Prescott. 493 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 2: Dakota Prescott himself, he's banged up. I mean this MRI 494 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,600 Speaker 2: shoulder injury. The Eagles were the spread was up to three, 495 00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 2: and then I think this shoulder injury has is responsible 496 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 2: for this line movement down back to one and a half, 497 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,159 Speaker 2: and there's got to I think there's something to that. 498 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,359 Speaker 2: He's got an ac joint issue. He's also got an 499 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 2: issue with his hand there. It's like, I don't know 500 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,479 Speaker 2: how they're describing it, but like a near broken finger. 501 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 2: I think that could be a real issue for them. 502 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 2: So I think the I think the injuries. I think 503 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,119 Speaker 2: the mojo that the Eagles have and the fact that 504 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,399 Speaker 2: the Dallas Cowboys are just openly interviewing other coaches and 505 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,679 Speaker 2: appears in Dallas during the biggest week of their season, 506 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,160 Speaker 2: I think I think that's going to have some impact 507 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:49,680 Speaker 2: on the team. 508 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,439 Speaker 1: First of all, I love getting fantasy involved, because I 509 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 1: also am a fantasy analyst, So kudos to you on 510 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: that one. Yeah, I'll be honest, if not for the 511 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:04,439 Speaker 1: Prescott shoulder injury, I would beyond the Cowboys. I just 512 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 1: you know, for me, man, I don't know, dude, like 513 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,919 Speaker 1: I get that the Eagles. Kudos to the Eagles for 514 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 1: continuing to somehow pull out these games where you know 515 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 1: they have nothing going on at wide receiver. I mean 516 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 1: it's legitimately, Greg Ward. I mean, are think a Whiteside 517 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 1: is banged up to you? 518 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 2: I know, I mean, yeah, he just showed up with 519 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 2: a foot injury. It's crazy to think Carson Wentz last week. 520 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,480 Speaker 2: The receivers they had on their active fifty three day 521 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 2: roster had a combined twenty catches in their career to 522 00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:37,160 Speaker 2: start the game. So yeah, there's two ways to look 523 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,199 Speaker 2: at it. It's one way to look at it as 524 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 2: an optimist is oh my god, they're coming from behind, 525 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,360 Speaker 2: they're coming up. They're winning these most games in clutch situations. 526 00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:47,399 Speaker 2: The other way is, oh my god, they let the 527 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 2: Redskins and the Giants get onto these big leads. I'm 528 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,159 Speaker 2: gonna look at it at the other way, and I 529 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,720 Speaker 2: think the And that's to my angle of like the 530 00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 2: defense at home, and the defense looked horrible in the 531 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:01,479 Speaker 2: first half of the Giants, but they shut him out 532 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 2: in the second half and seventeen points. I mean, if 533 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:06,360 Speaker 2: the Eagles can't put up twenty one to beat him, 534 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 2: then they certainly don't deserve to win. But I think 535 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:10,679 Speaker 2: that's kind of the heart of my angle is that 536 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,679 Speaker 2: for whatever reason, this defense, as hot and cold as 537 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 2: has been, they do seem to show up at home. 538 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,239 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think offensively, you're probably gonna see a 539 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 1: whole lot of zach Ertz as you see generally speaking anyway, 540 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:23,879 Speaker 1: because I think with the tight end you can attack 541 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 1: the Cowboys a little bit. I'm still nervous about it. 542 00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:27,879 Speaker 1: I need to do some more reading. If Prescott is 543 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 1: limited and again his injury, you know, the finger stuff 544 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 1: he's been playing through now, I think for two weeks, 545 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 1: so I think he's okay. The shoulder thing sounds legitimate, man, 546 00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 1: whatever it is. It's not like a poo poo oh. 547 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 1: Look he's popping up like this is legitimate. It sounds 548 