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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. We don't know where the next

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Speaker 1: procession is. All we know is that this expansion is

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Speaker 1: about six and a half years old, and that's longer

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Speaker 1: than the average expansion. We're getting signals which are distorted

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Speaker 1: cause interestress were too low. It would be a terrible

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Speaker 1: commentary and a terrible thing in reality if it takes

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Speaker 1: an overt crisis to get agreement or get progress, and

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Speaker 1: then you're risking things going crazy. Bloomberg Surveillance, your link

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Speaker 1: to the world of economics, finance, and investment on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Radio should running everyone. Michael McKay and Tom King, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance worldwide. Good Morning Bloomberg twelve DRED Boston FM, Washington

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven three oh and Summer like New York City.

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Speaker 1: We're not there yet. Wednesday will be summer like in

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Speaker 1: New York City. And good early morning Bloomberg nine sixty

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Speaker 1: the Bay Area and all of your serious the next

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Speaker 1: Time Channel one nineteen across Destination and Canada as well.

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Speaker 1: The four X Brief This morning brought you by Active Brokers,

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Speaker 1: winner of FX Weeks two thousand fifteen award for the

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Speaker 1: b k R dot com slash floor x ib at

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Speaker 1: I b k R dot com slash four x. The

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Speaker 1: report is a churn. Yeah, one thirteen fifty seven euro

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Speaker 1: one fifty seven hydrocarbon currencies early this morning doing better

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Speaker 1: Looney one right now and improvement in the last couple

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Speaker 1: of days. Uh US futures negative eight, DOWL features negative

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Speaker 1: fifty two. David Wilson with us with any number of

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Speaker 1: ways ago, is there any substance to the DuPont I

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Speaker 1: saw like social media. Somebody's got an interest in B

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Speaker 1: A s F for something that wants to eat. We

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Speaker 1: reported it, so you know that the DuPont and they

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Speaker 1: received a counter offer from Germany's B A s F.

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Speaker 1: It's people with knowledge of the matter saying the German

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Speaker 1: company is working with advisors and financing banks on the

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Speaker 1: merits of going after DuPont, which plans to emerge with doubt.

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Speaker 1: It's like we're seven news organization. I mean, it's incredible

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Speaker 1: how this news comes out when I'm you know, worried

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Speaker 1: about you know, weekend stuff there. It is absolutely what

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Speaker 1: you got. DuPont shares are higher by two percent and

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Speaker 1: trading in the wake of our report, and you've got

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Speaker 1: another potential deal stock out there, Marvell Technology, the chip maker,

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Speaker 1: shares up four percent. Marvel is open to the possibility

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Speaker 1: of selling itself, according to The New York Post. The

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Speaker 1: report cited people familiar with the matter. The activist investor

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Speaker 1: Starboard Value disclosed a six point seven percent stake in

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Speaker 1: Marvel last month, so perhaps some motivation there. Barrick Gold

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Speaker 1: and Newmont Mining both up about one a half percent.

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Speaker 1: Gold mining stocks higher after the precious metal moved into

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Speaker 1: a bull market goals up more than from eight December

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Speaker 1: low in New York trading, and Cliffs Natural Resources up

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Speaker 1: fifteen percent. Shares up. The aren ore produced a rose

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Speaker 1: after the price of Chinese or jumped ninetent. That surge

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Speaker 1: was the biggest since at least two thousand nine, and

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Speaker 1: was tied to speculation that China's government will move to

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Speaker 1: bolster economic growth. But talking about China, the Chinese city

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Speaker 1: of Macau not looking so good in terms of their

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Speaker 1: gaming business. Uh, they came out and well actually, Sanford

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Speaker 1: Bernstein saying that Macau gaming revenue was disappointing for the

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Speaker 1: first six days of March, so companies that owned casinos,

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Speaker 1: they're lower and early trading most Vegas Sands down three percent,

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Speaker 1: MGM Resorts down one and a half percent, Win Resorts

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Speaker 1: down two and a half percent, and Melco Crown down

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Speaker 1: three percent. In early U S trading, so Al was

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Speaker 1: called a note Micground Technology down four percent. The largest

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Speaker 1: US maker of memory chips was cut the equivalent of

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Speaker 1: self from hold at Nomura Stratus is down four percent.

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Speaker 1: The maker of three dimensional printers was lowered to the

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Speaker 1: equivalent of self from neutral at JP Morgan and Noble

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Speaker 1: Corps down three percent. The off shore driller was recruited

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Speaker 1: reduced the equivalent of hold from by its Stevens speaking

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Speaker 1: off shore drilling, You've got seed Drill the most acclam

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Speaker 1: stock and early trading down thirteen percent now see Drill

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Speaker 1: Shares are lower after more than tripling last week in

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Speaker 1: response to speculation that the company might get a lifeline

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Speaker 1: from its biggest shareholder, Norwegian billionaire John Frederickson. And one

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Speaker 1: More for You Peer one Imports up six and a

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Speaker 1: half percent. The home furnishing retailers preliminary arnies for the

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Speaker 1: fiscal fourth quarter, beating analysts average estimate. In the Bloomberg survey.

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Speaker 1: Here one sells at stores open more than a year,

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Speaker 1: fell less than the company expected. David Wilson, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much. Um, it's always good to talk to Arthur Lovitt.

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Speaker 1: I think, Mike, we we have to start with a

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Speaker 1: thirty seconds from Arthur run Um. Arthur, he's medicated this morning.

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Speaker 1: As Peyton retires. We have an I V in the

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Speaker 1: studio here to come Lake down. I'm sure that's true.

