WEBVTT - Investors Gearing for Inflation Data as US Issues Israel Warning 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.560 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.960 with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.119 the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.520 can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:31.280 Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:34.320 mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:39.000 headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.920 or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:46.240 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:48.880 Let's get forward guidance from Scott Croner with City Group 0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:53.400 US Equity Strategy. Scott, Right, now, Atlanta GDP is a 0:00:53.440 --> 0:00:55.840 stupid four point two percent. You know that number is 0:00:55.840 --> 0:00:59.200 going to come down. Governor Bailey's raising the growth forecast 0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:02.520 fractionally in the United Kingdom. Are we just flat out 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:07.760 miss underestimating or just flat out underestimating growth? 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:09.959 Well, it's a really good question. 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:11.400 So let's see. 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:14.800 So let's differentiate Wall Street from Main Street. Right, So 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:17.720 we're watching the Fed, We're watching what's happening with central 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:21.080 banks in Europe. I will say Tom that right now, 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:26.040 you know, in our global equity market views, we've been 0:01:26.200 --> 0:01:29.280 more constructive on Europe than we have the US going 0:01:29.280 --> 0:01:30.080 into Q two. 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:32.880 Why the setup there is a little. 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:36.759 Bit easier to your point, you have improving macro trends, 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:40.840 you have a central bank closer to pivoting, and analyst 0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:44.560 expectations tend to be quite low still, so the. 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:48.080 Setup there from an equity market traditional perspective is actually 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:51.360 pretty good, whereas here in the US we're still wrestling 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:54.320 with FED timing, valuation. 0:01:53.960 --> 0:01:54.640 And so forth. 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:58.120 So it doesn't change our view that we think the 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:01.600 equity fundamentals are quite strong right now, but we're still 0:02:01.600 --> 0:02:05.480 looking for that macro kick in terms of a FED policy, 0:02:05.680 --> 0:02:08.440 and then how that translates into some of the fraying 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:11.680 around the edges we're seeing, I think with the consumer 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:13.200 to give. 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:14.840 Us a little bit more of a. 0:02:14.720 --> 0:02:18.240 Falling rate tailwind that I think is still on the 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:19.600 com but not quite there yet. 0:02:19.720 --> 0:02:21.359 Scott, can you talk to me a little bit about 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:24.160 your approach to European equities. I know you're long US 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:27.080 and Asia x China equities, but certainly with Asia x 0:02:27.160 --> 0:02:29.799 China you're doing it on a currency hedge basis. Talk 0:02:29.840 --> 0:02:33.280 to us about how you recommend US investors approach European 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:35.760 equity should be outright or on a currency edge basis. 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:39.320 You know, look at I tend to prefer it up outright. 0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:41.240 I think when we look at it, we try to 0:02:41.280 --> 0:02:44.359 take the currency discussion to a certain degree off the table. 0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:46.519 It's a little bit different when we talk about Japan. 0:02:46.919 --> 0:02:49.560 But I think as far as Europe goes right now, 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:51.920 I know we're going to be paying attention to currency 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:55.000 effects and interest rate differentials. But what we really want 0:02:55.040 --> 0:02:58.480 to hone on here, hone in on, is this nuance 0:02:58.600 --> 0:03:02.080 that the setup in Europe is a little bit closer 0:03:02.120 --> 0:03:04.360 to early cycle than we are in the US. 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:06.320 So growth then, but you know, I just have to 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:08.079 take you back here to the US. God, I mean, 0:03:08.160 --> 0:03:10.480 let's take a look at, Wow, what a pop by 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:13.200 utilities of the last six weeks. Talk to me about 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:16.480 these rate sensitive sectors. Financials of pop sensitive A guy 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:18.600 like you looking at you till I'm a little sensitive. 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:22.320 Are Indonesian repea and dominion. 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:25.560 It's good, I like, But seriously, in all seriousness, got 0:03:25.560 --> 0:03:27.320 I mean, utilities have had some move here and it 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:29.760 is the rate sensitive move here after what we've seen 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:31.240 by the FED. Talk to us a little bit about 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:33.519 real estate and the property sector. They definitely lagged. I 0:03:33.560 --> 0:03:35.840 think real estate's off seven plus percent this year. It's 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:37.920 the only sector that's down on the air. Talk to 0:03:37.960 --> 0:03:38.960 us about US real estate. 