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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game so

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Speaker 1: smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Splendid sisting, just glorious.

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Speaker 3: Ex procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent

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Speaker 3: effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that?

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Speaker 2: Shop with find the buddy and that's why you see

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Speaker 2: nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying again. The wall, It's left too,

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Speaker 3: the wide eyed drill pibus, How old Earth, Big time happens.

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Speaker 5: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer betting

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Speaker 5: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lee

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Speaker 5: buff and joining me today to talk about some Champions League,

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Speaker 5: some midweek EPs, and even a little Europa League for

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Speaker 5: my friends and colleagues. BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo will

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Speaker 5: start with Liverpool and inter Milan. This game has taking

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Speaker 5: place at Anfield. Liverpool's odds on minus one eighty, inter

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Speaker 5: Milan plus four seventy five. The draw here is three

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Speaker 5: point forty. Liverpool won two nil in the first leg

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Speaker 5: away at San Zero, so it's a pretty big hill

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Speaker 5: for Inter to climb here. They're twelve to one to

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Speaker 5: get out of the round of sixteen and pull the upset. However,

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Speaker 5: despite Liverpool being unbeaten in fifteen games, they looked a

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Speaker 5: little shaky against West Ham, I would say, and I

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Speaker 5: think that some defensive regression is coming for the Reds.

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Speaker 5: They're seven oh to oh in their last seven games

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Speaker 5: in the Premier League, with just two goals against but

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Speaker 5: nearly six expectacles against. So I do think we could

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Speaker 5: see Inter get on the board here. Anthony, what about you?

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Speaker 4: You know, I really wanted to pass here and if

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Speaker 4: we were dealing with like a nil nil or if

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Speaker 4: this retired, I probably wouldn't play this because I really

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Speaker 4: just have a fear of betting against Liverpool at anfield

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Speaker 4: in the Champions League. But I bet Intern the first

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Speaker 4: lag and lost. I still feel like that was a

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Speaker 4: good bet. I'd bet it again. They only had fourteen

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Speaker 4: shots Liverpool did, and only point seven expected goals. If

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Speaker 4: you go back to the entire season fourteen shots, They've

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Speaker 4: only had five games all year they've had fewer than that.

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Speaker 2: One of them.

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Speaker 4: They played a bunch of backups against Porto, and that's

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Speaker 4: also the second fewest expected goals they produced in a

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Speaker 4: game all season. Both goals came off set pieces. Deserve

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Speaker 4: to win, you could argue, but I think Inter would

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Speaker 4: be pretty hard that we're pretty hard done by to

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Speaker 4: not get a point. There total carries and passes into

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Speaker 4: the penalty area where twelve eleven in favor of Liverpool.

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Speaker 4: Possession was pretty even. It wasn't like Inter was played

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Speaker 4: off the park or outclass or couldn't compete. And now

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Speaker 4: they go on the road, they have nothing to lose

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Speaker 4: and that could play in Liverpool's hands on the counter attack.

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Speaker 4: But Liverpool also just weren't effective at all on the

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Speaker 4: counter in the first leg whatsoever. So I'm taking Inter

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Speaker 4: plus one one ten. I think they keep its competitive.

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Speaker 4: I think a draw would be perfectly fine for Liverpool

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Speaker 4: to go through and they'll take it if it's tied late.

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Speaker 4: It's not like Liverpool's going to be pushing numbers forward

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Speaker 4: to try to go win the match. They don't need to,

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Speaker 4: and I think that definitely factors in, and Michael mentioned it.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you didn't even count the League Cup final,

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Speaker 4: which I'm still mad about. One point eight expected goals

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Speaker 4: for Chelsea, they hit two posts, miss multiple big chances

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Speaker 4: and then at the weekend, I mean west Ham had

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Speaker 4: an open net after a couple of bizarre sequences and

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Speaker 4: really probably should have got on the board in that

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Speaker 4: game as well.

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Speaker 2: One point five expected goals.

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Speaker 4: Liverpool's defense continues to never concede anything. Same with another

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Speaker 4: team in the Premier League. Who's driving me nuts right now?

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Speaker 4: But I think Liverpool's clear of the better team. My

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Speaker 4: numbers are actually pretty close, but because of the situational

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Speaker 4: aspect where they don't need to win, I'm grabbing interplus

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Speaker 4: one here. I also think inter they couldn't quite get

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Speaker 4: Jeck go in behind.

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Speaker 2: Against Liverpool's high line.

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Speaker 4: I think they might make some adjustments and they really

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Speaker 4: found a lot of success in behind Alexander Arnold with

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Speaker 4: Parisits getting in there. I think they can definitely repeat

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Speaker 4: that and go go there and try to get a

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Speaker 4: goal or to cover.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, this has been the kind of betting narrative around

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Speaker 5: Liverpool all season right. The price is definitely inflated, and

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Speaker 5: that's across like all the derivatives as well, and it's

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Speaker 5: do you want to just square out and take the

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Speaker 5: easy road, which hell, it might win and it has

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Speaker 5: won seven times in a row for Liverpool in the

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Speaker 5: Premier League. Or do you think maybe betting the numbers.

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Speaker 5: I think both teams to score minus one forty right now.

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Speaker 5: It's a little expensive, but I was looking that way

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Speaker 5: and I think I'll end up having a piece of

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Speaker 5: Inter on the money line and maybe just for fun,

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Speaker 5: little taste of the twelve to one to qualify. Because

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Speaker 5: there's something coming for Liverpool at some point, whether it's

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Speaker 5: against Enter or some a team in the Premier League.

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Speaker 5: Someone's going to pay off at a big number against them,

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Speaker 5: because they even against Norwich City, right they went behind

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Speaker 5: and then they did look shaky against West Ham, So

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Speaker 5: I think there's probably going to be an opportunity here

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Speaker 5: to catch in pretty big against the Reds. BJ anything

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Speaker 5: for you here before we move on.

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Speaker 1: No, I'm going to pass. If I played anything, I'd

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Speaker 1: do with anteon and Enter plus.

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Speaker 3: One problem I'm having with it is, yes, obviously Liverpool

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Speaker 3: was a tad fortunate to win two nothing, but Liverpool's

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Speaker 3: DNA is not just gonna say hey, let's just sit

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Speaker 3: back and defend for ninety minutes and just play for

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Speaker 3: his year zero draw if you look back through Champions

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Speaker 3: League's pass, you know last season against Leipzig they went

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Speaker 3: up to nothing in the first leg, won the second

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Speaker 3: league to nothing. Back in twenty nine eighteen nineteen, beat

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Speaker 3: Porto two nothing in the first leg and then beat

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Speaker 3: them for to one in the second leg. They're just

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Speaker 3: not going to sit back and defend for all ninety minutes.

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Speaker 3: Now they might sit back and say, hey, we're gonna

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Speaker 3: hit him on the counter. But Klop consistently in these

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Speaker 3: type of matches still goes full press, full board, even

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Speaker 3: though it is a two year old score line. So

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Speaker 3: I'll ultimately be passing inter kind of weird form right now.

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Speaker 3: They obviously, you know, smoke celarny Ton on Friday, but

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Speaker 3: before that they didn't score in four matches, but did

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Speaker 3: create over.

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Speaker 1: Five expected goals in those matches.

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Speaker 3: Also, Nico Borea didn't play in the first leg because

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Speaker 3: he was suspended. He will obviously be huge for intern

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Speaker 3: the second leg. He's sacking in the team and expected

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Speaker 3: this and progressive passes. So definitely leaning towards inter plus one.

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Speaker 3: But Liverpool consistently always makes me scared, So I'll just

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Speaker 3: step back and let Liverpool win three nothing.

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Speaker 5: The other game on Tuesday. Both of these are three

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Speaker 5: pm kickoffs on either CBS or CBS Sports or paramoun plus.

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Speaker 5: I guess it's called now. By the way, it's been

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Speaker 5: great that there's been Champions League soccer in the middle

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Speaker 5: of the afternoon on CBS. Proper soccer finally has arrived.