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Speaker 1: But we've still got Eli we do and hopefully they

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Speaker 1: will do better this year. Arthur, I've been thinking about

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Speaker 1: this after the last ten or fift in days. Whatever

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Speaker 1: anybody's political views are across this nation, there's something about

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Speaker 1: a collapse of discourse. You serve the public. Whatever again,

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Speaker 1: anybody's politics and the nuts and bolts of government, how

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Speaker 1: would you presume any of these candidates can actually govern

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Speaker 1: and delegate authority to governmental agencies like your SEC. Is

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Speaker 1: that even feasible? Or is it so anti government? We

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Speaker 1: would face some form of crisis. Whoever is nominated, whoever wins.

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Speaker 1: You know, the interesting thing about that, Tom, is that

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Speaker 1: the president has a relatively minor impact in terms of

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Speaker 1: agency structure, because that's been almost totally delegated to the Congress.

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Speaker 1: It's a trade off. Gil If Senator so and so

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Speaker 1: sitting on the Banking Committee as a former aid that

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Speaker 1: he wants to serve on the SEC, that's who gets

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Speaker 1: the job. The President is really limited to the choice

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Speaker 1: of a chairperson, and if he chooses and is particularly lucky,

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Speaker 1: that can have a greater impact on a regulatory body

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Speaker 1: than almost any other choice he makes, because other choices

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Speaker 1: are congressional choices, and they're offset by party politics, and

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Speaker 1: you've got agencies that are almost totally locked in terms

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Speaker 1: of philosophic arguments rather than the merits of the case,

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Speaker 1: or rather than charting a reasonable course in terms of

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Speaker 1: the public interest. Well, you came from the market side.

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Speaker 1: We've had other SEC chairs who come from the government side.

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Speaker 1: Is there one model that's better than the other. It's

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Speaker 1: a question of trying to pick individuals who really aren't

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Speaker 1: so locked into a particular philosophy that they're unable to

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Speaker 1: reach consensus. And we've moved further and further both to

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Speaker 1: the right and the left in terms of choice, and

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Speaker 1: that's largely a function of abdicating those choices to congressional participants.

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Speaker 1: These are people who have fought in the trenches for

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Speaker 1: the ideology of the head of their particular party, and

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Speaker 1: that's fight is going to carry itself into the agency

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Speaker 1: as well. I think the President and the Congress should

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Speaker 1: try to choose agency participants and members who really have

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Speaker 1: broader scope than merely the legislative scope that lays out

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Speaker 1: well enough in the Congress. Let's not carry it to

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Speaker 1: the agencies as well, where today we have little congressional

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Speaker 1: fights going on because we don't have people in the

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Speaker 1: agencies who have skills outside of political skills. I look,

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Speaker 1: Arthur at the banks. You wrote a bit of a

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Speaker 1: note on where we are in too Big to Fail

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Speaker 1: analysis to FED looking at the political pressures they're faced.

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Speaker 1: Of course, the backdrop here is Neil Kirks carries review

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Speaker 1: at the Minneapolis FED. How political is our FED right now?

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Speaker 1: I think it's realistic rather than being just political. On Friday,

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Speaker 1: the FED voted to limit the exposures between systemically risky banks,

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Speaker 1: where the revised plan features now three tiers of regulation

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Speaker 1: and the highest tier five hundred in and above has

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Speaker 1: the harshest standards. And this clearly shows that the FED

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Speaker 1: recognizes political pressures to tailor its rules for smaller bank

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Speaker 1: holding companies, which it doesn't that make sense? I mean

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Speaker 1: to me, it's common sense. Am I wrong? I think

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Speaker 1: it does make sense. I think that the FED is

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Speaker 1: also determined to shrink any systemic footprint left from the

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Speaker 1: biggest banks. The biggest banks are getting hit and getting

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Speaker 1: hit hard by the FED. Well, the political pressure or

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Speaker 1: the smaller banks is playing out in terms of the

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Speaker 1: Bank of the FED realizing that and easing up on

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Speaker 1: that pressure. I have to thank you so much to

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Speaker 1: love it with us. The former chairman of the SEC

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg LP board member uh as well, Michael, look, you

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Speaker 1: know it's it's it's just focuses right on script as

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Speaker 1: a Monday after job's day. But Mike, you know we

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Speaker 1: get near a forty level on Brent. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna bring it up on the Bloomberg right now

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Speaker 1: intra day. Did we did we get there? I don't

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Speaker 1: think we did? Did we know? You got to thirty

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Speaker 1: nine fifty nine point five zero as well? But nevertheless,

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Speaker 1: a lift two dollars fifty cent lift and Brent crude

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Speaker 1: over the list three or four or five days and

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Speaker 1: you see that correlated throughout the system. I know dollar

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Speaker 1: does not move. It's really not weaker, it's not stronger.

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Speaker 1: D x y nine, he's seven point six four churning

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Speaker 1: as it has. Futures. They did cheer it a little.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to make too much of it. Negative

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Speaker 1: nine Dow futures at negative fifty five and the tenure

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Speaker 1: yield pretty so here one point nine zero percent, trying

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Speaker 1: to get to a two percent yield. Gold negative to

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Speaker 1: twelve sixty eight per ounce. Time now to check on

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Speaker 1: world at national headlines, and here's Michael Mike Tom Thank

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Speaker 1: you very much. US and world political leaders are reacting

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Speaker 1: to the death of former First Lady Nancy Reagan. Former

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Speaker 1: President George W. Bush says Mrs Reagan was fiercely loyal

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Speaker 1: to her beloved husband. Israeli priminister Benjamin Etan Yahoo describes

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Speaker 1: Nancy Reagan as a noble woman. Missus. Reagan died yesterday

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Speaker 1: of congestive heart failure at age ninety four. European Union

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Speaker 1: leaders would be pressing Turkey to stop more migrants from

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Speaker 1: entering Europe when they hold summit and Brussels as leaders

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Speaker 1: get ready to meet thousands of migrants and refugees continue

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Speaker 1: to wait by Greece's border with Macedonia. North Korea hass

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Speaker 1: threatened nuclear strikes on the US. Today's response is over

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Speaker 1: the start of US South Korean military drills. Global News

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty four

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Speaker 1: hundred journalists and more than one hundred fifty news bureaus

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Speaker 1: from around the world. I am Michael Barr, Mike Tom

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Speaker 1: and Michael thanks so much. Don't forget with all due respect,

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Speaker 1: political coverage Michigan tomorrow and then onto Florida as well.

