WEBVTT - Greg Grandin on how the Monroe Doctrine Became the Donroe Doctrine

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello and welcome to another episode of the Authoughts podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe. Isn't Joe? I love

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<v Speaker 2>doing American history episodes in part because I feel like

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<v Speaker 2>my own knowledge of American history is fairly simplistic. And

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<v Speaker 2>I do remember a huge culture shock when I went

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<v Speaker 2>from high school to college. And I think I told

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<v Speaker 2>this story before. So I went to college university in London,

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<v Speaker 2>and I had always heard the American Revolution described as

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<v Speaker 2>the American Revolution, right, and then as soon as.

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<v Speaker 3>I get to the UK, what did they call it?

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<v Speaker 3>What they call it?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, they call it, I think the American War of Independence,

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<v Speaker 2>which has a different tonality too, definitely, but it definitely

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<v Speaker 2>demonstrates just how subjective tensions, conflicts, and policies can actually

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<v Speaker 2>be in history, depending on who you're talking to. And

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to talk about not just a pretty subjective

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<v Speaker 2>American policy, but one that has been reinterpreted and amended

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<v Speaker 2>many many times.

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<v Speaker 4>In the past. Right.

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<v Speaker 5>So obviously for us this has been a venezuela week,

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<v Speaker 5>and there's all sorts of immediate questions that are sort

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<v Speaker 5>of most directly relevant to we've been talking about the

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<v Speaker 5>market elements mostly, we talked about oil, we talked about

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<v Speaker 5>the sovereign debt, et cetera. But then there's all these questions,

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<v Speaker 5>of course about international law and what is legitimate and

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<v Speaker 5>what is illegitimate. And I mean, I couldn't even believe

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<v Speaker 5>the headline when I saw it that we had arrested

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<v Speaker 5>I know, I was flabbergant.

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<v Speaker 3>I just the idea that.

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<v Speaker 5>If we'd arrested a head of state from another country

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<v Speaker 5>is just absolutely job smacking. And then people talk about

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<v Speaker 5>international law, and then they say, this international law even

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<v Speaker 5>exist and so forth, and what it feels like to

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<v Speaker 5>some extent truly uncharted territory here.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, uncharted territory. But people are drawing on a parallel, yes,

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<v Speaker 2>which is the Monroe doctrine. Yes, the Monroe doctrine of

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<v Speaker 2>I think it was eighteen twenty three, I want to say,

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<v Speaker 2>basically said that America would assert its dominance over the

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<v Speaker 2>entire American region. And since then it's changed a number

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<v Speaker 2>of times. But the way it's being talked about now

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<v Speaker 2>is as the Trump corollary or the Donroe doctrine, which

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<v Speaker 2>was described in the National Security Strategy Document that the

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<v Speaker 2>Trump administration put out back in December, and that one's

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<v Speaker 2>a little different. So we keep seeing these amendments to

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<v Speaker 2>the doctrine. By the way, I should just say, do

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<v Speaker 2>you remember back in twenty thirteen, John Kerry explicitly said

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<v Speaker 2>that the Monroe doctrine was over, it was dead.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't remember that.

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<v Speaker 2>And now it's back, it's arisen.

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<v Speaker 3>Some version of it is certainly back. You know.

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<v Speaker 5>It's very interesting because the US clearly has a longstanding

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<v Speaker 5>history of various operations, overt and covert, of involving itself,

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<v Speaker 5>shall we say, with the politics and domestic affairs of

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<v Speaker 5>our neighbors, particularly in the South and Central America and

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<v Speaker 5>so forth. I suppose any country is naturally going to

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<v Speaker 5>have some security interest in what's happening. It's proximity. I

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<v Speaker 5>don't think that itself is particularly weird. I really like

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<v Speaker 5>this term the Donro doctrine because there's two things. There's

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<v Speaker 5>this long standing history that the US wants to have

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<v Speaker 5>a role to play in everyone else's politics among our neighbors.

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<v Speaker 5>But then there's this other element with Donald Trump specifically,

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<v Speaker 5>where it feels like a lot of our policy and

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<v Speaker 5>principle is Essentially, he's the president and it's in his head,

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<v Speaker 5>and his ideas are legitimate because they're his ideas and

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<v Speaker 5>he's the president, so yes, there's precedent, there's norms and

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<v Speaker 5>so forth, and then there's this sort of novelty that

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<v Speaker 5>everyone's trying to read his mind.

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<v Speaker 3>And we're in this very very strange.

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<v Speaker 5>Situation which has come up on our last two episodes,

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<v Speaker 5>in which you have the president talking about oil.

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<v Speaker 2>And ex implicitly yeah, and yet people.

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<v Speaker 3>Say are like skeptical. It's very strange.

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<v Speaker 5>It's a very strange situation because you have torpiicly it's like, oh,

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<v Speaker 5>he admitted it, it's about oil, and yet everyone's like,

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<v Speaker 5>is there's something else in play beyond here.

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<v Speaker 3>It's the total inversion for.

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<v Speaker 5>How people have talked in the past about the legitimacy

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<v Speaker 5>or illegitimacy of how we involve ourselves internationally.

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<v Speaker 2>That was part of the original Monroe doctrine as well.

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<v Speaker 2>There was this weird tension between like pro democracy, anti colonialism,

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<v Speaker 2>keep the European powers out, yeah, and America basically kind

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<v Speaker 2>of creating its own in formal colonies. That tension has

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<v Speaker 2>always been there, and we should talk about that we

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<v Speaker 2>should talk about whether or not there might be, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>different strategies at play in Venezuela, different goals. And I'm

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<v Speaker 2>happy to say we do, in fact have the perfect guest.

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<v Speaker 2>We're going to be speaking with Greg Grandin. He is

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<v Speaker 2>a professor of history at Yale and the author of

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<v Speaker 2>the new book America America, a New History of the

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<v Speaker 2>New World. So Greg, welcome to odd Lots. Thanks so

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<v Speaker 2>much for coming on.

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<v Speaker 4>Oh thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 2>How important has the Monroe Doctrine actually been in the

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<v Speaker 2>history of American policy and development.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, it's certainly been influential, and it's certainly been cited

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<v Speaker 6>repeatedly over the years. I mean, first, I think we

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<v Speaker 6>need to back up and say exactly what makes it

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<v Speaker 6>a doctrine?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and we just never voted on, no court ratified it.

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<v Speaker 6>It didn't actually assume the status of doctrine until a

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<v Speaker 6>couple of decades after it was pronounced in eighteen twenty three,

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<v Speaker 6>when James Monroe was president at the time. And this

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<v Speaker 6>was around the time that most Spanish American nations were

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<v Speaker 6>breaking from Spain and their successful wars of independence, which

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<v Speaker 6>were much longer and dragged out than the US War

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<v Speaker 6>for Independence. By eighteen twenty three, it was fairly clear

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<v Speaker 6>that Spain was going to lose its empire, and the

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<v Speaker 6>United States finally decided that was going to issue a statement.

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<v Speaker 6>And you have to understand that the doctrine itself, or

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<v Speaker 6>Monroe's statement, it's really just a kind of you know,

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<v Speaker 6>four or five non contiguous paragraphs in the State of

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<v Speaker 6>the Union Address of six thousand words.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, you have to cut a.

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<v Speaker 6>Cherry pick through the State of the Union Address to

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<v Speaker 6>find what is the doctrine. And it's hesitant, it's cautious.

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<v Speaker 6>The United States wasn't really sure where it wanted to

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<v Speaker 6>land on any given issue, and there were obviously tensions

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<v Speaker 6>and differences of opinions within Monroe's cabinet. I mean, to

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<v Speaker 6>put it in more modern terms, you had isolationists, you

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<v Speaker 6>had internationalists, you had unilateralists, or you had different people

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<v Speaker 6>thinking of different ways on how the United.

