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Speaker 1: What's going on, everybody. I'm Scott Bogman back to give

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Speaker 1: you my favorite picks, props, parlays, all that good stuff

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Speaker 1: for the twenty twenty five season. Week zero of course

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a shorter slate, so I won't

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Speaker 1: have as many games, but I'll go through the game,

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Speaker 1: tell you which way I'm laying on all of them.

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Speaker 1: I do have a decent amount of props for today

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Speaker 1: as well. But just so you guys know, you can

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Speaker 1: follow me bettingpro dot Com slash Bogman. I think that

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Speaker 1: usually works, so follow me over there. You can tail

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Speaker 1: all my bats, love me, fade me however you want to.

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Speaker 1: It's just a lot of fun in the college football season.

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Speaker 1: So with no further ado, let's get into it. We

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Speaker 1: are starting with Pharmageddon, the big Iowa State Kansas State

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Speaker 1: game happening in Dublin. The current line right now is

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Speaker 1: k State minus three. This game, to me is a

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Speaker 1: very interesting one because this is a close game. Right

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Speaker 1: But I do think that when you talk about Week zero,

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Speaker 1: and I said this in an earlier show this week, well,

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Speaker 1: right like, Week zero is so hard to pick, and

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Speaker 1: I feel like we all had Florida State last year

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Speaker 1: in Georgia Tech beat him in the opener overseas. Right,

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Speaker 1: There's so many moving pieces to every single roster this year,

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Speaker 1: so you know, I think I'm more into this Week

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Speaker 1: zero because I've probably studied it more than any other

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Speaker 1: Week zero or more in depth at least this year

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Speaker 1: and last year maybe, But this one is a very

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Speaker 1: short slate, so I get it if you don't want

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Speaker 1: to bet it. This is a tough game too. It's

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Speaker 1: a rivalry game on the road. There's a lot of

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Speaker 1: big implications in here to start the season, so I

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Speaker 1: get it. If you want to lay off more often,

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Speaker 1: this is the game. This is a spread that I

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Speaker 1: would say I'm most confident in. I do like Kansas

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Speaker 1: State here, and it's because when you do look at

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Speaker 1: what each team is replacing, you drill down on it. Right.

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Speaker 1: Iowa State, particularly on offense, losing two big wide receivers

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Speaker 1: and Jane Higgins and Jalen Nole to the NFL, and

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Speaker 1: that was the strength of their team last season. They

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Speaker 1: had over fifty percent of the receptions for the team.

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Speaker 1: No other player had over thirty four catches last year

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Speaker 1: for the Cyclones, and the rest of the offense did

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Speaker 1: not grade well. I believe only the running backs were

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Speaker 1: graded above average and it was slightly above average. Everything

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Speaker 1: else blocking both against the pass and the run terrible.

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Speaker 1: Even rock O Beck, who is a good quarterback that

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Speaker 1: has had a lot of experience. Obviously, our boy boy

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Speaker 1: Terrell loves him, but I'm just not as big a fan.

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Speaker 1: I'm not as sold on him. So I do think

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Speaker 1: that the weakness for what CA State is replacing is

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Speaker 1: the secondary, and I think it can be taken advantage of,

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Speaker 1: particularly early. I just don't know that Iowa State is

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Speaker 1: going to be able to do that as successfully as

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Speaker 1: they would have with Noel and Higgins last season. So

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Speaker 1: very good secondary for Iowa State. They did lose Darian

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Speaker 1: Porter in the draft, but John Tess Williams was the

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Speaker 1: highest grade corner. He comes back. They're leading safety in

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Speaker 1: snaps is coming back as well, so there is for

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Speaker 1: during production in the secondary. But this is a run

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Speaker 1: first offensive playing case State led by Avery Johnson and

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Speaker 1: Dylan Edwards, who is a preseason an Athlon preseason Thirteam

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Speaker 1: All Americans. So like you know, the big thing you

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Speaker 1: lose at Kansas State is DJ Giddens. You replace him

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Speaker 1: with a potential All American as well. And Dylan Edwards

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Speaker 1: a dude that isn't He's not a big back like Giddens,

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Speaker 1: but he's great with the ball in his hands, so

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Speaker 1: kick returner, right. I just think there's too much that

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Speaker 1: Kansas State is going to be able to take advantage

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Speaker 1: of against Iowa State. So I'm going to lean on

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Speaker 1: the Wildcats side. I'm going to lay the points. If

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Speaker 1: you want to, like put this in a parlay because

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Speaker 1: you're less confident and just take Kansas State on the

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Speaker 1: money line. I understand that as well. So total, I

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Speaker 1: don't know. I'm just not touching the total in that game.