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 1: relatively serious. So it's something where I'm a little nervous 549 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 1: about it. If I felt confident in Prescott. I don't know, man, 550 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 1: I think I'd go with the Cowboys because I you know, again, 551 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 1: I take you mentioned it goes one of two ways, 552 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,280 Speaker 1: and I probably look at it the other end, which is, 553 00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 1: oh my god, you could have easily lost to both 554 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,119 Speaker 1: the Giants the red Skins, and they. 555 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 2: Did lose to the Dolphins. So again, it certainly a 556 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 2: good case there yeah to be made. 557 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 1: But again it's a divisional game. You never know, and 558 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:12,880 Speaker 1: you know, putting your faith in Jason Garrett is rarely 559 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:13,920 Speaker 1: a winning proposition. 560 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, Jason Garrett as a road favorite in a must 561 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,200 Speaker 2: win game, that's also pretty scary. 562 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:20,199 Speaker 1: I think for the most part, I'm just avoiding all 563 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,119 Speaker 1: the games that you picked because I'm terrified of them. Instead, 564 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,920 Speaker 1: I will pick great matchups like the Jets getting three, 565 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 1: and I'll go with another underdog for my third pick, 566 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,680 Speaker 1: and that's the Cardinals getting nine and a half from 567 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:33,720 Speaker 1: the Seahawks. So the Seahawks are eleven and three, right, 568 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 1: they could easily be end up the number one seed 569 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 1: in the NFC. They have a point differential of plus 570 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,880 Speaker 1: twenty six that is the same as the Rams, slightly 571 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,919 Speaker 1: more than the Bucks, slightly more than the Chargers and 572 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,639 Speaker 1: slightly more than the Eagles. They won by more than 573 00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:54,200 Speaker 1: eight points one time this season, one time in their 574 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:57,440 Speaker 1: eleven wins out That one time was against these very 575 00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,640 Speaker 1: same Cardinals, So that is something I don't really see 576 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,080 Speaker 1: the game coming out like that. Nine and a half. 577 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,240 Speaker 1: It's a pretty big number, Okay. I mean, and I 578 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:08,440 Speaker 1: faded the Cardinals last week against the Browns. That was 579 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 1: a mistake obviously, and it's not like I'm buying the 580 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:12,919 Speaker 1: Cardinals suddenly, but I do think they can move the 581 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: ball here against the Seahawks. As he saw last week, 582 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,399 Speaker 1: Kyler Murray does pretty well when he doesn't have to 583 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,159 Speaker 1: deal with pressure, and the Seahawks rarely get pressure on 584 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 1: the opposing quarterback. They're one of the worst in the 585 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 1: league at that and that's just not the way they 586 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,600 Speaker 1: play defense at this point. And their defense, by the way, 587 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 1: it's pretty decimated at this point. We know Caandre Diggs 588 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,160 Speaker 1: is already going to be out, Jadavion Clowney is almost 589 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:32,840 Speaker 1: certainly going. 590 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:33,200 Speaker 2: To be out. 591 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,360 Speaker 1: They're dealing with injuries to Zigianza and Bobby Wagner. Shaquille 592 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,359 Speaker 1: Griffin Kendricks are all banged up at this point. So 593 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 1: it's unclear how healthy they're gonna be. And we saw 594 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,639 Speaker 1: Kenyan Drake get going last week, Kyler Murray ran a tongue, 595 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:47,920 Speaker 1: and the Seahawks they allow more than four and a 596 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,120 Speaker 1: half yards per carry, So I think the Cardinals are 597 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 1: going to be able to put up some points here 598 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,480 Speaker 1: and sold the Seahawks. Obviously, the Cardinals defense, particularly the 599 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 1: pass defense, is just terrible. It's basically the worst in 600 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 1: the league. And the Seahawks passing it's not crazy explosive though, right, 601 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,879 Speaker 1: I mean, Russell Wilson's amazing, but they just lost Josh Gordon. 