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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power here

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube. Where

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Speaker 2: you can find us right now search Bloomberg Global News.

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Speaker 2: Keep the live feed up all day long. Brings you

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Speaker 2: right into the studios here in Washington and in New

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Speaker 2: York to see the action behind the microphone with great

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Speaker 2: hope in the air here on Friday, we found out

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Speaker 2: about it together on this program. Remember the late ad

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Speaker 2: to Joe Biden's schedule on Friday to talk about Middle

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Speaker 2: East policy, and he rolled out a new proposal for

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Speaker 2: a cease fire. Talked about the verdict too. But this

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Speaker 2: is big news, and on any other day it would

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Speaker 2: have been the lead story. It quickly became one over

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Speaker 2: the weekend, right six week pause in fighting, as we

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Speaker 2: heard hostages released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, an increase

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Speaker 2: in aid shipments. Fast forward to Monday, and not so

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Speaker 2: much the headlines on the terminal Israel pushes back against

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Speaker 2: Gaza cease fire outlined by Biden Netanyah, who says deal

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Speaker 2: would pause Gaza war, not end it. And so we

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Speaker 2: had to start the program with Ian Marlow, who specializes

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Speaker 2: in diplomacy from our National Security geopolitics team, Bloomberg Senior reporter,

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Speaker 2: It's great to see you. We were asking Friday, why

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Speaker 2: is Joe Biden rolling this out, this Israeli proposal as

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Speaker 2: it felt, and not Benjamin Netanyaho. Maybe now we know.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the answer is that Biden wants it

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Speaker 3: a little bit more than Netanyaho. I think this deal,

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Speaker 3: like the a previous version of a similar deal that

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Speaker 3: Biden announced before and never happened, is that it's just

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Speaker 3: getting back to the same conundrum we've faced since the beginning,

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Speaker 3: which is Israel wants the right to continue this war

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Speaker 3: and destroy as much of Hamas as it wants, and

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Speaker 3: Hamas doesn't want to give up the hostages, when Israel

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Speaker 3: standing right there saying they don't want to end the war.

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Speaker 3: So if they give up the hostages, they lose their

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Speaker 3: leverage and they're finished. And so that's just a central

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Speaker 3: conundrum that we keep coming back to, and I think

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Speaker 3: Biden pushed this out publicly said this is Israel's deal,

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Speaker 3: not ours, And we're faced with the reality that in

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Speaker 3: Israel this sort of deal is not popular with with

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Speaker 3: Netanyahu's government.

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Speaker 2: Does this speak as well to what's left of Hamas?

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Speaker 2: Is Israel convinced that there's enough Hamas left to fight?

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Speaker 2: I think we'd heard there were four of twenty four

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Speaker 2: brigades left or something, and they've been pounding them in Rafa.

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Speaker 2: We heard last week they need seven more months. What

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Speaker 2: is left of this organization?

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Speaker 3: I think the reality is that too much of it

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Speaker 3: is left in the sense that they've you know, a

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Speaker 3: lot of people have died, more than thirty six thousand,

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Speaker 3: and a lot of them have been civilians, not enough

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Speaker 3: of them have been Hamas fighters. And even while they're

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Speaker 3: focusing on Rafa at these kind of remaining intact battalions,

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Speaker 3: you see further north in Gaza, where Israel was fighting

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Speaker 3: earlier on during the war, Hamas is starting to reconstitute

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Speaker 3: itself in different parts and fighting is going up north again,

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Speaker 3: and so you have a situation where I mean, this

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Speaker 3: is pretty much exactly what the US warned Israel about

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Speaker 3: in the early days of the war. This is a hard,

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Speaker 3: you know, gorilla warfare type war, and you can't necessarily

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Speaker 3: militarily destroy an organization that you know has an ideology

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Speaker 3: and the rest of it. I mean, the US faced

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Speaker 3: this kind of stuff in Iraq and across the Middle

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Speaker 3: East for years.

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Speaker 2: So was there a half measure? Is there a temporary

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Speaker 2: cease fire that's agreed to maybe six weeks and we'll

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Speaker 2: see after that.

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Speaker 3: I think the US to be betting that they can

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Speaker 3: get both of the parties perhaps to phase one of

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Speaker 3: this deal, which is, you know, release Palaesinian prisoners, release

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Speaker 3: a few Israeli hostages, experiment with a temporary ceasefire that

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Speaker 3: allows humanitarian aid to move around Gaza. Yes, but then

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Speaker 3: you don't necessarily get to phase two, which is when

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Speaker 3: some of the thornier things start coming about, like a permanency's.

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Speaker 2: Fire, all the hostages.

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Speaker 3: Those are the things that Israel and Hamas disagree vehemently on.

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Speaker 3: But there's a chance maybe that Biden hopes he can

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Speaker 3: get these parties to phase one of the deal at

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Speaker 3: least and then see how it looks right, and then

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Speaker 3: maybe that will pull the parties along.

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Speaker 2: Well. We should note that this was not an accepted proposal.

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Speaker 2: Hamas is not. I mean, it's not like we would

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Speaker 2: have a deal without net Nyahu here, but they were

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Speaker 2: said to be reacting positively. Do you know anything more

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Speaker 2: about it?

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Speaker 3: We don't know anything more about it, But I think

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Speaker 3: there is some worry that, compared to the deal earlier

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Speaker 3: in May, Hamas may actually have lessons to take the

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Speaker 3: deal this time, in the sense that pressure is growing

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Speaker 3: on Israel over Rafa. There's the ICJ and ic C

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Speaker 3: cases against Israel, the global you know, the fear of

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Speaker 3: just total global isolation for Israel. The US Israel relationship

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Speaker 3: itself is looking a little bit rockier than it was

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Speaker 3: in the early months of the war. So if you're Hamas,

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Speaker 3: do you agree to a cease fire now on sort

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Speaker 3: of US and Israeli terms or do you sort of

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Speaker 3: keep pushing back to try and draw this out And

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Speaker 3: maybe if you're the leader of Hamas survived this at

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Speaker 3: least for the moment.

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Speaker 2: The Speaker of the House here in Washington, Mike Johnson,

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Speaker 2: is making good on the invitation to have Benjaminette, who

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Speaker 2: apparently come speak to either the House or a joint session.

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Speaker 2: I don't know where Chuck Schumer is going to fall

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Speaker 2: on that. Could you see that happening while this is

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Speaker 2: still up in the air.

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Speaker 4: I think so.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it speaks to the fact that the US

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Speaker 3: Israel relationship is crucially important. The US is the number

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Speaker 3: one defense partner for Israel, it's the number one diplomatic partner,

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Speaker 3: I think for Netanya who. I mean a lot of

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Speaker 3: people think that if this war ends Netna who is

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Speaker 3: toast politically at home in terms of the criminal cases

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Speaker 3: against him, if there's an election, you know, you know,

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Speaker 3: anger from israelis over what happened on October seventh while

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Speaker 3: it was his watch. He has a lot of incentive

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Speaker 3: to sort of keep the US on side and to

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Speaker 3: some degree fan the flames of criticism domestically in the

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Speaker 3: US against the Biden administration. So when the Biden administration

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Speaker 3: paused that bomb shipment earlier, Republicans reacted with fury here,

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Speaker 3: and I think it's in Netna whose interest to sort

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Speaker 3: of keep that alive. And he's played the US domestic

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Speaker 3: politics game, you know before in terms of you know,

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Speaker 3: with with the Obama administration and the rest of it,

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Speaker 3: so he's he's no stranger to this, and he's sort

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Speaker 3: of like the Teflon Prime Minister to some degree, survived

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Speaker 3: a lot and.

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Speaker 2: He knows what lover's the BLI in the US. Thanks

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Speaker 2: great to see you. Ian, Thank you so much working

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Speaker 2: through the weekend on this, but no breakthrough here at

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg in Washington. Ian Marlow, senior reporter covering diplomacy, which

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Speaker 2: we could use right now, and we add the voice

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Speaker 2: of a diplomat, a former diplomat. With that in mind,

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Speaker 2: Brett Bruin is back to talk to us the president

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Speaker 2: of the Global Situation Room here in the nation's Capitol. Brett,

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Speaker 2: it's great to see you. This seemed to emerge very

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Speaker 2: quickly on Friday, this idea of a new ceasefire proposal.

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Speaker 2: The President came out with this in a late scheduled

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Speaker 2: announcement at the White House, and then nothing. Did the

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Speaker 2: administration think it had something when it did not.