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Speaker 1: Let's move to the second game here, I'm gonna lay

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Speaker 1: the thirteen and a half points that the Jayhawks are

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Speaker 1: giving Fresno State. Here, it's ballooned up to fourteen. Money

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Speaker 1: is coming in on the Kansas side at a high clip.

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Speaker 1: Money is pretty even on k State and Iowa State,

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Speaker 1: but cash is flowing towards the Jayhawks here. This line

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Speaker 1: has opened up since I believe when I first saw

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Speaker 1: it was the Hawks by eleven. Now it's by thirteen

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Speaker 1: and a half. It's going to go up to over

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Speaker 1: fourteen fourteen and a half at some point. So maybe

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Speaker 1: you just want to take the k State team total.

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Speaker 1: That would be okay as well. I don't seem to

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Speaker 1: find it in the books that I'm looking at. But

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Speaker 1: for me, I just like Kansas in this game. And

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Speaker 1: I don't particularly love Kansas this year, right. I think

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Speaker 1: they lost a lot of talent. Three fists of the

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Speaker 1: offensive line, the wide receiver room looks completely different, the

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Speaker 1: tight ends are completely different. Get a couple running backs back,

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Speaker 1: you get your starting quarterback and Jaalen Daniels had a

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Speaker 1: bad year back. But for me, Fresno State, particularly in

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Speaker 1: Week one, is just this team. You know, holds changes

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Speaker 1: in the coaching staff last year. They're very low returning

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Speaker 1: production and the production that they had last year was

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Speaker 1: not good. Anyway, matt Ends it comes in as head coach.

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Speaker 1: He was the oc USC last year before that. He

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Speaker 1: has a great track record. He replaced Chris climb in

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Speaker 1: the Kansas State head coach at North Dakota State when

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Speaker 1: he left to take the Kansas State job. He made

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Speaker 1: the playoffs five years in a row. He won two

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Speaker 1: nineties in nineteen and twenty one at the FCS level.

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Speaker 1: So this is a good coach in matt Ends. But

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Speaker 1: you're playing in a Mountain West conference with this, this

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Speaker 1: is really a trim the fat year is what I

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Speaker 1: would call like you're weeding out the you know, the

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Speaker 1: guys that cannot play at this level. You're finding a

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Speaker 1: lot of things that work, a lot of things that

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Speaker 1: don't work, and you're just kind of hitting the reset

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Speaker 1: button on this roster. So I think at the Mountain

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Speaker 1: West you have a quick the ability to quickly change

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Speaker 1: the outset of this team. We saw Signetti take a

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Speaker 1: lot of guys from James Madison right and make Indiana

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Speaker 1: a great team last year at the powerful left level.

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Speaker 1: Should be even easier at the FCS level. But you're

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Speaker 1: going on the road as a or excuse me, as

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Speaker 1: a G six. You're taking your G six team on

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Speaker 1: the road to Lawrence and Trell made this point on

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Speaker 1: Wednesday right that, look, Kansas didn't play in their home

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Speaker 1: stadium all your last year because the renovations are opening

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Speaker 1: up the new stadium after not playing there last year,

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Speaker 1: so I just think this is going to be the

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Speaker 1: Jayhawks run away with this game. So my pick in

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Speaker 1: that game is definitely going to be Kansas. I think

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Speaker 1: President say can get better. I think they can get

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Speaker 1: better quickly. I just think initial game on the road

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Speaker 1: against a powerful opponent and a team that has high

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Speaker 1: expectations after down you last year, I just really really

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Speaker 1: expect Leopold to have the Jayhawks ready to go and

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Speaker 1: rocking and rolling. So I really like Kansas in that game.

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Speaker 1: Before I move on to the next games, remember, if

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Speaker 1: you are looking to up your game in sports betting,

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Speaker 1: you can join our exclusives betting discord community at bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com slash Chat. Not only can you connect with

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Speaker 1: expert handicappers who provide free picks for the NBA, NFL, MLB,

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Speaker 1: NHL player props, live betting, and more, but you can

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Speaker 1: also participate in our weekly community picks. You can cast

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Speaker 1: your vote, see how your picks stack up against the experts,

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Speaker 1: and track your success. All right, two more games to

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Speaker 1: hit here before we go over to my props. UNLV

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Speaker 1: minus twenty six and a half. Look UNLV against Idaho State.

