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Speaker 3: Let's get forward guidance from Scott Croner with City Group
Speaker 3: US Equity Strategy. Scott, Right, now, Atlanta GDP is a
Speaker 3: stupid four point two percent. You know that number is
Speaker 3: going to come down. Governor Bailey's raising the growth forecast
Speaker 3: fractionally in the United Kingdom. Are we just flat out
Speaker 3: miss underestimating or just flat out underestimating growth?
Speaker 4: Well, it's a really good question.
Speaker 5: So let's see.
Speaker 6: So let's differentiate Wall Street from Main Street. Right, So
Speaker 6: we're watching the Fed, We're watching what's happening with central
Speaker 6: banks in Europe. I will say Tom that right now,
Speaker 6: you know, in our global equity market views, we've been
Speaker 6: more constructive on Europe than we have the US going
Speaker 6: into Q two.
Speaker 5: Why the setup there is a little.
Speaker 4: Bit easier to your point, you have improving macro trends,
Speaker 4: you have a central bank closer to pivoting, and analyst
Speaker 4: expectations tend to be quite low still, so the.
Speaker 6: Setup there from an equity market traditional perspective is actually
Speaker 6: pretty good, whereas here in the US we're still wrestling
Speaker 6: with FED timing, valuation.
Speaker 4: And so forth.
Speaker 7: So it doesn't change our view that we think the
Speaker 7: equity fundamentals are quite strong right now, but we're still
Speaker 7: looking for that macro kick in terms of a FED policy,
Speaker 7: and then how that translates into some of the fraying
Speaker 7: around the edges we're seeing, I think with the consumer
Speaker 7: to give.
Speaker 5: Us a little bit more of a.
Speaker 6: Falling rate tailwind that I think is still on the
Speaker 6: com but not quite there yet.
Speaker 8: Scott, can you talk to me a little bit about
Speaker 8: your approach to European equities. I know you're long US
Speaker 8: and Asia x China equities, but certainly with Asia x
Speaker 8: China you're doing it on a currency hedge basis. Talk
Speaker 8: to us about how you recommend US investors approach European
Speaker 8: equity should be outright or on a currency edge basis.
Speaker 7: You know, look at I tend to prefer it up outright.
Speaker 6: I think when we look at it, we try to
Speaker 6: take the currency discussion to a certain degree off the table.
Speaker 5: It's a little bit different when we talk about Japan.
Speaker 6: But I think as far as Europe goes right now,
Speaker 6: I know we're going to be paying attention to currency
Speaker 6: effects and interest rate differentials. But what we really want
Speaker 6: to hone on here, hone in on, is this nuance
Speaker 6: that the setup in Europe is a little bit closer
Speaker 6: to early cycle than we are in the US.
Speaker 8: So growth then, but you know, I just have to
Speaker 8: take you back here to the US. God, I mean,
Speaker 8: let's take a look at, Wow, what a pop by
Speaker 8: utilities of the last six weeks. Talk to me about
Speaker 8: these rate sensitive sectors. Financials of pop sensitive A guy
Speaker 8: like you looking at you till I'm a little sensitive.
Speaker 3: Are Indonesian repea and dominion.
Speaker 8: It's good, I like, But seriously, in all seriousness, got
Speaker 8: I mean, utilities have had some move here and it
Speaker 8: is the rate sensitive move here after what we've seen
Speaker 8: by the FED. Talk to us a little bit about
Speaker 8: real estate and the property sector. They definitely lagged. I
Speaker 8: think real estate's off seven plus percent this year. It's
Speaker 8: the only sector that's down on the air. Talk to
Speaker 8: us about US real estate.
Speaker 7: Okay.
Speaker 6: So what we did headed into Q two, we've we've
Speaker 6: made a couple of important calls. The first was that
Speaker 6: we were expecting a broader market pullback. We lowered tech
Speaker 6: from a long standing.
Speaker 5: Overweight to a market way. But what we did at
Speaker 5: the margin was begin to shift our industry group and
Speaker 5: sector focus to bias in favor of the those parts
Speaker 5: of the market that should benefit eventually from a change
Speaker 5: in FED direction.
