1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:11,680 Speaker 1: This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up 2 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 1: straight Fire? Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Thursday, 3 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: January six. Then we had a night in the n 4 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: b A. I'm trying to get excited, folks. I'm trying 5 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 1: really hard to get pumped up about the NBA. Uh. 6 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: And we'll get to Kyrie Irving's return to the court. 7 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: I know some people are stoked. Other people are rolling 8 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:35,520 Speaker 1: their eyes. We had an Antonio Brown development late late 9 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:38,960 Speaker 1: last night, and um, probably bigger than both of those 10 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: is today's guest. I know you guys are getting excited 11 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 1: to handicap and gamble on the NFL playoffs. We k 12 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 1: a team really tough sell only like three or four 13 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:51,279 Speaker 1: games matter, and I thought we'd bring a guest who 14 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: could make sense of what the hell to expect in 15 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: the playoffs. Um, you know him. Aaron Schatz runs Football Outsiders, 16 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: super smart guy, very into the numbers. I know some 17 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: of you are gonna be like, oh, the numbers. I 18 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 1: don't want to hear it. I want to hear it. Takes. 19 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 1: We do both takes and gambling, and numbers matter. If 20 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 1: you're not playing the numbers, you're you're really hurting this 21 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 1: year because what Chatz is about to say, and and folks, 22 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 1: I don't want I'm not trying to make any of 23 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 1: his opinions super incendiary, but he's saying, without question, the 24 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans, assuming they get the one seed, and they're 25 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: likely to, they're gonna be the worst number one seed 26 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:31,759 Speaker 1: ever according to the dvo A numbers from Football Outsiders, 27 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: worst number one seed ever ever, and they get a 28 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 1: bye week. Now, a lot of it has to do 29 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 1: with the health. Remember A J. Brown, Julio Jones, Derrick Henry. 30 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 1: That stuff matters. So, um, I know Titans fans are 31 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: gonna be pissed, and I get it. I understand it. 32 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: We also try to make sense of the Bengals. There's 33 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 1: some interesting noise in their incredible numbers. I try to 34 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 1: sell Aaron on the Rams. He is buying the Cowboys. Yes, 35 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys fans get excited, So you guys are gonna 36 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 1: like that. But first I thought we'd open with Kyrie 37 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 1: Irving just briefly. Um, and you know it's funny. So 38 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: I turned on the game. I start watching Kyrie go 39 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: against the Pacers, and I'm like, wait a minute, who 40 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 1: are these Pacers guards. You know, I'm a fan a 41 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 1: little bit of the Pacers. My old neighbor is like 42 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 1: a big time Pacers fan, so I occasionally check out 43 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 1: what's going on with Indie. I'm I've always been a 44 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:23,239 Speaker 1: Sabonus guy bit dating back to his Gonzaga days. He 45 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 1: had a trip dub. I think Miles Turner is a 46 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 1: little overrated. Some people in the something like Warriors fans like, 47 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 1: we need Miles Turner to protect the rim. Anyways, I 48 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:33,959 Speaker 1: looked at the Pacers starting backcourt before I get to 49 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: Kyrie Irving. It is two rookies. One Dwayne Washington from 50 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 1: Ohio State. Ohio State Buckeyes fans will remember how bad 51 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: he was in their n c A Tournament loss. He 52 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 1: was awful. That was the last time I started Dwayne Washington. 53 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:49,640 Speaker 1: He's out starting for the Indiana Pacers. He was not 54 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: drafted his backcourt mate in Indie. Again, this is going 55 00:02:54,360 --> 00:03:02,079 Speaker 1: against James Harden, Kyrie Irving, and somebody named David Duke Jr. 56 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: From Providence, a rookie. Again. Covid still hit in the NBA. 57 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 1: That's why I haven't gambled on it in like three weeks. Anyways, 58 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 1: the Pacers starting backcourts rookie Dwayne Washington out of Ohio 59 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 1: State and a guy named Keefer Sikes, a rookie from 60 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 1: Green Bay who is twenty eight years old. He's a 61 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 1: twenty eight year old rookie. I'm gonna let that sink 62 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 1: in and then I will tell you guys the fascinating 63 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,520 Speaker 1: news that Kyrie Irving had twenty two points in his return. 64 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: The Nets storm back from a double digit deficit, dominate 65 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter and win in Indy. I mean, like, 66 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 1: what else is there to say? I know, I get it. 67 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: You know, the hoop heads are stoked Kyrie back. Kyrie's back, 68 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 1: I'll get excited, Like, Okay, I get it. He's dynamic, 69 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: he's fun to watch. He's got one of the best 70 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: handles in the league. Um again, some of the off 71 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: court stuff has dampened if you listen to yesterday's pot 72 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: has dampened my enthusiasm towards Kyrie. The guy's twenty nine. 73 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 1: He's gonna be turning thirty here in a little bit. 74 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 1: I still have yet to see him win without Lebron. 75 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 1: We'll see, Uh. If you don't win this year with 76 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: the Nets at the problem I saw a stat that 77 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 1: since he signed with Brooklyn, I guess he's been the 78 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: teams played like a hundred games and he's played less 79 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: than half of those because of the injuries. It stinks 80 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 1: because you know, it's robbing. The NBA have a big 81 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: time talent, but you know they you know, I follow 82 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:24,119 Speaker 1: some NBA accounts on Instagram and I see these guys 83 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: like trying to hype up was Kyrie the third best 84 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:28,919 Speaker 1: point guard in NBA history? And I'm just like, what 85 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 1: on earth is this? Like what maybe the third best 86 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: in the history of the Calves. I don't know, like 87 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 1: Mark Price again, I don't I'm just joking around. Anyways, 88 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 1: Kyrie I rings back. Congratulations to Kyrie and all the 89 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 1: NETS fans out there, all those long suffering NETS fans. 90 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 1: You know you got Kyrie back. Great. Um. Elsewhere in sports, 91 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: Antonio Brown's lawyer dropped a bit of a bombshell on 92 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 1: Wednesday night lengthy. Of course, you know how it's done 93 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,279 Speaker 1: on social media. They put it in the notes pat 94 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 1: notes section and basically send it out. Um. So, Antonio 95 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: Brown's lawyer is making the claim that Antonio Brown is 96 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 1: committed and he was all in, and then all of 97 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 1: a sudden, he was injured on the sideline, and despite 98 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:19,039 Speaker 1: the pain, I let me just to make sure I 99 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:22,280 Speaker 1: read this correctly, I suited up. The staff injected me 100 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 1: with what I now know was a powerful and sometimes 101 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 1: dangerous pain killer the NFL p A has warned against using. 102 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:31,480 Speaker 1: I mean, really, is this what you want to do, 103 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:35,280 Speaker 1: Antonio Brown? A dangerous pain killer? I'm sure you were 104 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 1: just saying no, I don't want I don't want that anyways. 105 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 1: So Antonio Brown says, his ankles and extreme pain, he 106 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 1: took a seat on the sideline. His coach says, what's 107 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 1: wrong with you? What's wrong with you? I told him 108 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 1: it's my ankle, but he knew that it was well documented. 