Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
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Speaker 1: This is a joy.
Speaker 2: He is a National Security Council spokesman. He is someone
Speaker 2: steeped in our defense discussion as the President speaks at
Speaker 2: one PM this afternoon, but far more John Kirby has
Speaker 2: actually had tours.
Speaker 1: Of duty with the Navy. He has real world.
Speaker 2: Experience that when the facts change, Admiral Kirby changes. Admiral
Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us this morning and
Speaker 2: your briefings with the President and his team this morning.
Speaker 1: What will be the message at one pm?
Speaker 3: The first and most important message that the President will
Speaker 3: deliver in his remarks is really about the United States
Speaker 3: is long standing and continued support of Israel, of the
Speaker 3: people of Israel, our sympathies obviously with the loss and
Speaker 3: the suffering and the shock that they're going through, but
Speaker 3: also our firm resolved to make sure that they can
Speaker 3: continue to defend themselves against these the terrorist attacks and
Speaker 3: to take action against Hamas directly. So he will talk
Speaker 3: about the military assistance that we are providing and that
Speaker 3: we expect to have to provide going forward. Number two,
Speaker 3: we'll talk about the hostage situation and the crisis and
Speaker 3: the fear that that is also engendering in so many
Speaker 3: hearts and minds throughout the region, including here in the
Speaker 3: United States, and what the United States might be willing
Speaker 3: to do to help with the hostage recovery efforts. And
Speaker 3: then lastly, and this is not unimportant at all, it's
Speaker 3: a strong message for Americans here at home that anti
Speaker 3: Semitism has no place, neither does terrorism, and that the
Speaker 3: United States federal govern that will work with state and
Speaker 3: local authorities to make sure that a Jewish community throughout
Speaker 3: the country doesn't have to live in fear and anguish
Speaker 3: and anxiety. That we're going to make sure that we
Speaker 3: can look after Jewish community centers and places of worship.
Speaker 2: John Kirby from an Israel template, there is sixty seven
Speaker 2: and seventy three, and they were very different to bring
Speaker 2: it to your navy almost Zuomalt, Admiral Zumwalt didn't have
Speaker 2: to worry about social media, the immediacy, the speed of
Speaker 2: news today. How will this effort of Israel and the
Speaker 2: assistance of the United States change because of this modern
Speaker 2: news cycle, that crushing visibility of the terror that we
Speaker 2: have seen.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you can't have a conflict today anymore
Speaker 3: where it's not being brought home to people in real
Speaker 3: time in micro bits of information and imagery. And it
Speaker 3: really it gives you a gut punch because it's right
Speaker 3: in front of your face and everywhere you turn, you
Speaker 3: gotta feel like you have to react to it. It
Speaker 3: is really important like this, particularly when information is so
Speaker 3: is so ubiquitous and so accelerated, that when appropriate, you
Speaker 3: got to make sure you're slowing down and making the
Speaker 3: right policy decisions, that you're acting not so much in
Speaker 3: reaction to what's in the news environment, but what you
Speaker 3: actually need to do on the field of battle or
Speaker 3: in the information space. Make no mistake, and we saw
Speaker 3: this in twenty fourteen in the Gaza war. The information
Speaker 3: the narrative war was just as important as the bombs
Speaker 3: that were dropping and the explosions that were going off.
Speaker 3: That will be even more the case here in terms
Speaker 3: of making sure that you know that there is a
Speaker 3: common set of narratives about who's that fault here, who
Speaker 3: are the victims, and what needs to be done to
Speaker 3: move this forward.
Speaker 4: John Kravy, There's been a lot of discussion around the
Speaker 4: six billion dollars that the US released to unfroze.
Speaker 5: I should say.
Speaker 4: For Tehran.
Speaker 5: It has not been released yet.
Speaker 4: I've seen some of the comments that you and others
Speaker 4: have made in the administration saying that not a petty off.
Speaker 4: It's actually been transferred. However, what is the discussion around
Speaker 4: refreezing it. How likely and realistic is it that this
Speaker 4: administration will refreeze that six billion dollars.
Speaker 3: We don't have a policy decision on that to speak
Speaker 3: to you right now. It has always been the case
Speaker 3: that that money could have could be frozen at any time.
Speaker 3: We said that when we send it over to Cutter
Speaker 3: and made it available to the Iranians. It's also important
Speaker 3: to remember that the regime, even though none of it's
Speaker 3: been spent yet, but even if some had been, the
Speaker 3: regime never sees a dime of it. They never get
Speaker 3: their hands on it. It goes right to vendors that
Speaker 3: we approve who buy the humanitarian goods and ship them
Speaker 3: into Iran for direct access to the Iranian people. The
Speaker 3: regime will never see a sin of this.
Speaker 4: A lot of people have said that this is sort
Speaker 4: of just a distraction from the real issue, which is
Speaker 4: that essentially Iran is getting a ton of money through
Speaker 4: the exports of oil, particularly to China, despite sanctions, and
Speaker 4: the sanctions have been somewhat lightened, how much does the
Speaker 4: US talk about enforcing the sanctions in a more significant
Speaker 4: way or the ineffectiveness of those sanctions.
