WEBVTT - Beating The Book: Warren Sharp, 2019 NFL Strength of Schedule Analysis 2.0 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:11.520 Term check It Down Man, Now Down Man Thursday A 0:00:12.360 --> 0:00:16.040 twenty nine Teams of Seating the Book podcast It's Kill Alexander. 0:00:16.239 --> 0:00:18.600 Warren Sharp was on the show last episode of Tough 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:21.440 Strength of Schedule right after the release of NFL season 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:24.920 win totals at CG Technology, the first shop to release 0:00:25.079 --> 0:00:28.360 NFL season win totals for the season. Well, now we 0:00:28.400 --> 0:00:32.040 know who plays, who win. Time to dive deeper NFL 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:34.920 Strength of Schedule two point oh with Warren Sharp on 0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:39.200 today's Beating the Book podcast. Enjoy This is a Number 0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:42.280 Game with Kil Alexander and broadcasting only on the Vegas 0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:48.280 Stats and Information Network and wabil gidiots will believe in analytics. Analytics, 0:00:48.280 --> 0:00:50.960 statistics and more are used to win wagers and Gil 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:54.160 has every number you need to catch your tickets now 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:56.720 live from the Visa in studios in the South Point 0:00:56.720 --> 0:01:00.480 Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander, our number two of 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:02.120 the Numbers Game right here in Visa Vegas Stats and 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:04.360 Information Network, Serious X of Channel two of four, Visa 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:07.360 dot Com, the Visa Boobo TV, Sling TV as well 0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:10.920 Skill Alexander. Jeff Parls is here. Let's do a little 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:13.880 football a little more than twenty four hours away now 0:01:14.280 --> 0:01:18.199 from the NFL Draft. We'll get into that with Pete 0:01:18.200 --> 0:01:22.120 Futech coming up momentarily his favorite draft props. First, though, 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:26.080 the man himself, um not only uh, the guy who 0:01:26.160 --> 0:01:28.680 runs sharp football stats dot com, sharp football and elysis 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:30.959 dot com and can be followed on Twitter at sharp football, 0:01:31.360 --> 0:01:34.240 but a gentleman who made his appearance in the action 0:01:34.319 --> 0:01:37.639 docuseries as well alongside our friend Bill Crackenburger is Warren 0:01:37.640 --> 0:01:40.960 Sharblay's gentlemen. Good morning to you, Warren, Hey, good morning Gil. 0:01:40.959 --> 0:01:42.399 How are you doing. I'm doing very well. How was 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:46.240 that experience for you? By the way, the action series, um, 0:01:46.280 --> 0:01:50.160 I mean the the experience itself of the filming itself 0:01:50.320 --> 0:01:53.080 up at U up in New Jersey was was a 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:57.400 good experience. Obviously, let me see crack again in person. 0:01:57.760 --> 0:02:00.280 We do a lot of our working during the season 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:04.280 and off season over the phone, so it was good 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:06.880 to see him in person and talk to him for 0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:10.040 a little bit. But uh, yeah, you know, as you know, 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:12.680 because you were on the show, they filmed for like 0:02:12.760 --> 0:02:16.400 three hours and used like three minutes. But that's that's 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:20.800 to be that's to be expected. Um So Yeah, a 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:23.680 good overall experience sitting there with those guys Warren, that 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:26.280 show biz. That's what they tell me. That's how that works. Apparently, 0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:29.480 before we get to uh, your strength of schedule comments, 0:02:29.480 --> 0:02:32.200 because I know you went on a on a torrent 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:35.359 of strength of schedule tweets this morning, I want to 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:37.640 talk to you about some interesting tweets you had. I 0:02:37.639 --> 0:02:40.440 found them interesting anyway. And I always say about you, 0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:43.040 as good as you are on game by game analysis, 0:02:43.040 --> 0:02:45.680 one of the things you're underrated for is your analysis 0:02:45.720 --> 0:02:50.079 of roster construction. And I found this Chief's Seahawks trade 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:52.200 to be a very interesting prison through which to look 0:02:52.240 --> 0:02:56.240 at that. So the Chiefs released Justin Houston this offseason. 