602 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:07,600 Speaker 1: It's not like they're going to go out there and 603 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,159 Speaker 1: immediately like drive right down the field. They'll be able 604 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 1: to run the ball as well. The Cardinals run defense 605 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 1: isn't good neithers they are going to be points scored 606 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,639 Speaker 1: in this game. But I mean we saw last week, right, 607 00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,880 Speaker 1: they dominated the Panthers, totally dominated, and then they were 608 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:20,879 Speaker 1: just kind of took their foot off the gas and 609 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 1: they allowed the Panthers to cover. Depending on where you 610 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:24,159 Speaker 1: got the number, I got it at five and a 611 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 1: half at one place, which was great, But I had 612 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:27,879 Speaker 1: at six and a half, which I felt confident in 613 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,679 Speaker 1: as well, and I lost that one. The Cardinals have 614 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,920 Speaker 1: covered in the majority of their games. That's usually because 615 00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,359 Speaker 1: they're getting the big number. And in the end, what 616 00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:38,399 Speaker 1: it really comes down to is this game really doesn't 617 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 1: mean very much to Seattle. I mean, if they beat 618 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 1: the forty nine ers next week, I think they win 619 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,639 Speaker 1: the division regardless of what the forty nine ers do 620 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,399 Speaker 1: against the Rams or what they do against the Cardinals. 621 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,919 Speaker 1: And yeah, they're seating, and you know they're going for 622 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,920 Speaker 1: the bye with the Packers and the Saints. And again 623 00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 1: though Dave Cochin really hammered down the point that you know, 624 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,919 Speaker 1: when you look historically, seating does not seem to be 625 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,080 Speaker 1: all that much of a motive factor. When you're making 626 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,280 Speaker 1: the playoffs or you're winning the division, that means much more. 627 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,280 Speaker 1: Going for seeding, even when it comes to a buy, 628 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 1: doesn't usually have that big of an impact. So I 629 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 1: think the Seahawks are gonna in this game try to 630 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,920 Speaker 1: be a little careful with their injured players. I don't 631 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 1: think they're gonna push everything, and even if they jump 632 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 1: out to a lead, I think they can take their 633 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:17,560 Speaker 1: foot off the gas. Nine and a half. It's a 634 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:19,560 Speaker 1: big number. So I think the Cardinals at the very 635 00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:20,640 Speaker 1: least can back door cover. 636 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think you brought up a great point 637 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,600 Speaker 2: that the Seahawks aren't really based in their offense around 638 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 2: explosive plays like they love just hammering the rock, they 639 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 2: love running the ball, they love getting Chris Carson involved, 640 00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 2: you know, especially now that they lost for Sead Penny. 641 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:40,440 Speaker 2: And again, the only thing that scared me from taking 642 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,679 Speaker 2: the Cardinals because I'm also on the Cardinals on the 643 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 2: Sports Gambling podcast. It's just that Seattle has a history 644 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:51,360 Speaker 2: of kind of like little brother in the Arizona Cardinals. Sure, 645 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 2: in the same way that the Rams always play the 646 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 2: Seahawks tough regardless of the year. It seems like Seattle 647 00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 2: always just kind of has Arizona's number. But the point, 648 00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:04,440 Speaker 2: the diferential, the motivation, there's just so much going for Arizona, 649 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 2: and especially at that giant number, Arizona has been sneaky 650 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:09,960 Speaker 2: with the back door at times this season. So yeah, 651 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:10,920 Speaker 2: I'm with you there. 652 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, anytime you get to a number like that, where're 653 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,160 Speaker 1: approaching double digits, and always I'm like, Okay, I need 654 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 1: to find a reason not to take this because I 655 00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,359 Speaker 1: always lean towards the well. I mean, come on, and 656 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,560 Speaker 1: you look, it doesn't always. The Jets obviously didn't cover 657 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:26,000 Speaker 1: that giant number from last week, so you never know. 658 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 1: But with double vision, I think. 