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Speaker 1: Kaboom. If you thought four hours a day, minutes a

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Speaker 1: week was enough, think again. He's the last remnants of

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Speaker 1: the old Republic, a sole fashion of fairness. He treats

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Speaker 1: crackheads in the ghetto gutter the same as the rich

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Speaker 1: pill poppers in the penthouse the Clearinghouse of Hot takes

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Speaker 1: break free for something special. The Fifth Hour with Ben

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Speaker 1: Maller starts right now in the air everywhere, and welcome

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Speaker 1: into a brain spanking new edition of The Fifth Hour

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Speaker 1: with Ben Maller and Danny G. Radio. It is our

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Speaker 1: Friday edition and that means that the Penny makes its

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Speaker 1: triumphant return every Friday during the NFL season until further notice.

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Speaker 1: Benny versus the Penny man versus inanimate object, as we

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Speaker 1: will pick every game against the spread. We picked the

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Speaker 1: Thursday night game on terrestrial radio, and now we're gonna

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Speaker 1: dive into the full card of NFL games. And since

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Speaker 1: the Penny refuses to speak, Danny G. You are the

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Speaker 1: voice of the Penny. You're the voice of the Penny. Yeah, well,

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Speaker 1: I guess there's not a lot of costume options when

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Speaker 1: you're a penny Bend. But you know, Halloween is upon

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Speaker 1: us and the penny is dressed up as a dime.

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Speaker 1: It's a bad job by the penny man, because you know,

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Speaker 1: you gotta stay true to your roots. You can't be

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Speaker 1: a sell out and become a dime. It's a bad

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Speaker 1: job by the penny. Yeah, that's diarrhea, all right, Well

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Speaker 1: that's actually an improvement by no. But you gotta keep

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Speaker 1: it real, man, you gotta keep it real. You came

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Speaker 1: as a penny, you can't leave as a dime. That's

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Speaker 1: not that's not right anyway, benny versus the penny. We've

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Speaker 1: been doing this all season. We are now heading into

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Speaker 1: Week eight on the NFL card. Before we look ahead,

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Speaker 1: we must look back. How are we done? Welcome, layers, Welcome,

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Speaker 1: It's time now penny the penny. And you can verify

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Speaker 1: this with Roscoe the Parrot, Robin, Vegas, David and Florida,

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Speaker 1: all the fact checkers that keep track of these picks.

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Speaker 1: So last week, in Week seven, there were fourteen games

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Speaker 1: on the card, and I went nine and five against

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Speaker 1: the spread. So I was four games over five. Not

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Speaker 1: a bad week. I had a bad beat. I had

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Speaker 1: the Lions. They were covering the game fifty seven minutes

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Speaker 1: into the game, and the final three minutes there are

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Speaker 1: a couple of turnovers by Detroit. They gave up two

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Speaker 1: touchdowns and so Dallas ended up covering the spread, but

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Speaker 1: fifty seven minutes of the Lions being right there and

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Speaker 1: then they botched it at the end, but at nine

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Speaker 1: and five. So another winning week, and so far I

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Speaker 1: don't want to chix myself. I've had only one losing

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Speaker 1: week overall, betting every game against the spread. That's a

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Speaker 1: last week to sixty three winning percentage the penny. The

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Speaker 1: penny was exactly at five hundred going into week number seven,

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Speaker 1: but did not go well for the penny. Another losing

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Speaker 1: week for the penny, six and eight against the spread.

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Speaker 1: So overall on the season seven weeks in, I am

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Speaker 1: sixty two forty three and three. That's a five ninety

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Speaker 1: winning percentage. We are nineteen games above five hundred, so

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Speaker 1: that's pretty good the penny because of this past week,

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Speaker 1: two games under five fifty four and two. As we

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Speaker 1: head into the Weeke eight card, no Chiefs, no Chargers

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Speaker 1: this weekend. They are both for sonna non grata. They

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Speaker 1: have the buy so everyone else is playing and the

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Speaker 1: first game up we'll handicap the early, early, early game.

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Speaker 1: They'll kick this thing off at nine thirty Eastern times

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Speaker 1: six thirty in the West. I'll be sleeping like a

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Speaker 1: baby right through this game. Denver two and five against

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Speaker 1: jackson will not at jackson It was a Jack's home game,

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Speaker 1: but the game has been played in London and temperatures

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Speaker 1: in the sixties at Wimbley Stadium. The game's not even

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Speaker 1: being broadcast on terrestrial television. It is gonna be an

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Speaker 1: ESPN Plus broadcast with Steve Levy, dan Orlovsky and Lewis Riddick,

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Speaker 1: so they're making the trip to the UK to call

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Speaker 1: this game. Jacksonville opened up a three point favorite. They

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Speaker 1: are currently a two point favorite. Slight lean on the

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Speaker 1: handle the Jacksonville. The Broncos are two and five against

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Speaker 1: the spread with Nathaniel Hackett as the coach. The Jags.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the numbers on this not particularly good.

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Speaker 1: They're owing four against the spread the last four games.