0:02:56.240 --> 0:02:59.040 They trade Dfour not because of ability, but because of 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:03.320 money consideration and the fact that they are maybe saving 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:05.920 up for some contracts they gotta they gotta worry about 0:03:05.919 --> 0:03:08.120 the future, most prominently perhaps Tyreek Hill. And we know 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:11.200 how that goes now, uh. And then they're switching from 0:03:11.200 --> 0:03:13.639 a three four to a four three. And so with 0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:17.480 all of that sort of as a backdrop, yesterday the 0:03:17.840 --> 0:03:22.120 Chiefs um trade after trading d Fords in the Niners 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:24.600 in the first round, they traded for a first round 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:28.800 pick yesterday for Seattle's Frank Clark. Not only that, but 0:03:28.880 --> 0:03:32.840 they give Clark a five year contract sixty three point 0:03:32.880 --> 0:03:35.720 five million dollars guaranteed, though that guarantee number could prove 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:39.440 to be smaller once we get full details here. But essentially, 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:42.840 when you look at Ford's contract, he cost San Francisco 0:03:42.880 --> 0:03:45.080 just thirty three and a half million guaranteed. So it's 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:48.000 not that the Chiefs believe Clark is worth d Ford 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:50.360 plus the first round pick. They actually believe Clark is 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:52.840 worth d Ford plus first round pick and thirty million dollars, 0:03:52.880 --> 0:03:55.400 basically what we're saying. But your prism here, I think 0:03:55.480 --> 0:03:58.560 is the smart one, which is looking at from the 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:01.960 Seattle perspective with and here's your tweet, now, Warren with 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:06.480 Russ under contract, Seattle gained four comp picks in next 0:04:06.560 --> 0:04:09.400 year's draft by letting guys walk, including a third and fourth. 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:13.000 They couldn't pay Clark hundred five million dollars, so instead 0:04:13.000 --> 0:04:14.800 of a messy holdout, they got a first and second 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:18.440 in return. That's how you stack the deck in your 0:04:18.520 --> 0:04:21.279 favor with a big money quarterback. Now the next tweet, 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:23.320 and this is where I want you to to to 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:26.200 go off on here, Warren is, we've talked about this 0:04:26.279 --> 0:04:28.640 you and I before, that you win Super Bowls either 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:31.960 with a Hall of Fame quarterback or the Seattle way, 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:35.880 the quarterback on a rookie contract. And you're suggesting here 0:04:35.920 --> 0:04:38.920 now that while Seattle sort of perfected that they may 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:43.080 be perfecting a whole new thing here explained please, right, 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:45.880 So there, they've got to figure out this brave new 0:04:45.880 --> 0:04:47.360 world for them, which is, how are we going to 0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:50.720 create a competitive roster with a quarterback that's taken up 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:54.120 thirty million dollars of cap space a quarterback who we're 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:56.839 paying was like a hundred sixty million over four years 0:04:56.839 --> 0:05:00.279 something along those lines. So, uh, it's uncharted territ tory 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:03.080 for them and for any team in the league. If 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:05.400 you look around the league, nobody's paying a quarterback as 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:08.440 much as they're paying Russell Wilson. So uh, you know, 0:05:08.480 --> 0:05:10.599 some people are coming up, well, the Patriots were able 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:12.719 to do this, and that well, the Patriots, like Tom 0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:15.280 Brady hasn't been inside the top ten and cap hit 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:18.479 in a long time. So the Patriots and Bill Belichick 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:21.080 don't have to worry about this problem. Seattle has to 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:23.960 figure out, now, how are we going to win games 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:27.640 with a quarterback taking up this much cap space? Because 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:32.600 once CBA came along and they signed Russ and they 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:34.920 all of a sudden, we're able to attack aggressively. They 0:05:35.000 --> 0:05:37.400 hit on a couple of drafts and they weren't paying 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:39.960 their quarterback much so they could build the roster around him. Well, 0:05:40.160 --> 0:05:43.200 now you can't do that. You're in the exact obsituation situation. 0:05:43.600 --> 0:05:47.960 Um So, I believe what they are doing is letting 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:51.240 their big money guys walk out the door instead of 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:54.240 spending a bunch to resign these guys. You know, we'll 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:56.640 see they don't have any very many draft picks this 0:05:56.800 --> 0:05:59.720 upcoming draft, so getting a couple of draft picks they 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:01.760 got a first this year, they got a second next year, 0:06:02.279 --> 0:06:05.080 is valuable. So that's what this trade accomplished in part. 