Speaker 1: Term check It Down Man, Now Down Man Thursday A
Speaker 1: twenty nine Teams of Seating the Book podcast It's Kill Alexander.
Speaker 1: Warren Sharp was on the show last episode of Tough
Speaker 1: Strength of Schedule right after the release of NFL season
Speaker 1: win totals at CG Technology, the first shop to release
Speaker 1: NFL season win totals for the season. Well, now we
Speaker 1: know who plays, who win. Time to dive deeper NFL
Speaker 1: Strength of Schedule two point oh with Warren Sharp on
Speaker 1: today's Beating the Book podcast. Enjoy This is a Number
Speaker 1: Game with Kil Alexander and broadcasting only on the Vegas
Speaker 1: Stats and Information Network and wabil gidiots will believe in analytics. Analytics,
Speaker 1: statistics and more are used to win wagers and Gil
Speaker 1: has every number you need to catch your tickets now
Speaker 1: live from the Visa in studios in the South Point
Speaker 1: Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander, our number two of
Speaker 1: the Numbers Game right here in Visa Vegas Stats and
Speaker 1: Information Network, Serious X of Channel two of four, Visa
Speaker 1: dot Com, the Visa Boobo TV, Sling TV as well
Speaker 1: Skill Alexander. Jeff Parls is here. Let's do a little
Speaker 1: football a little more than twenty four hours away now
Speaker 1: from the NFL Draft. We'll get into that with Pete
Speaker 1: Futech coming up momentarily his favorite draft props. First, though,
Speaker 1: the man himself, um not only uh, the guy who
Speaker 1: runs sharp football stats dot com, sharp football and elysis
Speaker 1: dot com and can be followed on Twitter at sharp football,
Speaker 1: but a gentleman who made his appearance in the action
Speaker 1: docuseries as well alongside our friend Bill Crackenburger is Warren
Speaker 1: Sharblay's gentlemen. Good morning to you, Warren, Hey, good morning Gil.
Speaker 1: How are you doing. I'm doing very well. How was
Speaker 1: that experience for you? By the way, the action series, um,
Speaker 1: I mean the the experience itself of the filming itself
Speaker 1: up at U up in New Jersey was was a
Speaker 1: good experience. Obviously, let me see crack again in person.
Speaker 1: We do a lot of our working during the season
Speaker 1: and off season over the phone, so it was good
Speaker 1: to see him in person and talk to him for
Speaker 1: a little bit. But uh, yeah, you know, as you know,
Speaker 1: because you were on the show, they filmed for like
Speaker 1: three hours and used like three minutes. But that's that's
Speaker 1: to be that's to be expected. Um So Yeah, a
Speaker 1: good overall experience sitting there with those guys Warren, that
Speaker 1: show biz. That's what they tell me. That's how that works. Apparently,
Speaker 1: before we get to uh, your strength of schedule comments,
Speaker 1: because I know you went on a on a torrent
Speaker 1: of strength of schedule tweets this morning, I want to
Speaker 1: talk to you about some interesting tweets you had. I
Speaker 1: found them interesting anyway. And I always say about you,
Speaker 1: as good as you are on game by game analysis,
Speaker 1: one of the things you're underrated for is your analysis
Speaker 1: of roster construction. And I found this Chief's Seahawks trade
Speaker 1: to be a very interesting prison through which to look
Speaker 1: at that. So the Chiefs released Justin Houston this offseason.
Speaker 1: They trade Dfour not because of ability, but because of
Speaker 1: money consideration and the fact that they are maybe saving
Speaker 1: up for some contracts they gotta they gotta worry about
Speaker 1: the future, most prominently perhaps Tyreek Hill. And we know
Speaker 1: how that goes now, uh. And then they're switching from
Speaker 1: a three four to a four three. And so with
Speaker 1: all of that sort of as a backdrop, yesterday the
Speaker 1: Chiefs um trade after trading d Fords in the Niners
Speaker 1: in the first round, they traded for a first round
Speaker 1: pick yesterday for Seattle's Frank Clark. Not only that, but
Speaker 1: they give Clark a five year contract sixty three point
Speaker 1: five million dollars guaranteed, though that guarantee number could prove
Speaker 1: to be smaller once we get full details here. But essentially,
Speaker 1: when you look at Ford's contract, he cost San Francisco
Speaker 1: just thirty three and a half million guaranteed. So it's
Speaker 1: not that the Chiefs believe Clark is worth d Ford
Speaker 1: plus the first round pick. They actually believe Clark is
Speaker 1: worth d Ford plus first round pick and thirty million dollars,
Speaker 1: basically what we're saying. But your prism here, I think
Speaker 1: is the smart one, which is looking at from the
Speaker 1: Seattle perspective with and here's your tweet, now, Warren with
Speaker 1: Russ under contract, Seattle gained four comp picks in next
Speaker 1: year's draft by letting guys walk, including a third and fourth.