109 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 1: We had discussed it. Then he ordered me to get 110 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 1: on the field. I said, Coach, I can't. He didn't 111 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: call for medical attention. Instead, he shouted at me, you're done, 112 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 1: while he ran his finger across his throat. Bruce a 113 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: Ian's doing the throat slit to Antonio Brown while the 114 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: Bucks are losing. Surely there's got to be video of 115 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 1: the throat slit. Coach was telling me, if I don't 116 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 1: play hurt, I was done with the Bucks. I didn't quit, 117 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 1: I was cut. I didn't walk away from my brothers. 118 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 1: I was thrown out. Okay, So I'm sure some of 119 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:21,719 Speaker 1: you guys are laughing. Trust me. When I read this, 120 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 1: I was like, oh my gosh, give me a break, um. 121 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:26,679 Speaker 1: Before I make my state, I want to remind you guys, 122 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 1: remember his ending with the Raiders. Okay, remember his ending 123 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 1: with the Patriots. Remember his ending with Mike Tomlin. Okay, 124 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 1: Scorpion and the frog, guys, longtime listeners of my radio 125 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 1: show and the podcast. No, the scorpion and the frog? 126 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 1: Do I need to retell it? Should I? So the 127 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: scorpions trying across the river can't get across. He sees 128 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 1: a frog. He says, hey, man, can I get a 129 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 1: ride across the river? And the frogs like, hell no, 130 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: You're gonna sting me and I'll die. Scorpions like why 131 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 1: would I do that? If I sting you will both 132 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:05,239 Speaker 1: sink and die. And the frogs like, oh wow, alright fine. 133 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: So frog gives a scorpion across a right across the river. 134 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 1: Halfway through, pink scorpion stings him. Frogs like, ah, what 135 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 1: the hell are you doing? Dude? What'd you do? That 136 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: I'm a scorpion. This is what I do, and they 137 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: both go down and die. Antonio Brown is a scorpion. 138 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: Are we surprised this is what he does? Are we 139 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: really to believe that Antonio Brown was told you're done, throat, slit, 140 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 1: get at, you don't want to go in the field. Fine, 141 00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: And so Antonio Brown, who we see in the videos 142 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: arguing with Mike Evans, I can't calm down, and then 143 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 1: like a petulant child, takes off his stuff, throws it 144 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: to the fans, and then walks away like celebrating. His 145 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: ankle looked fine as he was skipping through the end zone. Like, again, 146 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: this is not like a twenty three year old dude 147 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 1: who is just young and dumb and an idiot. And 148 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: I was young and dumb and stupid at w three. 149 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 1: Trust me, my friends who are listening, No this, we 150 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 1: were all young and dumb and stupid. Anybody who says 151 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 1: they were, you know, a beacon of light and really 152 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 1: smart and made only great decisions at twenty three, you're Lyne, Like, 153 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: I don't know if you're Lyne too, But at twenty three, 154 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 1: everybody did dumb things. I did dumb things. So I 155 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: was like twenty seven. Maybe then I met the wife. 156 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: He clean up my act. I knew I had to 157 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 1: kind of tighten up the ship. Um. Anyways, Antony Brown 158 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 1: is a grown ass man, and his reaction to you're done, 159 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 1: instead of like calling the trainer or anything, is let 160 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: me just disrobe on the sideline and peace out and 161 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 1: then celebrate by pointing to the fans. He did not 162 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: look pissed, and I know, like that's what he's doing. 163 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 1: He's putting a brave face on it and flexing and 164 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: gesturing like okay. Um. There was a great Seinfeld clip 165 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: that I uh, someone I think it was my brother 166 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 1: sent it to me, or maybe a buddy of mine 167 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 1: who moved to South Carolina, um sent it to me. 168 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: Of they were basically saying, here's Antonio Brown talking to 169 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:06,079 Speaker 1: his agent, and it was Jerry Seinfeld and George Costanza 170 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 1: going over the time where George quit. I think it 171 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 1: was the time George quit in the office. He's like, 172 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 1: what do I do? And Jerry's like, you know what, 173 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:16,960 Speaker 1: why don't you just go back like it never happened? 174 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: Just show up. I'm an emotional guy, and you know 175 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:23,839 Speaker 1: it's really funny. It's like forty seconds and it's it's 176 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 1: a classic Seinfeld thing. Um And and I thought about it. 177 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 1: I was like, you could Antonio Brown just show up 178 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 1: like hey, sorry, you know whatever. I mean, he's not 179 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:36,200 Speaker 1: going to apologize, we know that, but he just act 180 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 1: like nothing happened. It's been like, oh wow, you know, anyways, 181 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 1: so what do we got today? You know, just show 182 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:43,719 Speaker 1: up and brush it off. And like I clearly were 183 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 1: past the point of that. Somebody told me something interesting. Um, 184 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 1: he's connected to a team in the NFC. He said. 185 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: The reason the Bucks have been reluctant to drop Brown 186 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: is because Michael Gallup went down for the Cowboys. And 187 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 1: yes they have Cedric Wilson. But would you be shocked 188 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 1: if Dallas Jerry Jones loves big names, loves flashy objects. 189 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 1: If Jerry Jones would out and said, okay, Antonio browns 190 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 1: with the market, I'll take him. I personally think there's 191 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 1: no shot in hell none that Jerry Jones would do that. 192 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 1: But what about the Kansas City chiefs Andy Reid loves 193 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 1: a good reclamation project. Remember they went out and got 194 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: Josh Gordon. I don't even know if he's still on 195 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 1: the team. I mean, I think he had a touchdown 196 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 1: a few weeks ago. I haven't seen anything since. Um, 197 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 1: no shot Bill Belichick's doing. And I can't see the 198 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. Remember when they tried to sign him and 199 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: he was like, hell no, I'm not going to Buffalo. 200 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 1: Remember that. Um, Bengals don't need him. I guess the 201 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 1: Titans could, but he seems a little bit too much 202 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: for the Tennessee locker room. Rabel. I don't think he's 203 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 1: putting up with that headache. Um no shot, A rookie 204 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 1: Cook could coach of the Eagles has taken him. Um. 205 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 1: I can't see the Packers doing it now. I mean, 206 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 1: why do you mess with a good thing? Um? Yeah, 207 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 1: so Rams did lose, uh Robert Woods, but they got O'Dell. 208 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 1: You can't have O'Dell And Antonio Brown is no way, 209 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,319 Speaker 1: no shot of that. So I mean, personally, I don't 210 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 1: think anyone touches him. But he claims he's injured. So anyways, 211 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 1: we've gone along long enough. Antonio Brown, look Kyrie Irving 212 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:23,839 Speaker 1: and now let's get to our guest, Aaron Chatz, a 213 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 1: football outsiders. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk 214 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 1: lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows at 215 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,840 Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio dot com and within the I Heart 216 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 1: Radio app search f s R to listen live. Jason 217 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:43,680 Speaker 1: likes to think he knows everything when it comes to sports. 