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Speaker 5: But the other match on Tuesday, Byron Munich, they are

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Speaker 5: prohibitive minus five twenty five favorites against RB Salzburg, who

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Speaker 5: are thirteen to one on the three way money line

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Speaker 5: to draw here is seven to one. Byron's minus twelve

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Speaker 5: hundred to advance Salzburg seven to one, despite the fact

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Speaker 5: that these two teams drew one to one in the

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Speaker 5: first leg of this fixture. Once again just bears reminding

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Speaker 5: away goals has been chalked off from the Champions League rules,

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Speaker 5: so it's just a straight up aggregate between across the

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Speaker 5: two legs. Bayron Munich's in weird form. They're two to

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Speaker 5: two and one win draw loss in their last five.

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Speaker 5: In those matches were talking about the match against Salzburg

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Speaker 5: and Leverkusen, those both draws, and then they lost to

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Speaker 5: Bochum as well. In the Bundesliga so it's not really

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Speaker 5: a bad time to be going against Bayron Munich. I

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Speaker 5: would say, whether you want to do that with a

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Speaker 5: team coming out of the Austrian Bundesliga re means to

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Speaker 5: be seen. I think that this game, and it's slow square,

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Speaker 5: has goals written all over it, and I don't mind

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Speaker 5: going for like an alternate total. I thought so over

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Speaker 5: five and a half, at over four to one, because

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Speaker 5: I could see this game ending four two, five to

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Speaker 5: two Byron being able to cover that almost by themselves

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Speaker 5: or at least do the heavy lifting. So that's where

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna be looking. Maybe look at a little bit

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Speaker 5: on Salzburg here, Anthony. Do you see any path to

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Speaker 5: success here for the Austrian underdogs?

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Speaker 2: I kind of do.

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Speaker 4: I think people are overreacting a little bit to what

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Speaker 4: happened in the first leg. Iron went on the road

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Speaker 4: and got a draw. They'll probably come home, they'll probably

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Speaker 4: win this match. But that being said, I still think

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Speaker 4: the price is a bit inflated on them. Salzburg has

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Speaker 4: the recipe of a team who can cause problems on

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Speaker 4: the on the counter and in transition, and that's pretty

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Speaker 4: much what they did.

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Speaker 2: I'm just not sure what's wrong with Byron. I think

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Speaker 2: there's a few things.

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Speaker 4: One, early in the season, the numbers they were putting

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Speaker 4: up were ridiculous, you know, we talked about they were

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Speaker 4: like plus two expectables per ninety different you know, that's

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Speaker 4: just absurd, and it's probably hard to sustain that level

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Speaker 4: of performance over a thirty eight or thirty four.

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Speaker 2: Game season plus the Champions League.

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Speaker 4: And what we're seeing is just natural that you know,

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Speaker 4: they're coming back down to earth a little bit. But

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Speaker 4: it also could be personnel related, and this is where

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Speaker 4: I think Byron are kind of figuring things out. They

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Speaker 4: played three at the back in the first meeting. They

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Speaker 4: had no problems getting the ball through the middle of

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Speaker 4: the pitch and getting it up towards the you know,

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Speaker 4: the final third, the penalty area. But when they lost

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Speaker 4: the ball, they were extremely exposed. And whether it was

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Speaker 4: Adamu or our guy Brendan Aronson, they had a lot

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Speaker 4: of ability to run in behind and in the channels

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Speaker 4: and get pretty much right through this defense, especially in

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Speaker 4: behind the wing backs because they were playing Colman and

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Speaker 4: ganabri Is the wing backs, with then Sane coming in

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Speaker 4: later in the game. So it's just a weird thing,

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Speaker 4: and I think they tried to address it on Saturday

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Speaker 4: when they played Leverkusen because they know how dangerous Leverkusen

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Speaker 4: is in similar ways up the wings and they played

200
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Speaker 4: fourth back, Omar Richards came in at left wing or

201
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Speaker 4: left back, and then they played two center backs with

202
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Speaker 4: mccono returning to the team, and they still conceded a

203
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Speaker 4: ton of chances one point eight expected goals. They've now

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Speaker 4: conceded eight in their last six in all competitions, and

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Speaker 4: that includes matches against groyther Firt Bochum, you know, not

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Speaker 4: exactly the top tier of the Bundesliga here, including you know,

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Speaker 4: they did play Leipzig and Leverkusen.

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Speaker 2: So there's something wrong with this defense.

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Speaker 4: And I really think it comes down to Davies has

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Speaker 4: not been there, and they don't have depth at left back,

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Speaker 4: and Gretzka has not been there, and they don't have

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Speaker 4: depth in the center of the midfield. So I think

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Speaker 4: Salisburg can hang around. You know, I'm fearful that this

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Speaker 4: could get two or three if it gets late and

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Speaker 4: Salisburg's pushing for goals and then Byron just crushed them

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Speaker 4: on the counter. But it too I'm gonna take it

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Speaker 4: because I just think it's a little inflated and I think,

218
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Speaker 4: you know, Byron's regression is real. I mean, they only

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Speaker 4: out created their opponents about thirteen to eight in the

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Speaker 4: last six matches, which is not very Byron like. And

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Speaker 4: I think we're going to continue to see them come

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Speaker 4: down to earth. I'm very confident they are not one

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Speaker 4: of the two best teams in the world right now.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, they have been playing like that too. That kind

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Speaker 5: of take has born out and the results. I think

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Speaker 5: I'd be interesting to see where the market goes here

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Speaker 5: because I do think a lot of people will be

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Speaker 5: on Salisburg. Maybe not your casual fans, but I do

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Speaker 5: think we'll see some money come in on the underdog here.

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Speaker 5: And I know, Bija, you're leading that way. You're a

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Speaker 5: sharp guy, so maybe you're the one to set the market.

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Speaker 1: Well, thank you. Yeah, I'm with Anthony. I like Salisburg

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Speaker 1: plus too.

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Speaker 3: You know, if you look through the box score of

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Speaker 3: Byron versus Salisburg and you'll probably say, oh my gosh,

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Speaker 3: Byron pretty much dominated the entire match. I think a

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Speaker 3: lot of it was indicative of Salisburg's scoring first and

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Speaker 3: early enough, they kind of sat back in their two

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Speaker 3: little blocks and just tried they just really try to

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Speaker 3: defend like hell and see the match out, and it

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Speaker 3: almost worked. But you know, Byron ended up with seventy

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Speaker 3: one percent possession, but they did only create two big

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Speaker 3: scoring chances, you know, two point one expected goals off

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Speaker 3: of twenty two shots. Byron usually averages around three and

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Speaker 3: a half big scoring chances for match in the Bundesligas.

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Speaker 3: So Salzburg we talk a lot about these smaller sides

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Speaker 3: who are not used to having the ball and they're

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Speaker 3: domestically used to dominating some of their lower sides domestically.

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Speaker 1: But Salzburg does play.

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Speaker 3: Out of a four to four to two, so at

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Speaker 3: least they have that type of defensive structure and they

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Speaker 3: can actually defend and sit back and try to.

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Speaker 1: Hit Byron on the counter.

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Speaker 3: We've talked about it a couple times, but when these

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Speaker 3: two teams met last Champions League group stage, Salzburg actually

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Speaker 3: kind of dominated Bayern Munich. In Munich in the first meeting,

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Speaker 3: they created three point two expected goals compared only one

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Speaker 3: point three for Byron, and Byron somehow walked away with

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Speaker 3: three to one win. But I think the most important

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Speaker 3: thing here is Anthony.

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Speaker 1: The dail ahead.

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Speaker 3: No Manuel Noyer, no Alfonso Davies, and no Gretzka is

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Speaker 3: causing some problems.

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Speaker 1: Obviously Byron has a lot of depth.

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Speaker 3: And they can replace those guys, but those guys are

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Speaker 3: pretty valuable to what Byron tries to do. As far

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Speaker 3: as a projection standpoint, I only have Byron projected at

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Speaker 3: minus one point three, So Salisburg plus two at even

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Speaker 3: money is definitely a decent price. And I think the

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Speaker 3: thing with Byron is right now, they're pretty much safe

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Speaker 3: in the Bundesliga. They're probably gonna win it once again.

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Speaker 3: They have a nine point leader for Dormant, but Dorman

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Speaker 3: does have a game in hand, so you could see

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Speaker 3: them putting everything all in here in the Champions League.

