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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Gloomberg to Washington, d C,

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Speaker 1: bloom to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hundreds to San Francisco, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: to the Country Series Exam Channel one nine and around

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Speaker 1: the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Bloomberg dot Com. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good Marian Tony A, Michael McKee along

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Speaker 1: with David Gara in for Time King Today. Our economic

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Speaker 1: indicators are brought to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. When

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Speaker 1: it's time to change the conversation, talk with the broker

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Speaker 1: dealer r I A that's ready to listen called six

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Speaker 1: six four six two three six three eight or is

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Speaker 1: it Commonwealth dot com to learn more? A lot of

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Speaker 1: numbers out right. Now, here's what we have so far.

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Speaker 1: The Employment cost Index. This is a first quarter number

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Speaker 1: of six tenths of a percent. That's a tenth higher

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Speaker 1: than the revised number for the fourth quarter of the year.

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Speaker 1: Personal income for March, the final month of the quarter,

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Speaker 1: up four tenths of a percent. That's double the initially

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Speaker 1: reported amount in the first quarter, which was revised down

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Speaker 1: to one tenth, and it is more than the economist

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Speaker 1: forecasts of three tents personal spending up just a tenth

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Speaker 1: though that matches the the unrevised number from the month

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Speaker 1: of February, which has now been revised to two tents.

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Speaker 1: So he had a decline in the rate of increase

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Speaker 1: in spending, a decline in the rate of UH an

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Speaker 1: increase in the rate of increase in personal income. The

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Speaker 1: inflation numbers now the PC deflator, these are the numbers

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Speaker 1: that the Fed watches, is up a tenth of a percent,

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Speaker 1: which pushes the PC annual rate of inflation to eight

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Speaker 1: tenths of a percent. That is down from the prior month.

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Speaker 1: And we have the PC core up a tenth and

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Speaker 1: the core rate one point six percent, which is unchanged.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of numbers out this morning, and now

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Speaker 1: we're getting the Chevron numbers. First quarter loss per share

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Speaker 1: of thirty nine cents, much worse than the eighteen cents

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Speaker 1: that had been forecast by analysts. So Chevron does not

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Speaker 1: do what Excellon did, which was coming better than expectations

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Speaker 1: uh of. Chevron reports at first quarter loss of seven

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five million dollars. I want to bring

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Speaker 1: in Paul Mortimer Lean now he is global head of

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Speaker 1: Market Economics at b MP pair about have him react

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Speaker 1: to some of the numbers. Mike was just going through

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Speaker 1: and Paul, let's start with those inflation numbers first and

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Speaker 1: what you make of them. Yeah, I mean, I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure the inflation numbers of a whole of news in them. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, PC coll pretty subdued of the tenth maybe

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Speaker 1: a bit bit softer than the people were hoping. And

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Speaker 1: you know, the FED wants to see something up close

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Speaker 1: to two tents so um. And the thing that really

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Speaker 1: struck me was the personal expendit shore of only attempts

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Speaker 1: because you know, the e comedies be running on the

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Speaker 1: house old sector for quite some time because investments soft,

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Speaker 1: exports are soft, and now the consumers soft, and that's

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Speaker 1: pretty bad news for the phone. I think that's the

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Speaker 1: standout feature of these set of numbers. Well, when you're

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Speaker 1: talking about a March number, obviously we're looking in the

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Speaker 1: rear view mirror and oil prices have gone up significantly

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Speaker 1: since then. So how much weight do you put on

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Speaker 1: the inflation numbers from March? Yeah, I mean, I mean,

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Speaker 1: what you know, I look at the core numbers. I

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Speaker 1: think that's important for the FED, but for half of

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Speaker 1: its mandate the PC headlineer for eight tenths um. I

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Speaker 1: mean that is that's also important, and that's going to

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Speaker 1: go up further, and that's really really important because you know,

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Speaker 1: wages are not picking up that much, and so we've

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Speaker 1: what we've got is we've got prices picking up and

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Speaker 1: wages aren't, and that's going to reinforce the fact real

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Speaker 1: spending by the consumer is probably gonna slow something. And

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Speaker 1: that's that's the concern I have about the economy that

