WEBVTT - Beating The Book: Guessing Lines NFL Divisional Round Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:12.480 Check it on Man No Down, Man's Good Funday Morning too. 0:00:13.000 --> 0:00:15.160 It is a numbers game right here at Visa the 0:00:15.200 --> 0:00:17.680 sports betting network Visa dot Com. The Visa have food, 0:00:17.720 --> 0:00:21.920 bo Sling Game Plus, and of course I heart Radio. 0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:26.040 It's Gill Alexander. What a weekend. What a weekend, the 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:29.880 first ever Super wild Card weekend. We will discuss all 0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:34.880 I will try to remember every single detail. I'm sure 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:37.280 I will. I will forget one or two here there, 0:00:38.000 --> 0:00:39.839 but I think we're gonna be pretty thorough about all 0:00:39.880 --> 0:00:43.479 of this. And uh, we'll do it in listen. We'll 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:46.080 do it in guessing lines format fashion, not that we're 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:49.080 guessing lines. We will guest lines, but I doubt there 0:00:49.120 --> 0:00:50.840 will be that much of a discrepancy. But it's really 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:53.159 our excuse to go back and look at all the 0:00:53.159 --> 0:00:57.200 games yesterday, look forward to next weekend's divisional round. Uh. 0:00:57.200 --> 0:00:59.319 And of course Bill Connolly will be here as well 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:03.000 to discuss the National championship tonight. Bill Connolly, who writes 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:06.840 for ESPN, the creator of sp plus the advanced staff 0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:09.320 for college football. Bill will give us his advanced dad 0:01:09.360 --> 0:01:13.080 analysis on tonight's game with Alabama favorite over Ohio State. 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:14.800 But let's bring him in. He's the star of the 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:19.000 show every Monday morning for guessing lines. Um, Jason, what 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:20.280 are you telling him? Because I can't hear you. What 0:01:20.280 --> 0:01:22.200 do you think? We've got the animation ready to rap o. 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:24.840 That's what you want with his with his funky little intro. 0:01:25.000 --> 0:01:29.760 Here it is for guessing lines. Everybody, Yeah, non sectioned 0:01:29.959 --> 0:01:41.200 electric guitar, non sectioned by Chrisma. Yeah, Chris Andrews, everybody 0:01:41.720 --> 0:01:44.160 who runs the South Point Hotel Casino sports book. Good 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:48.200 morning to you, Chrissie. How are you? Oh good? But 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:50.440 I wish you had played that music a little longer. 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:53.600 It sounded like Jimmy Page or Eric Clapton. That was terrific. 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:56.360 Wait do you like it? Did you warm to it? 0:01:56.480 --> 0:02:01.120 Since I'm gonna say not really yes, Jimmy Page from 0:02:01.200 --> 0:02:04.760 Led Zeppelin, Eric Clapton, it was not. Um, it really 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:07.080 should get sell with us on the music Listen did 0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:10.160 the Pittsburgh outcome? Let's start here because I'm my big 0:02:10.200 --> 0:02:13.720 headline before we get into all this is, you know, 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:16.000 one of the staples of this show, not just guessing lines, 0:02:16.040 --> 0:02:18.680 but just a numbers game, and we do it network wide. 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:21.760 But certainly I'm I'm I don't know the words guilty 0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:23.359 of it or not, but certainly one of the staples 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:26.120 is is that we go back and we lament I'll 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:32.000 be kind coaching decisions coaching malpractice on any given Sunday, Right, 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:35.280 Anthony Lynn comes to mind as a big as someone 0:02:35.320 --> 0:02:38.160 who's big culprit of that week after week. I don't 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:41.040 ever remember a playoff weekend. And I get that there 0:02:41.080 --> 0:02:43.359 were six games and not four, but I don't ever 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:49.000 remember a playoff weekend where four out of the six losers. 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:50.840 I'll leave Matt Naggy out of it because I think 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:53.800 his team just stinks, but four out of the six 0:02:53.919 --> 0:03:01.320 teams that lost it was severe coaching malpractice sequences that 0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:04.680 boggle the mind. And I just questioned, like, what are 0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:07.160 we betting on? What is this? So we're gonna get 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:10.079 into all of that. I don't remember this bad ever 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:12.800 in one given moment. I'm not sure if you do either. 