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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros.

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Speaker 2: It's time to place your bets to this meet Joey Pig,

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Speaker 2: joe Pisapia.

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Speaker 1: And Week fifteen was a doozy. Oh my goodness.

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Speaker 2: We had the greatest comeback in NFL history in a

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Speaker 2: regular season. We had one of the wackiest endings we'll

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Speaker 2: ever see in a football game between the Las Vegas

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Speaker 2: Raiders and the New England Patriots. And then you had

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Speaker 2: Sunday Night Football and on what was I would call

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Speaker 2: the textbook PI call that did not get called.

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Speaker 1: It was crazy.

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Speaker 2: There was weather, there was snow, there were comebacks, they

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Speaker 2: were upsets as well. How about those Jacksonville Jaguars, Baby

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 1: Let's go.

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Speaker 2: But we're going to break that all down for Week

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Speaker 2: sixteen and what that means to look ahead at these

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Speaker 2: early lines, what we saw, what it means, and the

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Speaker 2: guys helped me do it, of course, Pat fitz Morris

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Speaker 2: and Matthew Friedman. So we're going to get after that.

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Speaker 2: Before we do, gentlemen, we've got one more game. It's

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Speaker 2: Monday Night Football and Pat it's the Packers, obviously your

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Speaker 2: squad here hosting the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are

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Speaker 2: four nine, the Packers are five and eight. Seven point

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Speaker 2: favorites are green Bay will see coming up the buye

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Speaker 2: what they've got. Thirty nine and a half is the

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Speaker 2: number for this one. If you like the Rams for

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Speaker 2: the upset, it's plus two to sixty on the money line.

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Speaker 1: Pat, let's break this down. Any value left on this

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Speaker 1: game tonight or anything specifically you're looking to wager on.

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Speaker 3: I think there is, Joe, I don't like the Rams

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Speaker 3: for the upset. The Rams got the Mayfield miracle in

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Speaker 3: week fifteen? Was that Week fifteen or Week fourteenth?

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Speaker 1: Sorry?

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Speaker 3: To avoid their eighth straight loss. So, like, the Rams

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Speaker 3: are not a good team. They're averaging sixteen point six

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Speaker 3: points a game this season. They're not gonna have Aaron

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Speaker 3: Donald for this. They're defensive stalwarts. It's going to be

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Speaker 3: fifteen degrees at kickoff for this game. I don't see

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Speaker 3: the Rams bad offense functioning at a high level. And

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Speaker 3: that sort of weather, and we talked about this a

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Speaker 3: little on the live stream yesterday, Joe Friedman and I

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Speaker 3: like when you get that kind of weather in Green Bay,

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Speaker 3: the Packers are really used to this. And even though

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Speaker 3: the field has these heating coils underneath, like they're certain

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Speaker 3: type of cleats that you wear for different temperatures and

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Speaker 3: different field conditions. And like the Packers' equipment guys are

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Speaker 3: used to all this, they know what the story is.

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Speaker 3: The Rams equipment guys are not going to like know

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Speaker 3: these things. Like it's much harder to prepare for those

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Speaker 3: types of conditions if you're a warm weather team and

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Speaker 3: just not used to dealing with this at all. So

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Speaker 3: I do think there's value here, you know, I slam

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Speaker 3: the Packers at seven points, and I'm glad that it

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Speaker 3: dropped from seven and a half, you know, getting it

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Speaker 3: at that key number.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I just.

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Speaker 3: I'm certainly not overly confident in the Packers, as you know, Joe,

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Speaker 3: but I like them a lot in this spot against

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Speaker 3: a really depleted Rams team of a really punchless offense.

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Speaker 2: Matthew Freeman, you and I are going to break this

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Speaker 2: game down later this afternoon on the live stream, But

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Speaker 2: for me, this is Christian Watson at plus one forty

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Speaker 2: anytime touchdown scorer, and then that's it. I'm just putting

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Speaker 2: some money down on that and I'm walking away from it.

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Speaker 2: Any quick hits on this game before we move on

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Speaker 2: to the look ahead for Week sixteen.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't hate anytime touchdown score. And I just

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Speaker 5: got to say, you know, we have a Packer's defense

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Speaker 5: that wants to run the ball. They're at home, coming

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Speaker 5: off of the buy, going against a defense that is

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Speaker 5: bad anyway and missing like the entirety of the interior

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Speaker 5: of its defensive line. Like this is just a great

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Speaker 5: spot for the Packers. And Sean McVay, you know, the

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Speaker 5: warm weather Dome coach zero to five against the spread

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Speaker 5: in conditions where the temperature is less than forty degrees.

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Speaker 5: I think this is very much a Packer spot. That said,

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Speaker 5: it does feel disgusting to be betting them at any

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Speaker 5: sort of margin, but I have this projected at minus nine.

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Speaker 2: Now, lots of look ahead weather to come here as

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Speaker 2: we break down the games. Before we do, just a reminder,

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Speaker 2: we are brought to you by bet mgm, the King

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Speaker 2: of sports books. You get a risk free one thousand

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Speaker 2: dollars first bet, plus twenty five dollars after your first

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Speaker 2: bet settles. Essentially, it's the new offer here over a

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Speaker 2: bet MGM. So go to bet mgm, download the up

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Speaker 2: and use the promo code Betting Pros twenty five. That's

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Speaker 2: Betting Pros twenty five when you do and place your

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Speaker 2: bets today, gentlemen, let's kick things off here with that

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville Jaguars. Oh baby, let's go. Joey p was very

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Speaker 2: happy about this Jacksonville upsetting the Dallas Cowboys. I'm sorry

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Speaker 2: for even you know, ear muffs. But the New York

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Speaker 2: Jets will be hosting them this week. They are two

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Speaker 2: point favorites at home. We're not sure if it's gonna

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Speaker 2: be Zach Wilson or Mike White at this point. A

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Speaker 2: close game there for the Lions Jets, but Jacksonville is

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Speaker 2: certainly looking like they're playing their best football on offense

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Speaker 2: and on defense. Trevor Lawrence looks like he is finally

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Speaker 2: coming into his own forty two is the number plus

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Speaker 2: one zero six Friedman, let's start here with you. Jacksonville

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Speaker 2: is on a roll here. Can they continue to do this?

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Speaker 2: Traveling up to cold weather in New York?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I wouldn't surprise if this line actually did close

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Speaker 5: with Jacksonville favored. I have it projected, and I'll just

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Speaker 5: this is gonna be a kind of common theme throughout

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Speaker 5: the rest of the show where I have a lot

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Speaker 5: of the p pretty in line with the market. It's

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Speaker 5: that point of the year. Like last year, I think

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Speaker 5: some of the last week, rather, I think some of

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Speaker 5: the biggest edges had to do in the games where

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Speaker 5: we had backup quarterbacks and so the market wasn't quite

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Speaker 5: gauging accurately the difference between the backup and the starter.

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Speaker 5: That's where most of the edges were. This week we

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Speaker 5: don't have many of those situations, and Week sixteen, the

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Speaker 5: market has a pretty good sense of what all of

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Speaker 5: these teams are. So yeah, this number right now is

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Speaker 5: plus one across the board, plus one at bet MGM.

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Speaker 5: I have it at plus one for the Jags. But

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Speaker 5: just because as you mentioned, how great they have played,

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Speaker 5: the momentum that the Jags have in the market, I

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Speaker 5: would think that this number flips towards the Jags.

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Speaker 2: I would absolutely do it if there's any number to

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Speaker 2: jump on here, and they early look ahead this first game.

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Speaker 1: It's a short week two.

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Speaker 2: That's the only thing you're getting here, so that is

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Speaker 2: the only thing comes into play. Sometimes it's tough for

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Speaker 2: the short week the team that's traveling. That being said,

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Speaker 2: it's also less time for Mike White to get cleared. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: he is clearly the better quarterback. So Pat, what do

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Speaker 2: you make of his game?

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Speaker 5: Here?

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Speaker 2: Is this another one you're kind of where we are

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Speaker 2: where we're jumping on this one early?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it is less time for Mike White to get

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Speaker 3: clear Joe and Zach Wilson though, averaged nine point one

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Speaker 3: yards per pass attempt and had his second three hundred

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Speaker 3: yard game of his career yesterday, So he wasn't what's.

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Speaker 5: That it was not? It was not a good Zach Wilson.

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Speaker 2: That's one where you're watching the lines and not the

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Speaker 2: game on that one, because I know there was some

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Speaker 2: bad throws of that game.

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Speaker 3: Some of the completions were you know, heaves that found

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Speaker 3: their way in again Wilson's spread basket thirty thirty five

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Speaker 3: yards downfield. So I understand, I'm not trying to sell

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Speaker 3: you on Zach Wilson, and I'm.

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Speaker 1: Not getting a quarter here, that's for sure.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not really going to sell you on the

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Speaker 3: over either, because weather conditions are going to probably factor

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Speaker 3: into this one. Right now, I've got it at forty

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Speaker 3: and a half instead of thirty nine and a half.

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Speaker 3: But I'm not inclined about that, especially with Zach Wilson

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Speaker 3: likely to get another start here. The Jaguars did roll

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Speaker 3: up over five hundred yards of offense on the Cowboys, though,

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Speaker 3: That is really impressive, and they ran the ball up

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Speaker 3: between the tackles like effectively for the first time in

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Speaker 3: a long time. So this offense is really humming going

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Speaker 3: against an excellent defense that had Quinn Williams play. There

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Speaker 3: was some question about whether the Jets wrecking ball defensive

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Speaker 3: tackle was going to play yesterday. He did play, So

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Speaker 3: I can't wait to see that matchup of the Jaguars

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Speaker 3: offense and the Jets defense. But as just to echo

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Speaker 3: what Friedman said, and this will be a recurring theme,

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Speaker 3: trying to get early value from these lines is like

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Speaker 3: trying to squeeze blood from a turn up. It's just

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Speaker 3: not there this week.