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<v Speaker 4>States should address.

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<v Speaker 6>And deal with on the one hand, these new republics

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<v Speaker 6>that were coming into being in South America and in

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<v Speaker 6>Central America and in Mexico, and on the other hand

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<v Speaker 6>their former colonial rulers in Europe. And so it was

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<v Speaker 6>actually written by John Quincy Adams, who was Monroe's Secretary

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<v Speaker 6>of State, And as I said, it was insert in

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<v Speaker 6>different parts, and it's true, it is a bit of

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<v Speaker 6>a contradictory document. On the one hand, it announces that

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<v Speaker 6>the United States considers the independence of Latin America at

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<v Speaker 6>the time Spanish America to be irreversible, and that it

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<v Speaker 6>was recognizing a number of states that had established effective

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<v Speaker 6>sovereignty and unbroken with Spain. Did warned off Europe, not

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<v Speaker 6>just Spain, but any country Spain might recruit to help them,

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<v Speaker 6>or the Holy Roman Empire or Great Britain against trying

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<v Speaker 6>to conquer or reconquer the Americas, any part of the Americas.

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<v Speaker 6>So that's the kind of anti colonial part of the doctrine.

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<v Speaker 6>And again in quotation marks the doctrine. Then other paragraphs

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<v Speaker 6>said that the United States and Spanish America, being of

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<v Speaker 6>the Western hemisphere, shared certain special interests and ideals, although

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<v Speaker 6>it didn't specify what those interests and ideals were, but

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<v Speaker 6>people kind of presume they meant the difference between monarchy

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<v Speaker 6>and republicanism. But at least there was a kind of

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<v Speaker 6>gesture to a kind of shared fraternity of nations that

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<v Speaker 6>had common interests, and so that's another part of the

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<v Speaker 6>Monroe doctrine. And then there was the part that was

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<v Speaker 6>referenced that it didn't exactly grant the United States much

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<v Speaker 6>power in terms of leasing the hemisphere. It was a

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<v Speaker 6>vague sentence that said the United States would interpret events

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<v Speaker 6>that happened anywhere in the Western Hemisphere on how they

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<v Speaker 6>bear on the quote peace and happiness of the United States.

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<v Speaker 4>It was.

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<v Speaker 7>So so it was a document that could appeal to

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<v Speaker 7>a lot of different constituencies within the United States, like

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<v Speaker 7>Thomas Jefferson's expansionism, this notion that you know, the New

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<v Speaker 7>World was shared a certain unity of purpose.

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<v Speaker 6>John Quincy Adams was a famous isolationist and unilateralist, and

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<v Speaker 6>so there was this notion of the United States could

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<v Speaker 6>act if it wanted, if it's sort of threat. And

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<v Speaker 6>you have somebody like Henry Kilay who imagined a kind

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<v Speaker 6>of large American system, a mercantile system in which the

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<v Speaker 6>US would be a great manufacturing base in Latin America,

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<v Speaker 6>Spanish America would supply re sources in order to rival

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<v Speaker 6>in the United Kingdom and the Empires of Europe. But

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<v Speaker 6>the point being it really wasn't much of anything. Latin

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<v Speaker 6>Americans did like it. I mean, they had a lot

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<v Speaker 6>of time to read. It was a different period. There

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<v Speaker 6>were no iPhones, you know, people read closely and said, oh,

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<v Speaker 6>that's an interesting paragraph. And what they read and liked

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<v Speaker 6>mostly was they thought it was They read it as

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<v Speaker 6>a kind of anarchust brief for their own anti colonialism.

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<v Speaker 6>Spanish Americans were very much vocal in their idea that

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<v Speaker 6>the doctrine of conquest was no longer valid, the doctrine

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<v Speaker 6>of discovery was no longer valid. There was no undiscovered

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<v Speaker 6>land in the New World waiting for Europeans to stumble

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<v Speaker 6>upon and claim as their own, and they read the

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<v Speaker 6>Monroe Doctrine as largely supporting that position, especially the part

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<v Speaker 6>that warned Europe against trying to reconquer any countries that

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<v Speaker 6>had claimed their independence. But over the years it was

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<v Speaker 6>interpreted it in a different way. Politicians and diplomats, particularly

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<v Speaker 6>in skirmishes with Europe, say Great Britain, when Great Britain

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<v Speaker 6>wanted to build a canal through Central America. That was

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<v Speaker 6>around the time that those kind of vague, scattered remarks

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<v Speaker 6>were elevated to the level of doctrine, and it became

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<v Speaker 6>the Monroe Doctrine or the Doctrine of Monroe, and from

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<v Speaker 6>that point forward it was progressively incorporated into something we

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<v Speaker 6>might call customary law. I mean, again, what makes a

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<v Speaker 6>doctrine a doctrine and who gets to enforce it? It really

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<v Speaker 6>is just a question of power. It goes to what

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<v Speaker 6>you were talking about in the introduction about what is

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<v Speaker 6>international law and how is it enforced? I mean, most

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<v Speaker 6>countries have statements of principles. The United States gets its

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<v Speaker 6>own doctrine.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it's really interesting, isn't it, Because, like to some extent,

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<v Speaker 5>when I think about American involvement, it's like.

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<v Speaker 3>All around the world at any time.

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<v Speaker 5>We sort of feel the need to fight against communists, right,

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<v Speaker 5>that seems to be a very common thing, and fight

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<v Speaker 5>for democracies or any country that sort of has something

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<v Speaker 5>similar to our we have government or something like that.

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<v Speaker 5>We seem to be on principle we have to be

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<v Speaker 5>the ones or we feel compelled to intervene. And then

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<v Speaker 5>here is this geographical element that seems very different. Can

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<v Speaker 5>you talk a little bit about the intersection of the

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<v Speaker 5>geographical impulse to sort of exert your influence among your

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<v Speaker 5>neighbors and how that intersects with this other I don't

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<v Speaker 5>know what we call it, principle, a doctrine, etc. Where

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<v Speaker 5>there are just certain kinds of leaders that we don't like,

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<v Speaker 5>and when they're in power, we do what we can

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<v Speaker 5>to eliminate them.

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<v Speaker 6>Yes, and this ghost of the history of the United States,

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<v Speaker 6>its relationship to its own hemisphere and.

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<v Speaker 4>The power that it is exerted over the.

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<v Speaker 6>Latin America and Spanish American Brazil, and then efforts at

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<v Speaker 6>times to go global, to become a more global superpower.

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<v Speaker 6>There's you know, there's long different iterations of this in

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<v Speaker 6>which the United States kind of tries to escape the

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<v Speaker 6>boundaries of its hemisphere and become a world power at

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<v Speaker 6>different moments, and then and then it falls back to

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<v Speaker 6>the Western hemisphere. This has happened over and over again.