Speaker 3: I would push back a little bit on the idea
Speaker 3: that sanctions have been enlightened. We have not lightened any
Speaker 3: of the sanctions. In fact, we've added additional sanctions, some
Speaker 3: four hundred sanctions on Iran just since the beginning of
Speaker 3: this administration, and we're absolutely committed to full and total enforcement.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 3: Obviously, other nations have to enforce their sanctions as well,
Speaker 3: and certainly we talk with them about that, but the
Speaker 3: United States has not backed off on any sanctions. Quite
Speaker 3: the contrary, We've added and increased our enforcement capability. Not
Speaker 3: to mention, we have increased our military presence in the
Speaker 3: Gulf region and now of course in the Eastern med
Speaker 3: to deter would be actors like Iran who might want
Speaker 3: to try to take advantage of the situation.
Speaker 4: So far, there has been a distinction drawn by both
Speaker 4: US and Israeli official saying that while it is clear
Speaker 4: that Iran has been involved in backing Hamas financially, it
Speaker 4: is unclear whether they were directly involved in orchestrating this
Speaker 4: particular attack. What is the difference from a perspective? What
Speaker 4: would the US do and Israel do should Iran be
Speaker 4: determined to have been intimately connected with orchestrating this attack.
Speaker 3: I won't get into speculating about what policy decisions we
Speaker 3: might or might not make based on where the information
Speaker 3: and the intelligence leads us. All I can do is
Speaker 3: reiterate what we've been saying.
Speaker 4: We haven't seen.
Speaker 3: Any specific tactical intelligence or information evidence that points to
Speaker 3: Iran's participation in these particular attacks. Now clearly, and we've
Speaker 3: made no bones about it, that there is already and
Speaker 3: has been for a long time, a degree of complicity
Speaker 3: by Iran here because they've been supporting Hamas for many years,
Speaker 3: Training capabilities, resourcing, certainly rhetorically in just the last twenty
Speaker 3: four hours of Supreme leaders out there praising this attack
Speaker 3: by Hamas. So there's a degree of complicity, but we
Speaker 3: just haven't found any correct evidence. And quite frankly, now
Speaker 3: there have our Israeli counterparts, Emal Kirby.
Speaker 2: With great respect, and I don't want you to give
Speaker 2: away the family secrets. But the conventional effort is like
Speaker 2: eboeing this century E three intelligence aircraft. You put a
Speaker 2: couple of them up in the air and gather intelligence.
Speaker 2: This is two million people in a highly urban landscape,
Speaker 2: squeezed into a geography that is two Washington d c's.
Speaker 2: How do you prosecute intelligence against an enemy sandwiched in
Speaker 2: among two million people?
Speaker 1: Very difficult, very difficult to do.
Speaker 3: I won't speak for the Israelis, and of course you
Speaker 3: know this is really for them to talk about. We will,
Speaker 3: obviously will and continue to share intelligence with them and
Speaker 3: offer them help in intelligence gathering, as of course we will,
Speaker 3: we always do, but it'll be a task really for
Speaker 3: them to work on. But it is very difficult, very dense,
Speaker 3: very as you said, urban and very very heavily populated,
Speaker 3: and Hamas this is just another example of their barbarity,
Speaker 3: using Palestinians that live in gata as human shields, hiding
Speaker 3: in mosques and residential bid buildings and hospitals as command centers.
Speaker 3: I mean, this is what makes it very, very difficult
Speaker 3: for precise targeting ERMA.
Speaker 2: One final question, and I must speak to the navy
Speaker 2: that gerald Ford is in the area. Is it properly staffed?
Speaker 2: Is this a US Navy that can develop the manpower,
Speaker 2: the sea power to staff not only that aircraft carrier
Speaker 2: but the many other ships involved.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the gerald Ford care Strike Group is now in
Speaker 3: the Eastern Mediterranean. As you rightly said, it's not just
Speaker 3: the aircraft carrier and the embarked air wing of more
Speaker 3: than eighty aircraft, but it is several ships and around
Speaker 3: it in its periphery. They are all fully manned, they're
Speaker 3: all fully trained, they're all fully ready and fully armed
Speaker 3: to look after American national security interests in the region.
Speaker 3: That was one of the messages that the President wanted
Speaker 3: to send by moving those forces there, that nobody should
Speaker 3: take advantage of the situation in Israel, and that the
Speaker 3: United States will always make sure that our national security
Speaker 3: interests are first and foremost as well Edmial.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much.
Speaker 2: John Curry of the National Security Council. A different voice now,
Speaker 2: an important voice, Cecy Lovely, totally.
Speaker 1: I'll get that right. Help me here.
Speaker 2: Lisa Israeli, Ambassador of the United Kingdom, joins us this
Speaker 2: morning in her busy schedule as well.
Speaker 1: Ambassador.
Speaker 2: Six years ago, in the conversation of the politics of
Speaker 2: Israel in the United States, you spoke about Jews in America.
Speaker 1: Leading convenient lives.
Speaker 2: I thought it was a brilliant comment of the distance
Speaker 2: of Israel from Judaism in America. Speaking of convenient lives
Speaker 2: in America? Are our convenient lives? Have they been shattered?