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Speaker 1: Lot going on their helper in a Heilman with all

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Speaker 1: due respect. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Market Driver has brought

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Speaker 1: to you by Mercedes Benz. This month, your Mercedes Ben's

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Speaker 1: tray State dealers welcome Spring with limited time offers on

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Speaker 1: select models like the Sporty c L A and Versatile

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Speaker 1: g l A. Each engineer a price to move. Visit

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Speaker 1: m D USA dot com Today, Global Business News twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours a day, if Bloomberg dot Com, the Radio

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Speaker 1: plus mobile app and on your radio. This is a

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm KMin Moscow. This updates brought

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Speaker 1: to you by Interactive Brokers and CME Group. If you're

196
00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:39,520
Speaker 1: looking for global futures contracts with low trading costs, look

197
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Speaker 1: no further. Interactive Brokers as the industry leader. Learn more

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Speaker 1: at Interactive Brokers dot com, slash, CME Group US lock

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Speaker 1: Index futures are signaling equities will fall from a two

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Speaker 1: month high as investors assessed China's growth prospects. We check

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Speaker 1: the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: SNP eveny futures down eight and a half points, DOWIE

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Speaker 1: mini futures down fifty two and NASDAC eumny futures down nineteen.

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Speaker 1: DAX in Germany's down to one percent, the CAC in

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Speaker 1: Paris and f T one hundred both down more than

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Speaker 1: one percent as well. Ten Your Treasury down seven thirty seconds,

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Speaker 1: the yield one nine percent. Nine max Screwed oil up

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Speaker 1: one percent, or forty four cents to thirty thirty five.

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Speaker 1: A barrel comics gold is little change, down twenty cents

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Speaker 1: to twelve seventy fifty announced. The euro and dollar oh

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Speaker 1: nine five four, the end one thirteen point five five,

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Speaker 1: and that's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike Karic Morosco.

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Tom has been noting all morning

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Speaker 1: that oil prices have gone up. We're at thirty nine

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Speaker 1: fifteen for Brent crude. Well over a month ago we

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Speaker 1: were at twenty nine dollars. Are we watching the bottom

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Speaker 1: be built for oil prices? Where do we go next

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Speaker 1: from here? Bob Yoger is Commodi's tragist at Miszoojo. He

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Speaker 1: joins us. Now, Bob, that's the question of everybody's mind.

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Speaker 1: It seems to be the predicate for most trading in

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Speaker 1: commodities these days with her oil. Yes, thank you for

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Speaker 1: having me, guys, Bob Yoger. Um, we put a really

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Speaker 1: nice rally together here. Three weeks in a row. We

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Speaker 1: put together positive prices. The market was up nine point

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Speaker 1: six percent last week. We bounced from five low three

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Speaker 1: weeks ago. And uh the majority of this this rally

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Speaker 1: first caught fire on the news of OPEC trying to

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Speaker 1: put together a market cap agreement. The headlines as they

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Speaker 1: come across the tape, they tend to support the market

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Speaker 1: and the latest talk is that the next production meeting

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Speaker 1: will be in Russia on March. Between now and March,

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Speaker 1: I would tend to believe you will hear chatter from

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Speaker 1: the OPEC slash Russia front um supporting that March twenty meeting,

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Speaker 1: and it would be hard to drill this market back

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Speaker 1: to where it came from in the twenty six dollar area.

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Speaker 1: My why is that? Why is that you're gonna have

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Speaker 1: the OPEC folks to product, the Russians threatening to cap production.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna put that story out as if it's a

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Speaker 1: pseudo agreement. It would be the first time you have

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Speaker 1: a pseudo agreement from the Saudis and quite some time.

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Speaker 1: That's the key. The key is participation by Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 1: and if they are on board, implies that they may

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Speaker 1: be open to the idea of compromising on production. Compromising

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Speaker 1: on production by the Saudis is uh IS could be

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Speaker 1: the the the way to pull back global supply, which

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Speaker 1: is that's currently about one point seven five barrels a

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Speaker 1: day over supplies. That's a big number. Um, you cannot

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Speaker 1: really put together a strong rally, so you start to

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Speaker 1: squeeze some of that one point seven five barret per

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Speaker 1: day of excess off the market. Of course, there's other

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Speaker 1: issues that have been part of this rally also. One

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Speaker 1: has been a domestic production number here in the United States.

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Speaker 1: While the Saudis and OPEC Russia's have been talking about

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Speaker 1: pulling back on production or at least copping production, production

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Speaker 1: here in the United States is off half a million

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Speaker 1: barrels from its all time high last year, So we

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Speaker 1: have seen over half a million barrels in the in

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Speaker 1: the United States taken off the market. Um. Another issue

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Speaker 1: that has been supporting the market is a gasoline demand

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Speaker 1: has been pretty strong the last two three uh EIA reports.