0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:14.480 We'll get your response to that. And then was the 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:16.799 Pittsburgh game Estuary that just make it you guys make 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:22.000 out with that outcome yesterday. Uh, it was kind of 0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:24.320 like the least of the evils. You know, we had 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:27.040 a lot of you know it works out this way 0:03:27.919 --> 0:03:31.000 in in you know, in bookmaking, and it really just 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:33.200 kind of like the way we do the accounting, you 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:37.200 always have everything funneled into that last game. Uh So, 0:03:37.280 --> 0:03:39.920 once you know what we did, like the what ifs, 0:03:40.000 --> 0:03:41.880 you know, we looked like we were we were in 0:03:41.920 --> 0:03:45.520 big trouble, certainly if the Steelers went out right. Uh 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:48.160 And I had a big money line on Cleveland all week, 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:50.400 just because I knew that was going to be the situation. 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:53.360 They were just a real popular teaser team and we 0:03:53.400 --> 0:03:57.480 couldn't knock out anything uh significant going into that, you know, 0:03:57.520 --> 0:03:59.800 teaser wise, you know, so we were I knew we 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:02.800 were honorable. Uh So I even juiced up the money 0:04:02.880 --> 0:04:05.440 line a little bit more and probably took back more 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:08.920 than I should have on on Cleveland on the money line. 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:11.280 But all in all, it was it was still like 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:14.040 a good day. We had a good result with with 0:04:14.120 --> 0:04:16.760 everything combined when especially when you kind of looked at it. 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:19.279 We lost the first two games, you know, and managed 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:22.320 to win the last one, although we probably should have 0:04:22.320 --> 0:04:24.120 want a little more than we did. But all in all, 0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:26.479 was a pretty good day. Pretty good day. Do you 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:30.480 agree with me that we've never seen as rampant coaching 0:04:31.000 --> 0:04:34.240 failures as as we did in this moment. I don't 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:36.240 think I'm being a prisoner of the moment saying this. 0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:39.039 In fact, I would like for listeners to the show 0:04:39.080 --> 0:04:41.279 today if when you tweet in a Beating the book, 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:43.200 you can tweet in about whatever you want to tweet about. 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:48.039 But if you'd like to rank these four guys Frank Raich, 0:04:48.600 --> 0:04:53.120 Mike Rabel, Mike Tomlin, Pete Carroll, just which of the 0:04:53.200 --> 0:04:57.360 coaching blunders this weekend was the worst? Rank UM one 0:04:57.360 --> 0:05:00.400 through four. It's just I can't believe what I was 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:05.840 watching this weekend. This is horrific. Well, you know, on 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:10.719 my from my standpoint, I know I'm probably I know 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:14.120 I'm in the minority. They're just interrupted one second, just 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:16.520 to give station idea. It's Gill Alexander, Chris Andrews. This 0:05:16.600 --> 0:05:18.400 is guessing lines on a numbers game at Visa and 0:05:18.440 --> 0:05:21.520 the sports betting network Visa dot Com, Visa at footbos 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:23.520 Link Game Plus. And of course I heart I'm sorry, Chris, 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:28.080 go ahead. Well, you know I always just look at 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:31.279 team kind of you know, some of all their parts, 0:05:31.360 --> 0:05:34.760 you know, and some of the you know, I I 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:37.840 like let's let's take the Steelers. You know, we kind 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:39.760 of know what Mike tomline and he's not like a 0:05:39.800 --> 0:05:42.960 big analytical guy. You know, that's just you know, until 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:45.640 he hires somebody to do that. You know, again, that's 0:05:45.680 --> 0:05:47.920 just going to be part of what their team is. 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:51.400 Same with every coach you just mentioned. You know, Mike Rabel, Uh, 0:05:51.480 --> 0:05:54.280 you know, he figured out some things last year where 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:58.400 he kind of had Bill Belichick by the shorthairs, you know, 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:00.240 because some of the things that he had kind of 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:02.920 figured out that he learned from Belichick, but he was 0:06:03.000 --> 0:06:05.480 using them against them. But these are all just, like 0:06:05.520 --> 0:06:08.640 I said, some of the parts, you know, that creates 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:11.840 the whole. And uh, you know, some guys are, you know, 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:13.640 real good at that sort of stuff, and a lot 0:06:13.720 --> 0:06:15.520 of guys are, and you gotta remember the world that 0:06:15.560 --> 0:06:17.960 they came from. You're talking about Pete Carroll, what's he 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:21.600 like seventy something like that. I think he's sixty eight something. Uh, 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:24.960 he's been in football his whole life, you know, he Uh, 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:27.360 this is just kind of what he is. You know. 