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<v Speaker 6>It happened with the Great Depression. It happened in some

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<v Speaker 6>ways with you know, after Vietnam, the United States turned

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<v Speaker 6>back to Latin America. It happened after the certainly after

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<v Speaker 6>the catastrophic War on Terror. I mean, in many ways,

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<v Speaker 6>what's happening now with Trump is an example of this,

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<v Speaker 6>this kind of you know, Trump is his own problem

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<v Speaker 6>and a lot of the things that are wrong is

0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:51.480
<v Speaker 6>of his doing, but he did inherit a country that

0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:55.440
<v Speaker 6>was in profound crisis as a result of the catastrophic

0:13:55.480 --> 0:14:00.719
<v Speaker 6>War on Terror, the financial crisis, the inability of politicians

0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:04.559
<v Speaker 6>to deal with corporate wealth and inequality. And so there

0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:07.319
<v Speaker 6>is a kind of turning back to Latin America. And

0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:09.280
<v Speaker 6>we can get to this a little bit later if

0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:12.280
<v Speaker 6>you want. But Trump's actions in Venezuela are a perfect

0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:15.439
<v Speaker 6>example of what happens when you know the United States,

0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:19.120
<v Speaker 6>you know it's bid to go global, fails, and it

0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:21.680
<v Speaker 6>has to return to its hemisphere. And that's why the

0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:25.080
<v Speaker 6>Monroe doctrine is so important. Latin America is the first

0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:27.720
<v Speaker 6>place in which the United States got a sense of

0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:30.680
<v Speaker 6>itself as an overseas power. You know, it was able

0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:34.680
<v Speaker 6>to project its power, its financial power, it's cultural power,

0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:39.280
<v Speaker 6>it's military power beyond its own borders. And even saying

0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:41.880
<v Speaker 6>that is a little bit tricky because the United States

0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:44.560
<v Speaker 6>borders were always changing. I mean the United States borders,

0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:48.840
<v Speaker 6>the expansive nature of the United States where it actually

0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:52.640
<v Speaker 6>took Texas and took Mexico. So it wasn't just that

0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:55.880
<v Speaker 6>it was dealing with Latin America. It was literally gobbling

0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:59.000
<v Speaker 6>up Latin America on its way to the Pacific, but

0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:04.160
<v Speaker 6>setting that as working within the hemisphere and learning how

0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:10.040
<v Speaker 6>to deal with other nations. Latin America is absolutely central

0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:11.720
<v Speaker 6>to that, and that's one of the reasons why the

0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:16.440
<v Speaker 6>Monroe Doctrine rises in importance, because it supposedly provides a.

0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:18.560
<v Speaker 4>Kind of guideline for that.

0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:22.400
<v Speaker 6>Now, over the years that Monroe Doctrine itself has expanded,

0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:28.360
<v Speaker 6>Presidents explicitly expanded over a boundary dispute in Venezuela and

0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:31.400
<v Speaker 6>Guyana in which the United States was supporting Venezuela and

0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:35.960
<v Speaker 6>Great Britain was supporting British Guyana. Grover Cleveland declared that

0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:40.040
<v Speaker 6>the Monroe Doctrine granted the United States absolute sovereignty over

0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:44.560
<v Speaker 6>the whole Western hemisphere. That's a pretty big jump from

0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:48.000
<v Speaker 6>you know, we're gonna interpret any event that happened somewhere

0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:49.440
<v Speaker 6>on our peace and happiness.

0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:51.920
<v Speaker 4>There's on a peason happiness.

0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:55.120
<v Speaker 6>To buy Fiat our will is law in the hemisphere.

0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:59.920
<v Speaker 6>And then in nineteen oh four, along similar lines, Theodore Rosa,

0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.520
<v Speaker 6>when he was president, he expanded the doctrine with his

0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:08.160
<v Speaker 6>own corollary to what he called international police power. To

0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:13.200
<v Speaker 6>suppress chronic wrongdoing in Latin America. Now, I must say

0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:17.480
<v Speaker 6>that most of that chronic wrongdoing was provoked by US

0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:22.800
<v Speaker 6>banks and US mercenaries and US oil extractors. And you know,

0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:26.040
<v Speaker 6>there's a long history and of like forcing loans on

0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:29.360
<v Speaker 6>countries that they can't pay off, and it leads to

0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:32.040
<v Speaker 6>all sorts of instability than civil war.

0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:36.200
<v Speaker 4>And then the US government is called in to.

0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:40.359
<v Speaker 6>Settle the problem that these private interests created. So Roosevelt

0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:45.640
<v Speaker 6>expands the Monroe doctrine into a kind of standing universal

0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:48.680
<v Speaker 6>police warrant that will allow the United States that act

0:16:48.680 --> 0:17:05.000
<v Speaker 6>whenever it will and whenever it wants.

0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:11.400
<v Speaker 2>So didn't FDR also reinterpret it, But it didn't last

0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:13.520
<v Speaker 2>long another Roosevelt reinterpretation.

0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:18.320
<v Speaker 6>No, not really, but FDR actually reverse course one hundred

0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:19.120
<v Speaker 6>and eighty degrees.

0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:19.600
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:23.879
<v Speaker 6>In nineteen thirty three, he renounced the right of the

0:17:24.000 --> 0:17:27.840
<v Speaker 6>United States to intervene in his longstanding demands by Latin

0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:32.720
<v Speaker 6>American jurists and politicians and diplomats to give up the

0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:35.480
<v Speaker 6>right of conquest. I mean, the United States continued to

0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:38.240
<v Speaker 6>hold on to the right of conquest throughout the nineteenth century.

0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:43.640
<v Speaker 6>Basically justified the war with Mexico Indian removal. The right

0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:46.639
<v Speaker 6>of conquest was taught in US textbooks up until the

0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:51.040
<v Speaker 6>nineteen twenties. Latin America had revoked the right of conquest

0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:55.080
<v Speaker 6>with its independence. Because Spanish American nations came into the

0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:59.199
<v Speaker 6>world together already a league of nations, seven nations that

0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:01.359
<v Speaker 6>had to learn to live with each other on a

0:18:01.400 --> 0:18:06.240
<v Speaker 6>crowded continent. The United States came into being a single

0:18:06.359 --> 0:18:10.439
<v Speaker 6>nation on the eastern coast of a great land mass

0:18:10.480 --> 0:18:12.040
<v Speaker 6>that it imagined as empty.

0:18:12.080 --> 0:18:13.359
<v Speaker 4>Obviously it wasn't empty.

0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:16.879
<v Speaker 6>There was Native Americans, that was Mexican, and spanions, but

0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:18.760
<v Speaker 6>the United States. There was no doubt that the United

0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:21.040
<v Speaker 6>States was going to reach the Pacific, and it held

0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:23.840
<v Speaker 6>on and use the doctrine of conquests in order to

0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:27.560
<v Speaker 6>justify taking all of that land. Latin America was constantly

0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:30.000
<v Speaker 6>trying to force the United States to accept that the

0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:33.600
<v Speaker 6>doctrine of conquest was abrogated, was void, and it wasn't

0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:35.960
<v Speaker 6>until nineteen thirty three that it did. And it was

0:18:36.080 --> 0:18:40.080
<v Speaker 6>Roosevelt who did that, and he recognized the absolute sovereignty

0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:43.240
<v Speaker 6>of Latin American nations and he gave up the right

0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:49.119
<v Speaker 6>of intervention. And that was an enormous turnaround in US power.

0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:52.159
<v Speaker 6>It didn't weaken US power by any means. It actually

0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:54.840
<v Speaker 6>strengthened it because I focused it. It taught the United

0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:59.880
<v Speaker 6>States how to exercise power more efficiently, and it organ

0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:01.520
<v Speaker 6>Latin America.

0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:04.119
<v Speaker 4>It was ten years of goodwill.

0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:07.800
<v Speaker 6>That really got Latin America kind of on board for

0:19:07.880 --> 0:19:10.919
<v Speaker 6>the coming war against fascism. There was a lot of

0:19:10.960 --> 0:19:15.960
<v Speaker 6>fear among strategists within the Franklin Roosevelt administration that all

0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:18.560
<v Speaker 6>of Latin America could have gone the way of Spain.

0:19:19.200 --> 0:19:22.879
<v Speaker 6>I mean, a lot of the sociological variables that led

0:19:22.960 --> 0:19:24.720
<v Speaker 6>to the rise of fascism or.