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Speaker 1: The favorite in London owen two in games this season

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Speaker 1: and eighteen and fourteen all time against the spread. Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: last fifteen games is a favorite there three and twelve.

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Speaker 1: It's only a two point line. I'm gonna take the

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Speaker 1: Broncos here. The Broncos are a hot mess. Dathaniel Hackets

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Speaker 1: hanging on by a thread. But I like that Denver defense.

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Speaker 1: That's legit until they start trading some of these guys away.

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Speaker 1: And this game should be touch and go. I anticipate

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Speaker 1: it will be decided by a field goal, and we're

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Speaker 1: only getting two points, but because of a missed extra

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Speaker 1: point here, a missed extra point there, it might be

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Speaker 1: to set up even less than that. The Broncos defense

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Speaker 1: should rule the day, as Jacksonville has mastered the bone

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Speaker 1: head play. Both these teams are not fundamentally sound. Denver, though,

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Speaker 1: has an elite defense, and that pass rush is gonna

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Speaker 1: mess with over Lawrence enough to cause him to make

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Speaker 1: some mistakes. Cough up a few furballs. Broncos seventeen, JAG

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Speaker 1: sixteen the final and an early agreement. The penny also

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Speaker 1: going with the Broncos. All right, so we agree right

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Speaker 1: off the bat. Next up Chicago, fresh off the upset

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Speaker 1: of the Patriots three and four, and they're piping hot

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Speaker 1: right now against Dallas five and two. It's on Fox.

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Speaker 1: Adam Amen and Darryl moose Johnson have the call. The

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Speaker 1: Cowboys opened up a nine and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 1: It went down to nine for a few days. It's

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Speaker 1: gone back up to nine and a half, and the

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Speaker 1: money a slight leaned to the Cowboys here at a

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Speaker 1: T and T Stadium better known as Jerry's World. And

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Speaker 1: you look at some of the trends here Chicago, they

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Speaker 1: have been a terrible team as an underdog of more

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Speaker 1: than seven points, although they did win on Monday Night

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Speaker 1: and won the game outright, but overall three eleven and

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Speaker 1: one against the spread. Dallas has been great as a

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Speaker 1: favorite there twelve and three against the gambling number since

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Speaker 1: the start of last season. And I can have paralysis

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Speaker 1: by analysis, throw all kinds of numbers at you, but

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Speaker 1: I want to take the Bears in this game. Justin

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Speaker 1: fields in Chicago actually looked like a professional offense against

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Speaker 1: the Patriots. They did benefit from some sloppy play by

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Speaker 1: New England, actually tackled pretty well on defense. They didn't

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Speaker 1: self destruct like we've seen from the Bears, who have

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Speaker 1: had some real stickers to begin the year. Mixed in

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Speaker 1: with some games you're like, how did they possibly even

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Speaker 1: win that game? There was the bad weather game with

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Speaker 1: the Niners early in the season, beginning the year, and

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Speaker 1: on a depth chart, the Dallas defense should destroy Chicago.

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Speaker 1: Michael Parsons and Dallas have the top pass rush in

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Speaker 1: the NFL, that the number two scoring defense, number six

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Speaker 1: in total defense. But there's value with Chicago because any

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Speaker 1: time you get over a touchdown, you gotta take it.

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Speaker 1: I'm Dak Prescott is still working out the kinks. It's

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Speaker 1: not like the Cowboys blew away the Lions. They got

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Speaker 1: a couple of fluky things going their way late last week.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take the Bears plus the nine and

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Speaker 1: a half. Anytime you get over that touchdown, you gotta

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Speaker 1: take it. Cowboys twenty four, Bears sixteen. The final. The

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Speaker 1: Penny says, you're tripping off a one week fluke by

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Speaker 1: Chicago going with Dallas. No, no, no, no, that's a

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Speaker 1: that's a big number. Nine and a half. It's almost

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Speaker 1: double digits. That's a huge line. Most of these teams

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Speaker 1: are within a touchdown game after game. All right, Next up,

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Speaker 1: game close to the Penny's heart, Las Vegas Writers at

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Speaker 1: two and four and the No. Orleans Saints at two

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Speaker 1: and five. It's on CBS with Kevin Harlan and Trent

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Speaker 1: Green they have the call the game opened up and

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Speaker 1: pick him. The Raiders are a one and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorite. Slight lean money is pretty even on on

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Speaker 1: the handle slightly into Vegas at the super Dome in

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Speaker 1: New Orleans, so whether or not a factor, although it

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Speaker 1: will be a nice day in the Bayou, temperatures in

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Speaker 1: the low seventies at kickoff. So the bet here is

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Speaker 1: on the New Orleans Saints. I'm not a Dennis Allen fan.

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Speaker 1: He's been terrible for Gambler sixteen and twenty seven his career,

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Speaker 1: two and five this year. But I simply don't trust

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Speaker 1: the Raiders as a road favorite. I don't the past

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Speaker 1: five seasons Vegas, going back to their days in Oakland,

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Speaker 1: they're one and eight against the spread as a road favorite.

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Speaker 1: Oh in six their last six games as a road favorite.