Speaker 6: Okay, And essentially where that takes you is if the
Speaker 6: if the megacap growth tech part of US equities is
Speaker 6: more sensitive to ten year yields, which we believe is
Speaker 6: the case, the shorter duration part of equities, which is
Speaker 6: going to be utilities, it's going to be real estate, banks,
Speaker 6: most aspects of the consumer. That's where we want to
Speaker 6: begin to push our positioning in anticipation of this eventual
Speaker 6: peaking in FED direction.
Speaker 3: Scott, what do you see on debt issuance by corporations.
Speaker 3: I looked at some of the debt construction of some
Speaker 3: of our glorious generational tech companies. It is it's just
Speaker 3: stunning how few bonds, bills and notes they own. Are
Speaker 3: they going to start issuing?
Speaker 6: Yeah, look at sots of lots of discussion points here, Tom.
Speaker 6: The way we've been talking about this is that we
Speaker 6: have many unintended consequences of the hawkish.
Speaker 5: Feder of the past couple of years.
Speaker 6: And one of those unintended consequences is this meccacap growth
Speaker 6: cohort runs very low debt, very high free cash generation,
Speaker 6: and as many in many cases as running very high
Speaker 6: cash balances, they end up being a net beneficiary of
Speaker 6: higher FED rates.
Speaker 4: Okay.
Speaker 6: At the other extreme, you do have these sectors which
Speaker 6: are led by utilities and real estate where their debt
Speaker 6: maturity cliffs or walls if you will begin to hit
Speaker 6: this year, next year, into twenty twenty six.
Speaker 4: Okay.
Speaker 6: So the higher for longer FED narrative is going to
Speaker 6: be contrary to positioning there. But I do think that
Speaker 6: under the surface, in our view anyway, there are some
Speaker 6: reasons for the FED to begin to pivot among those
Speaker 6: is to avoid the risk of something else breaking that
Speaker 6: would probably be a function of higher rates for longer,
Speaker 6: particularly in that real estate cohort of the market.
Speaker 3: Skytt Kroner, thanks for getting us started this morning. He
Speaker 3: is with City Group. It's Sarah on our tour of Spain.
Speaker 3: She's like, what did I parachute into Sarah house with
Speaker 3: Wells Fargo here? And you know we're having fun this morning.
Speaker 3: But let's get serious here. One of the great screw
Speaker 3: ups post pandemic, and I don't blame anybody because it
Speaker 3: was a medical crisis, is growth has been better than
Speaker 3: anybody expected. Governor Bailey just mentioned that in the Bank
Speaker 3: of England Atlanta. GDP now is a four point two
Speaker 3: it's going to come down. I get that. Why is
Speaker 3: growth doing better than the consensus?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there's a lot of reasons. Is I
Speaker 1: think we underappreciated just how massive the fiscal support was,
Speaker 1: where if you combine the main seven packages, it was
Speaker 1: twenty five percent of GDP effectively, and so just has
Speaker 1: a much longer take than what we anticipated. And then
Speaker 1: I think also just how stimulative monetary policy was. I
Speaker 1: think it's actually provided a lot of insulation to the
Speaker 1: rate hikes that we've seen.
Speaker 3: On a partial derivative basis, the halves, as somebody said yesterday,
Speaker 3: those with assets on a partial derivative basis is the
Speaker 3: growth and success of the halves totally outweighed half of
Speaker 3: America flat on their back.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it has obscured that you do have
Speaker 1: a segment of the US that is struggling a lot
Speaker 1: more that we see it. In terms of first couple
Speaker 1: of years. The bottom part of the consumers actually did
Speaker 1: pretty well in terms of not only the physical support
Speaker 1: we previously mentioned, but also the tight jobs market really
Speaker 1: benefited those lower paying jobs used on the fastest wage growth. Well,
Speaker 1: now we're still adding a lot of low and paying jobs,
Speaker 1: but the wage growth in that sector has slowed markedly,
Speaker 1: and so you're not seeing the wage numbers keep up
Speaker 1: with inflation as much. And these are the consumers that
Speaker 1: aren't able to trade down. They can't skip the vac
Speaker 1: if you never took them in the first place. And
Speaker 1: so it's really been a squeeze on this, but it's
Speaker 1: been offset by the fact your big spends we're still
Speaker 1: doing well.
