WEBVTT - Surveillance: John Kirby on Israel-Hamas

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<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz.

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<v Speaker 2>Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics,

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<v Speaker 1>This is a joy.

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<v Speaker 2>He is a National Security Council spokesman. He is someone

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<v Speaker 2>steeped in our defense discussion as the President speaks at

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<v Speaker 2>one PM this afternoon, but far more John Kirby has

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<v Speaker 2>actually had tours.

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<v Speaker 1>Of duty with the Navy. He has real world.

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<v Speaker 2>Experience that when the facts change, Admiral Kirby changes. Admiral

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<v Speaker 2>thank you so much for joining us this morning and

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<v Speaker 2>your briefings with the President and his team this morning.

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<v Speaker 1>What will be the message at one pm?

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<v Speaker 3>The first and most important message that the President will

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<v Speaker 3>deliver in his remarks is really about the United States

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<v Speaker 3>is long standing and continued support of Israel, of the

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<v Speaker 3>people of Israel, our sympathies obviously with the loss and

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<v Speaker 3>the suffering and the shock that they're going through, but

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<v Speaker 3>also our firm resolved to make sure that they can

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<v Speaker 3>continue to defend themselves against these the terrorist attacks and

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<v Speaker 3>to take action against Hamas directly. So he will talk

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<v Speaker 3>about the military assistance that we are providing and that

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<v Speaker 3>we expect to have to provide going forward. Number two,

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<v Speaker 3>we'll talk about the hostage situation and the crisis and

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<v Speaker 3>the fear that that is also engendering in so many

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<v Speaker 3>hearts and minds throughout the region, including here in the

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<v Speaker 3>United States, and what the United States might be willing

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<v Speaker 3>to do to help with the hostage recovery efforts. And

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<v Speaker 3>then lastly, and this is not unimportant at all, it's

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<v Speaker 3>a strong message for Americans here at home that anti

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<v Speaker 3>Semitism has no place, neither does terrorism, and that the

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<v Speaker 3>United States federal govern that will work with state and

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<v Speaker 3>local authorities to make sure that a Jewish community throughout

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<v Speaker 3>the country doesn't have to live in fear and anguish

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<v Speaker 3>and anxiety. That we're going to make sure that we

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<v Speaker 3>can look after Jewish community centers and places of worship.

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<v Speaker 2>John Kirby from an Israel template, there is sixty seven

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<v Speaker 2>and seventy three, and they were very different to bring

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<v Speaker 2>it to your navy almost Zuomalt, Admiral Zumwalt didn't have

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<v Speaker 2>to worry about social media, the immediacy, the speed of

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<v Speaker 2>news today. How will this effort of Israel and the

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<v Speaker 2>assistance of the United States change because of this modern

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<v Speaker 2>news cycle, that crushing visibility of the terror that we

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<v Speaker 2>have seen.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean, you can't have a conflict today anymore

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<v Speaker 3>where it's not being brought home to people in real

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<v Speaker 3>time in micro bits of information and imagery. And it

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<v Speaker 3>really it gives you a gut punch because it's right

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<v Speaker 3>in front of your face and everywhere you turn, you

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<v Speaker 3>gotta feel like you have to react to it. It

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<v Speaker 3>is really important like this, particularly when information is so

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<v Speaker 3>is so ubiquitous and so accelerated, that when appropriate, you

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<v Speaker 3>got to make sure you're slowing down and making the

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<v Speaker 3>right policy decisions, that you're acting not so much in

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<v Speaker 3>reaction to what's in the news environment, but what you

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<v Speaker 3>actually need to do on the field of battle or

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<v Speaker 3>in the information space. Make no mistake, and we saw

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<v Speaker 3>this in twenty fourteen in the Gaza war. The information

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<v Speaker 3>the narrative war was just as important as the bombs

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<v Speaker 3>that were dropping and the explosions that were going off.

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<v Speaker 3>That will be even more the case here in terms

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<v Speaker 3>of making sure that you know that there is a

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<v Speaker 3>common set of narratives about who's that fault here, who

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<v Speaker 3>are the victims, and what needs to be done to

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<v Speaker 3>move this forward.

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<v Speaker 4>John Kravy, There's been a lot of discussion around the

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<v Speaker 4>six billion dollars that the US released to unfroze.

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<v Speaker 5>I should say.

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<v Speaker 4>For Tehran.

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<v Speaker 5>It has not been released yet.

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<v Speaker 4>I've seen some of the comments that you and others

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<v Speaker 4>have made in the administration saying that not a petty off.

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<v Speaker 4>It's actually been transferred. However, what is the discussion around

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<v Speaker 4>refreezing it. How likely and realistic is it that this

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<v Speaker 4>administration will refreeze that six billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>We don't have a policy decision on that to speak

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<v Speaker 3>to you right now. It has always been the case

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<v Speaker 3>that that money could have could be frozen at any time.

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<v Speaker 3>We said that when we send it over to Cutter

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<v Speaker 3>and made it available to the Iranians. It's also important

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<v Speaker 3>to remember that the regime, even though none of it's

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<v Speaker 3>been spent yet, but even if some had been, the

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<v Speaker 3>regime never sees a dime of it. They never get

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<v Speaker 3>their hands on it. It goes right to vendors that

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<v Speaker 3>we approve who buy the humanitarian goods and ship them

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<v Speaker 3>into Iran for direct access to the Iranian people. The

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<v Speaker 3>regime will never see a sin of this.

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<v Speaker 4>A lot of people have said that this is sort

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<v Speaker 4>of just a distraction from the real issue, which is

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<v Speaker 4>that essentially Iran is getting a ton of money through

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<v Speaker 4>the exports of oil, particularly to China, despite sanctions, and

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<v Speaker 4>the sanctions have been somewhat lightened, how much does the

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<v Speaker 4>US talk about enforcing the sanctions in a more significant

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<v Speaker 4>way or the ineffectiveness of those sanctions.

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<v Speaker 3>I would push back a little bit on the idea

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<v Speaker 3>that sanctions have been enlightened. We have not lightened any

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<v Speaker 3>of the sanctions. In fact, we've added additional sanctions, some

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<v Speaker 3>four hundred sanctions on Iran just since the beginning of

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<v Speaker 3>this administration, and we're absolutely committed to full and total enforcement.

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<v Speaker 1>Now.

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<v Speaker 3>Obviously, other nations have to enforce their sanctions as well,

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<v Speaker 3>and certainly we talk with them about that, but the

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<v Speaker 3>United States has not backed off on any sanctions. Quite

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<v Speaker 3>the contrary, We've added and increased our enforcement capability. Not

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<v Speaker 3>to mention, we have increased our military presence in the

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<v Speaker 3>Gulf region and now of course in the Eastern med

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<v Speaker 3>to deter would be actors like Iran who might want

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<v Speaker 3>to try to take advantage of the situation.

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<v Speaker 4>So far, there has been a distinction drawn by both

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<v Speaker 4>US and Israeli official saying that while it is clear

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<v Speaker 4>that Iran has been involved in backing Hamas financially, it

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<v Speaker 4>is unclear whether they were directly involved in orchestrating this

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<v Speaker 4>particular attack. What is the difference from a perspective? What

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<v Speaker 4>would the US do and Israel do should Iran be

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<v Speaker 4>determined to have been intimately connected with orchestrating this attack.

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<v Speaker 3>I won't get into speculating about what policy decisions we

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<v Speaker 3>might or might not make based on where the information

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<v Speaker 3>and the intelligence leads us. All I can do is

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<v Speaker 3>reiterate what we've been saying.

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<v Speaker 4>We haven't seen.

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<v Speaker 3>Any specific tactical intelligence or information evidence that points to

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<v Speaker 3>Iran's participation in these particular attacks. Now clearly, and we've

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<v Speaker 3>made no bones about it, that there is already and

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<v Speaker 3>has been for a long time, a degree of complicity

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<v Speaker 3>by Iran here because they've been supporting Hamas for many years,

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<v Speaker 3>Training capabilities, resourcing, certainly rhetorically in just the last twenty

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<v Speaker 3>four hours of Supreme leaders out there praising this attack

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<v Speaker 3>by Hamas. So there's a degree of complicity, but we

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<v Speaker 3>just haven't found any correct evidence. And quite frankly, now

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<v Speaker 3>there have our Israeli counterparts, Emal Kirby.

