1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,119 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. 11 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:48,880 Speaker 3: Let's get forward guidance from Scott Croner with City Group 12 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 3: US Equity Strategy. Scott, Right, now, Atlanta GDP is a 13 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 3: stupid four point two percent. You know that number is 14 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 3: going to come down. Governor Bailey's raising the growth forecast 15 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 3: fractionally in the United Kingdom. Are we just flat out 16 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 3: miss underestimating or just flat out underestimating growth? 17 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 4: Well, it's a really good question. 18 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:11,400 Speaker 5: So let's see. 19 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 6: So let's differentiate Wall Street from Main Street. Right, So 20 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 6: we're watching the Fed, We're watching what's happening with central 21 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 6: banks in Europe. I will say Tom that right now, 22 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 6: you know, in our global equity market views, we've been 23 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 6: more constructive on Europe than we have the US going 24 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 6: into Q two. 25 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 5: Why the setup there is a little. 26 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:36,759 Speaker 4: Bit easier to your point, you have improving macro trends, 27 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 4: you have a central bank closer to pivoting, and analyst 28 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 4: expectations tend to be quite low still, so the. 29 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 6: Setup there from an equity market traditional perspective is actually 30 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 6: pretty good, whereas here in the US we're still wrestling 31 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 6: with FED timing, valuation. 32 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 4: And so forth. 33 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 7: So it doesn't change our view that we think the 34 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 7: equity fundamentals are quite strong right now, but we're still 35 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 7: looking for that macro kick in terms of a FED policy, 36 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 7: and then how that translates into some of the fraying 37 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 7: around the edges we're seeing, I think with the consumer 38 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 7: to give. 39 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 5: Us a little bit more of a. 40 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 6: Falling rate tailwind that I think is still on the 41 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 6: com but not quite there yet. 42 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 8: Scott, can you talk to me a little bit about 43 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 8: your approach to European equities. I know you're long US 44 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 8: and Asia x China equities, but certainly with Asia x 45 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:29,799 Speaker 8: China you're doing it on a currency hedge basis. Talk 46 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 8: to us about how you recommend US investors approach European 47 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 8: equity should be outright or on a currency edge basis. 48 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 7: You know, look at I tend to prefer it up outright. 49 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 6: I think when we look at it, we try to 50 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,359 Speaker 6: take the currency discussion to a certain degree off the table. 51 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:46,519 Speaker 5: It's a little bit different when we talk about Japan. 52 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 6: But I think as far as Europe goes right now, 53 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:51,920 Speaker 6: I know we're going to be paying attention to currency 54 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 6: effects and interest rate differentials. But what we really want 55 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 6: to hone on here, hone in on, is this nuance 56 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 6: that the setup in Europe is a little bit closer 57 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 6: to early cycle than we are in the US. 58 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 8: So growth then, but you know, I just have to 59 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:08,079 Speaker 8: take you back here to the US. God, I mean, 60 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 8: let's take a look at, Wow, what a pop by 61 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 8: utilities of the last six weeks. Talk to me about 62 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 8: these rate sensitive sectors. Financials of pop sensitive A guy 63 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 8: like you looking at you till I'm a little sensitive. 64 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 3: Are Indonesian repea and dominion. 65 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 8: It's good, I like, But seriously, in all seriousness, got 66 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 8: I mean, utilities have had some move here and it 67 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 8: is the rate sensitive move here after what we've seen 68 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 8: by the FED. Talk to us a little bit about 69 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,519 Speaker 8: real estate and the property sector. They definitely lagged. I 70 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 8: think real estate's off seven plus percent this year. It's 71 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 8: the only sector that's down on the air. Talk to 72 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 8: us about US real estate. 73 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 7: Okay. 74 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 6: So what we did headed into Q two, we've we've 75 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 6: made a couple of important calls. The first was that 76 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 6: we were expecting a broader market pullback. We lowered tech 77 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 6: from a long standing. 78 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 5: Overweight to a market way. But what we did at 79 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 5: the margin was begin to shift our industry group and 80 00:03:56,680 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 5: sector focus to bias in favor of the those parts 81 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 5: of the market that should benefit eventually from a change 82 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 5: in FED direction. 