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Speaker 2: Well you're gonna laugh about this one, guys, because I'm

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Speaker 2: looking at FANDUL right now as we're talking, and the

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Speaker 2: Jags are now minus one and a half there while

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Speaker 2: we were having this conversation, so they obviously listened to

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Speaker 2: the show live. But on top of which it's plus

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Speaker 2: one hundred, So I just bet it real quick there

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Speaker 2: because they're getting plus money on that, which is something

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Speaker 2: you know, I ever really.

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Speaker 4: See very often.

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Speaker 2: So could be an error, could be a mistake, could

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Speaker 2: just be as they're fluctuating through things.

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Speaker 1: But I locked it in. So there you go. Good times.

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Speaker 2: That's why you listen to the show here, folks, that's

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Speaker 2: what you're trying to do. Let's get to the next

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Speaker 2: game on the board here. The New York Giants coming

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Speaker 2: off a big victory, questionable one going against the Minnesota Vikings. Now,

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Speaker 2: the Minnesota Vikings, this game is on Saturday, everybody, so

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Speaker 2: they are the champions of Saturday. The Minnesota Vikings are

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Speaker 2: unbelievable on Saturdays, folks.

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Speaker 1: Just look.

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Speaker 2: I don't know what there is to say else about

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Speaker 2: that game, except the only question that lingers now is

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Speaker 2: after you play such an emotional game like that, is

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Speaker 2: there a letdown? And if so, is this the kind

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Speaker 2: of team that you should not look past? In the

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Speaker 2: New York Football Giants. Are they kind of team that

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Speaker 2: you look ahead there on the Saturday afternoon and you

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Speaker 2: say to yourself, Yeah, I don't know if this is

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Speaker 2: necessarily the next way you want to go about this year?

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Speaker 1: And do you want to get in early here on

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Speaker 1: either of these things.

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Speaker 2: Here, because Pat, when we start to look at this

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Speaker 2: line here three and a half for Minnesota, they're at home,

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Speaker 2: Giants are traveling.

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Speaker 1: Thibodeau is great. Forty seven and a half is the

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Speaker 1: number plus one sixty five on the money lines of Pat.

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Speaker 1: Any early value on this game for you, Oh.

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Speaker 3: Man, I don't think there is, Joe. I mean, like,

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Speaker 3: is there an emotional letdown for the Vikings? Maybe, but

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Speaker 3: I'm sure they're just going to do what the Vikings

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Speaker 3: always do, which is scuff around and then find a

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Speaker 3: way to win a one score game. Every time we're

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Speaker 3: ready to just completely stamp them as a fraud, which

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Speaker 3: again on Saturday it looked like we were very would

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Speaker 3: have been very justified in doing. Then they just storm back.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't like betting the Vikings at this point,

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Speaker 3: just because like they're one of these inexplicable teams that

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Speaker 3: sort of defies all all of the metrics, like to

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Speaker 3: have that record and you know, to be in the

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Speaker 3: twenties in Dboa, it's just something extraordinary is going on

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Speaker 3: with that team this season. So as far as the value, though,

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Speaker 3: like my initial run of projections, I have this like

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Speaker 3: half a point of value on the under. But man,

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Speaker 3: the last six Vikings games have produced sixty three, forty three,

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Speaker 3: fifty nine, forty nine, fifty seven, and seventy five points,

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Speaker 3: and six of their last eight at how them have

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Speaker 3: gone over. So I'm pretty much ripping up the projections

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Speaker 3: in this and you know it might even might even

225
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Speaker 3: take the over on it.

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Speaker 2: Well, they've been this team in the past that's always

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Speaker 2: lost these close games or had these heartbreaking losses, and

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Speaker 2: it seems like everything this year is the opposite. Finally,

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Speaker 2: like carm has kind of caught up to them. This

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Speaker 2: game has moved those was looking at yesterday four and

231
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Speaker 2: a half yesterday before the game is and today obviously

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Speaker 2: a different number we're seeing. We're seeing the three and

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Speaker 2: a half. So it's moved a whole point. For do

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Speaker 2: you see this moving anymore?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, to your point, and the look ahead, this was

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Speaker 5: four and a half, it opened to four. Now it's

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Speaker 5: three and a half this morning. It might continue to

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Speaker 5: move like people like. The market generally does not like

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Speaker 5: the Vikings and it does like the Giants, and so

240
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Speaker 5: maybe it hits three, but I think if it hits

241
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Speaker 5: three at that point Vikings. Money comes in and it

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Speaker 5: meets resistance and goes back to three and a half.

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Speaker 5: So I think three and a half ultimately will be

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Speaker 5: the number. I actually I don't like it, but I

245
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Speaker 5: have value is this is one of the few spots

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Speaker 5: where I do have value on a team, the Vikings here.

247
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Speaker 5: I have this projected at five point twenty five, and

248
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Speaker 5: I didn't adjust them up in the Power ratings after

249
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Speaker 5: last week, Like it wasn't a good performance that they had.

250
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Speaker 5: Great that they were able to come back, but I

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Speaker 5: don't think they really get credit for that, Like you

252
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Speaker 5: shouldn't be down by thirty three points to the lowly Colts.

253
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Speaker 5: The Giants, they get a little bit of credit for

254
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Speaker 5: beating Washington, but you still have in this spot the

255
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Speaker 5: Vikings at home, the Vikings with a full week of

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Speaker 5: rest because they played last week on Saturday, you know,

257
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Speaker 5: the Giants playing on Sunday night football, so like six

258
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Speaker 5: days but a short six days. I think the advantage

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Speaker 5: here actually is with the Vikings. That's it. I haven't

260
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Speaker 5: met it yet because I just don't really trust it.

261
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Speaker 5: I don't want to be on the Vikings, but eventually

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Speaker 5: I think I'm gonna bet this.

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Speaker 4: May I reject for a moment here, Joe.

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Speaker 3: So I've like had that same I don't know, Friedman,

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Speaker 3: some of these lines of late with the Vikings seemed disrespectful,

266
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Speaker 3: like everyone was like, why are they.

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Speaker 4: And then last.

268
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Speaker 3: Week against it like I didn't really buy it. I

269
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Speaker 3: understood the Lions line, but then I saw the line

270
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Speaker 3: for the Colts, and you know, I took it at

271
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Speaker 3: three and a half because I thought that was disrespectful.

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Speaker 3: I got the Vikings at three and a half, and

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Speaker 3: you know it turned out to be pretty spot on.

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Speaker 5: Pretty yeah.

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Speaker 3: So I'm just every time I think I see this

276
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Speaker 3: line and I'm like, wow, even though I think the

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Speaker 3: Vikings are frauds, that seems really disrespectful, and then it

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Speaker 3: winds up not being disrespectful at all. So you know,

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Speaker 3: I do have that urge every time I see a

280
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Speaker 3: Vikings line, like I feel like the Viking should be

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Speaker 3: favored by more at home.

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Speaker 4: But then you know, I just like, I can't do it.

283
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Speaker 4: I can't do it with this team.

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Speaker 2: The Baltimore Ravens will be home hosting the Atlanta Falcons.

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Speaker 2: This one started out at six and a half right now.

286
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Speaker 2: Currently in the consensus on bettingpros dot Com nine to

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Speaker 2: five of the Ravens. They have all sorts of offensive

288
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Speaker 2: problems here the Atlanta Falcons five and nine.

289
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Speaker 1: Desmen Ritter was you know, driving there at the end.

290
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Speaker 2: Unfortunately Drake London couldn't hold onto the football, So alas,

291
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Speaker 2: we'll never know what might have come of that drive.

292
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Speaker 2: But forty is the number for this one plus two

293
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Speaker 2: forty on the money line for the Atlanta Falcons fits.

294
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Speaker 1: Let's talk about this one for a second, because it

295
00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:26,319
Speaker 1: feels as though, you know, the Baltimore Ravens are I

296
00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:27,880
Speaker 1: would say treading water right now.

297
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Speaker 2: I think that's the best way to put it. That

298
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Speaker 2: they don't necessarily look great. The defense, you know, has

299
00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,439
Speaker 2: this moments, but offensively they have just been a mess

300
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Speaker 2: for what seems like two months now. So is this

301
00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:41,439
Speaker 2: just as simple as yeah, the Falcons coming towns to

302
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Speaker 2: get right game, or is this another dangerous game here

303
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Speaker 2: where maybe that's seven is too big of a number.

304
00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:48,120
Speaker 2: Maybe Baltimore still should be the favorite, Maybe they should

305
00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,840
Speaker 2: win at least seven point favorites with the way offensive

306
00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:52,120
Speaker 2: way they operate right now.

307
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Speaker 3: I've been giving the Ravens way too much credit in

308
00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:59,080
Speaker 3: recent weeks show, and you know, like I have enjoyed

309
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Speaker 3: betting the raven at home for a long time and

310
00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:06,079
Speaker 3: it's generally been profitable. In this instance, I still want

311
00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:09,800
Speaker 3: to grab the Ravens at minus seven, hoping that Lamar

312
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Speaker 3: Jackson comes back this week from his spraying pcl and

313
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Speaker 3: even if he doesn't come back, I still think there's

314
00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:21,080
Speaker 3: a chance that they can outclass the Falcons, even though

315
00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:24,400
Speaker 3: they really stumbled around on offense against the Browns, just

316
00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:28,040
Speaker 3: could not get anything going. But Desmond Rider clearly is

317
00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:30,800
Speaker 3: not ready for primetime. I mean, he was thirteen of

318
00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:33,520
Speaker 3: twenty six for ninety seven yards at three point seven

319
00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:34,760
Speaker 3: yards per past at ten.

320
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Speaker 4: And he was sacked four times. So you know, the Falcons.

321
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Speaker 3: Ran the ball effectively, very effectively against the Saints yesterday,

322
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Speaker 3: but I don't think they're going to do that.

323
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Speaker 4: Against the Ravens in Baltimore.

324
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Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm willing to make the leap of faith

325
00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,960
Speaker 3: here at the touchdown, get it before it goes up

326
00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:58,040
Speaker 3: at all on any possible positive Lamar Jackson news, and

327
00:14:58,120 --> 00:14:59,960
Speaker 3: feel like I have a reasonable chance to win that

328
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Speaker 3: that even if Lamar doesn't come back this week.