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Speaker 1: Idaho State is a very below average maybe you even

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Speaker 1: want to call them average FCS squad. They're just not

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Speaker 1: very good. UNOV is doing wholesale changes as well with

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Speaker 1: their whole coaching staff, but this is one of the

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Speaker 1: better teams in the Mountain West, even with these changes.

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Speaker 1: Dan Mullen is their head coach, and I do think

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Speaker 1: when you have a new regime coming in and taking

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Speaker 1: things over and there's big roster changes, you're playing a

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Speaker 1: lower level opponent, you do one of two things, right.

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Speaker 1: Either you build your confidence by just stomping a mud

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Speaker 1: hole in these dudes. So I think if you're laying points,

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Speaker 1: and it's a lot of points, I think there's definitely

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Speaker 1: the fact that let's build our confidence. Let's get a

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Speaker 1: big win. Let's you know, keep the foot on the gas,

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Speaker 1: and let's look good doing it to give our guys

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Speaker 1: some confidence that are brand new to the system, and

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Speaker 1: it's probably been a struggle in camp, right. The other

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Speaker 1: thing is if you are kind of playing rotating and

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Speaker 1: trying to see what guys have, then you're gonna have

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Speaker 1: different units coming in and all those units are gonna

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Speaker 1: be playing hard all game long. So it's one of

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Speaker 1: those two things. It's either, Okay, we know who the

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Speaker 1: starters are, let's give them some confidence. Let's build on

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Speaker 1: this lead and you know, keep pushing the ball, keep

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Speaker 1: the foot on the gas. Let's not, you know, do

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Speaker 1: this just because we're stomping a mud hole, or it's say, look,

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Speaker 1: we have our second unit in they're gonna play just

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Speaker 1: as hard as the first unit, and we're not gonna

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Speaker 1: like run the ball a lot to avoid injuries and

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Speaker 1: that type of thing. So I just think we're gonna

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Speaker 1: see a display from you LV to start. So I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna lay the twenty seven and a half and take

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Speaker 1: UNLV here. The next game up here is WKU and

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Speaker 1: Sam Houston state. I'm gonna go over sixty and a half.

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Speaker 1: And this is actually my favorite pick of the week.

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Speaker 1: Is this over in We've already seen it climb up.

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Speaker 1: But I will say the last time I looked, and

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Speaker 1: I'll just double check live as I'm recording this, but

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Speaker 1: the money was coming in towards the under the last

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Speaker 1: time I looked. I don't know if it was like

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Speaker 1: one big bet because the line started at fifty nine

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Speaker 1: to begin the week, it climbed up to sixty one

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Speaker 1: and a half and then the last time I saw it, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: most of the money is on the under, and surprisingly

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Speaker 1: a lot of tickets on the under as well. To me,

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Speaker 1: WKU is replacing a lot of pieces right in Sam Houston,

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Speaker 1: says getting a new coaching staff, So there are some

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Speaker 1: issues going on here, particularly with offensive continuity. But WKU

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Speaker 1: have the same system. We know what this is. This

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Speaker 1: is an air RAI system that they have every single year.

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Speaker 1: It's heavy passing, and they bring over Maverick McIver from

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Speaker 1: Abilene Christian. And this dude has a ton of experience

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Speaker 1: at Abline Christian. He has over a thousand pass attempts.

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Speaker 1: He has a sixty three what is it, I lost

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Speaker 1: it here, sixty three to twenty one touchdown to interception

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Speaker 1: rate over his first three seasons as a starter too

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Speaker 1: at Alabama State and one last year at New Mexico.