Speaker 3: We live vicariously through Damien. So it takes the vacations.
Speaker 8: For US well, Sarah, I find it interesting your response
Speaker 8: to Tom just there on why his growth stronger than
Speaker 8: we expect. It has to do with the money to spy,
Speaker 8: with the monetary base, with all the stimulus that the
Speaker 8: FED injected into the economy over the past few years
Speaker 8: since the pandemic. And you know, when I look at
Speaker 8: that and I think about that, I think about yesterday's QRARA,
Speaker 8: the quarterly refunding, and I think about, you know, the
Speaker 8: long end of the curve and the taper and all
Speaker 8: of the things that might well be suppressing yields. Do
Speaker 8: you see a possibility as the taper continues that the
Speaker 8: long end of the US curve could derail, could bear steepen.
Speaker 1: So we're still looking for long end rates to I think,
Speaker 1: move lower as we move through the year, and think
Speaker 1: that the yield curve will uninvert, but it's going to
Speaker 1: be more from seeing the short end rates go down faster.
Speaker 1: And so I think when ultimately, if we're getting a
Speaker 1: little bit better handle on inflation, not all the way
Speaker 1: back to two not all the way back to two percent,
Speaker 1: but at least some improvement there, I think just the
Speaker 1: prospect of FED using will help in terms.
Speaker 3: Of well, Damien just said there that Sarah pushed against folks.
Speaker 3: I'm sorry. It's part of the zeitgeist right now. Yeah,
Speaker 3: there's a whole school of thought outs there. Oops, what
Speaker 3: if yields pop out a little longer duration?
Speaker 8: Well, it seems like, you know, the FED to some
Speaker 8: extent is managing you know, the long end of the curve.
Speaker 8: I mean, we're not going to say there's yogur.
Speaker 3: Going on here in the US A true Is there
Speaker 3: any evidence that they are able to manage the long
Speaker 3: end of the curve?
Speaker 8: Absolutely not, And there's no evidence that they can do
Speaker 8: it today. I mean that's the real gist of it.
Speaker 8: But you know, nevertheless, we've seen some things in the
Speaker 8: market that are just tough to explain, like growth, I
Speaker 8: mean like again, you know, and inflation for that matter,
Speaker 8: not coming off as quickly as we otherwise expect. It's
Speaker 8: sort of two sides of the same coin. So it
Speaker 8: talkt to us a little bit about inflation. We got
Speaker 8: the CPI print coming next week. What's your focus on that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so looking very hard at court at the core,
Speaker 1: just given that you have had three months in a
Speaker 1: row of upside surprises, and we really need to see
Speaker 1: the core begin to downshift if you are going to
Speaker 1: keep even the potential of even a September.
Speaker 8: Cut the owner's equivalent rant.
Speaker 1: I think we'll see some moderation there. It's been stickier
Speaker 1: and it's been I think slower to see that downward trend.
Speaker 1: But we've already come off the highs. But I do
Speaker 1: think that there's further further to go as we move
Speaker 1: through the year. It's just a matter of the magnitude
Speaker 1: and timing I think has been tricky to pin down.
Speaker 1: But the direction I think pretty confident lower.
Speaker 8: Well, I think that's the real one, right, I mean,
Speaker 8: that's what the Fed's waiting for. And I think you know,
Speaker 8: if you just look at Steve England or at stand
Speaker 8: chart this morning, you know he's talking about the potential
Speaker 8: for oeer to fall in the second quarter this year,
Speaker 8: and that might be what Chair Powell is indeed hanging
Speaker 8: his hat on. I mean, what else could Shairpalell be
Speaker 8: hanging his hat on. In last week's you know meeting,
Speaker 8: he gave three scenarios about where the Fed's going to
Speaker 8: push rates, and all of them were either on hold
Speaker 8: or lower. So no one seems to be talking about hikes,
Speaker 8: but then when pressed in the presser, he didn't necessarily
Speaker 8: deny that people aren't talking about hikes on the committee.