329
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Speaker 2: Friedman with the way Atlanta likes run on the football too,

330
00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:08,600
Speaker 2: and the lack of offense from Baltimore is the under

331
00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:10,200
Speaker 2: just the safest number here in the forty and just

332
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Speaker 2: stay away from the seven all together.

333
00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:16,280
Speaker 5: Maybe, I mean, I have this actually projected to the over.

334
00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,040
Speaker 5: But the thing is a lot of my projections aren't

335
00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:22,080
Speaker 5: strongly taking into account the weather, and so I know,

336
00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:25,440
Speaker 5: like these projections aren't They're not bettable the way that

337
00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:28,080
Speaker 5: I would want them to be, And I actually I

338
00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,280
Speaker 5: think there is value on the seven. In fact, I

339
00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:33,800
Speaker 5: think at points bet that's where the one six and

340
00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:36,920
Speaker 5: a half is remaining, and I would probably go bet

341
00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:41,080
Speaker 5: that right now. I am assuming that Lamar Jackson comes back.

342
00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,600
Speaker 5: But even if he's not, Yeah, Desmond Ritter looked really

343
00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:48,640
Speaker 5: bad last week, like there's a reason why they weren't

344
00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:52,200
Speaker 5: inserting him into the starting lineup sooner. And this Falcons

345
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,360
Speaker 5: offense is entirely ground based, and they're going against now

346
00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,360
Speaker 5: with Roquan Smith on the Ravens, one of the best

347
00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,360
Speaker 5: run defenses in the league. And so if they have

348
00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:03,720
Speaker 5: a rookie quarterback who really can't do much through the air,

349
00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:07,400
Speaker 5: if they're not able to function on offense at peak capacity,

350
00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,240
Speaker 5: because they're running into the teeth and the defense. I

351
00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:12,840
Speaker 5: still think even if Tyler Huntley is out there, the

352
00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:16,280
Speaker 5: Ravens are probably able to cover. So yeah, I think

353
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:17,880
Speaker 5: I'm probably going to be on the Ravens here, but

354
00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:19,240
Speaker 5: I haven't bet it yet.

355
00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:21,200
Speaker 2: Greatest team in the history of the universe of the

356
00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:24,120
Speaker 2: Detroit Lions. We're now seven and seven. That's right, everybody.

357
00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:26,480
Speaker 2: They were two and a half point favorites. Now they're

358
00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:30,320
Speaker 2: three point favorites this morning going into Carolina. Carolina is

359
00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,120
Speaker 2: five and nine. They are three point home underdogs. Forty

360
00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:34,920
Speaker 2: four and a half is the number for this one

361
00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,800
Speaker 2: plus one thirty if for the Carolina Panthers and the

362
00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:41,240
Speaker 2: upset now Friedman, We've been watching the Lions a long time,

363
00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,640
Speaker 2: all three of us. This is definitely, I was one

364
00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:46,800
Speaker 2: of the most enjoyable Lions teams we've ever seen in

365
00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:47,520
Speaker 2: our lifetime.

366
00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:49,880
Speaker 1: They are fun to watch, they're fun to root for.

367
00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:53,320
Speaker 2: But that being said, is this a classic Lions spot

368
00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,360
Speaker 2: here where you should go in there and just blow

369
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,360
Speaker 2: the doors off. The Carolina Panthers, who aren't a great

370
00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,680
Speaker 2: football team but defensively do have some players here. And

371
00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:03,080
Speaker 2: we know Jared Goff, you know, outside, not the same

372
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 2: quarterback inside. We've seen the stats, we've seen the numbers,

373
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:08,040
Speaker 2: we've seen the offense. We even saw it on Sunday.

374
00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,960
Speaker 2: Are you confident here with the Detroit Lions and this

375
00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:11,720
Speaker 2: number right now?

376
00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,399
Speaker 5: I mean confident? I don't know, but I bet it.

377
00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:20,200
Speaker 5: You know that's a yes, then yeah. I betted a

378
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,480
Speaker 5: two and a half, you know, in the look ahead

379
00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:24,920
Speaker 5: because I just you know, my numbers just tend to

380
00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:26,640
Speaker 5: be high on the Lions, and I thought this number

381
00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:28,639
Speaker 5: probably would get to three, which it has, but I

382
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:30,560
Speaker 5: still see value at the three. I have it projected

383
00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,359
Speaker 5: at four point twenty five. And yeah, as you mentioned,

384
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,919
Speaker 5: Goff historically hasn't been great outside of the Dome. But

385
00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 5: at least I don't think he's going to be in

386
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:42,480
Speaker 5: some of those like weather apocalypse games that we'll probably

387
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,600
Speaker 5: see across the slate, like in Carolina. I mean, it'll

388
00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:47,520
Speaker 5: be colder, the weather's not going to be great, but

389
00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:49,360
Speaker 5: it's not as if I think we're going to see

390
00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:51,679
Speaker 5: like wins of twenty miles per hour or something like

391
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,080
Speaker 5: that in Carolina. So I don't think the weather's going

392
00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:57,560
Speaker 5: to be a major factor for the Lions. I mean,

393
00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,320
Speaker 5: what we've seen out of them over the past last

394
00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:04,160
Speaker 5: six weeks has been pretty incredible, especially offensively. But their

395
00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,080
Speaker 5: defense is also, like here and there, starting to toughen

396
00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:08,960
Speaker 5: up a little bit. So as long as it's not

397
00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,920
Speaker 5: like the worst unit in the league, then that team

398
00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:15,639
Speaker 5: is pretty intriguing. And going against a team that I

399
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,119
Speaker 5: consider I mean, Sam Darnold is their starting quarterback for

400
00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,080
Speaker 5: the Panthers, Like, let's not pretend that they are a

401
00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:22,080
Speaker 5: good team. They're a bad team. They're one of the

402
00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:24,480
Speaker 5: five worst teams in the league. So yeah, I think

403
00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:26,560
Speaker 5: even on the road, the Lions should be favored by

404
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:27,600
Speaker 5: more than three points here.

405
00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 2: They do have five wins, though, just saying somehow they

406
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:34,600
Speaker 2: eked out five with varying different quarterbacks. By the way,

407
00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:36,760
Speaker 2: the one thing, though Carolina Ducks are on the football

408
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:38,159
Speaker 2: and the one thing the Lions have started to do

409
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:40,160
Speaker 2: is tighten up in the last six weeks against that run.

410
00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,480
Speaker 1: So does that make this three a little bit more

411
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:43,159
Speaker 1: palatable for you?

412
00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:43,560
Speaker 5: Fits?

413
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:45,560
Speaker 4: That's what I was going to get to, Joe.

414
00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:48,600
Speaker 3: The run defense, Like the Lions have gone from being

415
00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 3: a sieve against the run to actually being pretty stout

416
00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:54,600
Speaker 3: in the last four or five weeks. And meanwhile, the

417
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,440
Speaker 3: Panthers running game was completely stuck in the mud. Yesterday

418
00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:01,160
Speaker 3: against the Steelers. They ran sixteen times for twenty one yards.

419
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,840
Speaker 3: Could not get anything going against the Steelers on the ground.

420
00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,240
Speaker 3: And if you take away the Panthers running game, that

421
00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 3: leaves Sam Darnold to try to win you the game.

422
00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:10,919
Speaker 4: Lots of luck with that.

423
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:13,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, And we know.

424
00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,520
Speaker 3: That the Lions have a lot of firepower on offense,

425
00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:19,400
Speaker 3: and maybe they don't display it quite as often when

426
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 3: they're outside. But as Friedman mentioned, probably not going to

427
00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:27,760
Speaker 3: get terribly inclement weather in Charlotte on Sunday, so you know,

428
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:31,160
Speaker 3: maybe it's a little I don't know, maybe a little

429
00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 3: chillier than it would be in the Dome. But I think, yeah,

430
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 3: I'm inclined to bet the Lions here.

431
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,000
Speaker 2: I don't know if there's a hot taker now, guys,

432
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,480
Speaker 2: but I feel like, you know, when you're looking at

433
00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:43,399
Speaker 2: the Lions, what are their huge strengths is their depth

434
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,840
Speaker 2: on offense. They're one of the deepest offensive teams. You know,

435
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,199
Speaker 2: three guys are capable running the football. You've got a

436
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 2: bunch of wide receivers who are capable. It just I

437
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 2: don't know I mean, so the tight end have a

438
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 2: big touchdown yesterday at the end of the game. It's

439
00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:58,600
Speaker 2: sort of it looks to me like this is the

440
00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 2: time of year where a lot of teams are banging

441
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:01,720
Speaker 2: up a lot of you know, but the depth is

442
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,880
Speaker 2: really what's been carrying them these last few weeks into

443
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 2: these wins because they have such a deep offensive roster.

444
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,760
Speaker 1: Credit to the GM for putting this team together. All right,

445
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:11,400
Speaker 1: let's got.

446
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,640
Speaker 5: Great offensive line too, realrific.

447
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,400
Speaker 2: Penny School was such a smart pick for them when

448
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:19,280
Speaker 2: they picked it like that was that was a very

449
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:20,440
Speaker 2: disciplined smart pick.

450
00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:22,880
Speaker 1: They did that a couple of years ago. Good on them.

451
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:24,680
Speaker 1: You're one hundred percent right. The old line is playing

452
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:28,440
Speaker 1: great football too. The Buffalo Bills won another closed one here.

453
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 1: We expected Buffalo to just dominate. Well, the lines telling

454
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 1: you they expect them to dominate in this game here

455
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:37,480
Speaker 1: against the Chicago Bears. They're on the road. This wasn't ten.

456
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,440
Speaker 1: It moved to nine, which I thought was just slightly curious.

457
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 2: I mean, Buffalo did win that football game against the Dolphins,

458
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,479
Speaker 2: who are a pretty good football team themselves. Forty one

459
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 2: is the number plus three forty on the money line.