659 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 2: A division dogs. You know. Yeah, that's a strong trend. 660 00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:33,399 Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, it's it's tough for me to go against 661 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:35,480 Speaker 1: the Cardinals here. All right, So let's recap. You're gonna 662 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 1: take the Bucks getting three from the Texans, the Packers 663 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 1: getting five and a half. I surprise the number has 664 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,480 Speaker 1: gotten to that high again. But Packer's getting five and 665 00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:44,479 Speaker 1: a half from the Vikings, and the Eagles getting one 666 00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:46,240 Speaker 1: and a half from the Cowboys. I'm gonna take the 667 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,880 Speaker 1: Jets getting three from the Steelers, the Dolphins and the 668 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 1: Bengals over forty six and a half, and the Cardinals 669 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 1: getting nine and a half from the Seahawks. All right, 670 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:55,440 Speaker 1: Before we move on to our next segment, I want 671 00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 1: to tell everybody about the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM, 672 00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,360 Speaker 1: and specifically the bet MGM sports app. Do you like 673 00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 1: betting on sports? Do you like betting on sports from 674 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 1: the comfort of your own home? Do you like betting 675 00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,160 Speaker 1: on sports from the comfort of your own home and 676 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:13,240 Speaker 1: basically being offered free money. 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All right, John, 712 00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:48,400 Speaker 1: let's move on to It's a trap, where we list 713 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,520 Speaker 1: the line that we are avoiding. What do you have? 714 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 2: You know? I really liked this Denver team at times 715 00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:57,760 Speaker 2: as a giant dog. I like them, I really like 716 00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,360 Speaker 2: them against the Texans and that gigantic number A couple 717 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,720 Speaker 2: of weeks ago, I thought they were undervalue, but now 718 00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,240 Speaker 2: I think the market's corrected a little too much. But 719 00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,400 Speaker 2: they're going up against the Detroit lines. Detroit's getting six 720 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,560 Speaker 2: and a half. Oh man, I just want no part 721 00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 2: of this game. I mean, it's a really weird non 722 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 2: conference road game. Again, I kind of like what I've 723 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 2: seen out of a lock here, but it's a very 724 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,480 Speaker 2: limited sample size. Then on the other side, he got Detroit, 725 00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:27,440 Speaker 2: who they just made it clear they're not going to 726 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 2: fire their head coach, So I don't know how that's 727 00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,080 Speaker 2: going to impact things. Six and a half feels like 728 00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 2: a lot for this Denver team who looked that bad 729 00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 2: against Kansas City. But yeah, I don't really want to 730 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:39,680 Speaker 2: take either team in this, so yeah, that's one to 731 00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 2: avoid for sure. 732 00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:42,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, when I first looked at it, I kind of 733 00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,360 Speaker 1: like Denver a little bit just because I feel like, 734 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:46,120 Speaker 1: how is David Blow going to be able to move 735 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:48,960 Speaker 1: the ball on this offense? But you know, this may 736 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:50,600 Speaker 1: be sort of more of a narrative thing, but I 737 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:52,520 Speaker 1: feel like at this stage of the year, right when 738 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:54,440 Speaker 1: you've got these teams that are out of it, and 739 00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:56,880 Speaker 1: you know, the Broncos come home after a road trip 740 00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,600 Speaker 1: and stuff like that, and they're probably just kind of like, 741 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:03,760 Speaker 1: you know, it's the holiday season, right, they're just sort 742 00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 1: of getting fat and happy and just like, Okay, I 743 00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 1: feel like the intensity might not be there. So it 744 00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,120 Speaker 1: was something that kind of moved me off. But yeah, 745 00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 1: a game like that is just not really a fun 746 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,760 Speaker 1: game to bet. And it's kind of very similar to 747 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,160 Speaker 1: the game that I'm avoiding, and that's the Chargers laying 748 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 1: six and a half Raiders. I don't know what I'm 749 00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,240 Speaker 1: going to get from either of these teams at any 750 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,240 Speaker 1: given game. The Raiders had absolutely no business losing that 751 00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:27,600 Speaker 1: game to Jacksonville last weekend. It was their final game 752 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:29,360 Speaker 1: in Oakland. They came out hot, and then they're just 753 00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:31,880 Speaker 1: like all right, cool, cool, that's cool, We'll just hang 754 00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,400 Speaker 1: back whatever. It was completely in hand. I mean, well, 755 00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,600 Speaker 1: the Chargers are the least reliable team in the NFL 756 00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:39,760 Speaker 1: right now. They're cable looking really really good at any 757 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 1: given time or completely got awful, which they did the 758 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,160 Speaker 1: majority of the time. They were the sharp side of 759 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,560 Speaker 1: that game last week against the Bikes right out of 760 00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:47,960 Speaker 1: the line. 761 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,440 Speaker 2: Seven seven turnovers. That's a I mean, that's a real 762 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,760 Speaker 2: oh geez, the Chargers, I feel. 763 00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:58,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, And you know, I was all over the Vike gigs. 764 00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:00,560 Speaker 1: I was like, this is the public side. I'm willing 765 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 1: to ride with the public at this point because there's 766 00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 1: just no way I think they're gonna do it. So again, 767 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,080 Speaker 1: it's I believe it's River's last game at home, you know, 768 00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,360 Speaker 1: so you know he'll he'll go out there. Maybe they 769 00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,280 Speaker 1: get up for it. But six and a half again 770 00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,440 Speaker 1: a big number. I have no idea what I'm gonna 771 00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:16,320 Speaker 1: get from either of these two teams. So it's sort 772 00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 1: of like your pick six and a half, a big 773 00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,960 Speaker 1: spread from two teams that I have no idea how 774 00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,360 Speaker 1: motivated they are or what you're gonna see from either 775 00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,280 Speaker 1: one of them. So I'm gonna avoid it. So you'll 776 00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,560 Speaker 1: avoid the Broncos lank six and a half to the Lions, 777 00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:30,240 Speaker 1: I'll avoid the Chargers lank six and a half to 778 00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,560 Speaker 1: the Raiders, and we will both be happier for it. 779 00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 1: So before we go to our final segment, I want 780 00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:37,760 Speaker 1: to mind everyone about our giveaway. It is a signed 781 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,840 Speaker 1: Michael Thomas Saints helmet. You can go to bettingpros dot 782 00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,600 Speaker 1: com slash contest for more details, but to enter, just 783 00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:45,960 Speaker 1: leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or 784 00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 1: Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest 785 00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com. If you have already entered a 786 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,440 Speaker 1: previous contest, you were automatically entered for this one, so 787 00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 1: no worries about that. 788 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:55,960 Speaker 2: Now. 789 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 1: The Thomas helmet, all of our signed helmets, they come 790 00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,000 Speaker 1: from Pristine Auction, where they're off for a ton of 791 00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:04,720 Speaker 1: great memorabilia with thousands of auctions every single day. Just 792 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,520 Speaker 1: go to Pristineauction dot com. That's p R I S 793 00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 1: T i n E Auction dot com. And when you 794 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:12,600 Speaker 1: go there, use our promo code Betting Pros and win 795 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,839 Speaker 1: a free five dollars voucher instantly. All right, John, let's 796 00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:19,680 Speaker 1: finish up with top prop, your top prop bet of 797 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:20,480 Speaker 1: the week. What do you have? 798 00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,960 Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Jamis Winston to get over three hundred 799 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:27,520 Speaker 2: up plus passing yards see it at minus one fourteen. 