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Speaker 5: I think the administration Joe was trying to add pressure

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Speaker 5: Onto and Yahoo as well as some of those members

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Speaker 5: of his cabinet from the far right, and by going

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Speaker 5: public as he did in such a very significant in fashion,

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Speaker 5: it put the ball in Netan Yahou's court and said, Okay,

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Speaker 5: what are you going to do with it? Now? We've

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Speaker 5: heard over the last few days obviously some consternation from

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Speaker 5: those on the outer extremities of his coalition, But I

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Speaker 5: think the Biden administration is betting that they can continue

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Speaker 5: to pile on the pressure here and get Netan Yahoo,

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Speaker 5: get some of those cabinet members who are holdouts to

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Speaker 5: a place where they can agree to something.

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Speaker 6: Well.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting Netanyahu's office set on Friday it had authorized

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Speaker 2: the word, they used the text of the proposal, but

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Speaker 2: then we wake up Saturday and Israel's conditions for ending

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Speaker 2: the war have not changed. So is that Yahoo gas

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Speaker 2: lighting Joe Biden.

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Speaker 5: Look, this is always going to be something of a

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Speaker 5: slippery slope, and you are going to find in these

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Speaker 5: kind of negotiations on both sides, whether it's Hamas, whether

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Speaker 5: it's Israel changing conditions and last minute can I sneak

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Speaker 5: in one more thing? And yet at the same time,

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Speaker 5: you know, two conversations we're just having with Ian Joe.

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Speaker 5: The interesting piece that isn't being mentioned here is how

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Speaker 5: do you actually enforce some of these conditions? And this

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Speaker 5: goes back to something that I was saying in October,

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Speaker 5: which is I think the outcome here is some sort

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Speaker 5: of international force, whether it's the UN, whether or other

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Speaker 5: kinds of regional monitors. You put in place some conditions,

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Speaker 5: conditions which Netanyahu can tell those members of his cabinet.

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Speaker 5: Hamas is not going to be able to reconstitute its

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Speaker 5: military capacity, and I think that's what it's going to

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Speaker 5: take to get this thing over the line.

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Speaker 2: A report in Oxios today says the President is going

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Speaker 2: to be speaking with the Emir of Cutter today to

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Speaker 2: talk about Gaza. Does Joe Biden just flex his way

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Speaker 2: through the here, knowing that it's been a liability on

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Speaker 2: the campaign trail, and try to lead negotiations, try to

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Speaker 2: own the outcome of the standoff.

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Speaker 5: That's, if you will. The opportunity for the White House,

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Speaker 5: for the Biden campaign at this moment is if he

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Speaker 5: can become the peace maker, then perhaps he can bring

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Speaker 5: back into the fold some of those young voters, some

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Speaker 5: of those Arab Americans who have left him over the

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Speaker 5: course of the last eight months. And that's where I

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Speaker 5: think the White House is trying to position itself so

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Speaker 5: he not only has to get this thing over the line,

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Speaker 5: he has to be seen as the one who was

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Speaker 5: critical to making that happen, critical to getting some of

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Speaker 5: those concessions. And then Yah, who knows it, So he's

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Speaker 5: going to play hard to.

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Speaker 2: Get I need to ask you about our shifting policy

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Speaker 2: in Ukraine, Gret. But as far as this latest ceasefire

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Speaker 2: proposal goes in Israel, where's your gut on this? Does

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Speaker 2: something come from it even if a temporary cease fire

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Speaker 2: or did this really fall apart over the weekend?

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Speaker 5: I think what Ian was saying is true in that

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Speaker 5: we may not get the whole enchalada this time, but

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Speaker 5: we perhaps get something on the order of a mini

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Speaker 5: version of the ceasefire a few days weeks, as we've

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Speaker 5: had before. And the hope then is that that's going

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Speaker 5: to create some momentum so that we can get to

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Speaker 5: some of these longer term efforts, and they'll call it

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Speaker 5: a confidence building measure and perhaps it will take hold well.

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Speaker 2: We saw an important evolution in the administration's policy towards

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Speaker 2: Ukraine last week. We spent some time talking about it

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Speaker 2: Thursday and Friday. We actually had Urisoak from Ukraine's Defense

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Speaker 2: department with us earlier in the week, making the call

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Speaker 2: on the US to allow Ukraine to use US provided

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Speaker 2: weapons offensively against Russia. And sure enough there's a carve

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Speaker 2: out now for the area around Kharkiv. I wonder if

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Speaker 2: we're already seeing the benefits or at least Ukraine is

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Speaker 2: seeing the benefits of that shift, and if this might

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Speaker 2: be expanded to a wider area.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and in fact, just this morning, I believe one

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Speaker 5: of the first timars was fired by Ukraine into the

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Speaker 5: Belgerode region. And Joe, this is one of those pieces

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Speaker 5: which I just don't understand Biden's national security team's posture

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Speaker 5: on this. So for the last two and a half years,

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Speaker 5: it's been at every instance, no you can't do that,

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Speaker 5: No you can't do that, then maybe okay, fine, go ahead.

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Speaker 5: And you know, it's quite frankly lost valuable time, valuable resources.

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Speaker 5: And even with this decision, just as you characterize it,

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Speaker 5: it's only ostensibly good for the area Russian area around Parkiev.

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Speaker 5: Which again, do we think that that's the determining factor

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Speaker 5: whether or not Putin's going to escalate this thing?

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Speaker 2: These are great, great questions, but we've seen time and again, Brett,

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Speaker 2: and we've talked to you about all of them, or

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Speaker 2: it's guarded.

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Speaker 1: With a no.

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Speaker 2: Then it got to be a maybe, and then it

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Speaker 2: was somehow inevitable. And you wonder if we're having a

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Speaker 2: different conversation about this by November.

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Speaker 5: I think we will. And again it's the lack of

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Speaker 5: leadership on these critical crises that is concerning to me.

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Speaker 5: What is the plan going forward? I don't know, just

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Speaker 5: want Okay, we're adding a few more kilometers to the

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Speaker 5: range that the Ukrainians can fire into Russia. I think

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Speaker 5: we've got to figure out what does Kiev need to

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Speaker 5: win this thing, or at least to push Russia back

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Speaker 5: into a more defensive posture so that they are in

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Speaker 5: encroaching further and further into Ukrainian territory. That's where we

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Speaker 5: find ourselves right now, and I think Biden has to

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Speaker 5: put forward a more robust plan.

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Speaker 2: Well, do we see tides shifting in Ukraine's favor, because

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Speaker 2: a lot of folks still think that that month's long

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Speaker 2: delay on funding simply ended too late.

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Speaker 5: It was very damaging for Ukraine's defensive positions, and you

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Speaker 5: saw Russia take full advantage of it. But Joe, let's

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Speaker 5: not forget it was just announced today that Vice President

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Speaker 5: Kamala Harris will be going to this all important Ukraine

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Speaker 5: Peace Summit in Switzerland, and yet President Biden, who should

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Speaker 5: be there, is instead going to hang out with some

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Speaker 5: celebrity donors in Los Angeles, and you have to question

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Speaker 5: the optics of this.

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Speaker 7: Again.

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Speaker 5: I understand that it's very difficult to get Barack Obama

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Speaker 5: and George Clooney in the same room at the same time,

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Speaker 5: but I really think that Biden needs to be in Switzerland.

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Speaker 2: You could argue that that in itself would be an

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Speaker 2: active campaigning, being caught in the act of being commander

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Speaker 2: in chief, and I think that's considered priceless in this world. Brett,

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Speaker 2: it's great to see you don't be a stranger rep

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Speaker 2: Ruin doing great work at the Global Situation Room. And

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Speaker 2: if you're with us on YouTube, you see the only

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Speaker 2: situation room with windows here in the nation's capital. I'm

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Speaker 2: Joe Matthew and Washington. Brett's right, Kamala Harris announcing she

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Speaker 2: will represent the U at the Ukraine Summit in Switzerland

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Speaker 2: that's going to take place in lincern on June fifteenth.

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Speaker 2: We'll be talking more about it.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroid

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Speaker 1: Oro with the Bloomberg Business ad. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 8: Here in Washington, where we're tracking the money in the

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Speaker 8: aftermath of the verdict, the guilty verdict that came.

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Speaker 9: Down against Donald Trump last week.

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Speaker 8: As we've said, Joe, tens of millions of dollars raised

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Speaker 8: by the Trump campaign, but it actually has struggled down

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Speaker 8: to some congressional efforts as well. It seems that Republicans

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Speaker 8: as a whole have been able to make money off

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Speaker 8: of what many thought might just end up being a

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Speaker 8: bad news situation for Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Maybe not so much. Yeah, look, it always could be.