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Speaker 3: But I'll be honest, Salzburg just from the eye test,

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Speaker 3: they looked really good against Byron, So I'm I'm all

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Speaker 3: on the Austrian team here. So Salisburg plus two even money.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they're very young, they pressed they can run for hours,

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Speaker 4: they don't really, They're not the kind of team who's

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Speaker 4: gonna run out of gas and let Byron kind of

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Speaker 4: just cook them in the last twenty minutes. Their profile

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Speaker 4: of the team, you know, pretty good defensive, pressing team.

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Speaker 4: I still have questions about the attack, but Byron's been

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Speaker 4: so bad defensively that I think they naturally can create

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Speaker 4: a few chances.

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Speaker 2: And I was pretty concerned.

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Speaker 4: I mean, BJ and I both had Byron over the

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Speaker 4: weekend that was dead even you know, they are a

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Speaker 4: one nail that was a fluky owned goal, and then

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Speaker 4: even then it wasn't great. I mean, le Verracuzin easily

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Speaker 4: could have scored another one or two in the second

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Speaker 4: in the second half, so they're just you know, I'm

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Speaker 4: not sure what it is, you know, and I think,

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Speaker 4: you know, with Daties coming back, they'll get better. But

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Speaker 4: just shoving all the good attackers on the pitch and

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Speaker 4: then seeing what happens has not worked for douglesmen. So

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Speaker 4: I'm interested to see what the lineup is. I think

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Speaker 4: it's gonna be interesting. They're gonna play four to back,

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Speaker 4: three at the back no matter what they play. I

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Speaker 4: think Salsberg showed that they can compete in this in

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Speaker 4: this time.

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Speaker 5: There's also big mentioning that Byron they're going to be

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Speaker 5: priced as one of if they do advances as I'd

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Speaker 5: suggest that they should. They will be priced as one

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Speaker 5: of the two three favorites along with Liverpool and City

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Speaker 5: for the quarterfinals, So potential opportunity to fade them in

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Speaker 5: that round as well. And we'll see what the draw is, yeah, exactly,

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Speaker 5: depending on who they play if they get through. All right,

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Speaker 5: let's move to Wednesday. Real Madrid there plus one sixty

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Speaker 5: hosting PSG plus one sixty five. The draw here is

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Speaker 5: plus two to fifty five In Madrid. PSG one the

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Speaker 5: first like one nil on Achillian and Bape moment of magic,

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Speaker 5: and that has pushed them to minus three hundred two

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Speaker 5: advance Madrid is plus two twenty five. I think for

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Speaker 5: most of the season we've been pretty harsh on this

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Speaker 5: PSG team. For I think we could it'd be fair

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Speaker 5: to say that we thought they were a paper tiger.

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Speaker 5: I think that tune maybe is changing a little bit,

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Speaker 5: Is that right, Anthony?

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Speaker 4: I mean they went out and had like three pretty

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Speaker 4: mediocre performances, and you know, after the huge win against

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Speaker 4: Real Madrid, right, they go and they play Nuns that weekend.

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Speaker 2: They lose. They created four expected goals, lost three to one.

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Speaker 4: It was a bizarre hangover spot, okay, whatever, They had

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Speaker 4: a solid three to one win against Sanatia, did concede

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Speaker 4: first struggled a little bit, then kind of clicked in

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Speaker 4: the gear in the second half.

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Speaker 2: Then they lose to Nice over the weekend.

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Speaker 4: Pretty flat performance, one of their worst of the season

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Speaker 4: in attack at least. And so now ray, you know,

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Speaker 4: you say, okay, what's on PSG or are they just

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Speaker 4: kind of like in grew control And that's really the

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Speaker 4: existential debate. I think last year there were legitimate concerns

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Speaker 4: with PSG because I mean, they were in the title

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Speaker 4: race and they weren't putting up good numbers in legue huh,

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Speaker 4: and they didn't win the league. Now, I think when

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Speaker 4: you consider the form they had leading up to the

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Speaker 4: match against Real Madrid and then how they played in

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Speaker 4: the Real Madrid match, I'm okay with the fact that

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Speaker 4: they had three subpower performances immediately thereafter. If you look

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Speaker 4: at the choices Postino made in the first leg four

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Speaker 4: to three three, everybody said MESSI.

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Speaker 2: Kind of looked like he's over the hill.

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Speaker 4: Will He had five key passes, eleven progressive passes, was

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Speaker 4: one of the best you know, ball progressives in the

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Speaker 4: in the whole match. Perettis was unbelievable when you look

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Speaker 4: at his numbers in terms of ball progression through the midfield,

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Speaker 4: and Danilo offered a good amount of defensive work as well,

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Speaker 4: so they kind of found the balance of you know,

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Speaker 4: Varati is one of the best all around midfielders in

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Speaker 4: the world. They found a balance that I think really

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Speaker 4: bothered Real Madrid. The question is now does Real Madrid

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Speaker 4: come back and say, okay, well, now we're the team

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Speaker 4: chasing the goal. In the first leg, it was easy

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Speaker 4: for realit to sit back. They had three shots point

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Speaker 4: one XG. Their only legitimate shot came off of a

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Speaker 4: corner right before halftime, so they they didn't need to score.

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Speaker 4: They were achieving their result for the first ninety three minutes.

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Speaker 4: I don't know what it looks like when Real Madrid

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Speaker 4: has to come out and play now, though, because I

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Speaker 4: think PSG might just counter the hell out of them,

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Speaker 4: and I think it could get really ugly for Real

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Speaker 4: Madrid if their fullbacks are caught way up the pitch

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Speaker 4: and PSG is all of a sudden able to do

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Speaker 4: their PSG things.

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Speaker 2: They did to Buyer last year.

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Speaker 4: They did it to Barsa and really did it to

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Speaker 4: City in certain parts of that first leg.

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Speaker 2: So I think PSG I lean that way. I don't

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Speaker 2: have a pregame play here.

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Speaker 4: If Real scores first, I'm going to be hopping on

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Speaker 4: some PSG live to advance PSG in every which way.

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Speaker 4: I certainly lean toward PSG. I just I'm not buying

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Speaker 4: Real Madrid.

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Speaker 2: I haven't.

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Speaker 4: You know, as much as I've been a critic of

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Speaker 4: PSG through most of the fall, they've seen improvement. The

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Speaker 4: realit improvement. It's there, but I still have question marks

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Speaker 4: about them chasing here where I think it could play

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Speaker 4: right into ps cheese hands.

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Speaker 5: Get three wins on the spin since they're lost to PSG.

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Speaker 5: For Real Madrid eight goals for one goal against the

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Speaker 5: underlying metrics and those matches are good. But yeah, this

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Speaker 5: is likely a pass for me. I don't hate the

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Speaker 5: draw here. I think that either one of these teams

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00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,760
Speaker 5: is built to run away with this match, so that

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Speaker 5: draw should always be in play. We'll see where that

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Speaker 5: number goes, though, BJ you are thinking goals.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was interesting Real Madrid's game plan.

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Speaker 3: I did not expect them to come out just basically

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Speaker 3: sitting back defensively and just letting PSG have the ball

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Speaker 3: from majority of the match, given how bad they've really

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Speaker 3: been defensively throughout most of the season.

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Speaker 1: So now they're gonna have to come out, they're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to play.

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Speaker 3: And what was more shocking in that first one is

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Speaker 3: that it's fine to sit back defensively and try to

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Speaker 3: beat somebody on the counter like that's that's not a

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Speaker 3: horrible game plan, especially against a team like PSG. But

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Speaker 3: Real Madrid is just so sloppy in that type of transistion.

401
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Speaker 3: You know, fifty eight percent of their possessions were in transition,

402
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Speaker 3: but only four percent of them ended up in PSG's

403
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Speaker 3: final third, and so basically they had around They had

404
00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 3: zero expected goals in transition, and Veneti's junior, Modrich and Benzma.

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Speaker 1: Combined for point zero nine expected goals plus expected assists.

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Speaker 1: That is not going to get a ton against PSG.

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Speaker 3: So, with Real Madrid having to come out and having

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Speaker 3: to play essentially on the front foot for this match,

409
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Speaker 3: Anthony Anthony on the head, it's going to create up

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Speaker 3: the PSG might just score two, maybe even three goals

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Speaker 3: in transition because no Casamiro is incredibly vital for Real

412
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Speaker 3: Madrid because he is the one who protects their back line.

