WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 10th, 2025

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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<v Speaker 2>with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day

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<v Speaker 2>for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

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<v Speaker 2>from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

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<v Speaker 2>live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

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<v Speaker 2>am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

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<v Speaker 2>anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. The former US Vice

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<v Speaker 2>President Mike Pence taking a critical stance on President Trump's tariffs,

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<v Speaker 2>writing in a Wall Street Journal op ed in the

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<v Speaker 2>past few months that since the President announced his Liberation

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<v Speaker 2>Day tariffs, the only thing America has been limerated from

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<v Speaker 2>is trillions of dollars in investments. And pleased to say,

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<v Speaker 2>the forty eighth Vice President of the United States, Mike Pence,

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<v Speaker 2>joins us now for more. It's the vice president of Mornick.

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<v Speaker 3>Good morning, votes for having me on.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks for being I want to pick up on a

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<v Speaker 2>question I know you've been exploring. What can forty seven

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<v Speaker 2>then from forty five. Let's start that, and silk Aback's right.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, well, first off, I'm want to give President Trump

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<v Speaker 4>all the credit in the world for a historic political comeback.

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<v Speaker 4>But in that Republican primary I was traveling as a

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<v Speaker 4>candidate in twenty twenty three, I mostly heard people saying,

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<v Speaker 4>we want to get back in the midst of the

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<v Speaker 4>failed economic policies of the Biden administration. We want to

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<v Speaker 4>get back to what the Trump pens administration was advancing.

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<v Speaker 4>And so in the Wall Street Journal I gave the

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<v Speaker 4>president great credit, high marks for securing the border, for

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<v Speaker 4>restoring morale and recruitment in our military, for taking the

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<v Speaker 4>fight to the Hoho Thies. Since then, I will talk

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<v Speaker 4>more later. I'm very encouraged about the strong stand that

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<v Speaker 4>the President is taking on the world stage, particularly in

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<v Speaker 4>the Middle.

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<v Speaker 3>East and in Eastern Europe.

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<v Speaker 4>But what I wanted to call attention to was the

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<v Speaker 4>policy toward tariffs was was changed with Liberation Day. During

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<v Speaker 4>our administration, we use tariffs in the threat of tariffs

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<v Speaker 4>principally focused on China to leverage changes in behavior, but

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<v Speaker 4>the objective was to essentially lower trade barriers and expand trade.

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<v Speaker 4>In this administration, I think what we saw several months ago,

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<v Speaker 4>now it's paused again happily, is the kind of broad

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<v Speaker 4>based industrial policy that I think ultimately will harm the

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<v Speaker 4>American economy, will harm American consumers, and so we've spoken

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<v Speaker 4>out against it. We've tried to take a stand. What

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<v Speaker 4>I like to say is free trade with free nations.

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<v Speaker 4>Be tough on China, be tough on trade abusers, but

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<v Speaker 4>have the objective of ultimately lowering trade barriers, and that's

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<v Speaker 4>how America wins and prospers. That's how we won during

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<v Speaker 4>our first term.

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<v Speaker 2>You've identified that change. What's your understanding of what's behind it,

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<v Speaker 2>what's lent that change?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think that what's changed is that I think

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<v Speaker 4>the president feels at least I perceive it. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>sometimes I tell people that I know President Trump better

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<v Speaker 4>than his most ardent defenders. We served together for four

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<v Speaker 4>and a half years. We had a close working relationship,

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<v Speaker 4>and I've said many times President Trump is not an isolationist.

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<v Speaker 4>He is someone deeply committed to free market capitalism. But

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<v Speaker 4>for all of his career he has been very sympathetic

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<v Speaker 4>to protectionist thinking in philosophy. You can go back thirty

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<v Speaker 4>years on YouTube and find Donald Trump saying the same

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<v Speaker 4>things that President Trump is saying today. He and I

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<v Speaker 4>had many vigorous conversations during our four years about trade.

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<v Speaker 4>I come from one of the leading exporting states in

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<v Speaker 4>the country. What we make, we grow in Indiana, we

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<v Speaker 4>sell to the world. But at the end of the day,

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<v Speaker 4>I think what you're seeing is not different influences around

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<v Speaker 4>President Trump. I think you're simply seeing him extending out

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<v Speaker 4>into a philosophy of government and economics that he has

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<v Speaker 4>long believed.

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<v Speaker 5>Were these impulses then there when he during the first

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<v Speaker 5>administration and individuals like you maybe talked him out of it, well,

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<v Speaker 5>I don't know.

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<v Speaker 3>That it was.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, there were a few times that I saw

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<v Speaker 4>him change his mind on things, but I think it

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<v Speaker 4>was more about priorities in the first term, to make

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<v Speaker 4>sure that we passed the tax cuts, rolled back regulation,

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<v Speaker 4>unleashed American energy, and we changed the national consensus on China.

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<v Speaker 3>In China with its years of trade abuses.

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<v Speaker 4>And I played a leading role in articulating that in

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<v Speaker 4>the early going, and I'm incredibly proud of that record

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<v Speaker 4>and that at least the Biden administration didn't change the

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<v Speaker 4>tariff policy towards China. But for me it was more

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<v Speaker 4>about it was more about driving toward free trade agreement.

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<v Speaker 4>So I had the privilege of announcing the beginning of

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<v Speaker 4>a free trade agreement with UK at this in the

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<v Speaker 4>City of London. We renegotiated a free trade agreement with

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<v Speaker 4>South Korea that's back in the news this week with

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<v Speaker 4>new tariff threats, and I was leading with my counterpart

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<v Speaker 4>in Japan. I was actually tasked with leading a working

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<v Speaker 4>group for a free trade agreement with Japan. So for US,

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<v Speaker 4>it was that we saw an expansion of trade and

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<v Speaker 4>opening markets as a key part of American growth right now.

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<v Speaker 4>I actually believe that President Trump is driving toward a

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<v Speaker 4>long term change in industrial policy in America where he

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<v Speaker 4>sees permanent unilateral.

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<v Speaker 3>Trade tariff barriers.

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<v Speaker 4>As beneficial to America in the long term, and as

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<v Speaker 4>a free market conservative, as something I just don't embrace.

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<v Speaker 5>Can you do that and isolate China with the rest

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<v Speaker 5>of the world on board at the same time, Well, a, Marie.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's the right question that.

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<v Speaker 4>Senator Phil Graham, we had on Capitol Hill with our

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<v Speaker 4>foundation yesterday, had over one hundred staffers that came out

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<v Speaker 4>to hear him He had probably the best description of it.

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<v Speaker 3>He said.

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<v Speaker 4>He said, by going after all of the free nations

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<v Speaker 4>that you're trading with at the same time that you're

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<v Speaker 4>trying to bring China farther along in opening markets and

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<v Speaker 4>ending years of trade abuses, he said, it's like it's

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<v Speaker 4>like dismissing your front line in a football game and

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<v Speaker 4>expecting that you're going to take on the other side. Look,

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<v Speaker 4>we need Japan, we need South Korea, we need Australia,

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<v Speaker 4>we need the EU to continue to bring the kind

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<v Speaker 4>of economic pressure on China that I believe is all

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<v Speaker 4>that President g and the Chinese Communist Party will will respect.

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<v Speaker 3>We saw some change.

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<v Speaker 4>Remember that Phase one trade deal in the early days

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<v Speaker 4>of twenty twenty. Most people have long since forgotten it.

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<v Speaker 4>There were bigger stories that year by far, but we

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<v Speaker 4>saw the China when we imposed those two hundred and

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<v Speaker 4>fifty billion dollars in tariffs. The Chinese came to the

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<v Speaker 4>table quickly and began negotiations. And I still believe that's

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<v Speaker 4>the right approach, with free trade, with free nations being

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<v Speaker 4>the backstop.