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:08.040 Now they have two first round draft picks. The total 0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:11.240 first round draft picks the Seattle Seahawks had from two 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:14.960 thousand thirteen to two eighteen was too that six years 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:18.520 they had two first round draft picks in they have 0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:20.960 to now will they take one of those in trade 0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:23.400 down and try to bring in a few more players? 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:26.880 Um As a result, possibly because they only had I 0:06:26.880 --> 0:06:30.880 think entering the trade four picks. But the end result 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:34.719 is they need to build up their roster, which lost 0:06:34.720 --> 0:06:39.719 I means everybody defensively that was a well known household name, 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:42.760 all the legion of Boom obviously has gone. They need 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:44.640 to build up that roster. And you're not going to 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:48.160 be able to build up a roster with fifth and 0:06:48.200 --> 0:06:50.640 sixth and seventh round draft picks and expect to hit 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:53.360 on those. You need those top three to four round 0:06:53.440 --> 0:06:56.120 draft picks that have a much higher hit rate. Uh. 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:58.599 And now they are going to have those with the 0:06:58.640 --> 0:07:01.559 first this year, with at next year, with a third 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:04.720 and a fourth from comp Pics next year. So they 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:08.680 have this arsenal, this incoming war chest of higher value 0:07:08.800 --> 0:07:10.960 draft picks that they're going to be able to turn 0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:14.160 into players. And all those players under the current c 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:17.080 BA will have very cheap rookie deals. It will get 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:20.320 them four years of of a cheaper salary that they 0:07:20.360 --> 0:07:23.840 can get excellent play out of them, presuming that they 0:07:23.920 --> 0:07:27.200 hit on these guys and that their higher round draft picks, 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:30.200 which is what they've what they've accomplished in this trade. 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:33.040 So from a chief's perspective Warren. And this is where 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:35.840 I a full disclosure. I said to my producer Jeff 0:07:35.880 --> 0:07:38.400 before before the show, I said, here's where Warren, who 0:07:38.480 --> 0:07:40.240 is much smarter than me on these kinds of things, 0:07:40.320 --> 0:07:42.720 might disagree with me. But I texted my buddy yesterday 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:44.840 who's also a keen football observer, and I said, from 0:07:44.880 --> 0:07:47.760 a Chief's perspective, I go, they got rid of Houston, 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:51.280 they trade forward, and then they trade for Clark. They 0:07:51.320 --> 0:07:53.480 give up, They give up first, and they have to 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:56.200 pay him all this money. I get it, they're going 0:07:56.240 --> 0:07:58.880 to a four three. I get it they're changing. But 0:07:58.960 --> 0:08:01.720 when you look at it like sort of big picture, 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:05.800 doesn't this look like just poor gm NG. What am 0:08:05.840 --> 0:08:11.560 I missing here? Well, you know, the the Chiefs are 0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:15.880 in the same position that the Seahawks were several years 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:18.360 ago when Russ was in his rookie deal. So they're 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:21.120 in this position where much like the Philadelphia Eagles did 0:08:21.120 --> 0:08:24.240 and much like the l A. Rams did, they can 0:08:24.280 --> 0:08:28.920 bring on key impactful players because their quarterbacks not occupying 0:08:28.920 --> 0:08:32.640 a lot of the cap space and because they need 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:35.559 those different makers. I think what they what they envisioned 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:40.080 is with with Ford, for example, he can't play the 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:44.319 end like their new defensive coordinator needs him to play, 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:47.000 and they're switching schemes, and he's not going to be 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:48.880 able to play with his hand in the ground, so 0:08:48.960 --> 0:08:50.640 they needed somebody who was going to be able to 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:53.360 do that. And the run defense was terrible last year, 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:56.679 and Ford is an upgrade on the run defensive perspective, 0:08:57.000 --> 0:09:00.600 So I I sort of understand why they made a 0:09:00.640 --> 0:09:04.079 move like this. UM I don't love spending a huge 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:07.120 contract dollars, but if this guy is going to produce 0:09:07.160 --> 0:09:09.960 on the field and prove worthy of it, that's to 0:09:10.080 --> 0:09:13.480 be determined. So I can't say they're spending too much 0:09:13.520 --> 0:09:15.040 on him right now because I don't know what he's 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:17.559 