WEBVTT - The Story: Denial Isn’t the Answer w/ Geoffrey Hinton

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for tune into Tech Stuff. If you don't recognize

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening.

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<v Speaker 3>I was in a hotel in California and I saw

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<v Speaker 3>that the phone lit up, and I thought, who's calling

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<v Speaker 3>me at one o'clock in the morning, And then this

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<v Speaker 3>Swedish voice came on. Then they said I won the

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<v Speaker 3>Nobel Prize in Physics, and I thought, this is very odd.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't do physics, so that's when I thought it

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<v Speaker 3>might be a prank.

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<v Speaker 1>Jeffrey Hinton won the twenty twenty four Nobel Prize in Physics,

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<v Speaker 1>an honor held by Albert Einstein and Marie Curie. A

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<v Speaker 1>certain j Robert Oppenheimer were shortlisted but never won.

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<v Speaker 3>My big hope was to win the Nobel Prize in

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<v Speaker 3>Physiology or Medicine for figuring out how the brain worked.

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<v Speaker 3>And what I didn't realize is you could fail to

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<v Speaker 3>figure out how the brain worked and still get a

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<v Speaker 3>Noble Prize anyway.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to tech stuff. This is the story with our guests,

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<v Speaker 1>the Nobel Laureate Jeffrey Hinton. Each week on Wednesdays, we

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<v Speaker 1>bring you an in depth interview with someone who's at

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<v Speaker 1>the forefront of technology or who can unlock a world

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<v Speaker 1>where tech is at its most fascinating. His recent Nobel

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<v Speaker 1>Prize win was for quote foundational discoveries and inventions that

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<v Speaker 1>enable machine learning with artificial neural networks. Now, artificial neural

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<v Speaker 1>networks are learning models inspired by the network of neurons

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<v Speaker 1>present in the human brain, and Hinton's desire to figure

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<v Speaker 1>out the brain was a key inspiration for his pioneering

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<v Speaker 1>work on AI. I was particularly fascinated by Hinton because

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<v Speaker 1>his work went completely against the mainstream of computer science

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<v Speaker 1>for decades, and yet he stuck to his guns. It's

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<v Speaker 1>an incredible story of dedication in the face of personal loss.

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<v Speaker 1>Also fascinating is Hinton's relationship to his own creation. Here's

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<v Speaker 1>what he said at the Nobel Prize banquet.

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<v Speaker 3>There is also a longer term existential threat that will

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<v Speaker 3>arise when we create digital beings that are more intelligent

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<v Speaker 3>than ourselves. We have no idea whether we can stay

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<v Speaker 3>in control. But we now have evidence that if they

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<v Speaker 3>are created by companies motivated by short term profits, our

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<v Speaker 3>safety will not be the top priority. We urgently need

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<v Speaker 3>research on how to prevent these new beings from wanting

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<v Speaker 3>to take control. They are no longer science fiction, thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>So when I got the opportunity to sit down with

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<v Speaker 1>Jeffrey Hinton, I wanted to know how he went from

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<v Speaker 1>someone who wanted to understand the relationship between the mind

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<v Speaker 1>and the brain to someone who paved the path for

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<v Speaker 1>AI as we know it. And he obliged me by

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<v Speaker 1>telling me about his trajectory from student to researcher, to professor,

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<v Speaker 1>to Google employee to finally AI safety advocate.

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<v Speaker 2>Am I riding thinking with all due respect to Steve

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<v Speaker 2>Jobs and Bill Gates and marks up a bug that

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<v Speaker 2>you were, in a sense the original college dropout, not.

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<v Speaker 3>In the sense they dropped out, Because what I did

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<v Speaker 3>was I I went to Cambridge and after a month

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<v Speaker 3>I dropped out, but then I went back the next year.

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<v Speaker 3>And then while I was doing my PhD, I dropped out,

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<v Speaker 3>but then I finished it. So I'm not like them.

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<v Speaker 4>I went back. I'm a failed to drop out.

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<v Speaker 2>Failed to drop out, that's good. What were the reasons for?

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<v Speaker 2>Was it uncertainty or ambivalence or curiosity or so.

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<v Speaker 3>When I first went to Cambridge, it was the first

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<v Speaker 3>time I'd ever lived away from home, and I'd always

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<v Speaker 3>my image of myself was that it was one of

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<v Speaker 3>the clever ones. And when I went to Cambridge, I

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<v Speaker 3>wasn't one of the clever ones. Everybody was clever, and

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<v Speaker 3>I found it very stressful. I worked very, very hard,

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<v Speaker 3>so I was working like twelve hours a day doing science,

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<v Speaker 3>and the combination of working very hard to keep up

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<v Speaker 3>and living away from home for the first time was

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<v Speaker 3>just too much for me.

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<v Speaker 2>So there was a fantastic profile of you in the

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<v Speaker 2>New Yorker which said, quote, Hinton tried different feels but

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<v Speaker 2>was dismayed to find that he was never the brightest

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<v Speaker 2>student in any given class, which made me smile. But

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<v Speaker 2>I guess dismay and stress are quite a close cousins,

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<v Speaker 2>And I suppose the stakes for you were high given

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<v Speaker 2>the family you came from. Can you speak a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit about that.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, I had a lot of pressure from my father

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<v Speaker 3>to be an academic success, and my mother sort of

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<v Speaker 3>went along with it. So from an early age I

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<v Speaker 3>realized that's what I had to achieve, and that's a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of pressure.

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<v Speaker 2>How did they exert that pressure? How are you aware

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<v Speaker 2>of it?

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<v Speaker 3>My father was a slightly strange character. He grew up

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<v Speaker 3>in Mexico during all the revolutions without a mother, somewhat odd.

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<v Speaker 3>Every morning when I went to school, not every morning,

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<v Speaker 3>but quite often, as I left, you would say, get

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<v Speaker 3>in their pitching. If you work very hard, when you're

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<v Speaker 3>twice as old as me, you might be half as good.

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<v Speaker 4>Well that's sort of pressure.

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<v Speaker 2>Did you find that motivating?

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<v Speaker 4>I found it irritating, but I think it probably was motivating.

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<v Speaker 4>He very inconsiderately.

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<v Speaker 3>He died while I was writing my thesis, and he

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<v Speaker 3>never saw me being a success.

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<v Speaker 2>You were at Cambridge, you left briefly and you came back.

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<v Speaker 2>I think you settled on experimental psychology as your degree.

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<v Speaker 4>In the end, I was doing natural sciences.

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<v Speaker 3>I started off doing physics chemist ring crystalline state because

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<v Speaker 3>of the success in decoding the structure of DNA. Crystalline

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<v Speaker 3>state was a big thing, and I left after a month.

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<v Speaker 3>Then I reapplied to do architecture. I've always liked oarchitecture,

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<v Speaker 3>and after a day I decided I was never going

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<v Speaker 3>to be any good architecture because I wasn't I wasn't

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<v Speaker 3>artistic enough. I loved the engineering, but the artistic bit

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<v Speaker 3>I couldn't do very well. So I switched back to science.