218 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: I know what sports dance want, but for everything he doesn't. 219 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 1: He knows a guy who does. Let's just say I 220 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:54,320 Speaker 1: know a guy who knows a guy he knows another guy. 221 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 1: All right, let's welcome into straight fire. He's a He's 222 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 1: a regular at this point. We've had him on multiple times. 223 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 1: Every time. He's bringing the noise and the funk. Right now, 224 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans fans can't stand him. Aaron chats football outsiders. 225 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:09,679 Speaker 1: How are you man? Hey, I'm good New year stuff. Yes, 226 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,839 Speaker 1: indeed yes, Tennessee Titans fans I see them on social 227 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 1: media just attacking you. Um and listen. We'll get to 228 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 1: the NFL playoffs and all that fun stuff. But I 229 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 1: just want to ask you know, this is something I 230 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 1: tried to talk about the last couple of weeks. Um, 231 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 1: it's a long season. Right where Week eighteen, a couple 232 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 1: of teams still can get in the playoffs, And I 233 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 1: just curious, how do you weigh early season priors to 234 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 1: September matter as much as say, what's happened lately? Because 235 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 1: you've got the Cincinnati Bengals, Johnny come lately, too impressive wins, 236 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 1: Joe Burrow off the charts, and all of a sudden, everybody, 237 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 1: oh Bengals, could they win it? And meanwhile the Rams 238 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: and Matt Stafford, you know, Stafford struggling, but but they 239 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 1: were preseason odds like we're up there to win the 240 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 1: Super Bowl. I still kind of like him, Aaron, how 241 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 1: do you weigh early season verse late season as we 242 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 1: had to the playoffs? Well, we do have, you know, 243 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 1: the d v O A metric that we use at 244 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:06,559 Speaker 1: football Outsiders. I do have a version called waited d 245 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:10,080 Speaker 1: v O A. That what it does is that as 246 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 1: we you go a certain number of weeks into the past, 247 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:15,600 Speaker 1: it drops the weight of games until by the time 248 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 1: you get to early September, the games don't count anymore. 249 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 1: And that version is a little bit more predictive, just 250 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: a little bit slide amount more predictive then the total 251 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: season rating. So I do tend to look at teams 252 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:35,560 Speaker 1: through both the vision, you know, both the vision of 253 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 1: the way to d v O A and the vision 254 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: of the full season dv O way. But there's no 255 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 1: question that, like, for example, the Green Bay Packers had 256 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 1: that huge loss to the Saints in Week one, it 257 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 1: really doesn't look like that matters at all anymore because 258 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 1: they haven't played like that since then. Maybe interesting, every 259 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 1: single game since then has been a good game by 260 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 1: our numbers, even the games they lost. So essentially, everybody's 261 00:13:57,559 --> 00:14:00,680 Speaker 1: welcome to a clunker, right Green Bay Packers, there's early 262 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 1: got it out of the way. And then you know, 263 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:05,199 Speaker 1: other than the Jordan Love game against the Chiefs, you 264 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 1: know they've pretty much been very, very good, even that 265 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 1: lost your right to the vikings. So are they still 266 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 1: in all your metrics the universal favorites to win the 267 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 1: Super Bowl? They're the favorites to win the Super Bowl 268 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 1: because of the fact that they're the number one seed 269 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: and they're good. They're not our number one team. They 270 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: have all those wins, but they are currently fourth in 271 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 1: the way to rating, and when you add that to 272 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: the fact that they're the number one seed, that makes 273 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 1: them the super Bowl favorite. Got it? So right now, 274 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 1: you're number one team in d v O A I 275 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 1: believe is the Dallas Cowboys. For the full season. It's 276 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: the Cowboys. So now a lot of Patriots. Oh guy, 277 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:45,960 Speaker 1: I can't I can't go there. I know you're a 278 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 1: New England guy, but I need to drill down on 279 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: the Cowboys for a second. So I really like them 280 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 1: a lot. And then you know, they look pretty ordinary 281 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 1: against Arizona. And that's when when that you and you 282 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 1: have this random loss where you're like losing his six 283 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 1: point home favorites, you start looking and you're like, wait 284 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 1: a second, when was the last time they beat a 285 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 1: good team? And then you look at the NFC East 286 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: and it's like not very good, And all of a sudden, 287 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 1: it's oh, Dallas is crushing bad teams, and oh my goodness, 288 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 1: they really haven't beaten anybody good in a while. How 289 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: how do you explain that versus what your what's your 290 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 1: numbers tell you? Here's the thing. Historically, the best indicator 291 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: of a championship team is that they destroy bad opponents. 292 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 1: That is a better indicator of a championship team than 293 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 1: having a close win against a good opponent. I think 294 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: that the question of whether you've beaten good teams is 295 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 1: a little overrated. Obviously, the best win is when you 296 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 1: have a big win against a good opponent. For instance, 297 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 1: the cult crushing the Bills, yes, okay, or the Patriots 298 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 1: for that matter, Both of those are really good results, 299 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 1: um but for but the fact is big dominant wins 300 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 1: over a team like Washington are a really good indicator 301 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 1: of a championship team. So I happen to think that 302 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 1: Dallas is a little bit undervalue. I think. But Edward, 303 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 1: let me ask, like, in the playoffs, you're only playing 304 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 1: good teams. There's not gonna be any below five teams 305 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 1: in the playoffs, So what does it matter if you 306 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 1: kill bad teams if there's no bad teams in the postseason, 307 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 1: Because killing bad teams is a indicator of the that 308 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 1: in the future you will play well against good teams. 309 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 1: There there isn't really this dichotomy for the most part 310 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 1: between how you play against good teams and how you 311 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: play against bad teams. In general, every team in the 312 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: NFL is better against bad teams than they are against 313 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 1: good teams. Like that's kind of how it works. And 314 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 1: so it's not it's not like having those close wins 315 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 1: against good teams, like you know, is an indicator that 316 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 1: you're going to be really good in the future. It's 317 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 1: usually you know, it's a I mean you'd rather be 318 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 1: good teams than lose to them. But the fact is 319 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,160 Speaker 1: it's those those big dominating wins over bad teams are 320 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 1: indicators that you will play better in the future. Okay, 321 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna look at the Buffalo Bills, who I 322 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:21,359 Speaker 1: believe are every every game they've won is by double digits. 323 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 1: But they got destroyed by the Colts. And then in 324 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,440 Speaker 1: the other five games all close games, one score games there, 325 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:29,239 Speaker 1: oh and five. What on earth are we to make 326 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: of the Buffalo Bills? I mean, did they kill the 327 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:35,160 Speaker 1: good they killed the bad teams, and then they basically 328 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: have really struggled against everyone else and they haven't see 329 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 1: the thing is that they haven't killed the bad teams. 