83 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 6: Okay, And essentially where that takes you is if the 84 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 6: if the megacap growth tech part of US equities is 85 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:17,479 Speaker 6: more sensitive to ten year yields, which we believe is 86 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 6: the case, the shorter duration part of equities, which is 87 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 6: going to be utilities, it's going to be real estate, banks, 88 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 6: most aspects of the consumer. That's where we want to 89 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:33,600 Speaker 6: begin to push our positioning in anticipation of this eventual 90 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 6: peaking in FED direction. 91 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,160 Speaker 3: Scott, what do you see on debt issuance by corporations. 92 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 3: I looked at some of the debt construction of some 93 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:47,039 Speaker 3: of our glorious generational tech companies. It is it's just 94 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 3: stunning how few bonds, bills and notes they own. Are 95 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 3: they going to start issuing? 96 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 6: Yeah, look at sots of lots of discussion points here, Tom. 97 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 6: The way we've been talking about this is that we 98 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 6: have many unintended consequences of the hawkish. 99 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 5: Feder of the past couple of years. 100 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 6: And one of those unintended consequences is this meccacap growth 101 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:14,480 Speaker 6: cohort runs very low debt, very high free cash generation, 102 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,559 Speaker 6: and as many in many cases as running very high 103 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 6: cash balances, they end up being a net beneficiary of 104 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:22,599 Speaker 6: higher FED rates. 105 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 4: Okay. 106 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:26,279 Speaker 6: At the other extreme, you do have these sectors which 107 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:30,159 Speaker 6: are led by utilities and real estate where their debt 108 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 6: maturity cliffs or walls if you will begin to hit 109 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 6: this year, next year, into twenty twenty six. 110 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 4: Okay. 111 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 6: So the higher for longer FED narrative is going to 112 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:46,160 Speaker 6: be contrary to positioning there. But I do think that 113 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:49,840 Speaker 6: under the surface, in our view anyway, there are some 114 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:53,039 Speaker 6: reasons for the FED to begin to pivot among those 115 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:56,160 Speaker 6: is to avoid the risk of something else breaking that 116 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 6: would probably be a function of higher rates for longer, 117 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 6: particularly in that real estate cohort of the market. 118 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 3: Skytt Kroner, thanks for getting us started this morning. He 119 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:18,159 Speaker 3: is with City Group. It's Sarah on our tour of Spain. 120 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:21,160 Speaker 3: She's like, what did I parachute into Sarah house with 121 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 3: Wells Fargo here? And you know we're having fun this morning. 122 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 3: But let's get serious here. One of the great screw 123 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 3: ups post pandemic, and I don't blame anybody because it 124 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 3: was a medical crisis, is growth has been better than 125 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 3: anybody expected. Governor Bailey just mentioned that in the Bank 126 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,280 Speaker 3: of England Atlanta. GDP now is a four point two 127 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 3: it's going to come down. I get that. Why is 128 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 3: growth doing better than the consensus? 129 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there's a lot of reasons. Is I 130 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 1: think we underappreciated just how massive the fiscal support was, 131 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:55,479 Speaker 1: where if you combine the main seven packages, it was 132 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 1: twenty five percent of GDP effectively, and so just has 133 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: a much longer take than what we anticipated. And then 134 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 1: I think also just how stimulative monetary policy was. I 135 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 1: think it's actually provided a lot of insulation to the 136 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:09,679 Speaker 1: rate hikes that we've seen. 137 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 3: On a partial derivative basis, the halves, as somebody said yesterday, 138 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 3: those with assets on a partial derivative basis is the 139 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 3: growth and success of the halves totally outweighed half of 140 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 3: America flat on their back. 141 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it has obscured that you do have 142 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:31,240 Speaker 1: a segment of the US that is struggling a lot 143 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: more that we see it. In terms of first couple 144 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 1: of years. The bottom part of the consumers actually did 145 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 1: pretty well in terms of not only the physical support 146 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 1: we previously mentioned, but also the tight jobs market really 147 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 1: benefited those lower paying jobs used on the fastest wage growth. Well, 148 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: now we're still adding a lot of low and paying jobs, 149 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 1: but the wage growth in that sector has slowed markedly, 150 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 1: and so you're not seeing the wage numbers keep up 151 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 1: with inflation as much. And these are the consumers that 152 00:07:58,160 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 1: aren't able to trade down. They can't skip the vac 153 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: if you never took them in the first place. And 154 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: so it's really been a squeeze on this, but it's 155 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: been offset by the fact your big spends we're still 156 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 1: doing well. 157 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 3: We live vicariously through Damien. So it takes the vacations. 