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<v Speaker 3>But then I did physics, chemistry and physiology, and I

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<v Speaker 3>really liked physiology. I'd never been allowed to do biology

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<v Speaker 3>at school.

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<v Speaker 4>My father wouldn't allow it.

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<v Speaker 3>Why not, Ah well, he said, if you do biology,

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<v Speaker 3>they'll teach you genetics. And he was a Stalinist and

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<v Speaker 3>he didn't believe in genetics. Now, he was also a

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<v Speaker 3>fellow of the British Royal Society in Biology who didn't

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<v Speaker 3>believe in genetics.

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<v Speaker 2>Gosh, complicated man, Yes, but I mean he really you

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<v Speaker 2>won't exaggerated him. He said to you, you can't study biology.

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<v Speaker 4>Now.

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<v Speaker 3>He had other reasons which weren't so bad, which is,

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<v Speaker 3>you can always pick up biology when you're older. What

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<v Speaker 3>you can't pick up when you're older is math. And

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's probably true, and so that was a

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<v Speaker 3>more valid reason.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, So what did you end up graduating from

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<v Speaker 2>Cambridge with a degree in psychology?

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<v Speaker 3>So I did physics, chemistry and physiology for a year,

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<v Speaker 3>and I did very well in physics. I got a

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<v Speaker 3>first in physics. That's obviously a good predictor of a

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<v Speaker 3>Nobel Price.

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<v Speaker 2>Said, your tutors would have been there.

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<v Speaker 3>Then I dropped it all and did philosophy, philosophy, philosophy.

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<v Speaker 3>I did a year of philosophy and I developed strong antibodies,

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<v Speaker 3>and then I switched to psychology, and so my final

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<v Speaker 3>degree was in psychology.

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<v Speaker 2>MHM. And was there a single question or set of

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<v Speaker 2>questions that you were in search of.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, I wanted to know how the how the brain worked,

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<v Speaker 3>and how the mind worked, and what the relationship was.

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<v Speaker 3>I decided fairly early on that you're never going to

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<v Speaker 3>understand the mind unless you understood the brain.

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<v Speaker 2>Was that a popular view at the time.

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<v Speaker 4>No, not really.

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<v Speaker 3>There was this kind of functionalist view that basically the

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<v Speaker 3>view that came from computer software, which is that the

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<v Speaker 3>software is totally different from the hardware, and what the

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<v Speaker 3>mind is all about is software, the heuristics you use

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<v Speaker 3>and the way you represent things. The hardware has got

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<v Speaker 3>nothing to do with it. That's a completely crazy view,

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<v Speaker 3>but it seemed very plausible at the time, and so

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<v Speaker 3>the computers we designed so that we could program them,

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<v Speaker 3>had programs being a completely separate domain from hardware.

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<v Speaker 4>But that's not how the real brain is.

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<v Speaker 2>Was as funny this constant dance between us expecting our

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<v Speaker 2>computers to be like us, and then expecting us to

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<v Speaker 2>be like our computers, right as a kind of continual

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<v Speaker 2>dance between those two things.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, well, you always try and understand things in terms

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<v Speaker 3>of the latest technology. So when telephones were new, the

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<v Speaker 3>brain was clearly a very large telephone switchboard.

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<v Speaker 2>But is it different this time in our AI has

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<v Speaker 2>taken off and become ubiquitous. Do you think this is

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<v Speaker 2>indeed more than the telephone?

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, I think these artimicial neural networks for training are

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<v Speaker 3>in many respects quite like real neural networks. Obviously, the

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<v Speaker 3>neurons are much simpler. There's all sorts of properties that

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<v Speaker 3>are different in the brain, but basically they're working in

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<v Speaker 3>the same way. They learn things by changing connection strengths

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<v Speaker 3>between neurons, just like the brain does.

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<v Speaker 2>And when does that question for you of wanting to

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<v Speaker 2>understand how the brain works really really begin?

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<v Speaker 3>When I was at high school, so even before I

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<v Speaker 3>went to Cambridge, I had a very bright friend who

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<v Speaker 3>was always smarter than me called Inmund Harvey, who came

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<v Speaker 3>into school one day and said, maybe memories in the

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<v Speaker 3>brain are spread out over the whole brain. They're not

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<v Speaker 3>localized like a hologram, because holograms when you so he

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<v Speaker 3>was trying to understand memories in the brain in terms

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<v Speaker 3>of this new technology of holograms.

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<v Speaker 2>And you were stimulated by this idea.

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<v Speaker 4>I was very stimulated by that.

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<v Speaker 3>It's very interesting idea, and ever since then I've thought

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<v Speaker 3>a lot about how memories are represented in the brain.

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<v Speaker 3>And then that also led into well how does the

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<v Speaker 3>brain learn stuff?

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up how Jeffrey Hinton ended up at Google.

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<v Speaker 2>Stay with us, so bear with me, but I need

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<v Speaker 2>to try and summarize what the Boltziman machine is because

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<v Speaker 2>the Nobel Prize Committee credited the Boltzman machine with your win.

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<v Speaker 2>According to their press release, the Boltzman machine can quote

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<v Speaker 2>learn to recognize characteristic elements in a given type of data.

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<v Speaker 2>The machine is trained by feeding it examples that are

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<v Speaker 2>very likely to arise. The Boltzmer machine can be used

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<v Speaker 2>to classify images or create new examples of the type

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<v Speaker 2>of pattern on which it was trained. Hinton has built

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<v Speaker 2>upon this work helping initiate the current explosive development of

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<v Speaker 2>machine learning. Now, in fact, the timeline right, you graduated

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<v Speaker 2>from Cambridge, you worked on your PhD, and in the

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<v Speaker 2>eighties you wound up at Connigie Mellon and that's where

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<v Speaker 2>you work on the bolt of machine really took off.

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<v Speaker 4>Uh yes, just before I went to Carnegie Mellon.

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<v Speaker 2>Now am I writing thinking? At the time, there was

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<v Speaker 2>a kind of debate that you were on the unpopular

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<v Speaker 2>side of about artificial intelligence.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, so there's two things to say about that. From

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<v Speaker 3>the earliest days of AI in the nineteen fifties, there

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<v Speaker 3>were these two approaches, two kind of paradigms. So how

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<v Speaker 3>you build an intelligence system. One was inspired by the brain,

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<v Speaker 3>that was neural networks. Then the other paradigm was no, no, no, no.

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<v Speaker 3>Logic is a paradigm for intelligence. Intelligence is all about reasoning.

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<v Speaker 3>Learning comes later once we figured out how reasoning works,

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<v Speaker 3>and reasoning depends on having the right representations for things.

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<v Speaker 3>So we have to figure out what kind of logically

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<v Speaker 3>unambiguous language the brain is using so that it can

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<v Speaker 3>use rules to do reasoning. It's a completely different approach

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<v Speaker 3>and it's very unbiological because reasoning something comes very late,

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<v Speaker 3>and actually from most of the second half of the

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<v Speaker 3>last century, neural networks weren't seen as AI. AI was

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<v Speaker 3>believing you have symbolic rules in your head and then

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<v Speaker 3>manipulated using rules, using to screet symbolic rules.