Speaker 8: Talk to us a little bit about your takeaways from
Speaker 8: last week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think in ter obviously Powell put a
Speaker 1: dampener on the possibility of hikes. I mean, I think
Speaker 1: you can't ever completely rule them out, but it does
Speaker 1: seem like there's a very high bar in terms of
Speaker 1: whether the Fed would actually step back in. I think
Speaker 1: the more likely scenario is you just see the cuts
Speaker 1: keep getting pushed out. So I think if you do
Speaker 1: see inflation stick, your jobs market remain resilient. I think
Speaker 1: that's the more likely play, where they're not sure exactly
Speaker 1: how restrictive they are, but they can sit and wait
Speaker 1: longer to feel the effectsancy if there are longer legs.
Speaker 3: For business America listening across the nation right now, what's
Speaker 3: the animal spirit judge, where's nominal GDP twelve months forward?
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think it's it's still going to be
Speaker 1: pretty strong. So I'd say probably closer to four and
Speaker 1: a half. Four four and a half, you still have
Speaker 1: two and a half. If you still have two and
Speaker 1: a half or and a half inflation.
Speaker 3: Why are we so miserable with four and a half
Speaker 3: percent nominal GDP? The Knicks are winning and we've got
Speaker 3: four and a half percent nominal Explain.
Speaker 1: Knicks are winning, but the Hurricanes are downs to the Rangers.
Speaker 1: So that's why we're a little depressed in Carolina right now.
Speaker 3: The wonder Scarlett didn't show up today.
Speaker 8: And you know why we're depressed because the Knicks are
Speaker 8: winning and you can't afford a ticket.
Speaker 3: No swing is the only one. But continue what I
Speaker 3: think that Why does a nation feel so there's a
Speaker 3: weight upon them?
Speaker 1: I think it still is the inflation environment, where yes
Speaker 1: we've seen improvement in terms of the rate of growth,
Speaker 1: but prices are still roughly twenty percent higher than they
Speaker 1: were just four years ago, and it's still difficult to digest.
Speaker 1: Businesses and consumers are still having to think about their
Speaker 1: pricing decisions a lot more than they were accustomed to
Speaker 1: only a few years back, and so in some ways,
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter that real wages have kept up if
Speaker 1: it doesn't feel like you're growing in terms of your wealth.
Speaker 3: Fabulous, terrific brief. Thank you so much. Sarahaus with Wells,
Speaker 3: Fargo this morning, joining us now from Providence, Rhode Island.
Speaker 3: Professor Schiller is at Brown University. She's one of our
Speaker 3: most popular controversial guests. The right heights of the left
Speaker 3: hats are That's exactly how we want it at right now,
Speaker 3: Professor Schiller. I've got to look at the trial of
Speaker 3: the former president and something we've avoided, like the plague.
Speaker 3: Does it help or harm him to have these events
Speaker 3: going on right now?
Speaker 9: Well, it's all about getting out on the campaign trail
Speaker 9: and also raising money for the presidential campaign. And every
Speaker 9: day that he's in court and that the news media
Speaker 9: covers it, but still that he's actually not out on
Speaker 9: the campaign trail. And of course donors do they want
Speaker 9: to be associated with him. I'm talking about the really
Speaker 9: big money donors. They haven't really gone full in for
Speaker 9: Trump yet, and I think these trials are a distraction
Speaker 9: for them and for him.
Speaker 3: So okay, they haven't gone in full in, but the
Speaker 3: campaigns are coming up. I keep telling people that are
Speaker 3: removed from this. They said, don't be removed from it.
Speaker 3: It's a second week of May. It's coming quickly, isn't it.
Speaker 9: It should? But the RNC and the Trump campaigns still
Speaker 9: have a very serious money problem, Tom. You know, they're
Speaker 9: spending a lot of money on Trump's legal bills, and
Speaker 9: that's not stopping anytime soon. Even if these trials get delayed.
Speaker 9: The lawyers are still on the clock. And Trump has
Speaker 9: been brilliant in getting both fundraising from his donors but
Speaker 9: also the RNC to pay a lot of his bills,
Speaker 9: and that means they can't fund things like organize and
Speaker 9: get out the vote, help their county chairs, and help
Speaker 9: Senate candidates in swing states, and those two kinds of campaigns,
Speaker 9: the Senate campaigns, the presidential campaigns, are going to be
Speaker 9: crucial to either side's victory in November.