Speaker 1: They couldn't pay Clark hundred five million dollars, so instead
Speaker 1: of a messy holdout, they got a first and second
Speaker 1: in return. That's how you stack the deck in your
Speaker 1: favor with a big money quarterback. Now the next tweet,
Speaker 1: and this is where I want you to to to
Speaker 1: go off on here, Warren is, we've talked about this
Speaker 1: you and I before, that you win Super Bowls either
Speaker 1: with a Hall of Fame quarterback or the Seattle way,
Speaker 1: the quarterback on a rookie contract. And you're suggesting here
Speaker 1: now that while Seattle sort of perfected that they may
Speaker 1: be perfecting a whole new thing here explained please, right,
Speaker 1: So there, they've got to figure out this brave new
Speaker 1: world for them, which is, how are we going to
Speaker 1: create a competitive roster with a quarterback that's taken up
Speaker 1: thirty million dollars of cap space a quarterback who we're
Speaker 1: paying was like a hundred sixty million over four years
Speaker 1: something along those lines. So, uh, it's uncharted territ tory
Speaker 1: for them and for any team in the league. If
Speaker 1: you look around the league, nobody's paying a quarterback as
Speaker 1: much as they're paying Russell Wilson. So uh, you know,
Speaker 1: some people are coming up, well, the Patriots were able
Speaker 1: to do this, and that well, the Patriots, like Tom
Speaker 1: Brady hasn't been inside the top ten and cap hit
Speaker 1: in a long time. So the Patriots and Bill Belichick
Speaker 1: don't have to worry about this problem. Seattle has to
Speaker 1: figure out, now, how are we going to win games
Speaker 1: with a quarterback taking up this much cap space? Because
Speaker 1: once CBA came along and they signed Russ and they
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, we're able to attack aggressively. They
Speaker 1: hit on a couple of drafts and they weren't paying
Speaker 1: their quarterback much so they could build the roster around him. Well,
Speaker 1: now you can't do that. You're in the exact obsituation situation.
Speaker 1: Um So, I believe what they are doing is letting
Speaker 1: their big money guys walk out the door instead of
Speaker 1: spending a bunch to resign these guys. You know, we'll
Speaker 1: see they don't have any very many draft picks this
Speaker 1: upcoming draft, so getting a couple of draft picks they
Speaker 1: got a first this year, they got a second next year,
Speaker 1: is valuable. So that's what this trade accomplished in part.
Speaker 1: Now they have two first round draft picks. The total
Speaker 1: first round draft picks the Seattle Seahawks had from two
Speaker 1: thousand thirteen to two eighteen was too that six years
Speaker 1: they had two first round draft picks in they have
Speaker 1: to now will they take one of those in trade
Speaker 1: down and try to bring in a few more players?
Speaker 1: Um As a result, possibly because they only had I
Speaker 1: think entering the trade four picks. But the end result
Speaker 1: is they need to build up their roster, which lost
Speaker 1: I means everybody defensively that was a well known household name,
Speaker 1: all the legion of Boom obviously has gone. They need
Speaker 1: to build up that roster. And you're not going to
Speaker 1: be able to build up a roster with fifth and
Speaker 1: sixth and seventh round draft picks and expect to hit
Speaker 1: on those. You need those top three to four round
Speaker 1: draft picks that have a much higher hit rate. Uh.