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:29.400 So I'm not sure these guys are gonna change. But 0:06:29.400 --> 0:06:31.960 I look at that and I realized that's what it is, 0:06:32.000 --> 0:06:34.360 but not to say that they didn't make big mistakes. 0:06:34.400 --> 0:06:37.919 They did, you know, but that that really isn't always 0:06:37.960 --> 0:06:41.680 my concern because to me going forward, I look at 0:06:41.720 --> 0:06:43.839 that as that's kind of what the team is like 0:06:43.880 --> 0:06:45.800 when I'm making a number of booking of games doing 0:06:46.040 --> 0:06:49.480 whatever like that. Well, that makes sense. But I will 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:52.640 tell you from a betting standpoint, there is some much 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:56.760 there is some that these coaches do what they're supposed 0:06:56.800 --> 0:06:59.359 to do. But I guess that's uh, that's a naive 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:01.000 of me and this age, by the way, Pete Carroll 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:03.280 sixty nine years of age. Let's let's do this in 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:06.720 the format that we normally do it again. We call 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:10.280 it guessing lines. We'll guess the lines here. I know 0:07:10.400 --> 0:07:11.920 that I'm only you know because I know what they 0:07:11.920 --> 0:07:13.880 are now, But I will tell you that I guessed 0:07:13.880 --> 0:07:16.240 them and I was not far off on any of 0:07:16.280 --> 0:07:18.000 them this time. But well, we'll go through and give 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:19.920 us excuse to go through everything yesterday. Let's start with 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:25.960 the first of the divisional round games on Saturday. Well, 0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:29.080 the Packers are a pretty solid seven and the only 0:07:29.160 --> 0:07:32.480 differences I ever saw, I think there was a there 0:07:32.520 --> 0:07:34.040 was a couple of six and a half's when I 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:37.640 first opened up with juice on the favorite, and then 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:40.280 even some seven and a halfs with pretty heavy juice 0:07:40.320 --> 0:07:41.760 on the dog. I still see some of that, but 0:07:41.840 --> 0:07:45.560 the six and a halfs are virtually gone, or at 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:48.600 least on my stream. I opened at seven. I kind 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:52.240 of like the higher number. Um if it if it 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:53.760 were to goo to seven and a half, I could 0:07:53.760 --> 0:07:56.400 see going there myself. And uh, and again I think 0:07:56.440 --> 0:08:00.160 people are a little bit prisoners of the moment in 0:08:00.280 --> 0:08:04.360 all of these games. The other Rams one, Uh, their 0:08:04.360 --> 0:08:06.840 defense looked fantastic, and I think that's what guys are 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:08.880 gonna keep in mind in this game. But I thought 0:08:08.960 --> 0:08:12.000 seven was a good opening number. I guess seven and 0:08:12.080 --> 0:08:15.080 a half here and I'll tell you why I was dreaming, 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:18.840 like as the Rams were winning this game against the Seahawks. 0:08:18.880 --> 0:08:20.880 And we'll get into this here in a second. But 0:08:21.720 --> 0:08:26.200 the Jared golf possibilities at a cold lambeau Field were 0:08:26.240 --> 0:08:28.440 at least worth. It took above the seven for me, 0:08:28.480 --> 0:08:30.280 because we've seen him in cold weather again. There was 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:32.960 that there was just used one example, the Monday night 0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:35.960 game in Chicago where it was only thirty two degrees 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:38.960 fahrenheit and the California kid acted like it was thirty 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:42.280 two below, like he was just in over his head. 0:08:42.520 --> 0:08:44.679 So the Rams get here to play the number one 0:08:44.720 --> 0:08:47.840 Steed Packers obviously by beating the Seahawks. Uh, they do 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:50.880 it thirty to twenty acres had a hundred and thirty 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:53.960 one yards for the Rams. Darius Williams the big play 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:56.439 when he returned Russell Wilson's pick forty two yards for 0:08:56.480 --> 0:08:59.640 a score Rams one at thirty to twenty. Uh. Even 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:02.040 while a sing Aaron Donald They're all Pro tackle for 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:04.880 much of the second half. He left with a rib injury. 