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<v Speaker 2>With great respect, and I don't want you to give

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<v Speaker 2>away the family secrets. But the conventional effort is like

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<v Speaker 2>eboeing this century E three intelligence aircraft. You put a

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<v Speaker 2>couple of them up in the air and gather intelligence.

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<v Speaker 2>This is two million people in a highly urban landscape,

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<v Speaker 2>squeezed into a geography that is two Washington d c's.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you prosecute intelligence against an enemy sandwiched in

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<v Speaker 2>among two million people?

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<v Speaker 1>Very difficult, very difficult to do.

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<v Speaker 3>I won't speak for the Israelis, and of course you

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<v Speaker 3>know this is really for them to talk about. We will,

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<v Speaker 3>obviously will and continue to share intelligence with them and

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<v Speaker 3>offer them help in intelligence gathering, as of course we will,

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<v Speaker 3>we always do, but it'll be a task really for

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<v Speaker 3>them to work on. But it is very difficult, very dense,

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<v Speaker 3>very as you said, urban and very very heavily populated,

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<v Speaker 3>and Hamas this is just another example of their barbarity,

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<v Speaker 3>using Palestinians that live in gata as human shields, hiding

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<v Speaker 3>in mosques and residential bid buildings and hospitals as command centers.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, this is what makes it very, very difficult

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<v Speaker 3>for precise targeting ERMA.

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<v Speaker 2>One final question, and I must speak to the navy

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<v Speaker 2>that gerald Ford is in the area. Is it properly staffed?

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<v Speaker 2>Is this a US Navy that can develop the manpower,

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<v Speaker 2>the sea power to staff not only that aircraft carrier

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<v Speaker 2>but the many other ships involved.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the gerald Ford care Strike Group is now in

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<v Speaker 3>the Eastern Mediterranean. As you rightly said, it's not just

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<v Speaker 3>the aircraft carrier and the embarked air wing of more

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<v Speaker 3>than eighty aircraft, but it is several ships and around

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<v Speaker 3>it in its periphery. They are all fully manned, they're

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<v Speaker 3>all fully trained, they're all fully ready and fully armed

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<v Speaker 3>to look after American national security interests in the region.

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<v Speaker 3>That was one of the messages that the President wanted

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<v Speaker 3>to send by moving those forces there, that nobody should

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<v Speaker 3>take advantage of the situation in Israel, and that the

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<v Speaker 3>United States will always make sure that our national security

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<v Speaker 3>interests are first and foremost as well Edmial.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much.

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<v Speaker 2>John Curry of the National Security Council. A different voice now,

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<v Speaker 2>an important voice, Cecy Lovely, totally.

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<v Speaker 1>I'll get that right. Help me here.

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<v Speaker 2>Lisa Israeli, Ambassador of the United Kingdom, joins us this

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<v Speaker 2>morning in her busy schedule as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Ambassador.

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<v Speaker 2>Six years ago, in the conversation of the politics of

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<v Speaker 2>Israel in the United States, you spoke about Jews in America.

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<v Speaker 1>Leading convenient lives.

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<v Speaker 2>I thought it was a brilliant comment of the distance

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<v Speaker 2>of Israel from Judaism in America. Speaking of convenient lives

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<v Speaker 2>in America? Are our convenient lives? Have they been shattered?

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<v Speaker 6>I think in a way every Jew in the world

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<v Speaker 6>his life's being shattered after what happened in the last

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<v Speaker 6>forty eight hours in Israel. I want to tell you

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<v Speaker 6>from a personal stories because for me, I've been in

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<v Speaker 6>Israel when the war started, and my husband and my

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<v Speaker 6>two daughters are still in Israel. I just received my

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<v Speaker 6>daughters in a shelter at the moment because Tel Aviv

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<v Speaker 6>is under a rockets attack at the moment as we speak,

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<v Speaker 6>and this is horrendous. We've never seen anything like that,

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<v Speaker 6>and I'm speaking as someone who has experienced I was

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<v Speaker 6>part of the Israeli government. I've seen terror attacks in

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<v Speaker 6>my life, and I must say this is unprecedented, the

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<v Speaker 6>way Hamas barbarically acted against children, against young women. We're

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<v Speaker 6>speaking here about war crimes being committed by Hamas in

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<v Speaker 6>the last forty eight hours. The Israelis and the international

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<v Speaker 6>community are exposed to those. I don't even have the

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<v Speaker 6>words to explain. How about those atrocities are and the

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<v Speaker 6>videos on social media that I'm sure you've seen some

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<v Speaker 6>of it. I've just seen of a young Israeli child

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<v Speaker 6>walking in Gaza and Palestinian children are bitting him up.

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<v Speaker 6>Those are things, I mean, think about. It reminds us

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<v Speaker 6>dark times in the Jewish history, and this is our obligation,

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<v Speaker 6>our first obligation to fight back and to make sure

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<v Speaker 6>Hamas will never have the ability to act against Israelis.

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<v Speaker 5>Ambassador, how are.

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<v Speaker 4>You responding to the fact that this is really creating

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<v Speaker 4>a whole host of tensions around the world that have

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<v Speaker 4>become sort of ethnically focused on both sides. It really

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<v Speaker 4>has erupted debates and protests and anger.

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<v Speaker 5>On both sides.

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<v Speaker 4>How would you like to angle the conversation to be

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<v Speaker 4>able to foster something more productive.

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<v Speaker 6>I think that this is time to fight and to

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<v Speaker 6>defend the people of Israel.

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<v Speaker 5>And I think.

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<v Speaker 6>Whoever saw the fact that a thousand Israelis were killed

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<v Speaker 6>in cold blood cannot speak now about both sides. There

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<v Speaker 6>is one side here. Who's the side that once freedom, democracy,

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<v Speaker 6>cares about human rights, cares about people's life, which is

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<v Speaker 6>the Israeli side.

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<v Speaker 5>And there is the other side. This is good versus evil.

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<v Speaker 6>This is so clear here that we are fighting in

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<v Speaker 6>one of Israel's darkest moments. We are fighting evil that

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<v Speaker 6>the world haven't seen since the Second World War, and

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<v Speaker 6>we need to fight it. It's a terror organization recognized

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<v Speaker 6>in the US and in the UK. And you know,

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<v Speaker 6>many people are comparing to nine to eleven, and I

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<v Speaker 6>heard many people that are making the equivalent numbers with

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<v Speaker 6>the proportion. When you think about Israel as a tiny country,

0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:38.360
<v Speaker 6>just nine million people, it's actually ten times of nine

0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:43.000
<v Speaker 6>to eleven. And the disaster that the country is experiencing.

0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:45.480
<v Speaker 6>This is something that any country in the world should

0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:49.319
<v Speaker 6>support Israel. Now we've seen Israeli flags here in London.

0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:53.640
<v Speaker 6>We saw the British Parliament colors itself in blue and white.

0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:56.960
<v Speaker 6>We saw number ten Downing Street with a huge Israeli

0:12:56.960 --> 0:13:00.600
<v Speaker 6>flag projected on. This is the time to support Israel.

0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:05.040
<v Speaker 6>The international community should understand that if Israel is not protected,

0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:08.480
<v Speaker 6>then the whole Western civilization is not protected, because those

0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:12.040
<v Speaker 6>horrible things backed by Iran can happen everywhere.

0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:14.240
<v Speaker 4>Ambassadora, totally, what do you make of some of the

0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:18.800
<v Speaker 4>reports of Qatar, of the United Arab Emirates of Egypt

0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:23.360
<v Speaker 4>even acting as some sort of intermediary to negotiate hostage releases.

0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:28.600
<v Speaker 6>Hostage release is a very very important mission at the moment.

0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:34.960
<v Speaker 6>We call again Hamas to release every single individual, children, women,

0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:39.000
<v Speaker 6>elderly women that were kidnapped by Hamas.

0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:40.560
<v Speaker 5>Some of them were tortured.

0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:46.400
<v Speaker 6>And we've seen horrible, horrible again videos and images that

0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.920
<v Speaker 6>are coming from Yaza, and they are committing those war

0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:52.800
<v Speaker 6>crimes and the world must stop them to commit those

0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.800
<v Speaker 6>war crimes. They need to release the people being kidnapped.