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Speaker 1: we're seeing the consumers slow off even before we've seen

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Speaker 1: higher gas prices crimp personal income and leave less for

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Speaker 1: for the fun stuff to buy. Of course, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: hear a little bit later from the every sub Michigan

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Speaker 1: consumer sentiment numbers talk a bit about how oil prices

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Speaker 1: are are playing into all of us. Well, I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, oil prices overall, I mean, I'm not quite

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Speaker 1: sure whether the recent pot we've seen is sustainable or not,

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Speaker 1: but certainly what we've got is a big boosting demand

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Speaker 1: in China, and we're seeing that the Chinese monetary expansion

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Speaker 1: feed through two energy prices overall. The weaker dollar is

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Speaker 1: also important in boosting commodity prices, including oil, and as

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Speaker 1: those oil prices come up, then we're going to see

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Speaker 1: higher headline inflation. I don't think the call will will move.

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Speaker 1: Headline inflation will move up, and that will take income

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Speaker 1: out of consumers pockets and leave left income to spend

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Speaker 1: on things that move the economy forward. Really, and that's

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Speaker 1: I think even the market looks for oil prices and say, ah,

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Speaker 1: this is good news. And the reason for that is that, ohio,

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Speaker 1: ol prices are seen as kind of risk one phenomenon.

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Speaker 1: So fil prices are going up, that must mean that

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Speaker 1: global demands better. That's true. But higher oil prices are

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Speaker 1: good for producers, but they're not good for consumers. And

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Speaker 1: the US is predominantly a consumer of oil, and so

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Speaker 1: it's it's um. I think it's slightly concerning that the

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Speaker 1: consumer is already weak before oil prices move up that much,

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Speaker 1: before gasoline prices at the pump move up. Well, we've

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Speaker 1: been talking for some time about how consumers didn't seem

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Speaker 1: to be really spending their gasoline price dividend. Well, I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure that that's true because if you look at

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Speaker 1: the savings ratio, so the proportion of income that consumers spend,

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Speaker 1: it's been pretty flat. If consumers hadn't been spending it,

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Speaker 1: then that savings ratio would have been going on. The

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Speaker 1: fact is that the rate of increase of real incomes

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Speaker 1: of the consumer in the US has been decelerating for

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Speaker 1: some time, and that's why consumer spending has been decelerating. Now.

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Speaker 1: I've got to say it's decelerated a bit faster than

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Speaker 1: most people would have expected. But you know, the FED

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Speaker 1: story that we saw in the statement that consumer income

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Speaker 1: remains solid, it's not that true. Um, you know, I

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Speaker 1: think they're over exaggerating. I think it has been solid

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Speaker 1: in the past, but it's decelerating now, and I think

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Speaker 1: the FED is probably worried. All right. Paul more and

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Speaker 1: more Lee is our guest. He is the global head

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Speaker 1: of Market economics and chief economists for North America for

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Speaker 1: a B in p Paraba, US personal income up four tenths,

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Speaker 1: personal spending up a tenth, the PC deflator up a tenth.

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Speaker 1: In the core rate year over year one point six

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Speaker 1: percent higher. In March, this hour, surveillance is but to

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Speaker 1: you by Vobo Cars, White Planes. Visit Vobo Cars, White

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Speaker 1: Planes dot Com. Here's Michael bar with the latest news

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Speaker 1: headlines Mike David, thank you very much. The presidential campaigns

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Speaker 1: have headed West. Police and Orange County, California push demonstrators

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Speaker 1: away when protesters got a rowdy after a Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: campaign appearance. Police cars were damaged and one Trump supporter

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Speaker 1: had his face bloodied in the scuffle as he tried

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Speaker 1: to drive out of the arena. About twenty people were arrested. Yesterday,

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Speaker 1: Ohio Governor John Kasik told a rally in Portland, Oregon,

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Speaker 1: he's staying in the race after a talk with his wife.

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Speaker 1: If I can be a voice that's different than what

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Speaker 1: we hear in the political circles today, I will have

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Speaker 1: had a victory, be as I have a victory every

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Speaker 1: single day. Vice President Joe Biden asked foreign governments and

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Speaker 1: drug companies to join the US endeavor to share data

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Speaker 1: and resources to speed the development of new cancer treatments.