800 00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:29,960 Speaker 2: I mean, I like all versions of this, three hundred 801 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:33,719 Speaker 2: and three fifty, four hundred four fifty. Just go all 802 00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:36,520 Speaker 2: in on this because not only is Tampa Bay passing 803 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:40,120 Speaker 2: the ball well, but Houston they're passing defense twenty eighth 804 00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,120 Speaker 2: in passing yards in the league, and if you look 805 00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:45,080 Speaker 2: at their average per game two hundred ninety one passing 806 00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:49,160 Speaker 2: yards per game the last three games, again Winston coming 807 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:51,959 Speaker 2: off four hundred and fifty yard back to back performances. 808 00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,880 Speaker 2: Maybe there's a little regression, but I like taking props 809 00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:58,680 Speaker 2: where you can build a scenario for either team that 810 00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,040 Speaker 2: still gets you into the prop. And so for me, 811 00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,680 Speaker 2: I think even if the if the Bucks don't win somehow, 812 00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:06,719 Speaker 2: or if they if they're getting blown out, I think 813 00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:08,879 Speaker 2: they're still gonna be passing. If they're winning, I think 814 00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,919 Speaker 2: it's gonna be because they're passing a bunch. So either way, 815 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:14,719 Speaker 2: I think Winston's gonna get his, especially when it comes 816 00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:15,520 Speaker 2: to passing yards. 817 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:19,240 Speaker 1: Now, to be clear, the correct bet is James Winston 818 00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,200 Speaker 1: over four hundred passing yards at plus five point fifty. 819 00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:25,400 Speaker 1: That is the one we're gonna do. I'm gonna do it. Yeah, No, 820 00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:28,600 Speaker 1: I like everything everything you said makes sense. Again. The 821 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:30,800 Speaker 1: one worry with it is the fact that he pretty 822 00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:33,319 Speaker 1: much has nobody left to throw to. But I don't care. 823 00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 1: He's nine hundred and five yards away. I believe from 824 00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:39,640 Speaker 1: breaking Peyton Manning's single season passing yards, Mark right, that's 825 00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:43,840 Speaker 1: two games of four hundred and fifty yards or whatever. Yeah, 826 00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:45,799 Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of throwing, as you mentioned 827 00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:49,319 Speaker 1: the Texans twenty six and Dvoa against the pass, So 828 00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:51,719 Speaker 1: I do think they're gonna need points. They're gonna be throwing, 829 00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:53,799 Speaker 1: So I love it. That's definitely a prop that I 830 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:57,480 Speaker 1: will be interested in. I'm also interested in at prop. 831 00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,279 Speaker 1: I'll be honest, Winston would have been my time prop 832 00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:02,719 Speaker 1: had you not stolen it. So I'm not gonna lie. 833 00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:04,719 Speaker 1: But you know you've you've been, You've been a good guest. 834 00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:06,160 Speaker 1: I'm gonna let you. I'm gonna let you have the 835 00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:08,799 Speaker 1: pass that on. So I'm gonna go with a less 836 00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,360 Speaker 1: impressive prop, but still one that I'm gonna be playing, 837 00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,440 Speaker 1: and that's Terry McLaurin. To go over one hundred receiving HOURDS, 838 00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:16,520 Speaker 1: that's a plus one seventy, so you're getting, you know, 839 00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:18,840 Speaker 1: close to two to one on your money. Janoris Jenkins 840 00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:20,759 Speaker 1: has gone for the Giants. You can pass on them, 841 00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:22,799 Speaker 1: particularly as their run defense has gotten a little bit 842 00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,040 Speaker 1: stronger over the past several weeks. Now, I know Bill 843 00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,360 Speaker 1: Callahan just wants to run the ball NonStop. But you 844 00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:31,360 Speaker 1: have seen of late Dwayne Haskins actually playing a little 845 00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:34,360 Speaker 1: bit better, and he and McLaurin are finally showing a 846 00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:36,920 Speaker 1: little bit of the connection from college that everybody had 847 00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,200 Speaker 1: kind of been waiting for. And he caught all five 848 00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:41,040 Speaker 1: of