0:13:55.800 --> 0:13:59.079
<v Speaker 2>Ambassador, your politics is clearly to the right, that is

0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:02.120
<v Speaker 2>the way. It is a stole within the Israeli media

0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:03.640
<v Speaker 2>and of course in the United Kingdom.

0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:06.760
<v Speaker 6>Let me help you with that, I'm ambassador. According to

0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:09.920
<v Speaker 6>the Israeli system. When you become a diplomat.

0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:10.959
<v Speaker 1>You're represent I understand that.

0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:11.640
<v Speaker 7>I don't.

0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:14.800
<v Speaker 5>I don't, I don't follow at the moment, you.

0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:17.400
<v Speaker 6>Know the Israeli politics as a politicians, I don't understand

0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:18.400
<v Speaker 6>representing Israel.

0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:21.840
<v Speaker 2>And Bessadors talking to our Stuart Wallace about this news

0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:26.080
<v Speaker 2>of a coalition or combined government within Israel.

0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:27.520
<v Speaker 1>That is in your wheelhouse.

0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:31.520
<v Speaker 2>Can that be successful and how will a combination of

0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:35.960
<v Speaker 2>Israeli politics be successful in prosecuting this war.

0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:40.640
<v Speaker 6>So, first of all, it's clear both to the Prime

0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:43.920
<v Speaker 6>Minister and to the leaders of opposition that there was

0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.760
<v Speaker 6>never bigger necessity for unity government in Israel than at

0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:52.560
<v Speaker 6>this moment. And I speak on behalf ever Israeli Israelis

0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:56.680
<v Speaker 6>are united now. Israeli's fight together, shoulder to shoulder. We

0:14:56.720 --> 0:15:00.000
<v Speaker 6>see so many gestures coming from Israelis want to support

0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:03.560
<v Speaker 6>our soldiers, want to support the people that need help

0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:06.080
<v Speaker 6>at the moment in Israel, that are in the front line.

0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:09.080
<v Speaker 6>So they want to see the same reflection in our politics.

0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:12.400
<v Speaker 6>And I'm sure that the unity government will happen and

0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:13.520
<v Speaker 6>it will be the reality.

0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:15.720
<v Speaker 5>I hope sooner.

0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:20.720
<v Speaker 2>The better ambassador, the Arab community speaks to different sets

0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:26.400
<v Speaker 2>or different cohorts of Palestinians. Can the Arab nations assist

0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:30.800
<v Speaker 2>Israel in speaking the Palestine away from Hamas?

0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:34.920
<v Speaker 5>You know, this is not something new.

0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:37.320
<v Speaker 6>I mean, this is a process being going on over

0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:40.720
<v Speaker 6>a generation. And in the last few years, as you know,

0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:44.880
<v Speaker 6>there were dramatic breakthroughs between Israel and our world with

0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:48.640
<v Speaker 6>the Abraham Accords, with the ongoing negotiation with Saudi.

0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:50.600
<v Speaker 5>So we are in.

0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:53.520
<v Speaker 6>Times where our world wants to be close to Israel

0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:58.360
<v Speaker 6>and the Middle East is changing. Unfortunately, this radical ideology

0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:04.040
<v Speaker 6>that Hamas is leading based on isis mentality, this jihadi ideology.

0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:07.800
<v Speaker 6>The look at Tamas charter, look at what there they

0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:10.240
<v Speaker 6>want to do. They want to kill basically every single Jew.

0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:13.880
<v Speaker 6>They don't they don't recognize the right of Israel to exist.

0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:17.840
<v Speaker 6>So when this is Hamas ideology, this is ideology must

0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:21.200
<v Speaker 6>be fight. You can't negotiate with these people, you can't

0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:25.320
<v Speaker 6>have peace with Hamas. You need to fight back because

0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:28.640
<v Speaker 6>they started this war and Israel will win this war.

0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:30.960
<v Speaker 4>Ambassador totally, what do you make of some of the

0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:33.880
<v Speaker 4>discussion around Iran And there's been a lot of dancing

0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:36.160
<v Speaker 4>around you know that they have backed Hamas, but that

0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:41.840
<v Speaker 4>they weren't necessarily directly involved in executing it or orchestrating it.

0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:45.320
<v Speaker 4>How important is that going to be the determination of

0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:48.160
<v Speaker 4>that to determine the next step for the Israeli government.

0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:54.600
<v Speaker 6>Well, obviously Iran is involved, and obviously Iran is the

0:16:54.640 --> 0:17:00.880
<v Speaker 6>big brain behind activating its proxies. But at the moment

0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:04.880
<v Speaker 6>we have this war to win. The war against Iran

0:17:05.200 --> 0:17:09.720
<v Speaker 6>is something bigger than that. But the international community should

0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:12.920
<v Speaker 6>know the real face of Iran and its proxies through

0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:17.960
<v Speaker 6>those atrocities that Hamas committed in Israeli innocent people, including

0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:22.239
<v Speaker 6>children and elderly. I just can I say something, just

0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:26.200
<v Speaker 6>because my country is now in a point where a thousand,

0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:29.320
<v Speaker 6>almost a thousand funerals are going to take place in

0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:32.640
<v Speaker 6>the coming few days. This is a number we've never

0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:35.680
<v Speaker 6>seen in our lifetime in one day. The President said

0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:39.640
<v Speaker 6>yesterday that since the Holocaust, we never experienced a reality

0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:42.080
<v Speaker 6>where so many Jews were killed in one day. And

0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:45.399
<v Speaker 6>I'm looking at those stories. The Times has in the

0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:48.480
<v Speaker 6>front page the ked And family, Jonathan and Tamal, the

0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:52.520
<v Speaker 6>beautiful twins, their son, they were all murdered in one day,

0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:56.800
<v Speaker 6>think about those families that were destroyed because of this

0:17:56.920 --> 0:18:00.440
<v Speaker 6>barbaric attack. I think this is the date to mourn

0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:04.160
<v Speaker 6>with the Israelis that lost their dear ones they loved once,

0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:08.920
<v Speaker 6>those children being executed in front of their parents, those

0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:11.720
<v Speaker 6>are days to support Israel, and I think this is

0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:14.280
<v Speaker 6>why I'm coming here to speak to you and all

0:18:14.320 --> 0:18:17.919
<v Speaker 6>the people that care about the future Western civilization. Israel

0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:21.760
<v Speaker 6>is in the frontline of this Western civilization, surrounded by

0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:24.840
<v Speaker 6>very radical people, and we need to fight back and

0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:28.280
<v Speaker 6>we need the world support in this very justified war.

0:18:28.440 --> 0:18:31.879
<v Speaker 2>Ambassador, thank you so much for joining Bloomberg today. Ambassador

0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:35.680
<v Speaker 2>hotol Israelly, Ambassador to the United Kingdom, and our Queen

0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:38.639
<v Speaker 2>Victoria Street Studios.

0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:44.600
<v Speaker 8>With the Surround the Table. Stuart Kaiser had a US

0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:47.840
<v Speaker 8>secrety trading strategy over City, said this a few times

0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:50.560
<v Speaker 8>already this week. We'd be waking up on Monday talking

0:18:50.600 --> 0:18:53.000
<v Speaker 8>about the jobs report from Friday, the fact that the

0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:54.760
<v Speaker 8>data is good and we're talking about something, ask we

0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:56.720
<v Speaker 8>just sit on the data for a moment. Good news,

0:18:56.800 --> 0:18:58.800
<v Speaker 8>good news for the team. You've said that a few times.

0:18:58.800 --> 0:18:59.960
<v Speaker 8>It look like it was on Friday.

0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:02.520
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, I think we're still in that camp. I was

0:19:02.520 --> 0:19:04.480
<v Speaker 9>a little surprised by the response on Friday. I thought,

0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:06.480
<v Speaker 9>with the jobs over that was so strong, you know,

0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:08.840
<v Speaker 9>we might see bond volatility kind of hold equities back

0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:11.240
<v Speaker 9>for a bit. It held them back for about fifteen minutes,

0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:12.760
<v Speaker 9>and then you know, we kind of went back to

0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:15.160
<v Speaker 9>one more operation. So as we sort of said, Friday

0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:17.480
<v Speaker 9>encapsulated our view on how markets are going to respond

0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:19.880
<v Speaker 9>to this data, which is, if the data is very strong, initially,

0:19:19.920 --> 0:19:21.359
<v Speaker 9>you might get yield higher and that could be a

0:19:21.359 --> 0:19:24.800
<v Speaker 9>headwind for equities. But big picture, equities like a stronger economy,

0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:26.840
<v Speaker 9>and you would expect them to kind of, you know,

0:19:26.920 --> 0:19:28.720
<v Speaker 9>reorient to that as well. And I think both both

0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:30.520
<v Speaker 9>pay rolls at the ISM report last week, you know,

0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:32.120
<v Speaker 9>kind of played into that narrative.