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<v Speaker 6>Mister Vice President, I want to pick out a line

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<v Speaker 6>in that Wall Street Journal up ed that John was

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<v Speaker 6>mentioning that you wrote, mister Trump's proposed tariffs would be

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<v Speaker 6>the largest peacetime hike in American history, harming consumers and

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<v Speaker 6>driving inflation. President Trump his administration has been talking about

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<v Speaker 6>they're not going to be inflationary, that the producers and

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<v Speaker 6>other countries are going to absorb it. Are you seeing

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<v Speaker 6>evidence that that's not the case. Are you really concerned

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<v Speaker 6>about what this does to the economy?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I really am, and I understand that that's the

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<v Speaker 4>debate right now. We haven't seen the inflation from Liberation Day,

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<v Speaker 4>and I think there's several reasons to explain that.

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<v Speaker 3>Number one is.

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<v Speaker 4>The teriff regime was paused and has now been paused again,

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<v Speaker 4>and the markets and are responding to that, and businesses

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<v Speaker 4>are responding. Secondly, I got to tell you the businesses

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<v Speaker 4>I talked to as I travel around the country have

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<v Speaker 4>been spending an awful lot of money on inventory right now.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, there's an old saying where I come from

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<v Speaker 4>that you know, I was born in the morning, but

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<v Speaker 4>not yesterday morning. So people say that these tariffs are common,

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<v Speaker 4>So why don't we Why don't we fill the warehouse

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<v Speaker 4>right now? And I think that's wise but you know,

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<v Speaker 4>at the end of the day, I also think that

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<v Speaker 4>you know, the President on Liberation Day talked about twenty

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<v Speaker 4>five fifty seventy percent tariffs on countries, and seeing some

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<v Speaker 4>of these early frameworks that end up with the UK

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<v Speaker 4>with ten percent, there's a temptation to say, well, that's

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<v Speaker 4>just ten percent, And so I think that's the reason

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<v Speaker 4>why markets, so my businesses have not adjusted prices yet.

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<v Speaker 4>But if we have a unilateral tariff of ten percent

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<v Speaker 4>on the American economy of all imported goods, that's four

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<v Speaker 4>times the average tariff today. And the reality is that

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<v Speaker 4>I watch, you know, I spent a lot of time

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<v Speaker 4>in that cabinet room. I watched a little bit of

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<v Speaker 4>the cabinet meeting this week, and I saw Secretary Vessant

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<v Speaker 4>speaking very glowingly about the projection is three hundred billion

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<v Speaker 4>dollars in tariff revenue this year. Well, tariffs are attax

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<v Speaker 4>and American importers and businesses and ultimately consumers pay almost

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<v Speaker 4>all of that. And so literally a week after we

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<v Speaker 4>managed to extend the Trumpets tax cuts and prevent a

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<v Speaker 4>two thousand dollars tax increase on working families, the administration

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<v Speaker 4>is right now boasting.

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<v Speaker 3>Of the fact that.

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<v Speaker 4>The average American household is going to see about three

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<v Speaker 4>thousand dollars increase in the cost of goods because we're

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<v Speaker 4>paying that. So that's why I referred to a liberation day.

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<v Speaker 4>I said, could well be the largest peacetime tax hike

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<v Speaker 4>in American history. We've been pushing back on that. I

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<v Speaker 4>welcome the pauses, but I I really do believe the

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<v Speaker 4>antidote here is free trade with free nations. Tough on China,

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<v Speaker 4>but continue continue to drive toward lowering trade barriers and

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<v Speaker 4>you know, non tariff subsidient.

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<v Speaker 2>He reflects the inflation risk. The White House of don't

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<v Speaker 2>say like this feder af to cut interest rates. You've

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<v Speaker 2>been in the room a few times. I'm sure it's

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<v Speaker 2>talking about this federic f How did the president end

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<v Speaker 2>up with a the heat dislikes so much? How did

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<v Speaker 2>that happen?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, well, I've been watching a lot of what the

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<v Speaker 4>presidents had to say about Jay Powell lately.

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<v Speaker 3>And.

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<v Speaker 4>He did appoint him, So it's part of the awkward

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<v Speaker 4>aspect here. Well, first, I think the President of the

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<v Speaker 4>United States is fully entitled to express his opinion about

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<v Speaker 4>both the FED chair and about the Federal Reserve itself.

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<v Speaker 4>I have long had great concerns about the dual.

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<v Speaker 3>Mandate and the Federal Reserve.

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<v Speaker 4>I think it confuses the issue, and the Federal Reserve

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<v Speaker 4>has his for your viewers, has a dual mandate to

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<v Speaker 4>protect the integrity of the dollar and achieve full employment.

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<v Speaker 4>I think the Federal Reserve ought to just focus on

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<v Speaker 4>the dollar. And I think that the hesitation that I

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<v Speaker 4>have seen from the Fed chair and ostensibly the Committee

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<v Speaker 4>is that the uncertainty around these broad based tariffs and

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<v Speaker 4>the potential for inflation has slowed their intention and and

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<v Speaker 4>their earlier efforts at at lowering rates.

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<v Speaker 3>And so.

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<v Speaker 4>How the President got to where he can he considers

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<v Speaker 4>the Federal Reserve chairman to be worthy of the nickname

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<v Speaker 4>too late. I can't really testify, but but to me,

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<v Speaker 4>you're pushing back on on the idea that what's what

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<v Speaker 4>seems to be holding up the Federal Reserve. Although I

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<v Speaker 4>read this morning there's now more vigorous debate. I'm sure

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<v Speaker 4>you've covered here on Bloomberg on the Committee as that

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<v Speaker 4>there we may have lowering of interest rates, which certainly

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<v Speaker 4>would welcome.

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<v Speaker 2>As you know, the President one of his greatest strengths

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<v Speaker 2>is to break the status quaid and have very little

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<v Speaker 2>respect for it. That limits to that, and it's fed

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<v Speaker 2>independence and example of it.

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<v Speaker 4>That's that's right, and I think, look, the President appoints

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<v Speaker 4>the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and a careful study

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<v Speaker 4>of American history shows I don't really accept that the

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<v Speaker 4>Federal Reserve should be a completely.

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<v Speaker 3>Separate agency, you.

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<v Speaker 4>Know, like a college of cardinals that we never refer

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<v Speaker 4>to other than in respectful hush tones. John, I think

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<v Speaker 4>the president ought to be able to express himself. Elected

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<v Speaker 4>officials ought to be able to express themselves, because it's

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<v Speaker 4>almost like that old saying about the Supreme Court. You

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<v Speaker 4>know that justices do read the newspaper, and I expect

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<v Speaker 4>that's also true of members of the Federal Reserve.

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<v Speaker 2>You have taken a balance view on the current administration.

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<v Speaker 2>You've been somewhat critically of trained. We've discussed that, I

0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:38.200
<v Speaker 2>would say ringing endulsement about that approach to the Middle East.

0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:40.719
<v Speaker 2>So let's talk about that. You know where you were

0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:43.520
<v Speaker 2>in your first term with the president, where he is

0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:45.680
<v Speaker 2>in his second term, and what went wrong in between

0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:48.600
<v Speaker 2>from your standpoint on the Middle East.