0:09:05.240 --> 0:09:07.720 And they did it without a healthy quarterback for you know, 0:09:07.800 --> 0:09:10.400 more than three quarters. John Wolford started for the second 0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:13.079 straight week, but he injured his neck when he dived 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:15.199 head first in the first quarter. Was hitting the helmet 0:09:15.200 --> 0:09:17.440 by Jamal Adam's shoulder. By the way they picked up 0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:19.960 the flag, my immediate comment was, oh, I bet they 0:09:20.000 --> 0:09:22.240 picked that up if that's Tom Brady, Like, there's just 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:25.480 no chance they pick up that flag. It's John Wolford, 0:09:25.480 --> 0:09:27.080 And so they pick it up. Oh yeah, it didn't 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:28.600 seem like it was that bad of a hit. Actually, 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:31.480 it wasn't targeting. Golf took over less than two weeks 0:09:32.400 --> 0:09:34.959 after undergoing surgery. Took over rather less than two weeks 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:37.440 after undergoing surgery on his right thumb. He ends up 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:40.800 Golf does nine of nineteen for one fifty five, one touchdown, 0:09:40.840 --> 0:09:44.040 no picks, sack twice. Wolford three of six for twenty 0:09:44.120 --> 0:09:45.920 nine when he was in there, no touchdowns, doe picks. 0:09:45.960 --> 0:09:48.160 He was sacked once. Acres, as I mentioned, twenty eight 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:50.480 carries for one thirty one in a touchdown. The Rams 0:09:50.480 --> 0:09:52.800 finished with a hundred sixty four yards rushing in this 0:09:52.840 --> 0:09:56.240 game against Seattle. They they were three of fifteen on 0:09:56.360 --> 0:09:59.600 third down, but they held Seattle to two of fourteen 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:03.000 on or down. They also held Seattle to eleven total 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:07.320 first downs in the football game. Wilson and what a 0:10:07.440 --> 0:10:10.760 shell of himself he's become like in the course of 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:14.439 one year. Russell Wilson went to front runner for m 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:17.280 v P. It's his to lose to a guy who 0:10:17.280 --> 0:10:20.280 completed the eleven passes versus the Rams and the playoffs. 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:23.120 He connected with dk metcalf on a pair of touchdowns 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:24.960 fifty one yards in the first half of a broken 0:10:24.960 --> 0:10:28.679 play than a twelve yard or with left really to 0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:31.319 make the score more respectable than you know, than it 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:34.040 could have been. Seattle never played with the lead. They 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:36.520 as I mentioned, two or fourtune on thirds. Their ten 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:39.440 game home playoff win streak is snapped. Of course, you know, 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:43.120 different crowd issue there. Jamal Adams said he played with 0:10:43.120 --> 0:10:46.320 a torn laborim in his left shoulder. Afterwards, he thought 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:49.360 he'd throw that in. In addition to Donald's injury, Cooper 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:51.960 Cup limped off grabbing at his right knee in the 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:55.000 closing minutes of that game. But can I get to 0:10:55.040 --> 0:10:57.280 the peak. Let's just sort of do the post mortem 0:10:57.320 --> 0:11:00.760 on the Seahawks if we could Chrissie, Uh, in a 0:11:00.880 --> 0:11:04.160 five minute before you go yeah, no, go ahead, go ahead. 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:05.680 I'm sorry to go ahead. I don't want to interrupt you. 0:11:05.679 --> 0:11:08.080 No go ahead? Okay, So in a five minute span 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:12.200 in this game and we're talking in the second quarter, uh, 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:14.760 he kicks a fifty yard field goal, fourth in one 0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:17.400 to tie the score up at three and three. Okay, 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:21.120 fourth and one fifty yard field goal? Agreed, disagree, that's 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:23.800 what he did. Fourth and one fifty yard Okay, goes 0:11:23.840 --> 0:11:27.720 in bails a mountain then dk Metcalf is screaming on 0:11:27.720 --> 0:11:30.720 the sidelines because things aren't going well for him or 0:11:30.840 --> 0:11:33.240 the Seahawks. They're down in this game at this point, 0:11:33.840 --> 0:11:36.559 and so they forced feed to pass the dk Metcalf 0:11:36.559 --> 0:11:39.160 in a playoff game pick six. That's the pick six 0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:42.080 up talking about Darius Williams makes it thirteen to three. 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:44.040 That's what happens when you forced feed the ball to 0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:46.920 a winding wide receiver to fifty five left in the 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:49.920 second quarter. It's third and nine. Golf goes to acres 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:53.040 for forty four yards and Pete Carroll with again it 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:56.319 was stupid challenge weekend. That was another theme of the weekend. 