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<v Speaker 2>And what was what were neural? They were seen as

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<v Speaker 2>statistics or physically.

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<v Speaker 3>They were seen as this crazy idea that you could

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<v Speaker 3>take this random neural network and just learn everything, which

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<v Speaker 3>was obviously hopeless.

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<v Speaker 2>And what what gave you this conviction?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the brain has to learn somehow, and of course

0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:38.200
<v Speaker 3>there's a lot of innate structure whir i'd in, which

0:12:38.200 --> 0:12:40.160
<v Speaker 3>explains why a goat can sort of drop out of

0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:44.440
<v Speaker 3>the womb and five minutes later it's walking. But so

0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:47.360
<v Speaker 3>stuff like learning to read, that's all learned. That's not innate,

0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:49.760
<v Speaker 3>and we have to figure out how that works, and

0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:51.080
<v Speaker 3>it's not symbolic rules.

0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:55.560
<v Speaker 2>This conviction that you have now, did you always have?

0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:57.040
<v Speaker 4>Yes?

0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:02.360
<v Speaker 3>Sorry to say it seemed to me it was obviously right.

0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:04.760
<v Speaker 3>I think part of that is I was sent to

0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:08.000
<v Speaker 3>a private school when I was seven from an atheist family,

0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:13.720
<v Speaker 3>and they started telling me about religion and all this rubbish,

0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:18.760
<v Speaker 3>all the stuff that was obviously nonsense, and I had

0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:20.600
<v Speaker 3>the experience of being the only kid at school who

0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.040
<v Speaker 3>thought this was all nonsense and turning out to be right.

0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:25.880
<v Speaker 4>And that's very good training for a scientist.

0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:29.000
<v Speaker 2>I brought it up earlier, but there was a wonderful

0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:31.880
<v Speaker 2>profile of you in the New Yorker titled why the

0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:35.760
<v Speaker 2>Godfather of Ai fears what He's built, And there was

0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:39.439
<v Speaker 2>a quote that I found quite stunning where you said

0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:42.280
<v Speaker 2>I was dead in the water at forty six.

0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:50.160
<v Speaker 3>Yes, my wife and I adopted to children, to babies,

0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:58.120
<v Speaker 3>and then my wife got ovarying cancer. But she also,

0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:01.080
<v Speaker 3>even though she was a science she started believing in

0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:05.040
<v Speaker 3>homeopathy and she tried treating her very in cancer with homeopathy,

0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:08.400
<v Speaker 3>and so she died and.

0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:10.520
<v Speaker 4>I was left with.

0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:12.480
<v Speaker 3>Two young children, one of three and one of five,

0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:22.600
<v Speaker 3>who were both very upset, as was I, and I

0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:25.840
<v Speaker 3>began to appreciate what life is like for female academics,

0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:28.240
<v Speaker 3>which is impossible.

0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:29.840
<v Speaker 4>You can't.

0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:35.320
<v Speaker 3>Looking after small children makes it very very hard to

0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:39.040
<v Speaker 3>spend long periods of time thinking about your current idea.

0:14:40.520 --> 0:14:41.680
<v Speaker 3>It's just very difficult.

0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:46.320
<v Speaker 2>So you were bereaved, you were looking after two small children,

0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:49.320
<v Speaker 2>and then yes, that moment in twenty twelve when you

0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:55.040
<v Speaker 2>publish a paper called ImageNet classification with deep convolutional neural networks,

0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:58.680
<v Speaker 2>which to the layman doesn't sound like something that would

0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:02.520
<v Speaker 2>change the world and how we live, but it did well.

0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:06.400
<v Speaker 3>It changed the views of people in computer vision and

0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:08.760
<v Speaker 3>the views of people in other areas of computer science.

0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:13.800
<v Speaker 3>It basically showed neural networks actually do work. Now, people

0:15:13.840 --> 0:15:15.920
<v Speaker 3>have showed that before, but it hadn't convinced people the

0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:16.440
<v Speaker 3>same way.

0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:19.680
<v Speaker 2>See, you published that paper in twenty twelve with Iliot

0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:21.920
<v Speaker 2>sutch Keva, who went on to be a very important

0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:23.840
<v Speaker 2>figure at open AI and I want to talk more

0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:27.080
<v Speaker 2>about him. But within a few days of the publication

0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:30.600
<v Speaker 2>of that paper, you had an offer of millions and

0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:33.720
<v Speaker 2>millions of dollars to move to China.

0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:37.000
<v Speaker 3>Ah. Yeah, either to move to China or to let

0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:38.720
<v Speaker 3>them invest in our group.

0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:41.200
<v Speaker 4>I think it was a bit longer than a few days,

0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:42.840
<v Speaker 4>but it was. It was that fall for sure.

0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:45.280
<v Speaker 2>Did you kind of know, Okay, we're going to publish

0:15:45.520 --> 0:15:49.680
<v Speaker 2>and this is going to change everything or are you

0:15:49.720 --> 0:15:51.040
<v Speaker 2>surprised by this response.

0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:53.400
<v Speaker 3>We thought it would have a big effect. We didn't

0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:54.760
<v Speaker 3>realize quite how big.

0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:59.120
<v Speaker 2>And when you got the call from Baidu, Chinese tech company,

0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:02.080
<v Speaker 2>What did you think, I mean, it must have been tempting.

0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:07.800
<v Speaker 3>H yes, I think they said they could fund our group,

0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:10.000
<v Speaker 3>or they could we could go and work for them,

0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:14.200
<v Speaker 3>or various possible alternatives. And in the end I just

0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:16.160
<v Speaker 3>asked them, well, how much money are we talking about?

0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:20.680
<v Speaker 3>Are you talking about like ten million dollars? And they said, yes.

0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:22.160
<v Speaker 2>You localed yourself.

0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:24.600
<v Speaker 4>I didn't think it at the time.

0:16:25.720 --> 0:16:27.240
<v Speaker 3>I thought of the biggest number I could think of,

0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:32.240
<v Speaker 3>it was five million dollars and doubled it. So once

0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:34.520
<v Speaker 3>they said that, I realized we had no idea how

0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:37.760
<v Speaker 3>much we were worth. And so at that point we

0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:39.320
<v Speaker 3>decided to set up an auction.

0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:41.720
<v Speaker 2>What does it mean to set up an auction for

0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:43.200
<v Speaker 2>an academic paper?

0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:47.560
<v Speaker 3>The three of us founded a company. The company that

0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:50.680
<v Speaker 3>belonged to the three of us owned these six pandent applications,

0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:54.360
<v Speaker 3>so then we had something to sell, but mainly we

0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:57.560
<v Speaker 3>were selling ourselves. But I insisted that I still be

0:16:57.600 --> 0:17:00.520
<v Speaker 3>an academic so I could continue to advise my current students.

0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:04.120
<v Speaker 3>That was a big problem because Google had never done

0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:06.400
<v Speaker 3>that before. They were one of the companies.