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Speaker 1: And in his career, Derek Carr four eleven and one

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Speaker 1: against the spread in his career as a road favorite.

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Speaker 1: And so you've got two quarterbacks here that that's scary.

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Speaker 1: Andy Dalton has been a mistake prone mess. He gave

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Speaker 1: the game away last Thursday for New Orleans. But the

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Speaker 1: Saints offense the last three weeks last month or so,

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Speaker 1: they have the top offense. They're averaging four hundred forty

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Speaker 1: three yards of offense, and they go against the Raiders defense,

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Speaker 1: which is twenty four in that period of time. So

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Speaker 1: this certainly appears to be a mismatch the way the

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Speaker 1: Saints have been playing lately, in the way the Raiders

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Speaker 1: defense has been playing a toss in Derek Carr and

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Speaker 1: his issues, and I love the Saints win this game

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Speaker 1: out right. New Orleans twenty three, Las Vegas twenty the final.

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Speaker 1: The penny says that it learned from betting against Josh

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Speaker 1: Jacobs last week, but you didn't going with the Raiders. Yeah, well,

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Speaker 1: keep in mind last week the Raiders were actually losing

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Speaker 1: that game going to the fourth quarter, and Davis Mills

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Speaker 1: was beating the Raiders before the final fifteen minutes. Stands anyway,

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Speaker 1: all right, that's why they play all fourth quarters. Carolina

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Speaker 1: two and five at Atlanta three and four. It's on

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Speaker 1: Fox with Kenny Albert and Jonathan Vilma. They have the

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Speaker 1: call Falcons open a touchdown favorite. That line has been

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Speaker 1: bent down before, the Falcons getting a slight lean in

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Speaker 1: their direction on the handle. Gonna be a rainy day

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Speaker 1: in Georgia. Not that it matters the game is being

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Speaker 1: played inside the Mercedes Benz Stadium Dome. Carolina oh in

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Speaker 1: seven their last seven games against teams with a losing

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Speaker 1: record in Carolina overall, OH and six their last six

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Speaker 1: road games, last twenty one road games there four and

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Speaker 1: seventeen against the spread. But Atlanta has been an underdog

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Speaker 1: in nine straight. This is new territory for them. Second

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Speaker 1: longest active streak in the league that comes to an

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Speaker 1: end this week, longest second longest streaks as an underdog,

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Speaker 1: And this would be the second time, just the second

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Speaker 1: time since Arthur Smith took over as coach, that Atlanta

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Speaker 1: is favored by at least four points. And I don't

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Speaker 1: get it that both these teams have their issues. Carolina,

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Speaker 1: I'm a little concerned about how they're gonna respond after

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Speaker 1: that big upset of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, But

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Panthers in this game. The Falcons

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Speaker 1: were absolutely flummixed in Cincinnati. They don't have to worry

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Speaker 1: about playing Joe Burrow this week. But p J. Walker

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Speaker 1: and Carolina they did obviously pretty well last week against

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Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. This is a matchup problem for the guys

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Speaker 1: from Georgia. Assuming Carolina plays with some focus here. One

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Speaker 1: of the strengths, one of the strengths of the Carolina

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Speaker 1: Panthers defense has been slowing down the running game. That's

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Speaker 1: the one thing the Falcons have to do is to

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Speaker 1: to run the ball. So I'm looking at this matchup

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Speaker 1: and I'm saying to myself, well, I'm getting over a

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Speaker 1: field goal. Most games are decided by a field goal.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take Carolina plus of four points cover

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Speaker 1: the spread. I think the Panthers win this game outright.

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Speaker 1: Panthers seventeen, Falcon sixteen the final and another disagreement, the

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Speaker 1: penny going with the Falcons, alright, so we disagree on that.

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Speaker 1: Next up, Pittsburgh two and five at Phila Delphia six

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Speaker 1: and oh on CBS with Jim Nance and Tony Romo.

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Speaker 1: The Eagles opened up a ten and a half point favorite,

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Speaker 1: and they are still a ten and half point favorite.

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Speaker 1: And this is one of those games the public thanks

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Speaker 1: free money, free money game. They're just handed out wads

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Speaker 1: of cash. Of the handle. The latest numbers we have

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Speaker 1: at this point as we are doing Benny versus Penny

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Speaker 1: on the side of Philadelphia sunny mostly Sonny. Temperatures in

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Speaker 1: the high fifties at kick off at Lincoln Financial Field

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Speaker 1: in South Philly, and the Pittsburg Steelers under My Tomlin

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Speaker 1: have been a great underdog play there, nine and four

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Speaker 1: against the spread as a dog, But Mike Tomlin has

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Speaker 1: only won one game as a double digit underdog. He's

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Speaker 1: one in four as a double digit dog, and this

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Speaker 1: is the four straight game Pittsburgh has been at least

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Speaker 1: a seven point underdog. That is the longest streak since

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Speaker 1: nineteen sixty nine for the Steelers. It ties the longest

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Speaker 1: streak for Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl era. So that

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Speaker 1: tells you where the gamblers, the point spread makers think

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Speaker 1: the Steelers franchise is right now, and the Eagles have

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Speaker 1: a or the Steelers runn I have a by coming

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Speaker 1: up Philadelphia, coming off some rest and relaxation, but I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna take the Steelers here to get the back door cover.