Speaker 6: I think in a way every Jew in the world
Speaker 6: his life's being shattered after what happened in the last
Speaker 6: forty eight hours in Israel. I want to tell you
Speaker 6: from a personal stories because for me, I've been in
Speaker 6: Israel when the war started, and my husband and my
Speaker 6: two daughters are still in Israel. I just received my
Speaker 6: daughters in a shelter at the moment because Tel Aviv
Speaker 6: is under a rockets attack at the moment as we speak,
Speaker 6: and this is horrendous. We've never seen anything like that,
Speaker 6: and I'm speaking as someone who has experienced I was
Speaker 6: part of the Israeli government. I've seen terror attacks in
Speaker 6: my life, and I must say this is unprecedented, the
Speaker 6: way Hamas barbarically acted against children, against young women. We're
Speaker 6: speaking here about war crimes being committed by Hamas in
Speaker 6: the last forty eight hours. The Israelis and the international
Speaker 6: community are exposed to those. I don't even have the
Speaker 6: words to explain. How about those atrocities are and the
Speaker 6: videos on social media that I'm sure you've seen some
Speaker 6: of it. I've just seen of a young Israeli child
Speaker 6: walking in Gaza and Palestinian children are bitting him up.
Speaker 6: Those are things, I mean, think about. It reminds us
Speaker 6: dark times in the Jewish history, and this is our obligation,
Speaker 6: our first obligation to fight back and to make sure
Speaker 6: Hamas will never have the ability to act against Israelis.
Speaker 5: Ambassador, how are.
Speaker 4: You responding to the fact that this is really creating
Speaker 4: a whole host of tensions around the world that have
Speaker 4: become sort of ethnically focused on both sides. It really
Speaker 4: has erupted debates and protests and anger.
Speaker 5: On both sides.
Speaker 4: How would you like to angle the conversation to be
Speaker 4: able to foster something more productive.
Speaker 6: I think that this is time to fight and to
Speaker 6: defend the people of Israel.
Speaker 5: And I think.
Speaker 6: Whoever saw the fact that a thousand Israelis were killed
Speaker 6: in cold blood cannot speak now about both sides. There
Speaker 6: is one side here. Who's the side that once freedom, democracy,
Speaker 6: cares about human rights, cares about people's life, which is
Speaker 6: the Israeli side.
Speaker 5: And there is the other side. This is good versus evil.
Speaker 6: This is so clear here that we are fighting in
Speaker 6: one of Israel's darkest moments. We are fighting evil that
Speaker 6: the world haven't seen since the Second World War, and
Speaker 6: we need to fight it. It's a terror organization recognized
Speaker 6: in the US and in the UK. And you know,
Speaker 6: many people are comparing to nine to eleven, and I
Speaker 6: heard many people that are making the equivalent numbers with
Speaker 6: the proportion. When you think about Israel as a tiny country,
Speaker 6: just nine million people, it's actually ten times of nine
Speaker 6: to eleven. And the disaster that the country is experiencing.
Speaker 6: This is something that any country in the world should
Speaker 6: support Israel. Now we've seen Israeli flags here in London.
Speaker 6: We saw the British Parliament colors itself in blue and white.
Speaker 6: We saw number ten Downing Street with a huge Israeli
Speaker 6: flag projected on. This is the time to support Israel.
Speaker 6: The international community should understand that if Israel is not protected,
Speaker 6: then the whole Western civilization is not protected, because those
Speaker 6: horrible things backed by Iran can happen everywhere.
Speaker 4: Ambassadora, totally, what do you make of some of the
Speaker 4: reports of Qatar, of the United Arab Emirates of Egypt
Speaker 4: even acting as some sort of intermediary to negotiate hostage releases.
Speaker 6: Hostage release is a very very important mission at the moment.
Speaker 6: We call again Hamas to release every single individual, children, women,
Speaker 6: elderly women that were kidnapped by Hamas.
Speaker 5: Some of them were tortured.
Speaker 6: And we've seen horrible, horrible again videos and images that
Speaker 6: are coming from Yaza, and they are committing those war
Speaker 6: crimes and the world must stop them to commit those
Speaker 6: war crimes. They need to release the people being kidnapped.
Speaker 2: Ambassador, your politics is clearly to the right, that is
Speaker 2: the way. It is a stole within the Israeli media
Speaker 2: and of course in the United Kingdom.
Speaker 6: Let me help you with that, I'm ambassador. According to
Speaker 6: the Israeli system. When you become a diplomat.
Speaker 1: You're represent I understand that.
Speaker 7: I don't.
Speaker 5: I don't, I don't follow at the moment, you.
Speaker 6: Know the Israeli politics as a politicians, I don't understand
Speaker 6: representing Israel.
Speaker 2: And Bessadors talking to our Stuart Wallace about this news
Speaker 2: of a coalition or combined government within Israel.
Speaker 1: That is in your wheelhouse.
Speaker 2: Can that be successful and how will a combination of
Speaker 2: Israeli politics be successful in prosecuting this war.
Speaker 6: So, first of all, it's clear both to the Prime
Speaker 6: Minister and to the leaders of opposition that there was
Speaker 6: never bigger necessity for unity government in Israel than at
Speaker 6: this moment. And I speak on behalf ever Israeli Israelis
Speaker 6: are united now. Israeli's fight together, shoulder to shoulder. We
Speaker 6: see so many gestures coming from Israelis want to support
Speaker 6: our soldiers, want to support the people that need help
Speaker 6: at the moment in Israel, that are in the front line.
Speaker 6: So they want to see the same reflection in our politics.
Speaker 6: And I'm sure that the unity government will happen and
Speaker 6: it will be the reality.
Speaker 5: I hope sooner.