460
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 2: For the Chicago Bears. Freeman, let's start with you with

461
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 2: this one with the Chicago Bears. Here, why do you

462
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 2: think this one moved from ten to nine. I don't

463
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:58,200
Speaker 2: understand that personally. I mean, I understand that the Bears

464
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,119
Speaker 2: kind of hung around with the Eagles. I don't think

465
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 2: when you watch that game, you came away like the

466
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 2: Bears can compete necessarily with some of the top teams

467
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:06,399
Speaker 2: in the NFL.

468
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,680
Speaker 5: Yeah. I think it's a few reasons. So one is that,

469
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 5: like the Bears, we did see them just get a

470
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,240
Speaker 5: cover against one of the best teams in the league.

471
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 5: The Bills have struggled to cover this year, like they've

472
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 5: had a great team, but they don't have like the

473
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 5: killer where they just put bad teams away. They kind

474
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 5: of let them hang around a little bit and get

475
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 5: the cover. And then part of it, I think a

476
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,399
Speaker 5: big part of it is the potential weather issues. And

477
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 5: so if the total is dropping, that just means fewer

478
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:35,919
Speaker 5: overall points are going to be scored, and so it

479
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,400
Speaker 5: doesn't make sense for the Bills to be favored by

480
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 5: like nine and a half ten. They should probably.

481
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 1: Say, precipitously to your point forty five and a half yesterday,

482
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 1: forty one today.

483
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,919
Speaker 5: Yeah, and so I still I mean, I still like

484
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:51,360
Speaker 5: the Bills. I still have this projected at ten. And

485
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,439
Speaker 5: I believe this line is eight at FanDuel. So I

486
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:56,959
Speaker 5: think that is a betable line.

487
00:21:58,040 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 1: You are correct on FANDL. It is it?

488
00:21:59,520 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 5: Adam?

489
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 2: Looking at that right now fits your thoughts on Bears

490
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 2: and Bills here. Do you see any value as this

491
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,360
Speaker 2: number starts to disintegrate a little bit?

492
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 3: I don't because I think the weather is what's affecting

493
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 3: this line, Joe. They are forecasting eleven degrees for temperature

494
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 3: at all twenty eight mile an hour wins, so it's

495
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:24,120
Speaker 3: going to be sub zero wind chill slash fields like temperatures.

496
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 3: And this is going to be a theme with a

497
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 3: lot of these games that we're about to talk about,

498
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:34,200
Speaker 3: Like I'm almost inclined to make a sweeping bet where

499
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 3: I treat this like a fund and bet something on

500
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 3: the under in every Midwestern and East Coast game. And

501
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 3: it's gonna be worse in the Midwest like we're supposed to.

502
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 3: And this arctic blast we're getting here in Chicago. I'm

503
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 3: in the Chicago area. It's going to come on the

504
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 3: heels of like eight to twenty five inches of snow

505
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 3: on Thursday and Friday, Like we are about to get

506
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 3: slammed with a Christmas storm here and you know, followed

507
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 3: by this Arctic plunge on the weekend. So it's gonna

508
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,639
Speaker 3: be really interesting weather, and I think it's going to

509
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 3: be really ground based, and like people were really concerned

510
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 3: about what the weather was going to be like in

511
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 3: Buffalo on Saturday night with the snow and everything. This

512
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 3: is the Buffalo weather game here, except it's in Chicago,

513
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 3: not in Buffalo.

514
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 1: Christmas Slam, Arctic Plunge. Also Mountain Dew flavors later could

515
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 1: be released in twenty twenty three. So all I'm hearing.

516
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 2: Though, by the way, is the over on Justin Field's

517
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 2: rushing props when you're talking.

518
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 1: That's all.

519
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 2: As you're saying these weathers, all I'm thinking to myself

520
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 2: of like, what's that number? Yeah, I'm gonna go over it.

521
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 2: Maybe for Josh Allen too in that same game. Let's

522
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 2: get to the next one here, New Orleans and Cleveland. Now,

523
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,880
Speaker 2: this one has the Cleveland Browns favored by three. At home,

524
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:46,959
Speaker 2: they came out with a victory. Not surprised at all

525
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 2: that they won that game against the Ravens. Side of

526
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,120
Speaker 2: the truth, thirty four and a half is the over

527
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 2: under another gross horrible low total, another midwestern ish kind

528
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 2: of game here plus one fifty on the money line.

529
00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 2: If you like the Saints fits, what do you see

530
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:01,919
Speaker 2: in this year? If any early value.

531
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 3: I'm seeing a little bit of value on the Browns

532
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,920
Speaker 3: because the weather in Cleveland is supposed to be even

533
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:12,119
Speaker 3: worse than the weather in Chicago. Snow showers possible in Cleveland,

534
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 3: and thirty five mile an hour wins and that sustained wins.

535
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 3: No one is passing in that. And Joe, I am

536
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 3: like the biggest fade the weather guy you will find

537
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:25,880
Speaker 3: in betting and fantasy. I am not fading thirty five

538
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 3: mile an hour sustained wins, like offenses will not passing.

539
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 4: Games will not.

540
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 3: Be able to function in thirty five mile an hour wins.

541
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 3: It just won't happen. So who's better built to win

542
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 3: a game where you are forced to run the ball

543
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:41,160
Speaker 3: like ninety percent of the time.

544
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 4: I think it's the.

545
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,639
Speaker 3: Browns with their running game with Nick Chubb and Kareem

546
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 3: Hunt against a Saints team that was just carved up

547
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:53,439
Speaker 3: on the ground by Tyler Algier and Cordero Patterson. The

548
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 3: Browns running game isn't great either, as I think Friedman

549
00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 3: was getting ready to interject, But I still think, yeah,

550
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 3: I think a running only game favors the Browns here.

551
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 1: All right, So if it's a run fest over here

552
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: in Cleveland, is that how you see things as well?

553
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 5: For even I, I don't disagree with what Fitz just

554
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 5: said in terms of the weather, but I'm actually like,

555
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,920
Speaker 5: I'm gonna take a stand on this game. It's probably stupid,

556
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 5: but I actually like the Saints here. I think I

557
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 5: think it's a Taysom Hill game, like Deshaun Watson, like Dome,

558
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 5: Like Dome Deshaun Watson. I don't think he's really settled

559
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 5: into the elements. I think the Saints have the perfect

560
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 5: type of quarterback who plays tight end. But I think

561
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:39,919
Speaker 5: it's gonna be a Taysom Hill, running down your throat

562
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 5: type of game, and so I think like he gets

563
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 5: a lot of run, and I honestly, I'm I'm taking

564
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,680
Speaker 5: the over like this hit thirty four last night. I'm

565
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 5: just like no, Like I just I put my foot down.

566
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 5: I was like, no, I know there's gonna be weather.

567
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 5: But weatherman are sometimes wrong. Sometimes weather gets overblown. And

568
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 5: thirty four is just too low of a number for

569
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 5: an NFL game, and it has bumped up a little

570
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 5: to thirty four and a half thirty five, and I'm

571
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 5: probably wrong. But so I'm at this point officially rooting

572
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 5: for the over, and I'm I'm on the Saints. I'm

573
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,160
Speaker 5: probably wrong on the Saints. Like fits your I think

574
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 5: you are on the sharper side on the spread because

575
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 5: I betted at three and a half and it's continued

576
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,479
Speaker 5: to move towards towards the Browns. Uh, so you know

577
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 5: it's anyway. I don't know. I don't know.

578
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 1: I made fascinating to take sure. I just want to

579
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 1: get a fascinating take about Deshaun Watson the elements, because

580
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: if the Cleveland Browns got us of a quarterback, you

581
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 1: can't play in the elements.

582
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 2: This is not a good investment. I'm just putting that

583
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 2: out like I've never even thought about that. I don't

584
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 2: know if it's the rust or it is the weather.

585
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,160
Speaker 2: What's going on with him? Obviously maybe a combination of both.

586
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 2: Go ahead, fits.

587
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, but Friedman might be right, Joe like Taysom Hill

588
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,640
Speaker 3: might be the perfect quarterback for this, and I kind

589
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 3: of didn't even think about the Taysom.

590
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 1: Hill Hill shares end you got him, let's go.

591
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 3: But this, this reminds me of the game when you know.

592
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 3: And I was telling Friedman about this while it was

593
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 3: happening maybe a month to go on a Saturday where

594
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 3: Iowa was playing Minnesota in Big Ten football, and the

595
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 3: total was like thirty one and a half or thirty two,

596
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 3: and I'm like, I gotta.

597
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 4: Bet the over on this.

598
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,199
Speaker 3: And it was a really windy day in the Midwest

599
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 3: and it was looking good for a while and then

600
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 3: completely spluttered out in the game and finished with a

601
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 3: total of under thirty. So it's one of those where

602
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 3: I just I don't think I can defy the weather

603
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 3: conditions and two offenses that maybe you know, the passing

604
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 3: games are super sharp to begin with.

605
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 5: I just I want to say one more time. We

606
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 5: are a week out and I know, like weather prediction

607
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,200
Speaker 5: has gotten a lot better in the last twenty years,

608
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,880
Speaker 5: but we're still about a week away from these games.

609
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 5: It feels like it wouldn't take much like oh, the

610
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 5: win came a day early and then all of a

611
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 5: sudden not much wind, you know, like I think a

612
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 5: lot can change if we're if we were two days away,

613
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 5: I would feel much more confident in having weather based

614
00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 5: total predictions.

615
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 4: This is a big system. I'm not fating the meteorologists here.

616
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:04,640
Speaker 1: See, we should have had Jim Cantore on the show.

617
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 1: We should have had a channel having a puffy coat

618
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,439
Speaker 1: talking to us about the football games.

619
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 2: Another team besides the Bills that seems to have a

620
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 2: problem kind of putting their foot on team, so to speak,

621
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:16,679
Speaker 2: is the Kansaity Chiefs.

622
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 1: They are ten point favors.