0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:54.920
<v Speaker 4>Well, I just think when Joe Biden returned to a

0:13:55.040 --> 0:14:00.920
<v Speaker 4>policy of appeasement toward Iran, it really in bold UH

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:04.600
<v Speaker 4>the enemies UH of Israel across UH the region. I

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:09.440
<v Speaker 4>I I traveled to Israel in about six months UH

0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:13.000
<v Speaker 4>after October seventh and saw what occurred there, and I

0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:14.480
<v Speaker 4>I would tell you it's one of the things I'm

0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:17.120
<v Speaker 4>probably most proud of our administration.

0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:20.200
<v Speaker 3>And not only did UH did we we.

0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 4>Changed the national consensus on China, but UH we were

0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:29.440
<v Speaker 4>probably UH the most pro Israel administration since the re

0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:32.000
<v Speaker 4>establishment of the State of Israel in nineteen forty eight.

0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:35.520
<v Speaker 4>There's just simply to recognize it. Moving the American embassy

0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:39.120
<v Speaker 4>to Jerusalem, recognizing the gol Onites, these were all historic

0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:44.080
<v Speaker 4>achievements that everyone told us would foment violence and discord

0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:47.880
<v Speaker 4>UH across the Middle East. But again, another twenty twenty

0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:50.440
<v Speaker 4>story that is long forgotten by many.

0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:52.200
<v Speaker 3>People's the Abraham.

0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:55.040
<v Speaker 4>Of course, I mean we we actually imonstrated that when

0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:59.360
<v Speaker 4>you stand without UH w W in an unwavering way

0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:02.720
<v Speaker 4>with with Israel that I call our most cherished ally

0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:08.120
<v Speaker 4>throughout our history, it sends a very clear scegnal that

0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:11.560
<v Speaker 4>makes peace more possible. Not less possible. We also isolated

0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:16.720
<v Speaker 4>Iran as never before. We unleashed our military to take

0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:21.240
<v Speaker 4>down the ISIS Caliphate, and of course the President made

0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:24.280
<v Speaker 4>the decision to take down Accustom Solomoni, the head of

0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:30.320
<v Speaker 4>the Iran Revolutionary Guard. All of that had Iran on

0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:34.040
<v Speaker 4>its back heels. The Biden administration changed that went back

0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:36.720
<v Speaker 4>to the Obama approach of re engaging with the Mullahs

0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:41.040
<v Speaker 4>in Tehran. I think they were emboldened the violence that

0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:45.720
<v Speaker 4>we saw, whether it be October seventh with Hamas one

0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:50.000
<v Speaker 4>of their patron groups, where the Houthis all were a

0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:54.560
<v Speaker 4>resultd I've always believed that that weakness arouses evil, but

0:15:54.840 --> 0:15:58.480
<v Speaker 4>peace comes through strength, and the weakness of the Biden

0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:02.720
<v Speaker 4>administration I think created the conditions for the mayhem that

0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:07.520
<v Speaker 4>the new Trump administration inherited. And that's why I've been

0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:11.520
<v Speaker 4>so encouraged to see the strong stand the President has

0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:18.800
<v Speaker 4>taken with Israel. We publicly encouraged the use of American

0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:19.800
<v Speaker 4>military assets.

0:16:20.360 --> 0:16:22.560
<v Speaker 3>If Iran was not willing to dismantle their.

0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:26.400
<v Speaker 4>Nuclear program, I believe it needed to be destroyed, and

0:16:26.760 --> 0:16:30.320
<v Speaker 4>I commend the President for his decisive leadership in our

0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:34.040
<v Speaker 4>incredible airman who delivered those payloads.

0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:36.720
<v Speaker 5>You welcomed those strikes on the Irani nuclear facilities. But

0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.440
<v Speaker 5>the President still talks about a deal with Iran. Do

0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:42.080
<v Speaker 5>you think he'll do a deal at any cost?

0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:45.520
<v Speaker 3>Well, I hope not.

0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:48.080
<v Speaker 4>I said in that Wall Street Journal piece that you cited.

0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:52.480
<v Speaker 4>It was about two months ago, and one of my concerns,

0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:55.080
<v Speaker 4>in addition to some of the tariff issues that we

0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:58.640
<v Speaker 4>talked about, was that a lot of what we were

0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:02.280
<v Speaker 4>hearing from the administration in the first hundred days sounded

0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:06.280
<v Speaker 4>an awful lot like a new Iran nuclear deal, and

0:17:07.119 --> 0:17:09.080
<v Speaker 4>we pushed back on that pretty hard.

0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:10.359
<v Speaker 3>And I.

0:17:11.960 --> 0:17:17.920
<v Speaker 4>My hope is that the President, having seen both the

0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:22.080
<v Speaker 4>run up to the need for American action and also

0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:27.920
<v Speaker 4>the response by the Malus in Tehran, we'll keep He'll

0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:32.760
<v Speaker 4>keep his hand on the holster and look ultimately for

0:17:33.240 --> 0:17:36.840
<v Speaker 4>achieving the objective that that has been the stated US

0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:39.959
<v Speaker 4>policy through multiple administrations that Ran can never be allowed

0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:43.800
<v Speaker 4>to obtain a nuclear weapon or have a nuclear program

0:17:43.800 --> 0:17:44.400
<v Speaker 4>of any kind.

0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:46.760
<v Speaker 5>When it comes to foreign policy, you've been very critical

0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:50.280
<v Speaker 5>and hawkish on Russia. In the debate when you were

0:17:50.760 --> 0:17:52.879
<v Speaker 5>running with President Trump in the first term, you called

0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:56.360
<v Speaker 5>putin a small and bullying dictator. Why do you think

0:17:56.359 --> 0:17:59.200
<v Speaker 5>Trump has only just started changing his tune when it

0:17:59.200 --> 0:17:59.880
<v Speaker 5>comes to Vladimir.

0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:04.920
<v Speaker 3>Well, I've never had any illusions about Vladimir Putin. No,

0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:09.440
<v Speaker 3>but President Trump has Well, that remains to be seen.

0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:13.080
<v Speaker 4>I would tell you that, you know, I was on

0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:15.280
<v Speaker 4>the Foreign Affairs Committee when I was in the Congress.

0:18:15.920 --> 0:18:18.880
<v Speaker 4>I've been a student of Vladimir Putin. He's never made

0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:22.639
<v Speaker 4>a secret of his ambitions in Eastern Europe. It's something

0:18:22.680 --> 0:18:27.040
<v Speaker 4>he's spoken about, written about. His aim has always been

0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:31.080
<v Speaker 4>to re establish the old Soviet sphere of influence in

0:18:31.119 --> 0:18:33.679
<v Speaker 4>Eastern Europe. And I really do believe it was our

0:18:33.720 --> 0:18:37.600
<v Speaker 4>administration in the Trump Pence years that were the first

0:18:37.680 --> 0:18:41.359
<v Speaker 4>to literally provide lethal aid to Ukraine. I think that's

0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:45.760
<v Speaker 4>what discouraged Putin from crossing.

0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:47.000
<v Speaker 3>That border during those four years.

0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:50.800
<v Speaker 4>Forget, and I think it continues to be the only

0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:52.040
<v Speaker 4>pathway toward peace today.

0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:54.720
<v Speaker 6>But forgive me, mister Vice President, to go back to

0:18:54.760 --> 0:18:57.840
<v Speaker 6>Emory's question, what's changed? Because right now we've seen a

0:18:57.840 --> 0:19:02.359
<v Speaker 6>president who's warned against Russia doing crossing certain real lines

0:19:02.359 --> 0:19:06.320
<v Speaker 6>that Russia's crossed, and then the sanctions haven't come. Right,

0:19:06.440 --> 0:19:07.640
<v Speaker 6>what do you think is going on.