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Speaker 1: Eagles twenty eight, Steelers twenty the final, and the penny

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Speaker 1: is going with the Steelers, alright, So the penny in

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Speaker 1: agreement on that game, taking the ten and a half points.

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Speaker 1: Next up for us, we keep the train moving true

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Speaker 1: to on Benny versus de Penny. Next up, Miami four

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Speaker 1: and three at Detroit one and five on the CBS

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Speaker 1: with Andrew Catalan and James loft In, and the Dolphins

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Speaker 1: opened up a three point favorite. They're a three and

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Speaker 1: a half point favorite at ford Field. Another one of

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Speaker 1: these games where you look at Miami and they're like, hey,

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Speaker 1: everyone's betting on the Dolphins, so almost eighty percent of

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Speaker 1: the money is on the Dolphins side here. They think

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Speaker 1: this is a free money game, as the Dolphins with

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Speaker 1: two a tongue of by lois starting our fifteen eleven

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Speaker 1: fifteen eleven against the spread. Detroit has been brutal of late,

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Speaker 1: and they're oh and seven their last seven games at

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Speaker 1: home in the month of the October. Lions two and

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Speaker 1: four against the spread under Dan Campbell. When it's not

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Speaker 1: at least a four points spread, there the underdog, they're

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Speaker 1: twelve and four when they're getting at least four points.

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Speaker 1: But this line is at three and a half, so

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Speaker 1: that's obviously the number. I'm taking the Lions in this game.

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Speaker 1: I feel like this is a sneaky good play. Detroit's

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Speaker 1: been absolutely just destroyed the last couple of games. Their

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Speaker 1: defense held the Cowboys to ten points for the first

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Speaker 1: fifty seven minutes of that game. Then they imploded because

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Speaker 1: of some turnovers the final couple of minutes of the

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Speaker 1: game that gave the Cowboys the back door cover. Miami

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Speaker 1: secondary is battle scared. They've got multiple players dinged up.

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Speaker 1: The Lions are getting Amon ross st Brown back. He

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Speaker 1: had a fake concussion last week. He knocked and got

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Speaker 1: knocked out of the game. They said he had concussion,

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Speaker 1: then they reviewed it and said no, he didn't have

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Speaker 1: a concussion, but they wouldn't let him back in the game.

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Speaker 1: Dan Campbell got a vote of confidence this week. I

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Speaker 1: say he is rewarded not with a win, but with

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Speaker 1: a cover and keeping my Miami scored only sixteen points

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Speaker 1: last week against the pretty weeks Steeler defense. The Lions

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Speaker 1: defense has come around the last couple of weeks. The

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Speaker 1: offense twenty six, Lions twenty three. Your final and the

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Speaker 1: penny is going with twa. Al Right, be careful, you

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Speaker 1: might get another concussion get knocked out of that game.

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Speaker 1: Next up, Arizona three and four at Minnesota five and one.

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Speaker 1: It's on Fox with Chris Myers and Mark schlay Rick.

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Speaker 1: The Vikings opened up a six and a half point favorite,

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Speaker 1: and they are favored by three and a half now

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Speaker 1: about six of the handle on the side of the Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: And the numbers that we have at US Bank Stadium

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Speaker 1: in the Twin Cities, sunny, fifty seven degrees, so nice weather,

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Speaker 1: late October weather as we get close to Halloween, and

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Speaker 1: the numbers on this game. Arizona has been an amazing

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Speaker 1: road team. Their fifteen four and one against the spread

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Speaker 1: with Cliff Kingsbury coach as a road underdog there eight

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Speaker 1: and oh against the spread straight up and in such

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Speaker 1: situations last couple of seasons, and each of the past

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Speaker 1: eight times Arizona has been a road underdog, they've won

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Speaker 1: the game outright. I haven't even needed the points. Arizona

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Speaker 1: ten in two against the spread on the road as

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Speaker 1: a dog than the The overall numbers are just stunning.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota not as nice five and one outright, but just

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Speaker 1: two and four against the spread. But I'm going against

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Speaker 1: the public. I'm going against the public on this game.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Vikings here. I am a believer

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Speaker 1: in the Vikings who are arrested. Coming off the bye week,

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Speaker 1: Arizona had a little bit of extra time. They played

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Speaker 1: the Thursday night game last week against the Saints. But

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Speaker 1: we saw some bad blood on the sidelines between the

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Speaker 1: Alligator Arms Murray and Cliff Kingsbury. They got into a

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Speaker 1: pissing match during the game. And this is really more

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Speaker 1: of a play against Kyler Murray than anything, because he's

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Speaker 1: quietly been a very ace line quarterback or below baseline.