0:19:32.440 --> 0:19:37.480
<v Speaker 2>Start Upsico reports third quarter results, raises full year EPs,

0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:42.239
<v Speaker 2>and provides initial constructive twenty twenty four outlook. I'm going

0:19:42.280 --> 0:19:43.760
<v Speaker 2>to go back to your phrase, which I love it.

0:19:44.200 --> 0:19:45.880
<v Speaker 2>It's a typical phraseency from a.

0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:49.680
<v Speaker 1>Guy like you. Solid growth. Okay, what does that mean?

0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:52.479
<v Speaker 2>I mean you are the optimist people right now are

0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:56.640
<v Speaker 2>scared stiff for eight different reasons to find solid.

0:19:56.960 --> 0:19:59.399
<v Speaker 9>I think for at this point solid would be, you know,

0:19:59.600 --> 0:20:01.879
<v Speaker 9>you don't go into recession, right, you get an actual

0:20:01.920 --> 0:20:05.480
<v Speaker 9>soft landing that doesn't include negative growth from a job's perspective.

0:20:05.520 --> 0:20:07.920
<v Speaker 9>You know that's going to be you know, payrolls stay

0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:11.399
<v Speaker 9>stay positive, unemployment rates stays below four and a half percent,

0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:14.200
<v Speaker 9>and you can get kind of a real soft landing.

0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:15.959
<v Speaker 9>I think you know your comments on PEPSI. I think

0:20:15.960 --> 0:20:17.880
<v Speaker 9>the probably most important thing there is they're talking about

0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:20.600
<v Speaker 9>twenty four right, and you know, if Corporate America has

0:20:20.640 --> 0:20:22.680
<v Speaker 9>to do what the FED did, which was basically revised

0:20:22.720 --> 0:20:24.879
<v Speaker 9>up twenty twenty four, I think that's your goal case.

0:20:25.320 --> 0:20:27.479
<v Speaker 9>If they re made very cautious on that growth, you know,

0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:29.720
<v Speaker 9>going into next year, then we'll probably have something to

0:20:29.720 --> 0:20:30.120
<v Speaker 9>worry about.

0:20:30.200 --> 0:20:32.480
<v Speaker 2>And Lisa just headline, I missed this Within all the

0:20:32.480 --> 0:20:36.560
<v Speaker 2>newsflow we've got, PepsiCo still sees fiscal year organic revenue

0:20:36.560 --> 0:20:41.960
<v Speaker 2>growth of ten percent. I three years ago, I never

0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:45.160
<v Speaker 2>envisioned that, not once double digit revenue growth.

0:20:45.200 --> 0:20:45.880
<v Speaker 1>That's stunning.

0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:48.320
<v Speaker 4>This is the reason why the idea of them revising

0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:51.240
<v Speaker 4>their expectations upward the similar to the FED, you think

0:20:51.320 --> 0:20:54.000
<v Speaker 4>is good news. How important is JP Morgan and their

0:20:54.040 --> 0:20:56.640
<v Speaker 4>earnings on Friday going to be in setting your expectations

0:20:56.640 --> 0:20:57.879
<v Speaker 4>and setting your forecasts.

0:20:58.240 --> 0:20:58.400
<v Speaker 7>Yeah.

0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:00.359
<v Speaker 9>I think the bank earners in general, you're going to

0:21:00.400 --> 0:21:01.960
<v Speaker 9>be very very important. You know, what do they do

0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:03.840
<v Speaker 9>on reserves again will be important. You know, how do

0:21:03.880 --> 0:21:05.639
<v Speaker 9>they talk about the deal calendar? I think is going

0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:07.520
<v Speaker 9>to be incredibly important. And you know, we've had a

0:21:07.520 --> 0:21:10.119
<v Speaker 9>lot of headlines recently on capital requirements. You know how

0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:12.760
<v Speaker 9>they kind of message that I think will be important

0:21:12.760 --> 0:21:15.040
<v Speaker 9>as well. You know, banks have been a really really

0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:17.199
<v Speaker 9>tricky sector. I think folks are frustrated that yields are

0:21:17.240 --> 0:21:19.600
<v Speaker 9>rising and banks aren't performing as well. I think the

0:21:19.640 --> 0:21:22.120
<v Speaker 9>deal calendar, I think the capital overhang and the fact

0:21:22.160 --> 0:21:24.600
<v Speaker 9>that the curve is still inverted. Probably those three things

0:21:24.760 --> 0:21:26.760
<v Speaker 9>are playing into this. And then there's just underlying credit

0:21:26.840 --> 0:21:28.840
<v Speaker 9>risks whe people are worried about on a go forward basis.

0:21:28.840 --> 0:21:29.880
<v Speaker 5>Are you worried about credit risk?

0:21:29.880 --> 0:21:31.760
<v Speaker 4>Are you worried about the fact that so many companies

0:21:31.800 --> 0:21:34.320
<v Speaker 4>are just holding on and not borrowing for as long

0:21:34.320 --> 0:21:36.440
<v Speaker 4>as they possibly can because of what we're dealing with

0:21:36.560 --> 0:21:39.040
<v Speaker 4>in terms of higher borrowing costs. Once they have to

0:21:39.080 --> 0:21:41.320
<v Speaker 4>do that, then not only will you see credit distress,

0:21:41.400 --> 0:21:43.720
<v Speaker 4>you will also see these banks have a knemic deal

0:21:43.760 --> 0:21:44.919
<v Speaker 4>flow on multiple levels.

0:21:45.200 --> 0:21:45.400
<v Speaker 7>Yeah.

0:21:45.440 --> 0:21:47.880
<v Speaker 9>Look, I think the credit thing is a little bit tricky.

0:21:47.920 --> 0:21:50.320
<v Speaker 9>Everybody's worried about their ability to write refinance, but if

0:21:50.359 --> 0:21:52.240
<v Speaker 9>you look at the timing of it, a lot of

0:21:52.240 --> 0:21:54.080
<v Speaker 9>it doesn't happen for a couple three years, you know.

0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:56.440
<v Speaker 9>So we're getting really worked up about something that isn't

0:21:56.480 --> 0:21:58.720
<v Speaker 9>isn't really immediate. So I think from my perspective, what

0:21:58.720 --> 0:22:01.399
<v Speaker 9>we're worried about is is actually credit event type stuff.

0:22:01.560 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 9>Do we see losses in the commercial real estate sector?

0:22:03.640 --> 0:22:05.879
<v Speaker 9>Do we see companies have trouble either selling assets or

0:22:05.920 --> 0:22:07.600
<v Speaker 9>refinancing that actually.

0:22:07.320 --> 0:22:08.160
<v Speaker 7>Have to do it now?

0:22:08.840 --> 0:22:11.160
<v Speaker 9>Unfortunately, we tried to narrow that list. We got only

0:22:11.160 --> 0:22:13.880
<v Speaker 9>about twenty five stocks that really have have you know,

0:22:14.200 --> 0:22:17.159
<v Speaker 9>near and dear type refinancing risks. So we're worried about it,

0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:18.720
<v Speaker 9>but it does feel like, you know, maybe we're worried

0:22:18.720 --> 0:22:19.880
<v Speaker 9>about it a little too early at this point.

0:22:19.920 --> 0:22:22.040
<v Speaker 8>For you're saying that high for longer isn't a problem

0:22:22.080 --> 0:22:22.920
<v Speaker 8>anytime soon.

0:22:23.640 --> 0:22:25.440
<v Speaker 9>It would appear in that it would appear not right.