Speaker 2: The better ambassador, the Arab community speaks to different sets
Speaker 2: or different cohorts of Palestinians. Can the Arab nations assist
Speaker 2: Israel in speaking the Palestine away from Hamas?
Speaker 5: You know, this is not something new.
Speaker 6: I mean, this is a process being going on over
Speaker 6: a generation. And in the last few years, as you know,
Speaker 6: there were dramatic breakthroughs between Israel and our world with
Speaker 6: the Abraham Accords, with the ongoing negotiation with Saudi.
Speaker 5: So we are in.
Speaker 6: Times where our world wants to be close to Israel
Speaker 6: and the Middle East is changing. Unfortunately, this radical ideology
Speaker 6: that Hamas is leading based on isis mentality, this jihadi ideology.
Speaker 6: The look at Tamas charter, look at what there they
Speaker 6: want to do. They want to kill basically every single Jew.
Speaker 6: They don't they don't recognize the right of Israel to exist.
Speaker 6: So when this is Hamas ideology, this is ideology must
Speaker 6: be fight. You can't negotiate with these people, you can't
Speaker 6: have peace with Hamas. You need to fight back because
Speaker 6: they started this war and Israel will win this war.
Speaker 4: Ambassador totally, what do you make of some of the
Speaker 4: discussion around Iran And there's been a lot of dancing
Speaker 4: around you know that they have backed Hamas, but that
Speaker 4: they weren't necessarily directly involved in executing it or orchestrating it.
Speaker 4: How important is that going to be the determination of
Speaker 4: that to determine the next step for the Israeli government.
Speaker 6: Well, obviously Iran is involved, and obviously Iran is the
Speaker 6: big brain behind activating its proxies. But at the moment
Speaker 6: we have this war to win. The war against Iran
Speaker 6: is something bigger than that. But the international community should
Speaker 6: know the real face of Iran and its proxies through
Speaker 6: those atrocities that Hamas committed in Israeli innocent people, including
Speaker 6: children and elderly. I just can I say something, just
Speaker 6: because my country is now in a point where a thousand,
Speaker 6: almost a thousand funerals are going to take place in
Speaker 6: the coming few days. This is a number we've never
Speaker 6: seen in our lifetime in one day. The President said
Speaker 6: yesterday that since the Holocaust, we never experienced a reality
Speaker 6: where so many Jews were killed in one day. And
Speaker 6: I'm looking at those stories. The Times has in the
Speaker 6: front page the ked And family, Jonathan and Tamal, the
Speaker 6: beautiful twins, their son, they were all murdered in one day,
Speaker 6: think about those families that were destroyed because of this
Speaker 6: barbaric attack. I think this is the date to mourn
Speaker 6: with the Israelis that lost their dear ones they loved once,
Speaker 6: those children being executed in front of their parents, those
Speaker 6: are days to support Israel, and I think this is
Speaker 6: why I'm coming here to speak to you and all
Speaker 6: the people that care about the future Western civilization. Israel
Speaker 6: is in the frontline of this Western civilization, surrounded by
Speaker 6: very radical people, and we need to fight back and
Speaker 6: we need the world support in this very justified war.
Speaker 2: Ambassador, thank you so much for joining Bloomberg today. Ambassador
Speaker 2: hotol Israelly, Ambassador to the United Kingdom, and our Queen
Speaker 2: Victoria Street Studios.
Speaker 8: With the Surround the Table. Stuart Kaiser had a US
Speaker 8: secrety trading strategy over City, said this a few times
Speaker 8: already this week. We'd be waking up on Monday talking
Speaker 8: about the jobs report from Friday, the fact that the
Speaker 8: data is good and we're talking about something, ask we
Speaker 8: just sit on the data for a moment. Good news,
Speaker 8: good news for the team. You've said that a few times.
Speaker 8: It look like it was on Friday.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think we're still in that camp. I was
Speaker 9: a little surprised by the response on Friday. I thought,
Speaker 9: with the jobs over that was so strong, you know,
Speaker 9: we might see bond volatility kind of hold equities back
Speaker 9: for a bit. It held them back for about fifteen minutes,
Speaker 9: and then you know, we kind of went back to
Speaker 9: one more operation. So as we sort of said, Friday
Speaker 9: encapsulated our view on how markets are going to respond
Speaker 9: to this data, which is, if the data is very strong, initially,
Speaker 9: you might get yield higher and that could be a
Speaker 9: headwind for equities. But big picture, equities like a stronger economy,
Speaker 9: and you would expect them to kind of, you know,
Speaker 9: reorient to that as well. And I think both both
Speaker 9: pay rolls at the ISM report last week, you know,
Speaker 9: kind of played into that narrative.
Speaker 2: Start Upsico reports third quarter results, raises full year EPs,
Speaker 2: and provides initial constructive twenty twenty four outlook. I'm going
Speaker 2: to go back to your phrase, which I love it.
Speaker 2: It's a typical phraseency from a.
Speaker 1: Guy like you. Solid growth. Okay, what does that mean?
Speaker 2: I mean you are the optimist people right now are
Speaker 2: scared stiff for eight different reasons to find solid.
Speaker 9: I think for at this point solid would be, you know,
Speaker 9: you don't go into recession, right, you get an actual
Speaker 9: soft landing that doesn't include negative growth from a job's perspective.
Speaker 9: You know that's going to be you know, payrolls stay
Speaker 9: stay positive, unemployment rates stays below four and a half percent,
Speaker 9: and you can get kind of a real soft landing.