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Speaker 1: Last five games. Alligator Arms Murray four touchdown passes, three

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Speaker 1: interceptions of passer rating eight two point eight. And Minnesota's defense,

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Speaker 1: while they're much maligned with Kirk Cousins, their defense the

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Speaker 1: fifth best pass rush the last three weeks. Arizona has

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Speaker 1: generated almost no pass rush of late. So that means

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Speaker 1: if that trend continues, I only blitz and they try

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Speaker 1: to get pass But if that trend continues, Kirk Cousins

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Speaker 1: will have time to sit back and find plenty of

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Speaker 1: open receivers. And I'm gonna take the Vikings to win

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Speaker 1: the game and cover the spread. Vikings thirty, Cardinals three

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Speaker 1: the final and the penny going with the Vikings. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so we agree on that. Next up, New England three

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Speaker 1: and four at the j e t s Sucks, Sucks, Suck.

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Speaker 1: The Jets five and two it's on CBS with Iron

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Speaker 1: Eagle and Charles Davis. The game opened up a pick them.

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Speaker 1: The Patriots are up to a two and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorite at MetLife Stadium in Jersey, Temperatures in the

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Speaker 1: high fifties at kickoff of this game, and a slight

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Speaker 1: lean to the Patriots. Bill Belichick, you look get some

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Speaker 1: of the numbers here, and the Patriots have been favorite

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Speaker 1: twenty one consecutive times against the Jets. That is the

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Speaker 1: longest active street in the NFL. And historically, the Patriots

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Speaker 1: have always been great coming off a loss. Their twelve

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Speaker 1: and three against the spread after losing the previous game

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Speaker 1: as at least a seven point favorite under Belichick. Overall,

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Speaker 1: Belichick is nineteen games above after his team loses. I'm

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Speaker 1: taking the Patriots in this game. Who England had a

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Speaker 1: clunker against Chicago. They don't have back to back clunkers

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Speaker 1: very often with Belichick. Mac Jones returns as a starter.

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Speaker 1: Will Bailey's appy get in? Only Bill Belichick knows, but

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Speaker 1: this is a nice bounce back spot for the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: even though the Jets have ave I've in two records

337
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Speaker 1: and people get all excited about the Jets. Zack Wilson

338
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Speaker 1: has been trash for the Jets this season. He's a passenger,

339
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Speaker 1: not a driver. The last four weeks, he's completing only

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Speaker 1: fifty seven percent of his passes, one touchdown pass and

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Speaker 1: two interceptions, his passer ratings below seventy. The Jets have

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Speaker 1: been able to win in spite and Wilson not because

343
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Speaker 1: of the Big Buzuka has been this guy, Bryce Hall,

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Speaker 1: the rookie running back. He's out for the year. In

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Speaker 1: his place, James Robinson was picked up from Jacksonville. He

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Speaker 1: takes over the Patriots defense. They've done pretty well when

347
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Speaker 1: not playing a mobile quarterback. Zach Wilson not the most

348
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Speaker 1: mobile quarterback. So I'm gonna take the Patriots and the

349
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Speaker 1: Jets twenty three the final, and the Penny says, let's

350
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Speaker 1: ride with Robinson going with the Jets. Yeah, Well, that

351
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Speaker 1: that jet is not gonna take off. It's gonna have

352
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Speaker 1: to go back and get some more work done, all right.

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Speaker 1: Next up, late games, the late part of the television schedule.

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Speaker 1: We'll start out with Tennessee four and two at Houston

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Speaker 1: four and one. It's on CBS Sports Talk Radio. Hter

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Speaker 1: Greg Gumbel and Adam arch Aletta have the call. The

357
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Speaker 1: Titans open to three and a point favorite. They are

358
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Speaker 1: favored by two at NRG Stadium in Houston. There's a

359
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Speaker 1: little baseball game going on in that town this weekend

360
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Speaker 1: as well a few baseball games. But if you look

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Speaker 1: at Tennessee, all right, you know, I i'men a good

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Speaker 1: team at home having a good team anywhere. The two

363
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Speaker 1: and eight though against the spread their last ten at home.

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Speaker 1: The one team that they seem to dominate has been

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Speaker 1: the Tennessee Titans. I I mean the uh, the the

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Speaker 1: or the Houston Texans dominating in Tennessee Titans when I'm

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Speaker 1: trying to Houston the last twenty two meetings sixteen and

368
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Speaker 1: six against the spread versus the Titans. The Houston Texans

369
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,159
Speaker 1: are seven and read their last ten with Davis Mills starting,

370
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Speaker 1: Houston has been an underdog twelve straight games, entering the

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Speaker 1: week longest active streak in the league. I'm taking the

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Speaker 1: Texans here. The Titans have the NFL's worst offense the

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Speaker 1: last three weeks. Even though they've won four straight games

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Speaker 1: and they've covered four straight games the last three weeks,

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Speaker 1: their offense has sucked. You also have Ryan Tannehill, who

376
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Speaker 1: hasn't practiced. He was in a walking boot. Is he

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Speaker 1: gonna play? Is he's not gonna play? I expect this

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Speaker 1: game to week close. It's Derrick Henry and that's about it.

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Speaker 1: The Texans have been a great third three quarter team.