0:22:25.760 --> 0:22:27.520
<v Speaker 9>You know, a lot of the obviously, the S and

0:22:27.560 --> 0:22:29.439
<v Speaker 9>P is more of an investment gree corporate. You know

0:22:29.560 --> 0:22:31.600
<v Speaker 9>a lot of those folks have refined and also locked

0:22:31.640 --> 0:22:34.240
<v Speaker 9>in and extended hy you borrowers I think tried to

0:22:34.280 --> 0:22:36.920
<v Speaker 9>do that as well. So it is a risk obviously.

0:22:37.000 --> 0:22:39.760
<v Speaker 9>You know, some companies need to refine. It only takes one, right,

0:22:39.760 --> 0:22:41.840
<v Speaker 9>It takes one company to have difficulty doing that, and

0:22:41.880 --> 0:22:43.960
<v Speaker 9>then it can kind of snowball a bit. But if

0:22:44.000 --> 0:22:46.320
<v Speaker 9>you look at the timing of their needs to refinance,

0:22:46.359 --> 0:22:47.720
<v Speaker 9>it's not something that's really going to hit you in

0:22:47.720 --> 0:22:48.720
<v Speaker 9>the next six to twelve months.

0:22:48.840 --> 0:22:49.000
<v Speaker 1>Joah.

0:22:49.080 --> 0:22:51.720
<v Speaker 2>We talk about all this esoteric stuff. Mostly it comes

0:22:51.720 --> 0:22:53.080
<v Speaker 2>down do you have to pick? Am I going to

0:22:53.119 --> 0:22:55.320
<v Speaker 2>buy the potato chip company? Am I going to buy

0:22:55.359 --> 0:22:58.360
<v Speaker 2>the good people from Atlanta? And you know, in every

0:22:58.400 --> 0:23:02.160
<v Speaker 2>stock selection you have to make a choice. Never did

0:23:02.200 --> 0:23:04.320
<v Speaker 2>I think the choice would be this broad. Over the

0:23:04.400 --> 0:23:08.800
<v Speaker 2>last decade, Pepsi is clean, Coca Cola's clocked by what

0:23:08.840 --> 0:23:12.160
<v Speaker 2>we call three hundred and fifty five basis points. That's

0:23:12.240 --> 0:23:15.760
<v Speaker 2>three point six percent return per year.

0:23:15.880 --> 0:23:18.840
<v Speaker 8>So that's that is a chip company beating Atlanta.

0:23:19.240 --> 0:23:22.639
<v Speaker 2>Yeah yeah, Coke zero is like you know what, But

0:23:22.760 --> 0:23:24.240
<v Speaker 2>in Stuart's world, this.

0:23:24.280 --> 0:23:25.919
<v Speaker 1>Is how you keep your job is you got to

0:23:25.960 --> 0:23:29.800
<v Speaker 1>pick you know pepsi over coke? Yeah, coke, no pepsi?

0:23:30.880 --> 0:23:32.160
<v Speaker 8>Okay, got no idea?

0:23:32.200 --> 0:23:32.959
<v Speaker 7>What this is gone? Now?

0:23:33.400 --> 0:23:36.720
<v Speaker 8>Thank you Jit conscious City question.

0:23:41.119 --> 0:23:43.119
<v Speaker 1>Right now. And this is a great honor. Stephen A.

0:23:43.280 --> 0:23:46.119
<v Speaker 2>Cook, a senior fellow of Middle East and Africa Studies

0:23:46.560 --> 0:23:49.399
<v Speaker 2>at the Consul on Foreign Relations. It's unfortunate that he

0:23:49.440 --> 0:23:51.719
<v Speaker 2>and I speak only when the world is blowing up,

0:23:51.800 --> 0:23:54.720
<v Speaker 2>or his world is blowing up. The definitive book on

0:23:54.800 --> 0:23:58.520
<v Speaker 2>Turkey is false down. And this June we will celebrate

0:23:58.640 --> 0:24:02.760
<v Speaker 2>the end of the end of ambition. How America should

0:24:02.840 --> 0:24:05.960
<v Speaker 2>move forward in the Middle East. Steven, thank you so

0:24:06.040 --> 0:24:08.719
<v Speaker 2>much for joining us today. I want to go to

0:24:08.760 --> 0:24:11.920
<v Speaker 2>the ambition of the President this morning. He's going to

0:24:12.000 --> 0:24:15.400
<v Speaker 2>speak here. We have to recalibrate an ambition with all

0:24:15.440 --> 0:24:19.720
<v Speaker 2>the legacy of forty eight, sixty seven, seventy three. What

0:24:19.800 --> 0:24:23.480
<v Speaker 2>should be America's ambition day four of this war.

0:24:25.320 --> 0:24:28.520
<v Speaker 10>Well, it's clear that the President is going to throw

0:24:29.240 --> 0:24:34.240
<v Speaker 10>all of his support to Israel. Already there is actually

0:24:34.280 --> 0:24:39.080
<v Speaker 10>bipartisan support for anything that the Israelis need resupply. They

0:24:39.080 --> 0:24:43.360
<v Speaker 10>will need a resupply of iron dome interceptors, and there

0:24:43.400 --> 0:24:46.480
<v Speaker 10>is an aircraft carrier battlegroup moving into the eastern Mediterranean.

0:24:46.520 --> 0:24:49.480
<v Speaker 10>That is clearly a warning to Iran and his law

0:24:50.080 --> 0:24:54.480
<v Speaker 10>not to widen this conflict. That would be the nightmare

0:24:54.520 --> 0:24:58.119
<v Speaker 10>scenario for the Israelis. So the United States is getting

0:24:58.720 --> 0:25:01.720
<v Speaker 10>indirectly or directly involved, and I think it's an appropriate

0:25:02.760 --> 0:25:04.160
<v Speaker 10>policy for the United States.

0:25:04.160 --> 0:25:06.840
<v Speaker 7>The question will be is as this.

0:25:06.920 --> 0:25:10.600
<v Speaker 10>Conflict goes on, the Israelis are clearly gearing up for

0:25:10.840 --> 0:25:15.400
<v Speaker 10>a major ground invasion, infantry in the Gaza Strip, occupation

0:25:15.520 --> 0:25:19.080
<v Speaker 10>of the Gaza Strip for periods of time. How long

0:25:19.359 --> 0:25:25.240
<v Speaker 10>will the international community remain staunchly behind the Israel's operation.

0:25:25.440 --> 0:25:27.439
<v Speaker 10>I think the Israelis have a lot of leeway with

0:25:27.520 --> 0:25:30.720
<v Speaker 10>this president in particular, and after how many Israelis were

0:25:30.880 --> 0:25:35.560
<v Speaker 10>killed in the opening stages of this conflict. But one

0:25:35.560 --> 0:25:39.600
<v Speaker 10>can't imagine given the past pattern of events, as Israelis

0:25:39.600 --> 0:25:43.680
<v Speaker 10>prosecute their operations and more innocent Palestinians were killed, that

0:25:43.760 --> 0:25:46.840
<v Speaker 10>there will be pressure Israelis to move off.

0:25:46.840 --> 0:25:49.800
<v Speaker 2>Steve and to borrow from Mahada Abaden. Is this an

0:25:49.840 --> 0:25:52.719
<v Speaker 2>Iran resurgent? I mean, I look at it around and

0:25:52.760 --> 0:25:56.480
<v Speaker 2>I say, this is a complete surprise for so many

0:25:56.560 --> 0:25:59.760
<v Speaker 2>of Hamas, but maybe also a complete surprise of Iran.

0:26:00.320 --> 0:26:01.639
<v Speaker 1>Is it Iran resurgent?

0:26:03.000 --> 0:26:06.320
<v Speaker 10>Well, certainly Iran is playing the role of an agent

0:26:06.440 --> 0:26:10.280
<v Speaker 10>of chaos in the region. I think the administration's efforts

0:26:10.320 --> 0:26:16.000
<v Speaker 10>to modify Iranian behavior through diplomacy through incentives just does

0:26:16.080 --> 0:26:18.560
<v Speaker 10>not work. And I think it should be clear to

0:26:18.640 --> 0:26:24.240
<v Speaker 10>everybody by now that trying to engage the Iranians, trying

0:26:24.280 --> 0:26:29.960
<v Speaker 10>to beget goodwill through goodwill, is not a fruitful avenue

0:26:30.000 --> 0:26:34.320
<v Speaker 10>to pursue. The Iranians are not willing to reciprocate. They

0:26:34.359 --> 0:26:36.560
<v Speaker 10>want to push the United States out of the region,

0:26:36.960 --> 0:26:40.119
<v Speaker 10>and they want to confront Israel. And this is the

0:26:40.160 --> 0:26:42.639
<v Speaker 10>result of it. And the sooner we all come to

0:26:42.680 --> 0:26:45.440
<v Speaker 10>that conclusion, the better off will all be able to

0:26:45.960 --> 0:26:48.800
<v Speaker 10>clearer policies towards Iran will come into view.