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Speaker 1: And if you have strong gasoline demand, that implies that

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Speaker 1: to make more gasoline, eventually you're going to have to

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Speaker 1: burn more crudeile to make it. You're calling it a

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Speaker 1: pseudo agreement. Though yes, I haven't seen anybody sign on

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Speaker 1: the dotted line yet. There's a lot of talk, and

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Speaker 1: but I haven't seen anything that is uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: basically black and white. I haven't seen anything put the

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Speaker 1: paper yet. So there's a lot of talk. But the

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Speaker 1: key is the fact that the SATs are part of

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Speaker 1: the discussion. And though the whole um story was probably

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Speaker 1: started by the Venezuelans, they did manage to loop in

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Speaker 1: the Saaltis and uh, I mean look at the end

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Speaker 1: of the day. These guys have, They've been talking a

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Speaker 1: good talk. They strategically seem to place headlines with the

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Speaker 1: market needs them the most. But there's nothing in black

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Speaker 1: and white yet. This market is up thirty UH and

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Speaker 1: there's no black and white agreement for a production even

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Speaker 1: a production cap. So they've been very successful by doing

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Speaker 1: a minimal amount of work. I would also like to

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Speaker 1: add that the higher the price goes, the less likely

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Speaker 1: they are to have an agreement. One final question, if

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Speaker 1: I could, do you link the oil lift to the

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Speaker 1: other commodity lift or is it a discrete move? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think there's something to be said there. One other

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Speaker 1: element that I didn't bring up is uh is uh

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Speaker 1: Central Bank easing too, which is we have the ECB

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Speaker 1: meeting at the end of the week. As that uh

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Speaker 1: q E is generally speaking commodity friendly, so there's a

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Speaker 1: lot to be said about that. But in general, if

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Speaker 1: you just take the commodities isolate them. I'm a strong

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Speaker 1: believer that if you have crude oil perform and strongly,

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Speaker 1: then you're going on a lot of the other commodities. Robert,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much, Robert yogarithms Zoo on the energy

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Speaker 1: markets uh, as well energy with a lift and Mike, Mike,

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Speaker 1: I see it as coordinated, highly coordinated to other commodities,

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Speaker 1: with West Texas thirty eight up forty seven cents and

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Speaker 1: Brent thirty sixteen up forty cents. Let me, Mike, let

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Speaker 1: me get up over on the chart. I don't know

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Speaker 1: the answer to well, it isn't just endless days. But really,

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Speaker 1: since I'm gonna put it Valentine's Day, since February eleven,

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Speaker 1: we really migrated from thirty flat up to thirty nine sixty.

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Speaker 1: That's a very nice move. Indeed, indeed, meanwhile, natural gas

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Speaker 1: continues to sink one six yeah, um, and and again

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Speaker 1: this is which goes to my question. I've been I'm

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Speaker 1: glad you brought that up. I'm getting warmer, yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I I may have to do a chart up on that.

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Speaker 1: It's it's like true legal in the other way. One

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Speaker 1: sixty six one one point six six one. On net gas,

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Speaker 1: we get emails from the Midwest and from the Rocky Mountains.

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Speaker 1: Why don't you guys do net gas more? I think

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Speaker 1: they are correct. Anyways, Uh, commodities in different directions. I've

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Speaker 1: noticed copper, which the iron ore is a world of

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Speaker 1: its own. I mean, we're gonna see some what was

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Speaker 1: it up copper two hundred and two oh five, two

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Speaker 1: oh seven in the Chicago quote. That's a nineteen twenty

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Speaker 1: dollars I should say twenty index points on copper off

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Speaker 1: the Chicago index, the German two year yield. I've got

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Speaker 1: to mention today a bit of a two day rebound

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Speaker 1: negative zero point five. All that to the ECB meeting,

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Speaker 1: which I believe is on Thursday. Futures at negative seven.

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Speaker 1: We need to get the markets open. You need to

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Speaker 1: stay with us. Bloomberg Surveillance counting down to the opening

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Speaker 1: Vale brought to you by the Jeep Grand Cherokee, the

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Speaker 1: A broadcasting live to New York Cloomberg eleventh, to Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg nine nine one to Boston Bloomberg Well Winners,

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Speaker 1: to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine to the Country series at

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Speaker 1: sam General one nineteen and around the globe. The Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Radio Plus happened Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Hey,

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Speaker 1: good morning. I'm Terry in Moscow along with Tom Keene

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Speaker 1: and Michael McKee. The opening vale brought to you by

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Speaker 1: Slash imagine stalks lower at the open. The S and

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Speaker 1: P five hundred down half per cent or nine points

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Speaker 1: to nineteen ninety Dow Jones Industrial average down a quarter

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Speaker 1: percent or forty points to sixteen thousand, nine hundred sixty eight,

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Speaker 1: then has to acts down six tenths percent or twenty

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Speaker 1: six points to forty six nine. Ten year Treasury down

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Speaker 1: seven thirty seconds. The yield one point nine zero percent.

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Speaker 1: That yield on the two year point eight eight percent

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Speaker 1: nine max screwed oil up one point three percent or

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Speaker 1: forty seven cents to thirty six thirty nine. A barrel

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Speaker 1: COMEX gold is down two tenths percent or two dollars

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Speaker 1: ninety cents to twelve sixty seven eighty an ounce. The

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Speaker 1: euro a dollar oh nine five to the N one.

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Speaker 1: Third team point five three, Tom and Mike, thanks so much.

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Speaker 1: Karen greatly appreciate it. This is a huge deal. I

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Speaker 1: have seen careers destroyed over this where managers want to

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Speaker 1: hold more cash and by perspectus at a mutual fund

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Speaker 1: or by the dictate of their management, they can't. And

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Speaker 1: the managers get very, very upset. It's a little better

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Speaker 1: than it used to be. They do three, four to five,

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Speaker 1: whatever the number. But Lisa Branmo it's with an incredibly

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Speaker 1: important observation. This off an f T article. This is

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Speaker 1: a huge deal in your bond space where people are

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Speaker 1: under the table, they're getting shell shocked and they want

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Speaker 1: to hold cash. Can they They are and they have to.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think that when I talked to Hi

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Speaker 1: you bond fund managers in particular, they're aware of this

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Speaker 1: bifurcation and credit markets right now where you have some

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Speaker 1: fundamental issues with some companies, but there is value there.