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:39.560 Okay. 0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:42.760 So what we did headed into Q two, we've we've 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:45.600 made a couple of important calls. The first was that 0:03:45.640 --> 0:03:48.800 we were expecting a broader market pullback. We lowered tech 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:50.360 from a long standing. 0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:52.720 Overweight to a market way. But what we did at 0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:56.480 the margin was begin to shift our industry group and 0:03:56.680 --> 0:04:00.600 sector focus to bias in favor of the those parts 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:04.600 of the market that should benefit eventually from a change 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:05.720 in FED direction. 0:04:06.040 --> 0:04:10.280 Okay, And essentially where that takes you is if the 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:14.480 if the megacap growth tech part of US equities is 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:17.479 more sensitive to ten year yields, which we believe is 0:04:17.480 --> 0:04:21.240 the case, the shorter duration part of equities, which is 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:25.200 going to be utilities, it's going to be real estate, banks, 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:28.960 most aspects of the consumer. That's where we want to 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:33.600 begin to push our positioning in anticipation of this eventual 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:35.920 peaking in FED direction. 0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:39.160 Scott, what do you see on debt issuance by corporations. 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:42.400 I looked at some of the debt construction of some 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:47.039 of our glorious generational tech companies. It is it's just 0:04:47.279 --> 0:04:51.200 stunning how few bonds, bills and notes they own. Are 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:52.400 they going to start issuing? 0:04:53.880 --> 0:04:58.120 Yeah, look at sots of lots of discussion points here, Tom. 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:00.400 The way we've been talking about this is that we 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:03.760 have many unintended consequences of the hawkish. 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:05.680 Feder of the past couple of years. 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:10.640 And one of those unintended consequences is this meccacap growth 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:14.480 cohort runs very low debt, very high free cash generation, 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:17.559 and as many in many cases as running very high 0:05:17.560 --> 0:05:21.240 cash balances, they end up being a net beneficiary of 0:05:21.640 --> 0:05:22.599 higher FED rates. 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:23.120 Okay. 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:26.279 At the other extreme, you do have these sectors which 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:30.159 are led by utilities and real estate where their debt 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:34.560 maturity cliffs or walls if you will begin to hit 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:37.080 this year, next year, into twenty twenty six. 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:37.920 Okay. 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:42.760 So the higher for longer FED narrative is going to 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:46.160 be contrary to positioning there. But I do think that 0:05:46.400 --> 0:05:49.840 under the surface, in our view anyway, there are some 0:05:49.960 --> 0:05:53.039 reasons for the FED to begin to pivot among those 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:56.160 is to avoid the risk of something else breaking that 0:05:56.200 --> 0:05:59.000 would probably be a function of higher rates for longer, 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:01.599 particularly in that real estate cohort of the market. 0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:04.120 Skytt Kroner, thanks for getting us started this morning. He 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:18.159 is with City Group. It's Sarah on our tour of Spain. 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:21.160 She's like, what did I parachute into Sarah house with 0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:24.000 Wells Fargo here? And you know we're having fun this morning. 0:06:24.040 --> 0:06:27.640 But let's get serious here. One of the great screw 0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:30.240 ups post pandemic, and I don't blame anybody because it 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:33.640 was a medical crisis, is growth has been better than 0:06:33.760 --> 0:06:36.960 anybody expected. Governor Bailey just mentioned that in the Bank 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:40.280 of England Atlanta. GDP now is a four point two 0:06:40.320 --> 0:06:43.520 it's going to come down. I get that. Why is 0:06:43.600 --> 0:06:46.560 growth doing better than the consensus? 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:48.880 Yeah, I think there's a lot of reasons. Is I 0:06:48.880 --> 0:06:52.760 think we underappreciated just how massive the fiscal support was, 0:06:52.880 --> 0:06:55.479 where if you combine the main seven packages, it was 0:06:55.520 --> 0:06:59.160 twenty five percent of GDP effectively, and so just has 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:01.960 a much longer take than what we anticipated. And then 0:07:02.000 --> 0:07:05.600 I think also just how stimulative monetary policy was. I 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:08.080 think it's actually provided a lot of insulation to the 0:07:08.640 --> 0:07:09.679 rate hikes that we've seen. 0:07:09.840 --> 0:07:14.440 On a partial derivative basis, the halves, as somebody said yesterday, 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:19.520 those with assets on a partial derivative basis is the 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:24.240 growth and success of the halves totally outweighed half of 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:25.680 America flat on their back. 0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:28.880 Yeah, I think it has obscured that you do have 