158 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 8: For US well, Sarah, I find it interesting your response 159 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 8: to Tom just there on why his growth stronger than 160 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 8: we expect. It has to do with the money to spy, 161 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 8: with the monetary base, with all the stimulus that the 162 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 8: FED injected into the economy over the past few years 163 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:23,640 Speaker 8: since the pandemic. And you know, when I look at 164 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 8: that and I think about that, I think about yesterday's QRARA, 165 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 8: the quarterly refunding, and I think about, you know, the 166 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 8: long end of the curve and the taper and all 167 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 8: of the things that might well be suppressing yields. Do 168 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 8: you see a possibility as the taper continues that the 169 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 8: long end of the US curve could derail, could bear steepen. 170 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: So we're still looking for long end rates to I think, 171 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 1: move lower as we move through the year, and think 172 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 1: that the yield curve will uninvert, but it's going to 173 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: be more from seeing the short end rates go down faster. 174 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 1: And so I think when ultimately, if we're getting a 175 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: little bit better handle on inflation, not all the way 176 00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 1: back to two not all the way back to two percent, 177 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 1: but at least some improvement there, I think just the 178 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 1: prospect of FED using will help in terms. 179 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 3: Of well, Damien just said there that Sarah pushed against folks. 180 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 3: I'm sorry. It's part of the zeitgeist right now. Yeah, 181 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:11,319 Speaker 3: there's a whole school of thought outs there. Oops, what 182 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 3: if yields pop out a little longer duration? 183 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 8: Well, it seems like, you know, the FED to some 184 00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 8: extent is managing you know, the long end of the curve. 185 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 8: I mean, we're not going to say there's yogur. 186 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:21,200 Speaker 3: Going on here in the US A true Is there 187 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:24,199 Speaker 3: any evidence that they are able to manage the long 188 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 3: end of the curve? 189 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:26,559 Speaker 8: Absolutely not, And there's no evidence that they can do 190 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:28,200 Speaker 8: it today. I mean that's the real gist of it. 191 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:30,319 Speaker 8: But you know, nevertheless, we've seen some things in the 192 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 8: market that are just tough to explain, like growth, I 193 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 8: mean like again, you know, and inflation for that matter, 194 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:36,839 Speaker 8: not coming off as quickly as we otherwise expect. It's 195 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 8: sort of two sides of the same coin. So it 196 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 8: talkt to us a little bit about inflation. We got 197 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 8: the CPI print coming next week. What's your focus on that. 198 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, so looking very hard at court at the core, 199 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:48,599 Speaker 1: just given that you have had three months in a 200 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 1: row of upside surprises, and we really need to see 201 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 1: the core begin to downshift if you are going to 202 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 1: keep even the potential of even a September. 203 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:57,680 Speaker 8: Cut the owner's equivalent rant. 204 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 1: I think we'll see some moderation there. It's been stickier 205 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:04,679 Speaker 1: and it's been I think slower to see that downward trend. 206 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: But we've already come off the highs. But I do 207 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 1: think that there's further further to go as we move 208 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: through the year. It's just a matter of the magnitude 209 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: and timing I think has been tricky to pin down. 210 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 1: But the direction I think pretty confident lower. 211 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 8: Well, I think that's the real one, right, I mean, 212 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 8: that's what the Fed's waiting for. And I think you know, 213 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 8: if you just look at Steve England or at stand 214 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 8: chart this morning, you know he's talking about the potential 215 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:25,559 Speaker 8: for oeer to fall in the second quarter this year, 216 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:27,959 Speaker 8: and that might be what Chair Powell is indeed hanging 217 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 8: his hat on. I mean, what else could Shairpalell be 218 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 8: hanging his hat on. In last week's you know meeting, 219 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 8: he gave three scenarios about where the Fed's going to 220 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 8: push rates, and all of them were either on hold 221 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 8: or lower. So no one seems to be talking about hikes, 222 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,720 Speaker 8: but then when pressed in the presser, he didn't necessarily 223 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,200 Speaker 8: deny that people aren't talking about hikes on the committee. 