Speaker 1: And now they are going to have those with the
Speaker 1: first this year, with at next year, with a third
Speaker 1: and a fourth from comp Pics next year. So they
Speaker 1: have this arsenal, this incoming war chest of higher value
Speaker 1: draft picks that they're going to be able to turn
Speaker 1: into players. And all those players under the current c
Speaker 1: BA will have very cheap rookie deals. It will get
Speaker 1: them four years of of a cheaper salary that they
Speaker 1: can get excellent play out of them, presuming that they
Speaker 1: hit on these guys and that their higher round draft picks,
Speaker 1: which is what they've what they've accomplished in this trade.
Speaker 1: So from a chief's perspective Warren. And this is where
Speaker 1: I a full disclosure. I said to my producer Jeff
Speaker 1: before before the show, I said, here's where Warren, who
Speaker 1: is much smarter than me on these kinds of things,
Speaker 1: might disagree with me. But I texted my buddy yesterday
Speaker 1: who's also a keen football observer, and I said, from
Speaker 1: a Chief's perspective, I go, they got rid of Houston,
Speaker 1: they trade forward, and then they trade for Clark. They
Speaker 1: give up, They give up first, and they have to
Speaker 1: pay him all this money. I get it, they're going
Speaker 1: to a four three. I get it they're changing. But
Speaker 1: when you look at it like sort of big picture,
Speaker 1: doesn't this look like just poor gm NG. What am
Speaker 1: I missing here? Well, you know, the the Chiefs are
Speaker 1: in the same position that the Seahawks were several years
Speaker 1: ago when Russ was in his rookie deal. So they're
Speaker 1: in this position where much like the Philadelphia Eagles did
Speaker 1: and much like the l A. Rams did, they can
Speaker 1: bring on key impactful players because their quarterbacks not occupying
Speaker 1: a lot of the cap space and because they need
Speaker 1: those different makers. I think what they what they envisioned
Speaker 1: is with with Ford, for example, he can't play the
Speaker 1: end like their new defensive coordinator needs him to play,
Speaker 1: and they're switching schemes, and he's not going to be
Speaker 1: able to play with his hand in the ground, so
Speaker 1: they needed somebody who was going to be able to
Speaker 1: do that. And the run defense was terrible last year,
Speaker 1: and Ford is an upgrade on the run defensive perspective,
Speaker 1: So I I sort of understand why they made a
Speaker 1: move like this. UM I don't love spending a huge
Speaker 1: contract dollars, but if this guy is going to produce
Speaker 1: on the field and prove worthy of it, that's to
Speaker 1: be determined. So I can't say they're spending too much
Speaker 1: on him right now because I don't know what he's
Speaker 1: going to actually produce. He may very well earn all
Speaker 1: of that money. With the cap continuing to rise. With
Speaker 1: a quarterback on a rookie deal, it's not the end
Speaker 1: of the world to make a move like this, especially
Speaker 1: with the guys that have left your building, um and
Speaker 1: and the scheme that you want to implement. This guy
Speaker 1: is a great fit for it, So I don't think
Speaker 1: it's the worst thing in the world. I just think
Speaker 1: it's a it's a bigger win for the Seattle Seahawks
Speaker 1: with their projected future because they have the big money quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: how the hell were they going to build around and
Speaker 1: Will Boom. Here's a great way to do that. Avoid
Speaker 1: the messy hold out. Get these draft picks in there
Speaker 1: and be able to spend them. Hopefully they don't trade
Speaker 1: down too much. Hopefully they get a couple of good
Speaker 1: guys towards the top of the draft that will make
Speaker 1: an impact form. So I think it's a bigger win
Speaker 1: for where the Seahawks. I think it makes some sense
Speaker 1: for the Chiefs. The time will tell more than anything
Speaker 1: whether or not Clark earns that money. Yeah, all right,
Speaker 1: well Warren, let's uh. And by the way, of course,
Speaker 1: that doesn't even get into a whole discussion of you know,
Speaker 1: they they let Hunt go and they decided to believe
Speaker 1: in Hill, and that's a whole another discussion for another day.