330 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 1: Right that Jacksonville nine, Okay, remulving jackson it really stands 331 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:49,639 Speaker 1: out well, alright, five five, that stands out. But I 332 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 1: mean they beat Washington by twenty, Houston by forty. Uh, 333 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 1: Miami inconsistent this year. But the whole resonate together, they're 334 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 1: one of the top teams in the league. When you 335 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 1: put the whole resume together, they're the top team in 336 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:07,919 Speaker 1: the a f C, no question about, no question. I 337 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 1: think at this point they're the top team in the FC. 338 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: If you put the whole resume together from this year, 339 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 1: if you consider, like, well, we know that Mahomes has 340 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 1: been an m v P in the past, and like 341 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 1: you know, all this expectation of what Kansas City's potential is, 342 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,119 Speaker 1: then I understand why Kansas City is favored in vague. 343 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 1: But if you just look at the resume of what 344 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 1: teams did in Buffalo is the top team and and 345 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,439 Speaker 1: is there a singular number, be it uh you know, 346 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:44,880 Speaker 1: um margin of victory, uh, point differential, net yards per play? 347 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 1: Any of those jump out because I mentioned net yards 348 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 1: per play because I want to get to that they 349 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,360 Speaker 1: are number one in the league in net yards per play. 350 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 1: If look, you don't need my fancy stats, if you 351 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 1: want to look at my if you want to look 352 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:59,919 Speaker 1: at my fancy stats for the season, right, not waited 353 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,679 Speaker 1: to recent games, but for the season, Buffalo is the 354 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 1: top team in the a f C. But let's look 355 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:09,120 Speaker 1: just at the not fancy stat of point differential, which 356 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,080 Speaker 1: is usually a very strong indicator of how good teams are. 357 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 1: Buffalo is the number one team in the league in 358 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 1: point differential, period. And so you know, I know a 359 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: lot of people are gonna start gambling here right after 360 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 1: Week A teen. Who can I bet on to make 361 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,640 Speaker 1: a Super Bowl run? You know what wild card team? 362 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 1: Blah blah blah. And is there a number for you 363 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,440 Speaker 1: that stands out above all arin be it U point 364 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 1: differential net yards for play d v O A way 365 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: to DVO Is there one that you personally value a 366 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 1: little more? I mean I would look at d v 367 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 1: O A and waited dv O A and that's you know, 368 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,360 Speaker 1: that's why I feel like Dallas. If you look at 369 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 1: the odds, I feel like Dallas is that's where that's 370 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: the team where there's value that's still a realistic chance. 371 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 1: You know, I can talk about the value of the 372 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:02,520 Speaker 1: San Francisco forty niners, but it's a superlog shot long. 373 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 1: You know, hey, there's a little bit of value in 374 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:06,919 Speaker 1: a super log shot, right. But I mean if teams 375 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,879 Speaker 1: like that are gonna you know, top four seeds, right like, 376 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 1: I feel like that's where the value because their number 377 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 1: one in our ratings for the whole year and number 378 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,919 Speaker 1: two in the weighted ratings that give them recent And 379 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,919 Speaker 1: what I like about weighted is that it is the 380 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 1: balance of recent games matter more. I need to ask 381 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 1: about the Rams who play in my backyard. Matt Stafford 382 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,159 Speaker 1: has been pretty bad lately, but they've won in spite 383 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 1: of him. Uh. Way to d v o A, looks 384 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:37,199 Speaker 1: like the Rams are eight. They are second in net 385 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 1: yards per play, right behind the Bills. I have this 386 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 1: sneaky feeling that they're going to be able to put 387 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 1: it together in the postseason. What do you make of this, 388 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 1: This them winning in spite of Stafford really vomiting all 389 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:54,680 Speaker 1: over himself. Yeah, I think that. Um, you know, all 390 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 1: of the belief early in the season that Stafford was 391 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 1: this colossal step forward over are at golf. We said 392 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: in the preseason we didn't think the difference between them 393 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 1: was quite as big as people thought it was. And 394 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 1: I think people have come around that have kind of 395 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 1: come back around to that idea, only they've come back 396 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:17,080 Speaker 1: around to that idea in the negative way instead of well, 397 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: maybe golf's not as bad as we think it's turned into, 398 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:23,439 Speaker 1: or maybe Stafford's not as god. But the fact is 399 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:27,399 Speaker 1: this is still a very well rounded team. So the 400 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 1: thing about the Rams is that they do everything well. Like, yes, 401 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 1: sometimes Stafford vomits all over himself, but for the most part, 402 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:38,120 Speaker 1: that's a strong passing attack, strong rushing attack, strong pass defense, 403 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: strong run defense. Top ten special teams. So if one 404 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 1: element of their game falters, the other four elements are 405 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 1: there to pick it up. So that I think is 406 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 1: a positive for the Rams. You mentioned special teams. Just 407 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 1: to point out everybody, green Bay, I think it's been 408 00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 1: most of the season dead last football outside er special teams. 409 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: Their kicker stinksy, misses a ton. I think they've given 410 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,160 Speaker 1: up two or three returns for touchdowns. Um, all around, 411 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:08,160 Speaker 1: their special teams are awful. How much do you weigh 412 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 1: that in? Like, hey, you know, Green Bay they are 413 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 1: gonna be playing all their games at home in the 414 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: in the crappy weather. But um, I don't know special 415 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 1: teams big big for you A little bit, it's a 416 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 1: little bit. Um. So the generic answer that I give is, 417 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:26,040 Speaker 1: in general, the quality of a football team is four 418 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 1: parts offense, three parts defense, and one part special teams. 419 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 1: But like the ratings, the ratings for special teams on 420 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 1: my site on Football outsiders dot com, they're you know, 421 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 1: calculated to fit in with the ratings for offensive defense. Right, 422 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 1: so Green Bay is plus twenty three on offense and 423 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,879 Speaker 1: minus five on special teams. So the what they lose 424 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 1: from their special teams is less than a quarter of 425 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,120 Speaker 1: what they gain from their offense. Right, Like, they're much 426 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 1: better on offense than they are battled special teams. Yeah, 427 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,399 Speaker 1: and and special teams, you know it matters, but obviously 428 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,959 Speaker 1: offense significantly more. Now you guys have Tampa Bay number 429 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,120 Speaker 1: one in offense, and again that's for the entire season. 