224 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 8: Talk to us a little bit about your takeaways from 225 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 8: last week. 226 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think in ter obviously Powell put a 227 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,079 Speaker 1: dampener on the possibility of hikes. I mean, I think 228 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 1: you can't ever completely rule them out, but it does 229 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,839 Speaker 1: seem like there's a very high bar in terms of 230 00:10:57,960 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: whether the Fed would actually step back in. I think 231 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: the more likely scenario is you just see the cuts 232 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:06,480 Speaker 1: keep getting pushed out. So I think if you do 233 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 1: see inflation stick, your jobs market remain resilient. I think 234 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 1: that's the more likely play, where they're not sure exactly 235 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 1: how restrictive they are, but they can sit and wait 236 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 1: longer to feel the effectsancy if there are longer legs. 237 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 3: For business America listening across the nation right now, what's 238 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 3: the animal spirit judge, where's nominal GDP twelve months forward? 239 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think it's it's still going to be 240 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:31,679 Speaker 1: pretty strong. So I'd say probably closer to four and 241 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 1: a half. Four four and a half, you still have 242 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 1: two and a half. If you still have two and 243 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 1: a half or and a half inflation. 244 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:41,319 Speaker 3: Why are we so miserable with four and a half 245 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 3: percent nominal GDP? The Knicks are winning and we've got 246 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 3: four and a half percent nominal Explain. 247 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 1: Knicks are winning, but the Hurricanes are downs to the Rangers. 248 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 1: So that's why we're a little depressed in Carolina right now. 249 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 3: The wonder Scarlett didn't show up today. 250 00:11:56,720 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 8: And you know why we're depressed because the Knicks are 251 00:11:58,200 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 8: winning and you can't afford a ticket. 252 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 3: No swing is the only one. But continue what I 253 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:06,080 Speaker 3: think that Why does a nation feel so there's a 254 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 3: weight upon them? 255 00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 1: I think it still is the inflation environment, where yes 256 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 1: we've seen improvement in terms of the rate of growth, 257 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: but prices are still roughly twenty percent higher than they 258 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: were just four years ago, and it's still difficult to digest. 259 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 1: Businesses and consumers are still having to think about their 260 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: pricing decisions a lot more than they were accustomed to 261 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 1: only a few years back, and so in some ways, 262 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: it doesn't matter that real wages have kept up if 263 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:32,600 Speaker 1: it doesn't feel like you're growing in terms of your wealth. 264 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 3: Fabulous, terrific brief. Thank you so much. Sarahaus with Wells, 265 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:43,199 Speaker 3: Fargo this morning, joining us now from Providence, Rhode Island. 266 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,839 Speaker 3: Professor Schiller is at Brown University. She's one of our 267 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 3: most popular controversial guests. The right heights of the left 268 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 3: hats are That's exactly how we want it at right now, 269 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 3: Professor Schiller. I've got to look at the trial of 270 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 3: the former president and something we've avoided, like the plague. 271 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 3: Does it help or harm him to have these events 272 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:04,680 Speaker 3: going on right now? 273 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 9: Well, it's all about getting out on the campaign trail 274 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 9: and also raising money for the presidential campaign. And every 275 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:15,319 Speaker 9: day that he's in court and that the news media 276 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 9: covers it, but still that he's actually not out on 277 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,959 Speaker 9: the campaign trail. And of course donors do they want 278 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 9: to be associated with him. I'm talking about the really 279 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,560 Speaker 9: big money donors. They haven't really gone full in for 280 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 9: Trump yet, and I think these trials are a distraction 281 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 9: for them and for him. 282 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 3: So okay, they haven't gone in full in, but the 283 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 3: campaigns are coming up. I keep telling people that are 284 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:39,439 Speaker 3: removed from this. They said, don't be removed from it. 285 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 3: It's a second week of May. It's coming quickly, isn't it. 286 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 9: It should? But the RNC and the Trump campaigns still 287 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:50,199 Speaker 9: have a very serious money problem, Tom. You know, they're 288 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 9: spending a lot of money on Trump's legal bills, and 289 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:57,000 Speaker 9: that's not stopping anytime soon. Even if these trials get delayed. 290 00:13:57,200 --> 00:13:59,839 Speaker 9: The lawyers are still on the clock. And Trump has 291 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 9: been brilliant in getting both fundraising from his donors but 292 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,959 Speaker 9: also the RNC to pay a lot of his bills, 293 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 9: and that means they can't fund things like organize and 294 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 9: get out the vote, help their county chairs, and help 295 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 9: Senate candidates in swing states, and those two kinds of campaigns, 296 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 9: the Senate campaigns, the presidential campaigns, are going to be 297 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 9: crucial to either side's victory in November. 