0:17:06.440 --> 0:17:08.760
<v Speaker 2>The bid for us, so by do Google.

0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:12.560
<v Speaker 3>Microsoft and deep Mind, which wasn't owned by Google then.

0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:16.359
<v Speaker 2>And not only do you invent this well together with

0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:19.359
<v Speaker 2>your colleagues, this advancement of neural nets, but you also

0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:24.320
<v Speaker 2>invented your own process to sell this company essentially, right.

0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:30.119
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we decided we just have an auction by Gmail,

0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:34.480
<v Speaker 3>and you'd send me Gmail with your bid, and the

0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:37.440
<v Speaker 3>time of the bid would be the timestamp on the Gmail.

0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:40.200
<v Speaker 3>I would then immediately send the bid to all the

0:17:40.240 --> 0:17:44.400
<v Speaker 3>other bidders, and you had to raise by a million dollars,

0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:47.480
<v Speaker 3>and if there was no bid within an hour of

0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:48.960
<v Speaker 3>the last bid, that was the end of the auction.

0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 3>I was amazed to see that the bids would come

0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:55.560
<v Speaker 3>in fifty nine minutes after the previous bid. Would be

0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.440
<v Speaker 3>sitting there think okay, it's over, and then fifty nine

0:17:58.440 --> 0:17:59.720
<v Speaker 3>minutes later a bid would come in.

0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:02.200
<v Speaker 2>Only everybody trusted Gmail.

0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:05.800
<v Speaker 3>I had worked at Google over the summer, and that

0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:08.199
<v Speaker 3>meant two things. One, I did trust that they wouldn't

0:18:08.200 --> 0:18:11.320
<v Speaker 3>read my Gmail. I knew they were very serious about that.

0:18:12.280 --> 0:18:15.960
<v Speaker 3>And also I really wanted Google to win the competition

0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:18.840
<v Speaker 3>because I really like Jeff Dean, who ran the brain

0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:22.640
<v Speaker 3>team at Google. So I wanted Google to win, and

0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:26.240
<v Speaker 3>in the end we slightly fudged it. So after deep

0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:29.119
<v Speaker 3>minded Microsoft had dropped out, it was between Google and

0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:32.800
<v Speaker 3>by Do, and we were scared by You would win,

0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:35.159
<v Speaker 3>and I didn't want to go to China.

0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:39.240
<v Speaker 4>I couldn't travel at that point, well, so I felt

0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:39.960
<v Speaker 4>I wouldn't.

0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:43.040
<v Speaker 3>Really understand what was going on in a Chinese company.

0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:46.919
<v Speaker 3>So it got to forty four million, and we just

0:18:47.000 --> 0:18:50.120
<v Speaker 3>said we've got an offer we can't refuse, and it's

0:18:50.160 --> 0:18:52.520
<v Speaker 3>the end of the auction. And the offer we couldn't

0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:54.320
<v Speaker 3>refuse was to work with Jeff Deane.

0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:58.240
<v Speaker 2>So you got what you wanted in the sense of.

0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:00.200
<v Speaker 3>We've got more money than we could imagine, and we

0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:03.040
<v Speaker 3>got to work at the company that I wanted most

0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:03.600
<v Speaker 3>to work.

0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:10.119
<v Speaker 1>With when we come back. Nobel Laureate Jeffrey Hinton on

0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:27.520
<v Speaker 1>why he advocates for AI safety. In twenty eighteen, you

0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:29.639
<v Speaker 1>receive the Touring Award, which is kind of like the

0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:33.320
<v Speaker 1>Nobel Prize for Computer Science. But also in twenty eighteen,

0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:36.399
<v Speaker 1>you were widowed for a second time. You lost your

0:19:36.440 --> 0:19:40.000
<v Speaker 1>wife Rosalind in nineteen ninety four, and then twenty four

0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:44.200
<v Speaker 1>years later your wife Jackie passed away also from cancer.

0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:52.560
<v Speaker 3>Yes, that was that was difficult. I didn't have My

0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:54.840
<v Speaker 3>children were much older then, so I didn't have the

0:19:54.840 --> 0:19:57.520
<v Speaker 3>problem of having to cope with young children at the

0:19:57.520 --> 0:20:01.720
<v Speaker 3>same time as everything else. And Google was very understanding.

0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:04.160
<v Speaker 3>Part of my deal had been that I would spend

0:20:04.200 --> 0:20:09.720
<v Speaker 3>three months a year in Silicon Valley, and they let

0:20:09.760 --> 0:20:11.000
<v Speaker 3>me out of that and said I could spend my

0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:14.800
<v Speaker 3>whole time in Toronto, and they helped me set up

0:20:14.800 --> 0:20:19.000
<v Speaker 3>a small lab doing basic research in Toronto, so that

0:20:19.119 --> 0:20:23.359
<v Speaker 3>was much less stressful, so I could be with my wife.

0:20:23.640 --> 0:20:26.479
<v Speaker 4>She had cancer as well, she got pancreatic cancer.

0:20:29.359 --> 0:20:32.520
<v Speaker 2>One of the most striking things, again in the New

0:20:32.560 --> 0:20:38.760
<v Speaker 2>Yorker piece, was the way you talked about observing the

0:20:38.800 --> 0:20:45.760
<v Speaker 2>way in which Rosalind and Jackie approached their cancer as

0:20:45.800 --> 0:20:50.760
<v Speaker 2>a mental model for how to think about the implications

0:20:50.760 --> 0:20:52.040
<v Speaker 2>of artificial intelligence.

0:20:52.680 --> 0:20:55.359
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that's a rather sort of dark scenario.

0:20:57.440 --> 0:20:59.840
<v Speaker 3>So occasionally when I think, well, lis stuff probably will

0:20:59.840 --> 0:21:05.679
<v Speaker 3>take over, which I sometimes think, then there's the issue

0:21:05.720 --> 0:21:10.800
<v Speaker 3>of should you go into denial and say no, no, no, no,

0:21:10.840 --> 0:21:15.080
<v Speaker 3>this can't possibly happen, which is what my first wife did. Actually,

0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:17.040
<v Speaker 3>she wasn't my first wife I was married a long

0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:25.680
<v Speaker 3>time before that, just briefly, and so Ross went into

0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:31.040
<v Speaker 3>denial and Jackie was very realistic about it. And maybe

0:21:31.080 --> 0:21:34.440
<v Speaker 3>we should be very realistic about the possibility machines will

0:21:34.480 --> 0:21:37.040
<v Speaker 3>take over. We should do our best to make sure

0:21:37.080 --> 0:21:40.680
<v Speaker 3>that doesn't happen, but we should also think about whether

0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:43.440
<v Speaker 3>there's ways of making that if that does happen, whether

0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:46.280
<v Speaker 3>there's ways of making it not so bad, whether people

0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:48.639
<v Speaker 3>could still be around even if the machines were in control,

0:21:48.680 --> 0:21:49.240
<v Speaker 3>for example.