Speaker 8: Professor Schuller, I just curious to get your thoughts on sentiments.
Speaker 8: And when I say sentiments, I mean, you know, the
Speaker 8: resigning kind of belief is if you vote Democrat, you're
Speaker 8: voting against Israel. And I'm curious to hear your thoughts
Speaker 8: on that. I mean, is a vote for Biden a
Speaker 8: vote against Israel?
Speaker 9: Well, I mean, I think President Biden's record is actually
Speaker 9: quite supportive of Israel. But there is a limit for Biden,
Speaker 9: and he set that limit not only this week, but
Speaker 9: last week in limiting the actual shipment of particular kinds
Speaker 9: of ammunition and guns and bombs to Israel, saying listen,
Speaker 9: we can't sanction going into a civilian enclave and kill
Speaker 9: another fifteen twenty thousand people. I mean, that's not possible.
Speaker 9: But you know it's may. As Tom points out, Damien,
Speaker 9: you point out, it's May. The American voter is going
Speaker 9: to turn their attention truly to this choice in September,
Speaker 9: and by then we all hope that there are things
Speaker 9: are calmer between Israel and Palace on Gaza, and if
Speaker 9: that's true, then the attention will return to the things
Speaker 9: that are more conventional, like you know, the economy, but
Speaker 9: also Trump's prior record in office. And that's what you
Speaker 9: should expect to Stephen the Biden campaign in the late
Speaker 9: part of this campaign is to go after Trump and
Speaker 9: remind voters what it was like the first time.
Speaker 8: Professor Schuler just have to rephrase that question. Is a
Speaker 8: vote for the Republicans for Trump a vote for Israel?
Speaker 9: Well, if you look at the rhetoric of some of
Speaker 9: the most armed supporters today of Israel and the Republican
Speaker 9: Party in the House on you know, anti Semitism on
Speaker 9: combating anti Semitism just a couple of months ago. It's
Speaker 9: not consistent. So the Jewish community and the Jewish voters
Speaker 9: in America have to decide who they trust more over
Speaker 9: the long haul to be both pro Israel but also
Speaker 9: fight anti Semitism, not just abroad but at home. And
Speaker 9: I think the Republicans still have a little bit of
Speaker 9: work to do on that.
Speaker 8: And last question, I think you just hit the nail
Speaker 8: on the head here with what's going on in our
Speaker 8: university campuses. And you know, there's some talk about the
Speaker 8: tax exemption being repealed in the Republican administration for some
Speaker 8: of these higher Harvard mit I mean, you know, if
Speaker 8: they can't keep our students safe, should they indeed get
Speaker 8: the exemption? What are your thoughts there?
Speaker 9: I always think geographically and in terms of party locations,
Speaker 9: there are also wealthy schools with big endowments in southern
Speaker 9: Republican controlled states, so I think there might be an
Speaker 9: increase in the amount of tax. But you can see
Speaker 9: places like Duke for example, Rice, WashU and Missouri. These
Speaker 9: are all Republican states, and those presidents of those universities
Speaker 9: are going to be lobbing against any kind of increase
Speaker 9: in taxes on their endowment. So I don't think it
Speaker 9: will be as sweeping as people think will be, just
Speaker 9: because of geography and partisans.
Speaker 3: Wendy Shower, I don't want to go into the protests
Speaker 3: right now. We don't have time really to treat it
Speaker 3: fairly with your wonderful perspective, but just to simply compare
Speaker 3: and contrast, is there any analog to nineteen sixty eight
Speaker 3: within what we're seeing right now?
Speaker 9: Yes, Tom, if most people could remember in nineteen sixty eight,
Speaker 9: which most people can't now, I mean that's the issue
Speaker 9: is that we just don't know our history well enough.
Speaker 9: But certainly the fact that the Democrat Party's convention is
Speaker 9: in Chicago, there will be protests and there will be
Speaker 9: a police response, no doubt, really gives people of a
Speaker 9: certain age a lot of shutters to think that this
Speaker 9: will give just as it gave Richard Nixon the election
Speaker 9: in sixty eight, that this will give Donald Trump the election.