298 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 8: Professor Schuller, I just curious to get your thoughts on sentiments. 299 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 8: And when I say sentiments, I mean, you know, the 300 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 8: resigning kind of belief is if you vote Democrat, you're 301 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 8: voting against Israel. And I'm curious to hear your thoughts 302 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 8: on that. I mean, is a vote for Biden a 303 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 8: vote against Israel? 304 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 9: Well, I mean, I think President Biden's record is actually 305 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 9: quite supportive of Israel. But there is a limit for Biden, 306 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:47,880 Speaker 9: and he set that limit not only this week, but 307 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 9: last week in limiting the actual shipment of particular kinds 308 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 9: of ammunition and guns and bombs to Israel, saying listen, 309 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 9: we can't sanction going into a civilian enclave and kill 310 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 9: another fifteen twenty thousand people. I mean, that's not possible. 311 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 9: But you know it's may. As Tom points out, Damien, 312 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 9: you point out, it's May. The American voter is going 313 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 9: to turn their attention truly to this choice in September, 314 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 9: and by then we all hope that there are things 315 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 9: are calmer between Israel and Palace on Gaza, and if 316 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 9: that's true, then the attention will return to the things 317 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 9: that are more conventional, like you know, the economy, but 318 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 9: also Trump's prior record in office. And that's what you 319 00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 9: should expect to Stephen the Biden campaign in the late 320 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 9: part of this campaign is to go after Trump and 321 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 9: remind voters what it was like the first time. 322 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 8: Professor Schuler just have to rephrase that question. Is a 323 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:43,240 Speaker 8: vote for the Republicans for Trump a vote for Israel? 324 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 9: Well, if you look at the rhetoric of some of 325 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 9: the most armed supporters today of Israel and the Republican 326 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 9: Party in the House on you know, anti Semitism on 327 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 9: combating anti Semitism just a couple of months ago. It's 328 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 9: not consistent. So the Jewish community and the Jewish voters 329 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 9: in America have to decide who they trust more over 330 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 9: the long haul to be both pro Israel but also 331 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 9: fight anti Semitism, not just abroad but at home. And 332 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 9: I think the Republicans still have a little bit of 333 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 9: work to do on that. 334 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 8: And last question, I think you just hit the nail 335 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 8: on the head here with what's going on in our 336 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 8: university campuses. And you know, there's some talk about the 337 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 8: tax exemption being repealed in the Republican administration for some 338 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 8: of these higher Harvard mit I mean, you know, if 339 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 8: they can't keep our students safe, should they indeed get 340 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 8: the exemption? What are your thoughts there? 341 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 9: I always think geographically and in terms of party locations, 342 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 9: there are also wealthy schools with big endowments in southern 343 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 9: Republican controlled states, so I think there might be an 344 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 9: increase in the amount of tax. But you can see 345 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 9: places like Duke for example, Rice, WashU and Missouri. These 346 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 9: are all Republican states, and those presidents of those universities 347 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 9: are going to be lobbing against any kind of increase 348 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 9: in taxes on their endowment. So I don't think it 349 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 9: will be as sweeping as people think will be, just 350 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 9: because of geography and partisans. 351 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 3: Wendy Shower, I don't want to go into the protests 352 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:05,399 Speaker 3: right now. We don't have time really to treat it 353 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 3: fairly with your wonderful perspective, but just to simply compare 354 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 3: and contrast, is there any analog to nineteen sixty eight 355 00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:15,880 Speaker 3: within what we're seeing right now? 356 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:20,119 Speaker 9: Yes, Tom, if most people could remember in nineteen sixty eight, 357 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,959 Speaker 9: which most people can't now, I mean that's the issue 358 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 9: is that we just don't know our history well enough. 359 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 9: But certainly the fact that the Democrat Party's convention is 360 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,440 Speaker 9: in Chicago, there will be protests and there will be 361 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:34,679 Speaker 9: a police response, no doubt, really gives people of a 362 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 9: certain age a lot of shutters to think that this 363 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 9: will give just as it gave Richard Nixon the election 364 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 9: in sixty eight, that this will give Donald Trump the election. 