0:19:24.640 --> 0:19:30.080
<v Speaker 4>Falangeism in Spain were present in Latin America. There was a.

0:19:30.200 --> 0:19:35.600
<v Speaker 8>Large group of servile peasants, small group of land owners,

0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:43.520
<v Speaker 8>patrician conservative Catholics, increasingly militant unions and peasants threatening the

0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:45.560
<v Speaker 8>power of the landed class.

0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:48.520
<v Speaker 6>You know, that was Spain, but was also Latin America

0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:52.680
<v Speaker 6>writ large. And if Latin America fell to Falangism, then

0:19:52.920 --> 0:19:55.360
<v Speaker 6>you know, the United States would be kind of cornered

0:19:55.440 --> 0:20:02.560
<v Speaker 6>between Nazism, fascism, and Falangism. Roosevelt's conceding to Latin America's

0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:06.280
<v Speaker 6>demand to give up the right. Intervention basically tilted the

0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:09.240
<v Speaker 6>playing field to the left in Latin America. You know,

0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:15.480
<v Speaker 6>Roosevelt tolerated economic nationalists. He let revolutionaries in Mexico nationalized

0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:20.359
<v Speaker 6>standard oil and appropriate massive amounts of US owned property,

0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:24.400
<v Speaker 6>and they created an enormous goodwill and set the stage

0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:27.480
<v Speaker 6>for the United States's entrance into World War II from

0:20:27.480 --> 0:20:30.479
<v Speaker 6>a position of strengthen you and continental unity.

0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:35.040
<v Speaker 5>So you mentioned, okay at various times the jurists in

0:20:35.280 --> 0:20:37.840
<v Speaker 5>Latin America, and they push back against this notion of

0:20:37.880 --> 0:20:41.680
<v Speaker 5>American absolute sovereignty in these fights. This gets to a

0:20:41.800 --> 0:20:45.119
<v Speaker 5>question I see it debated on Twitter a lot. What

0:20:45.160 --> 0:20:49.000
<v Speaker 5>do you say to someone who says international law doesn't exist?

0:20:49.080 --> 0:20:52.320
<v Speaker 5>What is international law doesn't exist? And how is this

0:20:52.440 --> 0:20:53.679
<v Speaker 5>term useful or not?

0:20:54.119 --> 0:20:57.760
<v Speaker 6>Well, I'm an a historian, I'm not a lawyer a jurist,

0:20:58.200 --> 0:21:01.400
<v Speaker 6>so I tend to see things in turns of power relations.

0:21:01.480 --> 0:21:04.960
<v Speaker 6>So I think I see law as a moral venue

0:21:05.200 --> 0:21:08.680
<v Speaker 6>that is created, that creates a set of normative principles

0:21:09.320 --> 0:21:12.840
<v Speaker 6>in which people can fight over. So, you know, obviously

0:21:12.920 --> 0:21:16.520
<v Speaker 6>the international law doesn't exist in some void in which

0:21:16.600 --> 0:21:18.200
<v Speaker 6>absolute justices is.

0:21:18.119 --> 0:21:18.879
<v Speaker 4>Going to happen.

0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:22.200
<v Speaker 6>You know, the most powerful country decides the exception, and

0:21:22.280 --> 0:21:25.680
<v Speaker 6>you know, the United States. To the degree that countries

0:21:25.720 --> 0:21:29.399
<v Speaker 6>like the United States submit to a system of international law,

0:21:29.840 --> 0:21:33.080
<v Speaker 6>it usually was during moments of weakness, like when Roosevelt

0:21:33.119 --> 0:21:35.159
<v Speaker 6>did it in nineteen thirty three, at the height of

0:21:35.160 --> 0:21:39.239
<v Speaker 6>the Great Depression and with fascism on the rise. But

0:21:39.280 --> 0:21:42.600
<v Speaker 6>it does create these norms and these principles that people

0:21:42.640 --> 0:21:46.640
<v Speaker 6>fight and argue over, and so yes, and the liberal

0:21:46.680 --> 0:21:51.720
<v Speaker 6>international law order that has supposedly governed the world since

0:21:52.200 --> 0:21:55.760
<v Speaker 6>the creation of the United Nations in nineteen forty five.

0:21:56.480 --> 0:22:02.399
<v Speaker 6>The hypocrisies and the variances and the exceptions are many,

0:22:03.000 --> 0:22:07.439
<v Speaker 6>and there's always workarounds, and the United States and the

0:22:07.480 --> 0:22:11.720
<v Speaker 6>Soviet Union certainly found ways to skirt, you know, any

0:22:11.800 --> 0:22:14.880
<v Speaker 6>kind of limits that were placed on them by international law.

0:22:15.320 --> 0:22:17.800
<v Speaker 6>But it does kind of create a venue right, a

0:22:18.000 --> 0:22:22.560
<v Speaker 6>moral arena in which right and wrong could be understood

0:22:22.600 --> 0:22:26.159
<v Speaker 6>and argued over. You know, there's very other, very little

0:22:26.800 --> 0:22:31.720
<v Speaker 6>recourse for poor and weak nations to defend themselves. I mean,

0:22:31.760 --> 0:22:34.359
<v Speaker 6>we can go back to ducidities right, the strong to

0:22:34.359 --> 0:22:36.840
<v Speaker 6>do what they will, and the weak suffer what they must,

0:22:37.520 --> 0:22:40.119
<v Speaker 6>and the conceit that there is such a thing as

0:22:40.160 --> 0:22:45.080
<v Speaker 6>international law that is somehow transcendent of power relations is

0:22:45.359 --> 0:22:47.480
<v Speaker 6>you know, it might just be a conceit, but it

0:22:47.640 --> 0:22:51.680
<v Speaker 6>still at least creates terms on which nations could deal

0:22:51.760 --> 0:22:54.720
<v Speaker 6>with each other. And you know, and again Latin America

0:22:54.720 --> 0:22:58.000
<v Speaker 6>and the United States is absolutely a perfect example of that.

0:22:58.160 --> 0:23:03.240
<v Speaker 6>For Latin America's commit meant to sovereignty and cooperative relations

0:23:03.400 --> 0:23:08.520
<v Speaker 6>was largely forged in relationships living under what was becoming

0:23:08.640 --> 0:23:12.600
<v Speaker 6>the most powerful nation and world history, as it moved

0:23:12.640 --> 0:23:16.160
<v Speaker 6>across the Pacific, as it took Texas, as it took Mexico,

0:23:16.240 --> 0:23:19.160
<v Speaker 6>as it took Cuba, as it took Puerto Rico, as

0:23:19.160 --> 0:23:22.880
<v Speaker 6>it took Panama. You know, so you had these jurists

0:23:22.920 --> 0:23:25.639
<v Speaker 6>like writing law books and coming up with these legal

0:23:25.720 --> 0:23:29.679
<v Speaker 6>principles and the way they get implemented though often is

0:23:29.720 --> 0:23:33.640
<v Speaker 6>really about power. So you know, Argentine the legal theorist,

0:23:33.720 --> 0:23:37.720
<v Speaker 6>for instance, Luis Drago, for instance, at the early twentieth century,

0:23:38.240 --> 0:23:43.520
<v Speaker 6>when Italian and British and German war boats were showing

0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:47.440
<v Speaker 6>up at Venezuela trying to collect debt, debt that had

0:23:47.480 --> 0:23:51.640
<v Speaker 6>gone back to the colony that European banks were claiming

0:23:51.680 --> 0:23:55.040
<v Speaker 6>that Venezuela owed because of the Spanish crown, you know,

0:23:55.200 --> 0:23:59.280
<v Speaker 6>contracted loans in seventeen seventy six, and whenever they did,

0:24:00.160 --> 0:24:03.639
<v Speaker 6>Drago issued a principle, the Drago doctrine, that you cannot

0:24:03.680 --> 0:24:08.000
<v Speaker 6>use coercion to collect debt. Now, the United States collected

0:24:08.040 --> 0:24:09.360
<v Speaker 6>plenty of debt through.