Speaker 9: And I don't discount that possibility. So they're trying to
Speaker 9: prepare for that as best they can. Remember. You and
Speaker 9: I both know people over the age of fifty five
Speaker 9: sixty they vote the biggest numbers proportionally, so they remember
Speaker 9: sixty eight. So this is a real challenge for the
Speaker 9: Democrat party coming this summer.
Speaker 3: You're the second person to bring us up in three days.
Speaker 3: And Wendy, let's go then to the media change. We
Speaker 3: don't have Dan ratheran black and white TV and Walter
Speaker 3: Cronkite having a conniption as Hunting and Brinkley lean back
Speaker 3: and taking the scene. Now it's instantaneous. How will that
Speaker 3: play out then in a beleaguered Chicago.
Speaker 9: Well, I mean when you think about the you know,
Speaker 9: Bull Connor and the canons on civil rights protesters, that
Speaker 9: was pretty immediate and that really swung the national sentiment.
Speaker 9: You can certainly see you already see them on independent voters.
Speaker 9: They don't like chaos, and the Democrats have been saying,
Speaker 9: don't elect Trump, it's chaos. Now the Democrats have to
Speaker 9: explain their own chaos to the key independent voters in
Speaker 9: swing states that'll give them or deny them the election.
Speaker 9: It's that group of voters, not the young people, that
Speaker 9: I think are the biggest threat to the Democrats in
Speaker 9: terms of vote losses.
Speaker 3: There'll be a quiz at the end. Professor Schulder thank
Speaker 3: you so much. I'll study for the quiz. Front pages
Speaker 3: Lisa Matella with a great list of.
Speaker 4: Stories we do.
Speaker 10: I'll start with the New York Times. This was a
Speaker 10: good one. It's a program that helps Harlem students build
Speaker 10: their wealth. So it's from the Harlem Children's Zone and
Speaker 10: they say they want to address the racial wealth grap
Speaker 10: So they're giving students, thousands of students that has charter
Speaker 10: schools in Harlem ten thousand dollars each to invest. They
Speaker 10: eventually want to take this program nationwide. So here here's
Speaker 10: that work. So money is going to be controlled by
Speaker 10: professional money managers. Students will only be able to get
Speaker 10: that full amount when they're twenty five years old. That's
Speaker 10: after they graduate high school. College also takes some financial
Speaker 10: literacy courses. The students who don't reach all those milestones,
Speaker 10: they'll still be able to get a part of the money,
Speaker 10: not all of it. But it can be used for
Speaker 10: wealth building purposes only things like a down payment on
Speaker 10: a home, continuing education, or a business investment.
Speaker 3: And what's great about this, Damian, and I can't say
Speaker 3: enough about how wrong I was about this. Boy does
Speaker 3: it work. We had a program at Bloomberg to bring
Speaker 3: Bloomberg terminals to colleges. Good morning, Sarah Yango on the
Speaker 3: West Coast. And after the third time where she laughed
Speaker 3: in my face and said, time this works, it was
Speaker 3: unbelievable how using the Bloomberg terminal and like the Harlem
Speaker 3: program engages these kids well at least.
Speaker 8: So what I find most interesting about that story is
Speaker 8: that professional money managers are going to be doing the managing.
Speaker 8: I mean, who's that going to be. It's going to
Speaker 8: be PTJ or you know somebody else. He's a little close. No,
Speaker 8: I'm just kidding. I'm just speculating. But now, that's a
Speaker 8: great program, and they do work work.
Speaker 3: Would you agree with me? The best part of it
Speaker 3: is they learn how to lose money.
Speaker 8: The best part of that, yeah, well you're learning how
Speaker 8: to lose money as an important lesson.
Speaker 3: I can let's buy her B and B. That worked
Speaker 3: out this morning. Next.
Speaker 10: Gosh, just just speaking of losing money, seriously, underwater home mortgages,
Speaker 10: they are starting to grow nationwider. Does that mean this
Speaker 10: is from Adam? So seriously underwater close to three percent
Speaker 10: of homes carry loan balances. At least twenty five percent
Speaker 10: more than their market value in the first few months
Speaker 10: of the year. So that's seriously So that's up to
Speaker 10: more than two and a half percent from the previous quarter.