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Speaker 2: But we've been saying that now since the indictments first dropped,

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Speaker 2: that there could be a long term corrosive effect on

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Speaker 2: the Trump campaign. Until now, Hayley, it's largely been a

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Speaker 2: money maker. And if you want to look at polling,

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Speaker 2: you know what impact this might have on voters in November.

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Speaker 2: You can find a poll to fit your argument. There's

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Speaker 2: no consensus on that anywhere.

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Speaker 8: No, and a lot of it, of course, is going

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Speaker 8: to play out, probably closer to the election. Even some

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Speaker 8: famed polsters like Larry Sabadough, who we spoke with in

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Speaker 8: the aftermath of this sense last week, said you're not

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Speaker 8: going to figure out how all this shakes out for question.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, throw your poles away with the sentiment, right, Mick,

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Speaker 2: Mulvaney's back with us today. As you mentioned, it's been

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Speaker 2: a long time since we spoke with Nick with the

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Speaker 2: longest resume in Washington, former acting chief of Staff, the

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Speaker 2: Trump White House, founder Freedom Caucus. I could keep going, Mick.

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Speaker 2: It's great to see you, welcome back. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if you have a gut check on this, but it's

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Speaker 2: kind of amazing that we're in a world in which

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Speaker 2: a conviction would help a candidate, but it sure doesn't

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Speaker 2: seem to be hurting him.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 10: I think you guys have hit on all the right points.

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Speaker 10: But here's there's there's an underlying piece of data that

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Speaker 10: I think we should keep an eye out for. I

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Speaker 10: think Larry Sabado's right. You know, you folks are right,

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Speaker 10: there's money for into all sorts of candidates. How do

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Speaker 10: you make a negative too a positive like this. Here's

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Speaker 10: what I'll be looking at in the next thirty days

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Speaker 10: when the data is produced. Where is this money coming

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Speaker 10: from that Donald Trump and the other Republicans are pulling in. Listen,

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Speaker 10: it's a good news story for Trump if he somebody

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Speaker 10: that gave him twenty five dollars six months ago gave

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Speaker 10: him another twenty five dollars that If existing donors are

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Speaker 10: coming off the hip, that's good news and that's fantastic,

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Speaker 10: and that's sort of the top line message.

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Speaker 7: If, however, this money is coming from.

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Speaker 10: New donors, that is huge. That would be something I

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Speaker 10: think that people are overlooking at this point. It makes

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Speaker 10: a difference where the money is coming from. It's good

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Speaker 10: either way, don't get me wrong. But it's really, really,

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Speaker 10: really good if it's new donors, and it is a

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Speaker 10: tectonic shift. If some of this money is coming from

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Speaker 10: minority donors, first time minority donors. I've seen anecdotal evidence,

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Speaker 10: not data, yet, anecdotal evidence that this has been received

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Speaker 10: in some of the minority communities as a way now

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Speaker 10: that Donald Trump can empathize with how so some of

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Speaker 10: these folks might see the government they feel like they're

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Speaker 10: mistreated by the government for such a long time, and

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Speaker 10: now they empathize with Donald Trump, and he can empathize

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Speaker 10: with them.

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Speaker 7: Go back to the nineteen nineties.

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Speaker 10: And I know we make fun of Bill Clinton's line

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Speaker 10: about I feel your pain, but Donald Trump now has

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Speaker 10: some credibility with some minority communities that he didn't have before.

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Speaker 10: If that's translating into money and into votes, this is

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Speaker 10: a really, really big deal. Keep in mind, Joe Mitt

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Speaker 10: Romney got about four percent of the African American vote

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Speaker 10: in twenty twelve. Trump got about six percent in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 10: He got about twelve percent in twenty twenty before the conviction.

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Speaker 10: The numbers I saw were in the low twenties.

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Speaker 7: In the African American community.

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Speaker 10: That is a huge change, and it's one of the

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Speaker 10: reasons Trump who definitely lost votes because of this conviction.

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Speaker 10: He lost what we referred to as these white suburban

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Speaker 10: housewives in the Midwest.

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Speaker 7: There's no question.

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Speaker 10: But the reason you're not seeing him go down in

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Speaker 10: any of the real polling data is that he seems

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Speaker 10: to be making it up someplace else. That's what I

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Speaker 10: don't think folks are talking nearly enough about. That's the

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Speaker 10: data I'll be looking for.

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Speaker 8: Well, and I wonder, Mick, how the data may change

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Speaker 8: how everything you just said maybe even further fueled by

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Speaker 8: potentially actual incarceration of Donald Trump. Sentencing, of course, is

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Speaker 8: on July eleventh. He was on Fox over the weekend

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Speaker 8: suggesting that he may end up going to prison. He

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Speaker 8: doesn't think the public would stand for it, but he

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Speaker 8: didn't necessarily say he himself is super opposed to going

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Speaker 8: Is that bravado or do you think that Donald Trump

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Speaker 8: may actually be willing to spend time behind bars if

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Speaker 8: it helps him politically.

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Speaker 10: The answer the second question is yes, if it helps

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Speaker 10: him politically. I think Look, if you're the Trump team

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Speaker 10: and maybe this caught you by surprise, maybe you didn't

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Speaker 10: think you're going to raise fifty.

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Speaker 7: Million dollars over a weekend from a conviction.

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Speaker 10: You're having a rational discussion saying, you know, boss, you

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Speaker 10: go to jail, we may raise one hundred million dollars.

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Speaker 10: I mean, you may win the presidency if you go

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Speaker 10: to jail. I'm not saying he wants to go to jail.

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Speaker 10: I'm not saying they're trying to figure out a way

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Speaker 10: to get him thrown in jail. I think there's sort

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Speaker 10: of all options around the table at this point. Here's

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Speaker 10: the conversation they're having. How do we take whatever happens

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Speaker 10: turn it into a positive for the campaign. If we

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Speaker 10: get probation, that's fine. How do we make that a positive.

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Speaker 10: If he goes to jail, how do we make that

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Speaker 10: a positive?

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Speaker 7: Keimon Wan, he gets.

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Speaker 10: Probation, they might, you know, put him under house arrest,

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Speaker 10: they might not let him leave his home, and they

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Speaker 10: might be able to turn that.

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Speaker 7: Into a positive.

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Speaker 10: We are in the you know, the bizarro world of

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Speaker 10: now having a leading candidate convicted of a crime.

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Speaker 7: We have no precedent for any of this.

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Speaker 10: What we do know is this is that the response

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Speaker 10: over the course of the last seventy two hours has

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Speaker 10: been huge in Donald.

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Speaker 7: Trump's favor in terms of the money. And I don't

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Speaker 7: think anybody saw that coming.

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Speaker 2: Part of the message is resonating here in Washington, Nick,

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Speaker 2: we were talking about the defund New York movement by

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Speaker 2: Marjorie Taylor Green would actually block the state from receiving

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Speaker 2: federal funds from you know, not just for the judiciary,

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Speaker 2: but education and housing. Wants to defund Jack Smith when

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Speaker 2: it comes to New York, though, do Republicans need to

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Speaker 2: be careful about demonizing a state that's already hard enough

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Speaker 2: to re elect Republicans.

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Speaker 10: You know, Joe, when I was young man, I wanted

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Speaker 10: to be six foot two and date Paulinapoort's COVID. None

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Speaker 10: of those things happened, and none of this wrap that

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Speaker 10: Marjorie Taylor Dreen is talking about is going to happen.

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Speaker 10: I don't But to your point, I don't think demonizing

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Speaker 10: them is gonna hurt. Keep in mind, they expected to

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Speaker 10: lose New York anyway, they expect to lose New Jersey.

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Speaker 10: I know they're saying positive things about the chances they

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Speaker 10: have there. And I will tell you that back in

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Speaker 10: early twenty twenty, before COVID really set in, So this

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Speaker 10: is January now of twenty twenty, I still in the

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Speaker 10: White House, and we expected Bernie Sanders to be the Democrat,

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Speaker 10: the Democrat nominee. We did have data that said that

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Speaker 10: Trump had a really good chance to win New York

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Speaker 10: and New Jersey, especially New Jersey.

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Speaker 7: So that's not that far outside of reality.

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Speaker 10: I don't think it's gonna happen, but I don't think

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Speaker 10: that you know, saying bad things about New York is

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Speaker 10: really going to hurt them face. If you're voting for

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Speaker 10: Donald Trump and you live in New York, you might

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Speaker 10: be upset with New York as well. So maybe that's

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Speaker 10: that's falling on fertile soil.