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Speaker 1: Biden is in Rome for a Vatican conference on a

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Speaker 1: regenerative medicine. Last year, Biden lost his son Bo to cancer.

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Speaker 1: The Vice President also met with Pope Francis today. Syrian

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Speaker 1: state media say rebels have Sheldon Mosk in the government

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Speaker 1: held area of the northern city of Aleppo. Killing at

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Speaker 1: least fifteen people and wounding thirty others. Global News twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours a day, powered by our twenty four hundred

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Speaker 1: journalists and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus from

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Speaker 1: around the world. I'm Michael Barr, Mike David. Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Time now for the Bloomberg NBC Sports update. Here is

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Speaker 1: John stesshow Thanks Mike Pirst, Brandy. The NFL Draft in Chicago,

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Speaker 1: three quarterbacks were taken and all three teams moved up

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Speaker 1: from the draft to get their guy. Ohio State led

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Speaker 1: the way with five players taken last night. Old miss

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Speaker 1: had three. There were seven offensive line and seventh defensive linement.

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Speaker 1: It all began with the Los Angeles Rams, who had

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Speaker 1: swung the trade with Tennessee as expected, taking Cal quarterback

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Speaker 1: Jared Goff and other QB Carson Winston. North Dakota State followed.

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Speaker 1: He's headed to Philadelphia. Joey Bosa was the first of

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Speaker 1: the five Buckeyes off the board, taking third overall by

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Speaker 1: San Diego, and both the Giants and Jets also took

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Speaker 1: defensive players from Ohio's faith. The Giants cornerback Eli Apple

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Speaker 1: with the tenth pick. The Jets ten picks later, Linebacker

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Speaker 1: Darren Lee Miami at thirteen took the first of three

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Speaker 1: from Ole Miss tackle Laramie Tunsel, who was once projected

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Speaker 1: to go first overall, his free fall last night due

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Speaker 1: to a video that surfaced on his Twitter account showing

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Speaker 1: him smoking marijuana while wearing a gas mask. Man, somebody

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Speaker 1: hacked my account. I don't know who it is. I

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Speaker 1: don't know how it happened. You know, I made a mistake, man,

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Speaker 1: that was years ago, and somehow they got my photos

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Speaker 1: and hacked it on my accounts. Teammate Robert kim d

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Speaker 1: j also at off field issues, was taken late first

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Speaker 1: round by Arizona Denver need of a quarterback with the

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Speaker 1: gar ever it off Peyton Manning and the free engine

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Speaker 1: departure Brock Costs while they moved up and grabbed Memphiss

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Speaker 1: Paxton Lynch. NBA plotofs at Landa advances win in Game

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Speaker 1: six at Boston one two, NHL Washington four three and

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Speaker 1: overtime over Pittsburgh. T j Osh capped the hat trick

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Speaker 1: with the game winner. D Gorgon. The Miami Marlins, who

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Speaker 1: live in National League and hitting last season, suspended eighty

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Speaker 1: games for using p E d s. Mets and Yankees

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Speaker 1: were off. The Mets will go for a seventh straight

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Speaker 1: win tonight they host the Giants. The Yankees are in

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Speaker 1: Boston with the Bloomberg NBC Sports Up. I'm John Stahow.

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Speaker 1: Thank you John. We're continuing to follow a an up

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Speaker 1: and down market right now. Stock six hundred in Europe

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Speaker 1: is down by five points one point four and in

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Speaker 1: the U S it's the same. For SNP futures, they're

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Speaker 1: off six points. We'll call it, but that's only a

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Speaker 1: three tenths percent decline. Chevron earnings disappoint Excen earnings s

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Speaker 1: better than expected. We'll see what it means for the

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Speaker 1: markets ahead. Bloomberg Surveillance is brought to you by Bentley University.