Speaker 9: I think you know your comments on PEPSI. I think
Speaker 9: the probably most important thing there is they're talking about
Speaker 9: twenty four right, and you know, if Corporate America has
Speaker 9: to do what the FED did, which was basically revised
Speaker 9: up twenty twenty four, I think that's your goal case.
Speaker 9: If they re made very cautious on that growth, you know,
Speaker 9: going into next year, then we'll probably have something to
Speaker 9: worry about.
Speaker 2: And Lisa just headline, I missed this Within all the
Speaker 2: newsflow we've got, PepsiCo still sees fiscal year organic revenue
Speaker 2: growth of ten percent. I three years ago, I never
Speaker 2: envisioned that, not once double digit revenue growth.
Speaker 1: That's stunning.
Speaker 4: This is the reason why the idea of them revising
Speaker 4: their expectations upward the similar to the FED, you think
Speaker 4: is good news. How important is JP Morgan and their
Speaker 4: earnings on Friday going to be in setting your expectations
Speaker 4: and setting your forecasts.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 9: I think the bank earners in general, you're going to
Speaker 9: be very very important. You know, what do they do
Speaker 9: on reserves again will be important. You know, how do
Speaker 9: they talk about the deal calendar? I think is going
Speaker 9: to be incredibly important. And you know, we've had a
Speaker 9: lot of headlines recently on capital requirements. You know how
Speaker 9: they kind of message that I think will be important
Speaker 9: as well. You know, banks have been a really really
Speaker 9: tricky sector. I think folks are frustrated that yields are
Speaker 9: rising and banks aren't performing as well. I think the
Speaker 9: deal calendar, I think the capital overhang and the fact
Speaker 9: that the curve is still inverted. Probably those three things
Speaker 9: are playing into this. And then there's just underlying credit
Speaker 9: risks whe people are worried about on a go forward basis.
Speaker 5: Are you worried about credit risk?
Speaker 4: Are you worried about the fact that so many companies
Speaker 4: are just holding on and not borrowing for as long
Speaker 4: as they possibly can because of what we're dealing with
Speaker 4: in terms of higher borrowing costs. Once they have to
Speaker 4: do that, then not only will you see credit distress,
Speaker 4: you will also see these banks have a knemic deal
Speaker 4: flow on multiple levels.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 9: Look, I think the credit thing is a little bit tricky.
Speaker 9: Everybody's worried about their ability to write refinance, but if
Speaker 9: you look at the timing of it, a lot of
Speaker 9: it doesn't happen for a couple three years, you know.
Speaker 9: So we're getting really worked up about something that isn't
Speaker 9: isn't really immediate. So I think from my perspective, what
Speaker 9: we're worried about is is actually credit event type stuff.
Speaker 9: Do we see losses in the commercial real estate sector?
Speaker 9: Do we see companies have trouble either selling assets or
Speaker 9: refinancing that actually.
Speaker 7: Have to do it now?
Speaker 9: Unfortunately, we tried to narrow that list. We got only
Speaker 9: about twenty five stocks that really have have you know,
Speaker 9: near and dear type refinancing risks. So we're worried about it,
Speaker 9: but it does feel like, you know, maybe we're worried
Speaker 9: about it a little too early at this point.
Speaker 8: For you're saying that high for longer isn't a problem
Speaker 8: anytime soon.
Speaker 9: It would appear in that it would appear not right.
Speaker 9: You know, a lot of the obviously, the S and
Speaker 9: P is more of an investment gree corporate. You know
Speaker 9: a lot of those folks have refined and also locked
Speaker 9: in and extended hy you borrowers I think tried to
Speaker 9: do that as well. So it is a risk obviously.
Speaker 9: You know, some companies need to refine. It only takes one, right,
Speaker 9: It takes one company to have difficulty doing that, and
Speaker 9: then it can kind of snowball a bit. But if
Speaker 9: you look at the timing of their needs to refinance,
Speaker 9: it's not something that's really going to hit you in
Speaker 9: the next six to twelve months.
Speaker 1: Joah.
Speaker 2: We talk about all this esoteric stuff. Mostly it comes
Speaker 2: down do you have to pick? Am I going to
Speaker 2: buy the potato chip company? Am I going to buy
Speaker 2: the good people from Atlanta? And you know, in every
Speaker 2: stock selection you have to make a choice. Never did
Speaker 2: I think the choice would be this broad. Over the
Speaker 2: last decade, Pepsi is clean, Coca Cola's clocked by what
Speaker 2: we call three hundred and fifty five basis points. That's
Speaker 2: three point six percent return per year.
Speaker 8: So that's that is a chip company beating Atlanta.
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, Coke zero is like you know what, But
Speaker 2: in Stuart's world, this.
Speaker 1: Is how you keep your job is you got to
Speaker 1: pick you know pepsi over coke? Yeah, coke, no pepsi?
Speaker 8: Okay, got no idea?
Speaker 7: What this is gone? Now?
Speaker 8: Thank you Jit conscious City question.
Speaker 1: Right now. And this is a great honor. Stephen A.