0:19:07.880 --> 0:19:09.600
<v Speaker 3>Well, I'm hopeful that they will.

0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:14.080
<v Speaker 4>What makes you I am I've seen some statements by

0:19:14.720 --> 0:19:18.200
<v Speaker 4>my friend Senator Lindsey Graham, who just in the last

0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:21.160
<v Speaker 4>few days said that the President told him to move

0:19:21.200 --> 0:19:28.239
<v Speaker 4>the bill, and these new Russia sanctions, which are the

0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:31.520
<v Speaker 4>secondary sanctions against people that are doing business with Russia

0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:36.000
<v Speaker 4>that are subsidizing the war effort by oil purchases and

0:19:36.119 --> 0:19:40.360
<v Speaker 4>energy purchases, I think can be enormously impactful.

0:19:40.520 --> 0:19:45.280
<v Speaker 3>But you know, I would I would say that, you.

0:19:45.200 --> 0:19:56.640
<v Speaker 4>Know, I've made it very clear that that my deep

0:19:56.680 --> 0:20:02.560
<v Speaker 4>conviction is Vladimir Putin doesn't want piece. Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine,

0:20:03.320 --> 0:20:07.359
<v Speaker 4>and despite the stops and starts that gave him any

0:20:07.400 --> 0:20:12.199
<v Speaker 4>of US concern, including that famous Oval Office meeting between

0:20:12.200 --> 0:20:15.880
<v Speaker 4>the President and President Zelenski, who I came to know, well,

0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:21.760
<v Speaker 4>I sense that my old running mate is coming around

0:20:21.760 --> 0:20:26.359
<v Speaker 4>to recognizing Putin's real intentions here. I mean when I

0:20:26.400 --> 0:20:34.040
<v Speaker 4>think that the the clear irritation in the President's voice

0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:37.560
<v Speaker 4>of having a conversation and then to see some of

0:20:37.560 --> 0:20:40.840
<v Speaker 4>the some of the worst drone attacks launched in Kiev

0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:47.800
<v Speaker 4>within a matter of hours, is I think having its effect.

0:20:47.960 --> 0:20:52.000
<v Speaker 4>But look, I just think that I was pleased that

0:20:52.119 --> 0:20:55.120
<v Speaker 4>the President countermanded what had been a pause of aid

0:20:55.200 --> 0:21:03.320
<v Speaker 4>to Ukraine last week, which I think was unfortunate wherever

0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:07.240
<v Speaker 4>it originated. But I commend the President for reversing that decision.

0:21:08.160 --> 0:21:12.240
<v Speaker 4>And my hope is when the Senate reconvenes that Senator

0:21:12.280 --> 0:21:16.840
<v Speaker 4>Thunal will put the Graham Bill on the floor and

0:21:17.480 --> 0:21:18.800
<v Speaker 4>put it on the President's desk.

0:21:18.840 --> 0:21:22.439
<v Speaker 3>I think it's time, and it's my judgment.

0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:25.119
<v Speaker 4>I've met Vladimir Putin. I've stood with him closer than

0:21:25.160 --> 0:21:27.760
<v Speaker 4>I'm sitting next to you. I've told him things he

0:21:27.800 --> 0:21:33.159
<v Speaker 4>didn't want to hear, and I think he is I

0:21:33.200 --> 0:21:36.960
<v Speaker 4>think he is not a man who understands anything other

0:21:37.040 --> 0:21:41.920
<v Speaker 4>than strength. And this is a moment, I think where

0:21:42.240 --> 0:21:44.240
<v Speaker 4>it's in the interest of our country, it's in the

0:21:44.280 --> 0:21:48.200
<v Speaker 4>interest of our allies in the region and long term

0:21:48.240 --> 0:21:50.920
<v Speaker 4>peace in Eastern Europe for US to continue to provide

0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:56.760
<v Speaker 4>military support to Ukraine, to put punishing sanctions on Russia

0:21:57.080 --> 0:21:59.320
<v Speaker 4>until the just and lasting peace can be secured.

0:22:00.119 --> 0:22:03.000
<v Speaker 2>President, I appreciate your time, sir, enjoyed the conversation.

0:22:03.280 --> 0:22:04.560
<v Speaker 3>Great, it's going to say it. Thank you.

0:22:05.040 --> 0:22:07.320
<v Speaker 2>The former Vice President of the United States. There Mike

0:22:07.400 --> 0:22:19.800
<v Speaker 2>Plans joining US non plays the science Bloomberg's mid Men

0:22:19.840 --> 0:22:22.080
<v Speaker 2>Low from Kuala Lumpa, Midmen, good.

0:22:21.880 --> 0:22:26.920
<v Speaker 3>Morning, good morning.

0:22:27.000 --> 0:22:28.920
<v Speaker 7>Yes, I'm here the Asian Summit and it's a big

0:22:29.000 --> 0:22:31.560
<v Speaker 7>day because the Asian foreign ministers are meeting with many

0:22:31.600 --> 0:22:35.600
<v Speaker 7>key dialogue partners, including the envoye from Career, Japan, China,

0:22:35.680 --> 0:22:38.080
<v Speaker 7>the US, and of course the EU as well. And

0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:41.600
<v Speaker 7>joining me here is the EU's top diplomat, Kayak Kalas.

0:22:41.880 --> 0:22:44.720
<v Speaker 7>Thank you so much for making time. So tariffs have

0:22:44.840 --> 0:22:48.080
<v Speaker 7>been looing very large over this entire summit. The EU

0:22:48.200 --> 0:22:51.200
<v Speaker 7>hasn't yet received that letter from Trump. What is your

0:22:51.240 --> 0:22:53.520
<v Speaker 7>team expecting to see you, whether that let it comes,

0:22:53.560 --> 0:22:57.120
<v Speaker 7>any specific coverouts in particular that you're expecting to have achieved.

0:22:57.640 --> 0:23:00.919
<v Speaker 8>Well. Of course, sir, trade team is working very hard

0:23:01.760 --> 0:23:05.919
<v Speaker 8>to get good agreement, but at the same time we

0:23:05.960 --> 0:23:09.840
<v Speaker 8>are also working with other countries like here in Southeast

0:23:09.840 --> 0:23:14.119
<v Speaker 8>Asia or in the world to have trade deals and

0:23:14.240 --> 0:23:18.560
<v Speaker 8>trade agreement agreements to diversify our trade portfolios.

0:23:18.920 --> 0:23:21.920
<v Speaker 7>Okay, so the Chinese Forum MINUSA one is here as well.

0:23:22.280 --> 0:23:25.080
<v Speaker 7>Are you going to meet him to maybe stabilize relations

0:23:25.119 --> 0:23:27.520
<v Speaker 7>a little bit? Because it seems like that you China

0:23:28.680 --> 0:23:31.560
<v Speaker 7>sub it might be partially derailed from what we have

0:23:31.640 --> 0:23:32.480
<v Speaker 7>reported before.

0:23:33.680 --> 0:23:38.760
<v Speaker 8>Well, we had a good meeting in Brussels with my

0:23:38.920 --> 0:23:42.879
<v Speaker 8>counterpart and we are discussing it's the same format that

0:23:42.960 --> 0:23:46.840
<v Speaker 8>we have had in twenty twenty three the summit then,

0:23:46.960 --> 0:23:50.800
<v Speaker 8>and and it's important the substance. What are we discussing?

0:23:51.119 --> 0:23:53.240
<v Speaker 7>But you're cutting a shot and you're you're not bringing

0:23:53.280 --> 0:23:54.359
<v Speaker 7>any additional business.