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Speaker 1: a day, at Bloomberg dot com, the Radio plus mobile app,

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Speaker 1: and on your radio. This is a Bloomberg Business Flash

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Speaker 1: and good morning. I'm John Tucker with US a Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: business flash being brought to you by Sector Spider e

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Speaker 1: t F s Y by a single stock when you

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Speaker 1: can invest in the entire sector because its sector s

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Speaker 1: P d RS dot Com or called one six six

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Speaker 1: sector et F. Some breaking news across the Bloomberg right now,

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Speaker 1: Benovation is rejecting Santa fees unsolicited proposal. Also got some

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Speaker 1: earnings today from the oil majors Chevron Corporation reporting a

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Speaker 1: loss of seven hundred and twenty five million dollars. That

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Speaker 1: works at the thirty nine cents of per deluded to

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Speaker 1: share for the first quarter of twenties sixteen. Analysts we're

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Speaker 1: looking for an eighteen cents loss, so it was a

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Speaker 1: much bigger than what they had anticipated. Also earlier, Excellent

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Speaker 1: Mobile posting its weakest quarterly profit more than in a decade,

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Speaker 1: first quarter net income falling to forty three cents share,

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Speaker 1: but the per share result there was fifteen cents above

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Speaker 1: the twenty cent to average estimate of analysts. It at

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Survey and we had to economic news a few

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Speaker 1: minutes ago. Worker pay of the US rose as forecast

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Speaker 1: in the first quarter. Six tenths of represented advance in

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Speaker 1: the employment cost the index when the prior three months

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Speaker 1: followed a half repercent increase in the fourth quarter is

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Speaker 1: actually smaller than previously estimated years of employment gains. It

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Speaker 1: led to only gradual pay increases. The bottom line there.

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Speaker 1: Ahead of the market open on Wall Street, S ANDP

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Speaker 1: futures down seven seven points. That's a down three tenths

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Speaker 1: of a percent. The DWAL futures down fifty five, that's

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Speaker 1: down three tenths a vance. Decicate futures down a twenty points.

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Speaker 1: That's down about a half a percent. You're today one

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Speaker 1: fourteen one. Same dollar weakness again, one oh seven twenty two.

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Speaker 1: That's a little stronger right now. That's about eight tenths

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Speaker 1: of a percent. Nime X screwed up thirty six at

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Speaker 1: forty six dollars thirty nine cents barrel. We check the

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Speaker 1: markets for you every fifteen minutes during the trading day

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Speaker 1: right here on Bloomberg Radio. And back to you, Michael

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Speaker 1: and David. All right, thank you very much, John Tucker,

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Speaker 1: it is on Wall Street. The following is from Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: View opinions in commentary from Bloomberg columnists. I'm Peru, a

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Speaker 1: columnist for Bloomberg View. Emmett Rensen wants his fellow liberals

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Speaker 1: to stop being so condescending. In an essay for Vox,

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Speaker 1: he despects what he calls the smug style of American liberalism,

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Speaker 1: a style that attributes disagreement with liberalism to stupidity and ignorance,

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Speaker 1: and response to that disagreement with mockery. It delights in evidence, however, dubious,

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Speaker 1: that liberals are intellectually superior to conservatives. Renson believes that

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Speaker 1: this style is weak into liberalism by alienating poor and

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Speaker 1: working class white voters. He's right that it would be

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Speaker 1: better to show these voters some respect, even better that

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Speaker 1: it would be if liberals consider that their opponents might

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Speaker 1: occasionally be right on some issues, even if they are rural,

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Speaker 1: working class whites. Rensen believes the liberals were wrong to

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Speaker 1: rig kill Kim Davis, Kentucky's most famous county clerk. What's

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Speaker 1: more important, though, is that she had a point. Her

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Speaker 1: jobs shouldn't have required her to act contrary or conscience.

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Speaker 1: Conservatives have now changed the law to make this possible

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Speaker 1: without harming anyone. The great virtue that contemporary liberalism relax

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Speaker 1: and needs is neither civility nor solidarity. It's humility, and sadly,

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Speaker 1: even some of liberalism's most thoughtful internal critics can't see it.