Speaker 1: As far as strength of schedule goes, you and I
Speaker 1: talked a few weeks ago when we when season win
Speaker 1: totals first came out at CG Technology. It was the
Speaker 1: first time we could look through that prism at your
Speaker 1: way of analyzing strength of schedule for the upcoming NFL season. Now,
Speaker 1: we know who's playing who when we have the week
Speaker 1: by week schedule, and so this produces a whole another
Speaker 1: sort of torrent of comments from you. Where would you
Speaker 1: like to start on this, Well, I think the first
Speaker 1: place to start. You know, a lot of people question
Speaker 1: the usefulness and the utility of analyzing strength of schedule
Speaker 1: this time of year because they have heard me in
Speaker 1: the past say that using last year's win lass record
Speaker 1: is moronic, but they haven't fully bought into using future
Speaker 1: forecast and strength of schedule at this time in April.
Speaker 1: What what's the point? These teams are different than they
Speaker 1: were last year, and I think that's a great place
Speaker 1: to start, because yes, they are different, but there is
Speaker 1: a correlation element here that we can utilize and gain
Speaker 1: some utility from looking back at last year's schedule and
Speaker 1: examining what the team is going to face this upcoming here.
Speaker 1: One of the interesting things that obviously the way that
Speaker 1: I look at strength of schedule first and foremost if
Speaker 1: you're looking at total schedule, is I like to look
Speaker 1: at uh season win totals of their opponents, so we
Speaker 1: can get a better understanding of the overall quality of
Speaker 1: this opponents schedule. In twenty nineteen based on what we
Speaker 1: think these teams are going to be like in There's
Speaker 1: another way you can look at it, which is kind
Speaker 1: of like looking at all the efficiency metrics from eighteen
Speaker 1: and pushing them into twenty nineteen. And by that, I
Speaker 1: mean you can look at what a team is going
Speaker 1: to face in terms of past defenses in just by
Speaker 1: looking at first cut, what do they face in two?
Speaker 1: What are the defenses rank in that they're playing in. Now,
Speaker 1: it's not a perfect world, but there is a correlation.
Speaker 1: There's zero point three. Three is the correlation factor that
Speaker 1: it correlates from year over year over the last five years.
Speaker 1: And uh net and net takeaway on all of this
Speaker 1: is that when I look at strength of schedule based
Speaker 1: on wind totals, which is kind of the thing I
Speaker 1: came up with six seven years ago, whatever it was,
Speaker 1: and you look at the strength of schedule based on
Speaker 1: efficiency of these opponents, what I found is that twenty
Speaker 1: of the thirty two teams actually have a forecast twenty
Speaker 1: nineteen strength of schedule by the two different methods that
Speaker 1: are within three position ranks. For instance, the New England
Speaker 1: Patriots based on wind totals, I showed them having the
Speaker 1: easiest schedule this upcoming year based on opponent efficiency, I
Speaker 1: showed them having a thirty the easiest schedule. That's a
Speaker 1: comparison there too. It changes between from one to three
Speaker 1: at the variants of two. Most of these teams in
Speaker 1: the league are within three ranking spots, which tells me
Speaker 1: that these two methods that I'm using are very consistent
Speaker 1: and interchangeable for the most part. The key with strength
Speaker 1: of schedules always looking at those extremes. So there are
Speaker 1: some teams like the Cleveland Browns of the Pittsburgh Steelers
Speaker 1: who based on wind totals have a much easier schedule
Speaker 1: than what efficiency ends up forecasting for them. And there's
Speaker 1: a team in particular, Carolina Panthers, who based on wind
Speaker 1: totals has a much more difficult schedule than what they do.