0:11:56.640 --> 0:11:59.280 He challenges that golf was over the line of scrimmage, 0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:01.320 which was just a yachting because it was clearly not 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:03.439 over the line of scrimmage. So they lose the time 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:06.600 out in the process, and then on on a late 0:12:06.720 --> 0:12:09.120 second half drive just north of two minutes to oh 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:11.760 one left, he doesn't you know, the team's not disciplined enough. 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:13.959 They jump off sides first and goal at the ten 0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:15.920 makes it first to goal at the five. The Rams 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:17.760 end up taking a twenty to ten lead into the 0:12:17.760 --> 0:12:20.240 half because they cash in on that. So it's just 0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:24.560 one that those are five different gaffs in a five 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:29.000 minutes span that are either directly on Carroll's shoulder or indirectly, 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.240 like you don't have your team prepared in any way. 0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:33.600 And at the end he was just like he couldn't 0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:36.120 believe his team had lost. McVeigh by the way goes 0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:38.800 to thirty seven and oh now when leading at halftime 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:42.280 the Sea half, the Seahawks had been nineteen and six 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:44.840 straight up since the start of last year in one 0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:47.040 score games. This one doesn't even end up in one 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:49.880 score games, So throw off. That's that, but five minute 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:51.960 period where it's just five different gaffs that I just 0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:54.199 rattled off the top of my head. So Pete Carroll, 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:56.079 for those on on Twitter at Beating the Book who 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:59.119 wanted to do your rankings, there's the Pete Carroll candidacy 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:01.560 for the worst code job of the weekend. I just 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:06.640 thought it was awful. Chris, Yeah, but once again, you 0:13:06.679 --> 0:13:08.559 know who are these guys. You're gonna look at the 0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:11.160 care Okay, sixty nine years old? How did he get 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:14.439 to where he is? Where? Where was he like before yesterday? Well, 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:17.560 it was, you know, pretty successful with USC He won 0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:20.960 a Super Bowl with uh, with Seattle. You know, so 0:13:21.200 --> 0:13:23.160 this this is just who he is now all of 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:26.480 a sudden. I know, you know, myself and my friends, 0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:30.120 we've talked about this if they need somebody on, you know, 0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:32.719 up in the booth or whatever to tell them the 0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:35.719 metrics as the game is going on. But if you're 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:37.480 a guy like Pe Carroll, I can just say what 0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:39.640 I mean, I listen to some pencil neck little geek 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:43.600 that never played football his entire life. That's what I'm 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:46.280 supposed to take advice from. You know. And we see 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:49.080 this all the time. And you know we're talking football force, 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:50.960 but we see it all the time. You know, in 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:54.720 all walks of life, guys who buy football teams. Let's 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:57.719 say the Washington football team. You've got a guy like 0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:00.760 Daniel Snyder, who was I don't know if he was 0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:02.920 a billionaire at thirty five, but he was, you know, 0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:05.960 pretty darn close actually a genius and everything that they 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:07.280 ever did. Now, all of a sudden, he owns a 0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:10.840 football team and he thinks, okay, look how he's been 0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:13.520 Uh you know, fe smart I am. I'm smart enough 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:15.679 to buy this football team at thirty five years old. 