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:31.240 a segment of the US that is struggling a lot 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:34.640 more that we see it. In terms of first couple 0:07:34.640 --> 0:07:37.800 of years. The bottom part of the consumers actually did 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:40.280 pretty well in terms of not only the physical support 0:07:40.280 --> 0:07:43.240 we previously mentioned, but also the tight jobs market really 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:47.280 benefited those lower paying jobs used on the fastest wage growth. Well, 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:49.840 now we're still adding a lot of low and paying jobs, 0:07:50.000 --> 0:07:52.840 but the wage growth in that sector has slowed markedly, 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:56.320 and so you're not seeing the wage numbers keep up 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:58.160 with inflation as much. And these are the consumers that 0:07:58.160 --> 0:07:59.920 aren't able to trade down. They can't skip the vac 0:08:00.320 --> 0:08:02.040 if you never took them in the first place. And 0:08:02.040 --> 0:08:04.160 so it's really been a squeeze on this, but it's 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:06.440 been offset by the fact your big spends we're still 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:06.960 doing well. 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:11.680 We live vicariously through Damien. So it takes the vacations. 0:08:11.040 --> 0:08:13.520 For US well, Sarah, I find it interesting your response 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:15.560 to Tom just there on why his growth stronger than 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:17.680 we expect. It has to do with the money to spy, 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:19.920 with the monetary base, with all the stimulus that the 0:08:19.920 --> 0:08:22.080 FED injected into the economy over the past few years 0:08:22.080 --> 0:08:23.640 since the pandemic. And you know, when I look at 0:08:23.640 --> 0:08:26.240 that and I think about that, I think about yesterday's QRARA, 0:08:26.400 --> 0:08:29.000 the quarterly refunding, and I think about, you know, the 0:08:29.040 --> 0:08:31.400 long end of the curve and the taper and all 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:34.640 of the things that might well be suppressing yields. Do 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:37.120 you see a possibility as the taper continues that the 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:40.440 long end of the US curve could derail, could bear steepen. 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:43.360 So we're still looking for long end rates to I think, 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:46.080 move lower as we move through the year, and think 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:48.280 that the yield curve will uninvert, but it's going to 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:51.760 be more from seeing the short end rates go down faster. 0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:55.360 And so I think when ultimately, if we're getting a 0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:57.320 little bit better handle on inflation, not all the way 0:08:57.320 --> 0:08:59.080 back to two not all the way back to two percent, 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:01.080 but at least some improvement there, I think just the 0:09:01.120 --> 0:09:03.120 prospect of FED using will help in terms. 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:05.720 Of well, Damien just said there that Sarah pushed against folks. 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:07.960 I'm sorry. It's part of the zeitgeist right now. Yeah, 0:09:08.000 --> 0:09:11.319 there's a whole school of thought outs there. Oops, what 0:09:11.360 --> 0:09:13.600 if yields pop out a little longer duration? 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:15.240 Well, it seems like, you know, the FED to some 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:17.560 extent is managing you know, the long end of the curve. 0:09:17.600 --> 0:09:19.160 I mean, we're not going to say there's yogur. 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:21.200 Going on here in the US A true Is there 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:24.199 any evidence that they are able to manage the long 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:24.760 end of the curve? 0:09:24.800 --> 0:09:26.559 Absolutely not, And there's no evidence that they can do 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:28.200 it today. I mean that's the real gist of it. 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:30.319 But you know, nevertheless, we've seen some things in the 0:09:30.360 --> 0:09:32.480 market that are just tough to explain, like growth, I 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:34.880 mean like again, you know, and inflation for that matter, 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:36.839 not coming off as quickly as we otherwise expect. It's 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:38.600 sort of two sides of the same coin. So it 0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:40.160 talkt to us a little bit about inflation. We got 0:09:40.160 --> 0:09:43.040 the CPI print coming next week. What's your focus on that. 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:46.720 Yeah, so looking very hard at court at the core, 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:48.599 just given that you have had three months in a 0:09:48.679 --> 0:09:51.560 row of upside surprises, and we really need to see 0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:53.520 the core begin to downshift if you are going to 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:56.240 keep even the potential of even a September. 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:57.680 Cut the owner's equivalent rant. 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:01.760 I think we'll see some moderation there. It's been stickier 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:04.679 and it's been I think slower to see that downward trend. 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:06.920 But we've already come off the highs. But I do 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:08.800 think that there's further further to go as we move 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:11.520 through the year. It's just a matter of the magnitude 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:14.120 and timing I think has been tricky to pin down. 