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Speaker 8: Well, I guess you could ask this question not just

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Speaker 8: about the state of New York, but broadly make Republicans

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Speaker 8: who seem to be tying their fates to being outraged

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Speaker 8: on behalf of Donald Trump, to this idea that his

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Speaker 8: conviction is proof that the Justice Department is being weaponized,

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Speaker 8: that all of this is unfair. In doing so, is

439
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 8: it ultimately going to prove more advantageous to them or

440
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 8: potentially come back to bite them.

441
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 7: Yeah, Kyley, I'm going to answer that.

442
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 10: I'm not dodging the question, and I'm really and you

443
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 10: know me, I'm not sort of towing the party line

444
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 10: because I don't do that. But maybe they just really

445
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,920
Speaker 10: believe it. And I know we're so sort of jaded

446
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,919
Speaker 10: about politicians that we sort of we don't that's not

447
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 10: our natural sort of default setting. But maybe the Republicans

448
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 10: really feel like this was unfair. They really feel like

449
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 10: Donald Trump was targeted here. I believe that I really do.

450
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 10: And you folks know I've been critical of the president

451
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 10: of the past when I thought he deserved to be criticized.

452
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 7: But there's maybe the just.

453
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 10: A sort of a reaction here says this is wrong,

454
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,439
Speaker 10: that no other human being has ever been charged with this,

455
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 10: that no other DA wanted to bring this. You know,

456
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 10: the Federal Elections Committee could have charged him with this,

457
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 10: a Department of Justice could have charged him with this.

458
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 10: The previous DA in Manhattan could have charged with this.

459
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:19,159
Speaker 10: But Alvin Bragg ran for office saying elect me, and

460
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 10: I'll go get Donald Trump. And when he didn't do

461
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 10: that right away, some of his staff that really hated

462
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 10: Donald Trump started quitting.

463
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 7: So he brought it.

464
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 10: Maybe the facts here just lend themselves to a conclusion

465
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 10: that this is an unfair proceeding, and maybe even if

466
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 10: you're a Republican who doesn't like Donald Trump, maybe you

467
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 10: come to his defense on this one.

468
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 7: I think I hear what you're saying, but go ahead.

469
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,879
Speaker 8: Well, and I hear what you're saying and questioning the motive.

470
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,239
Speaker 8: But the fact is that it wasn't Alvin Bragg that

471
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 8: convicted Trump. It was a jury of twelve Americans who

472
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 8: were so decided the defense decided were worthy of sitting

473
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 8: on this jury. Does all of that though, feeding into

474
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 8: that narrative what you were just saying not undermine faith

475
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 8: in an American democratic institution, which is our judicial system.

476
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 10: I certainly see that, and listen, I'm a conservative of

477
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 10: a small see in my default setting is to defend

478
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 10: the institutions.

479
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 7: I get it.

480
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 10: But I also used to practice law, and I know

481
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 10: that if I if I get bad jury instructions out

482
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,120
Speaker 10: of the judge, especially in a state where that where

483
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 10: the jury cannot take the jury instructions back into the

484
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 10: room that read the injury instructions, but they don't get

485
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 10: to keep them.

486
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:27,360
Speaker 7: It's different. In other states.

487
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 10: You get bad jury instructions a lot of times you

488
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,919
Speaker 10: just can't win, and that a lot of appeals, by

489
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 10: the way, turn on the jury instructions that go to

490
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 10: go to the jury a jurk. Listen, I have faith

491
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,640
Speaker 10: that the jury did their you know, took their job seriously.

492
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 10: I really do believe that, you know, and that's based

493
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 10: on sort of some of the empirical evidence we got

494
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 10: talking to the folks who had been through the process,

495
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 10: that seems like these folks really were going to take

496
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,400
Speaker 10: their job seriously, and most juries do that, by the way,

497
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,159
Speaker 10: the overwhelming number of juries do that. But if you

498
00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 10: get a bad jury instruction, for example, that doesn't clarify

499
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 10: what that other crime has to be. Keep in mind,

500
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 10: this was not a deal about There's not a charge

501
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 10: about the hush money payments. It was the accounting for

502
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 10: the hush money payments and how that was in the

503
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 10: furtherance of another crime. And if the jury instruction doesn't

504
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,159
Speaker 10: give evidence about the other or give any direction on

505
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,199
Speaker 10: the other crime, I mean, maybe the jury felt like

506
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 10: they had no choice but to convince given the instructions

507
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,199
Speaker 10: they received. I get it, and look, I'm with you.

508
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 10: I wanted to defend the institutions, and usually I'm the

509
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 10: person who does that. But I also understand how the

510
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 10: legal system works.

511
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 7: If you get bad jury instructions.

512
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 10: From a bad judge, you can get some bad decisions.

513
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 10: That's why appeals take place and why oftentimes they are

514
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 10: those appeals are successful.

515
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 2: Last one for you, Mick Mulvaney. Let's say he's re elected.

516
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:53,439
Speaker 2: There are questions about the White House's relationship with the

517
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 2: Federal Reserve. Of course, this White House claims to not

518
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 2: have one. It's an independent FED. They turn every question

519
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 2: we asked them to the Fed. But there's a new

520
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey out today. This is where

521
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:08,719
Speaker 2: we actually go and talk to folks in the markets.

522
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 2: Forty four percent believe they expect Donald Trump to seek

523
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 2: to politicize the FED. A quarter believe that the ten

524
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 2: year would rise more than twenty five basis points immediately.

525
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 2: Do you see either being true. We've heard reports that

526
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 2: some are urging Donald Trump to become directly involved in

527
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 2: interest rate decisions.

528
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 7: Yeah, look, go back to two thousand.

529
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 10: I don't know what it was, Joe twelve thirteen, fourteen fifteen,

530
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 10: when I was on the House Financial Services Committee, long

531
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 10: before Donald Trump came down the escalator at Trump Tower

532
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 10: announced he was running for president. So when we were

533
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 10: interviewing Janet Yelling on a regular basis in the House

534
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 10: Financial Services Committee, and we were worried about her independence

535
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 10: at that time, that she was keeping easy money too

536
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 10: long to benefit the Obama administration, that she wasn't weighing

537
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:01,439
Speaker 10: in on the fiscal deficits that we were running, that

538
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:05,199
Speaker 10: they were politicized at that point. So that's not a

539
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 10: new discussion you know, Donald Trump gets the short end

540
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 10: of the stick on that because he'll, you know, because

541
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 10: of the way he speaks, because of the hyperbole he uses.

542
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 10: But I listen, I'm worried about the defense of the

543
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 10: FED generally, so long before Donald Trump was on the scene.

544
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 8: All right, Mick mulvaney, former acting White House Chief of

545
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 8: Staff too, Donald Trump, former congressman from South Carolina. The

546
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 8: resume list goes on. Great to have you back on

547
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 8: the program. We appreciate your time. We want to turn

548
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 8: now though to geopolitics, because last week we saw a

549
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 8: surprise speech from President Biden outlining a three phase plan

550
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 8: for a ceasefire between Israel and Amas. Phase one was temporary,

551
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 8: Phase two was permanent. Phase three was reconstruction. Israel Today

552
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,919
Speaker 8: though is basically saying not so fast. And it's on

553
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 8: this note we want to bring in now Ramsey, I'll

554
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 8: Ricott kb He is Bloomberg Senior editor for International Economics

555
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 8: and Security. So Ramsey, it seems that there is a

556
00:27:56,520 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 8: disconnect between what President Biden says and what President Prime

557
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 8: Minister Benjamin net Nahu is saying.

558
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, what happened.

559
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 11: So on Friday, you're right, Biden came out with a big,

560
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,159
Speaker 11: big proposal, this three part plan, and said, you know,

561
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 11: this deal is on the table, everyone needs to take it.

562
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 11: We should be close.

563
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 4: Heard a lot of.

564
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:17,199
Speaker 11: Positive signs almost immediately, there was some coolness out of Israel,

565
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 11: and yet Yahu today had something more on the record,

566
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 11: more direct saying this isn't really what we agreed to.

567
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 11: There needs to be more clarity on this permanent there

568
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 11: won't be any permanency's fire, so there's a clarity on

569
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 11: Hamas's abilities and capabilities and ending those. So that seems

570
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 11: to be something they haven't really talked about. As you mentioned,

571
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 11: there's the phase one and there's a phase two.

572
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 4: There's this little part.

573
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 11: In between in terms of dealing with what's the future

574
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 11: of Hamas that they didn't really touch on, and that

575
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 11: Yahu Day seems to be make it very clear that

576
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 11: there will be no Hamas in the future as this

577
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 11: goes forward. How they deal with that is still still

578
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 11: not very clear to us. Try to dig down to it,

579
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 11: because essentially what this means is that there'll be some

580
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 11: sort of agreement to pause the fighting, get hostages out,

581
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 11: maybe really some pilestinion prisoners, but who they're going to

582
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 11: negotiate after that. If Hamas is then completely off the table,

583
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 11: is unclear how you move into phase two and get

584
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 11: a more enduring ceasefire.