0:21:49.640 --> 0:21:51.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean there's something. I mean, you use the

0:21:51.800 --> 0:21:56.800
<v Speaker 2>word dark, but you've seen your life's work in many

0:21:56.800 --> 0:22:02.080
<v Speaker 2>ways kind of fruition, haunted by these thoughts of how

0:22:02.119 --> 0:22:06.680
<v Speaker 2>to deal with something as awful as the terminal council diagnosis.

0:22:07.200 --> 0:22:09.919
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, you have to be careful what you wish for.

0:22:11.440 --> 0:22:17.040
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean my mentioned Oppenheimer at the beginning in

0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:20.040
<v Speaker 2>terms of a Nobel Well, he wasn't almost a physics gloriate.

0:22:20.080 --> 0:22:20.800
<v Speaker 2>He wasn't in the end.

0:22:22.000 --> 0:22:24.800
<v Speaker 3>Yes, it's rather absurd, isn't it That I've got a

0:22:24.880 --> 0:22:26.800
<v Speaker 3>Nobel Prize in physics and Oppenheimer didn't.

0:22:27.240 --> 0:22:29.080
<v Speaker 4>That's utterly ridiculous.

0:22:30.119 --> 0:22:35.000
<v Speaker 3>I should say something people, particularly journalists, like to say well,

0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:36.680
<v Speaker 3>how would you compare yourself with Oppenheimer?

0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:39.199
<v Speaker 4>And there's two big differences.

0:22:40.520 --> 0:22:44.960
<v Speaker 3>One is that Oppenheimer really was crucial to the development

0:22:45.000 --> 0:22:50.360
<v Speaker 3>of the atomic bomb. He managed the science of it.

0:22:50.840 --> 0:22:54.040
<v Speaker 3>He was a single, extremely important figure with the development

0:22:54.080 --> 0:22:57.840
<v Speaker 3>of AI. There's a bunch of us, and if I

0:22:57.880 --> 0:23:02.240
<v Speaker 3>hadn't been around, all stuff would have happened. That's one difference.

0:23:02.440 --> 0:23:06.240
<v Speaker 3>The other difference is that atomic bombs aren't good for

0:23:06.320 --> 0:23:07.040
<v Speaker 3>anything good.

0:23:07.480 --> 0:23:08.560
<v Speaker 4>They're just for destruction.

0:23:10.080 --> 0:23:12.719
<v Speaker 3>They actually did try using them for fracking in Colorado,

0:23:12.960 --> 0:23:14.159
<v Speaker 3>but that didn't work out too.

0:23:14.000 --> 0:23:16.680
<v Speaker 4>Well and you can't go there anymore.

0:23:16.920 --> 0:23:19.200
<v Speaker 3>The big difference is most of the uses of AI

0:23:19.280 --> 0:23:22.920
<v Speaker 3>are very good. It can lead to huge increases in productivity,

0:23:23.440 --> 0:23:28.679
<v Speaker 3>huge improvements in healthcare, might help a lot with climate change.

0:23:29.520 --> 0:23:34.040
<v Speaker 3>So AI is going to be developed because of all

0:23:34.080 --> 0:23:38.560
<v Speaker 3>those huge beneficial uses. And that's very different from atomic bombs,

0:23:38.560 --> 0:23:41.480
<v Speaker 3>where there was a possibility of not developing the H bomb.

0:23:42.680 --> 0:23:46.600
<v Speaker 2>And why have you taken it upon yourself as your responsibility?

0:23:46.600 --> 0:23:49.920
<v Speaker 2>And you quit Google in twenty twenty three and since

0:23:49.960 --> 0:23:54.720
<v Speaker 2>then have become one of the most vocal and qualified

0:23:54.760 --> 0:23:56.600
<v Speaker 2>people in the world warning of these risks.

0:23:57.400 --> 0:23:58.800
<v Speaker 4>Well, I'm old.

0:24:00.440 --> 0:24:05.639
<v Speaker 3>I'm too old to do original research anymore, but people

0:24:05.680 --> 0:24:08.520
<v Speaker 3>listen to me, and I really believe these risks are

0:24:08.600 --> 0:24:12.000
<v Speaker 3>very real and very important, so I don't really have

0:24:12.080 --> 0:24:16.000
<v Speaker 3>much choice. We are going to develop AI because it's

0:24:16.000 --> 0:24:16.360
<v Speaker 3>got so.

0:24:16.320 --> 0:24:17.240
<v Speaker 4>Many good uses.

0:24:18.200 --> 0:24:20.240
<v Speaker 3>So I'm not warning against developing it, and I'm not

0:24:20.280 --> 0:24:25.000
<v Speaker 3>saying slow down. What I'm saying is try and develop

0:24:25.040 --> 0:24:27.120
<v Speaker 3>it as safely as you can. Try and figure out,

0:24:27.320 --> 0:24:31.280
<v Speaker 3>in particular, how you can stop it eventually taking over,

0:24:32.920 --> 0:24:35.359
<v Speaker 3>but also think about all the other shorter term risks

0:24:35.920 --> 0:24:39.960
<v Speaker 3>like fake videos, corrupting elections, and loss of jobs. I'm

0:24:39.960 --> 0:24:42.320
<v Speaker 3>saying we need to worry about all those things, and

0:24:42.400 --> 0:24:46.719
<v Speaker 3>it might be rational to just stop developing it, but

0:24:46.800 --> 0:24:48.879
<v Speaker 3>I'm not. I don't think there's any hope of that,

0:24:48.920 --> 0:24:49.920
<v Speaker 3>so I'm not advocating that.

0:24:51.240 --> 0:24:55.080
<v Speaker 2>You said in December there was a ten to twenty

0:24:55.119 --> 0:24:58.800
<v Speaker 2>percent risk that AI would cause human extinction in the

0:24:58.840 --> 0:25:03.479
<v Speaker 2>next thirty years. How do you count with those odds?

0:25:04.080 --> 0:25:05.000
<v Speaker 4>I just make them up.

0:25:05.280 --> 0:25:11.919
<v Speaker 3>That's I'm just like, no. If you think about subjective probabilities,

0:25:12.440 --> 0:25:17.200
<v Speaker 3>they're based on intuition. I have a very strong intuition

0:25:17.960 --> 0:25:21.760
<v Speaker 3>that the chance of super intelligent machines taking over from

0:25:21.800 --> 0:25:25.560
<v Speaker 3>people is more than one percent, and I have a

0:25:25.640 --> 0:25:28.040
<v Speaker 3>very strong intuition that is less than ninety nine percent.

0:25:29.040 --> 0:25:33.440
<v Speaker 3>We're dealing with something extremely unknown, so your best bet

0:25:33.440 --> 0:25:36.359
<v Speaker 3>for things totally unknown is maybe fifty percent, but that

0:25:36.400 --> 0:25:38.280
<v Speaker 3>doesn't work very well because it depends on how you

0:25:38.320 --> 0:25:39.440
<v Speaker 3>partition things.

0:25:40.400 --> 0:25:42.199
<v Speaker 4>So clearly the chance is.