365 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,879 Speaker 9: And I don't discount that possibility. So they're trying to 366 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,439 Speaker 9: prepare for that as best they can. Remember. You and 367 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 9: I both know people over the age of fifty five 368 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 9: sixty they vote the biggest numbers proportionally, so they remember 369 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 9: sixty eight. So this is a real challenge for the 370 00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:58,480 Speaker 9: Democrat party coming this summer. 371 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 3: You're the second person to bring us up in three days. 372 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 3: And Wendy, let's go then to the media change. We 373 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,680 Speaker 3: don't have Dan ratheran black and white TV and Walter 374 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 3: Cronkite having a conniption as Hunting and Brinkley lean back 375 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 3: and taking the scene. Now it's instantaneous. How will that 376 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,720 Speaker 3: play out then in a beleaguered Chicago. 377 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 9: Well, I mean when you think about the you know, 378 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 9: Bull Connor and the canons on civil rights protesters, that 379 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 9: was pretty immediate and that really swung the national sentiment. 380 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 9: You can certainly see you already see them on independent voters. 381 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 9: They don't like chaos, and the Democrats have been saying, 382 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:36,159 Speaker 9: don't elect Trump, it's chaos. Now the Democrats have to 383 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 9: explain their own chaos to the key independent voters in 384 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 9: swing states that'll give them or deny them the election. 385 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 9: It's that group of voters, not the young people, that 386 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,119 Speaker 9: I think are the biggest threat to the Democrats in 387 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 9: terms of vote losses. 388 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:51,920 Speaker 3: There'll be a quiz at the end. Professor Schulder thank 389 00:18:51,960 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 3: you so much. I'll study for the quiz. Front pages 390 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,120 Speaker 3: Lisa Matella with a great list of. 391 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:07,879 Speaker 4: Stories we do. 392 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:09,480 Speaker 10: I'll start with the New York Times. This was a 393 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:12,719 Speaker 10: good one. It's a program that helps Harlem students build 394 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 10: their wealth. So it's from the Harlem Children's Zone and 395 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 10: they say they want to address the racial wealth grap 396 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,120 Speaker 10: So they're giving students, thousands of students that has charter 397 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 10: schools in Harlem ten thousand dollars each to invest. They 398 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 10: eventually want to take this program nationwide. So here here's 399 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:29,919 Speaker 10: that work. So money is going to be controlled by 400 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 10: professional money managers. Students will only be able to get 401 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 10: that full amount when they're twenty five years old. That's 402 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:40,480 Speaker 10: after they graduate high school. College also takes some financial 403 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 10: literacy courses. The students who don't reach all those milestones, 404 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 10: they'll still be able to get a part of the money, 405 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:47,679 Speaker 10: not all of it. But it can be used for 406 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 10: wealth building purposes only things like a down payment on 407 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 10: a home, continuing education, or a business investment. 408 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 3: And what's great about this, Damian, and I can't say 409 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 3: enough about how wrong I was about this. Boy does 410 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 3: it work. We had a program at Bloomberg to bring 411 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 3: Bloomberg terminals to colleges. Good morning, Sarah Yango on the 412 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 3: West Coast. And after the third time where she laughed 413 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,320 Speaker 3: in my face and said, time this works, it was 414 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 3: unbelievable how using the Bloomberg terminal and like the Harlem 415 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 3: program engages these kids well at least. 416 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 8: So what I find most interesting about that story is 417 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:22,919 Speaker 8: that professional money managers are going to be doing the managing. 418 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 8: I mean, who's that going to be. It's going to 419 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 8: be PTJ or you know somebody else. He's a little close. No, 420 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 8: I'm just kidding. I'm just speculating. But now, that's a 421 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:31,720 Speaker 8: great program, and they do work work. 422 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 3: Would you agree with me? The best part of it 423 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 3: is they learn how to lose money. 424 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 8: The best part of that, yeah, well you're learning how 425 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 8: to lose money as an important lesson. 426 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,680 Speaker 3: I can let's buy her B and B. That worked 427 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 3: out this morning. Next. 428 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:47,919 Speaker 10: Gosh, just just speaking of losing money, seriously, underwater home mortgages, 429 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 10: they are starting to grow nationwider. Does that mean this 430 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,399 Speaker 10: is from Adam? So seriously underwater close to three percent 431 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 10: of homes carry loan balances. At least twenty five percent 432 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:58,920 Speaker 10: more than their market value in the first few months 433 00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 10: of the year. So that's seriously So that's up to 434 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 10: more than two and a half percent from the previous quarter. 