585
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 2: How far did Joe Biden get over his skis on

586
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 2: this because Benjaminett, yeah, who's office said they authorized the

587
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,719
Speaker 2: text of this on Friday, and then on Saturday, we're

588
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 2: on a different page.

589
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 11: I think what seems to be the sticking point is

590
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 11: this issue over the capabilities, and there's really no definition

591
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:24,959
Speaker 11: of what that is. Biden seemed to try to make

592
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 11: it clear on Friday, they said, he said Hamas can

593
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 11: no longer repeat October seventh, they don't have the capbilities

594
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 11: to do that kind of attack anymore. And what it

595
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 11: sounds like from Israel saying that's not the point. There

596
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 11: can be no Hamas involved, no capability to any attack.

597
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 11: So it seems that that they brought this to Hamas

598
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 11: on Thursday, and it seemed from what our understanding is

599
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,960
Speaker 11: that what Biden was going to say went to Israel

600
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 11: on quite short notice on Friday. So doesn't seem like

601
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 11: there was any any clarity on what this means.

602
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 2: We still allow for a potential, at least temporary ceasefire

603
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 2: to come for this.

604
00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 11: It seems that that that then, yeah, was opened. He

605
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 11: said there could be a hostilities yeah, whatever the specific.

606
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 2: As so maybe there's a partial.

607
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 11: There is there is a potential to have a pause

608
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 11: release hostages, but in terms of a permanency's fire, there's

609
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 11: there's nothing, and you were getting close.

610
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 7: To that yet.

611
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 2: Stay close with us on this obviously, it's something that

612
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 2: could be moving throughout the week, and we'd love to

613
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 2: have you back, Ramsey. I'll recobby with us from our

614
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 2: national security team and international economics team here in Washington,

615
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 2: d C. With the smartest minds in the business, and

616
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 2: more to follow. We'll assemble our panel next. Rick and

617
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 2: Genie are with us on this Monday edition of Balance

618
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 2: of Power alongside Kaylee Lines. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

619
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

620
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple.

621
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 1: Car Play and then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app.

622
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

623
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

624
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 9: Welcome back to Balance of Power.

625
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 8: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, where

626
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 8: we're still feeling the ripple effects of last week's conviction

627
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 8: a former president Donald Trump. He of course, found guilty

628
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 8: of thirty four felony counts of falsifying business records. And

629
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 8: by and large, what we have seen from those inside

630
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 8: the Republican Party is support of the former president of

631
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 8: the notion that this entire thing was rigged against him.

632
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 8: But not everyone is singing the same tune on that,

633
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 8: specifically Senate candidate and former governor of Maryland Larry Hogan,

634
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 8: who is going to try his best to flip a

635
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 8: blue Senate seat red. He has to tread carefully here,

636
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 8: but not everybody seems to think he's doing so correctly,

637
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 8: including the co chair of the RNC and daughter in

638
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 8: law of the aforementioned Donald Trump, Laura Trump, who had

639
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 8: this to say about him this weekend.

640
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 6: I'll tell you one thing, I don't support what he

641
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 6: just said there. I think it's ridiculous, and I think

642
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 6: anybody who's not speaking up in the face of really

643
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 6: something that should never again have seen the light of day,

644
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 6: a trial that would never have been brought against any

645
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 6: other person, aside from Donnales supporter, the respect of anyone, well,

646
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 6: you he doesn't deserve to respect of anyone in the

647
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 6: Republican Party at this point, which.

648
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 2: She's referring to, there is a tweet. This is coming

649
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 2: off the verdict. All he said was, quote, respect the

650
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 2: verdict and the legal process. This gets back to your

651
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 2: question to Mick mulvaney, are we respecting the institution here?

652
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 2: The process of the jury? He didn't say shame on

653
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 2: Donald Trump or anything that criticized him. So you wonder

654
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 2: exactly where the co chair of the Republican National Committee

655
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 2: is going here. Larry Hogan represents something that Republican Party

656
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 2: hasn't had in a generation, a chance to flip Maryland red.

657
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 2: And he might need his own path to do so, right.

658
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 8: And it's not just flipping Maryland red that is at

659
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 8: stake here, It could also beat.

660
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 9: The jury control of the United States Senate.

661
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 2: Yes, so paging the NRSC and our panel. Rick Davis

662
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 2: and Genie Shanzino are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors here

663
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 2: for their take on this. Rick, you know what it's

664
00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 2: like to help run the Republican Nation Committee when you

665
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 2: have a candidate like this, a Republican named Larry Hogan,

666
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 2: very popular in his state. He's kind of a unicorn there.

667
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 2: He could actually make this work. One of the world

668
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 2: is the party doing when the NRSC and of course

669
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 2: Republicans on Capitol Hill are praying for a miracle.

670
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 12: Yeah, it's not like the RNC is going to do

671
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 12: anything to positively affect an outcome in the state of Maryland.

672
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 12: And so why can't you just leave it up to

673
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 12: Larry Hogan. He's got his hands full. He's got a

674
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 12: lot of very conservative Republicans on Eastern Shore who are

675
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 12: Trump supporters, so.

676
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 7: He's got to manage it.

677
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 12: And as you point out, he didn't take a shot

678
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 12: at Donald Trump. He just wants to make sure people

679
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 12: understand he's reaffirming the institution of.

680
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 1: Our legal system.

681
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 12: Hard to argue that. And I guarantee you there are

682
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 12: forty nine Republican Senators wringing their hands right now, going,

683
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 12: wait a minute, this is our chance. He is the

684
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 12: fifty first vote. There's no guarantee that we pick anybody

685
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 12: else up. And so I don't know. I mean, it's

686
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 12: it's the problem with having family members running an R

687
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 12: and C whose job it is to elect Republicans without

688
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 12: having to put too much of a lipnus test on them.

689
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 8: Well, of course, it's not just the seat in Maryland

690
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 8: that will ultimately could be decisive and determining whether or

691
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 8: not Republicans can regain control of the United States Senate. Genie,

692
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 8: There's a number of other vulnerable Democrats who Republicans are

693
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 8: vying to oust, including in Montana, where Tim Shechee, next

694
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 8: Navy seal, is trying to oust the incumbent Democrat John

695
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 8: Tester and is becoming the first Republican to take advantage

696
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 8: of Trump's conviction and spin it into a campaign ad.

697
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 8: The ad says, in part, they want to throw Trump

698
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 8: in jail, trying to rob Americans of their choice in

699
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 8: the election, and John Tester is standing right by their side.

700
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 8: Are these already vulnerable Democrats more vulnerable, Genie, as a

701
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:50,720
Speaker 8: result of this verdict?

702
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 13: You know, I don't think so, but of course they

703
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 13: are testing that in Montana. Now I suspect we see

704
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 13: something similar in a place like Ohio. You know, the

705
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 13: reality is, we don't know how this is going to play.

706
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 13: But I am very suspicious of polls in the aftermath

707
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 13: of the conviction, because you know, the reality is, Donald

708
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 13: Trump has gone down in the polls before and bounced

709
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 13: right back up. He did that after January sixth. He's

710
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 13: done it many other times. And I think when it

711
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 13: comes to an election this close that's going to be

712
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:31,280
Speaker 13: decided in six states by you know, several thousand voters,

713
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 13: the reality is going to be we won't know until October,

714
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 13: and whoever the spotlight is on there is going to

715
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 13: be on the losing side of this, whether it's Joe

716
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 13: Biden or Donald Trump. So I'm not sure that this

717
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 13: is going to matter much as it pertains to the

718
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 13: Senate seat in Montana, but we do see it being

719
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 13: tested out. And of course, if these are very close elections,

720
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 13: if they can make the case that this was politically

721
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 13: motivated and keep people home from supporting Tester or turn

722
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,839
Speaker 13: them to a third parton a third party or somewhere else,

723
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 13: it could have an impact. But I just don't think

724
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 13: we know yet.

725
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 2: Well I'll tell you what, Genie, there's more in this

726
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 2: ad to just referring to state sponsored political persecution. The

727
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 2: She campaign says John Tester has advocated for violence against

728
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 2: Donald Trump, and they've got an old clip of him

729
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 2: on MSNBC saying somebody needs to punch Donald Trump in

730
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 2: the face. It's messages like these that send in many

731
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 2: cases voters back home to say, you know what, one

732
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:34,800
Speaker 2: side's as bad as the other, and in this case,

733
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 2: that doesn't play well for John Tester. How worried are

734
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:38,280
Speaker 2: you about this approach?