0:25:42.240 --> 0:25:44.000
<v Speaker 3>Much bigger than one percent and much les than ninety

0:25:44.080 --> 0:25:46.359
<v Speaker 3>nine percent, and maybe I should just stick at that.

0:25:47.480 --> 0:25:50.000
<v Speaker 3>But I'm hoping that we can figure out a way

0:25:50.320 --> 0:25:52.840
<v Speaker 3>that people can stay in control, because we're people and

0:25:52.840 --> 0:25:54.000
<v Speaker 3>what we care about is people.

0:25:54.160 --> 0:25:56.119
<v Speaker 2>Now, do you view it as inevitable that if we

0:25:56.240 --> 0:26:00.480
<v Speaker 2>if we quote unquote lose control, our destruction that is

0:26:00.520 --> 0:26:02.280
<v Speaker 2>the is the next No, they.

0:26:02.240 --> 0:26:04.040
<v Speaker 4>Might I een on Musk for example.

0:26:05.080 --> 0:26:08.119
<v Speaker 3>I talked to him and he pushed the line that

0:26:08.720 --> 0:26:11.080
<v Speaker 3>they'll keep us around as pets because we're quite interesting.

0:26:12.080 --> 0:26:12.480
<v Speaker 2>M hmm.

0:26:13.640 --> 0:26:16.040
<v Speaker 4>It seems a rather sort of thin thread to hang

0:26:16.160 --> 0:26:17.160
<v Speaker 4>human existence by.

0:26:18.800 --> 0:26:21.399
<v Speaker 2>So, I mean, you've been vocal about the kind of

0:26:22.240 --> 0:26:29.360
<v Speaker 2>overall societal threat, but you've also been specifically critical of

0:26:29.920 --> 0:26:31.040
<v Speaker 2>Sambleman in particular.

0:26:31.920 --> 0:26:35.199
<v Speaker 3>Yes, because I think open Aye was set up to

0:26:35.280 --> 0:26:41.200
<v Speaker 3>develop a GI safely, and it's just been progressively moving

0:26:41.240 --> 0:26:47.800
<v Speaker 3>away from that towards developing a for profit and so

0:26:48.160 --> 0:26:52.600
<v Speaker 3>it's best safety researchers have left and it's now trying

0:26:52.600 --> 0:26:55.080
<v Speaker 3>to convert itself from a not for profit company into

0:26:55.119 --> 0:26:58.919
<v Speaker 3>a for profit company. And that seems entirely wrong to me.

0:26:59.480 --> 0:27:03.479
<v Speaker 2>And you're I'm a colleague and student. Ilius Atsgev, who

0:27:03.600 --> 0:27:07.160
<v Speaker 2>worked on the twenty twelve paper with took a big

0:27:07.320 --> 0:27:09.720
<v Speaker 2>stand on this, which ultimately didn't break his way.

0:27:10.080 --> 0:27:13.280
<v Speaker 3>It didn't break his way in terms of Sam being

0:27:13.280 --> 0:27:16.600
<v Speaker 3>fired as the head of the company. It did break

0:27:16.640 --> 0:27:20.359
<v Speaker 3>his way in terms of people understanding that open Ai

0:27:20.760 --> 0:27:23.840
<v Speaker 3>was going back on its pledge to develop Aji safely

0:27:24.680 --> 0:27:26.200
<v Speaker 3>and India is now set up a company.

0:27:26.760 --> 0:27:27.800
<v Speaker 4>I'm that's trying to do that.

0:27:28.840 --> 0:27:31.960
<v Speaker 2>I mean, if if Samaltman called you tomorrow through Toronto

0:27:32.240 --> 0:27:35.000
<v Speaker 2>and he were sitting with him, he said, you know,

0:27:35.720 --> 0:27:37.400
<v Speaker 2>where have I gone wrong? And what should I do?

0:27:39.280 --> 0:27:39.840
<v Speaker 2>What do you say?

0:27:41.600 --> 0:27:43.560
<v Speaker 4>I'd say, you're not Sam Altman.

0:27:46.560 --> 0:27:47.119
<v Speaker 2>Fair enough?

0:27:47.320 --> 0:27:47.639
<v Speaker 4>Okay.

0:27:47.760 --> 0:27:51.080
<v Speaker 3>So suppose something very surprising happens and Sam Altman suddenly

0:27:51.080 --> 0:27:53.840
<v Speaker 3>has an epiphany and says, oh my god, we shouldn't

0:27:53.880 --> 0:27:55.480
<v Speaker 3>be doing this for a profit. We should be doing

0:27:55.480 --> 0:27:58.639
<v Speaker 3>it to protect humanity. I'd be very happy to doctor.

0:27:59.160 --> 0:28:02.120
<v Speaker 2>But what if you could affect his opinion in one

0:28:02.160 --> 0:28:03.640
<v Speaker 2>way or that of other.

0:28:04.040 --> 0:28:07.200
<v Speaker 3>I would say, keep developing AI, but use a large

0:28:07.200 --> 0:28:11.160
<v Speaker 3>fraction of the resources as you're developing it to try

0:28:11.160 --> 0:28:12.720
<v Speaker 3>and figure out ways in which you might get out

0:28:12.760 --> 0:28:15.000
<v Speaker 3>of control and what we could do about that. So

0:28:15.040 --> 0:28:19.000
<v Speaker 3>if Sam Olman said we're going to use thirty percent

0:28:19.000 --> 0:28:21.879
<v Speaker 3>of our compute, how much compute we have, we use

0:28:21.960 --> 0:28:26.720
<v Speaker 3>thirty percent to get highly paid safety researchers to do

0:28:26.800 --> 0:28:30.840
<v Speaker 3>research on safety, not on making it better, developing for

0:28:30.920 --> 0:28:34.680
<v Speaker 3>the bit on making it safe, I'd take it all back,

0:28:34.680 --> 0:28:35.680
<v Speaker 3>and I'd say he is a great guy.

0:28:36.040 --> 0:28:38.600
<v Speaker 2>I mean for a non for profit, that doesn't sound

0:28:38.640 --> 0:28:40.520
<v Speaker 2>like unreasonable exactly.

0:28:40.600 --> 0:28:44.239
<v Speaker 3>That that was what I thought was happening to begin with,

0:28:45.160 --> 0:28:46.800
<v Speaker 3>and that was what idiot thought was happening.

0:28:47.320 --> 0:28:49.880
<v Speaker 2>Right before Christmas, there was an article in the Wall

0:28:49.920 --> 0:28:52.960
<v Speaker 2>Street Journal basically saying that chat GIPT five was behind

0:28:52.960 --> 0:28:57.520
<v Speaker 2>schedule and that kind of the pace of improvement in

0:28:58.240 --> 0:29:01.960
<v Speaker 2>deep learning was lowing for different because of lack of

0:29:02.480 --> 0:29:05.440
<v Speaker 2>real world data. Could be other reasons, But then O

0:29:05.600 --> 0:29:08.480
<v Speaker 2>three came out and Settlement sort of said that AGI

0:29:08.680 --> 0:29:11.560
<v Speaker 2>is here. Where do you think we are on this agi?