0:26:49.119 --> 0:26:52.360
<v Speaker 4>Stephen, it feels like there is a feeling that Iran

0:26:52.760 --> 0:26:56.480
<v Speaker 4>was involved. Yesterday, Jean was talking with Ron Dermer about

0:26:56.520 --> 0:26:59.560
<v Speaker 4>this about how as they get more information they are

0:26:59.640 --> 0:27:02.720
<v Speaker 4>real saying that maybe there was a more direct role

0:27:02.760 --> 0:27:05.560
<v Speaker 4>from Iran. Is there just simply a reluctance to say

0:27:05.560 --> 0:27:08.480
<v Speaker 4>it out loud because then it would necessitate a response

0:27:08.520 --> 0:27:11.800
<v Speaker 4>that does escalate the conflict to such a degree that

0:27:11.880 --> 0:27:13.280
<v Speaker 4>it puts it in dangerous territory.

0:27:14.119 --> 0:27:15.280
<v Speaker 7>I think that's exactly right.

0:27:16.160 --> 0:27:19.119
<v Speaker 10>I think all the publicly available indicators would suggest that

0:27:19.160 --> 0:27:23.000
<v Speaker 10>the Iranians were involved. The meetings between the Kudz Forces

0:27:23.000 --> 0:27:26.439
<v Speaker 10>Commander Left Spring and Hamasis Islamic chi Had and his Belah.

0:27:26.680 --> 0:27:29.200
<v Speaker 10>The kind of quantum leap and in terms of tactics

0:27:29.200 --> 0:27:32.240
<v Speaker 10>and complexity of the operation that began on Saturday, has

0:27:32.280 --> 0:27:37.120
<v Speaker 10>all the hallmarks of actually his Belah, Iran's primary proxy

0:27:37.240 --> 0:27:41.080
<v Speaker 10>throughout the region. The unusual activity of the Supreme Leader

0:27:41.200 --> 0:27:43.640
<v Speaker 10>on social media last week talking about the the Zionist

0:27:43.840 --> 0:27:47.479
<v Speaker 10>entity dying, and then of course Hamas itself thanking the

0:27:47.520 --> 0:27:52.280
<v Speaker 10>Islamic Republic for its weaponry and support for the operation.

0:27:52.840 --> 0:27:58.000
<v Speaker 10>If though the Israels publicly pain the Iranians, it does

0:27:58.160 --> 0:28:02.359
<v Speaker 10>call for direct engagement.

0:28:02.280 --> 0:28:03.800
<v Speaker 7>Kinetic action against the Rans.

0:28:03.880 --> 0:28:06.000
<v Speaker 10>Now, of course, these Reels and the Runans are engaged

0:28:06.000 --> 0:28:09.080
<v Speaker 10>in a shadow war throughout the region anyway, but this

0:28:09.160 --> 0:28:13.040
<v Speaker 10>would be a step up in a real confrontation, and

0:28:13.320 --> 0:28:15.960
<v Speaker 10>one has to be sure that the United States and

0:28:16.000 --> 0:28:19.200
<v Speaker 10>Israeli are engaged in conversations about the what if.

0:28:18.960 --> 0:28:22.800
<v Speaker 4>Here in your recent article, Stephen in CFR you wrote

0:28:22.800 --> 0:28:26.120
<v Speaker 4>that under these circumstances, no foreign government, including the US,

0:28:26.160 --> 0:28:29.400
<v Speaker 4>will have any leverage on Israel to respond with restraint.

0:28:29.600 --> 0:28:32.080
<v Speaker 4>Where is the rest of the Middle East on this?

0:28:32.280 --> 0:28:34.760
<v Speaker 4>We've heard about the United Arab Emirates, We've heard about Egypt,

0:28:34.800 --> 0:28:37.280
<v Speaker 4>We've heard about Cutter trying to negotiate some sort of

0:28:37.720 --> 0:28:40.440
<v Speaker 4>deal to release the hostages. Seems like that's a no

0:28:40.560 --> 0:28:42.920
<v Speaker 4>go based on both sides and some of the rhetoric there.

0:28:43.320 --> 0:28:45.680
<v Speaker 4>What are people doing to try to prevent a full

0:28:45.760 --> 0:28:48.200
<v Speaker 4>out Middle East war that does involve a great deal

0:28:48.200 --> 0:28:49.000
<v Speaker 4>of nations.

0:28:49.680 --> 0:28:52.480
<v Speaker 10>Well, there's not a lot that they can do. I

0:28:52.480 --> 0:28:56.000
<v Speaker 10>think this is one of the problems is that publicly,

0:28:56.680 --> 0:29:01.120
<v Speaker 10>Arab governments have to issue these kind of statements that

0:29:01.200 --> 0:29:06.000
<v Speaker 10>are run from ambiguous to condemnation of Israeli conduct. Now, Israelis,

0:29:06.000 --> 0:29:07.960
<v Speaker 10>of course have a lot to answer for their conduct

0:29:08.000 --> 0:29:09.200
<v Speaker 10>in the West Bank and the cause of the strip

0:29:09.200 --> 0:29:11.600
<v Speaker 10>over many years, but of course that's obviously no excuse

0:29:11.640 --> 0:29:15.320
<v Speaker 10>for the butchery of innocence. So in behind the scenes

0:29:16.640 --> 0:29:19.760
<v Speaker 10>they are seeking the escalation, but of course many of

0:29:19.800 --> 0:29:23.720
<v Speaker 10>them remain on Israel's side here, so again they will

0:29:24.520 --> 0:29:27.720
<v Speaker 10>the Israelis will have a certain amount of leadway in

0:29:28.040 --> 0:29:32.520
<v Speaker 10>order to prosecute this campaign, but of course, as the

0:29:32.560 --> 0:29:36.800
<v Speaker 10>civilians suffer, there will in time be lots of pressure

0:29:36.840 --> 0:29:39.000
<v Speaker 10>for the Israelis to back off.

0:29:39.760 --> 0:29:40.280
<v Speaker 7>I think the.

0:29:40.280 --> 0:29:43.600
<v Speaker 10>Israeli public is demanding the destruction of Hamas, and that's

0:29:43.600 --> 0:29:48.320
<v Speaker 10>going to give the Israelis further ability to resist international

0:29:48.360 --> 0:29:50.880
<v Speaker 10>pressure that will come from both its neighbors as well

0:29:50.880 --> 0:29:54.560
<v Speaker 10>as Europe and some quarters in the United States as

0:29:55.080 --> 0:29:56.200
<v Speaker 10>this operation continues.

0:29:56.440 --> 0:29:58.720
<v Speaker 8>Saman thank you for your insight this morning. I appreciate it.

0:29:58.760 --> 0:30:12.200
<v Speaker 8>Stemen Cook the an soil on from relations. Congressman Frenchhill

0:30:12.400 --> 0:30:15.080
<v Speaker 8>joined us right now. Congressman, a deeply emotional time for

0:30:15.400 --> 0:30:18.320
<v Speaker 8>everyone involved, even though it's looking God from the outside

0:30:18.320 --> 0:30:22.240
<v Speaker 8>looking in. Congressman, if you had an intelligence report, a briefing.

0:30:21.960 --> 0:30:26.760
<v Speaker 11>Just yet, Jonathan, we have an intelligence committee meeting on

0:30:26.960 --> 0:30:30.080
<v Speaker 11>Israel this afternoon at three pm, so that we can

0:30:30.120 --> 0:30:32.840
<v Speaker 11>pose all these questions that so many of us have,

0:30:33.000 --> 0:30:35.480
<v Speaker 11>which is, how did this happen and we weren't aware

0:30:35.520 --> 0:30:37.640
<v Speaker 11>of it in advance. I think that's a key question

0:30:37.680 --> 0:30:39.600
<v Speaker 11>that everybody's trying to get the right answer to.