735
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,240
Speaker 13: Well, well, to me, sorry, Rick.

736
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 2: Go ahead, no, go ahead, Genioes just want the Democrat

737
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 2: view on that, because it's Tester's seat we're talking about.

738
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 13: Yeah, you know, to me, I think they are trying

739
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:55,879
Speaker 13: to make something out of that. I don't think Tester

740
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 13: should have said that. I think most people will think

741
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 13: that that is a rhetorical state. But it is not

742
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:03,879
Speaker 13: acceptable either. But you know, the reality as I think

743
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 13: incumbents have enormous advantage about ninety percent advantage, you know,

744
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 13: ninety percent rather incumbency rate in our Senate, and so

745
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 13: you know, I'm not sure that this is going to

746
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 13: work effectively because one thing all of our representatives do

747
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 13: well in Washington is constituent service. So I think more

748
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 13: it's about what he's done at the state or not done.

749
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 13: So that's where I come out on that. But I

750
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 13: think the statement was unforgivable really, but he made it

751
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:30,919
Speaker 13: and they put it in there.

752
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 8: Okay, So that's one Democratic senator in John Tester, I

753
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 8: want to talk about another Democrat, at least for now,

754
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,360
Speaker 8: Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey, who, of course is

755
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 8: in the middle of a trial of his own related

756
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 8: to bribery charges. Reports today Rick Or that Bob Menendez

757
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 8: is going to file to run for reelection as an independent, again,

758
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 8: keeping in mind he is in the throes of an

759
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 8: active criminal trial.

760
00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 9: What do you make of this.

761
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 12: Desperation? I think that you know, he's a guy who

762
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 12: obviously is seeing a relatively stellar Senate career go down

763
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 12: the drains, uh, maybe even potentially uh, you know, future

764
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:13,720
Speaker 12: legal problems for himself and his wife.

765
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 4: So uh, the reality is that you.

766
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 12: Really wonder what he is thinking. You know, if he

767
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 12: gets on the independent ballot and there's no guarantee of

768
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 12: that happening, you know, he could drain away votes from

769
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:32,760
Speaker 12: whatever Democrat is going to challenge that seat and and

770
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 12: and potentially handed over to Republicans. So it's a really

771
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:40,719
Speaker 12: outside chance right now for Republicans to pick that seat up.

772
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 12: And I would say too, uh, in virtually every single

773
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 12: one of our Senate races outside of Maryland, we're we're

774
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 12: we're behind. And so there's there's there's We'll look for

775
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 12: Republican seats anywhere we can find them in the Senate.

776
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 12: But but I think Menendez is certainly sounding like he's

777
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:00,280
Speaker 12: conspiring to help us with one.

778
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 2: Well, the Senate's going to be busy coming up here,

779
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 2: it seems, with some pushback from Republican members, namely Mike Lee,

780
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 2: who's upset enough about the Trump verdict that he's promising

781
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,440
Speaker 2: to roadblock anything that comes from the Biden White House,

782
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 2: including judicial nominations. Genie, how does Chuck Schumer respond to

783
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:23,320
Speaker 2: this knowing that we are, in fact in an election

784
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,319
Speaker 2: season and frankly, the work appears to be done for

785
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 2: this Congress with some very few exceptions.

786
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 13: Yeah, he thinks as lucky stars that there's no must

787
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 13: pass bills at the moment. This could very well slow

788
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 13: them down, and I think the most he can do

789
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 13: is push forward to votes of cloture. There's going to

790
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 13: be debate, and he could tell the other senators, hey,

791
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 13: we're here when we shouldn't be because of people like

792
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 13: Mike Lee. Mike Lee won't care. He likes nothing more

793
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 13: than to stop progress going forward in terms of getting

794
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 13: these nominees out. To make his point, about Donald Trump's

795
00:39:57,160 --> 00:40:01,320
Speaker 13: what he sees as unfortunate political execution in Manhattan.

796
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:04,719
Speaker 8: Well, and of course, any one senator does have the

797
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,800
Speaker 8: ability to be disruptive in a body that requires unanimous

798
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 8: consent to do anything quickly. Members of the House rip

799
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 8: don't necessarily have that same kind of power, though certainly

800
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 8: they can make a lot of noise, including say Congressman

801
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:18,759
Speaker 8: Marjorie Taylor Green, who not only wants special counsels now

802
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 8: defunded like Jack Smith, but potentially the entire state of

803
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 8: New York being defunded or at least blocks from receiving

804
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 8: federal funding. If you're Mike Johnson, the House Speaker, knowing

805
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 8: that effort is not going to go anywhere in a

806
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 8: Senate that is actually controlled or helmed by a majority

807
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:36,320
Speaker 8: leader who is from the state of New York, do

808
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 8: you give that the time of day or does that

809
00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:39,760
Speaker 8: help you with messaging?

810
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 5: Now?

811
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 12: You don't give it the time of day. I mean, frankly,

812
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 12: we're giving her more attention than Speaker Johnson's going to

813
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 12: for the balance of this term. She's already broken her

814
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 12: pick at the Speaker's office. None of the leadership takers

815
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 12: seriously these antics that she's using to try and get

816
00:40:56,640 --> 00:41:00,839
Speaker 12: attention are just performative, and this speaker is looking for

817
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 12: serious things that he can do on the border where

818
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 12: Republicans feel like they have an advantage that they can

819
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 12: press that can actually get them some votes. And frankly,

820
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 12: her antics or just a distraction from trying to push

821
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 12: forward legitimate campaign themes that could find votes for November.

822
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 12: So it's very difficult for the leadership to put up

823
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 12: with her, and yet she is undaunted by her loneliness

824
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 12: in the caucus.

825
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:30,320
Speaker 9: All right, on that note, we will leave it.

826
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:33,439
Speaker 8: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzy of Bloomberg Politics contributors, thank

827
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 8: you so much as always for joining us.

828
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

829
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

830
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 1: royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

831
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

832
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

833
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 2: Everyone survived the weekend and actually had a bit of

834
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 2: time to think about Cayley. I think the aftermath of

835
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:05,440
Speaker 2: the verdict because so many folks were caught not by surprise,

836
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:08,399
Speaker 2: but maybe off guard at the end of last week

837
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 2: with what we learned, thirty four counts guilty and now

838
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 2: fifty two million dollars richer if you're Donald Trump.

839
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,840
Speaker 8: Yeah, in the immediate aftermath, it seems that this is

840
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 8: working out fairly well for the former president, or at

841
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 8: least for his campaign. But really we're going to find

842
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 8: out more on July eleventh, when he's actually sentenced on

843
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 8: all these different counts. And that is something that he

844
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 8: was talking about or was asked about on Fox News

845
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 8: over this weekend, including the potential for prison time.

846
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 9: Take a listen.

847
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:38,800
Speaker 2: The judge could decide to say, hey, house arrest or

848
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 2: even jail.

849
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:40,320
Speaker 5: It couldn't face it.

850
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 7: I'm okay with it.

851
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 14: I saw one of my lawyers he had the day

852
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 14: on television saying, oh, no, you don't want to do that.

853
00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 14: To the press, I said, don't you know, beg for anything?

854
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:52,920
Speaker 14: You just the way that so that could happen. I

855
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:54,920
Speaker 14: don't know that the public would stand it, you know,

856
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 14: I don't. I'm not sure the public would stand for it.

857
00:42:57,080 --> 00:42:58,800
Speaker 14: At a certain point. There's a breaking point.

858
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 9: Former President Trump over at this weekend.

859
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 2: Yes, so he's been thinking about it. Whether this is

860
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 2: a possibility or not. We were asking a lot of

861
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 2: people last week about what the chances are. Nick Ackerman,

862
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 2: the former Watergate prosecutor, says they're probably building the presidential

863
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 2: suite at Rikers right now, but a lot of folks

864
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 2: think home detention, if anything, might be more likely. I

865
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:22,239
Speaker 2: wonder what Danny Karen thinks. Yeah, come to see us

866
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 2: in person here at the tables.

867
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 9: Today, one more opinion.

868
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:26,359
Speaker 8: Danny Karen is the founder and owner of Karen Law

869
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 8: and a professor at both Michigan and Ohio State law schools.

870
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:32,840
Speaker 9: Great to see you here in our Washing Basiness studio.

871
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 8: I wonder what your opinion is right now about the

872
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 8: likelihood that Trump will spend time behind bars and how

873
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 8: that potentially could change between now and July eleventh. How

874
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 8: does his behavior over the course of the next next

875
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 8: several weeks potentially influence the sentence to ultimately received.