623
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 2: This one did move up from nine and a half

624
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 2: to ten against the Seattle Seahawks. They're going to be

625
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 2: traveling to Kansas City. Forty nine and a half is

626
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 2: a number plus three seventy on the money line on

627
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 2: the Seahawks. But fits Kansaity Chiefs keep on, you know,

628
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 2: letting teams hang around. They don't seem to have that

629
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 2: killer instinct either. And that being said, it feels like

630
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 2: the good time story of the Seahawks is starting to

631
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 2: crumble right in front of our faces. Do you feel

632
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 2: like that combination leads to maybe this nine, this ten,

633
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 2: depending on where you're betting it and a forty nine

634
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 2: and a half.

635
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 3: You couldn't have framed it any better, Joan. This combination

636
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 3: leads me to want to just stay away from this game.

637
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 3: Like I am swearing, I'm swearing off the Chiefs is

638
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 3: a big favorite. I just do not want to bet

639
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 3: them as a big favorite anymore.

640
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 2: Well, maybe we should learn something from it because every

641
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 2: time they're a big favorite. Maybe this is the perfect

642
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 2: opportunity to take Seattle here because it's grown to ten

643
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 2: nine and a half overnight.

644
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 3: But the Seahawks are oh and to five against the

645
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 3: spread in their last five games.

646
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 1: They are traveling, yeah, oh and five in.

647
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 3: Their last five December games, going to the Midwest where

648
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 3: they are not going to get the crazy wind in

649
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 3: Kansas City. Apparently they're saying eleven mile an hour wins,

650
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 3: but it's gonna be eleven degrees. It's gonna be chiley

651
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 3: in Kansas City. So maybe not great Seahawks weather.

652
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 2: Here, all right, Well, the Seahawks do like to run

653
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 2: the football, that's for sure, so maybe that will carry

654
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 2: itself over. Not a great game obviously against San Francisco

655
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 2: last week, But for what are your thoughts on this one?

656
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 2: Is the line too big.

657
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 5: Yes, but I still bet it, you know, like I

658
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 5: feel like right, No, I've been early like I was

659
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 5: early on. Oh, the Chiefs aren't the type of team

660
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 5: that's covering big spreads. But the thing is like two things. One,

661
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 5: my numbers still haven't adjusted enough for that, so I

662
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 5: always see value on them. And then two, always in

663
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 5: the look ahead market, I see this line and I

664
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 5: think that's gonna move, And the thing is, I'm right,

665
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 5: I'm getting the closing line value. And then I'm still

666
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 5: losing the bets, which is it's just like the most

667
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 5: painful thing. So like I just need to stop betting

668
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 5: on the Chiefs. But this week I betted at nine

669
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 5: and a half. I probably wouldn't take it at ten,

670
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 5: but my projection is twelve, so I don't know, I'm

671
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 5: probably wrong. Like I know, historically the Chiefs haven't done

672
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 5: what they needed to do in this spot. But this

673
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 5: week I'm still on the Chiefs.

674
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 1: Okay, still on the Chiefs.

675
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 2: The next one here, the Cincinnati Bengals are now ten

676
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 2: and four, and I gotta tell you, guys, I almost

677
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 2: bet this last week. I was kind of waiting to

678
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 2: see one more game here. How they handle themself against Tampa.

679
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 2: But if you ask me right now, I feel like

680
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Bengals are the most dangerous team in the AFC.

681
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 1: I can't put my finger on why.

682
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 2: Necessarily, it's just the feeling of, you know, like you

683
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 2: see a team that's able to come out with the

684
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 2: victories when they need them. Joe Burrow seems to be

685
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 2: that big game quarterback, and Cincinnati Bengals handle their business

686
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 2: like the Chiefs or the Bills sometimes like they actually

687
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 2: do put teams away defensively, starting to play better despite

688
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 2: the losses on the corner. Let's talk about this game

689
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 2: here because clearly thing Patriots are seven and six, but

690
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 2: this is not a good seven.

691
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: I mean this is I was seven and seven now,

692
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 1: but this is not, you know, a good football team.

693
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 1: Let's be honest.

694
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 2: The defense has its moments, the offense, you know, they

695
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 2: are just completely one dimensional. At this point three and

696
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 2: a half point underdogs, the Patriots are. I don't think

697
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 2: that's a big enough number. I'm gonna be honest with you.

698
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 2: Forty is the over under plus one fifty five on

699
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 2: the money line.

700
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 1: If you like the Pats. I don't Friedman, I think

701
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 1: this should be a bigger number.

702
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: I think that the Cincinnati Bengals are going to go

703
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 2: into New England and give them a good old fashioned whoopin.

704
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 1: What do you think about this game?

705
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, I instinctively agree with you. This number was three

706
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 5: in the look ahead market and I saw it then

707
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 5: I was like, you know what, I wish, I wish

708
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 5: I would have bet it, But it's three and a

709
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 5: half now it's moved to four at bet MGM. I

710
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 5: have this projected at three, but I don't feel good

711
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 5: at all about that projection. And part of it is

712
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 5: all of the injuries that the Bengals are dealing with

713
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 5: right now, like that is still captured within my projection.

714
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 5: Edge Trey Hendrickson is, you know, out with a wrist injury.

715
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 5: I doubt he plays this week. And then we also

716
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 5: saw in last week's game edge Sam Hubbard leaf, so

717
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 5: they are pretty pretty wounded on the defensive line. Obviously,

718
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 5: Chiuna Bay Woozy is out, and then Mike Kilton was

719
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 5: out last week, so that without two of their starters

720
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 5: at cornerback and without two of their backups at cornerback

721
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 5: because Jalen Davis was out and then Cam Taylor Britton

722
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 5: went out in the middle of the game, so like

723
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 5: and then Hayden Hurst, but you know whatever, Like those

724
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 5: defensive injuries are not insignificant, and so I doubt that

725
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 5: the Patriots actually can exploit those injuries, but they are

726
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 5: still there and that is what is holding down the

727
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 5: projection for me on the Bengals.

728
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 2: And I understand and look, the Uzia injury certainly has

729
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 2: been one that's left a big gaping hole where Eli

730
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 2: Apple has to be the number one corner again, and

731
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 2: that's never a good situation. But that's a team that

732
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 2: still went to the super Bowl with that circumstance last

733
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 2: year and really had a chance to win at the end.

734
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 1: Fits like all those things that Friedman center are correct.

735
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 2: I just don't think that the Patriots the in the day,

736
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:09,719
Speaker 2: like he put it, can take advantage of them right now.

737
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 2: And I know they're coming off a very stinging loss.

738
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 2: Special teams played terrible. This is a sloppier New England

739
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 2: team that we've seen before. They make mistakes, usually mistake

740
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 2: free football as a Patriot way, that's not been the

741
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 2: case the last couple of years.

742
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with that, Joe, and like Friedman, I

743
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 3: have this projected as minus three for the Bengals, and

744
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:32,720
Speaker 3: there's no way I am betting or I'm not betting

745
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 3: the home underdog here. And even though like the Hilton

746
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 3: and Hendrickson injuries like those are so big, with the

747
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 3: Bengals already missing a Woozy and now they've got their

748
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 3: two top corners out and the guy who can raise

749
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 3: the most havoc with the pass rush to try to

750
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 3: make things easier on the cornerbacks who are left, and

751
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 3: those guys are out of commission, so not insignificant, and

752
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 3: that's pretty much why my projection is where it is.

753
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 3: But I mean, the Bengals have been so good against

754
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 3: the number eleven and three on the season against the spread,

755
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 3: and they've won six straight, covered six straight, have not

756
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,320
Speaker 3: lost or failed to cover since Halloween.

757
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 4: And you know, Joe, you kind of said it here like.

758
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, like even though they came out so flat against

759
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 3: the Buccaneers, uh, just completely dysfunctional on offense at the

760
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 3: start of that game, all of a sudden, they just

761
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 3: got it together, just flattened the Buccaneers. They did, and

762
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 3: you know, like not a bad defense, and they just

763
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:36,120
Speaker 3: like got their act together and just completely overwhelmed the Bocks.

764
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 2: The Patriots have not played a lot of good teams

765
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 2: though too. I mean if you're looking back at the

766
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 2: schedule too.

767
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,360
Speaker 1: I mean they've played the Steelers, you know, they've played

768
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 1: no offense.

769
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 2: The Packers not a great football team this year. They

770
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 2: caught the Lions when the Lions were really down. They

771
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 2: played the Browns without you know, they's so Jacoby Brissett Browns,

772
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 2: not that Deshaun Watson Browns have been great. They've probably

773
00:34:56,520 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 2: been worse somewise offensively. But then they've struggled even against

774
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 2: teams like the Bears. They played close games against the Jets.

775
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 2: I mean, this is I think we have a false

776
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 2: sense of security on some of that Patriots covering at

777
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 2: home confidence kind of thing that normally I'd be all

778
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 2: over with you, but I just I don't think this

779
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 2: team is any good. I just don't rein it is.

780
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 4: Yeah.

781
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,720
Speaker 3: I was just going to say they were going into yesterday,

782
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 3: they were five and two against teams with the losing

783
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,880
Speaker 3: records and you know, drop a game they maybe should

784
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 3: not have dropped against the.

785
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 4: Poppy Raiders.

786
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's a problem.

787
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 5: Go ahead for Yeah, one final thing on on the Bengals,

788
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 5: like Joe Burrow has been like a road warrior. I

789
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,399
Speaker 5: think he's something like fourteen and seven or maybe even

790
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 5: more than that against the spread on the road for

791
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,799
Speaker 5: his career. Like on the road, he just absolutely balls out.

792
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 5: I don't know what it is, maybe just some random split,

793
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 5: but the normal road disadvantage that some teams have the

794
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 5: Bengals haven't had with Burrow.

795
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 1: The Bengals, by the way, to win the AFC went

796
00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 1: from plus six fifty to plus five one hundred overnight.

797
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 1: Throwing that out there, two boys and girls, just in

798
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 1: case you're interested in where things are moving, because last

799
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 1: year this kind of happened too, and I put a

800
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 1: lot of money on the Bengals and I was very

801
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 1: happy about that.