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:17.120 But the direction I think pretty confident lower. 0:10:16.960 --> 0:10:18.320 Well, I think that's the real one, right, I mean, 0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:19.960 that's what the Fed's waiting for. And I think you know, 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:21.640 if you just look at Steve England or at stand 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:23.720 chart this morning, you know he's talking about the potential 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:25.559 for oeer to fall in the second quarter this year, 0:10:25.600 --> 0:10:27.959 and that might be what Chair Powell is indeed hanging 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:30.160 his hat on. I mean, what else could Shairpalell be 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:32.560 hanging his hat on. In last week's you know meeting, 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:35.240 he gave three scenarios about where the Fed's going to 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:37.600 push rates, and all of them were either on hold 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:39.880 or lower. So no one seems to be talking about hikes, 0:10:39.880 --> 0:10:42.720 but then when pressed in the presser, he didn't necessarily 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:45.200 deny that people aren't talking about hikes on the committee. 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:46.920 Talk to us a little bit about your takeaways from 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:47.480 last week. 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:50.920 Yeah, so I think in ter obviously Powell put a 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:53.079 dampener on the possibility of hikes. I mean, I think 0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:55.160 you can't ever completely rule them out, but it does 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:57.839 seem like there's a very high bar in terms of 0:10:57.960 --> 0:10:59.920 whether the Fed would actually step back in. I think 0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:03.120 the more likely scenario is you just see the cuts 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:06.480 keep getting pushed out. So I think if you do 0:11:06.559 --> 0:11:09.800 see inflation stick, your jobs market remain resilient. I think 0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:12.360 that's the more likely play, where they're not sure exactly 0:11:12.360 --> 0:11:14.840 how restrictive they are, but they can sit and wait 0:11:14.880 --> 0:11:18.520 longer to feel the effectsancy if there are longer legs. 0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:22.040 For business America listening across the nation right now, what's 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:25.880 the animal spirit judge, where's nominal GDP twelve months forward? 0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:27.920 Yeah, so I think it's it's still going to be 0:11:27.960 --> 0:11:31.679 pretty strong. So I'd say probably closer to four and 0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:33.720 a half. Four four and a half, you still have 0:11:33.760 --> 0:11:35.520 two and a half. If you still have two and 0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:38.120 a half or and a half inflation. 0:11:38.840 --> 0:11:41.319 Why are we so miserable with four and a half 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:45.200 percent nominal GDP? The Knicks are winning and we've got 0:11:45.280 --> 0:11:47.880 four and a half percent nominal Explain. 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:52.560 Knicks are winning, but the Hurricanes are downs to the Rangers. 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:54.800 So that's why we're a little depressed in Carolina right now. 0:11:55.000 --> 0:11:56.720 The wonder Scarlett didn't show up today. 0:11:56.720 --> 0:11:58.160 And you know why we're depressed because the Knicks are 0:11:58.200 --> 0:11:59.680 winning and you can't afford a ticket. 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:02.520 No swing is the only one. But continue what I 0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:06.080 think that Why does a nation feel so there's a 0:12:06.120 --> 0:12:07.080 weight upon them? 0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:10.160 I think it still is the inflation environment, where yes 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:12.000 we've seen improvement in terms of the rate of growth, 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:14.840 but prices are still roughly twenty percent higher than they 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:18.040 were just four years ago, and it's still difficult to digest. 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:20.640 Businesses and consumers are still having to think about their 0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:23.880 pricing decisions a lot more than they were accustomed to 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:26.480 only a few years back, and so in some ways, 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:29.280 it doesn't matter that real wages have kept up if 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:32.600 it doesn't feel like you're growing in terms of your wealth. 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:35.480 Fabulous, terrific brief. Thank you so much. Sarahaus with Wells, 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:43.199 Fargo this morning, joining us now from Providence, Rhode Island. 0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:46.839 Professor Schiller is at Brown University. She's one of our 0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:49.840 most popular controversial guests. The right heights of the left 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:53.360 hats are That's exactly how we want it at right now, 0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:55.920 Professor Schiller. I've got to look at the trial of 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:59.000 the former president and something we've avoided, like the plague. 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:03.440 Does it help or harm him to have these events 0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:04.680 going on right now? 