413
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Speaker 3: No Tony Kruz that also is horrible for Real Madrid,

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Speaker 3: and then no Forlan Mendi. So a lot of problems

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Speaker 3: for Real Madrid defensively in this one. But at that

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Speaker 3: same token, they've looked really good offensively. I'm curious to

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Speaker 3: see what PSG is going to do in this match.

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Speaker 3: My guess is probably sit deep and then looked hit

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Speaker 3: on the counter. So my guess is this will probably

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Speaker 3: end up being somewhat of an open match, Real Madrid

421
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Speaker 3: having to really be on the front foot trying to

422
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Speaker 3: get the ball end of the box. I think we're

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Speaker 3: going to see some goals, a lot of high quality

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Speaker 3: chances at both ends. I have three point three goals projected,

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Speaker 3: so I like over three goals at plus one ten.

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Speaker 5: The other match on Wednesday is a pretty awkward one

427
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Speaker 5: Man City. They won five nil against Sporting Lisbon in

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Speaker 5: the first leg, and so this is this one's done

429
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Speaker 5: at dust. It's still even with a B maybe C

430
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Speaker 5: squad coming from Man City. Their minus six fifty favorites

431
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Speaker 5: at home. Lisbon is fifteen to one at DraftKings. Right now,

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Speaker 5: the draws eight to one. I saw Sporting as high

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Speaker 5: as twenty to one. That was at Caesars here in

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Speaker 5: New York. I'm not gonna pass on that because what

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Speaker 5: there's no imperative for And this is a debate we

436
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,640
Speaker 5: can have all the time in these spots with what

437
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:53,120
Speaker 5: good does Pep get out of risking any players here

438
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 5: at all? He's there in a title race in the

439
00:19:55,640 --> 00:20:00,719
Speaker 5: Premier League, they have no nothing going on. He so

440
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 5: I just if I was him, I would play the

441
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 5: U twenty three side. They're not gonna lose five to

442
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:10,879
Speaker 5: NOL So I'll be taking a bite on Sporting twenty

443
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:14,119
Speaker 5: to one on the money line or if it goes higher,

444
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,000
Speaker 5: good for me, BJ you look beside yourself.

445
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:19,800
Speaker 3: He won't do that though. That's the crazy part is

446
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 3: that they're a five to nothing.

447
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 1: He's not going to do that. He might rotate like

448
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:24,719
Speaker 1: he might bring in like Ak or something.

449
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 3: He might play Raheem Sterling instead of Jack Realish, but

450
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:30,600
Speaker 3: it's still going to be a pretty a squad for

451
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,119
Speaker 3: Manchester City, which makes absolutely no sense.

452
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 1: But he's still going to do it.

453
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:38,119
Speaker 3: They have Crystal Palace coming up this weekend in the

454
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,200
Speaker 3: Premier League. On the road which is a pretty big

455
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 3: match for them, especially in the title race. So you'd

456
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 3: think maybe play Cole Palmer, maybe play some of the other,

457
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:48,040
Speaker 3: like you said, the U twenty three guys.

458
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 1: But that's not going to happen.

459
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 3: So I'm going to give this match a big old

460
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 3: who cares and I'm gonna move on to another one.

461
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 5: Antony eddithing for you here.

462
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I passed the easiest pass on the board.

463
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 4: I mean, look, there's a great game, real it's gonna

464
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 4: pay PSG and there's some Europa League on Wednesday.

465
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:05,960
Speaker 2: You know, watch that, don't watch this.

466
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,600
Speaker 4: I mean, look, from a betting point of view, I've

467
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,399
Speaker 4: been anti Sporting and I'm still anti Sporting, so I

468
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,199
Speaker 4: don't have any interest in betting them at all, no

469
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 4: matter what the price is.

470
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 2: Now, if the lineup comes out.

471
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:17,640
Speaker 4: But the thing is, by the time the lineup were

472
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 4: to come out and then the market starts, you know

473
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:22,399
Speaker 4: you're gonna miss out on right. That's that's why the

474
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 4: number which is which is to Michael's point, right, you

475
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:26,680
Speaker 4: grab the number now and okay, maybe City does play

476
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:31,240
Speaker 4: Cole Palmer and you know, uh Ederson doesn't get the start,

477
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,680
Speaker 4: and you know Ruben Dia has got an injury, so

478
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,400
Speaker 4: he's out for a while now. So like there are

479
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 4: some things where City where you're like, ah, you know,

480
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 4: maybe they're a touch over valued. But like Bjay mentioned

481
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 4: in the same sense, you know, it's like, Okay, we're

482
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 4: not gonna play Jack Greeala today, We're only going to

483
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 4: play Riadmrez and Phil Foden.

484
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 5: Oh Man.

485
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, So no interest for me in betting this match,

486
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 4: he said, City, we're getting ready for the draw. Let's

487
00:21:58,280 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 4: see we get in the quarter. So it could be good.

488
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,359
Speaker 5: Be good if you if you are betting Sporting, like

489
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 5: you should just do it now. And because the bet

490
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 5: is it's basically a part of a three leg parlay

491
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:12,400
Speaker 5: of will Pep play his reserves? Will Sporting play there?

492
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 5: Because why would they risk players too?

493
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:17,119
Speaker 4: I still think it's in a way day in the

494
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,160
Speaker 4: Champions League at Matson, like you're trying to give it a.

495
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 5: Go, right, But I'm just saying, like this, this is

496
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 5: what you're betting on, right, Like I think they will too,

497
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 5: but you're betting on that that and then the third

498
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 5: leg of course is them winning, which will be the

499
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 5: trickiest part, but that is it for the Champions League

500
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 5: for Tuesday and Wednesday, but there is some Premier League

501
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 5: Two as well on Thursday afternoon. We'll start with We'll

502
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 5: start at Carol Road with Norwich City eleven to one

503
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 5: on the money line hosting Chelsea minus three seventy. The

504
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 5: draw here is plus four seventy five. Nord City, God

505
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 5: love them, gave it a real go. A couple of

506
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 5: weeks ago it looked like, hey, you know, maybe they

507
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 5: will get out of the relegation zoner at least make

508
00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 5: a scrap of it. Doesn't look that way anymore. Zero

509
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 5: to four win, draw, loss in their last four Premier

510
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 5: League matches twelve goals against two goals four. I'm not

511
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 5: really looking too much into their FA Cup with Liverpool

512
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 5: because I think it would have behooved them to lose

513
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,640
Speaker 5: that match. If they are it's truly trying to stay up,

514
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 5: and they haven't created over an expected goal one expected

515
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 5: goal in any of those matches. The schedule not the

516
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 5: easiest City, Liverpool, Southampton and Brentford. That Brentford game is

517
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 5: the one I'm looking at the most here because they

518
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 5: just did not look good. I know Dean Smith was

519
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,880
Speaker 5: talking about the reps a lot, but I thought Brentford

520
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,159
Speaker 5: was a better team full value from start to finish,

521
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 5: and Chelsea surprised us all by going to Burnley and

522
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 5: pulling pulling out the win so easily. It was neil

523
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 5: nil at half time. Chelsea ends up winning four nil

524
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 5: in a really really impressive second half up there at

525
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 5: Turf Moore. I'll be passing on this one pretty easily.

526
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 5: I think it's just this is a weird, weird matchup.

527
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 5: I don't really think Norwich has a chance. Chelsea looking

528
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 5: better of late. I think we could say so easy

529
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 5: one to look away from for me, beacha anything for

530
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 5: you Canaries and the Blues.

531
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, happy, happy to pass in this one. The last

532
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,119
Speaker 3: time these two teams met, if you remember, it was

533
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 3: a seven to nothing drobbing by a Chelsea but I

534
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,360
Speaker 3: think they created alling around like two point eight expected goals.

535
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 3: It was one of the It was basically like the

536
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 3: peak of the Chelsea overperformance.

537
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 1: But now, like you said, they've been looking a little better.

538
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,199
Speaker 3: It's it's it's it's an easy pass for me and Norwich.

539
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 1: What is it?

540
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 3: One goal for thirty against against the top seven this year.