802
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 2: Let's get to the next game here, the Tennessee Titans, though,

803
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 2: boy oh boy, I think they're just not going well

804
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:17,840
Speaker 2: for the Titans last few weeks. This was eight and

805
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:20,840
Speaker 2: a half, now it is seven. They are seven point

806
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 2: favorites at home against the Houston Texans. Thirty nine and a

807
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 2: half is the number plus two sixty on the money line.

808
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 2: I know it sounds crazy here, Pat, but I kind

809
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 2: of want to be on the Texan side of this game.

810
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 4: Me too, Joe.

811
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 3: The Titans are officially broken four straight losses fifteen and

812
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,800
Speaker 3: a half points a game over that stretch. And Houston

813
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 3: meanwhile almost beat the Cowboys in Week fourteen and almost

814
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,239
Speaker 3: beat the Chiefs in Week fifteen. Like, I can't take

815
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 3: the Titans here.

816
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: Oh and by the way, another defensively, they.

817
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 3: Have another weather game. By the way, twenty three degrees

818
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:55,320
Speaker 3: seventeen mile an hour wins in Nashville.

819
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 1: Well, it's not like tennis.

820
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,359
Speaker 2: You can throw the football anyway, Friedman, your thoughts here

821
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 2: in this game with me and fits? Are you just

822
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 2: feeling crazy here? You want to go in with us

823
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:05,439
Speaker 2: on the Houston Texans, the one win team.

824
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:08,399
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm not betting the Texans, but I really

825
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 5: don't want to bet against them either. I have this

826
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 5: projected at seven. Sorry, I haven't projected at eight. So

827
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 5: in theory, I'm showing value on the Titans at seven.

828
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 5: But it's not as if I'm betting it. I'm I'm

829
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 5: probably not going to bet it. As Fitz said, their

830
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 5: defense is totally broken. The number of injuries that they

831
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 5: have on that side of the ball is just it's comical,

832
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,320
Speaker 5: Like it's it's like something that you would see in

833
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 5: a Fairly Brothers movie, Like they are just so injured

834
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 5: and they're like there aren't reinforcements coming. Some of these

835
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 5: guys are not returning. And you know, Treylon Burk's their

836
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,280
Speaker 5: their main receiver on offense, like he's dealing with an injury.

837
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 5: The only like positive situation is that, uh chig a

838
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 5: Conquo is like looking like an actual stud Titan. Like

839
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 5: it's probably not he feels like albert Oh, like in

840
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 5: a couple of years, we're just gonna be like, I

841
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 5: can't believe I was so invested in a Conquo, like

842
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 5: my my, Like I feel that.

843
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 1: He's done more already in his career than albert O did.

844
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:06,959
Speaker 2: I don't know, Like and they give him, ay, givem

845
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:08,360
Speaker 2: a carry yesterday, dude, you see that?

846
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:09,240
Speaker 1: And that was fun?

847
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 5: I know. I love that he is john new Smith

848
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 5: or like Delaney Walker. He's like in that mold of

849
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 5: Titans tight end.

850
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, like Johnny Smith. That was fun. That was a

851
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 1: good time. I remember that. All right, let's go to

852
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty nine ers ten and excuse me,

853
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 1: eleven and four now, uh no, wait, I remember right

854
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 1: the first time we're ten and four here. The Washington

855
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 1: Commanders is gonna come into San Francisco.

856
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 2: It's be fifteen, folks, sixteen now, I mean, come on,

857
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 2: we're just hanging out by a threat. The San Francisco

858
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 2: forty nine ers seven point home favorites here against the

859
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 2: Washington Commanders. Forty and a half is the number for

860
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 2: this one plus two sixty on the money line. If

861
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 2: you like Washington Freeman, I gotta tell you this one's

862
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:49,759
Speaker 2: a little surprising here. I know it started out at

863
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,320
Speaker 2: six and a half and moved to seven, But despite

864
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 2: all that, I feel like San Francisco should be more

865
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,919
Speaker 2: of a favorite in this game, despite Rock Purdy. I'm

866
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 2: just gonna put that, like, despite that, it feels like

867
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 2: they're just a much better football team.

868
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:03,880
Speaker 1: What's Vegas seeing that? I'm not?

869
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, this was six and a half in

870
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 5: the look ahead. I think it was six and a

871
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 5: half when it opened early, but it has moved to

872
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 5: seven seven and a half even at FANDUL, I would

873
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:16,360
Speaker 5: expect this line to continue to move. I haven't projected

874
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:19,800
Speaker 5: at seven and a half. I hate betting Kyle Shanahan

875
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:22,879
Speaker 5: as a home favorite. That's just like something I intuitively

876
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 5: hate doing He's been horrible in that situation. But I

877
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 5: still bet them at six and a half because I

878
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:30,440
Speaker 5: think they should be on the other side of seven.

879
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 5: And yeah, you're right. I mean I think the market,

880
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 5: the market has liked the Commanders more than maybe maybe

881
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 5: more than he should warranted. Yeah, And so I think

882
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 5: that is popping into it. And some of it is

883
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 5: a little bit of like Rock Party hesitation, and I've

884
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:51,840
Speaker 5: been hesitant about Party. But I did bump based on

885
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 5: what they did last week. I did bump the forty

886
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:57,359
Speaker 5: nine Ers up pretty significantly in the power ratings because, yeah,

887
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 5: like I have a lot of respect for what Garoppolo

888
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:02,160
Speaker 5: did in that offense over the past half decade, but

889
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 5: it looks like they're able to replicate some of that

890
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 5: with Rockferdy and with the weapons that they have around

891
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 5: and the defense especially.

892
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 2: That's enough, Yeah, right, I mean for a team that's

893
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:14,399
Speaker 2: limited what they could do offensively, when you take away

894
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 2: the run game like that and you put everything on

895
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 2: Taylor Heineke, I think it just mistakes Central potentially.

896
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 5: That's the probably look. Just to put a little perspective

897
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 5: on it, this is a Commanders team that hasn't been

898
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 5: able to beat the Giants over the last three weeks, right,

899
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 5: and now they're going on the road across country and

900
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:33,919
Speaker 5: beating the forty nine ers.

901
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:37,240
Speaker 2: Like, no, that's what I'm talking about, And that's fits

902
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 2: a conversation I want to have, which is, you know,

903
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 2: you can't put away the Giants twice, and now you're

904
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 2: gonna go to San Francisco and you're gonna keep this close.

905
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 1: Look.

906
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 2: I understand it's Rock Perdy. I understand it's the third

907
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:48,720
Speaker 2: string Quarterbrec.

908
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:50,240
Speaker 1: I get all of that. But at the same time,

909
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,799
Speaker 1: I mean there's a real tough sell to see them

910
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 1: go across the country and beat the forty nine ers

911
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 1: by you know, or cover the seven early for me.

912
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 3: Tug a war for me here, Joe, You've got that factor.

913
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 3: Like I wonder what sort of headspace the Commanders are

914
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 3: in having gone all one and one against the Giants team. Uh,

915
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 3: you know when I thought and I'm sure they thought

916
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 3: they were the better team.

917
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 4: So that's got to.

918
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 3: Be staggering, and now their playoff hopes have been delta

919
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 3: a severe blow with that bad two game stretch against

920
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 3: the Giants. On the other hand, I do feel like

921
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 3: the hesitation to endorse brock Purty is starting to dissipate

922
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 3: a little bit, and should it really be dissipating when

923
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 3: he is about to face Jonathan Allen Montese sweat chase,

924
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:41,280
Speaker 3: Like the Washington defense is uh a serious unit?

925
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 4: Man?

926
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:45,239
Speaker 3: I mean, like, mister irrelevant, better pack a lunch for

927
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,240
Speaker 3: this one because this is not going to be easy

928
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 3: to move the ball against this team. So I just

929
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 3: I'm not inclined to bet either side. I could see

930
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 3: it being maybe.

931
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 1: Have some moments last night he did basically at.

932
00:41:57,520 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 3: The end of the game when they were salting in

933
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:01,359
Speaker 3: a way that that run defense. I don't know if

934
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 3: they were just gassed or what. But yeah, still, man,

935
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:08,080
Speaker 3: this is a really good defense. So I don't know,

936
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:10,800
Speaker 3: maybe a little bit of value on the under of

937
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 3: whether is it really going to be a factor in

938
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:16,800
Speaker 3: this one one of the few games. Yeah, I'm probably

939
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:18,879
Speaker 3: just not touching this game, all right.

940
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 2: I want to touch this game. It's Philadelphia Eagles and

941
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:25,000
Speaker 2: the Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas Cowboys are one point favorites

942
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 2: at home. This is absurd. Fifty one and a half

943
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:28,800
Speaker 2: is the number.

944
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, sorry, like minus one oh five for the

945
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 1: Eagles on the money line.

946
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 2: The Eagles should be three and a half point favorites

947
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 2: at least in this game. In my opinion, I think this.

948
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 1: Is just flat out wrong. Sorry.

949
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 2: I've watched this Dallas Cowboy team the last couple of weeks.

950
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 2: I've watched the mistakes from Dak Prescott. I think last

951
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 2: week the Eagles was a little bit of looking ahead

952
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 2: to the Cowboys in this game against the Chicago Bears.

953
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 1: That's why it was as close as it was. I

954
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 1: think the Eagles are going to go and blow the

955
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 1: doors off the Cowboys. That's what I'm saying.

956
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:55,720
Speaker 5: Fits.

957
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna let that ste for a little bit with

958
00:42:57,600 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 2: Matthew Friedman that you take this one first.

959
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 4: Yeah. I feel the same way, Joe.

960
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 3: I mean, the Cowboys check engine light is on right now. Yeah,

961
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 3: they almost lost as seventeen point home favorites against the Texans,

962
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 3: and they just got five hundred plus yards rolled up

963
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 3: on them by the Jaguars. And they've got injury problems

964
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 3: at cornerback. You know, I want to see what who's

965
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 3: possibly coming back and who's still going to be out.

966
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 3: But if they could not even come close to stopping

967
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 3: the Jaguars offense, how are they going to stop the

968
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 3: Eagles offense.

969
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:36,760
Speaker 1: I got a Freeman go ahead. The floor is yours.