0:30:39.840 --> 0:30:42.000
<v Speaker 8>There is something very odd about what we're being told

0:30:42.240 --> 0:30:44.640
<v Speaker 8>currently from the administration. It was only a week or

0:30:44.720 --> 0:30:47.080
<v Speaker 8>so ago that we heard from Jake Sullivan, the National

0:30:47.080 --> 0:30:50.640
<v Speaker 8>Security Advisor, who is optimistic about developments in the Middle

0:30:50.680 --> 0:30:52.800
<v Speaker 8>East and said the Middle East region is quite today

0:30:52.960 --> 0:30:55.480
<v Speaker 8>than it has been in two decades. At the same time,

0:30:55.480 --> 0:30:58.000
<v Speaker 8>we've heard from Secretary blinkn who said we've been concerned

0:30:58.000 --> 0:31:00.480
<v Speaker 8>about the risk of instability for many many month between

0:31:00.520 --> 0:31:04.280
<v Speaker 8>Israelis and Palestinians. Congressman, which one was it?

0:31:05.840 --> 0:31:08.160
<v Speaker 11>I think it's I've traveled in the region since the

0:31:08.200 --> 0:31:12.000
<v Speaker 11>first of May. I've been in Aman twice, Jerusalem, riod

0:31:12.320 --> 0:31:17.280
<v Speaker 11>Urbil Baghdad, Ankara, Turkey talking about the region, talking about

0:31:17.280 --> 0:31:20.040
<v Speaker 11>the need for America's reassurance of the region that we're

0:31:20.080 --> 0:31:22.440
<v Speaker 11>not pulling out and that we're a true partner. But

0:31:22.520 --> 0:31:25.800
<v Speaker 11>there's some key issues. First, the Arab League has readmitted

0:31:25.840 --> 0:31:28.400
<v Speaker 11>Asad back into the Arab League, even though he's done

0:31:28.480 --> 0:31:32.560
<v Speaker 11>nothing to curtail his murder of his own citizens, his

0:31:32.680 --> 0:31:35.680
<v Speaker 11>partnership with the Iranian Shia militia and the Russians, and

0:31:35.760 --> 0:31:40.400
<v Speaker 11>killing Syrians, and exporting captagon, which is a deadly and

0:31:40.440 --> 0:31:44.080
<v Speaker 11>addictive drug that he's manufacturing and selling to the Gulf States.

0:31:44.640 --> 0:31:48.520
<v Speaker 11>And look, I was pleased that the President has begun

0:31:48.560 --> 0:31:52.520
<v Speaker 11>to make progress with Saudi Arabia on potentially bringing them

0:31:52.520 --> 0:31:56.120
<v Speaker 11>into the Abraham Accords initiated by President Trump. And for

0:31:56.240 --> 0:31:59.680
<v Speaker 11>some of us, this looks like a direct response to

0:31:59.840 --> 0:32:03.840
<v Speaker 11>the effort that Iran is throwing a disruption by a

0:32:03.840 --> 0:32:06.360
<v Speaker 11>full scale attack if we find it to be true

0:32:06.760 --> 0:32:10.120
<v Speaker 11>that they back Hamas, but they've been a financier of Hamas,

0:32:10.200 --> 0:32:14.040
<v Speaker 11>They've been a founder of Hamas and Hesba Lah in Lebanon.

0:32:14.200 --> 0:32:16.800
<v Speaker 11>So all fingers are pointed in that direction. But we

0:32:16.840 --> 0:32:19.080
<v Speaker 11>want to get the validation Congress Hill.

0:32:19.320 --> 0:32:22.200
<v Speaker 2>Part of this is a stretch of five years, ten years,

0:32:22.240 --> 0:32:25.240
<v Speaker 2>fifteen years. Dare I say back to nineteen seventy three,

0:32:25.640 --> 0:32:29.520
<v Speaker 2>which is an America balancing between real politic and a

0:32:29.680 --> 0:32:33.719
<v Speaker 2>focus in some would say, critics would say overfocus.

0:32:33.000 --> 0:32:34.960
<v Speaker 1>On human rights.

0:32:35.320 --> 0:32:37.200
<v Speaker 2>Frame how that debate's going to go as you go

0:32:37.280 --> 0:32:40.320
<v Speaker 2>to this security meeting this afternoon and frankly in the

0:32:40.320 --> 0:32:41.360
<v Speaker 2>coming days of war.

0:32:42.800 --> 0:32:45.360
<v Speaker 11>Right, So, look, if you want peace in Israel, you've

0:32:45.400 --> 0:32:48.840
<v Speaker 11>got to have a partner to negotiate with. And that's

0:32:48.880 --> 0:32:51.520
<v Speaker 11>a really important thing I think for Americans to understand

0:32:51.760 --> 0:32:56.680
<v Speaker 11>there is no one Palestinian authority that fully represents the

0:32:56.800 --> 0:32:59.840
<v Speaker 11>citizens that live in Gaza and those in the West Bank.

0:33:00.120 --> 0:33:04.280
<v Speaker 11>Hamas is essentially at political war with FATA, which is

0:33:04.320 --> 0:33:06.840
<v Speaker 11>my mood of ASA's party in the West Bank. So

0:33:06.880 --> 0:33:10.000
<v Speaker 11>it's very difficult to get a two state solution when

0:33:10.040 --> 0:33:12.080
<v Speaker 11>you don't really have two states that you're trying to

0:33:12.080 --> 0:33:16.160
<v Speaker 11>negotiate with. That's why the Abraham Accords approach, the involvement

0:33:16.160 --> 0:33:18.520
<v Speaker 11>of Saudi Arabia, I thought it could be a breakthrough

0:33:18.880 --> 0:33:21.320
<v Speaker 11>in trying to bring peace to the West Bank. But

0:33:21.360 --> 0:33:25.720
<v Speaker 11>that doesn't really affect the fact that Hamas, which controls Gaza,

0:33:26.160 --> 0:33:29.280
<v Speaker 11>doesn't agree with their other Palestinian brothers and sisters in

0:33:29.320 --> 0:33:32.600
<v Speaker 11>the West Bank, and they're certainly fully committed to war

0:33:32.680 --> 0:33:33.280
<v Speaker 11>with Israel.

0:33:34.400 --> 0:33:36.800
<v Speaker 2>Well, okay, we're with Israel. What do you expect to

0:33:36.800 --> 0:33:39.200
<v Speaker 2>see at this meeting today? I mean, you've been in

0:33:39.240 --> 0:33:41.800
<v Speaker 2>these meeting of zillion times as well. You're going to

0:33:41.840 --> 0:33:43.760
<v Speaker 2>be briefed then what?

0:33:45.520 --> 0:33:47.680
<v Speaker 11>Well, I think we're going to find out. First of

0:33:47.720 --> 0:33:52.640
<v Speaker 11>what's the intelligence say about the partnership that helped AMAS

0:33:52.760 --> 0:33:56.080
<v Speaker 11>carry out was a surprise attack on Israel. So that's

0:33:56.240 --> 0:33:58.080
<v Speaker 11>I think the first thing and the first and most

0:33:58.120 --> 0:34:02.360
<v Speaker 11>important thing. Secondly, what is the response of Israel to

0:34:02.560 --> 0:34:04.720
<v Speaker 11>that attack on their sovereign land? And what can the

0:34:04.880 --> 0:34:08.799
<v Speaker 11>United States do to stand with our ironclad ally and

0:34:08.880 --> 0:34:12.120
<v Speaker 11>partner in the regent to repel it. And then of

0:34:12.120 --> 0:34:14.520
<v Speaker 11>course we've got the issue Tom that's very concerning to

0:34:14.560 --> 0:34:17.120
<v Speaker 11>all of us, which are Americans that are held as

0:34:17.200 --> 0:34:20.160
<v Speaker 11>hostages or Americans that have been killed. And that will

0:34:20.200 --> 0:34:22.400
<v Speaker 11>be a very important decision for the President and I

0:34:22.440 --> 0:34:25.280
<v Speaker 11>look forward to his assessment on what the American reaction

0:34:25.360 --> 0:34:26.239
<v Speaker 11>should be to that.