541
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 5: So and Anthony thinks that they're going to score again.

542
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 5: So yeah, like.

543
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,719
Speaker 3: It's just it's an easy pass. I'll let Anthony tell

544
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 3: everybody how. I don't know how about how Norwich is

545
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 3: going to score a goal.

546
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 4: So if you guys are you know, loyal listeners of

547
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 4: the pod, we appreciate you. Two weeks ago Norwich went

548
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 4: to Anfield. They were plus one thirty to score and

549
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 4: in the first minute of the game, I had still

550
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 4: was pulling out the TV, but I got the flash

551
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 4: score thing where it says like big score and I'm like,

552
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 4: oh my god, Norwich scored in the first minute, Like

553
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 4: this is the greatest day of my life. They ruled

554
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:02,679
Speaker 4: them off sides, so I'm like, all right, well, now

555
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 4: are there is no chance for scoring? And I'm watching

556
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 4: the game the whole time and I'm like, nope, no

557
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 4: chance And then they get a deflected goal and I screamed.

558
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 4: I mean it was incredible, because no longer can we

559
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 4: say that Norwich has not scored against any of the

560
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 4: big six in west Ham this season. They now have

561
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 4: one goal. They only had about point seven expected in

562
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 4: that match against Liverpool, but you know what, We'll take it.

563
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 2: It was a beautiful cash.

564
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 4: The number is not there for me on this one,

565
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 4: they are plus one ten to score. I would need

566
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 4: plus one twenty one thirty to think about it. If

567
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 4: it gets to that, I'm going to play it, because again,

568
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 4: I mean, how could you not watch the first half

569
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,159
Speaker 4: at Burnley and think, Man, Chelsea's really been getting the

570
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 4: let off here?

571
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 2: I mean miss an open net. They were discombobulated at

572
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:47,439
Speaker 2: the back, and they refocused at halftime.

573
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 1: They turned on the Jets.

574
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,679
Speaker 2: They scored four deserved winners. Good performance from Chelsea. But

575
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 2: I'll be honest. I was watching the first half and

576
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 2: I was like Burley.

577
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 4: You know, I didn't have Burnley, but I was thinking, like, man,

578
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:58,120
Speaker 4: Burnley really is going to score here.

579
00:25:58,320 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 2: Wonder who Chelsea has next.

580
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 4: So I went on to my foot mob AAP but

581
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 4: I said, oh, Norwich away, that's going to be a

582
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 4: good price for a little Norwich team total over. Again,

583
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 4: the price isn't there, but it's close, and don't be

584
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,440
Speaker 4: surprised come Sunday or Saturday or Thursday if you see

585
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 4: me put Norwich team total.

586
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:17,120
Speaker 5: Over a half.

587
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 4: If we get like plus one twenty, I'm going to

588
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 4: play it and it's going to suck. But I think

589
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 4: Chelsea's defense continues to just outrun this regression mania forever.

590
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 4: They had a period where they were conceding like a

591
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 4: goal every game in December and January, and I think

592
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 4: their attack is clearly better. Reach James has made them better.

593
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 4: Kai Haverts is really playing excellent right now. Poolistic hartz

594
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:41,399
Speaker 4: Mount is just like an awesome front three and I

595
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 4: think their attacks can to improve, especially with James back,

596
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 4: but the defense still has problems. I think, so we'll see.

597
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:52,479
Speaker 5: Southampton are even money favorites at home hosting Newcastle United

598
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 5: plus two seventy. The draw here is plus two sixty,

599
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 5: Newcastle man five three and zero win Droe loss in

600
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 5: their list with a plus seven goal differential, the fourth

601
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 5: most points in the Premier League since Boxing Day, despite

602
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,439
Speaker 5: playing fewer matches than basically everyone in that span the

603
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 5: Eddie Howe Revolution and Newcastle, it looks legitimate. I didn't

604
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 5: think this was going to be You're all wrong, Yeah,

605
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 5: I didn't think this is how it was going to go.

606
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 5: I mean, he's getting some really good performances out of

607
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 5: players who out of nowhere, Joe Linton, it is kind

608
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,360
Speaker 5: of the poster boy for that. They were I think

609
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 5: a little fortunate to get away with the win against Brighton,

610
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 5: it was basically a coin flip. On the other hand, Southampton,

611
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 5: they were pretty poor against aston Villa. This I thought

612
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 5: this was going to be a pretty good opportunity to

613
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 5: once again sell Halley in Newcastle and maybe by low

614
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 5: On Southampton, but that didn't seem to be the case.

615
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 5: With the number even money in Southampton not that enticing.

616
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,119
Speaker 5: If it does get up there, I'll be on it.

617
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 5: But bj you think the Saints are still worth it.

618
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, you can find some plus final fives plus one

619
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 3: ten's out there for Southampton. I like you mentioned, I

620
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 3: think this is just a really good by low Sell

621
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 3: high spot for both these teams, Southampton coming off that

622
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 3: dropping by aston Villa.

623
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 1: But it really wasn't as bad as it seemed.

624
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 5: You know.

625
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 3: Aston Villa capitalized on a lot of their counter attacking opportunities,

626
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 3: but Southampton ended up holding sixty two percent possession, their

627
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:14,679
Speaker 3: pass per defensive action was around eight point two, and

628
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,959
Speaker 3: they still created close to one expected goal. So while Newcastle,

629
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 3: like you mentioned, they're two to one win against Brighton

630
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 3: wasn't that convincing all. They allowed Brighton to hold sixty

631
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 3: eight percent possession and Brighton also had thirty two touches

632
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 3: in the penalty are compared to only seventeen for Newcastle.

633
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 3: So Newcastle's obviously been on this good run. They've gotten

634
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 3: out of the relegation fight, but there underlying results are

635
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 3: telling me a.

636
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: Little bit of negative progression is coming.

637
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 3: So if you take out you go to their last

638
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 3: six matches, you take out the match against Brentford where

639
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 3: they were up amand for eighty minutes of the match

640
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 3: they have a plus five actual goal differential and only

641
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 3: around a plus two point two expected goal differential, and

642
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 3: this matchup against Southampton, there are some worry worrying signs

643
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 3: here for Newcastle.

644
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 1: They don't play well through pressure.

645
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 3: In fact, since the January transfer Windo, Newcastle's offensive pass

646
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 3: per defensive actions around eight point four, which is fifth

647
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 3: worst in the Premier League. So I'm guessing they're probably

648
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 3: going to struggle quite a bit against Southampton's phonetic pressing.

649
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 1: When these two teams met earlier in the season.

650
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 3: I know circumstances have changed pretty big since then, but

651
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 3: Southampton did completely dominate them three point six, expected goals

652
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,280
Speaker 3: only one point four and we're really unlucky to draw

653
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 3: to two. Southampton also much better at home than they

654
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,959
Speaker 3: are on the road. Plus five point three expected goal

655
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 3: Diffrenchill at the Saint Mary's Stadium versus minus seven point

656
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 3: six on the road.

657
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 1: So I like the Saints at plus one oh five.

658
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 3: I haven't projected at minus one fifteen, so a little

659
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 3: bit of value on the Saints money.

660
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 5: Line, Anthony. I think if this game was played two

661
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 5: months ago, it would have felt like an auto over.

662
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 5: But now, weirdly, with Eddie Howe, who's known as a

663
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 5: let's say, defensively ignorant manager, and Ralph Hassen Hudle and

664
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 5: Southampton have been kind of a they feel like an

665
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 5: over team as well. You're still thinking under now.

666
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 4: Wasn't that long ago Southampton was, you know, underperforming their

667
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 4: expected goals, couldn't create finish a chance, languishing at the

668
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 4: bottom of the table. You know, felt great about my

669
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 4: under point total. You know, times have changed, and I

670
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 4: think that the market's really changed. I mean, you're almost

671
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 4: at you're over two in three quarters. Here it's closer

672
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 4: to two to three than it is to two and

673
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 4: a half. It's a little high, not quite high enough

674
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 4: for me to go under, but that would be certainly

675
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 4: the look Newcastle's attack has improved for sure under anyhow,

676
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 4: but I'm it just feels like the kind of game

677
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 4: where when you look at the fact that Southampton has

678
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 4: run ridiculously hot twenty I mentioned it last time, twenty

679
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 4: one goals from fifteen expected in ten games now eleven games.