0:24:09.119 --> 0:24:10.320
<v Speaker 4>Coercion, and we could.

0:24:10.960 --> 0:24:13.040
<v Speaker 6>They can look at Donald Trump and what's going on

0:24:13.119 --> 0:24:16.479
<v Speaker 6>in Venezuela right now. But the United States kind of

0:24:16.640 --> 0:24:20.000
<v Speaker 6>liked the Drago doctrinn They didn't want Italian and German

0:24:20.160 --> 0:24:25.800
<v Speaker 6>and British warships flitting around the Caribbean bombing the coast

0:24:25.840 --> 0:24:29.320
<v Speaker 6>of Colombia or Venezuela trying to seize hold of the

0:24:29.359 --> 0:24:32.800
<v Speaker 6>custom house to get the receipts. They thought that, okay,

0:24:32.880 --> 0:24:35.640
<v Speaker 6>so we'll support the Drago doctrine. This, this will give

0:24:35.720 --> 0:24:39.000
<v Speaker 6>us a leverage and keeping Europe out of our backyard.

0:24:39.440 --> 0:24:42.000
<v Speaker 6>So you kind of see the back and forth between

0:24:42.119 --> 0:24:47.000
<v Speaker 6>law as a kind of moral principle that transcends social power.

0:24:47.080 --> 0:24:49.720
<v Speaker 6>But then it's hot, you know, it's obviously subordinated and

0:24:49.880 --> 0:25:03.400
<v Speaker 6>implemented through social power.

0:25:08.080 --> 0:25:11.680
<v Speaker 2>What's your sense of the actual goals behind the Venezuela

0:25:11.800 --> 0:25:15.400
<v Speaker 2>move because if you look at the National Security Strategy document,

0:25:15.600 --> 0:25:20.800
<v Speaker 2>they talk about the US reasserting its pre eminence in

0:25:20.840 --> 0:25:23.840
<v Speaker 2>the Western hemisphere. And I don't know how you measure

0:25:24.119 --> 0:25:28.400
<v Speaker 2>pre eminence, right, that seems a pretty broad term. Meanwhile,

0:25:28.440 --> 0:25:33.040
<v Speaker 2>Trump has talked very explicitly about Venezuelan oil belonging to

0:25:33.119 --> 0:25:36.960
<v Speaker 2>the US. There's no regime change on the horizon. They're

0:25:37.000 --> 0:25:41.200
<v Speaker 2>not pressing for that. So what is the ultimate goal

0:25:41.400 --> 0:25:43.120
<v Speaker 2>of all of this, What are they aiming for?

0:25:43.840 --> 0:25:46.320
<v Speaker 6>Well, you know, it's odd to say, as I said earlier,

0:25:46.680 --> 0:25:49.680
<v Speaker 6>Trump is doing what a number of its predecessors have

0:25:49.840 --> 0:25:53.800
<v Speaker 6>done during moments of the US kind of recession of

0:25:53.920 --> 0:25:56.840
<v Speaker 6>US power in the world. They turned back to Latin America.

0:25:57.640 --> 0:26:00.960
<v Speaker 6>But in some ways it's pure Trump, right, It's just.

0:26:00.920 --> 0:26:05.920
<v Speaker 4>This theatrical spectacle. You know, he said it was about oil.

0:26:05.960 --> 0:26:09.000
<v Speaker 6>Well, first it was about immigration, then it was about gangs,

0:26:09.040 --> 0:26:11.680
<v Speaker 6>then it was about fent and oil and drugs, and

0:26:11.280 --> 0:26:15.040
<v Speaker 6>then he landed on oil, getting our oil back. Oil

0:26:15.160 --> 0:26:17.760
<v Speaker 6>is trading at an all time low. Maybe not an

0:26:17.800 --> 0:26:20.280
<v Speaker 6>all time low, but it's pretty low. The market is

0:26:20.520 --> 0:26:23.760
<v Speaker 6>filled glotted with oil, and to get Venezuela back online

0:26:23.880 --> 0:26:26.440
<v Speaker 6>is going to cost an enormous amount of capital investment,

0:26:26.520 --> 0:26:28.439
<v Speaker 6>and there's not a lot of oil companies that are

0:26:28.520 --> 0:26:31.160
<v Speaker 6>rushing you're going to rush into Venezuela, then do that?

0:26:32.000 --> 0:26:32.159
<v Speaker 4>You know.

0:26:32.240 --> 0:26:34.760
<v Speaker 6>I think Trump there was just playing to his base.

0:26:34.920 --> 0:26:37.000
<v Speaker 6>I think he was, you know, I think his base

0:26:37.160 --> 0:26:40.520
<v Speaker 6>likes the idea of Trump as a pirate, Trump as

0:26:40.560 --> 0:26:43.560
<v Speaker 6>a colonial plunderer, you know, and.

0:26:43.240 --> 0:26:44.840
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, yeah, we'll get our oil back.

0:26:45.320 --> 0:26:47.200
<v Speaker 6>You know, just like with the Iraq war in two

0:26:47.240 --> 0:26:50.320
<v Speaker 6>thousand and three, There's always ways to get oil, right,

0:26:50.359 --> 0:26:51.840
<v Speaker 6>There's many ways to get oil.

0:26:52.000 --> 0:26:52.960
<v Speaker 4>Like, you don't have to.

0:26:53.320 --> 0:26:56.960
<v Speaker 6>Start a global war on terror in order to secure

0:26:56.960 --> 0:26:59.480
<v Speaker 6>Iraqi oil. You could have just you know, made a

0:26:59.520 --> 0:27:02.240
<v Speaker 6>deal with I'm saying and got the oil. You could

0:27:02.280 --> 0:27:04.400
<v Speaker 6>have did the same thing with you know. So material

0:27:04.480 --> 0:27:08.800
<v Speaker 6>interests are always understood through a prism of ideology, and

0:27:08.880 --> 0:27:11.240
<v Speaker 6>so part of it was that Venezuela has been in

0:27:11.320 --> 0:27:12.600
<v Speaker 6>crisis for a long time.

0:27:12.640 --> 0:27:15.080
<v Speaker 4>And that's a whole nother story for a whole nother show.

0:27:15.880 --> 0:27:18.600
<v Speaker 6>And you know, a hegemon like the United States can't

0:27:18.600 --> 0:27:21.640
<v Speaker 6>have that kind of crisis. I mean, millions of Venezuelans

0:27:21.640 --> 0:27:23.439
<v Speaker 6>were fleeing the country I mean, you don't have to

0:27:23.440 --> 0:27:27.000
<v Speaker 6>be carrying water for Trump's nativism and its border policies

0:27:27.040 --> 0:27:30.119
<v Speaker 6>at all to say that that kind of disruption and

0:27:30.160 --> 0:27:33.040
<v Speaker 6>that kind of chaos can't go on forever in a

0:27:33.119 --> 0:27:36.919
<v Speaker 6>regional hedgemon's hinterland, and so you have to kind of

0:27:36.960 --> 0:27:39.399
<v Speaker 6>do something. The question is what are you going to do?