876
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:51,279
Speaker 15: Well, I think it's unlikely he's going to do time

877
00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 15: in jail. Why because it's kind of a low grade offense.

878
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 15: The judge is going to look at such things when

879
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 15: determining the sentence. As his age, he's kind of old priors,

880
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:04,839
Speaker 15: he has none Whether this was a violent crime. It

881
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:09,320
Speaker 15: wasn't those militat in favor of probation not prison. That said,

882
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 15: it's Judge Marshawn who exclusively is in charge of deciding

883
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,400
Speaker 15: a sentence. So the last thing Trump wants to do

884
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:19,279
Speaker 15: is irritate him, is upset him, is you know, get

885
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:21,919
Speaker 15: all over him in these press conferences, including the one

886
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 15: that he gave a Trump Tower immediately after the scent

887
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 15: the a verdict, which boy rule number one. And they

888
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 15: don't teach you this in law school, but you'll learn

889
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 15: it in life. You know, don't get on top of

890
00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:35,359
Speaker 15: the guy and who's who's who decides your sentence. It's

891
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 15: a terrible, terrible tactic.

892
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 2: That said, his home detention considered incarceration. He could be yes,

893
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 2: it could be sure, that's still incarceration if you can't

894
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 2: leave your house, right, Well, does that have to be prison?

895
00:44:50,120 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 15: No, it doesn't have to be prison. Probation could be

896
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 15: just being supervised. It could be home incarceration, it could

897
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:57,840
Speaker 15: be prison. There's a scale, it's it's graded based on

898
00:44:57,880 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 15: those factors.

899
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 2: That I so when he sits down with his probation officer.

900
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:02,799
Speaker 2: We talked about this for a minute last week to

901
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 2: think of. You know, these are the moments he's going

902
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 2: to have to endure, whether there's jail or not. How

903
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:11,359
Speaker 2: important is that interview in the outcome here?

904
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 15: Boy, you know you want to cooperate. You want to

905
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 15: cooperate with your probation officer because between now and sentencing,

906
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 15: he's got to meet with this person. The probation officer

907
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 15: prepares what it's called a pre sentence report that takes

908
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 15: into account the different things we talked about, including contrition

909
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:29,920
Speaker 15: and if he's as resolute and defiant as he's been

910
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:32,200
Speaker 15: and as he likely will be at the sentencing hearing,

911
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 15: I can't fathom he falls on his sword at the

912
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:35,720
Speaker 15: sentencing hearing he says, you know what, Mia.

913
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:37,880
Speaker 4: Kulpa, my fault. Give me a break, Judge.

914
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 15: It could be a bad day made worse on account

915
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:42,880
Speaker 15: of his attitude from verdict through sentencing.

916
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 9: What can he do, or.

917
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:48,399
Speaker 8: More specifically, what is Trump not allowed to do now

918
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 8: that he's a convicted but not yet sentence fell in.

919
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 9: Are there limits on the things that he can do,

920
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:55,760
Speaker 9: the ways that he can conduct himself.

921
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:58,719
Speaker 15: Well, the limit that remains in place is the gag order.

922
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 15: He's still subject to it because the court still his

923
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 15: jurisdiction over this matter. So what's important to keep in

924
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 15: mind is that the gag order applies to the jurors,

925
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 15: and it applies to court personnel. It doesn't apply to

926
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:11,319
Speaker 15: the judge, which is why he was able to say

927
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:14,000
Speaker 15: what he did. That said is going to work against

928
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:17,239
Speaker 15: him come sentencing time. If I'm the judge, I think

929
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:20,320
Speaker 15: it might because judges are human. I mean they're affected

930
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 15: by and subject to the same sorts of whims and

931
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:24,799
Speaker 15: attitudes that the rest of us are.

932
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:26,360
Speaker 4: Somebody gets all over your case in.

933
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,239
Speaker 15: Charge of deciding their fate, you're going to hold it

934
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:31,880
Speaker 15: into account and take it into account.

935
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:36,960
Speaker 2: What will his probation officer require of him beyond that meeting,

936
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 2: that interview, Will there'll be multiple meetings between now and

937
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:43,439
Speaker 2: July eleventh? Wi' Donald Trump's lifestyle be impacted in any way?

938
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 4: Well, it shouldn't be impacted.

939
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 15: In fact, A question I often here is is he

940
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 15: restricted from travel?

941
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:48,400
Speaker 4: He's not.

942
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:51,399
Speaker 15: That could change if Judge Marshan doesn't like what he hears.

943
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 15: The judge is always able to change the contours of

944
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 15: the time between the verdict and the sentencing.

945
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:58,520
Speaker 4: But for now, he's got to meet with a probation officer.

946
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:01,879
Speaker 15: He's got to part diticipate in the preparation of the

947
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,440
Speaker 15: pre sentence report. His lawyers are going to prepare motions

948
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 15: suggesting a modest sentence at the same time as the

949
00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:13,280
Speaker 15: prosecutions lawyers are going to prepare motions proposing a harsher sentence.

950
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 15: It all goes into the total mix and Judge Marshaan

951
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 15: will decide what the sentence is going to be on

952
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:18,719
Speaker 15: July eleventh.

953
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:21,279
Speaker 2: I have one quick question. You might not have the

954
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 2: answer to this, but there's some confusion over whether Donald Trump,

955
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:29,360
Speaker 2: as a convicted felon, could vote for himself and in Florida.

956
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 2: Apparently the rule allows, and I was just looking at this.

957
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:38,759
Speaker 2: It allows the person to abide by the state in

958
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 2: which they were convicted. So Donald Trump, because New York

959
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,560
Speaker 2: is more liberal in this case, could vote for himself

960
00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:48,920
Speaker 2: in Florida because this case was in New York. Is

961
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 2: that how you understand it?

962
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:51,840
Speaker 4: That's absolutely right. You took the answer. We had to

963
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:56,040
Speaker 4: switch chairs. Doubt that there's reciprocity.

964
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 15: Involved in this process. So that if you're convicted in Florida,

965
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 15: I beg you part. If you're convicted in New York.

966
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 15: Yet you're a Florida resident. If you can vote as

967
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 15: a non jailed felon in Florida, which you can, ye,

968
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:12,760
Speaker 15: that rule transfers to New York and he can vote.

969
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:14,920
Speaker 15: I had that backwards and transfers to Florida.

970
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 4: Vote Florida, right.

971
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 9: Non jailed is the key there.

972
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:22,759
Speaker 8: He ultimately is jailed, then perhaps the vote ability goes away.

973
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:23,239
Speaker 4: That's right.

974
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:26,280
Speaker 15: If you're jailed, that's a problem. If you're not in jail,

975
00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:28,280
Speaker 15: then you still have the right to vote in Florida.

976
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 2: This is really important, Killy. That means we're going to

977
00:48:30,120 --> 00:48:32,520
Speaker 2: see the cameras follow him into a voting booth at

978
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 2: some point, or I guess he's going to probably vote

979
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:37,359
Speaker 2: in advance, but we'll do so in the state of Florida.

980
00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:39,440
Speaker 4: Unless that is jailed, which is still a possibility.

981
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:42,000
Speaker 8: Which is a possibility, and we'll find out on July eleven.

982
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 8: There's another case we want to ask you about, Danny,

983
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:47,879
Speaker 8: and the trial in fact began today. Hunter Biden, the

984
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 8: son of President Biden, is on trial in Delaware. Jury

985
00:48:51,719 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 8: selection underway today for three criminal counts allegedly buying a

986
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:59,040
Speaker 8: gun and lying about his addiction to crack Coat Kane,

987
00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 8: have you looked at this case? How strong is this

988
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:03,719
Speaker 8: case that was brought against it? Do you expect that

989
00:49:03,760 --> 00:49:06,279
Speaker 8: it will be easy for the prosecution to ultimately end

990
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 8: up with a conviction here.

991
00:49:07,200 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 4: I have looked at it.

992
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:09,959
Speaker 15: I think it's a strong case, and I think Hunter

993
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:13,400
Speaker 15: Biden's goose is cooked. The issue is did he knowingly

994
00:49:13,480 --> 00:49:16,880
Speaker 15: purchase a firearm while an abuser or user of a

995
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:20,400
Speaker 15: controlled substance? He was an abuser and a user. He

996
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 15: bought the gun in twenty nineteen. He was already an

997
00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:26,080
Speaker 15: abuser and user, as chronicled in his memoir Beautiful Things

998
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 15: and on his laptop.

999
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:28,359
Speaker 4: Everyone knows it.