0:23:54.440 --> 0:23:58.800
<v Speaker 8>Now, there was there was no no you know plan

0:23:59.119 --> 0:24:03.000
<v Speaker 8>that was that was the question that that actually wasn't

0:24:03.119 --> 0:24:07.120
<v Speaker 8>clear how China wants to hold this summit and now

0:24:07.160 --> 0:24:10.639
<v Speaker 8>we know that it's one day, and what kind of

0:24:10.680 --> 0:24:13.359
<v Speaker 8>meetings we have and what discussions we have.

0:24:13.720 --> 0:24:16.760
<v Speaker 7>What is your response to China's assertion that the EU's

0:24:17.200 --> 0:24:20.399
<v Speaker 7>public percubin has been unfair, that the EU does have

0:24:20.480 --> 0:24:25.080
<v Speaker 7>its own immense subsidies for its manufacturers and producers as well.

0:24:25.200 --> 0:24:26.760
<v Speaker 7>Is there a double standard being applied.

0:24:27.200 --> 0:24:32.679
<v Speaker 8>No, Well, our subsidies are in accordance with the WTO rules.

0:24:32.440 --> 0:24:34.960
<v Speaker 3>So this is very very clear.

0:24:35.359 --> 0:24:38.240
<v Speaker 8>We want a level playing fields. We are very worried

0:24:38.280 --> 0:24:41.320
<v Speaker 8>about the economic version of China, and we are also

0:24:41.359 --> 0:24:46.560
<v Speaker 8>worried about they're enabling Russia's war in Ukraine. So these

0:24:46.560 --> 0:24:47.720
<v Speaker 8>are the two big.

0:24:47.480 --> 0:24:48.119
<v Speaker 3>Issues we have.

0:24:48.720 --> 0:24:51.600
<v Speaker 7>Let's talk about Gaza because President Trump said that a

0:24:51.640 --> 0:24:54.040
<v Speaker 7>ceasfire could be insight this week or next week. What

0:24:54.160 --> 0:24:57.400
<v Speaker 7>you envision as the EU's role in supporting that ceasfire.

0:24:57.920 --> 0:25:00.720
<v Speaker 8>Well, we have been working very hard since the last

0:25:00.760 --> 0:25:04.280
<v Speaker 8>Foreign Affairs Council that we had in Brussels with these

0:25:04.320 --> 0:25:07.359
<v Speaker 8>reel is to really improve the situation on the ground

0:25:07.359 --> 0:25:10.320
<v Speaker 8>with the humanitarian aid for the people, so that the

0:25:10.359 --> 0:25:15.000
<v Speaker 8>situation would be better. We achieved an agreement on very

0:25:15.040 --> 0:25:18.640
<v Speaker 8>concrete terms, how many trucks will get in, how many

0:25:18.680 --> 0:25:23.879
<v Speaker 8>crossings will be opened, distribution points so that people would

0:25:24.680 --> 0:25:28.800
<v Speaker 8>receive help of water distribution for the Gazan people, so

0:25:28.920 --> 0:25:31.600
<v Speaker 8>waste management, a lot of a lot of issues. We

0:25:31.760 --> 0:25:35.240
<v Speaker 8>reached an agreement and we really need to see also

0:25:35.840 --> 0:25:40.399
<v Speaker 8>this agreement put in practice the implementation and I'm glad

0:25:40.480 --> 0:25:45.320
<v Speaker 8>to hear that already today there were improvements like fuel

0:25:45.680 --> 0:25:49.960
<v Speaker 8>getting to the hospitals and you know, the situation being

0:25:50.000 --> 0:25:50.840
<v Speaker 8>a bit improved.

0:25:50.960 --> 0:25:51.160
<v Speaker 1>Right.

0:25:51.520 --> 0:25:54.560
<v Speaker 7>Ukraine's intelligence says that Loos is prepared to stand up

0:25:54.560 --> 0:25:58.680
<v Speaker 7>to fifty troops to a place in Russia for mining operations.

0:25:59.000 --> 0:26:01.560
<v Speaker 7>Given that certain love is here in Asia, and to

0:26:01.600 --> 0:26:04.240
<v Speaker 7>what extent are you worried that he is here to

0:26:04.800 --> 0:26:07.600
<v Speaker 7>beef up recruitment for the war in Russia in Ukraine.

0:26:08.119 --> 0:26:12.119
<v Speaker 8>Well, of course Laos has denied this, and we will

0:26:12.160 --> 0:26:16.760
<v Speaker 8>have a meeting also with representatives from LAOS to ask

0:26:17.119 --> 0:26:20.800
<v Speaker 8>because we also give a lot of development aid to

0:26:21.119 --> 0:26:25.359
<v Speaker 8>Laos and they, you know, they are supporting Russia's war,

0:26:25.600 --> 0:26:29.040
<v Speaker 8>which is an existential threat to Europe. Then we have

0:26:29.200 --> 0:26:33.600
<v Speaker 8>to look into our arrangements. It just can't be that

0:26:34.119 --> 0:26:37.040
<v Speaker 8>getting you know, support from US and at the same

0:26:37.080 --> 0:26:38.520
<v Speaker 8>time undermining US.

0:26:38.880 --> 0:26:43.160
<v Speaker 7>Okay, just very quickly, we know that Miamar's junta has

0:26:43.200 --> 0:26:47.040
<v Speaker 7>been squarely under Moscow's orbit as well. The cup's chief

0:26:47.080 --> 0:26:50.480
<v Speaker 7>traveled to Russia and Belarus as well. Any insight as

0:26:50.520 --> 0:26:53.560
<v Speaker 7>to what sort of cooperation is underway that could support

0:26:53.600 --> 0:26:54.800
<v Speaker 7>Russia's war machine.

0:26:55.400 --> 0:26:58.920
<v Speaker 8>Well, of course we are worried about all these steps,

0:26:58.920 --> 0:27:01.199
<v Speaker 8>and it's clear if we look at the bigger picture

0:27:01.320 --> 0:27:05.560
<v Speaker 8>that these autocratic rulers are really teaming up, which is

0:27:05.840 --> 0:27:09.240
<v Speaker 8>dangerous for everybody. And that's why we really need to

0:27:09.320 --> 0:27:13.320
<v Speaker 8>stand up for the international law, international rules, face order

0:27:13.440 --> 0:27:17.320
<v Speaker 8>and defend it. With the countries that share the same values.

0:27:17.960 --> 0:27:19.200
<v Speaker 8>All right, thank you so much.

0:27:19.240 --> 0:27:22.080
<v Speaker 7>There was Kaya Kalas that e US top diplomat speaking

0:27:22.119 --> 0:27:24.440
<v Speaker 7>to be here at the qual Long for a Convention

0:27:24.600 --> 0:27:27.359
<v Speaker 7>center at the AS Foreign Minister's meeting.

0:27:37.320 --> 0:27:40.520
<v Speaker 2>Listenne Summers a child swap writing. Second quarter earnings calls

0:27:40.560 --> 0:27:43.600
<v Speaker 2>are critical to assess how companies are handling tariffs in

0:27:43.680 --> 0:27:47.000
<v Speaker 2>terms of pass through and or profit margin compression.

0:27:47.200 --> 0:27:47.959
<v Speaker 3>A place to say that.

0:27:47.960 --> 0:27:49.840
<v Speaker 2>Listeners back with us for more Listen and welcome back

0:27:49.880 --> 0:27:51.760
<v Speaker 2>to the program. We've got to pick up on down

0:27:51.760 --> 0:27:53.960
<v Speaker 2>to rare lines. They seem to have some clarity and

0:27:54.000 --> 0:27:56.280
<v Speaker 2>some confidence for the future. Do you think we'll see

0:27:56.320 --> 0:27:58.359
<v Speaker 2>a repeat of that through this earning season?