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Speaker 1: They haven't been able to finish games. But if you

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00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 1: look at the Texans through the first three quarters, they

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00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,199
Speaker 1: have the ninth best scoring margin in the entire NFL

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Speaker 1: out of thirty two teams. Their ninth they've outscored their

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00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: opponents by ten points in the first three quarters, but

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Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter they've been outscored by forty one points.

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Speaker 1: That is the second worst in the NFL. Carolina is

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Speaker 1: the the second worst UH past a throwing team in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. That was the game we mentioned earlier. But

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Speaker 1: the the Tennessee Titans have had They've had their issues

390
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Speaker 1: at stopping the deep pass. Here they've allowed uh the

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Speaker 1: The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed thirteen of nineteen passes

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Speaker 1: deep passes twenty plus arears to be completed. So that's

393
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Speaker 1: among the worst of the NFL. There's an opportunity here

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Speaker 1: for Davis Mills to get some chunk plays. So I

395
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Speaker 1: think the Texans will win this game out right. There

396
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Speaker 1: are a small underdog Texans twenty four and the Titans

397
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Speaker 1: twenty the final and the penny is also a Damien

398
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 1: Paris fan going with the Texans, all right. The Texans

399
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 1: is the play. Next up the g I A N

400
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Speaker 1: T S Giants, Giants, Giants, they don't suck to six

401
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 1: and one New York and Seattle. Seattle comes in four

402
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Speaker 1: and three. It's on Fox. This is the only game

403
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Speaker 1: in this weekend with two teams that have a winning

404
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: record going into the matchup. Kevin Coogler and Mark Sanchez

405
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 1: have the call, so you can tell that Fox doesn't

406
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a sexy matchup. The Seahawks

407
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 1: opened a one point favorite. They are favored by three

408
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,639
Speaker 1: and the money pretty even. There'll be some rain showers

409
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 1: in the forecast at Loumin Field in Seattle as that

410
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 1: game kicks off. Brian Dable six and one as the

411
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Speaker 1: Giants coach, and Daniel Jones has been manna manna many

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Speaker 1: as a starter on the road as an underdog thirteen

413
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Speaker 1: and four against the spread. But I'm going the other way.

414
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Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet against the six and one Giants, and

415
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Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay the small number with the Seahawks. The

416
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Speaker 1: Giants have been juggling machetees this week. They finally drop

417
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 1: one right on their foot and they failed to pick

418
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 1: it up in time. The g Men had the NFL's

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00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 1: worst run defense. They're allowing five points seven yards per

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Speaker 1: attempt to lie. Three weeks, it's been even worse six

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00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,880
Speaker 1: point nine yards pert tempt. That means that Kenneth Walker

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Speaker 1: this prodigy for the Seattle Seahawks. He's bringing the razmatazz.

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00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 1: He's the home run hitter right now for Seattle, and

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00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,959
Speaker 1: he's gonna get a lot of opportunities to have big plays,

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00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 1: keep the ball away from the Giants offense. And the

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00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 1: Giants also try to run the ball with se Kwon Barkley.

427
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 1: But we're hoping that Geno Smith continues to wear the

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00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 1: glass slipper, that it does not break. At some point

429
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,920
Speaker 1: that's gonna fall apart. It hasn't so far. It's been

430
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 1: smooth sailing. But I'm gonna say it happens again here.

431
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 1: Seahawks six Giants twenty. As Seattle gets to five and

432
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 1: three and the Giants are gonna fall to six and two,

433
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 1: and the penny says Daniel Jones for m v P.

434
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,680
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if it's kidding or not, but going

435
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 1: with the Giants m v P. If he goes back

436
00:26:58,200 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 1: to Duke, he might win the m v P. Next

437
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 1: Washington three and four at Indianapolis three, three and one.

438
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 1: It's on Fox with Brandon Gotden and Robert Smith on

439
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,639
Speaker 1: the call. The Colts opened a six point favorite. They

440
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 1: are a three point favorite in this game. The thing

441
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 1: that scares me a little bit on the matchup everyone

442
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 1: betting on Washington almost eighty percent of the money be

443
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:22,879
Speaker 1: a rainy day and Indie, but inside the dome it

444
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 1: will be perfect weather at Lucas Oil Stadium, and I

445
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 1: am gonna take Washington in this game. With Taylor Heineke

446
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 1: at quarterback, the Colts the big headline here. They benched

447
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan, the washed up Matt Ryan. Sam Ellinger takes over.

448
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,640
Speaker 1: Who can't be any worse? Right, he can't be any worse.

449
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:43,880
Speaker 1: But Ellinger was a he was a six round pick

450
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:47,679
Speaker 1: a few years ago. He hasn't thrown a pass in

451
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 1: the regular season of an NFL game, So there's a

452
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,120
Speaker 1: great unknown. You know, maybe he's good, maybe we're completely

453
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 1: wrong and this guy can play. But the smart money

454
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 1: says no quarterbacks making their first career start since twenty

455
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 1: ten are eight and twelve against the spread. There's six

456
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 1: and eleven against the number overall since the start of

457
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: last season. So the trend is to bet against the

458
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 1: first time starter and anticipate he's gonna poop the bed

459
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,640
Speaker 1: at some point, and not that Taylor Heineke is all

460
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 1: that great, but I do trust him more. I know

461
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 1: what you're getting with Heineke. He's an average baseline quarterback.