680
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 4: It's well above what you'd expect given the talent level,

681
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 4: almost two expected goals a game. There is going to

682
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 4: be some regression coming. I still have them power rated

683
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 4: as the fourteenth best team in the league right now,

684
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 4: and they're sitting up there in tenth, you know, so

685
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 4: I'm not quite a believer in then, but I'm also

686
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 4: not really a believer in Newcastle either. And when that's

687
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 4: the case and both attacks have been creating and scoring

688
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 4: a lot of chances, there tends to be a natural

689
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 4: under situation.

690
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 2: But again Bja mentioned it stylistically. There was almost five

691
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 2: expected goals I think in the first meeting. So it's a.

692
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 4: Pretty concerning matchup perspective, with Southampton causing problems with their

693
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 4: press and then conceding chance at the other end.

694
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 2: They just play these frenetic games.

695
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 4: It's almost like a Bundesliga match in some ways, and

696
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 4: so that scares me to play the under here with

697
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 4: them right now, with the way that their games have

698
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 4: been going, so I would lean towards the under. But

699
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 4: if if I can get if I can't get three,

700
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:30,959
Speaker 4: I'm probably not playing need three.

701
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 5: Roy Hodgson and Watford it's hilarious what he's been doing

702
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 5: with them for the first twenty two games of the season.

703
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 5: As we noted zero clean sheets for Watford. Since then,

704
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 5: he's got three and that is just in seven matches.

705
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 5: So good for Roy. It's fun to watch him do this.

706
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 5: Watford under Hodgson one two and four win, draw, lost,

707
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 5: four goals for ten goals against seven point one expected

708
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 5: goals for eight point seven to four expects against, So

709
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 5: an actual market improvement on defense for Watford from where

710
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 5: they were under Cisco and Claudio Vernieri. Wolves, on the

711
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 5: other hand, Wolves are funny to me because there's only

712
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 5: a few teams in the Premier League who have drawn

713
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 5: fewer matches than Wolves. They have four on the season.

714
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 5: I think there's three teams with three and then a

715
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 5: bunch with four, and they play to such a style

716
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 5: or their games have had such have been such draw

717
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 5: friendly environments. One point seventy four total goals per game

718
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 5: in Wolves matches, which is the lowest in the Premier

719
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 5: League by half a goal so far this season, and

720
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 5: still no draws in their last nine matches. For Wolves,

721
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 5: they're five to zero and four wind draw loss with

722
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 5: a plus two goal differential a minus four expect to

723
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 5: go differential. I think Watford hangs with them here. Hodgson's

724
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 5: defensive improvement does seem to be legitimate. The question is

725
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 5: whether or not they'll be able to score enough to

726
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 5: keep themselves hanging around the Premier League past the season,

727
00:32:57,840 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 5: and I think that's a legitimate question. But I think

728
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 5: in this matter they shouldn't have too much of a

729
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 5: problem considering this Wolves attack is a little bit toothless

730
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 5: this season. So I'm gonna take a shot on the

731
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 5: draw here. I think what's just like I was mentioning

732
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 5: with Real Madrid at PSG, which is a very similar

733
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 5: matchup as to Wolves and Watford. I just don't think

734
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 5: that the draw will ever be out of play here,

735
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 5: A zero zero, one to one, it's definitely not out

736
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 5: of the question. So plus two fifty on the draw

737
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 5: for me, Wolves and Watford BJA anything for you here?

738
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 3: No, I'm happy to pass here. I have Wolves projected

739
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 3: a minus one oh seven. I can't figure them out.

740
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 3: Obviously was a nice cash crystal palace this past weekend.

741
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 3: But Watford, man, they're just They still had a lot

742
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 3: of a lot of leakiness against Arsenal on Sunday, and

743
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 3: that worries me of Wolves. This Wolves attack, ever decides

744
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 3: to show up and play up to the level of

745
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 3: their talent. But yeah, it's I'm happy to pass on this.

746
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 3: Maybe potentially looking at both teams to score if we

747
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 3: can get it at you know, plus one ten, plus

748
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 3: one twenty maybe, but it's passed for me.

749
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 2: I didn't want to say my two favorite words.

750
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, there's no way you're sitting this one out though, No.

751
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 2: Absolutely not.

752
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 4: I'm on Watford plus a half Wolves finally, right. The

753
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 4: regression is coming. Three straight losses, three straight deserved losses.

754
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 4: They almost stole the result against Arsenal. It pained me

755
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 4: the fan and me the Totenham fan, and me was

756
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 4: pained by that last second goal that Arsenal scored, but

757
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 4: the analytics person in me appreciated it because it was

758
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:29,400
Speaker 4: so deserved.

759
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,359
Speaker 2: And I'm tired of this Wolves team. I'm fading them

760
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 2: into oblivion, and I'm going to continue fading them. I've

761
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 2: faded them against Palace and I'm fading them again here.

762
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 2: I just don't I can't get to the number either.

763
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 4: My numbers make Wolves plus one thirty, so I've got

764
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 4: Watford minus one thirty to get a point. I can

765
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 4: get them at minus one fifteen right now. Minus one

766
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 4: twenties are out there, so not a huge value play.

767
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 4: But again with the regression indicators for this Wolves team,

768
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 4: again they actually overperformed defensively. Conceded two point six expected

769
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 4: goals of you include the penalty. Palace had the same

770
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,879
Speaker 4: number of shots. And this was at Malnu, where again

771
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 4: Wolves are bottom half of the table. Their fourteenth and

772
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,399
Speaker 4: expected goal difference at home. Watford's the much more desperate team,

773
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 4: and I was pretty impressed by Watford's performance today. Arsenal

774
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 4: credit them had a couple of really great attacking moves

775
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 4: to score their goals. It didn't feel like Arsenal were

776
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:19,280
Speaker 4: totally dominating the match. Watford consistently looked dangerous on the counter.

777
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 4: They had a few chances that I thought, you know,

778
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 4: they could have taken. It really made this game in

779
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,680
Speaker 4: that match more interesting, and they almost did equalize late,

780
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,360
Speaker 4: scoring a Lake goal in like the eighty six minute

781
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 4: great play from muss Sosoco, but really an encouraging attacking

782
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,839
Speaker 4: performance well over one expected goal. I think they can

783
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 4: counter effectively here against Wolves and this Wolves attack I

784
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 4: mean one point four expected goals their last two matches

785
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 4: against west Ham and Pallace, who are above average defenses

786
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 4: but not great ones and Watford I think sets up

787
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,439
Speaker 4: perfectly to sit deep, make Wolves try to beat them.

788
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,799
Speaker 4: Wolves probably can't do that, and then hit them on

789
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 4: the counter and steal a goal here and maybe even

790
00:35:58,000 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 4: win this match.

791
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:03,879
Speaker 5: Oh man, I do not like the over for the record. Well,

792
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,359
Speaker 5: glad to clarified. Glad to clarified that one. All right,

793
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,959
Speaker 5: let's wrap up the Premier League slate for this week

794
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 5: with Leads United Jesse Marsh's Leeds United there plus one

795
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 5: eighty hosting Aston Villa plus one fifty five. The draw

796
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 5: is plus two forty five. Is another Thursday afternoon kickoff.

797
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 5: How about this for Leads two point one four expectacles

798
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 5: four only zero point three six allowed in a one

799
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 5: zer loss to Leicester City over the weekend. That is

800
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 5: as un Leads as it gets. I think is.

801
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 3: Their best the best expectable differential of the season in

802
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 3: any match.

803
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 2: They lose, isn't it their best defensive performance as well?

804
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 1: Yes?

805
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, unbelievable.

806
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, and they find a way to lose it. It's

807
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 5: that is.

808
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 1: Five year contract extension for jesse Marsh right away.

809
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:49,319
Speaker 5: Well, I guess that begs a question, right, Like I

810
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 5: like Leads, I know you both like Leads. I like

811
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 5: them on the money line at home to get the

812
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 5: job done. Are we reading too much into just one

813
00:36:55,760 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 5: game from jesse Marsh's tenure at Leeds and and the

814
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 5: defensive improvement in that game which was going to come

815
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:05,399
Speaker 5: like there was no way this team was that bad

816
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 5: defensively it was going to continue to play that bad defensively.