0:27:59.040 --> 0:28:01.600
<v Speaker 9>Well, John, I heard you earlier. I think you're absolutely

0:28:01.640 --> 0:28:04.760
<v Speaker 9>right that, certainly within the airline space, it's going to

0:28:04.800 --> 0:28:07.720
<v Speaker 9>be difficult for any other airlines that might have withdrawn

0:28:07.800 --> 0:28:12.520
<v Speaker 9>guidance or provided a really wide range or scenario analysis

0:28:12.800 --> 0:28:16.520
<v Speaker 9>to not narrow that in a little bit. But I

0:28:16.640 --> 0:28:20.160
<v Speaker 9>found the use of the word stable a little bit

0:28:20.359 --> 0:28:23.200
<v Speaker 9>odd or at odds with what has been a pretty

0:28:23.320 --> 0:28:28.520
<v Speaker 9>unstable backdrop, particularly from a tariff's perspective. So I think

0:28:29.280 --> 0:28:31.920
<v Speaker 9>I also heard you earlier. I think the passage of

0:28:32.040 --> 0:28:34.720
<v Speaker 9>the budget builds is good in the sense that you've

0:28:34.760 --> 0:28:38.840
<v Speaker 9>got that surety from a corporate tax extension standpoint, from

0:28:38.840 --> 0:28:43.280
<v Speaker 9>an expensing and depreciation standpoint, But it is still a

0:28:43.400 --> 0:28:46.200
<v Speaker 9>kind of whack a mole environment from a tariff perspective.

0:28:46.320 --> 0:28:50.880
<v Speaker 9>So I wouldn't describe the backdrop as stable broadly, Lazen.

0:28:51.200 --> 0:28:54.440
<v Speaker 6>Maybe not in the headline stance, but from an economic stance,

0:28:54.760 --> 0:28:57.320
<v Speaker 6>our consumer is getting as tired from all of the

0:28:57.360 --> 0:29:00.680
<v Speaker 6>headlines in the headline roulette as some of the trading parts.

0:29:00.240 --> 0:29:01.160
<v Speaker 3>Seem to be getting.

0:29:01.360 --> 0:29:03.920
<v Speaker 6>This idea that people are getting used to this environment

0:29:03.920 --> 0:29:06.640
<v Speaker 6>of uncertainty, looking at their paychecks, looking at the fact

0:29:06.680 --> 0:29:09.680
<v Speaker 6>that the economy keeps grinding along, and developing a level

0:29:09.720 --> 0:29:12.120
<v Speaker 6>of certainty in that well.

0:29:12.200 --> 0:29:15.640
<v Speaker 9>Except that, I think, Lisa, you pointed out earlier, we

0:29:16.040 --> 0:29:18.440
<v Speaker 9>have a bifurcation. I think we may be using the

0:29:18.560 --> 0:29:21.720
<v Speaker 9>K letter again to describe the backdrop, particularly as it

0:29:21.720 --> 0:29:24.840
<v Speaker 9>relates to the consumer, because you are seeing pressure on

0:29:24.880 --> 0:29:28.400
<v Speaker 9>some of the lower end consumers, inclusive of now that

0:29:28.440 --> 0:29:31.760
<v Speaker 9>there's no more moratorium on the reporting of student loan delinquencies.

0:29:32.160 --> 0:29:35.360
<v Speaker 9>They've shot through the roof that feeds into credit scores,

0:29:35.440 --> 0:29:39.320
<v Speaker 9>credit availability, access to other forms of loans. You see

0:29:39.320 --> 0:29:42.520
<v Speaker 9>it in the retail sales data that have been generally weaker.

0:29:42.880 --> 0:29:45.320
<v Speaker 9>The next report coming up in the next week is important.

0:29:45.640 --> 0:29:49.440
<v Speaker 9>You also saw the downward revision to Q one GDP.

0:29:50.120 --> 0:29:53.760
<v Speaker 9>A big, pretty hefty chunk of that was a consumption

0:29:54.440 --> 0:29:58.360
<v Speaker 9>revision lower. So I think there is still some resilience,

0:29:58.400 --> 0:30:01.800
<v Speaker 9>but it's more up the income spectrum. I think where

0:30:01.800 --> 0:30:05.760
<v Speaker 9>you're seeing the pressure most acutely is down the income spectrum.

0:30:05.800 --> 0:30:08.840
<v Speaker 9>Now to mention the fact that within inflation data, the

0:30:09.000 --> 0:30:13.760
<v Speaker 9>non discretionary components, the needs components. That's where inflation has

0:30:13.800 --> 0:30:17.000
<v Speaker 9>been stickiest on the high side and added pressure for

0:30:17.080 --> 0:30:21.000
<v Speaker 9>lower end consumers because more of their spending goes into

0:30:21.080 --> 0:30:22.800
<v Speaker 9>those needs buckets.

0:30:23.000 --> 0:30:26.080
<v Speaker 6>This really raises a sort of a deep question about

0:30:26.160 --> 0:30:29.560
<v Speaker 6>the stock market and the sort of cyclicals versus defensives

0:30:29.560 --> 0:30:32.000
<v Speaker 6>that we've been talking about, and what is defensive at

0:30:32.000 --> 0:30:34.000
<v Speaker 6>a time where the big tech names seem to be

0:30:34.040 --> 0:30:37.800
<v Speaker 6>in vulnerable to any potential changes in the broader economy.

0:30:37.880 --> 0:30:41.600
<v Speaker 6>I just wonder keen cyclicals rally on the heels of

0:30:41.720 --> 0:30:45.040
<v Speaker 6>just the high income consumer again and again, or are

0:30:45.080 --> 0:30:47.120
<v Speaker 6>you going to start to see what you're talking about,

0:30:47.120 --> 0:30:49.600
<v Speaker 6>that ke shaped economy play out in a much more

0:30:49.600 --> 0:30:51.719
<v Speaker 6>significant way in the upcoming earnings quarters.

0:30:52.760 --> 0:30:56.280
<v Speaker 9>Well, I think what I would guess what happened throughout

0:30:56.320 --> 0:30:58.800
<v Speaker 9>second quarter earning season is a bit of a continuation

0:30:58.960 --> 0:31:01.520
<v Speaker 9>of what we have seen in re and quarters, where

0:31:01.560 --> 0:31:05.840
<v Speaker 9>the beats don't get rewarded anywhere near to the same

0:31:05.920 --> 0:31:09.120
<v Speaker 9>degree that the misses get hit. So I think there

0:31:09.200 --> 0:31:12.080
<v Speaker 9>is still that sensitivity, but I do think we are

0:31:12.160 --> 0:31:14.680
<v Speaker 9>going to get more meat put on the bones in

0:31:14.760 --> 0:31:17.960
<v Speaker 9>terms of what the strategy is, what the pricing strategy.

0:31:18.000 --> 0:31:20.920
<v Speaker 9>We know that a lot of companies built up a

0:31:20.920 --> 0:31:24.200
<v Speaker 9>massive amount of inventories at a low cost basis insteadsibly

0:31:24.280 --> 0:31:30.520
<v Speaker 9>giving them an opportunity to kind of experiment with price increases.