going to actually produce. He may very well earn all 0:09:17.600 --> 0:09:20.360 of that money. With the cap continuing to rise. With 0:09:20.400 --> 0:09:22.600 a quarterback on a rookie deal, it's not the end 0:09:22.600 --> 0:09:25.040 of the world to make a move like this, especially 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:28.600 with the guys that have left your building, um and 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:31.440 and the scheme that you want to implement. This guy 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:33.839 is a great fit for it, So I don't think 0:09:33.840 --> 0:09:35.720 it's the worst thing in the world. I just think 0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:39.720 it's a it's a bigger win for the Seattle Seahawks 0:09:39.760 --> 0:09:43.800 with their projected future because they have the big money quarterbacks, 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:45.280 how the hell were they going to build around and 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:47.920 Will Boom. Here's a great way to do that. Avoid 0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:50.720 the messy hold out. Get these draft picks in there 0:09:51.000 --> 0:09:53.319 and be able to spend them. Hopefully they don't trade 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:55.320 down too much. Hopefully they get a couple of good 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:57.320 guys towards the top of the draft that will make 0:09:57.320 --> 0:09:59.440 an impact form. So I think it's a bigger win 0:09:59.800 --> 0:10:02.280 for where the Seahawks. I think it makes some sense 0:10:02.480 --> 0:10:05.240 for the Chiefs. The time will tell more than anything 0:10:05.280 --> 0:10:08.000 whether or not Clark earns that money. Yeah, all right, 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:10.160 well Warren, let's uh. And by the way, of course, 0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:12.520 that doesn't even get into a whole discussion of you know, 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:17.040 they they let Hunt go and they decided to believe 0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:19.880 in Hill, and that's a whole another discussion for another day. 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:23.400 As far as strength of schedule goes, you and I 0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:26.679 talked a few weeks ago when we when season win 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:28.840 totals first came out at CG Technology. It was the 0:10:28.840 --> 0:10:31.800 first time we could look through that prism at your 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:35.160 way of analyzing strength of schedule for the upcoming NFL season. Now, 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:39.280 we know who's playing who when we have the week 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:42.320 by week schedule, and so this produces a whole another 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:44.520 sort of torrent of comments from you. Where would you 0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:47.480 like to start on this, Well, I think the first 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:49.920 place to start. You know, a lot of people question 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:54.200 the usefulness and the utility of analyzing strength of schedule 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:57.480 this time of year because they have heard me in 0:10:57.480 --> 0:11:00.480 the past say that using last year's win lass record 0:11:00.640 --> 0:11:06.920 is moronic, but they haven't fully bought into using future 0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:09.640 forecast and strength of schedule at this time in April. 0:11:09.640 --> 0:11:11.679 What what's the point? These teams are different than they 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:14.120 were last year, and I think that's a great place 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:16.800 to start, because yes, they are different, but there is 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:20.560 a correlation element here that we can utilize and gain 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:23.920 some utility from looking back at last year's schedule and 0:11:24.520 --> 0:11:27.440 examining what the team is going to face this upcoming here. 0:11:27.960 --> 0:11:30.199 One of the interesting things that obviously the way that 0:11:30.240 --> 0:11:32.679 I look at strength of schedule first and foremost if 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.080 you're looking at total schedule, is I like to look 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:38.280 at uh season win totals of their opponents, so we 0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:42.160 can get a better understanding of the overall quality of 0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:45.000 this opponents schedule. In twenty nineteen based on what we 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:48.400 think these teams are going to be like in There's 0:11:48.400 --> 0:11:51.120 another way you can look at it, which is kind 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:54.959 of like looking at all the efficiency metrics from eighteen 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:59.000 and pushing them into twenty nineteen. And by that, I 0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:01.200 mean you can look at what a team is going 0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:04.439 to face in terms of past defenses in just by 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:06.839 looking at first cut, what do they face in two? 