0:27:39.560 --> 0:27:42.800
<v Speaker 6>And Trump seems to like these targeted attacks, right, whether

0:27:42.800 --> 0:27:46.520
<v Speaker 6>they're in Iran, whether in Nigeria. You know, these one

0:27:46.560 --> 0:27:49.119
<v Speaker 6>and done attacks, and I think he was sold on

0:27:49.160 --> 0:27:51.200
<v Speaker 6>the idea that, you know, if they just took out

0:27:51.280 --> 0:27:55.359
<v Speaker 6>Maduro and left the Maduda state intact, because it is

0:27:55.520 --> 0:28:00.440
<v Speaker 6>very much ingrained and embedded in Venezuelan society. I think

0:28:00.480 --> 0:28:03.560
<v Speaker 6>there were a couple of intelligent people in Marco Rubio's

0:28:04.040 --> 0:28:06.560
<v Speaker 6>State department that didn't want to see a repeat of

0:28:06.600 --> 0:28:10.840
<v Speaker 6>two thousand and three with what happened after Debeedification in.

0:28:10.680 --> 0:28:12.440
<v Speaker 4>Iraq, the complete chaos.

0:28:12.680 --> 0:28:15.239
<v Speaker 6>So Trump was convinced that, you know, you do this

0:28:15.280 --> 0:28:17.560
<v Speaker 6>one and done thing and then you just kind of

0:28:17.680 --> 0:28:20.840
<v Speaker 6>continue to threadn in the country in order to it

0:28:21.320 --> 0:28:26.600
<v Speaker 6>corresponds to his way of being. There's no morality, there's

0:28:26.720 --> 0:28:31.360
<v Speaker 6>no normative sense, there's no idealism. You know, normally when

0:28:31.520 --> 0:28:36.200
<v Speaker 6>presidents turned back to Latin America to kind of regroup

0:28:36.320 --> 0:28:41.200
<v Speaker 6>or rebalance after global crises, they kind of come up

0:28:41.280 --> 0:28:47.040
<v Speaker 6>with new kind of world views to widen their electoral base,

0:28:47.240 --> 0:28:50.800
<v Speaker 6>that deepen their coalition to you know, they try to

0:28:50.880 --> 0:28:52.280
<v Speaker 6>create a sense of hegemony.

0:28:52.400 --> 0:28:52.560
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:28:52.640 --> 0:28:56.600
<v Speaker 6>So you had FDR using Latin America to put forth

0:28:56.640 --> 0:29:01.520
<v Speaker 6>a kind of social democratic continental New Deal. Then Reagan

0:29:02.080 --> 0:29:08.200
<v Speaker 6>after Vietnam a kind of muscular anti communist liberalism, but

0:29:08.600 --> 0:29:12.680
<v Speaker 6>understood in moral terms, kind of reassertion of American purpose.

0:29:13.320 --> 0:29:16.840
<v Speaker 6>American sets of itself as a defender of world freedom,

0:29:17.480 --> 0:29:21.680
<v Speaker 6>you know, and these become kind of governing ideologies that

0:29:21.760 --> 0:29:24.880
<v Speaker 6>are durable. They last, I mean, the New Deal coalition

0:29:25.080 --> 0:29:29.680
<v Speaker 6>lasted for decades up until the nineteen seventies. Reaganism lasted,

0:29:29.800 --> 0:29:33.400
<v Speaker 6>you know, at least until Baraco bum if not even

0:29:33.600 --> 0:29:37.719
<v Speaker 6>even further. In terms of the worldview, I mean, Trump

0:29:37.800 --> 0:29:42.000
<v Speaker 6>isn't even trying to cobble together a new worldview, right,

0:29:42.040 --> 0:29:44.960
<v Speaker 6>Trump isn't coming up with any kind of you know,

0:29:45.360 --> 0:29:47.640
<v Speaker 6>he's not doing it for freedom. He's not doing it

0:29:47.680 --> 0:29:50.560
<v Speaker 6>for individual rights. He's not he's certainly not doing it

0:29:50.680 --> 0:29:54.920
<v Speaker 6>for social democracy. You know, he's demanding tribute, right and

0:29:55.120 --> 0:29:58.360
<v Speaker 6>just trying to turn Venezuela into a vassal state. And

0:29:58.400 --> 0:30:02.760
<v Speaker 6>I think that speaks to the moral emptiness of him

0:30:03.040 --> 0:30:05.959
<v Speaker 6>and his and his political movement.

0:30:06.520 --> 0:30:07.600
<v Speaker 4>And Reagan and.

0:30:07.600 --> 0:30:12.560
<v Speaker 6>FDR presided over majoritarian movements, right, they won overwhelmingly at

0:30:12.600 --> 0:30:15.760
<v Speaker 6>the electoral you know, Trump pretty much is running a

0:30:15.800 --> 0:30:19.760
<v Speaker 6>minority movement that is only in power because of the

0:30:20.200 --> 0:30:24.720
<v Speaker 6>anti majoritarian political structure of the United States and Trump's

0:30:24.800 --> 0:30:28.920
<v Speaker 6>dominance of the Republican Party. So he doesn't seem interested

0:30:28.960 --> 0:30:32.040
<v Speaker 6>in all in turning trump Ism into a governing coalition.

0:30:32.200 --> 0:30:34.760
<v Speaker 6>He just wants to continue to stoke the culture wars,

0:30:35.240 --> 0:30:39.440
<v Speaker 6>continue to you know, stoke the grievances of tribal nationalism

0:30:39.520 --> 0:30:43.600
<v Speaker 6>of the American Firsts, and hence the Monroe doctrine, you know,

0:30:43.680 --> 0:30:46.600
<v Speaker 6>to bring it back to the Monroe doctrine, the Monroe

0:30:46.640 --> 0:30:51.040
<v Speaker 6>doctrine and American First nationalism. There was always a strong

0:30:51.160 --> 0:30:56.160
<v Speaker 6>kind of correlation between the two American First nationalists, right,

0:30:56.200 --> 0:30:58.800
<v Speaker 6>even the pre Trump ones, the ones from the nineteen

0:30:58.840 --> 0:31:01.920
<v Speaker 6>twenties and leading up into World War Two, they liked

0:31:01.960 --> 0:31:06.960
<v Speaker 6>the Monroe doctrine because it wasn't universalist. It wasn't international law,

0:31:07.160 --> 0:31:12.720
<v Speaker 6>it was customary law specifically related to US power within

0:31:12.800 --> 0:31:17.200
<v Speaker 6>its hemisphere. And so the Monroe doctrine. It makes sense

0:31:17.400 --> 0:31:22.000
<v Speaker 6>that Trump, as the standard bearer of today's iteration of

0:31:22.080 --> 0:31:27.120
<v Speaker 6>America first nationalism, would latch on to the Monroe doctrine

0:31:27.200 --> 0:31:30.760
<v Speaker 6>as a kind of substitute for liberal internationalism.

0:31:31.000 --> 0:31:31.280
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:31:31.360 --> 0:31:34.480
<v Speaker 5>I think this is maybe the most fascinating element of all,

0:31:35.040 --> 0:31:40.040
<v Speaker 5>the complete lack of pretense, really, right, And obviously you

0:31:40.160 --> 0:31:44.720
<v Speaker 5>mentioned at various times international policy has had some storyline.

0:31:44.760 --> 0:31:46.120
<v Speaker 5>We all know what the story all. We were going

0:31:46.160 --> 0:31:48.880
<v Speaker 5>to turn Iraq into a democracy, and then that would

0:31:48.920 --> 0:31:51.160
<v Speaker 5>spread throughout the Middle East, and then there would be

0:31:51.160 --> 0:31:53.600
<v Speaker 5>other democracies and then be rich, would be stable, et cetera.