462
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,400
Speaker 1: So I'll take Washington to win the game out right.

463
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 1: The team formerly known as the Redskins seven and the

464
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: Colts the old Baltimore Colts twenty three the final and

465
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 1: the penny copying you on this one with no nys

466
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 1: going with the Commandos. Alright, the Commandos. It is next up,

467
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: the last game in the late television window. It is

468
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: saying Francisco, the San Francisco treat three and four and

469
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: the l I R I am s at three and three.

470
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: It's on Fox. This is the A game and Fox

471
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 1: Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen have the call. The Rams.

472
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 1: Originally we're two and a half point favorites, but they

473
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 1: are now a one point home dog as the forty

474
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 1: Niners are favored. Most people think this is another one

475
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 1: of those free money games, betting on the give or

476
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 1: take on the side of the Niners. Seventy five agreews

477
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 1: it's so far stadium, not a dome, not a dome,

478
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 1: So seventy five and sunny, typical day in the hood

479
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 1: in Inglewood. And where do we go with this game?

480
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 1: Where do we go? Well? The obvious Komodo Dragon room.

481
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan nine in three against the spread against Sean McVeigh,

482
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:44,479
Speaker 1: including the playoff loss, with six straight covers, you know,

483
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 1: excluding that playoff game, the last six the Niners have

484
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 1: been money, money, money, and the Rams have not been

485
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 1: a good home dog of seven or less. They're one

486
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 1: in six in that spot. Jimmy Garoppolo seven and one

487
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: in his last eight against the l A Rams, and

488
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 1: the Niners have covered eight of the last ten matchups

489
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 1: in Los Angeles against the spread. But I am going

490
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 1: to be a contrarian. I'm gonna take the Rams here.

491
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 1: The forty Niners. They scooped up Christian McCaffrey from under

492
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 1: the nose of the Rams on the trade market. Now

493
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,479
Speaker 1: he plays against Sean McVeigh for the second time in

494
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 1: a month. The Rams killer is Deebo Samuel. He's got

495
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 1: a bad hammy. He's expected to play as we're doing this,

496
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 1: But how effective he'll be, we don't know. We do

497
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: know that Kyle us Check, the fullback, is gonna miss

498
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: this game. He's out. The big issue is the forty Niners,

499
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 1: uh you know, rushing Matthew Stafford and and Stafford is

500
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 1: now the king of mistakes with matt Ryan bench and

501
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 1: that obviously scares me a lot. But the Rams got

502
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 1: absolutely embarrassed by the forty nine. Is the last time

503
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 1: they played on Monday night. It was a display and

504
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:00,959
Speaker 1: how not to tackle, you'd think any I'm a professional

505
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: pride and this goes across the board, coaching and players,

506
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 1: and the Rams have gotten some more guys back since

507
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 1: that game that you know, what are you doing? I mean,

508
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 1: you're a pro team and it's an absolute embarrassment the

509
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 1: way they played in that game. So I expect a

510
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 1: much better effort here and I think the Rams bounce

511
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 1: back and get the rare wind, the rare wind over

512
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 1: the team that has haunted them from the Bay Area.

513
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 1: Rams twenty three twenty. I'm betting against the public and

514
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 1: looks like the penny is a big fan of McCaffrey's

515
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 1: girlfriend going with the Niners. Oh the Instagram model, Yeah,

516
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 1: she's a former Miss Universe. Well now she's an Instagram

517
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 1: model though at this particular moment. Next up, we moved

518
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 1: to the Sunday night football card, Green Bay three and

519
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: four at Buffalo. Here we go, Buffalo five and one.

520
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 1: It's on and be you see with Mike Tariko and

521
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 1: Chris Collinsworth the line on this game. The Bills opened

522
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 1: an eight point favorite. They are favored by eleven. The

523
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 1: Packers have been stuck in gridlocked traffic all year. They

524
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 1: have not been able to get going. And another one

525
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 1: of these games where the public is all over Buffalo.

526
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 1: It's free money, free money, free money, free money. On

527
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 1: a Sunday Bills getting over of the money. Mostly clear,

528
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 1: not bad weather at all in Buffalo, Temperatures in the

529
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 1: fifties at high Mark Stadium. And the big stat here,

530
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 1: the mother of all stats in this game, Aaron Rodgers

531
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 1: has never been more than in an eight and a

532
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 1: half point underdog in his career. That's two hundred and

533
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 1: thirty four career starts regular season and the playoffs. We

534
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 1: are told that is the most by any quarterback to

535
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 1: never be a double digit underdog in any point in

536
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl era. It's the longest streak to begin

537
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 1: a career in the Super Bowl era, and so Rogers

538
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 1: getting eleven points here green Bay oh and four against

539
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 1: the spread their last four games. That matches the longest

540
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 1: losing streak against the spread of Aaron Rodgers career. Josh

541
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 1: Allen has been great as a double digit favorite, but

542
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 1: I'm going where the value is, and the value is

543
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 1: on the side of the cheese heads, So I'm gonna

544
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 1: take the Packers in this game. This has all the

545
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 1: ingredients for a trap game for Buffalo. We're gonna take

546
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: advantage of green Bay getting those points, the public being

547
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 1: down on the Packers. The Bills are absolutely colabboring people.