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:11.400 What are the defenses rank in that they're playing in. Now, 0:12:11.559 --> 0:12:13.679 it's not a perfect world, but there is a correlation. 0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:17.240 There's zero point three. Three is the correlation factor that 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:20.800 it correlates from year over year over the last five years. 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:24.840 And uh net and net takeaway on all of this 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:27.839 is that when I look at strength of schedule based 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:29.880 on wind totals, which is kind of the thing I 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:32.840 came up with six seven years ago, whatever it was, 0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:35.160 and you look at the strength of schedule based on 0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:40.280 efficiency of these opponents, what I found is that twenty 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:44.600 of the thirty two teams actually have a forecast twenty 0:12:44.679 --> 0:12:47.640 nineteen strength of schedule by the two different methods that 0:12:47.720 --> 0:12:52.240 are within three position ranks. For instance, the New England 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:54.840 Patriots based on wind totals, I showed them having the 0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:58.640 easiest schedule this upcoming year based on opponent efficiency, I 0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:01.839 showed them having a thirty the easiest schedule. That's a 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:05.120 comparison there too. It changes between from one to three 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:08.080 at the variants of two. Most of these teams in 0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:12.640 the league are within three ranking spots, which tells me 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:16.640 that these two methods that I'm using are very consistent 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:20.800 and interchangeable for the most part. The key with strength 0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:23.600 of schedules always looking at those extremes. So there are 0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:26.320 some teams like the Cleveland Browns of the Pittsburgh Steelers 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:29.360 who based on wind totals have a much easier schedule 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:33.040 than what efficiency ends up forecasting for them. And there's 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:36.120 a team in particular, Carolina Panthers, who based on wind 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:39.480 totals has a much more difficult schedule than what they do. 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:42.119 But when you look at their schedule based on efficiency, 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:44.920 So I think the underlying thing is just looking at 0:13:45.080 --> 0:13:48.560 is their utility in discussing strength of schedule And the 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:51.880 answer is yes. And there's multiple methods to use strength 0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:54.760 of schedule where you're looking at efficiency or wind totals, 0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:56.840 But what you definitely don't want to do is look 0:13:56.880 --> 0:14:00.559 at win loss and look at those six team games 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:04.439 just from a win loss binomial perspective, and then forecast 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:07.000 strength of schedule from this, because that is lazy if 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:09.360 nothing else, that's for sure. And you point out in 0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:11.480 your tweet here the first one of your strength of 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:14.400 schedule tweets that based on total efficiency comparing strength of 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:17.840 schedule faced in versus last year, the schedules that ease 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:23.920 the most would be UH Cincinnati, Buffalo, Cleveland, Philly, Pittsburgh. 0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:27.640 And the schedules to get the hardest the Texans, the Bears, 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:31.800 the Colts, the Packers, and the Falcons all there at 0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:35.080 Sharp Football from Warren Sharp Warren, let's take a brief 0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:36.520 break here. I want to come back and want to 0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:39.160 talk to you about because I'm involved in something that 0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:42.200 is dynamic, a sort of stock market of NFL teams 0:14:42.200 --> 0:14:43.720 where you can buy and sell as a as a 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:46.120 year goes on. So I'm always very curious as to 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:49.360 what schedules get hard at the end, what may start 0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:52.600 out easier. We'll get into that next with Warren right 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:54.720 here on a numbers game in Visa. This show derives 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:57.560 in support, as always from bookmaker Dot You and industry 0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:00.440 leader for Close to thirty years where their first post 0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:04.760 lines have the highest limits and never never kick out 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:07.480 winning players. That's what they pride themselves on their motto, 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:12.080 where the lines originate, because chances are your book uses 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:14.920 their lines. That's the truth about Bookmaker dot e. It 0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:19.120 is key to my betting experience. I would not bet 0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:22.880 without them. You grab onto them. You will thank me later. 