970
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 5: I'm not I'm not disagreeing really with anything that was said.

971
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 5: I mean, I have a bet on the Eagles at

972
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:45,759
Speaker 5: plus one and a half. But I don't think the

973
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 5: Eagles should be favored in this game. But I think

974
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 5: they should be bet. There's there's value on the current

975
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 5: number in the market. Like I have this projected as

976
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:58,839
Speaker 5: Cowboys favored by half a point. I think FITS is

977
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 5: roughly in that same neighborhood. I think FITS maybe has

978
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 5: it as a pick them. So I do think that

979
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:06,839
Speaker 5: there's value on the Eagles in the spot. I don't

980
00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 5: think we need to go the distance of them being favored.

981
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 5: But to your point, Joe, it wouldn't surprise me if

982
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 5: this market flipped. I think the market should flip just

983
00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 5: based on dynamics and man, I mean the Eagles offensively,

984
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 5: they can get it done throwing and running. The Cowboys

985
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 5: are extremely vulnerable right now in the secondary, missing two starters,

986
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 5: and Trevon Diggs, you know, for for his kind of

987
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:34,360
Speaker 5: like quote unquote ball hawking capability. He is a liability

988
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:37,320
Speaker 5: in coverage because he's always trying to make the big plays,

989
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:40,719
Speaker 5: and the Cowboys are unsettled at safety as well, so

990
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 5: they could really be exploited in this game if the

991
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 5: Eagles just decide and the Eagles one of those few

992
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 5: teams that game plans based on what the defense gives them.

993
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:53,760
Speaker 5: You know, like if the Eagles are in a matchup

994
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 5: where they can run the ball, they just run the

995
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:57,959
Speaker 5: ball down the other team's throat. Here they are going

996
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 5: to see, oh, this team is bad on defense in

997
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:03,200
Speaker 5: the secondary. That's where we're going to exploit them. And

998
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 5: they can do that with aj Brown and with DeVante

999
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:09,080
Speaker 5: Smith and Dallas Goddard. You bet he's coming back for

1000
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 5: this game. So like that is one thing I haven't

1001
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:14,720
Speaker 5: taken into account, and the projections of Dallas Goddard returning.

1002
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 5: So yeah, I think the Eagles there is massive upside

1003
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:22,359
Speaker 5: potential for them to roll the Cowboys because they will

1004
00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 5: attack the Cowboys where they're most vulnerable.

1005
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:28,360
Speaker 2: I'm trying to remember last year. I remember the Cowboys

1006
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 2: did put a hurting on them right January eighth game.

1007
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 2: I'm looking at fifty one twenty six. I think they're

1008
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: going to remember that. Man, They're going to remember that.

1009
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:39,720
Speaker 2: I think this is a different Eagles team. Las Vegas

1010
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 2: Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers. You guys can have this one.

1011
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 2: I want nothing to do with this one. You guys

1012
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 2: have at it. The Steelers the two point favorites that

1013
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 2: move from one to two. I don't know why you

1014
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 2: can tell me forty and a half is the number

1015
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:55,440
Speaker 2: here plus one ten on the money line. You can

1016
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 2: light your money on fire here, Freeman, for all I can.

1017
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:00,719
Speaker 5: I have nothing to say really about this game projected

1018
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 5: at Pittsburgh favored by minus favorite yea one and a

1019
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:08,759
Speaker 5: half the total whatever. I have nothing to say. I'm

1020
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 5: fine if we go to the next game unless fits

1021
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:11,839
Speaker 5: has something he wants to say.

1022
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 3: I'm juggernauts if I bet any more money against the Raiders,

1023
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:20,319
Speaker 3: like I'm not gonna be able to afford to send my.

1024
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 4: Kids to college.

1025
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:24,840
Speaker 3: Like I really want to bet the Steelers here, but

1026
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 3: it's like every time I think the Raiders are done,

1027
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 3: Like after that horrible loss to the Colts, after that

1028
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:33,440
Speaker 3: horrible loss to Baker Mayfield, with the fourth quarter comeback,

1029
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 3: I'm like, Okay, they're gonna call it quits. And I

1030
00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:38,760
Speaker 3: bet against them and they you know, cover or flat

1031
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 3: out win. So I just I can't do it anymore, Joe.

1032
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 3: They get hit with the tombstone pile driver and then

1033
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 3: kick out, like it's like Adam Sandler Netflix movies, like

1034
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 3: they keep coming, you keep hoping one of them is

1035
00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:51,919
Speaker 3: going to work out, and then just they're just the same.

1036
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:55,879
Speaker 5: I feel the same way, except the exact opposite is fits.

1037
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:58,600
Speaker 5: I feel like I can't bet on the Raiders anymore,

1038
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:02,840
Speaker 5: or because I I'm just you know, like I'm traumatized

1039
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 5: by the losses that they've had. We're even with them

1040
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 5: getting a fairly lucky cover in this past week. I'm

1041
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 5: just like, really lucky, I got lucky. I can't, I

1042
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 5: can't do it again.

1043
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:18,840
Speaker 3: Friedman is betting on the Raiders, like for the Jeff

1044
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:21,680
Speaker 3: Saturday game and the Baker Mayfield game, and I'm betting

1045
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:24,800
Speaker 3: against the Raiders for the games after that. So basically

1046
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 3: Friedman and I are just like, you know, opening our

1047
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:31,319
Speaker 3: wallets and giving everything away on the Raiders.

1048
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:31,120
Speaker 1: A full slate.

1049
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 2: We're gonna hit overdrive here. It's kind of lightning round

1050
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 2: these here. Green Bay and the Miami Dolphins here four

1051
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:37,720
Speaker 2: and a half point favorites.

1052
00:47:37,760 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 1: Are the Dolphins that feels about right.

1053
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:40,759
Speaker 2: Forty six and a half is the number plus one

1054
00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:43,000
Speaker 2: seventy five with the money line, Pat, what's your early

1055
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 2: value of any on this game?

1056
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 3: Over last four Packers games have produced fifty nine, forty four,

1057
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 3: seventy three, and forty seven points.

1058
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 4: And yeah, we're not going to.

1059
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 1: Get bad weather in Miami feels about right to me.

1060
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:56,320
Speaker 1: What do you think, Freedman?

1061
00:47:57,400 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 5: We are on the Dolphins in this game. You know,

1062
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 5: Aaron Rodgers is his best at home, and the Dolphins

1063
00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:09,200
Speaker 5: have a little more rest in this game. Yeah, very

1064
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:11,359
Speaker 5: much like the Dolphins here. I think I think they

1065
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:14,280
Speaker 5: are the seventh best team. I think there's a pretty

1066
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:16,960
Speaker 5: clear you know, like however it is that people would

1067
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 5: do their power ratings. You've got the Chiefs, the Bills,

1068
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 5: You've got the Eagles, and then in some combination, I

1069
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 5: think you have Bengals, Cowboys, forty nine Ers. I think

1070
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:30,280
Speaker 5: the number seven team here is the is the Dolphins.

1071
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 1: I think I agree with that.

1072
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:35,400
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to Los Angeles Rams hosting the

1073
00:48:35,440 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 2: Denver Broncos right now. In this game, again we'll wait

1074
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:40,920
Speaker 2: for to nice results, but somehow the Los Angeles Rams

1075
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:43,920
Speaker 2: are one point favorites at home against the Denver Broncos

1076
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:45,400
Speaker 2: thirty five and a half as a number. Who knows

1077
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 2: who'll play quarterback? Friedman, what's your take on this game

1078
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 2: where you just have to wait for more information before

1079
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 2: we could even get close to it.

1080
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 5: I haven't touched it yet, either the side or the total.

1081
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:57,960
Speaker 5: I'm assuming that Russell Wilson comes back, but that's not

1082
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:02,040
Speaker 5: like one hundred percent given as a probability in my projections.

1083
00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 5: But I assume he comes back. I assume the Rams

1084
00:49:05,560 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 5: are still going to be very injured on especially on defense.

1085
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:12,800
Speaker 5: I have this projected as Denver minus one and a half,

1086
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,239
Speaker 5: but I mean, I'm not touching it either way.

1087
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:17,880
Speaker 2: Fits It feels like, you know, this line certainly can

1088
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:19,759
Speaker 2: move depending on what happens to the Rams get their

1089
00:49:19,800 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 2: doors blown off.

1090
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:23,080
Speaker 1: This is going to become even money very quickly.

1091
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I don't want to, like, I don't see

1092
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 3: any early value anything.

1093
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:30,520
Speaker 4: I'm trying to get capitalized on based on a change.

1094
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:33,520
Speaker 3: And Merry Christmas from the NFL, by the way, giving

1095
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 3: us Broncos Rams, well, I think.

1096
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 2: It's a great gift because like the Miami game in

1097
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 2: the morning, well that's fun. It's Christmas morning at one

1098
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 2: o'clock Eastern. You know that's fun, But four thirty is

1099
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:44,919
Speaker 2: like prime Christmas dinner time and nobody has to watch

1100
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:45,239
Speaker 2: the Rams.

1101
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:48,799
Speaker 3: And good point, by the way, how insane is it

1102
00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:50,880
Speaker 3: that this might not be the lowest total on the

1103
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 3: board Broncos Rams, No, because are the.

1104
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:56,359
Speaker 1: Wet Yeah, that's a good point.

1105
00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:59,799
Speaker 2: Arizona Cardinals four point favorites at home. I'm sorry, four

1106
00:49:59,800 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 2: point underdogs at home. Pardon me, pardon me? Against the

1107
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

1108
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:04,600
Speaker 1: Oh, the Bucks.

1109
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 2: Forty and a half is the number Christmas Day? Tom

1110
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:08,840
Speaker 2: Brady plus one fifty five. All Tom Brady wants for

1111
00:50:08,920 --> 00:50:10,920
Speaker 2: Christmas is a w He just can't seem to get

1112
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 2: it fits. What do you make of this game?

1113
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 4: Here?