435 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:09,119 Speaker 10: Places like Kentucky, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Arkansas. That is leading 436 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 10: up the Southern states. One in every thirty seven homes 437 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 10: in the US. What about the try stay the Tri 438 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,199 Speaker 10: state area not as bad, but it's more like the 439 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 10: Southern states that are starting to find it find themselves 440 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:19,680 Speaker 10: in that situation. 441 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 8: How does how does it clear your guess is as 442 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,360 Speaker 8: good as mind? Hopefully the regional banks down there don't 443 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 8: have the same problems we had up here with CRA. 444 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 3: I mean a lot of people are saying with commercial 445 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,479 Speaker 3: real estate, Okay, it's it's separate, it's distinct and all that. 446 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,440 Speaker 3: We had some good guests on that, but I don't. 447 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:34,879 Speaker 8: Well, they moved a lot of that risk away from 448 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 8: the regional banks, you know, and into the hands of 449 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:38,919 Speaker 8: consumers and homeowners. Whether or not the banks have to 450 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,399 Speaker 8: get involved if things get bad remains to be seen. 451 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 4: Next yep. 452 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 10: And then you talked about the record breaking heat, so 453 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 10: I want to kind of play off of that vacation ers. 454 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,399 Speaker 10: This from the Wall Street Journal they're actually changing up 455 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,719 Speaker 10: their summer vacation plans because of that record breaking heat. 456 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 10: So they're moving away from places like you know, Paris, 457 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 10: Pacific Northwest, and they're going to cooler places. So Damien, 458 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 10: you have to change her. You have to change your vacation. 459 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 10: You have to go to Norway and Austria's in Salzburg. 460 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 3: I love. 461 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:10,880 Speaker 10: That's where more people are going, less intense summer, cooler temperature. 462 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:13,720 Speaker 8: You can thank my mother. 463 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:15,439 Speaker 10: So Norway, have you been? 464 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:15,680 Speaker 4: Have you? 465 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 8: I've never been to Norway? 466 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 10: Okay, So Norway, Sweden, Finland, Southampton, England. Those are some 467 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,200 Speaker 10: popular fair Banks, Alaska. How about Alaska. 468 00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,159 Speaker 8: I've never been to Alaska. I'd love to do a 469 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 8: fire and ice trap. 470 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 3: I went to alb Wants. Norway is great. Helsinki. 471 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 8: I can't say enough about see. 472 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 10: I got to change up my routine, got to get 473 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:41,199 Speaker 10: there the park and go. Okay, if you're scared to 474 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 10: quit your job, this is interesting. There's a company who 475 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 10: you can hire to do it for you, to handle 476 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:52,439 Speaker 10: that awkward situation if you're ready to quit. Okay, this 477 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 10: is actually happening in Japan. There's a company named Momori. 478 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 10: It actually translates roughly to I've had it up to here. 479 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 10: You can let me know if I'm writing, Damien. But 480 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,679 Speaker 10: clients are paying them seventy to one hundred and seventy 481 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 10: five dollars to like avoid the confrontation that strain, like 482 00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 10: emotional strain, social awkwardness when you want to quit in person. 483 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:17,879 Speaker 10: And these resignation agencies where they're starting to grow, so 484 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,440 Speaker 10: there's more of them coming around. The larger ones say 485 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 10: they process more than fifteen hundred cases each in April alone. 486 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 10: That's so many people are quitting. The smaller ones about hundreds. 487 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 10: But they're saying that they're running three times higher than 488 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,360 Speaker 10: last year, so it's happening more. And the people were 489 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,320 Speaker 10: quitting more, actually not the veterans, but they are the 490 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 10: new grads that are quitting more. 491 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:40,680 Speaker 8: Tom, have you ever had a lay someone off? Well, 492 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 8: you know, I don't think I have, you know, I mean, 493 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,240 Speaker 8: I don't think I have the stomach to do it. 494 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:45,679 Speaker 8: I mean, I may I may be a client. 495 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:46,680 Speaker 10: You may be. 496 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 3: And my father changed in the week when he had 497 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,919 Speaker 3: to let people go. It was I remember, he just 498 00:23:56,320 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 3: flat out changed. It's Damien's this question is really really important. 499 00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 8: If You've been out there before and unemployed. You know 500 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 8: how it is. You know, it's a real tough thing 501 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:05,320 Speaker 8: to do. 502 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:09,679 Speaker 3: Yeah, Lisa Matero, thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciate this. 503 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,880 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best 504 00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:17,680 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also 505 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. 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