817
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 5: But I also think that Aston Villa is the type

818
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 5: of team even if if Leads if this, if there

819
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,800
Speaker 5: is some there are some growing pains defensively for Leads,

820
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 5: Villa's offense isn't the type to really take advantage of that.

821
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 5: So I don't really fear going against them, especially on

822
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 5: the road, with the team that can score like Leads.

823
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:30,240
Speaker 5: So I'll take the Peacocks plus one to eighty BJ.

824
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:31,320
Speaker 5: What are your thoughts?

825
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 1: Absolutely?

826
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, you mentioned it only point five Expectacles allowed only

827
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 3: seven shots to Leicester nineteen for Leads really really dominant performance.

828
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 3: I think the main reason for that is because Marsh

829
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,320
Speaker 3: switched them to a four to two three one provided

830
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 3: a lot more defensive structure instead of this you know,

831
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 3: man pressing type system with a lot of openings for

832
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 3: the opponents.

833
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 1: The weird thing though is Leads.

834
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:57,239
Speaker 3: Is pressing numbers weren't really that successful, only twenty five

835
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 3: point six precious success rate, eleven points pass per defensive action,

836
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:03,879
Speaker 3: which you could say is a tad concerning considering they

837
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 3: had over one hundred and ninety pressures, which is actually

838
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 3: over the average under Bielsa. However, they're gonna have a

839
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 3: much easier time pressing against Aston Villa, who is third

840
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 3: to last in the Premier League in offensive passes per

841
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,359
Speaker 3: defensive action. And in that crazy three to three draw

842
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 3: that they had against Villa, I believe it was a

843
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago, Leeds did have a thirty.

844
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 1: Nine percent pressure success rate.

845
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 3: So if they're able to press at some type of

846
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 3: success rate at near that, it's going to be a

847
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 3: really really advantageous spot for them, especially at home. They're

848
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 3: also looks like they're gonna get Patrick Bamford back, which

849
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 3: would obviously be massive for their offense, and maybe even

850
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:42,759
Speaker 3: Calvin Phillips, which would just be so so huge for

851
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,720
Speaker 3: their defense to continue to trend in the right direction,

852
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,319
Speaker 3: especially playing in a four to two three one, which

853
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 3: is what he played at with the English national team

854
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 3: at the Euros and was maybe one of their best

855
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:57,280
Speaker 3: players of the entire tournament. Aston Villa, yes, they obviously

856
00:38:57,560 --> 00:39:00,360
Speaker 3: you know, smashed Southampton on Saturday, but it was the

857
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 3: first time under Stephen Gerrard that they've created over two

858
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 3: expected goals. There's the only averaging around one point one

859
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,799
Speaker 3: to five per match and with the improvements on the

860
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 3: Leads defense after one match, I think it's a really

861
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:11,799
Speaker 3: good spot for Leads. I don't think there should be

862
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,879
Speaker 3: slight underdogs here at home. So you know, the thing

863
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 3: with aston Villa is they're comfortably in the mid table.

864
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 3: They're nowhere near the relegation fight. Leads is desperate now.

865
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 3: They need this, they need a result and they need three.

866
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 1: Points for this one. So you know, Leeds Leads John A.

867
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:26,759
Speaker 1: Bett is plus one oh five. That's where I'm going.

868
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 1: I love I love the Peacocks.

869
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:32,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think there's always that balance embedding whether you

870
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:34,879
Speaker 5: were buying high on a team or are you trying

871
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:38,319
Speaker 5: to beat the market to actually where they're heading. And

872
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 5: that's that's what it'll be interesting with this Leeds team

873
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:42,880
Speaker 5: coming up, and like you said, this is all the

874
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 5: motivation in the world for one side, none of the

875
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 5: motivation for the other and a team that, as you

876
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 5: said too, just doesn't really punish defenses. Anthony, make your

877
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:54,880
Speaker 5: case for the Peacaps.

878
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:56,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean BJ mentioned it. These two teams did

879
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 4: just play a few weeks ago. I was on Leads,

880
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 4: then I'm on Leads again. I think the number is

881
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,319
Speaker 4: still wrong. Leads have been much better at home this year,

882
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:04,839
Speaker 4: and they've been away from home. They've just been pretty

883
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 4: unlucky at home when you look at the expected goals

884
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 4: versus actual goal numbers. Jesse Marsh continues at the tradition

885
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:13,880
Speaker 4: of his teams not playing up to their expected numbers.

886
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 4: This goes all the way back to Leipzig early in

887
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:18,400
Speaker 4: the year. The reason he was fired. Yes they had

888
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 4: defensive issues, Yes the players didn't like him, Yes they

889
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 4: had stylistic tactical issues, But the main thing they just

890
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 4: really underperformed they're expected goal numbers and they were much

891
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 4: lower in the table than their actual results expected them

892
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 4: to be. And they haven't really played any better Leipzig

893
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:35,760
Speaker 4: and they have shot at the table.

894
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 2: Wonder why.

895
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 4: I think Leads actually showed that when you get rid

896
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:42,720
Speaker 4: of that man marking system and you play a little

897
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 4: bit more controlled, that they can be a decent side.

898
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 4: I think it's important to not man mark against this

899
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 4: Villa team because if you go back and look at

900
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 4: the three goals Villa scored, two of them were direct counterattacks,

901
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 4: two of them were continual losing a man Jacob Ramsey

902
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 4: losing a man and then them getting completely ripped apart.

903
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:00,040
Speaker 4: I think they'll be more controlled, much more able to

904
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 4: resist these counters better at counter pressing Leads. You mentioned

905
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 4: the thirty nine percent press success rate. Took the stat

906
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:10,760
Speaker 4: right off my notes. Absolutely A major key was pressing

907
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 4: them and creating chances off of that and controlling the game,

908
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 4: and that was at Villa, So I think they're going

909
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 4: to be able to do the same thing here and

910
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 4: win this match. I think marsh Getz's first win I

911
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:21,919
Speaker 4: took them drawn o Bett plus one oh five.

912
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 2: Fine with the money line as well.

913
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 5: Wonderful, So all three of us on Leeds United against

914
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 5: the it's a a grouper on the Peacocks real quick.

915
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:33,120
Speaker 5: Let's just touch on Europa League. You guys can just

916
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 5: run down your cards in a minute or so. Bj

917
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 5: let's start with you.

918
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 3: What do you get west Ham plus half a goal

919
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 3: on the road against Sevilla Savilla.

920
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:42,439
Speaker 1: We talked about it a lot.

921
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 3: But they've just been really underperforming for quite a long

922
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 3: time since November twentieth, a little over a minus three

923
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:50,839
Speaker 3: expected goal differential in LA League. And so we can

924
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:53,760
Speaker 3: take a little bit of what they did against Dinamo

925
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 3: Zagreb because Dinamo Zagreb was in west Ham's group. West

926
00:41:57,640 --> 00:41:59,880
Speaker 3: Ham did dominate Zagreb in the first leg, and then

927
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 3: second line didn't really mean much. The two matches that

928
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:03,800
Speaker 3: Seville had against Zagreb.

929
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 1: I mean they were good, but now I wouldn't say.

930
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 3: They were the most impressive thing in the world. It's

931
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:10,800
Speaker 3: a good number here, especially when we're looking at expected

932
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 3: goal diffronial. West Hams is actually getting pretty close to

933
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:17,800
Speaker 3: what Sabia is and England is a better league than Spain,

934
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:20,279
Speaker 3: so I think you're getting a decent price. I have

935
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 3: the match projected pretty close to a pick them. So

936
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,239
Speaker 3: the Hammers plus half a goal at minus one twenty

937
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 3: five is where I'm going for one and then the

938
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 3: second one real quick. Braga, Monaco under two and a

939
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,879
Speaker 3: half goals at minus one twenty Monico best defense in

940
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 3: France only alowing around point eight non penalty expected goals

941
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:37,399
Speaker 3: for match.

942
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:40,879
Speaker 1: Braga very good defensive outfit in Portugal, allowing.

943
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 3: Under one expected goal for match. So going to be

944
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 3: a pretty Cagy type of affair.