0:31:53.680 --> 0:31:57.320
<v Speaker 5>There's some story I think that is so striking about

0:31:57.480 --> 0:32:00.560
<v Speaker 5>trump Ism, or at least this particular move, just sort

0:32:00.600 --> 0:32:03.840
<v Speaker 5>of the complete lack of like a broader story you

0:32:03.960 --> 0:32:08.040
<v Speaker 5>mentioned also, of course, which I think is notable about

0:32:08.040 --> 0:32:10.720
<v Speaker 5>Trump foreign policy, this appeal of these sort of one

0:32:10.760 --> 0:32:13.400
<v Speaker 5>and done things, because okay, there seems to be a

0:32:13.560 --> 0:32:16.360
<v Speaker 5>post of rock, this sort of national backlash towards or

0:32:16.400 --> 0:32:20.360
<v Speaker 5>certainly post Afghanistan, this backlash towards boots on the ground,

0:32:20.520 --> 0:32:23.480
<v Speaker 5>long wars, forever wars, et cetera. But there also does

0:32:23.520 --> 0:32:25.960
<v Speaker 5>seem to be this impulse of just yeah, but we

0:32:26.000 --> 0:32:28.200
<v Speaker 5>still want to do something powerful, we still want to

0:32:28.440 --> 0:32:30.120
<v Speaker 5>show that we're tough. And so then the way that

0:32:30.120 --> 0:32:32.600
<v Speaker 5>they solved the problem is by these one offs. We're

0:32:32.600 --> 0:32:35.720
<v Speaker 5>gonna do a one bombing run in Iran, We're going

0:32:35.760 --> 0:32:38.600
<v Speaker 5>to arrest a foreign leader. Is there any precedent for

0:32:38.640 --> 0:32:41.280
<v Speaker 5>that or is this truly like sort of feel uncharted

0:32:41.360 --> 0:32:44.720
<v Speaker 5>territory when you think about these arcs of foreign policy?

0:32:44.920 --> 0:32:45.160
<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

0:32:45.680 --> 0:32:48.120
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, Well, in Latin America, there are two precedents. One

0:32:48.200 --> 0:32:53.320
<v Speaker 6>is obviously Manuel Loriega. In nineteen eighty nine, when George H. W.

0:32:53.440 --> 0:32:58.080
<v Speaker 6>Bush sent about thirty thousand Marines in to capture Noriega

0:32:58.520 --> 0:33:02.520
<v Speaker 6>on a warrant, basically to arrest. It was considered a

0:33:02.560 --> 0:33:07.040
<v Speaker 6>police action, and that's how it was legally justified. Noriega

0:33:07.680 --> 0:33:09.840
<v Speaker 6>was an ally of the United States. He was a

0:33:09.880 --> 0:33:13.160
<v Speaker 6>CIA asset in the nineteen eighties. He was very much

0:33:13.200 --> 0:33:16.840
<v Speaker 6>involved in the complexities of Iran contra, but he played

0:33:16.880 --> 0:33:19.240
<v Speaker 6>all sides against the other. I think he was selling

0:33:19.400 --> 0:33:23.920
<v Speaker 6>information and intelligence to Cuba. He was also working with Mossade,

0:33:24.640 --> 0:33:27.880
<v Speaker 6>and when the Cold War ended and the Berlin Wall fell,

0:33:28.080 --> 0:33:31.400
<v Speaker 6>his usefulness had largely come to an end, and the

0:33:31.480 --> 0:33:34.440
<v Speaker 6>United States decided that they were gonna take a mat.

0:33:34.480 --> 0:33:37.240
<v Speaker 6>There was a sy Hirsch report in the New York

0:33:37.280 --> 0:33:41.480
<v Speaker 6>Times that detailed his deep involvement in drug running and

0:33:41.520 --> 0:33:44.600
<v Speaker 6>it couldn't be ignored anymore, and so they went in

0:33:44.680 --> 0:33:48.200
<v Speaker 6>and they arrested him. So that's one president. A lesser

0:33:48.320 --> 0:33:52.040
<v Speaker 6>discussed one is in Haiti. In two thousand and five,

0:33:52.160 --> 0:33:56.520
<v Speaker 6>Jean Patron Aristeid was president of Haiti and there was

0:33:56.840 --> 0:33:59.320
<v Speaker 6>a US back coup. But it was one of these

0:33:59.360 --> 0:34:03.640
<v Speaker 6>coups that were kind of carried out by democracy promotion

0:34:03.920 --> 0:34:08.000
<v Speaker 6>organizations that were funded by AID and the National Endowment

0:34:08.040 --> 0:34:12.800
<v Speaker 6>for Democracy that destabilized the country to the point where

0:34:12.960 --> 0:34:19.680
<v Speaker 6>Iristeed couldn't govern and George W. Bush sent marines in

0:34:19.960 --> 0:34:23.120
<v Speaker 6>and basically put a gun to his head and flew

0:34:23.200 --> 0:34:26.040
<v Speaker 6>him to the Congo where he still lives now, where

0:34:26.040 --> 0:34:26.840
<v Speaker 6>it's in exile.

0:34:27.040 --> 0:34:28.800
<v Speaker 4>So it's happened before.

0:34:29.320 --> 0:34:32.759
<v Speaker 6>I think what is unprecedented is this idea that we

0:34:32.800 --> 0:34:37.279
<v Speaker 6>are just going to accept oil tribute from Venezuela, that

0:34:37.360 --> 0:34:40.840
<v Speaker 6>we're just gonna give these directives to the Venezuelan government

0:34:40.880 --> 0:34:43.759
<v Speaker 6>and they're gonna send I mean, I mean we talked

0:34:43.760 --> 0:34:44.839
<v Speaker 6>about international law.

0:34:45.040 --> 0:34:46.560
<v Speaker 4>All of this stuff is just.

0:34:46.880 --> 0:34:51.359
<v Speaker 6>Unilateral US projections of its power. I mean, the United

0:34:51.400 --> 0:34:55.319
<v Speaker 6>States place sanctions on Venezuela, that's not international law. I mean,

0:34:55.760 --> 0:34:58.360
<v Speaker 6>the papers talk about it. As you know, Venezuela is

0:34:58.400 --> 0:35:01.520
<v Speaker 6>trying to violate sanctions by find the workarounds to sell

0:35:01.560 --> 0:35:05.800
<v Speaker 6>its oil. It's like, why not, it's theirs, the United

0:35:05.840 --> 0:35:09.040
<v Speaker 6>States just putting his ancients on just because it's not

0:35:09.080 --> 0:35:11.440
<v Speaker 6>like it's not like the nations of the world voted

0:35:11.440 --> 0:35:14.560
<v Speaker 6>on putting sanctions on Venezuela. But in any case, I

0:35:14.600 --> 0:35:17.640
<v Speaker 6>think what is unprecedented is what they're working out, and

0:35:17.680 --> 0:35:20.560
<v Speaker 6>they seem to be working it out on a as

0:35:20.600 --> 0:35:22.560
<v Speaker 6>you go basis. It doesn't seem like they have a

0:35:22.600 --> 0:35:23.200
<v Speaker 6>clear plan.

0:35:24.120 --> 0:35:24.560
<v Speaker 4>You're right.

0:35:24.719 --> 0:35:27.320
<v Speaker 6>They don't want it to be two thousand and three Iraq.