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Speaker 1: And then you have sort of the volatility of investor

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Speaker 1: sentiment coming in coming out and having these uh you know,

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Speaker 1: having to respond to daily redemptions or daily inflows, and

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Speaker 1: they don't want to have to sell what they don't

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Speaker 1: want to sell, and what you nail in your article

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Speaker 1: of a couple of days ago incredible turmoil unseen in

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Speaker 1: recent histories. Is it's a responsible institutional long on lyague

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Speaker 1: by side versus the players in the market in and

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Speaker 1: out in speculation and all that. Who's winning the battle?

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Speaker 1: I would say the longer term investors because the time

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Speaker 1: this market right now so well is impossible. It looks

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Speaker 1: like a casino at days. I'm looking today at Glencore,

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Speaker 1: for example, which has been rising dramatically from sixty cents

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Speaker 1: some on the dollar at the end of January UH

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Speaker 1: to over ninety cents on the dollar. Glencore commodities company

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Speaker 1: out of London that people were really worried might not

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Speaker 1: even make their bond payments. This is an investment grade

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Speaker 1: rated company. UH. It's debt has rallied almost twenty percent

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Speaker 1: since the end of January. And you know, on what again?

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Speaker 1: On what? You know? I mean, what has changed so

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Speaker 1: dramatically today we see this massive rally and iron Ore

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Speaker 1: and people attributed to China's commitment to sustain growth. But

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Speaker 1: I mean, is this really any different from what people

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Speaker 1: were expecting earlier? All? Yeah, And that brings the question

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Speaker 1: what people were expecting earlier was it accurate or had

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Speaker 1: markets gone too far? Was Glencore really a sixty cent

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Speaker 1: credit or is it more realistic where it is now? Well,

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Speaker 1: And I think this sort of brings me back to

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Speaker 1: a conversation that I had with Gershon distant felt at

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Speaker 1: Alliance bursting. He made a very astute observation, I thought,

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Speaker 1: which was, you know, leading up to the commodities crash,

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Speaker 1: people bond investors didn't have a view necessarily on commodities.

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Speaker 1: They weren't saying we believe in the commodities supercycle. They

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Speaker 1: were just buying whatever was being sold. But they ended

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Speaker 1: up having an overweight in the commodity cycle. And suddenly

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Speaker 1: you have all these investors who do not have expertise

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Speaker 1: in pricing the commodities markets having to basically take a

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Speaker 1: view and decide whether or not to sell their energy

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Speaker 1: and metals holdings into a downward spiral or or you know,

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Speaker 1: whether to hang on through the ride. So this is

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Speaker 1: sort of part of what's what's behind some of the

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Speaker 1: volatility in these markets. But I would say, back to

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Speaker 1: your point, Tom about sort of the lungs and the

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Speaker 1: shorts battling each other, A lot of this does come

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Speaker 1: back to the debate about bond market liquidity, that there

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Speaker 1: hasn't really been a referee able to step in and

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Speaker 1: sort of create some sense of stability between the people

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Speaker 1: who are trying to squeeze each other out of their positions.

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Speaker 1: And I think that you know, the longer term investor

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Speaker 1: who tries to step back and say, look, we're not

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Speaker 1: interested in that. We are interested in whether we get

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Speaker 1: our money back at the end of the day. Mike, Mike,

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Speaker 1: I brought up the Glencore piece out nine years and

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Speaker 1: basically it's a hundred to fifty nine, make it a

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Speaker 1: hundred to sixty up to seventy eight. It's three standard deviations. Mike,

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Speaker 1: that's a big move. You know, it's a bond. I mean, great,

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Speaker 1: it's Glencore. I get I get that it's a speculation,

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Speaker 1: but those are huge moves. Well, and to your point,

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Speaker 1: it's a bond. A bond is a contractual agreement. It

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Speaker 1: is math. This is basically whether you believe you are

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Speaker 1: going to get paid back or not. Glencore, as far

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Speaker 1: as I understand, it's still rated investment grade, right, I mean, yes,

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Speaker 1: they're they're about to get uh downgraded probably or may

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Speaker 1: or whatever. But I mean, if it's just about whether

430
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 1: people expect to get paid back, should these bonds really

431
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 1: trade as other equities? I don't know. I mean this

432
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 1: is this sort of comes back to the sort of

433
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 1: broader identity crisis right now among some of the traders

434
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 1: who I speak with within the credit markets, which is,

435
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 1: you know, how how did we get here? Why is

436
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 1: the market so volatile right now? Well, again I go

437
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 1: back to the players involved. Now our listeners get except

438
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 1: for those on Global Wall Street can get clambered by this.

439
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 1: They can get going both ways. It's institutional players, Global

440
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:47,159
Speaker 1: and morg markets, etcetera. It's for the I hate to

441
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:51,360
Speaker 1: use a phrase, but I am alternative investment investors trying

442
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 1: to be opportunistic. What's wrong with that? And the answers

443
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 1: there's no depth in the market, I would argue. I've

444
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 1: talked to a couple of investment managers who have said

445
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 1: to me, do you think of the hedge funds is

446
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,239
Speaker 1: being the smart money and the retail investors is being

447
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 1: the dumb money. But it's been the other way around,

448
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 1: because realistically the retail investors are actually less fickle in

449
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 1: some cases than the hedge fund investors or they have

450
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 1: been recently, and you've seen some pretty negative hedge fund performances,

451
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 1: and you've seen a lot of outflows, and you saw

452
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 1: pretty big concentrations and some of the bonds that have

453
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: gotten hammered the most. So you know, when it comes

454
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 1: down to who's winning, I would say that, you know,

455
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 1: the sort of longer term non trader types are probably

456
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 1: doing better this round. But you know, going forward, someone

457
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 1: someone's making a killing. I think somebody's doing really well.