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Speaker 1: So this guy is a strong starter. So or I

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Speaker 1: believe he's Ablinen Christian makes him out for somebody else

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Speaker 1: he's Abline Christian guy. But this is a strong starter

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Speaker 1: coming into a pass heavy offense against a Sam Houston

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Speaker 1: State team that is one hundred and thirty third in

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Speaker 1: the country in returning defensive production. They have no continuity

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Speaker 1: returning on defense. They do have some on offense, so

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Speaker 1: I think they'll be able to score against a WKU

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Speaker 1: team that is replacing almost the entire I think actually

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Speaker 1: the entire front seven. They have two returning starters, both

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Speaker 1: of them are in the secondary. This is a run

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Speaker 1: first team in sam Houston State. They have a run

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Speaker 1: first quarterback and Hunter Watson as well. So I think

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Speaker 1: both teams, like you have WKU, who is a prolific

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Speaker 1: offense offensive team. Yes, they have to replace their starting quarterback,

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Speaker 1: but they bring a guy in with experience. I think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to pass against a team that

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Speaker 1: is figuring out gaining their bearings with so many new

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Speaker 1: faces on the defensive side for sam Houston State, you

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Speaker 1: know the and then on the other side, when you're

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Speaker 1: making all those replacements for WKU on defense, particularly in

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Speaker 1: the front seven, against a run first team top ten

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Speaker 1: running percentage running play percentage for sam Houston State last season.

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Speaker 1: So I think both sides match up well to score

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Speaker 1: points in this game. So I'm gonna take the over

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Speaker 1: in this one. The only game I'm really I don't

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Speaker 1: want any play in is Stanford and Hawaii. This is

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Speaker 1: a bad game with so many new pieces, Hawaii gets

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Speaker 1: a new quarterback. I would lean towards Hawaii, and I

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Speaker 1: said that on the show, like that's my lean, but

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Speaker 1: I don't have any money. I have money on all

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Speaker 1: the rest of the games, so in tickets. So this

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Speaker 1: game I'm just staying away from. It's not my favorite

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Speaker 1: at all. And you know, Week zero is tough. There's

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Speaker 1: going to be something that completely surprises us, whether that

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Speaker 1: is you know, hey, look these guys replacing Jalen Nolan Higgins, Rios,

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Speaker 1: they are pretty good and iowas they could win that game, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: I can see where the mistakes can be made in

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Speaker 1: Week zero, That's all I'm saying. So like I limit

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Speaker 1: my bets early in the season, and then, like I said, before,

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Speaker 1: we grow this like a tree, you know, your bets

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Speaker 1: should bulge, I feel like in the middle of the season.

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Speaker 1: But those are the picks for this week. I'm not

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Speaker 1: messing with this Hawaii and Stanford game. It's just too

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Speaker 1: there's too much unknown. Stanford is playing musical chairs that quarterback.

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Speaker 1: They lost their best two players, David Bailey on defense,

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Speaker 1: Lak Maynor on offense. He went to the NFL, Ali

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Speaker 1: went to Texas Tech in the transfer portal. Why is

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Speaker 1: replacing their quarterback in this high flying offense? So to me,

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Speaker 1: that's just to stay away. Maybe bet the under because

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Speaker 1: there's too much going on here in replacing some of

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Speaker 1: these players, and the total there is fifty and a half,

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Speaker 1: and I can tell you money is split right down

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Speaker 1: the middle. There's no like, there's no fade the public

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Speaker 1: magic number there or anything. I'm just going to go

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Speaker 1: ahead and stay away from that game overall. But if

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Speaker 1: you want to track all of your wages in one place,

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Speaker 1: you can check out Betting Pros Picktracker. It syncs up

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Speaker 1: with your sports books to tally which picks hit and

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Speaker 1: which miss. Plus it gives you a live look at

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Speaker 1: what the public is doing, so you can use real

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Speaker 1: time tracking to determine which place to make and which

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Speaker 1: to fade. Track your picks today with a Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: Picktracker at Bettingpros dot com, slash tracking or on the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros app. All right, I'm going to burn through

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Speaker 1: some props here. These are all overs, right, Like, I'm

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Speaker 1: not looking for unders this early in this season quite yet.

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Speaker 1: So my first one is going to be Kansas State

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Speaker 1: running back Dylan Edwards. We're going to go over twelve

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Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards. If you want to go

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Speaker 1: over the eight and a half on the longest reception.

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Speaker 1: I think that's an acceptable bet as well. You know,

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Speaker 1: we talked about this game, how I feel like for

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Speaker 1: Kansas State to pass the ball well because the secondary

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Speaker 1: is the one good thing that Iowa State has coming

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Speaker 1: back on defense, right, even losing Darian Porter, their secondary

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Speaker 1: is still pretty strong. So I think you get a

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Speaker 1: lot of short design passes out of Kansas State. And

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Speaker 1: Avery Johnson's not a guy that threw the ball downfield

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Speaker 1: very well last year anyway. So you know, Edwards is

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Speaker 1: the main back here. He's a pass catching back. He's

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Speaker 1: the great with the ball in his hands. He's kicking

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Speaker 1: punt returner as well, so I think just the amount

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Speaker 1: of yards he's going to have is going to be significant.