Speaker 1: But when you look at their schedule based on efficiency,
Speaker 1: So I think the underlying thing is just looking at
Speaker 1: is their utility in discussing strength of schedule And the
Speaker 1: answer is yes. And there's multiple methods to use strength
Speaker 1: of schedule where you're looking at efficiency or wind totals,
Speaker 1: But what you definitely don't want to do is look
Speaker 1: at win loss and look at those six team games
Speaker 1: just from a win loss binomial perspective, and then forecast
Speaker 1: strength of schedule from this, because that is lazy if
Speaker 1: nothing else, that's for sure. And you point out in
Speaker 1: your tweet here the first one of your strength of
Speaker 1: schedule tweets that based on total efficiency comparing strength of
Speaker 1: schedule faced in versus last year, the schedules that ease
Speaker 1: the most would be UH Cincinnati, Buffalo, Cleveland, Philly, Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: And the schedules to get the hardest the Texans, the Bears,
Speaker 1: the Colts, the Packers, and the Falcons all there at
Speaker 1: Sharp Football from Warren Sharp Warren, let's take a brief
Speaker 1: break here. I want to come back and want to
Speaker 1: talk to you about because I'm involved in something that
Speaker 1: is dynamic, a sort of stock market of NFL teams
Speaker 1: where you can buy and sell as a as a
Speaker 1: year goes on. So I'm always very curious as to
Speaker 1: what schedules get hard at the end, what may start
Speaker 1: out easier. We'll get into that next with Warren right
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Speaker 1: hundred gambler points Bet Stay Sharp speaking to Sharp Warren
Speaker 1: Sharp here on the show on a numbers game. Kind
Speaker 1: enough to join us uh this morning for a little
Speaker 1: strength of schedule two point oh talk and you can
Speaker 1: follow him at sharp Football on Twitter and Warren. Once
Speaker 1: folks go to Sharp Football, they can go to your
Speaker 1: Twitter to look at all this stuff, or they can
Speaker 1: go to sharp football Stats for all the visuals. Yeah,
Speaker 1: everything's up at Sharp football stats interactive visuals that lets
Speaker 1: you choose up to thirty five different metrics that you
Speaker 1: can view a team's schedule like visually week by week
Speaker 1: looking at their opponents that are face based on what
Speaker 1: those rank UM. And you can find it if you
Speaker 1: go under the offensive menu down at strength of schedule
Speaker 1: at the bottom of that. I also lifted for defensive
Speaker 1: strength of schedule as well, so in case you want
Speaker 1: to look at what do what offenses is a defense
Speaker 1: going to face? And a lot of people like to
Speaker 1: use this for fantasy football information, but as we both know,
Speaker 1: this type of information is obviously very important for sports
Speaker 1: betting as well. For sports betting as well for some
Speaker 1: of the vehicles that I that I'm betting. In your
Speaker 1: your last couple of tweets, I want to get to
Speaker 1: because the second last one from this morning that is
Speaker 1: UM talking about just what you were just saying right there,
Speaker 1: which is about offensive strength of schedule weeks one through six.
Speaker 1: You just happen to put out that visual right here,
Speaker 1: and what you're saying is the Ravens run game could
Speaker 1: smash early in the season. That's one of the headlines. Yeah, Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's definitely a way that you're going to be able
Speaker 1: to use this information to try to help forecast, um,
Speaker 1: you know, how how good a team could be based
Speaker 1: on different units of the ball early in the season.
Speaker 1: I think we both know getting out the gates early
Speaker 1: is something that a lot of teams is very important
Speaker 1: to get started on the right track. And you know,
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens face a tremendously easy schedule of opposing defenses,
Speaker 1: especially run defenses, to start the season. Based upon their
Speaker 1: rank in uh, they're gonna face in succession, the Miami Dolphins,
Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Cleveland Browns,
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Since that I Bengles, five
Speaker 1: of those six teams rank bottom ten last season in
Speaker 1: terms of run defensive ficiency. The Steelers were the only
Speaker 1: team that ranked above the bottom ten. So they're gonna
Speaker 1: be in a very situation. Is going to help Lamar
Speaker 1: Jackson out because yeah, he does struggle to throw the
Speaker 1: football a little bit. Their passing game is not that dynamic,
Speaker 1: and so they'll be able to sort of ease into
Speaker 1: that probably a little bit in by the fact that
Speaker 1: they're going to be able to rely a lot on.
Speaker 1: They're very aggressive and difficult to defend run attacks, so
Speaker 1: that's something that they're going to happen at the edge four.