458
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 1: But you know, Mike, I just put on a Bloomberg

459
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 1: radio plus the log rhythmic chart of the Glencore four

460
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 1: of April six. Where else the Bloomberg surveillance can you

461
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,920
Speaker 1: get a log rhythmic chart of a bond price that

462
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 1: quickly Nowhere else? I mean, Michael Barr almost burst into

463
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: tears when he saw. It's so beautiful. But you know,

464
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 1: I would I would make one other point. You know,

465
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 1: I've been watching the correlation between oil and credit markets,

466
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 1: particularly junk bonds. It is at the highest level, or

467
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 1: about the highest level since two thousand and nine. And

468
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 1: you know, this also raises another question, should it really

469
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 1: be that way? I mean, at this point it's about

470
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 1: you know, energy related Dead is about twelve of the index.

471
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 1: Should it really be trading uh in tandem with one

472
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: point virtunally intollar market? Can we talk about sounding important?

473
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 1: Did you have to go see's Utopia this weekend? Yes?

474
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 1: I did? Why did I know? Why? Yes? Now, folks,

475
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: is time for a surveillance movie review, Lisa Brando. John

476
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 1: Tucker usually doesn't. He's very very good getting the outfront

477
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 1: oscar consideration for movies where you have to buy a

478
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 1: lot of popcorn and soda. Go Utopia. I thought it

479
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 1: was fabulous by my son enjoyed it, and I found

480
00:28:55,560 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 1: that it's uh, it's very complicated and nuanced message on

481
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 1: how to include people and you know how people the

482
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: society's perception of people dictates their their future, their their perceptive.

483
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 1: This is what your son said, No, this is what

484
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. I enjoyed it for the larger

485
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 1: Lisa Brando, Let's come back after you don't spend seventy

486
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:23,959
Speaker 1: dollars at the movie theater on popcorn and slush. Oh,

487
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 1: come on, Zootopia doing better than good for the good

488
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 1: people at Walt Disney this weekend. The Town negative forty two,

489
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 1: The vix seventeen seventy seven. Time down to check it

490
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 1: out with Michael Marr get the latest world and national headlines.

491
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 1: Michael Mike Time, thank you very much. Turkey is insisting

492
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 1: on new concessions as the price for housing more asylum seekers.

493
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 1: The last minute demands come just before a European Union

494
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 1: Turkey summon in Brussels on the refugee crisis. Preparations are

495
00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 1: underway for the public to pay their respects to former

496
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 1: is Lady Nancy Reagan. Her body is now at a

497
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 1: funeral home in Santa Monica, California. After several days, your

498
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 1: body will be brought to the Reagan Presidential Library, where

499
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 1: Mrs Reagan will lying in repose. Responses continue to come

500
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 1: in remembering Nancy Reagan. Republican presidential gaindidate Marco Rubio. She

501
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 1: told us a lot of stories about President Reagan. One

502
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 1: of them really put me on the spot because she said,

503
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 1: you know, Ronnie sent flowers to my mother every year

504
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 1: on her birthday, on Nancy's birthday to thank her for

505
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 1: having me. And as you can imagine, my wife and

506
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: that turned to me and looked at me like, you're

507
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 1: no Ronald Reagan. You know, Nancy Reagan died yesterday at

508
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 1: age ninety four. Remember the Baltimore CVS pharmacy that was

509
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 1: destroyed during the Ryot's last April It has reopened. The

510
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 1: April Ryots were over the death of Freddy Gray, who

511
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: suffered a spinal injury while in police custody. Global News

512
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, powered by were twenty four

513
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 1: journalists more than one hundred fifty news bureaus from around

514
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 1: the world. I'm Michael Bart. To Michael Bart, thanks so much.

515
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 1: Coming up, We're gonna do a little bit of politics here.

516
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 1: I believe there's a primary tomorrow. Must listen Greg Villier

517
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 1: on the travails of the Grand Old Party. This is

518
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance is brought to you by the

519
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 1: Town of Hempstead Industrial Development Agency. Find out how to

520
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 1: put the Town of Hempstead idea to work for your

521
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 1: business called one five three three seven zero or visit

522
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:38,479
Speaker 1: t O h I d A dot Orger. Global Business

523
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 1: News twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com,

524
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 1: the radio plus mobil and on your radio. This is

525
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm calling Moscow. This updates

526
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 1: brought to you by American Arbitration Association International Trader Business

527
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 1: Dispute Resolve Faster with the International Center for Dispute Resolution,

528
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 1: the leader in alternative dispute resolution around the world i

529
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 1: c d R dot org. Us stocks are retreating from

530
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 1: a two month high, falling for the first time in

531
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 1: five days amid declines in banks and technology shares as

532
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: investors assess China's growth prospects. Now we check the markets

533
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 1: every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg, the

534
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: down Jones industrial averages down a tenth of a percent,

535
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: down twenty two points at sixteen thousand and nine hundred

536
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 1: eighty five. The S and P five hundred is down

537
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 1: three tenths per cent or six points, to nineteen ninety three,

538
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 1: and the nasdags down about four tenths per cent or

539
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 1: sixteen points, to forty seven hundred. The ten year Treasury

540
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 1: down eleven thirty seconds, the yield one point nine one

541
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 1: percent yield on the two year point eight nine percent.

542
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 1: Ninemex scrude oil up two point one percent, up seventy

543
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: four cents to thirty six sixty eight of arrow comes.