Speaker 2: Cook, a senior fellow of Middle East and Africa Studies
Speaker 2: at the Consul on Foreign Relations. It's unfortunate that he
Speaker 2: and I speak only when the world is blowing up,
Speaker 2: or his world is blowing up. The definitive book on
Speaker 2: Turkey is false down. And this June we will celebrate
Speaker 2: the end of the end of ambition. How America should
Speaker 2: move forward in the Middle East. Steven, thank you so
Speaker 2: much for joining us today. I want to go to
Speaker 2: the ambition of the President this morning. He's going to
Speaker 2: speak here. We have to recalibrate an ambition with all
Speaker 2: the legacy of forty eight, sixty seven, seventy three. What
Speaker 2: should be America's ambition day four of this war.
Speaker 10: Well, it's clear that the President is going to throw
Speaker 10: all of his support to Israel. Already there is actually
Speaker 10: bipartisan support for anything that the Israelis need resupply. They
Speaker 10: will need a resupply of iron dome interceptors, and there
Speaker 10: is an aircraft carrier battlegroup moving into the eastern Mediterranean.
Speaker 10: That is clearly a warning to Iran and his law
Speaker 10: not to widen this conflict. That would be the nightmare
Speaker 10: scenario for the Israelis. So the United States is getting
Speaker 10: indirectly or directly involved, and I think it's an appropriate
Speaker 10: policy for the United States.
Speaker 7: The question will be is as this.
Speaker 10: Conflict goes on, the Israelis are clearly gearing up for
Speaker 10: a major ground invasion, infantry in the Gaza Strip, occupation
Speaker 10: of the Gaza Strip for periods of time. How long
Speaker 10: will the international community remain staunchly behind the Israel's operation.
Speaker 10: I think the Israelis have a lot of leeway with
Speaker 10: this president in particular, and after how many Israelis were
Speaker 10: killed in the opening stages of this conflict. But one
Speaker 10: can't imagine given the past pattern of events, as Israelis
Speaker 10: prosecute their operations and more innocent Palestinians were killed, that
Speaker 10: there will be pressure Israelis to move off.
Speaker 2: Steve and to borrow from Mahada Abaden. Is this an
Speaker 2: Iran resurgent? I mean, I look at it around and
Speaker 2: I say, this is a complete surprise for so many
Speaker 2: of Hamas, but maybe also a complete surprise of Iran.
Speaker 1: Is it Iran resurgent?
Speaker 10: Well, certainly Iran is playing the role of an agent
Speaker 10: of chaos in the region. I think the administration's efforts
Speaker 10: to modify Iranian behavior through diplomacy through incentives just does
Speaker 10: not work. And I think it should be clear to
Speaker 10: everybody by now that trying to engage the Iranians, trying
Speaker 10: to beget goodwill through goodwill, is not a fruitful avenue
Speaker 10: to pursue. The Iranians are not willing to reciprocate. They
Speaker 10: want to push the United States out of the region,
Speaker 10: and they want to confront Israel. And this is the
Speaker 10: result of it. And the sooner we all come to
Speaker 10: that conclusion, the better off will all be able to
Speaker 10: clearer policies towards Iran will come into view.
Speaker 4: Stephen, it feels like there is a feeling that Iran
Speaker 4: was involved. Yesterday, Jean was talking with Ron Dermer about
Speaker 4: this about how as they get more information they are
Speaker 4: real saying that maybe there was a more direct role
Speaker 4: from Iran. Is there just simply a reluctance to say
Speaker 4: it out loud because then it would necessitate a response
Speaker 4: that does escalate the conflict to such a degree that
Speaker 4: it puts it in dangerous territory.
Speaker 7: I think that's exactly right.
Speaker 10: I think all the publicly available indicators would suggest that
Speaker 10: the Iranians were involved. The meetings between the Kudz Forces
Speaker 10: Commander Left Spring and Hamasis Islamic chi Had and his Belah.
Speaker 10: The kind of quantum leap and in terms of tactics
Speaker 10: and complexity of the operation that began on Saturday, has
Speaker 10: all the hallmarks of actually his Belah, Iran's primary proxy
Speaker 10: throughout the region. The unusual activity of the Supreme Leader
Speaker 10: on social media last week talking about the the Zionist
Speaker 10: entity dying, and then of course Hamas itself thanking the
Speaker 10: Islamic Republic for its weaponry and support for the operation.
Speaker 10: If though the Israels publicly pain the Iranians, it does
Speaker 10: call for direct engagement.
Speaker 7: Kinetic action against the Rans.
Speaker 10: Now, of course, these Reels and the Runans are engaged
Speaker 10: in a shadow war throughout the region anyway, but this
Speaker 10: would be a step up in a real confrontation, and
Speaker 10: one has to be sure that the United States and
Speaker 10: Israeli are engaged in conversations about the what if.
Speaker 4: Here in your recent article, Stephen in CFR you wrote
Speaker 4: that under these circumstances, no foreign government, including the US,
Speaker 4: will have any leverage on Israel to respond with restraint.
Speaker 4: Where is the rest of the Middle East on this?
Speaker 4: We've heard about the United Arab Emirates, We've heard about Egypt,
Speaker 4: We've heard about Cutter trying to negotiate some sort of
Speaker 4: deal to release the hostages. Seems like that's a no
Speaker 4: go based on both sides and some of the rhetoric there.
Speaker 4: What are people doing to try to prevent a full
Speaker 4: out Middle East war that does involve a great deal
Speaker 4: of nations.