0:34:26.719 --> 0:34:30.080
<v Speaker 4>Congressman, can the US and leash aid to Israel without

0:34:30.120 --> 0:34:32.360
<v Speaker 4>a House speaker, without a functioning House?

0:34:33.480 --> 0:34:36.400
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, thanks, Lisa. Look, last two weeks ago, we passed

0:34:36.400 --> 0:34:40.560
<v Speaker 11>the State and Foreign Operations Appropriation across the House floor,

0:34:40.600 --> 0:34:43.520
<v Speaker 11>and we passed the Defense Appropriation Bill across the House floor.

0:34:44.120 --> 0:34:47.560
<v Speaker 11>Billions of dollars in those bills for our military partnership

0:34:47.600 --> 0:34:51.480
<v Speaker 11>with Iran and to counter terrorism like a moss and

0:34:51.640 --> 0:34:55.080
<v Speaker 11>money in State and foreign opts to enhance the Abraham

0:34:55.120 --> 0:34:59.040
<v Speaker 11>Accords issue. And we don't support in these bills aid

0:34:59.120 --> 0:35:04.040
<v Speaker 11>to the Palestinian authority either until they rein in this

0:35:04.200 --> 0:35:06.560
<v Speaker 11>kind of behavior. So those bills were important. I wish

0:35:06.600 --> 0:35:09.040
<v Speaker 11>the Senate would take those up. But we need a

0:35:09.080 --> 0:35:11.239
<v Speaker 11>House speaker this week, and we need it soon because

0:35:11.239 --> 0:35:14.200
<v Speaker 11>we want our full legislative body to have the voice

0:35:14.200 --> 0:35:17.520
<v Speaker 11>of the American people. In case President Biden asked the

0:35:17.520 --> 0:35:20.279
<v Speaker 11>House to take action this week, we have to have

0:35:20.320 --> 0:35:21.040
<v Speaker 11>a House speaker.

0:35:21.280 --> 0:35:24.480
<v Speaker 4>Congressman, are your peers, your colleagues in the House and

0:35:24.480 --> 0:35:28.280
<v Speaker 4>their Republican Party willing to tie the idea of Ukraine

0:35:28.400 --> 0:35:32.000
<v Speaker 4>AID and Israel AID together or is there reluctance to

0:35:32.080 --> 0:35:34.560
<v Speaker 4>really go for one and not the other, or simply

0:35:34.880 --> 0:35:37.000
<v Speaker 4>to deal with this issue right now, given how politically

0:35:37.000 --> 0:35:37.520
<v Speaker 4>fraud it is.

0:35:38.480 --> 0:35:42.200
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, well, first, I think we should treat them separately. Personally,

0:35:42.560 --> 0:35:44.400
<v Speaker 11>I'm working very hard in the House to find the

0:35:44.440 --> 0:35:47.760
<v Speaker 11>consensus on the right path forward to support kicking Putin

0:35:47.800 --> 0:35:50.760
<v Speaker 11>out of Ukraine and providing American support to our European

0:35:50.800 --> 0:35:54.560
<v Speaker 11>allies to continue aid to Ukraine. We want transparency, we

0:35:54.600 --> 0:35:57.120
<v Speaker 11>want leadership, we want a strategy to win, of course,

0:35:57.520 --> 0:36:00.319
<v Speaker 11>but America is an indispensable partner in a too in

0:36:00.360 --> 0:36:03.960
<v Speaker 11>that effort. Secondly, on Israel, we need to hear directly

0:36:03.960 --> 0:36:07.840
<v Speaker 11>from the President after this he completes his assessment on

0:36:08.000 --> 0:36:11.360
<v Speaker 11>what we need to do to support our ally Israel

0:36:11.400 --> 0:36:14.400
<v Speaker 11>that we can't do with existing authorities or existing funding.

0:36:14.600 --> 0:36:17.000
<v Speaker 11>I think that remains to be seen, and we'll hear

0:36:17.040 --> 0:36:19.839
<v Speaker 11>from them soon. In the meantime, as I say, we've

0:36:19.880 --> 0:36:24.160
<v Speaker 11>appropriated three point three billion for foreign military sales assistance

0:36:24.239 --> 0:36:27.239
<v Speaker 11>to Israel just two weeks ago, and we appropriated five

0:36:27.320 --> 0:36:30.760
<v Speaker 11>hundred million dollars for the US Israeli Military Cooperation Agreement.

0:36:30.920 --> 0:36:33.239
<v Speaker 11>So there's significant money that's been approved by the House.

0:36:33.280 --> 0:36:36.680
<v Speaker 8>The congressman, speaking of money, this unfrozen six billion dollars

0:36:36.719 --> 0:36:39.720
<v Speaker 8>is getting a ton of attention. Let's work through it together.

0:36:39.880 --> 0:36:42.719
<v Speaker 8>This is the official response from Secretary Blinkin. This is

0:36:42.719 --> 0:36:44.920
<v Speaker 8>what he says about it. Not a single dollar from

0:36:44.960 --> 0:36:48.360
<v Speaker 8>that account has actually been spent today. It's very carefully

0:36:48.400 --> 0:36:51.000
<v Speaker 8>and closely regulated by the Treasury Department to make sure

0:36:51.000 --> 0:36:54.640
<v Speaker 8>that it's only used for food, for medicine, for medical equipment.

0:36:54.880 --> 0:36:59.200
<v Speaker 8>Are we focusing on the right thingcare Congressman, Well, look.

0:36:59.080 --> 0:37:02.200
<v Speaker 11>Let's be clear. Let's say that Iran this year will

0:37:02.239 --> 0:37:06.200
<v Speaker 11>have its largest GDP source about forty five billion dollars

0:37:06.239 --> 0:37:10.239
<v Speaker 11>in oil sales. We're talking about releasing fungible money back

0:37:10.280 --> 0:37:12.800
<v Speaker 11>to the government of Iran, which is a state sponsor

0:37:12.840 --> 0:37:16.719
<v Speaker 11>of terrorism, about six billion dollars related to money from

0:37:16.760 --> 0:37:20.400
<v Speaker 11>oil sales to South Korea. What Secretary Blincoln says is

0:37:20.520 --> 0:37:22.839
<v Speaker 11>true that it can only be released when they make

0:37:22.880 --> 0:37:27.080
<v Speaker 11>a humanitarian or food assistance purchase. But it's still money

0:37:27.120 --> 0:37:29.480
<v Speaker 11>that goes into the treasury in Tehran, and they can

0:37:29.560 --> 0:37:33.520
<v Speaker 11>use other money to fund terrorism because they know that

0:37:33.640 --> 0:37:37.560
<v Speaker 11>six billions coming in. And on top of that, Iraq

0:37:37.719 --> 0:37:41.200
<v Speaker 11>owes Iran thirty one billion dollars, and the United States

0:37:41.280 --> 0:37:44.600
<v Speaker 11>has approved a release of about two or almost three

0:37:44.760 --> 0:37:50.040
<v Speaker 11>billion dollars of natural gas sales money from Iraq to Iran.

0:37:50.280 --> 0:37:53.279
<v Speaker 11>So this is significant money when you think about their

0:37:53.360 --> 0:37:57.560
<v Speaker 11>largest GDP revenue sources about forty five billion, and we're

0:37:57.600 --> 0:38:01.560
<v Speaker 11>talking roughly seventeen billion dollars in total that they're eligible

0:38:01.560 --> 0:38:05.200
<v Speaker 11>to receive through these trust accounts, as you say, for

0:38:05.400 --> 0:38:10.239
<v Speaker 11>a humanitarian or food stuff type purchase. But we're not

0:38:11.120 --> 0:38:15.320
<v Speaker 11>naive here that frees up other money in the Tehran treasury.

0:38:15.840 --> 0:38:17.560
<v Speaker 8>French, thanks for catching up with today. I know the

0:38:17.600 --> 0:38:19.920
<v Speaker 8>intelligence briefing is a little bit later on this afternoon.

0:38:19.960 --> 0:38:22.239
<v Speaker 8>We'd love to catch up with you again afterwards to

0:38:22.440 --> 0:38:24.640
<v Speaker 8>get an idea of what you've heard from the count

0:38:24.920 --> 0:38:26.160
<v Speaker 8>Congressman french Hilldack.

0:38:26.320 --> 0:38:30.120
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0:39:00.200 --> 0:39:00.640
<v Speaker 4>On the