0:31:30.600 --> 0:31:33.120
<v Speaker 9>So I think we're going to our analysts are going

0:31:33.160 --> 0:31:37.360
<v Speaker 9>to be asking pretty pointed questions about pricing strategy, about

0:31:37.800 --> 0:31:40.880
<v Speaker 9>profit margins. In terms of the cyclical ap performance, I mean,

0:31:40.960 --> 0:31:44.320
<v Speaker 9>industrials is by far the best performing sector this year,

0:31:44.400 --> 0:31:48.640
<v Speaker 9>up thirteen or fourteen percent, besting even technology and communication

0:31:48.920 --> 0:31:52.840
<v Speaker 9>services also at play here, and what's doing well ore

0:31:53.000 --> 0:31:57.200
<v Speaker 9>sectors and industries that have a high portion of their

0:31:57.360 --> 0:32:00.400
<v Speaker 9>revenue growth coming from overseas sources, and that's where weeker

0:32:00.480 --> 0:32:03.040
<v Speaker 9>dollar has come into play, and also why a sector

0:32:03.160 --> 0:32:06.360
<v Speaker 9>like tech is really pulling up the revisions ratio, the

0:32:06.400 --> 0:32:09.640
<v Speaker 9>positive revisions ratio. The weaker dollar has been a big

0:32:09.680 --> 0:32:10.640
<v Speaker 9>part of that, Liza.

0:32:10.760 --> 0:32:12.680
<v Speaker 5>When it comes to strategies, we're all aware of the

0:32:12.720 --> 0:32:15.400
<v Speaker 5>Trump put that was really prevalent as well in Trump's

0:32:15.440 --> 0:32:16.160
<v Speaker 5>first administration.

0:32:16.240 --> 0:32:18.400
<v Speaker 1>But you're pondering something new, the Trump call.

0:32:18.760 --> 0:32:19.480
<v Speaker 2>What is that?

0:32:20.440 --> 0:32:22.880
<v Speaker 9>Well, the notion, of course of the Trump put was

0:32:23.080 --> 0:32:25.520
<v Speaker 9>and we saw it come into play on April night,

0:32:25.640 --> 0:32:28.080
<v Speaker 9>that if there's enough weakness that kicks into the market.

0:32:28.080 --> 0:32:30.120
<v Speaker 9>In the case of that first week in April, it

0:32:30.160 --> 0:32:32.280
<v Speaker 9>wasn't just in the equity market. You saw the spike

0:32:32.320 --> 0:32:35.840
<v Speaker 9>and bond yields, you saw the crush and the dollar.

0:32:36.720 --> 0:32:40.920
<v Speaker 9>That combination sent a message to the administration woe, hence

0:32:40.960 --> 0:32:47.120
<v Speaker 9>the announcement of the ninety ish delay for the reciprocal tariffs.

0:32:47.240 --> 0:32:50.320
<v Speaker 9>But I think the open question that maybe we're getting

0:32:50.320 --> 0:32:52.440
<v Speaker 9>a little bit of an answer to is if you

0:32:52.520 --> 0:32:56.120
<v Speaker 9>get enough resilience in economic data, labor market data, you

0:32:56.240 --> 0:32:59.840
<v Speaker 9>don't start to see a move higher with any meaning

0:33:00.240 --> 0:33:03.840
<v Speaker 9>magnitude in the inflation data and the stock market trading

0:33:03.880 --> 0:33:06.920
<v Speaker 9>at all time highs? Does that behold in the administration

0:33:07.120 --> 0:33:10.240
<v Speaker 9>to sort of press forward with tariffs? So just the

0:33:10.720 --> 0:33:14.280
<v Speaker 9>opposite way to think about it from an optioned lingo.

0:33:14.120 --> 0:33:17.680
<v Speaker 2>Perspective raises big questions about August one Lazan as always

0:33:17.720 --> 0:33:20.560
<v Speaker 2>perfect framing of things. Lizanne sunders there a child swamp

0:33:20.560 --> 0:33:32.720
<v Speaker 2>on the latest in the equity market. Let's stick with

0:33:32.760 --> 0:33:36.120
<v Speaker 2>the US consumer Bank for America releasing its monthly Consumer Checkpoint,

0:33:36.280 --> 0:33:39.560
<v Speaker 2>highlighting ongoing softness into the summer months. The report finding

0:33:39.600 --> 0:33:43.440
<v Speaker 2>spending rebounded in June but didn't fully offset declines in

0:33:43.480 --> 0:33:46.240
<v Speaker 2>both April and May. Joining us now to discuss is

0:33:46.320 --> 0:33:49.320
<v Speaker 2>Liz Everett Chris Berkley, head of Bank for America Institute,

0:33:49.360 --> 0:33:50.120
<v Speaker 2>Let's got to see you.

0:33:50.200 --> 0:33:50.880
<v Speaker 3>Great to be here.

0:33:51.040 --> 0:33:52.680
<v Speaker 2>Let's just talk about where we are right now and

0:33:52.720 --> 0:33:54.400
<v Speaker 2>also where we've been over the last few months, because

0:33:54.400 --> 0:33:56.440
<v Speaker 2>this has been very confusing. We had this big pull

0:33:56.480 --> 0:33:58.880
<v Speaker 2>forward and now we feel like we've had some payback.

0:33:59.040 --> 0:33:59.760
<v Speaker 3>Where are we now?

0:34:00.160 --> 0:34:02.200
<v Speaker 1>So I think it depends on if we're looking at

0:34:02.200 --> 0:34:04.960
<v Speaker 1>services or if we're looking at retail. If we're looking

0:34:04.960 --> 0:34:08.280
<v Speaker 1>at retail and we're looking at durables, things like electronics,

0:34:08.320 --> 0:34:12.120
<v Speaker 1>things like furniture. We are still seeing spending kind of

0:34:12.160 --> 0:34:15.680
<v Speaker 1>decline in those categories because you've got the payback from

0:34:15.719 --> 0:34:18.520
<v Speaker 1>the tariff by ahead. But for the first time in

0:34:19.400 --> 0:34:22.279
<v Speaker 1>frankly a long time, we actually saw what drove the

0:34:22.280 --> 0:34:26.920
<v Speaker 1>consumer spending up in June was retail spending, and it

0:34:27.120 --> 0:34:30.160
<v Speaker 1>was in the you know, things like gas. Some of

0:34:30.160 --> 0:34:32.600
<v Speaker 1>that was pricing, but it was really broad based other

0:34:32.680 --> 0:34:36.440
<v Speaker 1>than things like electronics and furniture. But grocery spending was up.

0:34:36.480 --> 0:34:39.800
<v Speaker 1>General merchandise was up, clothing was up. That's what's driving

0:34:40.040 --> 0:34:45.600
<v Speaker 1>the spending. Interestingly, also services services spending was actually down,

0:34:45.800 --> 0:34:48.640
<v Speaker 1>just a little bit down about one tenths in June.

0:34:49.239 --> 0:34:52.640
<v Speaker 1>But what breaking that down People are pulling back on

0:34:52.680 --> 0:34:55.319
<v Speaker 1>discretionary on travel, and we can get into that because

0:34:55.320 --> 0:35:00.319
<v Speaker 1>you're gonna want me to scare the circle with delta, yes, right, yeah,

0:35:01.200 --> 0:35:05.720
<v Speaker 1>right away. So travel spending travel categories like airlines did decline.

0:35:06.040 --> 0:35:09.680
<v Speaker 1>But if you delve into what drives total spending, right,

0:35:09.880 --> 0:35:13.040
<v Speaker 1>it's the number of households that are spending, it's the

0:35:13.160 --> 0:35:16.319
<v Speaker 1>average transaction size, and it's the number of transactions they're

0:35:16.360 --> 0:35:19.160
<v Speaker 1>making a month, right, what we saw. When you break

0:35:19.239 --> 0:35:21.920
<v Speaker 1>that down, there are certain households, and we can get

0:35:21.960 --> 0:35:25.040
<v Speaker 1>into which ones, lower income households who are pulling back

0:35:25.160 --> 0:35:29.440
<v Speaker 1>completely from making purchases in travel if we look at

0:35:29.480 --> 0:35:33.080
<v Speaker 1>other categories, discrectionary categories like restaurants. On the other hand,

0:35:33.360 --> 0:35:37.600
<v Speaker 1>again same analysis, you're seeing fewer but some households pull

0:35:37.680 --> 0:35:38.240
<v Speaker 1>back completely.