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:25.120 I promise you. Right now you can visit Bookmaker dot 0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:28.600 eu slash gill. That's Bookmaker dot e slash g I 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:32.440 l L. We'll get you an exclusive welcome bonus of 0:15:32.560 --> 0:15:34.960 up to three dollars. You don't get it right away, 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:37.520 you're like, where's my bonus? Hit me up. I'll make 0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:40.040 sure you get. Promise you that it's Bookmaker dot eu 0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:43.040 slash Gill's Bookmaker dot eu slash g I l L 0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:45.520 to join and claim your exclusive bonus of up to 0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:50.040 three hundred dollars right now. Betting replays betting in game 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:53.800 the greatest in game menu you will see anywhere. It's 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:57.640 a place to be Bookmaker dot eu slash gil. Now 0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:00.600 back to a numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:03.760 broadcasting live from our visa in studios in Las Vegas. 0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:06.400 This segment brought to you by Points Bet, New Jersey's 0:16:06.400 --> 0:16:08.720 premium sports book. They have the best promos out there, 0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:11.400 including an amazing golfer for the NBA Playoffs. All you 0:16:11.440 --> 0:16:13.200 have to do is place a money line bet on 0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:16.040 any NBA team. If your team is up after the 0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:19.280 third court, they'll pay out instantly, even if your team 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:20.760 goes on to lose. Be sure to sign up with 0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:23.040 the Code Visa and you'll get two risk free bets 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:25.520 up to one thousand dollars. Again, that's Code V s 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:27.600 I N. Don't miss out on all the action. Download 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:29.800 the app on iOS and Android today, New Jersey only. 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:32.240 Must be twenty one years of age or older to bet. 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:35.480 Additional terms and conditions apply. Gambling problem called one eight 0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:39.960 hundred gambler points Bet Stay Sharp speaking to Sharp Warren 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:42.640 Sharp here on the show on a numbers game. Kind 0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:45.000 enough to join us uh this morning for a little 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:46.720 strength of schedule two point oh talk and you can 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:50.920 follow him at sharp Football on Twitter and Warren. Once 0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:53.160 folks go to Sharp Football, they can go to your 0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:54.640 Twitter to look at all this stuff, or they can 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:58.160 go to sharp football Stats for all the visuals. Yeah, 0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:01.440 everything's up at Sharp football stats interactive visuals that lets 0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:04.800 you choose up to thirty five different metrics that you 0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:08.880 can view a team's schedule like visually week by week 0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:11.159 looking at their opponents that are face based on what 0:17:11.280 --> 0:17:13.800 those rank UM. And you can find it if you 0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:17.400 go under the offensive menu down at strength of schedule 0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:20.240 at the bottom of that. I also lifted for defensive 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:22.640 strength of schedule as well, so in case you want 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:25.720 to look at what do what offenses is a defense 0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:27.679 going to face? And a lot of people like to 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:31.200 use this for fantasy football information, but as we both know, 0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:34.800 this type of information is obviously very important for sports 0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:37.480 betting as well. For sports betting as well for some 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:39.560 