430 00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,640 Speaker 1: Uh Antonio Brown played a lot this year. Godwin played 431 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 1: a lot this year. They're both out. People seemed down 432 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 1: on Tampa right now. The defense has kind of beat up. 433 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 1: They get a little lucky there to beat the Jets 434 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 1: than after the Jets made a horrible fourth down call, 435 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,199 Speaker 1: play call I should say, Um, I don't know, how 436 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: do you how are you to handicap the Bucks. We 437 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:30,640 Speaker 1: know what they did last year going on the road 438 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 1: for three straight, but doing that again seems like a 439 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,480 Speaker 1: bit of a stretch right well now, and now you 440 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 1: get into one of the more difficult things about doing 441 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 1: this is that I can produce all the numbers in 442 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:41,959 Speaker 1: the world, but then you have to sort of mentally 443 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 1: adjust them for the injury situation for each team. And 444 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 1: you're absolutely right about Tampa Bay which is I mean 445 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 1: there they should get defensive players back. Lavonte David should 446 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,879 Speaker 1: be back for the playoffs. The games they had to 447 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 1: play earlier in the year when they were down to 448 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 1: like cornerbacks they were grabbing off the street like most 449 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 1: of the cornerbacks are back by now. But there's no 450 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:06,680 Speaker 1: question that the wide receiver corps Godwin and Brown are 451 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 1: big guys to miss. They've been without Brown for most 452 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 1: of the year, but most of that time they had 453 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 1: Godwin like they they've They've never been without both Godwin 454 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 1: and Brown, So I do think you have to take 455 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,280 Speaker 1: a little bit off of their rating. And you know 456 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:22,440 Speaker 1: it's hard. They're not gonna have to win three games 457 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 1: on the road first game at home, but um yeah, 458 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,120 Speaker 1: it's hard to there's a reason why the number one 459 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 1: seeds are are get a little boost. I mean that 460 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 1: extra week of rest is good. And then not having 461 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:38,719 Speaker 1: to play a team in the first round, because no 462 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 1: matter how good a team you are, there is a 463 00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 1: chance you will lose in the first round unless you 464 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 1: don't play. And I didn't even mention for Net of course, 465 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,639 Speaker 1: who was huge in the playoffs last year. Uh this 466 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 1: year he's been I think he's on I R right now. Um, 467 00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:54,640 Speaker 1: I think he's expected to come on right. He will 468 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,919 Speaker 1: be back for the playoffs. Two. I think he's supposed 469 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,520 Speaker 1: to come back for the playoffs too. But again, I mean, 470 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 1: if you think about player value by position, you know 471 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 1: I certainly I'm an analytics guy who subscribes to not 472 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:11,320 Speaker 1: running backs don't matter, but running backs don't matter as 473 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,440 Speaker 1: much as other positions, so I would be much more 474 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:17,439 Speaker 1: worried about the loss of Godwin and Browns of I 475 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,159 Speaker 1: need to ask you about your Patriots. It's funny everybody 476 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,960 Speaker 1: seemed to they were they were hot, talk of the town, 477 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 1: and then they lose to the Bills at home in 478 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:27,679 Speaker 1: a game Josh Allen probably had his best game of 479 00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 1: the season, and it's you know, nobody's really talking about 480 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,440 Speaker 1: the Patriots, Uh, Aaron, I think we both know that 481 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 1: no rookie quarterback has ever really had a massive postseason run. 482 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,800 Speaker 1: Matt Jones going to be the first. I mean it's 483 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 1: a possibility, certainly. Um. I think that there's a reasonable 484 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:53,560 Speaker 1: argument that our system is is uh giving too much 485 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 1: weight to blow out Like the fact is, blowouts are 486 00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,239 Speaker 1: pretty predictive. Like blowouts are pretty predictive of being a 487 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 1: good team, But we may be giving a little too 488 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:06,399 Speaker 1: much weight because some teams shut it off layton blowouts, 489 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,760 Speaker 1: like the Chiefs. The Patriots don't like they brought it, 490 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 1: like they bring in Brian Hoyer and Hoyer goes and 491 00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,359 Speaker 1: throws for a touchdown. So like that's counting in our numbers, 492 00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:18,440 Speaker 1: and maybe that's counting a little too much. Or the 493 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 1: interceptions that the backup quarterbacks from the Atlanta Falcons through 494 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 1: to them maybe counting a little too much. So I mean, 495 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,159 Speaker 1: if you ask me subjectively, do I think the Patriots 496 00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,199 Speaker 1: are the best team right now? I mean, my numbers 497 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 1: say that right now, because of how well they've played 498 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 1: over the last eight to ten weeks, they're the best team. 499 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,640 Speaker 1: Do I really think that? No? Do. I think they're 500 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,520 Speaker 1: a little underrated by the public. A little underrated by 501 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:46,040 Speaker 1: the public. But there's no question mac Jones has specific weaknesses. 502 00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,480 Speaker 1: Certain throws that either he can't make or they don't 503 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,159 Speaker 1: trust him to make that are it's gonna make it 504 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 1: tough for them to win the three games that it 505 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,200 Speaker 1: takes to get to the super Bowl. But I would 506 00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:01,080 Speaker 1: absolutely favor them over Like, for example, I think the 507 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,679 Speaker 1: most likely first round opponent for them is the Bengal. 508 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:11,160 Speaker 1: Oh no, Zach Taylor against Belie a favor. I would 509 00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,920 Speaker 1: favor them over the Bengals. Yes, now see, that's gonna 510 00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,560 Speaker 1: be one that's gonna be super tough because, you know, Aaron, 511 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:19,439 Speaker 1: you could basically say, oh, rookie quarterback starting, you've got 512 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 1: to take the other team against the spread, and it 513 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,879 Speaker 1: it's it's hit ridiculous. I think nine of the last 514 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,880 Speaker 1: ten rookie quarterbacks have lost and not covered the spread. 515 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:31,400 Speaker 1: Something insane. But Bill Belichick against Zach Taylor is I mean, 516 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,920 Speaker 1: that's such a mismatch. I mean, you've got to think 517 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: that Belichick is going to be able to scheme something 518 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,439 Speaker 1: up where they'll pay a lot of attention to Jamaar 519 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,440 Speaker 1: Chase and they'll have the other guys covered because the 520 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,600 Speaker 1: biggest weakness of the Cincinnati Bengals is the offensive line. 521 00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,639 Speaker 1: So the Patriots can get after that offensive line with 522 00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:51,639 Speaker 1: four guys and leave the rest of the people in 523 00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 1: coverage and cover the receivers and probably double Chase. I mean, 524 00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 1: you know, Belichick smart about this stuff. And if you 525 00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,160 Speaker 1: look at how good teams have been over the course 526 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:05,560 Speaker 1: of the season, right, I mean Cincinnati is they're seventeenth 527 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,239 Speaker 1: in our numbers. Now you can argue with that, like 528 00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,680 Speaker 1: I went, I did a whole article this week where 529 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 1: I went into like why is it that we have 530 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 1: Cincinnati so low? But there are other advanced metrics that 531 00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,359 Speaker 1: have him almost as low, like ESPN f P I 532 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 1: only have Cincinnati fourteen and they have New England third. 533 00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 1: So I think there's no question, Like if you're New 534 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,520 Speaker 1: England and you don't win the division, which I mean 535 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:32,119 Speaker 1: unless the Jets rise on now not going to So 536 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:34,520 Speaker 1: like if you're New England and you get a wild card, 537 00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,200 Speaker 1: who do you want to face? Buffalo, Kansas City or Cincinnati? 