544
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,479
Speaker 1: Gold is down two tenths percent or two dollars ten

545
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 1: cents to twelve sixty eight sixty and ounce the euro

546
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: and other oh nine five to the N one thirteen

547
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: point six one and iron ore sor the most ever

548
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 1: after Chinese policymakers signal their willingness to buttress economic growth,

549
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 1: boosting the outlook for steel consumption in the top user

550
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 1: an igniting speculation that some investors you'd bet against the

551
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: market had been caught out. That's a Bloomberg business flash,

552
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 1: Tom and Mike Jarn thanks so much, right on the

553
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 1: screen now if the vic's rather seventeen point six three

554
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: up point seven seven points. The last time we spoke

555
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 1: with Mr Valier, he was nursing the political zoo that

556
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 1: is his New Hampshire. He has now moved on to

557
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 1: Michigan and then onto Florida. Greg Villier joining us right

558
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 1: now with Horizon Um Investors. Greg love your coverage in

559
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 1: the on the ground feel that you have. Our blue

560
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 1: collar is Michigan and does blue collar Michigan follow right

561
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 1: on to blue collar Florida. We'll see. I think that

562
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 1: Trump will have a pretty good night tomorrow night. I

563
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 1: think Hillary will have a pretty good night. But you're right.

564
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 1: The key issue then becomes Florida, and I would say

565
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 1: Ohio as well a week from tomorrow night. That's the

566
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 1: big one. And the negative ads from all sorts of

567
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 1: Republicans I think are starting to take a toll on Trump.

568
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 1: You think it's working, um, but there's a lot of

569
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 1: questions about whether the negative ads just fire up his base. Well, well,

570
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:14,440
Speaker 1: we'll see. But I think a lot of dark cloud

571
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 1: that starting inform, whether it's Trump University or now. But

572
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 1: now he's changing positions. He's sounding like a politician. Oh

573
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 1: my god, he said I've changed. So I think there

574
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 1: are a lot of seeds of doubt that have been planted.

575
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:31,319
Speaker 1: If he loses either Florida or Ohio a week from

576
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 1: tomorrow night, I don't think you can get to the

577
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 1: convention with enough delegates to win. All right, the convention process,

578
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 1: everybody's petting their hopes on a convention that's a lot

579
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 1: harder to pull off than it sounds. It's not like

580
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 1: there's a smoke filled room where people can go in.

581
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 1: First of all, there's a rule rule forty that says

582
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 1: you have to have won a certain number of minimum

583
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 1: number of primaries to get your name into nomination. So

584
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: you can't just pick anybody. Can't say Tom Keane would

585
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 1: make a great candid, Right, You're right, Mike, And I

586
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,800
Speaker 1: think that that's why I say Paul Ryan can't just

587
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 1: become the savior in Cleveland. That said, the more I

588
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,319
Speaker 1: look at this map, I think that you will see

589
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 1: Trump go to Cleveland with a plurality. I don't think

590
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,839
Speaker 1: there's any question about that. But I think he's going

591
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 1: to be short of the majority. Over the weekend, and

592
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 1: frankly before the weekend, I saw a set of smart

593
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 1: articles reviewing his lack of organization. How important is that

594
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 1: give us the real Greg Vale a world that you

595
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 1: gotta have X number of people who actually know what

596
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 1: they're talking about to make the electoral sausage. Well, I

597
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: tell you, Tom, there's two things. Number One, I think

598
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 1: his organization is not the best. By the way, Cruz

599
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: has a very good organization. Number Two, I'm not sure

600
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 1: how liquid Trump is. That's how ironic. Here's the guy

601
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 1: who's allegedly worth in three four, five eight billion. I'm

602
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 1: not sure how much liquid money he's been putting into

603
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 1: the campaign right now. So you put it all together,

604
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 1: and he's a rookie. I think there are some structural

605
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:09,879
Speaker 1: factors that also would argue against him. Interesting, Um, does

606
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 1: he have a donor base that can help fund him

607
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 1: if he declines to fund himself to the extent that

608
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,280
Speaker 1: is probably going to be necessary to counter the spending

609
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 1: on these negative ads. I think so. But of course

610
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 1: in doing that, he'll deflate his own argument that he's

611
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,840
Speaker 1: self funded, so that you he runs into an argument

612
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 1: that he's being a hypocrite if he starts taking money.

613
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 1: But I think yes, as we go down the road,

614
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 1: he will have to take some money. Does Marco Rubio

615
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 1: get out now? Not until next Tuesday night in Florida.

616
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 1: I think he'll definitely stay in through then. He had

617
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:43,800
Speaker 1: a bad weekend, as you guys know. Um, really in mystery.

618
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,320
Speaker 1: The Washington Post has a big story this morning about

619
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: his organization not being first rate. But I was wrong.

620
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,320
Speaker 1: I thought he was the most talented electable Republican in

621
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 1: the field. And it looks like we're never going to

622
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:57,440
Speaker 1: get to find out. And now we go to what

623
00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 1: we do best, folks, is as makes open statements during

624
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 1: the weekend, which Greg ll H straightens out on Monday morning.

625
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 1: Greg I was asked twice this weekend if they have

626
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:11,800
Speaker 1: to file texts form. They don't. They don't have that.

627
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 1: They have to file financial disclosure documents. But that's not

628
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 1: tax for ums. Tax forums get deep, deep into the weeds.

629
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 1: I think you can be shamed into it, as Mitt

630
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 1: Rodney was. You know, I am not sure that Trump will.