0:35:38.360 --> 0:35:39.280
<v Speaker 3>So we have fewer.

0:35:39.080 --> 0:35:41.640
<v Speaker 1>Households making a transaction at all, but the people who

0:35:41.719 --> 0:35:44.760
<v Speaker 1>are still going out to eat are going out more often,

0:35:45.200 --> 0:35:48.239
<v Speaker 1>went out more often in June and paid more. So

0:35:48.719 --> 0:35:50.640
<v Speaker 1>you've got a little bit of a disconnect. And it's

0:35:50.719 --> 0:35:52.120
<v Speaker 1>kind of a tale of two cities.

0:35:52.160 --> 0:35:54.040
<v Speaker 6>We've been talking about the K shaped economy and it

0:35:54.120 --> 0:35:56.080
<v Speaker 6>seems to be just sort of widening the gap between

0:35:56.120 --> 0:35:58.279
<v Speaker 6>the haves and the have nots, and 're seeing people

0:35:58.320 --> 0:36:00.440
<v Speaker 6>who have the money to spend spend more and the

0:36:00.480 --> 0:36:03.239
<v Speaker 6>people who don't spend less and less. And I just

0:36:03.440 --> 0:36:06.160
<v Speaker 6>wonder if this is analogous to what we've seen over

0:36:06.200 --> 0:36:08.680
<v Speaker 6>the past few years, or if this is almost an

0:36:08.680 --> 0:36:12.239
<v Speaker 6>acceleration of that trend, if it feels unsustainable, if you

0:36:12.280 --> 0:36:15.399
<v Speaker 6>can give us a sense of historically what this trend

0:36:15.520 --> 0:36:16.160
<v Speaker 6>is heading.

0:36:15.920 --> 0:36:19.080
<v Speaker 1>Towards, so there is a disconnect, and I think the

0:36:19.239 --> 0:36:21.640
<v Speaker 1>best way to understand what's happening is to look at

0:36:21.640 --> 0:36:24.279
<v Speaker 1>the labor market. The labor market on its whole has

0:36:24.360 --> 0:36:28.680
<v Speaker 1>been very strong, but digging in again by income higher

0:36:28.760 --> 0:36:31.320
<v Speaker 1>income households. Last month, we look at the money actually

0:36:31.360 --> 0:36:34.480
<v Speaker 1>coming into accounts that accelerated third month in a row.

0:36:34.560 --> 0:36:39.120
<v Speaker 1>It's just shy of three percent. Lower income households actually

0:36:39.280 --> 0:36:41.600
<v Speaker 1>decelerated a little bit. They're still up, there's still up

0:36:41.640 --> 0:36:44.080
<v Speaker 1>one point six percent, but that's down from one point

0:36:44.080 --> 0:36:48.680
<v Speaker 1>eight percent. So you're seeing this difference. That being said,

0:36:48.840 --> 0:36:51.600
<v Speaker 1>we go back a year two years, what was happening

0:36:51.680 --> 0:36:55.600
<v Speaker 1>lower income households, we're having double digit income gains that's

0:36:55.760 --> 0:37:00.120
<v Speaker 1>come down, whereas hir income households is particularly you know,

0:37:00.920 --> 0:37:02.719
<v Speaker 1>a year eighteen months ago when we saw a lot

0:37:02.760 --> 0:37:07.759
<v Speaker 1>of tech layoffs, hiringcome households had negative wage growth. Now

0:37:07.840 --> 0:37:10.880
<v Speaker 1>they're coming up, and then they're also supported by hiringcome.

0:37:10.920 --> 0:37:13.920
<v Speaker 1>Households having more invested in the markets are also being

0:37:13.960 --> 0:37:15.719
<v Speaker 1>supported by that. So I think that's kind of the

0:37:16.320 --> 0:37:19.680
<v Speaker 1>explanation for why the consumers behaving the way that it is.

0:37:19.840 --> 0:37:21.719
<v Speaker 1>It comes down to the labor When you say lower

0:37:21.800 --> 0:37:25.000
<v Speaker 1>income households are pulling back. Yeah, what's the reasoning you

0:37:25.160 --> 0:37:27.239
<v Speaker 1>find behind it? Is it because their wages are not

0:37:27.360 --> 0:37:30.120
<v Speaker 1>keeping up with inflation? Or is it actually this concern

0:37:30.200 --> 0:37:35.239
<v Speaker 1>about policy in Washington, tariffs and the like. So one

0:37:35.239 --> 0:37:36.960
<v Speaker 1>of the things we do at Bank of American Students

0:37:37.000 --> 0:37:39.279
<v Speaker 1>we don't actually ask people what they think, because we

0:37:39.400 --> 0:37:41.000
<v Speaker 1>find that when they tell us what they're doing, it

0:37:41.040 --> 0:37:44.239
<v Speaker 1>doesn't necessarily align with what they say, So we look

0:37:44.280 --> 0:37:46.040
<v Speaker 1>at what they are actually doing. So I can't tell

0:37:46.040 --> 0:37:48.960
<v Speaker 1>you why they're doing it, specifically why they think they're

0:37:49.000 --> 0:37:53.279
<v Speaker 1>doing it, but I but what I can tell you

0:37:53.680 --> 0:37:56.719
<v Speaker 1>is that looking at the breakdown in where people are

0:37:56.800 --> 0:38:03.759
<v Speaker 1>spending non discretionary spending item rents, insurance, utilities, those are

0:38:03.920 --> 0:38:07.600
<v Speaker 1>growing faster than inflation. They're taking up a bigger piece

0:38:07.719 --> 0:38:10.680
<v Speaker 1>of people's budget. And now that wages are growing, they're

0:38:10.680 --> 0:38:14.120
<v Speaker 1>still growing, but growing more slowly, not keeping up. That's

0:38:14.120 --> 0:38:15.360
<v Speaker 1>where I think the disconnect is.

0:38:15.480 --> 0:38:18.080
<v Speaker 2>The refocus on necessities sort of seems to.

0:38:18.080 --> 0:38:21.840
<v Speaker 6>Be which doesn't speak well to their ability to withstand

0:38:21.960 --> 0:38:26.000
<v Speaker 6>any further increases, but also the idea that higher income

0:38:26.120 --> 0:38:28.839
<v Speaker 6>households are seeing an acceleration and income at the same

0:38:28.920 --> 0:38:30.960
<v Speaker 6>time you're seeing a deceleration and lower income that is

0:38:31.080 --> 0:38:33.800
<v Speaker 6>different though what we saw in the immediate post pandemic reality.

0:38:33.880 --> 0:38:36.000
<v Speaker 2>The case shaped economy has been a thing this morning,

0:38:36.040 --> 0:38:37.240
<v Speaker 2>hasn't it ites?

0:38:37.360 --> 0:38:39.239
<v Speaker 6>And I just wonder how sustainable that is. And it

0:38:39.600 --> 0:38:40.759
<v Speaker 6>is a political issue as well.

0:38:41.600 --> 0:38:45.120
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Sevenance podcast, bringing you the best

0:38:45.160 --> 0:38:48.239
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0:38:48.280 --> 0:38:51.200
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