Speaker 1: It's also interesting to note that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Speaker 1: will face the easiest schedule of opposing past defenses in
Speaker 1: twent nineteen, and as we both know, we've got Bruce
Speaker 1: Arians moving down to Tampa Bay. Yes, they lost to
Speaker 1: Sean Jackson. The Bruce Arians running his offense down in
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay should be interesting for us when we're examining
Speaker 1: some of the past defenses that they're going to go
Speaker 1: up against the start the upcoming season. The only one
Speaker 1: that's really difficult in that mix from last year at
Speaker 1: least was the l A Rams under Wade Phillips. They
Speaker 1: were a top ten past defense. But everybody else is
Speaker 1: I guess there's they're all borderline bottom ten. One is
Speaker 1: bottom eleven, but the rest are all bottom ten. Putting
Speaker 1: you on the spot here, Warren. So forgive me if
Speaker 1: we don't know the answer to this offhand, but I'm
Speaker 1: always fascinated by the team or teams that start out
Speaker 1: with a gauntlet schedule. Remember last year it was the Giants,
Speaker 1: who even if you were bullish on the Giants. What
Speaker 1: I would keep saying is, look at look at these
Speaker 1: strength of schedule stats from Warren, like their first seven
Speaker 1: to nine games, I can't remember exactly it was seven
Speaker 1: or nine. They're lucky. I think it was seven. And
Speaker 1: I kept saying they're lucky to come out of this
Speaker 1: two in five. Like, so even if they're even if
Speaker 1: they're better at football this year, like, they're dead in
Speaker 1: the water by mid season, no matter what it would
Speaker 1: seem by the schedule. Do you is there an equivalent
Speaker 1: to that this year? Uh? While the Open Raiders faced
Speaker 1: by far the most difficult schedule in the league to
Speaker 1: start the season, Um, if you look at who they play,
Speaker 1: they've got to go up against the demo Broncos, Kansas
Speaker 1: City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, UH, Indianapolis Colts, and Chicago Bears.
Speaker 1: Obviously the Denver Broncos, a team that is a decent
Speaker 1: team but not really playoff contention probably this upcoming season.
Speaker 1: But all of those other teams certainly are slated to
Speaker 1: make the playoffs this upcoming year, and three of the
Speaker 1: four made the playoffs last year, So no team faces
Speaker 1: a more difficult schedule over the first they have a
Speaker 1: bye week six, but over the first six weeks, nobody
Speaker 1: faces a more difficult schedule UM, but they overall have
Speaker 1: a very difficult schedule. Difficult schedule to begin with UM,
Speaker 1: just if you're looking at their overall schedules, So they're
Speaker 1: not a team that's suddenly their schedule is going to
Speaker 1: get a lot easier, but they are a team that
Speaker 1: is going to get that whose schedule is going to
Speaker 1: get a lot UM is going to be difficult just
Speaker 1: off the jump. A team like the Houston Texas is
Speaker 1: another team who's got a very difficult overall schedule. They
Speaker 1: got a very difficult schedule to start the season. I
Speaker 1: think a team that's UH in the mix that is
Speaker 1: going to get a lot easier after the first early
Speaker 1: flight UM is the UH Detroit Lions. That's a team
Speaker 1: who starts off much more difficult, but whose schedule is
Speaker 1: going to increase tremendously down the stretch. UM. And a
Speaker 1: team like the Indianapolis Colts as well, UH their schedule.
Speaker 1: They don't have an easy schedule this year, but to
Speaker 1: start the season, they've got one of the I think
Speaker 1: it's the fifth toughest schedule in the league. And then
Speaker 1: it does lighten up a little bit after that. This
Speaker 1: is such a great information for those of us who
Speaker 1: have some other types of gambling vehicles. We were betting
Speaker 1: teams dynamically through the season. It's good to know the
Speaker 1: ebbs and flows of those schedules. And we close here
Speaker 1: Warren with your your most recent tweet, which is isolating
Speaker 1: the final six weeks of the schedule. Let's sort of
Speaker 1: reverse this now. And this is great for Pete, for people,
Speaker 1: among other things, who like to bet, say futures, you know,
Speaker 1: midway through the season. This is very helpful to know
Speaker 1: what are the schedules, at least for projected playoffs teams. Anyway,
Speaker 1: you have those isolated here. What are those of those
Speaker 1: projected playoff teams? Who has an easy stretch light, who
Speaker 1: has a tougher stretch late? And you've got the Rams, Steelers, Eagles, Browns, Falcons, Packers,
Speaker 1: and Ravens among the uh the teams with the easy
Speaker 1: push and then uh no, no good news here for
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, the Vikings, the Niners, the Chargers, or the Panthers.