631
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 1: He seems to get away with a lot, doesn't he

632
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 1: And he may be able to just finesse this for

633
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 1: a while. But if he doesn't, it'll be a big

634
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:38,240
Speaker 1: theme for Hillary Clinton during the fall. He has declined

635
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 1: to release the tax A lot of people don't think

636
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 1: he's going to. Um, there was a really fascinating article

637
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 1: in Fortune magazine. One of their writers, I'm looking for

638
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 1: it now, see if I can find it took apart

639
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 1: his financial disclosure form and suggested that there are a

640
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 1: lot of details in there that tell you he is

641
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:01,239
Speaker 1: nowhere near as wealthy as he says he is. And

642
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,399
Speaker 1: of course that's something Blueberg News has reported as well. Um,

643
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 1: how much does that matter to people? Is he keeps

644
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 1: making a big deal out of it in the debates. Well,

645
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 1: I think the three of us would gladly share, you know,

646
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 1: what he's got. But it does it does matter if

647
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 1: he's grossly inflating what he's really worth. If it's if

648
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 1: it's just on paper, if it's assets that are tied

649
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 1: up in all sorts of complex deals, it does deflate

650
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 1: the argument that he's a billionaire and a successful businessman.

651
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,320
Speaker 1: I watched the speech by Rodney. I thought one of

652
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:36,359
Speaker 1: the most effective arguments was that this guy Trump has

653
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:39,239
Speaker 1: not been that good a businessman. Many of his most

654
00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 1: of his ventures have failed. What's the following on this

655
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 1: for Governor Rodney? I mean, I saw some you know,

656
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 1: back and forth, and it depends on people's politics and that.

657
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:52,439
Speaker 1: But if we're trying to do an a political show,

658
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:56,319
Speaker 1: how does the establishment arrange the deck chairs after they've

659
00:38:56,360 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 1: had a few days to digest the the cinema that

660
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 1: we saw this week. I don't think that Romney has

661
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 1: any chance a demon nominee. As Mike points out, there's

662
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,800
Speaker 1: a rule that seemingly would preclude that. You know, he

663
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 1: may have an influence. Now, I think it's one of

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00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 1: the four, And of the four out there, the one

665
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 1: who sort of intrigues me the most is Case. I think,

666
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:22,400
Speaker 1: as he hangs in there and goes to the convention

667
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 1: with a few hundred delegates, he's someone maybe everyone could

668
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 1: sort of agree on. So I think I understand his rationale.

669
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 1: I think he liked the other three may stay right

670
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 1: until July. How does he do that if he's hardly

671
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:40,399
Speaker 1: has traction? I don't understand why the rules this time

672
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 1: are different Greg Bellier and the other fourteen conventions and things.

673
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: There's rules, and then there's momentum. And I think if

674
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 1: we go into April and all of a sudden, someone

675
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:53,440
Speaker 1: gets hot, Let's say it's Casey maybe Rubio. I think

676
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 1: it's Casey, and they in case It wins Pennsylvania, he

677
00:39:56,640 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 1: wins New York, he decisively wins California on June seventh,

678
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 1: He wins New Jersey on June seven. Would that kind

679
00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 1: of momentum? I think that would that would mean a

680
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 1: lot to delegates who are looking for somebody who can

681
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:14,760
Speaker 1: win in the fall. What happens, it's Trump does maintain

682
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 1: his lead, does be positioned to become the nominee. Uh.

683
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,839
Speaker 1: We've we've seen some people, including the other candidates, say

684
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 1: they would back the nominee, some people like Mitt Romney

685
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 1: saying no way. Well, you know, first of all, I

686
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 1: would say that still is the most likely scenario that

687
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 1: Trump limps into Cleveland, not not with a huge majority,

688
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,640
Speaker 1: but just enough and does that's still the most likely scenario.

689
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 1: What if that happens, I think the focus will immediately

690
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 1: shift to the electoral college map. Could he put together

691
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:53,760
Speaker 1: a coalition of white blue collar men in Michigan, Ohio,

692
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 1: Upper Midwest Pennsylvania. Could he put together the votes to

693
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:01,359
Speaker 1: do it? It's an uphill fight, but as Hillary still

694
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 1: has legal problems with her emails, it's it's Trump. You

695
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 1: can't rule out Trump winning this thing. It's less than

696
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 1: but it's not zero. Very quickly on Secretary Clinton, I mean,

697
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 1: I think she's not getting the chat that the others

698
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 1: are getting because it's a whole different calculus. Where is

699
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 1: she after Michigan, after Florida on at least a two

700
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 1: to one lead, maybe more than's not even counting the

701
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 1: super delegates. I mean, she would have to get indicted

702
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 1: a big time to stumble. I think she quite clearly

703
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:36,280
Speaker 1: is the favorite to be the nominee and the shaky

704
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 1: favorite to win the presidency. Greg a wonderful update. Greg

705
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 1: value value it immensely. He is with Horizon and over

706
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:46,840
Speaker 1: the years has given us I swear. Mike greg is

707
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 1: different because he grew up in New Hampshire where this

708
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 1: was so deadly serious when we were kids. It was

709
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:56,840
Speaker 1: just for those of you younger, it was so different

710
00:41:56,880 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 1: the importance of value's New Hampshire. Why back where they

711
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 1: you know, in the cigar killed rooms and it was amazing.

712
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 1: As the other day said, there may be there may

713
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 1: be non cigar filled rooms all the pipe in the smoke. Uh.

714
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 1: Shout out to Albert our Hunt with a wonderful Bloomberg

715
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:18,920
Speaker 1: View column today on Mrs Reagan, whatever your politics, in

716
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:21,479
Speaker 1: the time, in the moment, passing on, and a further

717
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 1: shout out to Michael McKee for terrific value in giving

718
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:30,879
Speaker 1: some glimpse Michael into, ye was a long time ago. Um,

719
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 1: did Reagan ever throw a shoe at you because you

720
00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:36,840
Speaker 1: said the wrong thing? He glared at me, but he

721
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 1: never throws Michael mckein. Maybe we'll talk about that tomorrow.

722
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:45,359
Speaker 1: Tomorrow we will do economics, finance, investment, international relations. Michael

723
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Speaker 1: McKee and Tom Keane. This is Bloomberg savllance