538 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 1: There's no question you want you want to face Cincinnati. 539 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,720 Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in 540 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox sports 541 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 1: Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app. 542 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 1: Search f s R to listen live. So what do 543 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 1: you think it is about the Bengals? Is it that 544 00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,960 Speaker 1: you know, too humongous wins over the Ravens, they black, 545 00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:03,000 Speaker 1: you know, double digit wins over Pittsburgh um Detroit, but 546 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 1: they got blown out louder teams with bad secondaries and 547 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:10,040 Speaker 1: with a lack of depth in the secondary. Chase just 548 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:14,200 Speaker 1: took over games this year, like especially the Kansas City game. 549 00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:18,880 Speaker 1: Chase just Chase just took over, like by himself. But 550 00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 1: if the over the course of the whole season, they're 551 00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,000 Speaker 1: not one of the top teams in the NFC, Like, like, 552 00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,320 Speaker 1: could they go on a run in the playoffs? I mean, 553 00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 1: given the Chase have played the last couple of weeks, 554 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,800 Speaker 1: how can you say, no, are they likely to go 555 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 1: on that run? No, they're not likely to. Okay, So 556 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:38,720 Speaker 1: now it's time where we talk about the Tennessee Titans. 557 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 1: I know they're one of the most boring teams in 558 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,120 Speaker 1: the league, but they're also are a real tough read 559 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,920 Speaker 1: because of the Derrick Henry factor. Uh you look at 560 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 1: the point differential, they're not. Their net yards per play 561 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,840 Speaker 1: is bad? Like no, uh no, No number that I 562 00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,880 Speaker 1: can find points to Tennessee is a really good team 563 00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 1: or impressive? What am I missing here? So let's start 564 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 1: with how they've played during the regular seeds itself. The 565 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:07,240 Speaker 1: Titans will be the worst number one seed ever by 566 00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 1: t v O A and we go back to not 567 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,440 Speaker 1: only that, well, wait, hold on, hold on, let me 568 00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 1: ask like the former worst number one seed. Did it 569 00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:18,680 Speaker 1: lose in the first round? No, the former number one 570 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:22,360 Speaker 1: seed made it to the The worst number one seeds 571 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 1: before this actually lost the Super Bowl. Wow. So how 572 00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,320 Speaker 1: many of the worst like the last three worst or 573 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,720 Speaker 1: something like the last of the last twelve the twelve 574 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 1: worst number one seeds? Only two of them lost in 575 00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:38,440 Speaker 1: the first round. That bye week is important to me, okay, 576 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 1: but none of them is bad during the regular season 577 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 1: as Tennessee was. In fact, Tennessee right now would be 578 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:50,720 Speaker 1: worse than any number two seed. Ever what oh so, 579 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 1: just no respect for this team. I mean offensively, Tannehill 580 00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:57,840 Speaker 1: has what like twos. They'll probably they'll probably be better 581 00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,000 Speaker 1: because if we assume they go out and they rash Houston, 582 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 1: right like, they win big because they care and Houston doesn't. Well, no, 583 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:10,640 Speaker 1: they'll no longer be the worst of the number two seats. Right. So, 584 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 1: here's the thing about Tennessee. They have had a lot 585 00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:15,960 Speaker 1: of injuries, and any Tennessee fan will point this out 586 00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,040 Speaker 1: to you, as Tennessee fans have been pointing out to 587 00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,280 Speaker 1: me on Twitter all week long. There's no doubt they've 588 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,760 Speaker 1: had a ton of injuries. You know, again, as an 589 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:27,040 Speaker 1: analytics guy, I think the Henry injury is overstated. What's 590 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,480 Speaker 1: not overstated is the number of games they had to 591 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 1: play without a. J. Brown and Julio Jones and all 592 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,920 Speaker 1: the injuries they've also had on the defensive side of 593 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:39,800 Speaker 1: the ball and the offensive line too, right, I mean 594 00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:43,800 Speaker 1: law offensive line injuries too. Yeah, they've had injuries everywhere. 595 00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:48,080 Speaker 1: Not quite as bad as Baltimore because Baltimore kept losing 596 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 1: guys for the season, right, Tennessee kept losing guys for 597 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,480 Speaker 1: like three or four games. But most of those guys 598 00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:58,000 Speaker 1: are now healthy, so you do have to mentally adjust. 599 00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 1: They're not really the worst one seed ever if you 600 00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:05,520 Speaker 1: consider how they are when they're fully healthy. But mentally 601 00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:08,400 Speaker 1: adjusting for that is hard. Like, let's take the defense, 602 00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 1: Like you know, David Long missed three or four games, 603 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,000 Speaker 1: and Budget pre missed like five games, and then Christian 604 00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,640 Speaker 1: Fulton missed like five games, but they didn't all miss 605 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,320 Speaker 1: the same games. There isn't like a chunk of four 606 00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:21,920 Speaker 1: games that you can take out of Tennessee's rating and 607 00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 1: go all right, we're not going to consider those because 608 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,280 Speaker 1: the whole defense was out. We're only going to consider these, 609 00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,960 Speaker 1: and then this is how good Tennessee is plus. Other 610 00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,080 Speaker 1: teams have an argument. If you're going to do that 611 00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,120 Speaker 1: when you rate Tennessee, then you have to consider what 612 00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:38,440 Speaker 1: about those games were, Like Tampa Bay was just taking 613 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:41,960 Speaker 1: quarterbacks off the street and putting them in the lineup 614 00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:46,440 Speaker 1: like Richard Sherman and best see her right like Tampa Bay. 615 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:49,000 Speaker 1: Then then you need to adjust were Tampa You know, 616 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 1: every team has injuries. Some teams have been really, really healthy. 617 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 1: The Patriots are a good example. The Patriots have been 618 00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:59,080 Speaker 1: possibly the health team league this year. But most teams, 619 00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,920 Speaker 1: especially because of COVID, they've got guys going in and 620 00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:04,040 Speaker 1: out of the lineup all the time. So trying to 621 00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:07,560 Speaker 1: adjust what Tennessee is for the games where they were 622 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:12,120 Speaker 1: missing guys is tough. On offense, There's no question. If 623 00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:16,360 Speaker 1: you only look at games where Henry Jones and Brown 624 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:21,120 Speaker 1: all play, they're a much better offer. Interesting, but those 625 00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:25,360 Speaker 1: games were all two months ago. Yeah, well, Henry supposedly 626 00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,920 Speaker 1: coming back. But I do want to ask, like the 627 00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 1: last year they had Henry Brown, no Julio Jones, and 628 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:33,719 Speaker 1: they wanted the playoffs, you know, and everybody's like, oh, 629 00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:35,000 Speaker 1: they can make a run, and they lost in the 630 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 1: first round. To Baltimore in a game with their offense 631 00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:40,560 Speaker 1: could just do nothing. It looked like they were physically tired. 