Speaker 10: Places like Kentucky, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Arkansas. That is leading
Speaker 10: up the Southern states. One in every thirty seven homes
Speaker 10: in the US. What about the try stay the Tri
Speaker 10: state area not as bad, but it's more like the
Speaker 10: Southern states that are starting to find it find themselves
Speaker 10: in that situation.
Speaker 8: How does how does it clear your guess is as
Speaker 8: good as mind? Hopefully the regional banks down there don't
Speaker 8: have the same problems we had up here with CRA.
Speaker 3: I mean a lot of people are saying with commercial
Speaker 3: real estate, Okay, it's it's separate, it's distinct and all that.
Speaker 3: We had some good guests on that, but I don't.
Speaker 8: Well, they moved a lot of that risk away from
Speaker 8: the regional banks, you know, and into the hands of
Speaker 8: consumers and homeowners. Whether or not the banks have to
Speaker 8: get involved if things get bad remains to be seen.
Speaker 4: Next yep.
Speaker 10: And then you talked about the record breaking heat, so
Speaker 10: I want to kind of play off of that vacation ers.
Speaker 10: This from the Wall Street Journal they're actually changing up
Speaker 10: their summer vacation plans because of that record breaking heat.
Speaker 10: So they're moving away from places like you know, Paris,
Speaker 10: Pacific Northwest, and they're going to cooler places. So Damien,
Speaker 10: you have to change her. You have to change your vacation.
Speaker 10: You have to go to Norway and Austria's in Salzburg.
Speaker 3: I love.
Speaker 10: That's where more people are going, less intense summer, cooler temperature.
Speaker 8: You can thank my mother.
Speaker 10: So Norway, have you been?
Speaker 4: Have you?
Speaker 8: I've never been to Norway?
Speaker 10: Okay, So Norway, Sweden, Finland, Southampton, England. Those are some
Speaker 10: popular fair Banks, Alaska. How about Alaska.
Speaker 8: I've never been to Alaska. I'd love to do a
Speaker 8: fire and ice trap.
Speaker 3: I went to alb Wants. Norway is great. Helsinki.
Speaker 8: I can't say enough about see.
Speaker 10: I got to change up my routine, got to get
Speaker 10: there the park and go. Okay, if you're scared to
Speaker 10: quit your job, this is interesting. There's a company who
Speaker 10: you can hire to do it for you, to handle
Speaker 10: that awkward situation if you're ready to quit. Okay, this
Speaker 10: is actually happening in Japan. There's a company named Momori.
Speaker 10: It actually translates roughly to I've had it up to here.
Speaker 10: You can let me know if I'm writing, Damien. But
Speaker 10: clients are paying them seventy to one hundred and seventy
Speaker 10: five dollars to like avoid the confrontation that strain, like
Speaker 10: emotional strain, social awkwardness when you want to quit in person.
Speaker 10: And these resignation agencies where they're starting to grow, so
Speaker 10: there's more of them coming around. The larger ones say
Speaker 10: they process more than fifteen hundred cases each in April alone.
Speaker 10: That's so many people are quitting. The smaller ones about hundreds.
Speaker 10: But they're saying that they're running three times higher than
Speaker 10: last year, so it's happening more. And the people were
Speaker 10: quitting more, actually not the veterans, but they are the
Speaker 10: new grads that are quitting more.
Speaker 8: Tom, have you ever had a lay someone off? Well,
Speaker 8: you know, I don't think I have, you know, I mean,
Speaker 8: I don't think I have the stomach to do it.
Speaker 8: I mean, I may I may be a client.
Speaker 10: You may be.
Speaker 3: And my father changed in the week when he had
Speaker 3: to let people go. It was I remember, he just
Speaker 3: flat out changed. It's Damien's this question is really really important.
Speaker 8: If You've been out there before and unemployed. You know
Speaker 8: how it is. You know, it's a real tough thing
Speaker 8: to do.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Lisa Matero, thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciate this.
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