his targets, and that's really what it was. I mean, 849 00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:44,320 Speaker 1: sometimes Haskins just like missing him and it's just terrible 850 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:45,880 Speaker 1: to watch him. But you know they're getting you know, 851 00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:48,239 Speaker 1: the efficiency is getting better. They're showing a little more 852 00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:50,560 Speaker 1: of that connection. I think they're gonna be chasing points 853 00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:52,520 Speaker 1: in this game. I think the Giants are gonna be 854 00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:54,600 Speaker 1: able to put up I think Saquon looks close to 855 00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:56,640 Speaker 1: being back to full strength. I think they have their 856 00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,000 Speaker 1: full compliment of passing weapons outside of Evan Ingram, but 857 00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:00,640 Speaker 1: the three receivers. So I think the Giants will put 858 00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:03,160 Speaker 1: up points. I think the Redskins are going to need 859 00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,600 Speaker 1: to try to ketch up to keep up with them. 860 00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:07,120 Speaker 1: I think that in the end there's gonna be at 861 00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:09,279 Speaker 1: least one or two big plays to McLaurin. So one 862 00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:13,279 Speaker 1: hundred receiving yards at plus one seventy's I'll call that 863 00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:15,680 Speaker 1: my second top prop because my first one is Winston, 864 00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,239 Speaker 1: but I'll go to McLaurin over one hundred receiving yards 865 00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:19,160 Speaker 1: at plus one seventy. 866 00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:21,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that as well. I mean I got 867 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:26,640 Speaker 2: McLaurin and a bunch of my DFS lineups. I mean, yeah, 868 00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:30,000 Speaker 2: it's a great matchup. And again, yeah, these yards after catch. 869 00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:32,400 Speaker 2: I mean, maybe it's just how bad the Eagles tackling is, 870 00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:35,160 Speaker 2: but he's definitely been great for yards after catch as well. 871 00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:38,279 Speaker 2: And yeah, especially against that Giants seconder, it's a great 872 00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:39,000 Speaker 2: matchup for him. 873 00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, especially without Jenkins. And that is the thing I 874 00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:43,960 Speaker 1: mean McLaurin is, you know, a type of guy who 875 00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:45,840 Speaker 1: can take a short pass and take it to the 876 00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 1: house and build all those yards after the catch. So 877 00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:49,879 Speaker 1: it is something I'm gonna be playing both of those, 878 00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:52,800 Speaker 1: but I'll be honest, I do like yours a little 879 00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:54,600 Speaker 1: bit better because I think I would have gone with that. 880 00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:54,719 Speaker 2: Well. 881 00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:56,960 Speaker 1: Anyway, that is going to do it for today's show. 882 00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,040 Speaker 1: Thanks again for joining me, Sean. Remind everybody where they 883 00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,160 Speaker 1: can find more of you in your Yeah. 884 00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,200 Speaker 2: Just check me out on Twitter at Shawn T. Green 885 00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:05,880 Speaker 2: and then of course the sports gambling podcasts at Gambling 886 00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:11,000 Speaker 2: Podcast or check it out, Sports gamlingpodcast dot Com, iTunes, Spotify, 887 00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:13,279 Speaker 2: and yeah, wherever you can listen to podcasts. 888 00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,960 Speaker 1: Awesome. Well, I want tomind everyone about bet MGM, where 889 00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,040 Speaker 1: you can win one hundred dollars in free bets on 890 00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:20,319 Speaker 1: your one dollar money line bet on the Chiefs to 891 00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:23,439 Speaker 1: beat the Bears so long as Patrick Mahomes completes even 892 00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:26,160 Speaker 1: a single pass. If you sign up for the bet 893 00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:28,880 Speaker 1: MGM Sports app and use our promo code Harris, and 894 00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,440 Speaker 1: don't forget to leave a review for the show on 895 00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,120 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or Stitcher, send a screenshot of that review 896 00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:36,799 Speaker 1: to contest at Bettingpros dot com to be entered into 897 00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:40,160 Speaker 1: our Michael Thomas Saints signed helmet giveaway. Good luck with 898 00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:42,480 Speaker 1: your wagers this week and everybody. We'll be back breaking 899 00:38:42,520 --> 00:39:00,360 Speaker 1: down the early lines for week seventeen on Monday, so