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:18.600 Of course, I know exactly what I'm doing, and of 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:21.840 course you know he didn't. But you know, this is 0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:25.960 just you know, this is how the egos work on people, 0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:30.680 not just the you know, people in authoritative positions. And 0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:36.160 some guys can adapt, and other guys are just trapped 0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:39.160 within their own ego and the owned and the things 0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:42.520 that they've done their whole life, do what's right, and 0:14:42.320 --> 0:14:44.880 and won't be able to adapt. I think Pete Carroll 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:47.600 and probably all these coaches that you're talking about fall 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:50.920 into that category. But you know, right now we're talking 0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:54.440 about Pete and I think he definitely falls into that category. Yeah. Well, 0:14:54.600 --> 0:14:56.480 I mean all of that may be true, some of that, 0:14:56.600 --> 0:14:58.160 some of this stuff that we're gonna go through today 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:00.200 is just so simple that that I find it to 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:03.320 believe that you can't adapt to certain things. Um, maybe 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:06.600 you're right. I will tell you this. I was looking 0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:09.880 forward to this golf at at Lambeau matchup. I love 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:11.640 that it's you said it was seven or six and 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:15.120 a half in the end. No, no, no, it's seven. 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:17.840 But that's what I didn't want to say, is you 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:19.840 know the red when I kind of said out like 0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:21.640 a higher and I still I still kind of like 0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:25.200 it higher, but part of it was Aaron Donald being 0:15:25.280 --> 0:15:29.720 hurt and Cooper Cup being hurt that they're best offensive player, 0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:33.520 they're best defensive player. But as of this morning, but 0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:37.120 they is saying that they should be fined by Sunday again, 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:40.840 coaches lie and they don't have to say who's participating 0:15:40.880 --> 0:15:43.080 in practice and all that yet, you know, but they 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:44.840 will buy later in the week. But I would keep 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:47.120 an eye on those two injuries because if those guys 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:52.640 you know, are out or hampered, uh, seven is probably 0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:56.680 a pretty cheap number. Yeah, I think it's cheap. I 0:15:56.880 --> 0:16:00.400 really like the Packers and that's what I may like 0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:03.680 that game more than any of the four this coming weekend. 0:16:04.240 --> 0:16:06.360 How did how did this and and just say it 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:09.800 one more time, how did this Rams team lose to 0:16:09.880 --> 0:16:13.040 the Jets and kill some of us in Survivor? Because 0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:15.840 not only did Golf you know, we we we uh 0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:18.680 we harp on Jared Golf in that game and the 0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:21.120 golf face. But you know what, Aaron Donald didn't do 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.600 anything in that game either, like it was an all 0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:26.200 out failed. They just simply did not show up for 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:29.120 that game, didn't care. And again just you know, from 0:16:29.120 --> 0:16:35.000 a betting perspective. Always keep in mind these pitfalls exist. Sadly, 0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:38.000 those of us who had the Rams that week fell 0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:41.280 into that little pitfall and that was the end of that, 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:44.520 all right, number two. We'll start on number two here 0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:54.240 on game two on Saturday, Ravens at the Bills. Um, well, 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:57.640 this number open between two and happens three. I guess 0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:00.760 that's kind of like take your choice. Three was my three? 