Speaker 10: Well, there's not a lot that they can do. I
Speaker 10: think this is one of the problems is that publicly,
Speaker 10: Arab governments have to issue these kind of statements that
Speaker 10: are run from ambiguous to condemnation of Israeli conduct. Now, Israelis,
Speaker 10: of course have a lot to answer for their conduct
Speaker 10: in the West Bank and the cause of the strip
Speaker 10: over many years, but of course that's obviously no excuse
Speaker 10: for the butchery of innocence. So in behind the scenes
Speaker 10: they are seeking the escalation, but of course many of
Speaker 10: them remain on Israel's side here, so again they will
Speaker 10: the Israelis will have a certain amount of leadway in
Speaker 10: order to prosecute this campaign, but of course, as the
Speaker 10: civilians suffer, there will in time be lots of pressure
Speaker 10: for the Israelis to back off.
Speaker 7: I think the.
Speaker 10: Israeli public is demanding the destruction of Hamas, and that's
Speaker 10: going to give the Israelis further ability to resist international
Speaker 10: pressure that will come from both its neighbors as well
Speaker 10: as Europe and some quarters in the United States as
Speaker 10: this operation continues.
Speaker 8: Saman thank you for your insight this morning. I appreciate it.
Speaker 8: Stemen Cook the an soil on from relations. Congressman Frenchhill
Speaker 8: joined us right now. Congressman, a deeply emotional time for
Speaker 8: everyone involved, even though it's looking God from the outside
Speaker 8: looking in. Congressman, if you had an intelligence report, a briefing.
Speaker 11: Just yet, Jonathan, we have an intelligence committee meeting on
Speaker 11: Israel this afternoon at three pm, so that we can
Speaker 11: pose all these questions that so many of us have,
Speaker 11: which is, how did this happen and we weren't aware
Speaker 11: of it in advance. I think that's a key question
Speaker 11: that everybody's trying to get the right answer to.
Speaker 8: There is something very odd about what we're being told
Speaker 8: currently from the administration. It was only a week or
Speaker 8: so ago that we heard from Jake Sullivan, the National
Speaker 8: Security Advisor, who is optimistic about developments in the Middle
Speaker 8: East and said the Middle East region is quite today
Speaker 8: than it has been in two decades. At the same time,
Speaker 8: we've heard from Secretary blinkn who said we've been concerned
Speaker 8: about the risk of instability for many many month between
Speaker 8: Israelis and Palestinians. Congressman, which one was it?
Speaker 11: I think it's I've traveled in the region since the
Speaker 11: first of May. I've been in Aman twice, Jerusalem, riod
Speaker 11: Urbil Baghdad, Ankara, Turkey talking about the region, talking about
Speaker 11: the need for America's reassurance of the region that we're
Speaker 11: not pulling out and that we're a true partner. But
Speaker 11: there's some key issues. First, the Arab League has readmitted
Speaker 11: Asad back into the Arab League, even though he's done
Speaker 11: nothing to curtail his murder of his own citizens, his
Speaker 11: partnership with the Iranian Shia militia and the Russians, and
Speaker 11: killing Syrians, and exporting captagon, which is a deadly and
Speaker 11: addictive drug that he's manufacturing and selling to the Gulf States.
Speaker 11: And look, I was pleased that the President has begun
Speaker 11: to make progress with Saudi Arabia on potentially bringing them
Speaker 11: into the Abraham Accords initiated by President Trump. And for
Speaker 11: some of us, this looks like a direct response to
Speaker 11: the effort that Iran is throwing a disruption by a
Speaker 11: full scale attack if we find it to be true
Speaker 11: that they back Hamas, but they've been a financier of Hamas,
Speaker 11: They've been a founder of Hamas and Hesba Lah in Lebanon.
Speaker 11: So all fingers are pointed in that direction. But we
Speaker 11: want to get the validation Congress Hill.
Speaker 2: Part of this is a stretch of five years, ten years,
Speaker 2: fifteen years. Dare I say back to nineteen seventy three,
Speaker 2: which is an America balancing between real politic and a
Speaker 2: focus in some would say, critics would say overfocus.
Speaker 1: On human rights.
Speaker 2: Frame how that debate's going to go as you go
Speaker 2: to this security meeting this afternoon and frankly in the
Speaker 2: coming days of war.
Speaker 11: Right, So, look, if you want peace in Israel, you've
Speaker 11: got to have a partner to negotiate with. And that's
Speaker 11: a really important thing I think for Americans to understand
Speaker 11: there is no one Palestinian authority that fully represents the
Speaker 11: citizens that live in Gaza and those in the West Bank.
Speaker 11: Hamas is essentially at political war with FATA, which is
Speaker 11: my mood of ASA's party in the West Bank. So
Speaker 11: it's very difficult to get a two state solution when
Speaker 11: you don't really have two states that you're trying to
Speaker 11: negotiate with. That's why the Abraham Accords approach, the involvement
Speaker 11: of Saudi Arabia, I thought it could be a breakthrough
Speaker 11: in trying to bring peace to the West Bank. But
Speaker 11: that doesn't really affect the fact that Hamas, which controls Gaza,
Speaker 11: doesn't agree with their other Palestinian brothers and sisters in
Speaker 11: the West Bank, and they're certainly fully committed to war
Speaker 11: with Israel.
Speaker 2: Well, okay, we're with Israel. What do you expect to
Speaker 2: see at this meeting today? I mean, you've been in
Speaker 2: these meeting of zillion times as well. You're going to
Speaker 2: be briefed then what?