Speaker 1: Love this stuff. Yeah, and I think the Atlanta Falcons
Speaker 1: are an interesting team to discuss because they have the Overall,
Speaker 1: their schedule is not an easy schedule. They've got a
Speaker 1: bottom tent schedule in terms of the most difficult schedule,
Speaker 1: but they do close the season at least over the
Speaker 1: last six weeks. They get the Bucks twice, they get
Speaker 1: the forty Niners, they get the Jaguars, we'll we'll see
Speaker 1: what the Jaguars look like with Nick foles um. And
Speaker 1: then they get the Panthers and the Saints, two divisional opponents,
Speaker 1: good decent opponents, but both of those games are in Atlanta.
Speaker 1: During that stretch of six games, they also host three
Speaker 1: consecutive games. They play all of their division opponents in
Speaker 1: consecutive weeks in Atlanta Week twelve the Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
Speaker 1: Week thirteen, the New Orleans Saints, in Week fourteen the
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers. They only have two road games. They also
Speaker 1: get to host that unfamiliar opponent in Jacksonville. Uh that
Speaker 1: that unfamiliar opponent of Jacksonville in Atlanta. So those all
Speaker 1: are very beneficial for the Atlanta Falcons, and the first
Speaker 1: part of their schedule is one of the more difficult
Speaker 1: in the NFL. So that's a team to be aware of,
Speaker 1: especially if they start off slow, they're not doing well
Speaker 1: of a team that could catch up on those wind
Speaker 1: total bets later in the season, or could offer some
Speaker 1: type of in season value if you like what they're
Speaker 1: doing but they're just losing some close games. War and
Speaker 1: I lied, I have one more question. I know you're
Speaker 1: not a NFL draft nick, where you're like, oh, this
Speaker 1: guy should go here, and this guy should go there,
Speaker 1: or you're doing mock drafts, but I'd be remiss if
Speaker 1: I didn't ask you on your way out here, just
Speaker 1: as a sort of general statement from from your vantage point,
Speaker 1: do you have a draft pet Peeve? Do you have
Speaker 1: something that you look for when you observe an NFL draft?
Speaker 1: What's like your big headline? Every year? It's difficult to
Speaker 1: really say who wins and loses these things. I think
Speaker 1: it's very easy for people to come out and suggest
Speaker 1: that they know, but we really don't know how these
Speaker 1: players are going to turn out. What I don't like
Speaker 1: is teams that go and reach for players to fit
Speaker 1: a certain scheme, to fit a certain mold of what
Speaker 1: they're looking for. Instead, I think they more teams should
Speaker 1: be going out and getting guys that are capable of
Speaker 1: winning in the rules that are constructed for the modern
Speaker 1: football and then adjusting the way that they build their team,
Speaker 1: call their plays, et cetera, around the strengths of who
Speaker 1: they have on their roster. I'm not saying, go best
Speaker 1: player available every single pick that you're taking, but there's
Speaker 1: far too many teams that are going to reach in
Speaker 1: the first second round of the draft for certain players
Speaker 1: because of perceived needs or desires to fit certain mold,
Speaker 1: and they're really giving up value and passing up opportunity
Speaker 1: to take players. And they just need their coach to say, look,
Speaker 1: I'll coach this guy slightly different. Now, call slightly different
Speaker 1: plays on this side of the ball, and then they
Speaker 1: would be able to incorporate better players on the field.
Speaker 1: Uh if they utilize that strategy. Imagine that Warren absolutely
Speaker 1: conforming your game plans to the strength of your own personnel.
Speaker 1: As a guy who grew up on Joe gibbson d C,
Speaker 1: I say a big amen to that who won three
Speaker 1: Super Bowls basically adjusting to the different personnel that he had.
Speaker 1: Warren Sharp at sharp football on Twitter. That's where sort
Speaker 1: of acts as a gateway to all of his other stuff,
Speaker 1: Sharp football stats. Shart Football Analysis dot Com. Warren appreciated
Speaker 1: as always, will put it in podcast for and for
Speaker 1: those who didn't miss who weren't able to hear the
Speaker 1: whole thing. I appreciate it man. Thanks Jill Warren sharp
Speaker 1: best in a big bo