945
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 1: And that's kind of what you.

946
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 3: Saw from Braga in their matches against Sheriff. They weren't

947
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:52,399
Speaker 3: that effective going forward on the counter and even really

948
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 3: holding a lot of possession against the Moldovan side. So

949
00:42:56,480 --> 00:42:59,320
Speaker 3: it's hard pressed to see how they're going to break down Monaco.

950
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 3: Under two and a half goals is where I'm going.

951
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:05,359
Speaker 3: In Monaco and Braga and Anthony. You want to tell

952
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 3: the people about real.

953
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 5: Batis I do.

954
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 4: I agree with bj on west Ham, I have them

955
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 4: even teams. I think England is better than Spain by

956
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,760
Speaker 4: quite a margin. I'm not the biggest west Ham believer,

957
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:19,799
Speaker 4: if you guys listen, but I do think Sevilla is

958
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 4: probably the most overrated second most overrated team in all

959
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:24,800
Speaker 4: of Europe right now. When you look at their numbers,

960
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:26,759
Speaker 4: there's just not a whole lot to like about them.

961
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 4: They're not creating shots at the same rate they always do.

962
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 4: They're crossing has not been great. West Ham's pretty good

963
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,359
Speaker 4: at defending crosses as well. It's a big key when

964
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:35,439
Speaker 4: you're playing Savilla. I think they get the point away

965
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 4: from home and then it's anybody's match when they go

966
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 4: back to London. Atalanta is minus one twenty two advance

967
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 4: against Leverkusin. I'm probably not going to play the money

968
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 4: line in the first leg, but I do think Atalanta's

969
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:48,320
Speaker 4: considerably better than Leverkusen and we'll go through there. A

970
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:50,280
Speaker 4: little bit of a concern with the man marking against

971
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:54,880
Speaker 4: Leverkusen in transition stylistically, but I think Atlanta controls large

972
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 4: portions of that match. And then again, I'm just going

973
00:43:57,120 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 4: to keep fitting Real batis and I'm going to take

974
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 4: Frankfurt plus half a goal on the road here. I'm

975
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 4: not I was hoping for so many different teams for

976
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 4: the teas to play here, but I'm okay with Frankfurt.

977
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 4: Frankfurt a little bit fortunate to not concede more than

978
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:15,280
Speaker 4: they have in the Bundesliga. But when you look at

979
00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:18,799
Speaker 4: Real in Spain, I mean, nobody's ever performing more than them,

980
00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 4: so I think regression continues to come for them. They

981
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 4: were very lucky to get bya zenate very controversial call

982
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 4: in stoppage time. They probably shouldn't have gone through. At

983
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 4: least they should have gone to extra time, and they

984
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 4: were not the better side in either of the two matches,

985
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:34,279
Speaker 4: so I'm going with irontrack frankfort plus a half a

986
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 4: goal as well.

987
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 5: Wonderful. Let's move on to our favorite bets for the

988
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 5: Champions League this week the first second length of the

989
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:43,280
Speaker 5: round of sixteen PJ.

990
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:46,279
Speaker 3: We'll start with you, yeah, Real Madrid PSG over three

991
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 3: goals at plus one p fifteen. Real Madrid's game plan

992
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 3: in the first leg was quite shocking and concerning to me.

993
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 3: They really tried to sit back and really see the

994
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 3: game out defensively and hit PSG on the counter, which

995
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 3: is great and that can work, but really sloppy and

996
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 3: transition offense.

997
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:03,279
Speaker 1: That'll change in this match. Since they're down a.

998
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:05,399
Speaker 3: Goal, they have to come out and play offenses, which

999
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:07,440
Speaker 3: is going to open the match up even more. And

1000
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 3: that's also going to be a problem for Real Madrid

1001
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:14,000
Speaker 3: defensively because no Casamiro, who is vital to their defensive transition,

1002
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:17,319
Speaker 3: and also know for Alan Mendi, who's also a very

1003
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:19,360
Speaker 3: big vital part of getting forward and helping out in

1004
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 3: the attack, and also defending on the right flank they're

1005
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 3: defending Messi, so that's also a problem.

1006
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 1: For Real Madrid.

1007
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 3: PSG created close to two point six expected goals in

1008
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 3: the first meeting Real Madrid, creating close to one point

1009
00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 3: eight expected goals per match in the most defensive league

1010
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 3: in Europe. So I think this match is going to

1011
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:38,320
Speaker 3: open to wide up. I've around three point three goals

1012
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 3: projected for it, so I like over three goals and plus.

1013
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:43,800
Speaker 5: One fifteen Anthony, you and I have our best bets

1014
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 5: in the same match, but they are a little different.

1015
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 5: For me. I like an all total a big price.

1016
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:52,280
Speaker 5: Salzburg and Bayern Munich over five and a half goals.

1017
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:55,520
Speaker 5: It's plus four to twenty five or nineteen percent implied

1018
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:59,439
Speaker 5: win probability. The Bayer defense has been struggling lately nine

1019
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:01,399
Speaker 5: goals allowed out in their last six matches, and their

1020
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 5: underlying metrics suggests that poor defensive form is legitimate. Then

1021
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 5: you enter Salzburg side that can score. They scored in

1022
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 5: six of seven of their Champions League matches thus far.

1023
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 5: Some of those matches include games against great defensive sides

1024
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 5: like Savilla and lil We know Byron could score it

1025
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 5: will and we know that this match it's one to

1026
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:22,879
Speaker 5: one going into the second leg. So if Byron goes ahead,

1027
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:24,399
Speaker 5: Salzburg is going to have to open up to get

1028
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 5: the TI in goal, and that should open the floodgates

1029
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:29,360
Speaker 5: at one end or the other. So I think that

1030
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 5: this game has goals written all over it. So I'm

1031
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:34,880
Speaker 5: going to chase a big price plus four to twenty

1032
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:37,960
Speaker 5: five on over five and a half goals in Salzburg

1033
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:40,840
Speaker 5: and Bayern Munich Anthony close it out, yea.

1034
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go RB Salzburg plus two and even money.

1035
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:46,439
Speaker 4: Byron's had some serious issues lately, and it really comes

1036
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 4: down to the fact that they have key injuries at

1037
00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 4: three positions that they are not very deep at center midfield.

1038
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 4: Leon Gartzka has not played in a while. Their expected

1039
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 4: goals numbers have taken a bit of a hit at

1040
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 4: both ends of the pitch since he's been gone.

1041
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:01,279
Speaker 2: Left back Alfonso Davey also out for this match.

1042
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:03,760
Speaker 4: They don't have great cover for him, and Manuel Nuyer,

1043
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:06,520
Speaker 4: the ever trusting goalie, also out for this match. They've

1044
00:47:06,560 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 4: rotated between a back three and a back four trying

1045
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 4: to control transitions. It didn't work against Salsburg in the

1046
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:14,359
Speaker 4: first match when they played a back three and had

1047
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 4: two attacking wing backs. It didn't work when they played

1048
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:20,319
Speaker 4: a back four against Bayer Leverkusen and conceded almost two

1049
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 4: expected goals, probably deserved to.

1050
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:25,840
Speaker 2: Really you could argue lose that match over the weekend.

1051
00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 4: And Byron the last six matches in all competitions, conceded

1052
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:32,280
Speaker 4: over eight expected goals. I just don't trust this defense

1053
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:34,439
Speaker 4: enough to lay the two. I'm happy to take two

1054
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 4: goals with Salsburg, who should be able to press defensively

1055
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 4: and stay in this game and score one goal to

1056
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:40,920
Speaker 4: really make this a competitive tie.

1057
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:42,920
Speaker 2: I do think Byron goes through, but.

1058
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:45,280
Speaker 4: I think it's going to be more competitive than most

1059
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 4: are expecting.

1060
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:49,439
Speaker 5: All Right, that wraps up another episode of Wonder Goal.

1061
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:53,239
Speaker 5: We will be back on Thursday morning to discuss the

1062
00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:56,960
Speaker 5: Premier League and the European Domestic League, but until then

1063
00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:58,400
Speaker 5: we wish you the best of luck on all your

1064
00:47:58,400 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 5: bets this week.

1065
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 1: Famous kill