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:08.120 Well, it's all about getting out on the campaign trail 0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:11.760 and also raising money for the presidential campaign. And every 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:15.319 day that he's in court and that the news media 0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:18.000 covers it, but still that he's actually not out on 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:20.959 the campaign trail. And of course donors do they want 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:23.360 to be associated with him. I'm talking about the really 0:13:23.400 --> 0:13:26.560 big money donors. They haven't really gone full in for 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:29.680 Trump yet, and I think these trials are a distraction 0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:30.920 for them and for him. 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:34.080 So okay, they haven't gone in full in, but the 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:36.920 campaigns are coming up. I keep telling people that are 0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:39.439 removed from this. They said, don't be removed from it. 0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:44.240 It's a second week of May. It's coming quickly, isn't it. 0:13:44.240 --> 0:13:47.160 It should? But the RNC and the Trump campaigns still 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:50.199 have a very serious money problem, Tom. You know, they're 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:53.360 spending a lot of money on Trump's legal bills, and 0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:57.000 that's not stopping anytime soon. Even if these trials get delayed. 0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.839 The lawyers are still on the clock. And Trump has 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:03.680 been brilliant in getting both fundraising from his donors but 0:14:03.760 --> 0:14:06.959 also the RNC to pay a lot of his bills, 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:09.760 and that means they can't fund things like organize and 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:13.200 get out the vote, help their county chairs, and help 0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:17.360 Senate candidates in swing states, and those two kinds of campaigns, 0:14:17.400 --> 0:14:19.720 the Senate campaigns, the presidential campaigns, are going to be 0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:22.800 crucial to either side's victory in November. 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.960 Professor Schuller, I just curious to get your thoughts on sentiments. 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:27.840 And when I say sentiments, I mean, you know, the 0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:31.200 resigning kind of belief is if you vote Democrat, you're 0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:34.280 voting against Israel. And I'm curious to hear your thoughts 0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:36.440 on that. I mean, is a vote for Biden a 0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:38.120 vote against Israel? 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:41.400 Well, I mean, I think President Biden's record is actually 0:14:41.480 --> 0:14:45.400 quite supportive of Israel. But there is a limit for Biden, 0:14:45.440 --> 0:14:47.880 and he set that limit not only this week, but 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:51.880 last week in limiting the actual shipment of particular kinds 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:55.600 of ammunition and guns and bombs to Israel, saying listen, 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:59.960 we can't sanction going into a civilian enclave and kill 0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:03.640 another fifteen twenty thousand people. I mean, that's not possible. 0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:06.240 But you know it's may. As Tom points out, Damien, 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:09.200 you point out, it's May. The American voter is going 0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:13.080 to turn their attention truly to this choice in September, 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:16.000 and by then we all hope that there are things 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:19.600 are calmer between Israel and Palace on Gaza, and if 0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:22.320 that's true, then the attention will return to the things 0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:25.480 that are more conventional, like you know, the economy, but 0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:28.480 also Trump's prior record in office. And that's what you 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:31.000 should expect to Stephen the Biden campaign in the late 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:33.400 part of this campaign is to go after Trump and 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:35.640 remind voters what it was like the first time. 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.920 Professor Schuler just have to rephrase that question. Is a 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:43.240 vote for the Republicans for Trump a vote for Israel? 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:46.120 Well, if you look at the rhetoric of some of 0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:49.120 the most armed supporters today of Israel and the Republican 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.800 Party in the House on you know, anti Semitism on 0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:54.960 combating anti Semitism just a couple of months ago. It's 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:58.040 not consistent. So the Jewish community and the Jewish voters 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:00.800 in America have to decide who they trust more over 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:04.280 the long haul to be both pro Israel but also 0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:08.000 fight anti Semitism, not just abroad but at home. And 0:16:08.080 --> 0:16:09.640 I think the Republicans still have a little bit of 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:10.280 work to do on that. 0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:12.880 And last question, I think you just hit the nail 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:14.200 on the head here with what's going on in our 0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:17.280 university campuses. And you know, there's some talk about the 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:20.200 tax exemption being repealed in the Republican administration for some 0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:24.760 of these higher Harvard mit I mean, you know, if 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:26.960 they can't keep our students safe, should they indeed get 0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:28.600 the exemption? What are your thoughts there? 