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Speaker 1: I think he's going to be targeted short as well.

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Speaker 1: So over twelve and a half receiving yards is my favorite,

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Speaker 1: but if you want to go over that eight and

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Speaker 1: a half longest, like that one as well. I talked

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Speaker 1: about Iowa State how we're replacing the two big receivers

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Speaker 1: in Higgins and Noel Chase. Soowel has had the most

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Speaker 1: buzz in camp as the number one wide receiver coming

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Speaker 1: in from ECU to Iowa State. His current number is

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Speaker 1: over four and a half on the receptions. That's the

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Speaker 1: one I would go. Obviously, Perish and Sigil gone for

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Speaker 1: Kansas State this year, so I think they lose a

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Speaker 1: little bit in that secondary, and if Sal's going to

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Speaker 1: be the leading target guy here in this offense, I

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Speaker 1: think over four and a half receptions is my favorite play,

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Speaker 1: but fifty eight and a half yards is not a

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Speaker 1: bad play either. Let's go to the Kansas game. Let's

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Speaker 1: go Jalen Daniels over half of a rushing touchdown. You

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Speaker 1: get receiving in here as well, so if there's some

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Speaker 1: tricky play, you'd get that side as well. But lots

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Speaker 1: of moving pieces on the Bulldogs defense in this game,

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Speaker 1: particularly up front. They've been running a nice physical camp.

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Speaker 1: But I think you know, you do everything well and

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Speaker 1: then you still have to count for Jalen Daniels and

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Speaker 1: he's dicey. He had six rushing touchdowns last year. It

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Speaker 1: is a bad year for him, So I do think

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Speaker 1: he's gonna rely on that athletic ability a little bit

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Speaker 1: more naturally this season, and I think they're gonna let

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Speaker 1: him run. Let's go with the over half of an interception.

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Speaker 1: So I said, we're not going too negative, but this

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Speaker 1: is over on a negative. And Eg Warner has been

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Speaker 1: announced the starter for Presno State. Yes, this is the

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Speaker 1: son of Kurt Warner. He had interceptions in seven of

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Speaker 1: eleven games last season. I don't you know, I don't

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Speaker 1: particularly expect him to play great in this game. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be surprised if we saw another quarterback. So if you

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Speaker 1: want to stay away for that reason, I would understand that.

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Speaker 1: But I think this is like, well, look, Warner is

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Speaker 1: the starter, so if he gets replaced, it's because he

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Speaker 1: threw a pick. So let's just go with the over

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Speaker 1: on that. So I'll take the over on that one

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Speaker 1: as well. I talked about how you know there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of moving pieces on the WKU front seven they

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Speaker 1: have no returning starters there. And I told you about

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Speaker 1: how Hunter Watson is a rushing quarterback. Forty five and

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Speaker 1: a half rushing yards is his number. He had thirty

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Speaker 1: seven against WKU and he left in the third quarter injured.

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Speaker 1: Last season. Lots of transfers on that front of the line,

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Speaker 1: and I just think that you know you're gonna see

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Speaker 1: Hunter Watson bail out and run a decent amount. Now,

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Speaker 1: I will remind you, and I look this up right,

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Speaker 1: that the sack stats counts negative rushing yard, So if

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Speaker 1: you would rather go for like a rushing touchdown for

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Speaker 1: Hunter Watson, I completely understand that call as well. And

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Speaker 1: then the last prop I'm going to take is my boy,

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Speaker 1: Maverick McIver with the quarterback for WKU over two and

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Speaker 1: a half passing touchdowns. I already talked about how there's

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Speaker 1: lots of experience here for him over a thousand pass

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Speaker 1: attempts in college, already sixty three passing touchdowns in his career,

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Speaker 1: and Sam Houston State is one hundred and thirty third

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Speaker 1: and returning defensive production. So that is going to be

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Speaker 1: my last pick. I hope you guys enjoyed it. Obviously

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Speaker 1: there will be a much more diverse show next week

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Speaker 1: with so many more games being played, but with only

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Speaker 1: five games, we handled the small slate quickly. That is

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Speaker 1: it for me. Good luck on your bets and I'll

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Speaker 1: see you guys next week. Taking ease to you.

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Speaker 2: Everybody, thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If

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