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Speaker 1: I'm Panuru. For more view please go to Bloomberg View

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Speaker 1: dot com or view go on the Bloomberg terminal. This

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Speaker 1: has been Bloomberg View. Bloomberg View commentaries can be heard

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Speaker 1: hourly weekday on Bloomberg Radio. This is Bob Savante, Might

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Speaker 1: col McKee along with David Garris sitting in today for

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Speaker 1: Tom Keene and David. We're watching the body politic. Uh

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Speaker 1: rot A little bit um. Unfortunately, another ugly scene out

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Speaker 1: in California yesterday as Donald Trump holds he holds a

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Speaker 1: rally um, a lot of bad things said about immigrants,

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Speaker 1: and then a lot of protesters outside and got a

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Speaker 1: little violence. Yeah, unfortunately. Uh. Brett Air is the host

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Speaker 1: of Fox News Special Report, and of course you can

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Speaker 1: hear Fox News Sunday here on Bloomberg Radio every Sunday

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Speaker 1: o'clock and at two o'clock you keep up with all

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Speaker 1: the latest from the opinion thought leaders on what's left

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Speaker 1: of the body politic. And I sort of say that, Brett,

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Speaker 1: because it it does seem for a while the campaign

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Speaker 1: was was weird. Now it seems to be getting ugly. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: good morning. Um. There have been a few events that

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Speaker 1: have definitely gone over um overboard, and they have um,

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Speaker 1: you know, the the anger um on both sides is

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Speaker 1: actually is real. Some of those protests are manufactured by

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Speaker 1: obviously people who are opposed to Donald Trump to begin with,

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Speaker 1: but some of it is stirred up and uh, it's

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Speaker 1: a real problem out on out on the trail. I

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Speaker 1: think we're going to see a bumpy road, uh to Cleveland.

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Speaker 1: But I think Donald Trump is in a position to

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Speaker 1: to sew it up to get to the majority twelve

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Speaker 1: thirty seven. Uh, delgates needed before you get to July

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Speaker 1: A teams sticking with California here as somebody who wrote

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Speaker 1: for his college newspaper. I was very excited to see

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Speaker 1: this article in the Stanford Daily. Amused by the headline, which,

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Speaker 1: in classic college newspaper fashion, did not two more than

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Speaker 1: literally tell you what it happened. John Baynard talks election

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Speaker 1: time in office. But John Baynard went to Stanford University,

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Speaker 1: did a conversation with a history professor there, uh and

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Speaker 1: made some shall we say, frank comments about Ted Cruz. Uh.

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Speaker 1: What did you make of this, Brett and and the

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Speaker 1: effect it's having here, the backdrop being here of course

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Speaker 1: Ted Cruise naming Carl Furia to be his running mate. Yeah. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think John Bayner's filter is gone, and uh, he's

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Speaker 1: freewheeling outside of Washington. He was asked about the GOP race.

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Speaker 1: He said Donald Trump was a golf and texting buddy

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Speaker 1: and then said, uh, Ted Cruz is Lucifer in the flesh,

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Speaker 1: and um said he's a miserable s ob to work with.

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Speaker 1: And uh, I think that for Ted Cruz on the

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Speaker 1: campaign and this environment is not a bad thing to

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Speaker 1: have establishment John Bran Bayinner talking about it like that, Uh,

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Speaker 1: and Cruiz is trying to turn it around and use

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Speaker 1: it as he's the outsider who's who's pushing the establishment. Um.

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Speaker 1: But on the in Washington, I think you know, you

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Speaker 1: have others like Peter King out this morning saying, um,

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Speaker 1: it makes Lucifer look good. And I think you have

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Speaker 1: a lot of people who's filter is gone in this

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Speaker 1: election and that feel compelled to talk about Well, it's

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Speaker 1: suggest that um Republicans are are making their peace with

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Speaker 1: Trump as nominee in whatever kind of peace Uh, they can.