1114
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:14,840
Speaker 2: The four point favorites on the road against a Cardinal

1115
00:50:14,840 --> 00:50:17,680
Speaker 2: team that they should absolutely handle. But it's one thing

1116
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 2: about the Bucks we've learned is they don't really handle much. Yeah.

1117
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 3: I do not want to invest money in either of

1118
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:26,280
Speaker 3: these teams whatsoever. Can't bet on the Buccaneers at this point.

1119
00:50:26,360 --> 00:50:30,600
Speaker 3: And you know, even though this is the Kingsberry narrative says,

1120
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 3: bet that the Cardinals as home dogs.

1121
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 4: Man with their quarterback issues, well.

1122
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:38,760
Speaker 2: Trace McSorley could be the quarterback for this game possibly,

1123
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:41,319
Speaker 2: So if we get McSorley here, maybe this is the

1124
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 2: four we should jump on early for even what do

1125
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:43,359
Speaker 2: you think?

1126
00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:47,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, I've already bet it and December did this numbers three.

1127
00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:49,880
Speaker 5: It's actually still three and a half at bet MGM

1128
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:53,160
Speaker 5: shout out or sponsor, yea, and so get some value there.

1129
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:56,000
Speaker 5: You know, it's four at some spots in the market.

1130
00:50:56,040 --> 00:50:58,000
Speaker 5: Actually it's moved to four and a half at FanDuel.

1131
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:01,200
Speaker 5: I think bet it now at them, I have this

1132
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 5: projected at four point seventy five. I am operating largely

1133
00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:09,400
Speaker 5: under the assumption that we do not see Colt McCoy

1134
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:11,680
Speaker 5: in this game. I do think it is Trace mixed early.

1135
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:14,719
Speaker 5: But you know, even if it's Colt McCoy, I don't

1136
00:51:14,719 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 5: know how much of a difference that actually makes. And

1137
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 5: you know, there's a chance some of the players that

1138
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 5: have been injured for the Buccaneers, we see them come

1139
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 5: back in this game. Quarterback Jamel Dean, multiple edge rushers

1140
00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 5: were injured last week and out Vitavea Tristan Works was

1141
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 5: pretty close to returning but didn't play. I think we

1142
00:51:32,719 --> 00:51:36,000
Speaker 5: see him on Christmas. So yeah, I am. I'm very

1143
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 5: much on the Buccaneers in this spot. Like I don't

1144
00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:41,560
Speaker 5: like it, but I think there is value there.

1145
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:46,160
Speaker 1: The Indiana and Aapolis Colts are home underdogs three points

1146
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 1: to the Los Angeles Chargers. They're going to be road

1147
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 1: favorites in this one. Forty seven and a half is

1148
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:54,560
Speaker 1: the number plus one forty five. The Chargers stage strong

1149
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:56,359
Speaker 1: and pulled out a tough game. Look, you know they

1150
00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:59,560
Speaker 1: should they in theory have thrown a lot more on

1151
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:02,120
Speaker 1: the Titans and really put up bigger numbers probably, but

1152
00:52:02,160 --> 00:52:04,799
Speaker 1: the Titans always they played tough football. They're a tough

1153
00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:06,240
Speaker 1: football team, even with the injuries.

1154
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:08,440
Speaker 2: That being said, the Colts, I don't know how you're

1155
00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 2: rebound after this, Friedman, I don't know what you think

1156
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:11,279
Speaker 2: of this game here.

1157
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:11,879
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts?

1158
00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:13,520
Speaker 2: The Colts are also going to have some extra days

1159
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 2: to think about this, which I think is even more

1160
00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:16,480
Speaker 2: upsetting for them.

1161
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:19,160
Speaker 1: Your take on Colts and Chargers.

1162
00:52:19,160 --> 00:52:21,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, I actually have this projected at two and a half,

1163
00:52:22,160 --> 00:52:25,760
Speaker 5: which means I'm, in theory showing some value on the Colts.

1164
00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:27,760
Speaker 5: But I think a lot of that is home field

1165
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 5: advantage and the fact that they do have extra time

1166
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:32,759
Speaker 5: to rest, but I don't really want to be on

1167
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 5: this game.

1168
00:52:33,960 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 1: Extra time to rest. But also think about being on

1169
00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:40,760
Speaker 1: the wrong side yet again of the poor Matt Ryan,

1170
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 1: Poor poor Matt Ryan. You just shout out, Matt Ryan.

1171
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:45,360
Speaker 5: It's not his fault, it's not his fault.

1172
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 2: I just want to hug him like in Goodwill Hunting

1173
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:49,280
Speaker 2: and just over and over again say it's not your fault.

1174
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:51,439
Speaker 1: But fits What do you make of this one here?

1175
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 2: Because it's another one where the Chargers are certainly the

1176
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:57,759
Speaker 2: better talent team, but the Colts have hung on some

1177
00:52:57,840 --> 00:52:58,720
Speaker 2: of these games lately.

1178
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:01,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, how do they Colts regroup from blowing a thirty

1179
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 3: three nothing halftime lead.

1180
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:04,000
Speaker 4: That's what I can't get over.

1181
00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:05,960
Speaker 3: And they have no Jonathan Taylor and one of the

1182
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 3: big reasons they couldn't well, we don't know that. Actually

1183
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:10,799
Speaker 3: I shouldn't say that, because maybe Jonathan Taylor has a

1184
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:11,960
Speaker 3: low ankle sprain and a.

1185
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 1: Come he is unlikely out for the UH he was

1186
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:19,359
Speaker 1: diagnosed with a high ankle sprain on just see that

1187
00:53:19,840 --> 00:53:21,839
Speaker 1: of course on our you know.

1188
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:24,439
Speaker 2: On our fantasy playbook, my playbook app so of course

1189
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 2: getting all the news there very nice.

1190
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, so with no Jonathan Taylor, one of the reasons

1191
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 3: they couldn't hold that thirty three nothing lead was that

1192
00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:35,759
Speaker 3: they couldn't really run the ball effectively with that big lead. So, boy,

1193
00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:38,799
Speaker 3: even though the Chargers are so up and down, man,

1194
00:53:38,840 --> 00:53:41,439
Speaker 3: I just do not like playing Chargers games this year.

1195
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:43,360
Speaker 4: If anything, I would be.

1196
00:53:43,360 --> 00:53:45,759
Speaker 3: Inclined to bet on the Chargers going in and uh,

1197
00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 3: you know, beating a team that's got to be down

1198
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 3: trodden at this point.

1199
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:51,799
Speaker 2: All right, here we go our favorite bets of the

1200
00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 2: week of the early look ahead. For me, you know

1201
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:55,800
Speaker 2: what it is is the Jaguars and it's the Eagles.

1202
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:58,879
Speaker 2: Let's go, uh, Friedman, what are your favorites going into

1203
00:53:59,000 --> 00:53:59,440
Speaker 2: this week?

1204
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:03,359
Speaker 5: All right? I still like the Saints. That numbers has

1205
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:06,239
Speaker 5: moved to plus three. I still like the Saints at

1206
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:06,880
Speaker 5: plus three.

1207
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:10,319
Speaker 2: I'm not going to say saying it eventually comes true.

1208
00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:12,200
Speaker 2: I just like the Saints. I just like the Saints.

1209
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:14,919
Speaker 5: I'm not going to say the over of thirty four

1210
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:16,879
Speaker 5: or thirty four and a half in that game. I'm

1211
00:54:16,880 --> 00:54:19,960
Speaker 5: not gonna do it, but that is mighty tempteenth. I

1212
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:22,280
Speaker 5: do like the Eagles at plus one and a half.

1213
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 5: I think they do have an edge over the Cowboys,

1214
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 5: and yeah, Tampa Bay minus three and a half at

1215
00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:31,840
Speaker 5: bet MGM some value relative to the rest of the market.

1216
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:35,439
Speaker 5: They're going against Arizona. I think there's value, all right.

1217
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:38,160
Speaker 1: Fits, what's your favorite early looks in Week sixteen?

1218
00:54:38,640 --> 00:54:39,000
Speaker 4: All right?

1219
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:42,120
Speaker 3: I like the Ravens to throttle the Falcons in Baltimore,

1220
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:45,520
Speaker 3: hopefully with Lamar Jackson back under center, and cover the

1221
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:46,320
Speaker 3: seven there.

1222
00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:48,480
Speaker 4: I like the Eagles against the Cowboys.

1223
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:50,879
Speaker 3: I just think, you know, the Cowboys, the way they're

1224
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:53,280
Speaker 3: stumbling around lately, I don't know if they can circle

1225
00:54:53,320 --> 00:54:56,359
Speaker 3: the wagons that quickly to take on a really good,

1226
00:54:56,440 --> 00:54:57,560
Speaker 3: really complete team.

1227
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:00,640
Speaker 4: And I was gonna say the Browns, but Treadman has.

1228
00:55:00,560 --> 00:55:03,440
Speaker 3: Really scared me off them with his strong Saints position

1229
00:55:03,680 --> 00:55:06,600
Speaker 3: and his Taysom Hill warning. So I think I'm gonna

1230
00:55:06,640 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 3: go over on Packers Dolphins like one of the few

1231
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:11,360
Speaker 3: games on the slate that is not going to be

1232
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 3: affected in any way by whether I think we're gonna

1233
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:14,600
Speaker 3: see points in that game.

1234
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:16,240
Speaker 1: Don't forget everybody.

1235
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:18,880
Speaker 2: Go to bet MGM, download the bet MGM app, and

1236
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:21,000
Speaker 2: use that promo code Betting Pros twenty five to get

1237
00:55:21,000 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 2: a risk free one thousand dollars first bet, plus twenty

1238
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:25,920
Speaker 2: five dollars after that first bet settle.

1239
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 1: So go check that out.

1240
00:55:26,960 --> 00:55:29,719
Speaker 2: It's a fantastic offer good this week. That'll do it

1241
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 2: for us, But the story of the game goes on

1242
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:32,000
Speaker 2: for Fitzen Friedman.

1243
00:55:32,040 --> 00:55:35,200
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids, enjoy

1244
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:36,080
Speaker 1: Week sixteen.