632 00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:42,480 Speaker 1: I mean, I know there's no way to put a 633 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 1: number on this, but do you think Henry missing what 634 00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 1: two months is in a way of blessing because he's 635 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,240 Speaker 1: gonna come in super fresh because he was running slow. 636 00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 1: He didn't have a carry of ten yards in that 637 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,239 Speaker 1: playoff game last year. I have no idea because I 638 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,520 Speaker 1: don't I can't tell you that I'm an expert on 639 00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,280 Speaker 1: what the recovery process from a broken foot is, Like 640 00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 1: I don't know what does come back And he's like 641 00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 1: super comfortable running on it or you feel a little 642 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:08,480 Speaker 1: weird about running on it because he hasn't been running 643 00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,759 Speaker 1: on it for two months, Like I don't know. That 644 00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,279 Speaker 1: is where Like, let's be honest, that extra week of 645 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:17,000 Speaker 1: practice where they don't have to play a game is 646 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,760 Speaker 1: so useful for them because of the Henry and Jones 647 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:23,239 Speaker 1: injuries and getting those guys back fully healthy and not 648 00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:27,520 Speaker 1: just fully healthy, but fully like confident in their bodies 649 00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,680 Speaker 1: is really huge for them. Um alright, so Tennessee, well 650 00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:33,480 Speaker 1: what about Indie? Do are we what are we supposed 651 00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,800 Speaker 1: to make of this whole. Jonathan Taylor, I don't know. 652 00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:37,799 Speaker 1: I'm of the belief that Carson Wentz is just so 653 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,960 Speaker 1: bad he's more likely to lose you a playoff game 654 00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 1: than win one. Um. But again there's no numbers on that. 655 00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:47,640 Speaker 1: That's just the eyeball test of Carson Wentz this year. Uh, 656 00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,040 Speaker 1: what do the numbers say about the Colts? Yeah, because 657 00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,760 Speaker 1: if you look at the numbers the car the Colts 658 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:56,480 Speaker 1: passing game has been average, Like, it has not been terrible, 659 00:34:56,600 --> 00:35:01,400 Speaker 1: it's been average. Um. I think Cults are an interesting team. 660 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:05,040 Speaker 1: They're right there good in every way other than the 661 00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:10,000 Speaker 1: passing game. In the passing game is average, and they're dangerous. 662 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:12,560 Speaker 1: And you know, we saw them destroy Buffalo and we 663 00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:14,879 Speaker 1: saw them destroy New England and like I said, those 664 00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:21,480 Speaker 1: are two really good teams that they beat. Um. But 665 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,000 Speaker 1: at the same time, there's always that feeling like Wentz 666 00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:28,640 Speaker 1: is going to do something really stupid. Game he hasn't 667 00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,760 Speaker 1: as much as you think he has. Well that because 668 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,279 Speaker 1: really has him on a short leash. Would you agree, Oh? 669 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:36,319 Speaker 1: I think so, yeah, Yeah, he just he's like you 670 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,839 Speaker 1: could see, he does not want him to screw up. 671 00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,719 Speaker 1: So with leads, they've all of a sudden becomes susceptible 672 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:45,399 Speaker 1: because you know, he's not gonna have wents throwing. Yeah, 673 00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:47,839 Speaker 1: and I mean I think the Patriots have a little 674 00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:51,680 Speaker 1: bit of that going on to because Karookie and they 675 00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:53,799 Speaker 1: don't want you know, they want to keep him a 676 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:57,800 Speaker 1: little bit contained. Um. Frankly, the forty Niners have a 677 00:35:57,880 --> 00:35:59,960 Speaker 1: little bit of that going on too, and Garoppolo start 678 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,959 Speaker 1: it's um. I mean, I think the Colts are are 679 00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:07,520 Speaker 1: are are dangerous. They're They're very good in our numbers, 680 00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:10,720 Speaker 1: but it is tough. The fact is that the passing 681 00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,400 Speaker 1: game is the most consistent part of football, and it 682 00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:17,080 Speaker 1: is where they are the worst. Yeah, alright, so Aaron, 683 00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:20,200 Speaker 1: I guess, well, if people are looking, everybody's gonna come 684 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:24,320 Speaker 1: out and pick the Packers, right. But that's that's very chalky. 685 00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:26,959 Speaker 1: I don't know, it sounds like you and and again 686 00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:29,000 Speaker 1: I'm not you know, reading into what you're saying. I'm 687 00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:32,000 Speaker 1: curious is just your official thought. It sounds like you 688 00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:35,000 Speaker 1: kind of like Buffalo in the a f C and 689 00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,520 Speaker 1: maybe Dallas in the NFC, I mean Buffalo or Kansas 690 00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,720 Speaker 1: City Buffalo. Yeah, I mean, I will say, like before 691 00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:47,120 Speaker 1: the season, my Super Bowl pick was Kansas City in Dallas. Wow, 692 00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,640 Speaker 1: you have Dallas before the season, so I still feel 693 00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:54,600 Speaker 1: pretty good about that. Yeah. Um, we have Dallas in 694 00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:57,919 Speaker 1: our playoff odds, second behind green Bay. So green Bay 695 00:36:57,960 --> 00:36:59,680 Speaker 1: is the proper I mean, if you want to be 696 00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,480 Speaker 1: most accurate, green Day is the proper pick. Yeah, to 697 00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,080 Speaker 1: be to be to get out of the NFC. These 698 00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,120 Speaker 1: of the importance of that number one seed. Um. And 699 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:11,680 Speaker 1: the fact is in the waited ratings the Chiefs are 700 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:15,879 Speaker 1: a little higher than the Bills now. But I think, well, 701 00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:18,440 Speaker 1: the Chiefs of what they had won seven in a row, right, Chiefs, 702 00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:23,160 Speaker 1: Chiefs Bills would be uh an excellent NFC champion. Yeah, um, 703 00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,080 Speaker 1: I do. The Chiefs had run seven in a row. 704 00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:30,480 Speaker 1: But by our numbers, the Chiefs outplayed the Bengus. Yes, 705 00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:32,040 Speaker 1: and I know that I'm not going to get into 706 00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:34,120 Speaker 1: the referees. And you know some of the some of 707 00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,080 Speaker 1: the stuff that happened in that one. Just the last 708 00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,040 Speaker 1: thing on the on the Dallas Cowboys. Again, I know 709 00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:41,080 Speaker 1: you're all numbers based, but when you watch doc for 710 00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:44,560 Speaker 1: the last month, what do you think's happened? You know, 711 00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,680 Speaker 1: remove that Washington game. The offense just hasn't been sharp. 712 00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:49,719 Speaker 1: Is there anything you can put your finger on as 713 00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:53,879 Speaker 1: to what they're not doing, or is this Kellen Moore saying, Hey, 714 00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,120 Speaker 1: you know what our defense is playing, Well, let's rein 715 00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:59,239 Speaker 1: in Doc a little bit. Have him play safer, and 716 00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:01,759 Speaker 1: let's let our d fence cares because the defense has 717 00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:05,080 Speaker 1: been pretty tremendous. I don't think they're playing safer. I 718 00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,480 Speaker 1: think it's a slump. I don't think that they're keeping 719 00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,040 Speaker 1: him contained. But when I look at it, I think 720 00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:14,480 Speaker 1: of it as similar to Mahomes at mid season. Not 721 00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:18,480 Speaker 1: on the same level, but we know that Dak Prescott 722 00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:20,360 Speaker 1: is one of the five or six best quarterbacks in 723 00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:23,080 Speaker 1: the game. Not again again, I'm not saying he's at 724 00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:26,000 Speaker 1: the level of Mahomes, but it's the same thing where 725 00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:28,000 Speaker 1: when Mahomes slumped in the middle of the season, we 726 00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:30,960 Speaker 1: all kind of sat there and went, all right, he's 727 00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:34,359 Speaker 1: gonna break out of this, right Like he's Mahomes, Like 728 00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,160 Speaker 1: we have a history of how good he is. He's 729 00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:39,759 Speaker 1: going to break out of this, and he did well. 730 00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:42,440 Speaker 1: Dak Prescott, we have a history of how good he is, 731 00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:44,759 Speaker 1: and how good he is historically is better than what 732 00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:47,160 Speaker 1: he's been the last three or four weeks. I just 733 00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:50,399 Speaker 1: get this feeling like he's gonna break. I'd rather bet 734 00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:52,840 Speaker 1: on the longer term with Dack than just a short 735 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:57,160 Speaker 1: term with DAC. So I feel like this is a slump, 736 00:38:57,560 --> 00:38:59,480 Speaker 1: but there's a good chance he breaks out of the slump. 