Speaker 11: Well, I think we're going to find out. First of
Speaker 11: what's the intelligence say about the partnership that helped AMAS
Speaker 11: carry out was a surprise attack on Israel. So that's
Speaker 11: I think the first thing and the first and most
Speaker 11: important thing. Secondly, what is the response of Israel to
Speaker 11: that attack on their sovereign land? And what can the
Speaker 11: United States do to stand with our ironclad ally and
Speaker 11: partner in the regent to repel it. And then of
Speaker 11: course we've got the issue Tom that's very concerning to
Speaker 11: all of us, which are Americans that are held as
Speaker 11: hostages or Americans that have been killed. And that will
Speaker 11: be a very important decision for the President and I
Speaker 11: look forward to his assessment on what the American reaction
Speaker 11: should be to that.
Speaker 4: Congressman, can the US and leash aid to Israel without
Speaker 4: a House speaker, without a functioning House?
Speaker 11: Yeah, thanks, Lisa. Look, last two weeks ago, we passed
Speaker 11: the State and Foreign Operations Appropriation across the House floor,
Speaker 11: and we passed the Defense Appropriation Bill across the House floor.
Speaker 11: Billions of dollars in those bills for our military partnership
Speaker 11: with Iran and to counter terrorism like a moss and
Speaker 11: money in State and foreign opts to enhance the Abraham
Speaker 11: Accords issue. And we don't support in these bills aid
Speaker 11: to the Palestinian authority either until they rein in this
Speaker 11: kind of behavior. So those bills were important. I wish
Speaker 11: the Senate would take those up. But we need a
Speaker 11: House speaker this week, and we need it soon because
Speaker 11: we want our full legislative body to have the voice
Speaker 11: of the American people. In case President Biden asked the
Speaker 11: House to take action this week, we have to have
Speaker 11: a House speaker.
Speaker 4: Congressman, are your peers, your colleagues in the House and
Speaker 4: their Republican Party willing to tie the idea of Ukraine
Speaker 4: AID and Israel AID together or is there reluctance to
Speaker 4: really go for one and not the other, or simply
Speaker 4: to deal with this issue right now, given how politically
Speaker 4: fraud it is.
Speaker 11: Yeah, well, first, I think we should treat them separately. Personally,
Speaker 11: I'm working very hard in the House to find the
Speaker 11: consensus on the right path forward to support kicking Putin
Speaker 11: out of Ukraine and providing American support to our European
Speaker 11: allies to continue aid to Ukraine. We want transparency, we
Speaker 11: want leadership, we want a strategy to win, of course,
Speaker 11: but America is an indispensable partner in a too in
Speaker 11: that effort. Secondly, on Israel, we need to hear directly
Speaker 11: from the President after this he completes his assessment on
Speaker 11: what we need to do to support our ally Israel
Speaker 11: that we can't do with existing authorities or existing funding.
Speaker 11: I think that remains to be seen, and we'll hear
Speaker 11: from them soon. In the meantime, as I say, we've
Speaker 11: appropriated three point three billion for foreign military sales assistance
Speaker 11: to Israel just two weeks ago, and we appropriated five
Speaker 11: hundred million dollars for the US Israeli Military Cooperation Agreement.
Speaker 11: So there's significant money that's been approved by the House.
Speaker 8: The congressman, speaking of money, this unfrozen six billion dollars
Speaker 8: is getting a ton of attention. Let's work through it together.
Speaker 8: This is the official response from Secretary Blinkin. This is
Speaker 8: what he says about it. Not a single dollar from
Speaker 8: that account has actually been spent today. It's very carefully
Speaker 8: and closely regulated by the Treasury Department to make sure
Speaker 8: that it's only used for food, for medicine, for medical equipment.
Speaker 8: Are we focusing on the right thingcare Congressman, Well, look.
Speaker 11: Let's be clear. Let's say that Iran this year will
Speaker 11: have its largest GDP source about forty five billion dollars
Speaker 11: in oil sales. We're talking about releasing fungible money back
Speaker 11: to the government of Iran, which is a state sponsor
Speaker 11: of terrorism, about six billion dollars related to money from
Speaker 11: oil sales to South Korea. What Secretary Blincoln says is
Speaker 11: true that it can only be released when they make
Speaker 11: a humanitarian or food assistance purchase. But it's still money
Speaker 11: that goes into the treasury in Tehran, and they can
Speaker 11: use other money to fund terrorism because they know that
Speaker 11: six billions coming in. And on top of that, Iraq
Speaker 11: owes Iran thirty one billion dollars, and the United States
Speaker 11: has approved a release of about two or almost three
Speaker 11: billion dollars of natural gas sales money from Iraq to Iran.
Speaker 11: So this is significant money when you think about their
Speaker 11: largest GDP revenue sources about forty five billion, and we're
Speaker 11: talking roughly seventeen billion dollars in total that they're eligible
Speaker 11: to receive through these trust accounts, as you say, for
Speaker 11: a humanitarian or food stuff type purchase. But we're not
Speaker 11: naive here that frees up other money in the Tehran treasury.
Speaker 8: French, thanks for catching up with today. I know the
Speaker 8: intelligence briefing is a little bit later on this afternoon.
Speaker 8: We'd love to catch up with you again afterwards to
Speaker 8: get an idea of what you've heard from the count
Speaker 8: Congressman french Hilldack.
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