1000
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:33,839
Speaker 15: That's why in defense, his team of lawyers is going

1001
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 15: to say, hey, listen, he needs to have thought he

1002
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 15: was an abuser and user and he thought he was clean.

1003
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:41,359
Speaker 15: It's a subjective standard prosecution. I'll say, no, it's not.

1004
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 15: It's an objective standard. We all know what we see.

1005
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 4: He got to be convicted. That's where all the action

1006
00:49:46,080 --> 00:49:46,799
Speaker 4: and traction will be.

1007
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:49,359
Speaker 2: In that trial. Recalling there was a plea deal at

1008
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 2: one point. I didn't live for very long. No, I'm

1009
00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 2: assuming that's not going to happen again.

1010
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 4: Oh No, that ship is saled.

1011
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:57,520
Speaker 15: What happened with the plea deal was that it was

1012
00:49:57,560 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 15: going to be a plea for two misdemeanor taxi defenses,

1013
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 15: two years of probation, toss up the felony gun charge.

1014
00:50:03,840 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 15: Under rigorous questioning by Judge Norika, both sides confessed that

1015
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:10,919
Speaker 15: they didn't really understand each other.

1016
00:50:11,000 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 4: They didn't have a meeting of the minds.

1017
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 15: As a concern the plea deal, she said, go back,

1018
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 15: do more briefing, come back with a better deal that

1019
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:20,479
Speaker 15: makes consistent sense. And by then the Biden team said,

1020
00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:22,279
Speaker 15: you know, forget about it. We're just going to stick

1021
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:23,640
Speaker 15: to it and not take the play.

1022
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:26,839
Speaker 8: Okay, So you don't see high prospects for another plea

1023
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 8: deal coming out of this. You do, though, see a

1024
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 8: high prospect for conviction if you think his goose is cooked.

1025
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 8: The DOJ says, the maximum sentence for these crimes is

1026
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:36,560
Speaker 8: twenty five years in prison. Will we see the president's

1027
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:39,080
Speaker 8: son be spending time behind bars?

1028
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:42,040
Speaker 15: It's possible, because you'll remember, as it concerns Trump, the

1029
00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 15: judge concern considers priors age, the gravity of the offense.

1030
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:53,520
Speaker 15: Those weren't aren't real factors in the Trump space. They

1031
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:55,840
Speaker 15: are in the Biden space because he's a known abuser.

1032
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 15: He's a user, He's had his share of problems. Those

1033
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:01,719
Speaker 15: could enter into the mix of the judge considers come

1034
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:04,440
Speaker 15: sentencing because she's exclusively going to decide the sentence, like

1035
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 15: Judge Marshawn is exclusively deciding his sentence. Will it be

1036
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 15: twenty five years for a kind of a nothing never

1037
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 15: mind defense? I tend to doubt it. It's pretty low stakes,

1038
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 15: but you know what, those are factors that she's easily

1039
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:15,840
Speaker 15: going to consider.

1040
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 2: We talk about priors, and the fact that Donald Trump

1041
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 2: does not have one is going to play into his sentencing.

1042
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 2: I think you've indicated if there is, in fact a

1043
00:51:24,719 --> 00:51:28,280
Speaker 2: January sixth trial, if the Supreme Court rules Jack Smith's

1044
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 2: trial takes place, is that New York case now a prior?

1045
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 2: Suddenly for Donald Trump?

1046
00:51:33,160 --> 00:51:36,280
Speaker 15: It is under Rule six h nine of the Federal

1047
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:41,280
Speaker 15: Rules of Evidence, past conduct related to lying and untruthfulness,

1048
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:44,400
Speaker 15: like felony convictions, is admissible in evidence. It's not admissible

1049
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:47,759
Speaker 15: to prove guilt. It's admissible to impeach. So that's definitely

1050
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 15: this New York case. It's definitely going to come in

1051
00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:53,759
Speaker 15: to the other federal cases and perhaps even the state

1052
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:55,839
Speaker 15: case in Georgia if it ever gets back on.

1053
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:59,040
Speaker 8: Track, well, if is the operative word there, not just

1054
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 8: in Georgia, but here in Washington and Florida in the

1055
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:04,799
Speaker 8: document's case as well. Realistically, even if we were to

1056
00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:07,240
Speaker 8: get a decision today from the Supreme Court on presidential

1057
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 8: immunity that allowed the judge here, Tanya Chuck can to

1058
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:13,920
Speaker 8: set a trial date, can that realistically happen and complete

1059
00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:14,920
Speaker 8: before the election?

1060
00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:16,200
Speaker 9: Or are we running out of time here?

1061
00:52:16,200 --> 00:52:16,399
Speaker 1: Why?

1062
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:18,520
Speaker 15: These judges can do whatever they'd like. If she wants

1063
00:52:18,560 --> 00:52:20,759
Speaker 15: to fast track it, she'll fast track it. If she

1064
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:24,279
Speaker 15: thinks it can't can feasibly be done, she won't. If

1065
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:27,279
Speaker 15: she fast tracks it, the Trump team can throw out

1066
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 15: more delays. I mean, that's their playbook. They delay and

1067
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:33,359
Speaker 15: delay and delay. And that's why this case in New

1068
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 15: York took so long and resolves so close to the convention,

1069
00:52:37,480 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 15: because his team tried to delay it and was successful

1070
00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 15: in delaying it. So anything could happen. Do I realistically

1071
00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:44,960
Speaker 15: think it'll get tried before the election?

1072
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:47,120
Speaker 2: Now I don't. I've got to ask you about Donald

1073
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:50,799
Speaker 2: Trump's message to the Supreme Court over the weekend as

1074
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:55,359
Speaker 2: we anticipate sentencing, he wants the High Court to get

1075
00:52:55,400 --> 00:52:58,880
Speaker 2: involved with a message online on truth social quote. The

1076
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:01,719
Speaker 2: sentencing for not having done anything wrong will be conveniently

1077
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:05,400
Speaker 2: for the fascist four days before the RNC he talks

1078
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:08,839
Speaker 2: about in this case, the Soros back da as we've

1079
00:53:08,840 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 2: seen before, highly conflicted ending with the United States Supreme

1080
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:15,719
Speaker 2: Court in all caps must decide.

1081
00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:18,000
Speaker 4: No, it mustn't decide.

1082
00:53:18,080 --> 00:53:19,360
Speaker 2: Okay, that's not how it works.

1083
00:53:19,880 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 15: The next step, which is the step they're involved in,

1084
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:25,400
Speaker 15: is to go to the appellate Court. If that loses,

1085
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 15: they go to the Court of Appeals in New York,

1086
00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:29,279
Speaker 15: which is the New York Supreme Court. They call it

1087
00:53:29,280 --> 00:53:30,960
Speaker 15: the Court of Appeals in New York, which is contrary

1088
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:33,919
Speaker 15: to what we hear in other states. If Trump loses there,

1089
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 15: he could petition for sir cherari. It's called to the

1090
00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:39,240
Speaker 15: US Supreme Court. Will the Supreme Court take this case?

1091
00:53:39,600 --> 00:53:41,759
Speaker 15: They don't tend to take these types of cases, but

1092
00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:44,439
Speaker 15: considering it involves Trump and they've taken every other Trump case,

1093
00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:46,399
Speaker 15: they might take it. It is not that they must

1094
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 15: take it. They might take it.

1095
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:50,239
Speaker 8: How long would it take, though, to go through all

1096
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 8: of those other courts before it would reach the Supreme Court.

1097
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:53,960
Speaker 9: What timeline reach?

1098
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:56,120
Speaker 15: That's three levels. We're talking easily here. A couple of

1099
00:53:56,200 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 15: years takes.

1100
00:53:56,960 --> 00:54:00,160
Speaker 8: Forever, Okay, So not something that would be resolved by

1101
00:54:00,239 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 8: election time or even inauguration.

1102
00:54:01,640 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 7: Time, not even close.

1103
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 2: Danny, thank you for coming to talk to a pleasure.

1104
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:07,759
Speaker 2: Come see us again soon. I think we're going to

1105
00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 2: have more to talk about Kaylee between now and July eleventh.

1106
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:12,040
Speaker 10: Yep.

1107
00:54:12,640 --> 00:54:14,399
Speaker 2: I still can't get over the idea of that meeting

1108
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:16,439
Speaker 2: with the probation officer. I feel like that's the next

1109
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:19,080
Speaker 2: stop on the road, whatever figuring out of the future

1110
00:54:19,080 --> 00:54:23,640
Speaker 2: of this story is. Thanks for listening to the Balance

1111
00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:27,280
Speaker 2: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,

1112
00:54:27,320 --> 00:54:30,640
Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and

1113
00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

1114
00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 2: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.