548
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 1: For the most part, the Packers have been pointing their

549
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 1: finger at each other, Aaron Rodgers calling out his teammates.

550
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: Buffalo is coming off a statement win over the Chiefs.

551
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 1: They've got a bye week, so that makes this a

552
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 1: trap game where the guys are planning their vacation. Green

553
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 1: Bay is not that good right now. It is a

554
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 1: primetime game, but you got one foot into the airport

555
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: waiting to leave town. Bills will win, but the Packers

556
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:03,719
Speaker 1: is the right side of the bed here. That's too

557
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 1: many points. Bills thirty one, Packers twenty four. The final

558
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 1: and the penny going with the mafia alright, so the

559
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:17,799
Speaker 1: penny go in the other direction. Next up for US

560
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:22,439
Speaker 1: final game on the card, the Monday night football game,

561
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 1: the Monday night game Sincecinnati at four and three at

562
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 1: Cleveland two and five. It's on ESPN with the old

563
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,359
Speaker 1: Fox guys. They took the money and ran Joe Buck

564
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:38,879
Speaker 1: and Troy Aikman. The ben Gals opened up a three

565
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,239
Speaker 1: point favorite, their favorite bite three and a half and

566
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: a lot of the money almost seventy going on the

567
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,799
Speaker 1: side of Cincinnati. The Bengals have been straight cash HOMEI

568
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 1: They've covered five straight games for the first time since

569
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:54,240
Speaker 1: twenty nine. Cincinnati has not covered in six straight games

570
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 1: since nineteen three, the last time the Bengals covered in

571
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 1: six right games. They do that if they win and

572
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 1: cover on Monday Night First Energy Stadium, the site temperatures

573
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 1: in the low sixties, high fifties. As this game progresses

574
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,439
Speaker 1: through the nighttime hours, I'm gonna take the Browns here.

575
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,799
Speaker 1: We don't expect the Browns to to be blown out.

576
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 1: I don't think that that will happen. The Bengals did

577
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 1: blow out the Falcons last week. Cleveland has lost by

578
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 1: a combined nine points in four of their five loss

579
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:26,839
Speaker 1: so they've been right there, neck and neck, separated by

580
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 1: a hair here, a hair there, a hair everywhere. Joe Burrow,

581
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 1: feeling good Player of the week, sliced up the dirty

582
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 1: Birds last week. But Cleveland has a much better pass rush.

583
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 1: Atlanta was ranked thirty second in pass rush. The Browns

584
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 1: are the middle of the pack. Uh. That being said that,

585
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 1: there's a stat here that really opens your eyes to

586
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 1: how dominant the Bengals have have been the first team

587
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 1: since nineteen fifty to not allow an offensive touchdown in

588
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:59,839
Speaker 1: the second half of their first seven games. So Rick,

589
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:03,879
Speaker 1: regardless of all that, we we believe in zigging when

590
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,839
Speaker 1: everyone else zags is a winning formulas. So everyone's thinks

591
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:11,400
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Cincinnati three and a half. I'll take the hook

592
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 1: and the Browns the right side here. Cincinnati seven, Cleveland

593
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 1: the final and the penny dressed up as a time

594
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 1: for Halloween, says look Out for more borrow bombs. Going

595
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 1: with the ben Gals. All right, so that is it.

596
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 1: The final game is in the books. Good luck. Remember

597
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:39,359
Speaker 1: money management, money management, don't you shouldn't bet every game.

598
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 1: I would be I would be a little concerned if

599
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,839
Speaker 1: you did. But we do have a winning record if

600
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,359
Speaker 1: you've bet every game this year. As we said back

601
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 1: at the beginning of the podcast, but pick your spots,

602
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 1: money management, and you've gotta be willing. You gotta put

603
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 1: your neck out and be willing to bet on bad

604
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 1: teams because the teams that are getting all the money.

605
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 1: There's a reason the sports make money year after year

606
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:05,319
Speaker 1: after year. It's because they bet against public perception. So

607
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 1: that said, good luck to you, and we'll be back.

608
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 1: We have a full weekend of podcast. We've got the

609
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:14,240
Speaker 1: exclusive postgame show on the Halloween party from last weekend.

610
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 1: Nobody else has that content. We're the only show that

611
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 1: has that in podcasting and in radio, nobody can give

612
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 1: you the kind of information that we can. I know

613
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 1: you're dying to know about a Halloween party that was

614
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 1: held in the north Woods. So we've got that on

615
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 1: the agenda. Have a great, wonderful the rest of your

616
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 1: day and we'll talk to you then Asta pasta population