0:35:27.400 --> 0:35:29.719
<v Speaker 6>They don't want boots on the ground. They know the

0:35:29.800 --> 0:35:32.640
<v Speaker 6>rank and file of Trump it has a very low

0:35:32.760 --> 0:35:40.000
<v Speaker 6>tolerance for casualties and fatalities, and America first nationalism doesn't

0:35:40.080 --> 0:35:42.920
<v Speaker 6>want to be involved in nation building. But what you're

0:35:42.960 --> 0:35:48.120
<v Speaker 6>seeing is I think two distinct trajectories. On the one hand,

0:35:48.160 --> 0:35:50.839
<v Speaker 6>they're imagining some system in which is that as well,

0:35:50.880 --> 0:35:52.920
<v Speaker 6>it just continues to kind of pay a tribute to

0:35:52.960 --> 0:35:56.720
<v Speaker 6>the United States through oil. But then when Marco Rubio

0:35:56.840 --> 0:35:58.880
<v Speaker 6>talks about it, he says, well, we have these different

0:35:58.920 --> 0:36:04.960
<v Speaker 6>phases of reconstruction and transition to democracy planned out in Venezuela.

0:36:05.120 --> 0:36:08.480
<v Speaker 6>So that kind of suggests more of a direct role

0:36:08.640 --> 0:36:12.040
<v Speaker 6>in pushing the country in a certain direction politically, not

0:36:12.120 --> 0:36:14.279
<v Speaker 6>just leaving it as it is, as long as it

0:36:14.360 --> 0:36:17.600
<v Speaker 6>continues to send the ships, you know, just like during

0:36:17.600 --> 0:36:18.480
<v Speaker 6>colonial times.

0:36:18.520 --> 0:36:20.080
<v Speaker 4>I mean the colony sent.

0:36:19.920 --> 0:36:23.760
<v Speaker 6>The ships filled with gold to Spain, sending the ships

0:36:23.760 --> 0:36:26.000
<v Speaker 6>filled with oil to put off the Texas.

0:36:26.800 --> 0:36:29.200
<v Speaker 2>All right, Greg, we're going to have to leave it there,

0:36:29.239 --> 0:36:31.400
<v Speaker 2>but thank you so much for coming on all thoughts.

0:36:31.440 --> 0:36:33.359
<v Speaker 2>That was fantastic, really appreciate it.

0:36:33.840 --> 0:36:34.839
<v Speaker 4>Thanks thanks so much.

0:36:34.840 --> 0:36:51.800
<v Speaker 2>Having Joe, that was absolutely fascinating. The point that stood

0:36:51.800 --> 0:36:54.719
<v Speaker 2>out to me was this idea of going into your

0:36:54.760 --> 0:36:57.520
<v Speaker 2>own backyard to assert your dominance as a sort of

0:36:57.880 --> 0:37:02.560
<v Speaker 2>replacement or offset to a line of multilateralism elsewhere in

0:37:02.600 --> 0:37:04.759
<v Speaker 2>the world. Like that kind of makes sense, and.

0:37:04.719 --> 0:37:08.600
<v Speaker 5>It's very interesting that there's this pattern, this historical pattern

0:37:08.719 --> 0:37:13.040
<v Speaker 5>in the United States that essentially Latin America is where

0:37:13.080 --> 0:37:16.200
<v Speaker 5>we go to dominate when we're internally weak. And of

0:37:16.280 --> 0:37:18.600
<v Speaker 5>course I think people would agree that the US is

0:37:18.920 --> 0:37:21.880
<v Speaker 5>feeling particularly weak on a number of angles. There's obviously

0:37:21.920 --> 0:37:25.800
<v Speaker 5>the sort of existential threat anxiety about the rise of China,

0:37:25.800 --> 0:37:28.440
<v Speaker 5>et cetera. So maybe is this kind of thing, Okay,

0:37:28.480 --> 0:37:31.160
<v Speaker 5>we are not going to be, at least for the moment,

0:37:31.520 --> 0:37:35.680
<v Speaker 5>the global power that we once were, et cetera. But

0:37:35.880 --> 0:37:38.160
<v Speaker 5>in the absence of that, at least we could still

0:37:38.320 --> 0:37:41.000
<v Speaker 5>establish that we get to decide.

0:37:40.640 --> 0:37:43.080
<v Speaker 3>Who the president of various Latin American states.

0:37:42.920 --> 0:37:46.360
<v Speaker 2>Right, Latin American dominant path. Yeah, by the way, have

0:37:46.480 --> 0:37:51.040
<v Speaker 2>you seen me Marco Rubio meme where he's like covered

0:37:51.040 --> 0:37:56.040
<v Speaker 2>in all these different flags from Latin America basically responsible

0:37:56.120 --> 0:37:57.640
<v Speaker 2>for everything.

0:37:57.480 --> 0:37:59.959
<v Speaker 5>I know I have seen the memes about the various jobs.

0:38:00.160 --> 0:38:03.040
<v Speaker 5>Is that Marco Rubio is y sort of de facto

0:38:03.120 --> 0:38:05.560
<v Speaker 5>having to play on this. Rubio strikes me as like

0:38:05.600 --> 0:38:10.200
<v Speaker 5>a sort of interesting bridge figure between this sort of

0:38:10.200 --> 0:38:11.960
<v Speaker 5>because you know, I think of him as sort of

0:38:12.000 --> 0:38:15.640
<v Speaker 5>being like a sort of retro like cold warrior type

0:38:15.680 --> 0:38:18.520
<v Speaker 5>and someone who does probably have like believes like, oh,

0:38:18.520 --> 0:38:20.960
<v Speaker 5>we're going to like spread democracy throughout the world, and

0:38:21.040 --> 0:38:24.520
<v Speaker 5>wants to see Latin America sort of be you know,

0:38:24.640 --> 0:38:28.080
<v Speaker 5>run by liberal democrats, capitalist countries and so forth. But

0:38:28.120 --> 0:38:31.719
<v Speaker 5>obviously he's in an administration that does not have the

0:38:31.760 --> 0:38:35.279
<v Speaker 5>same impulse for that, and so, you know, to some

0:38:35.440 --> 0:38:39.400
<v Speaker 5>extent it feels like this operation it's like it's like

0:38:39.400 --> 0:38:41.680
<v Speaker 5>they're going to like split the difference, right, So he

0:38:41.800 --> 0:38:46.000
<v Speaker 5>gets to be involved in taking out a Latin American leader,

0:38:46.040 --> 0:38:49.560
<v Speaker 5>which he finds to be hostile. But the idea that like,

0:38:49.680 --> 0:38:52.000
<v Speaker 5>it does not feel like this administration is going to

0:38:52.080 --> 0:38:54.719
<v Speaker 5>have much follow through in terms of, Okay, now we

0:38:54.840 --> 0:38:58.360
<v Speaker 5>really want to set Venezuela on a new political course.

0:38:58.320 --> 0:39:01.600
<v Speaker 2>Right, I Mean, I guess we'll see, well what they

0:39:01.640 --> 0:39:04.680
<v Speaker 2>prioritize there. But in the meantime, shall we leave it there?

0:39:04.760 --> 0:39:05.520
<v Speaker 3>Let's leave it there.

0:39:06.080 --> 0:39:08.600
<v Speaker 2>This has been another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.

0:39:08.680 --> 0:39:12.000
<v Speaker 2>I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway and.

0:39:11.960 --> 0:39:14.520
<v Speaker 5>I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.

0:39:14.640 --> 0:39:18.360
<v Speaker 5>Follow our guest Greg Grandon, He's at Greg Grandon. Follow

0:39:18.400 --> 0:39:21.760
<v Speaker 5>our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carman armand dash Ol Bennett

0:39:21.760 --> 0:39:25.480
<v Speaker 5>at dashbot and Kilbrooks at Kilbrooks. For more odd Lags content,

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<v Speaker 5>go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots with the

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0:40:16.880 --> 0:40:16.920
<v Speaker 4>In