0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:06.840 I really I've been a Bills guy, you know, certainly 0:17:06.840 --> 0:17:10.560 for the last two months. I thought I was gonna 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:12.399 like the Bills an awful lot in this game. I 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:15.320 still kind of like them. But you know, we played 0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:17.679 that little two and have three games at self point, Well, 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:20.280 the customers played on, so try to hold the whole 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:23.160 number if and when I can. So I opened three, 0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:26.320 and you know, I'm looking at my screen right now. 0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:28.880 You've got a lot of money plus three. And as 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:32.400 I look at it, I think I think the public 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:36.560 will be on the Ravens. The Bills won. They didn't 0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:39.400 look that great, and everybody really has, you know, recency 0:17:39.680 --> 0:17:42.399 so much in mind and some of that, you know, 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:45.520 I know we kind of knocked that as being not 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:48.520 very smart, but a lot of times it is. Sometimes 0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:51.320 teams are just peaking right now. I think this Ravens 0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:56.159 team is really playing well. But I still like the Bills. 0:17:56.200 --> 0:18:00.119 I think they're gonna win this game. And uh, you 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:02.600 know their defense. I think it hasn't been all that 0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:05.960 good for the last couple of months, but but I 0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:07.960 think it's doing I'm looking right now, that's not well, 0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:10.399 it's not the high there's a couple of high scoring 0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:13.080 games that we've got total wise, but I think I 0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:14.520 think it would be a real good game. I thought 0:18:14.680 --> 0:18:17.160 three was a good number. I could definitely see two 0:18:17.160 --> 0:18:19.119 and AVO it's gonna be right in that range. But 0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:21.000 I think the public is gonna be on the Ravens 0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:23.159 in this game. Yeah, I guess three. It was the 0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:24.959 only thing I thought to make it. I was like, 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:27.520 that just seems like an obvious three. But I think 0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:29.480 you're right. I think Baltimore money will come in on 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:32.479 this just because of recency. Here. Baltimore gets there by 0:18:32.560 --> 0:18:36.600 virtue of their win over the Titans. They rally from 0:18:36.640 --> 0:18:41.080 ten points down um in the first of the Sunday 0:18:41.200 --> 0:18:45.080 Wild Card games. Lamar Jackson finally with his first postseason victory. 0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:47.480 They snapped a string of twenty one straight games the 0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:50.439 Ravens did lost by the franchise in either the regular 0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:53.000 season or playoffs when trailing by ten or more. How 0:18:53.000 --> 0:18:56.000 about that Jackson ended up seventeen twenty four for one 0:18:56.119 --> 0:18:59.520 seventy nine, no touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked five times, 0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:02.119 but six team carries for one hundred thirty six yards 0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:05.879 and a touchdown. Uh six one yard rushing game. It 0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:08.640 is rather the six one yard rushing game by a quarterback. 0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:12.919 In the postseason. Lamar and Colin Kaepernick each with two 0:19:13.440 --> 0:19:16.960 Marquise Hollywood Brown seven catches for one oh nine four 0:19:17.400 --> 0:19:20.439 one total yards for the Ravens, and in in victory they 0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:22.479 also shut down. And this is the most important thing. 0:19:22.720 --> 0:19:26.040 Two thousand yard rusher Derrick Henry holding Tennessee to its 0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:29.120 fewest points all season. Henry ends up. Derrick Henry ends 0:19:29.160 --> 0:19:32.199 up with eighteen carries for forty yards forty yards. He 0:19:32.280 --> 0:19:35.080 ran all over the Ravens with three hundred twenty eight 0:19:35.160 --> 0:19:38.679 yards combined in the past two meetings this year, or 0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:41.480 the past two meetings period. Rather, both Calais Campbell and 0:19:41.480 --> 0:19:43.960 Brandon Williams were back on the Baltimore defensive line, though 0:19:44.440 --> 0:19:47.240 Henry with his worst performance of the year again, eighteen 0:19:47.280 --> 0:19:50.520 for forty. Ravens held the Titans the twelve first downs. 0:19:50.800 --> 0:19:55.160 Baltimore smothered that Tennessee offense that had tied for fourth 0:19:55.320 --> 0:19:57.720 in the league this year, averaging thirty points seven points 0:19:57.720 --> 0:20:00.560 a game. They had more offensive yard per game during 0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:03.040 the season than any team but Kansas City, and the 0:20:03.160 --> 0:20:05.440 Ravens out gained in four oh one to two oh nine. 0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:07.400 In the end, too oh nine was just fifty one 0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:09.760 total rushing yards. Titans did have the ball at a 0:20:09.840 --> 0:20:13.159 chance to win, but Marcus Peters intercepted Tannehill's pass intended 0:20:13.200 --> 0:20:16.080