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Speaker 1: David Brooks fascinating column today, of course, the conservative writer, uh,

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Speaker 1: columnist for the New York Times. He calls it a

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Speaker 1: Joe McCarthy moment. People will be judged by where they

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Speaker 1: stood at this time. Those who walked with Trump will

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Speaker 1: be tainted forever. Uh. How does that jibe with the

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Speaker 1: sentiment you pick up in Washington? It is so amazing

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Speaker 1: to see the split here. You know, you've had hashtag

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Speaker 1: never Trump and then hashtag always Trump, and I think

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Speaker 1: we've gotten to the hashtag eventually Trump with a lot

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Speaker 1: of establishment times. But David Brooks writes a very I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's definitely worth the read today. Um, I don't know

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Speaker 1: how the Republican Party unifies after the convention, uh to

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Speaker 1: effectively run a race um with that kind of split,

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Speaker 1: and we'll see. I don't know if Hillary Clinton is

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Speaker 1: the unifying factor that changes the dynamic. But I don't know.

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Speaker 1: If you're at that speech that Donald Trump gave at

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Speaker 1: the Mayflower Hotel age, I was not there. A speech

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Speaker 1: there on foreign policy, a format different than what we've

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Speaker 1: seen him in deliver before, in a in a setting

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Speaker 1: different from what we've seen before. Uh, he's making an effort,

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Speaker 1: it seems to to try to bridge that gap to

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Speaker 1: suggest that he is, uh, he could be more palatable

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Speaker 1: to the establishment. What did you make that speech? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think you're right, it was an effort to touch

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Speaker 1: some Republican themes that they want to hear. I think

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Speaker 1: more important, uh, two Republicans here in Washington is to

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Speaker 1: see the list of names he's potentially going to name

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Speaker 1: for the Supreme Court, to see some other wise men,

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Speaker 1: potentially that there were women on his cabinet. Uh. And

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Speaker 1: if he can surround himself head of the convention with

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Speaker 1: big names and and big decisions, that may change the dynamic. Well,

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Speaker 1: because the speech a certainly panned by Europeans and by

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Speaker 1: a lot of people in the foreign policy establishment in Washington. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the America first thing is definitely touches on the populous tone. Um.

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Speaker 1: But the way he talks about it is not traditionally

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Speaker 1: the way that Republicans have run foreign policy. So you know,

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Speaker 1: I've heard some people say that Donald Trump would potentially

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Speaker 1: be on some issues in foreign policy to the left

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Speaker 1: of Hillary Clinton. Well, I gotta ask you before we

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Speaker 1: let you go here. This this is a NERD prom

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Speaker 1: weekend and who's your guest? Who's your guest? For the

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Speaker 1: White House Corresponses Association dinner. Uh, you know, we I'm

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Speaker 1: not even sure what table I'm sitting at, but they

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Speaker 1: the Fox, they have a whole bunch of stars and

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Speaker 1: sports figures that are coming in and it's it's always

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Speaker 1: interesting him. This weekend is NonStop, and it's Washington padding

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Speaker 1: Washington on the back. So the big thing is to

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Speaker 1: get this Sunday. It's gotta be weird. You know, you

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Speaker 1: get some movie star or or Broadway actor or some

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Speaker 1: sports star and you're shooting at the table with them

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Speaker 1: and they look at you and go, wow, Brett mayor hopefully,

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Speaker 1: hopefully they say that. Last year I sat next to

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Speaker 1: Sir Patrick Stewart from Star Trek Fame. He's I saw

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Speaker 1: him in uh in uh Macbeth here at the Brooklyn

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Speaker 1: Academy and it was terrific. Have a great weekend, enjoy uh,

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Speaker 1: enjoy the dinner. Got a show to him and uh

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Speaker 1: and of course we will watch him on Fox News

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Speaker 1: Special Report, and we will listen to the Fox on

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Speaker 1: Fox News Sunday ten and two o'clock. Here on Bloomberg Radio, well,

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Speaker 1: we're watching the markets We are now about a half

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Speaker 1: hour away from the open, and does look, David like

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Speaker 1: we're going to have a down open. Futures continue to

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Speaker 1: deteriorate here, SMP features off by eight, down features down

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Speaker 1: by sixty nine right now and as night features are

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Speaker 1: off by twenty three. I'm gonna leave the show and

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Speaker 1: now and go off on assignment, but David will be

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Speaker 1: here through the rest of Bloomberg Surveillance Special offer on Friday,

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Speaker 1: another hour of the program with David garraw here on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.