of the vehicles that I that I'm betting. In your 0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:42.200 your last couple of tweets, I want to get to 0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:45.240 because the second last one from this morning that is 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:48.600 UM talking about just what you were just saying right there, 0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:51.520 which is about offensive strength of schedule weeks one through six. 0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:53.560 You just happen to put out that visual right here, 0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:56.240 and what you're saying is the Ravens run game could 0:17:56.320 --> 0:18:01.520 smash early in the season. That's one of the headlines. Yeah, Yeah, 0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:04.040 there's definitely a way that you're going to be able 0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:08.200 to use this information to try to help forecast, um, 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:11.119 you know, how how good a team could be based 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:13.760 on different units of the ball early in the season. 0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:16.399 I think we both know getting out the gates early 0:18:16.720 --> 0:18:19.840 is something that a lot of teams is very important 0:18:19.920 --> 0:18:22.560 to get started on the right track. And you know, 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:28.200 the Baltimore Ravens face a tremendously easy schedule of opposing defenses, 0:18:28.480 --> 0:18:32.600 especially run defenses, to start the season. Based upon their 0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:39.520 rank in uh, they're gonna face in succession, the Miami Dolphins, 0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:43.399 the Arizona Cardinals, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Cleveland Browns, 0:18:43.400 --> 0:18:47.160 the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Since that I Bengles, five 0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:51.639 of those six teams rank bottom ten last season in 0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:54.720 terms of run defensive ficiency. The Steelers were the only 0:18:54.760 --> 0:18:58.920 team that ranked above the bottom ten. So they're gonna 0:18:58.920 --> 0:19:01.639 be in a very situation. Is going to help Lamar 0:19:01.760 --> 0:19:04.280 Jackson out because yeah, he does struggle to throw the 0:19:04.280 --> 0:19:07.000 football a little bit. Their passing game is not that dynamic, 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:09.440 and so they'll be able to sort of ease into 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:13.119 that probably a little bit in by the fact that 0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:14.840 they're going to be able to rely a lot on. 0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:19.880 They're very aggressive and difficult to defend run attacks, so 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:22.399 that's something that they're going to happen at the edge four. 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:25.920 It's also interesting to note that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:31.240 will face the easiest schedule of opposing past defenses in 0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:34.919 twent nineteen, and as we both know, we've got Bruce 0:19:35.040 --> 0:19:37.560 Arians moving down to Tampa Bay. Yes, they lost to 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:42.280 Sean Jackson. The Bruce Arians running his offense down in 0:19:42.359 --> 0:19:46.119 Tampa Bay should be interesting for us when we're examining 0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:48.719 some of the past defenses that they're going to go 0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:51.200 up against the start the upcoming season. The only one 0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:54.040 that's really difficult in that mix from last year at 0:19:54.119 --> 0:19:57.239 least was the l A Rams under Wade Phillips. They 0:19:57.280 --> 0:20:00.239 were a top ten past defense. But everybody else is 0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:04.240 I guess there's they're all borderline bottom ten. One is 0:20:04.240 --> 0:20:06.720 bottom eleven, but the rest are all bottom ten. Putting 0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:08.720 you on the spot here, Warren. So forgive me if 0:20:09.000 --> 0:20:10.680 we don't know the answer to this offhand, but I'm 0:20:10.680 --> 0:20:15.600 always fascinated by the team or teams that start out 0:20:15.680 --> 0:20:19.160 with a gauntlet schedule. Remember last year it was the Giants, 0:20:19.240 --> 0:20:21.800 who even if you were bullish on the Giants. What 0:20:21.800 --> 0:20:24.200 I would keep saying is, look at look at these 0:20:24.240 --> 0:20:27.879 strength of schedule stats from Warren, like their first seven 0:20:27.920 --> 0:20:30.200 to nine games, I can't remember exactly it was seven 0:20:30.240 --> 0:20:32.600 or nine. They're lucky. I think it was seven. And 0:20:32.640 --> 0:20:34.639 I kept saying they're lucky to come out of this 0:20:34.800 --> 0:20:37.639 two in five. Like, so even if they're even if 0:20:37.640 --> 0:20:40.399 they're better at football this year, like, they're dead in 0:20:40.480 --> 0:20:43.160 the water by mid season, no matter what it would 0:20:43.160 --> 0:20:45.280 seem by the schedule. Do you is there an equivalent 0:20:45.320 --> 0:20:49.679 to that this year? Uh? While the Open Raiders faced 0:20:49.960 --> 0:20:52.600 by far the most difficult schedule in the league to 0:20:52.720 --> 0:20:55.920