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:33.840 I always think geographically and in terms of party locations, 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:37.440 there are also wealthy schools with big endowments in southern 0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:40.760 Republican controlled states, so I think there might be an 0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:43.480 increase in the amount of tax. But you can see 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:48.400 places like Duke for example, Rice, WashU and Missouri. These 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:51.640 are all Republican states, and those presidents of those universities 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:53.680 are going to be lobbing against any kind of increase 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:56.000 in taxes on their endowment. So I don't think it 0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:58.520 will be as sweeping as people think will be, just 0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:00.360 because of geography and partisans. 0:17:00.520 --> 0:17:03.000 Wendy Shower, I don't want to go into the protests 0:17:03.080 --> 0:17:05.399 right now. We don't have time really to treat it 0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:09.320 fairly with your wonderful perspective, but just to simply compare 0:17:09.359 --> 0:17:14.280 and contrast, is there any analog to nineteen sixty eight 0:17:14.400 --> 0:17:15.880 within what we're seeing right now? 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:20.119 Yes, Tom, if most people could remember in nineteen sixty eight, 0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:22.959 which most people can't now, I mean that's the issue 0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:25.280 is that we just don't know our history well enough. 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:28.520 But certainly the fact that the Democrat Party's convention is 0:17:28.520 --> 0:17:31.440 in Chicago, there will be protests and there will be 0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:34.679 a police response, no doubt, really gives people of a 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:37.680 certain age a lot of shutters to think that this 0:17:37.760 --> 0:17:40.000 will give just as it gave Richard Nixon the election 0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:42.560 in sixty eight, that this will give Donald Trump the election. 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:45.879 And I don't discount that possibility. So they're trying to 0:17:45.920 --> 0:17:48.439 prepare for that as best they can. Remember. You and 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:50.920 I both know people over the age of fifty five 0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:54.600 sixty they vote the biggest numbers proportionally, so they remember 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:57.080 sixty eight. So this is a real challenge for the 0:17:57.119 --> 0:17:58.480 Democrat party coming this summer. 0:17:58.520 --> 0:18:01.560 You're the second person to bring us up in three days. 0:18:01.880 --> 0:18:04.520 And Wendy, let's go then to the media change. We 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:07.680 don't have Dan ratheran black and white TV and Walter 0:18:07.760 --> 0:18:11.280 Cronkite having a conniption as Hunting and Brinkley lean back 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:15.119 and taking the scene. Now it's instantaneous. How will that 0:18:15.160 --> 0:18:17.720 play out then in a beleaguered Chicago. 0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:20.720 Well, I mean when you think about the you know, 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:23.560 Bull Connor and the canons on civil rights protesters, that 0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:26.920 was pretty immediate and that really swung the national sentiment. 0:18:27.480 --> 0:18:30.280 You can certainly see you already see them on independent voters. 0:18:30.480 --> 0:18:33.000 They don't like chaos, and the Democrats have been saying, 0:18:33.040 --> 0:18:36.159 don't elect Trump, it's chaos. Now the Democrats have to 0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:39.280 explain their own chaos to the key independent voters in 0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:42.520 swing states that'll give them or deny them the election. 0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:45.960 It's that group of voters, not the young people, that 0:18:46.040 --> 0:18:48.119 I think are the biggest threat to the Democrats in 0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:49.240 terms of vote losses. 0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:51.920 There'll be a quiz at the end. Professor Schulder thank 0:18:51.960 --> 0:19:04.879 you so much. I'll study for the quiz. Front pages 0:19:05.280 --> 0:19:07.120 Lisa Matella with a great list of. 0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:07.879 Stories we do. 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:09.480 I'll start with the New York Times. This was a 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:12.719 good one. It's a program that helps Harlem students build 0:19:12.760 --> 0:19:15.800 their wealth. So it's from the Harlem Children's Zone and 0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:18.440 they say they want to address the racial wealth grap 0:19:18.520 --> 0:19:21.120 So they're giving students, thousands of students that has charter 0:19:21.200 --> 0:19:25.080 schools in Harlem ten thousand dollars each to invest. They 0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:28.080 eventually want to take this program nationwide. So here here's 0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:29.919 that work. So money is going to be controlled by 0:19:30.000 --> 0:19:33.440 professional money managers. Students will only be able to get 0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:36.560