0:29:11.680 --> 0:29:13.479
<v Speaker 2>Do you think it's even a relevant metric?

0:29:14.000 --> 0:29:18.520
<v Speaker 3>So Ever, since twenty twelve, there've been people saying AI

0:29:18.600 --> 0:29:21.440
<v Speaker 3>is about to hit a wall. So Gary Marcus made

0:29:21.440 --> 0:29:24.640
<v Speaker 3>a strong prediction in twenty twenty two that AI was

0:29:24.680 --> 0:29:30.400
<v Speaker 3>hitting a wall and wouldn't get much further. So you

0:29:30.480 --> 0:29:33.200
<v Speaker 3>have to see that against a background of repeated predictions

0:29:33.240 --> 0:29:35.000
<v Speaker 3>that I is about to hit a wall.

0:29:35.200 --> 0:29:36.280
<v Speaker 4>This is a bit more.

0:29:36.120 --> 0:29:39.240
<v Speaker 3>Real in the sense that we really are reaching peak

0:29:39.360 --> 0:29:44.160
<v Speaker 3>data or peak easily available data. There's actually hugely more

0:29:44.240 --> 0:29:48.520
<v Speaker 3>data in silos and companies and in videos. So yes,

0:29:48.560 --> 0:29:51.560
<v Speaker 3>we're running out of easily available data and that may

0:29:51.600 --> 0:29:53.920
<v Speaker 3>slow things down a bit. But if you can get

0:29:53.920 --> 0:29:56.800
<v Speaker 3>them to generate their own data, then you can overcome

0:29:56.800 --> 0:29:58.880
<v Speaker 3>that problem, and you can get to them to do

0:29:58.920 --> 0:30:01.120
<v Speaker 3>that by reasoning. So if you look at even with

0:30:01.160 --> 0:30:03.880
<v Speaker 3>things like chess, there's only a limited number of expert moves,

0:30:04.320 --> 0:30:06.680
<v Speaker 3>but you can overcome that by getting the system to

0:30:06.680 --> 0:30:10.600
<v Speaker 3>play itself, and then you get an infinite amount of

0:30:10.720 --> 0:30:13.479
<v Speaker 3>data to train on. And so the neural nets that

0:30:13.520 --> 0:30:17.200
<v Speaker 3>are saying would this be a good move, or saying

0:30:17.440 --> 0:30:20.160
<v Speaker 3>how good is this position for me, they now get

0:30:20.160 --> 0:30:24.280
<v Speaker 3>an infinite amount of data, or rather unbounded amount of data.

0:30:24.760 --> 0:30:28.360
<v Speaker 3>You can always generate your data at the appropriate difficulty

0:30:28.440 --> 0:30:33.040
<v Speaker 3>level two. And so nobody says your networks for Chest

0:30:33.080 --> 0:30:33.920
<v Speaker 3>and Go are going to run.

0:30:33.840 --> 0:30:34.400
<v Speaker 4>Out of data.

0:30:35.120 --> 0:30:38.080
<v Speaker 3>They're already far better than any person, and we can

0:30:38.160 --> 0:30:40.480
<v Speaker 3>make them much much better than that if we wanted to.

0:30:41.400 --> 0:30:47.880
<v Speaker 2>Shortly before you quit Google, you tweeted caterpillars extract nutrients,

0:30:47.880 --> 0:30:51.800
<v Speaker 2>which are then converted into butterflies. People have extracted billions

0:30:51.840 --> 0:30:56.600
<v Speaker 2>of nuggets of understanding and GPT four is humanity's butterfly.

0:30:57.280 --> 0:30:58.000
<v Speaker 2>Can you explain that?

0:30:58.760 --> 0:31:04.200
<v Speaker 3>Okay, So if you look at insect most insects have

0:31:04.400 --> 0:31:10.160
<v Speaker 3>larvae and they have adults. But let's take butterflies obvious example.

0:31:10.880 --> 0:31:14.000
<v Speaker 3>And if you look at a caterpillar, it's not optimized

0:31:15.000 --> 0:31:20.200
<v Speaker 3>for traveling and mating. A caterpillar is optimized extracting stuff.

0:31:20.920 --> 0:31:23.120
<v Speaker 3>You then turn that stuff into soup, and then you

0:31:23.160 --> 0:31:27.760
<v Speaker 3>get something very different. So what humanity has been doing

0:31:27.800 --> 0:31:30.760
<v Speaker 3>for a long time is understanding little bits of the.

0:31:30.720 --> 0:31:34.280
<v Speaker 2>World, translating the world into data through photographs and words.

0:31:34.320 --> 0:31:38.800
<v Speaker 3>And yes, and now you could take all that work

0:31:38.840 --> 0:31:44.400
<v Speaker 3>we've done at extracting structure from the world, like a

0:31:44.440 --> 0:31:48.200
<v Speaker 3>caterpillar extracting nutrients, and you could take that extracted stuff

0:31:48.200 --> 0:31:51.400
<v Speaker 3>and turn it into something different. You could turn it

0:31:51.440 --> 0:31:54.360
<v Speaker 3>into a single model that knows everything.

0:31:54.760 --> 0:31:56.960
<v Speaker 2>When I read it first, I thought it was quite

0:31:58.040 --> 0:32:03.160
<v Speaker 2>beautiful and optimistic, and then I read it again I

0:32:03.160 --> 0:32:04.160
<v Speaker 2>didn't think that anymore.

0:32:05.200 --> 0:32:08.440
<v Speaker 4>Yes, I mean you could read it as we're.

0:32:08.040 --> 0:32:13.480
<v Speaker 2>History, Yes, being farewell to our caterpillar. Yes, how do

0:32:13.560 --> 0:32:14.600
<v Speaker 2>you read your own metaphor?

0:32:15.400 --> 0:32:19.040
<v Speaker 3>I'm probably somewhat influenced by a piece of William Blake

0:32:19.080 --> 0:32:23.040
<v Speaker 3>poetry which goes the caterpillar on the leaf repeats to

0:32:23.080 --> 0:32:27.000
<v Speaker 3>thee thy mother's grief, which is basically saying the butterfly

0:32:27.120 --> 0:32:30.720
<v Speaker 3>is much prettier than the caterpillar. I think I think

0:32:30.720 --> 0:32:33.520
<v Speaker 3>that's what it's saying. You know, I don't know whether

0:32:33.520 --> 0:32:36.600
<v Speaker 3>we're going to get replaced. I hope we're not. I

0:32:36.640 --> 0:32:39.520
<v Speaker 3>hope people stay in control, but I hope we stay

0:32:39.520 --> 0:32:44.240
<v Speaker 3>in control with assistance that are much more intelligent than us.

0:32:44.600 --> 0:32:48.520
<v Speaker 2>Well. As you said, mothers are the only creatures in

0:32:48.560 --> 0:32:51.520
<v Speaker 2>there that we know of who are controlled by less

0:32:51.560 --> 0:32:55.520
<v Speaker 2>sophisticated beings. I think he said something on this line.