737 00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:03,160 Speaker 1: I saw some some videos people were cutting up online 738 00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:06,960 Speaker 1: of the Arizona Cardinals were really tricking Doc by putting 739 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:11,080 Speaker 1: like five linebackers and six defensive They were just stacking 740 00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:14,239 Speaker 1: the field with quickness, and then at the last they 741 00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:15,759 Speaker 1: were stacking the line of scrimmage as well. At the 742 00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,400 Speaker 1: last minute they have linebackers dropped back and Deck was 743 00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,960 Speaker 1: not really reading it quick enough that that Arizona game 744 00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:24,040 Speaker 1: was a little troubling. But again, maybe you want to 745 00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:27,000 Speaker 1: just say, hey, he didn't have a good game. Yeah, 746 00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,560 Speaker 1: Plus he now could study that. I mean, the thing 747 00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:33,879 Speaker 1: about strategies that beat someone like that is that once 748 00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:36,640 Speaker 1: you've beaten someone like that, they can study it and 749 00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:39,000 Speaker 1: be prepared for it next time. So if he plays 750 00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,640 Speaker 1: I'm trying to think, like, what team that he would 751 00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:45,440 Speaker 1: play other than Arizona that has sort of the same 752 00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:50,360 Speaker 1: speed on the second and third level two two. I 753 00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,279 Speaker 1: don't think there is another team in the NFC that 754 00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:55,480 Speaker 1: has that speed at the second and third level to 755 00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:58,120 Speaker 1: quite do that. What Arizona, Well, we didn't talk about 756 00:39:58,120 --> 00:39:59,440 Speaker 1: the Eagles. I don't know about that. I think their 757 00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:03,600 Speaker 1: linebackers are pretty putrid, but their secondaries, Oka linebackers aren't 758 00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:07,880 Speaker 1: very good. And Tampa base, you know the secondaries. You know, 759 00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:10,560 Speaker 1: they get Lavonte David back, they might have. I mean, 760 00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:14,760 Speaker 1: you know, Davon White and Lavonte David is a nice 761 00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:18,440 Speaker 1: Tampa doesn't seem like a great matchup because Dallas Again, 762 00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:20,640 Speaker 1: the reason I like him is because you know, yes, 763 00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:22,600 Speaker 1: they can beat you with Doc and they've got great receivers. 764 00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,840 Speaker 1: I know, Gallops hurt, but that offensive line fully healthy, 765 00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:29,080 Speaker 1: can mall you. And you've got Zeke and Tony Pollard, 766 00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:31,600 Speaker 1: so you can play both ways if you play inclement weather. 767 00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,120 Speaker 1: They got a good run game. Yeah, and they're the 768 00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:38,520 Speaker 1: number one defense by our numbers. Wow, and that I 769 00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:41,040 Speaker 1: don't know, that seems a little weird given how bad 770 00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:43,279 Speaker 1: Trevon Diggs that people love the stat that he's been 771 00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:46,080 Speaker 1: He's given up more yards than any cornerback in the league. 772 00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:52,040 Speaker 1: You know, um and other quarterbacks haven't. That's a fair point. 773 00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:54,880 Speaker 1: Uh Yeah, So you like that defense. I saw Michael 774 00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:57,560 Speaker 1: Parsons is on the COVID list now, which is I guess, 775 00:40:57,640 --> 00:40:59,640 Speaker 1: you know, I don't want to dive into that too much, 776 00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:01,960 Speaker 1: but it's almost better to get on it now. Right, 777 00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:05,200 Speaker 1: Philly game means This Philly game means almost nothing. Like 778 00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:09,279 Speaker 1: I looked at the playoff leverage of like how much 779 00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,719 Speaker 1: it changes the chances of making the Super Bowl for 780 00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,960 Speaker 1: Dallas in Philadelphia based on they win or lose this game, 781 00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,239 Speaker 1: and it's like point two. Is there any game this 782 00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:21,880 Speaker 1: weekend that is changing? Changing the seeding means almost nothing 783 00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:24,359 Speaker 1: for these teams? Nothing? Okay, is there any game this 784 00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:29,239 Speaker 1: weekend that would significantly change Super Bowl numbers? I mean 785 00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:33,680 Speaker 1: the biggest that changes is is um. I mean the 786 00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:35,920 Speaker 1: biggest it changes is if Tennessee drops out of the 787 00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:40,160 Speaker 1: number one seed. But obviously also like who wins between 788 00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:43,319 Speaker 1: the Chargers and the Chargers Raiders. Yep, that's a big 789 00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:46,920 Speaker 1: forty Niners Rams is the other big game of the weekend, 790 00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:52,600 Speaker 1: right because if they win, they're in division if the Rams. 791 00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:54,120 Speaker 1: If the Rams lose, I think they go on the 792 00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:57,720 Speaker 1: road in Arizona gets the number one seed. Assuming Arizona Rams, 793 00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:01,800 Speaker 1: I believe that if the Rams lose and Arizona beat Seattle, 794 00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,120 Speaker 1: then yes, the Rams go on the road and Arizona 795 00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:09,800 Speaker 1: gets in, Arizona gets the whatever the four Yeah yeah, yeah, Okay, 796 00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:11,960 Speaker 1: all right, I'm getting excited, man, Aaron. I don't know 797 00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:14,120 Speaker 1: about you, but you know calendar two thousand, twenty two, 798 00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:16,759 Speaker 1: playoffs coming up and uh super Bowl. Right about this 799 00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:19,960 Speaker 1: is this is gonna be a really interesting playoffs because 800 00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:22,960 Speaker 1: this is a year, like people have talked about it 801 00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:27,759 Speaker 1: a lot, where there's no historically great team at all. Yeah, right, 802 00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:30,080 Speaker 1: Like we have no team in our numbers with a 803 00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:34,239 Speaker 1: d v o A over going back to three, there's 804 00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:37,840 Speaker 1: only seven other years where no team was over. It's 805 00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:41,960 Speaker 1: it's rare for no team to be over. So like, 806 00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:45,200 Speaker 1: the best teams this year are pretty good, but there's 807 00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:49,040 Speaker 1: no like team where like Kansas City a couple of 808 00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:51,680 Speaker 1: years ago, or where you mean even Baltimore, even though 809 00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:53,719 Speaker 1: they lost their first playoff game in twenty nine teen, 810 00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:58,120 Speaker 1: they went into the playoffs like super ridiculously hot, like Tampa, 811 00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:01,160 Speaker 1: New Orleans and Kansas City were better last year than 812 00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:05,120 Speaker 1: what uh any team has been this year. Like there's 813 00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:07,880 Speaker 1: just um, it's a really there's a lot of parody 814 00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:09,719 Speaker 1: this year, and it's there's a lot of feeling of 815 00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:11,719 Speaker 1: anybody could come out of it. I kind of like that. 816 00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:13,799 Speaker 1: I don't mind it all. I like dominant teams too, 817 00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:16,440 Speaker 1: because they're also good for business. But parody is fun 818 00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:18,600 Speaker 1: because you just you no idea what's gonna happen. All right, 819 00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:21,320 Speaker 1: Aaron shats Football Outsiders definitely read his stuff. Are you 820 00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:24,799 Speaker 1: still doing the column for the picks for ESPN? I'm 821 00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:28,040 Speaker 1: on the ESPN Shock Best Best column every week. How 822 00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:30,920 Speaker 1: how was that going for you this year? I think 823 00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:34,680 Speaker 1: I'm like thirteen or fourteen picks over five. D Wow. 824 00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:37,960 Speaker 1: That's that's very now is that? Are you doing teasers, parlays, 825 00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,440 Speaker 1: straight up totals or straight up? It's a it's a 826 00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:43,680 Speaker 1: mix of it's a mix of picking lines, picking over unders, 827 00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:46,280 Speaker 1: and a few player props props. Okay, alright, good stuff, 828 00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:49,120 Speaker 1: Aeron chats can continued success. We'll talk to you soon. 829 00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:50,600 Speaker 1: Talk to you later, man,