WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Cam Dawson & Mick Mulroy

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea and we'll make it quick today, inflation

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<v Speaker 2>data tomorrow. Sort of as we're sliding into the end

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<v Speaker 2>of the year, and one of the things we're sliding

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<v Speaker 2>into are those dreaded outlooks forward from everyone I have

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<v Speaker 2>was in an uber today that Bentley was down, and

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<v Speaker 2>I was in the uber and the guy handed me

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<v Speaker 2>his twelve page outlook for twenty twenty five. Who doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>have an outlook for twenty twenty five? Some of them,

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<v Speaker 2>you hope, are based on some actual evidence and serious

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<v Speaker 2>forecasting about what is to come. Cam Dawson with New

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<v Speaker 2>Edge Wealth her foundation, her optimism is based on earning's growth.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a shocking double digit number. Here's Cam Dawson.

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<v Speaker 3>What's interesting is that in consensus that earnings growth is

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<v Speaker 3>expected to continue into twenty twenty six at twelve percent growth,

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<v Speaker 3>says consensus. But the good thing to remember is that

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<v Speaker 3>consensus is not necessarily a crystal ball and doesn't mean

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<v Speaker 3>it's going to come true. There's no better example of

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<v Speaker 3>this than consensus estimates for small caps. They've been cut

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<v Speaker 3>by thirty percent this year over the course of the year,

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<v Speaker 3>as small cap earnings continue to disappoint, and so when

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<v Speaker 3>we look into next year, small cap earnings are expected

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<v Speaker 3>to grow forty four percent next year, the highest bar

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<v Speaker 3>you can find in this market, but we don't know

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<v Speaker 3>if that necessarily deserves the benefit of the doubt because

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<v Speaker 3>of this revision cycle lower that has persisted.

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<v Speaker 2>It shows us some of the variability out there. Kim

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<v Speaker 2>Dawson there with some stunning variants for small casts, but

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<v Speaker 2>also for large caps as well. I'll just simply say,

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<v Speaker 2>looking back eighteen months in this great bull market, it's

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<v Speaker 2>just real simple. There's been a complete underestimation of America's

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<v Speaker 2>nominal and real economic growth and the margin persistency that

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<v Speaker 2>we saw under corporate earnings. Time will tell. On the

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<v Speaker 2>Eastern Mediterranean, we spoke with Mick Moulroy. He's a former

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<v Speaker 2>Assistant Secretary of Defense with two tours a duty won

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<v Speaker 2>with Secretary of Mattis and a real expert here on

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<v Speaker 2>what we're gonna see. We had a piercing discussion on

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<v Speaker 2>the collapse of Syria, the future of the levat Mick

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<v Speaker 2>Molroy the Global Institute.

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<v Speaker 1>So it certainly was an inflection point when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to the US's view of that part of the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, hundreds of individuals, US Marines primarily were killed.

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<v Speaker 1>The embassy was attacked, man he were killed there, and

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<v Speaker 1>that of course was done by Hesbola, who up until

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<v Speaker 1>the time of nine to eleven was the terrorist organization

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<v Speaker 1>most responsible for killing Americans because of primarily the event

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<v Speaker 1>we just reference, But that was an inflection of point

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<v Speaker 1>of how we view ourselves in the Middle East, how

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<v Speaker 1>we view ourselves as mediators in all the conflicts that

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<v Speaker 1>happen there, and as we're viewed by the people that

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<v Speaker 1>are there. So I think that is a very important

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<v Speaker 1>point in part of history.

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<v Speaker 2>On a time back to a morning when we woke

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<v Speaker 2>up in America with President Reagan to changing in a

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<v Speaker 2>horrific death in Lebanon. It continues to haunt us forward

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<v Speaker 2>on this topic as we look into twenty twenty five,

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<v Speaker 2>got a whole set of guests lined up around crushingly

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<v Speaker 2>busy schedules. Just as one example, Julie Norman of the

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<v Speaker 2>University College London schedule to join us, many many others

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<v Speaker 2>as well. On your commute across the nation, Apple CarPlay

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<v Speaker 2>and roight outo Serious Exemp Channel one twenty one far

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<v Speaker 2>more importantly, building out YouTube. It's our big goal for

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty five. You get people to subscribe to Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Podcasts and listen to us each in every morning. Also

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<v Speaker 2>out on YouTube podcasts. Single best sen