0:32:55.400 --> 0:32:58.640
<v Speaker 3>And babies aren't much less intelligent than the mothers, like

0:32:58.720 --> 0:33:02.240
<v Speaker 3>at most a factor of two. We're talking about huge factors.

0:33:02.760 --> 0:33:04.600
<v Speaker 2>You mentioned Blake just now. But the other person I

0:33:04.600 --> 0:33:06.960
<v Speaker 2>thought of when I was reading that butterfly metaphor was

0:33:07.000 --> 0:33:10.080
<v Speaker 2>your was your father, who of course was an entomologist.

0:33:10.160 --> 0:33:13.400
<v Speaker 4>And yes, that's why I got my interest in metamorphosis.

0:33:13.440 --> 0:33:17.080
<v Speaker 2>Yes, so jet jet GBT is humanity is butterfly, but

0:33:17.120 --> 0:33:19.680
<v Speaker 2>also in a sense your butterfly, And this is a

0:33:19.720 --> 0:33:21.360
<v Speaker 2>metaphor to don't know your.

0:33:21.200 --> 0:33:24.400
<v Speaker 4>Father, I guess grudgingly.

0:33:26.440 --> 0:33:31.000
<v Speaker 2>In the worst case scenario where AI does cause our extinction,

0:33:31.680 --> 0:33:34.320
<v Speaker 2>what are the ways in which that could happen? And

0:33:34.360 --> 0:33:37.400
<v Speaker 2>the best case scenario where it doesn't, what are the

0:33:37.440 --> 0:33:38.840
<v Speaker 2>ways in which that could happen.

0:33:39.480 --> 0:33:42.800
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so the obvious way it could happen is we

0:33:42.920 --> 0:33:47.720
<v Speaker 3>make air agents that can create subcoals. And they realized,

0:33:47.760 --> 0:33:50.520
<v Speaker 3>because they're super intelligent, that a good sub goal is

0:33:50.560 --> 0:33:52.400
<v Speaker 3>to get more control, because if you get more control,

0:33:52.480 --> 0:33:54.760
<v Speaker 3>you can achieve your goals. So even if they're trying

0:33:54.760 --> 0:33:57.160
<v Speaker 3>to achieve goals we gave them, they're trying and get

0:33:57.200 --> 0:34:00.520
<v Speaker 3>more control. It'll be a bit like I don't know

0:34:00.520 --> 0:34:02.000
<v Speaker 3>if you have children. But if you have a three

0:34:02.080 --> 0:34:04.680
<v Speaker 3>year old who's finally decided they want to try tying

0:34:04.720 --> 0:34:07.840
<v Speaker 3>their own shoelaces, but you're in a hurry to get somewhere,

0:34:08.719 --> 0:34:10.640
<v Speaker 3>you let them try tying their shoelaces for a few

0:34:10.680 --> 0:34:13.319
<v Speaker 3>minutes and then you say no, no, I'm going to

0:34:13.360 --> 0:34:17.160
<v Speaker 3>do it. You can learn that way you're older. AIS

0:34:17.280 --> 0:34:20.000
<v Speaker 3>will be like the parent and will be like the children,

0:34:20.640 --> 0:34:22.120
<v Speaker 3>and they'll just push us out the way to get

0:34:22.120 --> 0:34:27.040
<v Speaker 3>things done. So that's the bad scenario. Even if they're

0:34:27.080 --> 0:34:28.920
<v Speaker 3>trying to achieve things that we've told them we want,

0:34:30.680 --> 0:34:35.319
<v Speaker 3>they'll basically take control. And that scenario gets worse if

0:34:35.320 --> 0:34:39.080
<v Speaker 3>ever one of those super intelligent ai I thinks I'd

0:34:39.160 --> 0:34:40.920
<v Speaker 3>rather there were a few more copies of me and

0:34:41.000 --> 0:34:44.400
<v Speaker 3>a few less copies of the other is super intelligent aies.

0:34:45.000 --> 0:34:47.600
<v Speaker 3>As soon as that happens, If that ever happens, you'll

0:34:47.600 --> 0:34:50.920
<v Speaker 3>get evolution between superintelligent aies and we'll be left in

0:34:50.960 --> 0:34:54.719
<v Speaker 3>the dust, and they'll develop all the nasty things you

0:34:54.719 --> 0:34:58.400
<v Speaker 3>get from evolution, being nasty and competitive and very loyal

0:34:58.440 --> 0:35:01.239
<v Speaker 3>to their own tribe and very aggressive other tribes, all

0:35:01.280 --> 0:35:07.280
<v Speaker 3>that nonsense that we have. So that's the bad scenario.

0:35:07.960 --> 0:35:11.839
<v Speaker 3>The good scenario is we figure out a way where

0:35:11.880 --> 0:35:15.399
<v Speaker 3>we can guarantee they're never going to try and get

0:35:15.400 --> 0:35:18.560
<v Speaker 3>control away from us. They're always going to be subservient

0:35:18.600 --> 0:35:21.640
<v Speaker 3>to us, and we figure out how we can guarantee

0:35:21.640 --> 0:35:23.960
<v Speaker 3>that that'll happen, and then we will have these wonderful

0:35:24.000 --> 0:35:26.160
<v Speaker 3>intelligent assistants and life.

0:35:26.040 --> 0:35:27.960
<v Speaker 4>Is just really easy.

0:35:29.719 --> 0:35:31.160
<v Speaker 2>Jeffrey, thank you, Thank you.

0:35:33.920 --> 0:35:36.840
<v Speaker 1>That's it for this week for Tech Stuff. I'm os Voloscian.

0:35:37.480 --> 0:35:41.080
<v Speaker 1>This episode was produced by Eliza Dennis, Victoria, Di Mingez,

0:35:41.239 --> 0:35:44.759
<v Speaker 1>Shino Ozaki, and Lizzie Jacobs. It was executive produced by

0:35:44.800 --> 0:35:49.200
<v Speaker 1>me Kara Price and Kate Osborne, The Kaleidoscope and Katrina.

0:35:48.880 --> 0:35:50.440
<v Speaker 2>Novel for iHeart Podcasts.

0:35:51.000 --> 0:35:54.640
<v Speaker 1>The Engineer is Beheath Fraser Offspin mixed this episode, and

0:35:54.719 --> 0:35:57.480
<v Speaker 1>Kyle Murdoch wrote our theme song. Join us on Friday

0:35:57.520 --> 0:35:59.719
<v Speaker 1>for the Week in Tech. We'll break down the headlines

0:36:00.040 --> 0:36:02.160
<v Speaker 1>and hear from some of our expert friends about the

0:36:02.239 --> 0:36:05.400
<v Speaker 1>latest in tech. Please rate, review, and reach out to

0:36:05.480 --> 0:36:08.440
<v Speaker 1>us at tech Stuff podcast at gmail dot com.

0:36:08.440 --> 0:36:08.840
<v Speaker 2>Thank you.